itrade4real.com - News Feed

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

Mon, 22 Dec 2008 17:41:00 GMT

Early Christmas gift from Dr. Faber: A gift for the masses: The answer key to what lies ahead...

Dr. Faber and Mr. Grant

Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:43:00 GMT

Brief comment on Madoff, from the all-star Dr. Marc Faber (my favorite), as well as video from James Grant...

Jim Rogers on the $USD:

Tues, 16 Dec 2008 14:45:00 GMT

Here's a quick thought from Jim Rogers...

Thursday morning (3 positions, 1 new):

Thurs, 11 Dec 2008 13:02:00 GMT

Good day yesterday, with commodities kicking into gear, and the 3pm-4pm index trade worked as well. I bought some SSO into the after hour sell-off, but don't have any strong bias for the morning...

3 outlooks

Thurs, 11 Dec 2008 12:02:00 GMT

I'll make a few quick observations, but it's always important to attach an expected time frame with any prediction, otherwise it's totally useless. For example, if a trader is day trade only, and very bullish, he probably means for the next half hour...

Tuesday 4pm:

Tues, 9 Dec 2008 20:52:00 GMT

Did not do much today, so nothing great to report, and finally updating the site after exiting most positions before noon on Monday. The path of least resistance remains higher...

Weekend update:

Sat, 6 Dec 2008 18:52:00 GMT

I've been posting more frequently in the "positions" tab, as that is where specific trades are discussed. Check it out here...

Saturday 1 pm:

Sat, 6 Dec 2008 17:59:00 GMT

Here's what I said Thursday night, about Friday's potential: "Shorter hold times continue to be the best way to play, as reversals are common, and fierce. I took advantage of the general market pullback to add to gold via DGP...

Thursday 8:15:

Fri, 5 Dec 2008 1:15:00 GMT

Shorter hold times continue to be the best way to play, as reversals are common, and fierce. I took advantage of the general market pullback to add to gold via DGP...

1.3% off the highs

Thurs, 4 Dec 2008 12:02:00 GMT

I took a short signal in the ZB futures yesterday, and I'm not too surprised to report the trade was a loser, almost right out of the gate! I took a decent size loss...

Tuesday 12 pm update:

Tues, 2 Dec 2008 17:08:00 GMT

Accounts eeked into new all time highs again. This has been an odd run for me, as I usually blast into highs, and then don't get new highs for some length of time. However, lately the results have been just pushing into new highs almost everyday...

Monday update (12:30 pm):

Mon, 1 Dec 2008 17:32:00 GMT

Due to the cash yen position (50%) accounts are just barely in new all time high territory today. Regarding new trades today, about the best that can be said is that I've avoided bottom fishing in stocks, as that would've been costly...

Tuesday afternoon

Tues, 25 Nov 2008 18:45:00 GMT

Several day trades today from the short side in the ES futures have worked, and one that failed, from the long side. All in all, we're up some, but nothing to too exciting...

2 for Tuesday

Tues, 25 Nov 2008 13:01:00 GMT

All time favorite Marc Faber on Bloomberg. It might not be pleasant, but I would not fade the best economist in the world!...

New all time highs on Monday morning:

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 15:55:00 GMT

What can I say, other than Christmas came early. Gold is continuing the run, and more importantly, holds up when stocks pull back. I'll be adding to this trade on dips. BGU was a score...

2 NEW ideas

Sat, 22 Nov 2008 20:03:00 GMT

If you follow my Twitter comments, I mentioned before the open on Friday that gold was perking up as a buy on my screens. Well, it turned out to be a stellar day for gold, but without me on board (at least in trading accounts mentioned here)...

Friday morning:

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 13:33:00 GMT

All things considered, yesterday was not too bad, due to 1/2 cash balance in yen, which more than made up for a loss on BGU day trade, and current position in UYM...

Thursday pre-open

Thurs, 20 Nov 2008 13:12:00 GMT

As the intra-day moving averages turned higher Wednesday morning, I took a long signal in the NQ futures. This trade never really started working, and I was stopped out soon thereafter...

