El Lefty Malo

What to Do With FreddieLoo?

2009-07-10T19:41:32Z

First, a note that Fangraphs has done a Fangraphesque take on my post topic from earlier this week, Jeremy Affeldt’s wowie-zowie ground ball rate this year.

Now let’s talk about Fred Lewis, just like reader 50andstillfly asked for this morning. (I please to aim.) Seeing how the Giants have gone and gotten all Bowkered up, their outfield is extremely crowded. Short-term, Torres and Rowand and Winn and Lewis and Schierholtz and The Big LeBowker can squeeze in, but something’s got to give. Right now the odd man out is Lewis, who is so banished to the doghouse he might as well strap on a leather helmet and goggles and pretend he’s flying a Sopwith Camel.

With all of 10 at-bats in July, he’s basically rotting on the bench. Perhaps Fred could be part of an upcoming trade, but he certainly won’t be a major component. He also could be sent to the minors but he’ll have to clear waivers first, which I don’t see happening. Freddie has his flaws, but if the Giants are giving him away, no doubt there will be takers.

Release him? Only if the Giants see his current malaise of cringeworthy D and out-of-whack swing as irreversible. That’s really the big question: Can Fred be fixed?

I don’t know the answer. No one really knows the answer. He’s shown enough at the big-league level — a great eye, excellent speed, the ability to hit for at least occasional power — that throwing in the towel seems foolish. As recently as this winter, Giants brass, fans, and others were all expecting solid work from him. Statistically, 2009 hasn’t been the disaster so often described in the press. In the field, he’s still above average (according to UZR). At the plate, his discipline numbers aren’t all that different from last year; he’s just swinging and missing a little bit more at strikes. He’s striking out more and hitting with less power, but it’s not like he’s gone in the tank, statistically speaking.

Naked eye-speaking, though, it’s clear something’s wrong.

Here’s my prescription for the Giants. Try to trade him. Get something for him, perhaps as part of a larger package. Don’t give him away for free.

But if no one wants Fred, do what you can to keep him because he might come in handy next year. Winn will probably be gone, Rowand will be a year older, Schierholtz and Bowker might still be big question marks, and Torres will still be a backup outfielder. There probably won’t be reinforcements coming from the minors. Meanwhile, Fred will still be relatively young, cheap, fast, and willing to take a walk. (But in the morning, I’ll be sober.)

If Bowker goes bananas in the next two weeks, he’ll force the Giants’ hand. But if he’s closer to mezzo-mezzo, send him back down to Fresno for more minor-league Bowkermania and tell him to be ready to compete for a big-league job in 2010. Meanwhile, having spent a couple months riding serious pine, Fred might be more sober, too (figuratively), and work his ass off all winter and spring to re-win a roster spot. He might even return to the player he was in 2008 — good, not great, but very useful.

Secret Mays Field Spy Cam!

2009-07-10T16:07:49Z

Quick link this morning: Alan Schwartz of the New York Times breaks the news about a new statistical measurement system currently in testing at our very own Mays Field. If all goes well, it will be deployed in all 30 MLB parks next year.

The eye in the sky — actually several cameras mounted on light towers — records every movement by every fielder, every ball hit or thrown, and every baserunner. How the bazillions of raw data points will turn into something useful hasn’t quite been determined, but no doubt it won’t take long.

Make sure you watch the embedded video about half way down the page.

Bowker Up

2009-07-09T21:55:49Z

The Internets don’t lie. The Giants Web site has John Bowker on the 25–man roster. According to Schulman, Sabean said on the radio that Bowker will start tonight in left field.

And no Panda in the All-Star Game? We’ve been bamboo-zled!

Where Will Bowker Play?

2009-07-09T12:52:00Z

Hank Schulman got a tip last night that John Bowker could be called up today. Ryan Sadowski would head back to Fresno until after the All-Star break because the Giants don't need a fifth starter until July 21.

If it's true, where will Bowker play? Remember, he's naturally an outfielder. His stint at first base in the majors last year was an experiment, and it didn't work so well. But he's played 13 games there this year, so it's possible the Giants could start him over Ishikawa. It's also possible the Giants will want to give Rowand and Winn each a day off in this final four-game series before the break, so Bowker can get starts in the outfield.

