Gold is trading around $4,027, rebounding after hitting $3,989—a price not seen since mid-August. We believe the euro is under downward pressure and could continue to fall in the coming days.

As shown in the chart, gold is trading below the 200-day moving average and the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), and is reaching solid support levels, as the psychological $4,000 level has previously served as a support point for a technical rebound.

If the price of gold consolidates above $4,000 in the coming days, this could be considered a buying opportunity, with targets at the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), around $4,093. Ultimately, we expect it to reach the upper band of the downtrend channel formed since early October, around $4,140.

On the other hand, if gold pulls back again to test the -1/8 Murray support level and the price holds above $3,984, this could be considered a buying opportunity, as this area represents strong support that also coincides with the lower band of the downtrend channel.

Our outlook for the coming days is to buy gold. If the price remains above the psychological level of $4,000, this will give us the opportunity to buy in anticipation of it reaching $4,140. If it breaks above the downtrend channel, it could even reach the 200-day moving average.

Our strategy for the coming days will be to buy gold. If the price remains above the psychological level of $4,000, this will give us the opportunity to buy in anticipation of it reaching $4,140; and if it breaks above the downtrend channel, it could reach the 200 EMA level, around $4,200. Finally, we believe that, before continuing its primary downtrend, gold should reach $4,300, which would also close the gap from September 23, around $4,279.

If a pullback toward $4,000 or $3,990 occurs in the coming hours, we could buy on the technical rebound with a stop-loss below the lower band of the downtrend channel or below that daily support level. S_1.

Bitcoin is trading around $81,638 within a secondary uptrend channel above $81,250—which has now become a solid support level—and below the 21- and 200-day moving averages, leading us to believe that Bitcoin could be consolidating around this area in the coming hours.

As the end of the week approaches, we believe that over the weekend, Bitcoin could consolidate above $81,250, which could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying. Additionally, we believe it could reach the 7/8 Murray level, around $84,375, in the coming days.

Bitcoin's outlook remains bullish in the short term for now, but a break above $84,500 and consolidation above this zone could change the picture, and a return toward $87,500 could be expected. Above this zone, it could reach the psychological level of $90,000.

Conversely, a drop below $81,250 and a decisive break below the secondary uptrend channel could trigger an accelerated downtrend for Bitcoin, which could reach the 5/8 Murray level—around $78,125—and even approach the 4/8 Murray level—around $75,000.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we'll look for buying opportunities in the coming hours, or we might even expect it to continue rising in the coming days.

The euro is trading around 1.1195, below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) and within a downtrend channel, showing signs of weakening momentum. The H4 chart suggests that further downside is likely in the coming days.

With the euro trading below the 0/8 Murray level and below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA), the outlook remains bearish. From a technical perspective, the euro could reach support near the -1/8 Murray level around 1.1163.

If downside momentum persists, the euro could reach the October 14 low near 1.1108, a key support level, in the coming days.

A pullback toward 1.1222–1.1230 (around the 0/8 Murray level) would present an opportunity to add short positions.

On the H4 chart, the Eagle indicator is in overbought territory, which supports the bearish case and increases the probability of further weakness in the coming days.

USD/OIL is trading around $100.47, above the 21-day moving average and within the uptrend channel that has been forming since early October. The H4 chart shows a strong bullish trend.

CL attempted twice to break above $100 and, after a technical correction toward $95, produced a strong technical rebound, suggesting that further upside is likely in the coming days, toward $103.84 and potentially the +1/8 Murray level near $106.25.

Given that crude oil has upside potential, we could look for buying opportunities above $100 and above the 8/8 Murray level, with targets at the upper band of the ascending channel around $103.84.

Conversely, a drop and hold below $100 would be a sell signal, with a target of $98.62. If bearish momentum intensifies and crude oil breaks below $97.70, we could expect a sharp decline toward the 200 EMA at about $92.83.

As long as the price of crude oil remains above $100, we could expect it to continue rising in the coming days, which would be a positive signal. Conversely, if the price falls below $100, that would indicate renewed downward pressure.

Note that the Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels, implying that the market may be nearing a technical correction. Given this, we should keep an eye on the $98 area. A break below that level could trigger a sharp downward move.

French debt crisis: Paris now pays more than Washington

October 22, 2026, marked a historic day for European markets: France's 10-year yield rose above the comparable US rate for the first time since 2013. The alarm prompted memories of the euro-area debt crisis, though experts say this episode differs materially from the events a decade ago.

Rioters in the streets and a deadlocked parliament

The root of the problem is political as much as it is fiscal. Student protests in Paris have escalated into wide-ranging unrest with elements of looting. Against this backdrop, the French government faces a serious budget crisis: the deficit has swollen to about 5.1% of GDP, while the parliament is deeply divided on key fiscal policy questions.

Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu plans to cut €54 billion from the 2027 budget, but consensus in the legislative body has not been reached. Finance Minister Roland Lescure has hinted at using Article 49.3 of the Constitution to push the budget through without a vote. "We have no choice," he said on RTL.

Markets react nervously

Markets responded immediately. France's 10-year yield pierced 5% on Wednesday, a level not seen since 2002. Selling accelerated into Thursday, and the spread between French OATs and German Bunds widened to its largest level since 2011.

Paradoxically, France is now borrowing at higher rates than Italy and Greece, countries that until recently were the euro area's headline trouble spots. The CAC 40 led European indices lower, dragging the pan-European STOXX 600 down with it.

Investors rushed into safe havens: US Treasuries rallied as equities fell and doubts grew about the wisdom of financing massive AI investments with borrowed money.

Banks stronger but not invulnerable

Europe's banks have taken a double hit. Over the past six weeks, the region's financial sector shares fell about 10%, roughly five times the decline of the broader market. The three largest French banks lost about 17% of market capitalization.

There are, however, encouraging signs. EBA data shows euro-area banks hold roughly €4.3 trillion of sovereign bonds, and capital levels have risen faster than those holdings. The share of domestic sovereign debt in banks' portfolios has fallen to about 41% from over 50% in 2013. By contrast, Italian banks held more than 100% of their capital in domestic sovereigns during the 2011–2012 crisis.

"Banks come from a better starting point, but they are not immune," Simon Ainsworth at Moody's warns. Aneeka Gupta of WisdomTree points to a structural risk: French banks issue more wholesale debt than any other issuer in the EU.

Higher sovereign yields will lift funding costs at refinancing time. Still, Christos Megalou, CEO of Piraeus Bank, believes that regulators and financial institutions have "proven tools" that can prevent a repeat of the systemic failures of the past.

What should investors do?

France's situation is a classic example of political risk morphing into financial stress. For private investors, these periods of volatility create opportunities to diversify portfolios and trade across a range of instruments, from government bonds to FX pairs and equity indices.

The assets discussed here are available for trading on the InstaForex platform. To stay informed and react quickly to market moves, consider opening an InstaForex account and downloading the mobile app to monitor and manage positions in real time.

Musk pulls back: investors disappointed by Tesla's AI cost cuts

On October 22, Tesla shares delivered a paradox: the stock fell despite third-quarter results that beat Wall Street's estimates. The market was disappointed not by what was in the report but by what was missing — the scale of AI spending investors had expected.

