The USD/CAD pair is showing a slight decline, as the US dollar pauses after its recent rise. The pair is partially retreating from its recent highs despite the ongoing favorable geopolitical situation for safe-haven assets.

Market conditions remain defined by events in the Middle East. Concerns have resurfaced following reports that Iran has suspended indirect communications with the United States, which increases the risks of renewed regional escalation. This situation supports demand for the US dollar, although investors appear to be taking a more cautious approach after the recent strengthening of the American currency.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar is receiving some support as markets reassess the impact of geopolitical tensions on energy prices. However, despite the recent decline in oil prices, risks to global supplies remain significant, especially considering potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

Investors are also closely analyzing new economic data from the US. According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the total number of job openings in the US rose to 7.618 million in April, up from a revised 6.887 million in March, significantly exceeding market expectations of 6.88 million. This data supports the view that the US labor market remains resilient despite tightening financial conditions.

These data reinforce the need for Federal Reserve representatives to adopt a cautious approach regarding any potential easing of monetary policy. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack noted that labor market data confirms stability while emphasizing that inflation remains a serious challenge.

In Canada, investors are monitoring the resumption of trade negotiations between Canada and the US. Scotiabank analysts point out that the Canadian dollar has been lagging behind its G10 counterparts, but they also indicate that the stabilization of yield spreads between the two countries may provide moderate support for the Canadian currency in the coming days.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is trading near Monday's high, close to the May peak. Additionally, prices are above all significant moving averages, confirming a positive sentiment. Oscillators are positive, indicating the bulls' advantage in the market. The bulls' target is the zone between 1.3877 and 1.3900. Support for the pair has been found at the 200-day SMA.

The table below provides data on the percentage changes of the Canadian dollar (CAD) against major currencies for Tuesday. The greatest strengthening of the Canadian dollar has been recorded against the Japanese yen.

On Monday, the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for US manufacturing entered the "green zone," hitting a four-year high. Instead of the expected rise to 53.3, the index jumped to 54.0, marking its highest value since May 2022. The index has been in the expansion zone for the fifth consecutive month, and the report's key subindices also supported the greenback.

The main driver of growth was the new orders subindex, which reached 56.8, adding 2.7 points. This indicates robust domestic demand. Of the six largest industrial sectors, four reported net growth (computer and electronic products, chemicals, transportation equipment, and machinery). Export demand also returned to the expansion zone, rising to 50.6. Against this backdrop, the production subindex climbed to 54.3.

The prices subindex saw a slight correction after its April surge to 84.6. In May, this indicator fell to 82.1. On the one hand, prices remain extremely high—manufacturing companies are forced to operate amid rising raw-material and logistics costs (more than half of the survey participants noted high price volatility as a key issue for business). On the other hand, the downward trend of the subindex signals that the pace of price growth is indeed slowing.

The employment subindex remains in the contraction zone at 48.6. However, there is a glimmer of hope here: in May, this figure showed a marked improvement, rising by 2.2 points. This suggests that the industrial sector is now cutting jobs more slowly.

The Supplier Deliveries subindex is also holding at a high level of 60.6, which measures the speed of delivery of raw materials and supplies from suppliers to manufacturers. However, it should be clarified that this indicator operates under reverse interpretation, so such a high value indicates a continued slowdown in deliveries. This is a mixed signal: on the one hand, it reflects strong demand in the manufacturing sector, while on the other, it indicates ongoing supply chain issues.

Overall, the May ISM report suggests that the US manufacturing sector is in a phase of sustainable, albeit uneven, recovery: demand and production are increasing, inflationary pressure persists, and the labor market remains relatively weak.

Reacting to this release, the EUR/USD pair hit a local low on Monday, dropping to 1.1607. However, sellers could not extend their success, and the trading day ended in the middle of the "working" range at 1.1633.

Moreover, on Tuesday, EUR/USD buyers seized the initiative following the release of Eurozone inflation data. The overall consumer price index has shown an upward trend for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 3.2% in May (the highest level since November 2023). The core CPI, excluding energy and food prices, accelerated more than expected, rising to 2.5% (with a forecast of 2.4%). This marks the strongest growth rate since April of last year.

The rise in core inflation is a particularly concerning signal for the European Central Bank. It indicates that price pressures are becoming broader and are no longer confined to the energy sector. This pressure has embedded itself within consumption structures through secondary effects—rising logistics costs are being passed on to final industrial goods and services. The acceleration of inflation in the services sector (to 3.5%) is especially worrisome, as this component reflects internal price pressure and wage dynamics.

Overall, the May results leave little room for the "dovish wing" of the ECB to argue for a softer stance (especially given the upward reversal in the core component). Some analysts (notably from JP Morgan) have already stated that Tuesday's release essentially guarantees a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the ECB at its meeting next week.

Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair has risen slightly but remains within the range of 1.1610–1.1670. Under the current circumstances, the pair will likely continue to test the boundaries of this price range, regardless of the significance of the published macroeconomic data. Traders are awaiting the resolution of US-Iran negotiations and are hesitant to open large positions (either in favor of the dollar or against it) amid ongoing uncertainty about the prospects of the diplomatic process. On one hand, Tehran has announced a halt to dialogue, citing the expansion of Israel's military operation in Lebanon. On the other hand, Trump has stated that he convinced Netanyahu to abandon plans to attack the southern suburbs of Beirut. According to the US President, a memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran could be signed as early as next week. According to Mehr news agency, Iran is still considering the draft agreement with the US.

Thus, the intrigue remains, making it prudent to implement a range trading strategy: opening short positions as the price approaches the upper boundary of the range (1.1670) and long positions as it declines to the lower boundary (1.1610).

Angered by Israel's attack on Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah is based, Tehran threatens not only to halt dialogue with the Americans but also to close the alternative oil supply route—the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The escalation of the conflict and new supply issues risk driving Brent prices higher, which is unwelcome not only for the US but also for Europe.

Dynamics of European Inflation

Consumer prices in the Eurozone accelerated in May from 3% to 3.2% due to higher crude oil prices, while core inflation surged to 2.5% and service prices rose to 3.5%. The European Central Bank's fears regarding second-order effects are coming to fruition, making a rate hike in June inevitable.

However, this factor is already priced into EUR/USD quotes, as well as another anticipated act of monetary tightening expected by the futures market. The main question is whether the already fragile Eurozone economy can withstand higher borrowing costs. Tightening monetary policy may not just be a blow but could turn into a political error for the ECB—similar to the one made before the 2008 global economic crisis, when the ECB raised rates and then had to cut them due to a recession.

Nevertheless, regardless of how weak the Eurozone economy may be and how high the risks of a political error by the ECB, EUR/USD will likely trend upwards in the event of a resolution to the Middle East conflict. In this scenario, the White House's mantra about the temporary nature of high inflation in the US will prove true. The Federal Reserve would have the opportunity to resume its cycle of loosening monetary policy, which would be a significant blow to the US dollar.

During the initial phase of peaceful conflict resolution in the Middle East, the greenback will likely suffer as a safe-haven currency. This scenario is the baseline, but far from the only one. The gulf in positions between the US and Iran does not eliminate the possibility of hostilities resuming. In this case, escalation, rising geopolitical tension, and worsening global risk appetite will serve as catalysts for a decline in the main currency pair.

Technically, a daily candle with a long lower shadow has formed on the EUR/USD chart. This indicates the bears' weakness, especially if the candle's body is not very large. This is not the current case; conservative traders should refrain from trading. For aggressive traders, it is possible to set a pending long position at the candle's high near 1.1665.

At the moment, it is difficult to believe in such a significant decline in the euro, but the first quarter of 2026 demonstrated that geopolitical developments can dramatically alter market trends.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic three-wave corrective structure to the upside. Following the completion of this structure, a new downward trend segment began to form, which logically should be impulsive in nature. If this assumption is correct, we can expect a five-wave structure within wave C of the higher degree, targeting levels below the 1.1400 level.

Are there sufficient fundamental reasons to expect such a strong appreciation of the US dollar? Not definitively. However, the market is gradually losing confidence in the prospect of a deal between the United States and Iran, which is providing support to sellers.

Positive News Emerged on Tuesday

EUR/USD gained 15 basis points during Tuesday's trading, while overall price action remained muted. The US session has not yet concluded, and this is typically the period when traders are most active. However, in recent weeks, strong movements in the currency market have become increasingly rare, and sustained trends have been virtually absent.

