Investment for Freedom

The Things about Buying into a Bond Product

2025-01-09T16:20:00.000+08:00

Bond is a type of fixed income financial instrument backed by some government or company.

It should be, but its price is also correlated to current market rate.

When market rate goes Up, bond prices goes Down. The opposite side happens same too.

When get into more detail, there are actually more things.

If buying the bond price below face value, the indicated yield calculates in price gain till maturity.

If buying above face value, the overall yield calculates in the price drop till maturity.

There is a complicated formula to calculate overall yield which assumes reinvestment of all future distributions at current rate.

But I think complicated things can be read simple way.

If you'd cheaper bond price, buy below face value (means its face yield rate is below market rate).

If you'd have better short term yield, buy above face value with a higher coupon rate.

When market rate goes up and down, the bond prices can vary quite significantly too.

It's not surprising that within 1 year, the bond price can go up / down by 10%-15%. So if you sell it, there could be a gain / loss besides distribution.

If look at the long term bond ETF products, e.g. TLT, the price went down a lot ~40% since the FED started to increase interest rate.

Here is the thing, for a bond product, provided no default, if you hold till the end of 20 years, the yield is for sure to happen based on the entry price point.

If you buy an ETF? it doesn't have an ending date as the holdings are refreshed regularly.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

US 20 years Bonds continue to be at high rate

2025-01-04T16:49:00.001+08:00

On the closing of first week of year 2025,

US long term bonds yield continue to be high at close to 4.85.

This goes a bit different way as FED just made another interest rate cut in Dec.

As this is about long term yield, it's more related to expected inflation in long run, any recession or crisis on the way, and maybe the credit of US government.

Overall, we should still see a lower interest rate for year 2025.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Crazy USD keep going up, What this may seem to mean?

2025-01-03T09:33:00.002+08:00

After Dec rate cut, now USD goes up again at start of year 2025

It's going higher.

One key reason I think is that overall the world countries are all cutting rates. As US is cutting rates slower, and especially with the Dec hawkish tone when cut the rate, this pushes USD be stronger.

Another reason maybe, new president is perceived Strong?

I'd say, it's crazy. Imagine the USD/SGD went from 1.43 down to 1.28, and now surge back to 1.36.

Crazy moves for a currency rate.

There are so much market manipulations about it. I don't believe this is how a natural market force would behave for forex.

Imagine I just hold USD at 1.29, and now is already 5% richer in SGD in just a few months (4?) time.

It's definitely crazy.

More crazy things may happen this year.

Is USD to be stronger? I have no idea. All I can see is that if it moves from 1.3 to 1.4, it's just normal and nothing to be surprised. Same for a move from 1.4 to 1.3.

If it's all about demand and supply. I think this year the demand for USD would depends. So far US stocks have done so well, and bond rates are at high. These all mean very attractive for money to invest in US. It would need to depend on how much funds want to flow out and invest in other markets; and Fed rate decisions.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Which is more important? Don't lose money, or Aim for big gains

2025-01-01T11:48:00.000+08:00

For an ordinary investor, the answer for me is definitely first

Don't lose money first.

There is nothing wrong to aim for big gains, for sure.

So it seems, in order to success, you need both: Sure win + Consistent gains

How to achieve this? This is big million dollar question.

I'd quote legendary Warren Buffett here: Rule No 1: never lose money. Rule No 2: never forget rule No 1.

Is it doable?

When you invest, it sure comes with risk correct? How can it be never lose money.

Actually it's possible.

For example, T-bill.

Well, I know, it's lame right? why not Fixed-D, it's even more safer.

That's why, never forget about this. Over 1 year, do you think it's ended with a gain better? Yes, always.

What's the harm of some fixed income instrument? None.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Back to blog, and New Year 2025 starts

2025-01-01T09:38:00.003+08:00

It has been a long while,

Yes, I think I'd come back to write about this journey once a while regularly.

The good news is, I have survived the market, though just doing very average.

Year 2024 has closed, I've closed with 2.9% profit overall.

It's not impressive at all, considering that Fed rate is 4%+, stocks wise STI +16.8%, SP500 a whopping 23.3%.

Crazy markets.

I will not talk much about my own portfolio, or how much values here. Ya, this might be boring.. Anyway, let's see how it goes. Just will be some stuff that I talk to myself.

Well, since 2024 has been a great run for US stocks, I tend to think 2025 year will be limited.

Current instruments that I have: Tbill, US bonds, some ETF

Brokers that I use: IB, Futu Moomoo

That would be all for now. Hope my funds can have a good run for year 2025 though.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Staying Sideline

2019-02-14T14:15:00.002+08:00

I have further reduced my stock holdings to negligible levels now. It's difficult to make money from it, and I would like to take a break to review and rethink about what should be my moves to better build up for my personal financials.

