The group has issued their report from the conference, and there is some pretty good coverage of the essence of my talk. Here's a key quote:

"The future of higher education is huge." Carroll shared the following observation from Microsoft: "Probably about 50 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product will be taken up by training and knowledge activities within the decade." Carroll then spoke about what is happening with "the knowledge economy." The reality is, he said, that "American workers today, whether in a trade or profession, are in a situation in which the knowledge they have is continuously going out of date and needs to be continuously replenished. What is there to be concerned about when we have such massive growth potential?"

In a nutshell, my perspective on the future of education (as found within the report) is that we need to rethink the context of "how we teach" in light of the realities that:

• knowledge is growing exponentially'
• the foundation of knowledge generation has forever changed
• the velocity of knowledge is accelerating
• exponential growth of knowledge leads to massive career specialization we are in the midst of a fundamental structural organizational and career change
• By 2020 or sooner, it will be all about "just-in-time knowledge."

• rapid knowledge obsolescence
• rapid knowledge emergence
• disappearance of existing careers
• rapid emergence of new careers
• an ongoing need for continuous knowledge replenishment
• the migration of knowledge generation further away from academia
• a massively increased challenge from overseas knowledge generation
• the fast emergence of new micro-careers
• an economy that succeeds through knowledge deployment
• a fundamental transformation in the role of educational institutions

More information:

• Read Jim's comments at the from 2009 College Board Colloquium by Jim Carroll
• Read the entire reportNew Visions, New Voices for the 21st Century from 2009 College Board Colloquium by Jim Carroll

Bill Gates once observed that "most people overestimate the amount of change that will occur in two years and underestimate the change that will occur over ten years."

Certainly that's true today. All around us, there's a tremendous amount of creative thinking occurring as people work to solve some of the biggest challenges of our times. Ten years from now, we'll sit back in awe at some of the fascinating ideas that came to fruition.

Much of this transformation is coming about as we enter the next phase in our often unique relationship with technology --what we might call pervasive connectivity. Quite simply, everything around us is starting to "plug in" --and there are tremendous opportunities for change as this happens. To ensure that we capture these opportunities, business and government must ensure that they've got a good, solid technology infrastructure that can carry them into this odd new world.

Consider the issue of energy and the environment, and the revolution that is now underway in terms of intelligent building infrastructure. In the not too distant future, most residential and commercial properties will have an HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) infrastructure that has 'gone smart.' Right now, major industrial players are adding intelligence to the next generation of HVAC systems. We're seeing remote monitoring and management through Internet-linked thermostats; better analysis and insight into energy usage through remote management of energy production assets ; rapid response to out-of-norm operations. In the not too distant future --maybe by the time you read this article --you'll use a mobile application that will utilize its GPS connection to determine when you are getting close to home --and it will turn your furnace on.

Technologies such as these allow people to more actively control overall energy usage, and reduce the environmental impact of that use. There are broad benefits to society from encouraging the more rapid adoption of such technologies.

Then there's the revolution in thinking that is occurring in the world of long-term seniors care. Clearly, the future challenges we face are pretty stark: a massive ramp-up in demand with a shortfall in available and planned units; a funding crisis brought about by plunging investment / housing values, and a bigger tax deficit as a result of the economic challenges of today; not to forget ongoing skills and staffing issues as they very same baby boomers exit the economy in staggering numbers.

So what's going to happen? We're starting to see some big, transformative thinking that involves a lot more community and family care. With this, we'll witness the emergence of the concept of the "virtual retirement home." By 2020, most seniors will live in their own homes, and their health conditions will be actively monitored by medical professionals through a network of intelligent bio-connectivity and other devices. We won't have a lot of senior citizen homes -- we'll have virtual seniors networks.

Research is already well underway into the concept; at the University of Missouri, they're actively working with technology that allows for the use of sensors and other technologies to monitor seniors living at home. Behavioral changes involving sleeping patterns, a reduction in physical activity or other changes can trigger contact; and remote medical devices will allow for routine blood pressure and other medical test.

