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<?xml-stylesheet type="text/xsl" media="screen" href="/~d/styles/rss2full.xsl"?><?xml-stylesheet type="text/css" media="screen" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/~d/styles/itemcontent.css"?><rss xmlns:feedburner="http://rssnamespace.org/feedburner/ext/1.0" version="2.0"><channel><title>High-Yield Blog</title><link>http://www.highyieldblog.com/</link><description>We follow nearly 600 leveraged companies in about 200 industry subgroups globally with around 1.700 High Yield bonds outstanding. Being chronically skeptical about accounting we do not follow companies in the financial services industry as we think their accounting shows even less of the underlying truth than in other industries. In case you venture to look at our credit snapshots do not dare to skip the accounting red flags page. Contact: highyieldblog.at.gmail.dot.com</description><language>en</language><managingEditor>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</managingEditor><lastBuildDate>Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:31:23 PST</lastBuildDate><generator>Blogger http://www.blogger.com</generator><openSearch:totalResults xmlns:openSearch="http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/">2349</openSearch:totalResults><openSearch:startIndex xmlns:openSearch="http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/">1</openSearch:startIndex><openSearch:itemsPerPage xmlns:openSearch="http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/">25</openSearch:itemsPerPage><atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="self" href="http://feeds.feedburner.com/hyb" type="application/rss+xml" /><atom10:link xmlns:atom10="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" rel="hub" href="http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com" /><item><title>Credit Snapshot Reports moved to ZeroHedge</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/XMZH7kWPLf0/credit-snapshot-reports-moved-to.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Mon, 26 Oct 2009 06:02:32 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-1671037684710839370</guid><description>&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;We have moved our Credit Snapshot Reports to ZeroHedge's&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/darpa"&gt;&lt;strong&gt;&lt;u&gt;Distributed Analysis and Research Aggregation&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/u&gt;&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/a&gt;project which is going to be launched soon.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-1671037684710839370?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">1</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/10/credit-snapshot-reports-moved-to.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>The HY conundrum</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/zB_DsimZY9U/hy-conundrum.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Fri, 23 Oct 2009 06:10:07 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-772722663868929753</guid><description>&lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0"&gt;The&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_1"&gt;Merrill&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_2"&gt;Lynch&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_3"&gt;High Yield Master&lt;/span&gt; II Index, often used when assessing the&lt;br /&gt;state of the broad High Yield market, &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_6"&gt;suggests&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_9"&gt;that Junk &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_12"&gt;bonds have &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_13"&gt;returned&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;a whooping 51% year-to-date, &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_16"&gt;thereby&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_18"&gt;outperforming&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_22"&gt;the&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_23"&gt;SPX&lt;/span&gt; &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_24"&gt;by&lt;/span&gt; a &lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_25"&gt;cool&lt;/span&gt; 29%.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_26"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_27"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class="blsp-spelling-error" id="SPELLING_ERROR_28"&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256185610921.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 523px; height: 388px;" src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256185610921.jpg" alt="" border="0" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I am notoriously sceptical about indices (reasons include geometric returns&lt;br /&gt;versus dollar weighted returns, index inclusion/exclusion problem, changes&lt;br /&gt;in share of CCC rated paper, etc). Looking at High Yield mutual fund indices&lt;br /&gt;only partly solves such issues as these indices have their own flaws but f.i.&lt;br /&gt;Lipper's HY index ytd return was in the low 40's  and thereby almost 10&lt;br /&gt;percentage points (so actually 20%) lower than the Master II's.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Mid August 2008 was the time when the HY market started its bold down&lt;br /&gt;move of -31% in less than three months.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256187201984.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 593px; height: 336px;" src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256187201984.jpg" alt="" border="0" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Since that same August 2008 the ML index recovered and has eventually&lt;br /&gt;returned roughly +14%, indicating that everyone in HY land should be well&lt;br /&gt;ahead of their high water marks (which I doubt) and have outperformed the&lt;br /&gt;SPX by 28% during that time.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256191131562.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 559px; height: 348px;" src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256191131562.jpg" alt="" border="0" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Issuers went into this period with very high leverage and during that same&lt;br /&gt;period reported earnings plunged to a degree not seen seen since 1871&lt;br /&gt;(by 99%, that is), with y-o-y industrial production at -10.7%, y-o-y retail sales&lt;br /&gt;down -5.3% and capacity utilization at 66.6%.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Defaults have so far come in somewhat below consensus expectation but some&lt;br /&gt;issuers just had their chance to buy some time by extending their maturity&lt;br /&gt;profile selling new crap debt, some did exchange offers and/or were able to raise&lt;br /&gt;some capital. However, things don't nearly look as good as indices may suggest in&lt;br /&gt;my view.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;So here is my conundrum, which is actually two-fold:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;1) High Yield indexes show stellar performance (even those including only&lt;br /&gt;investable mutual funds, such as Lipper), implying investors in HY land&lt;br /&gt;should be well ahead of their high water marks. Is that actually the case?&lt;br /&gt;And if it is not - which I assume - where has all the positive index performance&lt;br /&gt;come from?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;2) A very serious deterioration on the operations front meets a return of some&lt;br /&gt;+14% for the asset class since August 08. Why is it the case? Looks like the&lt;br /&gt;markets are incredibly confident they can buy themselves out of the doldrums.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Not sure if these questions best be addressed by micro- or macro economists&lt;br /&gt;as the former seem to be mostly wrong on particular things with the later being&lt;br /&gt;just as wrong in general.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256303291219.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 327px; height: 369px;" src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1256303291219.jpg" alt="" border="0" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-772722663868929753?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/10/hy-conundrum.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Distressed: long ZLOMREX 8.5% 2014</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/JOnAqSkHFlM/distressed-long-zlomrex-85-2014_20.