It’s a gorgeous morning with bright blue skies and lush, green grass. Finally, we have some good news about bad weather! After enjoying temperatures in the 70s and 80s a month ago, we are now seeing more normal temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s with rain in town and snow in the mountains. That being said, we are still in a severe drought. Our snowpack in the mountains is down to 13% of median for this time of year.

Our local water company, Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD), has already started stage one drought restrictions. This means you can only water your lawn between 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 a.m. Restaurants will only serve water upon request, and the cost of water is going up.

The drought and associated concerns about wildfires may impact your wallet in other ways. The State of Colorado is mandating new building restrictions to make new homes more fireproof. The state is trying to get out ahead of the situation that other states like California and Florida are facing, where home insurance is becoming increasingly difficult to get. These new regulations are known as the Colorado Wildfire Resiliency Code. Among other things, the new rules require more fire-resistant building materials and techniques for siding, decking, roofing, and doors.

If you’d like more information, you can read about it here:
https://dfpc.colorado.gov/cwrc-what-and-why

Enforcement of the new requirements begins July 1st. There has been a rush of building activity lately as builders try to get their projects in before the new rules start and costs go up. I was in a meeting recently with Randy Betts, who is a building official for Archuleta County. He estimated that the new rules would only cause costs to rise about 2%. But, I have also spoken to several different builders in town, and they think we are looking at a 10% to 15% increase in new construction costs under the new rules.

The increased cost of new construction may affect the value of existing homes as well. If it costs more to build a new house, this can also cause the value of an existing home to rise.

One little piece of good news is that the downtown highway reconstruction project seems to be moving right along. I’ve seen a lot of concrete being poured in recent days. It seems like much of the utility work has been completed. Hopefully, that means we’ll have more of the road work finished by the busy Memorial Day holiday. The project is not due to be completely finished until later this fall.

Now for the latest real estate news. The total number of sales year-to-date is down 24% with 151 sales so far this year compared to 199 last year. Home sales are pretty flat. They are only down 5% with 81 this year versus 77 last year. Condo and townhome sales are half of what they were last year. We’ve had 10 sales so far this year compared to 20 last year. Vacant land sales are way down by 35% with 60 this year versus 92 last year.

Inventory is up 20% in the residential category. Condo & townhome sales are down slightly by 3%. Vacant land inventory is up 9%.

The big story in April is that the total number of sales for the month was way down. We had 41 sales in April compared to 63 last April, which his a 35% decline. Pending sales are flat with 61 today versus 60 a year ago. For more details, check out all the graphs and stats included here.

So, why was April so sluggish? We probably could have predicted a slow month looking at last month’s pending sales, which were way down. We had 62 pending sales last month compared to 77 the previous year. In general, the residential market has been flat. The condo and townhome market is softer to due major increases in HOA fees, which are caused in great part by increases in insurance rates.

Vacant land sales are where we see the greatest decline. The cost of building a new home is part of the story. For example, the cost of hooking up to PAWSD water and sewer has tripled in the last few years. It used to cost $9,000, and now it costs $29,000 to hook up to the water and sewer system. The quality of available home sites is also declining. Most of the cherries have already been picked and built on.

The lower end of the residential spectrum is more heavily influenced by interest rates. Before the war with Iran started, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 5.99%. It went as high at 6.62% on March 26. Currently, the 30-year fixed rate is at 6.50% and the 15-year is at 6.03%. These rates have jumped due to gas and oil prices skyrocketing. We will have a new Fed chairman coming on board May 15, and I’m sure he would like to cut rates, but the market is suggesting only one rate cut this year if any.

The war is keeping some buyers and sellers on the sidelines waiting to see what happens. If the war ends soon, I think it will jump start the market.

So long for now! Enjoy the spring flowers, think positively, and make today a great day! I want to send out a big thanks to our military and their families for their sacrifice on our behalf, especially those who suddenly find themselves in harm’s way.