Numbers that surprised (and disappointed)

At first glance, Tesla's report looks solid. Revenue came in at $28.05 billion, a touch above the consensus of $27.9 billion. Adjusted EPS was $0.48 versus $0.43 expected. GAAP net income, however, fell 43% year-over-year to $787 million, partially offset by an impressive free-cash-flow print.

Here lies the quarter's central intrigue. Analysts had prepared for a cash burn of roughly $4.92 billion. Instead, Tesla generated $1.53 billion of free cash. The reason is plain: the company spent materially less on AI and robotics development than the market expected.

CapEx totaled $4.7 billion. Although more than double last year's level, that figure is well below bearish forecasts of about $7.5 billion. CFO Vaibhav Taneja attributed the savings to tighter capital management and even trimmed Tesla's 2026 capex outlook, from $25 billion down toward $20 billion.

Where's the money, Elon?

For many investors, that fiscal discipline came as an unwelcome surprise. The market had bought into a narrative of Tesla in an aggressive "arms race" for AI, pouring huge sums into the future. Tesla's current posture signals the opposite.

"Lower capex suggests less of an 'all-in' approach to the AI arms race than one would expect from Elon," Ryan Lee at Direxion said.

Other signals reinforce the caution. Jed Dorsheimer at William Blair noted Musk has effectively "dialed down expectations" for the timing of Optimus and potential robotaxi revenue.

R&D spending did rise — to $2.76 billion from $1.63 billion a year earlier — and operating income fell to $718 million, but overall spending trends are less radical than those who want an all-out tech push had hoped.

Analyst views diverge

Sell-side reaction was mixed. Some see prudence or a pullback in ambition; others remain constructive. Deutsche Bank kept a buy rating, and Canaccord Genuity raised its price target to $442. Dan Levy at Barclays argues that Tesla's AI initiatives remain intact despite the budget reset.

That said, the market voted with its feet: in premarket trading, the stock dropped roughly 4% and remained below yesterday's close into the morning. Investors want clearer evidence of how Tesla will balance near-term profitability with its futuristic projects.

Bitcoin at crossroads: why crypto stalls around $82,800

Thursday turned into a day of disappointment for Bitcoin. After a promising overnight pop toward $85,000, the flagship cryptocurrency pulled back to its familiar level near $82,800. What drove the reversal, and what should investors expect ahead of the Fed's key decision?

Only a day earlier, the market was buoyant. On Wednesday, October 21, Bitcoin posted a second straight day of gains, overcoming the psychological $84,000 mark and brushing $84,800. The rally was supported by strong corporate earnings and SpaceX headlines: the company not only reported impressive quarterly results but also confirmed the creation of a special committee to study a possible merger.

However, the celebratory tone quickly gave way to sober reckoning. As Ilya Kalchev of Nexo Dispatch aptly noted, the move "looked modest in scale" because "fresh money was limited." Indeed, in roughly six hours, the price fell by more than $2,000 to about $82,600.

The main catalyst for the correction was renewed nervousness in tech equities as investors began to question whether massive AI spending will pay off:

• Tesla fell about 3% in after-hours trading after cutting its capex outlook.
• Lam Research plunged roughly 7% on weak forward guidance.
• Even Meta's upbeat message on increased AI spending failed to prevent Nasdaq 100 futures from slipping.

The sell-off spilled into Asian and European markets: South Korea's Kospi and China's CSI 300 fell. Also, doubts grew that the AI sector can sustain previous rates of capex growth amid mounting uncertainty.

Geopolitical tensions added fuel to the fire. Oil prices climbed toward five-month highs as Middle East tensions rose, and reports of potential renewed hostilities involving the US, Israel, and Iran reminded traders of inflation risks. Higher energy prices translate into upward pressure on inflation and reduce central banks' room to ease policy, reinforcing the case for tighter financial conditions.

Bitcoin is now trapped in a narrow range it has been trading in for about a month. The Q3 autumn rally appears to have lost momentum, and all eyes are on next week's Federal Reserve decision as a potential market mover for crypto.

Technicians warn that a decisive break below $82,500 could open the door to a much deeper correction, potentially down to $70,000. For now, Bitcoin is holding its ground but continues to exhibit the elevated volatility typical of this environment.

Roller coaster for SpaceX: shares tumble after triumphant quarter

The market hates boredom — and SpaceX's stock provided a vivid reminder. On Thursday, October 22, investors rode an emotional roller coaster: just a day after celebrating blockbuster financial results, the company's shares dropped roughly 5%.

What flipped euphoria into caution? The answer lies in Elon Musk's ambitious merger talk, looming European regulatory scrutiny, and alarming near-term spending projections.

The story began with optimism. On October 20, SpaceX reported Q3 results that blew past Wall Street expectations. Revenue surged a phenomenal 161% to about $14.6 billion, and the company swung from a deep loss a year earlier (roughly $1.1 billion) to net income of about $4.4 billion.

The standout was the AI division, Super Intelligence, which posted revenue growth of 830% to $7.56 billion. It looked like nothing could spoil the celebration — shares jumped nearly 8%.

But the joy proved short-lived. At the analyst meeting, Elon Musk dropped a bombshell: he called a SpaceX-Tesla merger "a good idea." While deal terms are not settled, special committees of both companies' boards are already working on the concept.

Bloomberg reports the target is a first-half-2027 announcement to close the deal while Donald Trump remains president.

Investor reaction was mixed, and here's why:

1. Dilution risk. Analysts warn that folding in Tesla, a highly valued company, could "dilute" SpaceX's rapidly expanding earnings. Insiders told Reuters they fear Musk's public embrace of the idea will draw intense shareholder scrutiny and could drag the process out for weeks.
2. European antitrust front. The EU is preparing an accelerated probe of Project Bromo — a satellite consortium involving Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales — adding competitive and regulatory risk.
3. Shocking near-term capex. SpaceX's guidance points to Q4 capex of $35–40 billion, roughly double analysts' $20 billion expectation. Such outlays raise questions about short-term funding strain despite bright long-run revenue prospects (management projects Q1 2027 revenue in the $33–37 billion range).
4. Broader context. Markets pulled back after Tesla and Meta reports, and the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 slid, dragging SpaceX shares lower.

Despite the sell-off, bullish voices remain. BofA Global Research raised its target to $275 from $235, and Pivotal Research lifted its target to $260 from $230 — both keeping "Buy" ratings.

Musk acknowledges the challenge: any deal would require approval from at least 50% of Tesla shareholders, a threshold he calls "fairly high." But it's precisely those bold gambits that make the SpaceX story so compelling to investors.

The trading instruments mentioned in this article, including shares of major global firms, are available on the InstaForex platform. To capture opportunities in volatile markets, open an InstaForex account and download the mobile app now. Stay at the center of events with InstaForex.

The test of 156.84 occurred in the first half of the day, when the MACD indicator had just begun moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the US dollar. As a result, the pair fell by almost 30 points.

The second half of the day will be driven by US business activity data. The preliminary US PMIs for October are expected to come in at 55.5 for manufacturing, down from 55.9, and 58.0 for services, down from 58.8. The previous composite PMI reading was 58.4. These figures are very high, and if the actual data meet expectations, they will reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, push Treasury yields higher, and support the dollar.