As illustrated in the chart above, the presumed wave 4 has continued to develop for two weeks. During that period, the euro has moved less than 100 points. Today, the Eurozone released an important and potentially market-moving inflation report for May, which could have increased demand for the euro. Instead, traders once again showed little interest in anything other than geopolitical developments.

According to the preliminary estimate, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index rose to 3.2% year-on-year in May. Core inflation increased to 2.5%, exceeding market expectations. Therefore, inflationary pressures in the Eurozone continue to accelerate despite signs of moderation in some countries, such as Germany.

This suggests that the European Central Bank is moving closer to resuming its monetary policy tightening cycle. This is not merely my own expectation. For example, Isabel Schnabel has repeatedly urged the ECB Governing Council to vote in favor of raising interest rates at its June meeting. In her view, inflation is becoming increasingly difficult to control, while the conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are likely to drive energy prices higher, leading to a renewed acceleration in inflation.

Consequently, the ECB should act now. However, while the ECB may be prepared to act, the market appears less convinced. Demand for the euro changed little on Tuesday, and EUR/USD remains closer to a renewed decline than to a sustained advance.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within the broader upward trend segment (shown in the lower chart) while, in the shorter term, continuing to develop a corrective structure.

At present, wave 5 may be forming as part of wave C. If the current wave count is correct, the entire wave C structure could ultimately extend well below the 1.1400 level. However, such a substantial decline would require strong support from geopolitical developments. Otherwise, the bearish wave sequence may become truncated and complete only slightly below the 1.1600 level.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the formation of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to develop with targets around 1.1352, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Once the A-B-C structure is completed, a new long-term bullish trend may begin to form.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
2. If you are uncertain about market conditions, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. Absolute certainty regarding future price direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

For the second consecutive week, EUR/USD has been attempting to reverse in favor of the euro and resume its upward movement in line with the bullish trend originating from Imbalance 13. However, at this point, it can be said that the bulls lack sufficient strength for a new advance. The technical picture clearly indicates that the reaction to the bullish imbalance has been weak and unconvincing, while the reaction to Bearish Imbalance 15 has been precise and well-defined.

Therefore, I believe the probability of a new bearish attack this week is considerably higher than the probability of renewed bullish activity. The bulls had an opportunity to take control, but they failed to capitalize on it.

Today, the Eurozone released an important inflation report for May, which fully matched traders' expectations. However, whether the figures matched forecasts is not the key issue. The renewed acceleration in consumer prices provides the European Central Bank with an opportunity to tighten monetary policy at its next meeting. Logically, bulls should have launched a fresh advance today, as the Federal Reserve is almost certainly focused on other issues in June rather than raising interest rates.

However, price action and market sentiment will continue to depend primarily on geopolitical developments. If Tehran and Washington ultimately sign a memorandum of understanding, extend the ceasefire, and make progress on nuclear negotiations, it will become much easier for bulls to regain control, and both the euro and the pound could resume their upward trends.

The problem is that the probability of such an optimistic scenario appears to be declining with each passing day.

Under current conditions, traders can only wait for either a reaction from Imbalance 13—the last bullish pattern within the current bullish impulse—or its invalidation. If the recent decline is viewed as a corrective pullback, it could reasonably conclude within Imbalance 13. However, without geopolitical support, bulls will struggle to launch a meaningful advance, which is exactly what the market has demonstrated over the past two weeks.

If the current movement is interpreted as the beginning of a new bearish trend, then traders should expect negotiations to fail and the conflict to intensify again. In that case, a sell signal has already formed within Bearish Imbalance 15.

It is worth emphasizing once again that virtually all of the US dollar's strength between January and March was driven by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and bulls dominated trading activity for more than a month.

At present, the likelihood of an agreement is declining once again. The market remains highly skeptical of any reports suggesting an imminent resolution of the conflict or a deal between Iran and the United States. More precisely, a deal will probably be signed eventually. However, "eventually" is not the timeframe required to support a strong advance in EUR/USD.

The overall technical picture remains relatively clear. The bullish trend remains intact, but it desperately needs support. Ideally, that support should come from geopolitics—a framework agreement between Iran and the United States followed by continued negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Without a positive news backdrop, a renewed advance in the euro appears unlikely.

The economic backdrop on Tuesday favored the bulls. As already noted, the May inflation report did not exceed expectations—which would have been even more supportive for the euro—but it still confirmed accelerating price growth. As a result, the ECB should now have fewer doubts regarding further policy tightening.

However, it appears that today's buying activity was driven more by Trump's latest statements than by the inflation data itself.

There are still numerous reasons for bulls to remain active in 2026, and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not significantly reduced them. Structurally and fundamentally, Trump's policies—which contributed to a substantial decline in the dollar last year—have not changed.

Over the coming months, the US dollar may periodically strengthen as investors seek safe-haven assets, but this factor requires continuous escalation in the Middle East to remain effective. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from market sentiment, but what will allow bears to maintain pressure over the longer term?

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone

• Germany – Services PMI (07:55 UTC).
• Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The June 3 economic calendar contains four scheduled releases, with the US reports being the most noteworthy. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The fundamental backdrop changed sharply three months ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered invalidated or completed.

Therefore, bulls may still resume their advance in the near term if geopolitical developments provide even modest support.

Traders previously had opportunities to open long positions based on signals from Imbalance 12 and the Order Block. The upward trend could resume toward this year's highs from Imbalance 13. However, it is now critical that bulls maintain control of the market.

For the euro to continue rising without significant obstacles, developments in the Middle East must move toward a sustainable peace. A breakdown in negotiations, rejection of a framework agreement by either side, or another ceasefire violation could strengthen bearish pressure.

A sell signal has already formed within Bearish Imbalance 15. If geopolitical conditions fail to improve this week, a decline toward 1.1500 will become increasingly likely. Nevertheless, Bullish Imbalance 13 continues to serve as a strong support zone.

GBP/USD declined into Bullish Imbalance 18, reacted to this pattern, formed a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern, and then returned to Bearish Imbalance 19. Since then, the pair has been trading within this pattern for two weeks without showing any intention of leaving it. No reaction has followed from Imbalance 19, which means the technical picture continues to support a bullish scenario. However, the pattern has not yet been invalidated.

Today, Donald Trump once again stated that a deal with Iran could be signed in the very near future, possibly as soon as next week, apparently overlooking the fact that two weeks ago the agreement was also expected to be signed "within a few days." The US president also appears to have disregarded statements coming from Tehran. Both yesterday and today, Iranian officials stated that negotiations with the United States had been suspended due to repeated violations of the ceasefire and renewed Israeli military actions against Lebanon.

Whether Iran will agree to resume negotiations remains unclear. Although Trump succeeded in persuading Israel not to launch a new offensive against Lebanon, it should be understood that this is far from the only obstacle preventing the signing of a memorandum with Iran. The demands of both sides—based on the limited information available through media reports—remain fundamentally different. Therefore, I have little confidence that a deal will be signed or that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened either next week or even within the next month.

Overall, the situation surrounding the Middle East conflict is gradually improving, but traders remain concerned that the next shift could once again be toward escalation. In fact, this pattern has repeated itself for the past two weeks. Last week, the United States launched two missile strikes against Iranian facilities, while Iran responded with strikes on US bases in Kuwait. A new week has begun, and the situation has repeated itself. One can only hope that negotiations will not collapse entirely and that the agreement—which reportedly has already been drafted and approved—will not be abandoned. Recently, however, news flow has been predominantly pessimistic, improving the outlook for the bears.

In my view, the broader trend remains bullish despite the pair's significant declines earlier this year. The ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile but is still in place and may be extended for another 60 days. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations relies largely on statements from Donald Trump, who continues to repeat the same message each week. Iran maintains a very different position.

The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. For now, the market still retains some confidence that an agreement will eventually be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited. Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz could, at the very least, complicate future negotiations.

From a technical perspective, the picture remains straightforward. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a valid price reaction, while Bearish Imbalance 19 is likely to be invalidated. Therefore, the technical structure continues to support further gains in the pound. The key task now is to monitor geopolitical developments closely so that long positions can be exited promptly if negotiations once again reach a deadlock and the framework agreement remains approved but unsigned.

The economic calendar on Tuesday was limited to the US JOLTS report, which the market largely ignored. We continue to see limited trader interest in economic data releases.

In the United States, the broader fundamental backdrop remains one that offers little support for sustained dollar appreciation in the long term. Even the conflict involving Iran has changed very little in that regard. Geopolitical developments temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the longer-term outlook for the US currency remains challenging.