Then there's the transformation that is occurring throughout many industries as they learn to rethink the basic business models by which they operate. Think of efforts towards 'Car 2.0′, which involves a fundamental reinvention of current transportation mindsets. There is a strong belief that we will see a reinvention of the auto industry as the restructuring occurs; particularly as Silicon Valley begins to laser-aim its focus at the next generation of business model. Contrast the thinking of Ford versus Honda. The former retools their plant annually, building several hundred thousand models of a particular vehicle, hoping it will sell. The latter can change things up on a dime, shifting production to meet changing consumer demand in as little as ten days. It's that type of fundamental transformation that will help to encourage the economic recovery, because business organizations will be operating with far more agility and flexibility.

There are thousands of similar, low-key trends that put together, will have a huge impact on our future.

And here's a key point: all of these trends involve connectivity and technology; intelligent infrastructure and the intelligent deployment of computing horsepower. We are already in the midst of the next phase of our march to the world of pervasive connectivity. Society is only to become more reliant upon sophisticated, reliable computer infrastructure. We won't be able to get by with some of the creaky, tired, slow-to-scale systems that many of us have in place.

Here's the conundrum: one impact of the slowing economy is that leaders have stopped "thinking big" when it comes to the transformative opportunities for innovation through technology. And yet, it is clear that the world of transformative thinking and the solution to our big problems is increasingly occurring at the pace of Silicon Valley.

That means, to keep up with innovation, you have to keep up with that pace of change. ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/Kemyzz7xdIM/reinventing-the-future-with-tr.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/reinventing-the-future-with-tr.html Trends Tue, 17 Nov 2009 06:38:35 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/reinventing-the-future-with-tr.html The CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce recently caught the essence of the state of our "new normal", when he observed that we're in the midst of "this move from a really bad economy, to the next economy."

What is the shape of that next economy? While we can't be certain as to the specifics, we do know that it is going to involve a lot more high velocity business change. If that's the case, then the ability of an organization to respond to rapid, relentless, continuous change that will increasingly define its future success.

And so as we climb our way out of a global recession, it's perhaps a good time for business organizations to ask themselves if they're well positioned for what comes next - whatever that might be!

Are they? I'm not so sure. In the last decade, as a futurist and innovation consultant speaking at countless numbers of global conferences, I've had the remarkable opportunity to spend time with the senior leadership of some of the worlds most innovative, world-class organizations, ranging from Rockwell Collins and General Dynamics, to the Walt Disney Corporation, Lincoln Financial and Ingersoll Rand, among others.

In doing so, I've witnessed first hand what innovation leaders are doing to ensure that they can survive and thrive in a period of n rapid economic change.

What are they focused on?

• Mastering fast markets: they're immersed in a world in which product innovations occur so fast that that "time to market" is now measured in weeks rather than years.
• Product innovation: They're busy ensuring that they have a continual pipeline of new products or services that will generate new revenue as old revenue is displaced.
• Dealing with disruptive technology: They're dealing with the fact that a furious pace of technological innovation continues unabated, with the rapid emergence of new technologies that change entire industries: what happens, for example, when our cell phones and smart phones become the credit card infrastructure of the future?
• Customer engagement: They are involved in rapidly changing the method by which they engage with their customer base and re-energizing their brand, knowing that consumer mindset has become increasingly difficult to capture as the relentless march of social networking technologies continues unabated.
• Business model innovation: They are busy innovating with business models, knowing that the only certainty for future success is uncertainty. Consider Wizzit, a South African bank that is based entirely upon the exchange of text messages. That business model disruption right there!

It's not just these areas that they are focused upon. They also know that their ability to compete on the global stage requires that they operate with a startling degree of efficiency. They ensure that they have a cost structure that permits them to operate in a world of razor tight margins. They know that their success increasingly comes from the existence of an intelligent, up to date network and technology infrastructure that provides the foundation for their innovation engine.