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Tue, 20 Oct 2009 21:48:22 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-9074623253917000847</guid><description>&lt;a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/darpa/zlom-temp-including-pics"&gt;thesis @ ZH&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-9074623253917000847?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/10/distressed-long-zlomrex-85-2014_20.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>WATCH PRICE TARGET - SPX Corp SPW 7.625% 12/15/2014</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/qoFDo6zu6sk/watch-price-target-spx-corp-spw-7625_20.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Wed, 21 Oct 2009 00:12:33 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-5078914529038731883</guid><description>&lt;a href="http://www.wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/ss/SPX%20Corp.pdf"&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255867241890.jpg" height="336" width="632" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:180%;"&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/ss/SPX%20Corp.pdf"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;download SPX Corp Credit Snapshot&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;SPX Corp. is a diversified industrial company with its global operations organized into four&lt;br /&gt;segments:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Flow Technology&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Test and Measurement&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Thermal Equipment and Services&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Industrial Products and Services. &lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p&gt;SPX's markets include Food and Beverage, Power and Energy, Process Industries,&lt;br /&gt;Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning, General Industrial, and Transportation.&lt;br /&gt;As a global multi-industry manufacturer they have operations in more than 40&lt;br /&gt;countries and make revenues in more than 150 countries and focus on the&lt;br /&gt;global infrastructure development market, which accounts for approximately&lt;br /&gt;half of the company's revenues.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;2008 revenues by segments:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255868185156.jpg" height="82" width="636" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The company is a leading provider of transformers, cooling towers, heat exchangers and&lt;br /&gt;other industrial hardware for power and other infrastructure projects. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Geographical split of 2008 revenues and LT-assets&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255868465234.jpg" height="222" width="650" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;SPX's markets are cyclical and were negatively impacted by the global economic slowdown&lt;br /&gt;(f.i. the tools and diagnostics business is week because its dependence on the Auto sector)&lt;br /&gt;with industrial segment backlog down 44% from its peak.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255849044593.jpg" height="589" width="451" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255871893640.jpg" height="406" width="416" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="text-align: left;"&gt;The 4% Sequential Increase in Backlog in Q2 09 was driven by foreign currency fluctuations&lt;br /&gt;and dry cooling contracts in China.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255805506937.jpg" style="float: left;" height="404" width="627" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255868862703.jpg" height="201" width="639" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Longer term business perspectives are dependent on energy demand and energy&lt;br /&gt;infrastructure investment and SPX may benefit from its global diversification. However,&lt;br /&gt;management is not optimistic that SPX will benefit from US stiumulus since investments&lt;br /&gt;are mostly directed towards alternative energy.  &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The company historically operates at a relatively low leverage multiple.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255869050000.jpg" height="398" width="558" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The company does pay dividends in a USD 52 to 73MM annual range. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255869807578.jpg" height="22" width="856" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255869860093.jpg" height="19" width="865" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;...and engages in stock repurchases (113MM in Q1 09)&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255869993468.jpg" height="19" width="857" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;SPX does acquisitions frequently with the most significant recent deal being APV PLC, UK which&lt;br /&gt;was acquired in December 07 for GBP 250MM and contributed about USD 800MM in revenues. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;However, company management made a capital allocation commitment on July, 29th 2009&lt;br /&gt;(its most recent Q presenation) to stay away from stock repurchases or acquisitions and to&lt;br /&gt;reduce debt until they have reached a leverage multiple of 2x.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255806047218.jpg" height="439" width="578" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href="http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/SPW/749676869x0x309370/38f8868d-91a2-4141-87a5-46940bd9c963/spx%20Final%20Q2%202009%20Earnings_Printable%20Slides.pdf" title="q2 presentations" id="vxjq"&gt;link to Q2 2009 presentations&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255853693859.jpg" height="189" width="637" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Free cash flow guidance for 2009 is in the USD 230 to 270MM range (working capital improvements on&lt;br /&gt;lower revenue outlook and lower cash taxes).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255872617937.jpg" height="278" width="438" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255894031671.jpg" height="222" width="723" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the following are some links to most recent SPX Corp research notes. You&lt;br /&gt;will need your own log-in and password to read it. If you don't have one don't&lt;br /&gt;be depressed since the notes in general are not terribly informative. &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="padding-left: 30px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://portal.gs.com/gs/portal?st=1&amp;amp;action=action.binary&amp;amp;d=7558563&amp;amp;fn=/document.pdf" title="GS note" id="qvyy"&gt;GS&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/PubServlet?skey=R1BTLTMxMTgxMy0w&amp;amp;Name=GPS-311813-0.pdf" title="JPM note" id="nnso"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;JPM&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;a href="https://live.barcap.com/BC/barcaplive?menuCode=MENU_RSR_1010&amp;amp;url=%2FRSL%2Fservlets%2Fdv.search%3FdocviewID%3D1324994%26sourceClick%3DBH%26iframeDisplay%3DNO&amp;amp;show_nav=Y" title="barclays note" id="avty"&gt;Barclays&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="padding-left: 30px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://bofacapital.bankofamerica.com/servlet/DocServer/noinvalidate?cidocid=349686" title="boa note" id="kb53"&gt;Boa I&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="padding-left: 30px;"&gt;&lt;a href="https://bofacapital.bankofamerica.com/servlet/DocServer/noinvalidate?cidocid=351146" title="boa note II" id="dfvf"&gt;Boa II&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="padding-left: 30px;"&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;div class="field field-type-text field-field-desc"&gt;       &lt;div class="field-label"&gt;Investment Description: &lt;/div&gt;     &lt;div class="field-items"&gt;             &lt;div class="field-item odd"&gt;                     &lt;p&gt;&lt;img src="http://wp1158289.wp194.webpack.hosteurope.de/pix/1255853384218.jpg" height="381" width="619" /&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;Despite the low earnings visibility we are constructive on the 2014 notes as a long position&lt;br /&gt;with a price target of 101.0 (&lt;/span&gt;+503bp vs TSY 2.35&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;%) &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;based on the following key points:&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul  style="font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;generation of free cash flow&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt; low leverage&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;strong liquidity position (projected to be 1bln by year-end 2009)&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;clear commitment to reduce debt&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: justify;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;The interest payment dates for  these notes are June 15 and December 15. The notes are&lt;br /&gt;redeemable,  &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;in whole, or in part, at any time prior to maturity at a price equal to 100% of&lt;br /&gt;the principal amount plus a premium, plus accrued and unpaid interest.  