Jude Gomila

The Power of Gaming

2012-04-30T00:27:00.003+01:00

Up until the 1980s, TV, Film and magazines were the dominant forms of entertainment. The majority of content was passively consumed from screen to eye; people sat in front of media and took information into their brains in one direction. Games came along and changed everything. For the first time, consumers could actively change the outcome of the story line. They could change their viewpoint or camera angle in real-time and explore alternative plots. They could remove constraints from the content and take more control over what they were engaging in. The consumer had become the director.

But why did content evolve this way? Why did consumers want to affect the outcome of the content they were engaging with? Why were they not happy sitting back and having the content delivered to them on a plate?

Humans are naturally, very creative: they want to be able to control their own realities around them and live out their dreams. Interactive content is a way of achieving this. For most people though, the discovery of this creativity has not been unlocked. Gaming can lower the barrier to entry to creativity by way of making it cheaper to access a metaphorical canvas of some sort. With gaming, people are always craving experiences that are more accessible, fun and realistic. For that reason, the gaming industry is always changing, innovating to create new expectations.

Given the fundamental desire of humans to experience the most exciting things in life, we are moving to a model where physical experiences are being packaged up and mass distributed as virtual experiences.

The first consumer video games started out life on home computers. Given this initial distribution channel, it’s no surprise that the first video games were going to be made by and designed for nerds. But as the distribution channel changed from home-brew computers to consoles, then to Facebook and mobile, a new type of gamer started to appear. The parents of the new generation had been brought up with games. The broad demographic of the new distribution channels such as Facebook and mobile threw games in front of hundreds of millions of mass-market consumers, the majority of whom weren’t traditional gamers. Mobile made it something you did on-the-go, a time-killer rather than a hobby. Gaming became mainstream.

The accessibility and social functionality of Facebook made gaming much more attractive to users who, up until that point, had thought games were only for teenage kids. What was once considered an activity that parents frowned upon became an accepted family activity. By taking a player’s social interactions and using elements of them within a game, another layer of realism can be added. Draw Something is a great example of a game that integrates social interactions while making the user feel close to their friends while playing.

Games have never simulated real-life desires more effectively than today. The dream 100-acre plot of rich green forest has been replicated with Farmville, the excitement of firing a bazooka and controlling a predator drone embodied in Call of Duty. The barriers-to-entry to diverse life experiences have been lowered by gaming. Consumers can now fly a virtual jet fighter, build virtual cities, design the most intricate structures, explore space and express competitiveness on a global scale, all for the price of a $1 mobile game.

The boundary between games and reality is becoming blurry but there are significant barriers to overcome on the technological side to bring the two fields into unison. I see gaming as a version of reality with infinite possibilities which is currently limited by technological constraints. First up, games are limited to being fairly 2D right now. As with film, the transition to 3D has not been an easy one but one expects that just as it took years to convert the film industry across from black and white to color, it will take longer to convert from 2D to 3D.

Missing experiential senses are also a constraint on games becoming the new reality. Smell, taste and touch are required to really allow the experience of a game to merge with reality. Given the current status of sensory experience in the film industry, I don’t expect to see additional senses become a standard in gaming any time soon.

The third major constraint on gaming is interaction. Wii and Kinect have made great progress on how we interact with games; the touch and swipe of mobile games are also natural motions. Interactions with games will become more physics based and the sense of being immersed with your gaming environment will deepen.

So to summarize, gaming:

Provides a method of fulfilling human desire
Lowers the barrier to entry to experiences
Allows humans to exert extended control over their environment and experiences
Allows experiences at the edges of real-life, deep-seated desires (e.g., making something grow, explode or travel fast)
The future of gaming is ever more exciting. We've flirted with new capabilities, but have yet to grasp truly immersive experiences - meaning there's still healthy opportunity in the market.

We should work backwards from reality when thinking and designing games of the future. Imagine real life but start removing certain constraints. Take gravity away, for example, I can jump into the sky! Fun, right? A game in its ideal form, is the ability to dream consciously.

Archimedes wanted a lever long enough to move the world. Games are that lever.

Does the Uncertainty Principle also apply to Primes?

2012-03-19T06:06:00.002Z

I'm inspired today by this paper. It goes onto explain how we can use pure geometry to model particles. One can model photons, protons, neutrons, electrons etc with 4-dimensional Riemann manifolds (a 4 dimensional analogue of a Riemann surface). I'm interested to know the limits of the beautiful link we see between the physical world and Mathematics and dive into what other ways we might be able to use geometry and numbers to explain the physical world.