Lately, the weather has been gorgeous if you like warm temperatures and sunny skies. Yesterday my wife, Laurie, and our golden retriever, Archie, and I all headed for Navajo Lake loaded up with lawn chairs, fishing poles, and Subway sandwiches. We were not disappointed with 70-degree temperatures. I didn’t catch any fish, but Archie had a ball fetching sticks from the lake. As I’m enjoying this springtime weather, I know we desperately need moisture. Fortunately, 10 days ago we received a big dump of snow. Wolf Creek Ski Area received 5 feet of snow, and Pagosa got 16” to 24” depending on where you live. Our moisture content jumped from 43% to 60% of normal. I’ve been told that we would need two more storms like this to catch up to where we should be. Unfortunately, we do not expect much moisture in the next 10-day forecast. With conditions this way, we worry about water rationing, a poor rafting season, and fires this summer.

I recently spoke with James Dikhoff, who is the Development Director for the Town of Pagosa Springs. I asked him what was happening with the reconstruction of the San Juan River after the major flood we experienced last fall. The Town has been working on the section of the river near the Malt Shoppe and will be fixing several other sections that were negatively impacted by the flood. The Town has already received $3 million in grant money for this project, and they expect this will give them enough funds to complete the work scheduled for this year. However, they expect they will need an additional $3 million to finish the entire project. Unfortunately, our request to get those funds from FEMA was denied. In order to cover the shortfall, the Town will have a special election on April 7 to ask the voters to approve a loan instead. I’m told this will not impact anybody’s taxes. I’m concerned that the current state of the river may compromise our summer rafting season. Several sections of the river channel were rearranged by the flood, and they may not be passable in their current state. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Another top-of-mind issue in Pagosa is the construction zone downtown. I just spoke with someone at the Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT), and she informed me that they are about to ramp up their construction crew starting March 16. I hope they will prioritize the section of highway downtown in front of the movie theater and the old county courthouse. That would sure help the downtown merchants this summer.

Now for the latest real estate news. The total number of real estate sales year-to-date is down 26% with 61 sales this year compared to 82 last year at this time. Home sales are up slightly with 30 this year versus 28 last year. Condo & townhome sales are down slightly with 5 this year versus 8 last year. If you look at all the home, condo, and townhome sales taken together, the market is flat.

The reason the overall sales numbers are down so dramatically is due to vacant land sales, which have plummeted 50% from last year. We’ve sold just 22 vacant lots this year compared to 44 last year at this time.

Sales in the month of February were way down, with 28 completed sales in February 2026 compared to 52 sales in 2025. Pending sales are also soft, with 43 this year versus 70 last year.

On the other side of the coin, inventory is up. Home inventory is up 16% and land inventory is up 7%, while condo inventory is flat.

So far this year, the numbers compared to last year are dreary. The first quarter of 2025 was the strongest part of the year last year. Sales went down during the following 9 months.

Now for some good news! Interest rates are down. The 30-year fixed rate is 6.13% and the 15-year is 5.75%. The 30-year fixed rate was at 5.99% a week ago. This reflects what has happened since the war started.

As I look into my crystal ball, as long as the war doesn’t get out of control, I expect the market to improve as we get further into the year. The number of sales will increase, but prices will stay flat. It is still a buyer’s market. Sellers will need to price competitively, or their real estate will sit on the shelf and will depreciate with time. If you are a buyer, you will see more inventory to choose from, and you will be more able to negotiate, especially at the higher end of the market. Make sure you check out all the graphs and stats for the full story.

So long for now! Be watching for spring flowers to start popping up. Think positive and smile a lot. Thanks again to all our troops overseas and their families at home. We appreciate all they do for us.

The biggest story of the year was the weather. For the second winter in a row, we have had very low snow totals. So far this year, we are about half the normal moisture for the region. I have no snow in my yard. Temperatures have been running 10 to 15 degrees above the average, which is 38 degrees. I’ve been feeling guilty for loving the fall in the middle of winter. Hopefully the second half of winter brings a lot of moisture.

Wolf Creek Ski Area has received 81 inches of snow so far this year with 44 inches at the summit, 37 inches midway, and the mountain is 100% open. Even though these totals are way below the average, they are still the best of any ski area around – Telluride, Purgatory, and Santa Fe are barely open. Wolf Creek was busy over the holiday season. The rumor is that they had a record day of over 6700 skiers on the mountain.