The US labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving closer to recession, inflation is rising, and the Federal Reserve has little room to tighten monetary policy in 2026. In addition, several large-scale protests against Donald Trump have taken place across the country, while the eventual departure of Jerome Powell could further complicate the outlook for the dollar if the Federal Open Market Committee adopts a more dovish stance under a future chair such as Kevin Warsh.

From a purely economic perspective, I see little justification for sustained dollar strength. Geopolitical developments remain the primary factor capable of supporting the US currency.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

• United Kingdom – Services PMI (08:30 UTC).
• United States – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC).
• United States – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 3 contains three scheduled releases, two of which can be considered significant. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Wednesday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The Three Drives pattern signaled the beginning of the upward move, and since then three bullish patterns and three bullish trading signals have formed, all of which offered trading opportunities.

At present, bulls continue to hold the initiative and have generated a new bullish signal within Bullish Imbalance 18. If geopolitical developments become more favorable, the upward trend is likely to continue. My long-term target for the pound remains the 2026 high at 1.3867, while the nearest target stands at 1.3656.

At this stage, there are no grounds for considering a bearish trend. The only bearish imbalance is on the verge of invalidation, and no new bearish patterns have emerged.

Global financial markets are displaying cautious optimism amid signals of a possible diplomatic settlement of the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Investors are focused on a draft memorandum intended to enshrine guarantees for safe navigation and materially reduce geopolitical tension in one of the world's key transit arteries. Markets have already begun to respond to this news by gradually trimming the risk premium traditionally priced into energy assets.

A potential signing would open the door to the legalization of new contracts for Iranian hydrocarbons, which could materially alter the global supply-demand balance. For traders, that implies the prospect of a significant correction in benchmark crude prices if export barriers are actually removed. Market participants are watching diplomats' rhetoric closely, since any official confirmation of a deal would immediately affect commodity volatility and the currencies of oil-exporting countries. Follow the link for more details.

AI rally roars on: S&P 500 and Nasdaq shrug off Middle East uncertainty

US equity indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed last week on a high, supporting the momentum from record Asian markets. The main engine of the ongoing uptrend remains the high-technology sector tied to AI development and deployment. A large inflow of institutional capital into the AI industry is allowing Wall Street to show notable resilience, easily offsetting localized sell-offs in more traditional sectors.

Notably, this tech rally is advancing even as uncertainty persists around the Iran negotiation process. Investors are clearly choosing to focus on the long-term potential for corporate profits and innovation, relegating geopolitical risk to a secondary concern. That insensitivity to external shocks underscores the strength of the bull trend. In this environment, we recommend using InstaForex trading tools to benefit from price impulses in the technology sector. Follow the link for more details.

Due to low volatility, tests of the levels I identified did not occur. As a result, I ended the session without any trades.

The US trading session is expected to be more eventful, with the release of Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. However, it should be noted that markets may have already partially priced in the expected positive outcomes. Therefore, for a meaningful rise in the US dollar against the yen, actual data will need to exceed analyst forecasts. Otherwise, even strong figures may keep USD/JPY trading within a narrow sideways range near the psychological level of 160, a level from which the Bank of Japan has frequently intervened in currency markets recently. Just yesterday, senior officials from the Bank of Japan once again hinted at possible intervention.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 159.79 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 160.08 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.08, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move. Growth in the pair today is possible in the case of weak agreement-related news and strong US economic data.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 159.67 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. In this case, a move toward 159.79 and 160.08 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below the 159.67 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.43, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider opening long positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pair is expected to return in the case of weak economic reports.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 159.79 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. In this case, a decline toward 159.67 and 159.43 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further gains above this level are unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make trading decisions with extreme caution. Before important fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire account, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Due to low volatility, tests of the levels I identified did not occur. As a result, I ended the session without any trades.

Credit data in the United Kingdom had no impact on the pound, and few expected that the number of approved mortgage loans, even if it increased, would significantly support the currency under current conditions. However, these indicators are considered measures of healthy economic activity, so some positive impact on the national currency could have been expected.

Next, traders will focus on the release of important US macroeconomic data that may influence the dollar's exchange rate. The main event is the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This indicator, which reflects labor market conditions, serves as a barometer of business activity and may provide insight into future economic trends. The RCM Economic Optimism Index is also expected. This indicator, based on consumer surveys, reflects expectations regarding current and future economic conditions. Positive dynamics in this index may indicate rising consumer confidence, which in turn supports consumer spending and contributes to economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3481 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3524 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3524, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move. Growth in the pound today can be expected only if US data comes in weak.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if the price tests the 1.3458 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A move toward 1.3481 and 1.3524 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below the 1.3458 level (red line on the chart), which would trigger a sharp decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.3412, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider opening longs in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pound is expected to return if strong US data is released.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if the price tests 1.3481 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3458 and 1.3412 can then be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further upside above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or an area for manual profit-taking, as further downside below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper risk management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the 1.1643 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving below the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair failed to develop a significant downward move.

According to the latest data, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% in May, fully matching economists' forecasts. The fact that actual data met expectations indicates that the current economic environment remains largely predictable. However, this does not provide the European Central Bank with greater confidence in its current monetary policy stance, as it is becoming increasingly evident that policy adjustments are needed, potentially as soon as the next meeting.

Ahead of the US session, market participants will focus on key US macroeconomic releases that could influence the dollar's performance. The main event will be the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This indicator, which reflects labor market conditions, serves as a barometer of economic activity and may provide clues about future economic trends. In addition, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is scheduled for release. Based on consumer surveys, this indicator offers insight into perceptions of current and future economic conditions. An improvement in the index could signal rising consumer confidence, something the US economy has lacked recently amid a sharp increase in inflation.

As for intraday trading, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro buying opportunities may be considered around 1.1653 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1705. At 1.1705, I plan to exit long positions and consider opening short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Further gains in the euro can be expected today only if favorable news supports the market.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to move higher.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests the 1.1636 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a bullish reversal. In this case, a move toward 1.1653 and 1.1705 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the pair reaches 1.1636 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1594, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately consider opening long positions, targeting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair is likely to return today if strong US economic data is released.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to move lower.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests the 1.1653 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a bearish reversal. In this case, a decline toward 1.1636 and 1.1594 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – the suggested entry price for long positions;
• Thick green line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the suggested entry price for short positions;
• Thick red line – the estimated Take Profit level or an area where profits may be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is generally advisable to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, you can quickly lose your entire trading capital, especially when trading large position sizes without proper risk management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is generally a losing approach for intraday traders.

As the data showed, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.2% in May, fully matching market expectations and having no impact on the euro. Although this indicator is an important measure of inflationary pressure, it had already been priced in by market participants. The absence of surprises suggests that the currency pair is likely to continue trading within its current range, which is being determined by a broader combination of fundamental and technical factors.

During the US session, traders will focus on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, as well as the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index. While these macroeconomic indicators are not among the most important gauges of the US economy, they may influence market sentiment in the short term. The number of job openings reflects labor demand, while labor turnover data provides insight into workforce mobility and labor market participation. Positive dynamics in these indicators generally signal resilient economic growth and may support the US dollar.

The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index measures consumer and business sentiment regarding current and future economic conditions. Higher-than-expected readings, although unlikely, could point to stronger consumer activity and increased investor confidence, which would also be supportive of the US currency.

If the data comes in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1660 may lead to a rise toward 1.1680 and 1.1699;
• A breakout below 1.1645 may lead to a decline toward 1.1625 and 1.1585.

For GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3480 may lead to a rise toward 1.3510 and 1.3535;
• A breakout below 1.3445 may lead to a decline toward 1.3410 and 1.3370.

For USD/JPY

• A breakout above 159.80 may lead to a rise toward 159.99 and 160.12;
• A breakout below 159.60 may trigger a decline toward 159.40 and 159.20.

Mean Reversion Strategy for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1657 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1627 and a return to this level.

For GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3485 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3452 and a return to this level.

For AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 0.7199 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 0.7170 and a return to this level.

For USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.3858 and a return below this level;
• I will look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.3835 and a return to this level.

How much does a ticket through the Strait of Hormuz cost?

The direction of global financial markets last week was determined exclusively by geopolitical factors, completely eclipsing the AI story, macro data, and central bank rhetoric. A marked optimistic shift was recorded among investors. Market participants are actively pricing in a near-term diplomatic outcome to the three-month armed confrontation. The change in sentiment was driven by reports of a draft 60-day memorandum that would not only extend the current ceasefire but also lay the groundwork for full de-escalation.

