The Langhjelm Letter

My advice on the BC election

2009-05-12T10:24:00.000-07:00

Given that I haven't felt inclined to post anything since the end of the coalition debacle back in December, I'm not sure if anyone will read this, but I hope it will do some good.

1. If you live in a swing riding, vote BC Liberal. We can't risk the damage that would be inflicted on the province by an NDP government, and for all their missteps over the second term, the Campbell government should be re-elected.

2. If you live in either a safe Liberal or NDP riding with a Conservative candidate, seriously consider voting Conservative.

You can thus send a message of disapproval to the BC Liberals for the carbon tax, inaction on health care reform and abysmal care for seniors (which my family experienced first hand with the decline and death of my grandparents), for the pay raises to public sector unions, senior bureaucrats and MLAs, cuts to crown prosecutors, for the internal corruption within the party, etc., WITHOUT risking an NDP government.

3. If you're a right leaning voter, DO NOT use the Green Party as a protest vote. To do so only sends a signal to the BC Liberals to keep moving in the opposite direction.

4. If you live in my riding (Abbotsford-Mission), vote for Randy Hawes. Neither 1 nor 2 apply in that case, and Randy is a good man who deserves your support.

5. If you live in Delta-South, vote to defeat Wally Oppal. Given the surge in gang violence, this province needs an Attorney-General who actually believes in mandatory minimum sentences rather than paying lip service to them on the eve of an election after years of outspoken opposition.

6. Do not vote for the BC Liberal candidate in Victoria-Beacon Hill.

7. Most importantly, vote for First Past the Post over STV.

An NDP government would cause damage for one term. An insanely complicated electoral system that:

-employs a mathematical formula that requires computers to count votes
-dilutes local representation
-rewards parties for running fewer candidates
-will benefit fringe parties with minimal support and place the balance of power in their hands
-will almost certainly cause chronic instability
-will require backroom deals to form what would likely be short-lived governments

threatens to cause damage for decades to come.

As flawed as the current system is, STV is much worse.

Amazing

2008-12-18T16:34:00.000-08:00

After months of endless speculation, wavering and indecision, Mats Sundin is coming to town.

I'm shocked that this is actually happening, and I'm still skeptical about how much this is going to help, but it can't hurt.

Sorry folks, that's not up to you

2008-12-07T17:16:00.000-08:00

Three Facebook friends, who happen to be Liberals, have joined a group called "Stephen Harper Must Resign as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada."

To give you an example of the makeup of the group, here's a sample of the related groups:

Oh, and this one as well.

Given the polls, I can certainly understand why Liblocdippers want Harper gone. Being on the verge of getting their asses kicked by the guy is certainly an incentive.

But his tenure as Conservative Leader is naturally up to Conservatives to decide.

What annihilation might look like

2008-12-06T02:18:00.002-08:00

For the record, this is what you get when you plug the Compas numbers in to the Hill and Knowlton seat projector:

Funny

2008-12-06T00:00:00.000-08:00

I was looking for the pro-coalition website and typed in 62percentmajority.com, and this is what I got:
The real URL is 62percentmajority.ca
A fellow Conservative supporter is obviously having some fun with this.

Timeless words

2008-12-05T18:47:00.000-08:00

"I am a Canadian,
free to speak without fear,
free to worship in my own way,
free to stand for what I think right,
free to oppose what I believe wrong,

or free to choose those
who shall govern my country.

This heritage of freedom
I pledge to uphold
for myself and all mankind."

Prime Minister John Diefenbaker
July 1, 1960

Blue juggernaut

2008-12-05T17:48:00.002-08:00

Compas came out with a poll today that must strike sheer terror into the hearts of Liberals and Dippers:

Conservative 51
Liberal 20
NDP 10
Bloc 8

It's a 6 point wider margin than Mulroney in '84, with NDP support cut in half. That's not just a landslide, it's annihilation.

No matter how great the Prime Minister's sin of "governing as if he had a majority" may have been, the electorate is reacting with righteous fury to the opposition's crass attempt to usurp his office in the midst of the greatest economic crisis of our time.

But the Prime Minister has given them the gift of time. They can slowly and carefully step back from the brink, claim some kind of victory from Harper's concessions and let the man do his job while they get their act together.

Which I now expect is precisely what will happen. These people can't possibly fail to read the writing on the wall.

Game Over

2008-12-04T17:27:00.000-08:00

If this coalition bullshit isn't over yet already, the polls indicate that it's only a matter a matter of time before the offending parties scurry desperately in the opposite direction.

