The EUR/USD pair traded between 1.1114 and 1.1269 for a month. On Tuesday, the United States released its October inflation report, which triggered another wave of selling by bears. These selling pressures continued on Wednesday, pushing the euro slightly below the established range. At present, it is too early to say with certainty that the sideways movement has ended. The price could still sweep liquidity below the last two lows before reversing in favor of the euro. However, the price action over the past five trading days does not suggest a favorable outlook for the single currency. On Wednesday, there were no significant news releases that could have provided new support for the dollar. Therefore, the latest decline in EUR/USD appears rather unusual. There are no clear reasons for another appreciation of the US currency after its gains over the past three months. The market continues to price in the Fed's future monetary policy tightening, which is expected in a month and has already been priced in repeatedly.

Over the past two months, the fundamental backdrop has frequently favored the euro, but this has had virtually no impact on its exchange rate. Last week, it became known that the Republican Party had suffered a decisive election defeat, while inflation in the European Union accelerated to 4%. The US Congress will now be divided, and cooperation between Democrats and Republicans is likely to remain extremely difficult. As a result, many important government decisions could face significant delays. Another increase in inflation in the European Union points to further ECB monetary policy tightening, just as rising inflation in the United States points to further Fed tightening. If the market is pricing in another FOMC rate increase, it should also be pricing in further ECB rate increases. However, over the past few months, the fundamental relationships driving EUR/USD have been highly inconsistent.

It is worth recalling that one of the main reasons behind the dollar's appreciation over the past three months was the Fed's hawkish stance. However, in practice, the Fed's position is not particularly hawkish compared with that of other central banks. For example, the ECB is expected to implement its third rate increase in December, while the Bank of England has only just begun its monetary policy tightening cycle but could deliver as many as four full rounds of increases. The pound is responding to these factors, whereas the euro is not.

At present, there are no signs that the bearish move is coming to an end. Imbalance 24 remains valid, and the price has yet to react to it by forming a sell signal. Buyers need to invalidate Imbalance 24 and form bullish patterns before any meaningful recovery can be expected. This would require a sharp upward move in the euro, which has yet to materialize. The liquidity sweep above 1.1270, together with strong US labor market and inflation data, triggered another wave of selling. Buyers can now only hope for another liquidity sweep below the recent lows. Another bearish imbalance could form this week.

Overall, the fundamental backdrop continues to favor buyers. Despite the Fed's increasingly hawkish monetary policy stance, this is not the only factor determining exchange rates. Thursday's economic data provided no justification for renewed dollar buying, yet the market is currently showing no interest in selling the US currency under any circumstances.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union:

• European Union – Change in GDP in the Third Quarter (10:00 UTC).
• United States – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On November 13, the economic calendar contains two scheduled releases, including the US PPI report, which deserves particular attention. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend, which has been undergoing a corrective pause for an entire year. The fundamental backdrop shifted sharply in favor of bears nine months ago, but the four-year trend cannot yet be considered invalidated or complete. Buyers could resume their advance before the end of the year. However, their main opportunities are currently limited to the low of 1.1066 established in June last year and the low of 1.1105 recorded two weeks ago.

As for sellers, they have Imbalance 24 and the liquidity sweep above the recent high in their favor. A liquidity sweep is not, in itself, a pattern or trading signal, but it warns the market of a potential move in a particular direction. This is precisely the type of movement observed over the past five days. No trading signals have formed in recent days.

After a strong Monday that raised hopes for a sustained recovery in the pound, the GBP/USD pair plunged by 190 points. The latest decline over the past few days was once again driven by US economic data. October inflation rising by 0.4% month over month was enough to trigger a sharp appreciation of the dollar. In this case, the market appears to be experiencing another move driven primarily by traders' strong demand for the dollar. In other words, the dollar is not rising because of high inflation, a strong labor market, or low unemployment. It is rising because market participants are eager to buy it.

Yesterday, it became known that the Bank of England could raise interest rates a total of four times. This assessment was provided by representatives of the British economic research institute NIESR. Inflation in the UK is also rising, and, somewhat unexpectedly, could reach 5% next year. As a result, the Bank of England may need to raise interest rates at least three times and, more likely, four times. Would such clearly hawkish information have a positive effect on the pound? On Thursday, UK GDP reports were released, showing fairly strong results, but they attracted little attention from traders. The pound declined toward the order block, which may be its only source of support against a further decline.

Last week, the Bank of England implemented its first monetary policy tightening. Traders' reaction to this decision was rather mixed. Bullish momentum did not resume, even though the outcome of the Bank of England meeting could be considered as hawkish as possible. Bank of England policymakers not only raised interest rates, as expected, but also did so unanimously. However, traders placed greater importance on US inflation and labor market reports, which also increased the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening. Nevertheless, the market currently views potential Fed rate increases differently from further rate increases by the Bank of England.

An important factor supporting the pound's outlook is that traders expect the Bank of England to implement at least three additional monetary policy tightenings, while the Fed is expected to raise rates only once or, at most, twice. Naturally, the course of events in 2027 remains uncertain, but this is currently the weighted average market forecast. Therefore, the Bank of England could ultimately raise interest rates more aggressively than the Fed, which is unlikely to support the US currency. Geopolitical developments could support the dollar in the near term if Donald Trump decides to resume military operations against Iran. However, in recent days, Trump has spoken more frequently about reconciliation, negotiations, and concessions than about launching new strikes. Therefore, Iran and the United States may be moving toward a ceasefire after all.

Do bears have further downward potential? In my view, it is limited. Bears have pushed the dollar toward the upper end of the current trading range, but they have still failed to break out of it. There have been several compelling reasons to buy the dollar in 2026, but there have also been reasons for the pound to strengthen, which traders have frequently overlooked. As a result, the dollar and the pound, unlike the euro, have generally followed a relatively consistent pattern throughout the year, alternating between periods of appreciation and depreciation while remaining within a trading range.

The fundamental backdrop on Thursday was favorable for a bullish move. Annual, quarterly, and monthly GDP figures all showed strong results, while industrial production in September increased more than expected in both monthly and annual terms. However, no recovery in the pound has emerged so far. If the market has once again abandoned buying interest, the pound could continue to decline regardless of the incoming economic data. At present, the main hope lies in the order block.

The overall fundamental outlook remains such that, over the long term, a decline in the US dollar remains the most likely scenario. The conflict between Iran and the United States has not changed this assessment. Geopolitical developments reminded the market of the dollar's safe-haven status, but the conflict is currently on hold and could even come to an end. Therefore, until hostilities resume, a new bearish advance is not expected. Further escalation remains possible, as Donald Trump could still make an unexpected decision. If the next round of negotiations ends in the same way as the previous ones, Trump may decide to launch new strikes. Even the Democrats may be unable to prevent such a decision.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – Producer Price Index (13:30 UTC).

On November 13, the economic calendar contains just one scheduled release, which could easily trigger another bearish move. Economic data may influence market sentiment during the second half of Friday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. In recent weeks, buyers have controlled the market, but only within the trading range, which is clearly visible on the daily chart and remains intact. The local outlook is also bullish. A buy signal formed within Imbalance 32, but the pound's advance was short-lived due to strong US economic data.

The pound's upward target remains near the upper boundary of the trading range at 1.3670. However, traders now need fresh bullish signals. The only potential source of such signals is the market's reaction to the order block. An order block is a strong and relatively rare pattern, so the probability of a rebound from it is considered high. However, the first test of the zone did not produce a significant rebound.

On November 10, Google opened access to its new flagship model, Gemini 4 Carbon. Paid developers, companies, research institutions, and Google AI Ultra subscribers can now connect via the Gemini API in Google AI Studio, Gemini for Business, the Gemini app (including AI in Search), and the Antigravity platform. The model had previously been available only to cybersecurity specialists.

Google introduced an aggressive promo price through November 30: $2 per 1M input tokens and $10 per 1M output tokens, with rates set to double after the promotion. Versus competitors, the entry price looks attractive: roughly one-fifth the token cost of OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and about one-quarter the price of Anthropic's Fable 5.2. It is not yet clear whether Carbon will be included in lower-tier plans or a free tier. Follow the link for more details.

Local tech rally and strong dollar

Tech stocks received a powerful lift after CoreWeave's quarterly report: revenue surged by 168% to $3.7 billion, the company raised its full-year outlook, and earnings beat estimates. That boosted the stock in US trading and lifted the Nasdaq 100 by nearly 2%. The rally, however, remains localized: broad-based buying is absent, valuations of large tech names are still strained, and financing, regulatory, and energy risks persist.

