Meanwhile, experts continue to highlight the capital outflow from spot ETF instruments. Reports indicate that approximately $6.5 billion has been withdrawn from funds over the last 30 days, marking the largest monthly capital outflow since their launch in early 2024. Spot ETFs initially provided quick access to cryptocurrencies, which was very convenient for investors. They did not need to open accounts on cryptocurrency exchanges to buy Bitcoin or Ethereum, store various access keys, or deal with transfers between wallets and cryptocurrency exchanges. Hence, buying Bitcoin through an ETF was much easier than through an exchange. However, this fact supported Bitcoin during a bullish trend, while it creates additional problems for it during a bearish one. If it is easier to buy Bitcoin through an ETF, then it is also easier to sell it.

Galaxy Research noted that sales through spot instruments are increasing, and this is no longer an isolated incident, coincidence, or event tied to any specific factor. This is now a trend of capital outflow. BlackRock indicates that an outflow of capital from some spot instruments could signify an inflow into others. According to BlackRock, institutional investors are not completely giving up on Bitcoin but are acting much more cautiously under current circumstances than before. However, relying solely on internal demand, Bitcoin will find it extremely difficult to recover or initiate a new bullish trend. Currently, large investors are focusing more on the AI sector and technology stocks. Only Strategy continues to buy Bitcoin for all the money.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline targeting $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an impending upward trend. The last bearish FVG was formed in the range of $68,000 – $70,700, making this area a point of interest (POI) for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency may be in an upward correction for the near future, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they can consider small longs from bullish patterns. However, the correction could end at any moment.

Trading Recommendations for ETH/USD:

On the daily timeframe, the downward trend that began last August continues. The key selling pattern remains the bearish order block on the weekly timeframe. We do not believe that the current downward trend is complete, as there are no signs of an impending reversal for either Bitcoin or Ethereum. In the near future, Ethereum may resume its decline, targeting $1,391 and $788 if Bitcoin reacts to the bearish FVG on the daily timeframe. Until that happens, small long positions can be considered on the 4-hour timeframe based on bullish patterns. The market did respond to the last bullish FVG, but the growth is very weak. Traders should remember that a correction is simply a correction. It is far better to trade with the trend.

Explanations for Illustrations:

CHOCH – break in trend structure.

Liquidity – liquidity, Stop Loss, and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG – Area of price inefficiency. Price moves through these areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not respond but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.

OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position aimed at gathering liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

On Monday, Bitcoin came under pressure from the market again. News from the Middle East, combined with news from Switzerland, was not entirely clear, so each analyst interpreted it in their own way. Since Bitcoin showed a slight decline, experts immediately concluded that there was weak progress in the negotiations, a new blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, and focused on Trump's new threats to Iran. However, we believe that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is, first, much better than it was a month ago, and, second, that it remains unknown whether the Strait of Hormuz will be closed again. Bitcoin's movements remain fairly weak and corrective. For such movements, specific reasons are not required.

General Picture for BTC/USD on 1D

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downward trend. The trend structure is identified as downward, and the CHOCH line has been moved to $82,800, with a new LL (Lower Low) formed. Only above this level can it be considered that the downward trend has ended. As there are still no signs of an upward trend reversal, we believe the decline will continue. A new bearish FVG has formed within the $68,000 - $70,700 range. Within this pattern, new sell signals may form. However, at the moment, the pattern has not yet been realized.

General Picture for BTC/USD on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues its upward correction. The CHOCH line supporting the correction lies at $60,765. Bearish patterns can be used to open new short positions, but it's best to use the daily timeframe for this purpose. As for buy positions, they may be possible from bullish patterns on the 4-hour timeframe, but one should understand that expecting strong growth during a downward trend is not advisable. The last bullish FVG in the $64,100 - $65,370 range did not produce any reaction, and there has been no structural break on the M30 (as confirmation). A structural breakdown (overcoming the CHOCH line) will indicate a possible resumption of the main trend. No new bullish patterns have been formed in recent days.

Trading Recommendations for BTC/USD:

Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downward trend and a correction against it. We continue to expect a decline with a target of $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the three-year upward trend), and there are still no signs of an upward trend emerging. The last bearish pattern FVG was formed in the range of $68,000 - $70,700, making this area a point of interest for short positions in the coming weeks. On the 4-hour timeframe, the cryptocurrency may be in an upward correction for the near future, so if traders wish to trade against the trend, they may consider small longs from bullish patterns. But the correction can end at any moment.

Explanations for Illustrations:

CHOCH – break in trend structure.

Liquidity – liquidity, Stop Loss, and pending orders that market makers use to build their positions.

FVG – Area of price inefficiency. Price moves through these areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG – Inverted area of price inefficiency. After returning to such an area, the price does not respond but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.

OB – Order Block. The candle on which the market maker opened a position aimed at gathering liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.

There are quite a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Tuesday, but they are all quite uniform. In Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S., indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for June will be released. Let us recall that the U.S. will release its internal ISM business activity indices, which the market values much more than the S&P indices. Thus, attention can be focused on the European indices, which will be released within the same hour.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Tuesday, the speeches by European Central Bank representative Boris Vujcic and Bank of England representative Swati Dhingra are notable. However, it should be remembered that two weeks ago, the ECB held a meeting during which it raised rates for the first time in three years, while the BoE and the Federal Reserve held their meetings last week without making any important decisions. Therefore, given the short time since then, it is unlikely that the tone of the central bank representatives could have changed enough for us to hear anything new in their speeches.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. signed an agreement remotely, but too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, the "nuclear question" which is not even mentioned in the current text of the agreement. This is precisely the issue that started the war and could cause it to resume at any moment. Negotiations on the nuclear deal began over the weekend, and some initial progress was achieved. However, Donald Trump has once again been making threats, and Iran is considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz again, so the situation remains tense and charged. The negotiations continue, but their ultimate result is far from certain.

General Conclusions:

During the second trading day of the week, both currency pairs may begin to correct after last week's declines. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1455-1.1474 and the level of 1.1413, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3259-1.3267. In recent days, the market has been unjustifiably buying the U.S. dollar, which may be a trap set by market makers for bears.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair showed decent growth on Monday, unlike the EUR/USD pair. What caused the divergence between these two major currency pairs? The answer is clear. It became known yesterday that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is resigning. Thus, there will be seven prime ministers in Britain over the last ten years. It is easy to infer that none of them have completed their terms in office, indicating a structural, long-term political crisis. Notably, this crisis began immediately after the Brexit referendum in 2016. The market reacted positively to the news of yet another change in the prime minister. Political analysts suggest that Starmer's government failed to achieve its objectives, lost the trust of the electorate, and overall could not solve the issues left by the Conservatives after 14 years in power. Nonetheless, the market welcomes the change of power in Great Britain. The downward trend in the British pound remains, so the currency can only count on a correction for now.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, two trading signals were formed. During the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3175-1.3180 area with minimal deviation, creating an opportunity for novice traders to open a simple long position. During the American session, the price reached the 1.3259-1.3267 area, allowing traders to take profits on longs and even open short positions. However, there were no movements in the market by the end of the day.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has exited the sideways channel, but we doubt that the decline will continue for long. Of course, if serious reasons arise for renewed dollar strength, this outcome is possible. However, we do not see such reasons at the moment. The conflict in the Middle East, if not completely resolved, remains on hold; the Federal Reserve has only signaled a possible rate hike by the end of the year, and the political crisis in the UK has become routine.

