Non-earmarked (free resource) credit reached R$4.1 trillion, an increase of 1.1%. For legal entities, this segment totaled R$1.6 trillion, driven by seasonal growth in discounted bills (8.5%), working capital with maturities of up to 365 days (9.1%), and on-demand (sight) credit card lines (14.6%).

For individuals, non-earmarked credit amounted to R$2.5 trillion, up 1.1%, supported by growth in sight credit cards (2.2%), private-sector payroll-deductible loans (10.1%), and vehicle financing (0.8%).

Directed (earmarked) credit advanced 0.7% to R$3.1 trillion, with increases of 1.2% for companies and 0.5% for households. On a yearly basis, credit to legal entities expanded 7.6%, while credit to individuals rose 10.9%.

Market sentiment was supported by reports that Iran is prepared to allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade, a move that could reopen the flow of tanker-based energy exports from the region.

Shares of large-cap technology “hyperscalers” were subdued ahead of earnings due Wednesday and Thursday from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple. The sector is expected to detail increased AI-related investment and update forward guidance, set against a backdrop of growing skepticism toward unchecked capital expenditure growth.

In single-stock moves, Qualcomm jumped 10% following reports it is collaborating with OpenAI and MediaTek to develop next-generation smartphone processors.

Meanwhile, bank and asset management shares were largely flat as investors awaited the likely confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

The data, based on a month‑over‑month comparison, indicate that while February’s lending had already been growing modestly, March’s increase more than doubled the pace. In this framework, the “actual” figure of 0.9% reflects the change from February to March, while the “previous” 0.4% represents the change from January to February. The acceleration points to rising demand for credit or a more accommodative lending stance by banks as the first quarter of 2026 drew to a close.

Market participants and policymakers will now be watching whether this faster lending growth proves to be a one‑month rebound or the start of a more sustained upswing in Brazilian credit conditions as the year progresses.

The dry spell is expected to continue following weeks of scant rainfall, high temperatures, and pasture fires. Farmers are weighing whether to drill new wells for irrigation and, in some cases, considering grazing cattle directly on wheat fields. Meteorologists at the US Department of Agriculture emphasize that the spring growing period is critical for grain formation, making upcoming weather patterns particularly important. Market participants are closely monitoring rainfall forecasts for signs of relief.

At the same time, fertilizer prices have surged amid supply disruptions tied to tensions involving the US, Iran, and Israel, while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily constrained, further tightening global energy markets. On the demand side, Saudi Arabia has purchased 985,000 metric tons of wheat, with shipments routed via Red Sea ports to avoid potential disruptions in Gulf shipping lanes.

Buying in pharmaceuticals, information technology, automobiles and banking stocks underpinned the advance. Sun Pharma led the gains, jumping 7% after announcing a major all-cash acquisition of US-listed Organon in a deal valuing the company at $11.75 billion. Other notable gainers included Reliance (2.9%), Adani Ports (2.7%), Tech Mahindra (2.6%), M&M (2.1%), NTPC (2.1%), HCLTech (2.1%) and TCS (2.1%). On the downside, Axis Bank fell 3.1% after the lender reported a marginal decline in Q4 profit.

Across Asia, coal remains crucial for baseload power. Japan is extending the operating life of its coal-fired plants, and South Korea is loosening restrictions on coal use. At the same time, China is ramping up domestic coal production and accelerating coal-to-gas projects to reduce reliance on imports. Together, these moves highlight a wider shift toward energy security, with governments seeking to shield themselves from persistent concerns over gas and oil supply.

Nonetheless, any normalization in energy flows from the Middle East could quickly reverse recent coal price gains. Over the longer term, demand for coal is expected to face mounting headwinds from the rapid expansion of renewable energy and ongoing policy-driven energy transitions around the world.

In corporate developments, Anglo American has drawn interest from at least three potential buyers for its Australian steelmaking coal assets. Stanmore Resources, Mitsubishi Corporation, and PT Buma Internasional Grup are among the suitors reportedly evaluating bids.

In the automotive sector, BYD raised its overseas sales forecast for this year to 1.5 million units, up from its January projection of 1.3 million, underscoring robust global EV demand. Domestic demand has also been supported by continued Chinese investment in power infrastructure. This was reinforced by Beijing’s recent pledge to double the country’s EV charging capacity to 180 gigawatts by 2027.

