Left at the Gate

"This is Unbelievable!"

2009-11-09T01:00:00.000-05:00

A couple of weeks ago, I wrote that I had tired of the Zenyatta team's hesitation in committing to the Classic, as they seemed to be surveying the potential competition to make sure it did not come up too tough. I then opined that the waffling had diminished her rightful claim to Horse of the Year should she win the Classic, a concept which I had previously strongly defended. A reader responded:

Alan, so let me get this straight. Because Zenyatta's connections are uncertain whether they want to try the classic, she is no longer eligible for HOY, regardless of if she runs in the classic and wins by 10 lengths. Whereas, if her connections were more decisive about the classic, she'd still be in the discussion for HOY? That makes no sense, pal.

Well, it made sense at the time, at least to me. But now, after the fact, I'd have to say that the reader was right. In the aftermath of her incredible rally, it makes no sense at all. The race was what it was, and, in retrospect, it matters not what came before.

Nonetheless, I feel as if I've therefore dq'd myself from the debate, so I'll step away, at least for now. But I think it's clear that the keen anticipation for the race once Zenyatta was finally committed, the high drama of the race itself, and the delirious adulation of the fans at the track leaves Jess Jackson looking petty, and his filly's accomplishments at least partially diminished. Hanging on for dear life against Macho Again at a mile and an eighth just doesn't measure up to this, I don't care what they're running on. But I'll let you guys discuss the HOTY issue, and move on to a few other points.

The Classic was the first race of such epic historic proportion to be run on a synthetic track. I imagine that, further down the road, it will be remembered simply as a classic horse race, one just as epically dramatic and historic as any other such event, and not as a classic horse race run on an artificial surface. I'd like to ask those of you who say that you "hate" synthetic tracks to tell us what you hated about this race? Or about the day in general? What, because Summer Bird and Mine That Bird didn't take to the track? So? Progeny of Birdstone apparently don't take to the track - I'd think that's an angle you should be seeking ways to take advantage of instead of bitching about. Synthetics are another angle for your handicapping; a little more juice to spice up the game and make it interesting. That's always been a good thing as far as I'm concerned, another twist with the potential to lead to that magic key which leads you to a winner. Perhaps, instead of complaining, you should have been betting the top-synth figure horses at 24-1 or at 25-1. Dirt horses don't like the stuff? That's awesome to know when Summer Bird is 6-1, or the overrated Music Note 2-1.

- "Let's see," Trevor Denman noted at some point as they rounded the turn (don't know for sure exactly where they were due to the ridiculous camera angles that ESPN insists on employing), "Zenyatta has a lot...a lot of ground to make up. If she wins this, she'll be a super horse." He can say that again. By the time those words came out of Denman's mouth, Mike Smith and his super horse had already gained several lengths while taking the short way home on the bend. As far back as she was, Smith must have sensed he had no other choice but to stay inside. Don't know if she would have gotten there had she circled around horses. She surely saved more than her winning margin by doing so (though you can never say for sure that a champion racehorse such as she wouldn't have done what she had to in order to prevail anyway).

From there, it was a remarkably smooth journey outside towards her winning path home, testament to the skills of the rider and horse alike. She flew home the last quarter in 23.30, according to Formulator; and that came after three quarters she ran in under 24 seconds - 23.36, 23.32, and 23.89 - just to get into contention after her disastrous start. Zenyatta earned a Beyer of 112, a nice number, but surely as meaningless as the 97 and 99 she was given in the races prior.

And Denman nailed this race too. As track announcers' careers stretch on over the years, I find that what was once genuine youthful enthusiasm often turns into canned phrases that can make the euphoria sound forced. As a matter of fact, before the race, I saw this proposition bet offered:

Which call will Trevor Denman use to describe Zenyatta's move?
"Jumps in at the quarter pole" 5/2
"Moving like a winner" 11/4
"They'd have to sprout wings" 4/1
" Poetry in Motion" 3/2
(If none of these phrases are used then all wagers will be no action.)

No payoff here....Trevor Denman was as enthralled as the rest of us, and instead, in what could very well turn out to be the signature call of his career, exclaimed exactly what we were all thinking:

"THIS....IS....UN-BEE-LIEVABLE!"

And what else was there to say?

Rachel Who?

2009-11-08T10:21:00.001-05:00

You Go Girl!

2009-11-07T11:39:00.002-05:00

I wrote before that I was standing against Zenyatta in the Classic - that was based on price and certainly nothing to do with sentiment. And since I just can't come up with any other particular horse that I like, how about I just root for her? After all, as opposed to a certain other owner, Jerry Moss is playing the game; and he's rolling the dice for no other real reason other than the sport of it. After all, Zenyatta has little to gain for the owner financially from a win given her gender; and then there's the presumed notion that Rachel Alexandra is already the Horse of the Year. On the other hand, she truly has a lot to lose with her undefeated record on the line. Little doubt she would have (again) crushed her stablemate Life Is Sweet in the Distaff on Friday.

But she's all in, and for that, she deserves some support. And it doesn't have to be at the betting windows. Go Baby Go.

Breeders Cup Picks

2009-11-06T23:48:00.001-05:00

- OK, finally got to do some handicapping, and here's a few ideas for your consideration. In the Juvenile Turf, not much to dislike about Viscount Nelson (6-1), shipping in from the UK for Aidan O'Brian and the Coolmore team. Two wins in four starts, most recently a close second in a Group 2 stakes; and man, check out that breeding. He's a son of Giant's Causeway (and a half-brother to the ill-fated Horacio Nelson), out of Imagine, winner of the Group 1 Irish Oaks and 1000 Guineas, and herself a half-sister to the dual English/Irish Derby winner Generous. This is also the distaff family of the multiple Group 1 winner Triptych.

Pounced (9-2) looks good too...coming off a Group 1 win in France for trainer John Gosden. These races with the Euro shippers are a bit of a guessing game of course (as opposed to regular races). Interactif (4-1) has impressed with his two wins in two grass tries. But if you like him, don't you have to like Codoy at 15-1? Bridgetown (8-1) comes off a stakes win for the dangerous Ken McPeek; son of Speightstown is inbred 3x3 to Storm Cat, and descends from the direct female family of the Derby winner Strike the Gold (the dam of the latter is the third dam of Bridgetown. I know, that doesn't really mean a thing regarding his chances of winning this race, but you know I like that stuff.)

Pick: Viscount Nelson

- In the Sprint, I'm going to bet against Zensational (7-5), and I might have a good clue early on whether or not that's a mistake. Though Baffert was bummed about the post, and the general wisdom seems to be that it hinders his chances by making him susceptible to speed outside of him, there's not really a whole lot of early foot in here. Fatal Bullet (9-2) would seem to be the only one who could get a jump on the favorite. Tom Amoss was very down on that one on The Works this week, and I hope he's right, but only to a certain extent. I don't like him (or his name), but I need him to do his thing early. Otherwise, it could be a long minute, nine seconds.

Or maybe not. After all, my opposition to Zensational is based more on the notion that he's stepping way up in class here than from trying to predict exactly how the race will be run. The son of Unbridled's Song may have beaten older horses, but the quality of the competition was moderate at best (though that perception could change if Noble Court runs well in the Turf Sprint, which precedes this race).

On the other hand, Fleeting Spirit (8-1) has been running against some of the best (male) sprinters in Europe - I wrote more about her in this post. Trainer Jeremy Nosada will be looking for a more alert break this time, from Frankie Dettori, and this hard-hitting filly has the tactical speed to stay within striking distance even should the favorite establish a lead, and dust up her younger rival in the closing yards.

Gayego (5-2) is the obvious wise-guy selection here off his sharp come-from-behind win in the Ancient Title. He certainly seems to have found his niche at this distance for Godolphin. However, he still has some improving to do based on his Beyers, which are a tad light against several of these. He also may not have as hot of a pace as he'd like. And, he figures to be overbet; I wouldn't touch him at his morning line.

As far as the closers go, I'm far more intrigued by Capt. Candyman Can (15-1). For one thing, he's simply a tad bit faster, at least based on his Beyers. Better yet, he's been an improved gelding since a short break over the summer. Switching into a deep closing style, he's run the three fastest races of his life since then, and has done so on three vastly different surfaces - fast and sloppy at Saratoga, Polytrack at Keeneland. Can't say for sure how he'll like the Pro-Ride, but I like that kind of versatility, and anything close to his morning line makes him excellent value in my opinion.

