These game previews typically focus on advantages for both teams. There are very few times when the talent gap is so large that it would be disingenuous to present the game as anything but a mismatch. This is one of those times.

Of course, the Commanders could rise up and win this game. They are 0-2 and fighting for their season at home with a very good coach who can motivate with the best of them. If that happens, though, it will be because of a lot of unlikely things occurred, not because they are the better team. Take a look at the numbers and decide for yourself.

Lineup Notes

The first injury report had Sam Darnold as limited. It seems like he has a real shot to play, but Seattle has already shown they can win with Drew Lock. Anthony Bradford going to IR means more Beau Stephens and Christian Haynes. Nick Emmanwori should be a full go for the first time.

The Commanders could be without their best guard in Sam Cosmi (concussion), and are already without their left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. Keep an eye on DT Javon Kinlaw, who did not practice Wednesday and is a key part of their run defense. The big absence is QB Jayden Daniels, who was hurt last weekend.

Team Overview

There is not much for the Commanders to hang their hats on when comparing the teams holistically.

Styles Make Fights

Seattle and Brian Fleury boast the top play action passing offense in the NFL. They have yet to throw an incomplete pass on play action. They are also best in under center. The outside zone run game has worked well.

Washington’s offense changes with Daniels out. A significant part of their run game was from their quarterback. They are, however, the top inside zone team in the league so far. That might change without Cosmi.

Seahawks Offense vs Commanders Defense

Overview

Yikes. The Seahawks offense has not been super efficient, but the Commanders defense has been so bad, they make Seattle look like a juggernaut.

Passing game

The passing game, in particular, enjoys a huge advantage over the Commanders. The secondary has some real holes, and the pass rush has not been good enough to cover them up.

Receiving game

Run game

The Commanders run defense has been pretty good, but losing Kinlaw would hurt them in that area. Jadarian Price was injured against the Cardinals. We will see what his availability will be as the week progresses. Emanuel Wilson could see a larger load.

Commanders key advantages on defense

The run defense can be their biggest advantage. There are some decent edge rushers, but nobody dominant.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

The passing game is the biggest gap. It has to be keeping the Commanders coaches up at night trying to figure out to handle the Seahawks receiving corps.

Commanders Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Here we are again. This is the best defense in football going against an offense that was struggling with their playmaker at quarterback. It feels bleak without their starter there and potentially without their best interior lineman.

Pass game

The Commanders give up a lot of pressure, but Daniels has been adept at avoiding sacks. Mariota is agile as well, but this is a tough spot.

Receiving game

Stefon Diggs has 3 TDs already. Both Josh Jobe and Devon Witherspoon have fared well against him in past matchups. Terry McLaurin missed the game last season and is a big play threat. Seattle has just shut down everyone through the air so far.

Running game

These numbers are again aided by Daniel’s legs. He was responsible for 100 of their 314 rushing yards on the year. Seattle is incredibly tough to run the ball against.

Commanders key advantages on offense

Mariota can create with his feet at times and is an accurate passer. The receiving corps has some solid route runners.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Seattle arguably has an advantage at every position on the field when the Commanders are on offense.

Special Teams

The Commanders do not bring a great special teams unit to the party either.

Key to a Commanders win

They need some explosive plays through the air and some turnovers and a Seahawks team that comes out slow and never turns it on.

Key to a Seahawks win

Play with intensity and focus. They really just need to bring the energy they do every week, and the talent disparity should be enough to even make up for some mistakes.

One of two things happens to teams after they win a championship. Some become self-satisfied and splinter into individuals chasing notoriety and fortune. Others ascend to this higher plane of existence, where they enter each game with an air of inevitability. They know they are going to win. Their opponents know they are going to win. It does not matter if calls go against them, or starters are injured, or they fall behind. This Seahawks squad has youthful and experienced talent. They have elite coaching and rare continuity. They are mature and vicious. They no longer believe they are the best. They know it. It is a recipe worthy of a Michelin Star, even if the taste is bitter for the rest of the NFL.

Drew Lock was a backup quarterback only in name on this Sunday. He prepared all week to be the starter, and then put together one of the cleanest games from a Seahawks starter in some time. He finished 19/26 and that included three dropped passes. He threw three touchdowns without an interception, and never put the ball in harm’s way. The only sack came on a hail mary attempt at the end of the first half.

The collection of throws he made in this game belong next to any throw by any quarterback in the NFL this week. There were passes threaded between three defenders. There were fadeaway first downs off his back foot with a blitzer in his chest. There were patient deep bombs that allowed silver surfers to blow by their defenders.

You can certain there were fans of opposing teams watching this game with the hope that the plucky 1-0 Arizona Cardinals would be able to take advantage of Lock at quarterback and send the Seahawks reeling. Imagine how deflating it must have been to watch him outplay their own starters.

Lock was better than Justin Herbert this week. He was better than Caleb Williams. He was better than Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix.

Your only hope as a Seattle opponent is to hold down the Seahawks offense. This was a discouraging game on that front for a variety of reasons.

Lock was excellent as the starter. The offensive line once again looked like it has taken a step forward, even with a starter missing for them as well. The run game was slow to start, but it ultimately did not matter as the passing game was highly efficient and the rushing attack eventually gained steam. Seattle was already without Zach Charbonnet, and the lost Jadarian Price to an injury. No matter. Emanuel Wilson was excellent in his place. Nick Emmanwori barely played. Tory Horton Jr. had just a few snaps and no targets. The tight ends had barely any production. Seattle had just 7 points at halftime.

They won by 24 points. On the road.

What tales must you tell yourself to believe you have a shot to beat this Seahawks team? This is not even the best version of what this team can be.

Brian Fleury now has two games of play calling experience. As good as Lock was in this game, Darnold has consistently been the better player in practice this offseason. Rodney Thomas II has been very good at safety. Ty Okada easily won the starting job and will return from a hamstring injury soon. Emmanwori will get his feet under him. Charbonnet will return, possibly as soon as Week 5.

This defense has been outstanding. It can be better. Seattle has not pressured the quarterback well so far. They rank 18th in pressure rate, after finishing 6th last season. That will need to improve against elite quarterbacks.

They have flourished in spite of mediocre pass rush due to exceptional coverage and tackling. Josh Jobe, Nehemiah Pritchett, and Devon Witherspoon have been terrific. Julian Love has looked like an All-Pro.

Mike Macdonald came out with a conservative game plan. The Seahawks blitzed on only 4.7% of the Cardinals dropbacks in the first half. That is a low number, even for Macdonald. That changed immediately in the second half. Macdonald called blitzes on 50% of Arizona dropbacks in the second half. Seattle ended the game with a 19.3% blitz rate.

Brissett and the Cardinals pass attack had 16 net passing yards after halftime. They had 44 total yards in that half, and 18 of them came on a garbage time run on the second-to-last play of the game.

It was suffocating. They have room to get even better. Macdonald said as much in the postgame press conference.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is so good, so consistently, that his excellence almost becomes an afterthought. Having 155 yards receiving and 3 TDs is nasty work. Doing it with the array of routes and plays he made is what makes him the best receiver in the game, and maybe the best player.

