Horn of Africa daily

Election 2010 Overview; Part 3: The Voter and "the Birtukan factor"

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 03:19:00 +0000

< Letter from Ethiopia Election 2010 Overview Part 3: The Voter and "the Birtukan factor" By Eskinder Nega | March 5, 2010
Here is the election from hell for the modern western pundit, journalist, commentator, politician and voter: an election without pre-election polling. Almost always halfheartedly dismissed by politicians, religiously studied by pundits and cited much too often by journalists, pre election polls gauge how voters are reacting to political parties and candidates in campaigns and what issues are important to them. Ever since the 1945 British elections, when the newly established subsidiary of Gallup accurately predicted a surprise Labor win over war-hero Winston Churchill, they have been generally accurate and indispensable .In short, no modern election should be without them. They are a legitimate and important source of information to voters, politicians, pundits and journalists alike.

But unlike the exhilarating 2005 elections, when the free press experimented with ingenuous polling, this year’s election, in perfect sync with its impassive tone (thanks to the election code of conduct, state media tells us) has yet to see its first poll. One reason is of course the absence of firms that are capable of conducting neutral scientific polls, but a second, much more important-- and menacing -- threat has more to do with its total absence: the recognition by the EPRDF that polls conducted as an election proceeds work in favor of the party in lead, generating momentum and jolting the vote of its supporters to a new level of consequence. This is no mere paranoia. Polls had boosted the moral of the opposition in 2005; and in a first for the EPRDF (the TPLF in particular), had badly demoralized its supporters.

Though we do not have polls to show us the preferences, leanings, differences and concerns of the Ethiopian voter, that does not necessarily preclude the mapping of voting patterns based on precedent, gender, ethnicity, income, etc., which are more often than not accurate.

The average Ethiopian voter is young; around 50 % of the electorate is under 30. The 18 to 24 age group by itself is more than 10 % of the voting public; but this is hardly surprising for a country whose median age is 17 barely years. It is the under-30 age group, conspicuously those between 15 and 25, that protested the election results in the streets in late 2005; and if there are to be street protests again this year, which is unlikely but not impossible, it will be this group again that will battle against the security forces. It is also the group that the EPRDF has invested most heavily on for the past four years; by and large through training schemes and public works programs. In addition to a newly constituted youth wing of the EPRDF, a youth organization funded by Ethio-Saudi billionaire Al-Amoudi, has been created to stir this group away from the opposition after the post-election riots, though its efforts have been hopelessly compromised by a series of debilitating scandals. Fortunately for the EPRDF, however, unlike 2005, when the urban youth openly identified itself with the CUD, that enthusiasm for party affiliation is visibly absent this year, the lack of patience for deciphering the complexities that led to the fallout between CUD leaders even more pronounced. But this is a volatile group; there is no certainty with it, and EPRDF has organized an elite strike force tasked to make sure, in the event of protests, that its control of the streets will be shorter than it was in 2005.

The great hyped hope of the EPRDF in Addis Ababa, which will inevitably be closely monitored by international observers, is the women vote this year.

Kebele cadres have been instructed to do everything to sway them, and many of them are opting for a career boost by delivering them.. Women are supposedly not paying much attention to the campaign, are less disenchanted than men, and are most likely undecided about whom to vote for. They are in effect the swing vote. It is also counting on between a fourth and a third of the city’s vote (calculating on the basis of the 2000 and 2005 election results), who will predictably come out in full force to vote come election day. This is the only section of the voting public that is thrilled about the election (EPRDF’s win is after all assured at the national level), is confident of its choice and is decidedly motivated by the opposition’s disarray.

EPRDF’s calculation is that with a split opposition, some of the women vote that went to the opposition in 2005, and a third of the vote that could be counted on, it will be viable in Addis.

But in all likelihood, the EPRDF is posed to lose the women vote in Addis because of what could be called “the Birtukan factor”. Many women speak sympathetically about the plight of Bitukan Medeksa, the imprisoned leader of UDJ, and most pundits are convinced that many more (men as well as women) will vote for her party as a gesture of empathy and solidarity. Neither have empirical researches shown that women voters are any more politically ignorant than their male counterparts. Ignorance of detailed political issues is a feature of the electorate in general, with no great gender bias. The bulk of the Ethiopian public usually benignly abstains from closely tracking political issues, and is content to respond to cues issued by political activists. (And I fear that this is true of the Diaspora, too)

The fancy strategies of the EPRDF notwithstanding, Addis Ababa will not vote for the EPRDF; however uninspired voters may end up being by the opposition. (The opposition may yet inspire, by the way. Two and a half months are a long, long time in politics.) Merkato, the city’s business hub, in particular, is more, not less, anti-EPRDF, than it was in 2005.This is the section of the city that was brutally suppressed during the street protests in 2005, and the pain and bitterness still lingers.

EPRDF remains unpopular in the other major urban areas, too; the sympathy for Birtukan no less. But the EPRDF is not expected to concede all of them to the opposition as it did in 2005. Expect them to be the epicenters of controversy in the post-election period.

An astounding 85 % of the Ethiopian voter is rural based. This means roughly 25 million people this year, spread out over 1, 000, 000 sq. km; where every 50 households are now being monitored by new sub-level party and government structures set up after the 2005 election. (In an American or European context, this is equivalent to installing security cameras at every corner in the neighborhood for political surveillance.) Opposition presence had always been weak in the countryside, but their almost total absence so far, less than 90 days before election day, is truly disquieting.

Given the choice, rural voters will overwhelmingly turn against the EPRDF; who, from the perspective of the average farmer, has accomplished what everyone thought impossible: to be more intrusive in a farmer’s life than even the Derg.

Who then, entangled in such a life, would not crave his freedom?

Horn of Africa Daily

Editor's note: The case of a Federal system of government in Ethiopia

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 18:37:00 +0000

It was interesting to watch the 2010 Ethiopian election debates with topics chosen in advance. The candidate party leaders were using the media to make their stands on these subjects clear to the voters. I have a good reason to believe in some cases people may end up getting confused. A good example is the debate on the pros and cons of applying the federal system to Ethiopia. The name "The Federal Government of Ethiopia" was meant to imply the system has been already in practice since the inception of the EPRDF ruling party. However, the debates reflect the people may not be sufficiently comfortable with the system; namely the way the government is imposing on them rather than narturing federalism from bottom up. In my view this may only show the imperfection of the federal system while at work than the negative implications of the process. If that is the case, then we are back to the basics of any working system that has to be truly tested by its ability to sustain as a transition rather than an end in itself. The main factors that invigorate a system as time goes by are the basic patterns it shows either as a conforming or a suppressing instrument in response to changing realities on the ground.

That said, all candidates displayed a commanding knowledge about what the global picture of applying federalism to differing countries with different realities would be. They tried to get to the nitty gritty of how many countries followed the federal system and how many failed in doing so. But they fell short of scientifically(is there one yet?)approaching the reasons why federalism succeeded in some countries and failed in others. In some cases it seemed some candidates had an honest outlook of why federalism should work smoothly in Ethiopia. The reason given by one of the EPRDF spokesmen, for instance was; as long as people have the basic freedoms, they won't have to stick to the divisive motto of cessation because there is no need for it. In other words, they won't secede just because the freedom to do so is mentioned in article 39 of the constitution. Although this has proven to be a working principle for cooling down tempers, it always depended on who says it. So many countries may have the same or similar articles in their constitutions but the outcome proved to be devastatingly negative in some countries. The main reason is usually the fact that the opposing groups can have the ability to magnify the slightest imperfections if they think they are not welcome in the system. So, the devil is in the details. The other factors are based on how well the economy performs and how strong the government functions in terms of containing conflicts and opposing views of these nature using effective political and security defensive mechanisms.