In addition, at any&lt;br /&gt;time prior to December 15, 2010 SPX may redeem up to 35% of  the aggregate principal amount&lt;br /&gt;of the notes with the net cash proceeds of  certain equity offerings at a redemption price of&lt;br /&gt;107.625%, plus accrued and  unpaid interest. In case of a change of control transaction, SPX&lt;br /&gt;must offer to repurchase the notes at 101% of the aggregate principal amount of the notes&lt;br /&gt;repurchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest.The notes are unsecured and rank equally with&lt;br /&gt;all existing and future  unsecured senior indebtedness, but are effectively junior to the senior&lt;br /&gt;credit  facilities. The indenture governing the notes contains covenants that, among  other things,&lt;br /&gt;limit the company's ability to incur liens, enter into sale and leaseback  transactions  and&lt;br /&gt;consummate some mergers.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;At December 31, 2008, SPX was in  compliance with all covenant provisions of these senior notes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;SPX has agreed to  conduct a registered exchange offer for the notes and will use commercially&lt;br /&gt;reasonable efforts to exchange the notes for a new issue of identical debt  securities within 150&lt;br /&gt;days from February 28, 2009, if the notes are not freely  tradable before this date, and file under&lt;br /&gt;certain circumstances a shelf  registration statement to cover resales of the notes and to cause&lt;br /&gt;the  registration statement to be declared effective by the SEC. If they fail to  satisfy these obligations,&lt;br /&gt;they have agreed to pay additional interest to holders  of the notes under certain circumstances.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;SPX has a $2.26 billion (originally $2.3 billion) senior secured credit facility consisting of a $600&lt;br /&gt;million revolving credit facility, $712 million (originally $750 million) term loan and $950 million&lt;br /&gt;Foreign Credit Instrument Facility. All of these facilities mature September 21, 2012. The credit&lt;br /&gt;facility is secured by 100% of all material domestic subsidiary stock and 65% of the company's&lt;br /&gt;major foreign subsidiaries' stock. All borrowings are guaranteed by SPX's domestic subsidiaries&lt;br /&gt;and SPX will guarantee all foreign subsidiary borrowings.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;The credit facility has a springing lien if the corporate family rating is rated Ba2 or less (or&lt;br /&gt;withdrawn) by Moody's and BB or less (or withdrawn) by S&amp;amp;P. The revolving credit facility is used&lt;br /&gt;for working capital and letters of credit needs. It could be used for the company's stock repurchase&lt;br /&gt;program. The term loan amortizes 10% per annum with a bullet payment at maturity. The Foreign&lt;br /&gt;Credit Instrument Facility is used to support SPX's foreign operations and may be utilized for the&lt;br /&gt;issuance of performance letters of credit and other forms of bank undertakings. The senior secured&lt;br /&gt;credit facility also benefits from priority of claims it has in relation to the company's $549 million in&lt;br /&gt;senior unsecured notes. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div&gt;  &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;The 2014 notes are junior to the obligations of the $2.26 billion senior secured credit facility.&lt;br /&gt;The unsecured notes are pari passu to each other and are the most junior capital within SPX's&lt;br /&gt;capital structure.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;div style="text-align: left;"&gt;  &lt;/div&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;SPX maintains a $130 million accounts receivable program, which is annually renewable. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;Noticeable liabilities include an underfunded pension- and underfunded post retirement plan&lt;br /&gt;at &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;USD 303MM and USD 148MM respectively. An operating lease adjustment at 8x annual&lt;br /&gt;rental results in a USD 412MM debt equivalent.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;Covenants:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="text-align: left; font-family: Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;Leverage 3.25x&lt;br /&gt;Coverage 3.5x&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p face="Verdana" style="text-align: left;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;span style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;Liquidity as per 6/09:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p style="font-family: Verdana; text-align: left;"&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: left;font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;At the end of Q2 SPX had USD 435MM in cash and USD 325.9 of availability under the&lt;br /&gt;revolver and USD 274.3 of  available issuance capacity under our foreign trade facility. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p  style="font-family:Verdana;"&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;span style="font-size:85%;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;        &lt;/div&gt;         &lt;/div&gt; &lt;/div&gt;        &lt;div class="field-label"&gt;Catalysts/Key Risk Factors: &lt;/div&gt;                                       &lt;p&gt;Q3 announcement: on October 29th, 2009&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt; &lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Risk Factors:&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;ul&gt;&lt;li&gt;Economic environment&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Change in financial policy&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Acquisitions &lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Stock repurchases&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Foreign exchange&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Raw material costs&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Competition&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Litigation&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;Accounting&lt;/li&gt;&lt;li&gt;...&lt;/li&gt;&lt;/ul&gt;Disclaimer: D your own work and do not to rely upon this short write-up which&lt;br /&gt;just represents a personal view and is no recommendations to buy or sell any securities.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-5078914529038731883?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/10/watch-price-target-spx-corp-spw-7625_20.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Making fun of bankers still on the rise</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/Ywv50rVNaUg/making-fun-of-bankers-still-on-rise.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Thu, 15 Oct 2009 05:52:56 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-6990950367934040337</guid><description>&lt;object width="320" height="266" class="BLOG_video_class" id="BLOG_video-c41f39476ef7e272" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0"&gt;&lt;param name="movie" 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src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-6990950367934040337?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/10/making-fun-of-bankers-still-on-rise.html</feedburner:origLink><enclosure url="http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~5/JJ7JsfWdVF8/video-play.mp4" length="0" type="video/mp4" /><feedburner:origEnclosureLink>http://www.blogger.com/video-play.mp4?contentId=c41f39476ef7e272&amp;type=video%2Fmp4</feedburner:origEnclosureLink></item><item><title>Distressed Hedge Fund and Fund of Fund Indices</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/qwZPwcpLIyw/distressed-hedge-fund-and-fund-of-fund.