The Strait of Hormuz is the key element of the compromise and has been the main source of nightmares for the global economy throughout the conflict. Under the draft, Tehran would fully lift restrictions on commercial shipping, clear the channel of underwater mines, and abandon the idea of charging transit fees. In return, Washington promises a phased rollback of its maritime blockade and an easing of sanctions on Iranian hydrocarbon exports — measures intended to remove the threat of a prolonged energy crisis.

Exactly three months have passed since the first strikes on targets in Iran, and the White House now reports that the parameters of a peace deal are largely agreed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth shared details of a recent closed meeting in which President Trump reportedly offered Tehran generous terms, threatening that, if Iran refuses, he would deploy the "guy on my left" — a remark that, by Hegseth's own admission, saw the minister suspected of leftist political views for the first time in his life. At the same time, the Pentagon chief stressed that the actual operational situation in the strait is fully controlled by US forces, contrary to any Iranian claims.

Hegseth confirmed that the US military is ready to resume combat immediately if Iran attempts to return to nuclear weapons development, while also noting constructive progress in talks. Speaking at the Asian security forum, the Pentagon chief praised Pakistan's mediation role, calling relations with Islamabad a genuine friendship. He also identified India as a critically important balancer in South Asia. He issued an official clarification declaring any separate shipowners' agreements with Tehran to pay transit fees unlawful, since any financial transfers to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remain strictly prohibited.

In response, Iranian legislators in the Majlis presidium announced they will soon adopt a sovereign law intended to legally cement Iran's total control over the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. The US defense establishment stands ready to resume massive strikes on Iranian territory if the current diplomatic round over Iran's nuclear dossier fails. Speaking on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the White House would withdraw from negotiations without hesitation if the Islamic Republic rejects tight limits on its nuclear program.

Referring to a recent direct conversation with Donald Trump, the minister conveyed the president's position: Washington wants exclusively a great deal that guarantees Iran has no nuclear weapons; otherwise, Tehran will have to deal with the Pentagon chief standing to the right of the American leader. Hegseth emphasized that US arsenals accumulated in the region and worldwide are more than sufficient to pursue a forceful scenario, and the tough statements followed an emergency meeting between Trump and security officials in the White House Situation Room. Meanwhile, the IRGC continues to demonstrate real operational control over the key maritime artery.

IRGC command officially reported the transit of 28 commercial vessels through the waters of the Strait of Hormuz, including:

• large-tonnage oil tankers
• container ships

All these vessels in the past 24 hours requested the appropriate permission from Iranian authorities and coordinated their routes with the IRGC Navy. Just days earlier, on May 28, a further 26 civilian vessels received the same green light from Tehran. Iranian military officials uncompromisingly declare that prior approval of transit parameters through the Strait of Hormuz is a mandatory rule, and any attempts to transit under alternative arrangements will be treated as deliberate security violations, prompting immediate forceful interception of offending vessels by the IRGC.

Is there a ceiling for oil?

The prevailing geopolitical stalemate has forced leading commodity market experts to radically revise their 2026 hydrocarbon price forecasts for the third time since the February strikes. According to a fresh May survey by Reuters of 33 prominent economists, the full restoration of disrupted energy flows will take many months. And while current prices have pulled back somewhat from the four-year extremes ($126.41 for Brent) recorded at the panic peak after the first airstrikes, they remain at levels painful for the global economy.

Institutes such as the EIU believe that absolute historical records from 2008 (~$147/bbl) are unlikely to be exceeded in 2026. Nevertheless, a moderate price rally is all but guaranteed at least through July while the Iranian conflict remains frozen in a fragile ceasefire with the Strait of Hormuz effectively sealed. Dry numbers from Kpler illustrate the scale of the shock:

• daily seaborne exports from the Middle East have fallen by more than half due to the crisis
• from pre-crisis 18.3 million barrels/day to a modest 8.8 million b/d recorded since March

Banking group NORD/LB notes that global trade will not return to pre-crisis logistical parameters before the end of 2026 even if a durable peace is signed, leaving the global economic system facing a structural supply shortfall in a colossal range of 0.5–8.0 million b/d. Such a sharp supply squeeze is occurring against an obvious cooling in global demand, driven by deteriorating macro indicators, downgrades to world GDP forecasts, and high resource costs.

In May, OPEC analysts revised their annual oil consumption growth estimate down to 1.17 million b/d (previously 1.38 million b/d). The US Department of Energy recorded a net demand decline of 420,000 b/d. To compensate for rapidly shrinking commercial stocks, seven key OPEC+ producer states may agree at their planned June 7 meeting to a symbolic production quota increase for July. However, UniCredit sensibly notes that any new quotas will likely remain paper-only. The key constraint is not cartel bureaucracy but the physical impossibility of pushing additional volumes through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, which would make any July exporter agreements purely declarative.

Can the Fed hide from inflation?

Fresh macro data recorded a sharp pick-up in PCE inflation for April to 3.8% year?on?year, the deepest price overheating since May 2023. Core PCE also hit a multi-month high at 3.3%, marking the strongest reading since October 2023. The Fed's principal inflation gauge now runs at nearly twice the regulator's 2% target, confirming the return of powerful price pressures. Against this backdrop, the head of the Kansas City Fed warned colleagues at a policy conference in Iceland not to indulge in dangerous illusions, urging them not to treat the current energy shock as transitory or benign.

Jeffrey Schmid stressed that monetary authorities must not relax now, and hinted at readiness to initiate a new tightening round — not only higher policy rates but also a more aggressive balance sheet reduction. Next month's FOMC meeting will most likely end with the policy rate held in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Yet investor sentiment has shifted dramatically:

• where consensus had previously firmly priced in easing later in the year,
• Wall Street must now seriously run scenarios with higher borrowing costs.

While some Fed officials still hope that inflation will fade naturally once the conflict that President Trump triggered with Iran ends, the real economy shows stubborn inertia. High gasoline prices continue to erode US consumers' purchasing power, while domestic oil and gas firms resolutely refuse to ramp up production. Jeffrey Schmid noted that, in private consultations with energy-sector CEOs, he observed extreme caution and tight capital-management discipline.

Business is unwilling to invest in new drilling under severe price uncertainty, despite resilient growth elsewhere in the economy and a balanced labor market amid the AI transformation. At the same time, the White House suffered a powerful domestic political blow. New YouGov polling shows that President Trump's approval rating has plunged to a historic low. Financial markets continue to react feverishly to Middle East geopolitical swings, exhibiting highly unstable dynamics.

The main anomaly last week was the dollar's paradoxical behavior. The US dollar showed surprising resilience to external shocks, ignoring traditional down-triggers such as falling oil prices and hopes for a near-term US-Iran framework deal. Equally, it failed to mount a sustained rally, held back by lingering uncertainty over the final terms of any agreement.

June 1

June 1, 02:50 / Japan / ***/ Capital Expenditure, Q1 / prev.: 2.9% / actual: 6.5% / forecast: 4.1% / USD/JPY – up

Japanese companies significantly increased capital spending by the end of Q4 last year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of solid growth. The main investment impulse came from the non-manufacturing sector, driven by construction and real estate. In manufacturing, momentum stalled due to weaknesses in machinery and IT. The Q1 report projects a moderate slowdown in investment growth. If the actual data match the forecast, this will signal a decline in corporate spending and lead to yen weakness.

June 1, 03:30 / Japan / ***/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 55.1 / forecast: 54.4 / USD/JPY – up

Japan's manufacturing PMI in May eased slightly from April's multi-year high but remained in expansionary territory. Output growth was partly supported by precautionary stock building amid the Middle East conflict, despite some slowdown in new domestic orders. The mounting raw material deficit triggered:

• higher costs
• forced increases in selling prices

The final May report is expected to show the index close to forecast levels. Confirmation of this scenario would validate the resilience of the industrial sector and weigh on the yen.

June 1, 04:45 / China / ***/ Markit Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.8 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.4 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

China's manufacturing activity showed record growth in April after a sharp surge in new orders. Logistics bottlenecks and raw material shortages linked to Middle East tensions remained a constraint, pushing purchasing and producer prices to multi-year highs. The May report is forecast to show a slowdown. If the final data confirm the forecast, this will signal cooling of the manufacturing boom, pressuring Brent prices lower and weakening the yuan.

June 1 / Germany / **/ Retail Sales, April / prev.: 0.7% / actual: -2.0% / forecast: -1.4% / EUR/USD – up

German retail sales fell by 2.0% year-on-year in March, well below long-term averages. The current contraction in retail turnover confirms weak domestic consumer demand amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The April report is expected to show a moderation in the decline. Confirmation of the forecast would indicate attempts at stabilization in retail and support the euro.