Whatever the case, unless there's an injury or trade, Bowker will have seven, maybe eight games to do damage. It's likely more a quick audition for 2010 to see if he's closed up the holes in his swing that major-league pitchers easily exploited last year. Or an audition for the second half, but as currently constituted the roster doesn't have room for him. This call-up also could serve as a showcase for other teams to see if his performance this year at AAA is legitimate.

Play along with the scouts. Here's what to look for: 1) Is he staying back on breaking balls and change-ups? Bowker has a short, compact, powerful swing that lets him get to inside fastballs (unlike Ishikawa), but last year he wasn't able to adjust to the junk. 2) If he's in the outfield, does he take good routes to the ball? Bowker's not the fastest dude, but he'll be able to play a decent OF (most likely left field at Mays Field) if he gets good jumps and reads. 3) Is he overwhelmed against lefties? He only had 35 appearances in the majors last year against lefties, with five singles and one walk. In the minors, when he's hit well overall (this year in Fresno, 2007 in Connecticut), he's also done relatively well against lefties. (Check out all his minor league numbers and splits here.) Seeing how the Giants are in win-now mode, don't expect him to get much parlay-voo with lefties this time up, but it's certainly a question that will linger as the Giants -- or other teams -- evaluate his potential as a major leaguer.

7/8/09: Wuthering Heights

2009-07-08T22:41:11Z

Marlins 7, Giants 0: After beating the 6’8” Sean West and the 6’7” Josh Johnson, the Giants finally caved to Chris Volstad (6’8”) and the Marlins’ relentless tallness. These guys are all young and good, even the 6’2” midget Ricky Nolasco, whom the Giants faced in Florida last month. It’s not hard to imagine this being the dominant rotation in the majors very soon.

As with Roy Oswalt’s gem Sunday against the Giants, sometimes you tip your cap to your opponent and move on. I’m more heartened by this series than the Astros series, to be honest. Zito’s 3–0 win last night, outpitching the superstud Josh Johnson, had me in full post-game rant mode as my man BH and I walked out the center field gate.

If this team wins the wild card, look out, I said. Imagine a three-man rotation of Lincecum, Cain, and either Randy Johnson or Zito, whoever’s healthier and hotter at the moment. And imagine a team that can eke out a run or two or three against even guys like Josh Johnson, whom I figured would carve up the Giants snickety-snack. I guess the Giants were saving the turkey on a platter for today. Hell, if the Giants keep winning the first two games of every series I don’t care if they get no-hit every third time out.

As many have noted recently, the Giants’ offense has improved month over month. It could lapse back into its April doldrums, forcing us all once more to bang our foreheads on our keyboards, but there are enough signs of life that the big bat might not be necessary. What if the acquisition is a minor upgrade on offense and defense? (And doesn’t cost a blue-chip prospect?) I’ll save the stats for another day, but remember that several of the big bats in question would also represent a significant defensive downgrade, so much so that a good bit of the offensive gain would be canceled out. Adam Dunn, for example. Carlos Lee. Jermaine Dye.

But someone like Freddy Sanchez, however, could be a decent improvement on both sides of the ball. Sanchez is just a theoretical — he’s been injured and is also a free agent this winter, two strikes against him. I’m just saying that with the Giants pitching lights-out and the bats nudging away from the bottom of the NL runs-scored column, this year’s trade deadline might call for a more subtle approach.

Jeremy Affeldt vs. Brian Wilson

2009-07-07T21:34:42Z

Last night’s Wilsonpalooza came just hours after I anointed Jeremy Affeldt the Giants’ first-half MVP of the bullpen. Sure enough, Affeldt pitched well and induced yet another double play, while Wilson got all nutty and nearly gave away a three-run lead, thanks in big part to his own monumental bonehead play on a bases-loaded, one-out comebacker that should have ended the game at 5–3.