At the same time, the dollar is strengthening on a repricing of Fed policy expectations. Hot inflation prints and hawkish official comments have pushed the odds of a December interest rate hike to roughly 85%, leaving little room for a pause. So tech optimism is coexisting with a strong dollar and ongoing market uncertainty. Follow the link for more details.

Throne, chips, and Singapore

Microsoft has overtaken Nvidia in market capitalization for the first time since June 2025 and reclaimed the No. 2 global spot. Apple remains the leader, while Nvidia slid to third after the spy-related scandal involving its CEO Jensen Huang, which rattled investor confidence.

The scandal also exposed a deeper issue: for years, Chinese firms have been bypassing US export controls via Singapore and a web of intermediaries to gain access to Nvidia's top chips. Officially, the equipment was shipped to regional cloud providers "for local use," but in practice, it was leased and routed to China. A chain of multiple legal entities and resellers makes Washington's controls practically unenforceable and export bans ineffective. Follow the link for more details.

Nvidia scandal and hawkish Fed send global markets reeling

Global equity markets are again moving lower, and the primary trigger is the unprecedented crisis at Nvidia. Amid reports of the CEO's alleged extramarital relationships — one partner reportedly under suspicion of spying for China — the board has launched an emergency probe and is vetting successors. The scandal not only hammered the chip giant's shares but also dragged down the entire AI sector, which had just started to recover on positive headlines from OpenAI and Anthropic.

Further pressure comes from the Federal Reserve's tightening. Traders now price in a December rate hike almost fully, and amid a stronger dollar and speculation about even more aggressive action, investors are locking in profits. In this macro environment, Asian currencies and emerging-market assets are under notable strain, forcing some central banks to intervene to support their currencies. Follow the link for more details.

The rebound was driven by UK economic data, which exceeded expectations in almost every category. September GDP, which measures the total value of goods and services produced by the country over the month, increased by 0.2% after remaining unchanged at 0.0% in August, while the forecast was close to zero. Industrial production rose by 0.3%, against expectations of a 0.3% decline. Manufacturing output increased by 0.7%, compared with an expected decline of 0.5%, while construction output rebounded from a 0.5% decline to growth of 0.8%.

Quarterly GDP growth of 0.7% confirmed expectations and exceeded the previous reading of 0.5%. Overall, the economic picture improved considerably compared with the situation seen in recent weeks, when data more often disappointed market participants.

These figures are important for the Bank of England. On November 5, Andrew Bailey said that a second rate increase was more likely than not, although he noted that the outlook depended partly on energy prices. The Bank raised its interest rate to 4.00%. The market had continued to assign roughly equal probabilities to a rate increase and no change in December, but the stronger economic data have strengthened the case for another increase.

Market attention will now shift to the United States, where there are several potential catalysts for renewed demand for the dollar. Weekly initial jobless claims data will be released, showing the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. The forecast stands at 195,000, compared with 189,000 previously. This will be followed by October existing home sales, which are expected to reach 3.87 million, down from 3.99 million. However, the main focus will be on speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Beth Hammack, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, and Mary Daly are scheduled to speak. On November 5, Hammack spoke about the need for restrictive monetary policy, while Barr stressed the need to remain prepared to raise interest rates in early September. Earlier this week, Goolsbee described the inflation report as concerning. In this context, a hawkish tone from Fed officials could restore demand for the dollar. The pound is therefore likely to remain under pressure through the end of the day, while the UK economic data have provided only partial support.

Momentum

The price is currently trading around 1.3274, almost at the upper boundary of the range, while the lower boundary is at 1.3241. A move beyond either boundary is called a breakout, but a single test of the level is not sufficient. The price needs to consolidate beyond it, meaning that several consecutive five-minute candles must close above or below the level. Otherwise, the move could turn out to be a false breakout, followed by a return to the range.

The key resistance level is 1.3275. Consolidation above this level would open the way toward 1.3301 and then 1.3328. The price is already testing this level, and it briefly moved above it overnight, reaching 1.3281, but failed to hold there and subsequently declined. Buyers now have support from the strong UK economic data. If the Fed does not adopt a more hawkish tone, a breakout is possible. However, the probability of a move higher appears lower than that of a downward reversal, particularly given that four Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.

The key support level is 1.3241. Consolidation below it would open the way toward 1.3209 and then 1.3183. This is the primary scenario. Today's low of 1.3249 did not reach the level, but if Fed officials deliver hawkish remarks and US economic data prove strong, demand for the dollar could return, potentially pushing the price down by more than 30 points in a short period. Entry should be considered only after candles close below the level.

Mean Reversion

There are two key levels here: 1.3286 and 1.3245. The upper level of 1.3286 is 11 points above the breakout level of 1.3275 and also above the overnight high of 1.3281. The scenario is as follows: the price breaks above 1.3275, reaches 1.3286, fails to extend its gains, and then moves back below the level. In this case, short positions could be considered, with a stop-loss placed slightly above 1.3286. However, if the price consolidates firmly above 1.3286, this would confirm a genuine breakout, and short positions should be avoided at that level. A reversal is more likely if Fed officials adopt a hawkish tone and the positive UK economic data have already been priced in.

The lower level of 1.3245 is only 4 pips below the breakout level of 1.3241, so beginners should exercise particular caution here. A single test of the level is not enough to determine the nature of the price movement. If the price breaks below 1.3241, reaches 1.3245, fails to extend its decline, and then moves back above the level, long positions could be considered, with a stop-loss placed slightly below 1.3241. If the price instead consolidates below this level, the move would confirm a breakout, and long positions should be avoided. The difference between these two scenarios may become clear within just a few minutes. Therefore, it is better to avoid trading the initial reaction in this zone and wait for a clearer signal.

The ECB's Economic Bulletin, which the bank publishes to explain its assessment of the economy and prices, contained no new information. It reiterated what the market already knew following the October 29 meeting. Interest rates were left unchanged at 2.50%, inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September, and the Governing Council has no predetermined path for interest rates. At the time, Christine Lagarde said that the Council had discussed a rate hike but had concluded that it could afford to wait. The bulletin contained neither new hawkish signals nor any indication of faster monetary tightening. Expectations of a rate hike to 2.75% at the December 17 meeting therefore remain unchanged.

The current move looks much more like a technical correction. The euro lost more than 140 points over two days, and after such a sustained wave of selling, a rebound is almost automatic. Many market participants are closing short positions, or bets on a decline, which is pushing the price higher. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop for the dollar has not changed. The probability of a Fed rate hike in December is estimated at more than 96%, up from approximately 80% on November 9, while US Treasury yields remain high. Therefore, the euro's recovery appears limited and is unlikely to develop into a sustained reversal for now.

Market attention will now shift to the United States, where there are plenty of potential catalysts for renewed demand for the dollar. Weekly initial jobless claims data will be released, showing the number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time after losing their jobs. The forecast is 195,000, following 189,000 previously, while the previous reading matched the lowest level since 1969. Such a low number of claims indicates that relatively few people in the United States are losing their jobs, providing another argument in favor of a hawkish Fed. Existing home sales for October will follow, with expectations of 3.87 million compared with 3.99 million previously.

However, the main focus will be on speeches by members of the Federal Reserve's policy committee. Beth Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, and Daly are scheduled to speak. On November 5, Hammack spoke about the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy. In early September, Barr stressed the need to remain prepared to raise interest rates, while Goolsbee described this week's inflation report as concerning. If they maintain this tone, the dollar could receive another boost.

Momentum

The price is currently trading near 1.1098, just below the upper boundary of the 1.1069–1.1102 level. A move beyond this boundary is known as a breakout, but a single touch is not enough. The price needs to establish itself beyond the level, meaning that several consecutive five-minute candles must close above or below it. Otherwise, there is a risk of a false breakout, after which the price may return to the range.

The key resistance level is 1.1102. A sustained move above it would open the way toward 1.1133 and then 1.1167. The price is just four points away from this level, so a breakout could occur at any moment. However, further gains may prove difficult because the current rise lacks fundamental support. The first target at 1.1133 is also close to Friday's low of 1.1131, which has now become resistance. Further upside would require a new catalyst, and the only potential catalyst would be unexpectedly dovish comments from Fed officials. This scenario appears unlikely.

On the other hand, the key level is 1.1069. A sustained move below it would open the way toward 1.1036 and then 1.1004. This is the primary scenario. Overnight, the price had already briefly moved below this level, reaching 1.1067, before immediately recovering. Therefore, a second test could result in a breakout. However, the level is still relatively far away, nearly 30 points below the current price, and the morning rebound must first lose momentum. Entering a position on the first touch would not be advisable.

Mean Reversion

There are two levels to watch here: 1.1110 and 1.1064. The upper reference level at 1.1110 is eight points above the breakout point of 1.1102 and is currently the more important of the two.

