One notable aspect of the past week is that the eight-week outflow streak has finally been broken, but the recovery has only covered a small portion of the losses. The turnaround mentioned by many in recent weeks is now reflected in the ETF flow numbers. Over the five trading days ending last Friday, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs collectively attracted $281.8 million, marking the first positive week since early May. Bitcoin ETFs collected approximately $197.4 million in net inflows, ending the eight-week series during which about $8.26 billion was withdrawn from the funds, the longest outflow streak since these products launched in January 2024. The last positive week before this was the one ending on May 8, with an inflow of about $622.7 million.

However, the intra-week dynamics show that the turnaround has been uneven and fragile. The week began with an inflow of $265.69 million on Monday, followed by a more modest addition of $21.44 million on Tuesday. On Wednesday and Thursday, investors withdrew a total of $180.16 million before funds recovered on Friday with an inflow of $90.44 million. Notably, the influx on Monday alone exceeded the total result for the entire week, highlighting the limited scale of the turnaround. Additionally, the Friday inflow was concentrated in just two products: BlackRock's flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust attracted $86.83 million, while VanEck's HODL added $3.61 million, whereas other Bitcoin funds showed no capital movement.

Ethereum ETFs also ended a record-long negative streak. Approximately $84.4 million was inflowed to ETFs, following a loss of about $1.20 billion over the previous eight weeks, equaling a previous record for the category set between late February and mid-April 2025.

However, it should be understood that, despite a return to positive flows, the recovery has only reclaimed a small portion of prior losses: Bitcoin ETFs regained about 2.4% of the capital lost over the eight negative weeks, while Ethereum funds recovered around 7%. Both asset classes remain in the red for the year.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $62,900 with a target for growth to the level of $63,500. At around $63,500, I intend to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Bitcoin off the lower boundary at $62,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the downside, targeting levels $62,900 and $63,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching the entry point around $62,500 with a target for a drop to the level of $61,900. At around $61,900, I intend to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Bitcoin off the upper boundary at $62,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the downside, targeting levels $62,500 and $61,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $1,785 with a target for growth to the level of $1,807. At around $1,807, I intend to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Ethereum off the lower boundary at $1,772 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the downside, targeting levels $1,785 and $1,807.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching an entry point around $1,772 with a target for a drop to the level of $1,747. At around $1,747, I intend to exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Ethereum off the upper boundary at $1,785 if there is no market reaction to its breakout to the downside, targeting levels $1,772 and $1,747.

The price test at 161.69 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 40 pips.

Today, the escalation regarding Iran has increased demand for safe-haven assets and pushed the dollar up against the Japanese yen. Over the weekend, American forces, at Donald Trump's order, carried out a series of strikes, hitting around 140 targets. The formal reason cited by Washington is to weaken Tehran's ability to threaten navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; however, the parties still disagree on whether the strait is open, adding to market uncertainty. The Japanese yen, in this situation, finds itself caught between two fires. As a traditional safe haven, it could benefit from a spike in tensions, but the simultaneous strengthening of the dollar and the threat of rising oil prices work against Japan, which is almost entirely dependent on energy imports. If the dollar's rise drives USD/JPY up too quickly, the issue of currency intervention may resurface, as the Bank of Japan has repeatedly intervened to prevent excessive weakening of the national currency during such stressful episodes.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 162.15 (green line on the chart), with a growth target of 162.39 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 162.39, I intend to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's preferable to return to buying the pair during corrections and serious pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 161.97 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 162.15 and 162.39.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 161.97 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 161.73, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers will return to the market at any moment; we just need any hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 162.15 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 161.97 and 161.73.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.3418 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair did not rise, resulting in a loss realization.

Today, the new escalation of conflict in the Middle East has weakened risk appetite and strengthened the dollar, which has naturally weakened the pound. The U.S. Central Command reported the fourth strike against Iran in a week, aimed at undermining Tehran's ability to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens of targets were hit, including air defense systems, coastal radar stations, and drone complexes. The contradictory statements from the parties regarding the status of the strait have added to market anxiety. The vulnerability of this oil route has once again caused traders to return to the dollar.

The absence of significant macroeconomic data for the UK today further exacerbates the decline of the British pound. In the absence of encouraging economic data that could support the national currency, traders tend to respond to negative external factors. The tension in the Middle East will undoubtedly spur a flight to quality, which usually means a weakening of currencies considered riskier, such as the pound.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at an entry point around 1.3387 (green line on the chart), with a growth target to 1.3416 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3416, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). We can expect growth in the pound today only if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3371 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3387 and 1.3416.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3371 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3346, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Bad news will put pressure back on the pound. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3387 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3371 and 1.3346.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of 1.1422 came at a time when the MACD indicator had moved significantly lower from the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test at 1.1422 led to the implementation of scenario #2 for buying the euro, resulting in a 15-pip rise in the pair.

The escalation around the Strait of Hormuz has once again restored the dollar's status as a safe haven and pressured the euro. Over the past weekend, American forces conducted one of the most intense bombardments since the June ceasefire agreement, hitting about 140 targets on Saturday and adding a new round of strikes on Iranian air defense and missile systems on Sunday. In such a situation, the single currency loses its support. The rise in geopolitical tensions forces traders to shift from riskier assets to the dollar, and the EUR/USD pair declines as heightened risk is priced in.

Today, there are no Eurozone data scheduled in the first half of the day, so do not be surprised if pressure on the euro persists. The market is likely to rely on overall market sentiment and oil price dynamics. Given the absence of significant macroeconomic events, traders will closely monitor any statements from European Central Bank representatives.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more heavily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy the euro at around 1.1409 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1438. At 1.1438, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. We can anticipate an increase in the euro only after good data are released. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1391 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. We can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1409 and 1.1438.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1391 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1365, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today in case of poor data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1409 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. We can expect a decline to the opposite levels at 1.1391 and 1.1365.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Today, the sell-off was particularly painful for Asia. The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell by about 1.6%, and South Korea's KOSPI plunged by roughly 7%. The technology sector was again in focus: SK Hynix shares collapsed by about 12%. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 1.1%, and European stocks look set to open roughly 1% lower.

Markets are entering a crucial week, coinciding with a renewed escalation in the Middle East, and investors must digest three major storylines simultaneously: the start of earnings season, US inflation data, and the first testimony by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to Congress. Nomura International Wealth Management expects July to be a volatile month for equities, driven primarily by inflation and rate-hike concerns. The resumption of hostilities with Iran only compounds the risk.

