United Nations head honcho Ban Ki-Moon arrived in Kigali last night. He held talks with Foreign Minister Louise Mushikiwabo and should, at this very moment, be sharing tea and biscuits with President Paul Kagame. The topic on the table is the draft UN “mapping” report about alleged atrocities in DR Congo between 1993 – 2003. Rwanda “slammed the report” soon after the draft was leaked on August 26. The government subsequently threatened to withdraw its UN peacekeeping troops from Darfur and elsewhere should the report be published. The UN thought twice and has delayed publication until October 1,

“Following requests, we have decided to give concerned states a further month to comment on the draft,” [said UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay]. “I have offered to publish any such comments alongside the report itself.” link

Rwanda is happy about the Ban Ki-Moon visit, but outraged at the report,

“We are very happy that the secretary general thought it was important to come here and discuss this DRC mapping report,” said Louise Mushikiwabo, who met Ban on Tuesday evening shortly after his arrival.

“Our expectations are that he understands why we have rejected this report, it is important that he understands why we are outraged by this report…, which is bound to cause instability in the region.”

“There is no question that, should this report be released as we have seen in a draft version, with its false accusations and without talking to the interested parties, Rwanda will pull out its troops immediately.” link

So, why the picture of a bus hairing round the “small roundabout” in central Kigali at an impossible angle earlier this week? Take a closer look below. What odds would you give this bus of making that corner? And are they any better or worse than Rwanda’s chances of getting the incendiary sections of the report removed?

I have a created a “newspaper” for all those interested in Rwanda. The Rwanda Daily is published once per day and you can sign up for it by clicking on the “Alert me” button at Paper.li and adding your email address. You will then receive an email once per day letting you know when the latest edition is available.

Without going into all the details… the Rwanda Daily is produced from links about Rwanda shared on Twitter by some 80 – 90 people daily. It’s not filtered, it’s potentially easy to “game” and I’m not responsible for content which may appear in it etc. etc…

If you’re after a quick overview of Rwanda on a daily basis, the Rwanda Daily might be for you. I’ve been testing it for a couple of months and, beyond some spammy tweet links, it’s provided quite an interesting overview.

I hope you still come back to Kigali Wire for the photos and the news wire which, unlike the Rwanda Daily, is 100% human-filtered. By me.

A suspected grenade attack hit central Kigali at approximately 7pm yesterday evening at the busy Rubangura bus stop. At least 7 people were wounded in the attack. Rwandan police have arrested three suspects and are linking this attack to a spate of similar attacks which began in February, 2010,

“We have arrested three suspects, who we are interrogating now, but considering where it happened we suspect that it is connected to earlier explosions in the year,” police spokesman Eric Kayiranga said in an interview today. “These are criminals seeking to destabilize us, but we have put different mechanisms in place across the country to ensure that Rwanda is secure.” link

A total of 10 grenades or IEDs have exploded in the capital on five separate evenings since 19 February. 5 people have been killed and at least 73 wounded. The attack comes on the day the 2010 Presidential election results were confirmed giving Kagame 93% of the vote. Previous attacks have also occurred at “auspicious moments”.

The three simultaneous attacks on February 19 happened just days before the French President Nicolas Sarkozy was due to visit Kigali.

Two weeks later, on March 3, President Kagame sought to reassure Rwandans that they were safe. The day after his announcement, there were two simultaneous attacks and sixteen people were injured.

However, as one journalist commented last night; you could easily associate any one of these attacks with any number of events or issues at any given time.

Rapha has a good summary (in German) of previous grenade attacks in Kigali.

In an attempt to try and make some sense of these attacks, I have mapped them onto the Google map below. Click on a pin to find out more about each attack. Please let me know if there any inaccuracies.

There was no discussion about who would win Rwanda’s 2010 Presidential election among Rwandan and foreign hacks as we drove through the eastern provinces yesterday afternoon. As we passed shuttered polling stations, the betting began. How much would President Paul Kagame win by?

By 5pm, we’d heard three preliminary results from three separate polling stations. The consensus in the car put the win at around 96%. I’ll admit, I went for a 90% Kagame win purely for pragmatic reasons. As far as I understand it, and please correct me if I’m wrong, the opposition parties need 5% of the vote each to secure government funds to stay in existence.