The strategy is as follows. The price breaks above 1.1102, reaches 1.1110, fails to extend its gains, and then moves back below the level. In that case, selling opportunities may arise, with a Stop Loss placed slightly above 1.1110. However, if the price establishes itself firmly above 1.1110, this would constitute a genuine breakout, and selling would no longer be advisable. A reversal is more likely if Fed officials deliver hawkish comments and labor market data comes in stronger than expected.

The lower reference level at 1.1064 is five points below the breakout point of 1.1069. Beginners should exercise particular caution here. It is impossible to determine the nature of the move based on a single touch. If the price breaks below 1.1069, reaches 1.1064, fails to extend its decline, and then moves back above the level, buying opportunities may arise, with a Stop Loss placed sufficiently below 1.1064. If the price instead establishes itself below that level, this would be a genuine breakout, and buying would not be advisable. The difference between these two scenarios may become clear within just a few minutes, so it is better to avoid trading the initial reaction in this zone.

The test of the 159.81 price level in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by just 12 points, with no further movement.

The yen remains under pressure from the dollar, and it is important to note that the USD/JPY exchange rate has approached the psychological 160 level. This morning, Mimura, who is responsible for currency policy at Japan's Ministry of Finance, stated that exchange rate movements in recent days had been too rapid and reminded markets that it was still too early to forget the events of last summer. He did not specify any particular levels, but the message was clear: if the exchange rate rises above 160, the risk of intervention will once again become significant.

However, dollar support is clearly expected to persist in the second half of the day. The US weekly jobless claims report is due, with a forecast of 195K following the previous reading of 189K. Existing home sales are also expected, with a forecast of 3.87M compared with 3.99M previously. Several FOMC members will also speak. Their comments have provided substantial support for the dollar this week. The speeches by Hammack and Goolsbee are of particular interest. In the event of hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve, the pair could test 160. Above this level, warnings from the Ministry of Finance could give way to actual intervention.

As for the intraday strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Buying USD/JPY is planned today when the price reaches the entry point near 159.81 (the thin green line on the chart), with a target of a rise to 160.23 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 160.23, long positions will be closed and short positions opened in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level. A rise in the pair today can be expected only if US economic data is strong. Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has only just begun moving upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: Buying USD/JPY is also planned today if the price tests 159.60 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 159.81 and 160.23 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Selling USD/JPY is planned today after the price breaks below 159.60 (the red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The sellers' key target will be 159.23, where short positions will be closed and long positions opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level. Downward pressure on the pair could return today if the central bank intervenes. Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has only just begun moving downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: Selling USD/JPY is also planned today if the price tests 159.81 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.60 and 159.23 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further gains above this level are considered unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level at which Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further declines below this level are considered unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to take overbought and oversold conditions into account.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise great caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is generally best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, the entire trading account can be depleted very quickly, especially if risk management rules are not followed and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.3267 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 11 points.

The pound received the support it had been lacking in recent days: strong domestic economic data. UK GDP increased by 0.7% quarter over quarter in the third quarter and by 1.9% year over year, while the monthly figure for September exceeded expectations, coming in at 0.2%. Industrial production figures followed, showing an increase rather than the expected decline, with output rising by 0.3% in industrial production and by 0.7% in the manufacturing sector. These figures should have strengthened expectations of further Bank of England rate increases, with the current rate standing at 4.00%. Nevertheless, positive UK data are competing with US factors, which currently have a stronger influence on the market. US Treasury yields remain elevated, and the probability of a Fed rate hike in December is estimated at 96%.

Despite receiving relatively strong domestic economic data, the pound will once again become dependent on the dollar in the second half of the day. US weekly jobless claims are due, with forecasts of 195K compared with 189K previously, along with existing home sales, expected at 3.87M compared with 3.99M in the previous reading. These figures are unlikely to be the main market drivers. The primary focus will be on speeches and interviews by FOMC members Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, and Daly. As noted above, the market estimates the probability of a December Fed rate hike at 96%, and hawkish remarks from these officials could restore demand for the dollar.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be bought today when the price reaches the entry level around 1.3281 (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.3310 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3310, the long position can be closed and a short position opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move downward from that level. The pound could appreciate today if US economic data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.3265 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 1.3281 and 1.3310 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The pound can be sold today following a break below 1.3265 (the red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3239, where the short position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point upward move from that level. Strong selling pressure on sterling could return if US economic data comes in stronger than expected. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: The pound can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.3281 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3265 and 1.3239 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further upward movement above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further downward movement below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place Stop Loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without Stop Loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially if proper money management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.

The test of the 1.1073 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line. This confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro, but the expected decline in the pair never materialized.

The euro's current rebound following the ECB bulletin appears to be technical rather than fundamental. The document confirmed that inflation reached 3.8% in September, energy prices remain the main source of inflationary pressure, and inflation risks are tilted to the upside. None of this is new information for the market. At the same time, the regulator acknowledged that financial conditions have tightened, demand for loans has declined, and risks to economic growth are tilted to the downside. This combination provides no basis for a sustained euro recovery, as it merely confirms the scenario already priced in by the market: one rate hike in December, with no commitment to further increases.

The euro will now face the impact of US economic events in the second half of the day. Weekly jobless claims are expected to reach 195K, indicating that the US labor market remains resilient. Existing home sales for October are forecast at 3.87M, compared with 3.99M in the previous month. However, the speeches by FOMC members Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, and Daly will be much more important, as the market has already priced in a 96% probability of a December rate hike. Any hawkish remarks could further strengthen these expectations.

Looking at previous developments, Hammack voted in favor of a rate hike on October 28 and spoke in support of restrictive monetary policy on November 5. Her rhetoric has not changed since then. Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the evening, but until then, the dollar may have an opportunity to strengthen its position. If Fed officials make hawkish comments, demand for the US currency is likely to return, while the euro will remain under downward pressure.

As for the intraday trading strategy, greater emphasis will be placed on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches the 1.1105 level (the green line on the chart), with an upward target of 1.1129. At 1.1129, the position can be closed, and a short position can be opened in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. The euro could appreciate today if US economic data comes in weaker than expected. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started moving upward from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be bought today if the price tests the 1.1089 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 1.1105 and 1.1129 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: The euro can be sold after the price reaches 1.1089 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1065, where the position can be closed and a long position opened immediately in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25-point move upward from that level. Selling pressure on the pair is likely to return if US economic data exceeds expectations. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started moving downward from it.

Scenario #2: The euro can also be sold today if the price tests the 1.1105 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1089 and 1.1065 can then be expected.

What the Chart Shows

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further upward movement above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price level at which a Take Profit order can be placed or profits can be closed manually, as further downward movement below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is generally best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental data releases to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If trading during news releases, always place Stop Loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without Stop Loss orders, the entire trading account can be lost very quickly, especially if proper money management is not applied and large position sizes are used.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently an unsuccessful strategy for an intraday trader.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the latest downward wave broke below the previous low. Following the September FOMC meeting, traders have been expecting at least one more round of monetary policy tightening by the end of the year and another one next year. This factor continues to support the US currency, while economic data from the United States only increase the likelihood of a hawkish scenario.

There was virtually no significant news flow on Wednesday, but this did not discourage the bears, who continued selling as if the inflation report had been released twice, on both Tuesday and Wednesday. It is understandable that higher inflation growth rates make several rounds of FOMC monetary policy tightening more likely. However, the dollar has already been rising for three months, and bears have continued selling with only brief pauses throughout this period. Moreover, Fed officials expect inflation to slow next year.

In other words, the potential for further interest rate increases in the United States is limited in any case and does not justify the dollar's three-month rally. Christine Lagarde and the ECB are also prepared to raise interest rates further, but this has failed to provide any meaningful support for the euro. Why? In my view, the euro will undoubtedly have to regard 2026 as a negative year, but the fundamental background has not been unfavorable enough to justify its continued decline. Nevertheless, traders still have technical levels to guide their trading decisions, and market movements cannot be easily challenged.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has reversed in favor of the US currency once again and declined to the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1088. A rebound from this level would favor the euro and could lead to some upward movement toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.1221. Consolidation below 1.1088 would increase the likelihood of further declines. No new emerging divergences are currently visible on any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 1,263 Long positions and opened 12,634 Short positions. The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 229,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 387,000. Bears remain firmly in control, and the euro continues to be sold more frequently than it is bought. This can be attributed to the challenging geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the Fed's willingness to continue tightening monetary policy. The market believes that the Fed will keep raising interest rates for as long as necessary.