That's the new world of business, and we'd do well to pay attention to it. The reality for many organizations going forward is that they must learn to act and operate at the same high degree of razor-sharp clarity of action as any other global competitors. That means squeezing out every drop of potential efficiency as operating margins become thinner. Managing with continued ongoing cost input volatility, particularly as a result of the wild gyrations in global currency markets. Learning to collaborate and generate innovative insight at blinding speed.

In a nutshell, many companies must operate more efficiently, and learn to contend like global competitors. They need to learn to scale, act fast, innovate fast, and compete fast.

To do that, they've got to make sure that they've got the necessary foundation in place that allows us to do what the global competition does.

]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/VaO7I5fRwsg/the-importance-of-innovation-i.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/the-importance-of-innovation-i.html About the recession Global economy Innovation Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:57:19 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/the-importance-of-innovation-i.html Way back in 1987, I was immersed in many of the early networking technologies which would one day form the Internet. I was convinced that we were at the edge of a transformative time, and that the emerging global network would have a profound impact on our world -- politics, the structure of organizations and jobs.

I remember being stunned when I read an editorial in the New York Times that October, which forever shaped my view of the future.

The article essentially predicted a future in which organizations would become smaller, grow and contract as needs arise, and become something fundamentally different.

That one article forever shaped my view of the future, and has formed the basis of much of what I focus upon today in terms of the transformative trends that surround us.

Fast forward to today's economy. With this recovery, as with all others before, organizations are increasingly reluctant to hire staff as they continue to shed even more staff. Organizations are going to go forward with a smaller employee footprint. They're expanding and contracting as necessary. It's all about contract work, part time relationships, and external partnerships.

This is not a new trend; indeed, back in the mid-90's, I wrote a variety of articles and chapters in various of my books that touched on this theme in a variety of ways. I've put online a chapter from my 1997 book, Surviving the Information Age, which took a look at this trend. Read it now, and it was stunningly accurate. (The link is below).

For now, this editorial from 1987 makes for a great read.

"Tomorrow's Company Won't Have Walls", New York Times, October 1987

The hub of the network organization will be small, centralized and local. At the same time, it will be connected to an extended network that is big, decentralized and global. People from the network and from outside the company will join the group at the hub for periods of time and then leave it.

But the network organization will also present its own set of paradoxes. For instance, how will these new organizations be able to manage the often conflicting interests of the centralized hub and the decentralized network? And how can a system that is both centralized and decentralized be unified and coordinated and quick to respond to changes in the market place?

For the global organization of the future, the ability to acquire new products, services, technologies and capital will not be the problem. The marketplace is crowded with each of these as never before.

But for exactly this reason, the challenge for each company will be to nurture its own unique culture and develop the quality of its human resources. That is because competitive advantage will rest increasingly in the way each network organization gathers and assesses information, makes its decisions and then carries out those decisions.

The 21st-century will be full of organizational surprises. The challenge of arranging cooperative efforts between companies to achieve strategic gains is beginning to emerge. Changes in the marketplace have given companies from around the world the opportunity to develop these new linkages. Advances in telecommunications technology also enable companies to bring people together for competitive advantage. The time has now come to form new global collections of companies, and to fully utilize human relationships.

Today? We're in the midst of the jobless recovery - exactly what was predicted. Companies aren't hiring back staff but they will be hiring back lots of people through contracts and partnerships!

More information:

• Read Careers End from Surviving the Information Age by Jim Carroll

That might seem an interesting question, but I've come to the conclusion, after dealing with hundreds of industries and thousands of executives and professionals, that there are quite a few people out there who love the sentiment once professed by Ogden Nash: "progress is great but it's gone on way too long."

I've learned that there are two types of business executives: those who think about the future quite a bit and who are very forward-oriented in their thinking. They are very innovative, realistic, creative, and open to new ways of thinking, because they are actively preparing for rapid change in terms of skills, markets and industry fundamentals.

Then there are others who are stuck in the status quo.