It felt like the rout was on early when he glided to an 82-yard touchdown. That play stood alone for some time before he added a second, and then a third. His concentration and strong hands make contested catches feel anything but a 50/50 proposition. He is athletic enough to sprint past a defender, savvy enough to disguise his routes, and physical enough to be comfortable with contact.

The offense will be better when Rashid Shaheed and Cooper Kupp and Tory Horton Jr. and AJ Barner and Elijah Arroyo start to emerge. They are each capable of more, but it is easy to understand why every quarterback that plays for Seattle favors Smith-Njigba.

Shaheed was featured more in this game, and had mixed results. His drop early was one he surely wants back. It was a miraculous play by Lock.

The game plan was different this week, but one thing is already emerging about Fleury. Seattle has the lowest rate of 11 personnel (3 WRs) in the NFL through two weeks (32.2%). Last week, that was a ton of two tight end sets. This week, he had Nick Kallerup active and used 13 personnel (3 TEs) on 22% of their plays.

He is making heavy TE usage a staple of the offense so far. That will make it harder for WRs (outside of JSN) to get as many snaps and targets.

We will see what comes of the Beau Stephens and Christian Haynes split at right guard if Anthony Bradford misses more time. Both players had good moments on Sunday. Haynes had the better overall game, but it speaks volumes that John Benton and the coaching staff wanted to get the rookie on the field this early.

Seattle heads to Washington D.C. this week to face a Commanders team that just lost their starting quarterback. Macdonald hinted that Darnold has a chance to be back for this game. This game proved they do not need to rush anyone to return. This team can beat your starters with their backups. They can make you tap out on your home field. They are running it forward, and you are in their path.

An injured Sam Darnold and a stabilized Cardinals roster coming off a rousing road win over the heralded Los Angeles Chargers, makes this a game both teams come in believing they can win. The talent gap is considerable, though, and some injuries at the wrong position for Arizona could push this back into a longshot.

The best part of this Seahawks team is their interior defensive line. The Cardinals have already lost 2nd-round pick, Chase Bisontis, to injury and were missing the presumed starter, Isaiah Adams, in week one. Newly signed starting guard, Isaac Seumalo, did not practice on Wednesday, raising doubts about his availability. Part of what held Jacoby Brissett and this offense back in 2025 was the amount of sacks he took. Seattle got him five times, including two strip sacks returned for touchdowns, when they played. He was sacked just once for a loss of zero yards against the Chargers.

Brissett is a credible professional quarterback. He is not mobile. Even if their best guards were playing, the Seahawks defensive tackle rotation and Mike Macdonald’s mind might be too much too handle. Being down to deep reserves could make for a rough go.

The Seahawks need to find a rhythm that was missing on offense in their first game. It was understandable that things were stagnant for a while after the shock of losing their starting quarterback in the first series. That is no longer an excuse. This Seattle offensive line showed signs of being a mismatch themselves.

Unlike the Legion of Boom, who’s best players were mostly off the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, this Seahawks squad is built from the trenches out. That is not to say they are without excellence away from the line of scrimmage, but their foundation is on the offensive and defensive lines.

Teams with those strengths tend to be more resilient and consistent. Arizona is still in the process of identifying their foundation. The departure of mercurial quarterback, Kyler Murray, gives them a chance to find the players worth building around. Expect a spirited effort from the Cardinals. Expect the Seahawks to play a style that will be difficult to match.

Programming note: Tale of the Tape relies on data from the season to preview games. Week 2 means we have only a one game sample size. They tell us less about the teams now than they will in a few weeks. You will also notice far more data than has been provided in past years. Thanks to the folks at FTNFantasy.com and SumerSports for providing access to a deeper set of insights for me to explore and provide to you.

Lineup Notes

The first injury reports came out Wednesday and the absence of Seumalo certainly will spark concern in Arizona. Hayden Connor would take over in that situation. He is a 2025 6th round pick who played 29 snaps as a rookie. It is not clear if Garrett Williams will make it back for this game, but he has been one of the best nickel corners in football when healthy. Denzel Burke has taken slot corner snaps in his absence.

For Seattle, Nick Emmanwori was listed as limited for practice. Tory Horton Jr. was a full go. Emmanwori looms large in every game, but his availability to match up with Trey McBride would be a boon for the Seahawks. Ty Okada likely misses this game, but Rodney Thomas II played well in his debut.

Team Overview

Seattle starts the year with the top turnover differential in the NFL, which is where they ended last season. They have gone five straight games without turning the ball over. They have won 11 straight games, tying a franchise record. Arizona shows up here as a team that has a very strong first week.

Styles Make Fights

This is a new section this season where we look at the offensive styles of both squads to see how they like to attack opponents.

The Seahawks ran play action the 2nd-most often in the NFL (as a percentage of dropbacks) in week one. They were the 2nd-most efficient when doing so. Arizona was 27th in the NFL at defending it. That is one to watch.

Arizona was 1st in the NFL in defending outside zone running plays. Seattle was 1st in the NFL in percentage of runs that were outside zone.

Those two items will loom large in this game.

Arizona lives in shotgun, where many offenses are moving back under center. They are not a heavy play action team. Their running game is varied. Sean McVay moved the Rams to be a more man/power scheme a few years ago. LeFleur is still figuring out which style of run game will be their bedrock. Rookie running back Jeremiyah Love will contribute to that decision with how he plays.

Seattle remains one of the best run defenses in the NFL, no matter which style their opponent uses.

Seahawks Offense vs Cardinals Defense

Overview

Seattle will need to possess the ball more with sustained drives in this game. Their passing offense was propped up by one big pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba on 4th and 1, and one big pass to Cooper Kupp. Neither was a repeatable, reliable way to move the ball. Arizona was stingy against the Chargers.

Passing game

DVOA was not super impressed by the Cardinals pass defense.Seattle ranked low in pressure rate allowed, but their time to pressure was 8th. That indicates the pressure was not as much about pass protection, or their use of play action created longer-developing plays.

Abe Lucas had a rough game against the Patriots. He needs to be better.

Seattle relied heavily on two tight end sets (12 personnel). It was their most used personnel group, which is rare. Nearly every team has 11 personnel (3 WRs) as their most common grouping. We will find out of that was opponent-specific as time goes on. Seattle getting Horton Jr. back could shift some things, and finding ways to get Rashid Shaheed more involved will impact personnel as well.

Arizona struggled to defend 12 personnel versus the Chargers and excelled against 11 personnel. That could lead to more of the same deployment for Seattle this week.

When the Seahawks passed against base defense in week one, they were the most efficient passing team in the NFL.

Receiving game

Seattle struggled versus man coverage and the Cardinals performed well there. The screen game was not used much by Seattle. Jadarian Price can be a weapon there. Arizona struggling against out routes is notable given how much the Seahawks like to throw that pass.

