On the data front, the US will publish the ISM Services PMI, existing home sales, and the full trade balance. The ECB will issue its latest monetary policy accounts. Germany and Italy are scheduled to release industrial production figures, while Germany and France will both report trade data.

Japan faces a particularly busy week of economic releases, including consumer spending, machine tool orders, producer prices, and the current account, all against a backdrop of pressure on the yen and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). China will report its latest inflation figures.

In terms of policy decisions, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will set its benchmark interest rate. Meanwhile, OPEC will convene to determine production levels amid improving trade routes.

Domestic indicators offered only modest support, with data pointing to subdued manufacturing growth and a labor market that, while still soft, shows tentative signs of stabilizing. Under these conditions, the BoC is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold. At the same time, uncertainty over negotiations to revise the USMCA has weighed on the economic outlook and further reduced the likelihood of future rate hikes.

The US dollar, meanwhile, remained under pressure at the turn of the month, as weaker US jobs figures dampened expectations for a near-term rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

On the domestic front, gross public debt in May exceeded market expectations, and the primary deficit also came in wider than anticipated. The deterioration in fiscal metrics has reinforced expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated for longer, sustaining upward pressure on interest rates. At the same time, Brazil’s annual inflation climbed above 4.8% in the first half of June, surpassing the central bank’s upper target band of 4.5%.

Utilities, technology, autos, banks, and industrials led the advance. E.ON gained 4.2%, and Siemens rose 2.6% after Kepler Cheuvreux upgraded both stocks to “Hold” from “Reduce.” GEA added 1.9% following an upgrade from RBC to “Outperform” from “Sector Perform.”

On the downside, Rheinmetall slipped 2.3% after the defense contractor evaluated the repercussions of the German government’s decision to cancel the F126 frigate project. The company cautioned that the resulting revenue shortfall could reach up to €300 million this year unless offsetting measures are introduced.

Over the week, the index advanced 4.7%.

With US markets shut for a holiday, thinner trading volumes in Europe put the spotlight on the technology sector. The group pared some of its losses from a volatile week as investors reassessed concerns that chipmakers and AI hyperscalers had become overbought. ASML climbed 3.7%, mirroring gains in Asian peers, and Infineon added 1.2%.

Data center–linked companies also advanced, with Siemens rising 2.5% and Schneider Electric up 1.5%. Utilities benefited as well, with Iberdrola and Enel each gaining 1.5%.

While long-dated sovereign yields remained elevated, lower yields at the short end of the curve supported bank stocks: BBVA and Deutsche Bank both gained around 1%. Market gains held as a softer US jobs report and the latest Eurozone inflation data reduced expectations for imminent interest-rate cuts by major central banks.

The month-on-month shift of €3.0 billion highlights a marked improvement in the State’s fiscal position over the early summer period. While the underlying drivers of the reversal were not detailed in the latest release, the data signal a return to surplus conditions for the Exchequer following May’s shortfall. Investors and policymakers are likely to watch upcoming releases closely to assess whether June’s surplus marks the start of a more sustained strengthening in Ireland’s public finances.

Even so, European bond yields remain well below the multi-year highs reached in May. The pullback has been supported by lower crude oil prices, weaker-than-expected inflation data, and dovish remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde, all of which have led markets to trim expectations of a third ECB rate hike this year. Money markets, however, still see a second rate increase as more likely than not.

June inflation came in softer than forecast, with headline inflation easing to 2.8% and core inflation slowing to 2.4%. Speaking at the ECB’s Sintra Forum, Lagarde said that risks to both inflation and growth in the euro area had become more balanced. In parallel, a weaker-than-anticipated US payrolls report further reduced expectations of an imminent rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The capesize index, reflecting rates for ships typically carrying 150,000-ton cargoes such as iron ore and coal, also climbed for a fourth straight day, rising 4.6% to 4,100 points. The increase was supported by stronger iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, although Chinese restrictions on some Fortescue cargoes curbed buying interest from steel mills.

The panamax index, which covers vessels that usually transport about 60,000 to 70,000 tons of coal or grain, edged up 0.4% to 2,203 points. In contrast, the supramax index slipped 0.1% to 1,673 points.

Overall, the benchmark index posted a weekly gain of 7.6%.

In corporate news, BHP Group agreed to transfer its San Manuel property in Arizona to Faraday Copper, whose shares gained 1.5%, in exchange for a 30% equity stake in the Canadian miner. Faraday aims to build a copper hub around its nearby Copper Creek project.

Oil prices hovered near pre-conflict levels, supported by optimism around potential US-Iran peace efforts. The resulting easing of energy-driven inflation concerns underpinned financials, with Scotiabank and BMO both advancing nearly 1%.

Separately, AtkinsRéalis added 1% after indicating that Turkey could open formal talks on a CANDU nuclear power plant, pending completion of an initial reactor review expected later this summer.

