Fiscal consolidation is expected to proceed more slowly, reflecting high expenditures on social programs, defense, and costs associated with upcoming elections. Consequently, the fiscal deficit is forecast to average 4.8% of GDP over the next several years, pushing net government debt to around 62% of GDP by 2029—roughly 20 percentage points above its pre-pandemic level. Moody’s currently rates Slovakia at A3 with a stable outlook, while DBRS assigns a rating of A (low), also with a stable outlook.

Fitch noted that Lithuania’s rating remains constrained by the relatively small size of its economy and elevated geopolitical risks stemming from its proximity to Russia and Belarus. These risks are partially mitigated by NATO security guarantees, including Germany’s planned troop deployment and the presence of U.S. forces in the country.

Among other major agencies, Standard & Poor’s currently rates Lithuania at A with a stable outlook. Moody’s assigns an A2 rating with a stable outlook, while DBRS rates Lithuania at A (high), also with a stable outlook.

Government expenditure now exceeds 54% of GDP, one of the highest levels in the European Union. The fiscal deficit widened to 5.2% of GDP and is expected to remain around that level this year before gradually narrowing to approximately 4.5% by 2029. According to S&P, efforts to restore public finances have been inadequate, and there are significant risks to implementing key structural reforms, especially in the pension system and labor market.

Economic growth is forecast to edge down to 0.9% in 2026, from 1.0% in 2025, against a backdrop of ongoing energy and trade uncertainties linked to the conflict involving Iran.

S&P indicated that future rating upgrades would depend on a sustained reduction in the fiscal deficit and public debt, while any further deterioration in Belgium’s fiscal or economic position could lead to additional downgrades.

By comparison, Moody’s most recent rating for Belgium stands at A1 with a stable outlook, while DBRS last rated Belgium at AA, also with a stable outlook.

Traders are closely watching diplomatic developments, with the key shipping corridor still largely closed but widely viewed as essential for restoring supply. Any easing of disruptions to gas flows could lessen the need for gas-to-coal switching in power generation.

Even so, the protracted conflict in the Middle East continues to inject a risk premium into energy markets, prompting utilities in Asia and Europe to lean more heavily on coal. Despite the latest pullback, coal prices remain nearly 9% higher than they were before the war’s onset in early March.

Brent crude prices stayed elevated, intensifying concerns over global inflation and economic growth and weighing on major banks and the broader index. Bradesco declined 0.6%, while Banco do Brasil fell 1.3%.

Petrobras retreated 1.3% after giving up strategic rights in Braskem, whose shares rose 1.2% on the news. Meanwhile, Suzano slipped 2.2% even as it announced pulp price increases for customers in Europe and the Americas starting in May, citing higher costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

On the upside, Usiminas advanced 4.4% after more than doubling its first-quarter profit to R$896 million. Sabesp also edged higher after receiving approval from Brazil’s antitrust regulator to acquire full (100%) control of Paulista Geradora de Energia.

Sentiment improved after reports that Iran’s foreign minister is set to meet Pakistani mediators in Islamabad, fueling hopes for renewed negotiations with Washington. Risk appetite was further supported by President Donald Trump’s announcement of a three-week extension to the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

In corporate news, Intel jumped 23% to a fresh record high after reporting strong quarterly results and sharply beating sales and profit expectations for the year. Nvidia rose more than 4%, Amazon advanced over 3%, and Palantir added 1.1%. Procter & Gamble climbed 1.6% after topping sales forecasts and reaffirming its full-year guidance.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, the Nasdaq rose 1.5%, while the Dow slipped 0.4%.

Although slightly cooler conditions are expected into early May, overall demand is not expected to increase meaningfully, with heating needs remaining modest and cooling demand yet to accelerate. On the supply side, output has declined by about 4.1 bcfd over the past 18 days to an 11-week low of 108.1 bcfd, as lower prices encourage producers, including EQT, to scale back production. At the same time, LNG feedgas flows have risen to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, hovering near record highs.

For the week, natural gas prices declined about 5.8%, reversing a 1% gain in the previous week.

In Canada, producer prices rose 2.4% month-on-month in March, driven by sharp increases in energy, petroleum products, and chemical costs linked to the Iran conflict. The data heightened expectations that the central bank may have to consider additional interest rate hikes.

Among financials, Brookfield slipped 0.6% and TD edged lower, while Royal Bank of Canada and BMO posted modest gains. In the commodities space, gold prices rebounded but remained on track for a weekly loss. WPM fell 1.8% and Franco-Nevada declined 1%, whereas Agnico Eagle advanced 0.3% and Barrick rose 2%.

The increase in net speculative longs suggests growing optimism toward Brazil’s currency among futures and options traders. The expansion from 40.0K to 43.5K indicates that market participants have incrementally added to their bullish exposure, reflecting a more positive stance on the BRL compared with the prior reporting period.

While the data do not specify the underlying drivers, the shift in positioning underscores that speculative flows remain supportive for the Brazilian real, as investors continue to favor long exposure rather than reducing risk in the currency.

Net speculative positions in the CHF improved slightly to -33.3K from a previous level of -34.1K, indicating a small reduction in net short positions. While traders remain broadly bearish on the Swiss currency, the marginal shift suggests some softening in negative sentiment.

