JOHN MURPHY REPORTS

Minneapolis Posts 5% Year over Year Decline in Home Prices – Case-Shiller Index Through November 2011

John Murphy — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 13:28:01 +0000

This past week the monthly Case-Shiller Home Price Index was released and the headlines are negative. 19 of the 20 metropolitan areas studied continued to decline through the month of November. Minneapolis has shown signs of improvement as I have expected for the past few months. While the price declines continue – down 5% year over year through November 2011, this pace of the declines have been slowing markedly since early in 2011 when we were posting 10-11% year over year declines.

It remains my expectation that in the Minneapolis area the Case-Shiller Index will start to show price increases for the Minneapolis area. At this pace, that might not occur until we see the data from the second half of 2012.

Below is a table with all the cities studied in the Case-Shiller Index.

(Click on images to enlarge)

Table: S&P Indices: Case-Shiller

Chart: Calculated Risk Blog

The Case-Shiller Index used to get a lot of attention but I’m getting the sense the public is a little weary of more bad housing news. Perhaps everyone is finally desensitized to the news. I also think that these reports have been bad for years so people just come to expect it. It will be interesting to keep an eye on this to see if it does finally turn within the next 12-24 months.

Case Shiller Index: Minneapolis / St Paul vs. Composite 20 – Jan 31st 2012 (craigkamman.com)
Case-Shiller: Home Prices Drop by 3.4% Year over Year – Minneapolis Down 8.4% (johnmurphyreports.com)
Case-Shiller Index: Minneapolis Housing Market Improves – Home Prices Declined by 7.4% Year Over Year (johnmurphyreports.com)
Case-Shiller Index Says Detroit And Washington DC Lead The Market (clewismortgage.wordpress.com)

RE/MAX Results Continues on the Acquisition Trail Buying Rochester and Austin MN Franchises

John Murphy — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 01:32:17 +0000

RE/MAX Results just announced that it has purchased the RE/MAX franchises in Rochester, MN as well as Austin, MN. Brenda Tushaus has a few more details on her blog post. It appears RE/MAX Results wants to go toe to toe with Edina Realty in terms of marketshare across the state.

NorthstarMLS Adds Homespotter Mobile App for Minneapolis St. Paul Realtors

John Murphy — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:49:27 +0000

This looks like it’s going to be a very cool app from NorthstarMLS. The agents reading this will know NorthstarMLS but the public may not. NorthstarMLS is the MLS provider for the Twin Cities region. Jim Buchta from the StarTribune had a nice story on Homespotter yesterday. The company that makes this app is based in Minneapolis and is called Mobile Realty Apps. Here is their press release announcing the implementation of the mobile app for NorthstarMLS in the Twin Cities area.

Case Shiller Index: Minneapolis / St Paul vs. Composite 20 – Jan 31st 2012 (craigkamman.com)
Minneapolis REALTORS Move to Electronic Signatures and Forms for Real Estate Contracts via Instanet Solutions (johnmurphyreports.com)

Are Third Party Real Estate Aggregator Sites Using Black Hat SEO Tactics to Block Real Estate Brokers?

John Murphy — Sun, 29 Jan 2012 15:36:48 +0000

Anyone who pays attention to internet marketing and specifically SEO (search engine optimization) strategies knows that black hat tactics are frowned upon in the business. The big battle in real estate right now has to do with the web. Over the past 5-6 years, the rise of third party real estate aggregators has been the cause of concern for real estate brokers. The risk has been that the third party aggregators would disintermediate the brokers and real estate agents by being the first point of contact for real estate consumers on the web.

Real estate brokers lost control of their listings many years ago. I think they were fooled by the allure of the web and getting additional exposure for their listings. They gave the listing information away for free in hopes of more eyeballs seeing their listings. Many did not realize they were giving away the store when they did that. More recently, real estate brokerages are fighting back and no longer allowing their listings to go to many of these third party aggregators such as Zillow, Trulia, and REALTOR.com.

Now these third party aggregators are being accused of using black hat SEO tactics to cut off links that go back to the original brokers site. If this is true, that’s quite a stunt these sites have pulled off. Let me get this straight, real estate brokers send their information to these third party sites for free, the third party sites use the listing data to generate tens of millions of dollars in advertising revenue, banner sponsorship sales, and then possibly lead referrals, and they are inserting “no follow” on the links back to the original brokers? If that is true, why are we doing business with these firms?

Check out the story from AGBeat on what the CEO of VHT is accusing the third party aggregators of when it comes to black hat SEO for real estate.

If you are a real estate agent or broker reading this, I recommend that you share this post with others in the business so that they can understand the ongoing challenges the real estate industry faces with these third party aggregators. In case you missed my last post, you’ll want to read about ARG Abbott Realty in San Diego pulling their listings.

Edina Realty discontinues 3rd Party Sites like Trulia and Realtor.com (craigkamman.com)
Third party real estate listing companies, too big to fail? (agbeat.com)
You Can Hide Your Black Hats but You Can’t Take the Proof Out of the Pudding (webimax.com)
Popular Black Hat SEO Strategies (danlew.com)

ARG Abbott Realty Group Pulls Listings from Real Estate Syndicators – Hammers Zillow, Trulia and REALTOR.com

John Murphy — Sat, 28 Jan 2012 17:40:39 +0000

I’ve come around on this issue and now agree with Jim Abbott, President and Broker for ARG Abbott Realty Group in San Diego. (Edina Realty pulled its listings from the syndicators about two months ago and were one of the first of the larger regional brokers to pull the plug).

