North Africa + West Asia = Middle East (570m)

New data from Egypt shows a 30% drop in its birth rate since 2015. MEMO
Saudi Arabia’s population declined by 2.6% as 8% of its foreigners left. MEMO
… in pre-Covid 2020, expatriates made up 36% of the Kingdom.

60 migrant laborers working to set up the November World Cup protested working conditions in Qatar, saying they went unpaid for 7 months. Qatar arrested them. Forbes

A moderately deep dive into why the Gulf States have not been as badly affected by food insecurity issues during the Ukraine war: they’ve been investing in food security. (This was a fascinating read: did you know the UAE has an entire ministry devoted to food security? That they bought cheap farmland overseas? I didn’t.) CNN

Shamed and trafficked into Iraq’s sex trade: “You are not honorable any more.” A long documentary report, mostly following two girls, looking at tribal shame/reputation issues, policing, corruption, trials, etc. From Al Jazeera. Link

Stories from Southern Iraq: “boiling heat and no water: taps run dry.” Al-Monitor
Water cuts in some Iranian cities an “existential threat,” sparking protests. RFE
Picturesque: Jordan River, where Jesus was baptized, is today barely a trickle. NCR Online
Libya analysis: “Is Tripoli at the brink of another war?” Middle East Eye
Some Syrian farmers return to their farms, find scorched trees, drought. ABC.net.au
Drug abuse in Sudan: “the tip of the iceberg.” Dabanga
More Sudan protests: roads blocked in Khartoum to demand civilian rule. MEMO

East Africa (520m)

Horn of Africa drought forecast to continue through December, with 5th consecutive failed rainy season. WMO

21 civilians killed during 30-hour siege of the popular Hayat Hotel in Mogadishu. NPR
… the longest such attack in Somalia’s history.
… President vows ‘total war’ against al-Shabab. WaPo

A monthslong ceasefire was broken in Ethiopia when fighting broke out in Tigray. Reuters
… Airstrikes on Tigray possibly resumed with strike on Mekele. SomTribune

The SADC extended the military mission to Cabo Delgado. About 800,000 are displaced by the conflict and are in refugee camps. AllAfrica

West + Middle Africa (600m)

ACLED’s mid-year Sahel update: “Persistent, expanding, and escalating instability.” Link
… “on track to be the deadliest year for Burkina F & Mali since the conflict began” …
Nigeria: “We depend on rain for water”: residents in Ibadan lament scarcity. HumAngle
… “boreholes dug by the state government years ago worked only for a short while.”
… “only 14% of Oyo state’s population have access to safe water”
The deadly crises tearing Nigerian rural communities apart. HumAngle
… “boundary disputes, rarely on the front burner, remain a silent killer.”

South + Central Asia (2b)

Taliban impose “harsh” limits on Afghans’ religious freedom. Khaama Press
US to make $80 million grant to boost Afghanistan food production. Ariana
Afghan refugees in Tajikistan being forcibly deported to Afghanistan. RFE
… rumors, unclear reasons, fear ripples through 10,000-strong Afghan community
Afghan refugees in UAE protest against uncertainty, prison-like conditions. MidEastEye

Record breaking heat wave in India affecting wheat crop. Straits Times
… government is considering grain imports …
Save the Girl: India’s Christians lead Hindus, Muslims & Sikhs on ending gendercide. CT
… “9 million girls gone ‘missing’ in India over past 20 yrs due to sex-selective abortions”
India’s sex ratio at birth begins to normalize. Pew Research
… “Son bias declines sharply among Sikhs, Christians continue to have natural balance”
Seven decades after it was abolished, ‘Untouchability’ continues to be practiced. Diplomat
… ‘Untouchability’ abolished in constitution, but as many as 5 acts committed hourly.
Muslim girls are suing to wear the hijab–and protect secularism. NPR

The Islamic Republic is killing Islam in Iran: signs it is losing its religion. Bulwark

Over 30 million in Pakistan affected by monsoon flooding. Guardian
… “comparable to 2010 when 2,000 were killed and 20% of the country was under water”

Sri Lanka crisis continues: “children go to bed hungry in bankrupt nation.” Straits Times
… “families skipping regular meals because kitchen staples are unaffordable”

Eastern Asia (1.6b)

Record heat wave threatens China’s power supplies and agriculture. SCMP
… also, wildfires in Chongqing related to heatwave. CNN
… in photos, by Sixth Tone
China says Covid has exacerbated decline in births, marriages. Reuters
China is exerting pressure on foreign companies doing business in its markets. Reuters
… “to bring them into line with its political agenda… broadening the ‘red lines’ for issues” …
China’s property market is in freefall means what for the world economy? Guardian
… “global ripple effect is likely to be limited” …
China’s zero-Covid policy has turned Nepal border towns into ‘dead’ zones. Link
… trade routes dry up, borders closed to Nepal’s exporters.
China reopens to foreign students after more than two years. Bloomberg
… foreigners holding valid Chinese residence permit for study or APEC business travel card

