The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no question of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which has been in place since January last year, but the structure now looks ambiguous. In such situations, it is better to switch to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and analyze simpler, smaller wave structures in order to make short-term forecasts, which are sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and allow for multiple scenarios. The simplest approach is to trade standard "five-three" patterns.

On the chart above, a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave can be identified. If this interpretation is correct, then the structure has been completed, and a corrective formation of at least three waves is now underway. Therefore, in the near term, price growth can be expected, but within a correction relative to the previous trend segment. The latest wave formations do not yet fully align with the higher-level structure, but this should become clearer over time. The recovery of the euro may end around the 1.1824 level.

The EUR/USD pair rose by 35 points on Friday. There was no major news during the day, and only in the evening did Iran's Foreign Ministry announce the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This topic will be discussed further in separate analyses, but for now we can assess the market reaction. Surprisingly, the reaction was fairly weak. Oil prices dropped sharply at first, as did demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar. However, the dollar lost only about 50 points and recovered within a few hours. Meanwhile, the current wave structure still suggests the formation of at least one more downward wave.

Can we expect dollar strengthening next week given the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz? I believe we can—and here is why.

In recent weeks, the euro and the pound have been rising actively. This indicates that demand for the dollar has been declining, meaning the market was already pricing in a de-escalation scenario. Such a scenario implies not only a ceasefire in the Middle East (at least temporarily) but also the reopening of Hormuz. I admit that I did not expect the strait to reopen on Friday evening or even next week. However, at the beginning of the year, few anticipated a conflict in Iran either. Moreover, the second round of negotiations between Iran and the United States has not yet taken place, and no peace agreement has been signed. Therefore, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may be temporary. It will only be possible to speak about the final resolution of the conflict once Washington and Tehran agree on all key issues.

General Conclusions

Based on this EUR/USD analysis, the instrument remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart) and, in the short term, within a corrective structure. The corrective wave formation appears largely complete and could become more extended and complex only if a stable and long-term ceasefire is established among Iran, the United States, Israel, and all other countries in the Middle East. Otherwise, a new downward wave sequence—or at least a corrective wave—may begin from current levels.

On a smaller timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely typical, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-level wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such situations do occur. It is generally better to focus on clear and understandable structures rather than strictly adhering to every wave count. The trend may reverse in the near future.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty about market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Two main reasons for the pound's growth should be noted. The first is technical. Last week, a bullish imbalance (No. 18) was formed, and the price precisely tested it on Monday night and reacted to it. In other words, a bullish signal appeared within a bullish trend. The second reason is geopolitical. The market had sufficient time and opportunity to price in the most pessimistic scenario in the Middle East. After the failed negotiations in Islamabad, nothing changed. Oil did not reach new record highs, no new missiles were launched at Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. The situation did not improve, but it did not worsen either. It is also worth noting that recent bearish patterns failed to trigger a bearish move, as did the sweep of bearish liquidity (red lines on the chart).

As mentioned in previous analyses, an important and relatively rare "Three Drives Pattern" was formed, which marked the beginning of the pound's upward movement. Thus, traders received a bullish signal at the very start of the move, while the trend has remained bullish throughout.

At present, the ceasefire remains fragile, and the parties involved have not yet decided whether to continue negotiations or resume hostilities. Talks may resume this week, which is a positive factor. The Strait of Hormuz is under a dual blockade, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may join it, which is a negative factor. However, as of Friday, the situation has not materially changed. The Middle East situation may escalate, but it could also continue moving toward de-escalation.

The "Three Drives Pattern," marked on the chart with a triangle, enabled bulls to take control, which is already a positive sign. Yesterday, a second reaction to imbalance No. 16 was observed, but second reactions are usually weaker than the first. The pair also swept liquidity from the February 26 high, and together these factors could trigger a corrective pullback. On the downside, the only notable bullish pattern is imbalance No. 18, which has already produced a price reaction. A new imbalance (No. 19) has also formed, which may generate a buy signal today or on Monday. Any bullish pause may be short-lived—especially if news emerges about renewed negotiations and progress between the Iranian and U.S. delegations.

There was no economic news flow on Friday, and the day before traders ignored new reports, this time from the UK. This suggests that economic data is currently not a key driver for the market. Technical signals are present, and new Iran–U.S. negotiations are expected. This is sufficient for traders to make decisions.

In the United States, the overall background suggests that, in the long term, the dollar is more likely to weaken. Even the conflict between Iran and the U.S. does little to change this. The outlook for the dollar remains challenging: the U.S. labor market is weakening, the economy is approaching recession, the Federal Reserve—unlike the ECB and the Bank of England—is not expected to tighten monetary policy in 2026, and several large protests against Donald Trump have taken place across the country. From an economic standpoint, there are currently no clear reasons to expect sustained dollar growth.

A bearish trend would require a strong and stable positive backdrop for the dollar, which is difficult to expect under Donald Trump. Geopolitics supported the dollar for two months, but this support is now fading. While it cannot be ruled out that the dollar may strengthen again due to geopolitical factors, there are currently no strong reasons to expect this.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On April 20, the economic calendar contains no events. The news background is not expected to influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The "Three Drives Pattern" signaled potential growth, followed by a bullish imbalance and a buy signal. The price has swept liquidity from bullish swings on March 10 and 23, as well as from the February 26 swing, but bears have not taken control—another positive sign for the pound.

Under current conditions, despite geopolitical uncertainty, the upward movement is likely to continue. The euro is also likely to keep rising. The target for the pound is the 2026 high. A reaction to imbalance No. 16 may trigger a corrective pullback, while reactions to imbalances No. 18 and No. 19 may provide new buying signals for traders.

Crude oil is trading around $87.40 with a bearish bias, below the 21-day SMA and the 200-day EMA, and within a downtrend channel that has been forming since April 7

Crude oil has been consolidating above $87.50 per barrel over the past few days. On several occasions, oil has rebounded above this zone. If consolidation occurs below $87, we could expect a continuation of the downward movement.

If crude oil continues to fall and consolidates below the 7/8 Murray level, we could sell with targets at $80, and ultimately at the 6/8 Murray level around $75 per barrel.