Once you get into the idea that everything around you is changing at a furious pace, and you had better adapt to it, you might consider doing something about it. This might include 'change-quotient' inventory of your organization. If your people are hopelessly mired in the issues of "today" and aren't thinking how their market and industry will be changing tomorrow, then you've got a pretty big problem.

How do you determine the change-quotient? Focus on these issues:

• velocity ratio : what is the rate of change within your industry? What's the velocity of business model change? How many new competitors are there, and how quickly is the industry blurring as they come into play? What's the staff turnover rate? How quickly do new products come to market?
• the rate of 'rising tides': how quickly are customer expectations changing? If you're in an industry in which there are rapidly rising tides in terms of minimum service delivery, you've got an industry in which there are countless opportunities for innovative, future oriented products and processes.
• innovation index: is the industry widely innovative, or are there only a few scattered folks who dare buck the current reality? Is everyone in the industry generally stuck in the past, or is there a widespread focus on the future, with a lot of innovative activity as a result?
• retirement rate: Not to be crude, but how many boomers are there hanging around who want the benefits, want the salary, and want the executive responsibility, but don't want to have to do anything to confront change? This, more than anything, can be one of the key measures for change-capability.
• generational tolerance:: Out on the speaking circuit, I've been meeting thousands of Gen-X and Gen-Connecters in a lot of industries who scream in silent frustration each and every day. They're stuck in organizations with management who actively work to kill new ideas. They're full of innovation, but they have no outlet for it. On the other hand, there are other industries where the frustration doesn't boil away, but instead, is tapped for opportunity. Spot those industries -- where "young people" are welcomed as a source for ideas -- and you've got an industry with massive agility and a high change-quotient
• wisdom wealth: Boomers need not be change-barriers; indeed, there are some who understand where change is occurring, and who are using their years of experience - often with devastating effect - to spot and capitalize on opportunity. These are some of the most powerful organizations on the planet. They've merged the generations, and are change-masters.

]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/i8Xdn-Id_CA/video-five-big-trends.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/video-five-big-trends.html Trends Video Thu, 05 Nov 2009 09:24:13 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/video-five-big-trends.html

There's more on this line of thinking in the Innovation category of this blog. Enjoy!]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/PocBPBOrB9U/video-what-do-innovative-organ.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/video-what-do-innovative-organ.html How to be innovative Video Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:03:52 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/video-what-do-innovative-organ.html

Which camp are you in? ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/typwz7NO2Bw/the-future-opportunity-or-thre.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/the-future-opportunity-or-thre.html Change Faster Video Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:06:24 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/11/the-future-opportunity-or-thre.html ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/bDdfhsf08WU/video-clip-choosing-optimism-a.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/10/video-clip-choosing-optimism-a.html About the recession Video Thu, 29 Oct 2009 09:27:32 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/10/video-clip-choosing-optimism-a.html Over the next several weeks, I will be speaking at a series of events sponsored by Microsoft related to their Windows 7 launch. The audience includes key executives (CIO's, CFO's, CTO's and IT managers) from a wide variety of industries.

While much of the news coverage of Microsoft focuses around the "consumer" side of the Windows 7 launch, of equal significance is the release of several new server infrastructure upgrades that permit large and small business to take their business into the next level of operational innovation.

In Toronto the other day, Steve Ballmer was speaking to this aspect of innovation. I find that some media give the message short shift, because their planned story spin doesn't fit his message.

That's too bad, because the reality is that having an infrastructure that provides for a lot of business flexibility is going to be critical as we transition into the "next economy." Clearly, there's a lot of business turmoil out there, and organizations need to be able to change quickly to deal with new circumstances.

Given that, part of my my message at these events will focus on what I've come to call the "new rules for the next economy." What are those rules?