The weather has been feast or famine in the recent past. The only thing that saved us from drying out completely last fall was a record flood in October. The mountains received 10” of rain over just a couple of days. The San Juan River through town ran out of its banks. It was the third worst flood in the history of Pagosa. It is estimated that the floodwaters caused $13 million in damage. Thankfully, there was no loss of life. The flooding only lasted for three or four days, but it made national news, and the notoriety was not good for our local economy. Plenty of people canceled their reservations when they saw the floods on television, thinking that there would be no town left to come visit! The town is still here, but our tourist stays were way down last fall.

The second big story of the year was the highway construction going through downtown. Half of the road was torn up so they could put in new utilities, infrastructure, replace the asphalt with concrete, and replace the sidewalks. Most of the first half of the roadway is now complete, and they’ve moved the project over to the other side. The goal is to have everything complete by the end of 2026.

All this construction has put a real strain on our local downtown merchants. During the construction, downtown parking has been more difficult, and it’s certainly not as pleasant to walk around as it usually is. If you can, I encourage you to go out of your way to give the downtown stores your support. Once all this work is finally complete, I’m sure it will be wonderful downtown!

Now for the latest real estate news. The dust has settled on 2025. The overall number of real estate sales was down 5% for the year. There were 652 completed transactions compared to 686 in 2024. Home sales were up 1% and condo & townhome sales were up 13%. These gains were offset by a 15% decline in vacant land sales.

Sales for the month of December were up slightly with 50 sales this December compared to 48 a year ago. Pending sales at the moment are down, with 39 transactions currently in progress versus 54 a year ago.

2025 started off strong with first quarter sales up 18% overall. Things then slowed down for the rest of year until the last two months, when they were once again up slightly. Make sure you check out all the stats and graphs to see a full picture of the market.

So, what are my predictions for 2026? I expect the real estate market to pick up this coming year. Mortgage rates are down about one percent from last year at this time. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently at 6.01% and a 15-year is at 5.55%. If you are purchasing what I consider a “middle of the road” Pagosa Springs home, the price will be somewhere around $600,000. With a 20% down payment, you are left with a mortgage of $480,000. Due to lower interest rates, your mortgage payment will be about $244 less than it would have been a year ago.

It’s been four years since rates were in the 3% range, so buyers are getting used to the new normal. Rates are expect to range from 5.9% to 6.3% unless the economy starts to falter. Then the Fed may jump in and reduce rates further.

I expect real estate prices to stay flat or increase just slightly. Homes priced below $750,000 are in the greatest demand. If they are priced correctly, they should sell relatively easily at 95% to 97% of asking price. Million dollar home owners are going to find things more challenging. Sellers may need to sharpen their pencils to get the pricing right in order to get the job done.

Some additional good news is that the stock market is doing well. That should help grease the wheels to help the real estate market. One last thing that is changing is that AI is becoming more important in real estate decision making, especially for buyers when they are weighing their options.

So long for now! I hope you and your family have a healthy and prosperous New Year. Think positive, have fun, be happy, and smile a lot!

As I look out my window this morning, there are no clouds – just blue skies! The weather has been gorgeous, if you enjoy warm temperatures without rain or snow. Today it is supposed to get up to 65 degrees, which is about 15 degrees above the average for this time of year. There is still no snow in the mountains. Last year, Wolf Creek Ski Area was the first in the nation to open. Hopefully, this year it will be open by Thanksgiving.

It’s either a feast or a famine around here! Two weeks ago, we had historic flooding. We had the third and fourth biggest floods in Pagosa history. I’ve seen estimates of $26 million in damage. The San Juan River was way outside its banks through downtown. The good news is there was no loss of life. Now the Town and the County are working with various Federal and State agencies looking for grant money to repair the damage.

The other big story downtown is we are getting close to completion of the first phase of the highway construction project. Half of the roadway has been closed through town as they rebuild the highway out of concrete rather than asphalt. They are also putting in new utility infrastructure and new sidewalks. This portion of the project is scheduled to be completed by December 14th. The whole roadway should be re-opened for the ski season, and next spring they will finish the job. But at least we’ll be open for the winter!