Of all the points made, Dr. Beyene's alert that the implementations of the Federal system in Ethiopia should be handled with care makes at most sense. With that in mind, it looks like the notion that Ethiopia was never created without regional snse shows in the peoples' wisdom to focus their attentions on the substantial growth of the over all economy and hence the infrastructure of the country as the sole basis to prove federalism works on their behalf.

Al Jazeera English - Talk to Jazeera - President Isaias Afwerki

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 21:05:00 +0000

"Everything said about Eritrea is a deliberate lie", Issaias Afeworki

Twenty years after the liberation from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Africa's youngest nation, has emerged as strategically vital to the stability of the region and the wider global agenda.

Eritrea is struggling to balance the needs of its people with the perceived threats to the nation.

Al Jazeera's Jane Dutton conducts a rare interview with Isaisas Afwerki, the president of Eritrea.

Al Jazeera confronted him with the allegations about Eritrea's ties with Iran, Hamas, al Shabab in Somalia and rebel groups in Sudan and Houthis in Yemen.

"This is a deliberate distortion of facts, where is the evidence, these are fabrications, where is your evidence?", he said. Al Jazeera English - Talk to Jazeera - President Isaias Afwerki

Mr Issaias: The friend of Ethiopia?

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 23:56:00 +0000

By Tibebe Samuel Ferenji

I know it is not April and no one is playing April the fool day. It seems that some in the Ethiopian Opposition camp and particularly those in the cyber arena are infatuated with a crazy idea of "Shabeya freeing Ethiopia"; and they seem to have a party that is making them foolishly drunk. Thanks for the party but I cannot dance with them.
Though this crazy idea is not born in the Diaspora's cyber womb, it is mindboggling to read serious people entertaining such a possibility. Let me state it at the outset that I am an Eritrean by birth and have several cousins who hold high positions in the Eritrean government; among them is Mr. Semere Ressuom, the former Eritrean ambassador to the United States and the current Minister of Education in Eritrea. Let me also make it clear that my family was victimized by the regime in Ethiopia simply because of our "Eritrean heritage". During the 1998 cruel war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, my mother and my then 9-year-old niece were deported to Eritrea in a cruel manner.

Having said that let me put my two cents for the new found "Ethiopian Hero" in the Diaspora's web world. Mr. Issaias Afeworki is one of the worst dictators ever lived on the face of the Earth. To equate him with Patrice Lumumba and other African freedom fighters is to make a cruel joke in the suffering of the Eritrean people. Some, who consider themselves journalists, nonetheless practice yellow journalism, had interviewed Mr. Issaias and subjected us to his arrogant and child-like "wisdom". Do not get me wrong: these individuals have every right to interview Mr. Issaias, and have every right to state their opinions. However, they do not have the right to shove down our throats to accept Mr. Issaias as the "new Messiah" who is going to save Ethiopia. The fact remains Mr. Issaias has such a deep hatred for Ethiopia and would do everything possible to assert his direct or indirect control of Ethiopia's resources.

Mr. Issaias has showed the entire world his utter defiance to opinions other than his. This is the man who has mercilessly destroyed the lives of his comrades in arms. The fact remains that people like Petros Solomon who spent most of their adult lives fighting for the rights of the Eritrean people are languishing in jail without any trial. Former Ethiopian soldiers are subjected to hard labor in Adiqualla and in a condition that is not suitable to any human beings. Several journalists, religious leaders, human rights activists and many Eritrean citizens are held incommunicado accused of treason and other frivolous charges by the Eritrean regime. There is no freedom of the press, no election, even a fake one in Eritrea.
It is no wonder that Mr. Issaias feels that the whole world is against him and chastised organizations like the UN and AU. He can join people like Mugabe and Al Bashir in that regard. Sadly, every dictator and despot feels that the whole world is against him. Mr. Issaias is not any different. This man has become the worst nightmare for the Eritrean people. Young Eritreans who have lost hope in the future of their nation are fleeing the country in thousands trying to save their lives from this monster. Although I have no objection to Mr. Issaias interview by those who claim to care for Ethiopia and Ethiopians and the people of Eritrea, I'm appalled that these individuals failed to recognize the suffering of the Eritrean people and the danger that this man has posed to the interest of Ethiopia and Ethiopians. It is equally appalling that those who claim to advocate for human rights and democracy have failed to criticize this dictator for his Iron-Fist rule in Eritrea. Such double standard defies journalistic ethics (even for those who practice yellow journalism) and logic.

The irony is that those who are infatuated with Mr. Issaias claim that they are opposing the regime in Ethiopia because of the Ethiopian regime's dictatorial rule. If that is the case, how could we have any respect for them when they roll out the red carpet to one of the worst and the cruelest dictators in the world? It has been said that what we learn from history is that we do not learn from history. History shows us that it is Mr. Issaias and his cronies who created the TPLF and the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) for the sole purpose of creating havoc in Ethiopia and with diabolical interest of disintegrating Ethiopia. After putting the TPLF in power, Mr. Issaias and his cronies directly controlled Ethiopia's resources and sucked it like there is no tomorrow until May 1998. It is when the TPLF said "NOT ANY MORE" that the Issaias regime picked a fight with Ethiopia.

In June 1998, when Center for International Strategic Studies invited Eritrean and Ethiopian embassy officials with few individuals in the US, I was one of the few who were present at that meeting. I had a lengthy discussion with some of the Eritrean officials. These officials admitted to me that the border issue was not the real issue. They stated thatWeyane was trying to strangle us economically, thus we had to act quickly. It is when Ethiopia said that the Eritrean regime is no longer welcome to be a parasite in Ethiopia that Eritrrean soldiers marched into Ethiopian territory with their guns and with our Tanks in their control.

For any learned Ethiopian it is clear that what Issaias wants is a disintegrated Ethiopia. Period. If anyone has an illusion about that, then they need to re-read their history and learn from it once again. As most reports and reliable sources inform us, Mr. Issaias did not only pick a fight with Ethiopia; he also picked a fight with Yemen, Djibouti and the Sudan. Those in the Ethiopian opposition camp who think they can trust Issaias are making a strategic mistake and a political suicide by allying themselves with the sworn enemy of the Ethiopian people and one of the worst human beings on the face of the earth.

One thing we should realize is that the Ethiopian people hate Issaias more than they hate the TPLF. Make no Mistake about it. That is the reason Ethiopians mobilized coast to coast when Eritrea invaded Ethiopia in 1998. This is not the first time Eritrea rolled out its tainted red carpet for propaganda; Solomon Tekalegne and Mr. Demes Belete were used at one point for such propaganda. Unfortunately, Mr. Issaias is referred to as the "president of Eritrea"; Mr. Issaias is not qualified to be referred to as the "Eritrean President" by any measure. He is the cruel ruler of Eritrea. It is amusing to hear when those who ardently oppose Mr. Meles and support Issaias call Issaias "President Issaias", and when they are having a hard time calling Mr. Meles Prime Minister Meles. The people of Eritrea, despite their enormous struggle and sacrifice, did not get a chance to elect their president, nor did they have the opportunity to hold a democratic referendum. Their struggle has been hijacked by Mr. Issaias' leadership and they lead a miserable life, cruelly ruled by people who consider Eritrea as a piece of Real Estate they own.

