>>>>>MARKET GEOMETRY<<<<<

Eur-Usd, Elliott Wave Count

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 08:18:17 PDT

11.8 - 2009, Saturday Evening Wonder,

We have lazy & complex corrective zigzag "b" upwave wave on the progress which is going to take some time to develop, it´s has took either double or triple zigzag mode. Once it´s placed, market is going to drop deep down as larger correction to the triangle bottom while first reversal area is placed at 1,3450, that´s also my first target to reverse.

I am looking this wave to be placed 1.4200 or slightly below.

Strategy; To find B wave top below 1,4200 during july to open short for much larger swing, but I don´t think this B is placed yet meaning we might need one last small bounce.

Hmmmm,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 06:20:04 PDT

It seems for me as everything is sideways in here again. Usd-Chf not able to breake sideways pattern where it´s been since may and it´s too EW exotic for my taste to try to breake it - even I do believe my triangle scenario is accurate and it´s on the way, way up.

So it´s Eur-Usd exotic again - it seems I am not going to get the price today I wanted to short either - so with 5 min. market look I decided to take a day off. Enough pips in here from this week.

Enjoy your weekend.

Stops,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 05:58:30 PDT

Executed by overnight with eur-usd.

-8 pips.

But I dont think friday is going to be any massive as seling day.

Well, well,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:04:02 PDT

It seems that eur-usd landed then anyway, it was just pretty slow process - but does not look very impulsive either. I took 1,3973 as long drive - hopefully it gives some.

Stops 1,3965 - really, this have to be this tight, because I am afraid upside might be as limited as well. I set trailing with 30 pips by overnight. If this fals, path might be pretty large and if this turn for any upside at all it happens right now in here or we fall more - simple ;)

Not any other manual action from me today, was off most of the session - sorry, no charts either, some another activites at this time going on and needed a breake from the market. Day was more than active for me.

Good Night.

Eurodollar,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:16:44 PDT

Gbp-Jpy kissing a bit too much 152,00 resistance in here. I am chicken now and running away ffrom eur-usd short, going to wait that 1,4115 as perhaps tomorrow to short it.

Covered 1,4047. +15 Pips.

1,4062

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:44:53 PDT

Found some 61.8% retracement from there, shorted it again - but with 15 pips stops. Totally lost in translation about it´s fully EW view. If it goes throw, then it´s 1,4115. As closest idea I think that´s where it´s heading, but cannot overlook fibs to not to try hit in here.

1,4115 would be pretty beautifull as HS pattern.

Eur-Usd

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:06:27 PDT

???

Covered,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:43:53 PDT

Smaller slide of eur-usd short 1,4000

-38 pips.

Covered Eur-Cad

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:40:48 PDT

Long 1,6255

+30 pips

Covered Eur-Usd

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:20:48 PDT

Short 1,3974 (the one opened from 1.4000, another one is open).

+26 Pips.

Added Eur-Cad

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:10:03 PDT

Long 1,6225 .

Stops 1,6215.

Covered Eur-Aud,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 07:57:27 PDT

Eur-Aud long 1,7860.

+55 pips.

(looking another long entry later).

Covered Gbp-Usd,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 07:50:09 PDT

Short 1,6210.

+55 pips.

Silent market today,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:53:15 PDT

I set eur-usd profit to be take out with 1,3915 if it falls from here, if eur-usd will reach 1,4000 shorting more meaningfully. I suppose no reason to look market before US opens - looks dead silent for me.

Set manually also shortorder for Cad-Jpy as one slide if 81.00

Logging out, just quick european morning market peak.

Cad-Jpy

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 03:10:47 PDT

Robo closed cad-jpy 80,40.

So, overall smells for me one higher retracement should be on the way and this is propably 81,00 for cad-jpy also where it´s propably short again. Gbp-Usd could be the one short issue also 1,6265, at least for fast trading.

Usd-Chf,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 02:53:23 PDT

It looks for me we will get doublebottom, which is most often behaviour with inverse HS meaning it´s going to hit channel bottom. It should fit to the idea with eur-usd ~1,4000.

1,3962

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 02:34:44 PDT

New day, new adventure. Close enough for me to take first slide. Short 1,3962. Preparing to take another 1,4000-1,4005 area if reached. Stops 1,4055. As inverse Usd-Chf long 1,0837.

Robo did short with CadJpy 80.62 where stops are 81,00. Targeting 79,90 or 79,65.

Eur-Usd & Usd-Chf

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:36:33 PDT

Still looking same setup as today and yesterday; to short it from 1,3950-1,4000 area, but at this time not trying to buy it to achieve these levels - tick has been surprizingly frozen, hardly makes even possible to trade 40 pips in here anymore. Denied to move today anymore at all. The same as inverse looking big break-out for Usd-Chf to the upside from this channel. Expecting Usd-Chf to retrace more down also before break-out run. 1,3450 as final target for eur-usd.

Gbp-Jpy & Recovery Time from todays Shock

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:48:46 PDT

Repeating what wrote earlier today;

Since 143,00 bottom it´s 78,6 % support 147,00.

Since 138,00 bottom it´s 61,8 % support is 147,00.

Since 131,80 bottom 50% support is 147,00.