The Riemann Hypothesis provides a conjecture that there is a relationship between prime numbers: behind the discrete lonely primes, exists a wave form linking all the primes together. Prime numbers have both discrete and wave like properties and are considered the basic building blocks in Mathematics. We also see particles in the physical world with the properties of being discrete and wave like. It seems as if the relationship between prime numbers is mirrored in physical particles. Just as particles can communicate with each other while in a entangled state, prime numbers also can communicate with each other.

Solving the Riemann Hypothesis will provide insight into the particle/wave like nature of prime numbers and in turn provide insight into particles in the physical world. This is a $1 million dollar prize put out by the Clay Institute to solve the Riemann Hypothesis.

Taking this analogy further, we swing our gaze to the Uncertainty Principle. In the physical world, we cannot get the exact location of a particle. Even more curious, would be to say that the Uncertainty Principle of particles we see in the physical world would also exist in prime numbers. I.e. by looking at the general distribution of prime numbers we lose the exact position of a individual prime number. Does the Uncertainty Principle apply to prime numbers (Case A)? Or rather, if we solve the Riemann Hypothesis and in some way gain the ability to predict all primes, will we be able to devise new ways to observe an exact location of a physical particle, breaking the Uncertainty Principle (Case B).

If it is not possible to observe the physical world below a Planck length (doing so would require so much energy that your would instantly form a black hole that would evaporate via Hawking radiation), then, by analogy it may not be possible to view Mathematics beyond a particular resolution (Case A) and that the Uncertainty Principle applies to Mathematics.

--Update [26th March 2012]--

After further reading, I found out that in 1929 Robertson generalize the Uncertainty Principle beyond position and momentum of a particle to generalized operators. For arbitrary Hermitian operators A{hat} and B{hat} is given by:

A{hat} and B{hat} can be used to obtain uncertainty relations "for any two observables that do not commute." E.g. you can have an uncertainty relation between Kinetic energy and position of a particle or, for example, angular momentum and position of a particle, or energy and time.

Question: What are the limits of the definition of "observable" and how is it defined?

Social Graph Model

2012-02-13T03:58:00.001Z

Notes

Important: diagram is not to scale.
Linkedin also should be added. The part that overlaps with Facebook, Branchout is going after.
Youtube is moving into closer to the middle with the recent changes being made.
Others that should be added: social cam (videos), hitpost (sports), everyme (phone graph right at the core of the friends circle) and various other sub graphs.
I'm working on Heyzap and going after that circle.
Location lays inside the Friends circle as Foursquare is a symmetrical graph
Twitter should really be labelled news/political

25 Startup Ideas for 2012

2012-01-29T08:16:00.001Z

I've listed a bunch of ideas I've been thinking about over the last year. Ranging from the fantastical to highly fundable. No specific order to the list and I've removed ones that friends are building in stealth.

1. Build a bitcoin bank that works

Idea: make bitcoin work for the masses.

1. Take the construction of RPC servers into the cloud.

2. Slap on a nice consumer site for setting up accounts.

3. Go into the market on a zero cut basis and disrupt paypal.

4. Let the IRS/FEDs be involved and stick to the law.

2. Build an educational learning platform

1. Take the concepts of codeacademy and Bloc and apply them to general learning areas outside of programming.

2. Gamify learning core subjects: specially maths and physics to start.

3. Allow the community to make lessons and have voting systems for quality.

4. Charge access to users for advanced courses and make the rest free.

3. Build a biological satellite

This satellite would self deploy/build itself at least partially to reduce weight, cost and construction time.

4. Build a bioCAD for designing and testing bio hacking projects

This would be somewhat like the circuit design tools to build electronic circuits. One would be able to draw out using standard components from from iGEM and other places. You would be able to test the circuits out and run chemical simulations to prevent cross talk issues.

You would be able to output your final plasmid sequence once you had tested the circuit.

One would be able to download plasmid sequences / circuits and logic from the community.

5. Wonga for the USA

Wonga have been making cash money hand over check writing fist in the UK. Part of Western Unions business is up for disruption.

6. Build a YCombinator of biology

This space is 100% open right now.

7. Build the database of biology

1. Piece together, scrap and compile all the structured data out there on biology

2. Make a database for primers, parts, genes, promotors, proteins, bio programs etc.

3. Make a super clean API for your database

8. Build a desktop machine to read/write cells for under $1000

1. Take a DNA sequencer. Hook it up to make primers for PCR

2. Construct a primer database

3. Link up the primer database to your DNA sequencer

4. Link up your PCR machine to a home DNA sequencer or send it out to halycon molecular.

5. Create a set of programs to run experiments, download primers and PCR anything you want and inject into cells in your bedroom. All in one box.

Conclusion

Cut the cycle time down for experiments. Open up bio hacking to the mass engineering population.