Conversely, if crude consolidates above $89.30—where the 200 EMA is located—and decisively breaks the downtrend channel formed since April 7, this could be seen as a signal to buy above the psychological $90 level, with a target at 8/8 Murray around $100. WTI is even expected to reach +1/8 Murray around $112.

The Eagle indicator has reached oversold levels, and a technical rebound is likely to occur around this area. Above $87.50, we could look for opportunities to open long positions.

The euro is trading around 1.1797, above the 21-day SMA, consolidating between 1.1770 and 1.18, indicating a possible continuation of the uptrend, though technically, signs of exhaustion are evident.

If the euro remains above 1.1790 in the coming hours, we can expect EUR/USD to continue rising and potentially reach the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840. The instrument could even reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around 1.1868.

According to the H4 chart, the Eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, so a technical correction is expected in the coming days, and we could see a drop toward the 4/8 Murray level at 1.1718.

If the euro reaches the resistance levels of 1.1820 or 1.1840, both levels could be considered a zone to open short positions, as technically, EUR/USD has approached overbought levels. So, we could expect a technical correction below this zone.

A break and consolidation below the uptrend channel would effectively signal the end of the uptrend, thus, we could expect the euro to reach the 2/8 Murray level at 1.1474 in the short term. EUR/USD could even sink to the levels of 1.13 or 1.12.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell the euro below 1.1840. The Eagle indicator supports our bearish strategy.

Gold is trading around $4,802 within a bearish trend channel on the H1 chart that has been forming since April 14. The chart shows that gold is consolidating above the 200-period EMA at $4,760, suggesting that gold could see a recovery in the coming days, potentially reaching the R_3 resistance level at $4,898.

Looking at the H1 chart, gold is above the 21SMA and is testing the strong resistance of the downtrend channel. Technically, XAU/USD appears to be forming a bullish pennant pattern on the H4 chart. If the price consolidates above $4,800, we could expect it to reach $4,869 and $4,900 in the coming hours.

Conversely, if gold fails to break above $4,800, we could expect a correction toward the 200 EMA at $4,760, and we could anticipate a technical bounce in this area.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, hence gold is likely to continue rising in the coming hours. Therefore, we will use this technical analysis to buy above the 21 SMA at $4,792 or above $4,760, as both levels offer a positive outlook for gold in the coming hours.

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair finishes the week in a state of uncertainty, consolidating below the key psychological level 0.5900. After an impressive rally to monthly highs near 0.5925, the New Zealand dollar faced seller pressure and pulled back. Traders froze, weighing two powerful but opposing forces: persistent geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz that support the US dollar as a haven and renewed hopes for peace talks between the US and Iran that exert opposite pressure on the greenback.

Fundamental background: between escalation and diplomacy

Despite encouraging signals from diplomatic circles, reality on the ground remains tense. The US-imposed maritime blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect, creating a direct threat to global energy supplies. Moreover, Iran's armed forces command threatened to halt regional trade entirely if the blockade does not lift.

This uncertainty supports demand for the US dollar as a safe haven. The dollar index, USDX, tries to recover from six-week lows, creating a headwind for the risk-sensitive kiwi.

Alongside escalation, diplomatic efforts continue. President Donald Trump expressed optimism, saying the conflict is close to conclusion, and the Wall Street Journal reported a principle agreement to hold a new round of talks this coming weekend.

This optimism prevents the US dollar from fully realizing its bullish potential and serves as the key factor limiting NZD/USD's decline. Markets hope that renewed dialogue will lead to de-escalation and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which would reduce global inflationary risks.

Monetary background: hawkish RBNZ versus paused Fed

The New Zealand dollar receives meaningful support from hawkish rhetoric at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman signaled that the central bank stands ready to act decisively with rate hikes if core inflation shows signs of pickup, especially given fuel price pressure linked to Middle East tensions.

Markets reacted immediately: current pricing includes nearly three RBNZ rate hikes by year-end, totaling about 75 basis points. That makes the New Zealand dollar one of the more attractive yields among G10 currencies.

However, economists warn that such aggressive pricing may be excessive, expecting only a single 25-basis-point hike in Q4 2026. They point to a negative output gap in New Zealand and growth below trend, which raises the bar for aggressive tightening.

Unlike the RBNZ, the Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see stance. The FedWatch tool from CME Group assigns a 99% probability of no change at the April meeting, and markets price only about a 30% chance of one cut by year-end.

Weak March PPI data published this week eased concerns about persistent inflationary pressure, allowing the Fed to remain patient. Nevertheless, New York Fed President John Williams warned that the war in the Middle East already lifts inflation, and he projects inflation in the 2.75%–3.0% range this year.

China factor: unexpected tailwind

The most important driver for NZD/USD this week came from China — New Zealand's largest trading partner. China's economy grew 5.0% year on year in Q1 2026, beating forecasts and accelerating from 4.5% in the prior quarter.

That delivered a powerful bullish signal for the kiwi, because New Zealand's economy ties closely to Chinese demand for commodities, especially dairy and timber. Sustained Chinese growth, even amid external challenges, supports New Zealand's export demand and, accordingly, the kiwi exchange rate.

Short technical analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD stands at a critical threshold. The pair successfully broke the resistance zone 0.5838 (EMA200 on the H4 chart)–0.5850 (EMA200, EMA144 on the D1 chart, and EMA200 on the H1 chart), confirming a short-term trend shift to bullish.

Indicators, rather, support a bullish narrative than aggressively signal further upside: the 14-day RSI holds around 56, and OsMA has been in positive territory since April 8. Stochastic gives a reversal signal from overbought, but it remains in that zone for now.

Any decline will likely find support at 0.5850, and only a breach of 0.5838–0.5830 (EMA144 on the H4 chart) will put the bullish structure in doubt.

Key weekend events

Weekend, Possible second round of US-Iran talks, the main geopolitical trigger—will determine risk-appetite dynamics

April 22: Expiration of the two-week truce. Possible extension or escalation

Conclusion

NZD/USD stands at the epicenter of a clash between two powerful forces. On one side, hawkish RBNZ rhetoric (markets price in 75 basis points of tightening by year-end) and strong Chinese data (GDP growth 5.0%) support the kiwi. On the other side, persistent risks in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty around US-Iran talks push investors into the dollar as a safe asset.