Run game

It is surprising to see how poorly the Seahawks run game measured out statistically. It felt far more encouraging than the numbers would indicate. Arizona had a terrific day stuffing the run, and Roy Lopez was a big part of that. As good as the Seahawks were passing against base defense versus the Patriots, they were dead last in the NFL when trying to run against it.

That will make for an interesting decision for Brian Fleury, as 12 personnel is more likely to result in Arizona playing base defense.

Cardinals key advantages on defense

This is good, young, cornerback room that can be sticky in coverage, especially when Williams is on the field. Budda Baker is still a quality safety, and Mack Wilson Sr. can be disruptive as a blitzer from the linebacker spot. Lopez is a rugged run defender. Walter Nolan Jr. is an athletic interior player, who can get after the quarterback. Josh Sweat can be threat as an edge rusher when he’s motivated.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

JSN remains a cheat code against any defense. At some point, we will see Shaheed emerge as a key concern for defenses as well. Horton Jr. is such a promising player, but it’s not even clear how he gets on the field. It should be noted that he has more reps with Drew Lock than any other receiver. They have chemistry. The Cardinals do not have an intimidating pass rush. If Seattle can create push in the run game, they could put up some points.

Cardinals Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

Arizona benefitted from a blocked punt that gave them the ball at the 3-yard line for one of their touchdown “drives.” Otherwise, they were a competent offense that moved the ball reasonably well without being very explosive.

They are a heavy 3 WR team, and did well with that personnel package. They brought the 13 personnel package over from Los Angeles, but did not get good results from it.

Pass game

Seattle did not allow an explosive pass in the first game. Brissett is a quarterback who completes a lot of passes, but does not threaten deep very often. They struggled against base defense in LA, but did well against extra defensive backs. Seattle did not defend the pass well out of base.

The biggest thing here is pass protection. Brissett was sacked a ton last season and was only sacked once in week one.

Receiving game

Kendrick Bourne was a big part of the passing attack, with 8 catches in 8 targets. He has not fared well against this Seahawks defense before. McBride is the one to watch. He has had productive days against the Seahawks, even if not during wins. Michael Wilson got paid this offseason and finished strong with Brissett. He has been locked up by Josh Jobe and Devon Witherspoon.

Wilson has 4 catches for 41 yards in 79 reps against that cornerback duo since 2024.

Running game

Arizona is counting on their new backfield to take pressure off the passing attack. Tyler Allegier and Love are talented backs who have the potential be one of the most dynamic duos in the NFL. Allegier is an excellent pass protector as well as a bully in the run game. Love can do it all.

They face arguably the best run defense in football.

Cardinals key advantages on offense

Love is compared at times to Bijan Robinson in terms of talent. Seattle held up well against Robinson in Atlanta last year, but that was with a lot more tape on who he is as a runner and receiver. The newness of LeFleur provides a little edge, but Leonard Williams has already noted familiar aspects of the McVay offense. McBride almost always gets his. Paris Johnson Jr. is a very good left tackle. The rest of the line has some work to do against a dynamic Seattle front. Marvin Harrison Jr. has size that can give a player like Witherspoon some problems.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

The interior defensive line for Seattle could take over this game. Seattle corners played mostly great football against the Patriots and have good history against these receivers.

Special Teams

A good start for the Seahawks special teams unit.

Key to a Cardinals win

They need to force turnovers and hold the Seahawks offense under 20 points.

Key to a Seahawks win

Early down offense will be a big part of this one. Getting into advantageous 2nd down situations could lead to the big plays they will need to score points. They will need to pass protect better than they did against the Patriots as well.

Space is limited. Get your tickets before they’re sold out!

The formula has proven to be a pretty accurate predictor of success, but I am always looking for ways to improve it.

I have been writing that line for years. This offseason I finally went and did it.

After a two-year hiatus, the HB Power Rankings are back, they have a permanent home at stats.hawkblogger.com, and every open question I have raised in a rankings post over the last decade now has an answer with evidence behind it.

What the rankings used to be

For anyone who has not seen one of these before, here is the formula I have been running since roughly forever:

(Rush EPA offense + Passer Rating offense + Avg Points Scored) minus (Rush EPA defense + Opponent Passer Rating defense + Avg Points Allowed), times strength of schedule

Three things you do, minus the same three things you allow, adjusted for who you played. Passing weighted more heavily than running. It worked. Roughly 70% of the teams sitting in the Top 10 after Week 3 made the playoffs, which is better than most of the gut feel lists you will read on a Tuesday.

But I never knew if the weights were right. I picked them. They were reasonable, and reasonable is not the same as correct.

Now the weights had to earn their spots

I tested the formula against every season back to 2015. The method is simple: rate all 32 teams through a given week, then check how well those ratings predicted the margin of every game those teams had left. Change one weight, run it again, see if it got better or worse.

Some of what came back was reassuring. When I swapped Yards Per Carry out for Rush EPA in 2024, I wrote that it might take a while to find the right weighting. Turns out the weight I picked on instinct was the peak. I tested it at zero, half, double and triple, and my original guess won. I will take it.

Some of it was less flattering. I dropped each of the three pieces in turn to see which was carrying the load, half expecting points per game to be doing all the work. It was not. Take out any one of the three and the rankings get measurably worse. All three earn their keep.

And one piece had to go.

Passer rating cannot see a sack

This bothered me for a long time and I never did anything about it.

Passer rating is completions, yards, touchdowns and interceptions per attempt. A third and eight strip sack is not an attempt. It does not appear. One of the single most damaging plays in football is invisible to the metric I was using to measure passing.

So the rankings now use adjusted net yards per attempt instead, which counts sacks and the yardage they cost. It sits on the same scale, so nothing else in the formula had to move. It made the rankings better at predicting games, and more importantly it made them honest about pass protection.

The strength of schedule problem I wrote about and then ignored

In the 2024 Week 1 rankings I wrote:

SOS itself will gain efficacy as the season goes on, which is why most rankings do not use it this early.

And then I applied it from Week 1 anyway, because I thought everyone else was being lazy.

They were not. I was wrong, and the backtest is blunt about it. Adjusting for strength of schedule at full weight in Week 2 makes the rankings worse than not adjusting at all. It is not close. By Week 12 it is clearly better. The reason is obvious once you say it out loud: adjusting for your opponent means adjusting based on how good you currently think that opponent is, and in September nobody knows anything.

So the schedule adjustment now starts at zero and climbs to full weight by Week 10. The dial turns up as the league learns who it is.

The New Orleans problem

Also from that 2024 post:

New Orleans played an awful Panthers team, but blew them out by such a large margin that the rankings are not going to be able to compensate.

That was me describing a flaw and shrugging at it. Two things fix it now.

First, ratings shrink toward the middle when there is not much to go on. A 2-0 team does not get to be a fifteen point favorite in September just because it beat somebody 44-10. The spread widens as the season earns it.

Second, the early weeks lean on how last season finished. About a third of the rating in Week 2, gone entirely by Week 9. That was the single biggest accuracy improvement of everything I tried, and it is the reason I no longer have to write my other recurring disclaimer, which was that these rankings are worth ignoring until after Week 3. Week 1 means something now.

