EURUSD

Trading strategy: waiting for a break above 1.3700 to consider a long position

Support on the 61.8% of 1.3435-1.3735 at 1.3550 remains intact after the 2nd test but the euro’s recovery is limited, facing intra-day resistance around 1.3610. In case of a rally, 1.3690/00 is the key barrier to watch, as a short-term range breakout confirmation would be provided on a sustained break above the trend line coming from 1.3840. On the lower side, the rising trend line joining recent lows below $1.35 comes around 1.3490. Short-term sentiment remains bearish while below 1.3700. Current exchange rate is 1.3579 @07:15 GMT

Support:  1.3550, 1.3490/00 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3610, 1.3700, 1.3735/50, 1.3780 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bearish, intra-day – neutral

NZDUSD

The falling trend line joining recent weekly peaks provided support on yesterday’s minor pullback to .6960 and the top side around .7060 is being challenged. Potential break above the said barrier should open .7130/50 and .7200 on first phase. Meanwhile, short-term bias suggests further gains as long as support around .6950 holds. Intra-day sentiment is bullish too, while immediate support around .7020 provides a stable bottom. Current exchange rate is .7044 @07:15 GMT

Support: .7000/20, .6950/60, .6900/15, .6850 and .6800
Resistance: .7060, .7130/50 and .7200
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bullish

AUDCAD

Trading strategy: waiting for a potential break above .9425 within the coming days

There’s a potential setup developing on a short-term basis, as the falling trend line covering recent highs since November – now around .9425 – is in focus. A break above the said line (daily close above .9425) may favor extended gains up to .9600. Current exchange rate is .9399 @07:15 GMT

AUDJPY

Trading strategy: long at 82.60 on intra-day break above 82.50 (hourly bar/candle closed above 82.50), stop at 81.90 (1% risk), objective at 83.60

Resistance around 82.40 is still under pressure and yesterday’s fast recovery from 81.25 suggests that more upside action is likely. Keep an eye on the current region as a clear break may open 86.20 – January’s top. On the South side, a retreat below yesterday’s bottom would cancel the potential breakout scenario for now, even though short-term sentiment will remain positive while above 80.00. Current exchange rate is 82.37 @07:15 GMT

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: AUDCAD, audjpy, eurusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

The downward trend line coming from 1.3840, now around 1.3700 – provided an intra-day reversal point again, limiting gains on last euro’s attempt to climb higher. Support on the 1.3600 mark has held thus far but the recovery from 1.3600 is not convincing yet. Slipping below 1.3600 would bring the fib support levels of last week’s range in focus – around 1.3550, level which held on Friday’s NFP market reaction. Not far lower than 1.3550, there’s the rising trend line barrier joining recent lows, now coming around 1.3485. Therefore, the whole range of 1.3445-1.3485 may provide a stable bottom if the sell-off continues. On a short-term basis, the charts remain in a bearish-to-neutral stance – break above 1.3700 being required to confirm a change, exiting the 13 days range. Current exchange rate is 1.3604 @07:10 GMT

Support:  1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3485/00 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3735/50, 1.3780 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – neutral, intra-day – bearish

USDCAD

Important medium term support is being challenged around 1.0250 – formed by the trend line coming from October’s 1.0205. Short-term sentiment is bearish but a potential bounce would provide a buying opportunity, targeting 1.0540/50 (monthly open) on first phase. 1.0330 is a minor resistance which capped the upside recently, so a sustained break above the said level could be a good confirmation for a swing long position. Current exchange rate is 1.0276 @07:10 GMT

Support:  1.0250, 1.0200 and 1.0100
Resistance: 1.0330, 1.0400, 1.00460 and 1.0500/15
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – neutral

NZDUSD

The kiwi dollar pulled back from recent top but support formed by the falling trend line, former resistance around .6950 may provide support, favoring some more gains towards .7050/60. Intra-day sentiment is slightly bearish but there’s enough room to the downside while an extended decline would still be treated as a corrective cycle. Current exchange rate is .6985 @07:10 GMT