Bruce Bochy had Sergio Romo warming up quickly behind Wilson, and after the game Boch told the press that the last batter of the game, Bonifacio, was going to be Wilson’s last, no matter what the outcome.

Like I wrote yesterday, a closer’s stumbles are perceived by fans as far more grievous sins than those of a set-up man, often unfairly so. You can just as easily blow a game in the 7^th or 8^th as in the 9^th. Which brings me back to Jeremy Affeldt, whose shiny low ERA and remarkable run of scoreless appearances has everyone, including me, in a tizzy. I chose him as bullpen MVP over Wilson despite some advanced stats that indicate otherwise. Let’s have a look:

Wilson’s frightening work last night brought his FIP closer to Affeldt’s, but he still has the advantage, 2.78 to 3.07. Here’s why: Affeldt is walking nearly a batter per 9 IP more and striking out 1.7 batters per 9 IP less than Wilson. More walks, fewer strikeouts: almost never a good thing.

When batters put the ball in play, they’re hitting .329 against Wilson, only .270 against Affeldt. A pure stathead might argue that Affeldt is riding a massive lucky streak and his ERA should be a point higher or more. With those extra walks, the balls in play are bound to start finding holes instead of infielders who turn them into double plays. His 11 double plays induced leads major league relievers.

But here’s an interesting tidbit: Affeldt makes more batters swing at bad pitches than Wilson. According to Fangraphs, batters swing at 27% of his pitches outside the strike zone, compared to 20% of Wilson’s. But both pitchers have the same overall swing rate — batters swing at about 41%.

Remember, this is relative to Wilson. Other relievers have much higher “O-Swing” rates, as Fangraphs calls it. (Mariano Rivera, 35%, Joe Nathan, 32%.) It’s not an iron-clad indicator of success. Russ Springer of Oakland has the league’s second-highest rate at 38% but gives up a lot of hits and home runs.

One thing’s true, though: Batters aren’t getting Affeldt’s pitches airborne. Of all the bullpen regulars this year, Affeldt leads the team with a whopping 66% groundball rate. In fact, he leads all major-league relievers in GB/FB rate, with nearly 5 grounders to every fly ball.

So you have a guy who strikes out plenty of batters (8.27 per 9 IP), makes batters swing at his pitches, and gets a ton of groundballs. Some of those grounders will inevitably find holes, but batters hit them weakly because they’re not necessarily strikes, Affeldt’s luck might not run out so quickly.

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Kevin Frandsen back up, Randy Johnson to the DL. Heal fast, Big Unit. And let’s hope Frandsen gets a decent chance to show his worth.

Players of The Week (Times Two) and the Half-Year MVPs

2009-07-06T23:25:52Z

I missed the previous week’s Players of the Week selections, so let’s get down to two weeks’ worth with just a bit of further ado: a quote from the Baseball Prospectus resident grumpy old man Joe Sheehan, who concludes his All-Star comments today with this sentence: “Gun at my head, give me Pablo Sandoval, who’s just kind of fun to watch.”

When was the last time a member of the national press called a Giants’ position player “fun to watch”? The Freak and the Panda, winning over the Giant-hating media one scribe at a time.

Week of June 22–28

Nate Schierholtz had a week to remember: 12–for-24 with a double and two homers. But Kung-Fu Panda couldn’t be stopped. His 8–for-22 included three doubles, three homers, and three walks for good measure. Among pitchers, Randy Johnson threw a great game against Oakland, and Ryan Sadowski made a terrific debut with six shutout innings, but Tim Lincecum’s complete-game gem in Oakland wins the day.

Week of June 29–July 5

Hitter of the week is a tough choice. Randy Winn finally heated up with 10 hits, five for extra bases; Sandoval had a triple, a homer, six ribbies and four walks. Both could win this, and Rowand, Ishikawa and Schierholtz had good weeks, too. But I’ll give the nod to Edgar Renteria, who hasn’t gotten many friendly nods this year. He quietly went 9–for-21 with two doubles and six RBI. As for pitchers, it’s Lincecum again, with two scoreless starts. Dig: He allowed 7 baserunners in 16 innings and struck out 17. Next up are the punchless Padres on Friday night.