This matters for the yen because Japan depends on energy imports paid for in US dollars, while high oil prices have already widened the trade deficit. Although today's Japanese data were relatively positive, September CPI came in at 2.1%, up from 1.9%, while the core index rose to 2.1% from 1.8%. However, the manufacturing PMI disappointed, coming in at 53.3 against a forecast of 54.5, while the services PMI increased to 52.0.

The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its October 30 meeting, with market estimates putting the probability at around 25%. However, that remains a future possibility, and the dollar will be the decisive factor today. If US data prove stronger than expected, pressure on the yen will return, along with renewed attention to levels at which Japanese authorities have previously intervened.

As for the intraday strategy, the focus will be primarily on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 156.95 (the thin green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 157.41 (the thick green line on the chart). Around 157.41, close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. A rise in the pair is possible today, but the upward potential is limited. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun rising from it.

Scenario 2: Buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.74 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The pair could then rise toward the opposing levels of 156.95 and 157.41.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: Sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 156.74 (the thin red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.18. At that level, close short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun falling from it.

Scenario 2: Sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.95 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The pair could then decline toward the opposing levels of 156.79 and 156.18.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the estimated price at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. It is generally best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially when money management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3383 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by just 15 points.

UK data came in stronger than expected, and pressure on the pound eased quickly. The Composite Business Activity Index for October rose to 53.1 from 52.0 in the previous month. More importantly, new orders increased at their fastest pace since September 2024, while employment grew for the first time in two years.

The second half of the day could prove challenging for the pound, as US economic data may allow the dollar to regain the initiative. Preliminary US PMI figures for October are expected today. The forecast for the manufacturing sector stands at 55.5, while the services sector is expected to reach 58.0. The Composite PMI stood at 58.4 in the previous reading. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the US figures are nearly eight points higher than their UK counterparts. This illustrates the significant divergence between the performance of the two economies.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index will be released next, with a forecast of 46.3, unchanged from the previous reading. Inflation expectations are also expected to remain unchanged at 4.7% and 3.5%, respectively.

These figures are important for the Federal Reserve because excessively high inflation expectations strengthen the case for further interest rate increases, thereby pushing yields and the US dollar higher.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to buy the pound today if the price reaches the entry level around 1.3383 (the thin green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.3416 (the thick green line on the chart). Near 1.3416, the plan is to close the long position and open a short position in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from that level. A rise in the pound today can only be expected if US data are weaker than anticipated. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests 1.3370 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The upward targets are 1.3383 and 1.3416.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3370 (the red line on the chart), which would trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3346, where the plan is to close the short position and immediately open a long position in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Strong selling pressure on the pound could return if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests 1.3383 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The downward targets are 1.3370 and 1.3346.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when deciding whether to enter the market. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1207 price level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 15 points.

Unexpected developments in France set the tone for the euro from the start of the day. Preliminary October PMI data showed that the eurozone economy was slowing faster than expected, and the single currency immediately fell sharply. The Composite PMI declined to 51.9 from 53.1 in September, reaching a four-month low. Meanwhile, the services sector, which accounts for most of the region's economic activity, slowed to 51.7 from 53.0. The manufacturing index fell to 52.4. France recorded the weakest results. For the ECB, this combination means that sluggish growth and high inflation are occurring simultaneously, making any policy decisions more difficult.

Preliminary US PMI data for October will be released in the second half of the day. The forecasts provide a useful comparison with the European data released this morning. The manufacturing index is expected to come in at 55.5, down from 55.9, while the services index is forecast at 58.0, compared with 58.8 previously. The Composite PMI stood at 58.4 in the previous reading. Thus, the market picture suggests that the US economy is growing steadily, while the eurozone is losing momentum under pressure from high energy prices and weak economic performance in France. The University of Michigan's data will also be released today.

If the figures are stronger than expected, the dollar will continue to rise, leaving the euro with little chance of a rebound. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD is likely to remain under pressure through the end of the week.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1205 level (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.1228. At 1.1227, the plan is to close the position and then sell the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today may be expected if US data are weaker than anticipated. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests 1.1192 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The upward targets are 1.1205 and 1.1228.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: The plan is to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1192 (the red line on the chart). The target is 1.1169, where the position will be closed and a buy position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 points from that level. Selling pressure on the pair could return at any time. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests 1.1205 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. The downward targets are 1.1192 and 1.1169.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely.
• Thin red line — the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line — the projected price level at which Take Profit can be set or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially when large position sizes are used without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a fundamentally flawed strategy for an intraday trader.

The cause was events in the Middle East, where, as a reminder, nothing good is happening. Fresh reports of talks and claims that the situation was moving toward a compromise proved false. New Iranian attacks and statements about preparation for a major war with the US and Israel pushed risk assets lower. That lifted oil, raised inflation expectations, and strengthened the dollar. In my view yesterday once again showed that targeted interventions can only buy the market a short respite, while geopolitics sets direction for the long run.

So we should not count on a sustained bullish impulse yet. Failed attempts by the euro to clear 1.1260 look more like breakdowns, and a larger downward correction is likely soon. There are plenty of reasons for further euro weakness, foremost among them France. Large rallies and unrest are again expected this weekend, as before, and authorities are preparing for still bigger events, building up military presence intended to prevent riots.

Now to the economic calendar. For the UK, we expect September retail sales data. After a 0.5% rise in August (and a matching -0.5% in July), the consensus calls for only a 0.1% drop, which could give some support to the pound. If the figure disappoints and is much weaker than forecast, sterling will most likely continue to fall versus the dollar. Preliminary October PMIs are also due: manufacturing is expected to edge down to 51.8 from 51.9, services to 51.8 from 52.1, and the composite to fall slightly. Weak data could materially increase the pound's downside into the end of the week.

Similar releases arrive for France, Germany, and the euro area as a whole. Eurozone manufacturing PMI for October is expected at 52.7 versus 52.9 last month, and services 52.6 versus just above 53 previously. Economists broadly expect little change. But recent reports show energy-driven inflation is hitting sales and production in Germany and across the euro area. So disappointing prints could send the euro into a larger decline and continue the downward correction that began yesterday.

For the US the manufacturing PMI is due, and the picture there looks solid: consensus 55 versus 55.9. Services are forecast at a strong 58, and remember the sector was still contracting in March at 49.8 before rebounding strongly. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is expected near 46.3, about last month's level. Inflation expectations could be revised higher—economists' forecast is 4.7%—and a higher print would likely strengthen dollar demand into the week's end.

As for the EUR/USD pair, I mark 1.1204 as my buying level. A drop to that area that produces a false break would be a reason to accumulate longs aiming for a return to 1.1231. A break above that band would open a move to 1.1259, with a farther target at the channel top near 1.1298, where I would sell rallies for 30–35 pips. Shorts from 1.1231 on strength are only on failed holds, the same for 1.1259. If buyers do not appear at 1.1204, wait for a new low around 1.1180–1.1183 for longs on a false break, or consider a bounce buy from 1.1155 for 25–30 pips.

