At the moment, it is difficult to believe in such a significant decline of the euro, but the first quarter of 2026 demonstrated that geopolitics can produce dramatic market shifts and reverse established trends.

On the lower time frame, I can identify a classic three-wave corrective upward structure. Following its completion, a new downward trend segment began to develop, which logically should take the form of an impulsive structure. If this assumption is correct, we should expect the formation of a five-wave structure within wave C of the higher degree, with targets below the 1.1400 level.

Are there fundamental reasons to expect such a strong strengthening of the U.S. dollar? In my opinion, not at this stage. Last week showed that Tehran and Washington continue negotiations, which could theoretically lead to a successful outcome. As long as the possibility of an agreement remains, it will be difficult for the dollar to continue strengthening.

The EUR/USD pair remained unchanged throughout Friday, while volatility once again remained limited. Thursday was a much more active trading day, but it also featured a greater number of significant events.

Today, only Germany's inflation and unemployment reports deserve attention, although the market largely ignored both releases. Nevertheless, I would like to focus on the Consumer Price Index, as it does not provide particularly positive implications for the euro.

The preliminary inflation reading for May came in at 2.6%, which was 0.3 percentage points lower than in April on an annual basis and also 0.3 percentage points below market expectations. The 2.6% figure suggests that inflation is not merely slowing—it is gradually moving toward the ECB's target level.

Of course, this is only a preliminary estimate rather than the final May reading. Furthermore, it reflects data from only one Eurozone country. However, Germany has the largest economy in the bloc, making its economic indicators particularly important.

If inflation is slowing in Germany, it may also be slowing across the Eurozone. If inflation is indeed easing in the Eurozone, the ECB may have less urgency to proceed with monetary policy tightening in June.

It is worth recalling that only yesterday market participants expected the ECB to be the only major central bank likely to tighten policy next month. In the United Kingdom, inflation slowed in April, while the Federal Reserve currently has little room to raise interest rates and continues to maintain a wait-and-see approach.

As a result, the market had been positioning for tighter policy in the Eurozone. However, the probability of this scenario has now declined significantly, which could create additional pressure on the euro.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the shorter term it remains within a corrective structure.

The corrective a-b-c wave pattern appears complete. Therefore, wave 3 or wave c continues to develop and may form part of a larger wave C structure. The entire wave C (if the current wave count is correct) could eventually extend well below the 1.1400 level.

However, such a scenario would require strong geopolitical support. Otherwise, the current downward wave sequence could take the form of an a-b-c correction and conclude near the 1.1578 level.

On the higher time frame, an upward trend segment remains visible, followed by the development of a corrective wave structure. In the near term, wave C is expected to form with targets near 1.1352, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

Once the A-B-C structure is complete, a new long-term upward trend may begin to develop.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to interpret. Complex structures are difficult to trade and frequently undergo revisions.
2. If there is no confidence in what the market is doing, it is better to stay out of the market.
3. Absolute certainty regarding market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

Therefore, I am still waiting for a new buy signal to form within Imbalance 13. However, the euro's near-term outlook will depend less on technical analysis and trading signals than on geopolitics, which now appears to change almost daily. Traders have grown tired of these constant shifts. As a result, over the past two weeks, the market has shown little reaction to either Trump's statements or news coming from the Middle East.

Throughout last week and the beginning of this week, multiple reports suggested that an agreement between Iran and the United States was close to being reached. However, on Tuesday, the United States launched new strikes against southern Iran, and on Thursday, Iran and the United States exchanged attacks. Under these circumstances, a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran appears difficult to envision at the moment.

Nevertheless, the market has not yet abandoned expectations for negotiations and a potential agreement. Otherwise, the U.S. dollar would have continued to strengthen. It should be acknowledged that despite the recurring military actions by both sides, negotiations officially remain ongoing. Despite Donald Trump's new threats, Iran has not withdrawn from diplomatic contacts. Therefore, the possibility of peace remains. The only question is how long the market is willing to wait.

Under the current circumstances, traders are left waiting either for another reaction from Imbalance 13—which remains the last bullish pattern within the current bullish impulse—or for its invalidation. If the recent decline is viewed as a corrective pullback, it could very well conclude within Imbalance 13. However, without geopolitical support, bulls will find it difficult to launch a new advance.

If the current move is instead interpreted as the beginning of a new bearish trend, traders should expect negotiations to fail, the conflict to intensify again, and a signal to emerge within Imbalance 15. In my view, the first scenario remains more likely.

I must once again emphasize that the U.S. dollar's rally between January and March was driven entirely by geopolitical developments. As soon as the United States and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, bears immediately retreated, and for more than a month bulls dominated the market.

At present, the chances of reaching a formal agreement are once again declining. The market remains highly skeptical of any reports suggesting that the conflict will end soon or that a deal between Iran and the United States is imminent. To be more precise, the agreement will probably be signed eventually. However, "eventually" is not the kind of timeline that supports an active rally in EUR/USD.

The overall technical picture remains straightforward. The bullish trend is still intact but urgently requires support. Ideally, that support would come from geopolitics, with Iran and the United States at least signing a framework agreement and then continuing discussions regarding Iran's nuclear program. Without a positive news backdrop, bulls will struggle to launch a new advance.

Friday's economic data offered little of interest to traders. Germany's unemployment report released in the morning showed a decline in the unemployment rate from 6.4% to 6.3%, while the inflation report published several hours later showed a slowdown from 2.9% to 2.6% in May. Neither report triggered any meaningful market reaction.

There remain numerous reasons for bulls to stay active in 2026, and the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has not diminished them. Structurally and fundamentally, the policies pursued by Trump—which contributed to the dollar's substantial decline last year—have not changed.