South Korea records world’s lowest fertility rate–again: down to 0.81/woman. CNN

Scenes from the region
How Hong Kong gets the Hungry Ghost festival all wrong. SCMP

Southeast Asia (700m)

Indonesian radicals “weaponizing” climate change to gain support for their cause: “argue that the secular capitalist ideology of the West enables climate change.” East Asia Forum

New Humanitarian longread: The Rohingya, a humanitarian emergency decades in the making.  Link

Americas+Europe+Pacific

Americans forgot how long refugee resettlement takes. CT
… “one year into the biggest US refugee wave since Vietnam, Christians trying to buy Afghan immigrants more time.”

Christian colleges look for “missing men”. CT
… apparently it’s not just mission agencies. Unfortunately, this article is long on examining strategies for recruiting and keeping young men to the colleges, but very short on why the men are missing in the first place. If you’ve seen studies or articles, please email links.

In 1975, only one UN region had more: Eastern Asia. We have thought of East Asia (and China) as being the most numerous population zone for some time.

By 2000, two regions had more than a billion people: Eastern Asia (China) and Southern Asia (India).

By 2075, however, four regions will have more than a billion: Eastern Africa, Western Africa, Eastern Asia and Southern Asia. And Southern Asia will have over 2 billion people.

And by 2100, East Asia will no longer be a billion-person region, as China’s population declines. And Southern Asia will have peaked at around 2.5 billion or so by 2075, and begun to decline as well.

Of course, lots of things can happen between now and 2100.

There are many reasons we could observe, but one that perhaps has gotten less attention is this: most movements are operating in a ‘blue ocean’ space with little competition from other Christian entities.

Because of their history and ‘DNA,’ these ‘movements’ are often structures that have grown up with high concentrations of apostolically-minded individuals: people who are outward looking (outside of the church), who have the lost in mind and in view, who regularly ‘go out among the lost,’ who orient activities toward the lost (as opposed to ‘service’ to existing believers).

These apostolically minded individuals share the same language and culture as the people surrounding them. More to our point, the people around them are, for the most part, religiously-oriented, spiritually-hungry, and at least nominally members of non-Christian. This isn’t because they have chosen against Christianity; the church is largely not present, and other religions form the majority. People have not really encountered and made an initial decision for or against some strand of Christendom.

In many Western environments, evangelists are having to deal with people’s preconceptions about Christianity–and most particularly, whether the person being ‘evangelized’ is already a member of a Christian tradition or denomination. In many movement environments, when asked about Jesus, they either think of the individual they know from Islam (if they are in that environment), or sometimes they ask if he (Jesus) lives in a nearby town.

Many of these individuals are religiously minded, so movements aren’t having to engage with agnostics or atheists. Many firmly believe in the supernatural, are eager to pray for a supernatural miracle to meet a need (because they don’t have access to more materialistic methods for meeting needs), and are open to learning about a God who loves them.

I am unsurprised when I discover that, in those sorts of environments, rapid growth is to be had. We have known about past cases of rapid growth (Islam & Christianity amongst tribal religions, the rapid growth of radio churches, anecdotal stories about the rapid spread of the church in Iran and China, etc). Many of the factors that prevent rapid growth in the West (for example, competition between denominations, an unwillingness amongst Western Christians to spend time among the lost, and the perception of the church held by the lost themselves) are simply not present where movements are.

It might be useful to consider a two-axis grid of possible results from persecution, and consider what the shape of a single data point in any of these quadrants might look like.

For example, a “more commitment but fearful” approach might lead to significant numbers of isolated and hidden believers, while a “more commitment but bold” approach might lead to the more stereotypical image we have of the bold evangelist in the face of possible death. What might a “less committed, more bold” approach might be? It might, for example, look like an outside advocate or activist who speaks out against the persecution but chooses not to live in the specific situation.

This particular approach is a “beta draft,” and there may be better ways to think about it or phrase it. However, considering quadrants like these – or other axes/quadrants – can lead us to think about how we engage with people in each of the quadrants, or even how people might move along the axes into different quadrants.

(And if I love him, Jesus says, I should obey him.)