Half year MVPs

Starting pitcher: Lincecum by a good length over Matt Cain. Cain’s been very good, but Lincecum is starting to look like turn-of-the-millennium Pedro Martinez. Un-freakin’-believable.

Bullpenner: As the closer, Brian Wilson’s foibles will always be magnified, so a particularly bad week for Wilson will leave a long, lingering bad taste disproportionate to his actual performance. But the plain fact is he’s had several bad outings, and Jeremy Affeldt has not. All those ground-ball double plays might make Affeldt a wee bit lucky, and indeed his FIP (fielding-independent performance) is higher than Wilson’s, but my naked eye tells me Affeldt’s been the best in the pen this year.

Hitter: The Panda Man Can.

Fielder: Sandoval gets props for erasing the massive question mark about his glove at 3B going into the season. Ishikawa hasn’t let his first-half struggles with the bat affect his smooth leather work. But I’m going in an unexpected direction: Nate Schierholtz. He’s only played 40 games in right field, 15 fewer than Randy Winn, but by one oft-cited measurement — Fangraphs’ UZR — Schierholtz is already the team’s best outfield glove.

Action-Packed Weekend

2009-07-06T03:59:56Z

The fizz of the back-to-back shutout blowouts Friday and Saturday subsided today when Roy Oswalt handcuffed the Giants, dampening talk of how maybe, just maybe the Giants won't need that extra bat. Perhaps you noticed: The two pitchers the Giants battered and bruised were Freddie Paulino and Russ Ortiz. Oswalt -- the type of guy the Giants will see over and over again in the playoffs, if they are to reach that far this year -- was not quite so generous.

Two injuries this weekend also cast shadows over the proceedings. Saturday, Pablo Sandoval slid awkwardly at home and bruised a knee badly enough to keep him down Sunday. No word yet if it's anything to worry about, but any extended downtime for the Panda, and the house of wild card dreams comes crashing down.

Randy Johnson's shoulder strain -- MRI results to come the next day or two, probably -- is a little more ambiguous. He's generally thrown well, but it was hard to imagine the 45-year-old making every single start this year, anyway, so there are a couple silver linings if he goes on the DL for a couple weeks. First, Jonathan Sanchez if restored to the rotation would have the chance to prove he got his head together during his demotion. You can't say you're not curious. Second, if the Unit's injury isn't serious, he should still get an extended rest before the second half begins while only missing one turn, maybe two, in the rotation.

The emergence of Ryan Sadowski -- 13 scoreless innings to start his big-league career -- helps ease the anxiety, though it's foolish to count on Sadowski to replace The Big Unit's production for more than a few weeks. Or is it? Johnson is at best a seven-inning pitcher, and with his reduced velocity and lack of quality third pitch (his "splitter"? Not so much), what we've seen this year seems about right: good days, bad days, a few outings at either extreme. Having seen Sadowski's stuff -- good movement on the fastball, both sink and cut, an ability to add and subtract a few MPH at will, the occasional nasty slider, and usually around the knees -- 6 IP, 3 ER per outing doesn't seem too much to ask. Average it out, and that's about what Johnson has given the Giants this year.

If Johnson's MRI comes back with more serious juju, things get complicated. Sanchez comes off the trade block, unless the Giants feel warm and fuzzy about Kevin Pucetas, who keeps chugging along in Triple-A. Let's not forget Joe Martinez. He just threw 72 pitches in Fresno tonight. A couple more outings and he might be ready strength-wise for a big-league rotation. Quality-wise? Hard to say.

One sentence on the demotion of Matt Downs to clear room for Rich Aurilia: Any roster that leaves Aurilia as the primary backup at every infield spot better be a temporary one.

Finally, a piece of non-Giant news that must have made the Giants' clubhouse stand up and do a little riverdancing: Scott Hairston has left the division -- the league, in fact, as he was traded from San Diego to Oakland today. If you haven't watched the Giants play the Padres the past couple years, perhaps you don't know that Hairston isn't just a Giant-killer, he is a drooling, moaning devourer of Giant hearts, a filthy nightmare of a beast whose name was spat like a curse from many a good person's lips.

