MARKET GEOMETRY

Anika Therapeutics, ANIK

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 19:11:17 -0500

Weekend + SP 1290

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 08:36:18 -0500

Ah, finally weekend.

QQQQ, my thoughts are that rest of the july we don´t move much anymore with progressive direction, market is working reactionary wave 4 which very likely going to take more complex method instead something very simple like a-b-c-. I think this is better time for intratraders, scalpers, bollinger band boys etc. while we consolidate (zigzag) and not making so big movements anymore, but end of the day not much progress - just shaking. May I add that certainly I would not buy my idea also that we stay here, while bigger impulses still keeps velocity downside, upside "risk" is also very limited, but at least it´s exist.

Beginning of August or during the August I expect this reactionary wave to be finished for 47 - 47.50 area, so see in here that I wait one another higher high blow-out nor matter what happens during the end of july.

Then we can take the rest down and finish this bear market and we´ll see also how far we go, bear in mind that in theory all EW chartist can make mistake in here and there´s still possibility wave3 could extend which would push us much more lower as no-one expected, when the next impulse wave starts - there´s even possibility it could be first impulse wave 3 down. I don´t think this is the issue but when we will reach end of this reactionray wave market knows this possibility and wave 5 can come pretty powerfull, however, consolidation between stocks will be propably seen now on and good times longer timeframe pickers, there will be a lot of experienced fundamendal buyers out there now and oscillators has confirmed turnaround allready - meaning real investors and many quarter swingers who prefer to buy blood on the street acts now.

Actually this dowside was not so bad after all when looking back now, it´s was very much financial stock related - I expected it to be much more violent for tech stocks also

To express this simple way, QQQQ turned from 50 % fib cycle retracement as 44 $ and that´s our bottom now, which should keep until wave 4 is fully done & finished.

I just figured out also I missed very simple and good buying place when not taking any financial stock longs, it´s certainly most shorted area and new SEC rulez started cover panic and I am envy to those percents they go, UBS investment bank alone from 21 to 27 $ in a just few days and I even charted it just month ago.....well, one guy cannot run to each corner....

Minium Target for SPX 1290 for wave 4.

Nokia

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 09:29:37 -0500

Increasing my target to 17-19 euros area and I believe for long term investors buyzone was placed in here. The move I wanted to see after 17 euros is reached, if it´s able to breake, even with 10 cents, this opens path much higher. My TargetPrice for 2009 is 27 euros, but for next multimonths I believe Nokia stays between 17-19 euros. Still long with it.

Another update: One small failure in here at so far and that´s xilinx, executed it. Also going to lock Altera profits today and many other´s also, 2 mad rally days is just enough for me when indexes are working only with reactionary waves. Nasdaq is allready up 25 points and dow over hundred, if you add for that yesterday´s rally we should have at least one A wave in here and I don´t need calculator to understand it. I called market temporary to come and turn with qqqq 44 and it came 43.50, bouth deepest bottoms market offered and called corrective reactionary wave to go 47. Today it went 45.78.

I prefer to left some room as many propably have noticed. Still believe also that qqqq 47 or close will be reached but I don´t want to be there when and if it will reached, but better be sure, besides my stocks setups allready blowed up between 10-30 %, all of them besides xilinx and intel came a bit shy.

Going to waiting mode or & and to hunt either new invididual stock setups or new place to entry short market, but I don´t believe it´s going to happen today or tomorrow either. Market propaply takes one small b wave down and blows up another C wave, but that´s only positive scenario and it would also end this reactionary wave rally.

The fact is that even with individual stocks upside impulses as wave one up to wave 2 down can allmost overlap wave one meaning that they can take allmost double bottom, nor matter is there impulse wave 3 progress behind of them, but I´ll keep TSL & SOLF and I am ready to expect situation if they will take wave 2 down now-on, just sold call side options of them.

No reason propably to worry (yet), I am just allways early birth, but indexes have still long way to go down.

