As you can see from its 4-hour chart, the pair is tracking its rising support. If this support holds then USD/CHF may bounce back and reach its high near 0.9750. A presence of a positive reversal or a hidden bullish divergence in other texts, where the price makes higher lows and the stochastics mark lower or equal lows, also suggests a likely move higher as for my technical analysis. Anyway, I’m placing my limit order at 0.9670 with a target at 0.9750 and a stop loss at 0.9740. Let’s see how this goes. Wish me luck!

Update – 13:01 (Eastern Time): 155.55 level hit as it broke down from the trading range. Next support is @154.97 – 155.03.

Based on my technical analysis, gauging the height of the ascending triangle and adding it to the possible breakout point of 100.00 (major resistance and strong psychological barrier), the USD/JPY can reach a minimum target of 103.80. On the flip side, if all goes wrong, there is a strong support at the 97.00 level. A breach below 97.00 would personally be a reasonable stop loss level. Given these instances, your potential upside at the current level could be more than 550 pips and a 120-pip downside. That’s around a 1:4.5 risk to reward ratio. Not bad at all!

Above all, as long as the 6-month uptrend remains intact, I’m bullish with the USD/JPY.

Last January 12 , Pring Turner Capital Group presented their 2013 secular outlook on bonds, commodities and stock market for the Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco (TSAASF) held at the Golden Gate University. Guest speakers included technical analysis-legend Martin Pring, Joe Turner and Tom Kopas. If you wish to see their presentation, you can download the PDF file by clicking the link below. Good stuff!

Pring Turner Capital Group 2013 Market Outlook *this 94-slide presentation may take a while to download

Happy Easter everyone! I hope all of you have enjoyed this much-needed vacation. Anyway, let’s go back to regular programming with my technical analysis on RFM Corporation of the Philippine stock market.

Concepcion-led RFM Corporation has been under the radar for the last several years. To make the story short, the performance of its shares has been a major disappointment to its investors as it consistently underperformed the PSEi. Recently, however, has gained some fans as it rose from Php1.19/share to start the year to Php2.13/share last Wednesday! Now, one might ask given its recent run, “isn’t already too high to go long?”

Zooming out to its 10-year chart, I was surprised to see a huge inverted head and shoulders chart pattern that it had formed. With an apparent neckline resistance at around Php2.00, a successful move above this level could jockey it higher to just below Php4.00. But first, it has to clear it’s high at Php2.20. Now, given its ‘breakout’ from a pennant pattern over the 6-month time frame, a valid breakout from the bigger inverted kilroy or head and shoulders could be in the works. On the downside, a failure to move past the Php2.20 high could send it back down perhaps to Php1.80.

Let’s see how this will go over the next couple of days or weeks.

Majority of the companies listed in the Philippine stock market have more or less made an upward move already. So I asked myself a question, “If I am to invest now, where will I place my money?” Obviously I scanned through the charts of several stocks and I still found quite a handful. One of them is the Philodrill Corporation or OV.

Well from my technical analysis, OV looks to be on a verge of another steep up move as it sits on a beautifully drawn symmetrical triangle. OV could even be coming from a tall bullish pennant pattern upon zooming out its chart. In any case, a breakout from the chart patterns could send it all the way to Php 0.080/share ( as gauged by the height of the ‘pole’). On the flip side, a failure to move past Php 0.055 or a move below Php 0.50 could pull it back to Php 0.040.

If you’re retiring and looking to invest, you may be wondering whether to invest directly or indirectly. Here are some facts to help you make your decision.

Getting to the point — direct investment
When choosing who to invest in, you should read the financial press regularly. Direct investment means that you buy shares directly in a single company, so you should read about the company, especially the prospectus if it’s offering new shares. Be on the lookout for past developments or incidents that have influenced its performance. For instance, if a car company has made headlines more than once for faulty components, you’d probably want to invest in something else.

Although your first thought probably is to invest in companies on the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ or other major stock exchanges, be open minded when investing directly. Countries like Egypt and the UAE have weathered the international financial crisis better than many others. Economic reforms in Egypt and supervision of the banks have helped the country fare better, while favorable oil prices have buoyed the UAE economy and the Dubai real estate sector is also making a recovery. You may consider companies in these sectors or which are listed on these stock exchanges.

Don’t just go by the gains you wish to make, though. Consider too the level of risk you’re prepared to take on (your investor profile). Are you a prudent investor or a dynamic one? Different types of investment carry different levels of risk. Dynamic investors take on more risks, but are also rewarded with higher returns on their investment.

Remember that investing in shares is a long-term project. At least, it is if you want to make good on your investment. Buying and selling shares quickly can make you lots of money in a short space of time, but the charges for buying and selling can eat the profits up.

Do you really need to be so direct?

If you want to reduce the risk slightly, rather than speculating directly on the stock exchange, you may opt for an indirect investment, such as a collective investment scheme. A unit trust is one worth considering, since they spread the risk by investing in different companies. You can also increase your investment, if you wish to, at your own pace by buying units.

Don’t forget to check out the investment options that your bank offers. Banks normally offer investment amongst their personal finance products and services, such as global investment funds. They can manage the investment based on your investor profile, as well as advise you on your investment.