North Africa + West Asia = Middle East (570m)

Algeria announces it will pivot from teaching French to English as a second language in public primary schools in the upcoming academic year. BBC

Sudanese farmers face great challenges, “agricultural season could fail.” Dabanga
East Sudan hit by floods, many Darfur farms destroyed. AllAfrica

East Africa (520m)

About 9,000 Tigrayans in Semera camps allowed to return to Abala. VOA

Ethiopia’s worsening drought sees hunger numbers soar: close to eight million “facing life-threatening levels of hunger in the south.” Rains later this year are expected to fail, leading to an unprecedented fifth season of drought. NewHum

Upskilling young people is essential to the future of Somalia. All Africa

US Minnesotan Somalis organize to provide relief for suffering from drought and famine in Somalia and Ethiopia. Hiiraan Online

West + Middle Africa (600m)

Rising insecurity causes schools to shut down in Nigeria’s capital. HumAngle

Longer read: What’s behind terrorist attacks on churches in Nigeria. AllAfrica

In photos: a look at a centuries-old festival on the Osun River in Nigeria, which now faces modern challenges of pollution. Guardian

Protests turned deadly in Sierra Leone over rising cost of living. NYT $
Now, uneasy calm in Sierra Leone after deadly protests. DW

South + Central Asia (2b)

One year anniversary of Taliban takeover articles:
Beneath Kabul’s venear of normalcy, a precarious balancing act. WaPo $
One year later, Afghanistan is a land of shrugs and sadness. FP
Life harder as poverty worsens, but for some Taliban’s return is welcome. Straits Times
The Taliban have done “tremendous damage to Afghanistan’s state institutions.” Diplomat
Underground schools offer hope for girls. CSM
Brain Drain: exodus of professionals since takeover leaves Af. starting from scratch. RFE
Thousands of Af. refugees still waiting for chance to come to the US. NYT $
MORR says 622k Afghans have returned from from Pak., Iran, elsewhere. Ariana
Economy still in crisis–and so are its children. Diplomat

India: Himachal Pradesh assembly passes bill that bans forced mass conversion, increases punishment for illegal conversion to 10 years. Scroll.in

75 years later, the fading ghosts of India’s bloody partition. NYT $

Nepal’s holy Bagmati River choked with black sewage, trash. AP

Pakistan: why do floods devastate Balochistan so intensely? Largely because there is little adequate warning, and those who flee floods have no safe place to go. Diplomat

Sri Lanka will not extend state of emergency as protests peter out. Straits Times
But SriL’s rice crop this year could be cut by as much as half. Japan Times

Eastern Asia (1.6b)

China introduces new measures to make it easier to work and raise a family: “make it easier for couples to have up to three children.” SCMP

The Chinese dream of homeownership is crumbling; the economy could go with it. LAT

19.9% of China’s urban youth were unemployed in July, a new record. Caixin

China’s fight against extreme poverty may be over, but a stark urban-rural divide lingers: revitalizing rural areas has mixed success, and many still struggle to find their niche. SCMP

Major drought in southwest China threatens water, crops, power. Sixth Tone
Heat wave spikes the price of eggs, with fewer hens laying. Straits Times

A Shandong farmer’s big venture in Spain: “Even now, in our rural exodus away from China to work in Europe, acquaintances remain crucial. We always choose a place where our connections will help us settle down, find a job, earn money, and eventually obtain a permanent residence permit.”The World of Chinese

Japan’s outsider caste: the burakumin still feel the impact of discrimination. Diplomat

All about the Obon Ghost Festival in Japan. East-West

N Korea’s trade with China jumps to highest level since April Covid outbreak. NK News

Short piece by Korean diplomat touches on increasing relations between Korea and the Arab world. Korea Herald

Southeast Asia (700m)

Chinese churches survived discrimination in Indonesia; now the church is growing spiritually. “Our main reach-out is to people of Buddhist and Confucian backgrounds.” CT

Bangladesh’s PM told UNHCR chief that Rohingya must return to Myanmar. Al Jazeera

Myanmar: “Survival at any cost” as generals move to cement power. Al Jazeera
Young people clamor to leave Myanmar in giant brain drain. Irrawaddy
… Japan, S Korea, Dubai, Malaysia, Thailand are popular destinations …

Thailand will soon offer a 10-year “work from Thailand” visa. Fortune
… hoping to attract digital nomads, open to any remote worker. App opens Sep 1.
Thailand: 17 locations in the south suffer bomb, arson attacks. Reuters

Americas+Europe+Pacific

London Heathrow caps outbound passengers at 100k/day due to staff shortages. Forbes

Ukraine:
First ship to Africa: wheat for Ethiopia left Ukraine headed for Djibouti. Hiiraan
Against backdrop of war, nonstop crush of weddings in Kyiv. LA Times

One of the core high-value activities of DMM is, “Go out among the lost” and abundantly sow. In his book Megachurch to Multiplication, Chris Galanos quotes Stan Parks (my boss) in a typical Stan-ism: “The people who get the most groups started are the people who do the most asking.”