With mostly cash now, I'm arranging to pay down my house loans first. Besides this would mainly be earning the interest, do some minor fx operations and monitoring. For now, I would think it will be a quite a while monitoring mode, until I figure out or see some major opportunity that arises.

Staying sideline, staying relevant.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Reduced position

2019-01-09T17:44:00.000+08:00

I have reduced my positions heavily by around 50%.

This is partially about mkt outlook, and current price levels. It has been long due, I should have done it sometime Oct last year.

Depends on price movements, I should be further reducing it by some. and then goes into monitor mode.

My long term financial objective has revised down also. By having an ambitious goal doesn't help in all scenarios. The path of time is quite fixed and limited.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Hello 2019, Bye 2018

2019-01-03T15:06:00.000+08:00

The year of 2018 has concluded with a loss of 5.5K for me. I know the market is overall not doing so well, but this result is still quite poor as I have been prudent with fund allocation. 2018 should able cover back for the previous loss but ended up in red again.
The main draw back comes from 2 counters. I would not mention which they are, but they serve a hard lesson to me. Rosy pictures can turn plain, and weak prices can get weaker. No matter what the base is, profit or dividend or asset value, these metrics are not fixed. Seemingly cheap may not be real cheap always, or in future. Stock prices are about future, and they move ahead and fast.
While 2018 has passed, 2019 looks to be another challenging year. Not just stocks, even work life are the same. I'd say this is complex matter, this world, life, human society, economy and everything. Maybe it is just going towards where it should be, hard working is required and fruits need to be farmed and earned.
I would also need to set a right mindset. Invest is a means, it can bear fruits, it can also be damage. by going for it means accepting its nature. and it's not the only thing that matters, there should be focus on things like healthy living, meaningful life, family and children.
Well, I'm still on my course of investing as I'm not quitting the path. I can't say that I'm optimistic or pessimistic on it. It's just that I start to realize investing won't be suitable for everyone and it comes with its inherent risk factors.
I have come to a stage where savings won't help much already. The ideal scenario is that portfolio can self grow and help with my financial free goal. I know investing is an answer; but still, the approach should still be scientific based, i believe more on the compounding miracle. Anyway, won't be so straight forward too.
Wish all the best for the roads ahead. Cheers

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Investment Platforms

2018-12-05T10:00:00.001+08:00

The US market just tumbled before the break day 5-Dec. well it's a separate topic, I'd share about the investment platforms I'm currently using now.

Over past 2-3 years, I have tried many things, SSE A shares, forex, CFD, Foreign stocks, Futures etc.
I have no interest in warrants, or options stuff. These instruments are all inter-linked, esp Forex. Forex is an interesting thing, complicated, manipulated but inevitable.

Unavoidable, I have opened quite a handful accounts with various providers. they all got own characteristics, but to me most importantly is safety to fund.

After all these, I have now downsized all these investment platforms. so here are the few things left for me that I will move on with:
1. CDP (via local brokers)
2. IB
3. OANDA

I figure they should be able to provide the investment services that I need for now, and they are good platforms.
so what platforms are you using, I'd welcome your sharing in comments as well. Thanks for reading.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Year 2018 closing soon

2018-11-28T14:34:00.002+08:00

This has been a busy year, this has been a fast year. I haven't post anything yet, so yes, here I am, still surviving in the market.

In terms of investment, it has been a tough year. There has been ups and downs. I had some success with Comfort, WBA counters, but really hit bad by some counters like Singpost, QAF. so the year would not be performing so well overall, but one consolation is that USD has strengthened, and that will give some currency gains.

Any lesson learned? ya I figure is that by all means be prudent and don't over commit, because you would never know that a rosy counter would turn out to be a bomb. It could go low, average down is fine, but bear in mind it will go lower.

The real question is, what's the sustainable way to make profits? keep taking or ride the bull for long time? that's something for me to think about. some profit taking had been good moves, but some proved to be not so good. If the overall return is still like this so so, why not just dump everything into a gov savings bond and earn predictable 2.x%?

This year I figure I would be looking at a small loss again or some margin profit. overall not so satisfied but as I said still can survive it. will post it when the year close.

Thanks for reading and all the best with investing!

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

2018 New Start

2018-01-04T16:42:00.000+08:00

2017 has passed by so fast. I have stopped the blog for a while too.
It has been a challenging ride for me although stock indexes are moving up a lot. Have to say my plans didn't turn out so well.

The 2nd half of year went from bad to worse, and in the end my accounting tells a small loss for year 2017. Mainly hit by weak USD, and a few counters like SPH, SIA E, Comfort, QAF. Mr Market moved against me and I have to admit the defeat.

