The day started with a University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index coming in higher than November’s 56.8 with 59.7, even higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 59.1 Consumers director Joanne Hsu wrote today “Declines in short-run inflation expectations were visible across the distribution of age, income, education, as well as political party identification.” Hsu added “At 2.9%, long run inflation expectations have stayed within the narrow, albeit elevated, 2.9-3.1% range for 16 of the last 17 months. While the sizable decline in short-run inflation expectations may be welcome news, consumers continued to exhibit substantial uncertainty over the future path of prices.”

Earlier in the week, consumer confidence beat expectations again. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 108.3 in December from 101.4 in November, the highest reading since April. “Inflation expectations retreated in December to their lowest level since September 2021, with recent declines in gas prices a major impetus. Vacation intentions improved but plans to purchase homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further,” Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. This shift in consumers’ preference from big-ticket items to services will continue in 2023, as will headwinds from inflation and interest rate hikes,” Franco added.

Today the markets fell early, only to end stronger after a hot PCE inflation report. The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.7% year to date, hotter than a 4.6% estimate; the monthly rise came in as expected at 0.2%.

The markets also got a 9 week low in the AAII survey. Conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors, the report came in more bearish than anytime in the last nine months. “Above-average market returns have often followed unusually low levels of optimism, while below-average market returns have often followed unusually high levels of optimism,” AAII said.

The current Housing Recession is manifesting itself in new home starts (down) and builder confidence (down). But the last date is also existing home starts (also down). “We’re witnessing a housing recession in terms of declining home sales and home building,” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, recently told news.

Yun noted the price of homes is not in a recession. Home prices rose, YTD in the month of July, by 10.8% to a median price of $403,800. But less homes are selling. They fell 5.9% from June to July. Year to date, the sales of home in July are down 20.2% but the price of homes is up 10.8%“It’s not a recession in home prices,” Yun added. “Inventory remains tight and prices continue to rise nationally with nearly 40% of homes still commanding the full list price….Prices are still rising in nearly all markets across the country … and inventory is improving slightly, but not greatly so,” Yun further told news.

“Buyers should expect a little better price negotiation possibility,” Yun said. “Last year, they were at the mercy of whatever sellers were asking … and there were multiple offers. Buyers may not face that now…. Sellers need to be realistic about the changing market,” Yun said. “They cannot expect to simply list their home at a high price and easily find a buyer. “Too many buyers chasing after too few properties — those days are over,” he said. At the same time, homes are still selling quickly.”

“Homeowners are in a very comfortable position financially, in terms of their housing wealth. I am seeing homebuyers cancel a contract if their payment is just a little bit higher than what they expected — I’m talking about $100,” said Al Bingham, a mortgage loan officer with Momentum Loans in Sandy, Utah. “Homebuyers are very cautious right now.”

The Fed is not going to pivot away from interest spikes, nor leave inflation at 8%, Wall Street realized on Monday. The same day, 18% inflation in January was projected by Citi economists. Also Treasury yields on Monday rose. The 30-year Treasury bond moved up to 3.238% and the 10 year not to 2.996%.

What was the reaction to Monday’s drop? “When you see the market right now dropping down like this, this is the market saying the Fed has to be more aggressive to slow the economy down further” if they want to bring inflation back down, said Robert Cantwell, portfolio manager at Upholdings told news after Monday’s correction.

“Performance around bear market rallies and the end of Fed hiking cycles look similar, and ultimately the path of both inflation and growth will determine the market’s trajectory through year-end,” David Kostin, Goldman’s head of U.S. equity strategy, wrote to clients last Friday.

On August 17, 2022, John Burns Real Estate Consulting indicated that U.S. is experiencing a massive growth of Homebuilder cancellation rates. Those rates are doubled since April. In April the number stood at 8% cancellation. But in July 2022 is surged to 17.6%. On a yearly basis, the number is significant, compared to a mere 7.5% in July 2021. The biggest cancellations were reported in the Southwest at 25% and Texas at 27%. But “California buyers can pretty much walk from the closing table and get a refund,” said Jody Kahn, senior vice president of research at JBREC, told news. “Also, builders have a lot of flexibility on what they require for cash deposits and they can choose to be more or less lenient in refunding.”

What exactly is happening? “The majority of the time the sellers are losing more than the buyers when the cancellations occur,” said Heather Kruayai, a Redfin agent to news. “The buyers are cancelling within their due diligence period and are able to retain the binder deposit. The sellers are therefore losing time on the market as they have to change the status of their listing from active to contingent accepting backups.”

This week, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon told news that everyone is watching the numbers. “People are really price-focused now, regardless of income level. And the longer this lasts, the more that’s going to be the case.” Walmart this week beat on earnings as did Home Depot.

Today’s housing recession data is the latest in a series of weakening data. First time home buyers from 40% of the monthly data traditionally to just 29% of buyers in July. First-time buyers represented just 29% of buyers in July. Sales dropped at all market levels. Sales of homes priced between $100,000 and $250,000 fell by 31% YTD; homes priced $750,000 and $1 million fell 8% YTD; and homes priced about $1 million fell 13%. “In terms of economic impact we are surely in a housing recession because builders are not building,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “However, are homeowners in a recession? Absolutely not. Homeowners are still very comfortable financially.”