The key zone 0.5850–0.5930 will become the arena for a decisive battle in the coming days. Holding above 0.5885 will preserve bulls' chances to test 0.5965 and 0.6000. Technical indicators remain supportive: RSI at 56 and OsMA in positive territory point to sustained buyer pressure.

At the same time, economists warn that aggressive RBNZ pricing looks vulnerable against weak New Zealand growth. Any disappointment in hawkish expectations or a breakthrough in talks could trigger a correction. Investors should closely watch diplomatic developments over the weekend — their outcome will determine whether the kiwi gets the long-awaited impulse to break 0.6000 or faces a deep correction to 0.5800 and below.

See also our today's review GBP/NZD: reversal under pressure from two currencies.

For a fuller picture, compare South Korea with another major Asian market — Japan. The entire month's trading activity on Japan's crypto market, measured in yen, amounts to only $2–3 billion. By contrast, South Korea averages $26 billion in weekly trading. This colossal gap underscores the dynamism and scale of the South Korean crypto market and its significant influence on global digital asset trends.

This situation places South Korea in a unique position. Altcoin dominance on that market may indicate investor sophistication and depth, as well as strong local platforms and an active pipeline of new projects. That combination of factors creates a favorable environment for further growth and innovation in cryptocurrencies, where altcoins play a leading role and even outshine more established tokens.

Recently the market has frequently talked about an approaching altcoin season, which only fuels local crypto traders' and investors' interest in this class of digital assets.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin's technical picture, buyers now target a return to $76 500, which opens a direct road to $78 400, and from there the market would be within reach of $80 100. The most distant target stands at the high near $83 100, and a breach of that level would signal attempts to restore a bull market. In case of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at $75 000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $73 100. The furthest downside target would be the $71 400 area.

Regarding Ethereum's technical picture, a clear hold above $2 382 opens a direct road to $2 475. The most distant target stands at the high near $2 585, and a breach of that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. In case of an Ether decline, I expect buyers at $2 308. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2 244. The furthest downside target would be the $2 162 area.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

A crossover, or a price test of moving averages, typically either halts the move or sparks fresh market momentum.

Such pair dynamics look illogical, given the green tone of yesterday's report. The UK economy, contrary to gloomy forecasts, demonstrated unexpected resilience and momentum, significantly beating analysts' estimates.

Thus, according to the published data, Britain's GDP in February increased 0.5% month-on-month, with a forecast of 0.1%. That represents a yearly record — the highest reading of the indicator since February last year. In quarterly terms GDP also rose 0.5% (forecast 0.2%)—the strongest reading since May 2025. Here an upward dynamic has formed: the indicator has expanded for a third consecutive month.

It is worth noting that not only headline figures supported the British currency but also structural elements of the report. Unlike previous months, when growth often came from a single sector, the February report showed unanimity across many key sectors. In particular, the services sector grew 0.5%. That matters because services account for about 80% of the UK economy. Wholesale and retail trade, hospitality, and information technology served as the main growth drivers. For example, retail sales rose immediately by 1.4%, which signals a recovery in consumer demand.

Also, the industrial production sector showed positive dynamics, increasing 0.5%. The construction sector moved into the green as well. After a short lull, it showed an impressive—one might say jumpy—increase of 1.0%.

In other words, the report proved genuinely strong, and therefore the current weakening of the British currency appears, at first glance, illogical. Nevertheless, this dynamic results from a number of factors.

First, the market treated the published data as having lost relevance. February figures reflect the economic situation before the recent escalation in the Middle East. Although the initial data recorded in February proved far sturdier than expected, the consequences of the energy crisis, which already erupted in spring, will inevitably show up. Because of high oil prices, GDP growth may slow and inflation may rise again. Against that background stagflation risks have increased, and those risks did not appear in the February report.

Second, the GBP/USD pair fell amid strong macroeconomic data published yesterday in the United States. In particular, the weekly initial jobless claims fell to 207 thousand, while most analysts had forecast a larger rise—to 213 000–215 000. That constitutes a significant drop compared with the revised prior-week reading of 218 000. A weekly fall of 11 thousand became the largest single-week decline since February this year.

It is also important to note the stability of the four-week moving average. Market participants regard this indicator as more representative because it smooths weekly volatility—which is especially relevant given Easter holidays and spring breaks. Thus, the four-week average stood at 209 750 claims. That level lies well below the alarm threshold of 230 000, which indicates an absence of systemic layoff problems. This result suggests that American firms do not lean toward mass layoffs: despite slowing US growth, many employers keep staff on payrolls, which, incidentally, supports consumer confidence.

Another US macro release published yesterday also favored the greenback. The Philly Fed manufacturing activity index jumped to 26.7 (forecast 10.3). The indicator has risen for a fourth consecutive month, and in April it reached its highest value since January last year. Key subindices also showed meaningful increases. For example, the new orders index surged to 33.0 from the prior 8.6, which indicates that regional companies literally have their order books full for the future. The future capital expenditures subindex rose to 35.2, signaling that firms plan to expand and buy equipment. The average workweek index also grew to 7.7, which indicates high capacity utilization. Finally, the paid prices index showed a jump to 59.3. That serves as a signal that inflation in the manufacturing sector has accelerated again—primarily due to logistics and raw material costs.

Although the Philly Fed covers only one region, it shows a high correlation with the ISM manufacturing index, and therefore the release delivered strong support to the US currency.

Thus, the downward dynamic of GBP/USD has a fully justified character. Traders ignored the outdated UK GDP report and concentrated on US data, which sided with the greenback.

But opening any trading positions on the pair right now is categorically not recommended. The reason is that geopolitics will soon return to center stage with all the ensuing consequences.