On Tuesday, novice traders can open shorts targeting 1.3175-1.3180 if the price bounces from the 1.3259-1.3267 area. A price consolidation above the 1.3259-1.3267 area will allow for longs targeting 1.3319-1.3331.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered for trading: 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, 1.3695, and 1.3741-1.3751. On Tuesday, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for June are scheduled to be published in the UK and the U.S. The British reports may provoke a slight reaction.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required to form it (a bounce or a breakout). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be disregarded.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair leaned downward again during trading on Monday. What triggered the decline of the European currency this time? First, it is important to note that the fall of the euro was not strong, and the volatility of the pair throughout the day was high. However, after a significant decline last week due to rather dubious and contradictory reasons, the euro has so far failed to show any correction. This means the market remains inclined towards selling, despite everything. On Monday, it became known that the first round of new negotiations between Iran and the U.S. took place in Switzerland, but the results cannot be definitively labeled as positive. The U.S. lifted sanctions on the export of Iranian oil, unfroze some Iranian assets, and discussed a plan for further negotiations, as well as a plan for Iran's reconstruction. It seems like everything is positive, but on the same day, Donald Trump again threatened Iran with new strikes if a nuclear deal is not reached. Additionally, Tehran announced on Sunday that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz because the U.S. and Israel failed to uphold the truce due to the latter's attacks on Lebanon. Currently, it is unclear whether the Strait of Hormuz is open or closed. Thus, it is not possible to definitively call the negotiations in Switzerland positive. But it is better than a new war.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

In the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, one sell trading signal was formed. It was created around 3 PM, but during the American trading session, the pair broke away from the 1.1455-1.1474 range and declined by 20 pips. Better than nothing.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the downward trend has resumed. Since the deal between Iran and the U.S. was signed, the market has one less reason to buy the U.S. dollar. However, the deal could collapse at any moment, as Israel and Lebanon continue to attack each other, and the market ignores factors in favor of the euro. Thus, the dollar remains in a more advantageous position.

On Tuesday, novice traders can open short positions with targets of 1.1354-1.1363 if the price consolidates below 1.1413. Long positions can be opened with a target of 1.1455-1.1474 if the price bounces off 1.1413.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1292, 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1584-1.1594, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1830-1.1837. On Tuesday, the U.S., Germany, and the Eurozone will publish indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for June. We do not consider this data important, but it could provoke a slight reaction in the first half of the day.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form (a bounce or a breakout). The less time it took, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be placed at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.

The GBP/USD currency pair began rising on Monday afternoon, in stark contrast to the EUR/USD pair, which remained stagnant at the same time. It became known on Monday that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has decided to resign. Recall that a month ago, the market was actively "pricing in" the Labour Party's defeat in local elections, many ministers from Starmer's government resigned, and some party members publicly called for Starmer to step down. Therefore, firstly, it can be said that the resignation of another prime minister had long been anticipated.

Secondly, we do not believe that the market sold off the British pound in light of this event. Over the last ten years, Britain has seen six prime ministers come and go. Thus, another minister's resignation has made for a "boring Monday" in the UK. However, the British pound rose confidently on Monday, which can only mean one thing: the market, by contrast, welcomes the Labour leader's resignation.

Most experts believe that Starmer's government has failed to meet the tasks set before it. The results of Starmer's tenure are best reflected in the elections. If, two years ago, Starmer won with a significant lead, over the subsequent two years, he lost, if not all, then the majority of voters' trust. Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, is expected to become the new Prime Minister, as he actively supports expanding social and medical support for citizens, which is why he is popular with the public. Burnham believes that the government should address pressing issues without compromising the standard of living for the British population. Therefore, many currently believe that Burnham will indeed become the new Prime Minister. It is interesting to see how long he will last in this position.

On Monday, the British pound disregarded geopolitics and focused on internal political developments. In recent weeks, the British currency has been falling quite actively, as the Bank of England abandoned plans to tighten monetary policy due to weak inflation, while the Fed, on the other hand, took a somewhat more "hawkish" stance than expected. Recall that Kevin Warsh's rise to power was associated with a softening of policies that Donald Trump demanded. However, Warsh indicated that it is essential to restore inflation to the target level by any means necessary, implying an increase in the key interest rate. Although the tightening process may not begin until September, when Warsh could devise a brilliant plan to delay rate hikes, the market currently believes in tightening in the U.S. but not in Great Britain.

However, we want to note that this situation cannot continue indefinitely. The British pound does not look so bleak that it will keep falling. On the daily and weekly timeframes, upward trends still persist, the Federal Reserve's tightening is not a foregone conclusion, and the BoE may return to "hawkish" views as soon as inflation in the UK starts to rise again. Economists and bankers assure us that it will. Therefore, the pound is not as hopeless as it may seem, and it has been declining within a flat range on higher timeframes for two months...

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 105 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On June 23, we thus expect movement within the range bounded by 1.3145 and 1.3355. The upper linear regression channel is moving sideways, indicating trend uncertainty. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area for the second time and formed a "bullish" divergence, warning of a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3245

S2 – 1.3184

S3 – 1.3123

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3306

R2 – 1.3367

R3 – 1.3428

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the U.S. economy, so we do not expect long-term growth in the U.S. dollar. The year 2026 is turning out to be super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitics and, more recently, the Fed's readiness to raise the key interest rate. Long positions with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price position below the moving average line will allow for bearish trades targeting 1.3184 and 1.3145.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The EUR/USD currency pair traded very calmly and cautiously on Monday. As usual, there were plenty of news items, almost all of which concerned the U.S.-Iranian negotiations and events in the Middle East. Each news agency presented its interpretation of what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz and in Switzerland, where the first round of negotiations took place on Sunday. For instance, some media outlets noted progress in the talks, as the parties agreed on a further meeting schedule and the order of discussion. It was reported that the U.S. has lifted the blockade on Iranian ports, allowed oil exports from Iran, and unfrozen some Iranian assets. One could say that Washington, and personally, Donald Trump, kept their word.