You can see both at work today. Seattle sits second after one game, and that is last season’s Super Bowl run doing some of the lifting, plus a defense that held Drake Maye to 1.47 adjusted net yards per attempt. The 13 points on offense are keeping them out of the top spot. The board can hold all three of those thoughts at once.

The number finally means something

The old rankings spat out a Team Strength figure. Tampa at -39.7. Houston at -53.5. I would quote those numbers in posts and you would nod along, but neither of us could tell you what -39.7 actually was.

Now the rating is points per game against an average team on a neutral field. That is it. A +7 team beats a -3 team by about ten on neutral turf. Add roughly two points if they are home.

Which means my own favorite rule of thumb now reads straight off the board. I have written many times that scoring ten more points per game than your opponent is the mark of a genuine contender. You no longer have to go find that number. It is the number.

It is a page now, not a Tuesday post

This is the part I am most pleased with.

The rankings are no longer something I publish when I get to it. They update every day during the season, usually by early morning Pacific, once the previous night’s play by play has posted.

There is a week selector across the top. Click any week and the board rebuilds exactly as it stood at that moment. You can walk the whole season forward and watch the tiers form. You can go back through previous seasons the same way.

Miguel left a comment on the Week 3 rankings in 2024 asking for a column showing the previous week’s ranking so you could see what moved. Sorry it took two years, Miguel. There is a movement column now, and every team has a small chart tracking where its rating has been all season.

Two more pages came with it

Team Check is the deep dive. Pick any team and you get 60 metrics, offense on the left, defense on the right, the difference between them down the middle, all ranked against the other 31. Filter by any week range you want. Full season, first half, last four, or a custom stretch you type in. There are tabs for situational splits, personnel groupings, and a head to head matchup view.

Team Grid plots any two team metrics against each other for all 32 teams at once. There are 57 metrics to pick from. Dashed lines mark the league average on each axis, which carves the league into quadrants, and better is always to the right and up no matter which direction the raw number runs. You can spotlight a team and watch the rest fade back, and you can download the whole chart as an image. If you want to win an argument with a picture instead of a paragraph, that now takes about four seconds.

What it still cannot do

This is not a betting model and I want to be clear about that. Across the last decade, the difference between two teams’ ratings predicts game margins at a correlation of about .34. The Vegas line does about .48. The market is better at this than I am and it is not remotely close.

It does not know your left tackle is out. It does not know the weather. It does not filter garbage time yet, which is the next thing on my list.

What it does is take the same public play by play everybody can see and turn it into a ranking that will tell you exactly why it thinks what it thinks. Every weight in it had to beat the alternatives to get there.

That sentence at the bottom of every rankings post is still true. I am still looking for ways to improve it. But for the first time, when somebody asks me why a team is seventh instead of fourteenth, I can actually answer.

stats.hawkblogger.com

Go Hawks!

-Brian

The day started with sunny skies, flashy custom Seahawks gear, and easy smiles. It ended under the lights, with toes tapping, and breathless victory. The smiles disappeared after an injury knocked Sam Darnold out of the game following the first drive, and the team fell behind by 10 points. The returned when Brian Fleury made a gutsy fourth down play call, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba reminded the world just how special he is. A final Patriots drive appeared destined to send the game into overtime before an ill-advised pass from Drake Maye settled into the hands of Josh Jobe, who managed to dot both sets of toes in the endzone for a game-sealing interception. Welcome to Seattle, Khosla family. You just bought a lifetime of agony and ecstasy.

History echoed through the stadium before the first snap as the team shared a video commemorating the breadth of experiences under the ownership of Paul and Jody Allen before turning attention to the Super Bowl run from last year. Kam Chancellor was on the mic when the Super Bowl LX banner was unveiled. Richard Sherman stood atop the Toyota Fan Deck to raise the 12 flag.

Moments later, Sam Darnold was limping off the field. The likeable leader of the offense took a sack on 3rd down that included all of the defender’s weight driving Darnold’s knee into the hard turf, which apparently jolted his hip. Initial speculation was a possible hip fracture, which would have not only season implications, but career and life implications.

Macdonald provided what he initially called “great news,” before pulling back to, “good news,” that a hip fracture had been ruled out, and that Darnold was undergoing additional tests to see the extent of the injury. Seattle should know more today.

Last night, that left the game in the hands of backup, Drew Lock. The same Drew Lock who has thrown 28 interceptions in his career, and had only one season where his touchdown total was at least two more than his interception total, all the way back in his rookie season (2019).

Seattle was already entering this game with a rookie play caller, a rookie running back, and facing a team eager to erase the pain of the Super Bowl. Lock’s propensity to turn the ball over made finding a path to victory daunting.

The only way the Seahawks walked away with a win was because Lock was able to avoid a turnover for just the 12th time in 29 career games where he attempted at least 20 passes. That allowed Seattle to extend a streak where to five games of turnover-free football. Macdonald has still yet to lose a game where his team has zero turnovers.

Seattle has now matched a franchise record with 11 straight wins, dating back to Week 12 of last year, and including the playoffs. It is no coincidence that they are number one in the NFL in turnover margin over that stretch.

Turnover margin is about taking the ball away as much as it is about protecting it. The injured and fresh-faced secondary took center stage. Nick Emmanwori was inactive for this game. Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant play for other teams now. Jobe re-signed as a free agent, but remains unheralded, even among the Seahawks fanbase. Ty Okada missed the game with a hamstring injury. Second round safety, Bud Clark, was lost for the season with a broken ankle during the preseason.

In step Nehemiah Pritchett and Rodney Thomas II as the latest obscure players to elevate their game in Macdonald’s defense. It was Thomas who made a break on a pass from Maye and tipped it enough to allow Pritchett to tip it to himself for an interception. The game turned on that play.

Seattle turned that turnover into a touchdown, and the defense finished the game with 3 straight drives ending in picks. This was the first time since at least 1999 the Seahawks defense had ended a game with three straight interceptions (data before 1999 is not available, so it’s possible this is the first time in franchise history). The last time they had three straight interceptions at any point in a game was last season against Max Brosmer and the Minnesota Vikings. The last time the Patriots had three straight drives ending in an interception was 2001, when Tom Brady had 4 picks in the fourth quarter against the Broncos. It was a remarkable finishing flourish that reminded everyone to never underestimate this Seahawks team.

Mixed in-between the interceptions was a crucial play call from Fleury on 4th and 1. The run game had been reasonably effective most of the day, but had been stuffed on 3rd and 1 at the Patriots 45-yard line. Fans wanted to see the Barnyard tush push. It was a long yard, and Macdonald typically avoids using that play on longer distances. A run still seemed a good bet given the injury at QB and the scuffling pass game.

Fleury made a call the belied his inexperience by drawing up a play action pass that found Smith-Njigba wide open a few yards down field. Smith-Njigba took in the pass and weaved his way through the Patriots defense for what became a 45-yard touchdown. Roughly 40 yards of that were after the catch. Add his ability to create after the catch to the list of aspects of his game that are underappreciated across the NFL.