Overall, large market participants continue to show considerable interest in the euro over the longer term. Global developments of various kinds, which have been particularly numerous in recent years, undoubtedly influence investor sentiment and put pressure on risk-sensitive currencies. Furthermore, 2026 could set a record for the number of unexpected events that could not have been anticipated in advance. For this reason, the euro is waiting for more favorable conditions.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the European Union

• United States – Initial jobless claims (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Existing home sales (15:00 UTC).
• European Union – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (19:30 UTC).

On November 12, the economic calendar contains three events, with Christine Lagarde's speech being the only one worth particular attention. The impact of economic news on market sentiment is expected to be limited on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from the 1.1081–1.1086 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1220 and 1.1270. Selling opportunities may arise today if the pair consolidates below the 1.1081–1.1086 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0939–1.0944.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1325 to 1.1712 on both the hourly and 4-hour charts.

That raises the question of whether the selling has run its course. Over five sessions, funds lost roughly $1.44 billion. The largest hit was to IBIT: BlackRock's fund saw $269.7 million redeemed, GBTC lost $39.1 million, while only Morgan Stanley's product attracted $9 million.

Wednesday's outflow is smaller than recent peaks — October 30 saw $643.2 million of redemptions (the largest daily outflow in October) and November 2 saw $399 million — but the cumulative effect is more important. By November 6, IBIT had lost about $1.44 billion over six consecutive sessions. Across nine sessions, the total exceeded $2 billion. The week of November 2–6 ended with $1.28 billion of outflows, the largest weekly withdrawal since late June, leaving year-to-date flows negative by roughly $919 million, and three additional outflow sessions have pushed that deficit deeper. I attribute the concentration of withdrawals in a single fund to large players cutting positions first, who need the most liquid vehicle.

The correlation picture with equities has also shifted. On November 5, Bitcoin fell with the Nasdaq 100 amid a correlation of 0.8, the highest since May 2022, but on Monday, the Nasdaq bounced by nearly 3%, while Bitcoin barely reacted. Equity gains without a corresponding move in Bitcoin indicate insufficient spot buyer interest.

To trigger a genuine reversal, we would need three consecutive inflow sessions and a reclaim above $75,500 — neither condition is present now, so I don't expect a sustained bounce yet.

Bitcoin

The current range is roughly 3,300–73,600, and the playbook covers two mirror scenarios with a full breakout and retreat contingencies. For long positions, the first scenario assumes a break above $73,600, targeting $74,100, where traders should lock in profit and consider a short position on a pullback, provided that the price is above the 50-day MA and the Awesome Oscillator is positive. The second scenario kicks in if a break below $73,300 fails and the price returns to the range. A rebound off $73,300 would be a buy signal, targeting $73,600 and then $74,100.

For short positions, the first scenario requires a confirmed break below $73,300, targeting $72,800, with the 50-day MA above the price and Awesome negative. If an upside breakout above $73,600 fails, a rebound from this level offers a short opportunity, aiming for $73,300 and then to $72,800.

Ethereum

The logic mirrors Bitcoin's on its own price scale. The range is 2,035-2,049. Buy on a confirmed breakout above $2,049, targeting $2,068. Take profit there and consider a short position on a pullback, or buy on a rebound from $2,035 after a false break lower, targeting $2,049 and then $2,068. In both long setups, the price should be above the 50-day MA, and Awesome must be above zero.

Sell on a confirmed break below $2,035, targeting $2,009, with the 50-day MA above the price and Awesome negative, or go short on a false breakout above $2,049, aiming back to $2,035 and then $2,009. Both indicators act only as filters to screen false moves, not as standalone entry signals. Trades should be taken only after price confirmation at the specified levels.

Bitcoin continues to fall, and hopes for a "bull" trend are melting like mid-April snow. Last week the market endured another crash, and this week the decline continues. At present the move is still considered corrective, yet Bitcoin is sliding down more confidently despite regular pullbacks. Recall that the possibility the downtrend has ended exists. However, the reasons for a new "bull" trend still look ambiguous and debatable. The latest Bitcoin rise, which took three months, was essentially a move from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary on the daily timeframe after a deviation of the channel's lower boundary and the formation of a deviation of the upper boundary. The upper boundary deviation was deep, but if it is indeed a deviation, Bitcoin set course for $70,800. Digital gold returned to the sideways channel, so a move to its 50% level is more than natural and logical. In principle, Bitcoin has only $3k left to reach $70,800. What are $3k for digital gold?

All recent events and news have added pressure on the leading cryptocurrency and all its "younger brothers." How will Bitcoin react to the endless stream of negativity? Spot investments are falling, investors are withdrawing funds from ETFs, inflation is rising, central banks are taking an ever-tougher stance, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East persists, and the threats of quantum or AI hacks over Bitcoin are growing. And this is far from the full list of reasons for a possible fall of the leading crypto. Thus, we still do not see what will make Bitcoin rise in the remaining 1.5 months of 2026. The four-year cycle cannot work forever; all "Uptober" patterns and the idea that "Bitcoin always rises the year after the halving" no longer work, and miners continue to leave the crypto segment in favor of the AI sector.

General BTC/USD picture on 1D

On the daily timeframe, the downtrend structure is broken, so perhaps digital gold has officially begun forming a new "bull" trend. However, price consumed the bearish FVG from the previous trend, reacted to that pattern, and a correction began. The breakout beyond the September sideways channel $60,000–$82,500 may be a deviation, which, together with reactions to two bearish FVGs, could provoke a fall toward the lower boundary of the sideways channel. Last week Bitcoin corrected to the nearest bearish FVG and received a vivid reaction with the formation of a new sell signal. Thus, we still do not believe that the bearish trend and the flat are finished.

Also see other articles by the author:

EUR/USD review. November 12. What problems faces EUR?

GBP/USD review. November 12. GBP risks going freefall again.

What causes panic around USD?

How to trade EUR/USD on November 12? Simple tips and trade breakdowns for beginners

How to trade GBP/USD on November 12? Simple tips and trade breakdowns for beginners

What to watch on November 12? Fundamental events explained for beginners

Interpretation of EUR/USD analysis results on November 12

Interpretation of GBP/USD analysis results on November 12

General BTC/USD picture on 4H

On the 4-hour timeframe the formation of a bearish structure continues. The CHOCH line currently sits at $81,200. On the daily TF all necessary sell reversal signals were produced, allowing traders to open short positions. Bitcoin's targets are best determined by the daily sideways channel, which, in our view, remains relevant. On the 4-hour TF the trend structure is bearish, and on the daily TF Bitcoin reacted to another bearish pattern. A new drop did not take long to arrive... After that, another bearish FVG was formed, to which price failed to fully correct. A reaction to it may provoke a new decline.

Trading recommendations — BTC/USD

Bitcoin attempted to start a new uptrend, but the fundamental backdrop, spot demand, and recent news are too negative to count on its continuation. In the near term, on the daily, the TF Bitcoin may remain in decline, since the price has already reacted to three bearish FVGs and formed a bearish order block. A move outside the daily sideways channel is treated as a deviation. Thus, Bitcoin produced a reversal signal and set course for $70,800. We do not consider the bearish trend finished. Short positions are more relevant than longs in the near term. The most recent bearish FVG on the daily chart allowed formation of a new sell signal. On the 4-hour TF there is another bearish FVG, and a reaction to it will give traders an opportunity to open new short positions.

Illustration notes:

CHOCH—change of trend structure.

Liquidity—liquidity, stop losses, and pending orders market makers use to accumulate positions.

FVG—fair-value gap. A price-inefficiency zone that price traverses quickly, indicating the absence of one side of the market; thereafter price tends to return and react to such areas in continuation of the main trend.

IFVG — inverted fair-value gap. After returning to such an area, the price often does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests from the other side.

OB — order block. The candle where a market maker opened a position aiming to take liquidity to form a position in the opposite direction.

In my view, Trump wants global recognition, historical achievements, a Nobel Prize, and money. The first three items are optional. Of course the White House leader will not object to entering U.S. history, appearing in textbooks, being depicted on U.S. banknotes, and getting his own Taj Mahal and a Cheops pyramid as recognition of his services to the nation. However, if there is simply money, that is also fine.

It is no secret that many of Trump's decisions and decrees lead to the enrichment of him and his family. Perhaps this is even logical, because people run for the U.S. presidency to make money. Otherwise, why would Trump become president if ordinary business brings greater returns? Paradoxically, Trump's wealth grew on cryptocurrencies, since the president did everything he could to promote their development in the U.S. Equally paradoxically, Trump owned companies began buying oil stocks a few weeks before the outbreak of the war with Iran. A dinner at one table with Trump costs $300,000, and it is not certain that Trump himself will even appear at that dinner. Access to earlier messages from the president on Truth Social costs $100,000.