At the same time, oil prices held near pre-conflict lows on optimism over potential US–Iran peace progress, easing worries about energy-driven inflation and lending support to financials and the broader index. In contrast, industrial production grew only 0.2% year-on-year in May, far short of the 1.3% increase expected by analysts, and Ambev slipped nearly 1%.

Investors also kept an eye on Washington’s decision to open a public consultation on Brazil’s trade policies and practices, while awaiting the latest trade balance data.

In corporate news, BHP Group agreed to transfer its San Manuel property in Arizona to Faraday Copper in return for a 30% equity stake in the Canadian miner, as Faraday pursues plans to build a copper hub around its adjacent Copper Creek project.

Oil prices hovered near pre-war lows amid optimism over US–Iran peace efforts, easing worries about energy-driven inflation and lending support to financial stocks. Separately, AtkinsRéalis said Turkey could begin formal negotiations on a CANDU nuclear plant once it completes an initial reactor review later this summer.

The sharpest negative contributions came from coke, refined petroleum products and biofuels (-6.1%), as well as extractive industries (-2.6%). There were also notable declines in food products (-1.3%), textiles (-4.0%), printing and recorded media (-8.1%), and computers, electronic and optical products (-2.0%).

Among the 16 industries that expanded, the strongest advances were seen in pharmaceuticals (13.1%), motor vehicles (4.1%), and chemicals (3.1%). These were followed by solid gains in metallurgy (2.3%), apparel (4.7%), other transport equipment (4.7%), electrical machinery (2.6%), and machinery and equipment (1.2%).

On a year-on-year basis, industrial production in May 2026 was up 0.2% compared with May 2025.

The uptick from May’s borderline level suggests that services companies in Brazil experienced slightly better business conditions in June, potentially reflecting firmer demand and a gradual recovery in activity. While the gain is not dramatic, the move further above the 50-point threshold may be viewed as a positive sign for the broader Brazilian economy, where services play a key role in output and employment.

With the June 2026 data now in, analysts and investors will be watching upcoming releases to see whether this improvement in the Services PMI can be sustained, which would help underpin confidence in Brazil’s near-term economic momentum.

The shift from 49.5 to 50.7 signals a transition from slight contraction to modest growth across Brazil’s combined manufacturing and services sectors. A reading above 50 typically indicates an overall increase in business activity, while a figure below that threshold points to contraction.

The June 2026 improvement suggests that underlying economic momentum may be stabilizing after weakness in May, offering a cautiously positive signal for Brazil’s near‑term growth outlook. However, with the index only marginally above 50, the expansion remains fragile and will likely require confirmation in the coming months.

While the increase is relatively small, the move higher indicates that Mexican consumers are feeling slightly more optimistic compared with the previous month. The latest reading will be closely watched by analysts and investors as a gauge of potential momentum in domestic demand and household spending in the months ahead.

While the increase is marginal, the move higher may indicate that Mexican consumers are feeling somewhat more positive about their economic prospects compared with the previous month. The reading remains below the neutral 50-point threshold often used as a dividing line between pessimism and optimism, pointing to continued caution among households even as confidence edges upward.

Analysts and market participants will be watching upcoming releases closely to see whether June’s gain marks the beginning of a sustained improvement in consumer sentiment or simply a brief stabilisation following previous softness in the index.

The shift from growth to contraction underscores lingering volatility in Brazil’s industrial sector. While April’s result had suggested a tentative recovery in output, May’s negative reading indicates that underlying demand and production conditions remain fragile. The month‑over‑month comparison highlights how quickly the industrial pace has cooled, with May’s figure now undercutting the improvement seen just one month earlier.

Market participants and policymakers will be closely watching upcoming releases to determine whether May’s decline represents a temporary adjustment after April’s rebound or the start of a more persistent weakening in industrial activity. For now, the data point to a sector still struggling to establish a stable growth trajectory.

The data are based on a year-over-year comparison, with the “actual” figure reflecting the change in May 2026 versus May 2025, and the “previous” figure capturing April 2026’s performance against April 2025. The abrupt loss of momentum suggests that Brazil’s industrial sector is facing renewed headwinds after a stronger showing in April. Investors and policymakers will now be watching upcoming monthly releases closely for signs of whether this slowdown is temporary or the start of a more protracted cooling in industrial activity.

While the move reflects a reduction of roughly $5.66 billion from the prior reading, the overall reserve position remains substantial in absolute terms. Market participants often track these figures closely as an indicator of a country’s external buffer and its capacity to manage currency volatility and external financing needs.

The updated data point will be watched for any emerging trend in reserve dynamics, particularly in the context of capital flows, global interest rate conditions, and movements in the Indian rupee. For now, the latest figure suggests a marginal softening, rather than a sharp shift, in India’s FX reserve cushion.