Picks: 1) Fleeting Spirit 2) Capt. Candyman Can 3) Zensational

- Mastercraftman bypassed the Classic for the Dirt Mile, and seems worthy, on paper, of his 6-5 morning line against competition which completely belies the ridiculous notion that this is a championship race. Nonetheless, I'm of course looking for a reason to oppose the favorite.

So, how about this, from the Form's Closer Look:

Grp. 3 denouement over the left-hand polytrack at Dundalk nearly perfect; and it's hard to knock a champion 2yo and 4-time Grp. 1 winner, but the last three wins had to wait until out from under (now-retired) Sea The Stars long shadow; has the key recency Bullsbay lacks, but must note that in the Diamond, allowance types Augustusthestrong then Via Galilei were easily consumed by forcing a rapid clip; today 3yo cuts back 5/16ths and will likely have to bring that rally from mid-pack in first exposure to much faster opening fractions; O'Brien is one of the greats, but lately lacking in 'fresh-off-the-plane' strikes (0-for-11 '08-'09) in North America; value lies elsewhere.

Works for me, whaddya think? (Though that last bit doesn't bode well for Viscount Nelson.) (UPDATE: He won the Marathon yesterday.)

Ready's Echo (20-1) will probably break slowly as usual, and is likely to be last breaking from the outside. Pletcher's four-year old son of More Than Ready has run rather well in three synthetic tries, two of those around two turns. With Borel aboard, he'll likely just take him over to the rail and hope for some luck. He'll need a lot of it, because there doesn't seem to be much speed. So I'll be like Serling and say that it's my stupid pick so then I can say I didn't really mean it after he runs up the track. Midshipman (6-1) finds a good spot to repeat his front-running win in the Juvenile last year. But what's up with him having just one prep? Bullsbay (3-1) had some early synthetic success, but improved after switching to dirt. Were his two sparkling Saratoga tries an anomaly? Or a sign of further improvement to come? I don't really know, but I'm not going to try and find out at those odds.

Pick: Ready's Echo

- And then there's the Classic, a fantastic betting race, especially if you're standing against Zenyatta as I am. I will try to post about that sometime in the morning. If not, good luck and have a great BC day.

Credit Where Due (Or Not)

2009-11-05T07:15:00.004-05:00

I've been quick to blast the New York Times for their lack of racing coverage and the highly negative perspective of Joe Drape in his continuing Happy Series on the sport. So, to be fair, I wanted to mention the fact that on Wednesday, right there on the front sports page, underneath the lead stories on the now-World Champion New York Yankees and that night's upcoming Game 6, was this story on Zenyatta. So I just wanted to mention that.

Of course, just in case you were having any thoughts that there is anything good about the sport and the upcoming event, Drape makes up for it today with this hard-hitting story on the scourge of trainers being permitted to compete after fully serving drug suspensions. So there. Not that he doesn't make some valid points, but there's no real news here, so why was it saved for this week? To cast his usual pall at one of the very few times his paper actually pays any attention to the sport?

Wynn Loses

2009-11-04T13:37:00.002-05:00

Steve Wynn is out of the Aqueduct sweepstakes.

Officials close to Wynn declined to say why the casino executive dropped out.

“We are confident that the state of New York will find a qualified operator to meet its needs at Aqueduct," a Wynn spokesman said. “We would like to thank our associates and community leaders for all their assistance in crafting our proposal." [Bloodhorse.com]

I don't believe it's because of the latest money grab by the state considering that they were bragging about all the extra cash they raised in a recent IPO in Macau. State officials were reported to be put off by a statement he recently made about the dire state of the casino industry; but the company later reiterated its belief in the Queens site. Perhaps they didn't really mean it.

The Breeders' Cup Post

2009-11-04T07:33:00.001-05:00

If you've arrived here looking for some really detailed and perceptive Breeders Cup discussion or analysis, there ain't none here. I'm kinda torn between wanting to apologize or say "too bad," though I'm leaning towards the former since I do truly appreciate you dropping by. This is not to say I'm not looking forward to the races...at least the ones on Saturday, as I'll be working or commuting for most or all of Friday's. (Hopefully, this will be the last time that I have to mention how much that idea sucked.) In fact, I've often written about looking at these races too much and for too long, and I'm psyched about coming in fairly fresh. But what can I say, it takes a lot of time and effort to write about the event sufficiently, and I'm just not into tackling the task this year for whatever reason. You can check out guys like this who obviously have a lot more time and energy.

And I'd guess he's not into the World Series. I feel as if this is the first Series I've really watched in the last five years, as busy as I've been blogging in the past this time of year (sometimes even for pay!). I wouldn't at all describe myself as a passionate Yankee fan, but I followed them with interest throughout the season and would be disappointed at this point should they not wrap this up. In any event it certainly makes for a tough go publicity-wise for the Breeders' Cup, especially if the Series goes the distance (Thursday night is the final game).

One reader has for the last couple of years at least now has written to suggest that the event be moved on a permanent basis to the first weekend of December, long after baseball and when the Army-Navy game is about the only game in town. I certainly like the concept of finding an otherwise quiet time slot, though it would stretch the season even longer and severely limit the possible venues (the reader suggested Fair Grounds as a permanent one). Because the way it is now is hopeless as far as getting any mainstream attention. Not only is there the Series, and college football coming down the stretch, but there's Election Day too (Bill Owens won the 23rd CD race, thus salvaging an otherwise forgettable night).

Now, as I said, none of this is to suggest that I'm not excited for Saturday. Reader McCarron wrote of Andy Serling's anti-synthetic rant on MSG101, and we've heard from some here who are disgusted enough to pass the races. And I have agreed all along that two consecutive years on the Pro-Ride was ill-conceived, resulting in defections and championship questions which will not be definitively answered.

Nonetheless, at this point, I mean, just forget all that stuff. There are still some pretty damn good races, and, in my mind, some attractive betting opportunities. In the Classic, take your pick at 12-1 among legit contenders, in my opinion, like Gio Ponti, Einstein, Richard's Kid, Quality Road, and Mine That Bird. (Also at 12-1 is Colonel John, who I don't think cares for the distance). Zensational drew poorly by getting the rail, and is a major underlay anywhere near his morning line of 7-5 in my view. (Tom Amoss was very down on Fatal Bullet on The Works tonight [and the show was also shown on MSG Minus/Plus]; said they compared the tape of his work last year to this year with unfavorable results.) With Gayego listed at a paltry 5-2, check out contenders like the improving Capt Candyman Can (15-1), or the Euro filly Fleeting Spirit (8-1). In the Juvenile, unbeaten Looking at Lucky (8-5) is stuck out in the 13 post; and second choice D Funnybone (5-2) is untested beyond seven furlongs. How about the improving Noble's Promise (8-1), or take a chance on one of the impressive looking Euros, like Radiohead (15-1) or Vale of York (20-1).

Look, synthetics are different than dirt, some horses surely like it better than others, but they're still perfectly viable surfaces as far as I'm concerned, and I too am a bit tired of the whining. It's a major factor one has to consider, but certainly no less so than the speed-favoring dirt surfaces that were in place in California in the past. And, as opposed to those who, like Serling, argue that "marginal" horses can win, the Europeans, as we've seen, have an entirely opposite view. Veteran British trainer John Gosden suggests that they actually provide a more reliable measure of what Europeans, at any rate, cherish as class in a thoroughbred.

"We like to see a horse like Sea The Stars, that can go any distance, any pace," he said. "A horse with tremendous cruising speed. And then bang! That last quarter, they just explode and go away. To me, that's what is exhilarating about the equine athlete. And these surfaces can bring that out. Zenyatta [the unbeaten American mare] is living proof of that. [Independent UK]

That's what I've always said. I get a much bigger kick from seeing them flying down the stretch than grimly hanging on after running fastest in the first part of the race, and I find the European-style of racing far more logical, exciting, and aesthetically pleasing than what we often see here on dirt.

Let's Try This Again (Again)

2009-11-02T14:25:00.003-05:00

Governor Paterson has issued yet another request for "final" offers from the six bidders for the Aqueduct racino, with a deadline of Nov 6; this came to me from a person with knowledge of the deliberations, and was then confirmed in a report by Tom Precious on Bloodhorse.com. Here, Precious also confirms the information I reported here last week regarding the Senate Democrats' support of the Aqueduct Entertainment Group. I think I deserved one of those "as first reported by the blog Left at the Gate" credits on that one, doncha think?

The letter includes an important caveat: details on how the bidders would be able to pay the state $200 million within 30 days of signing a deal.