Over the coming months, the U.S. dollar may occasionally strengthen amid risk-off flows, but this factor requires a continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for EUR/USD. The dollar has received temporary support from the market, but what will provide bears with sufficient momentum over the long term?

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Retail Sales (06:00 UTC).
• Eurozone – Unemployment Rate (09:00 UTC).
• United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 1 contains three scheduled releases, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI standing out as the most important. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of Monday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

In my view, the pair remains in the process of forming a bullish trend. The news backdrop changed dramatically three months ago, but the trend itself cannot yet be considered invalidated or completed. Therefore, bulls may resume their advance in the near term if they receive even modest support from geopolitical developments.

Traders previously had opportunities to open long positions based on the signal from Imbalance 12 and the signal generated by the Order Block. The upward movement may resume from Imbalance 13 and extend toward this year's highs.

At this stage, however, it is crucial for bulls to maintain control of the market. For the euro to continue advancing without significant obstacles, the conflict in the Middle East must move toward a lasting peace. A breakdown in negotiations, rejection of the framework agreement by either side, or another ceasefire violation could strengthen bearish pressure.

For now, bulls still lack sufficient support for a full-scale advance. The buying zone remains at 1.1605–1.1649.

The pound's rise over the past week and a half was driven by growing market optimism regarding the conclusion of a framework agreement between Iran and the United States. However, this week, the chances of reaching an agreement in the near term have once again declined sharply, while the likelihood of the conflict continuing and negotiations failing has increased significantly. As a result, bears have regained short-term support, which could easily become long-term support given the latest developments coming from the Middle East.

And the news flow has been far from encouraging. This week, Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Iran has been holding secret negotiations with Oman regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz and the introduction of transit fees for vessels passing through it. I cannot verify the accuracy of this information, but Scott Bessent threatened Oman with severe sanctions, while Donald Trump threatened military action.

The situation surrounding a resolution of the Middle East conflict is gradually moving forward, yet traders remain concerned that the pendulum could swing back toward escalation at any moment. In fact, they did not have to wait long. This week, the United States carried out two missile strikes against Iranian targets, while Iran responded with a strike on a U.S. military base in Kuwait.

One can only hope that these developments will not bring negotiations to an end and that the agreement—which the parties reportedly have already largely agreed upon—will not be abandoned. So far this week, only pessimistic headlines have emerged.

In my view, the trend remains bullish despite the pair's sharp declines earlier this year. At present, the ceasefire in the Middle East remains fragile, but it is still holding and could even be extended by at least another 60 days if Tehran and Washington sign a framework agreement.

However, the Strait of Hormuz remains under a dual blockade, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and any assessment of progress in negotiations relies primarily on statements from Donald Trump. The situation continues to fluctuate between improvement and deterioration. For now, the market still retains some confidence that an agreement will eventually be reached, but that confidence is not unlimited, and the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz may, at the very least, complicate further negotiations.

The current technical picture is as follows. Bullish Imbalance 18 generated a price reaction, while Bearish Imbalance 19 is likely to be invalidated. Therefore, the technical structure fully supports further gains in the pound. The only factor that remains to be monitored closely is geopolitics, allowing traders to exit long positions in a timely manner should negotiations once again reach a deadlock and the framework agreement remain "95% agreed" without being finalized.

The economic news background on Friday was absent. No significant economic or geopolitical developments were reported throughout the day.

In the United States, the overall fundamental backdrop continues to suggest that, from a long-term perspective, little supports a sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar. The conflict between Iran and the United States has changed very little in that regard. Geopolitical tensions temporarily reminded investors of the dollar's safe-haven status over the past two months, but the broader outlook for the U.S. currency remains challenging.

The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, the economy is moving closer to recession, and the Federal Reserve has little room to tighten monetary policy in 2026. In addition, four major protest movements against Donald Trump have already taken place across the country. Furthermore, Jerome Powell's eventual departure could create additional pressure on the dollar if the FOMC adopts a more dovish stance under Kevin Warsh.

From a purely economic perspective, I see no compelling reasons for a sustained rise in the U.S. dollar.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for June 1 contains one event that can be considered important. The economic backdrop may influence market sentiment during the second half of Monday's trading session.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

The long-term outlook for the pound remains bullish. The Three Drives Pattern warned traders of the beginning of the upward move. Since then, three bullish patterns and three bullish trading signals have formed, all of which traders could have utilized.

Two weeks ago, geopolitical developments disrupted the bulls' previously favorable outlook, yet they managed to retain control and generated a new bullish signal within Bullish Imbalance 18. If geopolitical developments remain supportive, the upward trend is likely to continue.

My target for the pound remains the 2026 high at 1.3867, while the nearest target is 1.3656. At present, there are no grounds for considering a bearish trend. The only bearish imbalance is on the verge of invalidation. Naturally, bearish patterns cannot form within a clearly bullish market structure.

The US stock market is finishing May on a high note. The S&P500 has settled above 7,560.00, extending its winning streak to nine consecutive weeks. Investors are showing remarkable resilience despite renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed's obvious hawkish pivot. Technical indicators, however, have been in the oversold zone for more than a week and have begun to flash warning signs of a possible correction.

Fundamental backdrop: ignoring risks

The market continues to discount geopolitical uncertainty, betting on diplomacy. According to Axios, the US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement on a 60-day ceasefire. That sparked a fresh wave of buying as investors hope the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and energy markets will stabilize.

The euphoria is tempered by the fact that the deal still requires final approval from US President Donald Trump, who has asked for "a few days" to consider it. Negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and shipping controls remain stalled, and military escalation in the region continues.