Support: .6950, .6900/15, .6850 and .6800
Resistance: .7000, .7040/50 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – slightly bearish

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, nzdusd, usdcad

EURUSD

Another week passed and the euro remains into the 1.3450-1.3730 range, upside being capped around the falling trend line coming from 1.3840. However, as I wrote in my last report, the re-test of 1.3700/30 (last week’s top) is in the cards since support formed by the 61.8% fib of last week’s range at 1.3550 has held. Therefore, upside remains favored for now and the trend line from 1.3840, now around 1.3700, is in focus. Break above that would provide a short-term confirmation, opening the North territory for extended gains, thus higher highs – up to 1.3850 which is a key barrier. On a medium term basis, bias is still to the downside but current conditions are suggesting that the downtrend is pretty exhausted. Intra-day support starts at 1.3620/30, backed by 1.3600 and 1.3550. Above last week’s top – next upside objective is seen at 1.3770 of February 16, followed by 1.3800 and 1.3840/60. Buying on the break of the 1.3700 barrier could be worth it. Current exchange rate is 1.3691 @07:18 GMT

Support: 1.3620/30, 1.3600, 1.3550, 1.3500 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3735/50, 1.3780 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bullish

USDJPY

The yen has lost ground on Friday’s NFP release and carry trade is making a comeback. My plan to sell on the round 90.00 was not a fortunate one and more gains are likely, now that the dollar may stabilize above 90.00 – next objective being 91.40 – the falling trend line from 93.75, and 92.00 – potential double top formation along with February’s peak. In case of a pullback, former resistance around 89.40/50 may provide support. Current exchange rate is 90.49 @07:18 GMT

AUDJPY

Sharing the bullish stance with other yen pairs, the Aussie dollar looks set to extend its gains above last month’s top around 82.80. Resistance at 82.35 provided by the 61.8% of last down leg from 86.20 to 76.20 is currently under pressure and a sustained break above the 82.35-82.80 resistance region would encourage further upside action towards 86. Meanwhile, potential pullbacks towards 81.20 or 80.00 should trigger more buying, maintaining the short-term sentiment positive. Current exchange rate is 82.45 @07:18 GMT

NZDUSD

The falling trend line from .7075, now around .6970, has been breached – next objective being .7060/80, followed by .7150. Short-term sentiment is slightly bullish due to the recent break out above .6970 but some more gains are needed for the daily charts to turn positive, such as breaking above .7060/80. Pullbacks should be limited either by the former resistance trend line around .6970, or by .6910/30, so that the bullish structure remains intact. Current exchange rate is .7009 @07:18 GMT

Have a great week!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: audjpy, eurusd, nzdusd, usdjpy

Trading strategy: stand aside

Downside comes under renewed pressure as support around 1.3650 formed by the descending trend line coming from 1.3840 along with last week’s top side failed to hold. As the pair continues to bounce off support zone around 1.3450 but fall back from resistance region around 1.3700 too in a ping-pong manner, it’s not possible to maintain a clear course. Therefore, bullish momentum has weakened on a short-term basis since holding gains above last 3 weeks opening prices – above 1.3650/60 – would have been an important sign that recent fast recoveries from the 1.3450 zone were pointing upwards, to 1.3850, perhaps higher. Speaking of current conditions – intra-day support zone formed by the fib retracement ratios of the last up leg from 1.3435 to 1.3735 – at 1.3550, respectively 1.3585 – are providing an interim support region. If it holds, resistance comes very near – at 1.3630, but I don’t expect it to hold, as bouncing off fib ratios usually means re-testing swing’s top – 1.3700/35 in this case. On the lower side, below 1.3550 comes 1.3500 and recent bottom region around 1.3450. Today is the NFP day – data being released at 13:30 GMT, expected to print -20k. Current exchange rate is 1.3581  @07:15 GMT

Support: 1.3550, 1.3500 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3630, 1.3700, 1.3735/50, 1.3780 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