It was the renewed fighting that triggered today's sell-off. On Sunday, US forces conducted another strike on Iran aimed at degrading the country's ability to attack commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US Central Command reported. This was the fourth round of strikes, following Iranian drone and rocket attacks on US allies, including Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar. In retaliation, the IRGC burned several large missile and fuel depots at Prince Hassan air base in Jordan. The scale of the reciprocal strikes is noticeably larger than in previous exchanges.

The key market uncertainty remains the status of the strait, and the parties are giving contrary accounts. Iran says the waterway is closed, while US military and maritime authorities insist shipping continues on a southern route.

Commodity and FX markets reacted sharply and decisively. Brent jumped by 4% to exceed $79/bbl amid conflicting reports on the strait's status and fresh speculation about supply disruptions. The dollar, the traditional safe haven in the Middle East crises, strengthened across the G10 as higher oil pushed up rate-hike bets for the Fed to contain inflation. That dynamic hit non-yielding precious metals: gold fell by 1.4% to roughly $4,060/oz, and silver plunged by nearly 3% to about $58.10.

Treasuries fell across the curve, with the rate-sensitive two-year yield rising to its highest level since February 2025.

Technically, the daily chart suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,544. Doing so would confirm upside and open the path to $7,574. Maintaining control above $7,600 would further cement buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend $7,518. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,494 and open the way to $7,474.

Fresh headlines out of Iran stirred oil, sovereign yields, and FX, and Washington–Tehran relations are becoming more strained — every signal from the region is being parsed by traders. Yet, the S&P 500's response to renewed Middle East escalation was surprisingly muted. Equity investors chose to look forward at corporate earnings rather than backward at geopolitics.

Correlations and sector divergence

According to Barclays, correlations across major asset classes currently sit near the 93rd percentile of their historical range. Oil, bonds, and currencies are moving more in sync than usual. By contrast, correlations within the equity market itself have fallen to their lowest level in more than a decade. Formally, the S&P 500 can still move with other asset classes, but its constituents increasingly diverge. Investors are ruthlessly separating AI winners from losers.

Barclays draws a parallel with the dot-com era, when a major technology shift created unusually wide gaps between favored and unloved names. History does not repeat exactly, but it rhymes.

A clear sign of capital rotation was SK Hynix's IPO. Depositary receipts for the South Korean memory-chip maker jumped by 13% above the offering price. The company raised $26.5bn, the largest IPO by a non-US issuer in history. Data-center demand continues to drive semiconductor pricing.

Volatility in the sector is off the charts. Since June 1, the SOX has recorded 11 moves of 5%+ in either direction. By comparison, there were only 10 such swings in the whole of 2025. The market is clearly overheated around a single theme, and any news can spark violent moves.

That said, broad complacency is not evident. Some corners of the market behave like a casino, but the wider investor base remains sober and sceptical, behaviour that is not typical ahead of a sustained collapse.

Wall Street has already priced in exceptional earnings growth into the S&P 500. The coming earnings season will show whether those expectations are justified. Companies will have to prove that the billions invested in AI deliver real returns.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500's rally toward record highs continues. Long positions established at 7,492 make sense to scale up on a successful breach of the local June high at 7,580.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1396, rebounding after touching the lower band of the uptrend channel around 1.1389. If, in the coming hours, the euro consolidates above this area and remains within the uptrend channel, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect it to close the gap it left around 1.1416.

Technically, the euro is in overbought territory; however, a pullback toward the 21SMA level could be expected in the coming days before the selling trend resumes.

Conversely, if the euro consolidates above 1.1425, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect it to continue rising until it reaches the 6/8 Murray level, around 1.1474; ultimately, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA level, around 1.1485.

The euro always adheres to its technical parameters, so our outlook could be positive in the coming hours. If EUR/USD consolidates above 1.1380, any pullback could be viewed as an opportunity to open long positions.

The first target in our bullish trading plan could be 1.1421, the level of closing the gap after reaching the 6/8 Murray level, and finally, the upper band of the bullish channel, around 1.15.

Conversely, if the price consolidates below 1.1380, the euro could continue to fall until it reaches the strong 5/8 Murray support level, around 1.1352. In this area, we might consider buying if the price rebounds and consolidates above this level.

Gold is trading around $4,058.84 within the uptrend channel formed since June 26 and is rebounding after reaching the lower band of the uptrend channel. Therefore, we believe that if XAU/USD consolidates above the 2/8 Murray level in the coming hours, a technical rebound could occur.

Looking at the H4 chart, we can see that gold left a gap between Friday's close and the opening of trading this week. Therefore, we believe that in the coming days, gold could return to the $4,100 and $4,124 levels and close the gap.

On the H4 chart, we can also see that gold has tested the lower band of the uptrend channel; if it consolidates within this channel and above the 2/8 Murray level in the coming hours, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect it to return toward $4,099.

A break above the 21 SMA could signal a positive outlook for gold, and we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,223 in the coming days—and it might even reach the 3/8 Murray level around $4,218.

Conversely, a drop below $4,050 could lead to a pullback toward the July 8 low or even the psychological level of $4,000.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,800 and continues its fall after breaking out of the uptrend channel that had formed since late June. BTC could struggle to continue rising in the coming days if the price remains below $64,000.

Bitcoin could continue its slide in the coming hours if the price consolidates below $62,500. In that case, we could expect it to drop to the -1/8 Murray level, around $59,375, and eventually reach the -2/8 Murray level, around $56,250.

Given that Bitcoin has upside potential but is showing signs of overbought conditions and waning bullish momentum, we believe that if it consolidates above the 0/8 Murray level ($62,500) in the coming hours, it will be considered a buying opportunity with targets at $63,800; ultimately, we expect it to reach the 1/8 Murray level, around $65,625.

The Eagle indicator shows a negative signal, hence we must proceed with caution, as the price has alleviated the overbought condition to some extent. Therefore, Bitcoin could rebound above $62,500 in the coming days, which would be considered an opportunity to open long positions.

Last Sunday, the U.S. launched new missile strikes against Iran, continuing a series of mutual attacks and counterattacks between Washington and Tehran. The U.S. Central Command reported that the strikes were aimed at undermining Iran's capability to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, targeting Iranian air defense systems, coastal radars, and missile and drone complexes. This is already the fourth strike in about a week, while the parties make contradictory statements regarding whether the strait is open for navigation. It is worth mentioning that a significant portion of global oil supplies passes through this route, so any threat to its operation instantly increases the risk premium and pushes capital into safe-haven assets.

In this environment, the dollar has gained support as a classic safe haven, weakening the positions of both the euro and the pound. The escalation of the conflict undermines risk appetite, and the threat of a spike in oil prices negatively affects European economies that rely on energy imports. As a result, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are under pressure as investors move to the most reliable instruments.