Wednesday before the open:

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 13:38:00 GMT

I was stopped out of my only position last night, so come into this morning flat and ready to trade either side in equities. As mentioned...

Another Jim Rogers interview:

Wed, 19 Nov 2008 12:55:00 GMT

I didn't do anything last night in the Asian markets, but was stopped out of my ZB short trade for a small loss. Rather than having a strong opinion about market direction...

Tuesday 1:40 pm:

Tues, 18 Nov 2008 18:39:00 GMT

Markets required more patience than usual today, as I just took my first trade of the day, shorting ZB futures (Dec 30 yr bond contract). As I type, stocks are right at the lows of the day, and I still have no bias...

Monday after the close:

Tues, 18 Nov 2008 18:37:00 GMT

Back from vacation, and no trades to report today, other than closing out the SSO long etf held over the weekend, for a small loss (.30/share). Besides cash balances in JPY and USD, I remain flat headed into tomorrow...

Reminder:

Thurs, 13 Nov 2008 19:19:00 GMT

The trading is great today, and I cannot share all trades taken, as some are very short hold times. Of course, I'll put what I can on Ticker...

Wednesday's close:

Thurs, 13 Nov 2008 00:20:00 GMT

Forgive the sporadic posts, but I'm still on my "working vacation". Today was kind to me on all fronts. Took four trades, and they all worked...

My favorite:

Tues, 11 Nov 2008 00:21:00 GMT

By now, it should be no secret that my favorite commentator is Marc Faber. My second would be Jim Rogers. You have to admire a trader that can smile and laugh through all the recent turmoil...

No rest for the wicked

Mon, 10 Nov 2008 15:01:00 GMT

I'm still in the West Virginia mountains,but will be able to trade if I have signals. Posts will be sporadic, as I most likely won't get back to the office until...

Friday morning results:

Fri, 07 Nov 2008 16:41:00 GMT

Had a quickie day trade in the ZB (bond) futures (short) for a profit of 9/32 ($281.25/contract). I'm still waiting for signals, but today's "action" is quick subdued...

4 Links I liked:

Fri, 07 Nov 2008 12:45:00 GMT

Our catalyst today is the payroll data at 8:30 am. Not much to say, other than for short term trades I remain flexible to trade either side, and if you're a long term investor (1 year+), save your money!...

Thursday trade update:

Thurs, 06 Nov 2008 19:47:00 GMT

I wish I had more to report, but today has not offered much, other than adding to my Silver position on a late morning selloff. i'm not getting my hopes up for the rest of today...

Thursday thoughts:

Thurs, 06 Nov 2008 12:42:00 GMT

The Bank of England just made a "surprise" move, and lowered rates by 1.5%, a full point more than expected. As the central banks desperately try to reflate, in the face of market forces, I remain flexible to trade either side...

Wednesday afternoon report:

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 19:52:00 GMT

Today was quiet and unpredictable (not much edge, IMO). I managed to be on the right side (short ES futures) after 10 am, but the trade didn't really kick in, so I covered into a down move at a dinky profit...

Now what?

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:40:00 GMT

The answer is nothing, in the short term anyway. Longer term, readers will see me hammer home a few ideas over and over, such as shorting bonds, and commodities long. Still, it's too early to...

Tuesday afternoon update:

Tues, 04 Nov 2008 19:08:00 GMT

Took advantage of the sharp pullback to add to Silver. I'm holding just 1 position currently:

Tuesday morning:

Tues, 04 Nov 2008 16:16:00 GMT

No day trades as yet today, and the drift higher in all asset classes (except bonds) continues. Accounts sit at new all time highs. I'm holding just 1 position currently:

What should investors do?

Tues, 04 Nov 2008 13:11:00 GMT

As I've said many times recently, if I were an "investor" with a retirement account looking long term (several years), I would sell into rallies. In the very short term, we could see more strength in stocks, but that is your window...