• structure for growth: in many industries, the painful process of contraction is either over, or coming to an end. Once you've done the cost cutting, you only grow the profit line through new revenue. New revenue means new products and services; that comes from insight, collaboration, and thinking. Smart companies are ensuring they have a razor-sharp growth oriented culture, and technology enablers that help them get there.
• focus on "chameleon revenue": in many industries, the revenue stream five years from now won't come from the products or services offered today. You have to keep a product/service innovation pipeline full in order to generate these new revenue sources -- and do it faster and better than before. Crayola has two supply chains: one for existing revenue, and one for innovation-based revenue. Interesting concept!
• speed up: I spoke at a global travel conference a few weeks ago, and noted that 1/3 of all leisure travel is now last-minute; the average time frame for planning now down to just 15 days; 36% of last minute vacations are 3-4 nights; and 30% are 1-2 nights. Smart travel companies have in place an infrastructure that allows them to rapidly change their product lineup, marketing message, brand image, and the flexibility to communicate a new message to a massive client base quickly.
• ingest new technology faster. There's going to be a huge amount of business model change as the tsunami of technology continues unabated. Anyone in retail will be hammered by the rapid transition to cellphone based payment technology. Winners will be able to transition at the speed of Silicon Valley -- with the result that leaders are those who will continue to find operational innovation in ways they hadn’t thought of before
• shake up methodology: think Manufacturing 2.0, and a blog post I wrote here some time ago. The future is all about Honda's thinking: "how quickly can I change" is the defining question in terms of market flexibility. Manufacturing models are undergoing a huge shakeup, and those who transition them for maximum agility and flexibility will dominate the next marketplace.
• be offensively defensive: no matter what industry you are in, there is someone out there who wants to mess up your business model. Before that happens, you should mess it up yourself, so that you better control the end game. Technology has and will play a huge role in business model transformation, and your infrastructure has to be up to the task.

Will you be able to ahead with a creaky, finger-in-the-dyke infrastructure? ]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/ljPwckzTOuI/the-new-rules-for-the-next-eco.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/10/the-new-rules-for-the-next-eco.html Industry - Hi-tech Keynotes Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:55:43 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/10/the-new-rules-for-the-next-eco.html When you want off stage, you always wonder how you did!

Last week, I was the opening keynote speaker for an audience of up to 4,000 parks and recreation professionals, at the National Recreation and Parks Association annual conference in Salt Lake City.

Expectations were running high; many tweets were going out under the #nrpacongress tag, indicating enthusiasm for my upcoming talk.

I came off stage feeling like I did a real barnburner of a motivational talk, encouraging the crowd to adapt to the high rate of change that surrounds them.

It must have hit home with some: I received this wonderful email today.

Dear Jim,

I just wanted to let you know that in my 20 years of attending the NRPA Congress, no one has captivated me more than your keynote address. And, all during the week, when we talked about the Keynote, everyone agreed!

In fact, I presented a seminar "Creating the Wow---New Marketing Trends for Everyone", and mentioned a few of your insightful comments. It was amazing to see how everyone was captivated with your session. In fact, it is the only time I can remember, that people were upset that we were running late and you had to wrap up your talk rather quickly.

In addition, Vendors raved about you pressing attendees to visit the trade show, talk to peers, and see how technology is changing our profession. It was quite a Home Run!

We have a saying in our department, the 2008 NRPA Gold Medal Winner (Class II---100,001 to 250,000), which is, "Engage. Inspire. Change a Life Today!" I wanted to leave you with this... YOU Engaged. YOU Inspired. YOU changed lives that day! Thanks again for sharing your keen insight and talents with all of us!

Respectfully,

Rick Herold

Director of Parks and Recreation

City of Grand Prairie, Texas

www.GrandFunGP.com

"We help 13,284 people and organisations anticipate, and respond to, how we will live". Find opportunities for growth, discover new solutions, conduct risk and intelligence assessments, make strategic choices, plan and act on decisions, construct scenarios and join our global innovation and foresight network.

I was asked to write an article for the launch of the site, and it is featured on the home page for Shaping Tomorrow Future Voices.