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Wed, 14 Oct 2009 03:26:16 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-8542231575300498716</guid><description>&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/StWnQpc1k3I/AAAAAAAAAmw/jU0ZSH_JeyQ/s1600-h/Neu+Bitmap.bmp"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 256px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/StWnQpc1k3I/AAAAAAAAAmw/jU0ZSH_JeyQ/s400/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5392400033292587890" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-8542231575300498716?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/StWnQpc1k3I/AAAAAAAAAmw/jU0ZSH_JeyQ/s72-c/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/10/distressed-hedge-fund-and-fund-of-fund.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>A sound banker...</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/VqhPWg3gsQI/sound-banker.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Mon, 24 Aug 2009 01:12:02 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-7239740936070543654</guid><description>&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A Sound banker, alas! Is not one who foresees danger and avoids&lt;br /&gt;it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional&lt;br /&gt;and orthodox way along with his fellows, so that no one can re-&lt;br /&gt;ally blame him. &lt;br /&gt;John Maynard Keynes, "The Consequences to the Banks&lt;br /&gt;of the Collapse in Money Values," 1931 as stated in CHARLES&lt;br /&gt;CALOMIRIS's Jackson Hole paper: The Subprime Turmoil: What’s&lt;br /&gt;Old, What’s New, and What’s Next&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2008/Calomiris.03.12.09.pdf&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-7239740936070543654?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/08/sound-banker.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Business spending looks sort of weak...</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/ujq4eUIXSaY/business-spending-looks-sort-of-weak.html</link><author>noreply@blogger.com (chartist)</author><pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 01:25:47 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-5676625793685470042</guid><description>&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_qPOGUD58m4Q/Snfwg5ity7I/AAAAAAAAATc/BDNvlsAtdk0/s1600-h/bus_inv.bmp"&gt;&lt;img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 262px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_qPOGUD58m4Q/Snfwg5ity7I/AAAAAAAAATc/BDNvlsAtdk0/s400/bus_inv.bmp" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5366021929028144050" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-5676625793685470042?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_qPOGUD58m4Q/Snfwg5ity7I/AAAAAAAAATc/BDNvlsAtdk0/s72-c/bus_inv.bmp" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/08/business-spending-looks-sort-of-weak.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>USEC</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/vqUANQsy2P8/test-usec.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2009 07:38:52 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-363213992284632926</guid><description>USEC's numbers continue to look crappy, bonds traded down on 89MM volume to&lt;br /&gt;high 50's when the collapse of the American Centrifuge Plant project was&lt;br /&gt;announced. Stock down from 6.2 to 3.89 (not reflected in snapshot numbers yet).&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;A very unstable situation with no obvious compelling reason to have&lt;br /&gt;a closer look.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/17776998/USEC-Inc" title="View USEC Inc on Scribd" style="margin: 12px auto 6px; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; display: block; text-decoration: underline;"&gt;USEC Inc&lt;/a&gt;&lt;object codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" id="doc_243955705335771" name="doc_243955705335771" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="450" height="500"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;param name="movie" value="http://d.scribd.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=17776998&amp;amp;access_key=key-1r2gb8hql2tcbuuwpphk&amp;amp;page=1&amp;amp;version=1&amp;amp;viewMode=list"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;param name="quality" value="high"&gt;&lt;param name="play" value="true"&gt;&lt;param name="loop" value="true"&gt;&lt;param name="scale" value="showall"&gt;&lt;param name="wmode" value="opaque"&gt;&lt;param name="devicefont" value="false"&gt;&lt;param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"&gt;&lt;param name="menu" value="true"&gt;&lt;param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"&gt;&lt;param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"&gt;&lt;param name="salign" value=""&gt;&lt;param name="mode" value="list"&gt;&lt;embed src="http://d.scribd.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=17776998&amp;amp;access_key=key-1r2gb8hql2tcbuuwpphk&amp;amp;page=1&amp;amp;version=1&amp;amp;viewMode=list" quality="high" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" play="true" loop="true" scale="showall" wmode="opaque" devicefont="false" bgcolor="#ffffff" name="doc_243955705335771_object" menu="true" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" salign="" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" mode="list" width="450" height="500"&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;&lt;/object&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-363213992284632926?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/07/test-usec.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Insane Material Economy</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/-tgZ7SbGgl0/insane-material-economy.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Wed, 29 Jul 2009 07:25:17 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-4691598328376429892</guid><description>For every one garbage can of waste "YOU"&lt;br /&gt;put out on the curb, 70 garbage cans of waste&lt;br /&gt;were made upstream just to make the junk&lt;br /&gt;in that one garbage can you put out on the&lt;br /&gt;curb (as per Worldwatch 1994). Think twice&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;"YOU" needs some clarification. For demonstrative&lt;br /&gt;purposes the assumption is made that you are a&lt;br /&gt;U.S. citizen which is a pretty dire hypothesis in &lt;br /&gt;this context. However, wherever you are you better&lt;br /&gt;think twice before purchasing anything and everyone &lt;br /&gt;executing and/or investing in ideas to increase the&lt;br /&gt;efficiency in our unsustainable materials economy&lt;br /&gt;should get an extra hug.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-4691598328376429892?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/07/insane-material-economy.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>The Story of Stuff</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/s_Kd71OY7W8/story-of-stuff.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Tue, 14 Jul 2009 02:22:45 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-2704997911643176785</guid><description>&lt;object width="640" height="505"&gt;&lt;param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/gLBE5QAYXp8&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;rel=0"&gt;&lt;/param&gt;&lt;param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"&gt;&lt;/param&gt;&lt;param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"&gt;&lt;/param&gt;&lt;embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/gLBE5QAYXp8&amp;hl=en&amp;fs=1&amp;rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="505"&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;&lt;/object&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-2704997911643176785?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/07/story-of-stuff.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>BIZ annual report released</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/Myja1XYw874/biz-annual-report-released.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:47:14 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-3092679114036032761</guid><description>http://www.biz.org/publ/arpdf/ar2009e.pdf?noframes=1&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkicgsJb3qI/AAAAAAAAAk0/abbcpz4He2s/s1600-h/Neu+Bitmap.bmp"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 218px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkicgsJb3qI/AAAAAAAAAk0/abbcpz4He2s/s400/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5352700242550316706" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;"What seems clear is that the deterioration in credit quality will generate&lt;br /&gt;more losses on banks’ loan books and other credit exposures (see Chapter III).