Strait of Hormuz

Usually the prelude to a war is the drumming up of national spirit by those in charge. This happened before the Iraq war, and even (by the bad guys) in the run-up to World War II.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has recently given out a lot of information that is usually considered to be classified. Panetta has said that there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June. He has said that Iran will have the materials to build a nuclear bomb in one year, and the means to deliver that bomb two years after that.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak may have signaled the prospect of an Israeli attack soon when he asked last month to postpone a planned U.S.-Israel military exercise in May. Barak apologized that Israel couldn’t devote the resources to the annual exercise this spring-they may be needed elsewhere

President Obama and Panetta, playing good cops, have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack, believing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the threshold.

A war could benefit Obama as voters are reluctant to change Presidents during a war.

Meanwhile, the Obama administration is conducting intense discussions about what effects an attack on Iran.

Would Iran target U.S. ships in the region or try to close the Strait of Hormuz? Would Iran launch a conventional missile attack on Israel? Finally, what effect would the war with Iran which would case a huge spike in oil prices have on the fragile global economy.

It is more than likely that Iran would strike back, and, if they do, here is what will happen:

First off, there would not only be a “huge spike” in oil prices—much more importantly there would be huge reduction on the amount of oil available to industrial nations.

For starters, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, This was confirmed by Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman General Martin Dempsey said recently on Face the Nation, “They’ve invested in capabilities that could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz.” That would have only a short-term effect as General Dempsey also said, the U.S. “would take action and reopen” the waterway.

The greater danger comes from the fact that it would be very easy for Iran to destroy Saudi Arabia’s oil fields. This would create an oil shortage would last for years. Iran does not yet have a nuclear bomb, but they enough conventional missiles to destroy the oilfields of Saudi Arabia. Iran also has enough radioactive material with which they could contaminate the Saudi oil fields—for years to come.

The Gulf countries (Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) produce nearly 30% of the world’s oil, while holding 57% of the world’s crude oil reserves. Besides oil, the Persian Gulf region also has 45% of the world’s total proven gas reserves.

A major portion of the oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz goes eastwards to Asia (especially Japan, China, and India).

A lack of oil would cause a severe world wide depression and social dislocation (today’s polite term for riots and revolution).

Perhaps Hollywood director James Cameron’s decision to leave America and move his entire family to a farm in New Zealand is more than providing his kids with a “strong work ethic.”  There are others of the elite 1% of Americans who are doing the same.

There is an old Italian saying, “non tutti mali vengono per nuocere”—not all bad things come to hurt you.

Maybe some good will come of a war with Iran.

Lack of oil would be especially hard on China which lacks any reserves of its own. China would suffer the most, and most of its manufacturing capability would be gone. Factories would shut down in China and throughout Asia.

This could be good as it would cause manufacturing and jobs to return to the United States.

Maybe we are not just declaring war on Iran…

Maybe we are declaring a more important war—a war on China.

Australian prime minister Julia Gillard rushed from angry mob

Riots in the U.S.

Billionaire George Soros predicts protests by Occupy Wall Street will turn violent, while warning the U.S. financial system may collapse.

According to Newsweek, Soros said riots on the streets of American are inevitable and that the Occupy Wall Street movement “is an inchoate, leaderless manifestation of protest,” in other words—chaos.

“At times like these, survival is the most important thing,” Soros said.

In Davos, Professor Nouriel Roubini, “Dr. Doom” says the fallout from that crisis could last the rest of this decade leading to “social unrest.”

Majority of Republicans and Demcrats say, “Throw out all U.S. Congressmen”

The Wall Street Journal poll shows Americans agree on one thing: they don’t like Congress, and they would vote to replace every single member—even their own, if they had the option. They do, but won’t match their poll results with deeds.

Fifty-six percent of registered voters say they would vote out every member of Congress if there were a place on the ballot to do so—with 55% of liberals, 55% of moderates, and 58% of conservatives all feeling the same way.

Federal Reserve says U.S. recovery years away

The U. S. Federal Reserve has stated that a full recovery is years away. For this reason, the Fed it was not likely to raise interest rates until the end of 2014, adding 18 months to the expected duration of its response to the slump.

Too late for Israel to attack Iran?

Israel’s fears that it might soon be too late to launch military action were bolstered earlier this month when Iran announced that it had begun to enrich uranium at its Fordow plant, which is buried so deep within a mountain it may be impossible for Israeli warplanes or missiles to destroy.

Libya a failed state (thanks to Hillary)

Hillary Clinton’s head of Libya, devout Islamic professor Mustafa Abdel Jalil, was trapped inside for a government building in Benghazi for hours by an angry mob.  Abdel Jalil attempted to placate the mob, but retreated into the building after water bottles were thrown at him.