The new demand would, on the surface, knock some of the bidding groups out of contention because their offers do not include such quick payments to the state. But the letter from the governor’s counsel, Peter Kiernan, was being interpreted by bidders as a final chance to reconfigure their previous offers to ensure the big upfront payment can be made.

Moreover, the letter from Kiernan said bidders, by Nov. 6, must provide “conclusive evidence” how they can ensure payment of “$200 million or more” to the state within 30 days of signing a memorandum of understanding for the casino project. [Bloodhorse.com]

Seems almost like a partial do-over, some two months after the Labor Day weekend on which many of us anticipated a final decision.

Via reader jk comes this press release from Penn National regarding an agreement with the hotel union, alluded to in the Bloodhorse report last week; as well as a partnership with Russell Simmons’ Rush Communications of NYC.

The agreement with Russell Simmons’ Rush Communications of NYC brings together Penn National’s unparalleled financial stability and liquidity, role as one of the nation’s largest investors in the re-development of pari-mutuel facilities and operator of successful horse racing facilities, with Rush’s local resources, community advocacy and focus on corporate social responsibility. [Yahoo]

This is the first attempt I'm aware of by Penn National to involve a local and/or minority group in its bid. The group still appears to lack any local political entanglements though, which might help its chances as a safe, neutral choice, and one with ample experience, plenty of cash and a solid balance sheet.

Sunday Morning Notes

2009-11-01T09:01:00.004-05:00

Made it to Aqueduct for a few races on Halloween. Absolutely nothing there has changed, not that I should be surprised given NYRA's financial situation and the endless deadlock over the slots parlor there. I've read some of the "Aqueduct ain't so bad" posts that popped up this week, and, as I've been a longtime advocate of the place as you may know, I heartily concur. But seriously, it's time for a change. A place can be a lovable dump for only so long, eventually it just becomes a dump. If the other couple of thousand of regulars would agree, I'd happily kick in 50 bucks to replace the carpeting in the Lexington Room, or the seating in the Manhattan Terrace.

As the racino saga wears on, I can't help but start to come around to the point of view that a group of readers has long been espousing here - that there will never be slots at the Big A, that a racino, and likely a full-fledged Indian casino, will rise at Belmont instead, and the Aqueduct property will soon become a mall and/or more parking for JFK.

- Got distracted by the tote board in the 6th, as I'm sometimes wont to do, and stupidly in this case. Brother Nick, 6-1 morning line and a rare starter for trainer Leon Blusiewicz, was getting pounded at a steady 5-2, and was getting bet on the nose with his show betting lagging far behind percentage-wise. Whatsmore, as post time approached, each time he would start to drift up, he'd get whacked right back down. What can I say, I'm just a sucker for stuff like that, and a sucker I was in this case, especially since I very much liked the eventual winner Groomedforvictory ($10.20). Cashed an exacta as a saver when I should have crushed that race, as Brother Nick did what he really figured to do - shot to the lead and faded, to second to last. I know, I should stop doing crap like that, but I just feel so damn clever when it works out, I can't help myself. Third place finisher Samhoon was haltered by David Jacobsen for the optional 50K claiming tag.

Trainer Dan Pietz did something that Kiaran McLaughlin hasn't been able to do lately on the NYRA circuit - he scored with a first-time starter for Shadwell, when Moojab ($17.80) ran away from the field in the 7th. The last such winner McLaughlin has had here was Taqarub nearly a year ago. Moojab's sire Smarty Jones may be a disappointment at stud thus far, but he is hitting at 19% with his debut runners according to the Form.

- Reader Steve D recommends the Horse Racing Nation site as a Breeders' Cup source, and it's definitely worth checking out. Here's the page for the Mile; even has video for some of the European races, and a lot of worthwhile nuggets if you click the links and delve in further.

Breeders' Cup Time(s)

2009-10-30T14:11:00.001-04:00

How badly does the Breeders' Cup want to move past this year's disaster of tired synthetic track controversy, major defections, and too many races? Yesterday, they unveiled their logo for next year's event, on good old dirt, at Churchill.

(Of course, the last time they ran it on dirt didn't turn out so hot either with the track turned to slop by four days of relentless rain. And you know, if it's not synth or slop, it could be factors such as track configuration (say, the one turn at Belmont), or an unfortunate post position draw, or the use of a rabbit, or any number of things that can cast doubt on a single race as a true championship event. The fact is that horse racing is a tough sport to boil down to one day; and, on the other hand, horses no longer race enough times or against each other frequently enough to always draw any conclusions from an entire season either. Maybe they should just bag the whole Eclipse concept and instead devote all the energy involved to properly marketing the game as the gambling endeavor that it is.)

I hope and plan to get to some handicapping of next Saturday's races only here - I'll be at work for the ridiculous Filly Friday and I'm boycotting those races here and as far as my wallet goes. In any event, I obviously have not been devoting the same time and attention to the event as I have in past years; so I'd like to instead direct you to the best resource online. There are several of them; but I've found that they are of varying quality, at best.

The Breeders' Cup itself has this year offloaded most of its content to the Breeders' Cup 360 site, which, unfortunately, is dominated by Jeremy Plonk. Here we are, one week before the event, and the feature story concerns in part an account of who he bet in the 1997 Sprint. I mean, really. Below that are video analyses from Oct 11, and a contest in which readers submit their best Breeders Cup score.

What I want to see most in a Breeders' Cup site are sections for each of the 14 races which feature, with one click, relevant information neatly organized and, especially, handicapping tools. But when you click on Divisions on this site, all you get is a mish-mosh list of stories and posts, none of them more recent than October 17 as of this writing (on Oct 30). There's a dropdown list at the top to specify divisions, but still no content other than links to stories in a format unfriendly to the eye. This is all pretty weak I'm afraid, especially for a site which billed itself as a comprehensive handicapping tool. (Full disclosure: I wrote for the Breeders' Cup site two years ago and was not invited back. And I'm not ashamed to shake off my usual modesty here and tell you that I think that the stuff that both I and Paul Moran wrote that year as a whole blows this stuff away. Just my highly biased opinion of course.)

The Daily Racing Form has its usual excellent Breeders Cup Advance available for a price. But the free stuff seems lacking as well. I like Watchmaker's rankings (pdf), but otherwise it's basically just a depository of links to DRF stories, with no other tools readily available even if you click on the links for each division. The sidebar contains links to features such as DRF Plus (paid), Ticketmaster, and the Inside Track blog that are available throughout the year. The BC Challenge link is more helpful, featuring video replays of many (though not all) of those races which, as we know, hardly included all of the relevant preps this year. And they're not sorted by division. The Statistics link actually leads one to the BC site.

Bloodhorse.com's Breeders' Cup Section does have divisional links on its front page, and there's a bit more info here than the two sites mentioned above with links to profiles of the contenders. But otherwise, just another list of links to stories.

To me, by far and away the most useful site I've seen is that of the Thoroughbred Times, and its 2009 Road to the Breeders' Cup section. Click on a divisional link, and you get the whole package in one easy on the eyes shot: besides the relevant stories, a list of pre-entries with sire and trainer (is that so hard?), and, best of all, a complete list of relevant preps for that particular division, Challenge races or not, with high quality pop-up videos of every single one run in North America. There's also a Statistics link which leads one to a page (its own) containing some interesting stats on past races, including past winners (sortable by owner/breeder/trainer/jockey) post positions, and winning margins. (Would love to see a list of the past winners' previous prep race or two as well.)

So a great job by TT here, congratulations to all involved, and I'll be listing their links to each division over on the right sidebar as soon as I have a moment.

Eight Is Enough

2009-10-30T00:53:00.003-04:00

Governor Paterson and legislative leaders met behind closed doors in Manhattan on Thursday in an attempt to resolve the selection of an operator for the long-stalled Aqueduct casino project; this according to Tom Precious, reporting for Bloodhorse.com. (Not surprisingly, the topic did not come up during a public session earlier in the day.

No announcement came immediately after the session broke up. The evening of Oct. 29 source said no final deals were made in the meeting. [Bloodhorse]

Prior to the meeting, I was told by someone with knowledge of the situation of an impasse between Senate Majority Leader John Sampson, who is "insisting" on Aqueduct Entertainment Group, and the governor along with the Assembly, who are wary of the group. AEG is said to have failed to satisfy the Budget Division and Lottery due to questions about its financing and equity partners without licenses. Precious reports that the Assembly wanted far more details....about individuals who may be connected in some financial ways to some of the bidders.