&lt;br /&gt;Banks may therefore have an incentive to delay recognising losses, aided&lt;br /&gt;by accounting rules that provide management more discretion over when to&lt;br /&gt;write down assets. Taxpayers will not want to be exposed to greater potential&lt;br /&gt;losses, but key financial institutions are likely to require more government&lt;br /&gt;support in order to facilitate the required adjustments, to restore confidence&lt;br /&gt;in the financial system and to restart lending on a sustainable basis."&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a title="View Biz Report on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/16918348/Biz-Report" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;"&gt;Biz Report&lt;/a&gt; &lt;object codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" id="doc_326565352333169" name="doc_326565352333169" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" align="middle" height="500" width="100%" &gt; 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&lt;/object&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-3092679114036032761?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkicgsJb3qI/AAAAAAAAAk0/abbcpz4He2s/s72-c/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/biz-annual-report-released.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Stock Prices Divided by a Ten-Year Moving Average of Earnings, 1880-2009</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/ogh3vbq6oHk/stock-prices-devided-by-ten-year-moving.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Sun, 28 Jun 2009 09:57:32 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-7333693481421521417</guid><description>&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkcYrjsykMI/AAAAAAAAAks/3idE89IzZNc/s1600-h/killer+chart.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 243px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkcYrjsykMI/AAAAAAAAAks/3idE89IzZNc/s400/killer+chart.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5352273818749669570" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Source: Brad DeLong, The Simplest Possible Behavioral Finance Bubble&lt;br /&gt;Model, June 09&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-7333693481421521417?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkcYrjsykMI/AAAAAAAAAks/3idE89IzZNc/s72-c/killer+chart.jpg" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/stock-prices-devided-by-ten-year-moving.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Killer Chart on foreign investor demand for US government sponsored debt</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/W29FZG5-j2o/killer-chart-on-foreign-investor-demand.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Sun, 28 Jun 2009 00:24:54 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-9011247544564740410</guid><description>Look at this chart which shows how foreign investor demand for&lt;br /&gt;Freddie Mac debt has crashed from 50% to 20% within one year!&lt;br /&gt;Thanks to movie character Tyler Durden from Zero Hedge who brought&lt;br /&gt;this to our attention. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkcQcJRHxhI/AAAAAAAAAkk/dzUbDEmRJCo/s1600-h/killer+chart.jpg"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 331px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkcQcJRHxhI/AAAAAAAAAkk/dzUbDEmRJCo/s400/killer+chart.jpg" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5352264757863237138" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;So far there seemed to have been a common believe that demand for U.S. securities&lt;br /&gt;will hold up sufficiently well. This is mostly based on the fact(oid) that US&lt;br /&gt;securities markets are so deep and liquid, far developed and well ruled by law,...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I broadly agree but submit a few more charts showing the same trend on other&lt;br /&gt;types of U.S. government related debt and I will think twice. And so may others &lt;br /&gt;which would be reflected in market prices. Generally I am optimistic that US &lt;br /&gt;funding will be addressed but there seems to be a fast growing need to work on&lt;br /&gt;and formulate an exit strategy.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-9011247544564740410?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkcQcJRHxhI/AAAAAAAAAkk/dzUbDEmRJCo/s72-c/killer+chart.jpg" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/killer-chart-on-foreign-investor-demand.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Wrong Only</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/j8Co1z2OHNs/wrong-only.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:42:02 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-8278782077300340861</guid><description>The liquidity crisis is over while the credit crisis is still ongoing. &lt;br /&gt;How to make money and to protect capital in this environment remains&lt;br /&gt;to be the question. Dominant forces (partly working against each other)&lt;br /&gt;are de-leveraging, saving and high demand for cash, re-deployment of cash&lt;br /&gt;into equities and risk markets, artificial economic stimulus effects,&lt;br /&gt;inventory liquidation, decreasing earnings due to economic weakness and&lt;br /&gt;and lower leverage. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Long only managers have in particular been challenged, given that most&lt;br /&gt;of them want fully exposed into the downturn. And ironically they had&lt;br /&gt;such large exposure even without the direct application of leverage to&lt;br /&gt;their portfolios. However, since equity is a leveraged asset class per se&lt;br /&gt;(especially when it comes to finanicals) their losses were very competitive&lt;br /&gt;compared to other strategies. Changing risk appetite helped some of them to&lt;br /&gt;partly miss out the upside of the quick bounce. Now a lot have re-deployed&lt;br /&gt;cash which was sitting on the sidelines to chase performance even when&lt;br /&gt;there is very weak fundamental support to the harsh up-move. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;How much sense does the long only approach make going forward and how much&lt;br /&gt;faith will investors have? In my view it makes more sense to apply a more&lt;br /&gt;flexible approach. Historical perceptions based on historical data should&lt;br /&gt;give way to a more opportunistic and selective approach. Shortened time&lt;br /&gt;horizons with a focus on price discrepancies and taking money off the table,&lt;br /&gt;when asset getting close to being rich. The use of shorting, hedging, leverage,&lt;br /&gt;and using derivatives all seem to make perfect sense to me.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-8278782077300340861?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">1</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/wrong-only.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>U.S. Senate Banking Committee following the FED in getting heavily involved in Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/cCaNj8JxyTA/us-senate-banking-committee-following.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:00:07 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-3760858648745468377</guid><description>&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;by www.highyieldblog.com&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The banking committee discussion on derivatives included a comprehensive&lt;br /&gt;list of (well known) issues of the field of financial weapons of mass destruction.&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;Derivatives, securitizations and off-balance sheet exposure all were&lt;br /&gt;contributing factors to the current crisis (as they have been in 1987&lt;br /&gt;and 1998). Credit Default Swaps seem to have been the hot topic.&lt;br /&gt;CDS are often falsely compared with insurance but actually I think&lt;br /&gt;they should just be seen to mimic a long- or short credit position rather&lt;br /&gt;than representing an insurance contract. The only difference is that&lt;br /&gt;financial institutions do have to properly account for credit positions&lt;br /&gt;which they obviously don't have to for CDS.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;I have made a small list of the topics covered (they were discussed mostly&lt;br /&gt; on a very general level if not to say that only phrases have been exchanged).&lt;br /&gt;I don't think that it makes any sense to discuss any of them in great length,&lt;br /&gt;because they are all knowns and most of what has to be done seems to be&lt;br /&gt;quite obvious. However, at the end of this post you will find a list of the topics&lt;br /&gt;discussed (in no particular order and of course incomplete):&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;But had I fallen asleep during the hearing or was there a ban of a few topics?