While geopolitics creates "noise," the key factor limiting more aggressive gains remains monetary policy. Inflation data published this week showed core PCE accelerating to 3.3%.

That has reinforced expectations that the Fed not only will refrain from cutting rates but could move to raise them. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate hike before the end of 2026 is roughly 50%.

Economists warn that the "hot" US jobs data (Nonfarm Payrolls) due next week could be the catalyst for an even more hawkish Fed shift.

From a technical standpoint, the uptrend remains intact. The nearest target is 7,600.00.

Market analysts note, however, that the number of stocks participation in the rally is shrinking. Only about 60% of S&P500 companies trade above their 200-day moving averages (historical norm — 73%). Only 33% of stocks are outperforming the index this year, approaching extremely low levels.

As noted, technical indicators are in overbought territory after eight weeks of consecutive gains, signaling an overheated market.

Levels to watch

• Resistance: 7,600.00–7,615.00. A break above would open the way to 7,700.00.
• Support: 7,560.00–7,490.00 (200 EMA on the 1-hour chart).
• A loss of 7,500.00 would increase downward pressure toward 7,285.00–7,200.00.

Earnings season

The quarterly earnings season is virtually over, and results have beaten expectations. S&P500 Q1 EPS came in at 80 versus an expected 70. That, in theory, gives the index room to rise another 800–1,000 points, economists say. The Broadcom (AVGO) report on Wednesday will be the main test for the semiconductor sector, which has been a leader in the rally (+80% from March lows).

Key events next week

The S&P500 continues to climb, showing surprising resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty. Corporate earnings, which have significantly exceeded expectations, remain the primary driver. However, technical indicators point to an overheated market. The market is pricing in a peace agreement that has not yet been signed.

The key resistance zone is 7,600.00; a break above would clear the way to 7,700.00. Investors should remain cautious. The coming days will be decisive for the market's direction.

Donald Trump called on social media for Congress to pass a "Clarity Act" as soon as possible to regulate cryptocurrencies and once again called America the crypto capital of the world. While US stocks respond sharply to the president's messages and the so-called "Trump put," Bitcoin prefers to stay aloof.

Bitcoin volatility dynamics

Volatility has dropped to nine?month lows, reducing investor interest in the digital asset. Previously, high volatility meant BTC/USD was bought quickly — it rose, then was bought again because it had risen. That produced a high correlation with US stock indices, which now no longer exists.

If those old links still held, record S&P 500 highs could have pulled the cryptocurrency out of the abyss. Unfortunately, help from US stocks is no longer to be expected.

BTC/USD plunge is being driven by the longest ever outflow from specialized ETFs. Investors have been withdrawing money for nine trading days, the worst losing streak since these financial instruments launched in January 2024. As a result, May outflows totaled $2.1 billion, the largest since November.

Capital flows into bitcoin ETFs

According to Glassnode, the average buy price of Bitcoin over the past 155 days was $78,000. BTC/USD is currently trading well below that level, and if the decline continues, many bulls may lose patience and begin to liquidate their holdings, triggering an avalanche move to the downside.

It's not clear what straw Bitcoin can cling to. It's not being saved by Donald Trump's support, nor by record highs in US equity indices, nor by investors' faith in de-escalation in the Middle East. Will Congress passing the Clarity Act help? I doubt it — the banking lobby will not allow paying interest on stablecoin holdings, which would strip banks of a significant portion of their funding.

Technically, the daily chart for BTC/USD shows a completed 1-2-3 reversal pattern. Short positions opened from $80,650 and added below $77,500 should be held, with periodic re-entries to add new shorts. Pivot targets for the short trade are $68,200 and $60,000.

Gold is trading around $4,509, above the 21-day SMA, and has staged a strong technical rebound after hitting the 6/8 Murray level around $4,375.

According to the H4 chart, gold is currently within a downtrend channel. From the opening of Monday's session through yesterday, gold fell from its high of $4,585 to a low of $4,362. From this sharp decline, gold rebounded to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and is now facing strong resistance at the upper band of the downtrend channel.

If, in the coming hours, gold breaks out and consolidates above the downtrend channel and above $4,520, this could be considered a buy signal, with targets at the 200 EMA around $4,630 and potentially even reaching the 7/8 Murray level around $4,687.

If gold continues its rally and consolidates above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it is likely to reach the 100% level and even the 161% level around $4,725 in the coming days.

Given that gold is within the downtrend channel, if it falls below $4,530 in the coming hours, the outlook could turn negative, and gold could resume its bearish cycle, potentially extending its fall until it reaches $4,375.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell gold below $4,500 with targets at $4,478 around the 21 SMA and at $4,375, or buy above $4,505.

The euro is trading with upside potential around 1.1642, consolidating above the 21-day SMA, below the 200-day EMA, and below the downtrend channel formed since May 8.

The euro could continue its rise in the coming hours, but it would need to decisively break out of the downtrend channel, break above the 200 EMA, and consolidate above 1.1667 for the outlook to remain positive.

If the euro reaches the resistance level at 1.1667 and fails to consolidate above this zone, it could be considered a signal to sell in the coming days, with targets until EUR/USD reaches the 3/8 Murray level again around 1.1596. The instrument is even expected to reach the psychological level of 1.1500.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. To confirm the upward move, we should wait for the euro to consolidate above 1.1667 to continue buying, with targets at 1.1718 and finally at the 5/8 Murray level around 1.1840.

Given that the euro is struggling to continue rising and is showing signs of exhaustion on the H4 chart, it is likely that there will be a technical correction toward 1.1596 in the coming hours before resuming its uptrend. Hence, a technical rebound could occur.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell the euro below the downtrend channel with targets at 1.1596 and 1.1532.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30) is trading around 50,783, above the 21-day SMA and within a downtrend channel that has been forming since May 24, with upside potential in the coming days.