Today, thousands of Eritreans are fleeing Eritrea to Ethiopia. I hope and pray one day the people of Ethiopia and Eritrea will unite under the right circumstances. However, attempting to allow Mr. Issaias to float to glory with innocent Ethiopians and Eritreans blood is unforgivable tragedy. How many of you forget the Ethiopians who were uprooted from Eritrea in 1991 when Shabya took power in Eritrea? Some of the Ethiopians gold teeth were pulled by pliers. Mr. Issaias should be charged with crimes against humanity and for war crimes in the International Court. He is yet to answer for the whereabouts and the circumstances of POW Colonel Bezabeh Petros.

Please do us all a favor, because you hate Woyane, do not glorify Issaias. Issaias is a man who hijacked Eritreans freedom and subjected Eritreans to an enormous suffering. He has been ruling Eritreans with fear, terror and death using his "Red Flower" (KEYEH EMBABA) thugs. Even one of his earlier admirers, Dr. Bereket Habteselassie, has turned against Mr. Issaias because he realized that a dictator in arms is also a dictator in "his kingdom". Thank you for the party, but the music is distorted, the dancing is crooked and I cannot dance with those who are immersed in the blood of innocent people.

The writer can be reached at tibebesamuel@yahoo.com

Points well made

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 02:13:00 +0000

I was watching the election debates(the streaming videos are listed above). They were full of complaints and criticisms about the over all situation they are in. It was about the debates lacking a live audience(the reason why Hailu Shaul refused to participate) and the attitudes and the "stubbornness" of the ruling party regarding the alleged weaknesses of the opposition. The EDP chairman Lidetu Ayalew had strong words to the regime about the claim that the opposition is not capable of leading even if it wins the election. He said just like the EPRDF has, through its protracted struggle managed to win the leadership, the prominent opposition members have at least 18 years of cumulative experiences not to mention their profound educational background. Ato Asfaw Getachew of ERAPA and Regesu Besa of EFDEHAG party also came up with compelling evidences as to how they can be counted as potential competitors in the election. I liked the point made about the clumsy stand of some opposition members, specially the diaspora whose main priority agenda is to change the constitution. If one doesn't believe in the constitution, there is no need to participate. Democracy should be about building on the good accomplishments others had made by making constitutional amendments if need be and not by starting over whenever a regime changes. They also said the ruling party should be prepared to accept any "surprises" instead of gearing up with the heavy approach of boasting its eminence. Dr. Merara Gudina also came up with reconciliatory words asking people to come out to vote in spite of all the pressures put on them by default.

Understandably, out of experience from the chaotic nature of the 2005 election, the election committee has undergone major changes in its ways of doing things, specially concerning security. Although the debate has succeeded to enjoy national exposure via the TV media, the absence of live audience and the lack of public inquisitions makes the process look somewhat controlled. It is my hope that the next debates, if any, may come up with more dynamic preparations encouraging participation of a well filtered but capable audience selected from the wider population.

The Abnormal Nature of the Eritrean Regime (The Democracy Project)

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 15:13:00 +0000

I found the following article to be analytical although I beg to differ in that the origin of the abnormal nature of the regime is mainly the absence of even a kernel of democracy compared to other countries in relative conditions. It is this self entitled power in the name of the Eritrean people that gave it a free pass to do what ever the regime wishes to do. All in all, the article is worth reading.

With the “Democracy Project” thread, I am trying to convince fellow Eritreans that undue focus on democracy and democratization as practiced now by most of the opposition is not only superfluous to the task of regime change, but also obstructive in that it is preventing us from searching other effective ways of facilitating regime change in Eritrea.

Besides the project having little causal effect, if any, in facilitating regime change, for many (not all) it has become the excuse they need to divert attention from the issue of regime change to preparations for the takeover. If you look at some websites, almost all the articles you see reflect the concern they have of what would happen once Isaias is gone: what kind of constitution should we have; what kind of government should we install; what languages should we have for a national language; how do we resolve the land issue; what should be the role of religion in future Eritrea; etc. Obsessed as they are with promoting their agendas that have entirely to do with the hereafter, they pay little attention to the horrors of the here and now. For them, it is not Isaias who is their primary enemy, but whoever they think will be competing against them in the hereafter for the seat of power. And the democracy project has provided them with excellent camouflage to do what they are doing in politically correct ways.

I mentioned thirteen fallacies of the “democracy project” of the opposition that easily fall under the “superfluous and obstructive” description. In this posting I will deal only with the first one. The “absence of democracy” fallacy...MORE

Horn of Africa Daily

Ethiopian Skier Competes at Winter Olympics - ABC News

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sat, 13 Feb 2010 15:58:00 +0000

The Vancouver Winter Olympics will include competitors and teams from skiing heavyweight countries such as the United States, Canada, Switzerland Italy and...Ethiopia? Yes, Ethiopia, a country that has no ski resorts, no alpine mountains and most importantly, no snow. But that hasn't stopped Robel Teklemariam, the first athlete ever to represent Ethiopia in any Winter Games as a one-man ski team.

Teklemariam made his first Olympic appearance at the 2006 Turin games, finishing in 83rd place out of 100 among cross-country skiers. This time he says he hopes to place higher.

"I really want to have a better result as in being closer to the winner than last time," he tells ABC News via e-mail in Vancouver. But he worries that he wasn't able to have as much training on snow as he would have liked.

"I trained this fall doing a lot of running and mountain biking. Later in the fall and early winter when I got my roller skis, I was also doing a bit of that," Teklemariam says...MORE at Ethiopian Skier Competes at Winter Olympics - ABC News

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 23:28:00 +0000

Ethiopia information on economic freedom | Facts, data, analysis, charts and more

Ethiopia’s economic freedom score is 51.2, making its economy the 136th freest in the 2010 Index. Its overall score fell 1.8 points as a result of deteriorating trade freedom, monetary freedom, and investment freedom. Ethiopia is ranked 28th out of 46 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, and its overall score is just below the regional average.

Ethiopia has achieved considerable economic growth over the past five years, driven mainly by exports of agricultural products. The double-digit growth rate of over 10 percent, however, is fragile due to the lack of economic dynamism, and the economy remains highly vulnerable to external shocks. Progress toward greater economic freedom has been uneven and sluggish.

Ethiopia underperforms in many of the 10 economic freedoms. The business and investment regime is burdensome and opaque. The overall quality and efficiency of government services have been poor and are further undermined by weak rule of law and pervasive corruption. Monetary stability is hampered by state distortions in prices and interest rates, and trade freedom is hurt by high tariff and non-tariff barriers.
Background Back to the top

Ethiopia is Africa’s oldest independent country and is moving toward multi-party democracy, but obstacles are abundant, as demonstrated by the 2005 post-election crackdown on protestors. Following war with Eritrea in the late 1990s, a U.N. peacekeeping mission was established on the border. The mission was terminated in 2008, but relations between the two countries remain tense. Ethiopia invaded Somalia in support of Somalia’s transitional federal government in 2006 and withdrew in 2009 following a peace deal concluded between the Somali government and moderate Islamic factions. Despite frequent drought and famine, agriculture contributes over 40 percent of GDP, accounts for over 70 percent of exports, and employs about 80 percent of the population. Privatization of state-owned enterprises has proceeded slowly, and the government remains involved in key sectors...More

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 18:59:00 +0000

Lebanese minister rules out bomb on Ethiopian jet - washingtonpost.com

By BASSEM MROUE
The Associated Press
Thursday, February 11, 2010; 8:05 AM

BEIRUT -- The cause of last month's Ethiopian Airlines crash into the Mediterranean appears to be neither a technical problem nor an explosion, a top Lebanese official said Thursday, without elaborating on what it actually could be.