There is no significant data scheduled for the Eurozone in the first half of the day, so do not be surprised if the pressure on the euro continues. The lack of significant macroeconomic data means traders will have to rely on secondary indicators and overall market sentiment. This, in turn, may lead to increased volatility, as smaller trading volumes will have a stronger influence on price movements.

Particular attention should be paid to news developments. Statements from representatives of the European Central Bank, as well as geopolitical events, could significantly impact the euro exchange rate. Technical analysis will also play an important role. Support and resistance levels that have formed in recent days may serve as guideposts for short-term trades. A breakout of these levels could trigger acceleration of current trends.

As for the pound, a speech by Bank of England MPC member Huw Pill is expected only in the afternoon, which is unlikely to provide significant support for growth. Traders will likely prefer to take a wait-and-see approach, waiting for clearer signals regarding future monetary policy. The absence of new incentives or unexpectedly dovish statements could provoke sharp price movements, but for now, the market is quite negative, reacting to the situation in the Middle East.

Pill's speech is perhaps one of the few events that could provide clarity regarding the near-term outlook.

If the data align with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data are much higher or lower than economists' expectations, it is advisable to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1405, which may lead to a rise of the euro toward 1.1422 and 1.1442.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1385, which may lead to a decline toward 1.1365 and 1.1346.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3388, which may lead to a rise of the pound toward 1.3419 and 1.3448.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3356, which may lead to a decline toward 1.3323 and 1.3298.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout above 162.10, which may lead to a rise of the dollar toward 162.35 and 162.64.
• Sell on a breakout below 161.85, which may lead to a decline toward 161.62 and 161.33.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1407 on a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1380 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3388 on a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3358 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6945 on a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6921 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for sell opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4182 on a return below this level.
• Look for buy opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4152 on a return to this level.

In the meantime, it has become known that so-called treasury companies have practically stopped buying Bitcoin. The capitalization of such companies has fallen from $400 billion to $272 billion since last October, but the number of coins on their balances has increased from 950,000 to 1.14 million. Thus, the conclusion is clear. Companies continued to buy Bitcoin at any price, resulting in nearly $100 billion in losses. It should be noted that Strategy consistently invested funds in Bitcoin with little concern for entry points. Bitcoin was bought at any price with any funds, including borrowed ones. Traders can now see the consequences of this. For the first time in 6 years, Strategy is forced to sell "digital gold" to bolster dollar reserves to pay dividends on stock shares, the proceeds of which were directed toward buying Bitcoin.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as bearish, and the CHOCH line has been set at $82,800, as a new LL (Lower Low) has formed. Only above this level can we consider the downward trend finished. Since there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we believe the decline will continue. On the daily timeframe, a bearish FVG has formed in the $68,000–$70,700 range. New sell signals may be formed within this pattern. However, this pattern has not yet been executed.

Overall Picture of BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is in a downward trend, although the overall correction may not be complete. The CHOCH line supporting the correction has been breached. The CHOCH line, which supports the new downward trend, is at $65,600. After the liquidity for purchases was removed, a rise began, as we had warned. Recently, only small, local FVGS have been forming, and the reaction to them has typically been very weak.

Recommendations for Trading BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend. We continue to expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from a three-year upward trend), although this level has already been largely realized. However, we do not believe that the downward trend will end there. The last bearish FVG formed in the $68,000 – $70,700 range on the daily timeframe, so this area serves as a POI (Point of Interest) for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin is still undergoing the second wave of correction, but sell trades remain more attractive as any rise is essentially a correction. Currently, there are no relevant patterns on the 4-hour timeframe.

Comments on Illustrations:

CHOCH – break in trend structure.

Liquidity – Stop Loss, pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG – Fair Value Gap. Price moves quickly through these areas, indicating a complete lack of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react from such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not react and impulsively breaks through, testing from the other side.

OB – Order Block. A candlestick on which the market maker opened a position with the aim of gaining liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Thus, traders will have nothing to react to today. Movements will once again be purely technical for both currency pairs. Only geopolitics can influence market movements.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Monday, we can note the speeches by Federal Reserve representatives Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, European Central Bank's Isabel Schnabel, and the Bank of England's Huw Pill. The ECB's monetary policy stance is currently ambiguous and largely depends on inflation. At the last meeting, the central bank was inclined toward further interest rate hikes, but inflation in the Eurozone has begun to slow, and its future dynamics will depend on the fate of the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict in the Middle East. Forecasting anything on this topic is impossible. As for the BoE and the Fed, their monetary policy will also depend on inflation. Given that the fate of the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and oil prices are rising again, making predictions is extremely difficult. We need to look at the inflation data.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. have signed an agreement remotely; however, too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear issue," the war between Lebanon and Israel, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Theoretically, the market may fear a resumption of full-scale war, but this is clearly not enough for the dollar to begin rising actively again. After all, Tehran and Washington are still on the tracks leading to peace, and negotiations continue. However, events from the past week demonstrate the fragility of any ceasefires between the U.S. and Iran. Negotiations and deals can fall through at any moment.

General Conclusions:

During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very sluggishly, as there are no significant events today. Both the euro and the pound will be traded on "bare" technicals. The euro can be traded from the 1.1420-1.1432 area, while the British pound can be traded from the 1.3380-1.3386 area. We would not expect strong movements or high volatility today.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair slightly decreased on Friday but maintained an upward bias. In recent weeks, the British currency has shown confident growth without visible reasons; however, there are reasons. The last round of decline for the pair was completely illogical and baseless. Now, we have seen a recovery of the British pound to a more or less fair value in the current circumstances. The GBP/USD pair is currently near the trend line, so the market's reaction to it will determine further movement. In the event of a bounce from the trend line, a new round of growth in the British currency can be expected, one that does not require macroeconomic or fundamental support. If the trend line is breached, the British pound may continue to decline. Geopolitics in the Middle East are complicated again, but in the past two months, Iran and the U.S. have not engaged in active hostilities, only occasionally conducting strikes while negotiations continue without yielding results.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

No trading signals were generated on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. Only on Monday night did the price breach the 1.3380-1.3386 area, allowing short positions to be opened targeting 1.3319-1.3331. However, market movements today may again be extremely weak, as there are no scheduled fundamental or macroeconomic events.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend that is currently corrective but could become a full-fledged trend. The conflict in the Middle East, if not entirely resolved, is on pause; the Federal Reserve has only declared a possible interest rate hike by the end of the year, which may not happen, and political crises in the UK have long ceased to be crises. We believe the dollar can only be expected to correct for now.