9. Build quantum gears

The maths

store energy using quantum gears

more efficient bacteria swimming / flagella design

quantum difference engine, hard wired mathematical logic

soft gears (switch gears continuously

10. Build a holodeck

1. Build a bank of 40khz ultrasonic transducers that are mapped resonate at a point in 3D space. Say the size of the room.

2. Once you have this down, advance to create surface fields of air pressure in 3D space.

3. Use auto stereo lithography or the xbox kinetic / wii mote 3D hack to get 3D visuals.

4. Map the 3D visual data to a calibrated touch surface.

Conclusion

You got a holodeck - the rest is optimization.

11. Build an Etsy for Intellectual property

12. Build a quantum dot stirling engine

This would be done on a nano film. The objective would be to build a power plant that would run at near carnot efficiency and could be not just mounted onto chips but sprayed onto surfaces.

13. Reading DNA invirto

1. Modulate the capacitance of the cell membrane using a programmed plasmid that can alter the capacitance of a cell membrane

2. Use a carbon nanotube placed across the cell to read the capacitance.

Conclusion

No more huge machines for DNA sequencing.

Extension

Write DNA sequences into plasmids using the capacitance of the cell wall via the nano tube. If one could get this to work, you could reprogram your biology in real time from the cloud.

[Update: the better solution was how Ion Torrent solved this and they just got acquired. They used arrays to detect ions during polymerazation of DNA, detect PH change and the voltage of the ion - smart]

14. A BankSimple for SMBs

15. Airbnb for Activities

16. Stripe for ACH payments

17. A better Wikipedia

Wikipedia lacks a ton of useful information when it comes to researching subjects. Quora questions, youtube videos, social information, extensive academic papers, social groups around the subject.

18. A BankSimple for the payroll industry

19. 23andme for live variables

E.g. HDL and LDH level, insulin levels, testosterone.

20. A purely mobile consumer bank

21. Mobile version of craigslist with map [yardsale, invested 2011]

22. Mint.com for SMBs [invested indinero 2010]

23. Pure Mobile version of likealittle

24. A "google voice" for credit cards

25. Uber for food

Note: this is not grubhub

Is there a 4th missing component in the mechanical world?

2010-11-19T07:33:00.036Z

The mem resistor in electronics has taken the world by storm, I believe there may be a missing 4th component of the mechanical world. This could change mechanical systems forever.

In 2002 my maths tutor Professor Malcolm C. Smith from the Cambridge University department of Engineering discovered the missing 3rd component of the mechanical world - the inerter.

Using circuit theory he predicted and built the mechanical world's version of the electrical capacitor. This component is now used in top suspension systems in McClaren's F1 cars.

What's interesting is that circuit theory can be used to relate mechanical building blocks with electrical building blocks. A resistor in the electronics world is a damper in the mechanical world. A spring also correlates to an inductor. In electronics we had discovered the capacitor. It took until 2002 to discover the capacitor equivalent of the mechanical world - the inerter!

If we look to circuit theory for electronics. V = Voltage, I = current, q = charge, Φ = flux.

Resistors have an existing relationship of f(V,I) = O. E.g. V=IR => (V/I) - R = 0
Capacitors have an existing relationship of f(q,V) = O
Inductors have an existing relationship of f(Φ,I) = O
Mem resistors have an existing relationship of f(Φ,q) = O

In mechanical systems voltage (V) equates to force (F), current (I) equates to velocity (v), flux (Φ) equates to negative momentum (p) and charge (q) equates to position (x).

If we take a look to circuit theory again this time for mechanics. F = force, v = velocity, x = position, p = momentum.

Dampers have an existing relationship of f(F,v) = O.
Inerters have an existing relationship of f(x,F) = O
Springs have an existing relationship of f(p,v) = O
"Missing 4 component" have an existing relationship of f(p,x) = O

There is no recorded component for the case of f(p,x) = O

I'm going to call this the "mem damper" for now, here is a brand new component symbol for you as the main post image.

Issues

Please comment if this next paragraph is completely wrong but in Hamiltonian mechanics, position and momentum are supposed to be independent, but the Heisenberg uncertainty principle relates them. What does this mean? Is this a quantum device or does this paragraph need to be removed?

Applications

Suspension maybe, more efficient Stirling engines? Unknown right now. Give me some ideas, I'd love to hear from you.

What makes Facebook so strong?

2010-11-01T00:11:00.010Z

Facebook have some super strong network effects underpinning their company.

1. The social graph. Knowing which friends are connected to other friends is super powerful. The more friends that you add to your graph, the stronger this network effect becomes. It's interesting to watch how the "suggested friends" feature first suggested friends that had very high mutual friends (inner graph), then went out to connect people on the outside of my graph with low numbers of mutual friends. It's almost as if that entire feature is designed to perfect their strongest network effect by sweeping through the entire graph making sure that you have connected to everyone you remotely remember.