Price cuts are happening as well. “The median home sales price continued to climb, but at a slower pace for the fifth consecutive month, shining a light on how downshifting buyer demand is moving the housing market back toward a more normal pace of activity,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “A look at active inventory trends shows that home listings were nearly twice as likely to have had a price cut in July 2022 compared to one year ago.”

Earlier this week, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index slid 6 points in August to 49. “Tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and persistently elevated construction costs have brought on a housing recession,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz at the time.

The latest jobless claims release this week comes as the July FOMC Minutes notes were released. During the July meeting, Fed governors said there is a “tentative signs of a softening outlook for the labor market”. Days earlier, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman told news “My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way.”

The day also featured Kohl’s cutting year end guidance. Chief Executive Officer Michelle Gass said in a statement that the company is modifying operations “to account for a softer demand outlook.”

How is labor being impacted by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes? “Unfortunately, what’s good for the American worker is bad for the Fed’s attempt to being inflation back down to 2% and this will complicate their job and cause them to raise rates higher and for longer than many people currently expect,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Investor Alliance.

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the PPI. But the number was all relative. First it was the first monthly decrease since April 2020. It was also the biggest decline YTD since October 2021. Moreover, it was also below Dow Jones expectations of an increase, not decline, of 0.2%. But because the drop this month came from energy, falling 9%, with energy delivering 80% of the decline, was there any sizable decline if you exclude energy from today’s data? No. The Core PPI removing food, energy and trade services actually rose month to date at 0.2%.

LALATE is predicting a series of 75 basis point increases by the Federal Reserve starting in September until the CPI drops below at least 6 to 7%. Three Fed governors in the last 2 weeks have signaled they are staying at 75 basis point until inflation is down substantially and remains down. A PPI drop of 0.5% is not a substantial decline. “Cooling prices paid by producers portend a further cooling for consumer prices, as producer prices are further up the inflation pipelines,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, to news today. “We expect producer prices to ease as supply chains improve. It could take up to three months for improved supply chains to affect prices for the end consumer.”

In spring 2021, LALATE was the only financial news network to predict inflation would go to 8% and stay there into 2022. Then, in February this year , LALATE was the first to predict a pervasive recession in 2023. The bond market has remained captivated by a further inverted yield curve, indicative of a recession. That 2 & 10 year treasury notes became more inverted when the unemployment rate last week was released; it posted the best unemployment number since the 1960s and seemingly gave support for further fed tightening this fall.

In recent weeks, LALATE has predicted the weekly jobless claims number to rise from 200,000 to 230,000, and from 230,000 to 260,000. Those moves have occurred. Today the Labor Department reported weekly jobless claims totaled 262,000 for the week ended Aug. 6, slightly higher than LALATE’s prediction for another 260,000 week. Meantime continuing claims rose slightly from 8,000 to 1.43 million.

The June CPI came in at 8.5%, slightly lower than May’s 8.6% and June’s 6.1%. The Dow was looking for an 8.7% print today. “The deceleration in the Consumer Price Index for July is likely a big relief for the Federal Reserve, especially since the Fed insisted that inflation was transitory, which was incorrect. … If we continue to see declining inflation prints, the Federal Reserve may start to slow the pace of monetary tightening,” said Nancy Davis, founder of Quadratic Capital Management.

LALATE disagrees. And apparently so do bond traders. Currently the 2 and 10 year notes remain inverted, and that inversion grew even more last week. Inversion is an indicator of a recession. “I don’t see anything that will reduce the inflation rate. There are some things that might reduce prescription drug prices and maybe a couple of other things,” Bianco Research president told news a day earlier “But will that bring down CPI? Will that bring down core CPI to a point where we can actually start pricing that in? No, I don’t think so.”

Core numbers in some cases tracked higher or were offsets. Month to date, energy was down 4.6%, gasoline fell 7.7%, but shelter was up 0.5% along with food up by 1.1%. Shelter, which covers rent, remains a big problem; at thirty percent of the CPI, shelter is rising 5.7% year to date.

LALATE for two months predicted the Fed’s next September rate increase will be 75 basis. A week ago, less than 30% of Dow analyst agreed. Today the consensus is in agreement. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Saturday she endorses. “My view is that similarly sized increases should be on the table until we see inflation declining in a consistent, meaningful, and lasting way”. Today’s drop of the CPI was not viewed as meaningful, which is more broadly understood be closer to the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2%.

Further misses amplified last week. Intel’s reported a steep drop of 22% of revenue. Even worse, it posted a $454 million net loss, versus a profit of $5 billion last year. However the same day delivered beats by Roku, Amazon, Apple on either top (revenue), bottom (earnings), or both.

The White House has been under fire by trying to redefine the term “recession”, which only carries one definition: two negative quarters of GDP growth. “Let me just give you what the facts are in terms of the state of the economy,” Biden said last week. “Number one, we have a record job market, and record unemployment of 3.6%, and businesses are investing in America at record rate… that doesn’t sound like a recession to me.” The President added “There’s gonna be a lot of chatter today on Wall Street and among pundits about whether we are in a recession,” Biden said in his remarks. “But if you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well.”

Today the watched 2-year/10-year yield curve remain inverted. Inversion is often an indication of a pending recession. The inversion continues even as the 2-year yield slid to 2.89%. “As demand slows and supply bottlenecks improve, we should expect a corresponding slowdown in inflation during the back half of this year. The Fed will likely respond with smaller rate increases in the coming meetings,” LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said in a note.