It seems almost beyond comprehension, even (perhaps) in Albany, that the Senate Majority Leader would be holding out for a company with any kind of doubt about its financing (no less one deemed to be "not competitive" as I was told) given the attention supposedly being paid to that aspect of the bids after the collapse of the Delaware North deal. (Remember when integrity was the buzz word?) But if this is indeed the case, one might very well recall the ties between AEG and the former Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith, as well as the recent report that Smith has his eye on a cushy casino job with the group. And it would certainly be fair to speculate (and this is strictly that) about a possible arrangement between the two men, perhaps as part of the change in leadership after the coup.

This information contradicts the report by Fred Dicker a couple of weeks ago in which he cited sources that claimed that it was Paterson who was insisting that AEG should remain in contention despite the Lottery's concerns. Frankly, the idea that it is Sampson makes more sense.

Precious also notes that this is the 8th anniversary of Governor Pataki signing into the legislation which legalized video lottery terminals at racetracks. On November 1, 2001, the New York Times reported:

Since taking office in 1995, Mr. Pataki has repeatedly promoted legalized gambling but has usually been thwarted by the Legislature. Since the spring, when waning state revenue persuaded many lawmakers to take a second look at gambling and the governor announced the outlines of a deal with the Senecas, it seemed that this year the dam would break. The destruction of the World Trade Center helped the package sail through, 52 to 8 in the Senate, and 92 to 41 in the Assembly.

The stunning breadth of the bill would make New York the Eastern state with the most legal gambling if it all survives the expected legal challenges. The law allows for three Seneca casinos, three more Indian-run casinos in the Catskills, video lottery terminals at racetracks, and New York's enlistment in the Powerball multistate lottery.

I'd say that Pennsylvania is the Eastern state with the most legal gambling; and if it isn't yet, it certainly will be. The Catskills casinos have not materialized, and no one could have imagined at the time that, eight years later, Aqueduct would not be among the racetracks with slots. Sounds like we're still a ways off.

Familiar Refrain

2009-10-28T00:01:00.000-04:00

The Times reported on Tuesday:

Robert Gibbs, the White House press secretary, said the decision “could come at any moment” but then added that it could still be weeks away.

Sounds familiar, don't it? “There is no timetable or deadline for the decision, but as the governor indicated last week, he expects a final decision soon," has been a familiar refrain from the Paterson administration regarding the Big A racino. Gibbs of course was talking about the timetable for President Obama making a determination on Afghanistan.

I wonder which decision will come first. And what kind of odds I could get on the proposition over in the UK. And what's the before/after date now? There was a time when before Labor Day seemed a sure thing, imagine that. I reported last week that this could be the week, and perhaps it still will be. But I also reported that new information from the bidders was due last week; and who knows what kind of new potential issues could have surfaced?

A couple of other propositions worth considering: Who will break the news of the winner first? I make Tom Precious the favorite at 3-4, Odato at 7-5, Danny Hakim 5-1, Elizabeth Benjamin 10-1, Hegarty 10-1, Paul Post 15-1, Left at the Gate 99-1. And I put the over/under on how many more articles that Post can cook up before something actually happens at five.

A reader sent along the text of a couple of letters to the editor in response to an Oct 11 editorial in Crain's that endorsed the SL Green group (subscription only). One is written by Wynn Resorts' Senior VP and General Counsel Kim Sinatra, in response to the column's contention that Wynn, though he brings "glitz," "faltered with a similar project in Mississippi." She claims that the Beau Rivage is "the highest-grossing casino in its market, and "currently outpaces the
brand-new Hard Rock Casino, built less than a mile away."

Wynn Resorts' 40-year track record of success in the gaming industry is not based upon “glitz.” Our success is based on attention to detail, keen financial analysis and a deep understanding of local regions. In every market where Wynn Resorts is in competition with the Hard Rock brand, we have outperformed them, producing approximately 10 times more in gaming revenue.

Moreover, Wynn Resorts recently completed an initial public offering of a portion of our Macau operations, generating proceeds of approximately $1.9 billion, giving us free cash for more commitment to New York. Bottom line: We don't have to shop for credit.

That last line sure sounds like something Wynn would say. I must say, as a blogger wondering what he's going to blog about once this thing is finally over, that Wynn has the most potential to provide future fodder for fun. I find that he's just a bit off kilter....and his grandiose plan for Aqueduct is more than just a bit off; it's just a plain pisser. I noticed that Ms. Sinatra had no response to Crain's contention that "his plans overshoot the market." (Anyone have any insight on the veracity of her claim that they out-produce Hard Rock 'approximately 10 times?')

A couple of notes on SL Green's two main partners: I wonder what the presence of Jeff Gural does for their chances. Gural has been a pain in the neck as far as at least some legislators are concerned; he was one of the driving forces in the racinos getting a bigger share of revenues last year. (And who could argue that the increase in marketing allowances isn't at least partly responsible for the New York racinos' resiliency in the face of the poor economy over the last year?)

And of course, the Hard Rock comes with the Seminoles, and this reader, referencing the ongoing situation in Florida, offers that they are "not exactly a desirable partner to government officials.....Do we really want these guys operating in New York State?" I've periodically followed the situation there where the tribe has been operating its blackjack games in violation of state law, and in the strange netherland of Federal Indian regulations. With talks over Governor Crist's latest compact proposal stalled, the Florida House of Representatives last week formally asked the federal government to shut the games down. I wouldn't hold my breath considering that the state Attorney General Bill McCollum unsuccessfully went down that route just about a year ago. McCollum wrote to the same National Indian Gaming Commission that House Speaker Larry Cretul did. Different chairman now, but my guess is that the result will be the same. Maybe they should try the wildcat formation.

- For those of you who are interested....and apparently, there are some....only 338 days until the 2010 Ryder Cup on Oct 1, 2010 in Wales!

- Marian Gaborik Completes a Marian Gaborik Hat Trick reads the headline on New York Magazine's Sports Section blog. "Two goals, an assist, and an injury." Very funny.

Showing Spirit

2009-10-27T08:25:00.000-04:00

Zenyatta's connections are still uncertain about the Classic, and as far as I'm concerned, she's therefore no longer eligible for Horse of the Year consideration even if she runs in the Classic and wins. This waiting is just weak, and not very champion-like. I still believe however, that Summer Bird should deserve a long look for the award should he prevail.

But as one filly dithers, another is definitely being pointed to face the boys; Fleeting Spirit, a four-year old Irish-bred daughter of Invincible Spirit (Green Desert/Danzig), will be entered in the Sprint. She has already enjoyed success against colts, having won the six furlong Group 1 Darley July Cup (Eng-I) at Newmarket in July; and she was a tough luck second in the five furlong Abbaye at Longchamps on Arc day. 4th as the lukewarm favorite in the Turf Sprint last year, owner Andy Stewart explains: "She's never run on an artificial surface, but she trains on it at home, and we're going where the money is." [Racing Post]

Fleeting Spirit will have a new rider in Frankie Dettori, replacing Tom Queally, who was in the saddle when the filly was left at the gate at Longchamps.

"And if you give away six lengths in a five-furlong race, you're not going to win," Stewart said. "Tom will go right to the top. In a few years' time I think he'll be the next Kieren Fallon or Lester Piggott. But we have spoken to Simon Crisford [the Godolphin manager], who said that Frankie will be available, and he will ride Fleeting Spirit in the Breeders' Cup Sprint." [The Independent]

Fleeting Spirit is out of a mare by the late Irish champion Distant Relative; her fifth dam is Be Cautious, who won The Test at Saratoga in 1960.

The Independent piece also contains some quotes from Breeders Cup president Greg Avioli, who I imagine must feel liberated speaking to British reporters who believe that synthetic tracks represent the salvation of American racing, as opposed to the stodgy, close-minded American racing press (all five of them) which actively campaigns for its demise. Carrying out an agenda in the guise of journalism as they do, perhaps they can work at FOX once the idea of racing writers in the daily press becomes extinct.

Speaking of the Europeans' success at Santa Anita last year, Avioli said:

"But that in turn is developing a wonderful theme....That Ryder Cup-type rivalry didn't previously exist to quite the same extent. Remember, it was only when the Europeans started winning, in the 1980s, that the Americans really became fired up about the Ryder Cup."

Here, Avioli takes further advantage of the Brits, who probably have no idea that nobody in this country gives a shit about the Ryder Cup.