USDJPY

Trading strategy: short at 90.00, stop at 90.40(1% risk), objective at 89.40

Resistance around 89.40 is under pressure as the dollar recovered some ground against the yen but renewed selling may emerge around the 90.00 so I’m considering an opportunity to sell if it gets up there.Current exchange rate is 89.32 @07:15 GMT

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: small short at 1.5150, stop at 1.5210 (0.5% risk), objective at 1.5050

Cable is still facing solid selling on its attempts to recover and the 1.5000 mark provides intra-day support, backed by 1.4950/65 lower. The falling trend line coming from 1.5810 is limiting the upside and provides a selling point – now around 1.5070. Short-term sentiment remains highly bearish and more downside action is likely. Current exchange rate is 1.5026 @07:15 GMT

Have a great weekend!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, gbpusd, nzdusd

Trading stratetgy: looking to sell at 1.3795, stop at 1.3855(1% risk), objective at 1.3675.

Yesterday’s close above last week’s top and above the falling trend line coming from 1.3840 was an upside confirmation and support may be found now into the 1.3625/50 region. There are several important events today such as the ECB Interest Rate decision at 12:45 GMT, followed by Trichet’s speech, US Initial Jobless Claims  along with the Nonfarm Productivity at 13:30 GMT. If the euro will sustain gains above $1.36, short-term sentiment will remain in a slightly bullish stance, thus extended gains towards key resistance around 1.3850 being favored within the coming days. Intra-day sentiment is bearish for now, as the euro gives back some of yesterday’s gains but the move could be corrective – so keep an eye on the 1.3650 and 1.3600 support regions. Current exchange rate is 1.3661 @07:20 GMT

Support: 1.3625/50, 1.3600, 1.3540/60, 1.3500 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3700, 1.3735/50, 1.3780 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – bearish

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Cable recovered up to 1.5130 yesterday but continues to face selling pressure on rallies so the 1.5000 mark is back in focus, being the first important support level on its way down towards recent lows. Short-term sentiment is highly bearish and a change is quite unlikely – since a break above 1.5300 is needed to signal a change on short-term basis. BOE’s interest rate decision at 12:00 GMT is one of today’s important events to watch – interest rate being expected to remain unchanged at 0.5%. Current exchange rate is 1.5052 @07:20 GMT

Support: 1.5000, 1.4900, 1.4850 and 1.4780
Resistance: 1.5080, 1.5130 and 1.5180
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The kiwi dollar continues to lose ground after prolonged hesitation against the .7000 resistance, and it is down 120 points – making the .6760 support a reasonable target. Short-term sentiment is bearish as a sustained break above .7000 was needed to confirm a change in direction. .6845/50 is an interim support formed by a trend line coming through last week’s lows. Both daily and 4 hours charts are suggesting that more losses are likely. Current exchange rate is .6874 @07:20 GMT

Support: .6845, .6800 and .6760
Resistance: .6930, .7000 and .7050
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, gbpusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro is back into the 1.36 zone after the 4th rebound from the 1.3440 bottom, last week’s top side along with the downward trend line resistance coming from 1.3840 being under pressure. If current break above 1.3600 is sustainable – extended gains towards 1.3800 and 1.3850 are likely. Short term sentiment remains bearish as long as the 1.38 region does not come under buying pressure but recent recoveries from 1.3440 provide symptoms of short-term trend exhaustion, suggesting a reversal. Intra-day support starts at 1.3600 backed by 1.3550/60 and 1.3500. If price pulls back from current levels, keep an eye on the 1.3540/60 as that’s where the EUR may catch a bid and still not signaling a resume of downtrend, remaining in a bullish structure development phase. Current exchange rate is 1.3635 @06:30

Support: 1.3600, 1.3540/60, 1.3500 and 1.3440/50
Resistance: 1.3640/50, 1.3680/00, 1.3780 and 1.3850/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: looking to sell at 1.5175, stop at 1.5235(1% risk), objective at 1.5055