Nokia

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 18:12:14 -0500

16.7 - 2008 I need to change my opinion in here a bit, I still think this is a bit more risky long entry as Altera, Intel, Adobe, Cisco, Xilinx, KlacTencor, Autodesk or any other similiar semi & software stocks bottom I am bullish with, but there´s possibility that Nokia could start new impulse wave from here, chart is not updated as stock has not moved much since this post, earnings release will be thursday from europe while US still sleeping. If this fails, the yellow linear line will be very likely met to put bottom for nokia, but I believe now nokia chart doing exactly the same as all the other´s (meaning stocks mentioned). My first upside target is now 17 euros, so it´s as concervative as Intel target. More interesting as my target price is how the price perform, if I recognice any impulse method, I might keep this stock a bit longer.

If I recognice only 3 method upside progress (a-b-c) after earnings I call it just another B wave meaning nokia multiyears chart is working with complex sideways, even double or triple tree pattern. Either the case is, I am slightly bullish with it now and expect upside reaction & behaviour. This will be fast over the earnings trade, perhaps just a few days or overnight, even it would go much higher I´ll propably roll my positions back to US, I am not very interested to follow multiple timeframe markets, but long with it allready as mentioned before, let´s call it rainy summer trade. 78.6% fibonacci retracement sounds for me just a bit too bearish view at this stage to call in.

In percentage terms, I would say 70% chance for corrective B upwave and 30% chance for new upside impulse wave. Bearish scenario is marked to the chart, but my bullish view is suggest now a-b-c corrective letters down where last c wave allready is broken to fully impulse meaning end of it.

Additionally no need for chart, but another SOX stock, Xilinx (XLNX) is similiar case as Altera was, it´s reporting on thursday also and buy zone was today - none of the plusside cannot be bought anymore, when index working only reactionary wave these stock need to be bought only from ultimate intra bottom and still if being right capital gain can be come very sligt and tiny one.

28.6 - 2008 Reactionary B wave rally watch case. If it sells 21-22.50 $ area, buy it.

Altera

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:05:33 -0500

Bought it at 18.68 $. (I like .681 prices....). Actually it was down only -1.7% but fair enough for me to fulfill C.

Novellus, Xiling, Adobe, Autodesk, Intel, Klac............sox & smh just won´t go down together with market, either we stay in here or we go up. I think this is pretty good place to collect this business area for longer term portofolio, even financial stocks would bail out or go to the zero.

Altera

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 09:17:45 -0500

15.7-2008 It´s a bit freaknomics to work for a while opposite as market is heading down, but at so far my I don´t have problems with Sox & Shm stocks, but indeed these upmovements are very slow and difficult to progress, but I don´t see any other method if you bored for shorting.

Altera is going to report tonight and together with other big sox stocks setup seems something similiar, but note that these upmovements might come very tiny one´s. If Altera will plunge today 18-19 area before earnings, I might go long with it. KLAC is another.

Trinasolar is my biggest long position and heading up, no matter what does it do at daily basis.

Bullish

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 08:16:26 -0500

I added Nokia (NOK) to my bullish position today, from european market - going long with this also over earnings now.

Intel, Nokia, Adobe, Autodesk, Apple and Cisco, Agilent are at so far biggest tech stocks I am very bullish with from here. It might be klac, lrcx, ffiv and other similiar Sox stocks have same EW setup now, but I haven´t worked much recently since weekend was decent wheather.

Propably will do some EW work at least with FFIV soon. Moreover, my recent charts below including TrinaSolar, Cytokinetics should start working from here. Many market participants seems to looking for Vix panic low over 30 for monday, but I seriously believe now that last week deepest plunges were right place to buy one corrective snap-back rally which is coming up, at least with individual stocks as examples mentioned.

If this market will plunge hard again on monday, I will propably just look to take more Sox & Smh related long positions.

DUG chart is for me very bullish now, meaning bearish view for Oil and I do expect eurodollar to take impulse wave 3 soon opposite direction meaning strong US dollar and weaker Euro. There´s possibility next eurodollar movement will be 1300 pips to the 1.47 level - this gives a bit distance, so I don´t care much anymore what does it do between 1.60 and 1.62 if it reach this high levels. The fact that Oil reacher higher high last week didn´t change individual oil stocks technicals anymore, they´re falling now.