Doctors Without Borders has suspended its work in prisons in the Libyan city of Misrata because it said torture was so rampant that some detainees were brought for care only to make them fit for further interrogation. Over 8 thousand prisoners are held in Libya’s secret detention camps.

Meanwhile, Gaddafi loyalists have re-taken the strategic town of Bani Walid.

Iraq a failed state (thanks to Bush)

The Sunni/Shiite rift is leading to daily bombings and deaths on both sides. A civil war is on its way.

Syria headed for civil war

The United Nations is considering resolutions against Syria. Soon it may be bombs (and drones) away over Damascus.

U.S. floating base in the Middle East (shades of Kevin Costner’s Water World)

The Pentagon is rushing to send a large floating base for commando teams to the Middle East as tensions rise with Iran, al-Qaeda in Yemen and Somali pirates, among other threats.

U.S. war games show that Iran has the capability to do major damage and to sink a large part of the U.S. naval fleet in the Persian Gulf.

World Economy slows

Overall, the world economy is expected to expand 3.25% in 2012 — down from the 4% projected by the IMF in the fall. That figure includes 8.2% growth in China and 7% in India. U.S. Growth is forecast at 1.8%, minus 3% inflation = -1.2%–U.S. the recession continues.

Price of oil goes up

Saudi Arabia’s monthly crude oil production jumped 7.3% in November topping 10.04 million barrels per day, a 30-year high mark, and at record prices thanks to threats from Iran.

But there is a bright spot!

Nowhere is the new mood more evident than in Brazil, which recently passed Britain as the world’s sixth-largest economy. Brazil’s unemployment rate is at a historic low of 4.7%. Veja, a leading newsmagazine, celebrated in a cover story this month the creation of new millionaires at a rate of 19 a day. By some measures, São Paulo’s financial sector is the envy of Wall Street: The market value of one bank, Itaú, now exceeds those of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley combined.

This IBM System z10 mainframe replaces a room full of PC-style servers

The use of “Cloud computing,” as it is termed, may become secure through quantum entanglements, something Einstein called “spooky action at a distance.”

No need to go into the science of quantum entanglements and how they make your data secure-the important point is the resurgence of cloud computing.

Resurgence? Isn’t cloud computing a new thing—the newest latest thing? No, it is just a new name for an old thing.

Back in those early days of computers, when IBM mainframes ruled, people accessed mainframe computers through “dumb” terminals. The terminal was “dumb” because it had no computing power of its own other than to display information from the mainframe and allow the user to input new information to update the files in the mainframe.

When I ran Citibank’s datacenter in Singapore, we were able to service 100 dumb terminals in Saudi Arabia with a slow 14 kilobit per second connection—a connection about 1,000 times slower than that of most Internet connections. That wasn’t too bad. It was also very economical.

With the so-called and premature, “death of the PC,” we are getting back to fairly dumb terminals such as iPads. They leave the processing and the heavy lifting to the cloud—today’s replacement for the mainframe.

Instead of a single (and secure) mainframe, the cloud today is usually a bunch, maybe hundreds, of small virus-prone personal computers which can be accessed on the Internet. These servers are hooked up together by a network of wires.

The servers (a marketing term) are connected by messages sent over the wires by a relatively inefficient and slow technology called TCP/IP (another great marketing term).

The long-used and alternative to small PC servers, the IBM mainframe, is in a single box and is not slowed down by a jumbled network of external wires. Unlike PC servers, the IBM mainframe has never been subject to viruses, Trojans, mal-ware, and the like.

Those were the days my friend—and they are coming back.

So why aren’t IBM mainframes used by all those brilliant techies out there? Blame it on the educational system which teaches only what the “pundits,” who may lack work experience put into the curriculum.

Fortunately, economics are forcing us forward into the past with cloud computers.

Hopefully, the value of the IBM mainframe will be rediscovered.

The chief fallacy of this model rests in the fact that it focuses on how much those actors are compensated, as opposed to how and why they are compensated. A far better perspective is perhaps gained using two classes, the Political Class and the Economic Class, with a third class emerging.
 
The Butcher, the Baker, the Candlestick Maker – The Economic Class
The Economic Class, at least in the United States, has historically been the numerically dominant group, although in recent decades its dominance has noticeably waned. The economic class would traditionally be called the Private Sector, but even that term has become misleading for reasons we will delve into later in this article.