Cable holds under high pressure despite the overnight recovery above the 1.5 mark – currently facing resistance around the 50% of last down leg from 1.5320 to 1.4780 – at 1.5050. Intra-day sentiment is bullish but the pair is in a corrective phase, expecting higher floors to provide fresh selling opportunities. Such levels come around 1.5100/15 and 1.5180. Current exchange rate is 1.5019 @06:30 GMT

Support: 1.5000, 1.4900, 1.4850 and 1.4780
Resistance: 1.5050, 1.5100/15 and 1.5180
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, gbpusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Lower region of 1.3440-1.3500 is again under pressure as the euro couldn’t hold gains above the 1.36 mark, being hit by cable’s weakness. Resistance formed by the trend line joining recent weekly highs, coming around 1.3640 today, is the first important level to watch in case of recovery. A break out above the said barrier may trigger further strength – opening 1.3690/00 on first phase then 1.3850 – key short term resistance. While below 1.3640, short-term sentiment remains in a bearish configuration. Intra-day sentiment is bearish too, but above today’s open at 1.3560 it will turn positive. Current exchange rate is 1.3527 @06:55 GMT

Support: 1.3500, 1.3445/50, 1.3400 and 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3580/00, 1.3640/50, 1.3680/00, 1.3780 and 1.3850/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The GBP, or Great Bearish Pound, continued its decline and lost 420 points in yesterday’s mind blowing collapse. The 1.5000 mark which was likely to provide an interim support has been breached in a matter of seconds and provides resistance today. Above 1.5000, next levels which may trigger renewed selling are 1.5050 and 1.5100/10 – fib retracement levels of last two days’ range from 1.5320 to 1.4780. Short term sentiment remains highly bearish as long as cable holds below 1.5500, intra-day momentum being also bearish – a break above 1.5000 being required to signal a change of intra-day bias. Current exchange rate is 1.4901 @06:55 GMT

Support: 1.4900, 1.4850 and 1.4780
Resistance: 1.5000, 1.5050 and 1.5100/10
Market sentiment: long term – bearish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Still below .7000 – the kiwi dollar is facing difficulties on its attempts to extend the recovery away from the short-term channel’s lower band – as seen in the daily chart below. The .6920/30 support zone formed by last two days’ bottoms may come in focus later and it should limit losses, or the current short-term recovery initiated at .6810 will be negated. Current exchange rate is .6956 @06:55 GMT

Support: .6950, .6910/30, .6850 and .6800/20
Resistance: .6990/00, .7070/80, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, gbpusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Despite recent selling pressure ahead of $1.37 – upside seems slightly favored and last recoveries from 1.3450 are suggesting that a temporary bottom has been formed, initiating a short-term trend reversal. A proper confirmation would occur if the EUR will manage to overcome the 1.3850 resistance. Meanwhile, interim resistance around 1.3700 remains in focus, as long as 1.3550 and 1.3500 will provide support on dips. A double top has been formed last week at 1.3680, not allowing the EUR to reach a higher high – but last sell-off was one of moderate intensity, therefore the euro maintains a bid tone for now. Current exchange rate is 1.3595 @07:05 GMT

Support: 1.3570, 1.3530/50, 1.3500 and 1.3445/50
Resistance: 1.3680/00, 1.3780 and 1.3850/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – slightly bearish, intra-day – bullish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The trend line coming from .7150 – joining recent highs – now seen around .7000 has been reached in recent sessions and currently provides an important short-term resistance. Next upside barriers follow .7000 at .7070/80 and .7150 which is a more notable barrier. On an intra-day basis, the upside remains slightly favored for now but caution is advised while holding below the mentioned trend line resistance. Current exchange rate is .6976 @07:05 GMT

Support: .6950, .6900, .6850 and .6800/20
Resistance: .6990/00, .7070/80, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

GBPUSD

Trading strategy: small long at 1.5005, stop at 1.4935(0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.5105, 2nd objective at 1.5205