2. Facebook Credits. This is going to be one of the more interesting network effects. As the number of unspent coins inside Facebook increases, the reason for new applications to integrate with FB credits strengthens. Furthermore, the utility to the user goes up with each additional application doing deep integration with FB credits. Currently FB credits is only used inside Facebook. It makes sense to at some point allow FB creds to be used with FB connect outside of Facebook.com. Eventually, FB will probably make it compulsory to use FB creds if an external site is using FB Connect. Watch out!

3. Application ecosystem. Every app that comes onto the facebook.com including games adds to the ecosystems value. The data that is output from the apps into the streams (minus the noise), also adds to their data network effect. Thousands of developers and people work inside the Facebook ecosystem to make compelling apps. Every company they can get to work on their platform leverages the collective efforts of an entire industry to improve the Facebook Platform.

4. Photos/videos.. Every photo you upload to Facebook becomes an important reason to return and stick with Facebook. This is why Facebook want to release hi resolution pictures and pay for this bandwidth.

5. Like button.. Every "like" that is made is a collection of social/behavioral data attached to general objects. This is an ultimate collection of mini network effects. Facebook own an important marketing outlet for so many groups of objects including: celebrities, politicians, films, bands - the list goes on forever.

6. Facebook Connect.. Facebook Connect is a huge leverage of the internet. Not only does it allow Facebook to acquire users to fuel their main network effect, FB Connect is actually a network effect in itself. It means that they eventually will have every website building on the FB platform.

7. At an org chart level. Facebook have created a killer team of super smart people. They continue to pull in some of the best talent in the Valley. This is a network effect that exists outside of their platform; at an organizational level.

8. Profiles. Obvious but real. This is a collection of a representation of what will soon be all people in the world.

9. Data.Facebook have a huge amount of data that they can leverage ranging from behavioral to location data to wall posts.

Disruption Risks to Facebook

Facebook have created a new social fabric of the web. As usage is shifting to mobile, if Facebook want to remain relevant, they must own a mobile platform. This is going to be Facebook's biggest challenge yet as a company. They are too restricted by building on Apple or Google. They must own the platform.

The other risk to Facebook is that a startup commoditizes the social graph and makes it more open with less restrictions. The issue with this is that Facebook ride on a perfect line of openness from a commercial point of view. This is evident from Facebook investing in Diaspora to remove this risk.

Losing their ecosystem. Virality K factors have been massively reduced and the super crazy growth of social apps has been slowed down. This could create a slow exodus of their developer community towards making other startups/apps that are not Facebook based.

For all the entrepreneurs out their working on their companies. Take a close look at your network effects and think about whether you can design these powerful forces into your business.

Mapping Out the Real Time Web

2009-07-20T08:38:00.012+01:00

(Click to expand the image)

I've knocked up a diagram to explain how I think the Real Time web looks like at a systems level. Hopefully people will find this an interesting way to come up with new ideas.

Data Level

Huge amounts of data are produced from many elements: sensors, platforms, applications, media and sites.

Sensors

This includes data from physical sensors and sensors arrays. In the future we will have GPS location tracked in real time, with heart rate, altitude, tilt, speed, acceleration and all other variables that we can capture fired out to the web. This opens up the opportunities for new and exciting applications for fitness, socializing, games and business improvement. Sensors also include microphones, cameras and video cameras.

Platform Level

This data can be entered through a variety of platforms including mobile, social networks and browsers.

Application Level

Applications like tweet deck are really taking off now. This could be seen to be included into platforms but applications are more of a subset of the platforms. The applications ride on top of the platforms.

Media Level

Media like video, music, games or pictures now create their own data trail into the real time web. For example, inside games you can retweet your score. Picture tagging and real time music tracking are other examples of media creating a real time data source.

Site Level

This could be included in the platform level but there are specific dedicated sites like twitvid.io (for video) and twitpic.com (for pictures) that are accelerating the data creation (among other functions).

Filtering Level

We now have a huge amount of data to process. There are many ways to filter the data. Including but not limited to rating based, location based, time based and socially based.

Application Level

Applications can filter the data for us. E.g. inside tweetdeck groups can be made to filter by social relevancy, time, or keyword based.

Spam

Spam is massively on the rise inside twitter - new filters must be made to solve this. A very solvable problem.

Location filtering

One of the more exciting filtering methods. Location based filtering is taking off in a big way with a great example being the iphone app foursquare. Real time + location helps us move to an augmented reality.

Syndication

Once the data is filtered, the data is to be driven out to the web. Additional filtering may occur at this point. Syndication can be achieved in various ways.