I am not a man prone to hyperbole. Please click here. Then click here. In 2007, Hairston hit 7 home runs in 50 at-bats against S.F. Apparently the Giants wore their mojo bags the right way in 2008, and he was rendered harmless, but he has continued his pillaging ways this year. And lookee here -- the Pads come to town next weekend, but Hairston will be wearing green and gold. Let's all chip in and buy Billy Beane a bottle of superior vintage, shall we?

Finally, congrats to Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain on their All-Star berths. Now do your part for, uh, democracy and vote as often as you can for Pablo Sandoval for the final roster spot.

7/2/09: Zito Betrayed

2009-07-03T03:51:30Z

Cardinals 5, Giants 2: Dammit if Barry Zito didn't deserve better. If Giants' defenders made two extremely makeable plays tonight, he would have given up three runs at most. In the first inning, Fred Lewis lost a ball in the lights, or in the stands, or in the grass, or in his mind, and what should have been one out, man on first, turned into second and third, no outs, and eventually three runs scored without another ball into the outfield. Zito wasn't blameless: he nibbled, he walked Yadier Molina with the bases loaded, he screwed up a play at first base (though it didn't lead to extra runs). He was not overpowering, and thus he couldn't wiggle out of a jam not entirely of his own making.

In the fifth inning, with runners on second and third, no out, Ishikawa fielded a ground ball and had a play at the plate but bobbled it. Instead he got the sure out at first. After an intentional walk for Pujols, Justin Miller came in, hung a slider that Ludwick whacked up the middle, and the Cards had their fifth run, all earnies charged to Zito. His seven Ks tell you he had good stuff tonight, but not good enough to escape from his teammates' sloppy play and, as so often befalls Zito this year, zippo run support.

I gave the team slack last night because Adam Wainwright was doing his nasty thing, but tonight the Cards started Todd Wellemeyer, who has sucked all year. Not against the Giants. Funny how that works.

I'm giving Zito the benefit of the doubt tonight, but since June began he has snuck back more frequently to the Bad Barry Barrio, which raises a caution flag: What if The Big Unit continues his pattern -- seven innings max, more likely 5+ with two or three runs allowed -- and the Zito revival we saw earlier this year completely fades out? Add to that a unsettled fifth slot, and suddenly the Giants' spectacular rotation becomes Lincecum, Cain and pray the Unit's not feeling back pain. I'm not pushing any panic buttons, but it's never too early to have a quiet discussion with slightly sweaty palms. Are you worried? Do the Giants have enough starting pitching depth? Discuss.

7/1/09: A Tolerable Loss

2009-07-02T15:14:28Z

Cardinals 2, Giants 1: On another night, in another month, with a different Giant team, this might have been a 6-0 loss. At risk of making my middle name Pollyanna, I thought this wasn't too bad, as losses go. First, the Giants hit a lot of balls hard. Karmic cyclery, perhaps, for the team's "ground attack" of bloops and bleeders and choppers that have won several games this year. Second, Matt Cain didn't have his best stuff but threw a beautiful game, with Romo and Affeldt to follow. Third, I can't blame Bobby Howry for surrendering the game-winning homer to Rasmus in the 10th. He should have had Rasmus on a strike three, then on a foul pop. On 3-2 he had to come with a fastball with Pujols on deck. Howry did his job; Rasmus just did a better job.

What's more, I'm not too steamed about the missed opportunity in the eighth, when the Giants loaded the bases with no outs (thanks in part to a blown call at first base) and only scored one. The key to the inning was the 3-2 curveball Wainwright threw to the Panda for a swinging strike three. That's balls-out pitching. With Wainwright at the top of his game last night, Molina did a great job getting the sac fly to tie the game. A little more toward the alley and it might have been a three-run double.

Best part about the game, though? Hearing Cardinal fans boo when Albert Pujols was intentionally walked. Oh, I'm sorry, did you just drive 200 miles through endless cornfields and a tornado storm with three screaming kids in your minivan to watch Pujols hit? I feel your pain. Wait, it was here somewhere. I must have misplaced it. I'll go look for your pain; meanwhile, Cardinal fans, go suck 688 eggs.