However, at the same time, other media highlighted new threats from Trump towards Iran if a nuclear deal is not reached. Trump, in his characteristic manner, stated in an interview that if Iran refuses to sign an agreement regarding enriched uranium and ballistic missiles, he will deliver a new devastating blow and Iran will be wiped off the map. Nothing new here. In addition, Trump threatened to take control of the Strait of Hormuz if Iran did not lift its blockade.

Speaking of the blockade, according to some news outlets, Iran imposed a new blockade on Sunday in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Recall that neither Israel nor Lebanon was included in the agreement between Trump and Iran, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed dissatisfaction with this fact. Since Israel did not sign any agreements, it has no obligations to either Iran or Lebanon. Therefore, Israeli forces remain in Lebanon, and Israel continues to strike Hezbollah positions.

Iran considers this a "violation of the conditions of the agreement" with Trump, which is why it announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz last night. As a result, on Monday, it was completely unclear whether the strait was open or closed. Additionally, several important unresolved issues remain. It begins with Israel, which refuses to end the war with Lebanon. Furthermore, it remains unclear what concessions Iran and the U.S. are willing to make in the nuclear negotiations. A few days ago, Trump stated that Iran has the right to have nuclear weapons for its self-defense. But we all know that in one day, Trump can make several contradictory statements. If Washington "allows" Iran to possess a certain amount of enriched uranium and missiles, a deal could indeed be possible. In our opinion, Tehran is unlikely to completely abandon enrichment and weapons with nuclear fuel. As Trump urgently needs to conclude the war, Washington is forced to make concessions. Of course, the question arises as to why a war in Iran was needed if, in the end, the country will still have nuclear fuel? However, only the American president can answer this question. Yet, he is unlikely to want to do so...

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of June 23 is 75 pips, which is considered "average." We expect movement in the pair between 1.1362 and 1.1512 on Tuesday. The upper linear regression channel has turned downward, indicating the continuation of the downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area for the second time and formed a "bullish" divergence, which warns of a potential end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1414

S2 – 1.1353

S3 – 1.1292

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1475

R2 – 1.1536

R3 – 1.1597

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement, presumed to be a correction within a global upward trend, as seen on the daily or weekly timeframes. The global fundamental backdrop for the dollar remains negative; however, 2026 is shaping up to be super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitics, followed by the Federal Reserve's readiness to raise the key interest rate. When the price is below the moving average, short positions can be considered with targets of 1.1362 and 1.1353. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets of 1.1597 and 1.1658. The resolution of the conflict in the Middle East has not created any problems for the dollar. Bears are currently very strong, but the daily timeframe shows sideways movement, limiting the potential for dollar growth.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the likely price channel in which the pair will spend the next day based on current volatility indicators;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The GBP/USD currency pair traded in the exact opposite direction of the EUR/USD pair on Monday. This can be easily explained—yesterday, it became known that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer decided to resign. Thus, Britain will get its seventh prime minister in the last ten years. As mentioned previously, there has not been a political crisis in Britain; it has been ongoing for ten years, and everyone has long since gotten used to it. Paradoxically, the market reacted to Starmer's resignation by buying the British pound. Therefore, many experts' theories that about a month ago, the market was desperately selling the pound due to the potential for Starmer's resignation, failed on Monday. A change of prime minister is not necessarily for the worse, and Britain has lived within this political crisis for a long time. However, the British pound has not moved far from its local lows. Therefore, the pair's rise on Monday may be short-lived.

Technically, the downward trend has resumed, as the market has been relentlessly buying dollars for two consecutive days last week. We do not find the downward movement logical or warranted. Instead, we consider it a potential trap for traders. There have been no grounds for such a strong rise in the U.S. currency. The resolution of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the Bank of England's neutral stance, and a strong unemployment report from Britain—these factors should at least have stopped the decline of the British currency. Yet, they were ignored.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, one good buying signal was generated. At the start of the European trading session, the price tested the 1.3179-1.3187 area and bounced off it. By the end of the day, it rose by 45-50 pips, which traders could pocket.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that in recent years, commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines, which reflect the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross and are mostly close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are diverging, and non-commercial traders continue to dominate with... sell positions. Given the events in the Middle East, it is not surprising that demand for risk currencies is low.

In the long term, the dollar continues to weaken due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policy is aimed, both directly and indirectly, at weakening the American currency. However, geopolitical factors are currently in the spotlight, which have recently provided strong support for the dollar. Since the conflict in the Middle East cannot be considered resolved, the U.S. dollar may still show strength in the future. According to the latest COT report (as of June 9), the "Non-commercial" group closed 7,900 buy contracts and opened 4,000 sell contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 11,900 contracts over the week.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has resumed its downward trend, which does not align with the current fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop. However, for three months, the market ignored both fundamentals and macroeconomics, and now it seems to selectively ignore geopolitics while trading based on other factors. We do not believe the British pound deserved such a strong decline.

For June 23, we highlight the following important levels: 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3179-1.3187, 1.3301-1.3309, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3465-1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671-1.3681, 1.3751-1.3763. The Senkou Span B line (1.3393) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3303) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss at breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the correct direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Tuesday, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors will be published in the UK and the US. The market may theoretically react to the British reports, but it largely ignored much more significant reports and events last week. Therefore, it is unlikely there will be any reaction.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider short positions targeting 1.3179-1.3187 if the pair bounces from the 1.3301-1.3309 area. Long positions remain relevant after a bounce from the 1.3179-1.3187 area, with a target of 1.3301-1.3309.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – thick red lines around which movements may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The EUR/USD currency pair attempted to continue its downward movement on Monday. The fall of the European currency began last Wednesday evening when the Federal Reserve announced its readiness to tighten monetary policy to reduce inflation. We still cannot say there was anything unexpected in this decision by the U.S. central bank, as before the June meeting, the market anticipated one rate cut by the end of the year. The meeting has passed, and the market is still waiting... for that rate cut. Perhaps Kevin Warsh's rhetoric was unexpectedly "hawkish," but we do not think that factor can support the dollar for four consecutive days. It's also hard to say that geopolitics is responsible for the U.S. dollar's renewed strength. The conflict in the Middle East has been resolved, and the Strait of Hormuz is currently closer to opening than it was a month ago. The U.S. has begun lifting sanctions and restrictions on Iran, which can also be considered a de-escalation. Thus, in theory, the dollar should now be falling...