We hear a lot of miraculous and almost-miraculous stories about the people of peace who have been found. We hear fewer stories about the conversations where evangelists were turned away without fruit. For every story I’ve heard of someone who was desperate for the lost, intersected training, and began to apply it and saw fruit, I have heard many reports from movements about thousands of people who were trained–yet did nothing with it. Movement practitioners tell me of having to have dozens, perhaps even a hundred spiritual conversations to find a single person of peace. An hour or five among the lost won’t cut it.

Those who are involved in movements seem to think nothing of this time investment. They are out among the lost constantly, spending their time either in prayer or sharing or coaching. Is it that they are more spiritual? Or is it that they are less distracted? Years ago one coach told me that in the country he focused on, “There’s nothing else to do at night except sit around and tell testimonies of what God has done.” Materialistic poverty led to spiritual riches?

Whatever the reason, it seems to me — and others I’ve talked to — that many people in non-movement contexts (e.g. Westerners, among others) seem to want to “go out among the lost for an hour or so” and then become disaffected when they don’t find people of peace. “It’s not happening here,” we think. I wonder if it’s not happening here, or if, in the words of one movement leader, we have unrealistic expectations.

Would it help to hear more stories about disappointments? Perhaps the reason we hear stories about finding people of peace, but not about the stories of the many disappointments, is that the people telling stories instinctively know the hearers don’t really want to hear the stories about the grind. That’s a shame.

I know we want the Holy Spirit to lead us directly to the spiritually hungry person. I don’t know why he doesn’t regularly seem to do that. But I do wonder how God uses the many who turn us down to form us. Does it make us realize the precious nature of the spiritually hungry person? Does looking at so many different people and then finding the spiritually hungry in the least likely place make us realize we shouldn’t pre-judge the field? Do we go to all the places we expect to find fruit and realize God is leading us to the unexpected places? Is it a discipline that leads us to be charitably disposed to every individual we come across? Does it build a holy desperation in us?

Clearly, I have lots of ideas but no firm convictions. But what I do know is that, based on the evidence of what many movements are seeing, if you aren’t seeing fruit, one (and only one) possibility is that you haven’t had enough spiritual conversations. And possibly that’s because you haven’t spent enough time.

(There are other possibilities, but that’s for another day.)

But they focus even more on making disciple-maker-makers: disciples, who make disciples, who can make disciples.

Unleash disciple-making!
And the making of disciple-makers!

Anyone can explain to someone (their child, for example) where babies come from. But it’s an entirely different thing to teach or mentor or coach a child to be a good parent themselves. And yet another thing to pass on to a child how to teach their child to be a parent.

I can help someone know how to plant a seed in the ground, water it, and see it sprout–that’s a basic home science project. It’s another thing to raise a tomato plant to bear fruit. And even a harder thing to manage an entire garden. And a yet harder thing to cross-pollinate plants, create better, more hardy tomatoes, etc.

We focus a lot on the initial fruit. Movement-practitioners focus more on the gardening, growing, and generational aspects.

Sometimes, we say that event is “the move of the sovereign hand of God.”

Sometimes, we say it’s “just a random event.”

Either way, we are saying we don’t know why it happened.

One way imbues meaning by faith. The other says, we don’t know, and perhaps we wonder if God does.

From the point of view of the person who doesn’t yet follow Christ, might it be better to stick with “I don’t know” then try to imbue some meaning that we don’t understand?

Might it be better to remember “God works things together for good” instead of assuming “This event is God’s will and therefore is good”–especially when, in the moment, it doesn’t feel good at all? Remember we are to “rejoice with those who rejoice and weep with those who weep.”

Just becomes something good comes out of an event doesn’t make it good. To use an extreme example, people came to faith in God in concentration camps–but that doesn’t make the camps God’s will.

This is perhaps useful to keep in mind when considering the price that many movements have paid, are paying, and will pay. Also, when considering that it is within turmoil that movements find significant growth. Let us be careful about analyzing why turmoil happens, and imputing motives to the God whose thoughts are higher than ours.

1. How many seeds become a tree?
2. How many seeds are in a single fruit?
3. How many trees are in a single fruit?
4. How much fruit does a tree produce per year?
5. How many seeds are in the fruit produced by a tree in a year?
6. How many trees are in the fruits produced by one tree in a year?
7. How many fruits get picked up and carried to a distant place?
8. How many orchards are in the fruit that get carried off?