As for the GBP/USD, the pound pulled back slightly from marked highs, but buyers still control the market. A false-break dip to 1.3370 would be a buy signal. A break and sustained trade above 1.3405 on strong UK data would open a path to 1.3437 and 1.3467, where I would sell on a failed hold for 15–20 pips. Shorts from 1.3405 and 1.3437 are only on failed holds. If buyers do not show at 1.3370, a larger leg down toward 1.3335 is likely; longs there are only on failed holds, and I would buy a bounce from 1.3303 for 25–30 pips.

I lean toward the view that the euro has a higher chance of deeper correction this week than the pound: France's troubles and weak industry weigh much more heavily on the euro. If UK data are strong, the pound may try to hold its ground, but disappointing prints could provoke a sharp fall. The week's tone may be set by the combination of oil and US business activity indices.

Meanwhile, experts have concluded that correlations between Bitcoin and equity indices and between Bitcoin and gold no longer hold. If Bitcoin were primarily a risk asset, a correlation with the US stock market—which rose strongly in 2026—would be logical. If it were a safe-haven asset, correlation with gold—which also rose much of 2026—would make sense. Instead, Bitcoin only began an uptrend at the end of summer, which, as we have repeatedly noted, so far appears to be just part of a broad sideways channel on the daily chart.

Analysts also point out that Bitcoin has been ascribed different roles in different periods, none of which withstood the test of time. A few years ago Bitcoin was touted as an inflation hedge, yet in 2022—when inflation spiked—it crashed from $69,000 to $16,000. It has not become a global payment system supplanting fiat or bank transfers, as 2026 clearly shows. Digital gold was meant to be a "quiet haven" for investors and traders, but how can Bitcoin be called a haven if it can lose 50% of its value within six months?

In our view, Bitcoin never had a true structural correlation with either equities or gold. Movements coincided in some periods, which led to conclusions about correlation, but in reality Bitcoin's nature differs from stocks and precious metals.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin shows signs of a nascent bull trend. This trend began, as often happens, with a pump that lacks clear, concrete reasons. The Fed has not started cutting rates, and the Clarity Act was not adopted. In the near term on the daily timeframe, Bitcoin may be in decline: the price reacted to a bearish FVG and generated two sell signals. Also note that the breakout beyond the daily sideways channel could be a deviation—yes, a deep deviation, but still a deviation. If so, Bitcoin could head toward $70,800 and even preserve the downtrend that began last year. We consider short positions most relevant for the near term. On the daily timeframe two sell signals with deviation formed, and on the 4-hour timeframe a deviation has been created. Prospects for Bitcoin remain bearish. Near targets are $80,400 and $70,800. A deviation near the lower boundary of the 4-hour channel may keep Bitcoin in a flat for some time.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe the technical picture for Ether has changed completely and now points to a new uptrend. However, bulls can rely only on the weekly chart, where Ether has targeted $4,800, the upper boundary of a five-year sideways channel. On the daily timeframe the first bearish FVG did not produce a meaningful price reaction, but Bitcoin reacted to its own FVGs, and recall Ether's price depends on Bitcoin by roughly 80–90%. Bitcoin began to correct, and Ether plunged as well. Thus, in the near term we expect declines. Ether targets are around $2,300 and lower, down to $1,850 and $1,391. On the daily timeframe, Ether received a sell signal from the nearest FVG. Given multiple sell signals on Bitcoin, Ether does not need its own signals to fall.

Explanations for the illustrations:

CHOCH—change of character, break of trend structure.

Liquidity—liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders that market makers use to build positions.

FVG—fair value gap, an area of price inefficiency. Price moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later prices tend to return and react to these areas in the direction of the main trend.

IFVG — inverted fair value gap. After a return to such an area, Price receives no reaction and impulsively breaks through, then tests from the other side.

OB — order block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to capture liquidity and form a position in the opposite direction.

What does this mean, and what could happen next? Both indices are sitting at strong support levels, as technical charts show. There are two broad negatives for US equities. First, there is a lack of new strong drivers to buy AI-related stocks—the theme that previously attracted investors. Cooling interest in AI, combined with increasing flows into safe-haven government bonds, could trigger broad profit-taking in equities and become the basis for a decline in stock indices.

The second reason is geopolitics: the Middle East crisis. Capital—and not only capital, but many European companies—has fled to the United States. That has benefited the US financial market, but demand cannot remain permanent; the current wave of positive flows will eventually give way to negative sentiment, and that negative sentiment is currently preventing a new wave of equity buying.

From a technical standpoint, a sell-off is likely to begin if these indices break important support levels. A Fed pause or continued cross-border capital inflows will not be enough to stop the move if negative drivers persist—high oil prices, the Middle East and Ukraine crises, and weaker-than-expected earnings in AI-linked names.

What to expect today

I expect the risk of falling equity demand to push US stock indices down and with them CFD contracts on those indices.

Forecast for today:

#SPX

The SP 500 futures CFD sits above support at 7,633.45. A break below that level could lead to a fall toward 7,526.38. A sell trigger could be 7,628.66, with a stop-loss at 7,678.55.

#NDX

The NASDAQ-100 futures CFD sits above support at 28,868.00. A break below that level could lead to a fall toward 28,220.50. A sell trigger could be 28,789.00, with a stop-loss at 29,271.40.

The gap reflects a long-running debate over how aggressively the central bank must act to bring consumer inflation back to 2% from nearly twice that level. In September, eurozone inflation hit 3.8%. The ECB has already raised rates twice because of the war with Iran, in June and September, and activity was more resilient than expected. Markets are watching persistent oil gains while analysts stress the lack of second-round inflation effects.

There are indeed no clear signs yet that energy-driven inflation is feeding through into broader wages and prices, so the ECB does not need to accelerate hikes now; nevertheless, it could continue a series of increases next year once fuller 2026 wage data become available. Note the September staff projections: GDP growth was seen at 0.9% this year and 1.4% in 2027, with inflation at 3.0% and 2.5% (and in the adverse scenario 3.1% and 3.2%). With oil above $110, more than two-thirds of economists judge the euro area economy to be performing worse than the September baseline.

A separate issue is sovereign debt. French yields hit 5% this week for the first time since 2002, and some investors already see a risk of a renewed eurozone debt crisis. Debate is growing over how bad things must get before the ECB activates the unused Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI). Economists generally view the trigger threshold as very high. Some propose less radical measures—verbal intervention, dovish guidance, or pausing quantitative tightening.

I expect markets will ultimately converge toward economists' expectations and scale back bets on further tightening, which would remove rate support for the euro. If oil stays above $110, the ECB will need to sound firmer, but even then I expect only one hike in December and continued pressure on the euro.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Buyers now need to reclaim 1.1230. Only that would allow targeting a test of 1.1260. From there one can reach 1.1300, but doing so without support from large players will be difficult. On the downside I expect serious buying only around 1.1200. If nobody shows up there, it would be sensible to wait for a new low near 1.1180 or to open longs from 1.1155.