According to Donald Trump, a new meeting of US and Iranian representatives may take place as soon as this coming weekend. If the second round of negotiations indeed occurs tomorrow or the day after, the market will price in its results on Monday. If the sides reach a deal or agree to keep negotiating, the safe-haven dollar will come under pressure, and interest in risk assets will rise again. In that case the GBP/USD pair will likely retest the boundaries of the 36th figure. But if negotiations fail, the dollar will again take the lead, and GBP/USD will fall into the 34th figure, targeting Kumo support on D1 near 1.3400.

The intrigue remains, and therefore any trading decisions on the pair now look equally risky.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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According to Eurostat, last month's reading was revised up to 2.6 percent from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent. Core inflation stood at 2.3 percent.

In March this year, inflation exceeded the European Central Bank's 2 percent target for the first time, as hostilities in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher. The forecast revision followed similar moves this week by France, Italy, and Spain.

Although markets are pricing in two rate hikes in 2026, traders are currently confident that there will be no change at the next meeting on April 29–30. Rumor has it that ECB officials lean toward keeping rates unchanged this month, postponing a decision on whether the consequences of the war with Iran require a policy response. Policymakers believe that tighter financial conditions help anchor inflation expectations, and that a rate increase would not necessarily alter market prices materially.

Officials also expect that data arriving ahead of the ECB meeting on April 29–30 will not yet provide clear answers on how strongly almost two months of fighting in the Middle East have affected euro area growth, supply chains and the outlook showing inflation trending toward the ECB's 2 percent target. And, since peace talks continue, there remains a chance that damage can be contained.

Many policymakers at the IMF forum noted the ECB's delayed reaction in 2022, which provoked a record inflation spike, as well as the 2011 experience, when two rate increases amid the euro area sovereign debt crisis had to be quickly reversed.

As I noted above, the war-driven surge in energy prices has already pushed regional inflation to 2.6 percent in March, but the persistence of that rise depends largely on the duration of the conflict. At the same time governments and central banks have sharply lowered their growth forecasts.

President Christine Lagarde said this week that the ECB must be absolutely flexible on interest rates, but she stressed that the institution has no bias toward tightening. Nevertheless, investors see rate hikes as inevitable, pricing in two-quarter-point increases this year.

In March, the ECB projected average inflation of 2.6 percent for 2026.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about taking the 1.1790 level. Only that will allow a target test of 1.1825. From there one can move up to 1.1854 but achieving that without support from major players will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the high at 1.1880. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1760. If no one appears there, it would be sensible to wait for a refresh of the low at 1.1725 or to open longs from 1.1680.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3535. Only that will allow a target of 1.3555, above which a breakthrough will be rather difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3585 area. In the event of a drop, bears will attempt to seize control of 1.3500. If they succeed, a break of the range will deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward the low of 1.3480 with a prospect of moving to 1.3550.

Markets shoot first and ask questions later. For now, de-escalation in the Middle East has become a more important factor for markets than stagflation risks, which would be felt especially sharply in Europe and Asia because of those regions' dependence on energy imports.

Commodity indices and US CPI dynamics

The US faces a different problem. Even before strikes on Iran, prices across most commodity assets were rising, partly driven by Trump's tariffs. In March, oil and gas joined the rally, which will almost certainly push up US consumer prices. Second-round effects will lift core inflation as well, especially given the administration's anti-immigration stance that shrinks the labor force and gives workers more bargaining power to demand higher pay.

In one of his recent remarks, Jerome Powell said the Fed will not cut rates if the disinflationary trend breaks — and it's likely to break. Thus, market forecasts that expect no policy changes through year-end look logical.

Market expectations for the federal funds rate

If geopolitical tensions are resolved, investor focus will return to interest rates. The futures market currently prices in two ECB rate hikes in 2026 with about a 30% chance of a third. Bloomberg's sources say the Governing Council will do nothing in April.

In reality, the ECB should avoid worsening a potential economic downturn. Since the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, oil is up about 60%, and gas has surged about 90%. Bloomberg Economics has cut its euro area Q1 growth forecast from 0.5% to zero. A deposit rate hike in these conditions would be a political mistake by Christine Lagarde and her colleagues.

Borrowing costs may remain unchanged, and current expectations of hikes could work against the euro. Indeed, if the Fed-ECB rate differential does not narrow, it makes sense to sell the main currency pair now.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is in short-term consolidation after a prolonged rally. It makes sense to place pending buy orders on a break above the upper band of the 1.1765–1.1825 trading range, and to sell if support at 1.1765 is successfully breached. In the first case, the risk of a rally to 1.1950 rises; in the second, the odds of a pullback to 1.1715 increase.

The test of the 159.38 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 159.08.

Going forward, only statements from Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller may significantly change the balance of power in the market. Traders, including investors and analysts, have recently been closely analyzing every word for hints about the future direction of monetary policy—especially in the context of a possible end to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. The most important statements are likely to come from Christopher Waller, who is often associated with a more hawkish stance. His comments may signal the need for more decisive action to contain inflation, if deemed necessary. This could significantly influence market expectations regarding further monetary tightening, leading to a stronger dollar and growth in the USD/JPY pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.17 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.50 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.50, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today can be expected if the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 158.96 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.17 and 159.50 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a breakout below the 158.96 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.68, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return if policymakers adopt a dovish tone.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.17 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 158.96 and 158.68 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3512 level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. However, the pair did not proceed to a significant decline.

In the absence of major statistical data, the U.S. session gains particular importance, with focus shifting to speeches by Federal Reserve representatives. Statements from Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller serve as key indicators of sentiment and potential policy actions. Investors and analysts typically follow their remarks closely, looking for hints about future monetary policy. Mary Daly, known for her dovish stance, may emphasize the importance of patience and a gradual approach to policy adjustments—especially given elevated inflation. Thomas Barkin, in contrast, may offer a more pragmatic view, focusing on real economic indicators and a balanced assessment of risks. Most likely, the currency market will react only to unusual or unexpected comments from policymakers.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3539 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3560 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3560, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move). Pound growth today can be expected within the context of a bullish market.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3525 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3539 and 1.3560 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a breakout of the 1.3525 level (red line on the chart), which may lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3496, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return if Fed representatives take a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3539 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3525 and 1.3496 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1788 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Going forward, traders' attention will be focused on speeches by Federal Reserve representatives, including Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller. Their statements may determine the future direction of the market. On the other hand, any new information or hints from Donald Trump related to geopolitics could trigger sharp fluctuations in the currency market—especially in pairs involving the U.S. dollar. Therefore, market participants will need to carefully analyze both Fed commentary and any potential remarks by Trump regarding Iran.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1801 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1821. At 1.1821, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. Growth in the euro today can only be expected if Fed representatives take a very dovish stance.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1790 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1801 and 1.1821 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1790 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1770, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return if Fed representatives take a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1801 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1790 and 1.1770 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

About 38% of experts surveyed by Reuters named April as the month for the next increase in the overnight rate from 0.75% to 1%, while 35% preferred July. However, the Bank of Japan usually signals upcoming monetary tightening ahead of the next Board meeting.