Now for the latest real estate news. The total number of real estate transactions so far this year is down 7% compared to last year. We’ve had 549 sales compared to 592 last year at this time. Home sales are down 5% with 261 this year versus 275 last year. Condo and townhome sales are up 5% with 61 this year compared to 58 last year. Vacant land sales are down 11% with 216 this year versus 243 last year. Residential inventory is up 22% with 221 homes on the market today compared to 181 last year at this time. Condo and townhome inventory is up 16% with 43 this year versus 37 last year. Vacant land inventory is down 1% with 346 this year compared to 349 last year.

Among home sales, the higher price categories have been hit the hardest. Sales of homes above $750,000 are down 19% so far this year. Inventory is up 48%.

We’ve seen a stark difference between the first part of 2025 and the latter part. Total sales in the first quarter of 2025 were up 18%. But since April 1st, total sales have been down 16%. To see the full story, check out all the charts and stats included here.

Now for some good news. Interest rates have been trending down. As of today, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is at 6.34% and the 15-year is at 5.82%. About two weeks ago, the Federal Reserve reduced the prime rate rate for the second time. The day before that happened, a 30-year mortgage was at 6.13%. Now it is 6.34% This can be confusing – the prime rate went down, but mortgage rates went up. The Fed rate and the bond markets are at odds with each other at the moment.

We are expecting another prime rate reduction in December. I’m hoping to see mortgage rates close to 6.0% by the end of year, and I’m expecting 5.5% in the middle of 2026. If that happens, I expect the housing market to take off.

In the meantime, if you are a buyer looking for a good deal, the time to act is now. Most sellers are very motivated this time of year. If a property is listed, the seller is not looking forward to holding it through another winter. They are usually ready to wheel and deal.

So long for now! I sure hope that Congress gets their act together soon to get the government back up and running again. I don’t know about you, but I’m sure tired of listening to everybody blaming the other side.

The kids are back in school, there’s a lot less traffic on the roads, and the temperatures are ideal – morning temperatures are in the 40s and daytime temperatures are in the 70s. The biggest negative out there is lack of rain. The summer monsoons were a no-show this year. Combined with very little snow last winter, this has put us into a drought situation. The rivers are very low and unfishable. The creek that runs through my property is dry, and my trout pond, along with most of the other lakes in the region, is way down. Hopefully, this coming winter will be a big one! We need the snow!

Around town, the highway construction project downtown seems to be coming along according to schedule. It has been a pain for the merchants in the area, so whenever possible, please stop in and spend some money with them to get them through this time of turmoil. The north side of the highway should be completed this fall, and next year they will finish the other side. When all this dust settles, the whole stretch will be better than ever with concrete roads, new sidewalks, and new utilities underneath the road.

Now for the latest real estate news. Total year-to-date sales are down 4% with 414 transactions this year compared to 433 sales last year and 595 sales way back in 2022. For the fifth month in a row, the number of sales has been down compared to the previous year. Total sales in August were 57 compared to 81 last year. August is usually a very busy month for us, and this was our slowest August since 2012. Pending sales were down as well with 98 today compared to 116 a year ago. That means September sales will likely follow the same trend.

Looking more closely at the numbers, the strongest part of our housing market is the price range from $600,000 to $750,000. The softest is the high-end homes over $1,000,000. Inventory of homes is up 26% over last year with the biggest increase in the $1,000,000+ range. Condo and townhome sales are up just slightly, and the inventory is pretty flat. Vacant land sales are where we have seen the biggest decline. Vacant land sales are down 11% with 165 this year versus 185 last year. The softest part of that market is parcels between one-half and three acres, which are mostly in the Aspen Springs area.

See all the stats and check out the graphs below.

Some brighter news is mortgage rates are down. A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is now at 6.29% and a 15-year is at 5.60% for a primary residence. Rates for second homes and rentals are typically up another quarter- to half-percent higher. I’m expecting the Federal Reserve to cut the prime rate a quarter-percent in September with maybe another cut in December. Hopefully, we are in the mid-5’s by the middle of next year. Once we get there, I think it will spark the market and get the buyers off the sidelines.