The DJ30 is likely to continue rising if it consolidates above 50,781 and could reach the +2/8 Murray line around 51,562. This zone represents a strong level of extremely overbought conditions, so a technical correction could occur when the price reaches this zone.

Conversely, if the Dow Jones falls below the 21 SMA at 50,712, we could expect a continuation of the downward movement, and it could reach the psychological level of 50,000 in the coming days—it could even sink to the 200 EMA around 49,609.

The Eagle indicator has reached overbought levels. So, technically, on the H4 chart, we observe that the market is showing signs of exhaustion. A consolidation below 50,780 could occur, enabling a drop in the coming days toward 50,000 or 49,600.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell below the 21 SMA in the event that the DJ30 index pulls back and consolidates below this level, with targets at 50,320 and 50,000 points.

The Nasdaq 100 Industrial Index is trading with a bullish bias and consolidating after rebounding when it reached the 3/8 Murray level around 29,687. The NQ100 is showing a positive signal and is likely to continue rising in the coming days until it reaches the upper band of the uptrend channel around 30,660 points.

On the H4 chart, we can observe the formation of a double top pattern. If this pattern is confirmed, the index should fall below 30,350 points, then it could reach the 21 SMA around 30,000 points and might even reach the 3/8 Murray line around 29,687.

A drop below the consolidation zone or current levels around 30,260 could signal the start of a new bearish sequence, but for that to happen, we would need to see a decisive break below the uptrend channel formed since May 19, with potential targets at 29, 687 and the 200 EMA located at 28,336.

The outlook for the Nasdaq 100 could turn negative if the price falls below the psychological level of 30,000 points; in that case, there could be a sharp acceleration toward the 2/8 Murray target at 28,125.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell, as the market is showing signs of exhaustion. However, we must exercise caution, as the Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. Therefore, a good strategy would be to wait for confirmation of a double top pattern or a pullback toward 30,660 before opening short positions.

Blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain recorded a transfer of 411.5 BTC (about $30.3 million) from Strategy to Coinbase Prime — an exchange wallet traditionally used to prepare assets for sale. Prediction market Polymarket reacted immediately: the probability that Strategy will sell Bitcoin before December 31, 2026, rose to 84%. This is not panic or rumor — it is the collective estimate of thousands of market participants putting real money on a specific outcome. It says that the image of Strategy as an eternal Bitcoin buyer is finally broken.

Michael Saylor himself gave a reason for this. Several times over recent months, he has hinted that the company will sell coins from time to time — not out of weakness, but as a tool to maximize BTC per share. The logic sounds reasonable: if selling part of the reserves allows buying back debt at a discount or increasing the number of Bitcoins per share, it is technically a Bitcoin-positive operation for shareholders. This was the scheme used in the recent $1.5 billion convertible bond buyback — the company paid $1.38 billion, saving about 8% and formally increasing BTC-per-share yield. But for the market, the point is simpler: a sale is a sale, and the world's largest corporate holder of 843,000 coins is now officially a seller.

The news arrives at a very bad moment. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs yesterday reached $733 million —the largest since January; Ethereum logged its twelfth losing day in a row. On top of that, geopolitical escalation in the Middle East continues to weigh on risk assets despite fresh progress in peace talks.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $74,700, which would open a direct path to $76,500, and from there, $78,300 is within reach; breaking above that level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. On a decline, I expect buyers at $72,900. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400. The furthest downside target is the $69,800 area.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,026 would open a direct path to $2,084. The furthest target is the high near $2,128; overcoming it would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $1,969. A move back below that area could quickly drop ETH toward $1,911. The furthest downside target is the $1,845 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

Transfers to an exchange wallet traditionally mean one thing: preparation for a sale. This is not a one-off operation but a gradual, methodical sell-off — the approach US authorities typically use to minimize market impact from large disposals. Small batches moved day after day create less volatility than a single large dump, but together they form a steady stream of supply.

The episode is particularly ironic given active congressional debates over creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Recall that the draft ARMA bill envisages that government-seized crypto assets should be placed into a reserve and held there for at least 20 years. Treasury Secretary Bessent previously confirmed the administration's policy: "first stop the sales, then replenish the reserve with confiscations." In practice, however, the government continues to quietly monetize seized assets while lawmakers argue the details of reserve legislation. Until ARMA is passed and signed, the executive branch retains full discretion over confiscated property.

For the market, this episode adds another source of pressure to an already gloomy picture. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $733 million in a single day — the largest since January. Strategy is moving Bitcoin to exchanges, and Polymarket prices the probability that the company will sell coins before year-end at 84%. BlackRock twice this week shifted hundreds of millions of dollars onto exchanges, and yesterday was no exception. Now the US government joins the list of sellers, disposing of confiscated assets in small lots. Sellers are multiplying while buyers dwindle.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $74,700, which would open a direct path to $76,500. From there, $78,300 is within reach; a break above that level would indicate attempts to resume the bull market. On a decline, I expect buyers at $72,900. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $71,400. The furthest downside target is the $69,800 area.

Ethereum

A clear close above $2,026 would open a direct path to $2,084. The furthest target is the high near $2,128; overcoming it would signal strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $1,969. A move back below that area could quickly drop ETH toward $1,911. The furthest downside target is the $1,845 area.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The price test at 159.26 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

In the near term, data on the U.S. goods trade balance and the Chicago PMI index are expected to be released. In addition, a speech by Michelle Bowman is scheduled. Statements by FOMC members, such as those expected from Michelle Bowman, provide financial market participants with valuable insights into regulators' assessment of the current economic situation and their future monetary policy plans amid the ongoing complex geopolitical environment.