On Monday, novice traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3380-1.3386 area, targeting 1.3319-1.3331. If the price consolidates above the 1.3380-1.3386 area, long positions can be opened with a target of 1.3456-1.3476.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels to consider are 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Monday, no important events are scheduled in the UK or the US. Thus, movements today will again be technical and unlikely to be volatile.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair broke through the ascending trend line during Friday's trading, while the descending trend line remained relevant. Thus, the pair is much closer to a new decline than to a resumption of growth. It is worth noting that the European currency has been rising for over two weeks, but over this period it rose by only 130 pips. Regardless of the geopolitical, fundamental, and macroeconomic backdrop, market sentiment remains "bearish." On Friday, there were no significant events in Germany, the UK, the US, or the European Union. Therefore, there was nothing for traders to react to throughout the day. On Saturday, it became known that the Middle East could "flare up" again, with Iran once again attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and launching strikes on American military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. However, such developments no longer surprise anyone. Nothing has changed following the signing of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US. On Sunday, Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz once again.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

No trading signals worthy of attention were generated on the 5-minute timeframe on Friday. Only by the end of the day did the price consolidate below the support area of 1.1420-1.1432, and at the beginning of the new week, it is set to continue falling toward the target range of 1.1354-1.1363. However, during the night on Monday or at the overlap of the two weeks, it was extremely difficult to open trades. In our opinion, novice traders should wait for new trading signals.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, a two-month downward trend persists, and over the past few weeks, we have seen only a weak upward correction. Since the upward trend line has been breached, the likelihood of a resumption of the euro's decline is high, and geopolitics may provide background support for the U.S. currency.

On Monday, novice traders can open short positions targeting 1.1354-1.1363 if the price bounces from the 1.1420-1.1432 area. Long positions can be opened with a target of 1.1420-1.1432 if the price bounces off the 1.1354-1.1363 area.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider are 1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1420-1.1432, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, and 1.1830-1.1837. On Monday, no significant events or reports are scheduled in the European Union or the United States. Therefore, volatility may again be weak.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

The GBP/USD currency pair slightly decreased on Friday within the upward trend of recent weeks; however, it maintained its trend. It is clearly visible on the hourly timeframe that the pair remains in an upward trend, so a bounce in the 1.3369-1.3377 area may trigger a new uptrend for the British currency on purely technical grounds. Conversely, consolidating below the 1.3369-1.3377 area would allow the pair to continue falling toward the Senkou Span B line. There were no important macroeconomic and fundamental events on Friday; however, over the weekend, it became known that there were new attacks by Iran on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as strikes on U.S. military bases. Thus, geopolitics is heating up and becoming more complicated, which may support the American currency. As we can see, there is no talk of peace even after a peace agreement was signed in the Middle East. Oil prices have surged again, and at the current pace, they may continue to rise back to $100. The monetary policy of central banks will fully depend on inflation, which in turn is influenced by oil prices.

From a technical standpoint, the British pound remains within an upward trend, clearly indicated by the trend line. The area of 1.3369-1.3377 has been breached and now serves as support. In the coming days, the pair's movements will depend on whether or not the trend line is broken.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, no trading signals were generated. The pair was in decline all day and only reached the 1.3369-1.3377 area last night. Therefore, a new signal may be formulated very soon, and on Friday, there were no grounds for traders to enter the market.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that non-commercial traders with sell positions have dominated the market for several months. The net position is negative, despite the long-term upward trend. Given the events in the Middle East, it's not surprising that demand for risk currencies remains weak. The war is formally over, but the conflict continues. Geopolitics may support demand for the U.S. dollar in the near term. However, until there is consolidation below the trend line, we would not expect a significant decline in the pair.

In the long term, the dollar will continue to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as clearly illustrated on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies are aimed, directly and indirectly, at weakening the American currency. The long-term upward trend remains, as evidenced by the trend line. The price recently interacted with this line and bounced off it. According to the latest COT report (dated July 7), the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,400 BUY contracts and closed 6,800 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 14,200 contracts over the week, a change that does not significantly affect the overall sentiment of professional players.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. In the long term, the British pound still has no strong reason to fall, while the U.S. dollar has no reason to rise. The market has recently ignored most fundamental, geopolitical, and macroeconomic events; on the daily timeframe, the pair has started moving from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary. Therefore, we still expect upward movement.

For July 13, we identify the following important levels: 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681. The Senkou Span B line (1.3331) and Kijun-sen (1.3385) can also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be accounted for when determining trading signals.

On Monday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the United Kingdom, and the U.S. calendar of events is also empty. Thus, movements today will again be technical and likely weak.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may open short positions targeting the Senkou Span B line if the pair consolidates below the 1.3369-1.3377 area. Long positions can be opened in the event of a bounce from the 1.3369-1.3377 area with a target of 1.3465.

Comments on Illustrations:

Price support and resistance levels are marked with thick red lines, around which price movements may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the four-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are marked with thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with low volatility on Friday and primarily sideways. Overall, we have observed low-volatility movement for the seventh consecutive day, exhibiting all the signs of a flat. This is not surprising, as there were very few significant events last week, and the market is no longer paying as much attention to geopolitics as it did in February or March. Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. are once again at risk of collapse; the new round of talks scheduled for July 11 did not take place, and yesterday Iran attacked commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as U.S. military bases located on the territory of allies. This morning it became known that Tehran decided to impose a new blockade on the strait. The "Santa Barbara" in the Middle East continues.

From a technical perspective, the upward trend remains, but the euro is growing extremely weakly. The trend line has been broken twice, and the price may already be consolidating below the Senkou Span B line today. We do not see clear reasons for a new rise in the U.S. dollar, but if the Senkou Span B line is surpassed, this will indicate a very likely resumption of the downward trend that began two months ago. So far, everything is heading in that direction.

On the 5-minute timeframe, only one trading signal was generated on Friday, which made no sense to execute. At the end of the week and the day, the price bounced from the 1.1420-1.1433 area but failed to move higher by even 10 pips. In any case, opening trades before the market closes made no sense.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated July 7. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish" but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been shedding the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Donald Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has temporarily acted as a "reserve currency." However, this process may have already been completed.

We still do not see any fundamental factors to strengthen the European currency, while there remain enough factors for the U.S. dollar to decline. The war in the Middle East has made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor reaches its "expiration date," everything will revert to the norm. And it may have already expired. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past months of dollar growth, the pair has not approached this line significantly.

The position of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 12,200, while the number of shorts increased by 5,100. Consequently, the net position fell by 17,300 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, a corrective upward trend continues to form within the framework of a two-month downward trend. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, but we do not believe that the recent bombings by Iran and the U.S. or uncertainty in the negotiations and prospects for a deal are substantial reasons for further strengthening of the dollar. The market continues to ignore many factors favorable to the euro, so the pair's decline may resume as early as this week.