New home sales and existing home sales were done for the month of June. And while prices are still up year to date, price rises are cooling. But now, mortgage rates and softening as well.
Last week, mortgage rates, once 3% last year, and high as 6% earlier this year, fell dramatically. In fact, the 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 5.22% on Thursday from 5.54% on Wednesday. By Friday, Mortgage News Daily reported the rate dropped to even 5.13%.

The reaction has been mixed. “The housing market seems to be settling into an equilibrium now that demand has leveled off,” Redfin’s chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, said in a release. “We may still be in for some surprises when it comes to inflation and rate hikes from the Fed, but for now an ease in mortgage rates has brought some relief to buyers who were reeling from last month’s rate spike.”

Today the markets learned that home prices are higher than last year but have fallen from a 19.3% rise to a 17.3% rise. “The slowdown was broad-based among the top 50 markets at the metro level, with some areas experiencing even more pronounced cooling,” said Ben Graboske, president of Black Knight Data & Analytics. “In fact, 25% of major U.S. markets saw growth slow by three percentage points in June, with four decelerating by four or more points in that month alone…With a national shortage of more than 700,000 listings, it would take more than a year of such record increases for inventory levels to fully normalize,” said Graboske.

Inflation is still rising, we learned Friday when the PCE (personal consumption expenditures price index) continued to go higher. The index rose 6.8% year to date in the month of June. That is the biggest rise since January 1982. Even the core PCE removing food and energy rose 4.8% YTD.

Meantime the employment cost index slightly beat the 1.1% estimate but came in 1.3%, down from the first quarter at 1.4% rise. “The rest of the economy might be slowing down, but wages are speeding up,” said Nick Bunker, economic research director at job placement site Indeed, wrote. “Competition for workers remains fierce as employers have to keep bidding up wages for new hires. These red-hot wage growth statistics may fade in the near term, but there’s a long way for them to drop.”

What was the reaction? “A 1.6% wage gain for the second quarter is not strong, said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.“Wage gains at this pace are far too high for the Fed, because they would require implausible rapid productivity growth in order to be consistent with the inflation target in the medium-term,” Shepherdson wrote. “Core inflation is a better predictor of inflation going forward, headline inflation tends to be volatile. So, in ordinary times, you look through volatile moves in commodities”.

Shepherdson  also told news  “The problem with the current situation is that if you have a sustained period of supply shocks, those can actually start to undermine or to work on de-anchoring inflation expectations. The public doesn’t distinguish between core and headline inflation in their thinking.”

Homes are still increasing in prices but slower. And the month of May 2022, released today, was a second slower month of growth. Home prices in April rose YTD at 20.6%, which was lower than March. Today May came in at 19.7%, now the second lower consecutive month according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index.

“Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at or above the 98th percentile historically,” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in a news statement “We’ve noted previously that mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that was ongoing as our May data were gathered. Accordingly, a more-challenging macroeconomic environment may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer,” he added.

What was the reaction to today’s news ? “In the short-term, transactions are feeling the pressure, with sales of existing homes down for five consecutive months. In addition, with less competition, houses that would have flown off the market within hours last year are lingering,” said George Ratiu, manager of economic research at Realtor.com. “The share of homes seeing price cuts has doubled from a year ago, as motivated homeowners want to close a deal before more buyers drop out of the market.”

“Earnings Recession,” a term by LALATE used to describe the impact recessionary pressures have on corporate earnings, continued today. While McDonalds and Coca Cola beat today, Alphabet missed on top and bottom. First, the company missed on bottom, posting $1.21 vs $1.28 EPS expected, according to Refinitiv. Then it missed on top, posting $69.69 billion vs $69.9 billion expected, according to Refinitiv.

The news was not much better over at Microsoft. It missed on bottom, posting EPS $2.23 per share, adjusted, vs. $2.29 per share projected according to Refinitiv. And it missed on top, delivering $51.87 billion, vs. $52.44 billion projected, according to Refinitiv.

Over at Chipotle, the news was not anymore tasty. The company missed on top, posting Revenue: $2.21 billion vs. $2.24 billion expected, according to Refinitiv.

While recessionary pressures are present, inflation was credited by Walmart for its downward guidance the day before. “The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars,” CEO Doug McMillon said in a news release last night.

Wells Fargo analysts said the following about the markets last week. “Given persistent inflation pressures globally that continue to act as a headwind, along with associated monetary tightening aimed at reining those inflation pressures in, the global economic outlook continues to dim. In particular, this month has seen a significant downgrade for our global GDP growth forecast for 2023. In addition to economic recession in the United States next year, we expect most foreign economies will face a combination of either slower growth, economic stagnation or potentially economic recession as well.”

Late Monday, Walmart shocked the Street for the second time since May when the company then guided downward. This time Walmart blamed inflation, directly, and slashed projections for the rest of the year. Walmart (WMT) in after hours trading is down nearly 10% falling $13. Amazon (AMZ) is currently down 5% after hours along with other retailers.

The WMT announcement tonight was in stark contrast to guidance in May for similar retailers who did not report inflation pressure. “The increasing levels of food and fuel inflation are affecting how customers spend, and while we’ve made good progress clearing hardline categories, apparel in Walmart U.S. is requiring more markdown dollars,” CEO Doug McMillon said in a news release.