&lt;br /&gt;I have in no word heard anyone talking about accounting or mark-to-market.&lt;br /&gt;Also structured finance (ABS's, CDO's, etc.), which in my view is a huge deal,&lt;br /&gt;has rarely been touched even when unrealized/unrecognized losses are huge&lt;br /&gt;(and continue to be under development). This factor may even a (bad) reason&lt;br /&gt;for regulatory bodies to slow down the needed changes because institutions/&lt;br /&gt;government have a hard time to stomach (and finance) such further losses.&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;So I maybe have a slight idea why they did not want to touch this too much&lt;br /&gt;but accounting definitely is another major topic which has been addressed at all.&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;Treasury secretary to the President: "Hey Mister President, our&lt;br /&gt;WS friends just wiped out the whole banking system, largely with&lt;br /&gt;instruments they did (partly not understand) and did not have to&lt;br /&gt;account for properly, should we fix it right away or should we first&lt;br /&gt;dry to bring in some more equity from dumb SWF funds and&lt;br /&gt;some greenshoot dummies?"&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;There also was, long overdue, discussion of the "empty creditor" problem. I&lt;br /&gt;missed clear language on a solution on this. In my view every debtholder&lt;br /&gt;(or debtholders acting as a group) which hold(s) a "blocking position" in&lt;br /&gt;one class of debt instruments should be subject to disclosure similar as&lt;br /&gt;equity holders. They should fully disclose their holdings (insiders should&lt;br /&gt;do so in the same way) and they should have to disclose all their&lt;br /&gt;derivatives dealings in this company (same thing with insiders).&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;Junior Credit Hedgie to his boss: "Hey master of the universe,&lt;br /&gt;our huge basis trades which we so easily were able to put on&lt;br /&gt;our credit arb book during the crisis when everyone had to de-lever&lt;br /&gt;- you remember those with the wide and (almost) riskless spreads&lt;br /&gt;may not be available to us in the next credit cycle because even&lt;br /&gt;the banking committee has recognized what is going on with this so called&lt;br /&gt;"extra return" basis trades". Master of the universe: "Oh my god!&lt;br /&gt;Do you mean those where we can put the companies into bankruptcy&lt;br /&gt;by not answering the phone when they need us for any kind of out of&lt;br /&gt;court restructuring?" "Yes master, but don't worry, the companies&lt;br /&gt;will all hit the wall before the new  rules are in place."&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;One final topic I wanted to mention is the enormous difficulty everyone seems&lt;br /&gt;to have to evaluate and trade these extraordinarily complex structured securities&lt;br /&gt;(CDO's &amp; ABS's). This is especially the case since the market has turned.&lt;br /&gt;The talent to master such challenges was flowing freely until prices turned south&lt;br /&gt;but since then no one seems to have the slightest clue if they should trade at&lt;br /&gt;10 or 80 cents on the dollar. I tell you something: There is no problem at all,&lt;br /&gt;other than that the prices moves and risen liquidity discounts have wiped out&lt;br /&gt;large portions of equity. There is no lack of willing buyers.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The extend to which the models have been false is not the problem, it is rather&lt;br /&gt;that the input variables have to be changed. And come one, we are talking&lt;br /&gt;about pools of assets withing asset classes which are not completely exotics.&lt;br /&gt;Most of them are well understood and hundreds of billions and more than a&lt;br /&gt;trillion in size. But certainly everyone thinks we are talking about and dealing&lt;br /&gt;in rare stamps.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Here is my suggestion: Let every CDO and ABS transaction done by a&lt;br /&gt;broker/dealer to be print on TRACE (the reporting system for USD corporate&lt;br /&gt;bond trading) in the same way ad B/D's have to report all USD denominated&lt;br /&gt;corporate bonds trades. Within a few days everyone who has a basic&lt;br /&gt;understanding of securitizations will be able to price each of those tens of&lt;br /&gt;thousands of "exotic" instruments on each layer of the capital structure&lt;br /&gt;within a range of at least 5 points.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Bank CFO to Bank CEO: "Vikram, call the government".&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It is true that only a few trades take place each day but it is just not true that&lt;br /&gt;one could not price them based on some market price points. At least it will&lt;br /&gt;be clear than someone could not mark a junior tranche above the level of&lt;br /&gt;where senior tranches are trading. There are other relatively simple ways&lt;br /&gt;to improve transparency in those structures as well but I think no one is&lt;br /&gt;interested in them. To mention two: require all dealers transacting in such&lt;br /&gt;securities to post the full set of documents (indentures, trustee reports,&lt;br /&gt;payment reports, marketing books, rating reports, prospectuses, term&lt;br /&gt;sheets and a summary of the capital structure/waterfall features) into&lt;br /&gt;a central and freely available website.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Require or incentives to simplify capital structures, structural&lt;br /&gt;features and prospectuses.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Obviously the market prices of structured instruments are lower than&lt;br /&gt;most would like them to be but I think recognizing will work, remove&lt;br /&gt;the zombie factor from the system and re-mobilize private capital. &lt;br /&gt;The later one most probably only over a longer period of time I guess.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;List of issues discussed in the banking committee hearing: &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;- counterparty risk, systemic risk (too interconnected and/or too&lt;br /&gt;big to fail), centralized clearing and notional risk reduction,&lt;br /&gt;exchange trading, netting, margins/collateral,  capital requirements&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- customized versus standardized contracts, derivatives written on&lt;br /&gt;illiquid cash instruments, future innovation, link of derivatives markets&lt;br /&gt;to securities markets, replication of economics without purchasing&lt;br /&gt;instruments, shorting without securities lending in cash market,&lt;br /&gt;legitimacy of exotic and non standard products (more than half is&lt;br /&gt;standardized)&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- transparency, efficiency, disclosure rules, reporting, price discovery,&lt;br /&gt;electronic transmission of price data, trade information warehouse,&lt;br /&gt;detailed reporting to regulators and dissemination of aggregates to&lt;br /&gt;public, disclosure of material contracts by companies, hidden ownership&lt;br /&gt;issues (f.i. equity total return swaps to avoid disclosure)&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- insurable interest/credit protection as source of incentive for lenders&lt;br /&gt;to put "empty creditors" into bankruptcy&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- regulation of participants and marketplaces, enforcement against&lt;br /&gt;fraud, shutdown of problematic practices, regulatory bodies (SEC,&lt;br /&gt;CFTC, FED, Systemic Risk Regulator),  capturing of all regulatory gaps,&lt;br /&gt;risk of creation of perverse incentives. regulating dealers, settlement&lt;br /&gt;process, encouragement for exchange trading and standardization&lt;br /&gt;(higher capital requirements for non-standardized products), need for&lt;br /&gt;international cooperation, standardization challenges, circumvention&lt;br /&gt;of dealers to hide transactions&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- benefits of OTC derivatives to society (f.i. important to manage risk,&lt;br /&gt;influence on capital formation), private and social costs and benefits,&lt;br /&gt;risk of regulation for smaller players, retail investor protection&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- problems of OTC- and dealer centric markets, bilateral transactions,&lt;br /&gt;customer margin segregation, exotic transactions, systemic risk,&lt;br /&gt;integrity, business conduct&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- dealers profits and incentives (information advantage/anonymity), risk&lt;br /&gt;management processes (operational risk, model risk, financial risk) and&lt;br /&gt;challenges (complex, opaque, illiquid, difficult to value), risk controls,&lt;br /&gt;trading limits, stress testing, types of market participants, real economic&lt;br /&gt;hedges versus investment/speculation &amp; trading, credit procedures for&lt;br /&gt;counterparties&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;- buy side investor concerns, need for transparency and third party as&lt;br /&gt;holders of collateral, backlog of unconfirmed and unprocessed trades&lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-3760858648745468377?