In "Our Brightest Minds -- and the Strategic Value of Thought Leadership Speakers", I make several observations that outline the role I play an increasing number of organizations today:

Steering an organization into the future is often akin to navigating a ship. You can only get so much momentum, and when it necessary to take a change in direction, it takes a lot of time for the turn to take effect.

That's where the role of a high profile futurist with a track record comes in. We help you to steer the ship.

I spend my time with a large number of global Fortune 1000 organizations, associations and government bodies. I'm often called in by a CEO or other member of senior management to achieve one particular goal: to help to place emphasis on the issues, challenges and opportunities that the organization faces in the future. In many cases, senior management knows what needs to be done; but being aware of the art of leadership, they also know that they must carefully lead their team through what are often, significant mindset changes.

The leadership team -- including you -- knows that they need to wake their people up, shake them out of their complacency, and give them a clear understanding that they had better start thinking about the future -- and fast -- in order to keep up with high velocity change. And perhaps, if they are lucky, stay one step ahead of everyone else.

That's what we do. We've chosen a career path that has us assisting organizations in making the transition into the future. I've been doing this for well over fifteen years.

You can read the full article online.

More information:

• Read Our Brightest Minds -- and the Strategic Value of Thought Leadership Speakers

GovPro News recently ran a press release on my keynote, commenting:

The recession has created an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty for many, and those who work in the parks and recreation field are not immune. With so many forces - the economy, politics, and social and leisure trends, for example - out of the control of parks and recreation professionals, thinking about the future could cause a few sleepless nights.

Futurist Jim Carroll has helped hundreds of organizations minimize their sleepless nights when preparing for the future, and he will discuss some of the upcoming challenges and opportunities in the field of parks and recreation when he delivers the keynote address at the National Recreation and Parks Association’s (NRPA) annual Congress and Exposition in Salt Lake City.

So what will I be talking about? The NRPA ran an interview with me in their September issue which is worth a read; I discuss some of the challenges and trends that we face in terms of the future of parks and recreation, and the innovative mindsets that will help folks cope with a future which is faster, more complex, and certainly full of opportunity.

As NRPA Chief Executive Officer Barbara Tulipane commented in the GovPro release: "In these difficult economic times, it will be refreshing and instructive to learn from one of the truly great minds in strategic planning.... Attendees will leave the conference well-armed with a variety of tools and strategies to help them successfully confront the challenges of the coming year."

More information:

• Read NRPA article: What the Future Holds
• visit 2009 NRPA Congress and Exposition Web site
• Read 2009 NRPA conference casts an eye to the future

From a high level, the trend unfolding is that we will be able to more directly and individually control how we use energy resources, giving each of us ways to reduce our own environmental footprint.

We're seeing small steps already today: for example, I just bought the new IP Thermostat app for my iPhone; it provides instant access to the two Internet-enabled Proliphix thermostats in my home and ski chalet/cottage. (I could link to my thermostats before via a web page, but IP Thermostat makes it seamless and fast.) The technology allows me to actively manage my energy consumption and better manage my environmental footprint. A world in which hundreds of millions of people are doing the same thing would put a serious dent into heating and air-conditioning usage.

Such devices are just a small example of a number of major trends that will lead to more of this type of connectivity becoming mainstream. For example, major industrial players are adding intelligence to the next generation of commercial, industrial and residential heating, ventilation and air-conditioning equipment, to allow for remote monitoring, management and rapid response to out-of-norm operations.

The advent of the "smart grid" - an electrical system that operates on a more efficient, cost-effective basis through the use of information technology - is another example. It's not all hype; Cisco recently suggested that the connectivity component of energy infrastructure will be worth more than US$100 billion over five years. That’s some serious spending.

And if we consider the new role of analytics, in that such connectivity will allow consumers and users to better understand their usage, and allow more intelligent demand.

The Positive Energy initiative, for example, encourages hydro utilities to send out electrical bills that compare your usage to that of your neighbours. If you're efficient, you get some smiley faces on your bill. If not, you get some images that would encourage you to do better. It’s a unique, simple idea, and yet it provides a glimpse into where we can go in the future if we allow people to take a more analytical, deeper view of how they use energy, and hence, impact the environment.