2018, my open positions are still standing. and the few days of Jan has been violent moving for the markets. Quick moving might not turn out so well statistically based on history. It's going to be another exciting ride seemingly. Lets hold on to it.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

July 2017

2017-07-31T10:56:00.002+08:00

The month of July has been another challenge. Stock counters under performed and USD went even weaker. The earning has been declining again and the year's outlook become somewhat uncertain. I cannot be sure if it's just a test, and it is a tough test now.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Mid of 2017

2017-07-02T20:44:00.001+08:00

Just a timely update on this year's track. Recent weak USD and some stock counters under perform has impact the profit. only around 3% overall for the 1st half of year. It's a long journey and would need to see how the 2nd half of 2017 unfolds. Stay tuned.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Apr 2017

2017-04-30T20:43:00.003+08:00

It's very fast to reach end of Apr month. This has been a good month in general. Though USD had been weak, stocks are doing well. Local shares rose, and US shares also recovering from previous sell down.

It's interesting to see month of May is coming.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Mar 2017

2017-04-04T12:06:00.001+08:00

Overall Mar has been a plain month. USD went weaker despite of rate hike. Local stocks gained.
The US stocks didn't run up any more in Mar period, which is interesting while the emerging markets start to gain.

For the month of Mar, the overall portfolio gained a small amount. I think this is doing all right. While the focus is on the forthcoming as I would not expect still such a smooth journey ahead..

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Feb of 2017 Review

2017-02-25T20:35:00.000+08:00

This has been another good month for stocks. Currency wise USD went weak as more of a correction, and overall still doing fine as the fx operations has countered its effect.

For local markets, I'd kind of think caution is needed. The recent recovery of export and economy data may be due to a weaker Sgd and seasonal effect. Now Sgd has recovered stronger and fundamentally speaking, challenges are still there. As for now I'm vested with Reits & Trust with overseas exposure and no retail business dependency.

I'd look forward to the developments coming in Mar. I kind of think Fed would increase rate this time.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

The first month of 2017

2017-02-06T09:07:00.002+08:00

I have not been blogging much since last post. Work is getting more disruptive which is something I don't like. The first month has been good, local stocks have risen, and continuing its momentum.

Right on CNY day, the new president of US has started his show. The new policies that had been demanded can really be classified as stunning to the world, and not just 1, more have come and it's getting intense and lot of protests going on.

It kind of benefited local stocks market as money start to take interest here. Of course it's not sure how it will develop and the outcome. After all, the US economy still is the driver for whole world.

So I'd think a good start may need to turn to more cautious positions. Things could turn south, just as always.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

Close of 2016 and 2017

2016-12-27T17:23:00.004+08:00

The markets are still moving but much quieter as end of year holiday season arrive.

Many things have happened. It turns out still be a good year after all. The overall return for this year is around 8% profit, which is better than I expected at mid of year where was struggling recover from loss.

I can't foresee what will happen in 2017. Thus I have reduced exposure significantly. I think some stocks should still do better, but will not be easy to pick any more. The US stocks have risen, the USD currency has also risen, is it a trend continuation or is it a trap.

I'd put 2017 as a cautious year. Among the world, tension is still clear, uncertainty is present. One good factor is inflation pick up, but that still depend on oil price recovery. If economies still lag, the markets won't reflect it well.

All in all, a good investor need to be able to maintain profitability at uncertain times. and here comes 2017.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.

The market trends look out

2016-11-29T17:24:00.003+08:00

It has been eventful for Nov and very soon closing of 2016 is here.
The markets have moved quite drastically here, and it's interesting to see how it will move on into next year.

The 'trump' card. USD has pulled back from there, and more strongly than ever is aiming for new high grounds. The US stocks surged with bank counters, on hope of new policy changes on banking industry.

A pragmatic leader and divided country. Changes will be brought in and world economy are getting more divided seemingly.

I would think markets have been at some too optimistic side. Corrections are due.
US will see challenges and that will bring back USD to reality. Besides, US stocks are no longer say cheap on valuation ground. The index may get range moving, and from there, individual counters performance will vary quite some.

The emerging markets should be able to hold their ground. The negative side have been factored in to some good degree, and value is about to come into play.

Will there be a crash? I would think chance is at lower percentage. Usually markets don't crash when there are obvious challenges around. So I would think SG markets will have some good move next year, at least some range opportunity.

Brexit is still there, and Europe still struggle with refuge issue. With this background, UK is bringing opportunity with the weaker pounds and weaker stocks. It's not easy to pick the right timing and stock choice, and hopefully some prudent trades can bring decent profit.

Disclaimer: This post is not a call to buy or sell. Plse do your own analysis and make investment decisions.