Members of the Economic Class provide goods and services that are voluntarily sought by consumers and paid at rates that the market will bear. In an unfettered environment, the economic class would count farmers, engineers, coal miners, artists, physicians, janitorial staff, security guards, merchants and company executives among its membership. They participate freely and competitively in the market place, using the economic principles of Division of Labor and the Law of Comparative Advantage to increase the wealth of society as well as improve their personal position. Capital, entrepreneurial and human resources are brought together collaboratively to meet the needs of the market place. This is standard Economics 101 fare and hopefully generates little controversy among the readership. The important factor defining Economic Class membership is not the amount of money a person earns but rather their participation in the free and open market.
 
The Lazy Highwaymen – The Political Class
Like the Economic Class, members of the Political Class are not properly defined by their wealth but rather by how they exert influence in the market place. Whereas members of the Economic Class engage the market openly and voluntarily, members of the Political Class employ coercion and deceit to achieve their economic objectives. The coercion and deceit may either be exerted directly or, as is increasingly observed, through a variety of proxy agents. The most obvious members of the Political Class are, unsurprisingly, politicians. This group includes elected individuals at every level of government as well as various appointed officials.

In addition to this primary membership category, a second distinct group exists within the Political Class. It consists of various advocates including lobbyists, influence peddlers and miscellaneous other supplicants of government cheese. These creatures exist to serve as envoys for the third distinct group, which is made up of a patchwork of commercial entities that have learned that employing a politically well-connected pitch man replaces the need for an effective sales and marketing organization and in some cases even the requirement to have a desirable product.

Furthermore, it is commonly observed that members of the Political Class routinely migrate between the three aforementioned groups. An unfortunate consequence of allowing these economic actors to “cut in line” is that the rewarded event becomes the prevailing trend. Because of that, there is virtually no industry that has opted out of the rent-seeking game. From the military-industrial complex to agricultural subsidies, to the utterly corrupt banking system, the Political Class is inexorably claiming an increasing share of the world’s economic activity, a highly disturbing trend indeed.

Subsidized inefficiency, intentional destruction of productive assets and confiscation of property are but some of the effects that are observed when the Political Class employs force to serve those that are “more equal than others.” The arrangement can be summed up by saying that economic activity within the Economic Class places the bargaining power in the hands of the buyer whereas the economic activity within the Political Class places the bargaining power in the hand of the seller. This gives rise to dislocations in the free exchange of goods and services as well as widespread misallocations of capital as businesses adjust their practices based not on the normal mechanics of supply and demand but rather based on the dictates of the Political Class. Over the years, the scale of the intrusions of the Political Class into economies around the world, and very definitely here in the United States, has grown to the point where truly free markets are now the exception and not the norm.

Because the Economic Class operates in the realm of voluntary exchange whereas the Political Class employs force to achieve its objectives, many of which are anathema to the Economic Class, it follows that a significant amount of resources must be dedicated by the Political Class to the enforcement of their objectives. This role has traditionally fallen on the wide array of military and law enforcement organizations as well as numerous regulatory agencies and departments.

From the US military’s role in protecting the Political Class’s global interests and the IRS keeping the Treasury full, to the FDA serving “Big Pharma” and various law enforcement agencies maintaining a low-level chronic fear in the populace, the level of physical control that the Political Class needs to extend over productive resources is staggering. And in lockstep with the virtually unchecked growth in the Political Class, so has grown the size and scope of the enforcement branch deployed to protect its interests.

Paradoxically, for reasons I’ll touch on momentarily, the allegiance of this enforcement branch belongs to neither the Political Class whom they serve nor the Economic Class whom they “service.” In time, their level of influence grows to the point in which they become a class of their own. They are the Praetorian Class.
 
Legions and Lictors – the Praetorian Class
The Praetorian Class includes members of the Armed Services, federal, state and local law enforcement personnel as well as numerous militarized officials including agents from the DEA, Immigrations, Customs Enforcement, Air Marshals, US Marshals, and more. It also includes, although to a lesser extent, various stage actors in the expanding security theater such as TSA personnel. The main mission of the Praetorian Class is to keep the order of the day. This requires displaying an intimidating presence in their interactions with the Economic Class.

As the Praetorian Class ascends, the clear, albeit unstated, message that emerges is that actions and events in the Economic Class only occur with its tacit consent. Whether driving on roads, traveling in the air, visiting public land, walking down the street or even living in your own home, every action you take is predicated on its permission. By preconditioning the populace to enforcement of its edicts, most of which are completely arbitrary, the Praetorian Class sets itself up for a high degree of autonomy in its actions. This is confirmed by the fact that consequences for malfeasance within the Praetorian Class are almost never observed, and when it happens, it typically becomes a grotesque spectacle in which one of their own is sacrificed as an example, so as to keep appearances of effective internal controls.

