Some highlights from this week’s News Scan:

• Political parties release climate platforms as British Columbians go to polls
• Carbon dioxide levels reach historic 400ppm threshold
• Urban trees provide billions in economic value

The PICS News Scan is produced by ISIS at the Sauder School of Business and the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS). To be added to the News Scan distribution list Subscribe Here or to provide content feedback and/or suggestions about interesting news items, please email: isis@sauder.ubc.ca.

Authors: Chanda Brietzke, Justin Bull, Liz Ferris, James Noble, Sarah Thomas

Editors: Neil Thomson (ISIS), James Tansey (ISIS), Robyn Meyer (PICS), Tom Pedersen (PICS)

Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy

Most companies fail when reporting GHG inventories, report says

May 1, 2013.  Regulatory and market pressures are forcing more companies to measure, disclose, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, new research from the Environmental Investment Organization (EIO) finds that the level of public disclosure of GHG emissions among the world’s largest 800 companies is unacceptably poor. Its Environmental Tracking Carbon Rankings report, which examines the greenhouse gas emissions and transparency of these 800 companies, found that just 37 percent reported their full emissions inventories and correctly adopted the principles of emissions reporting.  In total, only 21 percent of the Global 800 had their data externally verified. Only one firm, German chemical company BASF, reported emissions across its entire value chain, earning the top spot in the 2013 rankings.  US based First Energy and Edison International rank at the bottom of the list with no publicly reported emissions data. Of the Canadian firms involved in the study, 41 percent reported complete data, and just over half of that group verified those data.

In 2010, BC emitted 62 million tonnes of GHG emissions, a 4.5 percent reduction in emissions from 2007 to 2010. Legislation requires facilities that emit 10,000 tonnes or more greenhouse gases each year must report those emissions, and those with emissions of 25,000 tonnes or greater must have their emissions reports verified. While there is no requirement for smaller businesses to report emissions data, Climate Smart is a Vancouver based social enterprise that provides training and tools to enterprises interested in reducing their climate impact. The Climate Smart program teaches businesses to identify and calculate their GHG emission inventories and then helps them develop strategies to reduce these emissions. To date, Climate Smart has helped over 550 businesses collectively measure more than 790,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Research Theme II: Sustainable communities

Adaptation strategies underway in Europe

May 6, 2013.  The European Environment Agency (EEA) recently released a report discussing climate change adaptation in Europe. Highlights from the study show that while half of the 32 EEA member countries have national adaptation strategies and some are starting to take action, all countries still have a lot of work to do. The effects of climate change are already being felt through fiercer storms, heatwaves, and changing levels of rainfall. The report outlines a series of key challenges to adaptation planning in Europe including maintaining flexibility, ensuring policy coherence and effectiveness, and obtaining wide stakeholder engagement. The report goes on to recommend a combination of adaptation measures including “grey” technological solutions; “green” adaptation of natural systems; and “soft” policy type approaches. There is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach and adaptation must respond to local conditions, keeping in mind the urgency of the response required. While the cost of adaptation may be high, the report emphasizes the overall savings when events such as flooding are avoided.

Adaptation measures from the report are being undertaken to some degree in British Columbia by various government departments, organizations, community groups, and institutions that recognise that climate change is already affecting BC communities. For example, dikes are presently under construction in the Cowichan Valley, promising to provide 200-year protection against rising sea levels. In the “green” category, permaculture initiatives are springing up around the province and represent community efforts to adapt to a changing climate. Roberts Creek has planted edible native plants in traditionally ornamental gardens thus adding to local food security and providing resilience. O.U.R EcoVillage on Vancouver Island is another such example of adaptation of natural systems. Finally, one such example on the policy side is the Marine Environmental Observation, Prediction, and Response Network (MEOPAR), which is working to model ocean currents and create an early warning system for storm surge in the Strait of Georgia.

Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems

Carbon dioxide levels reach historic 400ppm threshold

May 2, 2013.  The Scripps Institution of Oceanography has been recording the increasing atmospheric concentration of CO₂ at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii since March 1958. Average concentrations are published in an iconic graph known as the Keeling Curve, and made available on the Scripps Institution website, while @keeling_curve tweets the daily average. In 1958 the concentration was about 315 ppm (parts per million) but on May 13, 2013, the daily average (400.07 ppm) exceeded the 400 ppm threshold for the first time in at least 800,000 years. While surpassing that threshold is only symbolic, it sends a message to humanity that is incontrovertible: human activities are fundamentally pushing up the heat-trapping properties of the Earth’s atmosphere. Research suggests that the last time the CO₂ concentrations exceeded 400 ppm was between three and five million years ago, and the rate of change then was not nearly so rapid. The current rate of increase is worrying to many scientists, especially because it shows no signs of slowing. Ralph Keeling, who manages the Mauna Loa record, says, “I wish it weren’t true, but it looks like the world is going to blow through the 400 ppm level without losing a beat.”

The continued increase in CO₂ concentrations does not bode well for the official UN goal to keep levels under 450 ppm, and reflects our current global failure to effectively reduce GHG emissions. BC’s official emissions did decrease by 4.5% percent from 2007 to 2010, but this rate will still fall well short of the stated goal to be 33% below 2007 levels by 2020. In BC, critics point to the planned production of large amounts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a major barrier to meeting GHG emissions targets. With the upcoming BC election, the economic and climate policies of each party have come under close scrutiny. All parties, with the exception of the Green Party, support the development of LNG, and the Pembina Institute has stated that the Greens and NDP are the leaders on climate policy. The obvious need for more ambitious and effective climate policy has been an influence in the current election campaign.

Research Theme IV: Social mobilization

Political parties release climate platforms as British Columbians go to polls

May 7, 2013.  British Columbians head to the polls today (May 14^th), and the decision that voters make will determine the future course taken by the province to curb climate change. In a report released May 7^th by the Pembina Institute – a non-profit think tank focused on energy and climate issues – it suggests that of the front runner parties, the BC New Democratic Party’s (NDP) platform, which promises an expansion of the BC carbon tax to include process emissions from the oil and gas sector and opposition to further pipeline development, would offer “significant steps forward for the climate”. This position comes despite the NDP’s support for liquefied natural gas (LNG) development. The institute assessed the platforms of BC’s four political parties against four climate-implicated election issues that will effect the province’s ability to meet its greenhouse gas reduction targets – namely, oil pipelines, green jobs, the carbon tax, and LNG.

In a poll conducted by Oraclepoll Research and released on May 9^th, the BC NDP was found to have a 4-point lead over the BC Liberal Party, with 41% and 37% of respondents supporting each party, respectively. Approximately 12% of decided voters indicated they support the BC Green Party, while 10% indicate support of the BC Conservatives. According to Pembina’s analysis, the BC Green party platform is the only platform that substantively addresses the four climate-related election issues it identified. The Green Party platform is additionally the only of the four likely to put the province on a pathway toward meeting its legislated emissions reductions targets of 33% GHG emissions reductions, by 2020. The research institute further acknowledges that the BC Conservative party has indicated support for LNG development, expansion of oil pipelines, and a repeal of the BC carbon tax. The BC Liberal Party has indicated they will freeze the tax rate of the BC carbon tax for five years.

Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests

Urban trees provide billions in economic value

May 7, 2013.  According to the United States Forest Service (USFS) urban trees across the US take up 21 million tonnes of carbon per year, generating an implied economic value of $1.5 billion.  Researchers looked at 28 cities in six states to estimate the carbon uptake value for the entire nation. Their findings are critical, because urban areas in the US are growing quickly – from 2.5% of land area in 1990 to 3.1% in 2000. Recognizing the value of urban trees also highlights an important challenge – more urbanization does not necessarily translate to more urban trees. The US is also losing 20,000 acres per year in urban tree cover. Putting a dollar value on the carbon in those trees might help managers and politicians preserve urban trees.

Carbon storage is not the only value generated by urban trees. In a similar study, scientists working in Tennessee found that urban forests in the state generated $683 million in value each year. Of that, $350 million was sequestered carbon, $204 million came from removing ozone from the air, and $66 million was the result of reduced energy bills due to the shade and cooling provided by trees. The extent and value of urban forests in Canada and BC is poorly understood in comparison, perhaps due to the enormous natural forests adjacent to our cities. Nonetheless, 19% of annual deforestation in Canada is caused by urbanization, the creation of transportation corridors, and recreation, second only to agriculture as a driver of land-use change.

Also in the news

California carbon credits will be utilized in Quebec as of 2014

Women are ‘key drivers’ in climate change adaptation

ScienceShot: Global warming at your doorstep

Extreme weather and climate change in the American mind April 2013

Study explores adaptation of pine forestry to climate change

Nissan dealers in San Francisco, Portland and Seattle Selling LEAFs at unbelievable rate; request additional supply

NASA study projects warming-driven changes in global rainfall

A global standard for monitoring coastal wetland vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise

Download pdf version: PICS Climate News Scan – 14 May 2013

Photo Credit: WhiteAndBlueArmy

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.

• Songbird’s timing disrupted, but with surprising results
• People want more fuel-efficient vehicles
• Political affiliation and support for climate action

The PICS News Scan is produced by ISIS at the Sauder School of Business and the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS). To be added to the News Scan distribution list Subscribe Here or to provide content feedback and/or suggestions about interesting news items, please email: isis@sauder.ubc.ca.

Authors: Chanda Brietzke, Justin Bull, Liz Ferris, James Noble, Sarah Thomas

Editors: Neil Thomson (ISIS), James Tansey (ISIS), Robyn Meyer (PICS), Tom Pedersen (PICS)

Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy

Analysis sees peak fossil fuel use by 2030

April 24, 2013.  Advances in fuel-efficiency and renewable-energy technology are curbing demand for fossil fuels and paving the way towards so called “peak fossil fuels” sooner than originally predicted. Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that by 2030, 70 percent of the world’s total power generation investment will be directed towards renewables due to the growth in fossil-fuel use having almost stopped. This, it claims, will result in renewable energy constituting half of all global power generation by that date. Interestingly, this scenario does not foresee a strengthening of climate policy. The ramp-up of renewables would be driven by the decrease in renewable energy technology costs and their rapid adoption worldwide, especially in emerging markets like China, India and Brazil. China is now the world’s biggest investor in renewable energy, investing $65.1 billion last year, compared with $35.6 billion in the United States (US). Fuel-efficient technologies will also slow growth in energy demand and their adoption will become the new normal.

In British Columbia 2009/10 total revenue from oil and gas royalties, including petroleum and natural gas rights sales, totaled $1.35 billion – almost 60 per cent of total direct revenues from BC’s resource industries. Of growing importance to the province, is the investment in independent power projects (IPPs). The Clean Energy Act requires that BC produce at least 93% of its electricity from clean or renewable facilities located within the province. In British Columbia this is largely run-of-river hydro and wind facilities. In 2009/2010, 8,400 gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity was generated from these IPP projects, a figure that rose to 10,827 GWh in 2011/2010. With strong growth in electricity demand over the next few years combined with the stipulations embedded in the BC Clean Energy Act, the province’s reliance on renewable energy technologies is expected to grow.

Research Theme II: Sustainable communities

People want more fuel-efficient vehicles

April 29, 2013.  The Consumer Federation of America recently released a report evaluating progress towards new US vehicle fuel efficiency standards. US standards now require vehicles to achieve an average across a manufacturer’s fleet of 54.5 miles-per-gallon (mpg) or 4.2 L/100 km by 2025, and this first review gives a strong indication that the target will be met. Many car companies have vehicles on the market that are already meeting that standard and nearly half of US car models already have a version meeting the 2014 interim fuel efficiency target. Furthermore, the market share of best selling vehicles achieving at least 30 mpg (7.8 L/100 km) has risen from 4 to 12 percent in the last four years. Sales of vehicles getting less than 22 mpg (10.7 L/100 km) dropped from 70% to 44%. On the consumer side, the survey reports that people generally support the mileage standards, and three out of five people indicate that fuel economy will be a ‘very important’ factor in the next vehicle they buy.

For more than 30 years Canada had a voluntary policy for improvements in fuel consumption from cars and light trucks. However fuel efficiency standards in BC and Canada are now being aligned with the US regulated standards. Despite such policy changes, in British Columbia the rising demand for light trucks and slow rates of electric vehicle sales have put a brake on fuel efficiency improvements, even with the incentives of higher gas prices and provincial rebates. A BC based professional engineer and plug-in electric vehicle enthusiast, hypothesized that a probable explanation for slower EV sales may be that Canadians prefer vehicles with lower up-front costs. Additionally, higher price tags further disadvantaged plug-in electric vehicles in the Canadian market with prices starting at around $42,000 as opposed to $39,995 in the US. However, according to a survey conducted by the Canadian Automobile Association (CAA), 45% of British Columbians say they are likely to buy or are ready to consider buying an all-electric vehicle for their next purchase.

Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems

Songbird’s timing disrupted, but with surprising results

April 25, 2013.  Spring has been arriving early in many parts of the world, and not all species are adapting to the changing timing of the seasons. In western Europe, recent research found that the Great Tit, a common songbird, is not breeding earlier to match the peaking of its caterpillar prey population, which is happening earlier with warmer spring temperatures. However, the mismatch has not yet led to a population decline of the Great Tit. This is largely due to a mechanism called density-dependent compensation (DDC). “The solution to the paradox is that although fewer offspring now fledge due to a food shortage, each of these chicks has a higher chance of survival until the next breeding season.” The authors refer to this as relaxed competition, as there are fewer fledglings with which to compete. “Out of 10 eggs laid, 9 chicks are born, 7 fledge and on average only one chick survives winter. That last number increases with less competitors around.” The authors affirm that genetic adaptation is still necessary in the long term, however, and it must come before the costs outweigh the capacity of DDC to slow the decline.