If the preliminary result of almost 93% for Kagame stands, I’m not sure what it will mean for the opposition, such as it is,

According to the preliminary results released by the National Electoral Commission, President Kagame won by 92.9 percent. The PSD candidate, Dr. Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo, has 4.9 %, Prosper Higiro from the Liberal party (PL) 1.5 % and the PPC candidate, Dr Alvera Mukabaramba 0.7 %. link

Now we know the result – roughly the same as the result in the 2003 election – let’s look at some of the more unreported issues around the election and also what the result means for Rwanda and the region going forward.

Campaign period

The crowds at the RPF campaign rallies were colossal. This show of strength was aimed at three audiences. To Rwandans, it emphasizes the strength and perceived popularity of the RPF. To foreign observers, it’s a fantastic piece of PR for the ruling party. In addition, and most importantly according to western diplomatic sources, this impressive show of support was directed at “enemies of Rwanda outside Rwanda”.

On the quirkier side, the fact that (at least one rally in Muhanga) by the Liberal party was funded by the RPF seems to have gone unnoticed by all media outlets bar Reuters. Even though it supports the over-riding media narrative that there is no convincing opposition,

At one Liberal Party rally, which attracted 200-300 people, an official said the event was funded and organized by Kagame’s ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). She too would vote for the incumbent, the official added. link

Rwanda PR machine melts down

It was just late 2009 when the head of a western NGO talked to me about how incredible Rwanda’s PR machine is. “How do they run their ship so tightly?”, she asked. Well, 2010 saw that ship all but sink. It’s unclear whether any amount of professional shoring up will stop the tide of bad press, at least in the short term. How did it happen and happen so quickly?

This BBC report, in particular, was damning. However, it’s the links, more perceived than proven, of recent events being made by western media that have probably been most damaging.

Grenade attacks, defections, assassinations, press freedom and repression of political opposition… they are regularly bundled into your average Rwanda story. There is no proof (that I know of) linking any of these events, but the portrayal by western media often leaves readers with the impression that some or all of these events can be linked and linked back to the government.

For example, the common narrative with the banning of Umuseso and Umuvugizi newspapers for six months is that this is a bad thing. However, I’m reliably told that both Umuseso and Umuvugizi regularly fabricated entire stories and made up quotes. Sure, the 6 month ban looks draconian, but it’s clear these papers were, at best, unprofessional.

Another case is Victoire Ingabire’s FDU-Inkingi Party party which was not allowed to register for the Presidential election. She has been held under house arrest and had her passport taken away. Western media outlets often portray this as blatant suppression without looking at some of the more damaging facts. Ingabire refuses to divulge how her party is financed and she is President of two somewhat dodgy Rwanda diaspora parties – the RDR and FDU.

Ingabire is president of two Rwandan émigré parties based in Europe. One is the RDR, the other the FDU; they are essentially the same, save for the alphabet-soup acronym intrigue of émigré politics. Both are the descendents of the RDR party established in 1995 in eastern Congo by Rwandan military leaders of the 1994 genocide against the minority Rwandan Tutsi. Their intent was to replace, with less compromised faces, the Rwandan interim government that had committed the genocide and then retreated to eastern Congo.

The founding RDR ideology and strategy, never repudiated since 1995, is to return the genocide perpetrators and their supporters to power in Rwanda by force or by negotiation. Ingabire’s predecessor as RDR president in Europe, Charles Ndereyehe, is the subject of an Interpol warrant for genocide crimes committed against Tutsis in 1994. Ingabire’s RDR and FDU have long had ties with the FDLR in eastern Congo. link

Election day

Most foreign hacks stayed in Kigali for election day. This is largely because of the need to feed the media agenda; get the buzz in the capital, film the President casting his ballot, await preliminary results and make sure you have time to get to the 7pm victory party at Amahoro Stadium in the capital. The schedule doesn’t allow for the parachuted-in foreign correspondent, who might be unfamiliar with Rwanda, to get out of the capital on election day. However, for those of us that did, the Kigali “showboat election” as one western diplomat described it, wasn’t necessarily mirrored across the country,

