Risk prediction models for heart failure admissions in adults with congenital heart disease.

Int J Cardiol. 2020 Aug 14;:

Authors: Cohen S, Liu A, Wang F, Guo L, Brophy JM, Abrahamowicz M, Therrien J, Beauchesne LM, Bédard E, Grewal J, Khairy P, Oechslin E, Roche SL, Silversides CK, Muhll IFV, Marelli AJ

Abstract
BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is the leading cause of death in adult patients with congenital heart disease (ACHD). No risk prediction model exists for HF hospitalization (HFH) for ACHD patients. We aimed to develop a clinically relevant one-year risk prediction system to identify ACHD patients at high risk for HFH.
METHODS: Data source was the Quebec CHD Database. A retrospective cohort including all ACHD patients aged 18-64 (1995-2010) was constructed for assessing the cumulative risk of HFH adjusting for competing risk of death. To identify one-year predictors of incident HFH, multivariable logistic regressions were employed to a nested case-control sample of all ACHD patients aged 18-64 in 2009. The final model was used to create a risk score system based on adjusted odds ratios.
RESULTS: The cohort included 29,991 ACHD patients followed for 648,457 person-years. The cumulative HFH risk by age 65 was 12.58%. The case-control sample comprised 26,420 subjects, of whom 189 had HFHs. Significant one-year predictors were age ≥ 50, male sex, CHD lesion severity, recent 12-month HFH history, pulmonary arterial hypertension, chronic kidney disease, coronary artery disease, systemic arterial hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. The created risk score ranged from 0 to 19. The corresponding HFH risk rose rapidly beyond a score of 8. The risk scoring system demonstrated excellent prediction performance.
CONCLUSIONS: One eighth of ACHD population experienced HFH before age 65. Age, sex, CHD lesion severity, recent 12-month HFH history, and comorbidities constructed a risk prediction model that successfully identified patients at high risk for HFH.

PMID: 32798623 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

Prediction of heart failure hospitalizations based on the direct measurement of intrathoracic impedance.

ESC Heart Fail. 2020 Aug 13;:

Authors: Zile MR, Sharma V, Baicu CF, Koehler J, Tang AS

Abstract
AIMS: OptiVol fluid index was developed as a transthoracic impedance-based indicator of short-term risk for heart failure hospitalization (HFH). OptiVol is calculated as the accumulating difference between daily impedance (measured impedance) and long-term average impedance (reference impedance). Measured impedance alone was thought to have limited prognostic utility; however, measured impedance has the advantage of being simple, direct, and possibly additive to OptiVol fluid index in establishing long-term HFH risk. We tested the hypothesis that directly measured impedance has independent prognostic value in predicting long-term HFH risk and that changes in measured impedance result in a change in predicted long-term HFH risk.
METHODS AND RESULTS: A retrospective analysis of 1719 patients studied in PARTNERS-HF, FAST, and RAFT studies was performed. Baseline measured impedance was determined using daily values averaged over 1 month, from Month 6 to 7 post implant; change in measured impedance was determined from values averaged over 1 month, from Month 7 to 8 post implant compared with baseline. The predictive value of baseline measured impedance for HFHs was assessed beginning 7 months post implant. The predictive value of a change in measured impedance for a change in HFHs was assessed beginning 8 months post implant. Baseline measured impedance successfully predicted HFHs. For example, 3 year HFH rate for low baseline impedance < 70 Ω was 23%; for high baseline impedance ≥ 70 Ω was 15% (P < 0.001). Changes in measured impedance resulted in changes in predicted HFHs. For example, when a baseline impedance of ≥70 fell during follow-up to <70 Ω, the subsequent HFHs were 15% compared with 4% in patients with measured impedance that remained >70 Ω (P = 0.004). In addition, when baseline measured impedance fell during follow-up by >1%, 2%, or 3%, subsequent HFHs increased to 13%, 17%, or 18%, respectively. Finally, the prognostic value of measured impedance was additive to the prognostic value of the OptiVol fluid index.
CONCLUSIONS: Direct measurements of intrathoracic impedance using an implanted device can be used to stratify patients at varying risk of long-term HFH. These direct measurements of impedance have practical clinical appeal because they are simple, continuous, and ambulatory.

PMID: 32790059 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

Determinants of Survival in Older Adults With Congenital Heart Disease Newly Hospitalized for Heart Failure.