However, I don´t buy any rally from here either and I do believe last week deepest plunges were right time to go in for this reactionary wave (if it comes now) but as mentioned earlier SOX and some special Software stocks have completely different EW setup as overall SP500 index or Dow does and still I do expect them to see much lower lows. Still keeping QQQQ 47, perhaps 47.50 as temporary target.

SolarFun

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:13:29 -0500

14.7 - 2008 SolarFun with Bullish Fun pattern. Inverted HS won´t come much better that this.

QQQQ 47

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 07:53:52 -0500

11.8 - 2008 A few additional words. Wensday market looked a bit too much of sell off for me. One evidence was definetely Intel closing below 20 $. Intel technical road is 20-22.50 $ and I believe it´s going to be found upper channel when earnings news comes.

Definetely this is not best time to be in the market I suggest to anyone want to made very secure and powerfull movements to skip this completely including complete market and go the beach (if you have warmer wheather as we do on outside) - but I believe cubes working opposite of maintrend now to reach 47 as corrective letters, note that it should be only reactionary movement, which is completely opposite of maintrend meaning hard minus days can be easily seen on the road there.

Once it´s reached, impulse down should follow and new lower lows found. However, it looks for me many individual big tech´s and Sox stocks are actually just parking in here since last 2 monts and some of them have minor impulse mode to the opposite direction like my Adobe and Autodesk, but many other´s also including Intel. I still believe big QQQQ tech´s are much stronger as overall market condition and things will stay this way also. There´s some exceptions like NVDA.

I believe first non extended minor wave 3 down was finished early of the week or wensday and certainly it can extend and should, plus missing at least wave 5 completely - just not yet - small correction to the upside where these upside impulse mode tech´s very likely going to reach their shortterm range upper channel, minium. This is very different if compared to the blueships, it seems for me cubes is one wave ahead of the other basic index like SP500. When we are going to reach 47 or close, I am also planning to re-short market.

This is bit art and playing with fire also, when doing this small reactionary waves you cannot buy any plus side reactions, you need to pick up your stock from the very ultimate bottom from the sell-offs. I believe this Intel example is one of the best to describe it - there´s many other sox stocks doing exactly the same now. Like Intel, now it´s up again over +4%. This is business area I watched and chart mostly, everything else including oil, gold etc. are just second hand for me.

Additionally I would like to add that if EW would be this easy as it has been since spring 2008 again when it surfed inside to the new impulse wave, everyone in this universum would be very rich and famous to trade EW, market just is not work like that and EW not work like that simple either.

After something is working too well and for too far, something is going to get wrong very soon and with this I mean possibility of more complex mode of one wave. In elliott wave, for example most often one the waves, either wave 2 or wave 4 will take very complex mode. If you want to be sure, I would say lock your shorting profits or part of them here and let the rest go, this might come a steps more difficult now-on.

Temporary bottom

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 08:07:32 -0500

Market trades down now (again), but as mentioned before, I am start to looking now tradable bottom more seriously and believe QQQQ 44 is temporary bottom, quick and short movement to the upside, maximum 4-6 weeks. Looking long cases only from sox / smh related stocks. Could be that market consolidate another week also before any actual progress happens, but I am buying mode now.

Agilent Technologies

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Tue, 08 Jul 2008 08:37:58 -0500

8.8 - 2008 Well, it still seems tech´s are much more bullish as overall market condititon.

I do expect up waves from here for Agilent also. Btw. I noticed that trinasolar came mad yesterday, in intraview it it took subminuette wave 1 up (+12%) and later on the afternoon wave 2 down ending (+1,5%), finally ending day +5% after gracy trading session. I am even more sure now setup was correct and TrinaSolar it´s under multiple wave 3 upside progress. If you´re not comfortable with world of high beta that´s not your stock, I don´t personally care much those smaller intratraders wave raves, propably not going to sell that stock anymore for multimonths.