Platform Level

This is being done at the moment but there are still many links that can be made. E.g. you can link up your twitter account to output facebook feed. The future will be more highly connected feed wise.

Widgets

We see simple widgets that give real time feeds. Twitter widgets are fairly exciting to watch and add a bit of spice to a site.

APIs

Apis are another great way for the data can be syndicated. The main example being the twitter firehose.

Applications

Applications like tweetdeck take the data back in to show to the user. It's a relatively immature space still.

Explicit Search

This is an active search through existing or future data. Good examples are scoopler.com and search.twitter.com

Implicit search

The search method is built into the platform or application layer as a passive filter. E.g. creating a group inside tweetdeck is a specific implicit search.

Push/pull search

Another method to search the real time web is to ask a question and have it answered for you when the answer comes up. Aadvark is a good example of this push type search where the data is generated specifically for the request. Pull search doesn't have to generate any more data, it just searches through the current data.

Monetization

Across the range of levels (data, filtering and syndication) will we see advertising, subscriptions and micropayments models being applied to all sections of the real time web.

Modifiers

The most interesting modifier to me is when the loop is set to be automated. E.g. having your GPS location fired out in real time. Or what one is up to being made public in real time and in an automatic fashion.

Verticals

Another way to cut this market is to be specific in a vertical. In many cases its highly important to do this. Focus can be on news, pictures, video, games or social graph.

Conclusion and Cycle Time

A major point is the cycle time through the system is a measure of the 'real timeness' of the system. The faster the data can be entered and syndicated out to the appropriate sources the more real time the system is. Once the speed goes below a couple of minutes - it becomes real time. One the cycle time goes below a few milliseconds it reaches a new milestone of being below the reaction speed of a human - this is truly real time. Another important point is the reactions from syndication go out to cause new data being created resulting in phenomena like hashtags, RTs and news hype - this is a type of real time feeback effect. As we see this cycle time fall for other systems there are new and interesting phenomena that will follow. E.g. a networking event running with an eye-fi camera setup to twitpic.com or facebook causes an effect on the a networking event. There are hundreds of new opportunities in this area.

Take the test: Are you going to get funding in a recession?

2009-07-13T06:43:00.011+01:00

Many startups that have talked to me are looking for funding right now. X% of them are not going to get it - don't be that startup. Take the test and tally how many yeses you get for the questionnaire.

Idea

Solving a real world problem - are you solving a real world problem for a sizable market?

Do you have domain expertise in this market? Could you learn it fast?

Team fit - does your team fit your problem space?

Technology requirements - does your team have the tech requirements to solve the problem?

Can you launch in a couple of months?

Does your company require a sensible amount of capital to get moving?

Does your startup scale well? E.g. can you build a positive network effect as your grow.

Market Characteristics

Large Market - is the real market that you are operating in at least a $bn market?

Growth Market - is your market growing fast?

Sustainable market - is your market a long term market that is here to stay for at least 5 years?

In line with trends - is your business in line with where you think the market is going?

Revenue

Do you have clear monetization strategies that makes 'back of the envelope' sense?

Can you make money within 1 year?

Can you clearly monetize your user base?

Can you cite other analogous companies making money in the space?

Growth

Do you have innovative distribution strategies (i.e. not PR)?

Do you have alternative distribution strategies if your main one fails?

Are people using your product?

Do you have users coming back for more and telling their friends?

Is your growth exploding?

Long term viability

Can you build barriers to entry in your market?

Is it a market you want to spent a significant time in (on a personal level)?

Are there no major legal risks that might take out your startup?

Team

Are you really in this for the long term?

Is this your project that you are willing to do what ever it takes to make it work?

Have you done a startup before?

Have you touched money before?

Do you have strong programmers on the team? Could you recruit strong programmers?

Do you want to build a large company?

Are you willing to relocate?

Execution

Do you have analytics based approach to product decisions?

Do you launch first, ask questions later?

Do you keep improving the product?

Do you dream at night about your startup?

Do you tell everyone you know about your startup?

Are you working 6-7 days a week?

Pitch

Is your deck interesting?

Is your deck 10-15 slides?

Does your deck answer the above questions and prove them out a bit?

Is your deck clear to understand and using the correct business wording?

Is your valuation inside the normal market range for your offering?

Investors

Do you have contact to investors?

Are investors keen on your business?

Do you understand term sheets?

Have you got a professional, decent round lawyer?

Peer group

Do other good entrepreneurs like your startup?

Do your friends like your startup?

Does your granny like your startup?

Are good entrepreneurs willing to introduce you to their investors?

Does the media like your business?

Does the blog/tweet sphere talk about your business?

0-10: Deadpool

11-24: Spend some time asking yourself, how you can change your startup to have more yeses.

25-34: You're going to have to work hard for your funding.