Jim Kelly’s 7 minute video absolutely shreds Zillow, Trulia and REALTOR.com as ripping off REALTORS as well as misleading consumers. I find this all the time with these sites. Over and over again the data is not accurate and up to date on Zillow or Trulia. (I’m not quite as familiar with REALTOR.com and how good they are at keeping data accurate). Zillow and Trulia will often lead properties listed for sale even though they are no longer on the market. I see this time and time again. I suspect they will contact me and tell me I am wrong, but I can back that up within 5 minutes of searching right now.

It is now time for ALL BROKERS to PULL THEIR LISTINGS now from Zillow, Trulia and REALTOR.com.

I encourage you to watch Jim’s outstanding video of clearly explaining what is going on. Thank you Jim!

Another Broker Follows Edina’s Lead in Pulling Listings from Syndicators (bobgilberthomes.wordpress.com)
Edina Realty discontinues 3rd Party Sites like Trulia and Realtor.com (craigkamman.com)
Third party real estate listing companies, too big to fail? (agbeat.com)
Has Edina Realty Just Declared War on Real Estate Web Site Aggregators – Trulia and Realtor.com? (johnmurphyreports.com)
Confirmed: Edina Realty Pulls Its Real Estate Listings from Third Party Aggregators Trulia and REALTOR.com (johnmurphyreports.com)
The Rest of the Story for Edina Realty (bobgilberthomes.wordpress.com)

REALTORS Confidence Improves

John Murphy — Thu, 26 Jan 2012 02:59:41 +0000

The National Association of REALTORS published its latest findings on how REALTORS are feeling about sales activity and there is a noticeable improvement in the findings. Part of this might be due to seasonal issues but the could be discounted a bit because we are still in the depths of winter. It does seem like things are starting to pick up in many segments.

Chart: HousingWire

National Association of Realtors membership levels decrease (agbeat.com)
Real Estate Agent, Broker, Realtor: What is the Difference? (choiceofhomes.com)
Survey Says: Most Buyers Use A Realtor! (mortgageheathervt.com)
Realtors drive 3.6 billion miles a year (lansner.ocregister.com)

Has the Plymouth MN Housing Market Bottomed? Sure Looks Like We’re Close

John Murphy — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 23:06:31 +0000

The 2011 year end results are in. Below is a chart of the home sales stats for Plymouth, MN. Looking at the data, I think one would have to say it sure looks like we’ve bottomed.

Consider the following year over year statistics for the full years of 2010 vs. 2011:

New listings down 7%
Closed sales up 18%
Median sales price down by 1.6%
Average Sales Price up by 3.2%

Click to enlarge image

Chart: Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors

New Construction Homes for Sale Plymouth, MN (northwestplymouth.com)
The Only $500,000+ Homes in Plymouth MN That Are Currently Under Contract are New Construction Homes (johnmurphyreports.com)
Plymouth MN New Construction Report (johnmurphyreports.com)

Twin Cities Foreclosure and Short Sale Report Through December 2011

John Murphy — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 19:40:08 +0000

Check out the latest from the Minneapolis Area Association of Realtors with regard to Foreclosures and Short Sales in the Twin Cities. The big take aways are that inventory is falling in all segments – traditional sellers, foreclosures, and short sales.

Twin Cities Weekly Real Estate Market Update for week ending Jan 7, 2012 (craigkamman.com)
Twin Cities Shatters Record High Temp (lakemtka.wordpress.com)

Foreclosures Drop to Lowest Levels Since 2007 and Down 35% from 2010 Levels

John Murphy — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 12:55:41 +0000

The foreclosure business appears to be drying up. According to Housing Wire, there were 205,000 foreclosure filings in the month of December 2011. That’s the lowest monthly total since November 2007 and for the year 2011 was 35% lower than 2010.

Given the political football that foreclosures have become, it’s is difficult to know if this is a real slow down in foreclosures or if it’s just that the banks have slowed down the processing.

Question #3 for 2012: Will foreclosure activity increase in 2012? (calculatedriskblog.com)
US DATA: RealtyTrac’s Yr-End 2011 U.S. Foreclosure a. (forexlive.com)
LPS on Mortgages: “Trend toward fewer loans becoming delinquent has halted” (calculatedriskblog.com)

Plymouth and Maple Grove Townhome Associations Reject Investors and Renters

John Murphy — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 23:24:36 +0000

I was showing townhomes today to some investors who would of course turn them in to nice rental units. However, we are increasingly running in to associations that have newly created restrictions against investors. Typically the way it works now is that they require a new owner to live in the unit for 2 years before turning it in to a rental unit. Apparently the thinking is that accidental landlords will become better landlords and have better renters than professional investors. Perhaps they are right.

The boards believe they are better off with owner occupied units no matter what the price. It’s a difficult decision because it’s likely that prices will continue to slide for these big townhome complexes as they seek owner occupants. There are plenty of investors ready to purchase but can’t because of the restriction.

New Developments in Plymouth MN – Custom Homes and National Builders (northwestplymouth.com)
Commuting to Minneapolis from Plymouth and Medina: Highway 55 and County Road 101 Intersection (johnmurphyreports.com)
Top Residential Transactions Plymouth MN – Finance and Commerce (johnmurphyreports.com)

JOHN MURPHY REPORTS

Minneapolis Posts 5% Year over Year Decline in Home Prices – Case-Shiller Index Through November 2011

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