For markets, the move may hint at early repositioning among futures traders, but the overall stance still reflects expectations of relative Swiss franc weakness in the near term. Investors will be watching upcoming macroeconomic data and central bank signals for confirmation of any sustained change in CHF dynamics.

The increase in net speculative longs suggests that market participants are positioning for a firmer peso, whether on expectations of supportive domestic conditions, favorable interest-rate dynamics, or broader risk appetite in emerging-market assets. While the data do not explain the drivers behind the move, the sustained build-up in bullish bets highlights the MXN’s continued appeal in global currency markets.

For investors and analysts, the rise from 59.0K to 67.7K net positions will be closely watched as an indicator of sentiment, particularly in the context of shifting global monetary policy and capital flows into Latin America. Any reversal in positioning could prove just as significant, making upcoming CFTC reports a key reference point for gauging momentum in the peso.

Speculative net positions in the S&P 500 moved to -110.1K contracts, compared with -115.8K previously. While positioning remains firmly in net short territory, the reduction in bearish bets suggests some traders are scaling back expectations of further downside in the U.S. equity benchmark.

The shift in futures positioning will be closely watched by market participants as a potential signal of changing sentiment toward U.S. stocks, particularly amid evolving views on growth, inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

The decline suggests a modest cooling in bullish sentiment toward U.S. tech-heavy equities, as traders pared back exposure compared with the previous reading. While the net position remains in positive territory—indicating that long positions still outnumber shorts—the pullback may reflect growing caution around valuations, earnings expectations, or the broader macroeconomic backdrop.

Market participants will be watching upcoming data releases and corporate results closely to gauge whether this shift marks the start of a broader repositioning in Nasdaq 100 futures, or simply a short-term adjustment after earlier optimism.

The deeper net short positioning suggests that market participants are reinforcing expectations against the yen, potentially reflecting continued pressure from interest rate differentials and policy divergence with other major economies. The move from -83.2K to -94.5K underscores a growing consensus among speculators that the Japanese currency may remain under strain in the near term.

While the data captures only speculative futures positioning, the sustained build-up of short yen exposure is likely to be closely watched by FX traders and policymakers alike, as it may amplify volatility if market sentiment shifts abruptly.

The small decline suggests that while market participants remain broadly positive on the Australian currency, some traders have begun to pare back bullish bets. This modest adjustment could reflect growing caution around global risk sentiment or shifting expectations on interest rate differentials, though the overall net long position still points to underlying support for the AUD in speculative markets.

The net speculative position in wheat fell from -18.4K contracts previously to -25.5K, indicating that funds and other non-commercial traders have added to their short positions or reduced longs. This widening negative balance reflects growing expectations of either ample supply, weaker demand, or both, and may exert additional downward pressure on wheat prices in the near term.

The shift underscores a cautious sentiment in the wheat market, with speculative players positioning for continued softness rather than a rebound, as they reassess risks in the broader U.S. agricultural complex.

The gain in speculative net longs signals growing optimism among traders toward the soybean market, suggesting expectations of firmer prices or supportive fundamentals ahead. The increase in positions underscores continued interest in agricultural commodities within the broader U.S. futures complex, as market participants reassess supply-demand dynamics and potential weather or policy risks impacting the crop.

While the data only reflect positioning and not price levels, the expansion in net longs may add upward pressure to soybean futures if the trend persists, particularly if it coincides with any tightening in supply or stronger export demand. Traders and analysts will be watching upcoming reports and market signals closely to gauge whether speculative appetite for soybeans continues to build.

The marginal increase suggests that bullish sentiment among speculative traders remains broadly intact, but without a decisive shift in positioning. The near-unchanged net long stance points to a market that is watching for clearer signals before committing to a stronger directional move in silver. For now, positioning trends indicate steady, rather than surging, confidence in the metal’s outlook.

The move indicates that while positioning remains net short, some traders are scaling back expectations for further downside in natural gas prices. A less negative reading suggests either short-covering activity or the emergence of selective long interest, as market participants reassess supply-demand dynamics and price risk in the US gas market.

Investors and analysts will be watching upcoming data and price action to see whether this shift develops into a sustained moderation of bearish sentiment or proves to be a temporary adjustment in positioning.

The increase in net long positions suggests that traders are maintaining, and modestly expanding, their positive outlook on the precious metal. While the move is incremental rather than dramatic, it points to continued interest in gold as a key asset in investor portfolios, with speculative players slightly reinforcing their exposure rather than taking profits or scaling back risk.

The pullback in net longs suggests that hedge funds and other large speculators have moderated their bullish stance on crude, potentially reflecting increased caution over the near-term price outlook. While the positioning remains net long, the reduction may signal expectations of softer demand, rising supply, or heightened uncertainty in broader financial markets. Traders and analysts will be watching upcoming data and price action closely to see whether this shift marks the start of a broader repositioning in the oil market or a temporary adjustment.

The rise in speculative net positions suggests that market participants are growing more optimistic about corn price prospects, adding to their bullish exposure. While the data does not specify the drivers behind the move, the higher net long stance typically reflects expectations of either tighter future supply, stronger demand, or heightened price volatility.

For traders and investors, the shift in speculative positioning will be closely watched as a potential signal of changing sentiment in the broader agricultural commodities complex, with corn often serving as a benchmark for grain market risk appetite.