This time, Kazuo Ueda did not provide such signals. The central bank governor spoke about two-sided risks stemming from the Middle East conflict. On one hand, the chances of rising inflation are increasing; on the other, the risk of slower economic growth is also rising. Making a decision in such conditions becomes extremely difficult. The best option is to wait and observe.

Dynamics of the Chances for a BoJ Overnight Rate Hike in April

After this rather "hawkish" speech by Kazuo Ueda, the futures market reduced the probability of monetary tightening in April from 55% to 19%, which put pressure on the yen.

Yen supporters were also unsettled by remarks from Satsuki Katayama. The finance minister stated that the Japanese government is ready to take decisive measures against forex speculators. These actions would be carried out in coordination with the United States. Allegedly, currency interventions were agreed upon with Scott Bessent following a personal meeting.

Dynamics of USD/JPY and Currency Interventions by Japan

Coordinated intervention in the currency market, similar to the 1985 Plaza Accord, would be far more effective than the unilateral actions previously taken by Tokyo. However, it is worth noting that those past interventions were also successful. The upward trend in USD/JPY was reversed in both 2022 and 2024, when Japan chose favorable moments—specifically when the U.S. dollar was weakening against major global currencies.

Something similar may be happening now. The de-escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East is depriving the dollar of its main advantage—strong demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, other global currencies are returning to their pre-conflict levels. The yen, however, is not yet able to do so, as it is itself considered a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the BoJ has made it clear that it will not tighten monetary policy in the near future.

From a technical perspective, the daily USD/JPY chart shows two opposing pin bars with long wicks and an ineffectively played inside bar—clear signs of consolidation. It makes sense to consider buying above 159.5, and selling in case of a break below the fair value level at 158.7.

In the absence of economic data during the U.S. session, traders' attention will be focused on speeches by Federal Reserve representatives: Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller. Their comments could become a key factor in setting the tone for further market movement—especially amid a possible ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. However, as throughout the current week, the most likely trading catalyst will remain statements by Donald Trump regarding Middle East policy.

These two factors—the rhetoric of Fed officials and the foreign policy statements of the former U.S. president—form a complex but highly significant combination influencing trader sentiment. On one hand, remarks from Waller, Barkin, and Daly may provide insight into the central bank's current views on the economy and future monetary policy direction, which is critical for the dollar. On the other hand, any new information or hints from Trump related to geopolitical triggers could provoke sharp movements in the currency market.

In case of strong economic data, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If there is no market reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1800 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1825 and 1.1850;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.1775 may lead to a decline toward 1.1750 and 1.1735;

For GBP/USD:

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3545 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3570 and 1.3595;
• Selling on a breakout below 1.3510 may lead to a decline toward 1.3480 and 1.3450;

For USD/JPY:

• Buying on a breakout above 159.15 may lead to dollar growth toward 159.40 and 159.84;
• Selling on a breakout below 158.85 may lead to a sell-off toward 158.57 and 158.25;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1804 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1780 and a return to this level;

For GBP/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3548 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3513 and a return to this level;

For AUD/USD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.7191 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.7165 and a return to this level;

For USD/CAD:

• I will look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3688 and a return below this level;
• I will look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3665 and a return to this level.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has become quite complex but is starting to clarify. A two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a new bullish wave. The picture now resembles the beginning of a new bullish trend. Over the weekend, geopolitics turned negative again as negotiations in Islamabad failed; however, the ceasefire is still in effect, and talks may resume this week. That said, there is no confidence in the success of the next round.

There were few significant global events on Thursday, and traders largely ignored the Eurozone inflation report, as they have many other reports in recent weeks. Market attention remains fully focused on geopolitics. The recent slowdown in trading activity does not mean that the Middle East is no longer of interest to the market. At present, everyone is waiting for the next round of negotiations between Iran and the US. It could have taken place yesterday, but there are still no confirmed dates or deadlines for the second meeting in Pakistan. Some sources suggest that talks may occur as early as next week. However, the two-week ceasefire is set to expire next Wednesday. Neither Washington nor Tehran wants to return to hostilities, so the temporary truce will most likely be extended for another two weeks. In my view, the probability of a successful outcome from the negotiations is quite low, but at the same time, if both sides saw no point in meeting, such meetings would not take place at all. It is worth noting that we likely receive no more than 20% of the available information, so it is difficult to speak confidently about the prospects of the negotiations. Two weeks ago, the world was preparing for a new escalation, but instead, Trump announced a ceasefire.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1778, allowing traders to expect further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 38.2% – 1.1849. A consolidation below 1.1778 would favor the US dollar and lead to some decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. Bulls have managed to break out of the descending trend channel, opening up solid prospects. There are currently no emerging divergences.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 778 long positions and 8,826 short positions. Over the past seven weeks, the bulls' overall advantage has disappeared. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 201,000, while short positions total 208,000. Two months ago, the bulls' advantage among non-commercial traders was more than double.

Overall, in the long term, large players continue to show strong interest in the euro. However, global developments—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict shows no sign of ending. Therefore, in the near term, the euro and dollar exchange rates will depend not on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. The dollar may once again benefit from this situation.