In at least one incident, however, voters were ushered into polling stations hours before voting officially opened and instructed to vote for Kagame. “The first picture on the ballot sheet was Kagame. We were told to take their thumbs and show them where to vote. I know personally because I oversaw 83 people,” said one man identifying himself as a village chief and RPF member. A second man in the same village in Rwanda’s Eastern province told Reuters he used a megaphone to order sleeping residents to vote: “Wake up, go to vote early, the one you have to vote for, you know him.” link

Going forward

I’ll blog some more thoughts on Rwanda’s prospects over the coming months and years when I’ve had more time to digest recent news and events. However, I suspect any election quibbles will very soon be forgotten. Whichever ever way you cut it, this was an emphatic victory. The President has already stated that Rwanda is not ready for the medicine of democracy and given the country’s unique history he may well be right. Time, or the next seven years at least, will tell.

The Christian Science Monitor has a good initial analysis of Rwanda’s role regionally over the coming years,

Seen by the US, Britain, and increasingly by France as a reliable strategic partner in Africa, Kagame would appear to have a secure position. But a string of defections and arrests of top Rwandan military and government officials, and assassination attempts against Kagame’s critics, are starting to leave a bad taste in the mouth of even those African leaders who once voiced their solidarity and support. link

And Reuters has a useful “snap analysis”,

Some analysts say Kagame must repair his image following the crackdown on political opponents and critical media ahead of the vote and prove he is not just another African strongman with a slick international public relations machine. They say the bush war veteran will need to convince foreign donors and investors that he remains committed to his promise of democratising the country to ensure the impressive development seen over the past decade will be maintained. Analysts say Rwanda can expect far more foreign direct investment if it improves democratic accountability in the years to come rather than taking an increasingly autocratic line. link

Lastly, I’ll leave you with one abiding memory of this intriguing election period in Rwanda – the campaign trail dust. As filmed on the road to a PSD rally in Karenge. I’m still washing it out…

Kigali residents were out in numbers this morning to vote in the 2010 Presidential election. Voting was scheduled to begin at 6am. I spotted a line of 60 – 75 voters at around 5:15amin in Kimihuru district. At 5:30am, I headed over to Nyamirambo with Reuters snapper Finbarr O’Reilly to try and gauge the voting day buzz. It was typically Rwandan – calm, quiet, orderly… kinda dull. White t-shirted polling day staff were briefed a little before 6am by which time lengthy lines, like the one above, had already formed.

Polling stations are, I believe, open until 3pm. However, observers tell me the voting is expected to be largely over by 10am. President Paul Kagame was set to vote next to the arts and crafts market near Le Cercle de Sportif. He’s also expected to snag at least 90% of the vote. I understand the “opposition” parties need to gain 5% of the vote each if they are to receive state allocated funds for political parties. I’ll blog a little more during the day, if time permits. In the meantime, I’ll upload photos to the Kigali Wire Flickr account.

Dr. Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo and his Social Democratic Party, or PSD, certainly don’t make it easy for you to find their political rallies. Late morning, I headed east out of Kigali with Reuters correspondent Hez Holland. The rally was scheduled to take place in Rwamagana, some 35km or so from the capital. Mid-journey, the location changed. An SMS message told us it would now take place in Rugende. That’s Rugende pictured above. It’s little more than a Gapco petrol station and a smattering of houses. A half hour wait, more phone calls and we’re told to head up the “10km track in front of you”.

That 10km was closer to 30km and was solid dust, bumps and road works for the entire length. A lot of fun to drive, but hardly the most practical place to get to. We arrived as Ntawukuriryayo was in mid-speech, in front of a crowd of approximately 400 people, sitting on white plastic chairs under the shade of a tent. The mid-day sun, white hats, white tent and white chairs conspired to make any photographic ambitions I might have had a bit of a no-no. The kids below had the right idea, lying in the shade of one of the PSD trucks.

Of all the opposition candidates in this election, Ntawukuriryayo is the only runner who is remotely convincing. (By the by, one western diplomat I spoke to said they’re not even bothering to look at the campaign of the fourth candidate, Alvèra Mukabaramba and the Democratic Republic Movement). Ntawukuriryayo is largely responsible for bringing health insurance to Rwandans. However, with a paltry 400 supporters in attendance in Karenge – compared to Kagame’s 100,000+ spectaculars – only the most optimistic/blinkered/deluded would believe he stands a realistic chance come August 9.