Second quarter earnings from Walmart are not set to be released until August 16. However, back in June the earning guidance from Walmart and Target started ostensibly the bear market of the year. “We thought it was prudent for us to be decisive, act quickly, get out in front of this, address and optimize our inventory in the second quarter — take those actions necessary to remove the excess inventory and set ourselves up to continue to be guest relevant with our assortment,” Target CEO Brian Cornell said in June.

On Wednesday, at 2:00 p.m. the FOMC statement will be released; at 2:30 p.m. Fed Chair Jerome Powell press briefing will address the latest Fed decision. That is expected to be a 75 basis point increase to reduce inflation. Prior Fed rate increases have not yet worked with inflation still not peaking.

The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a massive 50 basis point increase, the first in 11 years, reducing deposits to zero. deposit rate to zero. Traders had expected a smaller hike of 25 basis points. The ECB like the Fed has an inflation target of 2%. They noted today that this rise “will support the return of inflation to the Governing Council’s medium-term target by strengthening the anchoring of inflation expectations and by ensuring that demand conditions adjust to deliver its inflation target in the medium term.”

The ECB delivered further guidance. “The Governing Council judged that it is appropriate to take a larger first step on its policy rate normalisation path than signalled at its previous meeting,” the ECB said. Later in the day ECB President Christine Lagarde further detailed the decision to news “Inflation continues to be undesirably high and is expected to remain above our target for some time. The latest data indicate a slowdown in growth, clouding the outlook for the second half of 2022 and beyond.”

Analysts reaction followed thereafter. “For the first time since 2011, the Bank has hiked interest rates and did so with a bang. Hiking rates by 50 basis points and softening forward guidance shows that the ECB thinks the window for a series of rate hikes is closing quickly”, remarked Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Germany.

The latest labor numbers are no surprise. Jobless claims 30 days ago were roughly 180,000, then surging to 200,000. LALATE’s prediction of 230,000 was matched the following week with claims staying at 230,000 to 240,000 for roughly 30 days. But after the market continued to call those levels a “strong labor market”, LALATE predicted today’s number would pass 250,000 and cause analysts to admit a weakening has happened. Both occurred Thursday.

Today’s initial claims totaled 251,000 for the week ended July 16, up 7,000 from the week before. This is weakest number since mid November, according to Labor Department data revealed today. Continuing claims grew to 1.384 million; that level was last seen in April.

Yesterday, Wells Fargo said the following about labor. “The near-term momentum in the labor market remains intact. Nonfarm payrolls put up another robust gain in June, increasing by 372K, and employment growth was once again broad-based across industries. However, beneath the surface there are some tentative signs that the labor market is cooling.” The bank added “Wage growth is slowing, initial jobless claims have ticked higher and job openings appear to have peaked. In addition, the household survey measure of employment shows momentum slowing more than the establishment survey. With employment levels finally catching up with demand, we look for hiring to slow steadily over the second half of the year. As we look to 2023, we think an outright decline in employment will commence in late Q1/early Q2 as the economy slips into a mild recession.”

In related news, Crypto startup Blockchain.com is laying off 25% of its staff. Of those, 26% are from the United States.

Today bond yields fell. But despite that the curve remained inverted. Despite falling to 3.148%A today, the 2-year Treasury note still remain inverted with the 10 year yield curve. A 2-year/10-year yield curve inverted is often an indicator of a recessionary pressures.

Earnings recessions were not as present today. Netflix (NFLX) rose 6.1% before the market opened after beating on earnings, missing on revenue.

But banks gave new recession guidance today. Wells Fargo now seeks a “mild recession” in the first quarter of 2023. Jay Bryson, the bank’s Chief Economist, wrote today that “Consumers have held the line pretty well in terms of spending. But they’ve brought down their savings rates and they’ve increased credit card debt. Those things aren’t sustainable in the long run.”

Bryson added “We have pulled forward our forecast for labor market cooling, in line with our expectation that the U.S. economy will slip into recession starting in Q1-2023. We look for average monthly payroll gains to slow to 235K in Q3 and 133K in Q4, down from 375K in Q2. We think an outright decline in employment will commence in late Q1/early Q2 of next year, with the unemployment rate eventually peaking around 5% in late 2023/early 2024.”

Bank America also is predicting a mild recession for Q42022.

In a statement to news, Volvo claimed that for itself chip supply chain disruption has not only eased but is gone. In fact business is “back at fully supply,” CEO Jim Rowan told news. “We had guided in the first quarter we were affected by one specific semiconductor which hampered production across most of our range,” Rowan added. “We had forecasted by and large we would be through that by the end of the second quarter, and that’s what we’ve seen. We are through those semiconductor issues.”

Supply chain disruption and the rising price of International Brent Crude initially drove up inflation. And while the Federal Reserve has battled inflation with interest rate spikes, that measure is generally not perceived to ease rising prices of crude nor supply chain disruption.

The next Federal Reserve FOMC July 2022 meeting is expected to bring a 75 or 100 basis point increase, with more analysts now predicting 75. Part of that anticipation has bled into the crypto industry with Bitcoin rallying today over $24,000 a coin. “This isn’t necessarily the end of the crypto bear market, but a relief rally for Bitcoin is long overdue,” said Antoni Trenchev, CEO of crypto lender Nexo, told news. “Bitcoin is beginning to find its feet after a shaky month, and the next week will be telling,” he added.