In addition, by the same methods, Trump tries to replenish the state treasury. We impose tariffs—we fill the treasury with money from American taxpayers. We start wars—we refill the treasury with money from American consumers and other countries. We conduct a military operation—we have to bill everyone who is in any way related to it.

The war with Iran cost Trump control of Congress, but the Republican president does not despair. His powers remain quite extensive. Meanwhile, it is possible to try to get money from those countries that "America protected in the war in the Middle East." Which countries those are is unlikely anyone can say, and Trump himself started the war with Iran right in the middle of the Epstein case, in which he was a central figure. Nevertheless, the master of the White House believes Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait owe America for protection. Why the European Union did not end up on that list of debtors is hard to say. After all, without Trump, Iran would have long ago destroyed the Europe he hates. Indonesia likewise would not be able to sleep peacefully, since Tehran allegedly has nuclear missiles and thus would destroy the whole world. But Trump saved everyone. It does not matter that Iran still possesses a nuclear warhead stockpile and does not intend to give it up.

Also see my other articles:

Analysis of EUR/USD. November 12. CME FedWatch pushes dollar up.

Wave structure for EUR/USD

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude the instrument remains within a global corrective A-B-C-D-E trend segment. However, this structure looks fully complete and therefore may be finished at any moment. In my view, now is a good time not only to buy the European currency but also to expect a full bullish trend segment. On the higher timeframe, one should expect a rise of at least 1,700–1,800 pips. An unsuccessful attempt to break 1.1082, which corresponds to 161.8% on Fibonacci, will indicate market readiness to buy. A breakout of that level—to selling.

Wave structure for GBP/USD

The wave picture for GBP/USD has become fairly clear. Charts show a distinct corrective A-B-C-D-E structure that may be complete. A similar structure for EUR/USD may also be complete. If that assumption is correct, then the pound has finished its decline. If that assumption is correct, Sterling has begun building a bullish trend segment with targets above the peaks of waves B and D—that is, above the 3,700-pip level. Three waves of the first wave of the new bullish segment are already formed. Consequently, the rise in quotes may continue with targets around 1.3531 and 1.3651, which correspond to 76.4% and 100.0% on Fibonacci.

Key principles of my analysis:

1) Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.

2) If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.

3) There is no such thing as 100% certainty in direction; do not forget protective stop-loss orders.

4) Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The market situation has turned bearish. The latest completed upward wave failed to break above the previous peak, while the new downward wave broke below the previous low. As a result, bears have temporarily gained control of the market. The market has already priced in the FOMC's monetary policy tightening in the near term, while expectations of further Bank of England tightening are only beginning to build. A resumption of the pound's upward movement is expected after the corrective pullback is complete.

There was no significant news flow on Wednesday, but bears continued to exert selling pressure. The US inflation report, which showed a reading just 0.1 percentage points above traders' expectations on a month-over-month basis, continued to influence market movements for two days. This is both unusual and paradoxical.

This morning, traders were presented with another paradox. UK GDP increased by 0.7% quarter over quarter and 1.9% year over year compared with the second quarter. These figures indicate that the UK economy is gaining momentum, allowing the Bank of England to take a more decisive approach to combating high inflation. In other words, they increase the likelihood of several additional rounds of monetary policy tightening in 2027.

It is worth recalling that, driven by rising expectations of FOMC monetary policy tightening, the market has been consistently buying the dollar throughout the second half of 2026. However, the pound is reacting somewhat differently to similar developments. Today, for example, it showed virtually no appreciation. This is the paradox. At present, bears remain in control. Although there are no clear fundamental reasons for another round of selling, they still appear sufficiently willing to push GBP/USD lower.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD declined to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3265. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and could lead to some upward movement toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3342. Consolidation below 1.3265 would signal a continuation of the decline toward the 0.0% retracement level at 1.3137. The CCI indicator is approaching a bullish divergence, which could halt the pair's decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment of the Non-commercial trader category became less bearish over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators increased by 7,135, while the number of Short positions decreased by 12,458. The current gap between Long and Short positions stands at approximately 64,000 versus 124,000, respectively. The bears' advantage remains substantial and continues to widen over time. Previously, bearish dominance was unquestionable, but the situation has become less clear as the fundamental background has changed in recent months.

The bearish trend in the pound is still not considered convincing. However, developments in the near future will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East.

Over the past few months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward a more peaceful outlook, but negotiations between Iran and the United States remain extremely difficult. Whether Washington and Tehran will ultimately reach an agreement remains uncertain. Any escalation in geopolitical tensions could once again increase demand for the dollar.

Economic Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom

• United Kingdom – GDP growth rate in the third quarter (07:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom – Change in industrial production (07:00 UTC).
• United States – Initial jobless claims (13:30 UTC).
• United States – Existing home sales (15:00 UTC).

On November 12, the economic calendar contains four events, with particular attention focused on UK GDP. Economic data could influence market sentiment throughout Thursday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Selling opportunities arose following a rebound from the 1.3454–1.3469 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3404 and 1.3342. Both targets were reached. Further selling opportunities emerged following a close below 1.3342, with a target of 1.3263. This target was also reached.

Today, the pound can be sold following a close below 1.3263, with a target of 1.3177. Buying opportunities may arise following a rebound from 1.3263, with a target of 1.3342.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3674 to 1.3136 on the hourly chart and from 1.3674 to 1.3137 on the 4-hour chart.

Technical Analysis and Price Action

Price Channel Structure: The price has been moving within a broad, primary ascending channel (depicted in blue), which previously saw a strong upward surge. However, recent pullbacks have led to a downward breakout from a steeper, secondary ascending channel (depicted in pink/red). This bearish breakout signals a clear waning of buying momentum and an intensification of selling pressure in the short term, as the price now attempts to stabilize near the lower boundary of the primary channel.

Interaction with Weekly Pivot Levels: The price faced intense downward pressure after failing to hold above key resistance levels—specifically the weekly pivot point at 4031.21 and higher resistance levels, such as the first weekly resistance (Weekly R1) at 4186.20. Following this reversal, the price broke below the weekly pivot point and is now trading beneath it, moving toward the first weekly support level (Weekly S1) at 3916.04. Pivotal Support and Resistance Levels

Key Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 4031.21 (Weekly Pivot point; a threshold for the intraday trend that has now turned into a strong resistance level).

Second Resistance: 4186.20 (Weekly R1 resistance level).

Pivotal Resistance: 4301.37 (Weekly R2 resistance level).

Key Support Levels:

First Support: 3916.04 (Weekly S1 support level; the near-term target for the current bearish momentum).

Second Support: 3850.00 (A psychological support level and a previous low).

Pivotal Support: 3761.05 (Weekly S2 support level, should the price decline extend further).

Price Movement Outlook and Trading Recommendations

Bearish Scenario (Primary):

The negative trend remains dominant and most likely to persist as long as the price stays below the nearby resistance levels and the weekly pivot point of 4031.21.

Recommendation: It is advisable to sell into any corrective upward rebounds toward the 3980.00–4020.00 range, provided these levels continue to cap any price gains.

Technical Targets: Aim for the first weekly support level at 3916.04, with the potential for further extension toward the 3850.00 area. Corrective Bullish Scenario (Alternative):

This scenario is triggered if sudden buying pressure emerges, successfully lifting prices from current levels and negating the impact of the recent breakdown.

Confirmation Condition: A 4-hour candle must close clearly above the weekly pivot level of 4031.21.

Technical Targets: This would pave the way for a fresh bullish correction, targeting resistance levels near 4186.20.

Risk Management:

During periods of momentum reversal or the breakdown of bullish channels in the gold market, traders are strongly cautioned against entering positions indiscriminately. It is essential to strictly adhere to rigorous capital management rules, limiting risk to a maximum of 2% per trade. Furthermore, stop-loss orders should be precisely placed to protect the portfolio from sharp volatility.

Gold Price Action on the Daily Chart:

The price is currently trading at 3938.04 within a descending channel on the daily timeframe. It has retreated, falling back below the monthly pivot point of 3989.91, following a failure to sustain its position above the first monthly resistance level (Monthly R1) at 4110.09.

Analysis of the Last Two Candles (Yesterday and Today):

Yesterday's Candle: Reflected selling pressure and a decline that pushed the price back toward the monthly pivot point, following a downward reversal from the upper boundary of the descending channel.

Today's Candle: Indicates a continuation of the bearish momentum, with the price breaking below the monthly pivot point to settle at 3938.04, amid clear dominance by the bears.

