El Lefty Malo

The New Lincecum Rules

2012-05-26T04:24:05Z

I get it. Two-time Cy Younger, staff ace, 20-million-dollar man, he gets every last thread of rope. And Bruce Bochy and Dave Righetti certainly gave it to Tim Lincecum Friday night. He was almost nearly practically the old Timmah through five innings, save a few weird moments when the strike zone was as elusive and shifty as Ben Orr's voice at the start of "Moving In Stereo." It's in the left speaker. No, dude, the right one. Whoa. The Cars.

But then the wheels came off -- again -- and the scrubby palookas at the bottom of the Marlins' order, guys hitting .106 and .170 and about as popular in South Florida as Fidel Castro's personal masseuse, turned into the 1976 Reds, and once again Lincecum was slumping into the showers. Sure, Bochy came to get him a batter too late. Or two. But I get it. We all wanted so badly to see him finish that inning, even if it meant a final line of six innings, three runs, and a pat on the back for a "quality start." The heart ruled the head.

But no more. That's it. Here, now, I propose the new Lincecum rules. At the first sign of a blow-up inning, get the bullpen going. Third inning, fourth inning, fifth... it doesn't matter. Think Barry Zito, 2009. Or 2010. Or 2011. No extra rope. No Cy Young cushion. Plan the bullpen around the dreaded Lincecum start. That's where we've landed, folks: Lincecum Day is the first chapter in the Worst-Case Scenario Handbook. Get us safely through five, Timmy, and we'll be happy. Six is gravy. Seven is heaven. Sorry, bub, but that's the way it's gotta be for a while.

Slaying A Dragon, And Settling A Bet

2012-05-25T03:59:15Z

The best part of tonight's game in Miami was having fun at the expense of the Giants' second greatest nemesis. Number one, of course, is Clayton Kershaw, whom the Giants beat in a very different kind of game earlier this year, but just behind him the past couple years has been Anibal Sanchez. I swear, when Giancarlo Stanton hit that home run to Bermuda in the second inning, I mumbled in the car, "Game over."

But a series of well-placed hits finally drove Sanchez from the game in the sixth, and it was all "Florida: Weird!" for the rest of the evening. Also: Nice of the Giants to play a game in which a ball hit by Stanton that leaves a smoking hole in a bleacher seat doesn't have much affect on the game's outcome.

Speaking of weird, it seems two readers of this blog made a friendly bet back in February in my comments space, and now they're disputatin' on another Web site and have called in the original sheriff. I'm here for the final word. The bet was that, at the 40-game mark, Brandon Crawford would not have his starting job anymore.

I think within the first 40 games he will be benched. He may still stick around with the big club but one or two starts a week to me means he has lost his job.

The challenge was accepted, and the stakes were set at tickets to a Giants game this year. Crawford has sat for a few games here and there, been pinch-hit for in a few more, but without a doubt Brandon Crawford has been and continues to be the Giants' starting shortstop. It doesn't matter what might have happened if Pablo Sandoval or Ryan Theriot hadn't gone on the DL. A bet's a bet. Pato, you owe Shankbone some tickets, my friend.

Hector Sanchez Giveth and Taketh Away

2012-05-24T00:12:29Z

Fast post this evening with a fast thought: Wednesday's game was all about Hector Sanchez. The first inning was a debacle, of course, with six runs scoring for Milwaukee as the Giants let the ugly rain down: Barry Zito's walks, Barry Zito's throwing error, Brandon Crawford's error, the opposing pitcher's double off Barry Zito, plus a freaky leg injury (not Barry Zito's).

Wait, did I just write that the game was all about Hector Sanchez? There seems to be an awful lot of "Barry Zito" and "ugly" in the previous sentence. Forgive my hyperbole, bear with me, and hark back to Ryan Braun's appearance in the first inning. Zito's 3-2 pitch, a cutter or fastball, was right over the plate and above the knees, it seemed. But Sanchez caught it awkwardly and it was called ball four by umpire Jeff Kellogg, who steadfastly called strikes on pitches below the knees all game, no less. Indeed, the Brewers got that call time and again, which is strong evidence that their catcher Jonathan Lucroy, well known for his pitch-framing ability, was responsible.

Let's flip it around. I submit that Sanchez's awful frame job cost Zito a strikeout of Braun in that key situation. Instead of first and second, one out, the Brewers had bases loaded, no out. If everything else in the inning played out the same in this new parallel universe where Hector The Good Framer squats, Milwaukee would have scored three runs, not six.

That's the giveth away part. You could say Hector took back those runs with his three-run double, and you'd be right. But it's not really an equal exchange. (He also struck out later with two out and men on second and third, and Milwaukee's win expectancy jumped from 81% to 86%.) Sanchez's win expectancy for the game was below zero -- chew on that for a moment. He contributed negatively to the loss, despite a three-run double. And that doesn't factor in his defense. I'm not saying he was more reason for the loss than Zito, and perhaps it's unfair to pin those extra three Milwaukee runs in the first on Sanchez. But it sure would've been interesting to see how the game played out if he had a steadier glove hand behind the plate.

Yes, catchers really do influence calls of balls and strikes. Read this. (And yes, Jonathan Lucroy is the star of the show.)