Housing Market Crash 2022 worries continue to grow as today brought the third consecutive day of weakening market data. Homes on the market rose 2.4% YTD to 1.2 million. “It is clearly due to the plunging affordability,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “We have never seen mortgage rates shoot up this fast at this magnitude. Even people who want to buy, they are priced out.”

Buyers are showing up in lower numbers due to affordability, said analysts today. “Based on trends at this stage in the housing and business cycle, I expect affordability to be the bigger driver than availability moving forward,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist with Realtor.com. “Already, we see that affordable areas in the Northeast and Midwest top the Realtor.com June hottest housing markets, as home shoppers continue to leverage workplace flexibility in looking for ways to reduce their housing costs.” Moreover, “This is a head-scratching number, given slower sales,” said Yun. “People are trying to take advantage of their interest rate lock. That may explain why the days on the market are so swift.”

Meantime week to week data revealed further softening in mortgage demand which fell to a 22 year low. Today’s data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index showed a 6% drop. “Purchase activity declined for both conventional and government loans as the weakening economic outlook, high inflation and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand,” said Joel Kan, an economist for the MBA.

What did analysts note? “This is especially true next week as markets digest the newest Fed policy announcement next Wednesday, but Thursday’s policy announcement from the European Central Bank could also cause enough of a stir to impact U.S. rates,” noted Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily.

On Wednesday, the CPI for the month of June 2022 shocked the markets. The prior month posted a 8.6% read, the June projection was 8.8% but it came in at a massive lift of 9.1%. On Thursday, the PPI posted its biggest lift in months. Again on the wholesale said, inflation headed higher, month to date.

Then on Friday, June retail sales moved up higher compared to May. The lift was 1%. While inflation may not have peaked, recession has yet to manifest itself equally among corporate earnings. “Every data point matters and also what companies are saying. Next week… it’s a much broader picture in terms of earnings and the economy,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial. “If there are negative revisions and mounting concerns from the guidance, I think then you are going to see questions as to how the Fed is going to interpret that…The other point is whether or not the market can build off today’s rally.”

The inflation data from last week is prompted a web of shifts on predicting the Federal Reserve’s July move. Analysts put it at nearly 90% on Wednesday of a 100 basis lift, but by week end dropped that number. Some think the guessing of 75 versus 100 has been too unfounded. “It really was a great study in mob psychology. We went into the week with a 92% chance it was a 75 basis point hike, and we exited Wednesday with an 82% chance it was going to be 100 basis points,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities. “We can shift to earnings and that will take up all the oxygen in the room. There’s a possibility this is where the market could make some traction,” said Hogan. “We haven’t really heard from anybody but big banks. There’s a chance that expectations are so low, and the narrative around guidance is that it’s going to have to come down. If it doesn’t, there’s a chance we’ll see a positive reaction to that.”

Is there a Housing Market Crash? Not yet. But the recessionary pressures caused by interest rate hikes have taken their pressure on housing numbers. June’s building permits were 1.8 million in April, 1.7 m in May, and were expected to come in south of 1.7 m; today’s numbers were less than 1.7 million but were a bit higher than expectations. were slightly above expectations, coming in at less than 1.7 million, but fell from May and are down from about 1.8 million in April.

Analysts reaction to the news was mixed. Pantheon Macro chief economist Ian Shepherdson said “Home builders need to adjust rapidly to a world with fewer buyers and much more competition from private sellers of existing homes, whose listings jumped by a third in the three months to May—with much more coming” Shepherdson added “In short, housing construction is nowhere near the bottom.”

Next Monday the National Association of Home Builders reported builder confidence for the month of June. It was the second biggest monthly drop since the start of the pandemic. On Wednesday, the third housing data is released: existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors. Meantime next week S&P delivers the June figures on home prices.

LALATE over the last eight weeks has obtained statements via its viewers from nearly one dozen congressional staffers for Democrat Senators (Warren, Wyden, Schumer, Coons, Casey, Sanders) and House members (Omar, Jayapal, AOC, Pelosi) confirming that monthly stimulus checks will be inserted. After nearly eight months of LALATE’s viewers advocating for stimulus check insertion, reports tonight signal the inclusion will be there, and just as robust as viewers for LALATE have been told since the summer.

The Fourth Stimulus checks will be $2,000 the first month, one thousand per month thereafter, and will run for six months, for individuals 18 years or older, staffers of both Senate and House Congressional leaders separately tell over a dozen viewers for LALATE. Pelosi’s staff told an LALATE viewer tonight that the Speaker urged a higher monthly ($1400) as did Senators Sanders and Warren during the negotiations.

Last week, LALATE reported the negotiations were near complete. LALATE has learned the provision will be debuted / led by Reps Omar, Jayapal, AOC and Pelosi and debuted on the House side, for a House vote first. The news comes after LALATE exclusively reported a $107B provision for the Judiciary was ruled to be excluded by the Senate Parliamentarian last week, freeing up more money to spend on other issues like potentially said MSCs.