Cytokinitecs

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 07:55:26 -0500

9.8 - 2008 Dude, finally plus day, I think this market has been work over week now to make temporary bottom, uh, that minor bear wave just didn´t give much chance until today actual reaction came. Many propably have a lot of stocks to watch in here as earnings rolling in, but may I take one small stock from my earlier setup to the spotlight again. It´s 4 $ now. I might come as extremely lazy during this earnings season, certainly not going to code during july and certainly not going to spend much time inside either. Actually I hardly check market opening and closing points if either, but I am bullish with many individual tech´s over earnings. Those other similar setup & charts posted quote same time ie. PBY, SNS etc. propably turned now also for next up wave, but there´s reason to be carefull, my QQQQ count suggest next downwave will be actually 3/3 impulse wave, meaning extreme deap bluesea plunge, however this recovery might takes even several weeks, perhaps July ??? to progress and certainly I want to open shorts also again, but higher.

29.6 - 2008 Hmmmm, it seems my nasdaq wave machine founded during the night pretty lot of rally papers, I wonder if this market is temporary bottoming in here also, QQQQ 44 is fib number. Either way, my maintrend view stays down, but as mentioned earlier we might take some pause and even temporary upwave on next week - either way, should not be problem for shorts either, this is still bearmarket, nor matter where we go.

Btw. something is happening with SMA-50, a real lot of stocks sleeps just above of it, this one too - should be decent platform and I have no problem at all to buy these small diagonal bottoms for longer hold from here, my favorite patterns one´s as many know allready. I think I might have a few real impulse 3 starters more for you to consider, but I need to do some additional check first, I will post them on sunday evening or sunday night.

Shortside view with Energy + Oil + ETF, Materials, Agri´s, Energy, Drilling, OIH, USO + XTO Energy, XES, XLE, DIG, DUG

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 08:08:19 -0500

OIL Business

Peak Oil Price, major size bear / correction ahead, bearish technical view....

Materials, Oil, Energy, Mining...

Energy Sector + Oil&Gas ETF, XES etc...
Leveraged ETF for OIL...

SPDR Oil & Energy>

8.8 - 2008

I have no reason to "brass" with any of my charts, but as mentioned earlier I tend to be 60-70 days ahead of the market when coming down with very big patterns from far away. While most market participants focus only for 60 minute or even much shorter movements I think completely opposite, you allways have to have major trend with you & recognice possible orthodox points.

Now I am actually going brass mode, take a look them now or tomorrow or november 2008 or january 2009......Oil went a bit further, but these patterns comes true now and big waves boys. Charts are not updated since first post and real "E" wave school and lessons can be taken here to see real Antenna Orthodox Tops.

27.4-2008

I really don´t have much to add these charts by words and charts don´t need words if you know how to read them you also know what to expect.

I spreaded technique and added also some new approach, for example 2 expanding diagonal bearish charts which seems to give really powerfull "E" before correction starts to progress and future will learn to use even more diagonal techniques. Halliburton is one seems to have also much bigger troubles ahead for many years to come. This setup terminates and explains also for me one of my most weird JOYG mining equipment machine chart. I had been wondering months how odd it´s been while stock price getting just pushed to the upside. Still expecting euro-dollar to make a-b-c / 2 correction for downside, perhaps maximum at 1.5700 - 1.5800, but soon it should (I hope) will progress reversal impulse meaning strenghening US dollar and weakening Euro, in that case then these´s charts & stocks are under troubles from longside view. 89 $ for Oil, 1.5000 - 1,5200 for EuroDollar are my first targets, possibly expecting later to see oil at 78$. HES, PAAS, MOS, POT I do expect to suffer seriously also, as well as many agriculture stocks. Solar stocks, I don´t know, haven´t look them and not interested so much about those volatility weapons, they might be winners also.

When you consider those expanding triangles, see what elliott wave has said about this "E" wave which ends this triangle>

"E" waves — "E" waves in triangles appear to most market observers to be the dramatic kickoff of a new downtrend after a top has been built. They almost always are accompanied by strongly supportive news. That, in conjunction with the tendency of "E" waves to stage a false breakdown through the triangle boundary line, intensifies the bearish conviction of market participants at precisely the time that they should be preparing for a substantial move in the opposite direction. Thus, "E" waves, being ending waves, are attended by a psychology as emotional as that of fifth waves

Here´s a few charts I made from Oil & Gas area, have a good sunday.