Circ Heart Fail. 2020 Aug;13(8):e006490

Authors: Wang F, Liu A, Brophy JM, Cohen S, Abrahamowicz M, Paradis G, Marelli A

Abstract
BACKGROUND: Nearly 90% of patients with adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) die after the age of 40 years, and heart failure (HF) is the most common cause of death. We aimed to characterize the association between an incident HF hospitalization (HFH) and mortality and to identify the predictors of 1-year postdischarge mortality after incident and repeated HFHs, respectively.
METHODS: Patients with ACHD aged ≥40 years between 2000 and 2010 were identified from the Québec CHD database. We conducted a propensity score-matched study to explore the association between an incident HFH and mortality. We performed Bayesian model averaging to identify the predictors of 1-year postdischarge mortality with a posterior probability ≥50% considered to be evidence of a significant association.
RESULTS: The mortality hazard ratio was high at 6.01 (95% CI, 4.02-10.72) within 1-year postdischarge, decreasing significantly but entering an elevated equilibrium until year 4 with a continued 3-fold increase in death. Kidney dysfunction (hazard ratio, 2.28 [95% credible interval, 1.59-3.28], posterior probability, 100.0%) and a history of ≥2 HFHs in the past 12 months (hazard ratio, 1.77 [95% credible interval, 1.18-2.66], posterior probability: 82.2%) were the most robust predictors of 1-year mortality after incident and repeated HFHs, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: In patients with ACHD aged ≥40 years, incident HFH was associated with high mortality risk at 1 year, declining but remaining elevated for 4 years. Kidney dysfunction was a potent predictor of 1-year mortality risk after incident HFHs. Repeated HFHs further increased mortality risk. These observations should inform early risk-tailored health services interventions for monitoring and prevention of HF and its associated complications in older patients with ACHD.

PMID: 32673500 [PubMed - in process]

Pulmonary artery pressure-guided therapy in ambulatory patients with symptomatic heart failure: the CardioMEMS European Monitoring Study for Heart Failure (MEMS-HF).

Eur J Heart Fail. 2020 Jun 27;:

Authors: Angermann CE, Assmus B, Anker SD, Asselbergs FW, Brachmann J, Brett ME, Brugts JJ, Ertl G, Ginn G, Hilker L, Koehler F, Rosenkranz S, Zhou Q, Adamson PB, Böhm M, MEMS-HF Investigators

Abstract
AIMS: Heart failure (HF) leads to repeat hospitalisations and reduces the duration and quality of life. Pulmonary artery pressure (PAP)-guided HF management using the CardioMEMS™ HF system was shown to be safe and reduce HF hospitalisation (HFH) rates in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class III patients. However, these findings have not been replicated in health systems outside the United States. Therefore, the CardioMEMS European Monitoring Study for Heart Failure (MEMS-HF) evaluated the safety, feasibility, and performance of this device in Germany, The Netherlands, and Ireland.
METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 234 NYHA class III patients (68 ± 11 years, 22% female, ≥1 HFH in the preceding year) from 31 centres were implanted with a CardioMEMS sensor and underwent PAP-guided HF management. One-year rates of freedom from device- or system-related complications and from sensor failure (co-primary outcomes) were 98.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 95.8-100.0] and 99.6% (95% CI 97.6-100.0), respectively. Survival rate was 86.2%. For the 12 months post- vs. pre-implant, HFHs decreased by 62% (0.60 vs. 1.55 events/patient-year; hazard ratio 0.38, 95% CI 0.31-0.48; P < 0.0001). After 12 months, mean PAP decreased by 5.1 ± 7.4 mmHg, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) overall/clinical summary scores increased from 47.0 ± 24.0/51.2 ± 24.8 to 60.5 ± 24.3/62.4 ± 24.1 (P < 0.0001), and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire sum score improved from 8.7 ± 5.9 to 6.3 ± 5.1 (P < 0.0001).
CONCLUSION: Haemodynamic-guided HF management proved feasible and safe in the health systems of Germany, The Netherlands, and Ireland. Physician-directed treatment modifications based on remotely obtained PAP values were associated with fewer HFH, sustainable PAP decreases, marked KCCQ improvements, and remission of depressive symptoms.