June 1, 09:00 / Russia / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final) / prev.: 48.3 / actual: 48.1 / forecast: 48.2 / USD/RUB – down

In April, Russia's manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.1, marking the 11th consecutive month of contraction. The negative trend was driven by:

• falling output
• the fastest decline in employment in four years
• compression of export orders

Logistics costs rose sharply, forcing firms to pass on costs to end customers, although overall business confidence reached a multi-month high. The final May report is expected to show a slight rebound to 48.2. If confirmed, this would indicate stabilization efforts and strengthen the rouble.

June 1, 09:00 / United Kingdom / **/ House Prices, May / prev.: 2.2% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 2.9% / GBP/USD – down

Annual house price growth in the UK accelerated to 3.0% in April, hitting a multi-month high despite high interest rates and geopolitical tensions. The sector showed surprising resilience even as consumer confidence fell and the monthly price gain momentum slowed. The May report is forecast to show a modest slowdown to 2.9%. Confirmation would signal stabilization of housing demand and weigh on the pound.

June 1, 10:55 / Germany / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 52.2 / actual: 51.4 / forecast: 49.9 / EUR/USD – up

Preliminary estimates show Germany's manufacturing PMI falling below the neutral 50 mark to 49.9 in May, entering contraction. The decline reflects:

• waning effect of precautionary inventory accumulation
• a drop in new orders amid consumer uncertainty
• accelerated job losses amid rising logistics and energy costs

The final May report is forecast to confirm the index at 49.9. If realized, this will mark an official cooling of Europe's largest industrial economy and bolster the euro.

June 1, 11:00 / Eurozone / ***/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 51.6 / actual: 52.2 / forecast: 51.4 / EUR/USD – down

The eurozone manufacturing PMI preliminary reading for May slipped to 51.4, recording the slowest expansion in three months. The slowdown in the private sector was driven by:

• a fall in new orders
• weaker demand for stockbuilding linked to the Middle East crisis

This was accompanied by job declines and sharp increases in selling prices. The final May report is expected to hold at 51.4. Confirmation would signal a deceleration of industrial momentum and weaken the euro.

June 1, 11:30 / United Kingdom / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 51.0 / actual: 53.7 / forecast: 53.7 / GBP/USD – volatile

Preliminaries indicate the UK's final manufacturing PMI for May held steady and beat initial expectations. Production acceleration was supported by precautionary buying and strong demand from the data center sector, despite logistics disruptions, job declines, and high inflationary pressure. The May release is forecast to confirm the 53.7 reading. Given ongoing structural risks, sterling is likely to remain volatile.

June 1, 16:30 / Canada / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.0 / actual: 53.3 / forecast: 52.0 / USD/CAD – up

Canada's manufacturing PMI showed a sharp improvement, the strongest in recent years, driven by a surge in new orders and exports as firms stockpiled amid Middle East tensions and higher transport costs. Corporate optimism reached a multi-month high. If the final data confirm a slowdown, the Canadian dollar will weaken.

June 1, 16:45 / United States / **/ S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 52.3 / actual: 54.5 / forecast: 55.3 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – up

Preliminary S&P Global data show US manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace since spring 2022. The upturn was accompanied by:

• active job creation
• precautionary stockpiling of raw materials

Despite some slowdown in new orders and longer delivery times, the final May report is forecast to confirm a high 55.3 reading. If realized, this will underscore the industrial upswing and strengthen the dollar.

June 1, 17:00 / United States / ***/ ISM Manufacturing PMI, May / prev.: 52.7 / actual: 52.7 / forecast: 52.6 / USDX – down

The ISM manufacturing PMI for the US remained at a local high last period. Internal components show mixed dynamics: faster new orders and a sharp rise in selling prices due to higher fuel costs were offset by:

• falling employment
• slower output expansion

The May release is forecast to slip slightly to 52.6. If so, this will signal cooling business optimism in the sector and weaken the dollar.

June 1, 17:00 / United States / **/ ISM Employment Index, May / prev.: 48.7 / actual: 46.4 / forecast: 46.6 / USDX – up

The ISM manufacturing employment index fell to 46.4, marking the 15th consecutive month of contraction. While the US labor market remains broadly resilient, this indicator points to a cautious hiring stance among manufacturers. The May report is expected to show a modest recovery; confirmation will support dollar strength.

June 2

June 2, 04:30 / Australia / **/ Building Approvals, April / prev.: 16.1% / actual: 9.0% / forecast: 12.9% / AUD/USD – up

Australia's building approvals rose 9.0% year-on-year in March, slowing from February's strong spike but remaining above long-term averages. The April report is expected to show an acceleration in approved projects. Confirmation will signal fresh investment in housing and lift the Australian dollar.

June 2, 12:00 / Eurozone / ***/ Headline Consumer Inflation, May (prelim.) / prev.: 2.6% / actual: 3.0% / forecast: 3.3% / EUR/USD – up

Preliminaries indicate eurozone annual inflation rose to 3.0% in April, a multi-month high driven by a sharp jump in energy prices amid the geopolitical shock. Price pressure hit most major economies in the bloc, including:

• Germany
• France
• Italy

Core inflation edged down slightly. The preliminary May reading is expected to show further acceleration. Confirmation will underline persistent inflation risks and strengthen the euro.

June 2, 17:00 / United States / ***/ Job Openings, April / prev.: 6.922m / actual: 6.866m / forecast: 6.870m / USDX – up

US job openings fell modestly to 6.866m in March, reflecting mixed sector dynamics — weakness in business services offset by gains in finance. Overall hiring flows remained steady amid stable layoffs. The April report is expected near forecast levels. Confirmation will signal labor market balance and support the dollar.

June 2, 17:00 / United States / **/ Job Cuts, April / prev.: 3.046m / actual: 3.171m / forecast: 3.100m / USDX – up

US voluntary quits rose to 3.171m in March, lifting the quits rate to 2.0% of employment. Broad increases across regions indicate high worker confidence in finding new jobs, notably in healthcare and hospitality. The April report is expected to ease; confirmation will point to a stable labor market structure and bolster the dollar.

June 2, 23:30 / United States / **/ API Crude Inventories / prev.: -9.1m bbl / actual: -2.8m bbl / forecast: – / Brent – volatile

The American Petroleum Institute reported a 2.8 million-barrel weekly decline in US commercial crude stocks, alongside continued releases from strategic reserves. Gasoline inventories fell, and crude flowed out of the Cushing hub, while distillate stocks rose modestly. With no clear consensus forecast, a structural tightness in oil and fuel supplies will keep Brent volatile.

June 3

June 3, 01:45 / New Zealand / **/ Terms of Trade Index, Q1 / prev.: -2.1% / actual: 3.7% / forecast: – / NZD/USD – volatile

New Zealand's terms of trade index rebounded 3.7% in Q1, exiting negative territory. The increase reflects export prices outpacing imports, improving exporters' competitive positions. No forecast is provided for the current period; the release could generate high NZD volatility.

June 3, 02:00 / Australia / **/ AIG Manufacturing Index, May / prev.: 34.2 / actual: -24.4 / forecast: -24.0 / AUD/USD – up

Australia's manufacturing PMI rose to -24.4 in April, still deep in contraction. Despite local improvements in sales, employment, and new orders, firms faced sharply higher costs from fuel surcharges and ongoing structural labor shortages. The May report is expected to show slight improvement; confirmation will point to gradual industrial recovery and strengthen the AUD.

June 3, 02:00 / Australia / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 46.3 / actual: 50.7 / forecast: 47.7 / AUD/USD – down

Preliminaries show Australia's services PMI returned to contraction in May, easing to 47.7 amid Middle East tensions. Weakening demand cut new orders and prompted fresh job cuts amid rising price pressures. The final May release is forecast to confirm 47.7. Confirmation will signal deterioration in services and weaken the AUD.

June 3, 04:30 / Australia / ***/ GDP, Q1 / prev.: 2.1% / actual: 2.6% / forecast: 2.7% / AUD/USD – up

Australia's economy expanded 2.6% year-on-year in the previous period, a multi-month high driven by strong domestic activity. Q1 GDP is forecast to rise to 2.7%. Confirmation will validate the cyclical upswing and support the AUD.