Ipsos:

Conservative 46
Liberal 23
NDP 13

37 for the Coalition, 60 opposed.

EKOS:

Conservative 44
Liberal 24.1
NDP 14.1

Harper 47 - Coalition 34 on who's better to handle the economy (only 53% of NDP supporters went with the Coalition)

Tories up by over 21 points in Ontario.

56 for either prorogation or an election to 28 for the Coalition.

Bottom line:
They wanted to destroy Harper, and now the electorate appears poised to destroy them.

They should thank their lucky stars he gave them a few weeks to back away and save face.

Interesting

2008-12-04T13:41:00.000-08:00

The Facebook status of a Liberal I know:

-------- is calling on Stephane Dion to step aside immediately for the good of the Liberal Party and Canada. John McCallum or Ralph Goodale for interim leader!

Also, a defeated Liberal candidate I know has stated support for prorogation.

The cracks appear to be starting to form.

I'm sure Layton will be devastated if and when his big chance slips through his hands.

In case you missed it

2008-12-03T21:13:00.001-08:00

On Dion's speech

2008-12-03T16:36:00.000-08:00

Of course I'm speaking as a partisan Conservative, but to me Dion's response was predictably pathetic.

The Prime Minister certainly should have had something more specific to say, but having him presented back to back with Dion is probably a good thing. He just clearly comes across as the one who actually looks and sounds like a leader.

And I'm not saying that merely out of partisanship. My gut tells me that Ignatieff would have performed a whole lot better than Dion had he been in his shoes.

On the PM's speech

2008-12-03T16:22:00.000-08:00

I've gotta say, it would have helped if the Prime Minister actually explained what he was going to do now. It was his moment to make his care directly, and I think he let it slip away.

Bullshit

2008-12-03T15:08:00.000-08:00

From the Globe and Mail:

The separatist Bloc Québécois was part of secret plotting in 2000 to join a formal coalition with the two parties that now make up Stephen Harper's government, according to documents obtained by The Globe and Mail.
The scheme, designed to propel current Conservative minister Stockwell Day to power, undermines the Harper government's line this week that it would never sign a deal like the current one between the Liberal Party, the NDP and the Bloc.

You know, I don't see anything there that says or suggests that Harper had any role in that or was even privy to it. If the Globe and Mail had checked its facts, it would realize that Harper was not even an MP at the time.

Worthy of note

2008-12-02T13:07:00.001-08:00

Imagine what the effect would be if this was scientific:

I'm sorry...

2008-12-02T11:56:00.000-08:00

...but this is simply the wrong approach.

It could work if the prorogation was followed by a dissolution, but the PM can't keep dodging the House in perpetuity. Like it or not, the opposition does have a legal right to topple the government sooner or later.

Without a dissolution, this risks handing the other side the high ground.

A new addition to the insane rumour file

2008-12-02T10:24:00.000-08:00

Lawrence Cannon has said that he's hearing rumours that Dion will appoint six Bloc members to the Senate.

I really have a hard time believing that Dion is either that stupid or that crazy.

He would simultaneously destroy his party west of Kenora for a generation, legitimize the Bloc in a way that will undercut any argument Liberals will ever try to make against them in the future, and push the Senate from a discredited institution to a complete and unadulterated joke in the eyes of the public.

If he's really thinking about this, he needs to take a step back and seriously contemplate what is good for and what is destructive to his party and the country in the long run.

A quick thought

2008-12-02T01:07:00.000-08:00

I have to admit, over the past couple of days I've gained a small measure of respect for Barack Obama, if only because he's gotten to the pinnacle of politics in America the old-fashioned way: by actually winning an election.

It's based on this admirable little concept they have down there that they call "democracy."

I know Liberals and socialists in this country generally aren't fans of most things American, but they'd do well to look into this concept and how it works.

Pretty much, Part 4

2008-12-01T21:02:00.000-08:00

From J.J. McCullough:

Wow

2008-12-01T12:56:00.001-08:00

When I can actually agree with Glen Clark's communications director of all people, things really are turning completely upside down:

[The Opposition] are now attempting to argue that removing Harper is because of the failure of the Conservative government to offer an appropriate economic stimulus plan. True or not, the instability that this would create in Canada at a dangerous time is far more damaging than passing a lacklustre Tory bill.

And when the Barack Obama government takes office in January 2009, we will see what economic leadership our largest trading partner shows and then act accordingly. There is plenty of time for a change of course and a more vigorous response.

Anyone who reads this blog or my columns knows that I am no friend of Stephen Harper or the Conservatives.