Recall what happened last Saturday. Protests against the rising cost of living drew more than 500,000 people and turned into looting and arson across the country. The interior ministry reported about 3,000 stores looted and 2,700 arrests. School and student protests had been running for three weeks beforehand, and the French issue had already become a headache for the euro, with the opposition unwilling to compromise with Macron's outgoing administration ahead of the election.

Markets reacted quickly to the unrest. On October 19, during the Asian session, the euro was sharply sold, and futures on French 10-year bonds fell as yields surged. The euro weakened versus most G10 currencies—a repeat of the familiar pattern in which bad news from France hits the single currency. The mechanism is simple: violence raises political risk, political risk jeopardizes budget passage, that makes French debt more expensive, and investors sell both bonds and the euro.

Pressure then intensified. On October 20, the spread of 10-year French yields over bunds reached 153 bp, the highest since October 2, and on Thursday the premium jumped 16 bp to 175 bp—the highest level since late 2011. French 10-year yields this week hit 5% for the first time since 2002. The market is also watching ratings: Moody's may cut France's rating as soon as today.

What could the new Saturday bring? The protests are billed as "Act II" of the movement for better public services and help with prices, and anger is aimed primarily at Macron, who half a year before the end of his term has never been so unpopular. Macron said authorities will only sanction protests organized by unions. He said the general recommendation was that there should be no demonstrations in the coming days. Tough measures have already drawn criticism from the left; MP Manon Aubry called them a historic blow to the right to protest.

I see two scenarios. If Saturday passes calmly, spreads could stabilize and give the euro a brief respite, although yields at 5% and the risk of a downgrade will remain. If unrest recurs, the market will get confirmation that a fractured parliament and an upcoming election make painful budget cuts very hard to enact, and the spread could push above 175 bp. Then the question of ECB intervention will return to the agenda, although about 70% of economists in recent polls rule out any form of intervention. The likely policy response would instead be more dovish guidance on rates, which would further weaken the euro.

I believe that while tension in Paris remains and Brent holds around $110, the euro will stay under pressure and France-to-Germany spreads will remain near highs. A calm Saturday will only slightly ease tension, whereas a repeat of the riots could send EUR/USD back to recent lows.

Technical picture for EUR/USD

Buyers need to reclaim 1.1230. Only that would allow targeting a test of 1.1260. From there one can reach 1.1300, but doing so without support from major players will be difficult. On the downside I expect serious buying only around 1.1200. If nobody shows up there, it would be sensible to wait for a new low near 1.1180 or to open longs from 1.1155.

Technical picture for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3402. Only that would allow targeting 1.3440, above which further gains will be hard. The far target is the 1.3465 area. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of 1.3365. If they succeed, a break of the range would hit bulls hard and push GBP/USD to a low near 1.3335 with scope to reach 1.3300.

That is reflected in difficulty, which increased 5.92%. BlocksBridge reports, however, that the scale of the move into AI is material. The firm previously recorded a 23% drop in realized hash rate at public miners, while those companies' revenue from AI and high-performance computing rose 52% quarter-on-quarter. The freed equipment is estimated at roughly $1.5 billion. A possible explanation for the return of capacity is the secondary market: small and medium miners buy used rigs from large operators. For those with cheap power, used machines can be more economical than new ones. It remains unclear what share of sold equipment actually came from public firms and how much of it returned to the mining network.

Some market participants read the rise in capacity as an indirect positive for price. A higher hash rate means stronger security and better fundamentals for Bitcoin as a store of value. Recall that in the recent list of arguments against a new bear market, a miner build-out was an important point. Notably, the current acceleration of difficulty supports that view, but price has not yet responded. Bitcoin trades around $81,800, below the week high near $85,000.

I believe that in the coming weeks rising difficulty will first hurt weaker miners with high electricity costs and older rigs. They will need to sell mined coins more frequently, adding supply to the market when buyers are already cautious. But in the medium term, a persistently high hash rate together with rising institutional interest in mining firms is supportive for Bitcoin, and I expect the market will begin to price that in after the Fed's decision next week.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Technical picture for Bitcoin. Buyers are currently targeting a reclaim of $82,800, which would open a direct path to $84,500 and then toward $87,100; breaking $87,100 would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected at $80,900. A return of the trading instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $78,800. The most distant downside target would be around $76,900.

Technical picture for Ethereum. A clear hold above $2,417 would open a direct path to $2,508. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,600; breaking that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $2,339. A return below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,274. The most distant downside target would be around $2,231.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Today, on the final trading day of the week, EUR/USD paused its decline and attempted to hold the psychologically important 1.1200 level, but with little success. This reflects the combined impact of conflicting fundamental factors.

There is a trend toward reallocating capital away from technology stocks and the artificial intelligence (AI) sector into more conservative instruments, such as government bonds. This has pushed yields on benchmark US Treasury securities to a monthly low, breaking below the 5% mark. An additional factor supporting the US dollar was a recent statement by Federal Reserve officials indicating that there is no immediate need to raise the key interest rate further. These circumstances have kept the dollar close to the three-week low recorded on Thursday, despite a modest recovery, and continue to provide substantial support for EUR/USD.On the other hand, US inflation data released last week strengthened market expectations of an imminent tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders estimate the probability of the US central bank raising borrowing costs in December at approximately 80%.

Furthermore, concerns about inflationary pressures, exacerbated by energy price volatility amid rising oil prices, may indicate the possibility of further monetary policy tightening by the Fed. Combined with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, these factors limit the potential for further dollar weakness, as the US currency is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset.According to the latest reports, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has stated that it could adopt an offensive strategy involving incursions into neighboring countries and strikes against bases involved in US military operations in response to potential new attacks by the United States. In addition, reports have emerged that the United States and Israel are developing detailed joint plans for further strikes against Iran. These developments sustain an elevated geopolitical risk premium, discouraging investors from selling the US dollar.

At the same time, France's severe sovereign debt crisis and persistent political instability continue to weigh on the single European currency, limiting the upside potential of EUR/USD.

Today, traders seeking the best trading opportunities should focus on the upcoming release of preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the eurozone and the United States, which could trigger new market movements. However, particular attention should be paid to the outcome of next week's two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, as well as the release of key US macroeconomic data, including the preliminary third-quarter GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has a bearish bias in the short term, remaining below all key moving averages and trading near support at 1.1180. The next support level lies at 1.1150. Oscillators are in negative territory, indicating that bears have the advantage. Resistance remains near the confluence of the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 14-day exponential moving average (EMA).

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against major global currencies over the past seven days. The dollar has recorded its strongest appreciation against the euro.

On the lower timeframe (upper chart), an impulsive wave structure is still developing and may belong to wave E of the higher timeframe. If this is indeed the case, the dollar's strengthening is nearing its end, regardless of how much further it rises. The presumed wave 5 of E is either complete or close to completion. In either case, the current wave structure suggests that the downward wave sequence is nearing completion on both charts. News developments and a sharp shift in market sentiment have driven a strong appreciation of the US dollar, but few new factors remain to support further dollar strength.

Calm Market Conditions Persist

EUR/USD fell by 10 basis points on Thursday, but overall, the pair has traded within a narrow price range throughout the current week. The only significant developments this week came from the United Kingdom, where unemployment and inflation reports substantially increased the likelihood of the Bank of England tightening monetary policy at its next meeting. This factor has contributed to a considerable increase in demand for the pound recently.