Some BC species are already adapting successfully to the advancing spring season. For example, research on a pink salmon population in southern Alaska found that the average migration time has shifted two weeks earlier in response to warmer stream temperatures, while abundance of the genetic marker that indicates late-migrating fish has decreased threefold over the last 40 years. Changes in the timing of salmon runs along the Pacific Coast may impact many other species that depend on this influx of nutrients, including grizzly bears, coastal wolves, and scavenging birds. Protecting these species and the interactions between them is important for the preservation of biodiversity, but BC currently has no legislation that protects federally-listed species at risk on provincial and private lands. This could change, depending on the results of the upcoming BC election. In their platforms, the NDP specifically states that it will implement new legislation to protect endangered species and habitats (p. 41), as does the Green Party (p. 25). The Liberal Party does not include a statement regarding species at risk in its platform.

Research Theme IV: Social mobilization

Political affiliation and support for climate action

April 30, 2013.  Despite long held assumptions to the contrary, recent research suggests that political affiliation is not an important indicator of support for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. For example, a study led by a Michigan State researcher finds that regardless of political affiliation or orientation, American voters who believe in the scientific consensus on climate change are more likely to support government led emissions reductions. However, a study conducted by the University of Pennsylvania and Duke University suggests that a person’s political affiliation is likely to influence their support and preference for the type of policy mechanism or tool used to curb GHG emissions. In research published recently, the authors found that energy efficiency labels on light bulbs can discourage conservative voters from buying the product, but highlighting the product’s financial incentives, or the way that it encourages ‘energy independence’ will incentivize purchasing by the same group.

Within the US, a political campaign group is trying to generate Republican support for firmer action on climate change by ‘shaming’ Republican climate change skeptics within Congress. The campaign specifically targets politicians who deny the scientific consensus on the topic, and its aim is to generate public outcry. No such campaign exists in Canada. Indeed, the Minister of Natural Resources Canada, Joe Oliver, stated in April that, “Scientists have recently told us that our fears (on climate change) are exaggerated”. However, within British Columbia at least, the issue of climate change is a cross-party issue. In 2008 the BC Liberal Party implemented its suite of climate policy measures, including North America’s first revenue neutral carbon tax. The carbon taxation scheme was innovative, and resulted in a series of tax shifts, that reduced both corporate and personal income taxes in the province to amongst the lowest levels across Canada. All parties competing in the upcoming BC provincial election have included the carbon tax in their platforms. The Liberals would freeze the tax for five years, the NDP would expand the scope of the tax to include process emissions from the oil and gas industry, the Conservatives would scrap the tax, and the Green Party would continue to increase the tax at an incremental annual rate.

Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests

Forest emissions mix with air pollution to potent effect

April 23, 2013.  While it is easy to visualize vehicle exhaust or burning trash emitting particles and gases in to the atmosphere, the emissions of trees, plants and forests come less readily to the mind’s eye. Scientists have discovered that pollution (sulphuric and nitric acids along with aerosol organic compounds) drifting from cities to natural areas interacts with forest emissions to create secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). Researchers in the US spent a month flying over the skies of Sacramento, California, measuring air particulates. They were looking at the interactions between city pollution and the mountain air of the Sierra Nevada. They found elevated levels of secondary organic aerosols that can have a large impact on air quality, visibility, human health and ultimately, the climate.

The degree of mixing between anthropogenic air pollution and the emissions of trees to form SOAs surprised the scientists in California. One particular emission from forests – isoprene – was found to interact with air pollution to create higher levels of various nitrogen oxides, emissions that are damaging to human health. The presence of SOA’s can influence the  radiative character and oxidative capacity of the atmosphere. If BC is to better understand and manage its environmental footprint, the interactions between air pollution and forests needs to be investigated. In particular, given the geographical variations in the abundance of natural forest cover across the BC landscape, and taking the lead of the new California-based research, an imperative for the Province will be the accurate determination of local impacts.

Also in the news

Most firms get greenhouse gas reports wrong: report

Study shows a higher risk of Northern Gateway pipeline spills than Enbridge estimated

Atmospheric carbon levels nearing historic threshold

Climate secrets of sea spray and clouds revealed

San Francisco and Seattle lead US cities pulling funds from fossil fuel firms

A new era for clean energy in Canada

Google, Cisco share first place on Greenpeace’s 2013 Cool IT list

Download pdf version: PICS Climate News Scan – 07 May 2013

Photo Credit: luc.viatour

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.

Some highlights from this week’s News Scan:

• New findings released on renewable energy communications
• US and China agree on working group for addressing climate change
• Behavioural change has significant impact on energy consumption

Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy

US and China agree on working group for addressing climate change

April 13, 2013.  A joint statement was issued last week in Beijing, signaling the United States (US) and China will establish a joint working group on climate change. The parties noted that they have a shared view on the “increasing dangers” of global warming. The announcement came on the heels of talks between US Secretary of State, John Kerry, and top Chinese leaders. The world’s two largest emitters, “recognize that the increasing dangers presented by climate change measured against the inadequacy of the global response requires a more focused and urgent initiative”. China’s top foreign policy official said the two countries would strengthen practical cooperation in areas including the economy, energy and measures to protect the environment. The two sides have agreed to raise the issue of climate change and energy policy to a ministerial level, to encourage more meaningful action on both sides. In the joint statement both nations publically acknowledged the overwhelming scientific consensus concerning climate change and its worsening impacts, including rising global temperatures, the accelerated melting of Arctic sea ice, and the increased incidence of extreme weather events occurring all over the world.

Strengthening practical cooperation on climate change means the increased transfer of knowledge and solutions between the two countries, including the trade of clean and renewable technologies. Canada’s trade relationship with China is characterized more by exchanges relating to fossil fuel energy resources. China is BC’s second-largest trading partner, and accounts for 18.1 percent of the province’s commodity exports – a total value of more than $5.7 billion. This figure is growing fast, with exports increasing by an average of 24 percent per year since 2002. British Columbia (BC) needs to develop a more intentional and open dialogue with China on climate policy. The US is the province’s largest trading partner and in some areas such as transportation fuel policy, dictates the climate policy in the province. With these interconnected relationships in mind, and the latest discussions between the US and China, it would certainly be beneficial to BC to establish a formal working group for addressing climate change as it relates to the BC – China trade relationship.