The buyers are out there, but they are being very selective in looking for good deals. I listed a home last Saturday, and we had six showings on Sunday and three offers on Monday with the home selling above asking price. The reason this happened is my sellers were motivated, and we priced the home aggressively. That’s the secret sauce if you want to sell in today’s market!

So long for now! Get out and enjoy this beautiful fall season. Smell the roses and smile a lot!

And happy 249th birthday, USA! Let’s get ready to celebrate!

It’s going to be a very busy weekend, but this year will be different from the past 42 Independence Days I’ve experienced here in Pagosa. With the Highway 160 construction going on downtown, the parade is a no-go. Instead, we will have a Stars & Stripes Stroll – a walking parade honoring our veterans and first responders. This will happen at Yamaguchi Park, which is located just east of the high school on the river. Yamaguchi Park will also be hosting an event with food, beer, and a free concert starting at 5:00 p.m. Then later on at 9:30 p.m., the fireworks should go off, depending on fire conditions. There will also be a concert earlier in the day at the Springs Resort featuring patriotic music beginning at 2:00 p.m.

If you need to cool off, join in on the Freedom Float. Grab an inner tube and your best red, white, and blue and jump in the river. That starts at 1:00 p.m. Of course, we will still have the Arts & Crafts Fair with lots of food and a beer garden that goes for three days starting at 10:00 a.m. on the 3rd through the 5th. Last but not least is the 75th Annual Red Ryder Rodeo which is also a 3-day event on the 3rd, 4th, and 5th.

I want to remind you that the downtown merchants have been struggling to survive due to the major reconstruction of the highway in front of their businesses. Please go out of your way to shop and eat and drink with them. They really need your support.

Now for the latest real estate news. Total year-to-date sales are up 3% with 302 this year versus 292 last year. Home sales are up 12%, condo and townhome sales are up 3%, and vacant land sales are down 5%.

Looking at the numbers for the first half of the year shows two different stories. In the first quarter, sales were up, and in the second quarter, sales were down. Sales and pending contracts have both been soft for the past three months in a row.

June sales were down 25% with 45 this year compared to 60 in 2024. Pending sales are the same story; down 25% with 65 this year compared to 87 last year and 117 back in 2023. With pending sales low, it’s likely that sales next month will be down again.

This downward trend in the market coincides with the announcement of tariffs and the accompanying stock market turmoil. Many people’s 401Ks took a hit during this time. The good news is that the market has since bounced back, but there is still uncertainty as to what the effect of the tariffs will be. In the meantime, the Fed is sitting on the fence holding off on lower interest rates in order to see what the tariffs will do to the economy.

In the meantime, mortgage rates which had been hovering in the 7% range have recently started to come down. A 30-year mortgage is currently at 6.67% and a 15-year is at 5.91%. This is the lowest we’ve seen for several months. Accompanied buy a slowing job market, this may give the Fed a reason to drop the prime rate as early as September. I’m expecting one or two rate cuts this year and more to come in 2026. All this being said, I don’t expect much of a rebound in our local real estate market until mortgage rates get below 6%.

We’ve been talking about sales, now let’s talk about inventory. Home inventory is up about 26% with 255 homes on the market today compared to 202 a year ago and 168 back in 2023. Inventory for condos and townhomes is flat along with vacant land. There have been 56 building permits issues for new homes so far this year compared to 78 at this time last year. Make sure to check out all of the charts and stats included here.

We are now in a buyer’s market. Buyers are still willing to pay top dollar for a cherry, but they are cautious and looking for a good deal. My sellers fall into two camps. Some of them have to sell, and some of them will only sell if they get their price.

The majority of sellers think their home is the prettiest one on the block, and they are hoping to get top dollar. Unfortunately, this leads them to overprice in a down market. They think that they are leaving themselves room to negotiate with an offer on the table, but the reality is that this strategy rarely works.

The truth is that you get the most attention and the most showings in the first week your property is on the market. If your property sits on the market too long, buyers begin to think there is something wrong with it, and they’ll offer less than they otherwise would have. If you price aggressively from the start, you have a much better chance of getting multiple offers and putting more money in your pocket in the long run.