Members of the Praetorian Class are typically recruited from the Economic Class and usually from the lower socio-economic spectrum, which offers them an opportunity for personal and professional gain that otherwise might be out of their reach. Early on in the training and indoctrination process, a strong emphasis is placed on teamwork and advancing the welfare of the team above the individual. While independent thought is never overtly discouraged, the fact is that questioning authority and failing to display complete loyalty to the team results in censure, shunning and even expulsion. Naturally, the recruit learns in short order which behavior is rewarded and responds accordingly. This forges a lifelong, unbreakable bond between the brothers-in-arms. This bond can be observed when people proudly display unit insignia and decorations decades after their departure from service.

As they serve in their martial role, members of the Praetorian Class learn to despise members of the Political Class and to view the plight of the Economic Class with detachment or even contempt. Law enforcement and military personnel will converse behind closed doors about the most horrific injustices and brutalities with cavalier amusement. While perhaps natural, their training for violence and teamwork is a fundamental cause for why members of the Praetorian Class abandon their roots and in time come to view their peers “back on the farm” with contempt. Likewise, the steady displays of the craven and treacherous character of the Political Class causes the Praetorian Class to privately disavow emotional allegiance to their masters, usually early in their service.

Naturally, as the members of the Praetorian Class socially distance themselves from both their origins and their masters, even though they are paid to do their bidding, a new group identity among them emerges. Adoption of this group identity, forged by the training, indoctrination and work, defines membership in the Praetorian Class. Some of the characteristics of this identity include:

• Viewing everything and everyone according to a perceived threat posture. The members’ thought processes, beliefs and actions center on viewing the world through a paradigm of a graduated conflict spectrum and how to posture themselves accordingly. Even in the most mundane settings, their conversations tend to be awkward if not centered on their martial duties.
• Tight internal socialization. Because they view life through a martial paradigm, members tend to socialize almost exclusively amongst themselves. Immediate family members are expected to do the same, which naturally occurs anyway as they can share experiences that external relationships simply are unable to address.
• Loyalty is the highest honor. Whether referred to as the blue wall of silence or the brotherhood in arms, even the most egregious transgressions are buried. If the misdeeds are internal, meaning member versus member, the justice is handled internally. On the other hand, external missteps are typically swept under the rug and significant chicane is experienced by outsiders who seek to learn the truth.

In a relatively free and peaceful society, members of the communities that form the Praetorian Class lead a discrete existence. Members of the military commute to and from their place of work and are largely invisible to both the Political and Economic Class, certainly in communities that are not “Praetorian” communities. Attendance at cultural events in uniform is frowned upon, if not explicitly forbidden. During these times, members of the military and law enforcement are expected to live and operate outside the perception of other members of society, their purpose and function regarded with a sense of detachment and perhaps even subtle curiosity.

As the Political Class increasingly calls upon the Praetorian Class to ensure their order, however, their martial nature becomes more visible in the fabric of day-to-day life. This serves several purposes. For one, it allows the Political Class to demonstrate its willingness to use unlimited force to achieve its objectives, something that was always the case but is now made publicly visible. Rationalizing the increased public profile, a stream of honorifics is bestowed upon the Praetorian Class so that they may be presented as defenders of the Economic Class. This is accomplished through the time-tested use of pageantry, pomp and circumstance.

Over time, additional perquisites are bestowed upon the Praetorian Class including preferential treatment in both private and public facilities. Preferred air travel accommodations for uniformed personnel, including dedicated lines at TSA checkpoints and preferential boarding, have recently emerged as cultural standards that further distance the Praetorian Class from the masses.

Another clear change is the physical appearance of members of the Praetorian Class. The uniforms transition from relatively inconspicuous attire to “battle uniforms” such are those now standard issue to both the military and law enforcement personnel. These optics reinforce the position of the Praetorian Class as maintainers of public order, convey a message of physical dominance and establish chronic low-level fear among the masses. Sometimes referred to as the militarization of the police force, this characterization traditionally refers to the increasing firepower in even municipal police departments. Frequently lost in this observation, however, is the psychological impact that such a heavily armed police presence has on the “civilian” population – specifically that it further separates the Praetorian Class from the Economic Class.

As the influence of the Praetorian Class grows, so do the resources it consumes. This is manifested in the form of continuous “equipment” upgrades, training budgets and costly “interagency collaboration” in addition to the usual staff augmentation. This, of course, has the ancillary benefit of directing resources to equipment and service providers that are favored by the Political Class and in some cases may in fact be the primary purpose.