Additional support for lithium demand is emerging from data center operators. Their large-scale power storage systems typically require more lithium than those used in EVs, reflecting a new wave of structural demand tied to the surge in capital expenditure by AI firms and hardware manufacturers.

Moody’s noted that export growth is likely to moderate, but emphasized that the competitiveness and adaptability of Chinese exports should help ensure that any deceleration in GDP growth remains gradual over the medium term. The agency also pointed to a policy emphasis on channeling investment into high-productivity sectors and addressing supply imbalances, with the aim of improving overall capital efficiency.

In addition, Moody’s anticipates that authorities will continue to manage regional and local government debt in a controlled manner, even as total debt levels rise due to ongoing policy support.

Among other major rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s currently assigns China a sovereign credit rating of “A+” with a stable outlook, while DBRS maintains an “A” rating on China, also with a stable outlook.

The CBI Distributive Trades Survey, a closely watched gauge of retail and wholesale activity, suggests that more firms are experiencing falling sales than rising ones, and that this gap widened significantly over the month. The drop from March’s already weak level signals mounting pressure on consumer demand and retailers’ trading conditions across the United Kingdom.

The deterioration in April’s index highlights increasing headwinds for the sector, which may weigh on overall economic momentum if the trend persists in the coming months. Market participants and policymakers will be monitoring upcoming data closely for signs of stabilisation or further weakness in retail activity.

Transport costs recorded a particularly strong rebound, surging 11.1% after a 3% decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, the decrease in prices for clothing and footwear eased slightly (-6.3% vs. -6.5%). By contrast, inflation slowed for food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.3% vs. 3.9%) and for restaurants and hotels (6.5% vs. 6.7%).

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 1.7% in March, compared with a 0.5% increase in February.

In contrast, construction remained a key growth driver, with activity accelerating to 24.0% from 21.8% in February. The services sector also strengthened, expanding by 7.8% year-on-year, up from 7.0% in the prior month.

On a monthly basis, overall economic activity advanced by 11.6% in March, following a 4.6% increase in February. Over the first quarter of the year (January–March), Armenia’s economic activity was 7.1% higher than in the same period a year earlier.

Investors now face a pivotal week of economic releases and central bank decisions. The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. This follows last week’s UK inflation report, which showed CPI rising 3.3% year-on-year in March, driven largely by a sharp increase in motor fuel prices. In response, markets have shifted from pricing in a single rate hike this year to expecting at least two, with a possible third.

Political uncertainty is adding to the backdrop ahead of the 7 May local elections. Pressure is intensifying on Prime Minister Keir Starmer over his controversial decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as UK Ambassador to the United States.

Brent crude traded above $108 per barrel after US-Iran negotiations stalled, following US President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a delegation’s trip to Pakistan for talks. According to reports, Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to de-escalate tensions.

Investors are also bracing for a data-heavy week, with flash estimates of Eurozone inflation and GDP in focus. In Germany, consumer sentiment fell to a three-year low in May 2026, weighed down by Middle East tensions, weaker income expectations, and rising energy costs, further clouding prospects for an economic recovery.

Media reports indicated that Iran has floated a proposal to reopen the Strait and temporarily suspend nuclear talks, though no concrete steps have yet been taken. Investor focus is now turning to upcoming policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada and Bank of England. The new earnings season is also getting under way, with results due from Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest Group, as well as AstraZeneca, GSK and Unilever.

Against this backdrop, the European Central Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday, opting for a wait-and-see stance amid shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. Market pricing still points to two quarter-point rate increases in 2026, with the possibility of a third by year-end.

On the geopolitical front, reports suggest that Iran has submitted a new proposal to the United States aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement over the weekend that he had canceled a planned trip by US envoys to Pakistan for talks with Iran.

Investor sentiment has also weakened due to a decline in the relative appeal of Indian debt for foreign investors. Elevated currency hedging costs have compressed returns, making Indian securities less attractive compared with other markets.

At the same time, recent reports suggest a potential shift in the geopolitical backdrop. Iran has proposed a phased plan that would prioritize a ceasefire while deferring nuclear negotiations. The proposal has reportedly been conveyed to Washington through intermediaries, though the U.S. response remains unclear.

Looking ahead, traders expect the benchmark 10-year G-Sec yield to remain in a range of 6.85%–7.02% in the near term, reflecting persistent uncertainty stemming from global risk sentiment and cross-border capital flows.