Hector Sends The Giants Back Happy To The Hotel

2012-05-22T06:13:21Z

Giants win 4-3. For a team so lacking in power, how funny that the two catchers supplied the bookends to this game, a home run in the first and a game-winner in the 14th. Between them was a whole lot of superb Bumgarner, another Brandon Crawford error with terrible timing, one hanging slider to Ryan Braun, and a whole lot of second guessing of Bruce Bochy, which I'll get to in a moment.

But first, Crawford's error in the 8th was huge. It came on what should have been the third out. Instead it gave Braun a chance to hit, and 500,000 Giants fans began whispering "Just keep him in the yard." Bumgarner tried to bury a two-strike slider or cutter down and in. It stayed up, and Braun launched it. The war of attrition began, and instead of bringing in young Edlefsen or journeyman Loux to soak up innings, Bochy stuck to his best relievers, even bringing Casilla in for what eventually became a two-inning stint. Giants' relievers threw five extra innings, and if there are more overtimes or a couple starters get knocked out early on this tough road trip, the bullpen could get ragged fast. It's something the pop-gun Giants can ill afford. They aren't likely to cruise to lopsided victories in the next week, especially in the upcoming four-game series against a tough Miami staff that always mows them down. Nothing would be finer than for Cainer to go niner Tuesday evening.

About Bochy: Debatable decision #1 came in the top of the 8th. The Giants had first and third, one out, and Bochy let Brett Pill hit against Frankie Rodriguez even though Brandon Belt was on the bench. Perhaps he thought Pill had a better chance to get a ball airborne, what with his better slugging this year. It wasn't completely a no-brainer to bring in Belt, who actually has a higher K-rate this year than Pill, even factoring in lefty-righty splits. But there's no question that Belt, despite the Ks and lack of power this year, was and is much more likely to reach base. And with a guy as erratic as K-Rod on the mound, the situation called for a discerning eye, not for a guy who would try to get the run in by swinging at bad pitches. Also: Belt is faster, less likely to get doubled up. (Pill eventually grounded to third and Melky was thrown out at home trying to score.)

Decision #2: Back to Bumgarner vs. Braun. Sergio Romo was greased up and ready to go, but Boch stuck with Bumgarner. My heart understands the decision: Let the kid finish it. It was the manly thing to do. And Bumgarner seemed to be getting stronger in the late innings. But, like, hello: Sergio Romo. One of the world's most dominant relief pitchers, especially against right handed batters, was ready to slide his piece. I haven't seen the post-game comments yet, but I'll bet Bochy says something to the effect of "I listened to my heart, but I should have gone with my head." (Which happens to be about 22 times larger than his heart.)

To his credit, Bochy later ignored the book that says managers have to preserve their closers in aspic on the road in extra innings just in case their team takes a lead. Boch let Casilla pitch the 13th to "save" the tie, and he blew through the Brew Crew. So much better than Loux or Edlefsen in that situation. I think the book should say, "Never lose an extra inning game without having used your best relief pitcher." A bit of redemption there for Bochy. It's nice when a crummy day at the office ends with something going right.

Friday Notes: Bochy's Job and the Tri-Levered Trade-Evaluation Machine

2012-05-21T21:45:16Z

- Has anyone noticed the world hasn't collapsed since Pablo Sandoval went on the DL? Since Miami's sweep at Mays Field and Pablo's injury news, the Giants are 12-8. That's .600 ball. It's only felt worse because the Dodgers have gone 37-1 over the same span. During that time, Bruce Bochy installed Gregor Blanco as the leadoff guy, moved Angel Pagan south in the lineup, made Joaquin Arias the regular third baseman, and shifted Brandon Crawford to the 2-hole. All of which, more or less, is working.

Hank does the math so you don't have to. I quibbled on Twitter with the word "slight," and I fear I fell into the sarchasm. Hank probably knows that a nearly 100-point jump in OBP and 40-point jump in SLG aren't slight improvements, especially when that OBP is coming near the top of the order. Small sample size, of course, and with Crawford's obvious flaws, good pitchers like Anibal Sanchez will continue to exploit him. But so far this year, with the lineup juggling and the very underrated bullpen juggling Bochy has had to do, I'm giving Boch above-average marks. He's pressing some right buttons, and I don't think it's just luck. Despite the best record in baseball, the Dodgers haven't been able to run away and hide from the Giants.

- If I had the time to build my own trade-evaluation machine, complete with bubbling beakers, steam whistles and small rodents in spinning cages, it would have three levers. Lever One: Pull it right after the trade, and the machine would spit out instant punditry based on the players' previous track record and forward projections. Pull the second lever several months after the trade. Call it the "short-term returns" lever. And the third would be the historical lever, when all was said and done and the years of knock-on effects had subsided. With Brian Sabean's two off-season trades, the first lever produced lukewarm opinions, generally, though the Melky-for-Dirty trade elicited more than its share of LOLs, especially from those who had watched Melky in his Yankee and Brave days.

I think it's safe to say we can pull the second lever, or perhaps you prefer to wait til the All-Star break. But right now, a third of the way into the season, Brian Sabean is da champeen. Are we returning to the pre-AJ Pierzynski days, when Sabean had the golden touch? For those with short-term memories, go back and look. His trade record from 1997 to 2003 was shockingly good. Ah, you say, but there's the Carlos Beltran trade. Read on, my friends....

- A commenter left a question about Carlos Beltran a few days ago, and I realized I never weighed in on Beltran's recent comments. In case you missed them:

"I don't think they made an effort at all," Beltran said upon his return to San Francisco with the Cardinals on Wednesday. "They didn't call my agent. At the same time, this is business. They knew I was available. I expressed I wanted to come back.