Comments on inflation, employment, and economic growth may influence expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of changes in key U.S. interest rates. However, the main impact on the USD/JPY pair will come from news regarding progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at reaching a peace agreement. Any response from Trump to the proposal submitted by Tehran could trigger a sharp increase in market volatility.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

BUY SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at an entry point around 159.37 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 159.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.84, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). A rise in the pair today may occur in case of negative news regarding the agreement and strong U.S. economic data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.23 while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 159.37 and 159.84 can be expected.

SELL SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.23 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 158.95, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair today may return if weak economic data is released. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of 159.37 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.23 and 158.95 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and trading volumes are too large.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The second half of the day is expected to be information-rich, with a focus on macroeconomic data and statements from influential figures in the financial world. Traders will closely watch the U.S. goods trade balance report. These data traditionally have a noticeable impact on the U.S. dollar and overall investor sentiment, as they serve as an indicator of the competitiveness of U.S. goods in global markets and reflect import demand.

Another key event today is the release of the Chicago Business Activity Index (Chicago PMI). This indicator is considered one of the leading measures of manufacturing activity in one of the most important industrial regions of the United States.

Also scheduled today is a speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman. In a context where, due to instability in the Middle East, the market is trying to determine the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, every statement from FOMC officials becomes especially important. Michelle Bowman's remarks may help clarify her view on current economic conditions, inflation risks, and the outlook for interest rate changes.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

BUY SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: Today I plan to buy the pound at an entry point around 1.3424 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3455 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3455, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal). Pound strength today can only be expected on weak U.S. data. Important: before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3405 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3424 and 1.3455 can be expected.

SELL SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3405 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers is 1.3376, where I will exit short positions and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pound today may return if strong U.S. data is released. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3424 while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3405 and 1.3376 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making trading decisions. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and trading volumes are too large.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The price test at 1.1632 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

No notable activity occurred during the first half of the day, so we will now shift attention to the U.S. goods trade balance data, the Chicago PMI index, and the speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman. These macroeconomic indicators and Federal Reserve officials' remarks play a key role in shaping market expectations regarding future monetary policy, inflation trends, and consequently the U.S. dollar's direction.

The goods trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports. The Chicago PMI, also known as the Chicago Business Activity Index, is a leading indicator of manufacturing activity in one of the key industrial regions of the United States. An increase in this index typically signals accelerating economic growth and may be interpreted as a positive signal for the U.S. economy, potentially supporting the dollar toward the end of the week. A decline, in contrast, may indicate a slowdown in activity and put pressure on the national currency.

Bowman's remarks regarding inflation, employment, and economic growth will also influence market expectations regarding the timing and scale of interest rate hikes or cuts, which will directly affect the U.S. dollar's performance.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

BUY SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases may be considered at a price around 1.1657 (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1705. At 1.1705, I plan to exit the market and consider selling in the opposite direction, expecting a reversal of 30–35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected on the back of strong positive news. Important: before entering a buy trade, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1629 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1657 and 1.1705 can be expected.

SELL SIGNAL

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1629 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1589, where I will exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Pressure on the pair today may return if strong U.S. data is released. Important: before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1657 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1629 and 1.1589 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – projected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking area, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – trading decisions should consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions with caution. Before major fundamental data releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if proper risk management is not used and trading volumes are excessive.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

Volatility is expected to increase later in the day as traders focus on the release of the U.S. goods trade balance data. These figures traditionally influence the U.S. dollar and market sentiment, as they reflect the competitiveness of American products in global markets and overall import demand. Changes in the trade balance may signal either an overheating economy or a slowdown in business activity, which, in turn, could affect expectations regarding future Federal Reserve policy.

Another important indicator due for release today is the Chicago PMI. This index is one of the leading indicators of economic activity and reflects conditions in the manufacturing sector of one of the key industrial regions of the United States. A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity, while a reading below that level signals contraction.

Later in the day, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak. As the market attempts to determine the future path of U.S. monetary policy, every comment from FOMC officials takes on added significance. Michelle Bowman's remarks, particularly following yesterday's inflation data, which remained relatively moderate, may provide additional insight into her assessment of current economic conditions, inflation risks, and the outlook for interest rates.

If the economic data come in strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows little or no reaction to the releases, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• A breakout above 1.1650 may lead to a rise in the euro toward 1.1670 and 1.1698;
• A breakout below 1.1625 may lead to a decline in the euro toward 1.1585 and 1.1555;

For GBP/USD

• A breakout above 1.3435 may lead to a rise in the pound toward 1.3455 and 1.3493;
• A breakout below 1.3405 may lead to a decline in the pound toward 1.3370 and 1.3340;

For USD/JPY

• A breakout above 159.40 may lead to a rise in the dollar toward 159.60 and 160.00;
• A breakout below 159.15 may trigger dollar selling toward 158.83 and 158.53;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Fade/Reversal Trading) for the Second Half of the Day

For EUR/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.1659 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.1620 followed by a return above that level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3430 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3395 followed by a return above that level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 0.7175 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 0.7148 followed by a return above that level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for short positions after a false breakout above 1.3819 followed by a return below that level;
• I will look for long positions after a false breakout below 1.3795 followed by a return above that level.