35-44: You should get funding from Tier B investors.

45 - 51: Tier A VC funds will chase you down.

Mapping Out Your Web Startup

2009-05-31T05:28:00.034+01:00

[Click on the image to expand]

Intro

Modeling startups is interesting, especially for entrepreneurs, once you get all the elements of your site down onto a map, you can start seeing the interconnections, new opportunities, strategies and optimizations. I recommend doing this for your site on a large whiteboard.

Building on Dave McLure's article from almost 1 year ago, I have gone ahead and added in an extended viral engine view, more revenue options, retention methods and customer acquisition strategies. Thanks to Immad Akhund my co founder at Heyzap.com for adding in his insights into the model and James Smith.

The Model

The model doesn't pretend to be the only way to look at the system. Depending on your definitions and view point, boundaries can move as can the interconnections. Furthermore, the elements in the model are not a complete list. I'm sure there are better ways to look at this system. It's a 2D view on a complex interlinked system.

Focus

An important point to note is that there are many options present that you may select within each section of the model. E.g. an SEO strategy will just not work for certain keyword areas that you may be trying to win or SEM may not have a positive ROI for your kind of site. Each strategy has a time and a place. Start with a few and get them right. Depending on your product, you should focus your effort on different areas.

Acquisition Engine

You have to get users into your site. These are the classic methods. Many different methods here and channels to explore. Bear in mind what methods are efficient use of your resources, you can't and shouldn't pick them all. You will also need a specific seeding strategy for when you launch, which I should go over in a future post.

Core Product

The users have to interact with something. This could be focused around a website, app (or widget) or infrastructure play. This could also be a combination of these elements. This core product can be distributed into the acquisition, viral and revenue engine so that the boundaries become very blurry.

Viral Engine

You want to greatly accelerate the user acquisition process. You need a viral engine. I have split this into Method and Channels. Methods constitute specific driving forces behind the viral transfer. Channels are the specific channel by which the method occurs. Not all methods and channels are compatible - bear that in mind. The are specific motivations and corresponding incentivizations that lay behind the methods, which I won't go into now. This is not an exhaustive list.

Retention Methods

I have kept this section brief. Once you have users coming into your system you want them to keep coming back.

Revenue Engine

There are two main groups inside here. Trade Methods and Trade Objects. Trade Methods are the method by which the trade object is traded. The trade object is the actual value representation your are trading. E.g. Amazon EC2 trade method is the utility model and they trade bandwidth/storage, ebay is a commission basis (paypal) and a market place which trades mostly real goods (some virtual) but it also has a subscription model upgrade for pro accounts. Wikipedia has its donations. Compete has its freemium to access data but they also license data, pogo.com has its subscriptions to access content, google adwords/adsense is kind of a utility model. Oracle licenses. You can stack combinations of monetization strategies.

Funnels

Each area has it own funnel by which users fall out along the specific processes they have to go through. E.g. a user is on the point of buying something on Amazon - they have to go through 5 screens to get to the end and there is loss of users during this process. Every funnel section has its own specific complex mechanics and related game theory. Optimize the funnels that matter.

Interconnections

In a way, everything is interconnected. The special extra connections to get a mention are the fact that the viral engine can affect the retention, also the viral engine affects the revenue engine is certain products. The retention model also affects the revenue engine.

Things left off the map

You also have a cost engine to go with this. Don't forget to model this as it is affected by the revenue engine, acquisition engine, retention methods and sometimes even the viral engine.

Summary

Remember, this is only a model and a view of the situation. This should help you navigate your product structure and come up with new strategies and ideas. Good luck and leave some comments so I can improve the model for all the entrepreneurs out there.

Windows Vista, ActionScript 3 and Flash 10 Debugging – how to output a trace.

2009-01-24T23:37:00.012Z

In order to debug a ActionScript 3 program in Flash CS4, when you are working with your .swf inside a webpage rather than inside Flash CS4 you need to output trace and errors messsages to a logfile. This is not included in Flash CS4 meaning that if you are trying to make anything more complex or more integrated into a webpage you are programming in the dark.

At the time – I couldn’t find any Vista and Flash 10 specific documentation/blogs posts on this, hence the write up.

1. Create mm.cfg file with the following inside the file:

“ErrorReportingEnable=1 TraceOutputFileEnable=1 TraceOutputFileName=JudeGomila-PC:Users:Jude Gomila:Desktop:flashLog.txt MaxWarnings=50”

2. Replace “JudeGomila-PC” with your “Computer name”. Replace ‘Jude Gomila” with your Vista “Username”

Don’t include the quotes.