Research Theme II: Sustainable communities

Behavioural change has significant impact on energy consumption

April 10, 2013.  A recent report released by the European Environment Agency (EEA) discusses the relationship between consumer behaviour and energy consumption. The report focuses on three main areas: energy efficiency measures and behaviour change; structural factors such as pricing schemes; and last, the rebound effect. It found that targeted policy interventions can deliver energy savings as high as 20%. For instance, direct feedback through smart metering gives people the information they need to know if their energy consumption is excessive. The report also found that community initiatives can introduce new pro-environmental social norms, and pricing mechanisms can increase the efficiency of energy delivery while simultaneously providing energy savings. The report concludes that a combination of approaches holds the greatest potential for reducing energy consumption through behavioural change. A survey to gain opinions from energy users on the report will be active until May 17.

The findings of this study reinforce the belief that behavioural change is important for reducing energy consumption. A variety of tools already implemented in British Columbia, such as smart meters and the BC Carbon Tax, provide a combination of approaches as recommended in the EEA report. Along the same lines, one of the commitments outlined in the BC Climate Action Plan was to look at new ways to encourage overall tax savings through shifts in behaviour that reduce carbon consumption. Furthermore, work has been completed to incorporate environmental sustainability principles into school curricula to inform students how they can reduce their individual impacts. A Sustainable Schools Best Practices Guide, developed in 2010, was designed for schools to address sustainability issues and is intended to create a “culture of sustainability” through behavioural change.

Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems

Mitigating short-lived climate pollutants slows climate change impacts

April 14, 2013.  Researchers have used data from a suite of climate models to examine predictions of sea level rise (SLR) in the coming century. In particular, the study examined the role of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). These substances remain in the atmosphere for weeks or months in the case of black carbon and ozone, or decades in the case of hydroflurocarbons and methane. Researchers used models to predict the rate and amount of SLR by 2050 and 2100, with and without the mitigation of SLCP and/or CO₂ emissions. They discovered that “in the near term, SLCP mitigation is more effective than that of CO₂” in slowing both temperature rise and SLR. Still, reductions in both types of emissions are necessary, and could reduce overall SLR by 31-50% and SLR rate by 50-66% by 2100. The authors stress the urgency of mitigation actions, as their effectiveness is reduced by about 30% if mitigation is delayed for 25 years.

The mitigation scenarios used by the models are based on the “maximum adoption of available technologies” by 2015. However, many regions are not on track for such emission reductions, including BC. The government has redefined natural gas as a ‘clean source of energy’ when used to produce liquefied natural gas (LNG) and is pursuing a ‘full speed ahead’ approach to extracting and exporting the province’s natural gas deposits. As discussed in last week’s News Scan, natural gas extraction invariably produces some ‘fugitive emissions’ of methane and will increase BC’s greenhouse gas emissions past legislated targets. Far from decreasing SLCPS, natural gas production thus increases methane emissions, which have the greatest impact on warming and SLR of all the SCLPs discussed above. Some may argue that the focus must be on reducing this methane leakage and increasing our reliance on natural gas as an alternative to coal and other fossil fuels, but others assert that only a shift to renewable energy sources will drastically reduce emissions and slow climate change.

Research Theme IV: Social mobilization

New findings released on renewable energy communications 

April 9, 2013.  When new renewable energy projects are proposed, policy makers and decision makers are faced with the task of communicating project details with the public to understand opinion, and generate awareness. To assist with this task, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has just released a new report, which synthesizes the best practices in communication for decision makers and policy makers. The report, titled “Communication Best-Practices for Renewable Energy (RE-COMMUNICATE)”, looks at 15 renewable energy communication strategies developed by industry, government and civil society, and puts forward a series of recommendations to improve practice at all stages of a communication strategy, from the time of strategy inception and research, right through the implementation and evaluation stages. Key findings include that renewable energy (RE) campaign strategies should make use of the latest research in the field of behavioral economics to maximize the impact of campaigns, that emotive and innovative messaging is required to generate positive responses, and that communication strategies must be proactive in addressing negative media coverage.

The findings of the IEA report could be valuable to British Columbian policy makers and decision makers who are currently engaged in the pre-planning stages of several renewable energy projects. For example, the Site C clean energy project is a hydroelectric dam and generation station proposed along the Peace River in Northeastern BC. The project proponents, who recently submitted an Environmental Impact Statement, face opposition from individuals, civil society groups, and first nations groups. BC also has abundant wind energy resources in the northeast of the province, which may be developed to help power the growing energy needs of the natural gas sector. Relevant IEA recommendations include gaining a better understanding of public opinion surrounding renewable energy projects at the pre-planning stages, and pro-actively addressing these concerns as they arise within the media. Another valuable insight is that while public support is strong for renewable energy in the ‘abstract’, this support diminishes as projects become tangible, and the public is able to understand the impacts the project may have in their community. The report further finds that following project implementation, public support tends to increase over time, and that one of the most effective ways of generating public support is to “increase public participation in the planning of, and profiting from, renewable energy projects”.

Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests

Controlled fires and forest thinning promotes forest growth: study

April 15, 2013.  Scientists working in Ohio investigated the effects of various control treatments on forest growth. They looked at controlled burning, thinning, and a combination of the two. They then extracted tree cores to look at growth. Using a data set from 1991 to 2012 they examined tree rings to measure the influence of forest thinning practices over that time period. Between 2000 and 2005 an ongoing experiment in controlled thinning was conducted. The tree rings during this period were substantially larger than the period before and after, suggesting an increase in growth. The study looked at chestnut oak, yellow poplar, hickory trees and white oak. All but white oak responded positively to thinning treatments, while white oak trees showed no change in growth patterns.

Many rural BC communities are at risk from wildfire, a risk that will increase over time as average summer temperatures rise. BC now has an excellent opportunity to combine community wildfire risk abatement, via thinning for example, with district-scale bioenergy development, which in effect combines climate change adaptation with mitigation measures. This promises to reduce community energy expenditures and create local employment while enhancing community energy security. Research on this topic, entitled “Community Fire Interface Biomass Utilization For Heating Fuel” and supported by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, has been underway for two years. A White Paper that describes the risk issue and the opportunity presented by dealing with it, including positive economics aspects, will be released by PICS later this spring.

Also in the news

Business giants urge US to seize climate change “opportunity”

Asian development outlook 2013: Asia’s energy challenge

At cross-purposes: subsidies and climate compatible investment

Study: Arctic summers warmest in 600 years

Renewable power: Germany’s energy gamble

Examining CO₂ concentrations and flow dynamics in streams

Energy as dirty as 20 years ago on slow climate effort, IEA says

Keystone emissions seen as equal to 46 coal power plants

Download pdf version: PICS Climate News Scan – 23 April 2013

Photo Credit: Brandon Koger

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.

Some highlights from this week’s News Scan:

• Carbon markets at a tipping point
• Do you suffer from opinion bias when it comes to climate change?
• Growing zones of BC’s forests set to shift

The PICS News Scan is produced by ISIS at the Sauder School of Business and the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS). To be added to the News Scan distribution list Subscribe Here or to provide content feedback and/or suggestions about interesting news items, please email: isis@sauder.ubc.ca.