In technical terms, the downward trend has resumed, but while the dollar's rise was justified last Wednesday, it hasn't been in the following days. Nevertheless, the trend is again downward, so until it concludes, short positions are prioritized. A new trend line cannot yet be formed, as there is no second clearly defined extreme.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, three trading signals were formed, each of which left much to be desired. All of them are marked in the illustration above. Volatility was again quite weak, so the trades did not yield the desired profit. We cannot call the dollar's strength logical.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated June 9. The weekly timeframe illustration clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders remains "bullish" but has significantly decreased due to geopolitical events. Traders have been offloading the European currency in favor of the U.S. dollar in recent months. Trump's policies have not changed, but the dollar has served as a "reserve currency" for some time. However, this process may already be coming to an end.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strength of the European currency, but there are plenty of factors supporting the fall of the American dollar. The war in the Middle East made the dollar temporarily super attractive, but when this factor expires, everything will revert to its previous state. That expiration could already have occurred. In the long term, the euro could fall to the level of $1.08 (the trend line), but the upward trend will still remain relevant. Over the past few months, the pair has not come particularly close to this line.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator indicates parity between bulls and bears. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group decreased by 15,900, while the number of shorts increased by 19,000. Consequently, the net position decreased by 34,900 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the upward trend has been canceled, and the continuation of the downward trend is in question. The situation in the Middle East has been resolved, so the dollar can no longer expect support from geopolitics. The Fed provided strong support for the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, but it is difficult to explain why the decline continues to this day. The market continues to buy dollars without reason and also ignores factors in favor of the euro.

For June 23, we identify the following levels for trading: 1.1362, 1.1444, 1.1536-1.1542, 1.1585, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1786, 1.1830-1.1837, 1.1907-1.1922, as well as the Ichimoku Senkou Span B line (1.1578) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1520). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set Stop Loss orders to breakeven if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will protect against potential losses if the signal proves false.

On Tuesday, indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors for June will be published in the EU, Germany, and the U.S. The market is unlikely to react significantly to these reports, as it continues to largely ignore the macroeconomic backdrop. The dollar's inertial rise could continue even without substantial reasons.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may stay in short positions targeting 1.1362, as the price has surpassed the level of 1.1444. Long positions can be opened with a target of 1.1536-1.1542 if the pair consolidates above 1.1444.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Price levels of support and resistance (resistance/support) – thick red lines around which movements may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.

Extreme levels – thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.

An obvious answer to this question is "Because the Labour Party suffered a crushing defeat in the elections a month ago." However, upon closer examination, Keir Starmer was not the worst prime minister in UK history. It is hard to say he was worse than Liz Truss or Boris Johnson. The problem likely lies in the inflated expectations of the British people themselves. After the country left the European Union, the standard of living for the British population fell sharply. It decreased to such an extent that, according to various sociological studies, many Brits changed their attitudes towards the EU and would like to return to the European alliance in the future. Therefore, every new government was expected to deliver significant and positive changes. If a prime minister could not show results that reflected on the wallets of British voters, he would immediately face severe criticism and lose trust.

Starmer's government achieved a 4.1% wage increase, a rise in the minimum living wage, a reduction in tariffs on cars, aluminum, and steel amid the trade confrontation with the U.S., and a decrease in the number of migrants. However, upon closer inspection, most of these "achievements" are not significant or substantial. Wages grew by only 4.1%, a normal occurrence given high inflation. The reduction in tariffs did not lower the initial price of cars, aluminum, and so on. Donald Trump started a trade war, and Starmer was only able to mitigate its impact on the British people to a limited extent. The decrease in the number of migrants occurred because the country left the European Union, making entry rules much stricter. Furthermore, migrants were mostly engaged in "black work," which Brits are unwilling to do. Therefore, a decrease in the number of migrants is a rather questionable achievement.

As for failures, the most notable is social policy. Since the Conservatives left a huge "gap" in the budget, Starmer had to patch it. He had to cut spending on social programs and raise certain taxes, which was unlikely to please any voters. The "Peter Mandelson affair," which was mentioned in the "Epstein files," is also cited as a failure. Starmer fired Mandelson, but the unpleasant aftertaste remains.

Considering all of the above, the main problem for Starmer has been the lack of outstanding results demanded by British voters. When it came time for new elections, the British voted not for the Labour Party and not even for the Conservatives. Now, Britain will have its seventh prime minister in the last 10 years.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend, while in the shorter term, it is within a downward segment that may be nearing completion. In my opinion, it is a good time to attempt to form long positions, but the instrument may drop below the 14 level within wave C. If this assumption holds, it would be better to wait a bit longer. I believe the market will also take into account that the European Central Bank is tightening and the possibility that the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the U.S. may be resolved soon.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. Currently, the instrument has built three waves down, while EUR/USD has formed five. Consequently, the pound may limit itself to forming a corrective structure, and both currency pairs could begin forming upward segments of the trend. At the moment, this is merely an assumption, but it is a plausible one. If it is correct, the instrument will begin to rise, with targets around the 35 level and above, and market participants currently have a good opportunity to purchase.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

On Sunday, the first round of negotiations between Iran and the U.S. took place in Switzerland. If we strip away all the "fluff," the outcomes were as follows: Iran gained the right to export oil, which should return about 1.5 million barrels per day to the global market. Iran achieved the unfreezing of some of its assets. The parties also agreed on a "roadmap" for further negotiations and a plan for Iran's reconstruction. If we are talking about tangible results, one could rate the first round of negotiations a 5+. At the very least, the Iranian delegation can give itself such a rating.

However, experts point out that the situation in the Middle East remains "volatile." Washington has fulfilled its commitments under the memorandum of understanding, and the parties now have at least 60 days to address the most pressing issues, particularly the nuclear question. Here, as always, everything is shrouded in ambiguity. It is known that on Sunday, the issue of Iran's nuclear energy was not addressed, which also aligns with the background of the negotiations. Let me remind you that Iran demanded the lifting of the naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions on oil exports, and the unfreezing of assets before moving on to the nuclear issue. Well, its conditions have been met. Now we await the progress of the "nuclear negotiations".

If Tehran and Washington resolve all contentious issues but fail to reach an understanding on the nuclear question, military conflict in the Middle East could resume. I do not think this is likely before the U.S. congressional elections, as Donald Trump needs to quickly announce a deal with Iran to lower fuel prices domestically and emerge as a winner to boost his political ratings. However, all market participants understand that without a nuclear deal, a resumption of war is just a matter of time. In my view, a new conflict in the Middle East is likely, but closer to 2027, when Trump will have a clearer understanding of the balance of power in Congress.