On Friday, gold (XAU/USD) is attracting buyers for a second consecutive day, extending its recovery after falling to its lowest level since March 27 in the previous session. During the European trading session, the precious metal climbed to the $4,515 level, near the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

However, further upward potential appears limited as market participants await further developments regarding a possible peace agreement between the United States and Iran. According to Axios, citing two U.S. officials, the parties have agreed on a draft document extending the current ceasefire regime for another 60 days. This has eased concerns about prolonged disruptions to oil supplies in the region and has kept oil prices near one-month lows, thereby reducing expectations of tighter monetary policy.In addition, improving market sentiment is putting pressure on the U.S. dollar, which in turn is supporting demand for gold.At the same time, the proposed peace agreement still requires final approval from U.S. President Donald Trump. Moreover, investors remain skeptical about the prospects for resolving the three-month conflict, given the significant disagreements between the parties over Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of a renewed escalation continues to limit market optimism. This could help prevent further weakness in the U.S. dollar while also capping the upside potential for gold.

Additional caution among U.S. dollar sellers stems from accelerating inflation in the United States, which has reached its fastest pace in three years, largely driven by rising energy prices amid the Middle East conflict. According to data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 3.8% year-over-year in April, up from 3.5% in the previous month. The Core PCE measure, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, increased by 3.3%, in line with market expectations.

The release of these figures reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates elevated for longer to offset slowing economic activity. Preliminary estimates showed that U.S. GDP expanded by 1.6% on an annualized basis in the first quarter of 2026, below the initial estimate of 2.0%.

Nevertheless, market participants continue to allow for the possibility of further policy tightening. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 is currently estimated at around 50%. This limits investors' willingness to aggressively position for further U.S. dollar weakness or build substantial long positions in gold.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD showed resilience below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday and rebounded from that level. Oscillators remain in negative territory, indicating that bears still retain an advantage in the market. Prices also remain below the 50-day and 20-day SMAs, confirming the prevailing downward bias.

However, it is worth noting that gold has not fallen below the 200-day SMA, suggesting that bulls continue to defend this support area and retain a chance of regaining momentum.

Gold remains above the psychological $4500 level, attracting buyers for a second consecutive day.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD showed resilience below the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday and posted a solid rebound from that level. Accordingly, the broader upward trend remains intact; however, the lack of strong bullish follow-through calls for caution among buyers.

The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also below its neutral level but is pointing higher at around 43, indicating moderate momentum.

Prices remain below the 50-day and 20-day SMAs, confirming a moderately bearish bias. Gold is currently trading near the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is acting as immediate resistance. If this level is breached, the next obstacle will be the 14-day EMA near $4550.

The psychological $4500 level serves as support. Below this level, prices may find support around $4450, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4400. Additional support is located near the channel boundary at $4345. A decisive break below these levels would increase downward pressure and could pave the way for deeper losses.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The latest completed upward wave failed to break the previous high, while the latest downward wave failed to break the previous low. Therefore, the bearish trend remains intact. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls for an entire month, but that was followed by a period of fading hopes for a lasting peace. Bulls will only be able to launch a sustained advance if Iran and the United States sign an interim agreement and stop violating the terms of the ceasefire.

The market remained highly volatile on Thursday due to new geopolitical developments. Overnight, it became known that Iran and the United States had once again violated the terms of the ceasefire, while Donald Trump threatened strikes against Oman if it were to form a coalition with Iran aimed at controlling the Strait of Hormuz. These developments were clearly escalationary in nature, which supported demand for the U.S. dollar during the first half of the day.

However, during the second half of the day, Axios once again reported insider information suggesting that Tehran and Washington had nevertheless reached preliminary agreements to extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and had made sufficient progress toward signing a memorandum of understanding. As a result, it was the bears who retreated during the second half of the session.

The market continues to swing between these opposing narratives on a daily basis. At best, it simply ignores incoming and unverified information; at worst, as seen yesterday, it first plunges and then rallies sharply. Another exchange of fire could occur in the Middle East today, which would likely boost demand for the dollar again. By evening, Donald Trump may announce that an agreement with Iran is "just minutes away from being signed," and bulls would once again take control of the market.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1569 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1667. Market participants are in no hurry to open new positions or draw firm conclusions. At the current stage, I recommend focusing primarily on the hourly chart, as price movements have remained relatively subdued in recent weeks. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 9,249 Long positions and 15,936 Short positions. Over the course of seven weeks in February and March, the bulls' overwhelming advantage disappeared due to the conflict in Iran, while over the past eight weeks the situation has become more balanced amid the suspension of hostilities in the Middle East.

The total number of Long positions held by speculators currently stands at 233,000, while the number of Short positions amounts to 199,000. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

Overall, from a long-term perspective, major market participants continue to view the euro more favorably. Naturally, global developments of various kinds—which have been plentiful in recent years—continue to influence investor sentiment. At present, the market's attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict has merely been paused rather than resolved.

Therefore, in the near future, the euro and the U.S. dollar are likely to be driven not by Federal Reserve or ECB monetary policy, nor by economic data, but by developments in Iran.

News Calendar for the United States and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Unemployment Rate (07:55 UTC).
• Germany – Consumer Price Index (12:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for May 29 contains two scheduled releases, neither of which can be considered particularly important. Therefore, the impact of the economic backdrop on market sentiment may be limited during the first half of Friday's trading session.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered if the pair closes below the 1.1630 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1578. Long positions could be opened following a close above 1.1630, with targets at 1.1682 and 1.1745. These positions may remain open today; however, without geopolitical support, bulls may struggle to continue the advance.

Fibonacci retracement grids are drawn from 1.1409 to 1.1850 on the hourly chart and from 1.2081 to 1.1411 on the 4-hour chart.

The wave structure remains bearish, as bulls still lack sufficiently positive geopolitical developments to launch a full-scale advance. The latest completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break the previous high. Geopolitical factors have recently supported the bulls; however, the prospects for a deal between Iran and the United States are fading once again, while hostilities in the region have resumed.