I'm All Up in Your Grill, Harshing Your Mellow

2009-07-01T19:40:37Z

Once upon a time, a 25–year-old Giants outfielder finally got his chance after he spent what seemed like years punishing triple-A pitching.

He was under the radar for much of the year, with a .570 OPS in limited at-bats, but on a summer road trip that included a swing through the Midwest, our friend made a nice splash. He got hits (12 for 25 in six games), he hit for power, he showed off his strong arm and his wheels. This is it, Giants fans said. This is the turning point.

Anyone care to guess this young fellow’s name? Here’s a hint.

If you said Nate Schierholtz, I don’t blame you. On the current road trip, which includes a swing through the Midwest, Nate had a six-game, 14–for-29 streak. He cooled off last night with an oh-fer but still hit a couple balls hard.

Is Schierholtz experiencing a Lindenesque flash-in-the-pan? I’m not saying that. I’m just sayin’.

Here’s today’s Bucket Of Cold Water on Your Campfire #2, courtesy of BP’s Kevin Goldstein:

One pitcher with numbers that are impossible to argue with is Giants righty Tim Alderson. After leading the California League in ERA during his full-season debut last year, the 20-year-old has a 2.36 ERA in his first nine Eastern League starts for Double-A Connecticut. Scouts still find it difficult to warm up to Alderson, however. "It's not an insult at all, he's a for-sure, big-league starting pitcher for me," said one scout who saw him recently, "but it's strictly back of the rotation for me," he added, while explaining that Alderson's backwards style of pitching is not one that is usually conducive to major league success. "That plus breaking ball is his calling card, and he's a guy with plus-plus control and average command, but he can't pitch off his fringy fastball, and you don't really see many changeups out of him."

Does this mean the Giants should sell high on Alderson immediately and trade him for a big bat? If the above scout’s opinion is already widespread among other teams, they might not be able to trade him so easily — at least not for the bat they want. And what about Schierholtz? Is there anything about his game that makes you think he’s not for real? Discuss.

Back on the Block

2009-06-30T20:19:29Z

I got home late yesterday to find the Giants had just played their best game of the year. It’s only one of 162, but the ten-zip win over St. Louis was a microcosm of all the things we want from the Giants, starting with complete domination from a starting pitcher, one of Tim Lincecum’s best games as a pro, and ending with a post-game radio wrap that featured at least a half-dozen “Big Sadowski” jokes.

Timmah struck out eight, a paltry sum for him, but he knew the Cards were swinging early in the count (a strategy teams are using lately with more frequency but not with more success). So he threw the ball where they could only hit it weakly, except for Albert Pujols, who lined into an out and doubled off the left-field wall. Hence a complete game shutout with fewer than 100 pitches.

The game also featured a key three-run homer from Travis Ishikawa in a spot that screamed for a power hitter to take control of the situation. Mediocre fastball down the middle — Ishikawa planted it in the bleachers. Nate Schierholtz continued to hit the ball hard with two hits and coulda shoulda had at least another. Great pitching, nice defense, and young guys hitting the ball hard. Sounds like a plan.

Sunday, I missed the debut of Ryan Sadowski, who threw so well he’ll get another chance Friday. Good on ya, mate. No one saw his promotion coming. Here is the only mention of him I can find from my archives:

5/29/09: Who will fill the rotation if Sanchez goes away between now and July? Sadowski is in AAA for the first time as a 26–year-old [and] unlikely…

He was so unlikely, I didn’t even bother to relay his minor league record, which goes to show you how baseball moves often fall out of the sky.

Take for example all the trade rumors regarding the Giants’ pursuit of a hitter: for all the talk of Jermaine Dye, Nick Johnson, Matt Holliday, and other usual suspects, there’s one name that came up today that no one had previously floated: Victor Martinez. For those who don’t know him, he splits time for the Indians between first base (36 starts in 2009) and catcher (38 starts), he’s a switch hitter, and except for an injury-plagued 2008 has been good for 20 home runs, a good eye at the plate, and 35–40 doubles a year — about five wins better than replacement. That’s real good. (In Jorge Posada’s peak six-year period with the Yanks, he averaged 5.3 WAR.)