Let me remind you that if the Democrats win the House of Representatives (which is practically guaranteed), Trump will not be able to make all decisions in the country alone. He will need the approval of the Democrats, for example, for new attacks on Iran or for imposing trade tariffs. Certainly, the White House leader would prefer to avoid such an outcome. Therefore, he is currently willing to make any concessions in hopes of persuading Iran to abandon its nuclear weapon ambitions. However, the U.S. president has already "laid down some straw," stating that Iran has a general right to nuclear weapons, just like any other country.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend, while in the shorter term, it is in a downward segment that may be nearing completion. In my opinion, it is a good time to attempt to form long positions, but the instrument may drop below the 14 level within wave C. If this assumption holds true, it would be better to wait a bit longer. I believe the market will also take into account the European Central Bank's tightening and the possibility that the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the U.S. may be resolved soon.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer. Currently, the instrument has formed three waves down, while EUR/USD has formed five. Consequently, the pound may limit itself to forming a corrective structure, and both currency pairs may begin forming upward segments of the trend. At this moment, this is merely an assumption, but it is a plausible one. If it is correct, the instrument will start to rise, with targets around the 35 level and above, and market participants currently have a good opportunity to purchase.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complicated structures are difficult to trade and often involve changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

Geopolitics remains at the forefront of EUR/USD traders' attention. One could say that market participants exhibit cautious optimism regarding the initial outcomes of the negotiations, but also maintain a "healthy skepticism" about the prospects for a full-fledged deal.

However, there is a clear dominance of positive signals over negative ones on Monday. Therefore, I believe the market is currently overly conservative in its assessments of ongoing events. Consequently, EUR/USD buyers have not yet been able to realize the "accumulated potential" that, under a more favorable interpretation of the news backdrop, could have already pushed the pair to higher price levels, at least into the area of the 15 range.

According to Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the talks in Burgenstock "demonstrated encouraging progress." He specified that the parties agreed on a roadmap to reach a final agreement within the next 60 days and to establish a high-level committee for political oversight. As the Prime Minister noted, "discussions took place in a positive and constructive atmosphere and yielded encouraging results."

Meanwhile, Iran's Minister of Economy, Seyed Ali Madanizadeh, announced that the process of unfreezing Iranian assets began on Monday. He stated that the central bank started implementing "necessary measures to unfreeze Iran's blocked foreign reserves."

Finally, U.S. Vice President JD Vance remarked that talks was "very, very successful," as the parties made significant progress in negotiations. According to him, Iran specifically agreed to allow UN and IAEA inspectors into the country to monitor compliance with the agreements reached. Vance compared the deal to building a house, noting that although "the house is not built yet, a good foundation has already been laid."

In other words, despite the Iranian delegation leaving the summit in Burgenstock, the parties were still able to officially approve the roadmap. This is an important point for the next stage of the negotiation process—on Monday, negotiations at the working group level commenced in Switzerland (with the Iranian team led by a senior official—the Deputy Foreign Minister) to work out specific mechanisms for implementing the agreement.

So why do unsettling (more accurately, skeptical) sentiments persist in the market despite the overtly positive comments from the U.S., Pakistan, and Iran?

In my view, several fundamental factors need to be highlighted.

Firstly, serious disagreements regarding the nuclear program remain. The United States insists on the principle of "zero enrichment" and demands that Iran dismantle its centrifuges and impose a lengthy moratorium on further developments for up to 20 years. Tehran, for its part, refuses to set limitations for more than 10 years and states that it is not ready to take measures that it believes infringe on the country's right to develop a peaceful nuclear program.

Secondly, there is the "Israel factor." As is well known, Israel is not directly involved in the negotiation process, but the memorandum agreed upon between Washington and Tehran is based on the assumption that the U.S. can control Israel, and Iran can manage its proxy forces in the region. This is why many analysts consider this moment one of the main risks—even if final agreements are reached between Washington and Tehran, regional players not formally tied to the deal remain. Any military action from Israel or Iranian proxy forces could "nullify" the Swiss agreements.

Incidentally, parallel to the Swiss negotiations, talks between Israel and the official government of Lebanon are taking place in Washington under the "supervision" of Donald Trump. Preliminary data suggests that the sides have already agreed on "pilot zones" in southern Lebanon from which Israeli forces should withdraw and transfer control to the regular Lebanese army. However, whether these talks will be successful remains an open question.

Thus, EUR/USD traders are effectively taking a wait-and-see position amid the complex and multi-layered diplomatic process. The further movement of EUR/USD will largely depend on how successfully negotiations progress, not only in Burgenstock but also in Washington. Any progress in either direction could boost interest in risk assets and support the euro, while new diplomatic failures or spikes in regional tensions in the Middle East would once again drive demand for safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar.

The intrigue remains, so the balance of power could shift in either direction, despite positive signals currently outweighing negative ones. In such uncertainty, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach with the EUR/USD pair—at least until clearer signals emerge regarding the future of the negotiation process.

Bitcoin is trading around $64,069 above the 21 SMA and within the uptrend channel that has formed since early June.

Over the weekend, Bitcoin managed to rebound above $62,500, reaching a high of around $64,000. BTC could rise in the coming hours, although signs of exhaustion are evident.

If Bitcoin consolidates above the 21 SMA around $63,473 in the coming hours, we could view this area as a good entry point for long positions, with targets at the 200 EMA around $67,537.

If downward pressure continues but the lower band of the uptrend channel proves to be strong support, we could view this zone around $63,000–$62,900 as a good buying opportunity.

A technical bounce around the 0/8 Murray level at $62,500 could give Bitcoin a bullish outlook in the coming days. Conversely, trading below this zone could keep Bitcoin under bearish pressure, and we could expect it to reach the psychological level of $60,000 or even the -1/8 Murray level.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, but we could expect Bitcoin to consolidate; however, if the BTC price remains above $62,500, we could open long positions.

Gold is trading around $4,188, above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the July 11 low to the June 16 high, suggesting that we could expect the uptrend to continue over the next few hours until it reaches the 21-day SMA.

Last Friday, gold closed the session early due to a US holiday, so there was no price movement, which provided strong upward momentum at the start of this week. It is currently rebounding above $4,136 and could reach $4,230 for now. Below this area, we could expect a technical correction before the upward trend resumes.

At current price levels around $4,188, we could consider buying options, provided the price consolidates above the 61.8% Fibonacci level—which would support a recovery in gold—and we could expect it to reach its first target at the 38.2% level around $4,245 and ultimately reach the 23.6% level around $4,305.

Conversely, if gold breaks below the small symmetrical triangle formed during the consolidation around $4,140 and breaks below this zone, we could expect the downtrend to continue, and gold could reach the 5/8 Murray level around $4,062.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to buy gold whenever the price consolidates above $4,160 or $4,180, with targets at $4,250, $4,300, and finally at the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375. The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, which supports our bullish strategy.

The euro is trading around 1.1466, rebounding after hitting a low of 1.1416—a level that coincided with the lower band of the downtrend channel formed since May and also aligned with the -1/8 Murray level. We believe EUR/USD could continue its rebound in the coming days until it reaches the strong resistance at the psychological level of 1.15.