The euro also has monetary policy as a supporting factor. However, buyers remain cautious because of unrest in France, which has already spread to Italy, Spain, Portugal, and other European Union countries. As a result, market participants are reluctant to trade EUR/USD and prefer to wait until next week, when the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve will hold their meetings.

The outcomes of these meetings are largely known already. However, Kevin Warsh or Christine Lagarde may provide markets with information that is not currently available, such as details of the central banks' future actions and policy plans. This information could alter market expectations for interest rates through the end of 2026 and into early 2027.

As for today, Germany and the European Union will release their services and manufacturing business activity indices. These reports are unlikely to affect market sentiment because, as noted above, market participants are already focused on next week. Furthermore, business activity indices currently have little influence on central banks' monetary policy decisions. Therefore, these reports can be considered secondary under the current circumstances.

No significant market movements are expected today. Traders will be waiting for the crisis in France to subside, the US elections, and the central bank meetings.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, the pair remains within the broader corrective A-B-C-D-E trend structure. However, this structure appears complete and may therefore be nearing its end. In this context, the current period appears favorable not only for buying the euro but also for anticipating the development of a sustained upward trend segment. According to the higher timeframe, the pair is expected to rise to at least the 1.1700–1.1800 level. The failed attempt to break above the 1.1126 level, corresponding to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level (lower chart, higher timeframe), also indicates that the market may be preparing for a move higher.

The higher timeframe shows a downward trend segment that has taken the form of an A-B-C-D-E structure. The internal wave structure of wave E has developed into a five-wave impulse pattern, but this pattern may already be complete. If this assumption is correct, a new upward trend segment will begin to develop.

The Main Principles of the Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes in the wave pattern.
2. If there is no clear understanding of current market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. There can never be absolute certainty about the direction of price movement. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave has not yet broken above the previous high. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders expect at least one more monetary policy tightening before the end of the year and another next year. This factor continues to provide strong support for the US dollar, while other factors have yet to become relevant. The bears have gained momentum, which is also helping the dollar strengthen.

There was no significant fundamental news on Thursday. One report was released in the United States—the initial jobless claims report—but it attracted little interest from traders. The intraday appreciation of the US dollar was not driven by this report. Thus, there was virtually no news affecting the dollar or the euro this week. Only later today, in a couple of hours, will the services and manufacturing business activity indices for Germany and the European Union be released, followed by the corresponding US data in the second half of the day. These reports are the only opportunity to see any meaningful market movement. EUR/USD has been trading sideways for four days, and traders are reluctant to take risks ahead of two central bank meetings. The monetary policy decisions scheduled for next week are effectively already known: both central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Nevertheless, traders want to wait for the central bank chiefs' speeches to understand what additional measures policymakers may be prepared to take to bring inflation down.

On the 4-hour chart, after forming a fifth bullish divergence, the pair reversed in favor of the euro once again and rose toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1221. Consolidation above this level would open the way for a rise toward 1.1325. Consolidation below 1.1221 would favor the US dollar and a resumption of the decline toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1088. No emerging divergences are currently visible.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 20,091 Long positions and opened 18,150 Short positions. Speculators currently hold a total of 223,000 Long positions and 360,000 Short positions. The bears remain in control, and the euro continues to be sold more often than it is bought. This is attributed to the difficult geopolitical situation in the Middle East and Kevin Warsh's intention to bring inflation down. The market still believes that inflation will be reduced to 2% by any available means.

Overall, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the longer term. Events of various kinds around the world—which have been abundant in recent years—affect investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Moreover, 2026 could set a record for the number of events that could not have been anticipated in advance. Traders therefore have little choice but to adapt to the changing reality as events unfold.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• Germany – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (07:30 UTC).
• Germany – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (07:30 UTC).
• European Union – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC).
• European Union – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (08:00 UTC).
• United States – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).
• United States – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).

On October 23, the economic calendar contains six entries, but traders have managed quite well without economic data in recent days. The impact of economic releases on market sentiment may be limited on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Buying opportunities may arise if the pair rebounds from 1.1220 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1325. Selling opportunities may arise if the hourly chart closes below 1.1220, with the 1.1081–1.1086 support level as the target. The 1.1220 level has not performed particularly well in recent days, as the signals generated around it have been false.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

The market situation has turned bullish. The latest completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the new upward wave has also broken above the previous high. Thus, bulls have temporarily taken the initiative. The FOMC's tighter monetary policy stance and the hawkish outlook conveyed by Kevin Warsh supported the dollar for a month. Perhaps the time has now come for a bullish advance.

There was no significant fundamental news on Thursday. As a result, traders shifted their attention to the chart pattern and key levels. Two rejections at 1.3404 determined the pound's direction toward the end of the current week. Bulls had been the only ones applying upward pressure since last Wednesday, but the time now appears to have come for a corrective pullback. This morning, the UK released its retail sales report, which showed that sales volumes fell by 0.4% in September compared with August. Traders had expected a decline of just 0.1% month over month. Later, the UK will also release its September business activity indices, which could strengthen the bears' position on Friday. However, the economic data released today are unlikely to shift market sentiment back to bearish. At its next meeting, the Bank of England will probably move toward tighter monetary policy, as inflation continues to accelerate and further delays are no longer an option. Therefore, in the near term, only a corrective pullback should be expected.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rose to the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3409. A rejection at this level would favor the US dollar and a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3348. Consolidation above 1.3409 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 1.3467–1.3482 resistance level. No emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial trader category became even more bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 1,074, while the number of Short positions increased by 8,279. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 44,000 versus 151,000, respectively. The bears' advantage is growing again. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestionable, but it is now open to question because the fundamental backdrop has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound remains unconvincing. In the near term, however, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, and the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market had adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed before they had properly begun. There is also no guarantee that the talks will resume in the near future.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Retail Sales (06:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (08:30 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (08:30 UTC).
• United States – Services Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).
• United States – Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (13:45 UTC).

On October 23, the economic calendar contains five entries, with the UK releases being the most noteworthy. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the first half of Friday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling opportunities arose after the pair was rejected at 1.3404 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3342. These trades can remain open today. Buying opportunities may arise if the hourly chart closes above 1.3404, with a target of 1.3454–1.3469, or if the pair rebounds from 1.3342, with a target of 1.3404.

The Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.

Dynamics of equal?weight vs. cap?weight S&P 500

The market waved a red flag against an unfavorable external backdrop. Rising French yields above 5% amid a budget crisis and Brent rallying past $114/bbl on Middle East escalation boosted demand for safe havens and sent Treasury yields tumbling. Risk?off flows intensified as concerns over the fate of tech companies mounted.

Why the selling? Investors have long been nervous about AI. Sell?offs in AI?linked names are triggered by a range of fears: reports of intensifying competition (for example, news around DeepSeek), worries that enormous investments won't pay off, or rumors that capex is slowing — a potential signal that the AI bubble is nearing a rupture point. This time, the first two fears were the catalysts.