Fleury’s overall game was difficult to assess. Week one is always challenging for new and experienced coaches. There is very little to go on in terms of tendencies for opponents, and the starters have had no live game reps in the preseason. Then, the starting quarterback leaves. Separating what this game said about Fleury and what it said about the circumstances is messy.

I liked the way the run game looked. Jadarian Price seems like the perfect fit for this scheme, and will command more snaps as the team gets further into the season. Keep in mind he never started a game in college and had no preseason snaps. The team does not want to burn him out early.

There were several terrific edge blocks from A.J. Barner and the tight ends. The offensive line seemed to get push and create seams and gaps for the backs to exploit. They did not get many chunk plays on the ground, but were regularly getting 4+ yards.

One sequence that stood out to me was on the game-winning drive, when they started with a run to the right with Price that gained four yards, and then ran what looked like the same run play in the same direction, but it was a play action pass to Barner for 9 yards and a first down. That ability to get a defense to pay attention to one thing, but do another, is one of the most fundamental parts of being a good play caller. Formation, personnel, motion can all look identical, and you need to call the play one way enough for the counter to be effective.

The biggest problems came in the red zone. Seattle had several operational issues that led to penalties, and cost them points. We won’t know how much of that was due to the Fleury being late getting plays called or the backup quarterback or the first game of the season. What we do know is that red zone operation needs to be much cleaner.

This was a vastly different game to what the Seahawks played in week one last year against the 49ers, but parallels are undeniable. The defense forced a heralded quarterback into costly mistakes, only to allow him a chance to win the game in the end. Only this time, the Seahawks corner made the play to seal the game, and their offense avoided costly turnovers on their side.

The 2026 season is underway. The 2025 season is over. What remains is a Seahawks team that wins, and sits atop the NFC West. The road ahead will be winding, but the men driving and occupying the bus know how to navigate what obstacles appear in front of them. The new owners may not want to look out the windows. It can be a harrowing journey.

Seattle comes into this game dealing with some key injuries in the secondary, and will face one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL from a year ago with what should be an improved offensive line and clearly better receiving corps. The combination of where Seattle is injured and where New England made the most offseason improvements could lead to a very different game than what we witnessed in Levi’s Stadium just seven months ago.

That game was not close, though, so the Patriots will need more than a strong passing attack to get a different result. Seattle has reason to believe they are a better team than the one that played in February. Their young offensive line has a full season together and returns with the same line coach. The receiving corps has had a full offseason Rashid Shaheed in the mix, and what appears to be a resurgent Cooper Kupp. The defensive line that wrecked the Patriots looks better and deeper. As unhappy as the Patriots were with the way they played, Sam Darnold and the offense felt they left a lot of points on the table as well.

Games played in week one are notoriously hard to prognosticate and commonly misleading. Both of these teams suffered a loss in week one last season and did pretty well. One of them will start the season with another loss. The advantages point in Seattle’s direction. New England has to be not only better, they need Seattle to be quite a bit worse.

Programming note: Tale of the Tape relies on data from the season to preview games. Week 1 provides a challenge without any current season data to reference. What you will see in this article is 2025 data. Most of it will include playoff data. You will also notice far more data than has been provided in past years. Thanks to the folks at FTNFantasy.com and SumerSports for providing access to a deeper set of insights for me to mine and provide to you.

Lineup Notes

Final injury reports are due out later today. The expectation is Seattle will be without starting safety Ty Okada and do-it-all defender, Nick Emmanwori. They will likely also be without receiver Tory Horton. That will mean large roles for new faces like Rodney Thomas at safety and possibly AJ Finley or D’Anthony Bell. We should also expect to see more three linebacker packages for the Seahawks with Tyrice Knight earning reps. Zach Charbonnet remains on PUP, and will be out at least the first four games.

The Patriots will likely be without explosive running back TreVeyon Henderson. Although, he did travel with the team. Big defensive tackle Christian Barmore practiced fully on Monday and should be expected to play. Harold Landry led the team in sacks last season and starts the year on PUP, so he is out.

Team Overview

The Seahawks were the best team in football last year. The Patriots were better than most gave them credit for. One of the numbers here that merits attention is the Seahawks finishing 7th in turnover differential after a turnover-free playoff run. That, after being 27th in the NFL in TO margin through eleven weeks. How they protect the football will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this game.

Styles Make Fights

This is a new section this season where we look at the offensive styles of both squads to see how they like to attack opponents.

The Seahawks were the 2nd-best play action team in the NFL last year. One thing to watch is whether tempo is something they lean on more. They went no huddle only 7% of the time (17th in the NFL), but were 4th in EPA/play when they did it. Use of shotgun versus under center is another thing to monitor as Brian Fleury enters as the new offensive coordinator. Kyle Shanahan ran a lot more shotgun in San Francisco, where Fleury learned a lot. Darnold is one of the best QBs from under center in the league. We will see if Fleury leans into Darnold’s strength, or has ideas about how to utilize shotgun more effectively.

It is worth noting the Patriots defense struggled to defend inside zone runs last season. New running backs Jadarian Price and Emanuel Wilson could be well positioned to exploit that weakness if it still exists.

The Patriots were one of the most efficient pass games in the league last year. They did not use motion that often (24th), but were deadly when they did (5th in EPA). One of the only places where the Pats had an advantage was in the screen game, but they were 31st in the NFL in screen rate, and the possible absence of Henderson likely reduces that further.

Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense

Overview

Turnovers is the big one. The Patriots defense bowed up quite a bit in the playoffs and people seem to forget Seattle struggled to get in the endzone until the fourth quarter. These numbers give an indication of why that was a tighter battle.

Something to monitor will be how Fleury utilizes personnel packages. Seattle was 30th in 11 personnel (3 WRs) last year, and were middling in efficiency. The presence of Shaheed could change that. New England was great at defending 11 personnel last year. Two tight end sets (12 personnel) were the bread-and-butter of the Seahawks last year. We will see if that continues with a new play caller.

Passing game

DVOA did not like the Patriots pass defense. They were excellent at killing explosive passes. That showed up in the Super Bowl. Their inability to put pressure on the passer was their downfall, and it does not appear they are in much better shape to do that this season.

Seattle ate base defense alive. The Patriots struggled whenever they went base. Whether Fleury can force New England into base is a big storyline in this one. Fleury also likes having two backs (21 personnel). Look for a number of different players to line up in the backfield outside of the typical running back and fullback.

Receiving game

It was misleading last year to see the Patriots ranking so poorly in defending WR1s via DVOA. That is not how the game played out and Christian Gonzalez was fantastic in that one. But it is fair to wonder if the rest of the Pats secondary is ready to handle the Seattle receiving corps. The screen game will look different without Kenneth Walker III. Look for Price to get his opportunities.

Run game

The Seahawks run game was highly inefficient most of the season. Many believe Walker got on a hot streak. The alternative explanation is that the team fired their RB coach late in the year and the whole running back room improved after that, along with maturing of the offensive line. This game will help sort out which was true. The addition of Dre’Mont Jones at edge for the Patriots could bolster a lackluster run defense that really hurt them in that game.