Monday 3:58 PM:

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 20:58:00 GMT

I decided not to take stocks short overnight due to the lack of direction. I'll get another trade tomorrow. My position sizes are still 20% more than last week, adjusting for decreased volatility...

Monday 11:24am:

Mon, 03 Nov 2008 16:24:00 GMT

I've had just 1 trade today, shorting the ES futures on the 11 am spike. I intend to hold the position at least all day today. Silver performing well, and I remain long. I don't see too much happening today...

Friday afternoon:

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 18:54:00 GMT

Very quiet day for me, as I'm only long Silver futures currently which I bought late last night with Silver down 5%+. Over the next weeks, it appears it will be a good trade to buy dips in various commodities (agriculture and metals) until stopped out. We had just one day trade today...

Thursday afternoon:

Thurs, 30 Oct 2008 18:53:00 GMT

Only had one trade today, long GLD, which barely saw daylight. The trading is sloppy, and I'm not seeing much confirmation, so I'll probably stand aside until tomorrow...

And more from Marc Faber

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 23:59:00 GMT

Marc Faber's take on the recent action. I remain flexible to trade either side in the short term...

Jim Rogers

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 18:57:00 GMT

Ten minute video of Jim Rogers, sticking to his guns, as usual: Just a side note that seems relevant. I'm planning on moving out of the country for a few years. The reasons are many, but the current and future political climate have hastened my desire to shake things up. As with my trading, I've remained flexible with my goals, and the timing seems right. I will most likely keep the...

Wednesday before the Fed:

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 18:44:00 GMT

I haven't had the time to update the site, but will take this lull as an opportunity to share the numbers. All I can say is that it's been a great month. Even being parked in yen (cash) has paid nicely (until yesterday). My plan of not taking overnights has served very well, and as long as volatility remains heightened, I see no reason to change. I've even had opportunities/signals in the...

Friday Morning:

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 13:44:00 GMT

No positions other than cash (50% yen/50% USD). Accounts at new highs, as yen continues to rip higher. I'll make day trades only, with no positions over the weekend. Trading accounts equity less than 0% from all time highs set on 10/23/08. (includes open positions)...

The Plan

Fri, 24 Oct 2008 12:58:00 GMT

I come in flat today, and ready to trade either side. I do not make directional calls, but instead have a plan for each possibility, always respecting risk. Nobody knows what will occur, and I'd suggest traders turn off TV's, the Blackberry, and their phones. You already know what to do, so you won't need advice. These are unprecedented times for most traders, so I don't want to hear ...

Thursday afternoon report:

Thurs, 23 Oct 2008 17:26:00 GMT

I sound like a broken record, but accounts are in all time high territory again. I've only had 2 trades today, but both were winners, as I shorted the morning spike higher, and then got long the OIH for an acceptable profit (not great). Since then, I'm biding my time, and have been fortunate to not be involved in the huge selloff that started around 11 am. I still urge caution to not chase...

Wednesday morning:

Wed, 22 Oct 2008 14:48:00 GMT

Due to strength in the JPY (yen), accounts sit at all time highs as I type. I'm preparing to take my first trade of the day, so keep an eye on the "TwitterTicker". Also see some potential setups for a several day hold, but no entries yet. Trading accounts equity less than 0% from all time highs set on 10/22/08. (includes open positions)...

Tuesday afternoon P+L update:

Tues, 21 Oct 2008 18:00:00 GMT

Accounts hit all time highs today, mainly due to strength in the Japanese yen. I was able to trade the long side of stock indexes successfully a few times today, but nothing to get all excited about. I'm on the prowl for another entry, but this time from the short side, and preferably in the NQ futures (or the QLD etf). All in all, it's been a real nice run the last month or so, especially...

Marc Faber at it again

Tues, 21 Oct 2008 1:16:00 GMT

Just a quickie to share another Marc Faber video. I'll have more to say about recent trading in tomorrow morning's post...