Perhaps less obvious is the need to constantly keep the Praetorian Class on the march. A bored Praetorian is a dangerous creature that will start looking for things to do. In order to keep the Praetorian Class engaged, they must be fed a continuous source of adversaries that they in turn actively engage. In “peace time,” actual engagement is replaced by training and rehearsing the defeat of the adversaries.

While the Praetorian Class emerges as its own entity, with allegiance only to the members’ peers, the most senior of the Praetorians are eventually invited to join the Political Class. Prior to that occurring, they are vetted for suitability, after which they become “made men.” Consider the long list of senior military officers and police chiefs that joined the ranks of the political elite. It is a sight to behold, their new-found support of the Political Class, a class they had silently held in contempt until their recent assumption. Metropolitan police chiefs, district attorneys and joint chiefs of staff are selected for political compatibility, not conviction of character.
 
How Does It Play Out?
History does not keep a flattering record of societies that allowed the Praetorian Class to rise. The Roman Empire’s decline from splendor to squalor extended for two centuries whereas the Nazi Third Reich collapsed in less than two decades. The continuous drain on productive resources, continuous warfare against new foes, abrogation of human rights and liberties and a pervasive culture of fear inevitably send the society into a tail spin. Some societies are able to observe the retreat of the Praetorian Class, but it is usually a function of economic necessity and often after a great price has been paid by the general population.

Unfortunately, as the tragedy unfolds, the Economic Class often tries to ride out the calamity. This is understandable, since people have a limited capacity to internalize long-term trends. In fact, because people adjust to new circumstances relatively quickly, it is almost impossible for them to compare the condition of life in the present versus the past. The common vernacular for this concept is “the new normal”, which upon the slightest reflection represents an obvious paradox, since the word normal implies a historically stable trend.
 
The Third Reich as a Textbook Example
History books are filled with examples of societies that have seen the rise of the Praetorian Class, followed by their own subsequent collapse, ranging from the Roman Empire to the Soviet Union. Of all the examples, however, none seems more instructive than the rise and fall of the Nazi Third Reich in Germany.

Over a period of two decades, starting with the collapse of the Weimar Republic and the end of World War II, Germany saw the rise of a charismatic demagogue, the rise of police and paramilitary forces, the development of a military-industrial complex, the assumption of industry by the State, the demonization and persecution of scapegoats finally resulting in widespread warfare and societal ruin. Because the timeline is relatively compressed compared to other historical examples, spanning a single generation, the Third Reich serves as an excellent example of the broader consequences a society experiences when we observe the rise of the Praetorian Class. Furthermore, by virtue of its recent occurrence, many cultural and technological parallels serve as clear milestones.
 
Call to Action for the Economic Class
In order to evade the inexorable path to ruin, two critical actions must be taken. First, it is imperative to understand historically how events play out, identifying key milestones along the process. Some milestones may include the level of military spending, such as the $700 billion that the United States spends annually on defense. Consider the escalating threat propaganda. Leading up to the war with Iraq in 2003, a common justification heard was “We gotta fight them there, so we don’t have to fight them here.” Apparently that strategy didn’t work, since the 2012 National Defense Authorization Act declared the United States part of the global battlefield. Is it the increasing monitoring and control exerted over the media, including the subpoena and detention of free-speech activists? Or perhaps it is the tortuous argument that the private minting of silver coins bearing no resemblance to US legal tender currency represents domestic terrorism.

As the saying goes, “History does not repeat, but it does rhyme”, which is to say there are events that have played out universally in the past and are likely to do so again. An implied task that emerges is the need to be an avid student of history. Usurpations of power observed today have historical precedents in some form or another and therefore serve in some instances as predictable milestones.

Second, identify the milestone that defines the “point of no return,” at which point taking no action is likely to have very adverse consequences. This is a very difficult task emotionally as it usually requires taking drastic action before circumstances clearly warrant it. It may involve winding down business and social commitments while conditions on the surface still seem fine. This, of course, represents a personal balancing act. While there is merit in the saying that it is better to be a month early than a minute late, there is a practical limit to the value of that axiom. Predicting a financial collapse twenty years early, and making adjustments accordingly, results in significant opportunities lost, both personally and professionally.
 
In Summary
The emergence and rise of the Praetorian Class is a common observation in societies that have transitioned from market-based meritocracies to societies governed by coercive syndicates formed by the Political Class. The Praetorian Class is formed and grown to defend the Political Class and in time becomes the dragon that rules its master. It represents a highly disturbing trend because it foretells the decline, not the advance, of a society. In some instances, the decline is peaceful, clearing the path for an improved future. Unfortunately, in many instances that is not the case. The Political Class leverages the full force of the Praetorian Class representing significant loss in wealth, personal freedom and, in many cases, human life. For this reason, it is critical that productive members of society take steps to protect themselves.