A monthly fourth stimulus check, referred to on LALATE as an “MSC”, has been the topic of discussion by Congressional leaders since the First Stimulus Package of 2020. In fall 2020, the youtube channel of LALATE launched a social media campaign called CR4Stimulus, advocating for the inclusion of a stimulus check in the then Continuing Resolution Budget Bill. That inclusion happened, and was dubbed the Second Stimulus Check, valued at $600. In January 2021, LALATE’s 136 million views had been advocating for a check, telephoning Congressional staffers and advocating for the inclusion of a monthly stimulus check in what is now often dubbed the Fourth Stimulus Package, aka the Budget Reconciliation Bill.

A monthly fourth stimulus check, referred to on LALATE as an “MSC”, has been the topic of discussion by Congressional leaders since the First Stimulus Package of 2020. But tonight, Congressional staffers are reporting that is nearly completion for the latest $3.5T Congressional Reconciliation Bill.

With 136 million views, LALATE viewers over the last two months have been telephoning Congressional staffers and advocating for the inclusion of a monthly stimulus check. And tonight, the situation has progressed swiftly.

Late tonight, one viewer told LALATE “I called [Speaker of the House] Nancy Pelosi’s office and told her secretary why I needed a fourth stimulus check and her staff told me that there would be a fourth in the amount for $2,000 the first month and a $1,000 thereafter 6 to 12 months and they are almost done negotiating it”.

The comment is consistent with what Congressional offices of leading Senate and House democrats have been telling LALATE viewers over the last 10 days. In fact, a staffer for Senator Bob Casey told a viewer last week that the price tag negotiations were underway among Democrats and nearly complete.

LALATE exclusively reported the first mention of MSCs eight week ago when staffers for Senator Chris Coons told an LALATE viewer that the Democrat senator will propose a fourth stimulus check, monthly. Then three weeks ago and continuing to this week, staffers for Senator Bernie Sanders told dozen of viewers that Sanders will pursue a MSC provision, reportedly 3 to 6 months at some amount between $1000 to $1400.

Last week, staffers for Senators Ron Wyden and Chuck Schumer confirmed an MSC under negotiations for Reconciliation inclusion. Also last week a staffer for Senator Elizabeth Warren indicated that Warren is proposing $1400-2,000 for six to twelve months. Then, a staffer for Representative Pramila Jayapal confirmed to another LALATE viewer that Jayapal is pursuing MSC inclusion. And a staffer for Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also confirmed AOC is proposing House inclusion of $1,000 per month after the first month of $2,000, to run for 12 months.

On Evenings LALATE (5 PM PST / 8 PM EST), LALATE in a world exclusive revealed Senator Bernie Sanders’ plan to roll out Monthly Fourth Stimulus Checks in the Fourth Stimulus Reconciliation Bill, if public support for the proposal is there. Sanders is the Chairman of the United States Senate Committee on the Budget.

The Senator’s staffer spoke exclusively to an LALATE volunteer and revealed the price tag, the amounts, and the duration. The Senator’s staffer revealed that Sanders is one of several legislators considering a monthly reoccurring Fourth Stimulus Check plan. Sanders is considering checks of an amount somewhere between $1,000 to $1,400 a month. The payment would be monthly. The checks would run a duration between three to six months.

LALATE can also exclusively report that another viewer was told by Senator Chris Coons’ office that Coons seeks to introduce a monthly stimulus check, an amount unstated. Previously stimulus checks have been paid to single individuals annual income $75,000 or less, married couples $150,000, and up to a family of four.

Support for a monthly stimulus check among both House and Senate side has been vocal in recent days and weeks. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Sanders, and Ron Wyden have written the President requesting a monthly Fourth Stimulus Check. Meantime House members have written the President letters stating their desire for monthly stimulus checks of $2,000 per month in the Budget Recon.

Elsewhere a widely supported House bill introduced weeks ago would pay $1,000 a month after an initial month of $2,000, for a duration lastly the remainder of the pandemic plus one year. Also, members of the House Ways and Means Committee, responsible for writing stimulus checks and unemployment benefits, have written the President indicating their desire to include fourth stimulus checks, monthly, in the fourth stimulus recon as well.

The Budget Reconciliation or Budget Bill last week easily passed the House for its procedural stage. The Democrats are now preparing for a $3.5 trillion dollar recon substantive vote to determine how to spend the allocation. For now, Sanders is one of many legislators who believe monthly stimulus checks should be included.

The Kentucky Derby 2021 winner results were just revealed after a huge attendance today at Churchill Downs. In 2018 Justify was the favorite and went on to win. Before the famous 2018 race, Baffert praised Justify and thanked God for his career. “I’ve been there with the best horses that God made, and I know what it’s like,” Baffert said. “You can never take anything for granted, you just got to go day by day and get there and hope everything goes your way.”

Baffert admitted in 2018 that often the Derby has unexpected outcomes. “The thing about Kentucky Derby, you have to have the right horse,” Baffert told reporters this week. “It just happens. You can’t force it. You can’t make it happen… Crazy things happen in the Derby,” Baffert said. “With 20 horses, you never know.”
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In reflecting on his career, Baffert that year remarked “I’ve been really fortunate to have some really good horses. Point Given, I thought he couldn’t lose (in 2001). He ran fast, didn’t win. That was so disappointing because I really thought he could win the Triple Crown.”

Baffert is never concerned if a race has rain or not. “A little rain is good for this racetrack but really it doesn’t matter,” Baffert told ESPN in 2018. “I don’t worry about any of that and I don’t worry about anything I can’t change… We have a good enough horse that can win it, but it’s a very competitive race. You’re going to have to have some luck.” For continued coverage in two weeks of the Triple Crown click HERE.