June 3, 04:45 / China / ***/ Markit Services PMI / prev.: 52.1 / actual: 52.6 / forecast: 52.3 / Brent – down, USD/CNY – up

China's services PMI rose to 52.6 in April, supported by resilient domestic demand for the 40th consecutive month.

• External sales showed a modest decline.
• Cost-push inflation accelerated to the year's high due to higher oil prices.

The May report is expected to show a slight slowdown. Confirmation will cool Brent and weaken the yuan.

June 3, 09:00 / Russia / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 49.5 / actual: 49.7 / forecast: 49.5 / USD/RUB – up

Russia's services PMI in April edged up to 49.7 but remained in contraction for a second month. Falling new orders amid clients' financial strain forced firms to cut jobs as VAT hikes raised costs, pushing business sentiment to multi-year lows. The final May release is expected to hold at 49.5. Confirmation will signal stagnation in the sector and weaken the rouble.

June 3, 10:55 / Germany / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.9 / actual: 46.9 / forecast: 47.8 / EUR/USD – up

Preliminaries indicate Germany's services PMI showed modest improvement but remained in contraction for a second month as demand softened and new orders fell amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflationary pressure. Firms faced a spike in costs and accelerated job cuts. The final May report is forecast to confirm 47.8. Confirmation will support the euro.

June 3, 11:00 / Eurozone / ***/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 50.2 / actual: 47.6 / forecast: 46.4 / EUR/USD – down

Preliminaries recorded a sharp drop in the eurozone services PMI in May — the largest setback for the sector in years. Price pressures linked to the Iran conflict drove:

• fewer new orders
• weaker purchasing power
• a fall in backlogs

Firms continued headcount reductions, and business expectations deteriorated. The final report is forecast to confirm contraction. Confirmation will weaken the euro.

June 3, 11:30 / United Kingdom / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final) / prev.: 50.5 / actual: 52.7 / forecast: 47.9 / GBP/USD – down

Preliminary data show the UK's services PMI plunged into contraction in May, hitting a multi-year low as demand and new orders fell amid geopolitical and domestic political uncertainty. The drop hit sectors tied to international travel hardest. Firms accelerated job cuts amid rising:

• fuel costs
• wage pressures

The final report is forecast to confirm a 47.9 reading. If realized, this will confirm the economic cooling and weaken the pound.

June 3, 12:00 / Eurozone / ***/ Producer Price Inflation, April / prev.: -3.0% / actual: 2.1% / forecast: 4.8% / EUR/USD – up

Eurozone producer prices returned to positive territory in March, rising 2.1% year-on-year after previous deflationary periods. Wholesale price dynamics are approaching long-term strategic averages seen over recent decades. The April report is forecast to show further acceleration. Confirmation will increase inflationary pressure at the production level and strengthen the euro.

June 3, 15:15 / United States / **/ ADP Private Sector Employment, May / prev.: 61k / actual: 109k / forecast: 116k / USDX – up

ADP data shows private sector employment rose 109k in April, a multi-month high. Services — notably education and healthcare — drove gains, while manufacturing expanded moderately due to construction. The May report is expected to show further improvement. Confirmation will reinforce the resilience of the US labor market and support the dollar.

June 3, 16:45 / United States / ***/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 49.8 / actual: 51.0 / forecast: 50.9 / USDX – down

US services PMI showed moderate expansion in May, supported by modest growth in domestic orders, while export demand fell sharply amid the Middle East conflict. Firms cut jobs as input and logistics costs hit record highs. The next release is forecast to show a slight dip; confirmation will signal cooling in services activity and weaken the dollar.

June 3, 16:00 / Canada / **/ S&P Global Services PMI, May (final data) / prev.: 47.2 / actual: 49.2 / forecast: 49.6 / USD/CAD – down

Canada's services activity recovered toward the neutral mark, with new orders supporting the first increase in employment in a long time. High cost-push inflation remains, forcing firms to pass on higher costs to consumers. The May report is expected to show further improvement. Confirmation will bolster the Canadian dollar.

June 3, 17:00 / United States / ***/ ISM Non?Manufacturing PMI, May / prev.: 54.0 / actual: 53.6 / forecast: 53.8 / USDX – up

The ISM non-manufacturing PMI edged down but stayed in clear expansion. Current output was sustained by the fulfilment of backlogs even as new orders slowed. Tariffs and geopolitical shocks pushed up prices for:

• raw materials
• fuel
• metals

The May release is forecast to show a partial recovery. Confirmation will indicate continued strength in services and support the dollar.

June 3, 17:30 / United States / **/ EIA Crude Inventories / prev.: -7.863m bbl / actual: -3.327m bbl / forecast: -6.013m bbl / Brent – up

US commercial crude stocks fell less than expected. However, inventories at the Cushing hub registered a multi-month drawdown amid increased refinery activity. Gasoline and distillate stocks showed a sharp decline, pointing to strong domestic demand. Analysts expect a larger drawdown next period. Confirmation will deepen the supply deficit and push Brent higher.

June 3, 21:00 / United States / ***/ Beige Book / interest rate – 3.75% / USDX – volatile

The Fed's Beige Book reflects persistent uncertainty over the policy path. Internal divisions are emerging: some officials favor tightening as inflation remains above target, while others call for rate cuts if labor conditions deteriorate. With no clear guidance, monetary policy uncertainty will keep dollar volatility high.

June 1, 03:30 / United States / Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell / USDX

June 2, 03:00 / Australia / Speech by Deputy Governor of the RBA, Ian Harper / AUD/USD

June 2, 08:50 / United States / Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari / USDX

June 2, 15:30 / United States / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester / USDX

June 2, 16:35 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic / EUR/USD

June 2, 18:00 / United Kingdom / Speech by Megan Greene of the Bank of England MPC / GBP/USD

June 2, 19:00 / Canada / Speech by Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers / USD/CAD

June 3, 11:30 / Japan / Speech by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda / USD/JPY

June 3, 12:50 / Eurozone / Speech by ECB Supervisory Board member Frank Elderson / EUR/USD

June 3, 16:00 / United States / Speech by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr / USDX

Speeches by senior central bank officials are also scheduled over the period. Their comments typically cause FX volatility, as they may signal future policy intentions.

The economic calendar is available via the link. All figures are year-on-year (y/y). Where data is monthly, it is noted as m/m. Trade balance, exports, and imports are shown in the country's currency. The asterisk * shows (by increasing importance) the degree of relevance for instruments available on the InstaForex platform. Publication times are given in Moscow time (GMT+3:00). Open a trading account here. See also market video news from the InstaForex Group. To keep tools at hand, download the MobileTrader app.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains relatively straightforward. The latest completed upward wave broke above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Therefore, the trend has shifted to bullish. Bulls will be able to extend the advance only if Iran and the United States reach an interim agreement, cease violating the terms of the ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened in the near future.

Monday's news flow was remarkable. All economic reports favored the bears, and geopolitical developments also supported the US dollar. Iran announced yesterday that it was withdrawing from negotiations with the United States after Israel resumed attacks on Lebanon, as a ceasefire in Lebanon had been one of the conditions for peace talks. Following this news, bears immediately regained confidence and stepped up selling pressure.

However, the situation changed quickly. Early this morning, Donald Trump reported that he had held overnight talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and persuaded Israel not to deploy any forces to Beirut. Yesterday, traders rushed to buy the US dollar; today, they are rushing to sell it. The geopolitical backdrop is now changing not only daily but several times a day.

Economic data released yesterday provided clearer signals, although it is doubtful that the market paid much attention to them. The US Manufacturing PMI came in at 54 points versus market expectations of 53, while the Eurozone unemployment rate failed to decline to 6.2% as traders had anticipated. Therefore, the economic backdrop supported the US dollar yesterday, but it was not the primary reason behind the pair's decline.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% retracement level at 1.1667. Market participants remain cautious about opening new positions and drawing conclusions. Under current conditions, I recommend placing greater emphasis on the hourly chart, as price movements have remained relatively limited in recent weeks. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, institutional traders closed 10,196 Long positions and 6,109 Short positions. Over seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict involving Iran. Over the past nine weeks, the situation has gradually stabilized amid a pause in hostilities in the Middle East. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 223,000, compared with 193,000 Short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

From a longer-term perspective, major market participants continue to show strong interest in the euro. Naturally, global developments of various kinds—which have been abundant in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. In particular, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has been paused rather than fully resolved. As a result, the performance of the euro and the US dollar in the near term will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy and economic data, and more on developments in Iran.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC).
• United States – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 2 includes two events that can both be considered noteworthy. Economic data may influence market sentiment on Tuesday, although the impact is unlikely to be substantial.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions could be considered following a rebound from the 1.1682 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1630 and 1.1578. The first target has already been reached. New short positions may be considered on another rejection from 1.1682. Long positions could be opened following a close above 1.1630, with targets at 1.1682 and 1.1745. These positions may still be held today.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficient positive geopolitical developments to launch a sustained advance. The latest completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave failed to break below the previous low. Geopolitical developments have recently provided support for bulls; however, the prospects for reaching an agreement between Iran and the United States are once again fading. The bearish trend can be considered complete only after a break above the May 25 high.