"At the end of the day, they didn't call and St. Louis was the best fit for me. I really enjoyed my time here. But at the end of the day, it was not my decision."

The Giants said they made an offer in December close to what Beltran eventually accepted from St. Louis.

Someone's either fibbing or misinformed. Or both. I have no idea which. Despite the balky knee, Beltran would look great as the Giants' left fielder. Would an early Beltran re-signing have started a chain of events that led to no Melky, many more at-bats for Nate Schierholtz, Andres Torres still in center field, and Jonathan Sanchez taking over as closer from an injured Brian Wilson? Answers: Probably, yes, perhaps, and wouldn't that be fun. But really, who the heck knows. Please feel free to tweet me photos of the obsessive-compulsive flow charts you've drawn to make sense of this parallel Beltran-as-Giant universe. I'll post the best ones.

But the bottom line is, I wouldn't put too much stock in Beltran's comments. Players say all kinds of things. "I expressed I wanted to come back" could mean "I wanted to come back if they guaranteed me three years" or some other demand the Giants probably weren't interested in. My guess is there was some back and forth with the agent -- general tire kickin', if you like -- but obviously no full-court press. I whimsically suggested in early December, after the Pagan and Melky trades, that the Giants could free up the cash to match whatever offer Beltran ultimately received (like, ahem, 2 years, $26 M from St. Louis). That obviously didn't happen.

Did the inability to re-sign Beltran put the final stamp of failure on the Beltran-for-Zack Wheeler trade? Absolutely not. I was convinced at the time of the trade (Lever #1) that it was a great move. Top pitching prospect, still raw, still a few years away from the big leagues at best, for the best hitter available when your offense-thin team is four games atop the division with two months to go? If the Giants had no track record of turning out homegrown pitchers, I'd have balked. But it was trading from strength. Beltran got hurt for a couple weeks, then the rest of the team went in the tank even as Beltran came back and hit like his vintage self. When the Diamondbacks won the division, the trade didn't do what it was supposed to. (Lever #2.) If history shows that this was the decade that Zack Wheeler became an ace and the Giants' pitching talent withered away, Lever #3 will not look kindly upon the trade.

Unhappy Lincecum Day

2012-05-21T04:04:55Z

It's now official: Every fifth San Francisco Giant game is no longer a can't-miss event. Used to be that on the Freaky Fifth, aka Happy Lincecum Day, you'd come to the park and see, if not a Giants win, at least a well-pitched game from Lincecum and a teeth-gnashing 2-1 loss. If it was unhappy, it probably wasn't Timmy's fault.

But now, his April slump has carried well into May and shows no signs of abating. Lincecum Day has all the promise of a dental checkup. Even if you're in the clear, no cavities, no fillings, it still involves the whining rubber polishing tool, a brute-force flossing session with a hygienist wearing rubber gloves, and, oh fuck, the tiny pin-sharp plaque-scraping pick. Please no.

Fortunately, all other systems are cautiously go right now for the Giants. Hitters are hitting lots of line drives. Hitters are not swinging when they don't have to. Hitters are getting runners home from third base with less than two outs. Relievers are relieving, in the true sense of the word. Non-Lincecum starters are doing their job. Even the defensive follies have tapered off the last few days, except for Manny Burriss's I-want-him-out-of-here-NOW error in the ninth inning Friday night. It's as if the Giants rubbed all their error cooties on the Cardinals' dugout bench Wednesday night and the cooties took 12 hours to work their way into the Cardinals' bloodstream, with the first symptoms showing Thursday afternoon. Note to National League teams: Use plenty of sanitizer after shaking the Cardinals' hands.

Look! It's the fix-the-Giants checklist:

- Tighten up the D (check)
- Take more walks (check)
- Get runners home from third with less than two outs (check)
- Trade for Jamey Carroll (not yet)
- Sign Brad Penny to a minor-league contract (check)

Hey ho, what's that? You didn't see the news this weekend that Penny has crawled back from Japan? Apparently his tourist visa expired. He made one start for Fukuoka, complained of a sore arm, and got his release. The Giants say he's healthy, and he'll get in some minor-league work, but don't be surprised to see him in the SF bullpen soon.

If it doesn't work out, oh well. But all he has to do is be better than Shane Loux or Steve Edlefsen. There are always over-the-hill relief arms available from the scrap heap. Why Penny, specifically? Despite a few injury-plagued years he's still ranked among the hardest throwers of the past decade. And he's still relatively young. He turns 34 this week. (Happy birthday, Brad!) And guess whose bullpen is ranked last in fastball velocity? I know full well that throwing hard doesn't equal throwing well, and the Giants with Sergio Romo and Javy Lopez could just as well say "We don't need no stinkin' heat." And Penny, despite averaging well above 90 this decade, hasn't pitched well since his late-season stint with the Giants. His heat has never translated into lots of strikeouts, either (career 6 K/9 rate). But perhaps the Giants can catch a little magic. Perhaps Penny is returning with humility from Japan and sees a new path forward as a one-inning reliever, and if any team has the braintrust to give him a career makeover, it's the Giants. It's the kind of low-cost insurance policy they have prospered with the past few years.