For July 13, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1433, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1399) and Kijun-sen (1.1425). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set stop-loss orders to break even if the price moves in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves to be false.

No significant events are scheduled for Monday. Thus, today the market may react only to geopolitical events, which may again support the U.S. dollar. We do not believe that there will be high volatility today, but the EUR/USD pair may gradually slide downwards.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions with targets of 1.1362 and 1.1274 if the price consolidates below the Senkou Span B line. Long positions can be maintained with a target of 1.1425-1.1433 in the event of a price bounce from the 1.1362 level, which could serve as the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Volatility remains weak.

Comments on Illustrations:

Price support and resistance levels are marked with thick red lines, around which price movements may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the four-hour one. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels are marked with thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines represent trend lines, trending channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on the COT charts shows the size of the net position for each category of traders.

Geopolitics

It can be assumed that the new trading week will begin with rising oil prices and a strengthening of the U.S. dollar against the backdrop of recent events in the Middle East. On Sunday, the U.S. Central Command announced a third round of strikes on Iranian targets in response to an attack on a civilian vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. The reason for the attack was a strike on a Cypriot-flagged container ship passing through the strait.

In response, Tehran has again struck U.S. military facilities in the Middle East. In particular, authorities in Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates reported on the operation of air defense systems.

Iran has also announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, after which the movement of vessels decreased to a minimum. According to data from the maritime monitoring agency MarineTraffic, only a few vessels passed through Hormuz on Sunday.

It seems that in the coming days, the U.S. and Iran will continue exchanging hard statements, accompanied by limited military actions. Meanwhile, the diplomatic channel will most likely remain open: the parties will continue closed consultations through intermediaries, seeking to create conditions for the resumption of negotiations.

In my opinion, the likelihood of completely abandoning diplomacy now looks lower than the likelihood of its restoration. Both sides have already invested significant political resources in the negotiation process, and the alternative to a truce is a protracted regional conflict with severe economic (and political) consequences for both Iran and the U.S.

All this suggests that in the coming days, the dynamics of EUR/USD will be primarily determined by the degree of risk-averse sentiment in the currency market. If, after another round of escalation, Washington and Tehran return to the negotiating process (as has happened before), traders' attention will quickly shift from geopolitics to macroeconomic agendas. In this case, June inflation data in the U.S. will take center stage—primarily the CPI and PPI reports that could significantly adjust expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions.

Macroeconomic Data

The most important macroeconomic reports for EUR/USD this week will be published in the U.S. on Tuesday and Wednesday. First and foremost, we will learn the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 14. According to most analysts, the overall CPI is expected to slow slightly to 4.0% year-on-year (some estimates suggest 3.9%) after a May surge to 4.2%. This trend will be driven by falling energy prices.

However, the core Consumer Price Index should remain at May's level (i.e., at 2.9%), reflecting ongoing price pressures in the services sector. It is important to note that the dynamics of core inflation will be crucial for market expectations regarding the Fed's future actions. If core CPI comes in at the forecast level or is in the "green zone," the market will solidify its view that the regulator will not rush to lower interest rates in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the possibility of tightening monetary policy in the second half of the year will still be on the agenda. Such an outcome will support the dollar even if the "headline" figure shows a slowdown. Conversely, an unexpected decline in the core index would strengthen "dovish" market sentiment, placing significant pressure on the greenback.

On the following day, July 15, another important inflation indicator will be published in the U.S.: the Producer Price Index (PPI). According to forecasts, the overall PPI will drop to 6.3%, down from a record 6.5% in May. The core index is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9%. Again, regarding the impact on EUR/USD, the core figure will be decisive, allowing us to assess the resilience of price pressures excluding volatile components. If the PPI confirms that producers' exit prices remain elevated, this will provide additional support for the Fed's hawkish position.

In addition to inflation reports, volatility in the EUR/USD pair may be spurred by U.S. June retail sales data, to be published on Thursday, July 16. Following an unexpectedly strong May release, where nominal sales surged by 0.9% (and the control group, directly accounted for in GDP, rose by 0.7%), the June report will show whether this spike was merely an inflationary nominal effect (due to rising gasoline prices) or if consumer activity is indeed maintaining momentum despite the Fed's tight policies. The consensus forecast suggests a slowdown in overall growth to 0.3% (control group – 0.4%). For dollar bulls, it is important that these indicators remain in positive territory, i.e., above zero.

Warsh's Debut in Congress

The two-day appearance of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in Congress (Tuesday, Wednesday) will be one of the key events of the upcoming week. Traders will closely watch his assessment of inflation risks, labor market conditions, and the outlook for monetary policy.

Given Warsh's rhetoric at the June Fed meeting, it can be assumed that he will emphasize the persistence of inflation and the need to keep rates at the current level until convincing signs of a slowdown in price pressures emerge. This is the baseline scenario for his speech.

The main intrigue will be whether Warsh signals the Fed's readiness for a more aggressive scenario. If he explicitly allows for a rate hike in the second half of the year, the dollar will receive significant support across markets. Conversely, if he suggests a rapid shift toward easing monetary policy despite forecasts, the greenback will come under strong pressure. It should be noted that this will be Kevin Warsh's first appearance before Congress as the head of the Fed, so any changes in his rhetoric (compared to the June meeting) could increase volatility in the currency market.

"Technical"

The technical picture for EUR/USD indicates a fading downward impulse and a transition to a "consolidation phase" ahead of a volatile week. The daily chart maintains a global bearish trend under the Kumo cloud, but the pair has found local support at 1.1330 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on the D1 timeframe) and is squeezed within the range of 1.1370 – 1.1460. On the four-hour chart, a strong narrowing of the Bollinger Bands signals a decrease in volatility and a compression of the market's "spring," while the intertwining of the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines confirms a temporary parity of forces between bulls and bears. If risk-averse sentiments strengthen in the market again, and key reports of the week favor the greenback, sellers will break below the support level of 1.1400 (the lower Bollinger Bands line that coincides with the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on H4) and will attempt to retest the price barrier of 1.1330 (the lower Bollinger Bands line on D1).

An alternative scenario will materialize if interest in risky assets is restored (i.e., if the U.S. and Iran return to the negotiating table) and all components of CPI and PPI slow. In this case, the pair could break out of the wedge above 1.1460 to test the boundaries of the 15th figure.

The EUR/USD currency pair had a boring week, with average volatility of 40 pips. It is evident that such volatility indicates only one thing – there are virtually no movements in the market. To be fair, there were virtually no important events this week. Among macroeconomic reports, we can note only the ISM Business Activity Index, whose value fully matched the forecasts. Among fundamental events, we can only mention the Federal Reserve's minutes, which are always exceptionally formal documents. Among geopolitical events, we can highlight another escalation and ceasefire violation in the Middle East, among dozens we have already seen in recent months.