Outlook for Future Movement:

Bearish Scenario (Primary): Remains highly probable as long as the price stays below the monthly pivot point of 3989.91 and within the descending channel. The decline may continue, targeting the first monthly support level (Monthly S1) at 3754.69.

Bullish Scenario (Alternative): Would be triggered if the price manages to rebound and achieve a daily close above 3989.91, potentially leading to a retest of the 4110.09 (Monthly R1) area.

Vacant seats get filled. Rallies in shares of Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom, NVIDIA's main competitors, show that investors believe no company is irreplaceable. Other chipmakers are ready to step in for one large producer, however dominant, and the AI industry will keep functioning.

NVIDIA peers' stock performance

Fears about the efficacy of new technologies are also easing. A Wall Street Journal scoop reports OpenAI's Q3 revenue reached $10 billion, marking a 50% increase quarter?on?quarter and nearly three times year?on?year.

CoreWeave's results impressed investors as well. The so?called "non?cloud" company that builds and leases data centers to Microsoft, OpenAI, and others saw its shares jump by 25%, the best one?day performance in over a year.

CoreWeave data?center footprint dynamics

Positive results from CoreWeave ease many concerns around demand, pricing, and financing. The market concluded that investment growth in AI can slow without halting AI adoption.

Investors increasingly recognize that Democrats are unlikely to cripple new technologies — not least because doing so would cut the branch supporting the US economy. AI has helped the global economy adapt to tough conditions: growth persists despite massive US tariffs, an energy shock from the Middle East conflict, and broad monetary tightening by major central banks.

US investment in AI deserves the credit. Asian chip exports are accelerating, Australia and other countries are opening data centers, and Europe is supplying power and cooling infrastructure. A Congressional blow to AI would be catastrophic for the global economy — and it's hard to see Congress taking that step.

This helps explain why the S&P 500 can advance even as Treasury yields rally and Fed tightening odds rise.

Technically, the daily S&P 500 chart shows an inside bar. A break above its high near 7,540 would justify adding to previously opened long positions.

Dynamics of the German Economy

The first scenario is currently unfolding. Easing concerns that the new Congress could impose restrictions on the artificial intelligence industry, combined with expectations of an accelerated Fed monetary tightening cycle, is supporting EUR/USD bears amid US exceptionalism. If Democrats were to restrict the industry, the risk of a global recession would increase, and the dollar would benefit as a safe-haven asset.

US consumer prices rose by 0.4% month over month in October, compared with the expected 0.3%, while the core indicator increased by 0.3% instead of the anticipated 0.2%. Speaking at a conference in London, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that he would support a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike in December but would also consider a 50-basis-point increase if core inflation reached 0.3% or higher. It came in at exactly that level.

The futures market currently assigns a 90% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike and a 10% probability to a 50-basis-point increase. Since the smaller move has already become the baseline scenario, the dollar needs stronger reasons to rise further, namely, expectations of a double-sized federal funds rate hike. A strong producer price index reading in the upcoming release or further hawkish remarks from FOMC officials could push Treasury yields and the dollar above their recent highs.

Changes in Market Expectations Regarding the Scale of Monetary Tightening

France's debt problems remain a negative factor for the euro. Ahead of the ECB's December meeting, the market is pricing in a 78% probability of a 25-basis-point deposit rate increase, but the central bank may not go further than that. Rabobank notes growing concerns among Governing Council members about the economic growth outlook. Uncertainty surrounding the electoral prospects of a far-right candidate in next year's French presidential election is also adding pressure on the currency pair. Rabobank expects the euro to weaken to $1.10 over the next three months.

For EUR/USD, this means facing pressure from two directions. The Federal Reserve could deliver a sharp policy move as early as December, while French political risks are likely to weigh on the currency pair gradually throughout next year, up to the presidential election.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD daily chart shows the development of an Expanding Wedge pattern. The rebound from 1.106 has created an opportunity for an upward correction. At the same time, a rejection at the resistance levels of 1.1135 and 1.115 could provide an opportunity to open or increase short positions.

Back's timing and arguments shifted over spring and summer. In April, he warned that institutional capital would come into Bitcoin more slowly than many expect. In May, he mentioned $1.5 million by spring 2028 when comparing Bitcoin's market cap to gold. In June, he said a range of 500K-1M by 2028 wouldn't require massive institutional flows and could be achieved by retail interest and ETF demand. He has now returned to the $1 million mark and reaffirmed a personal bet he had previously tied to the spring 2028 halving. Notably, this summer, the thesis relied on retail and existing ETF flows. Now, the stake is on an institutional wave that, in his view, has yet to arrive. To reach $1M, Bitcoin must rise nearly fourteenfold from current levels, so this is more a long-cycle wager than a trade.

Remember that the channel Back expects is currently working in the opposite direction. In the week of November 2–6, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.28 billion of outflows, $1.21 billion of which came from IBIT, and year-to-date flows remain negative at about $919 million. BlackRock's recommendation to hold 2–4% in Bitcoin has not translated into buying; managers are mostly inactive.

Note that Back is not the first to call a low. On November 3, Tom Lee told CNBC, "we're at the bottom" when Bitcoin traded near $80,500, and on Tuesday, he predicted a bull market lasting 24–36 months. Since then, the price has fallen nearly 10%, and the market has not responded to either call. Over the past 24 hours, short-term holders sent 47,300 BTC to exchanges at a loss; their cost basis of $75,691 remains above the current price.

I believe Back's long-term thesis is plausible, but in the coming weeks, the dollar and the Fed will decide the outcome, not him.

Technical analysis and recommendations:

Regarding Bitcoin technicals, buyers are now targeting a return to $75,000, which opens a direct path to $76,900 and then to $78,500. Clearing that level would signal attempts to restore the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers to defend $72,800. A drop below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,100, with a further target near $69,400.

Regarding Ethereum technicals, consolidation above $2,093 opens a path to $2,149. The next upside target is $2,194. A break above that level would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, buyers should appear near $2,020. A move below that level could send ETH toward $1,974, with a further target near $1,916.

What's on the chart:

• Red levels: support and resistance where the price is likely to pause or accelerate.
• Green: 50-day moving average.
• Blue: 100-day moving average.
• Light green: 200-day moving average.

Crosses or the price tests of these averages typically either stop a move or set a new market impulse.

To understand what this means, recall how stablecoins work. They are issued when money flows into crypto and burned when money leaves, so they effectively represent cash inside the system used to buy Bitcoin, provide margin, and trade on exchanges. When supply grows, new dollars enter the market, buying power and liquidity rise, and any price advance has fuel. When supply contracts, holders swap stablecoins for dollars and withdraw those funds from the market, leaving less buying power for bounces.

It's important not to overread the indicator. Stablecoin supply does not predict price so much as confirm where money is going, and it often shrinks after prices fall. That is why many traders view a renewed increase in stablecoin supply as the first sign that fresh capital is arriving, rather than as the sole cause of a market turnaround. Bitcoin is down about 17% year-to-date, and spot ETF outflows totaled $1.28 billion in the week of Nov 2–6, so the decline in stablecoins adds another independent channel of withdrawals.

The current $14.2 billion reduction is roughly half the peak-rate withdrawals seen in 2022, so it is noticeable but not yet catastrophic. The pace this year has accelerated: in June stablecoins lost $7.7 billion — the largest monthly drop since May 2022 — and by Aug 2 total supply was about $307.6 billion, meaning the market is now smaller by more than $27 billion. Earlier, in early October, 30-day fresh capital (including ETFs and stablecoins) was estimated at about $4.9 billion, supporting the market then; now inflows have flipped to outflows. One caveat: a similar drop from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 later reversed over several months, so current shrinkage is not necessarily irreversible.

I believe that until stablecoin supply stabilizes, any Bitcoin bounces will be short-lived because there will be fewer buyers. A strong dollar and expectations of a 25-bp Fed hike on Dec 9 make US Treasuries more attractive to liquidity that previously sat in stablecoins, creating competition for capital.

Bitcoin

Price trades in a narrow range from 73,400 to 73,800, and the plan is built around two mirrored directions with full breakout and rejection scenarios. For buy positions, I consider a break above 73,800 with a target of 74,500 — a sensible level to take profit and then consider a short on the pullback — provided price stays above the 50-day moving average and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below 73,400 proves false and price returns to the range, buying is possible, with an initial target of 73,800 and a secondary target of 74,500.

For selling, the signal is a confirmed close below 73,400 with a target of 73,000, provided the 50-day MA is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 73,800 fails to hold and price returns to the range, a short is possible, targeting 73,400 first and then 73,000.