Monday morning:

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 15:25:00 GMT

Just one trade so far today. Bought POTash on the late morning pullback and was in the trade exactly 21 minutes for an avg profit around $1/share. Although I see many long candidates, the indexes are not confirming, and as such, I expect to be relatively inactive today. I cannot stress enough how important it is to not chase your expected moves. The markets have plenty of movement and will...

Friday lunch time report:

Fri, 17 Oct 2008 16:29:00 GMT

I've been inactive today, taking just one trade in the SSO etf (long) for a hold time of 20-30 minutes, yielding a .43/share gain. I'm aware of all the reasons "we've put in a bottom", and it might turn out to be the case, but nobody will know until weeks in the future. Of course stocks are "oversold", but that has been the case for 3 straight weeks. The point is to ignore prognostications and...

Thursday morning update:

Thrus, 16 Oct 2008 15:43:00 GMT

What can I say, other than the day trading remains excellent, although labor intensive? Several trades on both sides have worked, but I wish I could see volatility temper some, so that I can hold winners longer (especially shorts). The intra-day opportunities, combined with strength again in the yen, have pushed accounts to all time highs today. All in all, it might be better that I'm in/out...

Unintended consequences

Thurs, 16 Oct 2008 12:23:00 GMT

It's surprising that Paulson and company didn't see this coming, or perhaps more disturbing, they chose to do it anyway. My bet is on the latter, as even the foolish housing speculators have figured out how to game the system. The simple fact is that our "leaders" know we are deflating, but want to let the air out as slowly as possible, so we won't notice. If conditions change too quickly

Wednesday's close

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 20:26:00 GMT

Accounts hit new all time highs again today, due to the strength in the JPY (yen). I didn't make a windfall, but was able to get short the ES's at 2:35 pm, and had a nice gain even though I covered at much higher prices than where they closed. I'm content to hit singles when many are being irreparably damaged. I hold no positions overnight, other than my 50% yen, 50% USD cash balances...

Wednesday afternoon:

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 13:25:00 -4GMT

After having technical issues, we're up and running again (we hope). Glad I stepped aside all morning, but eventually I took a long side trade in the NQ futures, just before our computers quit working. I wasn't even able to get into accounts on other computers, and when this happens, I typically close out all positions that are not longer term holds. The trade was mildly profitable, but that...

2.25 trillion reasons it won't work

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 8:28:00 -4GMT

Regular readers know I often distinguish between trading and investing. Although I don't formulate many trade ideas from fundamental analysis, it does imply that I ignore the facts. Whether a trader uses these details in their decision making or not, I find it interesting how history repeats. The point is that everybody should know why things unfold as they do, even if it's of little use...

Tuesday lunch update:

Tues, 14 Oct 2008 12:18:00 -4GMT

The day trading continues to pay off, while letting me sleep at night. At this stage of the day, stocks could go either way, but my hunch is that they will hold up better than most people think. I would not be aggressive long or short, however, as stocks digest the recent volatility. Pick your spots, define your risk (and stick to it), and don't hesitate to exit winners at your projected...

77%

Tues, 14 Oct 2008 9:10:00 -4GMT

Nobody can ignore numbers like these. Longer term, the bear is not anywhere close to finished, but since my trading has been intra-day only as of late, I will try to remain flexible for setups in either direction (for stocks). If I were a typical investor in a 401(k), it would be prudent to sell into rallies and leave it in cash. I'm still looking for a very long term signal in ZB (bond)...

Margin call, gentlemen!

Mon, 13 Oct 2008 17:42:00 -4GMT

I wonder how much more of this we'll see in the future? Some of the numbers are staggering. I expect the intra-day trading to be worthwhile for the rest of this week at least. Perhaps after that I'll be able to take trades for much longer hold times, but I have no intention of getting "invested". I believe that both longs and shorts can make money in the next stage, as both sides will offer...