I don't think we're at the point of seriously considering Penny as insurance for Tim Lincecum, who will keep getting his turn in the rotation as long as he has stretches of two or three innings like he had to start Sunday's game (striking out five) or to start the game he pitched in Dodger Stadium a couple weeks ago. Both times, though, the good cheer faded fast, and the Tony Gwynn Jrs and Josh Donaldsons and Colin Cowgills of the world made Lincecum look like a flustered kid making his Double-A debut for Midland. That's what's so frustrating. We've seen the brilliant sun of Cy Lincecum shine through from time to time, but then the fog inevitably rolls back in.

The Definition of Insanity Is Proposing Desperation Trades For Middle Infielders

2012-05-16T22:15:40Z

[UPDATE: After I wrote this post Bochy said Joaquin Arias isn't badly hurt and will return Thursday. Doesn't change my mind one bit.]

As I write this, Bruce Bochy has posted a lineup with Manny Burriss playing third base and hitting ninth, behind Madison Bumgarner. If it weren't Burriss but someone else who could hit a ball more than 45 feet, I would actually think, hey, how cool.

Also of note: No Joaquin Arias. Let's assume for a moment that Joaquin Arias won't be able to play for a while. I know, the x-rays were negative, but until I see him hit and field without pain, I'm not convinced. He took that 93-MPH fastball in a bad, bad place. If he goes on the DL, no doubt Conor Gillaspie comes back up. But no, wait, I believe he has to stay in the minors for ten days. He was sent down Sunday.

So the Giants are in a pickle. Might Nick Noonan, former first-round draft pick who has risen to Triple-A without a single notable minor-league season, be next up?

I have a better idea. Find a mediocre middle infielder whose team is going nowhere and would like to dump his contract. Take said contract off the team's hands in exchange for a crappy prospect. This isn't as easy as it looks, because the Dodgers currently employ half the world's mediocre middle infielders, and the Giants and Dodgers simply don't make trades with each other.

But I've got someone in mind: This guy. Jamey Carroll. He's in his late 30s, he's off to a slow start (.222 / .319 / .262) he's due $6.75 M through 2013, and he has no power. But with a career OBP of .356 through 2011, he gets on base (Manny Burriss, take note), and he won't embarrass himself at second base if he continues to age gracefully.

I stumped for Carroll this winter as middle-infield insurance in 2012 and potential starting second baseman in 2013, and boy, do I look really smart in hindsight. (That's the only way I ever look smart.)

It's not too late! Would the Twins trade him? I have no idea. Would the Giants trade for him? Let me ask that question a different way: If you ran the Giants and you were willing to absorb Carroll's salary, whom would you be willing to trade for Carroll? Burriss? (Yes, please.) Conor Gillaspie? Nick Noonan? Charlie Culberson? How about this: Nate Schierholtz?

Sure, this would be a desperate move, but we all agree these are desperate times. The odds grow longer each day of Freddy Sanchez ever wearing the black and orange again. And it actually would make sense for 2013, when the current cast of scrubs the Giants are trying at 2B still won't likely be ready for prime time.

With Carroll, the Giants at least would have a guy who could hit second, play second, and even platoon at short once in a while. When Sandoval returns, the lineup could look like this:

Blanco RF
Carroll 2B
Melky LF
Sandoval 3B
Posey C
Pagan CF
Belt 1B
Crawford SS

Assuming the wrist isn't terribly damaged, Arias would float as utility guy, Culberson would go back to AAA, and Burriss would be kept under glass, to be used only as late-game pinch-runner.

Where in SF #8 and #9 (Redux)

2012-05-15T23:24:56Z

I've already sent these out via Twitter, but some of you ain't the tweetin' kind.

A quick rules refresher: One point for the general location, two points for being specific, three points for dazzling me with inside info. Please don't post answers in the comments. Email me at leftymalo , gmail, blah blah blah.

What's Keeping the Giants Afloat

2012-05-14T22:45:55Z

The Giants started the week six games back, and after the stirring win Monday night, they remain so. A ton of frustration, no panic, but last night's game was also a microcosmic reminder of how this deeply flawed team is managing to stay within hailing distance of the Dodgers.

First, the offense: The key hits in the bottom of the 8th from Buster Posey and Brett Pill were nothing more than well-placed ground balls. Ground ball singles are a wonderful case study for human cognitive bias. The punditry meme last night: gritty at-bats, not giving in, two-strike approach, get the job done. But if either of those grounders, especially Buster's, were a foot in either direction, we'd be talking about terrible RISP rates, lack of power, not getting the job done. Indeed, Buster could have hit the ball a lot harder but right at the shortstop, and it would've been 6-4-3, end of inning, a huge opportunity blown sky-high. I'm not trying to be a killjoy, but it's important to note that, other than Gregor Blanco's home run, the Giants' offense Monday was built more on speed and lucky placement. This generally is not a good formula.

Sorry, "luck and speed" is not the answer to the question in this post's title. Pitching is the answer, duh, and we all know how good the starting pitchers are, 1 to 5 right now. Ryan Vogelsong somehow managed to keep the Rockies from running away and hiding last night.

But less obviously excellent is the bullpen, which to the naked eye has had its ups and downs this year, not the least of which being the loss of Brian Wilson. Sure, Santiago Casilla has shown plenty of moxie and nastiness to replace Wilson ably, but taking Casilla's place in the middle innings has been Dan Otero or Steve Edlefsen. Out with Wilson, in with one of those two. That's a serious drop-off.