The Boeing 737 crashed on Jan. 25, just minutes after takeoff from Beirut during a fierce thunderstorm. All 90 people on board died.

Asked whether the reason behind the "catastrophe" was a pilot error, Transportation Minister Ghazi Aridi said that no final conclusion could be reached until the cockpit voice recorder, retrieved Wednesday, is analyzed. He said the recorder is still missing a key part and divers are searching for it.

He said the data flight recorder, that was found on Sunday and sent to France for analysis, registered "information and is documented second by second."

His comments came a day after Ethiopian Airlines said in a statement it had not ruled out the possibility of sabotage but that it was "too early to conclude the cause" of the crash.

Within hours of the crash, Lebanese officials had said there was no indication of terrorism or sabotage on board Flight 409, which was headed for the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa.

"From the technical side, all the plane's systems were functioning properly until the moment of the crash," Aridi told reporters. "An explosion is ruled out."

A day after the crash, Aridi said the plane's pilot made a "fast and strange turn" minutes after takeoff from Beirut. He added then that the plane flew in the opposite direction from the path recommended by the control tower after taking off in stormy weather.
ad_icon

Henrietta Lacks’ ‘Immortal’ Cells

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 00:12:00 +0000

Henrietta Lacks’ ‘Immortal’ Cells

Medical researchers use laboratory-grown human cells to learn the intricacies of how cells work and test theories about the causes and treatment of diseases. The cell lines they need are “immortal”—they can grow indefinitely, be frozen for decades, divided into different batches and shared among scientists. In 1951, a scientist at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore, Maryland, created the first immortal human cell line with a tissue sample taken from a young black woman with cervical cancer. Those cells, called HeLa cells, quickly became invaluable to medical research—though their donor remained a mystery for decades. In her new book, The Immortal Life of Henrietta Lacks, journalist Rebecca Skloot tracks down the story of the source

Read more: http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/Henrietta-Lacks-Immortal-Cells.html#ixzz0eKgyrDYx

Flight ET409 Exposes Lebanon's Racist Underbelly

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 13:42:00 +0000

Patrick Galey, Reporter based in Beirut, Lebanon

Even though there were nine nationalities aboard the Boeing 737 jet which burst into flames and crashed into the sea minutes after taking off in a violent thunderstorm on Monday morning, the Lebanese, naturally enough, only concerned themselves with one.

54 Lebanese, almost all from the country's predominately Shiite southern region, are probably dead and the nation's outpouring of grief has been intense.

Prime Minister Saad Hariri declared Monday to be a national day of mourning for the victims; the education minister closed institutions for two days as a mark of respect.

The funeral of a southern businessman, who worked for a food import country in Angola, attracted international media attention, with veiled women throwing themselves on the coffin.

Distraught friends and relatives are still thronging a hospital in southern Beirut, waiting to identify mangled bodies being dragged from the eastern Mediterranean.

The search for the plane's black box is continuing, with families of victims waiting anxiously for clues on what befell flight ET409 in the seconds before disappearing off radar screens for good.

As with any air disaster in a post 9/11 world, terrorism has been raised as a possible cause, with several Lebanese dailies carrying uncorroborated allegations that the crash was the result of a "deliberate attack."

Whatever the cause of the disaster, it has exposed the uncomfortable and often unuttered truth that many Lebanese are still virulently racist.

23 migrant domestic workers from Ethiopia were onboard the ill-fated flight, along with at least seven airline crew members. The pilot was also Ethiopian.

In the absence of concrete facts, Lebanon's transport minister suggested that pilot error may have downed the plane, with the jet having undertaking "a very strange and fast turn" seconds before crashing...MORE

Eritrean Rebels Say Kill 25 Government Troops In Attacks

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sat, 02 Jan 2010 18:36:00 +0000

By REUTERS

ZALAM BESA, Ethiopia (Reuters) - Two Eritrean rebel groups said on Friday they have killed 25 government soldiers and wounded at least 38 others, in ambushes on two military camps.

There was no immediate comment from the Eritrean government and the report could not be independently confirmed.

Rebel spokesman Yasin Mohamed said the attacks by the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization (RSADO) and the Eritrean Salvation Front (ESF) rebels were in retaliation for the repression of the Afar minority and others by the government.

"The joint forces earlier today, made a surprise attack at the camp of 13 sub-division of the 2nd brigade at the vicinity of Kokobay, killed 13 and wounded 20 others," Yasin said.

He said a separate attack killed 12 members of an intelligence unit and wounded 18 others in Kermeti area. The United Nations Security Council imposed sanctions on Eritrea last week for arming and supporting Islamist insurgents in Somalia.LINK

Yemen, the new Eldorado ?

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 01:03:00 +0000

Every day on the southern coast of Yemen, illegal boats drop off men, and women running from war and poverty in Africa. But they’ve come to one of the poorest places on earth.

REPORTERS
By Cyril VANIER / Karim HAKIKI
We’re standing on a beach in southern Yemen, early one November morning. On the opposite side of the Gulf of Aden lies the Horn of Africa, one of the most troubled regions on earth, racked by civil war and poverty. Those who can pay for their way out, make their way to Yemen. Seventy dollars buys them a spot on the next boat out. Many are beaten on the way, sometimes women are raped, and all too often - passengers drown. Those who reach Yemen will have to start a new life from scratch.
The sea is calm this morning, it is high season for illegal boats crossing into Yemen. Last night, we heard a motor boat travelling parallel to the beach. There was no light, no noise on board except for the engine: probably a smuggler using the cover of night to carry his human cargo...More

Chief G-77 Negotiator Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping: US-Backed Proposals Mean Death for Millions of Africans

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 22:07:00 +0000

Chief G-77 Negotiator Lumumba Stanislaus Di-Aping: US-Backed Proposals Mean Death for Millions of Africans

Africa shows a willingness to negotiate

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:03:00 +0000

African Union climate negotiator Meles Zenawi has scaled back the demands for climate finance from rich countries, signaling thaw under way in the deadlocked UN negotiations.

Rie Jerichow
16/12/2009 16:20
Earlier this week, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown met with Ethiopia's Prime Minister and African Union climate negotiator Meles Zenawi. On Wednesday Brown said that Zenawi would soon come up with a proposal that could be an important step forward. So he did.

Meles Zenawi has announced that he supports 100 billion US dollars annual funds by 2020 from rich countries to help the poor world fight and adapt to climate changes. The EU has estimated that the developing countries will need 150 billion dollars.

"On long-term financing, I propose funding for adaptation and mitigation (emissions curbs) should start by 2013, to reach up to 50 billion dollars per annum by 2015 and 100 billion dollars per annum by 2020," he said on behalf of the African group, according to Reuters.

"No less than 50 percent should be allocated to adaptation to vulnerable and poor countries and regions such as African and small islands states," Meles Zenawi added.

Meles Zenawi hinted that Africa would not insist on public money. In his proposal, funding would be financed by creative financing mechanisms including carbon taxes and sales of emissions rights, Reuters reports.

"I know my proposal today will disappoint some Africans. My proposal scales back our expectation with respect to the level of funding in return for more reliable funding," the African Union climate negotiator said. (Photo: Scanpix/AFP)
READ MORE

Jet, ship tax to fund climate poor: Copenhagen deal

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:49:00 +0000

AFRICAN nations, led by Ethiopia and backed by France and Britain, have presented a plan to break the deadlock at the Copenhagen talks by raising billions of dollars to help poor countries cope with climate change through levies on international aviation and shipping and possibly even a controversial global financial tax.