I also noticed that Avioli, who may soon be looking for a new job himself, was up in Canada a couple of weekends ago, and, speaking of the prospects of Woodbine hosting another Breeders Cup, he said: "The biggest concern you have at Woodbine is going to be the temperature." [Toronto Star] Actually, I know a fair amount of racing fans who would rather see the event staged on the inner dirt track at Aqueduct in early February than on the Poly at Woodbine even if the weather up there was Del Mar-like. He's not really that clueless, right?

Another major synthetic defector as Indian Blessing will not be pre-entered in the Filly and Mare Sprint. "She just doesn't like the track," Baffert said. So there.

- The Jets' win in Oakland came at a steep price with the season-ending injury to their All-Pro, all-purpose running back/kick returner Leon Washington. So it might be best to focus on the short-term, which features an opportunity to take revenge against the Dolphins and their bush-league playground offense at home on Sunday. A win would put them at 5-3 going into the bye week; a chance to bask in that success for two whole weeks (and who knows, perhaps the Giants, faltering now in the face of some real competition, will have the same record). Us Jets fans have learned to appreciate the small things in life. Like a hot dog on the sidelines.

Notes - Oct 23

2009-10-23T14:22:00.000-04:00

Two more winners for Levine on Thursday, he's 11 for 39 at the meeting. He won the 4th with bombshell The Mailet ($88), and it occurred to me that you don't often see this barn win at prices like that. So, since I have nothing better to do, I checked out Formulator, and check this out (if you care, of course). Levine has won 465 races in the last three years, and this was by far the longest odds (23-1 was the previous high). Only 11 of those 465 winners went off at double digit odds, while 143, or 31%, were even money or less. Another 127 were less than 2-1. With a median payout of $5.55, not a barn one can make much money on.

Unless you had The Mailet. This two-year old filly was making her first grass start after two dismal dirt tries; she's by Rock Hard Ten, out of a Smarten mare who is a half-sister to the G1 winners Stellar Jayne and Starrer. The sire is struggling in his first year, with his fee down to $30,000 from 50K. The Mailet was just his 4th North American winner; he has a stakes winner in the UK.

Kitten's Joy has been far more successful in his rookie year at around half the price; 15 winners, 4th on the first-year sire list. Gary West writes of two of his progeny, trained by Michael Maker, who are competing at Retama this weekend with an eye on the Breeders Cup juvenile turf races. Kera's Kitten is a colt out of a Dixieland Band mare, and a half-brother to Talent Search, third in the Sprint in 2007. Lisas Kitten is a filly out of a Woodman mare with some interesting inbreeding for grass - 5x4 to Buckpasser, 5x5 to Tom Fool.

Off the Record

2009-10-22T09:02:00.000-04:00

Got an email from NYRA about the two track records that were tied or broken on Wednesday, and I don't know if that's something they really want to publicize considering the ordinary animals who are now written into the record books. Seems a little silly, really, and nothing more than evidence of a superfast track. Super Shape ($16.40), who tied the record for 6 1/2 furlongs of 1:14.46 set by Bear Fan in 2004, is a 35K claimer who was winning his second race, sandwiched around two awful efforts, since being claimed for owner Mike Repole for the same price in May. This was his first race for trainer Bruce Levine, who has bounced back strongly from a poor Saratoga meet with nine winners from 34 starters (26%). Super Shape earned a Beyer of 97.

In the 4th, Birdrun ($6.20) ran a mile and a sixteenth in a record 1:39.38. This horse graduated in a romp for a 35K tag for Mott in the spring, and maybe it gave the son of Birdstone some confidence, if you believe in that sort of thing. He since ran two good seconds in allowance and starters allowance company before this effort, in which he earned a career best Beyer of 99. (There were only two other dirt races on the card, both cheap state-bred maiden claiming sprints.)

Tom Bush won the 5th with Boxitup ($13.20), and this barn is just blazing hot right now....eight winners from his last 12 starters! (Burnished Copper was 3rd at 12-1 in the 7th.) And that includes Get Stormy, who won the G3 Bryan Station at Keeneland on Sunday, the barn's first graded winner since Rahy's Appeal in 2006.

Odds and Ends

2009-10-21T00:22:00.001-04:00

- Clicked on to the Daily Politics blog today, and whaddya know, two banner ads from the SL Green/Hard Rock group. Here's their website. Seriously, would they really build that giant guitar? Could run afoul of FAA regulations, someone might bring a small plane down on the main track chute...watch out for Ussery's Alley. I love the artist's conception of the crowd. Well-dressed, young, racially diverse; a couple of them appear to be ghosts. Oh yeah, just your typical slots parlor crowd.

- Beethoven is coming to the Breeders Cup. No, not the Oxley-Ward three-year old who won the G2 Ky Jockey Club, and then disappeared after a couple of disappointing, though not disastrous, stakes efforts this spring.

Trainer John Ward said Wednesday, March 25, that Beethoven had sustained a slight injury to his left front leg and will “be on sidelines for short period.” [Bloodhorse.com]

Haven't seen nor heard of him since. I checked Stallion Register, and he's not listed there. Yet.

This Beethoven is a two-year old, from the first crop of the two-time Group 1 winner Oratorio, who upset the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes for Aidan O'Brien last weekend. He will switch to the Pro-Ride and run in the Juvenile. Beethoven is out of a Sadlers Wells mare, and this is the distaff family of last year's Classic runner-up Henrythenavigator (they have the same third dam, and Henrythenavigator is also out of a Sadlers Wells mare.)

- Kentucky's Wagering Integrity Committee will recommend that pools close when the clock strikes zero, as in 0 MTP. The tracks are opposed, and who can blame them given the wagering declines they are already dealing with. And besides, as Chris Scherf of the TRA pointed out, the odds are going to change after betting is closed in any event. "You may get the bad news before the race starts, but you're still going to get bad news." [DRF] So people are still going to grumble; that's the nature of gamblers, whether it's a late move on the tote board or on an NFL game.

If the Wagering Integrity Committee wants to improve wagering integrity, how about worrying about important things, like the integrity of the races themselves? To me, this is yet another case of the industry worrying too much about perception. I mean, c'mon, this is gambling, and it's just a game, for me anyway. A horse gets punched late and wins by five. In my mind, if you can't just smile knowingly and move on to the next race, perhaps you should find some other way to spend your time and money.

Fresh Face

2009-10-20T15:02:00.002-04:00

I'm told by a person with knowledge of the Aqueduct deliberations that the process is now being handled by Tim Gilchrist, described as an experienced, well-regarded, and "apolitical" (if there's such a thing in Albany) program and policy guy. Previously, the matter was being dealt with by Budget Director Robert Megna, Lottery Director ~~Robert J. McLaughlin~~ Gordon Medenica, and the Governor's legal counsel Peter J. Kiernan. I'm informed that Gilchrist is supposed to make a final recommendation to Paterson later this week with an announcement coming next week. I know we've heard that many times before....but I'm thinking that this process is truly about to reach a conclusion.

However, even at this time, aspects of the process remain in flux. I was also told that additional information on equity partners and affiliates in each bid are due at the governor's mansion today. And the local Queens Courier reports that Steve Wynn recently completed a bond issuance some 43% higher than originally planned as a “show of strength [with] cash [and] the ability to raise cash” to sway Paterson, Smith and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver in his direction.

- In some other Albany news, in an obvious blow-off to Governor Paterson, his "popularity" still at a nadir in polls, Senate Democrats scheduled hearings out of town on the day that the governor called for a special session to consider his proposals to close the $3-$4 billion deficit being projected for the current fiscal year. (Paterson has now pushed the session back by one day.)

And you gotta love this....Paterson has delivered a dis of his own, this one to President Obama, in town today for to raise money for the DNC - a $30,400-per-couple dinner at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel at Columbus Circle. [Gothamist] The governor will not attend due to his being "unilaterally focused on this budget issue." Unlike, apparently, the Senate Democrats.

More calls for the resignation of Senator Hiram Monserrate, including, significantly perhaps, from two Latina members of the NY City Council. Senate Democratic Conference Leader John Sampson is expected to announce today a nine-member committee (five Democrats and four Republicans) to consider disciplinary action and possible expulsion.

And finally, last and certainly not least, the repugnant former mayor of New York City was at it again over the weekend, warning voters that their personal safety was at risk should Democratic candidate William Thompson defeat Mayor Bloomberg in November. “You know exactly what I’m talking about,” Giuliani said; and, with the remarks coming as it did in an Orthodox Brooklyn neighborhood, it obviously recalled the racial tensions of the early 90's, which were followed by his own divisive administration. With the Democratic candidate happening to be black, the race-baiting element of his remarks are quite obvious...in addition to the fear-mongering that has become his M.O. The latest Siena poll shows him closing the gap in a race for governor against Andrew Cuomo, and that's something about which to be very, very afraid.