Canadian Natural Resources, CNQ

http://www.cnrl.com/

USO - United States Oil Fund

http://www.unitedstatesoilfund.com/

XLE

XTO Energy

http://www.xtoenergy.com

Superior Energy

http://www.superiorenergy.com/

StoneEnergy

http://www.stoneenergy.com/

Santos

http://www.santos.com/

PetroChina

http://www.petrochina.com.cn/ptr/

Mariner Energy

http://www.mariner-energy.com/

Halliburton

http://www.halliburton.com/

Gulfmark Offshore, GLF

http://www.gulfmark.com/

Forest Oil

http://www.forestoil.com/

Ensco

http://www.enscous.com/

Delta Petroleum

http://www.deltapetro.com/

ClaytonWilliams, CWEI

http://www.claytonwilliams.com/

ChesaPeak Energy
(NatGas Company)

http://www.chk.com/

Bill Barrett, BBG

http://www.billbarrettcorp.com/

Berry Petroleum, BRY

http://www.bry.com/

Atwood Oceanics, ATW

http://www.atwd.com/

Atlas America
(NatGas + Oil Drilling Company)

http://www.atlasamerica.com

Arena Resources

http://www.arenaresourcesinc.com/

Anadarko Petroleum, APC

http://www.anadarko.com/

March-2008 posted Oil Charts>

Exxon Mobile>

XTO (ETF)>

OIH (Oil ETF)>

Murphy OIL>

TrinaSolar

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sat, 05 Jul 2008 17:43:32 -0500

6.7 - 2008 Ouh, well, a quick scan for saturday night. I think I am going to buy TrinaSolar from here also for a bit longer swing. Not for the reason most traders watch these just because of high beat & big incomes, but for my own reasons, I don´t see any impulse behaviour for downside, just corrective mode and if I am right, right time and place for entry is right now and right here, besides I made that last bullish diagonal also from the breake. 27 $ is good gann number and fib relations seems to fit for ending wave 2.

That yellow wave 2 should be located below diagonal (sorry, manual entry mistake), after it took first impulse up as wave 1 and now down allmost previous bottom, wave 2 can easily allmost achieve wave 1 starting point and previous impulse since emission gives us support from there.

If this wave setup is correct, next would be very big impulse wave 3 to the upside, reasonable place to take entry and set stoploss perhaps for 25 $. If this pattern would fail, stock most likely will come 21 $. This might be once in the lifetime chance to get in for solarstock and personally I would not touch them anymore at any stage when they´re uprolling allready. In fact, I checked if any other solar stocks could confirm this and some might, for example JASO to mention one taking touch now from previous wave 2 bottom, but at the pattern site none of the other´s offering this decent pattern.

SP500 1262-1268

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Fri, 04 Jul 2008 05:47:30 -0500

My all shorts are covered now. I will open them again later, but I do start to expect temporay now reactionary impulse upside and most likely will take some more tech´s 2 of C´s in. If I don´t find any certain enough, I´ll add Adobe & Autodesk - very please they chart reaction during last 2 days since first buying.

Maintrend is still strongly down and only bear rally possible if any. I also believe that QQQQ 44 will give a pause even there´s some leg left to travell still before it´s met. We are inside of minor downside impulse, so this call can easily fail and week ending lower lows and I am certainly overall bearish.

Much more interesting issue is that Canada has FINALLY rolled over just a few days ago for decade and Coal + all mad commodoties FINALLY started to come down. Only CWEI from nasdaq is down now -10 % to mention one ending wave E extended impulses. Peak of commodites is propably very near or we even just rolled over. Take a look now HES, MOS, POT, XTO or any similiar chart and you will spot the same. This is the next area to take shorts and for a real loooooooooong time. I don´t think this is temporary behaviour, they oscillators had been falling from very far away and only first price reactions has been seen in here.

I should watch these week earlier, but I had been just coding so much. It seems pretty serious rollover and I believe during rest of 2008 real hedge-panic will be seen in here. Many market participants are at the longside with commodites here after years of bullmarket. One of the best folks in this indursty, Mr. Jimmy Cramer ex. co-partner of George Soros is also one master of timing with commodites and he mentioned allready that next bubble will be in this area and it´s pretty close allready.