Kevin Rudd discussed the plan with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown soon after his arrival in Copenhagen. Mr Brown, along with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, is backing the Ethiopian scheme, although the financial tax proposal was last night meeting resistance from other developed countries.

A spokesman for Mr Brown said London supported the Ethiopian proposal and hoped it could "provide a way forward" for the struggling climate change talks.

British Cabinet Secretary for Climate Change Ed Miliband told The Australian that much would depend on how the Ethiopian proposal was received in Copenhagen today. "It's important to see its reception today," Mr Miliband said.
VIDEO: Rudd arrives in Copenhagen

“We will not repeat the mistakes committed in the 2005 elections”

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 02:21:00 +0000

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
By Kaleyesus Bekele

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi yesterday said that his government would not repeat the mistakes committed in the May 2005 election in the May 2010 elections.

At a press conference he gave yesterday at his office, Meles told local reporters that his government was not prepared for the election riots of 2005. “Starting from putting in place a sufficient police force to monitoring the activities of armed groups we were not well prepared to control riots. But the EPRDF is known for one thing - it could make mistakes but it will not repeat them,” Meles said.

Asked about the possibilities of forming a coalition government with opposition parties, Meles said such ideas were floated by those who do not know about the country’s election law. He pointed out that the party which wins a majority seat forms a government. “If the EPRDF doesn’t win adequate seats, it will hand over power. It can not work together with opposition parties, which have a completely different objective. What has been done in Kenya and Zimbabwe is they tried to eliminate the ruling party from power though chaos and when they failed they said that they had established a coalition government. They said so after many lost their lives. This doesn’t work here,” he said. Read More...

Somali training camps fuel threat of attacks on US

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 01:32:00 +0000

Associated Press
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) — The recruits gather in scorching desert hideouts in Somalia, use portraits of President Barack Obama for target practice, learn how to make and detonate bombs, and vow allegiance to Osama bin Laden.

Training camps in the lawless nation of Somalia are attracting hundreds of foreigners, including Americans, and Somalis recruited by a local insurgent group linked to al-Qaida, according to local and U.S. officials. American officials and private analysts say the camps pose a security threat far beyond the borders of Somalia, including to the U.S. homeland.

In interviews with The Associated Press, former trainees gave rare details on the camps, which are scattered along desert footpaths, rutted roads and steamy coastal dens. They say the recruits are told the United States is the enemy of Islam.

U.S. and Somali officials say Somalia's al-Shabab jihadist, or holy war, movement is growing, and uses foreign trainers with battlefield experience from other conflicts.

The threat posed by the training camps was underscored in federal court documents unsealed Nov. 23 in Minneapolis, home to a large Somali-American community. An indictment against several Somali-Americans who allegedly fought in Somalia said trainees at one camp included dozens of ethnic Somalis from Somalia and other African countries, Europe and the United States.

"The trainees were trained by, among others, Somali, Arab, and Western instructors in ... small arms, machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades, and military-style tactics," said an affidavit from FBI Special Agent Michael N. Cannizzaro Jr. that was unsealed with the indictment.

Former al-Shabab fighter Hassan Yare, who works in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, said life in the camps is austere. Recruits sleep on plastic sheets and sometimes eat only one meal a day — often maize cooked with water. Phones are confiscated. Recruits are only allowed to speak to their parents once every other Friday — Islam's holy day.

"The message is simple," Dahir Muhiyadiin, 18, said three months after finishing his training at a camp run by Somalia's main insurgent group. "We are taught how the Western infidels want to eradicate pure Muslims, about how the U.S. government does nothing as Israel harasses our Muslim Palestinians."

Al-Shabab — "the youth" in Arabic — controls much of the desert nation's southern region and holds large parts of Mogadishu. It wants to overthrow the government and install a strict form of Islam. Analysts say the group has between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters.

Among al-Shabab's ranks are an estimated 200 to 400 foreigners from Pakistan, Chechnya, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania and other countries — many of them veterans of fighting in Afghanistan and Pakistan, said Mark Schroeder, an Africa analyst at the global intelligence firm Stratfor.

The proliferation of jihadist training camps raises concerns that Somalia will become the next Afghanistan — a sanctuary for al-Qaida-linked groups to train and plan attacks. The Somali government seems powerless to do anything about it.

"The threat posed by al-Shabab is something that we pay very, very close attention to," Vice Adm. Robert T. Moeller, the deputy commander for the U.S. military's Africa Command, told AP at the command's headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany.

The government is backed by 5,000 African Union peacekeepers but controls only a few blocks in Mogadishu. The insurgents are so confident that they stage executions of suspected spies there.

Jihadists linked to al-Shabab can also roam through neighboring countries without attracting much attention and already cross boldly into northern Kenya.

U.S. officials are concerned Somali-Americans who fought with al-Shabab will return to the United States and carry out attacks. As many as 20 from Minnesota have been lured to their ancestral homeland to join the jihad. At least one blew himself up in a suicide attack in Somalia.

One of the documents unsealed in Minneapolis gave details on that attack. It said Shirwa Ahmed, a naturalized U.S. citizen and Minneapolis resident, took part in a truck-bombing in Bossaso, Somalia, on Oct. 29, 2008, against offices of a regional intelligence service. Ahmed, who was alone in the truck, was identified through a fingerprint obtained from a finger found at the bomb site.

A Somali-American from Seattle is suspected of also having taken part in a suicide attack against an AU peacekeeper base on Sept. 17. U.S. authorities said they are awaiting DNA test results to confirm it.

Michael Leiter, the director of the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center, told Congress in September there is "significant concern" that al-Qaida operatives in Somalia may commission Americans to return to the U.S. and launch attacks. In recent weeks, al-Shabab has threatened to attack Uganda, Kenya, Israel and other countries, although it has not made a direct public threat against the United States.

About a dozen al-Qaida operatives are in Somalia with ties to al-Shabab, Schroeder said. One of them, Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, is wanted for al-Qaida's 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that killed 224 people, including 12 Americans.

Somalia is among a handful of places where terrorists can train openly. The U.S. State Department says terrorist training also takes place in Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of North Africa, the Philippines, Lebanon, Yemen and Colombia.

The United States withdrew most of its troops from Somalia in 1994, months after 18 U.S. soldiers were killed in the battle described in the book "Black Hawk Down." The soldiers had been deployed to help amid a famine but became embroiled in clan warfare. The U.S. is leery of making such a large commitment again but is still engaged.

On Sept. 14, U.S. commandos on helicopters strafed a convoy carrying top al-Qaida fugitive Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan in rural southern Somalia, rappelled to the ground, collected his body and another corpse and took off. Nabhan was wanted for the 2002 car bombing of a beach resort in Kenya and an attempt to shoot down an Israeli airliner.

In October, the U.S. began using sophisticated Reaper surveillance drones in the region, initially to hunt for pirates. Analysts expect they will also be used to search for militants in Somalia.

Al-Shabab recently released a video showing its members vowing allegiance to bin Laden, training in dusty camps and calling Somalia's U.S.-backed President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed a traitor. The militants leaped over sandbags, crawled on the ground and fired at targets under the gaze of light-skinned, bearded trainers.

Recruits are trained in intelligence matters and explosives, said an al-Shabab official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the press.

Suleyman Hussein, a former al-Shabab fighter who defected to a government-allied militia, told AP that camp leaders affixed photos of Obama and Ahmed to wooden boards.

