Jack Myers Media Spending Forecasts

Jack Myers Advertising & Marketing Investment Forecast - 2006-2010

Updated: Jack Myers Advertising and Marketing Investment Forecast

Jack Myers Media Business Report Advertising and Marketing Investment Forecast for 2006-2010

Data

ADVERTISING DEPRESSION: It's Here and It's Sustained. Down 2.4% for 2008; -6.7% for 2009; and -2.3% for 2010

More than $25 billion in advertising revenues will be drained from media companies between January 2008 and December 2010. Total marketing communications budgets will decline a stunning $56 billion during this same period. Where's the bailout?

Myers Advertising and Marketing Investment Forecasts: 2009 Ad Spend Down 4.0%

Total ad spending will down 1.3 percent for calendar year 2008. For 2009, Jack Myers Media Business Report is forecasting declines of 4.0 percent in total ad spending and 2.1 percent declines in overall marketing communications investments. Details below include 2008/2009 advertising and marketing spending forecasts; 2007/2008 updated data; and 2006/2007 data provided for comparison purposes.

Media's Advertising Addiction Leaves Billions on the Table

The equity value and potential revenues being left on the table by media companies is in the billions. It is long overdue for these companies to focus on how they can wean themselves off their addiction to advertising revenues and begin capturing the other 70% to 75% of corporate marketing budgets they rarely touch. Media companies need to convince investors they have the management team in place that can develop and implement a coherent and intelligent vision for the future – a future in which they will be forced to be less dependent on advertising revenues.

Is There a Future for Newspapers?

There is a future for print media. But the future is doubtful for large newspaper companies that are saddled with heavy costs and debt. If newspapers had focused on their business as "news" rather than "papers," they would most likely have invested heavily in digital ventures beginning in the mid-1990s, and established themselves as the primary source for locally relevant content. But they didn't and now, for the most part, they are just one of many competitors with little unique differentiation and a weak business model. Newspaper companies have been unwilling and unable to embrace change.

Advertising's Share of Marketing Budgets Declines 12% in Past Decade

A decade ago, in 1998, media-based advertising represented 35 percent of total marketing communications budgets, totaling $136.7 billion. Direct mail generated $39.7 billion, a 10% share of marketing budgets, while consumer and trade sales promotions, including events and public relations, represented 55% of the total spend -- $215.0 billion.

Online Video, Widget and Social Network Advertising Will Grow 70% in 2009, as Display Stagnates

While online advertising remains one of the few positive growth sectors for 2009, at a projected 13.5 overall growth rate, display advertising growth is relatively flat (+3.5%) and search growth is relatively robust (+18.5%), but video, social programming and widget-based advertising is booming (+70%).

Myers Advertising and Marketing Investment Forecast: Outlook to 2012

Tomorrow I issue my annual Myers Advertising and Marketing Investment Forecast. Focusing on twenty media and six marketing categories, the report includes 2008 full-year spending, 2009 and 2010 forecasts, plus 2006 and 2007 data for perspective. Order your free copy in easy to save PDF format at www.myersreport.com.

2008 Media Economy Not as Bad as It Looks, But No Good News on the Horizon

Next week I will publish my economic forecast for media and marketing, including updated data for 2008 and projections for 2009 and 2010. The picture is not a pretty one. As Congress struggles with its rescue plan, as the Fed tries to stave off a recession that is already crashing down upon us, as consumers wary of political debate and discontent, and as media companies and agencies gather at annual conferences and conventions to publically worry about their future, there is no positive news on the horizon to discuss.