Cable is still in free-fall mode and the key 1.5000 mark is in focus as price gapped lower over the weekend and the minor recovery of Friday has been short-lived. Since key round numbers act like magnets – it’s likely that cable will decline a bit more, reaching 1.5000, before initiating a correction. Current exchange rate is 1.5114 @07:05 GMT

Have a great week!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, gbpusd, nzdusd

Trading strategy: stand aside

Yesterday’s recovery continued through today’s Asian session and 1.3600 is under pressure at the time of writing this article. My yesterday’s small short at 1.3560 was triggered and is still in play. Short-term sentiment remains unchanged as there’s enough room to the upside up to 1.3850/60, where a sustained break would confirm a trend change. On intra-day basis, the bias is to the upside for now but we’ll see if the EUR will manage to hold its gains. Support starts at 1.3570, backed by 1.3530, 1.3500 and 1.3450. On the North side, immediate resistance comes around 1.3620 (trend line starting from 1.4025 of February 3′rd). This week’s top at 1.3690/00 provides the next technical resistance, followed by 1.3780 higher. Current exchange rate is 1.3575 @07:00 GMT

Support: 1.3570, 1.3530, 1.3500 and 1.3445/50
Resistance: 1.3600/25, 1.3690/00, 1.3780 and 1.3850/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Former bottom around .6950 is being challenged as the kiwi dollar recovered some of its recent losses. On a short-term basis, the downward channel started in October is valid and the pair is not far from the lower channel’s band, which is seen around .6760. Momentum remains bearish while below recent top at .7080 and the hourly charts are currently bullish, as long as .6900 holds. Current exchange rate is .6937 @07:00 GMT

Support: .6900, .6850, .6800/20 and .6770/00
Resistance: .6950, .6990/00, .7050/75, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

Have a great weekend!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: small short at 1.3560, stop at 1.3610(0.5% risk), 1st objective at 1.3510, 2nd objective at 1.3440

Fresh selling emerged and limited yesterday’s rally to 1.3625 session high, downside pressure intensifying through the Asian session. Recent multi-month bottom at 1.3445 is in focus and a break down would open $1.32. As recent rallies have been short-lived, it’s unlikely that the euro will surprise by initiating an extended recovery – important selling points being seen around 1.3550, then higher at 1.3600/30 and 1.3700. Short-term sentiment remains bearish while 1.3800/50 resistance zone is intact. Current hourly bars are showing weak signs of a potential recovery so keep an eye on the 1.3550-1.3600 intra-day resistance layer if the euro gets a lift. Current exchange rate is 1.3465 @05:50 GMT

Support: 1.3445, 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3600/25 and 1.3650/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Former support around .6950 provided resistance on yesterday’s minor rally and the kiwi dollar continued to lose ground against the greenback – the .6800 mark being in focus. Both intra-day and short-term studies are bearish and the short-term momentum will remain unchanged while below .7000. If current decline continues, the .6770/00 support region may provide support, limiting losses for a while. Current exchange rate is .6880 @05:50 GMT

Support: .6850, .6800/20 and .6770/00
Resistance: .6900, .6990/00, .7050/75, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – neutral, intra-day – bearish

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, gbpusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: small short at 1.3655, stop at 1.3695(0.5% risk), objective at 1.3575

Yesterday’s rally went out of steam ahead of 1.3700 where resistance is formed by the downward trend line coming from 1.4025 (February 3rd) along with the 61.8% of the last two weeks down leg from 1.3840 to 1.3445. The short-term momentum remains bearish as long as a key breakout is not validated by a daily bar close above 1.3850. Therefore, potential gains should face selling pressure into the intra-day resistance layers around 1.3600 then higher, at 1.3650 and 1.3700. Intra-day sentiment is negative as well as the minor gains from 1.3500 up to 1.3550 at the time of this report are corrective in nature. Key events today are The German GDP data release at 7:00 GMT and Fed Bernanke’s testimony at 15:00 GMT. Current exchange rate is 1.3542 @06:40 GMT

Support: 1.3500, 1.3445 and 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3600, 1.3650/60, 1.3700 and 1.3760/70
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: small short at .7015, stop at .7045(0.5% risk), objective at .6965.