Martinez’s power won’t necessarily be blunted by Mays Field, and he gives the Giants more leeway to trade Bengie Molina or let him walk this winter if they don’t want to rush Buster Posey. In hindsight he’s an obvious target for the Giants. But I don’t think he’s come up once until now.

Who knows whether the Indians would trade such a valuable player who’s under contract through 2010 ($7 M club option next year) for a package of players that doesn’t include one of the Giants’ big four prospects. I’d say it’s unlikely. I think discussions would have to start with Tim Alderson and build from there.

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Sadowski on the roster, Aurilia on bereavement leave, Kelvin Pichardo on the 60–day DL. Interesting decision upcoming when Aurilia returns Friday. Bochy has already said Sadowski gets another start Friday, which means…Richie DFA? Sanchez to the minors?

Three Months, Three Players, Three Questions

2009-06-24T16:24:56Z

I'm headed out of town for a few days for a much-needed escape, so get ready for a major trade. Brian Sabean has a knack of making moves while I'm not looking. Coincidence? You figure it out.

Though we're not quite at the half-way mark (43%, if you must know), I figure it's a good time to take a Rumsfeldian look at this team. There are known knowns, such as Tim Lincecum and Rich Aurilia on either end of the performance spectrum. We don't need to discuss them right now. There are other known knowns on a more cosmic scale, such as the team's woeful offense, prompting Sabean to say this week that he knows what the Giants need (duh), but it might take a while to get it. (So maybe there won't be a big trade while I'm gone.)

The situations I'm most interested in discussing are the uncertain ones. Travis Ishikawa, for example. He's a whiz in the field, which cuts him some slack on offense. And with that slack, his numbers have recently begun to climb toward respectability. A couple hot weeks, and he could be solidly respectable. Dig this: Say he goes on a 20 for 50 tear, not bloody likely, but hey, let's amuse ourselves. Let's throw in 4 HRs, 4 2Bs, and 5 walks. He'd come out the other end with this line:

.300 / .358 / .494

The .850-ish OPS would put him spitting distance behind Nick Johnson, Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman.

At his current level (.739 OPS), he's in James Loney and Casey Kotchman territory. Even with recent improvement, I can't get too excited. His four home runs this year have come off the following pitchers and pitches (according to MLB Gameday).

Buddy Carlyle - 82 MPH changeup
Matt Palmer - 87 MPH fastball
Darren O'Day - 85 MPH fastball
Trevor Cahill - 89 MPH fastball

What seems like a nice power burst is Ishikawa hitting low-velocity pitches in location mistakes. He's not turning on 90+ MPH fastballs. This could be significant or not, but he still needs to prove to the league he can hit a good fastball. At least he's hitting crappy pitches over the fence now and then, where respectable first basemen should be hitting them.

Another question the first three months has brought up: Andres Torres, keeper? Who knew this guy could do so many things well: Steal a bag. Run like hell, as he showed last night going first-to-home on Panda's double. Hit the ball hard. Bunt. Take a walk. Chase down tough fly balls. I likes! Is good! Where does he fit into the Giants' plans beyond this year? Is he a fourth outfielder, at best, or could he make someone like Fred Lewis expendable? Gripe about Sabes & Co. all you want, but their scrap-heap work this winter was superb. Torres, Brandon Medders, Justin Miller, and Juan Uribe have all been valuable contributors.

In three months, Jonathan Sanchez has backslid from breakout-year candidate to thanks-but-no-thanks. The question whether to let him make his next scheduled start looms large, but the bigger question is whether the Giants should even bother trying to trade him. It would be a ridiculously low sell. Is it better at this point to wait for him to regain confidence and trade value? Part of that equation is whether Sanchez is ultimately better suited for the bullpen. Tempermentally, I think not. The thought of him coming in late with the game close and runners on base....yeesh. But if he never masters the changeup, he's just a two-pitch pitcher, and very few of those become successful starters without at least one of their pitches named "Mr. Snappy."