Economic Calendar for the US and Eurozone:

On April 17, the economic calendar contains no notable entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will again be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling positions were possible after a rebound from the 1.1824 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1745. These trades can still be held today. I recommend considering buy positions after a rebound from the 1.1745 level with a target of 1.1824.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure has shifted to a "bullish" one. The latest upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had given bears almost complete control of the market for two months, but then the geopolitical background began to improve, giving bulls more confidence. Now everything will depend on the success of new negotiations between Iran and the United States.

The news background on Thursday had no impact on trading, although GDP and industrial production reports in the UK gave bulls an opportunity to continue their advance. Both reports came in stronger than market expectations. However, traders had already turned toward a correction, as the factor of a ceasefire between Iran and the US had been priced in for about a week and a half, and now new data is needed: either confirmation of the ceasefire for at least another two weeks, or a breakdown in negotiations and renewed escalation. Therefore, the current decline should not be viewed as a resumption of a "bearish" trend. Most likely, a corrective pullback has begun, preceded by a graphical sell signal. No major economic news is expected this week, so the market will focus solely on negotiations in Pakistan through the end of the week. Of course, it is impossible to predict how they will end, but it is reasonable to assume that several more rounds will be needed to reach a consensus. The issue of Iran's nuclear energy program remains key, and it is still unclear how the parties can reach common ground on it.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, the bulls have finally gone on the offensive. After a "bearish" divergence formed on the CCI indicator, the pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3540. However, a "bullish" divergence is now emerging on the same indicator, which may trigger a reversal back in favor of the pound. In that case, the growth process could resume toward the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3664.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions fell by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively: 47,000 vs. 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have actively increased selling and reduced buying, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical backdrop.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction began while the bullish trend was still intact, and then the conflict in the Middle East started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only driver behind the strengthening of the US dollar.

Economic Calendar for the US and UK:

On April 17, the economic calendar contains no significant entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling positions were considered today after a rebound from the 1.3596 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3437. The first target has been reached. Buying positions may be considered today after a rebound from the 1.3513–1.3539 level, with targets at 1.3596 and 1.3611–1.3620.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012 to 1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to face a lack of sustained demand and remains below the $4800 level, staying under pressure ahead of the European trading session opening on Friday. Despite intensified diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving tensions in the Middle East, friction between the US and Iran persists amid the ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports. This factor continues to support the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and puts pressure on commodity prices.

At the same time, a temporary 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has strengthened expectations of a possible diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that Iran is on the verge of reaching an agreement. According to The Wall Street Journal, the parties have reached a preliminary understanding to hold a new round of negotiations, although specific timing and location have not yet been determined.

Nevertheless, ongoing market optimism toward risk assets, along with reduced expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve, is limiting the US dollar's recovery potential after it recently hit a new March low.

Against this backdrop, gold managed to rebound toward the psychological $4800 level. Previously released US Producer Price Index (PPI) data eased investor concerns about inflationary pressure driven by rising energy prices amid the conflict. Additionally, expectations of further de-escalation in the Middle East are keeping oil prices under pressure, which in turn reduces the likelihood of a more aggressive Fed policy stance.

Currently, market participants estimate about a 30% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut by the end of the year. This limits interest in further dollar strengthening and supports gold. Therefore, it may be prudent to wait for more pronounced selling pressure before considering a continuation of the corrective movement from the April high.

No significant US macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for Friday that could impact market dynamics, so further movement of the dollar will largely depend on comments from FOMC officials. Investors' focus will remain on a potential new round of negotiations between the US and Iran, which could take place as early as the weekend.

It is expected that news flow around these events will continue to drive heightened volatility in financial markets and create conditions for new momentum in gold price movements. Despite current fluctuations, the XAU/USD pair has been showing a moderate upward trend for the third consecutive week.

From a technical perspective, the failed attempt to break above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart calls for caution among bullish traders. However, the 50-period SMA is providing support to the downside, so it would be reasonable to wait for a clearer break below this support zone at $4765 before positioning for further losses.

Amid rising hopes for de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict and improving investor sentiment, global markets are hitting new highs, and the structure of demand for commodities and financial strategies is shifting.

Silver continues to move into deficit territory, and the World Silver Institute's forecasts point to a widening gap in 2026. Hedge funds are increasingly revising their trading systems: from crypto?based strategies toward oil, gold, and indices.

At the same time, the tech sector is in the spotlight — US juries have issued verdicts against Meta and Alphabet, reinforcing a trend toward greater platform accountability for product design and harms to users, particularly children.

Global markets hit records: optimism on US-Iran eases the "war premium"

On Thursday, April 16, 2026, global stock markets extended their rally and hit all-time highs. Traders took on more risk as expectations grew for a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran, corporate earnings beat forecasts, and Chinese macro data came in better than analysts had expected.

Japan's Nikkei 225 closed at 59,518, up 1,384 points and, for the first time ever, settled above 59,000. Reuters reports that the MSCI global index covering 47 countries rose for a tenth consecutive session to new record levels.

The positive tone extended to US markets: CNBC reported that the S&P 500 closed above 7,000 for the first time since January, at 7,003.82. The New York Times notes the index is about 10% above the low marked on March 30, the nadir of the conflict period.

The rally was primarily catalyzed by the prospect of a diplomatic turnaround in the US-Iran conflict that flared in late February. President Donald Trump said peace talks could resume "within the next two days," while mediators worked to organize a second round of direct talks in Islamabad ahead of the ceasefire expiry on April 21, Business Mirror reports.

On the commodity side, optimism received additional support: Brent traded just below $95/bbl on Thursday and WTI around $91 — well below the $120 peak hit in the early weeks of the war, NDTV Profit notes. Falling energy prices helped the market partly remove the so-called "war premium" priced into equities.

Key takeaways

The market is shifting to a calmer risk assessment: index gains to record highs and lower oil suggest investors are pricing in a chance of de-escalation. For traders, this means greater interest in strategies that benefit from continued "risk-on" moves and in trading pullbacks after strong impulses. Trading instruments linked to global indices and the oil sector are available on InstaForex. To react faster to market moves and news, open an account on the platform and install the InstaForex mobile app.