Hideki Matsuyama is the winner of the Masters 2021 in final golf results today. Coming into Sunday’s action he was shocked by his strong showing. “I wouldn’t have believed it,” Matsuyama said through his interpreter. “But I did play well today. And my game plan was carried out, and hopefully, tomorrow I can continue good form.”

How did he remain focuses Saturday? “During the rain delay, I just figured I can’t hit anything worse than that,” Matsuyama said. “And so maybe it relieved some pressure. I don’t know. But I did hit it well coming in.’

Justin Rose had led early in the tournament but could not maintain. “I’ve been playing with the lead the whole week, and obviously, there’s been an hour where Hideki has sort of moved out there in front,” Rose said. “All the guys chasing at 7-under par are all capable of that little run Hideki has had. So, it’s all up for grabs tomorrow.”

Despite the stress, Hideki still kept his calm Sunday. “Being in front of the media is still difficult. It’s not my favorite thing to do,” Matsuyama said through his interpreter. “It’s been a lot less stress for me. I’ve enjoyed this week.”

Tigres vs America 2021 (start time 7:05 pm PST) features two teams with conflicting recent records. America has five wins in their last five games. America is #2 in the table with 31 points, two points out of first. Tigres in turn has three loses, one win and one draw in the last five games. Tigres is #11 in the tables.

Tigres recently fell to Toluca. Tigres drawed with Puebla. Tigres next fell to Matalan. Tigres then fell to Pachuca. Tigres later beat Queretaro. But can Tigres win today? Tigres next faces Juarez in days. Tigres then takes on Pumas. Tigres faces Monterrey. Tigres battles Chivas again.

America in turn has been undefeated in weeks. America beat Leon. America then won over Chivas. America beat Mazatlán. America then won over Necaxa. America later beat a CCL squad. After today, America faces another CCL squad. America faces Cruz. America then takes on Toluca. America later faces Pumas. But can America win today?

For live score results of this and all other Liga MX games today click HERE, and for live tweeting click HERE.

Cruz Azul vs Chivas Guadalajara 2021 (start time 5 pm PST) features Cruz with four wins, one draw, in their last five games. Chivas in turn has three draws, one win and one loss in their last five battles. The game is the latest in Week 14 of the Liga MX.

Cruz is currently first in the table with 33 point ahead of America and Monterrey. But what about Chivas?

Chivas is currently in #15. They are only three points out of last position. Cruz Azul remelt beat Pumas. Cruz Azul then won over Monterrey. Cruz Azul next won over Alta’s. Then Cruz Azul beat Juarez. Since then Cruz Azul won a CCL match. After this Cruz Azul has another CCL match. But in the Liga, Cruz Azul next faces America. Cruz Azul then faces San Luis. Cruz Azul after that takes on Tijuana. But can Cruz Azul win today?

Chivas Guadalajara in turn recently beat Pumas. Chivas Guadalajara then drawed with Queretaro. Chivas Guadalajara then drawed with Mazatlán. Chivas Guadalajara then fell to America, 0-3. Chivas Guadalajara also drawed with Santos. But can Chivas Guadalajara win today? Chivas Guadalajara after today faces Tijuana. Chivas Guadalajara then takes on Monterey. Chivas Guadalajara. Chivas Guadalajara later faces Atlas. Chivas Guadalajara then takes on Tigres.

For live score results of this and all other Liga MX games today click HERE, and for live tweeting click HERE.

The Masters Leaderboard 2021 action (live leaderboard below) heats up from August 8 to 11. The action airs live on ESPN and CBS. Tee times start at 5 am for first round and run through 11 am PST.

In 2018, Patrick Reed won the Master 2018 delivering a shocking and historic week of scores. Reed stayed under 70 coming into Sunday. “I just went out there and just tried to play golf the best I could and tried to stay in the moment and not worry about everything else,” Reed told reporters.

Rickie Fowler tried to cut Reed’s lead but was unable to catch Patrick. “He’s not scared. I think you guys have seen that previous from the Ryder Cups and the way he plays,” said Fowler to reporters. “He won’t back down. I don’t necessarily see him as someone that backs up and will let you come back into the tournament. You have to go catch him.”

Could Jordan Spieth win this weekend? In 2018, Jordan fell apart. “I think I’ve proven to myself and to others that you never give up,” Spieth said after his final round in 2018. “I started the round nine shots back, and I came out with the idea of just playing the golf course and having a lot of fun doing it and try to shoot a low round and finish the tournament strong and see what happens, if something crazy happens.”

That year, Sunday started with Rory McIlroy and Reed in second and first. But in a rare event, Rory fell apart on Sunday. It has happened before for Rory at August on Sundays. “Tough day, but I’ll be back,” McIlroy said. “And hopefully, I’ll be better.” On Saturday he had said “Just a great day. To get myself into the final group and have a chance to win another major … you couldn’t ask for much more out of today.” Of Reed, Rory said “I feel like all the pressure is on him. He’s got to go out and protect that, and he’s got a few guys chasing him that are pretty big-time players. He’s got that to deal with and sleep on tonight.” Going into Sunday Rory said “I can’t imagine there’s going to be much chat out there tomorrow, Not that I have anything against Patrick. We’ve actually got quite a good relationship. But at the end of the day, it’s business, and we’re both trying to do something pretty special.”