However, may I also add that it would be very danger task to do, to try short very last island - those E wave patterns can easily blow off your shorts and just better to wait decent rollover to occure and it occured now, these offer so much and for so long. With this incident I must also reverse my gold & silver view, I don´t see them anymore as safety bunker from market down tunnel. This is very bad news for Canadian markets - even I don´t follow it much I believe it´s arsenal of coal indursty...

Mineral doesn´t concern most of us private persons, but for hedgefunds & funds, this is terrible incident and nightmare, that area has been last safety resort to park while stockmarket is coming down together with housing assetts and party is over now boys - it went too crowed.

You might get some correction´s from there now or not, but next months will propably give you only reactionary B waves. However, I think worse times not come before SP500 & QQQQ has found their bottoms, meaning C impulse wave down in that department. Also I do expect their volalitilty to come up very dramatically, there willl be temporary reversals or should I say "mineral raves" where market participants fights weekly after weeks some time before new direction is fully confirmed and most agressive smaller size rapid daytraders will hit the tape & join to that volatility so there will be liquid also.

I also looked closely today my UBS chart and it´s just normal impulse which is going to take extended mode sooner or later - so, if one prefer to avoid suicide, skip it and wait untill wave 5 fully progressed.

No mercy, nor place to hide for any money - pretty tought times!

For US peoble, happy 4th of july as independence day, we europeans steps out now and leave market solve the rest of of it´s downroll, I am still expecting very quick and short reactionary upwave in coming weeks and keep that Adobe & Autodesk position - but they might sleep without progressing until earnings news. Final target as QQQQ 37-38 remains, seriously not going buy mode before that happens and I´ll most likely open long shorts again for SKF (ultra inverse financial ETF) and for similiar inverse products if I´ll find this market higher enough.

You might remember that last winter US dollar against of euro took it´s first impulse down, meaning from 1.60 we came 1.55 level (stronger dollar, weaker euro), since then allmost nothing has happened between these paritet, only US dollar has been weaking by wave 2 progress around 1.58-.1.59 level.

Next minor wave will be impulse wave 3 and this also means dollar should start to get stronger from here, for this reason all metals and minerals should start weaking.

When this progress starts fully, minerals party is over and for a long time.

First plus side afternoon for "decades"

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 20:05:30 -0500

Wau, it seems fib relationships keeps working and market actually came up later, didn´t watch that - intra movements won´t interest me so much, I worked with some new math software.

I think temporary bottom was today. Actually I knew it´s coming during mid-week at some stage. What it actually then means, big trends are still strongly down and we might see strong plunges during july, bad news keeps still coming and individual stocks could plunge seriously, we just took a temporary pause now which might takes several weeks to progress.

Big tech´s from QQQQ starts to look attempting. That nokia chart is propably going to be lazy "google" case also because it´s euro price at 15 is support now also (much better tech stocks available in US - Nokia won´t interest me, actually I hate that stock, it´s never going anywhere when you take years of timeframe), but later during the autumn, it will crash to this lower 78.6% retracement.

So, this lazy "google behaviour" means it´s going up from there at least to the 17 euros, perhaps even 21 euros but for me it´s penny in the heaven comparing what these US software listed offering as real progressive impulses. This is what your get after A wave - the text I wrote during the last weekend, you might get that B up wave, but it´s most lazy diagonal you can get and required lot of time and still, there´s risk nokia would finish wave 5 in here which would be massive in percentage terms. Actually I decided I never post any wave A diagonals anymore, they lag, they are lazy, they are boring! No-one should never even found that that wave A can take some kind of diagonal approach, because it´s most passive wave you can take, but you´re still being right about main direction. If it would start upside steps with no corrective letters instead impulsive I can change my opinion - njah, I should not post that chart at all, because I don´t do hard-core work with it .

I think also that everyone can do amazing and real disaster mistakes during this earnings season because we still have minor impulse down, even when taking upside corrective letters, so I would be very passive to buy any rally and many individual stocks will plunge hard -but propably good time to close some shorts just to open them again later again a bit upper or if you have real long shorts, you can run with them directly against autumn. QQQQ 44.68 - good number, certainly there was 44.681 ? ;)

Can´t complain, I am fully leverage with ADSK & ADBE to get their EPS news, I hope I don´t have to cry. There´s propably much more specialist software and tech companies inside of same wave structure and yes, that Echelon Diagonal wave 2 finished now also - it´s a bit boring so many stocks take wave steps at the so same time - some time divergences between them would be much more fun.