During the small press huddle, Ntawukuriryayo deflected questions about the relative lack of support he has garnered in comparison with the President’s mammoth gatherings. He insisted the number of people attending the rally is not important. Those that do attend act as “messengers” to their own communities. In addition, he refused to compare PSD and RPF,

“For me, I have been against those comparisons. The classic one saying, Oh people who have been working together can’t compete in any election. We have been competing in the legislative elections in 2003… and today we are doing the same…”

“…I have never compared what I am doing with others. They do their business, I do mine. Then I will wait for the final decision which is going to be given by the people.”

Like all the parties, it is very difficult to find out how many supporters they each have. When asked how many supporters PSD has, Ntawukuriryayo replied,

“Count yourself here. I am not here to disclose on numbers. Look to the people and ask them. Ask them if they will vote for PSD or if they are going to give the message to others.”

He said that people need to read the PSD party manifesto to see how they differ from the RPF. However, Rwandans will only really see the differences when the manifesto is implemented,

“If people would read our manifesto… they should see the difference. And sometimes, the difference comes when you implement. So, we are going to show the difference when we are going to be elected.”

I might attempt to upload a segment of audio from the interview, but Internet connections are not playing nice. The New Times also has a summary of the rally,

“Karenge has the best banana plantations in the country…I want all areas in the country that are suitable for bananas to look up to you,” he said. “I will also end teachers’ poor payment once and for all, hence improving education in the country. Vote for me-give me your vote and develop Rwanda.” link

Photographs taken from the Kigali Wire Flickr account.

Prosper Higiro, the Liberal Party candidate in Rwanda’s 2010 Presidential election, held a rally on a scrap of land in Muhanga, central Rwanda yesterday. The Higiro rally was always going to be smaller than Kagame’s 100,000+ Gicumbi love-in the day earlier. However, myself and the car full of foreign hacks I was ferrying, weren’t quite prepared for what greeted us as we pulled up just ten minutes before the scheduled kick off. It was… well… underwhelming.

As you can see in the picture above, the organisers had quite literally spared no expense. Possibly because they have very little in the way of campaign funds. Things almost livened up an hour later with the arrival of a sound system on the back of a pick-up truck. But, as one foreign hack observed soon after our arrival, this was something of a “democratic still birth”.

With no sign of any movement half an hour after the scheduled start, those present were treated to a bit of Rwandan reggae coming out of the Liberal Party disco mobile. I tried to amuse myself by playing with the tiltshift generator app on my phone, see the result below

And here’s a sample of the music

It was surprisingly difficult to find anyone who would say they planned to vote for Higiro on August 9, even among the 50 or so “green shirts” present. Indeed, a number said Kagame was their man. Others wouldn’t commit to anyone at all.

When the yellow-capped Higiro arrived, from an earlier rally in Nyamagabe and two hours or more late, the green shirts entered chanting, flag waving mode. The introductory speeches took about an hour and finally, at around 5pm, Higiro took to the podium – once it had been moved three times so he wasn’t staring directly into the sun.

Approximately 50 supporters and some 50 children stood in line alongside the podium as he spoke. Another 150-200 people stood on the embankment overlooking the rally. The New Times has a summary of soundbites,

“There is hope for victory and residents have been very good and welcoming. The party has however met some difficulties due to internal structures and minimal resources, but we (PL) are still hopeful of winning these polls,” Higiro said.

“The numbers of residents attending the rallies don’t matter. The most important issue is the outcome of the final vote on the ballot papers. We are ready for this,” he remarked. link

I hit Rwanda’s political campaign trail in northern Rwanda today. The entire 67km route from Kigali towards Gicumbi district was lined with police. One or two officers were stationed every 500 metres or so. This was clearly a very well organised security operation as well as what turned out to be an efficiently run political rally for the RPF incumbent President Paul Kagame.

It’s difficult, perhaps impossible (for a mere human anyway) to gauge numbers of attendees at a rally of this kind.