Imagine that as we build this intelligent, connected energy system we can provide tools allowing consumers to further manage their household energy use. For example, software tools could allow them to query an energy provider for details on how well their fridge was operating compared to neighbourhood norms, how much they could save by purchasing a more efficient microwave, or how much money they are losing by postponing that oil change on their 10-year-old hyper-connected car.

We know that everything around us is beginning to plug into the cloud.

There might be unique opportunities to consider how we can maximize the potential for insight as this occurs.]]> http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/jimcarroll/pHvi/~3/LZ5wCIVB_rU/article-the-future-of-energy.html http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/10/article-the-future-of-energy.html Articles Trends Thu, 01 Oct 2009 06:38:08 -0500 http://www.jimcarroll.com/blog/2009/10/article-the-future-of-energy.html Next week, I'll be in Jacksonville, as the lunch time keynote speaker for the annual meeting of the Materials Handling Association of America. We'll have about 300 executives in the room, from a broad cross section of North American industry.

My topic? "Moving Beyond the Meltdown: Aligning Yourself for Growth Through Innovation".

In the last twelve months, I've had a unique first hand opportunity to witness what's happening on the ground throughout corporate North America as companies have grappled with the recession. Throughout this time, I've been fortunate enough to speak at a wide variety of leadership meetings, management get-togethers and other corporate events for a fascinating list of Fortune 500 organizations, as well as many prestigious national associations.

And in my own small way, I've been busy helping people to understand what they need to do to innovate their way into the "next economy." That's because there are an increasing number of CEO's or other members of senior management who are bringing me in order to help place emphasis on their message of the urgency of change.

What's clear is that we are in the midst of a pretty significant economic transformation. As Mick Fleming at the American Chamber of Commerce put it recently: "It's going to be this move from a bad economy, to the next economy."

What is the shape of that next economy? The scope of the change can be seen in the types of deep, transformational change that is underway in many an industry. Consider manufacturing - clearly, we're moving from a world of mass production, to mass customization and agility-based manufacturing. I often use the example of Honda, as noted in a Bloomberg news article back in 2008:

"Honda's assembly lines can switch models in as little as 10 days ..... by contrast, it could take months for most rivals to make the same change."

There's a similar fundamental transformation underway in many other industries -- and to understand the link between future trends and innovation, you must get into that mindset. Take health care -- 20 years from now, it will look nothing like it does today, as we move to a world of preventative medicine.

And what's really happening with the global economy are a number of trends that point to growth:

• There are a tremendous number of new companies and new industries being built around the high velocity of ideas that surround us - which is increasing the pace of business startups;
• New ideas continue to be explored, markets grow, and industries emerge as rapid innovation occurs in health care, agriculture and countless other fields. It's all about rapid science today -- and exponential knowledge growth leading to faster discovery of the "next thing"
• Business model innovation continues unabated : I'm seeing revolutionary trends with mobile text message based banking systems, for example
• Small organizations continue to have the advantage of capitalizing on opportunity quicker; today, it's all about speed, and these are the innovators who often win in big markets. Just look at what's going on in pharmaceutical research, where the majority of new discoveries are happening in small labs

What's my role? In each and every case, the individuals who have engaged me know that their industry and the world they live in is set for deep, systemic, transformational change. They have a compelling sense of urgency. They know that maybe the rest of their team does not share the sentiment; they're suffering from organizational sclerosis; their ability to understand the future is clogged up by todays' short term focus.

Leaders today know that they need to wake their people up, shake them out of their complacency, and give them a clear understanding that they had better start thinking about the future -- and fast -- in order to keep up with high velocity change.

And perhaps, if they are lucky, stay one step ahead of everyone else.

More information:

• Material Handling Association of America - 2009 annual conference
• Blog post: Are you watching the major transformations, or just the piddly stuff?