Meta Platforms warned that the combined surge in capital needs at Alphabet and SpaceX, together with Anthropic and OpenAI seeking funds via IPOs, creates a tougher fundraising environment. Meta said it plans to raise infrastructure funding for AI to $825 billion versus the $700 billion announced in July.

The market feared this race for capital would force companies to keep pouring money into AI without regard for returns. That kicked off a severe rotation as investors rotated out of previously favored tech giants into defensive sectors such as health care, consumer staples, and utilities.

Apple and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index Dynamics

There was, however, an alternative within the S&P 500 this year. While many issuers joined the AI capex race, Apple did what it does best — sell hardware. Apple shares have rallied by 27% year?to?date and were the biggest contributor to the S&P 500's 12% advance.

Apple now looks stronger than most of the other Magnificent Seven, despite lagging in 2025. The market has even started to treat Apple as a sort of insurance against an AI bubble.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows that a break below fair value and a down?gap combination of moving averages indicate bearish strength. The 7,720 level is now key resistance. As long as the price trades below it, the bias favors selling.

Yesterday's sell-off was deep and fairly violent. On Thursday, chipmakers plunged on Wall Street, and the Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst day since June. The selling hit the tech cohort that powered the four-year US bullish run after mega-cap results raised concern that the rebound since late March had gone too far, too fast. The Nasdaq 100 is set for a second straight weekly loss, the first consecutive drop since July.

Where did the money go? Into defensives. US utilities and health-care stocks rallied, as did Treasuries, which staged their biggest rally in more than two years. The 10-year yield fell by 17 bps and slipped below 5% for the first time in a month. Spreads on USD-denominated bonds of high-grade Asian issuers widened to the largest level since July last year.

More tests lie ahead. Next week, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet report, and the Fed will announce its interest rate decision. Traders have already pared expectations for another hike this year. The market is increasingly pricing in the risk that the AI boom is topping out — the bubble may already be deflating. With US midterms approaching, stabilization could take time, and some investors are de-risking in advance.

Geopolitics remains a factor. Escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia elevated the odds of broader supply disruptions, supporting demand for safe havens. Oil keeps rising: Brent gained about 1% to $114.35/bbl after a 4% jump the prior day, and the crude benchmark is on track for a third consecutive weekly advance.

All this indicates that the market is re-pricing the AI trade, and expensive oil leaves little room for optimism. In my view, unless Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet report strong beats next week, tech stocks will remain under pressure while defensive sectors and bonds continue to attract flows. If the reports disappoint, a replay of Thursday's action is entirely plausible.

As for S&P 500 technicals, the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,679. That would signal upside and open a path to $7,698. Holding $7,718 is also important to strengthen bulls' positions. On the downside, buyers should step in near $7,656. A break below that level would likely push the index down to $7,633 and open the way to $7,601.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price is moving within a broad, primary descending channel (in blue), which reflects the overall negative trend. Overlaid on this is a steeper, secondary descending channel (in pink), which exerts direct downward pressure, driving the price toward a succession of new lows. Notably, the price is currently positioned near the lower boundaries of these channels, with minor fluctuations suggesting an attempt to establish a temporary support base around current levels.

Interaction with Pivot Points and Resistance: The price faced early downward pressure after failing to hold above key pivot levels—specifically the weekly pivot at 4151.72—as well as the daily resistance levels (Daily R1 and Daily R2). Consequently, the price broke through the daily pivot lines and is now trading below critical support levels, heading toward the first daily support level (Daily S1), located near 3981.22. Pivotal Support and Resistance Levels

Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 4063.37 (previous daily pivot level and nearby reversal zones).

Second Resistance: 4106.03 (Daily R1 resistance level).

Pivotal Resistance: 4151.72 (Weekly Pivot point and the threshold for trend direction).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 4000.00 (psychological barrier and the intraday focal point for trading).

Second Support: 3981.22 (Daily S1 support level).

Major Support: The 3950.00 zone and below, should the price decline continue.

Price Action Outlook and Trading Recommendations

Bearish Scenario (Primary):

A negative trend remains dominant and most likely, provided the price stays below the immediate resistance levels and the weekly pivot point.

Recommendation: It is advisable to sell into any corrective upward rebounds toward the 4040.00 – 4063.37 range, as long as these levels continue to cap any price advances.

Technical Targets: Aim for the psychological support level at 4000.00, with a potential extension toward the first daily support at 3981.22.

Corrective Bullish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario would be triggered if significant buying pressure emerges, successfully lifting prices from current lows and breaking through the technical resistance levels. Confirmation Condition: A one-hour candle must close clearly above the 4063.37 level.

Technical Targets: This would pave the way for a deeper bullish correction, targeting the 4106.03 level, followed by a move toward the weekly pivot at 4151.72.

Risk Management

During periods of sharp declines and high negative momentum, avoid entering trades indiscriminately. It is essential to strictly adhere to rigorous capital management rules, limiting risk to a maximum of 2% per trade. Furthermore, ensure that stop-loss orders are placed with precision to protect your portfolio against sudden reversals and the inherent volatility of the gold markets.

Price Action on the Daily Gold Chart:

The price is currently trading at 4018.44 within a descending channel on the daily timeframe. It has registered a sharp decline, reflecting persistent, intense selling pressure and remaining below key pivot levels.

Analysis of Today's Candle: The current daily candle indicates total control by the bears (sellers), who are aiming to test psychological support levels and approach the lower boundary of the descending channel, as well as the first monthly support level at 4008.04.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): This remains highly probable as long as the price stays below the monthly pivot point and nearby resistance levels. There is a potential for the price to break through the 4000.00 mark, targeting deeper support levels.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): This would require the emergence of significant buying pressure, leading to an upward corrective rebound and a successful stabilization above nearby resistance levels, potentially shifting the price back toward a sideways (ranging) pattern.

Iran-aligned Houthis said they recently struck the Saudi port of Yanbu on the Red Sea and carried out deadly hits on an oil field and an airport in the kingdom. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco evacuated its headquarters in Dhahran and asked employees to work from home after an alarm that was not immediately explained. These are no longer isolated episodes but a direct threat to the infrastructure of the region's main exporter.

The market fears fighting could spread around the Strait of Hormuz, where crude exports have recovered to nearly pre-war levels. Since the start of the year, Brent has risen by more than 85% due to the U.S.–Iran war, which is approaching its ninth month. Refined products are rising even faster — especially diesel — because Persian Gulf supplies remain constrained while Ukraine increases attacks on Russian refineries. Governments are dipping into stocks to smooth the shortfall.

The political backdrop also pushes prices higher. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the U.S. had "beat Iran" and threatened to go a bit further without specifying what he meant. Recall that The New York Times reported the U.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after next month's midterm elections. U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz said Washington is preparing for a protracted conflict that could remain stalemated for a year and that the fleet can sustain a blockade of Iranian ports for the foreseeable future, tightening economic pressure on Tehran.

That is why the price curve is rising across the board, not just in near contracts. Most traders interpret developments as a signal for higher prices for longer. That matters because the move also affects forward deliveries, meaning the market is pricing in a prolonged deficit rather than a brief spike.