When I arrived I asked a heavily armed soldier guarding the perimeter, of what is effectively a natural ampitheatre in Gicumbi district, how many people he thought were present. “300,000″, he replied with a broad smile.

The next person I bumped into, a man involved in the planning of the RPF election campaign, suggested maybe 140,000 “more than previous rallies”.

Once I was ensconced in the “press pen”, situated directly in front of Paul Kagame’s podium, a Rwandan translator put the figure at “maybe 200,000″. The Rwanda News Agency probably has it about right at circa 100,000.

There were five (mercifully short) speeches before Kagame took the podium. The rally started proper some time after mid-day and many of those present told me they had been there since 7AM “dancing and singing”. The RPF clearly know how to run a political rally.

The crowd appeared to be divided into sections. Those closest to the podium (and the cameras) were the t-shirt wearing, flag waving, chant leading variety. Further back, they were less vocal and there were less flags. Some attendees appeared to be divided into sections according to where they came from. In ‘the gods” there were fewer flags and almost no paulkagame.com t-shirts, but plenty of people still swayed whenever a chant kicked off or “Kagame’s pop anthem” (which, I must say, is pretty catchy) began to play. Every Kagame soundbite was greeted by cheers, chanting, dancing and singing or all four simultaneously.

The press pen was mostly populated by Rwandan journalists. However, there were five foreign journalists present and at least seven video cameras. I also noticed a small number of camera-laden Embassy “observers” milling around elsewhere in the rally.

All in all, it was a very impressive, well run show. The Rwanda News Agency has a run down (subs only and in French) of what Kagame said – nothing that new, it’s more about the spectacle I suspect. I will be attending opposition rallies over the coming days and I’ll also blog them. Attendance numbers will not come remotely close to those of Kagame – whatever the actual numbers really were – however I think they may be of equal interest in their own way. More photos to come.

UPDATE: The New Times puts the attendance figure at “over 150,000″. Shall we settle for “a lot”?

The pictures taken from the Kigali Wire Flickr account.

UPDATE: I’ve uploaded more to my personal account. You can view the (not quite in order) slide show.

UPDATE: And here is a short video clip (which took nearly 2 hours to upload…) from the Gicumbi rally.

Rwanda’s Presidential election campaign began this week. The four eligible candidates have three weeks to travel around Rwanda and inform voters of their manifestos before polling day on August 9.

Local and foreign journalists have a shiny new election press centre to base themselves in. However, according to Rwandan law, the election result does not have to be declared until August 23. I’m not sure how many foreign hacks will hang around for two weeks in expensive Kigali if the results take that long to trickle out. Although, I do know at least Hez Hollland will be in town.

I’m in France at the moment. I’ll be back in Kigali at the end of next week. I have a new camera with which I intend to do a lot more snapping during the election. We’ve already discussed some of the key concerns in the run up to the election and I am trying (as best I can between connections) to keep abreast with Rwandan election campaign news while I am travelling. I’m bookmarking all campaign news items here. The highlights I’ve picked up on today are:

• Peter Beaumont’s Observer article and the comments below it. As I tweeted earlier today, the mixture of comments say much about how difficult it is to discuss Rwanda in a reasoned manner.
• The African Bulletin summary of the four Presidential candidates and the election campaign.
• President Paul Kagame’s social media effort shifts into gear. I see this Flickr account sprouted today.
• And the BBC World Service ran a piece which perfectly sums up the two viewpoints during this Rwandan election. And, as ever in Rwanda, there do only seem to be two viewpoints.

Paul Bakibinga spoke to the former speaker of the Rwandan parliament and a critic of the regime in Rwanda, author Joseph Sebarenzi,

However, Rwanda’s High Commissioner to the UK, Ernest Rwamucyo, is confident that the polls will be free and fair.

“Paranoia on all sides is rife” That’s the last line in a June 2010 Economist article about the situation in Rwanda. Grenade attacks, detention of opposition candidates, assassinations and assassination attempts, coupled with a weak press and an overactive rumour mill has meant that paranoia and fear is common among Rwandans. With the Presidential election scheduled for August 9, let’s take a look at some of the key concerns for the coming months.