Authors: Chanda Brietzke, Justin Bull, Liz Ferris, James Noble, Sarah Thomas

Editors: Neil Thomson (ISIS), James Tansey (ISIS), Tom Pedersen (PICS), Robyn Meyer (PICS)

Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy

Carbon markets at a tipping point

March 25, 2013.  The world’s carbon markets are at a tipping point, finds the Thomson Reuters Point Carbon annual survey of market participants and observers. The report – Carbon 2013 – reveals that the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, the world’s largest carbon market, is deeply challenged by an oversupply of credits that have been causing prices to fall. And while nearly half of all 2000-plus respondents view the EU ETS as the most cost-efficient way to reduce emissions, less than a third see the market as mature. The long-term outlook for the EU ETS, however, is positive. The majority of the survey’s participants believe it is likely that EU politicians will adopt reforms and eventually increase the scope and size of the carbon market. Outside the EU, the outlook for nascent carbon markets is optimistic. The Western Climate Initiative (WCI), a multi-jurisdictional partnership designed to take cooperative actions to address climate change, is stimulating action. In California, 60 percent of respondents who have a compliance obligation under the WCI market said they have set up trading operations, and 53 percent said they have implemented internal emissions reductions strategies. Over half of the participants consider the price of carbon to be a decisive factor in investment decisions, with the majority of respondents expecting a California Carbon Allowance to be between $10-15/t in 2013.

Of the other WCI partners, Quebec has announced it will be moving ahead with taking the necessary steps to formally link its emissions-trading program with California. Washington State has just passed a bill to investigate best practices for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, where a carbon market approach will undoubtedly be a consideration. British Columbia’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction (Cap and Trade) Act, provides the statutory basis for setting up a market-based cap and trade framework to reduce GHG emissions from large emitters operating in the province. British Columbia (BC) has been in discussions for several years with the WCI partners after being the first Canadian province to authorize hard caps on GHGs. BC’s direct participation in the cap and trade component of the WCI was put on hold in early 2012. The Province is currently monitoring the performance of the WCI cap-and-trade program and depending on progress, has reserved the right to join the program in future.

Research Theme II: Sustainable communities

Time to retrofit for climate change

March 25, 2013.  A recent report on adaptation from two universities in the UK points to the need to update public buildings and infrastructure to adjust for a changing climate. The article identifies three “new challenges” posed by climate change: that climate change risk is no longer a constant (referring to weather extremes), that anticipatory rather than reactive actions are needed to deal with the scale and speed of potential impacts, and thirdly that adaptation is difficult when we don’t know the state of the future climate. The report recommends that new infrastructure such as schools, hospitals or roads are built to be “climate proof” and able to withstand extreme events such as flooding or drought for the project’s expected lifespan. Also, retrofitting to improve climatic resilience should be included in the routine maintenance or renovation of existing structures.

Parts of BC are extremely vulnerable to sea level rise and infrastructural development continues in sections of the province that are at, or below sea level. It has been suggested that shoreline or coastal floodplain infrastructural projects with a 40-year lifespan should take into consideration a 0.5 metre rise in sea level. In 2011 the BC Ministry of Environment published land use adaptation guidelines that aim to help local governments, land-use managers, and government officers account for coastal flooding hazards and sea level rise in their planning and decision-making. Additionally, MEOPAR, a marine environmental observation prediction and response network, is working to connect government, NGOs, and the private sector with current research and discussion around short and long term climate risks. The project will improve communication and collaboration and ultimately better prepare BC for ocean related disasters. Incorporation of flood-risk predictions should now be a prerequisite in planning infrastructural renovations and new capital construction in susceptible regions within the province.

Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems

US introduces nation-wide Climate Adaptation Strategy -  Canada has no counterpart

March 26, 2013.  The US Fish and Wildlife Service released a nation-wide conservation framework last week: The National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy. The Strategy has a straightforward goal: “to inspire, enable, and increase meaningful action that helps safeguard the nation’s natural resources in a changing climate.” There are nine guiding principles within the Strategy, including collaboration between governments and other organizations, using the best available science, and recognizing that urgent action must be taken in order to reduce the negative effects and capitalize on the potential benefits of climate change. The Strategy outlines seven general steps for implementation by managers and institutions. These goals include conserving and connecting habitat, increasing awareness and motivating action, and reducing non-climate stressors. The Strategy is not a ‘how-to’ guide, but an overarching resource to put multiple governments and agencies on the same track to conservation and adaptation in the United States.

Canada has no comparable strategy that addresses adaptation to climate change on a nation-wide level, which may be another indication of the apparent contrast between the two countries in development of climate action policies. On a provincial scale, the BC government recently released a less encompassing draft five-year plan addressing vulnerable species, which shares many of the same underlying messages as the US Strategy. The BC publication advocates taking immediate action and acting in collaboration while managing at landscape scales, but climate change is hardly mentioned at all. The effects of climate change are only considered as part of the ‘scientific information’ used to guide recovery planning, and are regarded as less important than habitat connectivity and conservation. Overall, the draft plan has been criticized as a “visually dazzling document that is hollow at its centre,” lacking in specifics and clarity. Commenting on the draft plan is open until April 12, less than one month for input after the draft was published.

Research Theme IV: Social mobilization

Do you suffer from opinion bias when it comes to climate change?

March 26, 2013.  A new study that looks into opinion bias when it comes to the topic of climate change has found that your opinion might not be as common as you think. The study, published in Nature, examines the ways that people perceive their own opinion in relation to others, and has some interesting findings. The study’s researchers examine two effects, the false consensus effect (or “a tendency to overestimate how common one’s ‘own’ opinion is”) and pluralistic ignorance (instances where “people privately reject an opinion, but assume incorrectly that most others accept it”), and specifically look into how these effects relate to people’s bias around climate change. The study finds that that when it comes to opinions on climate change, people are impacted by a false consensus effect, which causes them to greatly overestimate the number of people who deny the existence of climate change. The study further finds that people experiencing this effect are less likely to change their opinions on the subject.

In British Columbia, it is not clear how common false consensus bias is amongst those who don’t adhere to the scientific community’s findings on climate change. In a December 2012 poll conducted by Environics Institute, 1500 Canadians were asked about their opinions on climate science and only 12% indicated that they believe climate science is “not yet conclusive”. 52% of respondents felt that though climate science is “uncertain”, the country should take strong action in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

It would be interesting to conduct a study that examines the opinions of the 12% of Canadians who disagree with climate science, to determine how prevalent they believe their position is amongst the general public. Surprisingly, it appears that it isn’t denial of climate science that is causing the Conservative Government to fail to implement measures that would protect the climate and environment. When confronted during question period in the House of Commons in February 2012, Joe Oliver, Minister of Natural Resources, answered that, “the science is clear that humans are causing global warming”. Perhaps false consensus bias is causing the federal government to believe that fewer Canadians want strong action on climate change than is actually the case. In the Environics poll discussed above, 59% of Canadians indicated they believe the government must implement standards that will reduce GHG emissions.

Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests

Growing zones of BC’s forests set to shift

February 28, 2013.  Zones suitable for growing Douglas Fir and spruce forests in British Columbia are set to change dramatically, according to new research. Scientists from the University of Victoria and the Canadian Forest Service recently completed a climate modeling study looking at how a changing climate can impact tree species suitability. An interdisciplinary team focused on integrating scientific methods with management approaches conducted the research. Integrating nine different global climate models and three different emissions scenarios, the researchers investigated how changes in temperature and precipitation might impact trees. All of their projections indicated that a rapid shift in species range is likely. The latitude and elevation of both Douglas Fir and spruce forests is set to expand, although the extent of expansion is uncertain. They also found that temperature, not precipitation, was more likely to influence tree suitability.

Managing BC’s forests in a changing climate will require robust modeling that encompasses a variety of climate scenarios. It is not enough to recognize that the earth is warming and that weather patterns are shifting – land managers need to know what it is they should do. Knowing that growing zones are shifting, foresters can replant a better mix of species. And knowing that increased temperatures will make new species viable at higher elevations and latitudes can prompt management decisions that future-proof our forests. However determining exactly what ‘viable’ means will remain a challenge. Under the range of feasible scenarios huge swathes of the province shift from being suitable to not suitable. Future proofing becomes an exercise in informed guesswork. But it is nevertheless important, as the lifecycles of forests demand that we plan for a climate beyond 2050 that will almost surely be different.

Also in the news

Department of Energy launches new clean energy manufacturing initiative

Google embraces renewables for energy efficiency

Properly planned roads could help rather than harm the environment, say experts

Chevron, green groups agree set standards for shale gas

TEEB for business releases report on organizational change for natural capital management

Reef-building corals lose out to softer cousins due warming

Comparing the effectiveness of monetary versus moral motives in environmental campaigning

Catchment productivity controls CO₂ emissions from lakes

Elevated carbon dioxide in atmosphere trims wheat, sorghum moisture needs

German village offers blueprint for rural green energy

After die-off, forests hold tight to carbon

Download pdf version: PICS Climate News Scan – 03 April 2013

Photo Credit: Ric Lim

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.

Some highlights from this week’s News Scan:

• Two valleys and two stories on the impact of climate change
• Controlling air pollution may accelerate climate change
• Annual fuel economy increase one of the best ever

The PICS News Scan is produced by ISIS at the Sauder School of Business and the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS). To be added to the News Scan distribution list Subscribe Here or to provide content feedback and/or suggestions about interesting news items, please email: isis@sauder.ubc.ca.

Authors: Chanda Brietzke, Justin Bull, Liz Ferris, James Noble, Sarah Thomas

Editors: Neil Thomson (ISIS), James Tansey (ISIS), Robyn Meyer (PICS), Tom Pedersen (PICS)

Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy

Energy-efficient homes less likely to default

March 15, 2013.  The risk of defaulting on a mortgage is 32% lower for homeowners that live in energy-efficient homes, according to a new study by the University of North Carolina – Center for Community Capital. The study, “Home Energy Efficiency and Mortgage Rates,” is the first to try to quantify the connection between a home’s energy efficiency and default risk of the homeowner. To assess whether residential energy efficiency is associated with lower default risks, the report is based on a national sample of about 71,000 single-family home mortgages, and takes into account loan, household, and neighborhood characteristics. The report finds that more efficient houses are associated with lower default risk and concludes that money saved on energy costs is a factor explaining the lower default risk. It stands to reason that because owners of efficient homes save money on utility bills, they can therefore put those savings toward mortgage payments.

The findings of this study suggest that the US housing market may be well served by considering rules that would improve the accuracy of mortgage underwriting through ensuring that energy costs are considered in the mortgage underwriting process. One approach has been adopted here in Canada already. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) offers a 10% premium refund on its mortgage loan insurance program, as well as an extended amortization period, to individuals who use CMHC-insured financing to purchase energy efficient homes. The stated purpose of the program is to promote energy conservation and provide initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Provincially, British Columbians are saving energy and money through participation in the LiveSmart BC program, which offers more than $7,000 in rebates in 54 different areas for energy efficiency. FortisBC’s PowerSense program also offers rebates and financial incentives to make upgrading to energy-saving technologies more affordable.

Research Theme II: Sustainable communities

Annual fuel economy increase one of the best ever

March 17, 2013.  The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has revealed data which make 2012 one of the best years since 1975 for annual improvements in fuel economy. Projected manufacturer figures suggest fuel efficiency for 2012-models average 23.8 miles per gallon compared to 22.4 mi/g in 2011. The 2011 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear disasters in Japan likely affected this jump due to the fact that there was a significant drop in manufacturing in Japan, a world leader on automobile production. Decreased manufacturing in 2011 may have resulted in the ‘annual fuel efficiency increase’ in 2011 and consequently this would likely have resulted in increased efficiency in 2012 as production came back on-line. Despite this, fuel efficiency has increased by 16 percent over the past 5 years. Also, the number of vehicles using non-petroleum based fuel was significant enough that the EPA specifically identified them and there is an expectation that more diverse fuel options will become available in coming years. “Increasing interest in these alternative fuel vehicles is being driven by…high oil prices, concerns about future oil supplies and greenhouse gas emissions”. The US Department of Energy has also said that the US transportation sector has the technical potential to reduce GHG emissions by over 80% by 2050.

Electric and hybrid vehicle sales have increased in BC in the past year. Through LiveSmart BC, the government has been incentivising the purchase of “clean energy vehicles” and charging stations since late 2011 and recently commenced installation of over 10 high-speed charging stations in a number of cities around the Province. The stations will complete the BC portion of the West Coast Green Highway, an agreement with three American states to ensure electric vehicle charging is available along the West Coast from BC to California. Additionally, charging stations are becoming a more frequent site on the street and an environmentally conscious bakery owner in Colwood has even gone so far as to install an electric vehicle charging station to the side of his bakery, which he powers in part with solar photovoltaic cells on the building’s roof. On March 26, the BC Government announced that the LiveSmart incentive program would be extended for another year, to March 31, 2014.

Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems

Controlling air pollution may accelerate climate change

March 14, 2013.  Since 2006, several research programs across Europe have been collecting and analyzing data on tiny airborne particles, called aerosols. One recently completed initiative was the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). EUCAARI resulted in several notable achievements including comprehensive databases of the properties and amounts of aerosols over Europe and nearby developing countries. Modeling tools were also developed, providing insight into the interactions between aerosols, clouds, and climate. Some research indicates that controlling pollution to decrease aerosols –– which can be hazardous to human health –– may actually increase overall warming from greenhouse gases. This is due to the direct and indirect cooling effects of particles. Aerosols block sunlight directly and also affect the whiteness and lifetime of clouds, causing them to reflect more radiation and shield the Earth from some of the sun’s energy. Air pollution control in the future could reduce this cooling effect and increase warming rates beyond those currently experienced.