I have already analyzed the news background that initially led to a decline and then to a recovery on Thursday in the EUR/USD article. It only remains to add the U.S. reports released during the second half of the day. In my view, the market largely ignored them, as the dollar began to decline before their publication, and market sentiment did not change afterward. Therefore, I believe that the main reason for the U.S. dollar's weakness during the second half of the day was the information reported by Axios.

US economic data were not entirely disappointing. Only the first-quarter GDP report once again fell short of expectations. Traders had expected U.S. economic growth of 2.0%, but the figure came in at just 1.6%. On the other hand, the report on durable goods orders exceeded expectations, rising by 7.9% compared with forecasts of 3.5%. The Core PCE Index was also broadly in line with expectations. Therefore, the durable goods report could have encouraged bears to take the offensive, but the GDP data prevented that. At the same time, the GDP report alone could have justified further dollar weakness, but the dollar was already under pressure due to the optimistic information from Axios. The market continues to focus primarily on geopolitical developments, while all other factors remain secondary.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3482–1.3514, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began moving lower toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3327. However, price movements in the near term will depend on geopolitical developments rather than technical analysis. Technical analysis can currently be used only as a supplementary tool. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the Non-commercial category became more bearish again during the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,530, while the number of Short positions increased by 9,718. The gap between Long and Short positions now stands at approximately 68,000 versus 132,000.

Bears have dominated the market in recent months, which comes as no surprise given the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the political crisis in the United Kingdom. The bears' advantage is currently more than twofold.

I still do not believe in a long-term bearish trend for the British pound, but in the near future everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but rather on the duration, scale, and consequences of the conflict in the Middle East. In recent weeks, the market has adjusted to expectations of a prolonged conflict, but the latest news suggests that a ceasefire may still be achieved, although the process is unlikely to be easy or quick.

News Calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

• United Kingdom – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (08:20 UTC).

The economic calendar for May 29 contains only one event that can be considered important. However, the market reaction will depend on the remarks made by the Bank of England Governor. The economic backdrop may therefore influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions may be considered today if the pair rebounds from the 1.3454–1.3466 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3408 and 1.3349–1.3355. Long positions were valid following a close above 1.3408, targeting the 1.3454–1.3466 level. New long positions may be considered after a close above 1.3454–1.3466, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.3158 to 1.3655 on the hourly chart and from 1.3866 to 1.3158 on the 4-hour chart.

Yardeni Research argues that the S&P 500 rally is driven by blockbuster earnings rather than speculation. The market is not in a bubble, and a forward P/E of 22 looks reasonable. The firm coined the term FEMO — "fabulous earnings momentum" — to replace FOMO ("fear of missing out"). Yardeni sees the broad index reaching 10,000 by decade-end, roughly a 33% gain from current levels.

S&P 500 and expected EPS dynamics

Goldman Sachs shares the view of Yardeni Research. The bank raised its S&P 500 target from 7,600 to 8,000, arguing the rally rests on expectations of stronger corporate profits following impressive Q1 reports.

S3 Partners LLC points to short sellers as a potential new driver of the rally. The firm estimates aggregate short positions in US and Canadian equities have risen by about $100bn since late April amid the protracted Middle East conflict, bringing the total to a record of $2.13 trillion. As geopolitical risk recedes on the back of a US-Iran deal, speculators will likely cover net shorts, which would add fuel to the S&P 500's upward move.

Philadelphia semiconductor index dynamics

For now, the market is obsessed with buying chipmakers amid global shortages and rising prices. The frenzy exceeds even the Magnificent Seven boom. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 82% year-to-date and recorded the best first-100-days performance on record. The previous high dates back to 1995, several years before the dot-com bubble.

SanDisk shares have jumped by 570% in 2026, Intel is up more than threefold. Samsung, Micron Technology, and SK Hynix have entered the $1 trillion market-cap club.

Overall, bullish sentiment dominates equities. Investors do not believe that the broad market is in a bubble. Banks and asset managers publish positive forecasts, and short-covering could be the next rally catalyst.

Technically, the S&P 500's uptrend is gaining strength on the daily chart, visible in the widening gap between prices and moving averages. The tactical focus remains on buying pullbacks toward the previously stated target of 7,700. Key support levels are the pivot points at 7,460 and 7,415.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Global equity markets are back at record highs. The MSCI All Country World index gained 0.4% to a record level, Asian bourses rose by about 2%, and futures point to gains in European markets at the open. The S&P 500 is posting a ninth consecutive week of gains, a streak matched only four times since 1985.

The catalyst was news of a preliminary US-Iran agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin talks on Iran's nuclear file. The deal still needs Trump's sign-off, but the market treated the report as sufficient reason to rally. Brent fell by 1.2% to $92.60, putting May on course to be the worst month for oil since March 2020, with Brent down more than 18% this month.

Note the position of Treasury Secretary Bessent, who, when asked directly about the deal, replied only that "teams are negotiating" and reiterated Trump's three red lines: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, surrender of highly enriched uranium, and ending Iran's nuclear programme. In other words, the preliminary agreement is an extension of the ceasefire, not a resolution of the core disputes. The market is trading relief, not peace.

Nevertheless, even a temporary deal on the strait changes the inflation equation. A restoration of flows through Hormuz would lower energy prices, giving the Fed some breathing room. That said, yesterday's April consumer spending data showed that the war has already taken a real toll on US consumers: spending rose, but real incomes fell, and the savings rate dropped to an almost four-year low. The economy is still growing, but more slowly, and inflation is constraining the regulator's flexibility precisely as growth slows.