Silver back in deficit: World Silver Survey 2026 warns of a widening gap in 2026

The global silver market closed 2025 with a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, and the World Silver Survey 2026 (World Silver Institute with Metals Focus) warns the gap may widen in 2026.

According to the report, the 2025 silver deficit was 40.3 million troy ounces — less than the record 148.9 million ounces in 2024, but still enough to draw down above-ground stocks and create liquidity tightness. The shortage's impact was especially visible in October, when the deficit pushed lease rates for the metal sharply higher.

The 2026 outlook is more strained: the supply gap is expected to grow by about 15% to 46.3 million troy ounces, making 2026 the sixth consecutive year of structural deficit.

Total silver demand in 2025 fell 2% to 1.13 billion troy ounces. The main driver was a 3% drop in industrial demand to 657.4 million ounces — the first decline since the pandemic. Weakness was concentrated in the photovoltaic (solar) sector: silver use in solar fell 6% to 186.6 million ounces in 2025, as manufacturers economize on material and substitute copper in part.

The solar outlook is expected to deteriorate further: PV Magazine projects 2026 solar silver demand at about 151 million ounces — a 19% decline year-on-year.

Investments in AI infrastructure, EV production and grid development partially offset losses from the photovoltaic sector, but not enough to stop the overall industrial demand decline.

Key takeaways

The report concludes that silver's structural deficit (40.3 million oz in 2025) may widen to 46.3 million oz in 2026. The demand drop is driven mainly by the solar sector's weakness (-6% in 2025, potentially -19% in 2026). Industrial demand softness remains a risk despite pockets of support from AI infrastructure, EVs and grids.

Crypto hedge funds reallocate: trading systems move into oil, gold, and indices

Infrastructure that hedge funds built for around?the?clock crypto trading is being redeployed to classic markets.

As returns on key crypto strategies fall, managers increasingly port their automated systems to commodities — crude oil, gold — and stock indices. The shift is driven by geopolitical shocks in the Middle East and growth in tokenized real-asset markets.

The pivot to commodities reflects that basis?driven approaches tied to Bitcoin have lost efficiency. The once?profitable arbitrage between spot ETFs and CME futures delivered annual returns of 15–25% through much of 2024 and early 2025, but by early 2026 that figure had fallen to roughly 5% — barely above the ~4.5% US risk?free rate.

CoinShares data show hedge funds' exposure to Bitcoin ETFs fell by one-third in BTC terms as funds closed positions. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures dropped to a 14-month low, falling below $8 billion in March after peaking above $21 billion.

Because the quant trading mechanics remain intact, managers are migrating methods to other asset classes. Alpha EV, founded by Taylor Godwin, applied relative?value strategies across commodities: one trade — short silver / long copper — exploited funding rate divergences and produced weekly returns of 20%+.

Market estimates suggest commodity-focused strategies can yield about 1–3% monthly, whereas traditional crypto strategies currently deliver roughly 0.5%.

Key takeaways

Hedge funds' reprioritization shows automated strategies are not disappearing but changing venues. Reduced effectiveness of Bitcoin-based trading and declining CME open interest create opportunities for those ready to trade commodities and tokenized assets via modern infrastructure.

US juries deliver back?to?back verdicts against Meta and Alphabet: platforms held responsible for addiction

Over two days, juries in New Mexico and California returned consecutive verdicts against Meta and Alphabet, rulings that could materially change legal accountability for tech platforms. Both cases centered on harms linked to deliberately "sticky" product designs.

On March 24, in Santa Fe, New Mexico, a jury found Meta liable under state consumer protection laws. Meta was ordered to pay $375 million in civil penalties, with damages capped at $5,000 per violation. The verdict was based on allegations that Meta misled users about the safety of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp and created conditions that facilitated the sexual exploitation of children on its platforms.

New Mexico Attorney General Raul Torres called the verdict "a significant victory for every child and every family harmed by Meta's choice to put profit above children's safety."

A separate phase of proceedings will consider whether Meta must be held accountable for creating a public hazard and whether platforms can be required to change their operations; that phase is set to begin on May 4.

The next day, a Los Angeles jury found Meta and Google liable in a high-profile case over social?media addiction, awarding $6 million in compensatory and punitive damages to a 20?year?old plaintiff who claims she became addicted to Instagram and YouTube as a child. Jurors found platform design flaws and failures to warn users about algorithmic addictiveness; roughly 70% of the damages were apportioned to Meta.

The case is part of a wider wave of similar suits — about 2,000 related claims are pending in California courts.

Key takeaways

Both verdicts accelerate a trend toward tougher accountability for tech companies over the harms of their products, especially mechanisms that foster addiction. For markets, this raises legal and regulatory uncertainty around major platforms and may spur further regulatory initiatives in the US and Europe. Traders can watch price reactions to legal news and reassess risk forecasts, litigation costs and potential product changes.

If you trade on news flow, note that the instruments discussed in the article are available on InstaForex. Open an InstaForex trading account and install the mobile app for greater convenience.

The record run seen in global equity markets slowed, stalling across Asian venues. Investors, looking to minimize risk ahead of the coming weekend, began to trim positions. The main reason for the cautious stance was uncertainty over progress on extending the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The uncertainty around those geopolitical negotiations is materially influencing market sentiment, pushing participants to lock in profits and step back from potential risks.

Against that backdrop, Asian indices showed mixed dynamics. Traders are watching any diplomatic news that could affect regional stability and, therefore, global markets. The lack of clear signals on the ceasefire's next steps is prompting more conservative portfolio management.

While yesterday was marked by optimism, caution dominates today. The decision by investors to reduce positions suggests that short-term upside may be limited until a clearer picture on geopolitics emerges. Next week should bring more decisive trends once the results or next steps of the talks are known.

The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest barometer of global equities, fell by 0.1% after a 10-day rally that pushed it to a record high on Thursday. Although Wall Street indices also closed at record levels, momentum in Asia softened as traders focused on progress in talks intended to preserve the US–Iran ceasefire, which expires next week.

Brent crude dipped by 1.3% to $98.10 per barrel after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about securing a lasting ceasefire with Iran. Gold gained modestly to around $4,800 an ounce, while Treasuries and the US dollar were largely unchanged, reflecting a cautious end to the week.