Monday Morning Notes

2009-10-19T07:45:00.001-04:00

I don't know if the weather was quite the deluge that NYRA was anticipating when it postponed two grass stakes until later this week; but there was more than enough precipitation to justify its move, with all of the grass races taken off on both days. NYRA might have felt a bit silly despite their worthy intentions had it not rained, and they might have been getting a little nervous on Friday, which was mostly dry. Charlie Hayward and NYRA officials spend a lot of time I'm sure praying that the precipitation stays far away, but this time, given their apparent affinity for the SL Green bid, they may have had some Seminoles over to do a rain dance. Only 5,746 at Belmont for the two cards combined, just 2,064 on Sunday, and I can't imagine how freezing and depressing it must have been there. [UPDATE: As a reader mentioned, this is coming from someone who sat and suffered through (most of) the Jets game yesterday. I'm actually proud to report that I left before the overtime.]

Bobby Frankel took the 7th when his first-time starter Comic Marvel ($43.40) rallied through the slop. I looked back over Frankel's debut runners over the last five yeards in Formulator, and found that he had a record of 20 for 197 (10%). I would have guessed that he had more than just 20 over that many years. But more interesting, and amusing, is that the highest payoff on those 20 winners prior to #21 was 7.90-to-1; 12 of them were under 2-1. So I'd surmise that Comic Marvel was just as big a surprise to his connections as he was to the bettors. She's a two-year old daughter of Distorted Humor, out of a Lyceus mare who has produced four European stakes winners, including the Group 1 winner Nebraska Tornado. So I'd expect to see her on grass before too long.

Another 20-1 shot in the 8th with McVictory ($43.80) winning for Bobby Barbara, having a fine Belmont fall meeting with five winners now from 20 starters, including of course the bombshell Interpatation in the boggy Turf Classic. He also missed narrowly last weekend with 28-1 Pleasant Sister.

Of Budgets, Circumstances, and Trash

2009-10-17T09:42:00.000-04:00

After unsuccessfully trying to prod legislators into making the first move, Governor Paterson proposed spending cuts aimed at closing the latest deficit being projected for this year, estimates of which range from around $3 billion to $4.1 billion.

The plan also includes some one-time revenue shots, including a raid of the state's environmental fund, as well as $200 million - this year - for the Aqueduct racino. And where have we heard that before? Hard to say if that figure reveals anything about who the choice will be, given that the figures we've read about are only what have been reported in the press.....and given the fact that the proposals seem to remain in flux. Perhaps however we can surmise that Delaware North, last reported to be offering just $100 million up front with additional cash to follow, is not amongst the finalists....perhaps.

The cuts would effect schools, healthcare, and local governments. They drew the usual condemnation from effected groups, which, as always, comes without the offer of alternative solutions. And they were met by a lack of urgency by the state Senate (the Democratic leaders of which are still in China), which indicated it will hold hearings late in the month. Senator and Gang of Four member Carl Kruger actually accused the governor of exaggerating the crisis, suggesting that he was doing it for his own political gain. "So if he wants to up his poll numbers and run for re-election, he won't be running against the Legislature." [Daily Politics] As if spending cuts such as those being proposed are going to help his poll numbers. What a jerk, and this guy is the head of the Senate Finance Committee. Scary.

The governor, flashing his political chops as we've seen quite a bit of lately, went on the offensive with a PR assault of his own.

"I gave the legislators about six weeks to give me suggestions as to how they would cut it, and now they're all screaming," Paterson said on WOR radio.

"I mean, I think they're embarrassing themselves, frankly. [NY Post]

- The calls for the resignation of State Senator Hiram Monserrate have begun, even though he was acquitted of the most serious assault charges, convicted only of a misdemeanor for dragging his girlfriend through the halls of their apartment building after he slashed her face with a glass....er, accidentally....of course. Though he could theoretically be sentenced to a year in jail, the consensus seems to be that that is unlikely given that he is a first-time women ~~slasher~~ dragger-through-apartment-halls.

State Sen. Liz Krueger, D-Manhattan, said Monserrate should resign "for the sake of his constituents, the institution of the Senate and the Democratic Party."

"Domestic violence is a scourge on our society," she added.

"We're held to a high standard in the Senate, and I would expect he would understand that and resign immediately," said Sen. Neil D. Breslin, D-Albany.

Other Democrats joined in those calls, with some saying they will push for expulsion proceedings if Monserrate, another member of the vaunted Gang of Four, does not resign. [Buffalo News]

It's certainly fair to be outraged about the verdict; but don't blame the judge, who I believe did his job and delivered a proper verdict under the circumstances of the highly circumstantial evidence. It's a strange justice system in which a trial of this nature can be conducted and concluded without the two principals actually having to take the stand to testify about what happened, and then defend that testimony under withering cross-examination. No opportunities here for any Perry Mason moments resulting from expert testimony disputing any physical possibility of the incident taking place as detailed by the attacker under oath.

Defense attorney Joseph Tacopina, a $750-an-hour lawyer who Monserrate was suddenly able to afford right around the time of the Senate coup in June, slyly called just two witnesses, thus allowing the prosecution, and the interest of justice for all, to twist in the wind. We can only hope that the Senate will do the right thing and throw the thug out. (And while they're at it, they can throw Senator Ruben Diaz Sr. out with the trash.)

Sea the Back of Racing

2009-10-15T07:04:00.003-04:00

DiscreetPicks sent along an excerpt from a story about some proposition bets being offered in the UK.

Paddy Power, who are refunding all losing ante-post bets placed on Sea The Stars for the Classic, offer an interesting market.

The Irish layers are also offering odds of 25/1 that Sea The Stars produces a Derby winner from his first crop of foals.

Paddy Power said, "It's sad to see the back of him but he has nothing more to prove. Let's just hope he's more Sadlers Wells than Cigar or Gorgeous George (Washington)!"

William Hill take a slightly different line and offer 12/1 that any of his first crop wins any of the British classics.

They are also betting on what the initial stud fee will be for Sea The Stars.

Between 90,000 and 110,000 euros is the 6/4 favourite, over 110,000 is on offer at 7/4, while less than 90,000 is available at 2/1. [bettingzone]

First of all, maybe that's a custom in the UK, but seems quite nice of them to refund all that money. Did Steve Wynn do that? Secondly: "It's sad to see the back of him." lol, I love the way they put things over there.

But thirdly and most of all....25-1 on Sea the Stars siring the winner of the 2014 Epsom Derby? Do you think that would perhaps be fair odds for one of his progeny to start in the race? Of course, he does have every right to be a prodigious stallion, given his freakish talent and his blue blood - a son of Cape Cross, a sire of 57 stakes winners in his seven crops, including Ouija Board, out of Urban Sea, the dam of seven stakes winners, including champion (racehorse and sire) Galileo and local star My Typhoon. And he'll surely have a healthy size crop, even if the over 110,000 on his stud fee pays off at 7-4. Still, doesn't seem like fair odds to me.

DiscreetPicks adds:

I can't tell you how cool it is that the Europeans are taking bets on Sea The Stars' breeding exploits. Those people love to gamble, and they give horseracing the respect it deserves. The chances of anything like that being offered in Vegas is 0%.

If it's 0% in Vegas, you can imagine what it would be in the rest of the country. Given the stubborn resistance that has met the expansion of gambling every step of the way even to the still relatively small (at least compared to the UK) amount of legal gambling we have nationally, it's hard to imagine any bookie joints opening up in Manhattan (or anywhere else) anytime soon. Too bad; not only could we really bet on who gets the Aqueduct racino (or on the Monserrate verdict), we could get down on whether Paterson scratches his crotch during the press conference (or whether Monserrate gets kicked out of the Senate should he be convicted of a lesser charge).

And it's true, it's a different culture when it comes to gambling over there; and it almost makes comparisons of the (lack of) popularity of the sport here to what it is over there meaningless. Surely, things would be drastically different for the sport if gambling was part of the popular culture here. I've always maintained in this space that it's the gambling angle which is the sport's only hope of regaining popularity, and I think we'd see that borne out if attitudes about gambling were different, and if creative propositions were well-marketed and readily available. I also believe that the attempts these last two years to market the sport by promoting Curlin and Rachel Alexandra prove what a total waste of time and effort that approach is. Horses in the 21st century simply don't race nearly enough; and we see the back of them far too soon to make anyone care. The sad truth is that nobody does. And it certainly doesn't help when you have egotistical owners more interested in making a buck or proving a point than being a sportsman; or a network partner which quite obviously considers its contractual obligations to be more of a nuisance than an endeavor it takes pride in.