And here's the secret ingredient to the bullpen's quietly tasty sauce: Only .59 home runs allowed per 9 innings, third best rate in the majors. That's 20 home runs, total. Imagine if that rate was an even 1.00, which would put them around the league average. The total home runs would jump to 34, nearly an extra home run every two games. With all the close games the Giants play, those extra late-inning runs -- almost certainly more than 14 -- would be killers. The home run prevention has been especially important, because the bullpen isn't being particularly stingy with the walks: 3.18 per 9 innings, good for 13th in baseball. Nor has it stranded a ton of runners, with a mediocre 71.9% left-on-base rate, and its K-rate isn't much to brag about, very middle of the pack with a 7.23 K/9 rate.

So keep on keeping the ball in the ballpark, relievers, and keep those starters healthy; on the other side of the ball, keep hitting 450-foot home runs, Gregor Blanco, and keep Buster's ankle relatively happy, and this team should stay afloat until Pablo Sandoval returns.

Wait, I almost forgot: Melky Cabrera.

The Giants Make Mother's Day Moves

2012-05-13T18:55:35Z

I'll be out picnicking today with all kinds of mothers who don't take kindly to baseball on the radio, but here are a few pre-game thoughts in light of the roster moves.

After last night's all-Matt-Cain-all-the-time win, I was ready to designate Brandon Crawford as triple-A toast. Not give up on him entirely, mind you, but to admit my optimism this spring was premature. He needs time in the minors. No glove, Brandon, no love, and the costly errors keep piling up.

Apparently the Giants brass have other ideas. Conor Gillaspie, who had shown himself spectacularly unready to be a big league third baseman, is the one going to Fresno, along with Travis Blackley, and Charlie Culberson is coming up to play second base. Culberson...I've heard that name somewhere...oh, right. Some blogger wrote this five days ago:

"Panic trades aren't going to happen, and Charlie Culberson isn't coming up from Fresno..."

What a blowhard. Fact is, even the suspect Culberson, who had nearly washed out as a prospect until he revived his career with a decent Arizona Fall League showing at the end of 2010, has a better shot of doing something with the bat than Emmanuel Burriss, whose offensive repertoire has been reduced to choppers in front of the plate that he beats out 25% of the time.

But don't hold your breath. If you like the Giants' swing-at-anything approach, you'll love Culberson. The guy has a career .313 minor-league OBP. Add that approach to the nerves of a big-league debut, and Culberson will be lucky to see anything but sliders in the dirt. No reason to throw him a pitch near the strike zone until he proves he can lay off.

This is what it's come to, unfortunately: Hope that a career minor-league hacker can give the Giants something, anything more than they've been getting, and in doing so, introduce a greater chance of more defensive chicanery. It's spaghetti-against-the-wall time. And thus we reach my first no-puches-pulled criticism of the Giant front office's off-season. The big lie they told us this winter was that Posey and Freddy Sanchez's returns would be the equivalent of trading for two All-Stars, or whatever language they used. Pretending that the pickle they are today, with Freddy's return slated optimistically for June 2014, was not within the realm of possibilty, was pure Orwellian mumbo-jumbo. They didn't have to get Carlos Beltran to compensate -- in fact, I agree with Hank Schulman that Beltran probably wouldn't have returned, anyway --

http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2012/05/12/criticize-the-sf-giants-front-office-if-you-want-but-not-for-the-carlos-beltran-saga/

[sorry, for some reason my blog software refuses to make some links correctly]

-- but someone to serve as a real replacement for Sanchez would've been great.

Who knows. Perhaps Culberson will have one of those hot months that off-brand prospects sometimes do upon arrival, and he'll bridge the gap until Freddy returns to give the Giants perfectly adequate work for the rest of the year, and we'll be laughing in October about that silly Burriss/Theriot experiment in April.

And now with Posey's ankle feeling "cranky" --

http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2012/05/13/giants-promote-and-start-a-23-year-old-second-baseman-buster-poseys-ankle-cranky/

-- this could soon devolve into a season of prospect evaluation and trades of a couple vets whose presence on the roster is, in the short-term, less valuable than the return they can fetch. I have a couple in mind, but I'll save that for later.

And For A Night, The Ship Steadied

2012-05-09T17:00:00Z

The Giants beat Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers Tuesday night in the only likely fashion for them: 1) Have a batter take a big swing and run into one of Kershaw's three poorly located pitches on the night, then beat back the blue hordes either with 2a) flawless pitching or 2b) flawless defense. The Giants went with 1) and 2b), turning four double plays that on previous nights would have had them tripping on their shoelaces.

Even still, there was luck involved. The bad bunt by Uribe in the seventh let Posey throw to third for the force, and on third baseman Joaquin Arias' throw across the diamond Brandon Belt looked like he stretched off the bag. The umpire at first ruled Uribe out.

On the double play in the first -- a grounder to Arias with the runner on first moving with the pitch -- Brandon Crawford made it to second base, as the cover guy on the steal, before second baseman Ryan Theriot arrived. Even with two teammates at second base, Arias threw it without so much as a double-take, and the double play was completed, leaving Matt Kemp to hit with the bases empty. Monday night, there would have been mass confusion, infielders' heads knocking together with coconut sounds, and Dodger runners scampering about like spring lambs.