"They were our targets," he said.

Somali Police Chief Abdi Hassan Awale said the camps are mostly near the Kenyan border and are drawing more recruits. He said one camp is near Raaskambooni, a town along the Indian Ocean less than two miles (3 kilometers) from the Kenyan border.

"Most of the trainers are foreigners, including people from Western countries," he said. "We do not know exactly how many there are, but we estimate hundreds."

Awale said al-Shabab tries to recruit the poorest, the mentally ill and teenagers who have lost their parents in Somalia's violence. He accused the group of brainwashing recruits "with false, un-Islamic ideas imported from Afghanistan and Pakistan."

Somalia has many orphans that al-Shabab can try to recruit. As many as 22,000 civilians have been killed and 1.1 million displaced in the past two years, according to Ted Dagne, an African affairs specialist with the Congressional Research Service.
The Kyiv Post is hosting comments and forums to foster lively debate. Criticism is fine, but stick to the issues. Comments that include profanity or personal attacks will be removed from the site. If you think that a posted comment violates these standards, please flag it and alert us. We will take steps to block violators.

This day

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 00:35:00 +0000

1962: Eritrea made a province of the Ethiopian empire
On this day in 1962, the Ethiopian parliament and Eritrean Assembly voted unanimously for the abolition of Eritrea's federal status, making Eritrea a simple province of the Ethiopian empire.

J'Accuse!

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 19:03:00 +0000

By Alemayehu G. Mariam

"No alternative in the opposition," they whispered anonymously. What a disgusting phrase to use in justifying support for a ruthless dictatorship? That is apparently the scuttlebutt on Embassy Row in Addis Abeba. Reuters' Barry Malone reported last week, "Most Western governments want Meles to continue because there is no alternative in the opposition. As long as the elections are semi-democratic, they'll probably stay quiet, keep giving aid, hope for liberalisation of the economy and leave full democracy for later." Is this the ultimate proof of the triumph of Western moral relativism, hypocrisy and skullduggery in Ethiopia and Africa? Is this the new 21st Century Western paradigm of moral capitulation and appeasement of evil? Is the West going to a moral hellhole in a hand basket?

We now have a clear answer to a question that had puzzled us for the past two decades: Why do Western governments and their multilateral lending institutions support Zenawi's dictatorship with billions of dollars in loans and foreign aid? Answer: Because "there is no alternative in the opposition!" Why do they turn a blind eye to the gross violations of human rights in Ethiopia? Turn a deaf ear to the bootless cries of the thousands of Ethiopian political prisoners rotting in Zenawi's jail? Pretend to be mute on Birtukan Midekssa's unjust imprisonment? Prop up a regime that ruthlessly decimates its opposition, crushes the free press, chokes civil society organizations, squanders and defalcates...Read more

CBC News - Money - Economically speaking, it's time to invade Eritrea

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:47:00 +0000

CBC News - Money - Economically speaking, it's time to invade Eritrea

Maybe it is time for the rest of the world to follow Canada's lead and pull out of Afghanistan. Then we can all invade some place equally needy like Eritrea. It only makes economic sense.

The idea struck me the other morning when I heard my old friend from Hong Kong days, Adrian Edwards, on the radio announcing that the UN was evacuating 600 of its foreign nationals from Kabul.

Adrian has worked in some the world's most exotic locations as a correspondent and then as a UN official. He is not easily moved...

Alemayehu G. Mariam: Famine and the Noisome Beast in Ethiopia

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sat, 31 Oct 2009 23:21:00 +0000

Alemayehu G. Mariam: Famine and the Noisome Beast in Ethiopia

Posted using ShareThis

It is hard to talk about Ethiopia these days in non-apocalyptic terms. Millions of Ethiopians are facing their old enemy again for the third time in nearly forty years. The Black Horseman of famine is stalking that ancient land. A year ago, Meles Zenawi's regime denied there was any famine. Only "minor problems" of spot shortages of food which will "be soon brought under control," it said dismissively. The regime boldly predicted a 7-10 percent increase in the annual harvest over 2007. Simon Mechale, head of the country's Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency, proudly declared: "Ethiopia will soon fully ensure its food security." For several years, the regime has been touting its Productive Safety Net Programme would result in ending the "cycle of dependence on food aid" by bridging production deficits and protecting household and community assets. Famine and chronic food shortages were officially ostracized from Ethiopia...

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/famine-and-the-noisome-be_b_339467.html

How to avert the effects of the recurring drought in Ethiopia

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 00:08:00 +0000

One may say it is easier said than done but I believe my solution to this problem is doable. The famine has become a painstaking and morally demeaning phenomenon that haunts the country every season there is no sufficient rain. The sharp population growth can be claimed as one of the reasons for the easy surrender to the drought. The economic growth of 10% every year for the last half a dozen years hasn't shown results for the whole region of the country. These and other reasons play a major role in contributing to the famine related horror that is unacceptable at this stage of the century.

First thing to be done is to change the way the government and the elites of the country do things. I know there is a political tension from inside and surrounding neighboring countries that persuade the government to deplete its resources for national defense against eminent and potential threats in the region. In my view, there needs to be a protracted effort to secure the health of the state affairs first. The wellbeing of the citizens of the country plays a major role in establishing and expanding a firm defense mechanism. A malnourished and unhealthy youth cannot defend his/her country. When there is a 10% economic growth, it should be understood in terms of alleviating the poverty level of the whole country and not only few areas of the country, in which case there should be an effective mechanism to subsidize those that are not doing well. The next step should be examining why they are not doing well and step up new efforts to improve the situation.

If the government has fulfilled its obligations then why is famine inflicted by draught is becoming the usual breaking news on the TV screens of the world? I am witnessing people are getting tired of hearing this. An in depth look into what is really going on may need a thorough research from fellow experts in the field. I wouldn't say outright this hasn't been done so far, but in spite of all the creative think tank to solve famine related problems, it is not going away. Then there needs to be a look into the implementation of the solutions. My take is, the problem is in the implementation of the ideas that are already being adopted by the government and to a certain extent by the NGOs. So, what is in the way of reducing starvation to its lowest level once and for all? Are the people getting addicted to food aid, which is more damaging for the business and entrepreneurial reputation of the country? I don't think one will put him/herself in this kind of low self esteem just to get food aid.
There are things that need to be done urgently before we experience the same story in the coming 50th year anniversary of the 1984 famine.

1. The government need not do things to make them look good for the public consumption. It needs to deal with problems and keep statistics that reflect the whole country and not necessarily patches of successes. Some groups, especially the opposition may want to point fingers at the ethnic kililization policy of the EPRDF as the reason for many of the problems. The kilils are meant to facilitate the ethnic groups of the killil to take care of their affairs in a way that is feasible to them and not to cause balkanization that creates isolation from the rest of the country. If this is the case, the purpose of kilil is not properly implemented. This should be looked into and strictly denounced from being the norm. The federal government has the obligation to play a swift role in fixing this kind of mischaracterization of a federal system of government.

2. The tradition of depending on the occasionally scant rain is like playing with the Russian roulette. There are innovative measures that need to be taken to reduce dependence on rain. Some of them are digging wells, accumulating rain water, using electric dams for that purpose, irrigation, etc. They all need capital. Unfortunately the food aid is not meant to support these kinds of lasting solutions. There needs to be a way to finance all the measures that alleviate dependence on rain. It is doable with a conviction to break all the usual ways of doing things.

