Mauldin Newsletters

Bull in the China Shop

2019-01-18T10:00:00+00:00

The production of souls is more important than the production of tanks.... And therefore I raise my glass to you, writers, the engineers of the human soul.

Something Wicked This Way Comes

2019-01-11T10:00:00+00:00

For a couple of years now, the economic narrative has shown a comparatively strong US against weakness in Europe and some of Asia (NOT China). The US, we are told, will stay on top. I agree with that, as far as it goes... but I’m not convinced the “top” will be so great.

The Year of Living Dangerously

2019-01-04T10:00:00+00:00

Double, double, toil and trouble; Fire burn and cauldron bubble. …By the pricking of my thumbs, Something wicked this way comes. - William Shakespeare, Macbeth, Act IV, Scene I, 1606

Bear Markets, Fed Mistakes, and Quick Shots from John

2018-12-28T10:00:00+00:00

A winters day, In a deep and dark December… “Wait, it doesn’t feel like winter. It’s not deep and dark, and it’s actually warm, and the sun is shining. Toto Shane, I don’t think we’re in Kansas Texas anymore.”

Powell, the Third Mandate, the New Fed and Crawdads

2018-12-21T10:00:00+00:00

We have reached the best time of year, when we can look to the future with hope. We can stop wondering what will happen in 2018 and look forward to 2019. The investment industry always does this enthusiastically, as you will see in forecasts everywhere the next few weeks.

The Misunderstood Flattening Yield Curve

2018-12-14T10:00:00+00:00

Everybody is suddenly talking about the inverted yield curve. They’re right to do so, too, but alarm bells may be premature. Inversion is a historically reliable but early recession indicator. The yield curve isn’t saying recession is imminent, even if it were fully inverted, which it is not.

European Threats

2018-12-07T10:00:00+00:00

Someone asked recently how many times I had “crossed the pond” to Europe. I really don’t know. Certainly dozens of times. It’s been several times a year for as long as I remember.

Pyramids of Crisis

2018-11-30T10:00:00+00:00

In an increasingly divided world, we all share one great desire: self-preservation. Not just humans, either. The survival instinct exists in almost every living thing. Humans simply have greater ability to do something about it.

Double Debt Problem

2018-11-23T10:00:00+00:00

The selloff in GE is not an isolated event. More investment grade credits to follow. The slide and collapse in investment grade debt has begun… (and later) Don’t be fooled by bond prices holding up, because trading volumes are down. There are fewer bids in the market, and the dispersion of bids is wider. It is time to jog—not walk—to the exits of credit and liquidity risk. - Scott Minerd, Guggenheim Partners Chief Investment Officer

Seventh-Inning Debt Stretch

2018-11-16T10:00:00+00:00

Science tells us energy can neither be created nor destroyed within a closed system. Whatever amount is there will stay the same, though it might change form. If only the same were true for debt.