Patriots key advantages on defense

Milton Williams and Barmore are still a handful inside. New England’s tendency to blitz can create turnovers. Gonzalez is an elite cover corner. Those are legitimate strengths they will need to leverage to slow down Seattle.

Seahawks key advantages on offense

Price and Wilson are relative unknowns for the Patriots (and to Seahawks fans). Fleury is a wildcard. How Shaheed will be utilized will look much different than a year ago. How Fleury uses motion, particularly on run plays is something to keep an eye on. There could be some big gains on the ground. If Seattle can be effective running the football, it will be hard for the Patriots to repeat their stingy start to the Super Bowl. If Darnold connects on a couple of the throws he missed in that one, Seattle could put up a lot of points.

Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense

Overview

The Patriots offense slowed considerably in the playoffs, dragging down some of these numbers. Their turnovers ballooned with 8 giveaways in the postseason. They used a lot of 21 personnel and got a new fullback this season in Reggie Gilliam. He is a battering ram that could help create some more space.

Escape rate is a new stat I will be monitoring this season that basically tells the story at how good offenses are at turning obvious passing situations (e.g., 2nd and 8+) into non-obvious pass situations (e.g., 3rd and less than 5). Teams that are good at this, tend to be some of the most potent offenses in the sport. New England was quite good at this last year.

Pass game

This was an area of advantage for the Patriots when the Seahawks were fully healthy and had Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant on the squad. There is little doubt the pass defense of Seattle will be tested early and often. The Patriots pass protection was problematic at times. They have added a new starting left guard and moved on from a struggling center. Seattle will need their pass rush to be effective in order to cover up a banged up secondary.

Receiving game

The addition of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs at WR makes this a vastly more talented group than what Seattle faced in February.

Running game

The Patriots lack of run game was a problem in the Super Bowl, and very well could be a problem again in this one.

Patriots key advantages on offense

Brown has a size advantage over the Seahawks corners. He is a totally different coverage challenge than Stefon Diggs. Doubs is a savvy route runner who can help keep the chains moving. Drake Maye was the MVP runner-up, but fell down to earth in the playoffs. He can create with his feet as well, which can be an even bigger issue in week one, when defenses have not been tackling to the ground or hitting QBs all summer. Seattle is unlikely to be able to sit in nickel and stop the run the same way they did when Emmanwori was available. The injury to Okada exacerbates that further. If New England can protect Maye, they could put up big numbers.

Seahawks key advantages on defense

Mike Macdonald dominated this matchup with Josh McDaniels. He dissected the Patriots protections and had Maye running for his life all afternoon. Rylie Mills had a monstrous sack and is now a key part of the deeper rotation at defensive tackle. Byron Murphy II is primed for an even bigger season, and he had two sacks against New England last time. Derick Hall just got a new deal and is eager to build off the two sacks he had in that game. Seattle needs those guys to wreak havoc to help their secondary.

Special Teams

Jason Myers was a record setter in the Super Bowl. He has been shaky in the preseason. You have to wonder where his confidence is heading into this one. The Seahawks were a far better special teams unit last year. It is not clear if Shaheed will be used as a returner this season. That is something to keep an eye on.

Key to a Patriots win

It really comes down to pass protection for New England. They can score points if Maye is provided some time. Even then, they will likely also need to win the turnover battle to walk out with a victory.

Key to a Seahawks win

Run the football and rush the passer. Do those two things and Seattle wins this game.

Preseason is a liar. Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks certainly hope so. Their preseason was full of penalties (35 for 290 yards in 3 games), and empty in the win column for the first time since Macdonald took over in Seattle. The decision to rest starters throughout helped preserve some health. Time will tell if it creates a sluggish start. Macdonald’s postgame press conference sounded like someone trying to convince himself that what he witnessed in practice mattered more than what he has seen in the games. Preseason may be a liar, but every coach would gladly take quality play and happy victories over the dropped passes, porous run defense, ineffective run offense, operational issues, and paltry scoring, that Seattle put on film in these games. Games that count start in just over a week. The truth of this team will soon be on full display.

Resting starters provided ample opportunity for players lower on the depth chart to step forward and make their case for more playing time when the games count. Few took advantage of that opportunity. There were some flashes, but no player put together a preseason that should leave anyone begging for them to get on the field.

That is not to say everyone played poorly. The bar is very high to earn snaps on this team. Tyrice Knight showed what that looks like in the first game, and was given the rest of the preseason off. Nobody else reached that level.

Players who had good, if not great, preseasons included:

• Edge Jamie Sheriff
• Edge Connor O’Toole
• Guard Bryce Cabeldue
• WR Montorie Foster Jr.
• WR Emmanuel Henderson Jr.
• LB Chazz Surratt
• S D’Anthony Bell
• CB Nehemiah Pritchett
• CB Michael Dansby
• TE Elijah Arroyo

Jalen Milroe may have worked his name onto that list with a quality performance against the Chiefs, just days removed from a disappointing game against the Titans. The player that just about every Seahawks fan and analyst decided was hopeless, threw a touchdown, did not turn the ball over, and had a 101.9 rating while leading the team to what should have been a game-winning drive.

His decision making was better. He needs to get even faster through his progressions, but this was undeniable progress. Some of the throws he made were impressive, especially the ones when he had pressure in his face and still delivered. Drops and penalties cost him what could have been a great performance.

Going from the college system he ran to this under center, play-action, pro-style offense is going to take time. If the team needed him to be ready right now, it would have been a foolish pick. They don’t. He remains a lottery ticket with a couple of matching numbers and a few spaces still to scratch off before tossing the ticket in the trash.

Henderson Jr. was the splashiest player in this one, especially for fans who have not been able to see him in practice. He has a nice collection of tools, including terrific speed and functional athleticism. Plenty of straight line runners do not have the body control to go up and makes plays in the air, or avoid tacklers after the catch. Henderson Jr. has all of that and some sneaky physicality to his game as well. He has been on the bubble for my roster projections throughout the preseason, and he certainly put his best foot forward in this one.

Pritchett had one of his better games. He had multiple pass breakups and was sticky in coverage all night. It feels like his prior history with the team and his solid play through preseason has pushed him ahead of Noah Igbinoghene.

Complicating matters was the new face of Trevon Diggs, who got his first snaps as a Seahawk and walked away with an interception. Don’t be surprised if Diggs pushes his way into the lineup as soon as week one. Whether that says more about the state of the Seahawks cornerback depth or the resurgent talent of Diggs will be clear soon enough.

There has to be at least a little indigestion in the VMAC about where things stand with the team. On one hand, you look at all the players who helped you win a Super Bowl last year that will run through the tunnel and feel confident about the quality of this team. On the other hand, the only time you saw those players face quality opposing competition was in a joint practice against the lowly Titans, and the results were mixed at best. You also still have questions about the availability of Nick Emmanwori, Zach Charbonnet, Tory Horton Jr., Emmanuel Wilson, and possibly a few more. Your rookie class might be essentially one player, who was a backup in college that you are not counting on to be a starter.