Rory’s tee time is 7:42 am PST. And ironically he tees off just before Patrick Reed. Jordan Spieth has the nearly last tee time Thursday. For live leaderboard results all weekend long click HERE.

The CDC Eviction effective tonight now bans some but not all evictions and mortgage foreclosures. Who does it cover and how does it work?

First, it covers residential evictions, not commercial evictions. Second, it bans evictions of homeowners or renters, meaning it covers apartment and house tenants. It does not ban commercial evictions.

Third, it al so prevents residential mortgage foreclosures. Fourth, the coverage is to the end of 2020. Finally, it does not cover everyone. It only covers who would normally fall under a stimulus check of the CARES ACT. It only benefits individuals with annual income under $99,000 or married couples with 2019 income of $198,000 or less.

The relief comes after weeks of LALATE reporting the slowness of the Trump Administration to get rent help by executive order. The order enables to halt upwards of 40 million evictions nationally now, the worse since the great depression.

LALATE notes, however, confusion how a landlord would know a tenant’s income level, or how a tenant would have to prove receipt of a first stimulus check, now if facing eviction in August.

The CDC Order allows states to have more stringent, but not more lenient, restrictions. The Order covers as 34 states that have no protections in place. “President Trump is committed to helping hard-working Americans stay in their homes and combating the spread of the coronavirus,” said Brian Morgenstern, deputy White House press secretary, on the call tonight. “The administration has also made federal funds available to alleviate any economic impact to tenants, landlords and property owners,” Morgenstern said.

Pelosi’s shocking statements came after a week of even more shocking details. The week started with Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and others including the President agreeing to standalone bills for (a) stimulus checks, (b) FPUC unemployment and (c) eviction moratorium. All three issues are effectively agreed upon. So what is strategic for Pelosi’s blocking?

First Stimulus checks’ only issues of contention are dependents (Pelosi at $1200, Trump at $500), and child support (Pelosi would not take out, Trump would). Second, eviction moratorium and mortgage forbearance are agreed upon by both parties as well. Finally, the extension of unemployment benefits called FPUC (which goes on top of UI and PUA that expired in July under Pelosi’ watch while her House was on vacation) is currently at Pelosi offering $600/week and Republicans offering $400/week. A deal at $500/week seems obvious in view of the fact that the current extension of FPUC called LWA will expire in no later than three weeks, FEMA has confirmed.

But today, Pelosi was further under fire for drawing back her House members to pass legislation about the post office. Nearly 300 + democrats from the house and senate wrote Pelosi to do standalone bills about stimulus checks, unemployment and eviction moratorium today. Did she? She did not.

And why not? A reporter asked Pelosi why not, and why she casted aside urging from her party to change course and do standalone bills for (a) stimulus checks, (b) FPUC unemployment and (c) eviction moratorium.

“REPORTER: Mark Meadows … tweeted out a message to Democrats if you really want to help Americans why don’t you pass relief for Small Business, unemployment, along with Postal Service funding. But you said you don’t want to break things down. You said today is focused on the Postal Service …

“PELOSI: … that is right”

“REPORTER: … but are you, what about the members in your party who think maybe a vote on the small Heroes Act, $2 to $2.3 trillion dollars of the Hero’s Bill with a shorter time frame is perhaps a good idea?”

The 80 year old Pelosi then referred to the President’s Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, whom she negotiated with for two weeks, as “what is his name”.

“PELOSI: Well let me you listened some things that “What is His Name” put forth. He didn’t say anything about schools. He didn’t say anything crushing the virus. He didn’t say anything about people being evicted. He didn’t say anything about food and security about millions of Americans’ children. He didn’t say anything about state and local. That is completely unacceptable.

“On the other hand, my colleagues, I welcome their suggestions and we are … all in sync . We said we would come down a trillion dollars. We are ready we are willing to negotiate at that level. And we are making plans for something that we want to do next…… ’cause …. how many days is it until the election? Seventy-three? Seventy-three days! Ninety-nine days since the bill. Seventy-three days since the election. And we are getting ready for this for this legislative session that comes and the legislation that begins in January. So we are in sync in our caucus.”

Pelosi fails to understand that her party is not in sync, that tens of millions of Americans now homeless from her “strategic” negotiations, can’t wait until Stemberg let alone January, and countless Americans are calling for all incumbents whether Democrat or Republican to be ousted for failure to give them any stimulus relief for months. Pelosi also said today’s focus was insuring that children’s letters to Santa Claus get delivered by the Post Office.

The Apple Fire Map continues to grow tonight. The fire was first reported just before 6 pm PST. At the time officials told news “At least two separate fires near each other are burning (one at approximately three acres and one at approximately 15-20 acres). ” But tonight the fire is now ” now approximately 700 acres and 0% contained. All Evacuation ORDERS remain in place.” Earlier officials added “Both fires are approximately 350 acres total and 0% contained. Evacuation Orders are in place for residents South of the County Line, North of Dutton Street and East of Oak Glen Road. Evacuation Center is at Beaumont High School – 39139 Cherry Valley Boulevard in Beaumont, CA”.

Evacuation orders are in place. “Evacuation ORDERS are in place for residents South of the County Line, North of Dutton Street and East of Oak Glen Road.