Livingstone

He should save that dollar for the fine— no bribes...

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 01:12:00 -0500

He should save that dollar for the fine— no bribes allowed.

Why 99% of the Analogies Between Business and Poker are Wrong

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:33:30 -0500

The internet and even bookstores are littered with analogies between business and poker. I’m getting sick of seeing them so I’d like to discuss why 99% of these analogies are wrong.

The ultimate goal of a business is to earn a profit. This is true in poker but you need to understand how this happens. In poker, the theory of reciprocity is what allows players to make money. Basically, it states that over time, a player will see every hand in every position. If you make the same decision as your opponent in a given situation, neither player will earn a profit. IMHO, this is a better way to state the Fundamental Theorem of Poker. This type of reciprocity does not exist in business. Over time, market participants will not see the same opportunities in the same situations. Businesses earn profits differently than a play would in poker.

Poker is a struggle for the blinds. Whether it is an ante game or small blind/big blind game, players are competing to win that money. A game without blinds would be boring. There would be no action because each player would wait until they were dealt the best starting hand and move “all in.” Business is similar to poker in the sense that you are committing inputs to earn money. Let’s simplify and discuss the capital input. Competitors are not trying to “win” the money a business spends. Instead they are competing for market share.

The concepts presented above bring us to the most popular poker analogies: bluffing and folding. In business you can’t bluff. If you have bad cards you have to fold. A lot of people will argue that a company with poor cards can restructure and change markets. That’s true and I will talk more about this point later on in this post. But this doesn’t change the fact that you can’t win if you don’t have a hand. A company can only be successful if they are playing the top of their hand range. In poker, a player needs to play a wide range of hands in order to be successful. There are many times where bluffing (especially when you are unsuccessful) can increase your statistical expectancy. Good luck finding an example of this in business.

Although just about every analogy fails, the three most important things a poker player can control holds true in business. In poker, I get to choose which game I play, for how long, and what psychological state I am in for that period. If I choose a game with players who are better than me, I am going to be a long run loser. If a positive expected value game’s player balance changes in a fashion that causes me to become a loser, I can leave that game. I can also control my morale which will affect how well I play. The same is true for business. You get to pick which market you enter and at what time, how long you are in that market, and the morale within the company. All of these factors need to be periodically reevaluated if you want to have a long run positive statistical expectancy.

The way poker players earn a profit and use inputs fundamentally changes the way they operate compared to businesses. It is these two concepts that cause almost every analogy between business and poker to fail.

"My manager saw me drinking backstage and he said “Mitch, don’t use liquor as a..."

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 12:17:07 -0500

“My manager saw me drinking backstage and he said “Mitch, don’t use liquor as a crutch.” I can’t use liquor as a crutch, because a crutch helps me walk. Liquor severely fucks up the way I walk. It ain’t like a crutch, it’s like a step I didn’t see.”

- Mitch Hedberg

Twitter Lists Don't Work For Me

Mon, 02 Nov 2009 11:41:00 -0500

Twitter Lists launched last week and I don’t understand the hype.

Twitter clients such as TweetDeck have allowed users to create their own lists (groups) for quite some time. The only group that I have found useful is the one that separate my close friends from the rest of my stream.

Lists generally don’t aid discovery. That’s because there is no structure to the data. I am on a stock market list but only a small percentage of my tweets are market related. You would merely be following me, the person, not the investor. I mostly contribute noise to that list and if anything, it detracts from the user experience.

The best lists will come from data washing services such as StockTwits (disclosure: I’m a StockTwits employee). A large percentage of content within our lists are title relevant. However, the noise problem still exists. It’s not a perfect system.

"While I’m in the dressing room five minutes before I come out, I’m breaking my gloves..."

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:18:00 -0500

“While I’m in the dressing room five minutes before I come out, I’m breaking my gloves down, I’m pushing the leather to the back of my gloves, so my knuckle could pierce through. When I come out I have supreme confidence. I’m scared to death. I’m afraid. I’m afraid of everything. I’m afraid of losing. I’m afraid of being humiliated. But I’m confident. The closer I get to the ring the more confident I get. The closer, the more confident. The closer the more confident I get. All during training I’ve been afraid of this man. I think this man might be capable of beating me. I’ve dreamed of him beating me. For that I’ve always stayed afraid of him. The closer I get to the ring the more confident I get. Once I’m in the ring I’m a god. No one could beat me. I walk around the ring but I never take my eyes off my opponent. Even if he’s ready and pumping, and cant wait to get his hands on me. I keep my eyes on him. I keep my eyes on him. Then once I see a chink in his armor, boom, one of his eyes may move, and then I know I have him. Then once he comes to the center of the ring he looks at me with his piercing look as if he’s not afraid. But he already made that mistake when he looked down for that one tenth of a second. I know I have him. He’ll fight hard for the first two or three rounds, but I know I broke his spirit. During the fight I’m supremely confident. I’m making him miss and I’m countering. I’m hitting him to the body; I’m punching him real hard. And I’m punching him, and I’m punching him, and I know he’s gonna take my punches. He goes down, he’s out. I’m victorious. Mike Tyson, greatest fighter that ever lived.”

- Mike Tyson

Fascinating. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a world class athlete say, “I’ve dreamed of him beating me.”

"And then we went… of course we got to go through this court bullshit. And then I received what..."