Gold fell for a third straight day to about $4,500/oz, marking the longest losing streak since October 2022. The dollar stabilized after Thursday's losses, but Wall Street warns of further upside risks for the currency as Fed-hike expectations persist. The yen trades near 159.30 per dollar. Data showed that Tokyo inflation unexpectedly eased for a sixth consecutive month, reducing pressure on the Bank of Japan. The 10-year US Treasury yield remains at 4.44%.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis shows that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,574. Doing so would confirm further upside and open the path to $7,607. Maintaining control above $7,639 would further cement buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,547 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,518 and open the way to $7,494.

However, it is important to understand how fragile this arrangement remains. Trump has reportedly not yet agreed to the terms of the agreement. Vice President Vance stated to reporters that "it's too early to say when or if an agreement will actually be reached." Treasury Secretary Bessen replied to a direct question that "teams are negotiating"—and immediately reminded everyone of Trump's red lines: reopening the Strait and the transfer of highly enriched uranium. Key disagreements over the nuclear program, sanctions, and control over the Strait remain unresolved.

Even if an agreement on extending the ceasefire is reached, the physical restoration of supplies is a separate story that the market currently underestimates. For starters, mines in the Strait of Hormuz need to be cleared. Resuming operations at halted fields will take several months. Damage to energy infrastructure from drone and missile strikes requires restoration. Finally, tankers will take weeks to reach importing countries. TD Securities strategist Ryan McKay warns that during the recovery period, the market could lose another approximately 1 billion barrels of supply.

Meanwhile, the domestic deficit in the US is growing at an alarming rate. Distillate stocks have fallen to a level not seen in more than two decades. Inventories at the key hub in Cushing have decreased for the fifth consecutive week to 23 million barrels—dangerously close to the 20 million mark, below which the physical operation of pipeline infrastructure becomes difficult. These are not abstract figures; they represent a real operating limit that could manifest earlier than policymakers expect.

Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, accurately describes the situation: the parties are slowly and painfully moving towards what is being presented as an agreement. The main difference from all previous attempts is the existence of at least a consensus regarding the need for mutual easing of both blockades. This is no small thing—but it is far from enough for a sustainable decrease in oil prices.

In any case, positive news from the Middle East will exert pressure on oil prices.

As for the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $92.50. This will allow targeting $100.40, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The most distant target will be around $106.80. In the event of an oil decline, bears will attempt to take control of $86.50. If they succeed, breaking through the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and drive Oil down to a low of $81.40, with the prospect of reaching $74.85.

Yesterday's rebound was triggered by reports of a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, along with the start of negotiations regarding Tehran's nuclear program. The agreement is still awaiting final approval from Trump, and the market is viewing it cautiously—which is reasonable, given how many times similar news has already unfolded in the opposite direction.

It's worth noting that the mechanics of the Iranian settlement's influence on gold are not straightforward. Seemingly, a decrease in geopolitical tension should reduce demand for a safe-haven asset. However, it is the war that created the main pressure on the metal through another channel: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused an inflationary shock that pushed central banks to raise rates, and high rates are the main enemy of non-yielding gold. The reopening of the Strait would reduce inflation and ease pressure on rates—and this is what will ultimately support the metal.

Data released yesterday confirms the urgency of the situation. Consumer spending in the US rose slightly in April; however, annual inflation accelerated to its highest level since 2023. US GDP in the first quarter increased by 1.6% year-on-year—slower than preliminary estimates. The economy is slowing precisely when inflation is picking up again—a classic stagflation combination that leaves the Fed with no good options.

Since late February, gold has lost about 15% and is trading in a narrow sideways range. Silver is up 0.4% today to $75.96. Platinum and palladium have remained virtually unchanged.

The further direction of gold will be entirely determined by the Middle Eastern issue, which needs to be closely monitored.

As for the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance of $4,546. This will allow targeting $4,607, above which it will be quite problematic to break through. The most distant target will be around $4,656. In case gold falls, bears will try to take control of $4,481. If they succeed, breaking through the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and drive gold down to a low of $4,432 with the prospect of reaching $4,372.

Meanwhile, yesterday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put an end to the discussion about the digital dollar at a White House briefing, stating that CBDCs are off the agenda. According to Bessent, a central bank digital currency would be the first step towards tracking citizens' transactions—and this is why the Trump administration categorically rejects the idea. This stance is not new: back in January 2025, during hearings for his nomination, Bessent stated that he sees no reason to create an American CBDC, adding that such a tool is only needed by countries without other investment alternatives. Republican lawmakers have long shared this position, citing the risks of government surveillance over financial transactions.

Instead of a CBDC, Washington is betting on private digital assets and stablecoins. Bessent called on Congress to expedite the passage of the CLARITY Act, directly addressing both chambers: "So I would urge the House of Representatives and the Senate to finalize the development of Clarity." The GENIUS Act bill on stablecoins has already received bipartisan support—the Secretary called this an important precedent. Trump, in turn, wrote on Truth Social that his administration is codifying a market structure for digital assets that is resilient to future challenges, which cannot be destroyed by crypto-haters.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $73,900, targeting a move to $74,500. At around $74,500, I will exit my buy trades and sell immediately to take a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can be bought at the lower boundary of $73,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of levels at $73,900 and $74,500.

Selling Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $73,500, targeting a drop to $72,800. Around $72,800, I will exit my sell trades and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Bitcoin can be sold from the upper boundary of $73,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction to levels of $73,400 and $72,800.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $2,017, targeting a move to $2,046. At around $2,046, I will exit my buy trades and sell immediately to take profits on a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can be bought at the lower boundary of $2,002 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of levels at $2,017 and $2,046.

Selling Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $2,002, targeting a drop to $1,973. Around $1,973, I will exit my sell trades and buy immediately for a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Ethereum can be sold from the upper boundary at $2,017 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction from levels at $2,002 and $1,973.