So long for now! I hope you and your family have a fabulous 4th of July. I want to give a special thanks to our military, their families, and our first responders.

As I look out my window this morning, I’m excited to see cloudy skies. The weatherman says we are expecting rain off and on for the next couple of days. This is great news since we had such a mild winter. We really need the moisture badly. Our snowpack in the mountains is currently at 27% of median for this time of year, and we are in a Category 2 drought.

With this drought situation, we always worry about fires in the summer. The local governmental agencies including the Forest Service, the Town, the County, and the fire departments have all been getting together to make a plan so that they are ready if there is a need.

There are two other major news stories happening downtown. The big one is the reconstruction of Highway 160 going right through the center of town. The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) is removing all the asphalt to be replaced with concrete. Concrete is supposed to hold up better with less maintenance. While the road is torn up, the Town is upgrading all the utilities in the roadway. This project started a couple weeks ago and will go on through the Fall of 2026. This project is making it extremely difficult for the merchants along main street downtown, as parking is limited and traffic congestion is heavy at times. With that being said, I encourage all the locals and the tourists who come to town to make an extra effort to buy locally. Visit the restaurants. Go out of your way to give a helping hand in this time of need.

The second happening is the Springs Resort recently completed their expansion project, adding 78 more rooms and 25 more geothermal pools. There are now a total of 157 rooms and 53 hot spring pools. The new restaurant is due to open soon.

Now for the latest real estate news. The total number of real estate sales is up 16 percent for the year with 199 sales so far this year compared to 171 last year. Home sales are up 27%, townhome sales are up 25%, and land sales are up 10%. The most notable increase was in homes priced at $600,000 to $750,000, which were up 217%. Another stat worth mentioning was vacant land sales in the 3-to-6 acre range were up 111%. Some more good news is inventories are up. Home inventory is up 31%, and townhome inventory is up 19%, but vacant land inventory is down slightly by 4%.

The biggest negative in last month’s numbers were the pending sales, which were way down from last year. We have 60 pending sales in the hopper today compared to 84 last year at this time. Most of these pending sales are deals that came together in the last 30 days or so. The drop in pending sales coincides with the large drop in the stock market which happened about the same time. Many buyers saw their 401K retirement funds take a hit, and the ensuing volatility has made them nervous. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines for now, waiting to see what happens in the next couple of months.

Interest rates have also been on a roller coast ride recently, swinging from 6.6% up to 7.25%. Today’s 30-year mortgage is 6.81% and the 15-year is at 6.17%. I expect interest rates for the near future to stay in that same range until we have a little bit more clarity about what the future has in store for us.

So long for now. Go out and smell the Spring flowers! Think positive – the glass is half full. Please go downtown and help the local merchants by spending an extra dollar or two. They really need it!

The biggest story around town continues to be the weather – warm and dry! The snowpack in our mountains is at 63% of median for this time of year. Wolf Creek Ski Area is reporting 58” of snow at the summit with total snowfall year-to-date at 143”. Yesterday got up to 64 degrees in town, which is about 20 degrees above average. It looks like we have a decent chance of getting some rain and snow later in the week, which will certainly be welcome. If we don’t get a lot of moisture this spring, we’ll likely be smelling smoke this summer.

Even with the lack of snow this year, town continues to stay very busy, and it’s going to get even busier over the next several weeks as the Spring Break crowds come in from Texas and Oklahoma. This is the last big surge before the offseason. All the local merchants depend on this bump in traffic to get them through the slower months until we start up again in the summer. After Spring Break, it’s usually mud season, but this year we don’t have any snow on the ground to melt and make mud!

The other story that’s increasingly being discussed around town is the big highway construction project which will soon start on main street downtown. Traffic will be cut down to one lane in each direction as they replace the asphalt between 1st Street and 8th Street with concrete. They are also going to install some new crosswalks, sidewalks, and ramps. While they’ve got the highway torn apart, various local utilities will have the opportunity to make upgrades and repairs underneath the roadway. The project will begin March 24th and is scheduled to last into the fall of 2026.