As a result, the market completely ignored both macroeconomics, fundamentals, and geopolitics, as there was virtually nothing to react to. We would like to say a few words about geopolitics separately. Essentially, the situation between the U.S. and Iran remains unchanged. The negotiations are formally ongoing, but Iran refuses any meetings with the American delegation. Tehran is only willing to negotiate through intermediaries. In our view, this fact best illustrates Tehran's desire to negotiate with the U.S. Since there is not much desire, "but they need to negotiate," the talks are progressing very slowly, and there is still no progress on key issues. Each side of the conflict fears demonstrating weakness the most, which is why Donald Trump claims every day that he would have long since crushed Iran, but world leaders and Iran itself constantly persuade him not to do so. However, Tehran continues to refute most of Trump's statements.

Constant escalations near the Strait of Hormuz also indicate that no one wants to give in. Iran wishes to have full control over the strait and to define the rules of the game therein. Trump fully understands that imposing a toll for passing through Hormuz (which Iran wants to implement) is a complete defeat. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz was open and free, so Trump cannot allow Iran to collect tributes from all ships. We are not even discussing the "nuclear issue" now, as there is no chance the parties will start discussing it in the near future. We still believe that the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are merely formal and will not yield anything fruitful. Perhaps, after many years, Tehran and Washington will manage to agree on a long-term peace, but certainly not in the near future.

Meanwhile, the European currency has dropped to the 14th level. In this article, we specifically provide the weekly timeframe to understand the long-term perspective. Currently, the upward trend that began in 2022 continues, and the cumulative correction of the dollar is 38.2% according to Fibonacci. Spoiler alert: the British pound has also corrected by the same 38.2%. There are still no global growth factors for the American currency, and in 2026, the dollar has already exhausted all its trump cards. Therefore, we still expect the resumption of a global upward trend. Despite fairly strong dollar growth on lower timeframes, on higher timeframes it represents a weak correction.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of July 12 is 40 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to move between 1.1374 and 1.1454 on Monday. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downward, indicating a continuation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold territory and formed two bullish divergences, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1414

S2 – 1.1353

S3 – 1.1292

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1475

R2 – 1.1536

R3 – 1.1597

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair maintains a downward trend, presumably a correction within a broader upward trend, as is clearly evident on the daily or weekly timeframe. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative, but in 2026, first geopolitics and then the Fed's hawkish stance have provided powerful support for the American currency. When the price is below the moving average, short positions targeting 1.1374 and 1.1353 can be considered. Above the moving average line, long positions with targets of 1.1454 and 1.1475 are relevant. Bears are currently extremely strong for no apparent reason.

Comments on Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray's levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will move in the coming days, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator—its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair has gained nearly 300 pips over the last two weeks. In our recent reviews, we continuously noted that the last round of decline was illogical, and the subsequent growth has been influenced by two important factors. The first is the recovery of justice, as the British pound had no grounds for such a strong decline in recent months. The second is technical, as a sideways channel has persisted on the weekly timeframe for a whole year. Thus, after testing its lower boundary, the price began to move toward the upper boundary. It is also worth mentioning the Fibonacci level of 38.2%. The European currency corrected by 38.2%, and the British pound by the same amount. The movements are slightly different, but in the long term, they are virtually identical.

Thus, both major currency pairs maintain bullish prospects for the next few years. In the coming weeks, a rise to 1.3700 is expected, with the upper boundary of the sideways channel located there. What factors could help or hinder the British pound from rising another 300 pips?

Geopolitics. In our view, the market will no longer react to every local event. The failure of yet another round of negotiations, the lack of progress on key issues, new ceasefire violations, and new missile strikes—none of this provokes a market reaction anymore. Traders may respond only to a complete resumption of war or to a full, long-term peace.

Monetary Policy of Central Banks. Currently, there are more questions about the monetary policy of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve than answers. The Fed shows readiness to tighten policy but is not rushing into this decision, hoping for a slowdown in inflation against the backdrop of falling oil prices. Next Tuesday, the June consumer price index will be released, and we will find out whether the Fed's expectations are justified. As for the Bank of England, it is not preparing for a rate hike, although it expects inflation to accelerate in the second half of 2026. Thus, at the next meeting, neither central bank intends to raise rates; therefore, the dollar and the pound are on equal footing.

Macroeconomic Data have a rather indirect impact on traders' sentiment in 2026. Therefore, we should not expect a strong market reaction to the next report (even if it is important). Volatility in the pound sterling has also been quite low in recent weeks, indicating how actively the market wants to trade right now.

Let us remind you that a flat is a period of accumulation or distribution of positions by major players for the future. In simpler terms, any flat is a calm before a new trend. In which direction should we expect the new trend? In our opinion, only upward. The dollar has no long-term growth prospects, and the British pound has been in a downward trend for about 16 years. We believe that the upward movement may continue, even on purely technical grounds.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 64 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "medium-low." On Monday, July 13, we thus expect movement within the range limited by the levels of 1.3335 and 1.3463. The upper channel of linear regression is directed downward, indicating a downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered oversold territory twice and formed two bullish divergences, warning of the end of the downward trend, but it has now formed a new bearish divergence.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3367

S2 – 1.3306

S3 – 1.3245

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3489

R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect growth in the U.S. dollar in the long term. The year 2026 is proving super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and, more recently, the Fed's readiness to raise the key interest rate. However, there remains a flat area on the weekly timeframe between 1.3150 and 1.3780, within a four-year upward trend. Long positions with targets of 1.3428 and 1.3463 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price position below the moving average line allows for trading downwards with a target of 1.3245.

Comments on Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is currently strong;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should be conducted;

Murray's levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will move in the coming days, based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator—its entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD pair remains within a local bearish impulse, although the bulls have gained some opportunities over the past two weeks. Last week, the international economic forum in Portugal took place, during which Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the need to bring inflation lower. This is an important development. However, Warsh did not clarify whether the Federal Reserve intends to achieve this through tighter monetary policy or whether it expects inflation to decline naturally as energy prices ease.

Since the market received no clear answer, it will continue to focus on inflation data. At the same time, the latest US labor market figures suggest that inflation is not the only factor policymakers should monitor. Job creation has once again remained relatively weak. Over the past three months, the economy has added approximately 100,000 fewer jobs than traders had expected. As a result, a slowing labor market may force the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to weigh any decision on further monetary tightening much more carefully. The next inflation report should provide a clearer answer as to whether additional policy tightening—currently anticipated by most market participants—is justified.