The state of the political opposition

Everybody in Rwanda and overseas knows which candidate from which party will win the election on August 9. It’s how they win that is important.

• Frank Habineza, leader of the Democratic Green Party, has allegedly received death threats, has been detained and, after repeated attempts, has been unable to register his party.

• Victoire Ingabire, who returned to Rwanda in January after a 16 year absence, has been unable to register her party either. She was also arrested for “collaborating with a terrorist organisation”. Ingabire is accused of having ties with the FDLR in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Presidential wannabe denies this. As do the FDLR.

• In addition, Bernard Ntaganda, leader of the Social Party, has been arrested and held for “terrorism acts”.

Which leaves us with just four candidates in the Presidential race; Paul Kagame (RPF) who won the 2003 election with 95.1% of the vote, Prosper Higiro (PL), accused of being an RPF “satellite party” who is yet to unveil a manifesto, Dr Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo (PSD), who denies being an RPF “stooge candidate” and Dr Alvera Mukabaramba (PPC), who withdrew from the 2003 election to side with the RPF.

Regardless of stooge candidate claims and the like, the fact that the more vocal opposition candidates are out of the race looks like blatant suppression to outsiders. Never mind who these candidates are and why they are not being allowed to run, their exclusion has also added to a sense of fear among Rwandans.

Assassinations, assassination attempts, arrests and extraditions

• General Kayumba Nyamwasa fled to South Africa, told his story to the press and was later injured in an assassination attempt. Maj-Gen Charles Muhire and Lt-Gen Karenzi Karake were both arrested in April. While Brig-Gen Jean Bosco Kazura was arrested heading to the South Africa World Cup in early June.

• Meanwhile, Laurent Nkunda’s Chief of Staff Denis Semadwinga was assassinated at his home in Gisenyi on June 20.

• Leonard Rugambage, the Acting Editor of Umuvugizi newspaper was assassinated in Kigali on June 24.

• In addition, it is reported that a number of Rwandans, including Innocent Karuta, have been arrested in Burundi and extradited to Rwanda.

There is no evidence of government involvement in any of these events. Regardless of who is guilty, these events have helped increase levels of paranoia, suspicion and fear among voters. Despite the denials of the ruling party that “everything will come back to normal” after the election, suspicion is rife that there are deep rifts within the RPF.

Grenade attacks

A number of suspects have been arrested over the Kigali grenade attacks, that began in February 2010. However, the attacks continue. There are several theories about who could be behind the attacks. The one that seems to have gained most credence among analysts is that Nkunda sympathisers are to blame. Laurent Nkunda, the CNDP warlord leader, has been held under house arrest in Rwanda since January, 2009. The most recent grenade attack in Kigali was in May. It was reportedly a nail bomb and not a grenade. 2 people died and 28 were injured in that attack.

The state of the media in Rwanda

Whatever the wrongs of popular tabloid newspapers Umuseso and Umuvugizi, banning them for six months was a mistake. Why not take them to court on individual libel cases from individual stories? The 6 month ban looks draconian, regardless of prior warnings. In addition, it looks calculated, as the ban extends well after the August 9 election date.

From what I understand of the content of both publications, the government/prosecution have a very good case on a story by story basis, so why the six month ban? Was Umuvugizi banned because of alleged ties to Kayumba Nyamwasa? Likewise, was Umuseso banned because it was about to publish an interview with Kayumba Nyamwasa?

The Media High Council didn’t do itself any favours by banning the two newspapers, yet failing – in it’s role as media overseer – to do anything to help them steer a more ethical journalistic path. As one source close to the Media High Council told me,

“So they banned them for six months. Great. But, are they helping them become better. To help them do better journalism? No. They’re not even talking to them. So, can we assume, when the ban’s lifted that they just come back and continue as before, business as usual?”

For further analysis about the current state of play in Rwanda, take a look at Reuters political risks to watch, the observations of the Brussels-based EurAc and the perspective from South Africa in the Daily Maverick.

Come the run up to the election in early August, I hope to have a lot more coverage of events in both pictures and words. I plan to get out of Kigali to see what’s happening in rural Rwanda at election time. I’ll publish everything I find exclusively on kigaliwire.