Research on air quality and climate change feedbacks is continuing in Europe through the Pan-European Gas-AeroSOls-climate Interaction Study (PEGASOS). PEGASOS is focused on five fundamental questions, including how this type of information can be used to influence relevant policy. Air pollution is a transcontinental issue, and regional and international air pollution policies can have significant effects within Canada’s borders. For example, research suggests that over 40% of airborne polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in coastal British Columbia originate in Asia. Across North America, nearly half of the aerosol inventory derives from Asia and comprises mostly dust, not combustion products. The amount of dust in the atmosphere is dependent on yet another climate change feedback, as hotter and drier conditions may increase the extent of desert regions where such dust originates. In order to be effective, modeling of aerosol and climate change feedbacks must take place at multiple scales: local, regional, intercontinental, and global.

Research Theme IV: Social mobilization

Wind farm health effects may be generated by expectations, rather than exposure

March 1, 2013.  Recent research into health effects of wind turbines indicates that it may be the public’s expectations of their operation, rather than any direct effects from the turbines themselves, that cause an increase in reported health complaints. In a study conducted at the University of Auckland, researchers tested subaudible sound (infrasound) to determine if there was a pathophysiological link between health effects and wind farms, and the findings are surprising. Study participants were exposed to either infrasound, or a “sham” sound, which is known to have no ill health effects. Participants were then given access to information about potential side effects of infrasound, and then asked to report the effects they felt after exposure. The findings suggest that healthy volunteers, when given information about the expected impacts of infrasound were likely to report symptoms, whether they were exposed to “sham” sound or infrasound. The study’s findings further suggest that information available on the Internet could serve to create expectations in a ‘real world’ setting, which could explain the link between health complaints and wind farms.

Expectations can play a key role in determining public acceptability of a new technology or industry. In British Columbia, wind farms could play an increasing role in supplying significant power to the grid in the future. At present, BC Hydro has signed Electricity Purchase Agreements (EPAs) with three wind farms in British Columbia, two of which are operational in the north-central part of the province: Bear Mountain (102 MW capacity) and Dokie Ridge (144 MW capacity). A third wind farm, Krob Hill, near Cape Scott on northern Vancouver Island is under construction and at full capacity will add up to 99 MW of electricity to the grid. Each of these farms is far from residential developments and pose no concerns with respect to perceived health impacts. However, as additional wind power is developed in future in the Province, it will be important to ensure that the public is supplied with accurate, scientifically credible information about wind farms so that expectations don’t lead to erroneous perceptions of health effects.

Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests

Two valleys and two stories on the impact of climate change

March 14, 2013.  Researchers from Switzerland have found that a two degree rise in global temperatures could have dramatic and varying effects on mountainous forests. Led by researchers from ETH Zurich, the scientists sought to understand how the ecological benefits of forests – such as storing carbon, providing wood, and preventing landslides – might be impacted by a warming climate. They did so using computer simulations and climate scenarios. They compared two valleys, one drier and with a greater elevation range, the other wetter and closer to sea level. The drier valley would be more susceptible to climate change, as the predicted loss of precipitation would harm forests, particularly at lower elevations. The wetter valley may experience an increase in biomass, as warmer temperatures let trees grow longer. A longer growing season would bolster the ability of the forest to mitigate landslides and avalanches. The scientists concluded that due to the regional variation in the impacts of climate change, managers need to closely consider adaptation strategies, such as forest thinning to help mitigate drought, and planting different mixes of species better suited to warmer temperatures.

Seventy five percent of BC is mountainous, the province has fourteen distinct tree growth zones, and 60% of the landscape is forested. It is fair to say that the lessons from the valleys of Switzerland – regional variability in climate change and the need to adapt – apply here. Scientists are trying assisted migration and specific projects including planting whitebark pine saplings under the Peak2Peak Gondola on Blackcomb Mountain, in the hopes of saving a tree with a rapidly shifting growing zone. BC is also witnessing first-hand the impacts of a changing climate, from the massive outbreak of mountain pine beetle, to historical levels of forest fires, to dieback of yellow cedars on the North Coast. Recently, the auditor general worried that the government’s inventory of BC’s forests is incomplete and in need of revision. To understand how different regions will change with a warmer climate, accurate inventory information and high-resolution climate modeling will be required.

Also in the news

German research institute pulls out of Canadian tar sands project

Warmer climate boosts northern crops but the bad soon outweighs the good

Obama will use Nixon-era law to fight climate change

EEA report highlights shipping’s impact on air quality and climate change

Computer models show how deep carbon could return to earth’s surface

Transportation study reveals potential for deep cuts to petroleum use and carbon emissions

Reducing fuel consumption of truck engines

Download pdf version: PICS Climate News Scan – 26 March 2013

Photo Credit: ART-Ko

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.

Some highlights from this week’s News Scan:

The PICS News Scan is produced by ISIS at the Sauder School of Business and the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS). To be added to the News Scan distribution list Subscribe Here or to provide content feedback and/or suggestions about interesting news items, please email: picsscan@uvic.ca.

Research Theme I: The low carbon emissions economy

The role of agriculture in responding to climate change

February 28, 2013.  The global food system, from fertilizer manufacturing to soil management and transportation, is responsible for up to 12 percent of all human-caused greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For the first time, a study has investigated the full range of agricultural factors that contribute to GHG emissions, in hopes of finding answers as to how emissions can be reduced. Focusing on crop and dairy farms, a team of scientists has found that fossil fuel consumption, nitrogen fertilizers and pesticides were among the main sources of carbon dioxide emissions in agriculture. Some strategies outlined for landholders to effectively offset rising emissions are: to grow feed rather than to purchase it; to increase nitrogen fertilizer efficiency by streamlining production processes; and to incorporate a diversified crop rotation strategy. Most interestingly, investigations show that crop yields and GHG emissions fluctuate significantly between different farms – for organic and conventional –- pointing to the individual know-how of farm managers and their role in improving a farm’s greenhouse gas balance.

Overall, BC’s agriculture sector is a relatively small contributor to GHG emissions. According to the British Columbia Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report 2010, 3.3% of B.C.’s greenhouse gas emissions were attributed to agriculture, with main sources including emissions from livestock, manure management and deforestation. Despite its relatively small carbon footprint, the BC Agriculture Council and the Investment Agriculture Foundation created the Climate Action Initiative to improve collective industry knowledge on the implications of climate change and how to better address climate change issues. By focusing on educational opportunities, developing effective technical support and incentivizing BC’s farms to reduce emissions voluntarily, the province is encouraging the growth of a low carbon agricultural sector in BC.