Still Dickering

2009-10-14T07:03:00.001-04:00

There hasn't been any real news about Aqueduct since the news a week ago about Steve Wynn making peace with the hotel union; and the last we heard, Governor Paterson was still undecided. I guess an extra week hasn't helped him make up his mind. Not that it matters anyway, with the Senate Democratic leadership in China until next week.

Don't know if this qualifies as news, but, as reader jk pointed out, Fred Dicker wrote in the Post on Monday that Paterson has reversed himself on an earlier assertion that an unnamed partner in Aqueduct Entertainment Group, which has now widely been dismissed from serious contention, had issues which would make them ineligible for licensing by the all-powerful Lottery Division.

"AEG has ties to [Rev. Floyd] Flake, to Malcolm [Smith], to [Congressman] Gregory Meeks, to the governor, so what other reason would there be for Lottery to say they're not qualified and then to say that they are?"

Another source said, "It appears that the governor made promises to Flake's group that he's trying to deliver on now." [NY Post]

Strong words there, but consider the source. Dicker has his agenda, and though he's certainly broken his share of stories, we're still waiting to find out how Spitzer was blackmailed into selecting NYRA. So I'll wait and see about this. AEG were my morning line favorite though, and this would certainly be a case of coming back from the presumed dead.

- Justice William Erlbaum heard closing arguments on Tuesday, and will issue his verdict on Thursday in the assault trail of State Senator Hiram Monserrate. Defense attorney Joseph Tacopino hammered away at what even the judge acknowledged was “the linchpin” of the case - the statements by medical personnel that Karla Giraldo originally told them that she was attacked.

One witness, Dr. Dawne Kort, testified that Ms. Giraldo re-enacted the attack for her with an imaginary glass, quoting Mr. Monserrate saying angrily: “You want the water? You want the water? Here’s your water!”

Mr. Tacopina questioned why the doctors and nurse did not immediately write down some statements they said Ms. Giraldo made, taking up to three weeks to record them in notes. “That alone is reasonable doubt,” he said. [NY Times]

Tacopino also suggested that Ms. Giraldo was pressured by the medical personnel to say it was domestic violence. Monserrate could get seven years and lose his seat if convicted of one of the two felony charges...or be convicted of a misdemeanor and conceivably avoid jail time altogether. Elizabeth Benjamin lays out the political consequences of a conviction, an acquittal and everything in between, as power in the State Senate hangs in the balance. But I'm telling you, as ridiculous as his story is, I'll be shocked if this guy doesn't walk out of the courtroom scot-free on Thursday. Without the cooperation from the victim, I don't see where the prosecution has proven anything beyond a reasonable doubt. (This, of course, from someone observing only through the press.)

- For those of you so inclined, Irene Jay Liu of the Times Union's Capitol Confidential blog breaks down the various factions dividing the NY Senate Democrats, as opposed to the big happy, homogeneous family of obstructionist Republicans. Her explanation in this video starts at 14:30. Certainly not the only legislative body that is currently aligned in similar fashion.

Tough Call

2009-10-13T14:15:00.001-04:00

With the retirement of Sea the Stars, I'd imagine that Jerry Moss' decision as to whether to run Zenyatta in the Classic or the Ladies Classic just got a bit easier. I do agree with the commenters who criticized him for waffling on the decision, which we're told won't be for a few weeks (a timeframe which could have him deciding between the Clark and the Cigar Mile given that the Breeders' Cup is only 3 1/2 weeks away). "It will depend on who's coming, the size of the field," said John Sherriffs wife. [DRF] (Jay Privman couldn't do any better than a quote from the trainer's wife??) I think that's kinda weak. I mean, c'mon, if you're going to run in the Classic with the notion of claiming the rights to Horse of the Year if she wins (as she rightfully could in my own opinion, as we've been debating in this long comment thread), then just do it. To wait and size up the competition diminishes her rightful claim to a title in my view.

But personally, I wouldn't blame Moss if he opts for the Ladies Classic instead. It's quite possible that retiring her a perfect 14-for-14 with a Breeders Cup win, thus topping the immortal Personal Ensign's streak by one (the legitimate questions of synthetic surfaces and the nature of their respective campaigns aside), means more to her connections than even a Horse of the Year title that likely won't be forthcoming even if she were to win the Classic.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Zenyatta run against the boys, and it may very well be the last remaining hook that the BC publicity department could hang their hats and hopes on. (Not to mention creating, for the viewing pleasure of the arrogant Breeders Cup officials who pressed on with the format this year despite the overwhelmingly widespread dissatisfaction from its fan base, the spectacle of the idiotic Filly Friday program being run without the only two publicly recognizable female stars in the sport.) But I think it's a tough call, one that I wouldn't want to have to make. Gut feeling here is that they go for the easier shot at undefeated glory.

El Angelo, in trying to rebut my argument that Zenyatta should be considered for the title should she win the Classic, brought up the prospect of Summer Bird winning the Classic and thus being named HOTY. But the more I think about it, I believe that Summer Bird may have an even better case than Zenyatta should he do so. That would make four Grade 1 wins, all at a mile and a quarter or more, twice against older, one of those against ostensibly the best horses in the world.

Mine That Bird is in the Classic, and he really did not run badly at all in the Goodwood. Doomed by a slow pace (in particular, a glacial second quarter of 25 flat) , the Derby winner ran well in the stretch, achieving field best final splits of 35 flat for the last 3/8ths, and 11.15 for the last furlong. I think he'd be good value at double digit odds (which I think he certainly would be was he not the Derby winner), and with a fast pace, longer distance, and Calvin aboard for the ride, who knows?

While Jess Jackson gives Rachel Alexandra her precious rest (which, despite her hard work, I imagine she really needs about as much as does Tera Patrick), Barry Abrams is talking about running Lethal Heat on both Breeders Cup days! “I’m going to run Lethal Heat in the Ladies’ Classic on Friday and down the hill on Saturday." [TT] Yeah, right on!!

And finally, yes, I completely blame freaking Hank Goldberg for the Jets surrendering 413 total yards and 21 4th quarter points in their loss to the Dolphins last night. Take a hike, Hank, get lost!

Sunday Morning Notes

2009-10-11T11:10:00.000-04:00

Hank Goldberg touted the Jets on ESPN....make that on ESPN Classic (where they may want to consider consigning him permanently)....while picking Justenuffhumor in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Oh man. If he's equally accurate about the game as he was about the horse, the Dolphins will return the opening kickoff for a score, recover a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, and the Jets will never be in the game! Thanks a lot, Hank.

Court Vision ($11.60) seemed too easy given the pre-race reporting of his switch to Dutrow and his "equipment change" to alleviate the discomfort caused by the testicle that had moved into his abdomen. I hate when that happens. Just as Iavarone said before the race, the cutback to a mile suited him perfectly...as did, I imagine, the slow early pace which allowed him to stay much closer than usual. He closed in 23.35, with each quarter quicker than the preceding one. Not much chance for Justenufhomor to close from the back of the pack in this one, and Alan Garcia said that he hated the soft track. Excuses, excuses; hope we're not hearing Rex Ryan complain about the footing at Land Shark Stadium late on Monday night.

When I criticized the Champagne field and the state of two-year old racing, I hadn't yet looked at the Breeders Futurity - now that was a worthy two-year old stakes; 14 horses of varying backgrounds from racetracks east and west. As this reader pointed out, a two-turn race on a synthetic surface is surely a more appropriate prep for this year's Juvenile than a one-turn race on dirt at Belmont. However, the Champagne seemed a more logically incremental step for many of the horses who raced at Keeneland, given that just four of the 14 had two-turn experience coming in. Noble's Promise ($27.80) was not one of those, though he was coming off a stakes win over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle. As a son of Cuvee out of a Clever Trick mare, one might deem him more suitable for the shorter distances; but if you look deeper into his distaff family, you'll find distance horses such as Parade Ground, Plenty of Grace, Military, and Soaring Softly. Those are grass horses too, and the fact that he liked the Keeneland Poly bodes well for his future on that surface.

Noble's Promise is the first graded stakes winner for his second year sire, standing for just $6500 at Gainesway in Kentucky.