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 14:52:33 -0400

“And then we went… of course we got to go through this court bullshit. And then I received what 10… well no… what was it $20 million? I received some small amount of money from them. Probably, I don’t know if it was $20 million, $30 million. I don’t know what it was. It was a small amount of money. It doesn’t really even matter. It just destroyed everything. It was really just a bad time in life.”

- Mike Tyson on Don King.

I wonder if he is talking about the settlement as a % of total. Either way, I hope I never see the day when I think $10-20m is a small amount of money.

Cereal killer part ii.

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:55:15 -0400

Cereal killer part ii.

"15:21:03 NBCM WORKER: HI 15:21:03 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: Thank you for using Bloomberg HELP! We..."

Thu, 22 Oct 2009 00:01:40 -0400

“

15:21:03 NBCM WORKER: HI
15:21:03 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: Thank you for using Bloomberg HELP! We have received your question, and a live representative will be with you momentarily. Thank you for your patience.
15:21:09 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: hello
15:21:51 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: how can I assist?
15:22:03 NBCM WORKER: any ideas on how we can get this kid out of the hot air balloon over colorado?

15:22:08 NBCM WORKER: b/c i am totally consumed by this
15:22:22 NBCM WORKER: and noone at my work is offering anything sensible
15:23:07 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: I wish I knew of a simple solution
15:23:25 NBCM WORKER: i mean is this helium going to slowly leeak out?
15:23:36 NBCM WORKER: or should we send the seals in with some chutes?
15:24:01 NBCM WORKER: and where are the parents in all this. im sorry to be venting. i just feel like i dont have anyone to talk to
15:24:38 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: please talk to me about it
15:24:49 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: I feel the pain.. I wonder that the kid is thinking up there
15:25:00 NBCM WORKER: this issue is bigger than just kids in hot air balloons
15:25:12 NBCM WORKER: its a lack of parenting in this country, its dispicable
15:26:25 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: Im sure the parents will never leave the kid alone
15:26:47 NBCM WORKER: i mean what did they have this balloon tied down with? 4 lbs test berkely trilene?
15:26:56 NBCM WORKER: like i have on my trout rod?
15:28:58 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: im sure we will find a lot of answers once this situation is resolved
15:29:17 NBCM WORKER: 6 year olds cannot hardly wipe their own bums let alone climb in a homemade hot air balloon and friggin set it free
15:30:12 NBCM WORKER: in other news apparently the dad was on wife swap, so now things are adding up. the dad, as if building a hot air balloon like a boyscout isnt bad enough, is a scum bag
15:31:06 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: karma
15:35:16 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: Patrick, hopefully the kid will be fine and you can get back to work. Is there anything else I can assist you with?
15:35:47 NBCM WORKER: too much to handle in 25 mins before the bell. but i thank you, kindly
15:36:15 NBCM WORKER: HEY WE GOT IT DOWN!!!!!!
15:36:24 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: NICE
15:36:55 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: thats great news, hopefully the markets will close high
15:37:00 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: thank you for using bloomberg help!
15:37:01 NBCM WORKER: exactly
15:37:03 NBCM WORKER: TY
15:37:17 NBCM WORKER: you’d make a great psychiatrist
15:37:46 BLOOMBERG HELP DESK: thank you

Full disclosure — this exchange has been bouncing around the finance world this week, and the worker in question has been touting it on his Bloomberg header. If it’s not real, we don’t want to know.

”

- Why We All Need Bloomberg Help Desk — Daily Intel

I want to go to there. Sneak Peek: Bill’s Bar and Burger,...

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 08:58:03 -0400

I want to go to there.

Sneak Peek: Bill’s Bar and Burger, Meatpacking District, NYC | A Hamburger Today

Got my halloween costume from my sister before she leaves town....

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:59:37 -0400

Got my halloween costume from my sister before she leaves town. Cereal killer

"My sister wanted to be an actress… she never made it, but she does live in a trailer. She got..."

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 14:26:39 -0400

“My sister wanted to be an actress… she never made it, but she does live in a trailer. She got half-way. It’s like she’s an actress, she’s just never called to the set.”

- Mitch Hedberg

Slaughterhouse - Onslaught 2 They are signing with Eminem....

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:38:20 -0400

Slaughterhouse - Onslaught 2

They are signing with Eminem. Looking forward to their new stuff.

Should Americans banish the burger?

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 08:45:35 -0400

Should Americans banish the burger?:

headline FAIL

Lupe Fiasco - Fire

Thu, 08 Oct 2009 11:07:30 -0400

Lupe Fiasco - Fire

Interesting contrast. Conde Nast shuts down four magazines while...

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:02:50 -0400

Interesting contrast. Conde Nast shuts down four magazines while Google ramps up its creative unit.

wow.

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:37:01 -0400

wow.

"I want to hang a map of the world in my house, and then I’m gonna put pins into all the locations..."

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 15:54:32 -0400

“I want to hang a map of the world in my house, and then I’m gonna put pins into all the locations that I’ve traveled to. But first I’m gonna have to travel to the top two corners of the map so it won’t fall down.”

- Mitch Hedberg

“4 Awkward Moments in Facebook “Likes””...

Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:40:22 -0400

“4 Awkward Moments in Facebook “Likes”” by Brian Murphy on CollegeHumor

If Tom Brady Had Another Comic Part 1

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:30:00 -0400

If Tom Brady Had Another Comic

Part 1

If Tom Brady Had Another Comic Part 2

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 17:29:30 -0400

If Tom Brady Had Another Comic

Part 2