Monday afternoon:

Mon, 13 Oct 2008 14:00:00 -4GMT

Several day trades in the ES (winners) and one in the NQ (loser). Traded both sides in the ES futures, and the net effect is about even on the day. I came in flat over the weekend, so today has basicaly been a non-event. Sometimes these type days will test a trader the most, as it seems that everybody is happy and making huge money again. :) Simply focus on yourself, your system, and your...

Everything is fixed

Mon, 13 Oct 2008 7:21:00 -4GMT

Here's another guy whose opinions I'm always sure to listen to, Marc Faber, via Bloomberg. Pay special attention to the end of the interview on his outlook for the US balance sheet and how it ends. Over the years, I've observed who is consistently correct, and who's full of hot air (most brokers and politicians). Compare Faber to PM Brown today, who stated something along the lines of "we...

Friday afternoon:

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 13:54:00 -4GMT

Accounts hit new all time highs again today, although not a blowout to the upside. Several decent trades consisting of shorting bond futures, and long gold have worked for marginal gains. This environment is so shaky, that my "long" and "short" candidate list has had the same names on both lists at different times of the day. This rarely happens, and is usually indicative of market conditions...

Must see video from Bloomberg

Mon, 10 Oct 2008 5:55:00 -4GMT

My expected hold times vary greatly from Jim Rogers, however if I were an "investor" with a 2-3 year time frame, I'd make sure to be on the same side as him. He always comes off as cantankerous, but there is no disputing his record. He really is one of the best. Today I'll keep doing exactly what has been working for me. Short hold times, with potential signals in T-bond, ES or NQ, and gold...

Thursday morning:

Thurs, 9 Oct 2008 11:24:00 -4GMT

My apologies to those readers that try to follow my positions closely, but with the volatility and short hold times, it's better I give re-caps until things return to normal. I simply have too much on my plate! Besides, I truly believe nobody makes money (for long) following somebody else, rather this site is just to show readers it can be done by anybody with just about any system. I've...

What has been working

Thurs, 9 Oct 2008 7:59:00 -4GMT

The shorter hold times have served well the last few weeks. I didn't have time to update my position page yesterday, as I was in and out many times throughout the day. The only items traded are the same I've mentioned repeatedly, being ES and NQ futures, ZB (bond futures), and very few individual names such as Potash (POT), which I am still long from yesterday (with a positive "mark"). Note that...

6 months

Wed, 8 Oct 2008 8:08:00 -4GMT

Before I share an observation, I'll remind you that there is a huge difference between trading and investing. Furthermore, most economic analysis is useless for trading purposes. To prove the point, many predicted the global rate cut. If they are "all longed up" in stock, they will pat themselves on the back for being so brave and prescient. This common method of deduction will cause ruin at...

Update

Tues, 7 Oct 2008 13:57:00 -4GMT

Day traded the ES long (worked), and the ZB (T-bond futures) short (stopped out). I'm down on the day, however, as I had shorted more bonds than I got long stocks. Nothing else too interesting to report on my end...

How I'll trade today

Tues, 7 Oct 2008 8:53:00 -4GMT

I'm aware of all the calls for stocks bottoming around current levels...

Monday afternoon position update:

Mon, 6 Oct 2008 16:00:00 -4GMT

Accounts' equity at all time highs.... -Yen up big (my cash is parked here), but I've moved back to 50%yen, 50%$USD -Long POT from $94.13 (entered again late Friday afternoon)....exited $87.91 (loss of $6.22/share) -Long IGD on a pre-open order below market. Filled on open print at $9.50 (this is a day trade only)...exited at $9.50 for a scratch. I'm excited about the potential of the next...

Monday morning report:

Mon, 6 Oct 2008 9:48:00 -4GMT

Accounts' equity at all time highs.... -Yen up big (my cash is parked here), and POT getting hurt. -Long POT from $94.13 (entered again late Friday afternoon)-Long IGD on a pre-open order below market. Filled on open print at $9.50 (this is a day trade only) Trading accounts equity less than 0% from all time highs set on 10/06/08. (includes open positions)...