Exporters with functioning logistics benefit from such dynamics, while energy importers and fuel consumers lose out. Expensive fuel is politically inconvenient for the Trump administration ahead of the elections, so it is trying to reduce prices — including via a diesel deal with Moscow.

I believe that until concrete diplomatic steps appear and given rising risks to Saudi Arabia, Brent will remain biased upward, and keeping prices above $110 looks the most likely scenario. Only a marked easing of tensions around Iran or new government releases of stocks would halt the rise.

As for the current technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $101. That would set up a move toward $105, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is the $109 area. In a decline, bears will try to seize control of $98. If that succeeds, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push Oil to a $95 low, with a prospect of extending to $92.

A broad equity sell-off across several sectors triggered the move. Stocks continued to fall on Friday as investors exited AI-related companies, and Treasuries largely held the prior day's gains as money flowed into safe assets. Crucially, gold failed to attract safe-haven demand.

The market is increasingly worried about the sustainability of AI-related investments, a key driver of U.S. economic growth. As a result, traders are cutting bets on another Federal Reserve hike. The probability of a 25-bp increase at next week's meeting fell below 10%, after standing just under one in six a day earlier. Normally, falling yields and lower rate-hike odds help gold, but that didn't happen this time.

The reason is oil. Escalating attacks on Saudi Arabia raised the risk of wider supply disruptions in the Middle East and pushed Brent above $114 a barrel, roughly a 3% weekly gain. High energy prices keep inflation stubborn, so rate pressure does not ease, and gold cannot benefit from lower yields.

I don't think active buying at current levels is likely in the near term because the metal isn't responding to the yield drop. Broad risk reduction and persistent inflation concerns outweigh the benefit of easing yields. Since the U.S.–Iran conflict flared in late February, gold has lost more than one-fifth of its value. As long as equity sell-offs persist and oil remains expensive, gold will stay under pressure, and a test of $3,900 looks quite possible. A stabilization in stocks could restore gold's safe-haven role and halt the slide, but there are no signs of that yet.

As for the technical picture, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,062. That would set up a target at $4,124, above which a breakout will be fairly difficult. The farther target is the $4,192 area. On the downside, bears will try to seize control of $4,008. If that succeeds, a range break would deal a serious blow to bulls and push gold to a $3,954 low with a prospect of extending to $3,906.

Buyers' return coincided with a traditional finance argument. J.P. Morgan Asset Management published, for the first time, a long-term Bitcoin forecast this week, assuming an average annual return of 10% over a 10–15 year horizon with volatility around 55%. Notably, even that estimate sounds moderate—it doesn't promise multiples; it merely recognizes the asset as part of long-term portfolios.

Meanwhile, the price is moving the other way. On Thursday Bitcoin traded near $81,470, down 2.4% on the day, though it remains up about 2% for the week. A day earlier, it climbed to a weekly high near $85,000. Ether fell 2.6% to roughly $2,393, and total market capitalization dropped 2.9% to $2.84 trillion. Among the largest coins, Zcash fell hardest, down 5.6%, though it is still up nearly 14% for the week. The explanation lies outside ETFs: oil above $110, weak equities, and anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 — where another rate hike remains on the table due to persistent inflation — weigh on all risk assets. The takeaway: ETF inflows create a floor but do not negate the macro impulse.

Ether ETFs finally got a breather. Funds attracted $14.9 million on Wednesday, ending a five-day outflow streak that removed about $389 million. But October remains deeply negative for them — roughly -$1.07 billion — while cumulative inflows stand at $12.8 billion. The divergence between Bitcoin and Ether in ETFs remains noticeable, and this isn't the first week with such a gap.

I believe ETF inflows will be the main argument against a deep crash, and I allow for a move to $80,900, followed by a range hold until the Fed decision. A sustained push to $85,000 is possible only if inflows persist while oil eases.

On Bitcoin

The price is near 81,800, in a range between support at 81,600 and resistance at 82,000, with outer reference points at 80,900 below and 82,800 above, so the plan is built around two mirrored directions, each with a breakout and a bounce scenario. I consider buying in two cases. If price breaks 82,000 to the upside and holds above it, I buy with a target of 82,800, provided price remains above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero; at the target, I take profit and consider a short on the pullback. If the break of 81,600 to the downside is not confirmed and the price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 82,000 and then 82,800.

I structure selling symmetrically. If price breaks 81,600 to the downside and holds below it, I open a short position with a target of 80,900, provided the moving average is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the break of 82,000 to the upside isn't confirmed and price returns below, I sell the bounce with an initial target of 81,600, then 80,900.

On Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale. The range lies between support at 2,397 and resistance at 2,410, with outer reference points at 2,371 below and 2,427 above. I buy a break of 2,410 to the upside with a hold above it and a target of 2,427, provided the price is above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If the break of 2,397 to the downside isn't confirmed and price returns above, I buy the bounce with an initial target of 2,410, then 2,427.

I sell a break of 2,397 to the downside with a hold below it and a target of 2,371, provided the moving average is above the price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If the break of 2,410 to the upside isn't confirmed and price returns below, I sell the bounce with an initial target of 2,397, then 2,371. Both indicators remain filters to cut off false moves rather than standalone reasons to enter early, and the decision is made only after the price actually confirms the specified levels.

The price test at 157.11 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving up from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 25 pips.

Yesterday the yen strengthened against the dollar despite not-bad U.S. data. The market saw initial jobless claims at 194,000 versus a forecast of 200,000. Continuing claims were 1,728,000 versus an expected 1,720,000. Normally that mix would support the dollar by increasing expectations of Federal Reserve tightening and pushing U.S. Treasury yields higher. However, a joint Japan-U.S. intervention—not officially confirmed, but one that moved the FX market similarly on July 31 and in September this year—led to yen strength.

Today's Japanese data gave the yen additional arguments. The consumer-price index for September rose to 2.1% from 1.9% previously, and the core index excluding fresh food was 2.1%, matching the forecast and accelerating from 1.8%. For the Bank of Japan, this is an important signal because inflation is clearly holding above the 2% target, which strengthens the case for further rate hikes (the current rate is 1.25%). Recall that Ueda on October 6 confirmed that rate increases would continue, and on October 15 board member Junko Koeda said the neutral rate is noticeably above 1%. The market currently prices roughly a 25% probability of a hike at the October 30 meeting, and today's figures could nudge that probability higher.

The picture on business activity is mixed. The manufacturing PMI for October was 53.3 versus a 54.5 forecast and 54.1 a month earlier — a disappointment — while the services PMI rose to 52.0 from 51.3 and the composite index remained at 52.3. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, so the Japanese economy continues to grow even as industry cools. I believe these figures, combined with rising inflation, will not allow the yen to weaken significantly, and while the risk of intervention hangs over the pair, USD/JPY will struggle to hold above recent highs. I therefore treat any attempts at further gains with caution.

For the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for Buying

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches an entry point around 157.15 (the green line on the chart), targeting 157.68 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.68, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-pip move away from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 156.84 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 157.15 and 157.68.

Scenarios for Selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after 156.84 is refreshed (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. Sellers' key target is 156.18, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip move away from that level). Sellers will return at any moment — only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 157.15 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 156.84 and 156.18.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.

Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.

Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.