PMID: 32592227 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]

Recurrent heart failure hospitalizations are associated with increased cardiovascular mortality in patients with heart failure in Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

ESC Heart Fail. 2020 Aug;7(4):1688-1699

Authors: Lahoz R, Fagan A, McSharry M, Proudfoot C, Corda S, Studer R

Abstract
AIMS: Heart failure (HF) is a leading cause of hospitalization and is associated with high morbidity and mortality post-diagnosis. Here, we examined the impact of recurrent HF hospitalization (HFH) on cardiovascular (CV) and all-cause mortality among HF patients.
METHODS AND RESULTS: Adult HF patients identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with a first (index) hospitalization due to HF recorded in the Hospital Episode Statistics data set from January 2010 to December 2014 were included. Patients were followed up until death or end of study (December 2017). CV mortality as primary and as any reported cause and all-cause mortality were evaluated. An extended Cox regression model was used for reporting adjusted relative CV mortality rates for time-dependent recurrent HFHs. Overall, 8603 HF patients with an index hospitalization were included, providing 15 964 patient-years of follow-up. Patients were relatively old (median age: 80 years) and were mostly male (54.6%), with main co-morbidities being hypertension and atrial fibrillation. Recurrent HFHs occurred one, two, three, and more than four times in 1561 (18.2%), 518 (6.02%), 206 (2.4%), and 153 (1.8%) patients, respectively. The median time to mortality was 215 (38-664) days for 50.8% of patients who died for any cause during the study period and 139 (27-531) days for 31.3% who died with CV reasons as primary cause. Compared with those of patients without recurrent HFHs, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for CV mortality as primary cause were 2.65 (2.35-2.99), 3.69 (3.06-4.43), 5.82 (4.48-7.58), and 5.95 (4.40-8.05) for those with one, two, three, and more than four recurrent HFHs.
CONCLUSIONS: There is a strong association between recurrent HFH and CV mortality, with the risk increasing progressively with each recurrent HFH.

PMID: 32383551 [PubMed - in process]

A Systems-Based Analysis of the CardioMEMS HF Sensor for Chronic Heart Failure Management.

Cardiol Res Pract. 2019;2019:7979830

Authors: Tran JS, Wolfson AM, O'Brien D, Yousefian O, Shavelle DM

Abstract
Background: Hemodynamic-guided therapy using the CardioMEMS™ system has been shown to reduce heart failure hospitalization (HFH) in both clinical trials and real-world settings. However, the CardioMEMS system requires input from multiple independent elements to achieve its effect, and no studies have been done to investigate those elements. Consistent patient participation and health care provider participation are two of those key elements, and this study sought to assess how they affect HFHs.
Methods: This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study of patients with the CardioMEMS sensor. The primary outcome was the number of HFH days patients experienced in the 1 year following CardioMEMS sensor implant. The primary independent variables were the average number of days between patient transmissions of data and the average number of days between health care provider reviews of those data. Covariates included patient demographics, medical comorbidities, history of HFHs, and initial pressure response to hemodynamic-guided therapy at 28 days after implant. Data were fit to a zero-inflated negative binomial regression.
Results: Seventy-eight patients were included in the study. The mean age was 64 ± 15 years, 52 (67%) were male, and 58 (76%) had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. During the study period, there were 538 cumulative HFH patient-days. Based on the regression model, there was an exponential relationship between HFH days and the mean number of days between patient transmissions (IRR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.09-2.75, p=0.019). There was also an exponential relationship between HFH days and the mean number of days between health care provider reviews (IRR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.013).
Conclusions: This single-center study suggests that more frequent patient transmissions and health care provider reviews of the CardioMEMS system are associated with a decreased number of HFH days, but larger multicentered studies are required. Further systems-based analyses of the CardioMEMS system may be a useful approach to guiding effective use of the CardioMEMS device.

PMID: 31396414 [PubMed]

The Relationship Between Heart-Failure Hospitalization and Mortality in Patients Receiving Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement.