Pete Kofod is the founder and president of Datasages (www.datasages.com), a technology services firm that offers cloud computing and strategic technology services to various private organizations. Before entering the technology sector, Pete served with the US Military, both in the United States and abroad, where he forged many close friendships that still thrive today.

Pete is a property owner at La Estancia de Cafayate in Argentina and enjoys a variety of outdoor activities including tennis, skydiving and hiking. His most recent adventure is pursuing his private pilot’s license. Pete is married and homeschools his two children.

This article is published with the permission of Pete Kofod & Casey Research

Now, on to the next mission

In 2012, there will be a global downturn on all fronts, aborting what has been said to be a recovery (but which is not when inflation is factored in).

In Europe, youth unemployment is 45% in Greece and 49% in Spain. The percentage of available US workers who are employed is already at a depression level of 64%.

China will be forced to devalue its currency to flood the West with more cheap goods. This will cause the West to turn its back on globalization and head for isolationism—which is America’s only hope. You have to manufacture in your own country, not just sit back and buy other countries’ goods.

Not only the United States, but Japan has lost its AAA rating—with more to come, including Italy, Spain, and possibly France. The dominoes of Austria, Hungary, Ukraine, and Croatia will follow.

America will be spared for a while, as others consider it a “safe haven.” When that thought wears off look for Wall Street to collapse. More U.S. banks will go bust and be seized by the FDIC. Venerable Kodak will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

A recent study showed that 42 percent of American men raised in the bottom fifth of incomes stay there as adults. That shows a level of persistent disadvantage much higher than in Denmark (25 percent) and Britain (30 percent)—a country famous for its class constraints.

American social mobility is dead and gone. The American dream is dead.

Politics will fracture further, radicalizing liberals and the hard-liners. America’s political system, now paralyzed, will remain so—indefinitely, as its form of government has become out of date—an anachronism—designed for a much smaller country and is over two hundred years out of date.

As proof, the ancient traditions of a creaking American congress have already failed. The parliamentary form of government and Prime Minister that America needs will never arrive—America’s dead constitution is no more than a religious relic—but it is untouchable!

Even Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg agrees that the U.S. Constitution is a relic. Recently, she was asked: “Would your honor’s advice be to get a part of other countries’ constitutions as a model, or should we develop our own draft?

Her response:

“You should certainly be aided by all the constitution-writing that has gone on since the end of World War II. I would not look to the U.S. constitution, if I were drafting a constitution in the year 2012. I might look at the constitution of South Africa. That was a deliberate attempt to have a fundamental instrument of government that embraced basic human rights, had an independent judiciary. It really is, I think, a great piece of work that was done.

“Much more recent than the U.S. Constitution is Canada has a Charter of Rights and Freedoms. It dates from 1982. You would almost certainly look at the European Convention on Human Rights. Yes, why not take advantage of what there is elsewhere in the world? I’m a very strong believer in listening and learning from others.”

Germany will abandon the Euro to save itself, as will Greece, both for different reasons. Hungary has re-engineered its constitution to become a fascist state and there is more of that on the way in Europe and in the United States.

The failed states of Iraq, Libya, Egypt, and even South Sudan (with more to come) will make life dangerous for us all—especially with 20,000 surface-to-air missiles missing from Libya. The tinder-box which is the Middle East will burst into flames.

Iraq is already in a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis—a civil war which only Iran can win.

Hillary, the Christian Crusader, who helped engineer Libya into a failed state, is talking to the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood, because there is no one left in Egypt for her to negotiate with.

This will let slip the dogs of terror as the lack of faith in governments, their corruption, and their financial collapse will spur the rise of America’s militia groups, Italy’s Red Brigades, the Moslem Brotherhood, and a resurgent Al Qaeda, on our march to fascism and anarchy.

In America, militia groups will continue to grow. FBI officials said it fielded nearly 16.5 million queries from firearms sellers in 2011 as Americans went on an apparent gun-buying spree. That was up 15 percent from 2010.

It’s time to protect yourself. Here’s a tip for you: Utah is an increasingly popular place for gun owners from all over the country to get concealed-firearms permits because the state’s permits are cheap, easy to apply for even if buyers do not live in Utah, and recognized in nearly three dozen other states. Load up in Utah.

Welcome to the crash of 2012.