But they just won the most seats in Parliament in a free and fair democratic vote.

Any attempt to replace Harper as prime minister with the fallen leader of the Liberal Party, Stephane Dion, or even worse, a prime minister chosen by the caucus of Liberal MPs is ridiculous.

The Liberal Party suffered its worst defeat ever in this past election. It has no electoral, political or moral mandate to lead Canada, period.

That's about right

2008-12-01T12:28:00.000-08:00

I can't say I disagree with this:

The main point is this — on major confidence tests, i.e. the Throne Speech, economic updates, and the budget, there were only two possible partners: the Liberals or the Bloc. The New Democrats were and remain fundamentally opposed to the direction the government would like to take the country in. This is no sinister plot — it is simple ideology. The Conservatives are (or would like to be) the party of the individual, whereas the New Democrats are the party of the collective. Simple and plain reality. (The NDP can vote with the government on individual measures — like some of the crime bills — but not on budget bills.)
Why was the party funding issue such a killer? It was tied to a major confidence issue — the economic update — ensuring that there could be no New Democrat support, and it was a dagger aimed at the hearts of the Liberal Party and the Bloc — ensuring that they would have to vote against it.

If the PM wanted to get that measure through in the 40th Parliament, he would have to have approached Jack Layton privately, made the case for how it would cripple the Liberals and allow the NDP to assume the mantle of major party of the political Left in Canada, and passed it as its own bill, later in the year.

It wasn’t — and isn’t — wrong on the merits, but the execution was fundamentally flawed. Harper thought that the Liberals were so weakened, and so into their own internal fight, the Ignatieff-Rae-Leblanc leadership contest — that they would have to let his measures pass.

Instead, he has discovered that he could push the opposition so far and no farther — they made their stand here. And so this government will probably fall.

Unless the Prime Minister gets a dissolution and wins a majority now, or wins a majority further down the road as a result, this will have to go down as the greatest strategic blunder in Canadian political history. Bigger even than the Joe Clark budget debacle.

What makes it all the more tragic is that it was a blunder made by a Prime Minister renowned as a strategic master. He simply went one move too far. Call it Napoleon marching on Russia.

Meanwhile, Coyne makes another very good point:

"Fife also reported that the coalition government would introduce a $30-billion economic stimulus package and roll back $50 billion in planned corporate tax cuts."

Now, I never did have much of a head for figgerin’, but … lessee… carry the three, cipher the one … danged if that don’t come out to negative 20!

IN OTHER WORDS: They’re going to raise taxes into a recession. That’s why we’re going through all this: so they can raise taxes into a recession.

Interesting, Part 3

2008-12-01T11:14:00.000-08:00

Based on what I just heard from the Tory Scott Reid on the floor of the House, it's looking like the PM is going to prorogue the House.

As I've said before, if that happens, it has to be followed up by a dissolution. Maybe the PM can hold off until after Christmas, but it's only a matter of time.

So it's Dion again

2008-12-01T10:44:00.001-08:00

Who knows how long that will last. It all seems to change by the hour.

What a joke

2008-12-01T10:37:00.001-08:00

When I read that headline "Coalition would be guided by all-star economic council," I was expecting some team of top flight economists, sort of like the group Obama appeared with the day after the US election.

Instead, a team of politicians, nothing more. And nothing can really getting my blood boiling more than watching Paul Martin get his fingerprints on this.

A quick thought

2008-12-01T00:17:00.001-08:00

I wonder how Warren Kinsella would have reacted had it been Paul Martin orchestrating this all.

Nicely played, Mr. Ignatieff

2008-11-30T22:27:00.001-08:00

This whole thing gets more and more absurd by the hour.

If this is correct, it is a political play that is as masterful as it is utterly despicable. Michael Ignatieff will have succeeded in ascending to our nation's highest political office without having received a single vote outside his own riding, nor having been sanctioned by the rank-and-file of his own party.

And yet, we also hear that the Prime Minister, that is the elected Prime Minister, is going to prorogue the House.

Ordinarily, I'd call that an utterly desperate and undemocratic move that does not warrant the Governor-General's approval. But in these circumstances, I can't say it's any worse than what the other side is pulling.

The way I look at it, if the Governor-General is willing to prorogue the House, it would naturally follow that she would also be willing to grant Prime Minister Harper a dissolution.

Which is the only proper way to resolve this. The Prime Minister can't dodge the House in perpetuity, and a man elected by no one outside the boundaries of Etobicoke-Lakeshore cannot claim a moral mandate to govern this country.

The people must decide. It's as simple as that.