If the euro encounters strong resistance around the 0/8 Murray line near 1.1474 in the coming hours, we could expect it to retreat toward the 1.1413 level (the -1/8 Murray line), and this area could, in turn, form a double bottom pattern.

Given that the euro is under downward pressure, we could open short positions below the 0/8 Murray level, expecting the euro to consolidate around 1.1413 in the coming days.

If EUR/USD reaches the psychological level of 1.15 around this area, it could be viewed as a zone to open short positions, with targets at 1.1413.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we believe the euro could continue to fall in the coming days; however, EUR/USD could enter oversold territory and experience a strong technical rebound.

EUR/USD declined by 190 points last week, after which bearish pressure faded, while bulls failed to launch a meaningful counterattack. At present, there is no discussion of a renewed conflict in the Middle East, although on Monday Donald Trump threatened Iran with new strikes if a nuclear agreement is not signed within 60 days. Trump also stated that the United States could take control of the Strait of Hormuz and charge vessels for security services.

At this stage, however, these statements remain largely rhetorical. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington have only just begun, and both sides have two months to break the diplomatic deadlock. The very fact that a temporary ceasefire agreement was signed last week already says a great deal. Nevertheless, traders remain reluctant to draw conclusions and abandon the safe-haven U.S. dollar. The situation is gradually moving in the right direction, but it could deteriorate again at any moment. The market understands this, which is why bulls remain on the sidelines.

From a local perspective, the market remains in a bearish phase, while the broader trend remains bullish. Traders can currently consider positions only from imbalance 17. Opening long positions requires a change in the technical picture, such as the invalidation of imbalance 17.

Geopolitics moved into the background last week. Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding, extended the ceasefire for 60 days, and began work on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Nuclear negotiations began on Sunday in Switzerland. However, the market did not deliver the expected decline in the U.S. dollar following the reduction in geopolitical tensions. Nor did the euro benefit from the ECB's tighter monetary policy stance.

As a result, bears continue to control market momentum despite the prevailing fundamental and geopolitical backdrop. In this situation, it is necessary to wait for the bearish phase to run its course. The broader bullish trend remains intact.

Bearish imbalance 16 ultimately held, but price moved above it, so it would be premature to treat it as a confirmed sell signal. In my view, if not for the FOMC meeting, the pair would not have experienced such a significant decline. Consequently, imbalance 16 was close to being invalidated, and market developments appeared to be moving in that direction.

The current technical picture points to the continuation of the bearish impulse that began on April 17. On Friday, liquidity was taken below the March 19 and March 30 lows, which offers some hope for the bulls, but for now it remains only hope. Two days have passed, and the euro remains much closer to another decline than to a recovery. In addition, bearish imbalance 17 was formed on Friday.

It is worth emphasizing once again that the entire appreciation of the U.S. dollar between January and March was driven primarily by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bearish pressure immediately subsided, and bulls dominated trading for more than a month. At present, the agreement has been signed, and the market had been preparing for another advance in EUR/USD, but the dollar received substantial support from the Federal Reserve's shift toward a more hawkish stance.

Despite last week's dollar strength, the expectation remains that the current bearish impulse will eventually end and that the broader bullish trend will resume.

There was no economic data on Monday. Throughout the day, however, a large number of geopolitical headlines crossed the wires. Despite the fact that negotiations ultimately took place, the market continues to favor EUR/USD selling. In my opinion, current market movements are not entirely consistent with the broader fundamental backdrop.

There remain numerous reasons for bulls to stay active in 2026, and the conflict in the Middle East has not diminished them. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies, which contributed to the sharp decline in the dollar last year, have not changed. At present, there are no significant long-term support factors for the U.S. dollar despite the hawkish tone of the FOMC.

EUR/USD is approaching a series of significant lows and swing points where liquidity may be taken. Such a move could serve as a signal for a reversal of the current bearish impulse.

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

• Germany – Manufacturing PMI (07:30 UTC)
• Germany – Services PMI (07:30 UTC)
• Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC)
• Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC)
• United States – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
• United States – Services PMI (13:45 UTC)

The June 23 economic calendar contains six releases, with particular attention warranted for the European PMI data. Economic reports may influence market sentiment throughout Tuesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a broader bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of the bears four months ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered canceled or completed. Therefore, bulls may launch a new advance after liquidity is taken below clearly defined lows, although opening long positions at present is not advisable. First, the bearish impulse must be completed and bullish patterns must emerge.

For now, traders should wait for new patterns to form, preferably bullish ones. Last week, bearish imbalance 17 was formed and may be used as a basis for short positions. Attention should also be paid to the proximity of four significant swing points where liquidity may be taken, potentially paving the way for a new bullish impulse.

GBP/USD generally continues its downward movement, but the pound posted a strong rally on Monday. This move could only have occurred for one reason—the resignation of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This is not the first time a British prime minister has left office ahead of schedule. The previous six prime ministers were also forced to leave Downing Street before completing their terms.

It can be assumed that the market reacted positively to Starmer's departure, as EUR/USD showed no comparable gains on Monday. However, it is still far too early to talk about the end of the bearish phase. No reversal signals have formed, no liquidity grab below the March 31 low has occurred, and no bullish patterns have emerged. Furthermore, it was impossible to anticipate Starmer's resignation on Monday—or the market's positive reaction to it. It is worth recalling that just a few weeks ago traders were actively selling the pound following reports of the Labour Party's poor performance in local elections.

Therefore, today's rally in the pound may prove short-lived, and there was no practical way to position for it in advance. The latest pattern—a bearish imbalance—still gives traders grounds to expect another decline and to look for short opportunities rather than long positions.

The U.S. dollar tends to perform better than the euro and the pound during periods of geopolitical tension. Consequently, both the euro and the pound may still receive support if risk appetite improves. At the moment, the market remains cautious regarding the agreement between Iran and the United States and is waiting for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is not an easy task in itself.

However, it can now at least be said that the war has officially ended—at least for the time being. The Fed triggered a strong rally in the U.S. dollar, but I still do not see what could allow bears to maintain their pressure. In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's substantial declines this year.

The technical picture is currently as follows. Last week, a new bearish imbalance (21) formed. Therefore, traders may use the market's reaction to this pattern as a basis for opening short positions. I would also note the proximity of the March 31 swing low, where a liquidity grab may occur. If that happens, bulls could launch a counterattack based on the combination of factors. For now, however, the local technical picture remains bearish.

There was no significant economic news on Monday, but reports of Keir Starmer's resignation triggered a strong bullish move. Whether this rally will prove sustainable remains unclear. A bearish pattern remains overhead, so my short-term outlook remains bearish.