Ether

The logic fully mirrors Bitcoin on its own price scale; the working range is 2,035–2,049. Buy on a break above 2,049, targeting 2,068, where it makes sense to take profit and consider a short on the pullback—provided price is above the 50-day MA and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero. If a break below 2,035 proves false and price reclaims the range, buying is acceptable with targets at 2,049 and then 2,068.

Selling is possible after a confirmed close below 2,035, targeting 2,009, provided the 50-day MA is above price, and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero. If a break above 2,049 fails to hold and price returns to the range, consider a short position to 2,035 and then 2,009. Both indicators serve only as filters to cut false moves, not as standalone triggers to enter early, and decisions are made only after price confirms the specified levels.

Nvidia shares plunged -8.61% in after-hours trading on November 11, 2026, falling to $158.78. The stock had closed the regular session up +2.87% at $173.73 following a two-day, 10% slide toward spring lows. The evening sell-off was triggered by reports from The Wall Street Journal that the board of directors is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang. Since its October peak of $243.37, the stock has dropped by a third, reducing the corporation's market value to $4.2 trillion.

The emergency board meeting was prompted by a New York Times report revealing a second extramarital affair involving the chief executive. Journalists uncovered that Huang had been in an intimate relationship with Kimberly Powell, Nvidia's Vice President of Healthcare. Powell has worked at the corporation since 2008 and reports directly to the CEO. In March 2026, eyewitnesses photographed the pair at a hotel during a corporate conference, after which the company's security team required the witnesses to sign non-disclosure agreements.

This latest revelation compounded an ongoing scandal surrounding Huang's relationship with former Megaspeed senior executive Alice Huang, whom U.S. intelligence agencies suspect of passing classified information to Chinese authorities. According to The Information, these ties helped facilitate the shipment of $7.5 billion worth of Nvidia computing chips to China in circumvention of U.S. export bans. On Sunday, the head of the corporation publicly apologized to his family and employees for violating business ethics.

Nvidia's independent directors have retained the law firm Wachtell Lipton and former federal prosecutor Joon Kim to conduct an internal investigation. Amid the governance crisis, investment bank Baird downgraded the stock to Neutral and slashed its price target—the share price analysts expect in a year—from $500 to $200. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America removed the chipmaker's stock from their priority investment lists, while analysts at Citi and Wells Fargo cut their price forecasts to $285 and $300, respectively.

Key Pressure Factors

Five key risk factors are weighing on Nvidia's share price and business stability:

•Threat of Jensen Huang's abrupt departure The company's founder has led the business for 33 years and personally built relationships with its largest server hardware customers. The exit of its longtime leader would create a management vacuum. According to Wedbush analysts, without Huang, the corporation's market value could shrink by another 30%. Moreover, the CEO holds only a 3.6% stake without controlling voting rights, leaving him unable to block a board decision.

•U.S. Congressional investigations and threat of sanctions American lawmakers have demanded that Nvidia's leadership submit a report on the $7.5 billion processor shipments to China and are preparing a subpoena to summon Huang to a House of Representatives hearing on November 18. Confirmation of export control violations exposes the company to heavy fines and bans on foreign contracts.

•Shareholder class-action lawsuits and loss of institutional trust Investors have already filed a class-action lawsuit against the corporation and its leadership for concealing a conflict of interest. An office romance with a direct subordinate violates the internal corporate governance code and is forcing pension funds to reduce their Nvidia holdings.

•Capital rotation into direct competitors While Nvidia shares declined, stock in chipmaker AMD rose 13%, and the semiconductor industry index gained 7% following a strong earnings report from cloud provider CoreWeave. Major buyers of server capacity are distributing orders across different suppliers to reduce dependence on the scandal-embroiled company.

•Tight monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve Fresh consumer inflation data has reinforced expectations of further benchmark interest rate hikes by the U.S. central bank. Expensive credit reduces the appeal of tech stocks and restricts the inflow of available capital into the stock market.

Outlook

Our outlook for Nvidia's stock performance remains cautious and accounts for governance risks not priced into the optimistic estimates of investment banks. In the coming trading sessions, shares will remain under selling pressure. Key catalysts will be the board's decision on Jensen Huang's fate and the release of quarterly financial results on November 17, 2026.

Even with strong third-quarter financial results, the corporate crisis will overshadow operational achievements. If the board announces the founder's departure, the stock will break below the $158 support level—a price mark where buyers previously halted declines—and head toward spring lows in the $140–$150 range per share. If Huang remains in his post under external oversight, the stock will get a temporary reprieve, though it will be unable to hold above the $185 mark until Congressional inquiries conclude.

Through the end of 2026, Nvidia shares will enter a phase of sharp price swings within a $145–$180 trading range. The November 18 House briefing and ongoing legal investigation will regularly trigger waves of sell-offs. Investors are advised to refrain from buying the current dip and wait for the board's official decision and the response from U.S. regulators.

The main reason is a recovery of flows from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia told OPEC its October production rose 26%, to one of the highest monthly levels in recent years, and Iraq reported a new wartime production record. At the end of October, Gulf deliveries were about 80% of prewar levels; now they have approached the prior norm. Rising output is already visible in the physical market: price differentials are weakening, and with limited demand the first signs of a surplus are appearing.

But the recovery relies on workarounds rather than secure sea routes. Saudi Arabia is routing part of its crude via the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, and ship-to-ship transshipments are being used. Note that this pipeline was attacked near Medina on November 9, and Iranian strikes on tankers continue. Many experts therefore believe the market will retain a geopolitical premium while the parties remain far from an agreement.

Progress in talks is limited, even though the conflict has cooled somewhat. Iran will not remove "a single enriched nuclear material" from the country, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, told Al Mayadeen — and that is one of the US's key conditions for talks. Washington and Tehran also differ on frozen assets and the US maritime blockade. Traders hope a Democratic victory in the midterms will bring the end of the conflict closer. On November 9, Donald Trump said no new strikes were needed, while Marco Rubio called Iran's terms unacceptable — the tone softened, but positions remain far apart.

The diesel market is moving in the opposite direction. Ukrainian drones have again struck Russian refineries; Energy Aspects reports at least seven facilities were hit since late October, ending a brief pause in attacks and worsening the global diesel shortage. Recall US distillate inventories fell below 100 million barrels for the first time since 2003, and the EIA forecasts retail diesel at $5.03 per gallon. Official US inventory data are due this evening, and the IEA report follows on Friday.

All this means crude and refined products are diverging. I expect Brent to test $90 in the coming days, and without a deal with Iran, the downside floor will likely be near $85, while diesel will fall more slowly than crude. Upside can return on a breakdown in talks, new strikes on infrastructure, or attacks on tankers; sustained declines require confirmed reopening of Hormuz and rising inventories.

On the technical side, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $87. That would allow targeting $89, above which a breakout will be difficult. The most distant target is $92. On a drop, bears will try to seize $84; if they succeed, a range breakout would hit bulls hard and push oil to an $81 low with the prospect of moving to $78.

The reason is that US inflation remains persistent and Federal Reserve officials are taking a hawkish tone. Traders have fully priced a 25-bp hike in December, and some allow for a 50-bp step. After Waller's speech, the odds of a US rate increase rose to 96%. "The October inflation report is worrying, on the verge of alarming," said Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee. Recall that a month earlier the Fed left rates at 3.75–4.00% on a 10–2 vote, with two officials voting for a hike.

Rising rates pressure gold through two channels. Two-year Treasury yields, which are particularly sensitive to rate expectations, rose about 25 basis points this week alone, including a 17-bp jump on Tuesday. Gold pays no yield, so higher interest rates make it less attractive, and a stronger US dollar makes the metal more expensive for most buyers.

Central-bank purchases and safe-haven demand still provide support, but they are not strong enough to offset rising rates.

Oil acts in the opposite direction in this chain. Brent fell from $116 on October 30 to roughly $91, and the November 9 oil decline supported gold by reducing inflation risks. However, after October's CPI — which beat forecasts for the third month in a row — the market is again focused on the Fed rather than commodities. As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains a risk, the geopolitical premium will prevent energy prices from collapsing fast, so inflationary pressure will persist.

The next test is Friday's US producer-price index (PPI). Many experts see a risk of gold falling to $3,870, and an unexpected PPI rise could extend the metals' pullback.

All this indicates gold is under pressure while rates and the dollar rise. I believe the metal will remain below $4,000 until the PPI release and risks retesting the early-November low around $3,954. A hot PPI would open the way to $3,849, while a soft report would produce only a rebound; returning above $4,062 in the coming days looks unlikely.