Now for the latest real estate news. In general, the first couple of months of 2025 have been fairly positive. The overall number of sales is up 7% over last year. Vacant land and condo sales are up while home sales are down. Inventory is up across the board. Inventory is up by 233% in the price range of $400,000 to $500,000, while sales are down 56% in the same category. The buyers in this category are generally reliant on financing, and mortgage rates are still pretty high. This may be the reason why this sector of the market is dragging.

A 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is currently averaging 6.74%, and a 15-year is at 6.25%. This is lower than it was a month ago as rates have come down about a half percent. I’m not overly optimistic that we’re going to see much of a change in the near future, but I hope I’m wrong!

We’ve had 8 condo sales compared to 6 last year at this time, and available inventory is up to 35 compared to 21 last year. This is a shocking increase from 2022, when there were only 3 condos available on the market! Land sales were up 22% compared to last year, and inventory is nearly flat. Both January and February saw increases in sales over 2024, and the pending sales are up as well. This sets a positive tone for the rest of the year. Make sure you check out the stats & graphs for the full picture.

The last thing I want to talk to you about is building costs. I talked to the folks at Ponderosa Lumber, who provide most of the building materials to home builders in our area. Lumber prices are flat, or even down slightly, which is great news for building costs. I talked to a couple of home builders as well, and they reported pretty much the same thing. It’s hard to predict whether any tariffs will go into effect in Canada. If they do, it might effect local lumber prices. We’ll have to wait and see.

Since we’ve had such a mild winter, the local builders are off to an early start on their 2025 projects. The weather has not been as big an issue for them as it has been in recent years. This is good news if you’re a builder and you’ve got to get your projects dried in before the snow starts to fly.

So long for now! Remember to stop and smell the daffodils, which should be coming up any day now!

I hope you and your family had a wonderful holiday season. My wife Laurie and I spent Christmas in Denver with my son, Patrick, daughter, Heather, and her husband, John, along with the four grandchildren. Let’s not forget the newest member of the family; Archie – our new golden retriever puppy! A great time was had by all.

The big news around town is no snow! I have lived here for 41 years, and this is the driest and warmest I can ever remember. Even with the lack of snow, both the town and the ski area were busy. Wolf Creek Ski Area has 48 inches of snow at the summit, which is well below the average of 69 inches we normally have this time of year. Our snowpack in the mountains is at 79 percent of median.

Personally, I am really enjoying this balmy weather, but if we don’t get a big dump of snow soon, we will be covered in smoke this summer. There is still a lot of winter to go, so there is no need to panic just yet.

Now for the latest real estate news. We have closed the books on 2024, and the year turned out to be pretty uneventful. The overall number of real estate sales was up a whopping one percent, with 686 total transactions in 2024 compared to 679 in 2023. Home sales were down 5%, and home sales priced below $600,000 were down 29%. On the flip side, home sales priced above $1,000,000 were up 42%, with 71 sales this year versus 50 last year. Inventory of available homes is up 25%.

The reason for the discrepancy between the price classes is interest rates. High-end buyers tend to pay cash, and entry-level buyers need to get a mortgage. Thus, high interest rates lead to lower sales in the lower price ranges. Interest rates stand at 7.25% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, and 6.5% for a 15-year. Interest rates hit a low point back in September after the Fed dropped the prime rate by a half percent, but since then, rates have been creeping upwards. The reason is that the economy is strong enough to keep inflation as a concern for the future. I expect mortgage rates in the 7% range will be the new norm for the foreseeable future.

Condo and townhome sales were a bright spot in the market with sales up 24%. There were 68 sales in 2024 compared to 55 in 2023. Land sales were only up 2%. The strongest category for land sales was between one-half and three acres, where sales were up 18%. These size lots are mostly found in Aspen Springs.

Make sure to check out all the stats and charts I’m including here. We now have 20 years of accumulated real estate data!