The broader fundamental backdrop continues to suggest that, in the long run, I can expect little other than U.S. dollar weakness. The conflict between Iran and the United States has not changed that outlook. Neither has the possibility of further Fed rate hikes. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the overall environment for the U.S. currency remains less favorable.

The Fed intends to raise interest rates in 2026, which is supportive for the dollar. However, it should not be forgotten that tighter monetary policy will slow the U.S. economy. I also believe that any Fed tightening will be a temporary measure aimed at bringing inflation down quickly, after which the Federal Reserve will return to an easing cycle.

Therefore, in my opinion, any strength in the dollar is temporary. Nevertheless, traders should not ignore the technical picture, which currently indicates a fairly high probability of further declines in GBP/USD over the coming weeks. If the technical outlook turns bullish, both the fundamental and technical factors would then point in the same direction.

News Calendar for the United Kingdom and the United States

• United Kingdom – Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC)
• United Kingdom – Services PMI (08:30 UTC)
• United States – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
• United States – Services PMI (13:45 UTC)

The June 23 economic calendar contains four notable releases, with the UK PMI reports being the most important. Economic data is likely to influence market sentiment on Tuesday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish, but at present the only active pattern is the bearish imbalance (21). Therefore, traders should focus on the market's reaction to this pattern and the possibility of another decline if they are looking for new trading opportunities.

If this pattern generates a fresh sell signal, the pound could decline toward the bullish trend invalidation level at 1.3007. The only argument currently favoring the bulls is the proximity of the 1.3158 low, where a liquidity grab may occur. However, as of now, liquidity below that low has not been taken.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Falling oil prices have freed the Fed's hands while simultaneously depriving its competitors of their main trump — the inflation argument for tightening policy. HSBC believes that the lack of clear leadership and greater attention to inflation support the scenario of a Fed rate hike. That, in turn, favors the US dollar via the bond-yield differential. Market expectations for Fed tightening continue to rise, while expectations for monetary restriction elsewhere have receded following the recent oil price drop.

The numbers confirm the shift in sentiment. The futures market is now almost fully pricing in a quarter-point federal funds rate hike as soon as September. Will that be enough to sustain a further slide in EUR/USD? That will depend on the Fed's actual actions.

Odds of a Fed rate hike

The ECB has already raised rates — in June, for the first time since 2023. The bank says the war in Iran has made inflation no longer purely an energy story. Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva warned that the regulator must closely monitor the pass-through of surging oil and commodity prices into wages. The eurozone labor market is on pins and needles waiting for the first signs of that process.

However, a single rate increase was not enough for the euro to claim victory. Bank of America remains tactically short EUR/USD. In their view, the euro did not benefit from the ECB's hawkish narrative, and further currency moves will depend on inflation persistence and the Fed's stance. The real yield differential remains a particularly informative indicator — and so far it does not favor the regional currency.

If the Fed now holds two trump cards — accelerating inflation and a shrinking geopolitical premium — the ECB has only one left: another act of monetary tightening. Moreover, that is already priced into markets. Until the real rates differential reverses, EUR/USD risks remaining hostage to market expectations.

Technically, the daily chart shows a battle around the pivot level at 1.1455. A win for the bulls and a move above the pin-bar high at 1.1480 would set up long positions. Conversely, a victory for the bears would likely mean a continuation of the downtrend.

See also: InstaForex trading indicators for WTI (CL).

The oil market enters the new week in extreme uncertainty, balancing between hope and fear. WTI crude prices have made sharp, two-way moves: on Monday, the contract first surged about 2% to $79 a barrel, then just as swiftly retreated to $76. These roller-coaster moves are the culmination of conflicting signals from the Middle East, where talks between the United States and Iran inch toward a resolution and then stall again.

Investors find themselves at the epicenter of a contest between two powerful forces: diplomatic progress, which would return significant volumes of oil to the market, and the fragility of that progress and the threat of a renewed escalation that could instantly choke supplies through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Fundamental backdrop: between peace and war

1. US-Iran talks: one step forward, two steps back

Monday began with encouraging headlines. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan announced a joint statement in which the United States and Iran reaffirmed commitment to a roadmap to resolve the conflict "on all fronts" within 60 days and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Reports said Iran received promises of relief from oil export sanctions, an easing of the US naval blockade, and the unblocking of some assets..

But the euphoria proved short-lived. The Iranian delegation suspended talks in protest at harsh statements by US President Donald Trump, who on social media threatened Iran with a new military campaign if his allies in Lebanon continued attacks on Israel. That threat returned a bearish tone to markets. Investors recognized that the diplomatic process remains extremely fragile and that a single imprudent word could wipe out the gains. Iran also accused the US and Israel of breaching the ceasefire and again threatened to close the strait — a step that did occur over the weekend.

2. Flows of oil: slow recovery instead of quick surge

Geopolitical risk has given way to expectations of real market change. US Vice President J.D. Vance reported that more than 12 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz overnight, confirming a loosening of the blockade and a resumption of tanker movements.

Recovery will not be quick, however. The road to a durable resolution in the Middle East remains fragile, and even with successful talks normalizing Iranian exports — which before the conflict supplied about 1.5–1.9 million barrels per day — will take months and require rebuilding infrastructure, insurance coverage, and logistics chains. Last week's collapse in inflation swaps was direct evidence that markets have started to discount a stagflationary shock, analysts say.

3. The Fed: hawkish tailwind for USD

Do not discount the macroeconomic backdrop. The Fed's hawkish signal and a dollar at multi-year highs apply additional downward pressure on commodity prices. High odds of continued restrictive US policy reduce appetite for risk and make dollar-priced oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Summary table of fundamental factors

Brief technical analysis

Technically, WTI remains trapped inside a bearish descending channel on the 4-hour chart that has formed since mid-May.

WTI futures (CL in the terminal) are consolidating ahead of the US session around $76.00 per barrel after unsuccessfully testing resistance near $78.00 (weekly 50-EMA)–$79.00 (1-hour 144-EMA).

Key events to watch

- Every day: US-Iran negotiations — any news of progress or deadlock will trigger sharp moves.

- 23 June: API weekly inventory release — a gauge of physical US demand.

- 24 June: EIA inventories — the official report confirming surplus or deficit.

- End of the week: outcomes of the Switzerland negotiations — these will determine the trend for the coming weeks.

Conclusion

The oil market remains hostage to geopolitical swings, where every new headline can change the entire picture. The current downtrend is driven by hopes for peace and a return of Iranian barrels, but the fragility of those hopes prevents prices from collapsing decisively.

The key battleground is the 74.00/73.00–78.00/80.00 zone.

For more information, also view WTI (CL): scenario dynamics for 22.06.2026.

A break below will open the path back toward pre-conflict levels, while a return above 80.00 could signal the return of a geopolitical premium. The main risk to bears is an unexpected escalation. The main risk to bulls is unexpected diplomatic progress that removes the premium.