To express this simple way, things will only get worse from here; macroeconomy, fundamendals, household econonomy and propably negative development in US will spread to the Europe also - who knows where else. We usually lag US index development from 6 to - 9 months. We started market rally also after 6 to 9 months you did in 2003.

No news won´t move markets, market has it´s completely nature own order to progress, only human is so simple enough to thing they can actually read from the news, estimate macroeconomy, cashflow or PE number how to make wiser investment decisions or market timing and some of them even sell this information and more amazing is that someone also buy those paper sheets estimates.

However, it might be that human thoughts, once again are considering to buy one bottom, only found out that it will also fail later - but who the heck can argue with any human´s, let´s follow them. As someone expressed in the marketplace, do exact the same as everyone else is going, just before of them, Indexes I´ll stay mainly bearish over this temp. recovery, going long with only with techs and I´ll stay hedged as gold long.

Let´s see now how this QQQQ progress from here, I will propably update some smaller fib counts before new week starts. I also noticed some financial stocks came out mad, like CIT - I charted it before lower when it was in wave 3 bottom position, but this wave down from there propably wasn´t wave 5 to finish it, instead it was extended wave 3, it could offer some sizable relief wave IV upside as drawed, but I don´t think I am going into very subprime or leveraged financial stocks, nor matter even they might give sizable percentage at daily basis if there´s shortcover rolling, if any I would consider more concervative investment bank chart like that UBS, which are not so deeply under troubles and which have more operations also outside of US.

SP 1269

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Tue, 01 Jul 2008 13:41:15 -0500

I bought Adobe and Autodesk (ADBE, ADSK) from here today, going over with both over their earnings also. Comfortable fibonacci numbers as 34 and 38 below of them.

No time to fill chart now, but as mentioned last time I will expect very small size wave 2 correction during coming summer market correction. My adobe EW work is somewhere lower if interested as well as Autodesk.

Adobe is making very tiny a-b-c correction, it could sell later 1 dollar lower at 38 $ to fullfill C of wave 2 - but I am not after pennies.

These both will propably be lazy to get upside now, as we do get only reactionary impulses upside with index if any, so, might require time - but I believe overall price performing will up upside now-on and I am hunting wave 1 of 3 with some individual techs as price reaction over earnings.

I would not have a problem to buy Intel now either and to star waiting multimonths 22.50 $ breake, but let´s take a look that case when we are closer of earnings release date - Intel propably won´t go over 22.78 $ before earnings.

Companie De Minas BuenaVentura

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Mon, 30 Jun 2008 10:39:33 -0500

30.6 - 2008 Going Latin America in NYSE stocks, there´s one Peru stock offering 50/200 cross more with Fibonacci 38.2 % retracement from taken wave 2 bottom, should mean impulse wave 3 up and at least wave 5 up. Sorry, I don´t have time now to fill and check waves, but decent for me enough.

Buying doji, Encore

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 21:58:10 -0500

30.6 -2008 Here´s another one, I believe is starting strong & completely new upside impulse 3 wave and this was bottom, for this stock, it was also ultimate bottom, next bull back will be only wave 4 so take a deep breath, there won´t be pause for a long time if this pattern really wave starts from here.

This is same setup I am waiting for PBY to be happen - well, how counts them, I have hundreds of these to select. Going to pick up this one, but not all them are ready yet to run, like that mercury computer somewhere lower still looks to miss a real big down wave. Btw. I start to like these simple moving average 50 and 200 days crosses with doji patterns, specially when I have pattern to confirm.

That selling power on friday for this stock was huge !

My next coding procedure will be scan out 3/3/3 only starters, so I should jump from these diagonals much further ahead where even more agressive setup will be building later on and diagonal is behind of us allready, for this reason I hope these bullish setups have nothing to do with an issue that stockmarket index is turning upside also, because I actually want to run opposite direction with individual stocks making different direction as stockmarket indexes, this would secure that my code really works not matter what wheather market have. However, I am afraid we are building temporay bottom soon, perhaps allready on next week because too many of these bullish setups appears from my scanner and I also noticed selling pressure for some bottoming stocks I had been watching was huge, not up 10,20 or 30% from normal day, they came abnormal. For instance my Monaco Coach Boomerang pattern saw that pressure on friday.