Monday's news flow once again put pressure on both bulls and bears. Before bears had time to fully react to the positive ISM Manufacturing PMI report from the United States or Tehran's statement regarding the suspension of negotiations with Washington and the possibility of blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Donald Trump announced that the war between Lebanon and Israel was being called off, signaling a willingness to continue negotiations with Tehran. In my view, Trump made concessions because a renewed war would represent an extreme scenario for the White House—one that it is trying to avoid at all costs. As a result, the British pound plunged at a rapid pace yesterday, while today the US dollar is declining just as quickly. The geopolitical backdrop continues to shift several times a day, forcing traders to alternate between buying and selling without a clear medium-term strategy. At present, trading decisions depend almost entirely on geopolitical developments, which can change within a matter of hours. The pair may rise today, but Tehran could issue another statement announcing the suspension of negotiations. If that happens, the dollar is likely to strengthen again. Under current conditions, making forecasts beyond the next few hours is simply too risky.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD has returned to the resistance level at 1.3482–1.3514. Another rebound from this area would once again favor the US dollar and lead to a moderate decline toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements in the near term will depend primarily on geopolitical developments rather than technical analysis. Technical analysis should be viewed only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became slightly less bearish during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 10,097, while the number of Short positions declined by 13,006. The gap between Long and Short positions currently stands at approximately 58,000 versus 119,000. Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which is hardly surprising given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bearish advantage currently exceeds a two-to-one ratio.

I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but in the near term everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market had adjusted to the expectation of a prolonged conflict. However, recent developments suggest that a ceasefire may still be achievable, although the process is unlikely to be quick or straightforward.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – JOLTS Job Openings (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 2 contains only one event that can be considered of moderate importance. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Short positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3454–1.3466 resistance level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Long positions were possible following a rebound from 1.3408, targeting 1.3454–1.3466. The target has been reached. New long positions may be considered after a close above the 1.3454–1.3466 level, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Gold (XAU/USD) is posting solid intraday gains during the early European session on Wednesday, approaching overnight highs and reaching the area around $4,540 over the past hour. The partial de-escalation of the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel has eased concerns about a broader regional confrontation, weakening demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset and supporting precious metal prices. At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding negotiations between the United States and Iran, together with inflation risks and expectations of further interest rate hikes, may limit downward pressure on the dollar, thereby restraining further gains in gold.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump announced on social media that Israel had agreed to withdraw forces that were preparing operations in Beirut and nearby areas under Hezbollah's control. In addition, through intermediaries, Trump established contact with the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah and received assurances that it would refrain from attacks against Israel. This limited de-escalation has reduced support for the US dollar's earlier gains. However, conflicting statements regarding the progress of US-Iran negotiations aimed at ending the three-month conflict continue to support demand for gold. Iran warned that it may suspend negotiations following new strikes and Israeli military activity in Lebanon. At the same time, Trump stated that dialogue remains ongoing and noted the possibility of reaching an agreement to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as early as next week.

Investors remain cautious and prefer to wait for clearer signals regarding progress in US-Iran negotiations. Meanwhile, expectations that higher energy prices could force major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance are limiting the upside potential for non-yielding gold.

Today, traders may prefer to wait for the release of the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data during the North American session, as it could provide short-term market direction. Nevertheless, the key event of the week remains the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could significantly influence the performance of the US dollar.

In addition, further developments in the Middle East could increase volatility across global financial markets and create new trading opportunities for gold. Overall, the fundamental backdrop remains mixed. According to the latest data, the US dollar continues to strengthen against major currencies, particularly against the Japanese yen.

From a technical perspective, gold remains within a descending parallel channel and is attempting to break above the 14-day EMA. However, bulls still face two additional obstacles before gaining control of the market: the 20-day and 50-day SMAs. As long as oscillators remain in negative territory, bullish momentum is likely to remain limited. At the same time, with prices continuing to trade above the 200-day SMA, it is still premature to discuss any significant long-term downside risks.

US equity indices dynamics

Greed remains in charge of the equity market. Goldman Sachs notes that hedge funds are buying equities at the fastest pace in six months, impressed by the S&P 500's nine-week rally — the longest since 2023.

At the base of the move is robust demand for chipmakers. According to Goldman Sachs, the riskiest corners of the tech sector rose by 27% in May and by 57% year-to-date. Their divergence from broad indices over the past month is the largest since November 2020.

Risky mega-cap tech and sector favorites dynamics

BNP Paribas warns that the S&P 500 may be approaching a point where optimism about AI's long-term economic benefits runs into a wall of higher Treasury yields, higher inflation, and slowing GDP growth.

So far, that collision has not occurred. The US manufacturing PMI reached 54 in May — the highest in four years — and has been in expansion for five consecutive months, signaling strength in the sector and the US economy overall. The price component eased in May versus April, supporting the White House's narrative that the recent inflation spike is temporary.

If Trump's nominee Kevin Warsh convinces his FOMC colleagues of that view, the Fed could cut the funds rate this year. Rumors of easier monetary policy would be a tailwind for the broad market index.

Nothing lasts forever. The S&P 500 rally cannot run indefinitely. Sooner or later, equities will correct. The question is whether that pullback will resemble a bursting bubble or simply be another buy-the-dip opportunity for the crowd. For now, the balance favors bulls, driven by FOMO, or fear of missing out.

Technically, the daily chart shows the uptrend accelerating, visible in the widening gap between prices and dynamic support levels such as moving averages. Bears' attempt to exploit a doji and form a reversal pattern failed, which indicates buyer resilience and increases the probability of reaching the previously stated long target of 7,700 for the broad index.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that outflows continue, as evidenced by last week, which became yet another black page in the history of spot cryptocurrency ETFs.

Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $1.42 billion, only worse than in January. Ethereum lost $241.5 million, continuing its exhausting streak of red days. On the opposite end, HYPE, XRP, and a little of everything else showed gains. Inflows into HYPE ETFs totaled $25.6 million—the best result among altcoins this week. XRP attracted $15.2 million, LINK—$2 million, SOL—$2.4 million, while HBAR saw a symbolic $250,000. LTC, DOGE, AVAX, and DOT experienced zero flows. Summing up all inflows for altcoins amounts to about $45 million—just over 3% of what left Bitcoin ETFs simultaneously. It cannot be said that capital is shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins; money is simply leaving the market.

The weekly statistics form a cohesive and troubling picture. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have persisted for 10 consecutive days. CryptoQuant warns that the bear market may persist until the beginning of 2027—true capitulation, marking the bottom of the cycle, has yet to occur. Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in three and a half years last week—even if it was a symbolic 32 coins, the fact is documented with the SEC and cannot be changed. The US government continues to quietly sell the confiscated assets from FTX. The CLARITY Act risks moving to July due to the overloaded Congressional schedule. The number of buyers is decreasing while sellers are increasing, and there is currently no catalyst for a turnaround on the horizon.

As for intraday trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the price reaches around $70,600, targeting a rise to $71,600. At $71,600, I will exit my positions and immediately sell on the return, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level. It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $69,900 if there is no market reaction to breach it back up towards $70,600 and $71,600.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching the entry point around $69,900, targeting a drop to $68,800. At $68,800, I will exit my sell trades and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25-pip move back to the level. Sellers will return at any moment; we just need a hint from the central bank. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $70,600 if there is no market reaction to breach it back down toward $69,900 and $68,800.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1988, targeting a rise to $2016. At $2016, I will exit my buy trades and immediately sell on the return. Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: I can also buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $1973 if there is no market reaction to breach it back down towards $1988 and $2016.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when the price reaches around $1973, targeting a drop to $1954. At $1954, I will exit my sell trades and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25-pip move back to the level. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: I can also sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $1988 if there is no market reaction to breach it back down towards $1973 and $1954.