On the technical side, buyers need to take the nearest resistance at $4,001. That would set up a target of $4,062, above which a breakout will be difficult. The most distant target is the $4,140 area. On a decline, bears will try to seize control of $3,954. If they succeed, a range breakout would deal a serious blow to bull positions and push gold toward a $3,906 low with the prospect of moving to $3,849.

According to reports, the company and an outside adviser are vetting potential successors to Jensen Huang after allegations of multiple extramarital relationships, one reportedly involving a woman suspected of spying for China. Recall that on November 9, the board already opened an independent investigation, with shares closing down 4.3% at the start of the week. Discussion has shifted from reputation to the question of whether the company can operate without its CEO.

The blow came just as the market was trying to recover. On Wednesday, US stocks rallied: CoreWeave jumped by 25% after a strong outlook, OpenAI reported quarterly revenue of $10 billion, and Anthropic's IPO demand was reportedly several times oversubscribed. The Nasdaq 100 added 2.3%, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.3%. Note that a week earlier, the tech sector crashed on fears of tougher AI oversight after Democrats' midterm wins, when the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 6.4% in a single day. Many analysts argue that Nvidia's role in funding the ecosystem makes a leadership change a systemic risk for the entire AI chain.

The market is also pressured by expectations of tighter Fed policy. The US dollar index remains elevated after Wednesday's 18-month high as traders fully price in a 25-bp hike in December and assign a small chance to a 50-bp move. For comparison, on November 9, the odds of a December hike were around 78.8%, rising to 96.3% after Waller's speech. Several commentators note that a 50-bp step or an acceleration to more frequent hikes has become a realistic possibility. After the US holiday break, long-dated Treasuries moved: the 30-year yield fell by 2 bps to 5.33%, while the 10-year sits near 4.99% versus 4.87% earlier in the week. The yen trades near 160 per dollar, and the Indonesian rupiah hit a record low, prompting intervention by the central bank.

Ahead lie several events that could set the tone. Friday brings US producer prices after October's CPI beat. Anthropic will price its IPO on November 18, with trading to start on November 19, and the Fed announces its interest rate decision on December 9.

In the Middle East, tensions between Iran and the US remain muted, and regional output is rising, so oil is moving toward a two-month low. Brent is trading below $92 after a 1.4% rise on Wednesday, versus roughly $116 on October 30. Gold has fallen again today, extending Wednesday's losses following hot US inflation and hawkish Fed comments. Currently, the metal is trading below $4,100, compared to $4,122 on Monday.

All this suggests that the market has entered a phase where strong AI headlines no longer offset governance risk. I expect pressure on the tech sector to persist at least until the Nvidia situation is resolved. Meanwhile, safe-haven demand for bonds will likely be temporary while the Fed prepares to tighten. Near-term tests are US PPI data and the Anthropic IPO. If neither supports sentiment, indices are likely to fall further, with the dollar remaining near recent highs.

As for S&P 500 technicals, today's main task for buyers is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,607. That would confirm upside momentum and open the way toward $7,633. Equally important for bulls is control above $7,656, which would reinforce buying positions. On any downside move amid falling risk appetite, buyers must defend around $7,574. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,544 and open the path to $7,518.

The price test at 159.20 occurred after the MACD indicator had already moved well above the zero line, limiting the pair's upside potential. For that reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed a good move higher.

Over two days, the pair moved roughly from 158 to nearly 160. The trigger was US data: US inflation exceeded forecasts for the third month in a row, and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials raised expectations that rates will be raised again in December. Traders also began pricing in a small chance of a 50-bp step. The rate gap between the US and Japan is widening again, and the yen has already lost some of the safe-haven demand that appeared during recent equity-market turbulence.

At the same time, Japanese data support expectations of a Bank of Japan hike. Producer prices rose 7.1% y/y in October, up from 6.8% a month earlier and above forecasts of a slowdown; month-on-month, they rose 0.7%, the fastest since May. Swap markets now price about an 82% chance of a BOJ hike at the December 18 meeting. Price rises were led by oil and related products—in October, oil traded above $100/bbl, and many companies revised prices that month. For a country heavily dependent on imports of oil, raw materials and food, a weak yen only adds to cost-of-living pressure. Recall that Kazuo Ueda has left the door open for further hikes, but timing beyond December remains uncertain as the policy rate approaches neutral.

Recent media reports say Japanese authorities are increasingly concerned about the speed and disorderly nature of the yen's move. Many traders expect warnings about the yen to grow louder, but threats alone are unlikely to be enough. The dollar remains very strong on Fed expectations, and even if the BOJ accelerates hikes, it will be hard to outpace the US regulator. Without actual intervention, verbal action may only produce a brief pause, and USD/JPY remains at risk of breaking above 160.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 159.81 (green line on the chart) is reached, with a target of rising to 160.23 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.23, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move away from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 159.60 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 159.81 and 160.23.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 159.60 level is breached (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers is 159.23, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Sellers can return at any moment — only a hint from the central bank is needed. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 159.81 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 159.60 and 159.23.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

The price test at 1.3313 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair fell toward the target area of 1.3283.

The pound continued its active decline against the dollar yesterday, even though no UK data were released and the market still expects a Bank of England rate hike. Dollar buyers proved more eager: the sharp rise in US bond yields and a 96% probability of a December Federal Reserve hike look far more attractive to them than sterling's prospects.

Today, the pound will receive several important UK indicators in the first half of the day, and comparing them with past months helps explain a lot. Q3 GDP is forecast at 0.7% after 0.5% in the prior period, and year-on-year growth is expected at 1.9% versus 1.4%. That looks decent, but the monthly picture is much less optimistic. GDP rose 0.4% in July, slowed to 0.1% in August, and September is forecast to fall 0.1% — so momentum is weakening, and the quarterly result largely reflects what has already happened.

The industrial picture shows an even clearer reversal. In mid-October, the August data surprised to the upside: industrial production rose 0.8% vs an expected -0.1%, manufacturing added 1.2% after +0.3%, and the goods trade deficit narrowed to £18.0bn from £19.3bn. Sterling benefited from those figures then. Now forecasts point the other way: industrial production -0.3%, manufacturing -0.5%, and the goods deficit widening back to £19.2bn — meaning much of the August improvement may be unwound. Add the RICS house-price balance, which came out at -36% vs expected -33% and -32% previously, and the picture is more bearish.

This matters for the BoE because the rate is already at 4.00%, and Andrew Bailey on November 5 said a second hike is more likely than not; the market prices December roughly 50/50. Weak data will make that step less certain, while US yields and a 96% Fed-hike probability support the dollar. I believe that if weak forecasts are confirmed, pressure on the pound will return quickly, and traders should use that.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point around 1.3267 (green line on the chart) is reached, targeting a rise to 1.3294 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3294, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Expect the pound to rise today only after strong reports. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3252 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3267 and 1.3294.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3252 level is breached (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3226, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Bad news will restore pressure on the pound. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3267 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3252 and 1.3226.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.

The price test at 1.1134 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving down from the zero line, confirming a good entry point to sell the euro. As a result, the pair fell by more than 40 pips.

The euro continued to fall against the dollar, although yesterday's euro-area data were quite acceptable; US data nevertheless carried more weight. Final German inflation data confirmed a 2.8% year-on-year rise in October after 3.3% in September and 2.9% in August, while prices fell 0.2% month-on-month after a 0.6% rise in September. The harmonized index also came in at 2.8% year-on-year. Destatis head Ruth Brand linked high inflation to energy prices. It noted that the fuel discount introduced in early October likely slightly restrained price growth, so part of the slowdown may be temporary. Italy's industrial production rose 1.2% month-on-month in September, beating the 0.7% forecast and recovering from a 1.2% decline the prior month. For context, Eurostat's preliminary flash showed euro-area inflation at 4.0% in October versus 3.8% in September, with core at 2.5%, supporting expectations the European Central Bank will raise rates to 2.75% on December 17.

Today, the absence of major euro-area data in the first half will shift attention to the ECB Economic Bulletin, and its tone will determine whether the euro can at least modestly recover after the recent fall. If the central bank confirms a hawkish stance, demand for the single currency will rise because the market already prices a 2.75% deposit rate on December 17. But support will likely be limited, since the dollar rests on Federal Reserve-hike expectations—the probability of a December move was assessed at 96.3% after Waller's remarks.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios to Buy

Scenario No. 1: Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1092 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1121. At 1.1121, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pip move from the entry point. Expect euro strength today only after good data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1073 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.1092 and 1.1121.

Scenarios to Sell

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1073 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1042, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move away from the level). Pressure on the pair will return if data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.1092 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1073 and 1.1042.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further upside above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line – the suggested price where you can place a Take Profit or manually lock in gains, since further downside below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for an intraday trader from the start.