In other news, the Brandons acquitted themselves well against Kershaw. Belt drew a disciplined walk and got good wood on a pitch but lined out deep to right. Crawford had a single. Their defense was key, too. Crawford was the smoothie we saw last year, and Belt saved the game in the 8th on yet another double play. Theriot spiked his relay into the dirt, but Belt made the short-hop scoop. Without that, the tying run would have scored, and perhaps the go-ahead run, too.

For all the justified talk of the Giants' perennial hackitude -- once again they rule the world in swinging at pitches outside the strike zone -- Bochy could actually build a lineup with strong on-base percentage in the top half, even with Sandoval gone:

CF Blanco .362

1B Belt .379

RF Cabrera .370

(3B Sandoval .375)

C Posey .362

LF Pill .341

I like the idea of Belt hitting second. He'll take pitches, give Blanco a chance to steal, or he'll have a big hole between first and second to shoot for. Right now, Pagan as leadoff hitter is a myth the Giants hope comes true. He's never been a good one in the past, and the sub-.300 OBP right now is deadly at the top. His saving grace right now is when he hits a ball in the gap, it's just as likely to be a triple as a double. I'm not saying glue him to the bench, but it's time to start re-thinking how to use him until he learns to work a count better.

A team can have the patience and on-base percentage of Job, but if no one's driving the runners home, it's just more frustration of Biblical proportions. But if a team isn't driving in runs in droves, getting on base with frequency accomplishes at least two things: It wears out the opposition's starting pitcher faster and turns the game over to the soft underbelly of middle relief; and it creates room for luck. The bad bounce, the botched play by the other shortstop, the well-placed looping line drive that finds a gap, the blown call in your favor: if you don't have runners on base, you can't take advantage. Right now, the Giants need to take as much advantage as possible.

Giants' Web Site Discovers Unhelpful Errors

2012-05-08T18:50:58Z

Headline this morning on SFGiants.com: "Errors don't help Giants' cause in loss."

"Hey," thinks someone who has no clue what happened last night, "Errors didn't help the cause? Odd. I should click on that and see what... ARGAGGGHHHHH. IT BURNS. MAKE IT STOP. MOMMY."

The theme of the post-game indigestion was defense, and as I mused a few days ago, there aren't obvious ways to fix it unless the Giants clone Joaquin Arias (MVP! MVP!) and put him at second, third and short. One big problem is the essential guys and the pitchers are playing the field poorly, too. What is Bochy supposed to do, not bring in Steve Edlefsen or Travis Blackley for fear that they'll royally screw up a bunt play? Bench Buster Posey entirely when he's not catching? (For those who didn't follow last night's game, Buster didn't look so swift at first base.)

There really are no obvious solutions. We've reached grit-your-teeth time. The current roster-inhabiting Giants will have to sprinkle magic Belanger dust on their gloves and hope for the best. Panic trades aren't going to happen, and Charlie Culberson isn't coming up from Fresno to show Ryan Theriot how to move laterally or hit with runners in scoring position.

With all the speculation that Bochy & Co. will put the Giants' best defenders on the field tonight, Kershaw-itis be damned, here's my best guess at the lineup:

- LF Blanco
- CF Pagan
- RF Cabrera
- C Posey
- 1B Pill
- SS Arias
- 2B Theriot
- 3B Burriss
- P Vogelsong

It's feeling particularly 2008-ish around here.

The 2012 Dave Flemming Interview, Part 2

2012-05-07T15:26:00Z

Here's part two of my interview with Giants' broadcaster Dave Flemming. Part one mainly focused on the broadcasting craft; you can find it here. Part two is about the Giants' organization, farm system, analytics, Brandon Belt Brandon Belt Brandon Belt, the Zito resurgence, and at the end, for dessert, Dave's food recommendations for every National League city.

El Lefty Malo: OK, let's have some prospect talk: We know about Gary Brown, Joe Panik, Heath Hembree, Hector Sanchez, and Tommy Joseph to some extent. Is there an under-the-radar kid you've seen the past year who has made an impression?

Dave Flemming: I have heard great things very early about Josh Osich, a pitcher the Giants took in last year's draft who has questions about his arm health but apparently really impressed this spring at the facility. They are excited about him, and he sure looks the part. And they love the young pitcher Kyle Crick. I do wish that I got to see more of the young guys, I really enjoy that.

ELM: With Brian Wilson's season-ending surgery, do the Giants have the arms in the farm system to bolster the bullpen without a trade this year?

DF: I think we will see Hembree sooner rather than later, he is doing some special things. He will help this team. But I imagine a quiet trade for a relief arm near the deadline is a distinct possibility. Sabean has an excellent track record with those type of deals.

ELM: Only one week into the season, and the Brandon Belt situation became, well, a situation. Can you give us any insight? If Belt truly has a hole in his swing that's so obvious the Giants don't mind talking about it in public, why don't they send him back to Fresno to fix it?

DF: I think one of the real challenges in player development in the last ten years or so is the dearth of talent at the AA and AAA levels to challenge an advanced young player like Belt. In other words, Belt has dominated AAA and would again if they sent him back there. But that does not always mean that a player is ready for big league ball. It can mean that, but not always.

The Giants still very much believe in Belt. He is still a young player in terms of pro experience. Remember the Giants helped him make some mechanical changes after they drafted him that turned him from a player no one was talking about to a top prospect in the game. So I do think the Giants deserve some benefit of the doubt with regard to their understanding of his talent.