Next...oh, wait. You want an answer to the Sanchez problem? What do you think this is, Premium Insider Malo? Alright, this time you don't have to pay. The first thing to do is dial back the hand-waving. No more ominous quotes in the press from Darth Sabes or Stern Uncle Boch. Give the kid a short breather, a few extra days between starts, which the upcoming schedule affords. Put him back on the mound, give long man Justin Miller an extra cup of coffee in the third inning, and take it from there. The bullpen is solid enough and rested enough, thanks to Cain, Lincecum and Zito going deep consistently, to absorb a few more early exits from Sanchez. If a nice trade offer comes over the wire, take it seriously.

The June Rotation

2009-06-23T18:49:22Z

My starting five have been rock-solid of late, a great mix of grizzled veterans, quiet performers, and young up-and-comers. Rain delays, short rest, long road trips -- nothing fazes them.

M. Ward, Hold Time: M. (for Matt) Ward has been around a decade as an indy folk-rock mainstay -- some would say godhead -- which doesn't quite make him an up-and-comer. But he's just now getting national spotlight, often for being an old-fashioned guy. And his new album shows it: "Never Had Nobody Like You" is built on a softened but reverential version of Gary Glitter's glam-rock stomp. "To Save Me" has the percussive piano and castanet roll of The Ronettes' "Be My Baby" plus some very ELO-ish swirls. And the title track feels filtered through the gauze of John Lennon's "#9 Dream." Not to mention that he covers Buddy Holly's "Rave On." I've gone through it top to bottom a few times, and nothing so far has the impact of his classic "Chinese Translation," but seeing how many decades run through the album, I'm willing to give it plenty of time.

Fanfarlo, Reservoir: If they're good enough for Sigur Ros, they're good enough for me, especially when they offer their first full-length album for a $1 download (limited time offer, must act now!). If you're completely confused, Sigur Ros is a very eccentric, very talented group from Iceland, and I'm on their mailing list. They gave Fanfarlo a shout-out, and for good reason: They play a warm, communal, propulsive rock with lots of fun instruments -- think Arcade Fire without the grating manic edge.

Sonic Youth, Washing Machine: Eagerly awaiting SY's latest, "The Eternal," and the bits I've heard so far are promising. There's not much middle ground with the band, which tends to provoke cultish loyalty or a lot of wincing, but if you've never heard them, Washing Machine (1995) is a good place to start. It's got the lean, muscular cool-thing sound they do so well, as well as the noise-feedback freakouts, but there's a dreamy element to it, too, with two meandering songs. The title track also has one of my favorite Youth moments, Kim Gordon's shaggy-dog tale of a dream in which a woman appears in the sky, throws her a quarter, and says, "Honey, here's a quarter. Go put it in a washing machine." It's the downtown version of Flava Flav's classic admonition, "Wash yo' butt!"

Spoon, "My Little Japanese Cigarette Case": Other art forms have their masterful minimalist moments. Rock and roll does, too, and one of my favorites is this song, which has four lines that repeat and repeat, with various layers of percussion, background vocals, and riffs (is that a harpsichord solo?) added and subtracted without ever losing the song's chugging momentum.

The Staple Singers, Best of The Staple Singers: There's something a little stiff about the studio work of world's warmest, fuzziest gospel-singing family. Perhaps "square" is more like it. They often served as a counterweight to droogy freak shows of the late sixties (on a bill with Love and Rahsaan Roland Kirk -- dig!), and their best-of collection is relentlessly uplifting. I can only take so much of it. Catch old recordings of them live for maximum effect. They provide perhaps the highlight of The Last Waltz with a cover of the Band's "The Weight," filmed separately from the concert itself. Live or not, I can listen a million times to their 1972 #1 hit "I'll Take You There," car ad be damned. (Yes, it was made into an ad. Please don't go looking for it unless you want images of mid-size American crap permanently associated with the song.)

Afternoon Video Fun

2009-06-22T23:10:50Z

Pshaw. Do it in a game and I’ll be impressed.