The underlying mechanics are well known: when oil prices rise, inflation expectations strengthen, interest rates rise, and gold prices fall—and vice versa. It is now evident that gold will continue to fluctuate in this manner, influenced by the interplay of "inflation – interest rates – yields – dollar." This is why the metal, traditionally considered a safe haven during crises, has lost about 14% of its value since the war began.

The diplomatic backdrop still lacks clarity. Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are proceeding "at a rapid pace," contradicting yesterday's threats from Tehran to halt diplomacy and completely close the strait. However, on the same day, Trump and Netanyahu presented fundamentally different accounts of a phone conversation about the situation in Lebanon, further illustrating how muddled the negotiation landscape remains. It is worth noting that Trump has yet to approve the 60-day ceasefire agreement.

The Lebanese issue is becoming an increasingly serious obstacle to overall resolution. Iran insists that the cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel must be part of any final deal, whereas Washington and Tel Aviv view these two tracks as separate. This divergence creates a situation in which progress on the Hormuz Strait does not necessarily lead to progress on the broader resolution.

It should be noted that the current cycle of negotiations has lasted for several weeks, and the market is beginning to lose patience. Each time a promising headline appears, it is followed by either a new strike, a denial from Tehran, or silence from Washington. Trump is pressuring for acceleration—partly due to domestic political pressures ahead of the midterm elections in November, where high gasoline prices could cost Republicans dearly. However, this pressure may force him to accept an agreement that proves to be insufficiently tough on the nuclear issue—leading to renewed opposition from Republican hawks. This political stalemate does not have an obvious resolution at present.

Silver is up 2.2% today, reaching $76.51, notably outperforming gold. Platinum and palladium are also in positive territory.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $4,546. This will allow them to target $4,607, a level that will be quite challenging to break above. The farthest target will be around $4,656. In the event of a decline, bears will aim to take control at $4,481. If successful, breaking this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, sending gold down to a low of $4,432 with the prospect of falling to $4,372.

The main new element is the threat of an expanded blockade. The Iranian agency "Tasnim" reported that Tehran and its regional allies have put on the agenda the issue of completely closing not only the Strait of Hormuz but also the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea—a key alternative for exporting oil bypassing the Persian Gulf. If this happens, the global oil market will find itself in a fundamentally different situation: two of the three largest transit hubs for exporting energy resources from the Middle East will be simultaneously blocked. The third remains the pipeline through Saudi Arabia, but its capacity is insufficient to offset losses of this magnitude.

The Lebanese track is turning into an independent hotspot of tension. Trump and Netanyahu presented fundamentally different versions of a phone conversation regarding military actions in Lebanon, while the Lebanese side insists on extending the ceasefire with Hezbollah to the entire territory of the country. Iran, in turn, demands that the Lebanese issue be included in the overall settlement framework—and this disagreement is what blocks progress on the Hormuz track. Further negotiations related to Lebanon are scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Trump provided the most specific timeline for negotiations to date: in an interview with ABC News, he stated that a memorandum of understanding with Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz could be concluded within the next week. He immediately added that several points still need to be "agreed upon." He has yet to sign the agreement for a 60-day ceasefire. Visible commercial shipping through the strait remains severely limited—tracking system data does not confirm Iranian claims of normal traffic.

The situation in the oil market remains extremely unstable. As long as the strait is closed, negotiations continue with conflicting signals, and the threat from Bab-el-Mandeb looms, the market cannot establish a consistent position in either direction. Volatility is the only constant in this story.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $92.50. This will allow targeting $100.40, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest goal will be around $106.80. In case of a decline, bears will try to take control at $86.50. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions, driving oil down to a low of $81.40, with the prospect of dropping to $74.85.

Markets showed characteristic resilience. Intraday weakness was quickly bought, and the MSCI All Country World index returned to record highs, adding 0.1% after an early-session drop of 0.2%. Asian bourses followed the same pattern: after an initial 1% decline, they recovered by 0.3%. South Korea's KOSPI recouped all losses, and Tencent jumped 8.8%. The S&P 500 closed higher for the eighth consecutive day, marking the longest winning streak since May 2025.

The main engines remain the same: semiconductors and AI. The chip sector is the best performer in the S&P 500 by a wide margin. Geopolitics has not gone away. The market has simply learned to absorb it.

Brent pulled back to around $94 after Monday's rally. Conflicting accounts of a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu on the situation in Lebanon fuelled price swings. Iran denied reports that a deal was imminent and said it would act through its proxies. Trump has not yet signed off on a 60-day ceasefire agreement. While the situation is not critical, after such an extended rally, the market is highly sensitive to any headline that could re-ignite the chain "oil - inflation - yields."

Gold climbed by roughly 1% to $4,523/oz. The metal is recovering from recent losses amid ongoing uncertainty. 10-year JGB yields fell after a successful auction. Steady demand shows that investors are still attracted to high yields even amid Middle East turbulence. The yen is trading near 159.70 per dollar. Finance Minister Katayama indicated that authorities are ready to intervene if needed. The main event this week is Friday's US jobs report for May. The market is watching closely: the data will show how the economy is coping with inflationary pressure and how new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh might prioritize the central bank's dual mandate.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,607. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,639. Maintaining control above $7,659 would further cement buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers must defend the $7,574 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,547 and open the way to $7,518.

The test of the price level at 159.51 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 25 pips.

Yesterday's news that Iran has suspended negotiations with the US due to violations of the ceasefire led to a rise in the US dollar. Markets, spooked by yet another escalation of regional tensions, sought refuge in traditionally safer assets, and the dollar was at the forefront of this move, as always. However, the bullish momentum in the USD/JPY pair slowed down as we quickly approached the psychological level of 160 yen, where the Bank of Japan frequently intervenes to strengthen the yen. Therefore, be extremely cautious with long positions at the current levels.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches around 159.79 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 160.08 (the thicker green line on the chart). At 160.08, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). It is advisable to resume buying the pair after corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.67 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.79 and 160.08.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks below 159.67 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 159.43 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Sellers could return at any moment—any hint from the central bank could trigger this. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 159.79 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 159.67 and 159.43.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.3453 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair decreased to the target level of 1.3412.

The US dollar rose sharply against the British pound, benefiting from a combination of favorable economic and geopolitical factors. The main driver of the dollar's strengthening was the release of the ISM Manufacturing Index in the US, which exceeded economists' expectations, rising to 54 points. This figure, reflecting the state of the manufacturing sector in the world's largest economy, is a key indicator of its health and business activity. A value above 50 typically indicates production expansion, which the market views as a positive signal, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of American assets.

Additional pressure on the pair came from escalating disagreements between the United States and Iran. The intensification of geopolitical tensions in a key region of the world inevitably heightens global uncertainty.

Today promises to be no less eventful for financial markets, especially in the UK. In the first half of the day, key economic indicators will be released, allowing an assessment of consumer demand and the availability of credit resources. Data on approved mortgage applications serve as a barometer of public confidence in their own capabilities and the prospects of the housing market. An increase in this indicator may indicate some revival in the construction sector and, consequently, a positive impact on related industries. However, due to high interest rates, good figures are unlikely.

Nevertheless, despite the importance of all the listed data, the highlight of the day will undoubtedly be the speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Markets will carefully analyze each of his words for signals about the central bank's future actions.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3481 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.3524 (thicker green line on the chart). At level 1.3524, I plan to exit the long positions and immediately open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level). One can only expect a strong rise in the pound today after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.3458 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3481 and 1.3524.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks below the level of 1.3458 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3412 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). Pressure on the pound will return in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3481 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.3458 and 1.3412.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The test of the price level at 1.1643 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the appropriate entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.1608.

The recent slowdown in indirect talks between Iran and the United States, reportedly due to breaches of the ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza, triggered a strengthening of the US dollar in the latter half of the day. However, the initial dynamics were soon altered by a series of Trump statements. His rhetoric aimed at reducing tensions helped calm the markets. Given Trump's significant influence on the US political scene and global financial processes, his comments halted the dollar's strengthening.

This morning, important data regarding the Eurozone's consumer price index (CPI) for May is anticipated. Further increases are expected, which may significantly affect the European Central Bank's monetary policy. Current forecasts suggest that the core CPI in the Eurozone will show a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, while the basic CPI, excluding energy and food prices, may rise by 2.4%. This reflects ongoing supply chain issues that contribute to rising production costs. Additionally, high energy prices remain a primary factor supporting inflationary pressure.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1662 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1705. At level 1.1705, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to grow after good data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1643 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1662 and 1.1705.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1643 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1608, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will only return if the reports are weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1662 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposing levels of 1.1643 and 1.1608.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.