I also mentioned yesterday that the handicap division lies in ruin, and I suppose it does even more so now after Gitano Hernando ($38), a previously nondescript three-year old shipper from the UK, upset the Goodwood, beating some of the west's top contenders - plus Derby winner Mine That Bird. "He's lightly raced, and it's amazing going from a condition race to a Grade 1," said trainer Marco Botti. [Racing Post] Not so amazing though when it comes to Euro shippers on American synthetics. As Jerry Bailey noted on ESPN, this could open the floodgates from overseas as far as potential Breeders Cup starters go.

The Team Valor-owned winner is by Hernando (Ninisky/Nijinsky) out of Ginos Spirits, a US stakes winner (G3 Nobel Damsel).

Zenyatta was the star of the day, and I'll get back to her since I gotta go and don't want to demean her brilliance by giving her short shrift due to my own time constraints here. But, before I go, I'll just pose the hypothetical question of whether, on some mythical racing surface on which all things are equal, do you think that Rachel Alexandra could really hold off her powerful close?

Seeing Stars

2009-10-10T12:27:00.003-04:00

The inimitable Chris McGrath, writing in the UK's Guardian, provides an excellent summary of the debate overseas about the Breeders Cup status of the sensational Arc winner Sea the Stars; especially handy for those of us, including admittedly myself, who haven't been paying proper attention to the runup to the event for whatever reason, be it what one sees as the lack of depth and quality in most of the (too many) divisions this year, or if one is perhaps instead paying attention to the high drama of America's pastime.

Americans and Europeans often don't see eye to eye, and those differences in opinions and perspectives regarding horse racing are especially stark. In McGrath's article, we once again see the wide gulf in opinion about synthetic tracks. I've often mentioned how I'm taken aback by the furious invective we hear against the surfaces here; as if its proponents, in striving to make the sport safer, were doing something unimaginably awful and horrific. Y'know, like trying to make health care fairer and more accessible to those who presently can't afford to have it. Or, winning the Nobel Peace Prize for the mere suggestion that his country is willing to seek consensus and compromise rather than unilaterally and forcefully imposing its own solutions....thus reforming and reshaping its image throughout the world almost overnight. Oh, the horrors!

If you instead prefer to exhume the carcass of poor George Washington, moreover, you actually turn the moral imperatives in favour of running Sea The Stars.

For the loss of George Washington, in a vile slop at Monmouth Park, was one of several grotesque accidents that shocked American conservatives into acknowledging the need for the sort of synthetic surface introduced at Santa Anita. It is only the coincidence that the Breeders' Cup comes to the same venue, for the second year in a row, that makes it a remotely palatable project for Sea The Stars. In 2010 it is back on dirt, in Louisville, where it would never have been remotely entertained.

This process of integration was first embraced, against colossal vested interests, by American visionaries; and then by the trainers who favoured the Classic, for Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator, over the Mile on turf. Back in fourth last year, however, was Curlin, whose connections are so disgusted that the Classic will again be run on "plastic" that they have vowed to keep away their outstanding filly, Rachel Alexandra.

In that context, Oxx might sense a responsibility to the future of the sport. The Breeders' Cup already lacks one marquee name; to miss this one, too, would be poor reward for its wholesome renewal. [Guardian UK]

Imagine, using the word "visionaries" to describe those responsible for the "plastic" over which the Breeders' Cup horses (which of course won't include America's most renowned star) will compete! It's a sure bet you'll never hear that here. That's a word usually reserved for Nobel Peace Prize winners.

- We've spoken quite a bit over the last few years about the demise of the handicap division for older horses; and it lays in virtual ruin this year. But the other end of the age spectrum is suffering as well in my opinion, and that's illustrated quite well by today's Champagne. Just six horses, two of them coming straight out of maiden wins, all but Dublin eligible for entry-level allowance races. "Grade 1" doesn't mean much when it comes to juvenile stakes this time of year. For all we know about these horses, the next Derby winner could be just as likely to come out of the maiden race in the second. The list of Champagne winners includes Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, Easy Goer, Forty Niner, Riva Ridge, Stop the Music, and Alydar. Hard to imagine that any of today's entrants will accomplish as much as any of those. Possible of course, but no way to tell now.

But when Alydar defeated Affirmed in the 1977 edition, we already had a good idea that they both would be special. They had already won eight stakes between them (five by Affirmed), and were meeting for the fifth time. It's highly questionable if Dublin and Aspire will even meet five times in their careers! And whether either of them turns out to be of any consequence next spring simply remains to be seen.

Remaining to be seen in this post is the 1977 Champagne, well before the bubbly became stale...and with the late, great Chic Anderson in the announcer's booth.

More For Some, Less For Others

2009-10-09T00:17:00.000-04:00

I was really surprised at the announcement that the Saratoga meet will be extended by four days to an even 40. I hadn't heard any clamoring for expansion, and besides, the meet already seemed a week too long to me for sure. NYRA President/CEO Charlie Hayward said:

"Going into this year’s Saratoga meet, we predicted that wagering would decline approximately 5 percent from last year. We greatly exceeded those expectations.....The expansion to four racing days was a measured decision that reflects the overwhelming demand for racing that we have from horsemen in Saratoga. At a time when many tracks in the country had to cut back on racing days [blah blah blah...] [The Saratogian]

Look, Charlie can go on all day about how great Saratoga is, but we all know exactly why NYRA has extended the neet. I truly wonder, and rather doubt, that this move would have been made had slots been up and running at the Big A. I do believe that most interested parties (other than local restaurant owners and Tom Federlin), including NYRA officials, would have agreed that the meet had already reached its limit, and possibly beyond it in terms of the quality of the races. However, with the timeline for slots already extended beyond NYRA's initial estimates of how long its cash would hold out, every little bit helps. And four days upstate instead of three and a dark day downstate will account for far more than just a little bit.

Of course, more racing at Saratoga means less down here, and what of those amongst us who don't have the time or the money to spend a lot of time upstate? You know, the degenerates who support the racing during its most moribund days in the dead of winter? That makes seven summer weekends with no live thoroughbred racing in the metropolitan area....and one less of the Friday sunset racing, which may very well qualify as the most festive downstate racing dates of the year other than the Belmont Stakes. That's a long gap...and it kind of sucks. It smacks of elitism, you know, the northeast liberal kind!

A longtime reader and fellow hopeful Jets fan writes:

I have always wondered if, during Saratoga, they could run on Tuesday at Big A or even Belmont just to give downstaters like us a chance at live racing.

In the past I imagined running an almost all turf card filled with races they would not card upstate, 2yo turf races, Md Clm and MdNY on the turf, turf sprints, and a couple of cheap claimers on the dirt, but now they run them all up there.

They could also card the cheaper jumper races that have been eliminated, make it a fair atmosphere....10 races on a Tuesday beginning at noon, I will be there.

I know, there are a hundred practical and logistical reasons why that will never happen, but it's an interesting thought....and I'd take a staycation day or two to check that out too.

The good news is that I do believe that this is it for expansion....at least assuming that one day, maybe even before ~~Halloween~~ ~~Thanksgiving~~ ~~Christmas~~ the Kentucky Derby, an operator will be named to run the racino. Once the money starts flowing, NYRA will take another look at its prized jewel, and I predict the next change in the number of dates will be less, not more.

- With the Senate Democratic leadership off to China for nine days, it looks like it will be at least another couple of weeks before we have that decision. The trip was criticized by Rick Lazio, the nondescript only yet-to-be-declared Republican candidate for governor, who said: “If I were going to send an economic ambassador to another country, the last person I’d send is an Albany politician." Hey, that's actually funny!

For the record, the trip is not being paid for by taxpayer money as I speculated the other day. In fact, many of the lawmakers are paying for it themselves. Not so, however, Senators Sampson and Smith are using campaign funds, which I'm sure delights their contributors.

- The defense rested in the trial of State Senator Hiram Monserrate without calling him to the stand. "We don't need to do anyone's work for them," said his slick lawyer Joseph Tacopino. With his girlfriend not having testified directly about the incident, neither of the two principals were able to tell their story of just what transpired. Justice William M. Erlbaum will have to make his decision (in the non-jury trial), following next week's closing arguments, based on what I found to be undefinitive visual evidence of the aftermath of the incident, and the she-said/she-said accounts of what the victim did or did not say at the hospital. “I don’t know how this thing is going to turn out as we sit here today,” the judge said. But I'd be pretty shocked if Monserrate is not acquitted of the most serious charges against him.