3. Save the file into c:\users\YOURUSERNAMEHERE

4. Right click on Computer (what used to be ‘my computer) in explorer.

5. Goto to properties, then “Advanced System Settings”

6. Click on “environmental variables”

7. Add a new variable to your user variables. Variable = HOMEDRIVE, value = c:

8. Add another new variable to your user variable Variable = HOMEPATH, value = %USERPROFILE%

9. For step 8 – remember to leave in the “%” symbols.

10. Click ‘ok’, the click ‘ok’

11. Run your .swf file from Adobe flash CS4 or whatever your using

12. Now if you have the latest flash version 10. Goto the directory C:\Users\YOURUSERNAME\AppData\Roaming\Macromedia\Flash Player\Logs

13. You should now find the log file in this directory called flashlog.txt

14. Restart you firefox.

15. Now output this flashlog.txt to a tracing program. Your ready to go.

For Mac users, Windows XP, Linux see the following links:

http://www.digitalflipbook.com/archives/2005/07/trace_from_the.php
http://broadcast.artificialcolors.com/index.php?m=20040401
http://livedocs.adobe.com/flex/15/flex_docs_en/wwhelp/wwhimpl/common/html/wwhelp.htm?context=Flex_Documentation&file=00000794.htm

Godaddyrefund.me

2008-07-23T03:27:00.003+01:00

Godaddy's Landrush Screw Up

So I woke up at 7:30AM to start bidding @ 8AM on .ME domains like everyone else did when the public domain land rush opened last week.

You can imagine I had a list of verbs, unusual urls and cool .me ending words and hoped for the 1000x returns that I wanted to make on the URLS.

So this is what happened:

8AM - I'm ready to start buying. The website is acting real slooooooowwwww.

It takes 45 mins of cart loading time to get my first batch through!!!! It was so slow it was unbelievable. During this time URLs were going in and out of 'unavailable' status as if godaddy had no idea as to what was going on.

8:45AM woah my first batch had gone through of premium URLs. Confirmations come through. Money removed from my bank account.

8:55 AM I got another batch through and confirmations come through to my email.

I continue to do this until around 10AM and I had topped my budget.

Later that day I get emails coming through saying that the URLs had been taken. All URLs had been rejected. How sad. Luckily I had pooled resources with a friend and we managed to get 1 premium together as a team.

So techcrunch then do their post on the matter and godaddy sent out an email saying we're all going to get a refund within 24 - 48 hours plus 5 - 7 days bank processing time. Jokers.

So now some of the refunds have come through. Luckily for me I made some money off the currency move in the mean time between spend in UKP to USD and refund in USD to UKP - it was minimal though.

Godaddy's Prebid Screw Up

So I bid on some domains to get into the private bidding process earlier this year. A similar experience was faced but everyone kept quiet to reduce the competition for domains at the time. Godaddy had also gone through the same process of taking our money then having to refund us later. However, some sources believe that godaddy employees had been hot picking off the best URLs for themselves. All the evidence pointed to this.

More interestingly they also issued login IDs for each individual URL auction. So we had tons of Usernames to use. We had to reset the passwords then change our passwords in a 'ballsed up' long winded process. They then, due to complains, sent out a new process where by our bids were consolidated into one login ID. If only they were using clickpass.

Godaddy Bid Mechanics

Unfortunately, because my bids are coming up soon I can't explain how the mechanics of the bidding work fully. From the way the system is setup though. I can tell various pieces of useful information about the bid (e.g. predicted end price, best time to bid, bid strategy, max bid price I should bid, predicted number of bids). It's going to be exciting knowing this information. I am basically hoping to arbitrage between the privateness of the private godaddy auction (imperfect market) (e.g. imperfect buying) vs. the open market of sedo (near perfect market). So thats the theory. If you want to supply capital and be part of this - email me. I'll tell you how it goes later....in the mean time I'm going to relax.me

Mapping Processes for Startups: Monetization

2008-07-17T02:08:00.034+01:00

I'm a big fan of mapping out options for decisions that you have as a startup.

Using a google document spreadsheet we can start to do some basic analysis on various decisions or choices that a startup may face.

This post will attempt to describe some aspects of how to look into selecting a monetization strategy for your website. Sometimes its obvious how to monetize a technology and in many cases its not.

So here is the process:

1. Firstly brainstorm the monetization methods that you may be able to use - at this point don't kill any ideas. A place to start with this is to think in these terms:

Advertising: Using advertising to generate revenue. E.g. CPC (selling traffic), CPA/affiliate sales (selling action), CPM (selling brand exposure) or a combination of methods.
Subscription: Using a subscription model (freemium/premium) (selling service/access/data)
PAYG: Pay as you go. Using some kind of pay per use model (selling a service/access/data)
Non advertising commission: Commission based method. E.g. Paypal 3.5% cut of transaction (selling a service/access)
Direct: Selling something directly whether virtual or real. (selling a product)
Donations: Allow a community donation. (selling vanity/fear/pride/respect/vision)
New Methods: Monetizing in a new ways (selling site engagement/interaction?, selling privacy?, selling identity?, selling social connectivity? )
Combos: Combinations of the above. I.e. multiple revenue streams. [Useful for experimenting and gathering real data and useful when in growth phase and diversifying in search of larger profits).

