Vinod joins Bloomberg’s Akshat Rathi at Bloomberg Green Seattle to discuss climate tech investing and the breakthrough technologies poised to drive future growth.

China’s dominance in solar manufacturing is a stark example of the economic prowess conferred by these crucial climate markets. China’s clean-energy sector (primarily solar, energy storage and electric vehicles) contributed about $1.6trn, or roughly 9%, to China’s $18trn economy in 2023. Perhaps more important, China’s ownership of over four-fifths of global solar manufacturing means that it has twice the share of the solar-hardware market as the entire OPEC+ cartel has in petroleum.

I believe that the climate tech that matters involves only about a dozen technologies. Among these, only those that match or beat fossil fuels on price are currently worth pursuing. By scaling and exporting them, America can increase its manufacturing prowess, cement its techno-economic lead and blunt China’s industrial advantage. The rationale for scaling does not, in other words, depend on whether or not you believe in climate change.

America can recover its lost lead in manufacturing technology for cement and steel, and become the leader in dispatchable (ie, producible on demand) energy like fusion and advanced geothermal technologies, particularly “super hot” geothermal, or SHG. In my judgment as a long-standing climate investor, these breakthroughs will be at or near economic viability well within a decade. (Full disclosure: I have invested in many of these promising technologies, both winners and losers.)

American fusion startups are making rapid progress. Instead of wasting tens of billions of dollars on the ITER fusion project, a boondoggle collaboration among 35 countries, American public efforts should focus on initial deployments of clearly superior American technologies. Instead of shuttering coal plants, we might soon be in a position to swap their boilers and turbines for fusion boilers when they come up for replacement. Emissions would plummet, assets would stay productive—and the transition could take place at the pace of scheduled maintenance. American fusion startups like Realta, Helion and Commonwealth Fusion Systems can power the planet.

Similarly, SHG could increase energy production dramatically by tapping into the 400°C-plus heat miles beneath the Earth’s surface. This approach holds out the promise of producing clean power at a cost competitive with natural gas. Private capital is already supporting drilling. The government’s role should be to offer offtake (long-term purchase) contracts, so projects can get financed. These technologies will not require subsidies once scaled.

Full article available on The Economist.

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