The kiwi dollar reversed into last week’s top side around .7050 and also breached below intra-day bottoms formed by two rising trend lines coming from .6815 and .6890, respectively. Although it currently recovers some ground and re-entered last week’s range, downside pressure remains high due to yesterday’s accelerated sell-off in risk pairs. In case of an extended recovery, look for resistance to limit gains around the .7000 mark. On the south side, minor support comes around .6890/00 backed by a more notable barrier formed by the recent bottom at .6800/20. Current exchange rate is .6932 @06:40 GMT

Support: .6890/00, .6850 and .6800/20
Resistance: .6990/00, .7050/75, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – neutral, intra-day – bearish

have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

Still trading in a narrow range but holding up above the 1.3600 mark, below yesterday’s top at 1.3655 – 61.8% of last down leg from 1.3790 to 1.3445. Break above the intra-day resistance at 1.3655 would favor further gains, opening the 1.3750/90 region which servers as a main objective if current recovery doesn’t run out of steam within the coming sessions. On the lower side, a pullback should face intra-day support into the 1.3550/75 zone, backed by 1.35. Hourly sentiment remains bullish for now while the short-term studies are bearish as long as 1.3850/60 does not come under pressure. Current exchange rate is 1.3627 @07:00 GMT

Support: 1.3600, 1.3550/75,  1.3500 and 1.3445
Resistance: 1.3650/60, 1.3700, 1.3760/70 and 1.3840/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bullish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The NZ dollar is unchanged Vs. the US dollar since yesterday and is consolidating recent gains into the lower half of the .7000 region. Minor resistance comes around .7045/50 – formed by the downward trendline from .7150 of February 3, through last week’s top around .7080. Above the said barrier, next notable bullish objective is set by the .7150 – monthly high. Short-term sentiment is slightly bullish but a confirmation, such as breaking above .7150, would add more fuel to the ongoing recovery. Current exchange rate is .7016 @07:00 GMT

Support: .6980/00, .6950 and .6900
Resistance: .7050/75, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – slightly bullish

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: long at 1.3565, stop at 1.3505(1% risk), 1st objective at 1.3625, 2nd objective at 1.3700

Last week’s losses against the U.S. dollar have been lower comparing to the weeks of January and extended corrections have been seen during the last 3 weeks – providing a pattern consisting of 170 points up from the weekly open price. Although gains were short-lived and lower lows have been formed, current conditions are pointing towards a potential bounce off recent lows, in a counter-trend move which could be corrective only. However, one week ago I mentioned in my report that I’d prefer to see a reversal pattern around 1.3480 which is the 61.8% of last year’s full upward move. The reversal pattern was formed Friday, as the euro managed to rebound and close higher after it reached a fresh low. If we look at the daily charts, we can see a rejection off recent lower low along with lower deviations from open to close on weekly bars on last two weeks and also 3 upside corrections of 170 points on the last 3 weeks – putting this all together, I’d say that signs of exhaustion of current down-trend become more obvious. Not considering the news about Greece or the scenarios of EU zone breaking apart etc making the rounds – price action interpreters might share the same view as mine. I don’t call for a major turn in current trend but simply focus on current charting conditions. Below recent bottom at 1.3445 my view would be negated, considering new lows to come. But for now, I think there’s some significant upside action to be seen – up to $1.42 if the interim short-term resistance at 1.3850/60 will be easily breached. Current exchange rate is 1.3622 @06:55 GMT

Support: 1.3600, 1.3525/45, 1.3500 and 1.3445
Resistance: 1.3650/60, 1.3700, 1.3760/70 and 1.3840/50
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The NZ dollar found support on the 50% of the .6805-.7080 up leg and recovered some of the lost ground, currently trading at 70.20 cents. Minor resistance comes around .7050 – formed by a downward trend line covering recent highs, as seen in the 4hrs chart below. A more notable barrier is seen around .7150 and a break above that would be an important bullish confirmation – opening .7350. Intra-day sentiment is bullish for now and potential pullbacks may find support around .6980-.7000. Current exchange rate is .7016 @06:55 GMT