See also today's reviews:

- USD/CAD: Uptrend loses momentum? Overheat versus fundamentals

- USD/CAD: possible dynamics for 22.06.2026

The story began promisingly. In late 2024, Strategy's shares were approaching the psychologically important $500 mark, and its strategy of buying Bitcoin with raised capital inspired a whole host of imitators. Following in Michael Saylor's footsteps were Metaplanet, BitMine, Twenty One Capital and SharpLink.

However, BTC/USD has fallen almost in half from its October peak last year, and not all firms copying Saylor's idea have managed to profit. They are now bracing for an imminent collapse.

Bitcoin and Strategy dynamics

Strategy's mechanism looked flawless on paper: the company sells preferred securities at a par value of $100, immediately using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin, and investors in return receive a double-digit annual dividend yield. However, since May 15, the date of the last payment, the securities have not once traded at par. By the end of the week of June 18, their price briefly dipped below $108.

In practice, this means the company is raising capital at a loss — the effective yield it ends up paying is higher than the advertised rate. It creates a vicious circle: the lower the prices of the preferred shares, the more expensive the financing becomes, and the higher the risks across the capital structure.

Strategy doesn't have many options left. Either it sells a large amount of Bitcoin or common shares to bring the preferred securities closer to par, or it will have to watch "every part of the capitalization structure melt away due to uncertainty."

What price will Strategy and its followers pay for the experiment of debt-financing cryptocurrency? The collapse of the company and its peers could cause a serious loss of confidence in the entire crypto industry, leading to a further collapse in BTC/USD.

The macroeconomic backdrop also contributes to Bitcoin's oblivion. Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes are hitting not only Bitcoin but all risky assets, creating a harsh environment for cryptocurrencies. The market could push the timing of monetary policy tightening into July. That would lead to higher Treasury yields, strengthen the US dollar and extend the crypto winter for BTC/USD.

Technically, on the daily Bitcoin chart, there is consolidation near a fair value of $63,400. A breakout of resistance at the pivot level of $65,800, followed by activation of a 1-2-3 reversal, pattern could provide a basis for buying. Conversely, a drop below key supports at $62,200 and $60,700 would increase the risk of the downtrend resuming and bring selling BTC/USD back into focus.

The result is predictable: less efficient miners shut down operations, the hash rate falls, and mining difficulty declines accordingly. Last week, difficulty plunged 10% — the second-largest drop since January this year. For the market, this is a two-edged signal: on one hand, forced miner sell-offs create constant downward pressure on price. On the other hand, miner capitulation has historically preceded the end of bear cycles.

JPMorgan believes the current weakness could act as a contrarian buy signal for Bitcoin. The logic is classic cycle theory: when miners capitulate and leave the market, bitcoin supply from that source falls sharply. The remaining players — more efficient and lower-cost — continue operating but sell less. A 10% weekly drop in difficulty means weak players are already exiting — so one of the main sources of forced supply is starting to dry up. This aligns with other signals we've noted earlier: long-term holder transfers to exchanges have fallen to their lowest level since 2015, and the share of supply trading at a loss has reached 50% — another historical sign of capitulation.

The aggregate picture is mixed — but that is precisely what a cycle bottom looks like in real time, not in hindsight.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $64,300, which would open a direct path to $66,000 and put $67,700 within reach; a break above that level would signal attempts to restore a bull market. On the downside, buyers are expected around $62,800. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $61,200. The furthest downside target is $59,600.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,752 would open a direct path to $1,838. The more distant target is the high near $1,901; a break above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, buyers are expected at $1,686. A move back below that level could quickly push ETH toward $1,615. The furthest downside target is $1,557.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

A price test of 161.75 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. A second test of 161.75 occurred when the MACD was in overbought territory, which triggered the execution of Scenario #2 for selling the dollar. However, a significant decline in the pair has not yet occurred.

During the U.S. trading session, no major U.S. macroeconomic data is expected, which shifts full attention to the upcoming speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. Of particular interest are his potential comments regarding the Federal Reserve's recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged while revising expectations toward a more hawkish stance. Any hints from Waller in favor of maintaining tight monetary policy could lead to a significant strengthening of the dollar against the yen, which has recently fallen to its yearly lows. Any unexpected statements or new information related to monetary policy or its interaction with external economic factors will be quickly interpreted by traders and analysts, potentially leading to notable moves in USD/JPY and possibly prompting intervention considerations from the Bank of Japan.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 161.78 (green line on the chart), with a target of 162.07 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 162.07 I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from that level). A strong rally in the pair today is possible but remains limited. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 161.62 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 161.78 and 162.07 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 161.62 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 161.34, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair may return today in the event of central bank intervention. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 161.78 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 161.62 and 161.34 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

A price test of 1.3195 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the pound; however, no significant decline followed.

The pound showed remarkable resilience despite the main political news of the day—the announcement by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer of his resignation. The financial market's reaction to this event was surprisingly subdued, and there is a simple reason for this: the resignation had largely been priced in in advance. The market appears to have already fully incorporated the possible leadership change scenario, which allowed the currency to maintain its position. Further behavior of the British pound will depend on the broader context—global economic trends, as well as the first statements and actions of the new leadership that is yet to be selected.

During the U.S. session, there is also no economic data from the United States, so attention will shift to remarks from FOMC member Christopher Waller. It will be particularly interesting to hear his comments regarding the Fed's recent shift toward a more hawkish tone. Special attention will be paid to the tone of his statements. Any signals regarding the continuation of tight monetary policy or, conversely, potential easing could trigger significant volatility in the currency market. In addition, Waller's comments on geopolitical developments, particularly the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, may also have some impact on the U.S. dollar.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3248 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3281 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3281 I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A strong rally in the pound is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3221 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3248 and 1.3281 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3221 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3170, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Selling pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3248 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3221 and 1.3170 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news events, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

A price test of 1.1448 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair did not continue to decline afterward.

It is clear that the absence of important eurozone statistics affected euro volatility. Uncertainty caused by data gaps and the lack of statements from European policymakers created a calm environment in the currency market. During today's U.S. trading session, despite the absence of fresh economic data from the United States, traders will focus on remarks from FOMC member Christopher Waller. His upcoming speech may provide key signals regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions, especially after recent decisions related to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, euro purchases can be considered at a price around 1.1475 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1512. At 1.1512, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further euro growth is only possible in the case of a dovish Fed stance. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1448 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. In this case, a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1475 and 1.1512 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1448 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1411, where I plan to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1475 level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1448 and 1.1411 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – expected take-profit level or area for manual profit-taking, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, traders should pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before major fundamental news releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are a fundamentally losing strategy for intraday traders.