This is not doom and gloom. Seattle has a roster full of talent and coaching staff built to optimize any player they work with. It is a reality check that not everything has gone exactly as one might have hoped to this point.

Every player who outperforms expectations provides a little more buffer through the rigors of a season. Every player who you lose to injury or who fails to meet their potential leaves a little less room for error. Few people knew Ty Okada or Drake Thomas or Josh Jobe would play such large roles in the 2025 season a week before the first game. That might be Diggs or Terrion Arnold or Julian Neal or Bryce Cabeldue this year. Whoever it is, has concealed themselves well to this point.

The truth is the Seahawks would have been 2-1 in the preseason if Jason Myers made his extra points and field goals. This is not about the record as much as the quality and crispness of play.

Best case scenario is that the Seahawks are a worse roster from 71-91 than they were a year ago, but stronger from 1-70. That feels plausible with how much of the sloppy play has come from players who will not be on the roster or the practice squad.

Week one is a trust fall every season. Even the best teams in franchise history have struggled in week one. Two of the four teams that made the Super Bowl lost in week one, and another barely survived a game in Carolina. The one Super Bowl team that thrived in the first game was the 2014 squad, coming off a championship the year before. They walloped the Green Bay Packers 36-16. Of course, they did lose the next week to the Chargers and started the season 3-3, so trying to predict any of this is silly.

What Seahawks fans can feel confident in is their head coach holding the bar high and grinding every day to help the team clear it. The players in the locker room know what it takes. Their desired destination remains the same even if they walk a different path to get there.

Irony has many faces. It can be playful. It can be thought-provoking. It can be cruel. Each made an appearance on the first Sunday football game of the Seahawks 2026 season. Tennessee Titans defensive tackle, Jeffrey Simmons, loudly boasted about his team’s performance in the joint practice with the Seahawks on Friday. He then got planted in the ground in this game by third string Seahawks guard, Christian Haynes. A Seahawks team that has yet to play its starters, entered this game with questions about its depth, dominated the Titans starters for most of the first half in this game. The cruelty came in watching parts of that depth leave Nashville with major injuries.

Mike Macdonald had to be pleased with how his team responded to both a lifeless loss to the Cowboys last weekend, and a mixed bag at the joint practice on Friday. Coaches used to coordinate how they would handle preseason games in terms of starter snaps and how aggressive they would be in terms of blitzing. That has faded as more teams prioritize joint practices, preseason games are fewer, and cuts happen once instead of three times.

Robert Saleh elected to play his starters on offense and defense for much of the first half. To say the Seahawks played their backups would be inaccurate. Take the edge position. The Seattle starters might be DeMarcus Lawrence and Derick Hall. Their backups would be Uchenna Nwosu and Dante Fowler Jr. None of those four players has played a snap in preseason. That means the Seahawks were running out fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth string edge players against the Titans first string offensive line.

You could say similar things about numerous other positions, including inside linebacker, where Ernest Jones, Drake Thomas, Tyrice Knight, and Patrick O’Connell did not play. Or running back, where Jadarian Price, George Holani, and Emmanuel Wilson did not play.

Judging a team’s performance in that kind of tilted matchup usually requires grading on a curve. You want to see effort and physicality and execution. Ideally, there are a few plays or a few players who flash and demonstrate their ability to go toe-to-toe with an NFL starter.

The Seahawks made it much more simple. They went up 16-3 in the first quarter, notching explosive plays on offense and punishing hits on defense. Drew Lock did not throw in an incompletion until his 11th pass. Running back Jacardia Wright still hasn’t been touched on his 69-yard touchdown run straight through the Titans defense. Chris Paul Jr., D’Anthony Bell, and Chazz Surratt may have just leveled another Titans player.

Finding a player to highlight other than Knight was challenging against the Cowboys. Far more stood out in this one. Paul Jr. had his best game in a Seahawks uniform at inside linebacker. He made a number of plays in the backfield, including a key fourth down stop. Surratt, the other off-ball linebacker, was flying around the field as well.

An edge group that did little to impact the passer last week, showed far more juice in this one. Connor O’Toole was credited with 6 pressures, 1.5 sacks, and 2 tackles for loss. Jamie Sheriff got his first preseason action, and got right back to sackalicious ways. He wound up with the team-best PFF grade of 87.9.

Defensive tackle J.R. Singleton was all over the field, and wound up leading the team in tackles with ten. That is absurd for a defensive lineman.

D’Anthony Bell delivered a number of big hits. Although, he also missed one key tackle. Nehemiah Pritchett had a terrific tackle for loss as he continues to make the case that he should get reps as the third corner.

Rookie corner Michael Dansby was terrific in coverage and physical in run support. Fellow rookie corner, Andre Fuller, had a nice game as well.

Starters had a better showing on the sideline this week as well. There was more to cheer for, and they were making their presence felt.

All the good energy stopped when rookie safety Bud Clark suffered a gruesome ankle injury. An air cast was applied and he was carted off the field. Macdonald confirmed a broken ankle after the game that will keep Clark out “months.” The Seahawks may choose to put him on injured reserve, which would end his season. It might be possible they hold out hope he can return later in the year.

Guard Mason Richman was also lost to what Macdonald called a, “major injury.” He walked off the field under his own power, but never returned to the game. His loss saps depth on the interior offensive line and limits the Seahawks flexibility to trade or release players like Haynes and Olu Oluwatimi. Both played well in this one.

Richman was one of the players who stood out the most in this training camp. He was more stout in pass protection and was showing real potential as a center. Bryce Cabeldue came in and had a very nice game. This also creates more opportunity for rookie Beau Stephens.

The loss in this trip that matters was not on the scoreboard. Three players who were going to be on the 53-man roster were likely lost for the season. None of those players were starters or guys expected to get significant snaps, but each were worthy of a spot on a very good team.

There are a number of options at safety to now keep an eye on. Ty Okada had already cemented his hold on the starting safety spot alongside Julian Love. Clark was often the next safety in the rotation. AJ Finley, Bell, Maxen Hook, and Rodney Thomas III all will be considered for that role now.

Clark had not separated himself in practice to this point. His standing in the depth chart felt as much about his draft status as a second round pick as about his performance. Finley could be the guy who benefits the most, which would be another form of cruel irony. It was Finley who went down for the season last year during the Seahawks Fan Fest at Lumen Field.

He is smart and gifted. The team and coaches like him. Thomas is another one to watch. He is a veteran who was showing signs of starting to adjust to the scheme. He is currently out after surgery on a broken hand, but that is not considered a long-term issue.

The other notable part of this game was the play of Jalen Milroe. He provided plenty of ammunition to those who have already made up their minds about the young quarterback. His two interceptions were bad decisions and bad process. They overshadowed some really nice moments, including a scramble on 2nd and 14 for a first down and a 24-yard completion on 2nd and 20 for a first down to Montorie Foster Jr. He also had a nice bootleg toss to Ricky White for a big gain that got called back for an offensive pass interference.