Some more good news for the market is that December sales were up. We had 48 transactions this December compared to 36 a year ago. Things seem to have picked up after the election. Here in my office, I’ve been very fortunate. I had a great 2024, and 2025 is starting off with a bang. I’ve had three homes and one piece of vacant land go under contract the first week of the year. Another positive item to report is that new home building permits were up for the year, with 131 permits in 2024 versus 99 in 2023.

My prediction for 2025 is for a somewhat stronger market with prices up slightly. I expect we will see more available inventory than last year. The dream of 3% mortgage rates has gone by the wayside, and 7% will be the new normal. Waiting around for lower rates is probably a waste of time, so you might as well get in the game whether you are a buyer or seller. The time is now!

We have just experienced one of the nicest Indian Summers that I can remember. Temperatures have been above average and the Fall colors were gorgeous this year. But winter is starting today. We are expecting rain and snow off and on for the next several days. Wolf Creek Ski Area has been open for two weeks now, and it was once again the first ski area in the nation to open for the season. The mountain is reporting 24” of snow from the latest storm, with 65” so far this year.

Something else that happens this time of year is big game hunting, and the season is about half over. Hopefully the incoming weather changes will move the animals down and give the hunters a greater opportunity for success.

Even though Christmas is well over a month away, I’m excited about a couple new things I’ve gotten in my life over the past couple weeks. The first is a new shoulder! After a successful surgery, I’m on the road to recovery, and I should be fishing again before you know it. The second is a new puppy. I’m happy to introduce our new Golden Retriever. His name is Archie!

A big local issue which has recently come back into focus is the potential reservoir site at Running Iron Ranch. This project was started back in 2008 as a response to the major drought we had in 2002, which is the year the San Juan River nearly ran dry in town. There are two local agencies which have an interest in the property. They are the Pagosa Area Water & Sanitation District (PAWSD) and the San Juan Water Conservancy District (SJWCD). I recently spoke to members of both agencies, so here is the Reader’s Digest version of what I found:

PAWSD would like to sell the property to get out from under the debt incurred from the purchase of the property. PAWSD has been making loan payments on the property since it was purchased. PAWSD feels that they have other options for water storage in the future which would be more cost effective than a new reservoir at Running Iron Ranch.

SJWCD is against the sale of the property. Or perhaps more specifically, they do not want to abandon the reservoir project entirely without further research and consideration of the potential consequences of giving up on building the reservoir. PAWSD feels that enough research and consideration has already been done.

At least one private party has expressed an interest in making an offer on the property, so the issue has come to a head. PAWSD would like to move toward selling the property, starting with an appraisal and a resolution to accept “serious offers” from potential buyers. SJWCD wants PAWSD to retain the property.

Lawyers are beginning to get involved, and it looks like the situation may deteriorate further. I’m hopeful that both sides will begin to communicate more clearly, and that we can come up with a win-win resolution to the problem.

The Pagosa Springs Sun published a lengthy and thorough article on the situation in their October 31 issue. If you are a subscriber, you can read the entire article at PagosaSun.com

Now for the latest real estate news. For the first time in my 20+ years of watching these monthly statistics, the total number of sales year-to-date is exactly the same as it was last year. The number is 592 versus 592. The market is flat!

These numbers are way down from the peak of the market back in 2021 when we had 1,050 total sales at this time of year. The median sale price for homes is up 15% this year, but in general, home prices are in decline across the board. How can this be? The reason that median sale price is up while overall prices are falling is that we are selling a lot more million-dollar homes than we used to. This pushes the median price up even though individual home values are going down.

Make sure you check out the graphs and all the stats below:

Building permits in Archuleta County are up slightly. At the end of October, the County had issued 121 single family residential permits, compared to 92 permits at the same time last year.

Now for interest rates, which have been the main culprit for our declining market over the last couple of years. Mortgage rates right after the pandemic were around 3%. Earlier this year they hit a high over 8%. They are currently a little over 7%, but that’s up a full percent compared to where they were a month ago, even though the Fed dropped their rates by a half percent back in September. Why would mortgage rates rise with the Fed dropping rates? The main reason is the national economy. Data about jobs and consumer spending is showing a stronger economy, so concerns about inflation are popping up again. This leads to higher interest rates.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone, and especially to our our military and first responders!