Obama's forged long-form birth certificate

For the first time in dozens of court cases challenging Barack Obama’s eligibility to be president, a judge has ruled that Obama must, in order to be a candidate on the Georgia ballot for president in 2012, meet the constitutional demands for candidates for the office.

A hearing has been scheduled later this month for evidence on the issue that has plagued Obama and his presidency since long before he took office. At issue is the constitutional requirement that a president be a “natural-born citizen.”

The ruling came on January 3, 2012  from Judge Michael M. Malihi of the Georgia state Office of State Administrative Hearings.

Georgia state law requires “every candidate for federal” office who is certified by the state executive committees of a political party or who files a notice of candidacy “shall meet the constitutional and statutory qualifications for holding the office being sought.”

Georgia also grants the secretary of state and any “elector who is eligible to vote for a candidate” in the state the authority to raise a challenge to a candidate’s qualifications, the judge determined.

While Obama’s attorney, Michael Jablonski, had argued that the requirements didn’t apply to candidates for a presidential primary, the judge said that isn’t how he reads state law.

“Statutory provisions must be read as they are written, and this court finds that the cases cited by [Obama] are not controlling. When the court construes a constitutional or statutory provision, the ‘first step … is to examine the plain statutory language,” the judge wrote. “Section 21-2-1(a) states that ‘every candidate for federal and state office’ must meet the qualifications for holding that particular office, and this court has seen no case law limiting this provision, nor found any language that contains an exception for the office of president or stating that the provision does not apply to the presidential preference primary.”

Singapore President Tony Tan

Tony Tan’s track record at Government of Investment Corporation (GIC) has been a disaster. According to the Wall Street Journal, during his time as Deputy Chairman, GIC lost approximately $42 billion.

In January 2008, just when investors are shorting U.S. banks, Tony Tan spent billions of dollars of Singapore taxpayers’ monies to invest in Citigroup and UBS.

To justify his reckless actions, Tony Tan said in an interview with the Business Times, “In the case of UBS, they have a worldwide global wealth management business which is something not replicable by any bank. Citigroup has an international worldwide consumer business which is also unique.”

At the time, Jim Rogers, a former partner of George Soros in the famed Quantum Fund, said he felt “sad” for Singapore as it would be losing a lot of money.

Rogers continued, “They’re making a big mistake; these banks have many more problems still ahead. They should wait until these companies are really on the ropes a few years from now . . . and trading at $5 a share.”

Rogers also expressed doubts about the capability of GIC’s fund managers, including Tony Tan, “I know these people, and they have never given me the impression that they’re smarter than anyone else…They have gigantic amounts of money, but they’ve made a bad judgment in these cases.”

A few months later, the value of GIC’s shares in Citigroup and UBS crashed after both got mired in toxic debts during the 2008 global financial crisis.

The news was naturally censored by the Singapore media, but the Wall Street Journal reported that GIC suffered a loss around 59 billion Singapore dollars (US$41.6 billion) in 2008, making it one of the worst years for the sovereign wealth fund since it was established in 1981.

Now, Tony Tan is Singapore’s president.

A sea of baccarat tables at Marina Bay Sands

Casino operator Marina Bay Sands (developed by Las Vegas Sands) is taking five high-rolling gamblers to court to recover $7.5 million they allegedly owe. (The amounts are in Singapore dollars-77 cents, US)

Malaysians Por Boon Chuan and Chock Kok Sui are accused of owing the casino guys $518,436 and $1.9 million, respectively.

Chinese national Zhang Dechun, who is based in Macau, allegedly owes $1.94 million, and Indonesian Husni Muchtar $920,500.

Singapore-based Japanese Takami Shinichi allegedly owes $2 million. He is currently the only one fighting the case.

High Court pre-trial conferences will be held for each of the cases in the next two months.

According to court papers filed against each of the alleged debtors over the past two months, all five were said to have been premium players who became members of the Paiza, an exclusive club for valued patrons.

The gamblers had given the casino signed blank checks in case they failed to make good on their debts. This way the casino could fill in whatever amount was owed.

Guess what? The checks for the $7.5 million owed by the gamblers all bounced, including the one in China.

Por Boon Chuan applied for a $1 million line of credit last year, but was given only $500,000.

Por Boon Chuan failed to pay back the $500,000 worth of chips even after the 90-day grace period he was given, after which an enormous 12% cent interest rate kicked in. Casinos play for keeps. Shouldn’t the guy change his name to Poor Boon Chuan?

Por Boon Chuan failed to respond to letters from the law firm, Harry Elias Partnership, acting for the casino, and another check from Por Boon Chuan also bounced. With interest Por Boon Chuan now owes $518,436.