Over the past week and a half, the euro has managed only a modest recovery. This advance was sufficient to invalidate Imbalance No. 18, allowing traders to shift their focus toward Imbalance No. 17. As long as Imbalance No. 17 remains valid, the bearish impulse remains intact. However, over the past two weeks, the bulls have been unable to push the pair even 100 points higher. This week, the market has largely moved sideways.

In recent weeks, geopolitical developments have taken a back seat to Federal Reserve policy. This week, both Tehran and Washington once again violated the terms of the ceasefire and the agreement reached on June 17, but traders were hardly surprised. Donald Trump also signed an executive order revoking Iran's authorization to export oil, yet this development likewise had little impact on market sentiment.

The market did not react meaningfully to the end of the conflict, so it is equally unsurprising that it has shown little response to renewed tensions. We did not see the widely expected decline in the US dollar as geopolitical risks eased, nor did we see the euro strengthen in response to the European Central Bank's tighter monetary policy. The bears continued to dominate despite a fundamental and geopolitical backdrop that arguably favored the euro.

Now geopolitical developments are once again creating uncertainty, giving the bears a formal justification for renewed selling. In my view, however, traders are effectively pricing in events for the third time before they have actually occurred.

The current technical picture continues to indicate that the bearish impulse that began on April 17 remains in place. Bearish Imbalance No. 17 has not yet been mitigated, while Imbalance No. 18 was invalidated following weak US labor market data. No bullish technical patterns have formed, and none are likely to emerge over the next few days.

Therefore, the bulls may continue their corrective advance toward Imbalance No. 17, but there is currently no reliable technical setup to justify trading that move. It is also worth noting that liquidity has already been swept below the August 1 low from last year (marked by the red line on the chart). At present, this liquidity sweep remains the bulls' only meaningful technical support.

The economic calendar on Friday was virtually empty. There were no major releases apart from Germany's inflation data. The second estimate matched the preliminary reading exactly, confirming a slowdown in annual inflation to 2.4%.

The bulls still have numerous reasons to challenge the dollar in 2026, and the conflict in the Middle East has not materially changed that outlook. Structurally and from a long-term perspective, Donald Trump's policies—which contributed to the US dollar's significant decline last year—remain unchanged.

At present, I do not see any strong fundamental drivers supporting the US dollar despite the FOMC's hawkish rhetoric. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is approaching a series of important lows and swing points where liquidity could be swept. Such a move could provide the technical signal needed to reverse the current bearish impulse.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

The economic calendar for July 13 contains no scheduled events. Consequently, macroeconomic data is once again unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Outlook

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a longer-term bullish trend. Although the fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears four months ago, the broader uptrend cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete.

Therefore, the bulls may launch another advance after liquidity has been swept below the clearly defined lows. However, opening long positions at current levels is not advisable. It would be prudent to wait for bullish technical patterns to emerge first.

At present, traders are monitoring two bearish imbalances, one of which has already been invalidated. I would also highlight the proximity of four significant swing points where liquidity could be swept, together with the questionable fundamental justification for the US dollar's recent strength.

For this reason, I continue to expect a bullish recovery. However, I would prefer to see at least some technical confirmation of that scenario—or alternatively wait for a fresh sell signal to develop within Imbalance No. 17.

GBP/USD posted a strong rally that may mark the beginning of a broader bullish trend. In my view, the US dollar's appreciation between June 17 and June 24 was not supported by the fundamental backdrop. By that time, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East had already been halted, even though it had been the primary driver of the dollar's strength throughout 2026. Therefore, it seems inconsistent for the dollar to strengthen first because of the war and then continue strengthening after the conflict had effectively ended.

It is also surprising that the US dollar failed to gain this week despite a fresh escalation in the Middle East that could have serious consequences. Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire and revoked the authorization allowing Iran to sell oil under the terms of the peace agreement. As a result, the period of relative calm has come to an end. However, traders have so far remained skeptical that the conflict will resume, as similar situations have occurred several times before, with both sides eventually returning to negotiations. In my opinion, the market's limited reaction to the renewed geopolitical tensions is justified.

It is also worth noting that the market initially expected higher US inflation unless the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) intervened. Later, inflation concerns eased as oil prices fell to around $70 per barrel. This week, however, oil prices climbed back toward $80 per barrel, and the latest escalation in the Middle East could once again result in a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports.

Should events unfold according to the most pessimistic scenario, oil prices could quickly return above $100 per barrel. Under such circumstances, hopes for slowing inflation in either the United States or the Eurozone would likely disappear. As a result, the market would once again need to revise its expectations regarding future monetary policy by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

From a technical perspective, the chart suggested a rise toward 1.3322, which is exactly what occurred. The price first swept liquidity below the April 6 low and then below the March 31 low. These liquidity sweeps provided a solid technical basis for expecting further gains in the pound.

Given that the US dollar still lacks convincing long-term bullish drivers—and has already posted an impressive advance during 2026—I believe the bears have largely exhausted their potential. In addition, a bullish imbalance (No. 23) formed last week, and the market has already reacted to it twice.

As for the bearish imbalance (No. 21), I now consider it invalidated. Although the price has not broken through its origin, it has moved too far above the imbalance for it to remain relevant. Therefore, I expect either a continuation of the current rally or the formation of new bullish signals, followed by another upward move after a corrective pullback.

At present, the market remains highly cautious regarding the agreement between Iran and the United States, and recent developments suggest that such caution is justified. Military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz continue to occur regularly despite the memorandum signed several weeks ago.

The Federal Reserve's policy stance triggered a strong rally in the US dollar, yet I still struggle to identify what could allow the bears to maintain further pressure. Can expectations of additional FOMC monetary tightening alone continue to support the dollar?

There were no significant economic releases on Friday. Traders had virtually no macroeconomic data to assess throughout the day. Consequently, technical analysis is likely to remain the primary market driver in the near term.

Overall, the broader fundamental backdrop continues to support a long-term bearish outlook for the US dollar. Neither the conflict between Iran and the United States nor expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 have changed that view.

Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded investors of the US dollar's traditional safe-haven status, but the conflict has either ended or is at least moving toward a resolution. Although the Federal Reserve intends to raise interest rates in 2026—which is supportive for the dollar—it should also be remembered that tighter monetary policy would likely slow both the US economy and the labor market.