It's a tough situation. The Giants don't want to criticize the kid publicly, they want to nurture his talent, and they are very eager for him to be a part of the everyday lineup. But they also (in my opinion) believe that simply giving him extended at bats at the big league level is not going to solve a fundamental problem in his hitting approach that they believe is holding him back from realizing his full potential. They believe that he needs to make a few changes to become a big league ready hitter. And Brandon, like many young players, seems reluctant to make those changes. Not because he is a bad kid or is lazy. But the Giants want him to work on this stuff, and I don't think they feel like doing that against minor league pitching is accomplishing much of anything. So it is a tough spot.

Giants fans can differ. Many feel like that with a long, extended run of playing time, Belt will be up to speed and will be a valuable part of the big league team. But the Giants watch his major league at bats and still want some work done.

ELM: Matt Cain, opening day. Can you remember a better-pitched game by a Giant since you've begun broadcasting? [Ed. Note: I asked this question before the Cain-Cliff Lee duel on April 18.]

DF: Tossing aside the postseason, where those Lincecum and Bumgarner games were so memorable, a couple others come to mind. I put Cain's opening day start above the Sanchez no hitter; he was more dominant than Jonathan. The one that really stands out to me is Jason Schmidt in 2004 vs the Red Sox. That was such a powerful Red Sox offense, and Schmidt threw a one hit shutout against them. It was an amazing performance, quality of opponent considered. I will never forget the Red Sox announcers mid-game coming into our booth and saying, "That is his change up? We don't see anything that nasty in the American League." The Sox were stunned how good he was.

ELM: Any chance Barry Zito's shutout in Colorado was just as good as Cain, perhaps better? Consider the venue, the opposing lineup, and the must-win-ness of the situation...

DF: No, I don't think that! But it was still really impressive.

ELM: Much was made of Zito's work with Tom House this winter, and [pitching coach] Dave Righetti's emergency "surgery" on Zito's mechanics just before Opening Day. With a few strong starts in the books, can you tell what Zito is doing differently? How much might still be credited to House's work (ie, "the crouch")?

DF: I don't know. Perhaps House deserves some credit. I have heard from the Giants for years that Zito's side sessions and pregame warmups often featured impeccable command, and then the game would start and that would disappear. Who knows, but he does look to me like some extra confidence is also helping him. But there has to be some mechanical/physical improvement as well.

ELM: A couple years ago there was much ado about the fancy cameras installed at Mays Field to create a better defense evaluation system. What ever became of that?

DF: Good question, I am not sure. I will ask. But I do want to make a point: the Giants have several very smart analysts in the baseball department who are doing cutting-edge stuff in terms of statistical analysis and also using technology to evaluate player performance. Just because Sabean doesn't talk about it does not mean it isn't going on, and at a high level.

ELM: Do you know of any moves -- either personnel moves or on-field positioning -- that might have been based on information from the new camera system?

DF: I don't know of any moves of that sort, but I do know the Giants use the defensive metrics quite a bit, and try to sort through all of that data to determine who is playing defense well. Still looking for an answer.

[Ed. Note: According to this article, the Giants have not only deployed the system, called Fieldf/x, but have a new one, Controlf/x, coming soon to measure how close a pitcher is getting to his catcher's target.]

ELM: For my readers who go on road trips to see the Giants, what are your favorite eating spots? Give us a range, if you would, from divey joints to fancy pants.

DF: I'll try not to go overboard, but I'll give away one spot in each city:

Los Angeles - Too many to name, but a great taqueria just outside downtown is El Parian on Pico. Wonderful tacos/burritos.

San Diego - Food in ballpark not great, so I grab fish and chips at Tin Fish just outside. Not incredible, but good beach food.

Colorado - Steubens is a good diner for lunch/weekend brunch, close to downtown.

Phoenix - just for the setting, I like going to the Biltmore Hotel and sitting on their patio for fish tacos, which are good.

Chicago - Another wonderful food city. I have tried many, and I think the best steak is at David Burke's. Delicious, but pricey. Girl and a Goat also great food.

Cincinnati - My only advice: Avoid Skyline Chili! Not my style.

Houston - Original Irma's, in a desolate spot downtown near the ballpark. No menu, just a couple choices each day. But great Mexican home cooking.

Milwaukee - I love the Milwaukee public market, sort of like a mini Ferry Building. Many good choices.

Pittsburgh - Just go to the Strip District and walk around, all kinds of food carts, little shops, and good stuff to eat.

St Louis - The Good Pie. A long walk from downtown, but really good wood fired pizza and salad. Not a great food town.

Atlanta - Woodfire Grill is delicious!

Miami - Whip out the wallet for the total South Beach scene at Prime 112.

New York - Too many spots even to start. Babbo and Po in the village are great, Ess A Bagel for bagel and coffee, Scarpetta is good, and for a true fine dining experience Le Bernadin is still wonderful after many years, perhaps the best fish restaurant in the US.

Philadelphia - Another wonderful food town. Reading Terminal Market has tons of lunch choices, a la the Ferry Building. [Ed. Note: Specifically, the roast pork and spinach sandwich at DiNic's.] Devon for seafood on Rittenhouse Square.

Washington - My mom's crab cakes, best in town.

Seattle - Le Panier is, along with Tartine in SF, the best pastry shop I have found in the country.

I should charge for all that info!

ELM: If you go, dear readers, tell 'em Dave sent you.

What Can The Giants Fix Right Now?