Research Theme II: Sustainable communities

New model refines CO₂ emission estimates for transport

February 27, 2013.  Researchers at Boston University recently developed a new model that takes a different approach to measuring on-road vehicle emissions:  provision of regional scale estimates, something that was challenging in the past due to incorrect methodology. Existing models typically rely on household characteristics to estimate vehicle trips generated and then distribute those trips across the road network. This in turn determines the emissions based on population and road density. This assumes, for instance, a fixed relationship between emissions and road density, which is likely not the case due to variation in roadway types and rural-urban differences. This new model gets around this problem by using data on average daily traffic volumes in conjunction with information on the distance traveled by different vehicle types. Annual per-mile CO₂ emissions can then be estimated for each section of road, making the model highly localized and region specific.

The ability to estimate carbon emissions at a local level is important for planning. Urban form and characteristics of the built environment, such as population density, jobs-housing balance, and a diversity of land uses, have a significant impact on the intensity of emissions. With the implementation of Official Community Plans in British Columbia there is now a requirement for communities to have GHG emission reduction targets, and to accurately measure and track the results. Only with precise emission estimates will the true impacts of policy changes and decisions be known, and subsequently revised, so that targets can be met. Additionally, in order for municipalities to access Gas Tax Agreement money to help address infrastructure needs, they are now required to demonstrate that they are engaging in sustainability planning, which returns to the need to track progress locally.

Research Theme III: Resilient ecosystems

The ACT framework: addressing impacts through collaboration

February 27, 2013.  Recently in Conservation Biology, US researchers published the outcomes of a series of workshops designed to bring scientists and natural resource managers together to address climate change impacts. The article discusses a practical collaborative planning framework called Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT). ACT focuses on mobilizing adaptation to climate change by producing informed, measurable management goals. Through two-day workshops, participants went from being unsure about the local effects of climate change to developing and refining actions to address impacts on species or ecosystems. Actions were prioritized on the basis of relative feasibility, effectiveness, cost, and applicability under two different scenarios of climate change. The ACT process also facilitated multiple agencies and organizations working together to implement actions. One participant commented on the practical nature of the process, saying “climate change workshops… are mostly just depressing. This one was different because there was a focus on the huge variety of things that we can do.”

Mobilizing responses to climate change can be difficult, especially when the task is complex. This can be said of biodiverse regions like BC, where there are 91 different biogeoclimatic subzones and tens of thousands of species. Conservation demands will always overwhelm resources, which mean prioritization is critical. In BC, the Conservation Framework (CF) was developed to guide the allocation of scarce resources. Managers are expected to identify conservation challenges before using the framework and then rank possible management actions based on previously obtained scientific data and existing conservation statuses. The CF does not foster collaboration between scientists and managers, nor does it necessarily address local climate change impacts. Local data may not exist or be insufficient, leaving resource managers with the problematic task of interpreting how climate change will affect their management priorities. Standardizing a process like the ACT may help ensure that all management decisions fully address possible climate change impacts.

Research Theme IV: Social mobilization

New school curriculum could shift climate debate

March 4^th, 2013.  Despite the intensely polarized debate over climate change in the US, skepticism over the issue is about to be removed from the curriculum in many of America’s classrooms. The newly announced Next Generation Science Standards recommend teachers begin to introduce the evidence for anthropogenic climate change within elementary school-level science classes, and educate about the full effects of man-made climate change by grade eight. Twenty six states, the National Research Council, the National Science Teachers Association, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science jointly developed the standards. When implemented, these new teaching standards will have the ability to dramatically shift not only the conversation in America’s classrooms, but among the public at large. According to a spokesperson for the National Centre for Science Education, the standards are ‘revolutionary’. In the US, education standards are set at the state level and McGraw-Hill, the country’s largest textbook producer anticipates 80-90% of US states will choose to adopt the standards endorsed by the National Research council.

In British Columbia, the Green Schools initiative led by the Ministry of Education presents a series of strategies and programs that enhance environmental sustainability within BC’s school system and through curriculum, and by ensuring that school infrastructure meets the same ‘green’ standards that are being taught to students. The program includes sustainability course content in both English and French, and additionally provides teachers with grade-level specific climate change lesson plans, tailored to students from kindergarten through to grade 12. The initiative also dovetails with the Carbon Neutral Action Plan, which requires all British Columbia public sector organizations including schools to make their operations carbon neutral, and the Climate Action Revenue Incentive Charter, which reimburses carbon tax payments to BC School Boards that have signed onto the charter agreement.

Research Theme V: Carbon management in BC forests

Seeing the forest for the carbon

February 27, 2013.  The Sierra Club, an environmental group, released a report suggesting that the logging of old growth forests releases an enormous amount of carbon. They claim that in 2011, 5,700 hectares of old growth forest was logged on Vancouver Island and the lower mainland. This released 3 million tonnes of carbon, equivalent to all the official carbon savings claimed by the BC government between 2007 and 2010. The report rests on the idea that once an old growth forest is logged, its carbon has been emitted. This is an idea that industry groups dispute, suggesting that the resulting products of logging – houses and furniture for example – can in fact store the carbon present in the trees logged. The report comes at a politically charged time, while the BC government looks for new sources of fibre for an industry facing a shortage.

At its heart, the report represents a disagreement over methodology. The Sierra Club worries that carbon from old growth forests is immediately released back to the atmosphere, impeding efforts to slow climate change. Industry representatives believe that the carbon from logging is embedded in the final products, and point out that forests are re-planted after harvesting. These replanted forests absorb new carbon quickly, but store very little. An old growth forest absorbs very little new carbon, but represents a massive existing sink. The reality lies somewhere in between, and measuring it requires sophisticated lifecycle accounting that scientists are still developing. However, converting a massive carbon sink into an area with the potential to absorb new carbon introduces non-carbon issues: for example, old growth forests with a litany of non-carbon values are lost in the process.

Also in the news

Global warming could corrode shallow reefs sooner than forecast

South Africa to introduce carbon tax from 2015

Swift reaction as Shell suspends 2013 Arctic Alaska offshore drilling

US scientists report big jump in heat-trapping CO2

Climate change will test newly understood resilience in plants

Wall Street begins to grapple with climate change

Sequester this: US consumers paid a 2.7% climate disruption tax in 2012

Download pdf version: PICS Climate News Scan – 12 March 2013

Photo Credit: Richard Masoner

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/ or send a letter to Creative Commons, 171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco, California, 94105, USA.

Could a spate of recent crowdfunding success stories, and new services to cater to them, give hope to cleantech/greentech entrepreneurs caught in an early stage capital squeeze? Dallas Kachan of Vancouver-based cleantech research and analysis firm Kachan & Co. weighs in with thoughts here.