Since all time low as bear market bottom 38.2% support is 147,00

D up as next (corrective IV, then E impulse down to the 61.8)

Eur-Aud,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 17:04:50 PDT

Retraced back now 38.2% - was hoping to get in to the boat. I have target for it 1,8985 which means over 1000 pips road. With minium I do expect to see 50% first and that´s also over 800 pips road. I bot it long 1,7805, I suppose it makes sense to swing some of these best 240 min EW counts. If we see for any reason another deeper retracements like 50% or 61.8%, will take them all while it´s easy to set tight stops also. To put it another way, I am targeting to go throw that 23.6% line which is todays top and resistance nor matter which zizag we take before next upside impulse takes the control.

We didn´t retrace much yet (23,6) and of cource this can lead more down to the 38,2% and 50% area to place corrective - but thought I will buy them all. One of them will hold. +- zero business if they fails as there´s no comissions either in fx world.

Weird this FX business, for a while it seems there´s nothing much to do and suddenly all kind of setups opens everywhere. For example I shorted Gbp-Jpy from Asian market 149,00 as it shot up now 200 pips now to hit 50% also but I don´t see any reasons anymore to start posting those 40-60 pips trading work - will clean a blog a bit to show just main EW charts, there´s too much talking in here and far too few charts.

It´s good time to go back to back to be deeply EW blog as I had entered for some mechanical & robo trading also. I suppose most readers have good idea allready how to trade manually different EW degrees, even subminuette one´s where any loss can be set as very minimal and quickly executed out to not damage trading results, while still trading over 90-10 W/L ratio.

One of the best advance behaviour of EW is because it offers perfect entry & exit areas which are very often orthodox botttom and tops in given time degree. Specially entry area is very often ultimate bottom area.

I calculated my 6 months trading posts, there has been overall 687 FX trades posted in this blog, 93,6% of them were profitable but now-on, you will enjoy pure charts only.

Eur-Aud,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 11:58:42 PDT

Ouh Boy, it really left me from the train.

I suppose todays action is mostly done now.

Not very good one for me even spend a lot of hours in the marketplace, only one tiny, tiny gbp-jpy profit. I should see those big opportunites to hit yen crosses short side this soon allready because knew it was coming as mentioned many times and I had been shorting them many weeks allready, waste of time to work with dead flat eur-usd in here.

Well, I suppose sometimes you had to face days like this when you watch from the sidelines when all pairs running away from your printing fingers ;)

Stupid once, stupid twice that I didn´t go in from asian market for eur-aud.

Gbp-Jpy,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 10:43:05 PDT

There´s some interesting fibonacci relations in here with 147,00

Since 143,00 bottom it´s 78,6 % support 147,00.

Since 138,00 bottom it´s 61,8 % support is 147,00.

Since 131,80 bottom 50% support is 147,00.

Since all time low as bear market bottom 38.2% support is 147,00

Additionally since 135.20 bottom 61,8% support is 146,00.

Long with 147,00. Perhaps this is just temporary platform but 1200 pips downroad, alone today over 400 smells for me to need a pause. Eur-Usd is dead flat toy in this party.

So, so,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:56:53 PDT

It was 4:th wave then - that´s what it started to look with last 12 hours sideways zigzag progress.

All stops blowed, +-0 pips adventure, so I don´t mind. It didn´t actually effect for eur-usd hardly at all - just 10-30 pips but was enough to take it away also, but yen crosses longs indeed was blowed out now from long hands. My weekend Eur-Aud EW chart was definetely correctly counted!

I´ll wait now sidelines to aloud this impulse to be finished, perhaps today, it looks SPX 880 was not enough for it.

Congratulations for all Yen cross short side traders if there´s any !

Whops,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 07:23:03 PDT

One calculation error, 1,3955 is definetely not enough as target. A bit lazy at so far, today might come as very interesting US session since market have a lot of stops just below usd-yen 94,00.

I suppose those stops can be also taken away (including mine), which would put final bottom for temporary recovery, but also meaning slightly more lower to come. I increased my stops to the +-0 line (buy line) which is possible to do now as prices has came up by overnight. It´s emotionally much easier to take another entry if this setup fails when you don´t have losses.

New day, new adventure,

noreply@blogger.com (Mika) — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 06:00:02 PDT

So, it´s Alcoa evening starting with earnings.

I shorted +30 pips with eurodollar from 38.2% today from europeans market to hedge my longs as it´s certainly sure after big selling program rally cannot go so fast but more importantly I want to open this case in longer picture, I still do have those overnight positions and it seems at so far no surprizes either, eur-usd did everything as speculated, one more tiny landing to the the ~1,3850 area, where recovery started to roll, advanced 38.2% level and down again to retrace 61.8%.

I had removed autotrailings also and operate positions manually. 1,3955 is my eur-usd target. However I added more more tight stops, if eur-usd goes throw 1,3850 - I am out with minimal stops. It seems this recovery looks pretty difficult but so it should, I suppose it can fail also, but cannot avoid to test this platform. Usd-Jpy is right now 94,00 and does this work or not comes there.

Added Gbp-Jpy long 151,30 al. If something fails in here more meaningfully, we´re certainly inside of much larger downside impulse allready.