2. Now take these specific 'monetization methods' that you have generated and analyse them using the following fields (using the spreadsheet) filling out the fields with low, medium, high where relevant:

Description- Write a brief description of the monetization method
Technology required - What kind of technology is required to achieve this. Do you have these skills in your team? Can you get them in?
Product orientation changes - How much do we have to change your 'web product' by in order to make the monetization method work? Do we need new features on our site/widget/platform/technology/etc?
Critical mass required - Do we need to have a critical mass of users in order to get this monetization method to work? Does the method scale better as we get more users. E.g. a market place like ebay. Or does this method scale flatly e.g. no market place.
Time required for implementation - How long will this method take to implement in terms of company time?
Ease of implementation - How easy (excluding the provision of time) is it to make this method?
Consumer annoyance factor - Do we impair the customer experience by this method and by how much? Banner ads all over the place is one extreme example here. E.g. if twitter were to try to monetize and starting adding ads to feeds or your site - people would complain.
Partner annoyance factor - if we are working with a partner/s do we annoy our partner with our monetization method. If so, by how much?
Exposure - How large is the exposure of this method. E.g. a banner on the front page affects all your users. V.s. Freemuim models offer more exposure to the power users of the site. For advertising methods this can be quantified in terms of pageviews, uniques etc. You want to be high but targeted correctly.
CPC/CPA/CPM revenue potential - this is more advertising specific but try to put some predictions down so you can compare monetization methods.
Contextualisation rating - Is this monetization method contextualizable and to what degree. E.g. there is no point making a freemium model on a site like moneysavingexpert.com as the users are there to learn about saving money. There use affiliate cuts instead. On the other side of the coin Snaptalent are doing great stuff with facebook ads.
Adverse effects on the distribution/growth of your site/widget/etc - a subscription model won't work well on a widget because it would probably kill the distribution effect of the widget. E.g. Subscription model is bad for sites that rely on a market place to grow. Ebay do this now that they have their market but only on the powerusers. E.g. it wouldn't make sense for Zilok to charge a subscription while they are in their growth phase. Much better to use a percentage cut of the sale.

3. Now that you understand a bit more about your options, now try to map the value proposition that your site/widget/app/etc has; to the monetization route that you think are candidates. For example:

If your site makes a process easier then a clear monetization method candidates would subscription, advertising, PAYG.
If you sell direct sell product that is innovative to the market (then you can charge directly for it).

Other thoughts:

Make your monetization method work for you in a competitive sense
Disrupt your competition and create competitive advantage by using a different monetization method than what is normally used in that industry.
If you are going for multiple monetization methods, you may want to check the compatibility between them and such for the best group effect on revenue/the other factors.

Which Twitter Personality Type Are You?

2008-05-23T14:43:00.011+01:00

This study is based on real life twitter profile observations.

‘the newbie’ – You’ve just joined. You have no friends. Move onto ‘social climber’ mode. But if you’re popular already on facebook, you can afford to sit back, relax. Become ‘the arrogant one’ – your days as a newbie are numbered.

‘the social climber’ – Tons of following, not so many followers. You’re hoping that some twitwhores will connect back to you. Keep going – you’ll make it as a ‘web celebrity’ some day!

‘the arrogant one’ – Let’s face it – you are arrogant. Your ratio of followers to following is high but your absolute number of followers + followings are low to medium. You may also be classified as ‘lazy’. I would at this point throw some examples in but I don’t want to offend anyone @Dwane.

‘the lazy one’ – [ironic lack of description].

‘the bore’ – You’re naturally accumulating people that you are following but nobody wants to follow you. I’m sorry, you will just have to try harder…

‘the femme fatale’ – So you’re female, hot and you‘ve got this strange following of geeks. Lots of followers, less following. Exploit this niche while it lasts baby.

‘the blogger’ – Tons of followers and you seem to be following quite a few as well. You are balanced and doing well. You add real value to the internet and adsense – thanks for that.

‘the entrepreneur’ - Whatever your intentions, twitter may help your startup and business opportunities. Use it and love it.

‘the web celebrity’ – Well done, you’ve made it to the higher echelons of net society. You have the highest levels of followers and you tend to follow lots of other people to help you maintain that position. Now its time to sell your twitter profile on ebay and use it for advertising products on each tweet.