Support: .6980/00, .6950 and .6900
Resistance: .7050/75, .7100 and .7150
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – neutral, intra-day – bullish

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro comes under high pressure once again against the dollar, eroding the recent bottom into the 1.3530/50 region as the Fed chose to bump up the discount lending rate by one-quarter point to 0.75 percent. Yesterday’s initial gains to 1.3650 were short-lived and intense selling emerged. The 61.8% retracement of last year’s full move from 1.2455 to 1.5145 – at 1.3485 was not a good option for buyers to come in, therefore the decline extended further and the 1.3400 level is in focus, not far away from current rates. Both short term and intra-day studies are bearish and potential gains should face resistance around 1.3550, then higher into yesterday’s top region around 1.3650. Selling rallies remains the preferred bet for now, as no notable sign of recovery is seen. Current exchange rate is 1.3468 @07:02 GMT

Support: 1.3440/50, 1.3400 and 1.3350
Resistance: 1.3500, 1.3550/60, 1.3600 and 1.3650/60
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: small short at .6990, stop at .7030(0.5% risk), objective at .6930. Stop at breakeven on +20 pips (at .6970) if reached

.6900 comes in focus now as the upward trend line support around .7000 was breached. Short-term studies turned bearish and no change is in sight while below former support .7000. My long at .7010 was closed at breakeven on the decline from .7050. If the NZ dollar recovers some ground – resistance around .6990/00 may cap the upside. Current exchange rate is .6942 @07:02 GMT

Support: .6900/30, .6850 and .6800/20
Resistance: 6990/00, .7020 and .7050/75
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

GBPUSD

Have a great weekend!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, gbpusd, nzdusd

EURUSD

Trading strategy: stand aside

The euro declined back into the $1.35 region, giving back Tuesday’s gains so the recovery scenario is on-hold for now as the recently formed intra-day bullish structure has been negated by breaking through support levels at 1.3685/00 and 1.3650/60, lower. Both levels may provide resistance on rallies, maintaining the downside pressure intact. Above the $1.37 level, uptrend would resume but a full confirmation above 1.3850/60 will be needed – on a short-term basis. My yesterday’s strategy to go long at 1.3690 – expecting a bounce off support – was a bad idea. Intra-day studies are currently bearish and will turn positive in case 1.3630 will be breached. Recent low at 1.3530 remains in focus, followed by 1.3450/80. Current exchange rate is 1.3592 @06:55 GMT

Support: 1.3530/50, 1.3500, 1.3450/80 and 1.3400
Resistance: 1.3600, 1.3630, 1.3650/60 and 1.3700
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – bearish, short term – bearish, intra-day – bearish

NZDUSD

Trading strategy: holding yesterday’s long at .7010, stop at .6980 (adjusted), objective at .7150.

Kiwi’s losses against the dollar have been smaller as carry trade instruments are performing quite well since last week. Former resistance around the .7000 level provides support for now and resistance is seen around .7075, followed by .7125/50. On a short term basis, a potential break above .7150 will be a very important bullish confirmation. Meanwhile, pressure remains high due to dollar’s strength but upside is slightly favored. My yesterday’s strategy to go long at .7010 has been triggered and it’s worth holding it for now as the test of .7000 could have been corrective only. The position shows a minor profit currently but if the U.S. dollar will strengthen further – a re-test of .6990/00 will most likely turn bad for the NZD. Current exchange rate is .7023 @06:55 GMT

Support: .6990/00, .6960/70 and .6900/30
Resistance: .7075, .7100, .7125/50 and .7200 
Market sentiment: long term – bullish, medium term – slightly bearish, short term – slightly bullish, intra-day – neutral

Have a great day!

© liviu for innerfx.com, 2010. | Permalink | Post tags: eurusd, nzdusd