There were two penalties on his first possession. Two more on his third. Another on his fourth. The run game was nonexistent. It was not ideal conditions. None of that excuses the poor choices he made on the interceptions or taking a sack on 4th down for the second week in a row.

Making good decisions is arguably a more important skill than having a gifted arm for NFL quarterbacks. Milroe has looked very much like a developmental player with a lot of development left before a team could feel comfortable playing him in a game.

He will be written off by fans, which is fine. I do not expect the team to feel the same way. He will sit and learn for another season. The odds of him turning into a starting quality quarterback before the end of his rookie deal are lowering. What many fail to understand is that even if those odds are low, the payoff is too large to give up on him after one season.

Milroe had a very long way to go from the player he was in college and the scheme he played in. He still has a long way to go, even if that distance has closed more than people realize.

It is also too early to be talking about a position switch. The team will exhaust his reps at quarterback before giving up and looking for other ways to use his skills.

Seattle leaves Nashville with the first losing preseason record of Macdonald’s tenure, for as much or as little as that matters. Their play to start the game was encouraging not just because it came against the Titans starters, but because it showed Macdonald, this coaching staff, and these players, can bounce back from such a poor effort in one week. The injuries sting. Seattle plays another game in a few days, going from Sunday to Friday. They will have to travel to Kansas City for that one, leaving them with an even shorter week of practice.

They are seven days away from making cuts to their 53-man roster. Much is left to be decided. This game was one the team can build on.

Mike Macdonald wants to run it forward. The 2026 Seahawks may want to practice doing that on the field if they hope to do it this season. No matter the caveats one can offer about preseason football, this 17-7 loss the Dallas Cowboys was a performance that was below the standard that Macdonald and his players have set. The locker room talks about, “no drop off,” when starters leave the field. If what Seattle put on the field Saturday was not a drop off from their starters, this will be a long season.

Chief among the disappointing performances was quarterback Jalen Milroe. He continues a perplexing start to his career that includes flashes in practice that have earned him more snaps with the second string and rotating with Drew Lock in this preseason game, with game play that looks like someone not ready to command an NFL offense.

Milroe is at his best when he is decisive and getting through his progressions with pace. His worst is a tentative player, who seems confused by what he sees, and chaotic when his reads are not open. We saw very few snaps that looked like the good version, and too many that looked like the bad one.

It is nice to see that he does not bail from the pocket and abandon plays early. It is less good that he is too late to escape pressure either with a dump off or a scramble. Waiting until a player is already on top of him limits the potential for positive outcomes.

He was not helped much by an offensive line that struggled, especially at tackle. Bobby Hart was signed before training camp, likely as a hedge against the health of Josh Jones who had missed all of OTAs and minicamp. Jones has been on the field throughout training camp. It’s time to move on from Hart. He is regularly beaten in practice and may get one of the QBs hurt in joint practice in Nashville or one of these remaining games. He has had a long career. It should not continue here.

There will be those who wonder if i have some sort of rose-colored glasses on when watching Milroe during practice given my positive practice reports on YouTube. I would wonder that if I was not experiencing it myself. The truth is I have no reason to build up a player who is not earning the praise given that would only hurt my credibility as an analyst. So if he is performing better in practice than he is in games for two straight preseasons, where does that leave us?

I have seen plenty of comments from people saying he should not take up a roster spot. That is a bridge too far. How many quarterbacks have to demonstrate that it can take years for the light to go on at that position before people realize it is a mistake to kick someone to the curb this early? Maybe Sam Darnold would have realized his potential earlier if he had a chance to sit and develop in New York. Maybe Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love and Patrick Mahomes would have struggled more had they been asked to excel immediately.

The quarterback spot is so massively valuable that it makes no sense to move on from a player who is demonstrating progress and productivity in practice while still having two more years on his rookie deal. He can safely sit behind Darnold and Drew Lock. Seattle has twelve picks in the draft next year. If they want to push Milroe, they can prioritize drafting another young quarterback to challenge him.

It is true the light may never switch on for Milroe, or the ceiling he hits will not be high enough to warrant a starting spot. This is not the time to make that call. The already high odds that Seattle will need to pay Darnold big money, though, are rising every time Milroe puts on a performance like this.

Tyrice Knight was almost the lone standout in this game for Seattle. He was everywhere. Most importantly, he excelled in pass defense. This is a player who was known for run defense coming out of school, but struggled at times to defense the pass. That is part of how Drake Thomas took over the top of the depth chart.

Knight had arguably the best reps of any player for either team in this one. The most stunning play came when he lined up outside the tackle on the right side of the line, only to drop out into match with a slot receiver. The pass came his direction and Knight expertly broke on the ball and knocked it down. It was a play any nickel corner would put in their highlight reel, let alone an inside linebacker.

That was just one of the many plays he made while on the field. He is doing more than having a strong camp. He is forcing his way onto the field, a la Coby Bryant in 2024.

Montorie Foster Jr. caught a touchdown pass and led the team in receptions, but he had a costly drop and penalty. Lock missed him on what could have been a long touchdown and missed another receiver who was wide open down the left hash for what would have been a 20+ yard gain.

The offense looked lifeless and overmatched. Whether that was Brian Fleury acclimating to calling plays in a game for the first time, or the team being overly cautious about what they put on film against a team they will play during the regular season, or the Cowboys depth actually being better, is not something we can know yet.

Macdonald was sharply critical of the operation on both sides of the ball after the game. He may have meant that exactly as stated. He also may have been protecting his new OC by equally weighting the criticism at the defense and offense.

Penalties plagued the Seahawks and stunted drives. The most egregious may have been the false start on tackle Logan Brown after the team decided to go for it on 4th and 3 near midfield. Those types of mistakes and lack of discipline stand out as being well below the standard Macdonald sets for his teams.

The game felt sloppy and uninspired overall, leading Macdonald to even bemoan the lack of sideline celebration penalties. There was not much to celebrate.

We saw one nice quarterback hit from Rylie Mills. There was very little pressure beyond that. A few pressures from linebackers or defensive backs were the most effective on the night. I did like what I saw from nose tackle Uso Seumalo on first blush. The run defense was not good, but his effort and movement at his size showed up in some penetrating plays.

Shemar Jean-Charles has been victimized throughout camp, and that continued in this game. We did not see much from rookie safety Bud Clark or AJ Finley.

Rookie guard Beau Stephens had a holding penalty that negated a nice play as did second year guard Mason Richman.

The biggest takeaway from this game will be that Macdonald is going to get after this team, coaches and players. He basically apologized to fans who paid money to come out to Lumen Field and watch. He will be questioning himself about whether he has missed something in messaging or preparation that led to this result. Some might wonder what the big deal is about a throwaway bad preseason game. When you have spent an offseason trying to determine how to sustain excellence and seemingly were doing it through months of practice, only to see what may be the team’s worst preseason performance under Macdonald, it merits some reflection.

Joint practice in Nashville later this week will be intense. The veterans in that locker room will reinforce and demonstrate what Seahawks football looks like. If there is a repeat next week of this performance, Hard Knocks will certainly be in for some colorful conversations off the field.