Chock Kok Sui, 53, an investment company director, applied for a $5 million credit line and was granted a paltry $1 million in chips in June last year. He raised this to $1.9 million and was issued another $900,000 in chips by the casino. These casino guys really know how to rope-a-dope. They are making Chop Suey out of Chock Kok Sui who allegedly owes the casino guys $1.855 million.

The Chinese guy Zhang Dechun, 49, applied for and got $2 million in credit when he visited the casino in November last year. He is now said to owe the casino $1.943 million.

The Singapore Japanese mark, Takami Shinichi, allegedly placed $300,000 with the casino to qualify as a premium player in June last year. He allegedly started with a $200,000 credit line, which increased to $1 million in February this year. He sought an increase to $2 million, which was approved by the casino. The casino claims Takami (should be Take-Me)  has not settled an outstanding debt of $1,999,324.

Take-Me’s lawyer Sunil Singh Panoo is seeking to void the suit on some sort of technicality. Lots of luck!

Casinos are not impressed with technicalities. People who owe casinos money usually don’t do too well.

According to the Singapore Straits Times, “Casinos haul players to court usually only as a last resort.”

Huh? Don’t they show movies about Vegas in Singapore?

Really? Court is the last resort? Maybe, in Singapore, they don’t break legs, etc., but the future does not look good for Chop Suey, Take-Me, Poor Boon Chuan, and the Chinese guy who hopes to live long enough to see Macau again.

Happy winners Bush & Cheney

The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), a military appropriations bill empowers the government to designate any U.S. citizen within the country as a terrorist and to have the military hold him indefinitely without trial and without the right to habeas corpus, which is the right to be brought before a court for a judgment on the legality of one’s imprisonment.

When President Obama signs S-1867, the National Defense Authorization Act, it will then it be legal for American citizens to be arrested on United States soil, and to be held indefinitely without trial. No proof of wrongdoing is required and those accused are subsequently relegated to the ‘military commissions justice system.’  The accused are then reduced to the status of ‘ an unlawful enemy combatant,’ and are subject to extroardinary rendition, and indefinite detention—even to a life sentence.

The House and Senate (93-7) have now both passed the bill and it is on Obama’s desk, where it is anticipated that he will quickly sign it.

In effect the legislation is a declaration of martial law and revocation of habeas corpus throughout the country.  This puts the United States on the same footing as Nazi Germany, Singapore and certain countries in Southeast Asia, which can imprison their citizens as long as they pleas-with no charges.

The U, S.  Constitution prohibits suspension of the right of habeas corpus “unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it.”

While habeas corpus was suspended in certain circumstances during the Civil War, there is no rebellion or invasion in America-yet.
However, the mere improbable danger of an American uprising and foreign terrorists do not constitute rebellion or invasion.

If the bill becomes law the president and his successors will gain dictatorial power, the power exercised by the worst tyrants in history—Hitler, Stalin, and Mao.

No wonder Newt Gingrich is talking about arresting judges who to no “cooperate.” Newt could not hope to do that under today’s laws, but just wait until Obama signs the bill is signed into law.

The president (and that could be Newt) would then have the power to kidnap anyone off the street or out of his own home and lock him away incommunicado forever-including members of Congress—anybody!

Strangely the U.S.  media, which delights on terrifying the American public, has said nothing against this law. 

Maybe our media’s talking heads are afraid of disappearing themselves.

December 31, 2011 update:

On this day, President Obama signed S-1867, the National Defense Authorization Act into law.

The Drone

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ratcheted up claims surrounding the American drone the country claims it downed, telling Venezuelan state TV that it has been “able to control” it.

“Those who have been in control of the spy plane will analyze the plane’s system,” Ahmadinejad bragged, according to CNN. “The systems of Iran are so advanced also, like the system of this plane.”

In other words, Iran hacked the drone.

Officials claim they brought the drone down with a cyber attack after spotting it flying over Iranian air space. American officials have not confirmed that a missing U.S. drone was the one in the video, and said a malfunction was likely the real reason behind it’s going down and not an attack.

Iranian defense minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi also slammed the U.S. for not offering an apology.

“Their plane invaded Iran and Iranian forces reacted powerfully,” he told the semi-official Mehr news agency. “Now, instead of offering an apology to the Iranian nation, they impudently ask for the return of the plane.”

Fars News Agency also claimed the country had brought down 90 American drones in the past four years.

While it is improbable that Iran has managed to take down that many drones without notice, the American military was dealt another embarrassing blow on Tuesday, when another remote U.S. drone had crashed while landing off the East Coast of Africa, the AFP reported.

Now that Iran has hacked the drone, will a 13-year old kid be next?