As noted above, investors are awaiting progress in talks that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease oil shipments, and relieve economic pressure after the sharp rise in oil prices since the conflict began in late February.

According to AT Global Markets, markets are entering the final session of the week at key technical and psychological levels and remain short on confidence as traders await clearer signals from the Middle East.

Yesterday, Trump again asserted, without providing evidence, that Iran had agreed to concessions it had long resisted, including abandoning nuclear-weapons ambitions and handing over nuclear material. According to the president, the deal would also include opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran has not confirmed such concessions.

Trump also announced a 10?day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. In his Thursday comments, he did not mention Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in a video address that he had agreed to a truce.

As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,049. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $7,066. Equally a priority for bulls is to hold control above $7,087, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near $7,033. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,013 and could open the way to $6,993.

The crowd that missed the March bounce is returning to buying US stock indices. Evidence for that is the widest gap in demand since November 2020 between stocks preferred by retail investors and the shares being bought by mutual funds.

Dynamics of gap between crowd preferences and mutual funds

That means the market is reverting to the buy-the-dip strategy popular in 2025. Risks of a deeper pullback remain, though. Bloomberg warns that investors are focusing only on diplomacy and ignoring the fact that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The largest supply disruptions in history will keep oil elevated and increase stagflation risks for the US economy — a headwind for the S&P 500.

Still, investors plan to worry about that tomorrow. Today, they are encouraged by Trump's comments about a near-term US–Iran deal and the opportunity to buy stocks that got heavily marked down in March. Tech names are especially attractive: price-to-earnings ratios in the sector have fallen about 18% due to the correction, while earnings forecasts remain positive. In such conditions, buying looks highly compelling.

Nasdaq Composite performance

Unsurprisingly, against this backdrop, the Nasdaq Composite is posting its best winning streak since 2017, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones — a pattern typical of an AI-led technology boom.

All of this evokes animal spirits and FOMO, but it also smells like excess optimism, especially given Trump's claim that Iran agreed to all US demands, including full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and cessation of nuclear activity.

However, Tehran has not confirmed the US president's statements and is not rushing to reopen the strait. Markets are buying the rumor of peace — but will they sell the fact if a deal is signed? Time will tell.

Technically, the S&P 500 formed a doji bar with a long lower shadow on the daily chart. A break above its high at 7,052 would increase the odds of a continued rally and justify adding to existing long positions. Conversely, a drop below the low at 7,007 would raise the chance of a pullback, opening the door for short-term selling toward the support levels of 6,955 and 6,880.

If we looking at EMA(50) & EMA(200) which still in a Golden Cross intersection, then Solana appears likely to continue its bullish bias today toward its nearest resistance level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 94.60

2. Resistance. 1 : 92.09

3. Pivot : 87.96

4. Support. 1 : 85.45

5. Support. 2 : 81.32

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price breaks out above 92.09, there is a possibility that solana will rise toward 94.60.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 94.60 is also broken, there is a chance the 98.73 level will be tested.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The upside bias is restrained if the price weakens and falls below 81.32.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 87.06

EMA(200): 85.16

RSI(14) : 48.14

Economic News Release Agenda:

From the United States throughout today there was no release of any economic data apart from the IMF Meeting.

With the Golden Cross condition on both EMAs, it is confirmed that Litecoin has the potential today to strengthen and test its nearest resistance level.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 57.70

2. Resistance. 1 : 56.88

3. Pivot : 55.73

4. Support. 1 : 54.91

5. Support. 2 : 53.76

Tactical Scenario

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price holds at 55.73, there is a likelihood that Litecoin will move up toward 56.88.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 56.88 is broken, Litecoin could test 57.70.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision

The upside bias is restrained if the price weakens and breaks down below 53.76.

Technical Summary

EMA(50) : 55.67

EMA(200): 54.90

RSI(14) : 45.83

Economic News Release Agenda:

From the United States throughout today there was no release of any economic data apart from the IMF Meeting.

Meanwhile, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that Bitcoin's price depends not on central bank policy per se but on the overall money supply. It is worth recalling that the last major uptrend formed after the pandemic, when central banks printed tens and hundreds of billions of dollars, euros and other currencies, and markets began to expect monetary easing. Hayes's view is logical: the more money in the economy, the cheaper it becomes and the more capital flows into various assets. But are central banks going to start the printing presses again any time soon?

Under what circumstances would central banks begin to print money? In our view, the war in Iran will not change the monetary policy approach of the major regulators. The global economy may slow, but unlikely enough to prompt new large?scale issuance. Expanding the money supply would further stoke inflation, while central banks are already expecting strong consumer price growth in the coming months — March CPI readings have already confirmed that hypothesis. Thus, the talk is more likely about tightening monetary policy — higher rates and a reduced money supply to curb price growth. The ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed have already identified their primary task for 2026: prevent inflation from getting out of control. Therefore, money supply growth is unlikely in the near term. Bitcoin remains a risky investment asset, currently in a bearish trend and having lost about 50% of its value in just six months. Investors remember that every Bitcoin bull run has ended with a 70–80% crash.

Trading recommendations for BTC/USD

Bitcoin continues to form a full bearish trend with corrective rallies against it. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three?year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like a final stop. From current POI areas, the only notable zone is the nearest bearish FVG on the daily TF around $79,300–$81,200. On the 4?hour TF, Bitcoin has swept liquidity, but that alone is insufficient to open shorts — bearish patterns are needed. Although sometimes a liquidity sweep is enough to trigger a serious move.

Trading recommendations for ETH/USD

On the daily TF, a downtrend continues to form, with corrective moves against it. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. After its formation, Ethereum fell about 55% (roughly $2,500). In the near term, Ethereum may continue a weak upward correction, but every correction ends sooner or later. On the 4?hour TF, Ethereum has worked through recent FVGs fairly well, but price action remains weak and corrective. Bitcoin and Ethereum have swept liquidity from the March 17 highs. A decline could begin in the near future.

Comments on the charts

CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.

OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.