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/us-senate-banking-committee-following.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Nice joke from Dr. Henry Hu in front of the Banking Committee on Derivatives</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/YhqMx742_Gs/nice-joke-from-dr-hu-in-front-of.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:22:40 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-1076435658196369513</guid><description>Three econometricians go out hunting in Canada and see deer.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The one econometrician shoots and misses three feet on&lt;br /&gt;the left. The second econometrician shoots and misses three&lt;br /&gt;feet on the right. The third econometrician does not shoot&lt;br /&gt;but shouts: "We have got it! We have got it!"&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-1076435658196369513?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/nice-joke-from-dr-hu-in-front-of.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Share of the financial sector in GDP (in per cent)</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/PA6ymb1qu_I/share-of-financial-sector-in-gdp-in-per.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:45:17 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-4679118071980517761</guid><description>The Japan banking problem in context...&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkCV_7ZGXeI/AAAAAAAAAkM/6zOguMGwNzM/s1600-h/Neu+Bitmap.bmp"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 206px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkCV_7ZGXeI/AAAAAAAAAkM/6zOguMGwNzM/s400/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350441282823413218" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-4679118071980517761?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SkCV_7ZGXeI/AAAAAAAAAkM/6zOguMGwNzM/s72-c/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">3</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/share-of-financial-sector-in-gdp-in-per.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>long term CPI chart</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/6dYaz6tPDwg/long-term-cpi-chart.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2009 22:39:42 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-1496327865736285354</guid><description>&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SjskX0JHsXI/AAAAAAAAAj8/gcWVHlcNQJg/s1600-h/cpi-june-18-09.gif"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 290px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SjskX0JHsXI/AAAAAAAAAj8/gcWVHlcNQJg/s400/cpi-june-18-09.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5348908973985083762" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;chart: Arbor Research via Barry's big picture blog&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-1496327865736285354?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SjskX0JHsXI/AAAAAAAAAj8/gcWVHlcNQJg/s72-c/cpi-june-18-09.gif" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/long-term-cpi-chart.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Hedge fund leverage</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/GWk3ByoKyKE/hedge-fund-leverage.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2009 23:59:32 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-6585812500734141557</guid><description>&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SjdB45ToPqI/AAAAAAAAAj0/sn6--6r1j5E/s1600-h/Neu+Bitmap.bmp"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 336px; height: 400px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SjdB45ToPqI/AAAAAAAAAj0/sn6--6r1j5E/s400/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5347815528237383330" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Via: EFSR&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-6585812500734141557?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SjdB45ToPqI/AAAAAAAAAj0/sn6--6r1j5E/s72-c/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/hedge-fund-leverage.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>More adversity arived quite soon...</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/2ddZNQ_Otc0/more-adversity-arived-quite-soon.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Mon, 08 Jun 2009 11:52:17 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-5598617469718706912</guid><description>&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;US bank stress tests assumed the unemployment rate to reach&lt;br /&gt;8.8 % in Q2 under the "more adverse" scenario as far as I understood&lt;br /&gt;it. We have reached 9.4 % right now and I guess we can&lt;br /&gt;be confident to be well ahead of the assumed more adverse number&lt;br /&gt;of 9.7 in Q4. I am still wondering under which assumptions investors&lt;br /&gt;have been buying the USD 50bln+ equity offerings from those banks. &lt;br /&gt;Maybe they thought further loosened accounting standards will allow&lt;br /&gt;them to mark them up under any circumstances.&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/Si1bvfh6vhI/AAAAAAAAAjs/gxLI4FfeL60/s1600-h/unemployment+rate.gif"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 286px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/Si1bvfh6vhI/AAAAAAAAAjs/gxLI4FfeL60/s400/unemployment+rate.gif" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5345029204234386962" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-5598617469718706912?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/Si1bvfh6vhI/AAAAAAAAAjs/gxLI4FfeL60/s72-c/unemployment+rate.gif" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/more-adversity-arived-quite-soon.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Update on Barry Eichengreen's depression comparison charts</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/tuYuKPAyGWM/update-on-barry-eichengreens-depression.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2009 13:28:50 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-1127957932900172687</guid><description>Even when there is less demand for great depression&lt;br /&gt;comparisons these days I find Barry Eichengreen's &lt;br /&gt;charts very useful. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;However, the one and only chart which I would wish &lt;br /&gt;to be included is wealth destruction. I guess the &lt;br /&gt;data are not easily available but I think we might&lt;br /&gt;be far ahead in this regard this time.&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-1127957932900172687?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/update-on-barry-eichengreens-depression.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Be frightened of activist investors being loaded up on basis trades</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/YB-UBPTzMbw/be-frightened-of-activit-investors.