3. The government needs to add to its constitution the urgency of tackling famine as its national security matter. It is the core of all the deliverance of progress. Without eradicating poverty which is as frightening as Ethiopia's, there can't be any five year, ten year plan. So, it is crucial that something similar to a cultural revolution is practiced to get out of the recurring famine whose level could have easily been tackled in most other countries. There shouldn't be any reason Ethiopia can't accomplish this goal. One of the collective actions used for fighting the effects of draught should be forming an emergency task force to look into the early signs of malnutrition, especially in children. If it is because of the negligence of the parents, the children need to be taken away to a federally funded organization that can feed, nurture and educate the children until they manage to support themselves. This organization can easily gain international recognition if its efforts are fruitful.

4. Farming methods need to be totally reformed to create sufficient yield of crops and encourage large scale farming that transforms the subsistence farmers into productive citizens that can support their families. Many think the land lease method introduced by the government is the cause of the problem. We should learn from the fact that in countries like China this kind of land policy hasn't hampered the economic growth it is enjoying. There must be some element of the policy that may be causing it. It needs to be closely studied to identify the problem

Conclusion:
One may say those measures have more or less been introduced in the country. Well, the answer to this is simple. If it hasn’t shown results and the country is repeatedly confronted with begging for food aid every now and then, something may not be working right. Does anybody care to look into this? It is about time things are taken seriously without being too defensive about anything. The government needs to start a 25 year plan right now to avert another looming disaster; that will follow the nation to the 50thyear anniversary of the 1984 famine.

The Horn of Africa - Prologue to a Tumultuous Year

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 05:40:00 +0000

By Kumsa Aba Gerba

The Horn of Africa is laden with many fundamental socio economic and political problems that are caused by the regional players themselves. There are however many non intrinsic problems, due to underhanded meddling of the so called “development partners”. The Hydro politics of the Nile and Egypt, the future of Southern Sudan, the situation in Somalia and the fate of Somaliland embed ticking time bombs, with little safety pins that are to set off in 2010 and forward.
These cataclysms, unless mitigated by political players of the region and the “development partners” ahead of time and in a responsible manner, may transcend borders and escalate to international conflicts from the Lake States of Africa to all the way to the Mediterranean Sea and the Persian Gulf.

Hydro politics of the Nile and Egypt

The nine riparian states Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda Egypt and Sudan’s have long been actively negotiating about the uses and rights of the Nile waters. During all these negotiations, development partners represented by the World Bank and Eritrea, co-opted by none other than Egypt, have been observers.
In May 2009, seven of the riparian states, angry over the near veto powers Egypt and Sudan, adopted a draft pact that does not recognize Egypt and Sudan’s “historical rights and uses” of the Nile waters during the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile CoM) meeting in Kinshasa. They wanted to adopt a draft pact that provided for the establishment of a permanent Nile Basin Commission for fair use of the river’s riparian resources.
Subsequent to the pact of the seven riparian states, the “development partners” who are supposed to be impartial, issued a joint statement against the majority states who adopted a draft pact. The statement, issued by the 12 development partners convening under a trust fund hosted by the World Bank, seemed to favor Egypt and Sudan against the other seven countries.
The seven riparian states became angry at the intervention of the so called ‘development partners’ according to information from the very recent Nile CoM meeting in Alexandria in Egypt, in July 2009. Nonetheless the seven riparian states have decided to conclude the much-anticipated blueprint by early 2010 in what appears to be an ultimatum for Egypt and Sudan to accept a draft agreement that the other seven countries accepted, or risk isolation.
For more than a century Egypt has had a visceral hostility towards Ethiopia that is highly noxious. Despite that Ethiopia is one of the seven riparian states; it is also cautious of untimely Egyptian growl that is backed by USA and the ‘development partners’. Egypt is the biggest recipients of US aid (Since 2004 over $28 billion in economic assistance, including $2 billion in military aid) and has political clout over institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF.
Ethiopia is the main source of the Nile, which contributes 86% of the water to the basin and utilizes less than 1% of the potential for hydroelectric power or irrigation. Ethiopia is precautious because if the ‘development partners’ do not handle the use of Nile waters in an impartial, fair and prudent manner and when the seven riparian countries move along with their anticipated resolution and ultimatum in early 2010, Egypt may wreck havoc on Ethiopia through its historic proxies, Eritrean forces and terrorist networks based in Somalia.

The future of Southern Sudan

Even though Darfur has grabbed global attention for the last few years, Southern Sudan, an area containing abundant oil reserves, has been dealing with its own crisis. In 2005, a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended the war between the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) that had been raging for almost fifty years at the cost of more than 2 million lives. Part of the peace agreement calls for a referendum to be held in 2011 to give Southern Sudan an opportunity to secede or stay united.
There are very serious differences between the two parties on how to go about the referendum in 2011. The NCP says all southerners (including ones in the North) should participate, while the SPLM wants to limit it to the residents of southern Sudan only, afraid of the validity of the census. On the question of voting, the NCP says secession should be valid only if at least 75 percent of voters chose "Yes", while a simple majority of 51 percent should be enough for unity. The SPLM proposes a simple majority percentage for both choices.
In the past, the US had been working towards the secession of Southern Sudan. The Christian Rights and many neo-conservatives during the Bush administration have been actively engaged in preparing the oil rich south for independence. The US based Inside the Pentagon (ITP) newsletter had stated that the US administration was keen on assisting Sudan People Liberation Army (SPLA) transition from a guerilla force to one that can provide adequate defense capabilities for its people and territory. In not so distant past, some Washington policy makers had also been contemplating of boosting SPLA’s air defense capabilities to deter the North from attacking in an attempt to prevent the secession of South Sudan. This being the view from Washington, South Sudan had reportedly been building up its military arsenal, including a controversial shipment of Ukrainian tanks last year, in secrecy to prepare for such an event.
Recently the US is having a second thought about the eminent independence of the South. In a drastic turn of policy the US is now talking to both parties to make the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) realistically implemented regardless of the outcome, in order to avoid another flare up of hostilities between the North and the South.
President Obama’s special envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration is making headways in the trilateral talks since it started in July 2009 in Washington. Gration is said to be a much seasoned diplomat and his military background might have helped him in obtaining more cooperation from the DOD and the State Department, unlike his predecessors.
Gration is advising the North that it should not be working on how to make independence unfeasible. On the other hand Gration is counseling the NCP to work hard on how unity can be viable. This US position has recently made SPLM very nervous.
The US realized that the secession of the south may not end up with a smooth separation with the North. The border of the two regions is not even defined, especially around the very contentious oil rich areas. The US also realized that the South is not that homogeneous with various ethnic and tribal make up and may not stay as one country that long after secession.
Either way the wind blows, at the prelude to the referendum in 2010 or the outcome in 2011, there is a high potential of deadly turbulence in Southern Sudan, much worse than that of Darfur. This commotion of heavily armed conflict in the south may adversely affect the peace and stability of neighboring Uganda, DRC, CAR, Kenya and Ethiopia.