However, if any temporary reversal appears, it´s too early to call bottom, most stocks will take 78.2% fib out, if it´s not come now (july), then we will cry during earnings season, after it and autumn, but being selective it´s allways possibility to run both directions. Some tech´s are still strong, for example Intel & Adobe, they stays right where they are and had been multimonths and not participating this selling pressure. When earnings season rolls in, I am going to watch longsides via Technology.

Enjoy your week, thers at least 5-6 reasonable new stocks for you posted just in this weekend,
I´ll keep mass chartposting when working ;)

Masimo

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 20:07:58 -0500

30.6 - 2008 It´s sunday night a did a bit more programming today. I actually figure out today that cup & handle and head & shoulder pattern can appear at the same time, funny thing - I never thought it before.

Ok, to add extra technical evidences to confirm rally which this stock is going to take, I don´t think you can have anything anymore in one packet, we have everything placed in here with various different technology starting from traditional support line with those inverted HS + cup&handle patterns. There´s also SMA 50&200 cross occured just on friday and with huge buying volume and that RSI is running far ahead while price just solved fibonacci 34 $ but didn´t run yet.

Thee´s also 38.2 % fibonacci retracement below, which most often occures before impulse wave 3 rally, perhaps a bit too much candy for one kid during the same day.

Pepboys

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sun, 29 Jun 2008 18:57:16 -0500

30.6 - 2008 Ok, is about starting time to take a watching this case also again, stock is now approaching it´s pullback to reach 9 $ which is diagonal upper trend channel. It should stop there and if it does, you might have a handshake with much stonger impulse as previous one was. when it blowed out last ime from this pattern. It might consolidate there a few weeks, but pattern size should give it quite a big movement upside, I will most likely buy this also before it´´s Q. Failure case would be falling back inside in to the triangle. However,there´s not need necessary to go this "exact" work to be bottom fisher, each have own habits to work in market and perhaps one might want to see actual price & oscillators confirm first upsideroll, but this is the behavour what I wanted to see and mentioned last update and Echelong (ELON) is very similiar case now. Overall, I think tech companies are going to behave much better as dow or blueships during this minor wave 3 downside rally. Jabil Circuit was certainly one example.

22.6 - 2008 Hmmm, while I´ve been working in recent weeks and month, I think I have some great patterns in warehouse, even they are falling, but usually after taking at least some size of wave 4 to the upside - would not like to miss them on future.

I think this is one of them, after short rally stock most likely marked wave 4 top position and it´s still on the way lower, but I do expect it to stay inside of this pattern, just squeeze very low part of it, one might want to wait to see doji candle somwhere very end of this triangle at lower line sqeeqed bottom, but when triangle closing on future, this pattern should offer very massive upside rally. Jus some small fix for counts should be down my originall post (but still trendemous in percentage terms).

March 2008 marked wave 4 and consider this since then this stock has been working wave 5 down, so it´s progressing pretty far allready - however, it´s short now, but wave 3 should be behind allready, only wave 5 progressing so it´s far ahead of the market.

Note that chart is not updated and there´s possibility my original count was and is correctly placed regarding also for smaller waves, it trades much higher, at around 10 $ and if my count is correct it would next take bottom touch from upper wedge channel line to mark wave 2 there. Market risk-reward just is not very good to consider wave 2 bottom buying. Could be one stock to put alert list.

11.6 - 2008 Pebboys & Market Geometry.

Mercury Computer Systems

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:15:53 -0500

29.6 - 2008 Mercury Compupter Systems & Elliott Wave

Extreme Networks

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:12:13 -0500

29.6 - 2008 Extreme Networks & Elliott Wave (or ER...)

Cutera

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 23:07:33 -0500

28.6 - 2008 Cuteral & Elliott Wave.

Intertape Polymer

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sat, 28 Jun 2008 14:37:30 -0500

28.6 - 2008 Interape Polymer, IPT - Diagonal Break-Out.