Investing your savings is a serious business… exciting, but serious. You should do plenty or research, consider what you hope to achieve from your investment and how much you’re willing to risk to achieve it. Then you’re in a good position to proceed with your investment and enjoy the fruits of your money’s labors. Happy investing!

The business challenge was getting water from the top of a mountain, to the village down below. Anyone to do that would be compensated for their work.

One friend took the traditional route to solve the problem.
He worked hard.
He carried bucket after bucket, made trip after trip, and earned his keep.

So he started working harder.
He worked longer hours.
He used larger buckets.
And he earned more money as a result.

The other friend, after also taking the traditional approach for a while, decided to stop and think about how he could be more effective.

He decided to build a pipeline.
His work took much longer. His income reduced greatly, as much of his time was spent building this pipeline. (Which wasn’t bringing any water, so far, to the village. And thus, wasn’t earning him any income.)

Everyone called him crazy. Even his friend with the buckets.
Two years later, the pipeline started to work. Water started to flow. And so did his income.
He was able to stop working, but have money coming in to him every day.

While his friend with the buckets, was stuck with his job… and stuck with no income if he stopped working.

This metaphor describes the traditional 9-to-5 employee, versus the entrepreneur that builds a system which can generate passive income.

As you can see from the pair’s daily chart above, it appears the it could indeed sustain its recent rally and even move into greater heights. From March until November 2011, the forex pair had formed what seems to be a cup and handle chart pattern (one with a rather sharp or pointed cup) which it broke last December as for my technical analysis. The pair’s upward momentum looks to have slowed a bit, causing it to make a “return move” back to the pattern’s neckline. Presently, the pair is trading right smack at the neckline just above 0.9250. This level could now act as a support and a spring board to push it back up. Notice also that there is a presence of a hidden bullish divergence where the price makes higher lows and the stochastics register lower lows. This plus the fact that it is trading at an oversold condition could indicate a pick up in prices at least in the near term.

If indeed the USD’s price picks up against the swissy, the pair could reach parity again (could hit the psychological 1.000 level). A break above it could send it higher towards a target of 1.1500 as gauged by projecting the height of the pattern from the point of breakout. On the sour note, a fall below the neckline could send the pair to the 0.9000 marker.

From my technical analysis, GERI looks to have been forming a double bottom chart pattern as you can see in its daily chart above. Consequently, its trading volume over the same time period also shows a similar pattern which is very typical of a major move that is about to happen soon. In any case, a critical resistance at PHP2.40 needs to be taken out. A break above this level could send GERI to at least PHP2.80 (gauged by projecting the height of the chart pattern from the point of possible breakout). A fall below PHP2.20, on the one hand, could pull it down to PHP2.0.

Given its present set-up, GERI looks to be ripe for a ‘breakout’ in the days to come. Let’s see if this will happen.

Where: Sunlife Training Center, 7/F ACE Bldg, Rada cor Dela Rosa St., Makati City

                                        Speakers and Topics:

                    “Philippine Business Trends and Outlook for 2012″

-Ms. Cora Guidote, Vice President, SM Investments Corporation

                    “Philippine Business Trends and Outlook for 2012″

-Ms. Cora Guidote, Vice President, SM Investments Corporation

                    “Philippine Stock Market Outlook for 2012″

-Mr. Gus Cosio, President, First Metro Asset Management Inc.

                    “Philippine Economic Outlook for 2012″

-Prof. Ben Diokno, UP School of Economics

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In my technical analysis, LC’s 5.7% gain today gave its stock chart a sexier look. This move drew clearer the possible handle of what could be a 5-month cup and handle chart pattern. If you look at the picture above, a breakout from the cup and handle could bring LC to new highs. With the MACD bound for a bullish crossover and the price slowly ascending above the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, a breakout is more likely to happen. Once the 1.82 all-time high or the cup and handle neckline is breached, we could get a minimum target price of PHP2.30. This I got by adding the size of the cup to the possible breakout point. However, there could be some selling pressure at the PHP2.00 psychological level. On the downside, PHP1.54 is the immediate support. If that breaks, the next support could be the 1-year uptrend.

As can be seen in its chart above, HLCM has been consolidating in what appears to be a rounding bottom chart pattern as for my technical analysis. Today, it attempted to move above PHP 10.00. Some selling pressure, however, was met when it hit a resistance at its former lows and at its downtrend line. Given this, HLCM could first step down and correct before gathering enough momentum to eventually move above PHP 10.00. HLCM’s formation then could shift from a rounding bottom into possibly a cup and handle. Either way, a breach of the said resistance could send it at least towards PHP 12.00 (gauged by projecting the height of the pattern from the point of possible breakout). Such could potentially give one a handsome 20% return in the short run.

Now given its movement during the second half of 2011, it appears that OV could still go much higher. As you can see from its weekly chart above, OV has consolidated within an ascending triangle formation. During this time, its trading volume has noticeably declined. This divergence between consolidating prices and declining volume, I must say, is a characteristic of a potential upside breakout in the horizon for this chart pattern. Should OV breaks the heavy resistance at PHP 0.023, it could jet all the way up and revisit its all-time high at PHP 0.031. But before jumping in and going long, it is best to wait for a significant move above PHP 0.023 which is accompanied by a spike in volume. A stop loss trigger then could be placed around PHP 0.020 in case my technical analysis does not go our way.