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2009 01:14:25 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-7269093145872524467</guid><description>&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;It is no question that an unseen wave of corporate defaults is&lt;br /&gt;ahead of us. However, this time the default cycle may turn out to be&lt;br /&gt;even somewhat more vicious because investors including activists have&lt;br /&gt;loaded up the boat with basis trades (long debt versus long credit default&lt;br /&gt;protection as a hedge. When the crisis was in full swing those investors&lt;br /&gt;left standing had the chance to acquire such positions at very attractive&lt;br /&gt;spreads because prices of cash debt instruments (bonds and loans) have fallen&lt;br /&gt;more than the derivative instruments related to them (CDS). Funds positioned&lt;br /&gt;in such trades can make attractive arbitrage returns on those trades because&lt;br /&gt;they lock in a positive carry with very little risk involved. However, think &lt;br /&gt;about large hedge funds who have build cash debt positions which enable them&lt;br /&gt;to block outcomes of restructuring efforts when a company comes under stress or&lt;br /&gt;holders of basis trades who team up. They have an incentive to put companies&lt;br /&gt;in bankruptcy when it comes to such restructuring efforts because they make&lt;br /&gt;gains on their CDS position and it would be naive to believe that they always&lt;br /&gt;are just hedged. Whenever there is a chance to hold a blocking in maybe a small&lt;br /&gt;class of securities for a relatively low dollar in a company with a high chance&lt;br /&gt;of running against their debt wall they may load up the boat three or more times &lt;br /&gt;with CDS in order to get a very attractive return when they put the company in&lt;br /&gt;bankruptcy. In my view such a strategy should not be legal but I doubt that&lt;br /&gt;it is and there may be plenty of work around solutions as long as the otc &lt;br /&gt;derivatives market (about 10 times world GDP in size) remains unregulated. &lt;br /&gt;CDS often gets confused with insurance. It actually is long or short credit&lt;br /&gt;but not insurance. The only difference to long or short cash credit is that&lt;br /&gt;financials  do not report them and have no equity to support it's risk ;-) &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;In insurance land, as far as I know, you need do have an insurable interest&lt;br /&gt;and it is unlawful to insure your hated neighbors house. &lt;br /&gt;house.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-7269093145872524467?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">1</thr:total><category domain="http://rss.financialcontent.com/stocksymbol">CDS</category><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/be-frightened-of-activit-investors.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Long term ratio of financial services wages to non-farm private sector wages</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/qYcfCLIdIMo/long-term-ratio-of-financial-services.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:41:04 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-2724460966465623159</guid><description>&lt;a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SiYMplaIw-I/AAAAAAAAAjc/nywW8CxBMjg/s1600-h/Neu+Bitmap.bmp"&gt;&lt;img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 367px; height: 400px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SiYMplaIw-I/AAAAAAAAAjc/nywW8CxBMjg/s400/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5342971916477580258" /&gt;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;pre style="font-family: FixedSys,Courier; line-height: 12px;"&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Hat tip zero hedge - Via: T2 partners - Source: Ariell Reshef, University of Virginia, Thomas Philippon, NYU, WSW, 5/14/09&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-2724460966465623159?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><media:thumbnail xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/" url="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_iP2-ePwdHM4/SiYMplaIw-I/AAAAAAAAAjc/nywW8CxBMjg/s72-c/Neu+Bitmap.bmp" height="72" width="72" /><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">0</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/06/long-term-ratio-of-financial-services.html</feedburner:origLink></item><item><title>Performance attribution</title><link>http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/hyb/~3/ESWi1SypXWI/performance-attribution.html</link><author>highyieldblog@gmail.com (High-Yield Blog)</author><pubDate>Thu, 28 May 2009 01:53:47 PDT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-547968533665698715.post-5819912990305055223</guid><description>I am starting to think about my summer reading. My list&lt;br /&gt;will include stuff that I think has a good chance of&lt;br /&gt;recharging my shattered confidence as an investment manager. This&lt;br /&gt;is necessary after what I have experienced during the [ongoing]&lt;br /&gt;crisis*. There are two ways to generate (positive or negative) investment&lt;br /&gt;returns: luck and skill. The book largely is about telling the difference... &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;contact me if you like to get a printable file &lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;* thank you Clear Channel for repayment of my bonds due Mai 15th&lt;br /&gt;and thank you MGM for resolving your short term liquidity issues &lt;br /&gt; &lt;br /&gt;&lt;a title="View Colin - Fixed Income Attribution - Full Book on Scribd" href="http://www.scribd.com/doc/6911798/Colin-Fixed-Income-Attribution-Full-Book" style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block; text-decoration: underline;"&gt;Colin - Fixed Income Attribution - Full Book&lt;/a&gt; &lt;object codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0" id="doc_221846444215131" name="doc_221846444215131" classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" align="middle" height="500" width="100%" rel="media:document" resource="http://d.scribd.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=6911798&amp;access_key=key-1sbm86owc1v3lg2rkwt&amp;page=1&amp;version=1&amp;viewMode=" xmlns:media="http://search.yahoo.com/searchmonkey/media/" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/terms/" &gt;  &lt;param name="movie" value="http://d.scribd.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=6911798&amp;access_key=key-1sbm86owc1v3lg2rkwt&amp;page=1&amp;version=1&amp;viewMode="&gt;   &lt;param name="quality" value="high"&gt;   &lt;param name="play" value="true"&gt;  &lt;param name="loop" value="true"&gt;   &lt;param name="scale" value="showall"&gt;  &lt;param name="wmode" value="opaque"&gt;   &lt;param name="devicefont" value="false"&gt;  &lt;param name="bgcolor" value="#ffffff"&gt;   &lt;param name="menu" value="true"&gt;  &lt;param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"&gt;   &lt;param name="allowScriptAccess" value="always"&gt;   &lt;param name="salign" value=""&gt;        &lt;embed src="http://d.scribd.com/ScribdViewer.swf?document_id=6911798&amp;access_key=key-1sbm86owc1v3lg2rkwt&amp;page=1&amp;version=1&amp;viewMode=" quality="high" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" play="true" loop="true" scale="showall" wmode="opaque" devicefont="false" bgcolor="#ffffff" name="doc_221846444215131_object" menu="true" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" salign="" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" align="middle"  height="500" width="100%"&gt;&lt;/embed&gt;             &lt;span rel="media:thumbnail" href="http://i.scribd.com/profiles/images/4o4yroyocucm3-thumb.jpg"&gt;       &lt;span property="media:title"&gt;Colin - Fixed Income Attribution - Full Book&lt;/span&gt;   &lt;span property="dc:creator"&gt;api_user_11797_swapnilsharma.iitd&lt;/span&gt;       &lt;span property="dc:type" content="Text"&gt;    &lt;/object&gt; &lt;div style="margin: 6px auto 3px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 12px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; -x-system-font: none; display: block;"&gt;    &lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/upload" style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;Publish at Scribd&lt;/a&gt; or &lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/browse" style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;explore&lt;/a&gt; others:            &lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/explore/HowtoGuides-Manuals/" style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;How-to-Guides &amp; Manu&lt;/a&gt;              &lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/explore/Books/" style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;Books&lt;/a&gt;              &lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/explore/Books/Fiction" style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;Fiction&lt;/a&gt;                  &lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/tag/money" style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;money&lt;/a&gt;              &lt;a href="http://www.scribd.com/tag/book" style="text-decoration: underline;"&gt;book&lt;/a&gt;       &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div class="blogger-post-footer"&gt;&lt;img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/547968533665698715-5819912990305055223?l=www.highyieldblog.com'/&gt;&lt;/div&gt;</description><thr:total xmlns:thr="http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0">1</thr:total><feedburner:origLink>http://www.highyieldblog.com/2009/05/performance-attribution.html</feedburner:origLink></item></channel></rss>