Can J Cardiol. 2019 04;35(4):413-421

Authors: Nazzari H, Hawkins NM, Ezekowitz J, Lauck S, Ding L, Polderman J, Yu M, Boone RH, Cheung A, Ye J, Wood D, Webb J, Toma M

Abstract
BACKGROUND: Patients who have had transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) are at risk of hospitalization during the first year postprocedure. Few studies have examined the incidence of heart- failure hospitalizations (HFH) post-TAVR and the impact this has on subsequent hospitalizations and mortality. Our aim was to determine the incidence, predictors, and mortality associated with HFH post-TAVR.
METHODS: We used prospectively collected data for all patients who underwent TAVR between August 1, 2010, and March 31, 2015; 742 consecutive patients who underwent TAVR during the study period were included. Patients were followed for a minimum of 1 year post-TAVR.
RESULTS: Mean age was 80.9 ± 8.1, and 58.2% were men. Hospitalizations post-TAVR occurred in 20% of patients at 30 days and 59.7% at 1 year. Of patients hospitalized, HFH was the primary cause of hospitalization in 25.8% and 21.4% of patients at 30 days and 1 year post-TAVR, respectively. Patients with HFH at either 30 days or 1 year had higher subsequent rates of rehospitalization compared with patients who had non-HFH. Patients with HFH or non-HFH at 30 days had 1-year mortality rates of 23.1% and 21.4%, respectively, whereas those with HFH by 1 year had a higher 1-year rate of mortality compared with patients who had non-HFHs (25% vs 10.9%, P < 0.001).
CONCLUSIONS: HF accounts for a quarter of all hospitalizations post-TAVR and is associated with higher rates of subsequent rehospitalization and death compared with those who had non-HFH. Understanding predictors of readmissions post-TAVR will allow for better risk stratification and improve outcomes in patients receiving TAVR.

PMID: 30853134 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Shear wave elastography of the healing human patellar tendon following ACL reconstruction.

Knee. 2019 Mar;26(2):347-354

Authors: Gulledge CM, Baumer TG, Juliano L, Sweeney M, McGinnis M, Sherwood A, Moutzouros V, Bey MJ

Abstract
PURPOSE: Anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) ruptures are common and are frequently reconstructed using a patellar tendon (PT) autograft. Unfortunately, the time course of PT healing after ACL reconstruction is not particularly well understood. Thus, the primary objective of this study was to use shear wave elastography (SWE) to evaluate the extent to which shear wave speed (SWS) is associated with time after ACL reconstruction.
METHODS: Longitudinal SWE images were acquired from lateral, central, and medial regions of the PT from two groups: 30 patients who had undergone ACL reconstruction with a PT autograft within the preceding 40 months, and 30 age-matched asymptomatic control subjects. SWE images were acquired at 20° and 90° of passive flexion from both knees. In each subject group, statistical analyses assessed changes in mean SWS with time post-surgery, as well as differences in mean SWS between PT regions and limbs.
RESULTS: In the ACL reconstruction patients, mean SWS increased with time post-surgery in the lateral region of the involved knee (p = 0.025) and decreased with time post-surgery in the central region of the contralateral knee (p = 0.022).
CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that there is an association between the mechanical properties of the PT and time post-surgery in both the involved and contralateral limbs after ACL reconstruction. These changes are likely due to maturation of the donor site tissue and changes in gait/loading patterns following ACL rupture and reconstruction.
LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level II - Prospective Cohort.

PMID: 30638680 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Changes in Daily Measures of Blood Pressure and Heart Rate Improve Weight-Based Detection of Heart Failure Deterioration in Patients on Telemonitoring.

IEEE J Biomed Health Inform. 2019 05;23(3):1041-1048

Authors: Joshi R, Gyllensten IC

Abstract
Blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) are often captured in conjunction with weight in telemonitoring systems, but the additional prognostic potential of daily measurements of BP and HR in providing information on upcoming hospitalizations for worsening heart failure (HFH) have not been explored thoroughly. We retrospectively analyzed 267 daily home-telemonitored heart failure (HF) subjects. We extracted those episodes of HFHs that had sufficient data entries in the days leading up to hospitalization and tested the prognostic potential of 48 trend features based on weight, systolic BP, diastolic BP, pulse pressure (PP), and HR with a Naïve Bayesian model. The single best-performing trend feature-with a cross-validated estimate of 0.64 for the area under the curve (AUC) with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.01-is based on a 2-day weight trend. The best multivariate feature set (cross-validated [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]) comprises of 2-day trend features based on weight, systolic BP, and HR. There were large variations in the weight trends preceding hospitalizations and weight change alone had a modest predictive ability. Readily interpretable features capturing trends in BP and HR provided additional prognostic information and can be used for improving classification.

PMID: 30028715 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]

Exosome Therapy for Stroke.

Stroke. 2018 05;49(5):1083-1090

Authors: Chen J, Chopp M

PMID: 29669873 [PubMed - indexed for MEDLINE]