Lawless Somalia and the fate of Somaliland

Somalia is such a mess because of the rivalries of various clan warlords and because of ascendance of terrorist networks. But there are many international players that have contributed to stir up disorder and lawlessness.
With regard to US policy on Somalia, it has been myopic either due to the ‘Black Hawk Down’ traumatic syndrome or due to lack of any economic incentive such as oil in the region. The theory that Hizbul Islam can be tamed in order to crash Al Shabaab is nothing but a repeat of the same failed policy in Afghanistan of playing nice with the Taliban in order to target Al Qaeda that resulted in the Taliban to become a menace to the very survival of a key US ally, Pakistan.
One of the architects of such US policy is Ken Menkhaus, with an effort to create a tailored policy by cajoling jihadists such as the Hizbul Islam coalition. Menkhaus has invested on such theorem and written some hypothesis such as “Somalia after the Ethiopian Occupation: First Steps to End the Conflict and Combat Extremism” and “Governance without Government in Somalia: Spoilers, State Building, and the Politics of Coping.”
One of the Hizbul Islam figures being cajoled is Sheikh Hassan "Turki" Abdullahi, the leader of Ras Kamboni Brigade, which is part of four factions that merged to form Hizbul Islam with Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys as chairman, with strong ties with Eritrea. Al-Turki fought alongside Al Shabaab to overthrow warlord Barre Hirale in Aug. 2008. In recent days, Sheikh Turki has publicly opposed Al Shabaab's declaration of an administration in Kismayo that excludes other groups. This position of Al-Turki has made US policy makers distortedly gleeful.
Al-Turki was designated, under US Presidential Executive Order 13224, for terrorist financing on June 3, 2004. Al-Turki was born in the Ogaden. It is believed that Al-Turki participated in the unsuccessful Ogaden War between Somalia and Ethiopia over control of the Ogaden region. He still has his eye on Ethiopia’s Ogaden and holds key influence and control over the leadership of Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF).
The UN has also become a paper tiger with regard to the Somali crisis. Sanction on Eritrea, which channels weapons to Al Shabaab and Hizbul Islam, is not going to happen. Eritrea already trades less with the outside world. The country's president is not interested in being a globe-trotting statesman who often skips AU summits and IGAD meetings. UN knows sanctions won't deter Eritrea’s less savory allies, Libya and Iran who provide Eritrea with aid.
The other potential trouble area in the Horn is seemingly peaceful Somaliland. Even though the international community does not recognize Somaliland as country, there has been so much foreign hand in respect to the upcoming election in Somaliland.
Like many elections in underdeveloped countries, there is a familiar indulgence of NGOs in the Somaliland election that has exasperated the contradiction between the incumbent and the opposition parties. Last summer, the head of Interpeace, an international peace building NGO was expelled after being accused of sharing incomplete voter information with officials from the opposition parties without consulting with the Somaliland election commission. Moreover, the ruling party has become intolerant of any push from external parties partly due to the pure malady of incumbency to linger in power.
Such an affray with NGOs has probably affected US policy makers towards Somaliland. Donald Payne (D-NJ), chairman of subcommittee on Africa and Global Health, invited Mohamed Omer, opposition Kulmiye party foreign officer, while Abdillahi Mohamed Duale, the foreign secretary of Somaliland government, who incidentally was in Washington, was told that the congressman wasn’t available to see him. Mr. Duale was received by President Obama’s advisor on Africa and met other officials from USAID, despite that Donald Payne refused to meet him.
According to VOA, Ted Dagne, an aide to Donald Payne said: “Donald Payne does not recognize Mr. Duale as the only one who represent the Somaliland people and will meet any other official from Somaliland”. Consequently, the humiliated President Dahir Rayale refused to attend and participate in recent congressional hearing about Somalia chaired by Donald Payne.
On the home front, Al-Shabaab has had keen interest in seemingly peaceful Somaliland and considers it as its home base. Many Al-Shabaab leaders come from Somaliland. Lately, Sheikh Mukhtar Abdurahman Abu Zubayr, the Amir (leader) of Al-Shabaab who comes from Somaliland, urged the people to rise against the government. He has accused, through a circulated voice message, the Somaliland authority of oppressing Muslims.
Somaliland is not an internationally recognized country and has no official diplomatic relations with the US, UN or any other country. With such a flawed US policy as advanced by Donald Payne and Ken Menkhaus as well as with Al-Shabaab sleepers all over Somaliland, the 2010 election may drag the country towards lawlessness ala the rest of Somalia, making the Horn of Africa, the Gulf of Eden and the western shores of the Indian Ocean a treacherous zone.
The author is an Ethiopian American graduate student and a researcher of International Relations in USA. He can be reached at abagerba@yahoo.com

Ethiopia: Drought Need Not Mean Hunger And Destitution - Oxfam

tadeth@gmail.com (Horn of Africa Daily) — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 04:51:00 +0000

Nairobi — With droughts becoming more common, donors and the Ethiopian government must look beyond the traditional "band aid" responses to disasters by using approaches that are more cost-effective, sustainable and better suited to the population, international aid agency Oxfam says in a new report.

"We cannot make the rains come, but there is much more that we can do to break the cycle of drought-driven disaster in Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa," Penny Lawrence, Oxfam's international director, states. "Food aid offers temporary relief and has kept people alive in countless situations, but does not tackle the underlying causes that continue to make people vulnerable to disaster year after year."

Oxfam issued the report, Band Aids and Beyond, on 22 October, the 25th anniversary of one of Ethiopia's worst famines when an estimated one million people died. The report looks at how aid has worked since 1984, arguing that the current donor trend of focusing on emergency food aid had to change.

Manoocher Deghati/IRIN
"Donors need to shift their approach, and help to give communities the tools to tackle disasters before they strike," Lawrence said. "Drought does not need to mean hunger and destitution. If communities have irrigation for crops, grain stores and wells to harvest rains then they can survive despite what the elements throw at them."

Calling for a radical shake-up in the way the world tackled food crises, Oxfam said it was essential that donors rise to the challenge and provide adequate funding for emergency assistance for this year's crisis, adding: "Current responses by international donors are far below requirements estimated by governments and UN agencies."

New approach

In the report, Oxfam argues that "it is equally essential that donors do more to back programmes that manage the risk of the disaster before it strikes, such as early warning systems, creating strategically positioned stockpiles of food, medicine and other items, and irrigation programmes.

"For instance, in Somali region, Oxfam is building birkhads, or protected wells, to enable communities to 'harvest' rain during the rainy season to make sure there is more water available nearby when the rains stop. These types of programmes receive just 0.14 percent of overseas aid."

Climate change threat

"Climate scientists predict that by 2034, the 50th anniversary of the 1984 Ethiopia famine, what are now droughts will become the norm, hitting the region three years out of every four," Oxfam said. "A shift of approach is needed to prevent climate shocks developing into disasters which will push more people into poverty."

Lawrence said: "Climate change makes the urgency of this approach greater than ever before. Ethiopians on the frontline of climate change cannot wait another 25 years for common sense to become common practice."

World hunger

On 16 October, another international aid agency, ActionAid, issued a report, Who's really fighting hunger, questioning why one billion people the world over were hungry.

"Over one billion people - a sixth of humanity - don't have enough to eat," ActionAid said. "Almost a third of the world's children are growing up malnourished. This is perhaps one of the most shameful achievements of recent history, since there is no good reason for anyone to go hungry in today's world. "

However, ActionAid said hunger was a choice man makes, "not a force of nature".

Sustainable Development
It added: "Hunger begins with inequality - between men and women, and between rich and poor. It grows because of perverse policies that treat food purely as a commodity, not a right. It is because of these policies that most developing countries no longer grow enough to feed themselves, and that their farmers are among the hungriest and poorest people in the world. Meanwhile, the rich world battles growing obesity."

Arguing that policies can be changed, ActionAid detailed the dramatic progress made when countries translated the right to food into concrete actions, "such as investing in poor farmers, and introducing basic measures to protect the vulnerable. Their success makes the inaction and apathy of other countries all the more inexcusable."