In addition, Donald Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as Chair of the FOMC with the expectation that he would pursue a more accommodative monetary policy—something Trump believed Jerome Powell was unwilling to deliver. For this reason, I do not expect the Fed's tightening to develop into a prolonged tightening cycle. Consequently, I believe any appreciation of the US dollar is likely to be temporary rather than the beginning of a sustained long-term trend.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

The economic calendar for July 13 contains no significant releases. Therefore, macroeconomic data is once again unlikely to influence market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Outlook

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. Following the liquidity sweeps below the two most recent swing lows, buyers have an opportunity to regain control of the market.

The pound could still resume its decline toward 1.3007, the level that would invalidate the bullish trend, but this would require fresh bearish technical signals. Since Bearish Imbalance No. 21 has been invalidated, there are currently no remaining bearish signals from that structure.

The bullish case is supported by the two liquidity sweeps as well as Bullish Imbalance No. 23. The market has already reacted to that imbalance, and the next upward targets are the highs of May 1 (1.3656) and January 27 (1.3867).

On the other hand, if crude oil consolidates above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $72.33, this could be interpreted as a buy signal in the coming days, with targets at the Murray 4/8 level, around $75. Ultimately, we expect the instrument to reach the upper band of the bullish channel, which coincides with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), around $77.60.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, we can expect consolidation over the next few days around the psychological level of $70, after which crude oil could resume its upward trend.

Ethereum (ETH/USD) is trading around $1,786, above the 2/8 Murray level and the 21-day moving average, which is driving it above the 200 EMA with a positive bias, although it is showing signs of exhaustion.

In the coming hours, Ethereum could continue its rise until it reaches the upper band of the bullish channel, around $1,865.

Since the Eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, the outlook could turn negative in the coming days.

Therefore, a consolidation below the 2/8 Murray line and below the 200-day moving average could be considered an opportunity to sell Ethereum, with targets at the lower band of the bullish channel—which also coincides with the 1/8 Murray line—around $1,660.

A breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern is seen in the chart. Thus, if ETH remains above this area, it points to a further uptrend in the coming days until the price reaches the 3/8 Murray line, which now acts as strong resistance.

If Ethereum faces strong rejection below $1,875, it will be considered an opportunity to open short positions with targets at the 1/8 Murray line.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1426, rebounding after hitting the lower band of the uptrend channel that has been forming since June 24.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is within an uptrend channel, so EUR/USD could continue its rise in the coming days until it reaches the 200-period moving average around 1.1488; it could even reach the upper band of the uptrend channel around the psychological level of 1.15.

Given that the euro is within an uptrend channel, the outlook for the EUR/USD will trade higher in the coming days, and we believe it could reach the 200-day moving average around 1.1488.

A decisive break below 1.14 could change the outlook for the euro, and we could expect it to retreat toward the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1352 and ultimately reach the June 24 low around 1.1335.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, we could continue buying euros in the coming hours with targets at 1.1521, near the upper band of the uptrend channel.

*See also: InstaForex trading indicators for S&P 500 (SPX)

The S&P 500 closed Wednesday down 0.3% at 7,467.00, caught between renewed geopolitical escalation and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. US President Donald Trump's statement that the ceasefire with Iran has ended pushed Brent above $80/bbl and revived inflation concerns. The index displayed broad divergence: nine of 11 sectors finished in the red, while energy and technology were the only gainers, supported by rising oil and sector-specific semiconductor news.

In early Thursday trade and ahead of the US opening bell, S&P 500 futures (SPX) are attempting to recover, up about 0.3% and trading near 7,500.00. Markets are being supported by stabilizing oil prices and a technical rebound in tech after reports that China may allow leading AI firms to buy a limited number of Nvidia H200 chips. Nevertheless, economists warn that the stagflationary backdrop persists: higher energy prices can re-accelerate inflation and force the Fed into faster tightening.

Fundamental backdrop: hawkish FOMC minutes and sectoral divergence

FOMC minutes confirm dissent

The June FOMC minutes published on Wednesday revealed widening disagreement among officials during Kevin Warsh's debut meeting as chair. Several participants saw grounds for a rate hike as early as June, yet ultimately all 12 FOMC members voted unanimously to maintain the target range at 3.50–3.75%. The minutes noted that upside risks to price stability remain elevated, while downside risks to the labor market have eased somewhat.

Sectoral divergence intensifies

On Wednesday, nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower. Materials (-2.49%), financials (-1.92%), and real estate were the weakest performers, while energy (+1.45%) and technology (+1.44%) outperformed. As Deutsche Bank observed, this pattern reflects a stagflationary environment in which equities suffer on both sides of the Atlantic, and the chip-stock moves have diverged sharply from the broader market.

Technical snapshot

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is trading in a consolidation phase within the ranges of 7,430.00–7,550.00 and the broader 7,380.00–7,600.00, balancing between bullish and bearish signals.

The index is trading above the 50-period EMA (7,380.00) and the 200-period EMA (6,975.00), which supports the view that the medium-term uptrend remains intact. However, price action is consolidating near the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle, implying the potential for either an upside breakout or a return to the support level.

• RSI (14) on the daily chart sits in neutral territory (just above 50), indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions with a mild bullish tilt.
• OsMA and Stochastic are mixed: OsMA remains bullish but shows waning momentum; Stochastic has exited overbought territory and is moving toward the oversold zone without yet entering it.

Key levels

• Immediate resistance: 7,550.00 and 7,600.00.
• Immediate support: 7,479.00 (200-EMA on the 1-hour chart), 7,432.00 (200-EMA on the 4-hour chart), 7,400.00, 7,380.00 (50-EMA on the daily chart).

*See also: S&P 500 (SPX): scenario outlook for July 9, 2026

Overall, the technical picture supports an intact uptrend, but mixed oscillator readings and proximity to the key 7,600.00 resistance level increase the probability of a correction.

Key events to watch

Conclusion and recommendations for investors

The S&P 500 sits at the intersection of a stagflationary backdrop and growing sectoral divergence. Hawkish FOMC minutes and renewed geopolitical escalation create uncertainty, but a still-robust technology complex and hopes for upbeat inflation prints may cap downside.

Bank forecasts diverge:

• BofA remains corrective on Q3 and flags a potential move to 7,120–6,970.
• Tom Lee of BitMine is bullish, projecting the S&P 500 to 8,000 within the year, citing market re-rating and strong corporate profits.

For short-term traders: prioritize shorts on a break below 7,470 with targets at 7,380–7,280. Consider longs only on a confirmed close above 7,530–7,540 together with supporting fundamentals.

For medium-term investors: adopt a wait-and-see stance into the July 14 CPI print and for clarity on geopolitics. A pullback toward 7,380–7,300 can be used to add long exposure, provided structural supports remain in place (solid earnings, ongoing AI investment).

Risk management: remain cautious given elevated volatility. Use stop-loss orders and monitor geopolitical developments and US inflation data closely.