2012-05-04T18:16:23Z

So, uh, yeah. OK. Great. I'm rethinking this whole "baseball-fan-season-ticket-blog" thing. I should spend my time more constructively volunteering at a homeless shelter, or writing poetry about my kids, or engineering a smart-phone app that downloads world peace.

Instead of writing about my recurring dream that features Nate Schierholtz popping up to shallow left with the tying run on second and no outs, I could procrastinate and post another "Where in SF" picture. (I should do that anyway.)

But no. You want answers. You want solutions. You want to know how the Giants are going to keep the wheels from falling off completely. The easiest way is to do what they did last year when Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey were disabled. Just win, baby, and with a far crappier band of bat-handling misfits than they have now. Maybe Conor Gillaspie will hit .280 with gap power. Maybe Brandon Belt will play every day and, uh, hit .280 with gap power. (Another recurring dream I have: I'm talking baseball with a friend, and every time I try to say "Brandon Belt," the words "Lyle Overbay" come out of my mouth. Also, I'm in grade school, I've lost my pants, and everyone is laughing at my tighty-whities.)

I like moving Pagan down the order. I like Gregor Blanco leading off with orders to get on base by any means necessary. I like Joaquin Arias as Brandon Crawford's platoon-mate. So there's that. I like the idea of giving Melky Cabrera a rest once in a while. I'm starting to worry about Hector Sanchez.

If nothing else, this team needs to fix the defense. You probably know that the Giants have committed 28 errors in 25 games, the second-highest total in baseball. Perhaps you don't know that sixteen percent of their runs allowed have been unearned, tied with Baltimore for the highest percentage in the bigs. If that percentage were only 10%, which just eyeballing it seems about the MLB average, they'd have allowed six fewer runs this year. Seeing how the sweeps at the hands of Arizona to start the year and now Miami were all one-run losses, you could argue that six runs is the difference between 0-6 and 3-3 in those games, most of which featured costly glove gaffes. And a record of 15-10 right now would make us all breathe easier. Or hyperventilate less.

The Giants won't get those losses back, but if they can't fix the RISP curse, at least they should tighten up the D. How, I have no freaking clue. But here's a thought: Could Brandon Crawford's jammed left thumb, sustained just before Opening Day, be a cause of his shoddy defense? If so, put him on the damn DL and let him rest for two weeks. He leads the team in errors. Next in line is Pablo, but there's no guarantee his six-week replacements will be any slicker.

Final note on defense: Buster Posey is 2 for 14 throwing out runners. That's not good, and I wonder if teams are seeing something we're not: a rusty release? A slight hesitation to get into throwing position for fear of a batter's backswing? All total speculation. It could be the pitchers, too, and not Posey at all.

Giants Back to .500, Hit Bottom Against Marlins

2012-05-03T05:52:57Z

Despite a nice little ninth-inning comeback, it's easy to argue Wednesday night's game that just ended was to date the ebb tide of the Giants' young season: an excruciating extra-inning loss and an ominous injury to Pablo Sandoval.

There was a spot of bad luck at the bat, what with an actual hit by Brandon Crawford with a runner in scoring position that didn't score the runner, thanks to a great play by Jose Reyes. But otherwise the Giants were dazzled and frazzled by Carlos Zambrano, who tuned his tin-foil beanie to the voices chanting that most Giants can't resist swinging at pitches below the knees and beyond the outside corner. In the ninth, they dinked and doinked and drag-bunted their way to a tie, with more bad luck when Reyes, again, kept a ground-ball single on the infield and prevented a run. Bad luck, yes, but when you're not hitting for power and rely on grounders squeaking through, you make your own bad luck.

The Marlins underscored the lesson when, in the top of the 10th, Giancarlo Stanton continued his frozen rope-fest with a line drive over the left field fence to put Miami back on top.

What else went wrong tonight? Barry Zito decided to revert back to Bad Barry in his fifth start, walking seven before Bochy bestowed mercy upon 40,000 suffering patrons and brought the hook in the fourth inning. Somehow the Marlins only scored two runs against him; well, not somehow. The shocking number of walks, yes, but both runs were directly accountable to bad infield defense. I've been just about the biggest Brandon Crawford supporter, but if he can't turn easy double plays -- he bobbled a grounder in the first and the Giants could only get one out instead of an inning-ending two, leading to a run -- he doesn't have much value on this team. I'm a patient man, but nights like tonight try my patience.

The Marlins' second run came on a Joaquin Arias flub; Arias started at second tonight.

So, to recap: Bad hitting. Bad pitching. Bad defense. I wouldn't be surprised if everyone in the bleachers got ill from bad cha-cha bowls. It was that kind of night.

At least no one tripped over his shoelaces while running the bases. Wait: Pablo Sandoval hurt himself running to first base at some point and had to leave the game. Fantastic. [UPDATE: It was his left hand or wrist, not his leg, and I reserve the right to trade in my sarcasm for a deep howl of existential misery.]

That actually left Ryan Theriot in his spot in the lineup to try to win the game with two out, bases loaded in the ninth. I tweeted that, in fact, I like Theriot in that spot. He won't hit a grand slam, but he'll spoil good pitches, take close ones, and fight fight fight in a spot when all you need is a single. He hit a hard grounder that, according to Jon Miller, might have gone through if not slowed down by the mound. Like I said, though, ground balls have four fielders in their way. Often they find one, no matter how well they're hit.