A Quick Summary
Just yesterday I read an article on the Huffington Post called Why the Dow is hitting 10,000 and it really gave me a great summary of the current market conditions. With personal spending way down, the government seems to be making up the difference (and more) with cash-for-clunkers, bank bailouts, mortgage bailouts and a cool trillion on “stimulus spending.” The only problem is that the money just doesn’t seem to be trickling down to the public.

The only problem is that the article seems to be a little short on the so what? factor. What happens when the government can’t spend any more but the people haven’t paid off all of their debts and continue to save? All of a sudden all these gains may seem like another painful memory.

This site says that we are actually in a period of much larger deflation (according to the CPI) than reported and that the current unemployment rate is actually at about 20% (not the 9% reported in the media.)

Their explanation for this is in the “discouraged workers” who are those people who have simply given up looking for work within the last 30 days. Isn’t that a little scary? That means that 1 in 5 people (both looking and not looking for work) do not have jobs.

Reading these types of things gets me very nervous about the recent rally in the stock market. I’m still following some of the advice that Dent shared about an upcoming depression.

This video is an update to the forecasts in the book and it’s also a great information piece for people who haven’t (or won’t) read the book.

Personally, I’m a little bit on the fence. On one side, I figure that the economy must turn around at some point but this recent rally has gone up so quickly that I see a lot of down side. We still have job losses each month in both Canada and the United States. GM is on the verge of bankruptcy, Chrysler is already there and regardless of the actual declaration, there are going to be thousands of fewer dealerships across North America.

What does that mean?

Think about each town that is made up of about 1000 people, a corner/video store, a grocery store, pet store, clothing shop and a GM auto dealership. I would bet that the dealership makes up a large portion of the corporate tax base for the town. How many jobs are lost? How much income is moved to larger centres followed by residents and their famillies? Can rural North America handle the loss of these businesses?

I’m not sure we’re out of the woods yet on this one. Call me naive but don’t economies and markets recove when people actually have money to invest and spend?

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Elliot Wave Theory

In this example, the first 5 waves take stocks in a bullish direction; however, this pattern also works in a bear market just in reverse. The first Wave (#1) is then followed by a pullback (#2). The next (and longest stage) is a sustained rally up (#3). The correction comes as markets pull back (#4), finally followed by another big rally (#5).

Elliot Wave Theory Bull Market trend

Following wave 5 comes a series of bear market moves. The “5-3 wave pattern” now beings parts A, B and C which indicates a correction in price due to the run up of the market during the previous cycle.


The A, B, C above demonstrates the last 3 waves of the Elliot Wave Theory (again this will be positive in a bear market).

Elliot Wave Theory ABC Correction

Grand supercycle: multi-century
Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40-70 years)
Cycle: one year to several years or even several decades
Primary: a few months to a couple of years
Intermediate: weeks to months
Minor: weeks
Minute: days
Minuette: hours
Subminuette: minutes

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A seminar I attended

Earlier today I was at a seminar where the speaker presented a number of methods for using the web for business. As the ‘expert’ he had some very generic information about blogging, twitter, podcasts etc. One of the people in the audience asked a question about his own industry:

I am in the heavy machinery industry and all of our products and designs are custom and proprietary so I can’t post details on the web. What should I do?

The speaker stopped for a second then said,

Well first you’ll need to figure out what you can do.

Reply:

That’s why I’m asking you

As I sat there in a very uncomfortable silence across the room, the speaker quickly came up with some ways to secure your blog so only customers can find the information - completely counter to the rest of the presentation!

Here is my advice:

Blogging for business is not simply a sales tool where you try to blast your products in every post. What he should have told the guy was that they should take a hard look at their best clients, the issues that they face and blog about that. Keep adding content with a focus on the industry that you supply - issues, success stories, events etc.

Imagine being in a large organization and you’re comparing two different suppliers. You run a quick Google search on each.
Company #1 (Your competitor): has their website brochure telling you how great they are.
Company #2 (You): has over 200 articles about your industry, issues and solutions. They have a brochure site that has hundreds of links throughout back to specific articles. They have people commenting, reading and using their information.

Who do you think that they would choose? If we’re trying to get past price in each industry, this is the way to do it.

That’s what he should have said but didn’t…

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Thanks for continuing to visit everyone.

Off the top, I took a great waterfront holiday with my family. We were on the beach, out in the boat and simply enjoying the great family time and playing a little Wii in the evenings. We did a very short yet amazingly fun hike which has yet to impress a colleague of mine who completed the Inca Trail during the same period. The weather was great and the only thing wrong with the trip was that it was too short.

How does this relate to my title?

It doesn’t but this is a blog and people like to know that there is a human writing on the other end of these things… Here’s how it relates:

On August 8th, a main competitor of my company did the best thing that a competitor can do - they went bankrupt and canceled each and every contract they had with their customers (over 20,000 of them). I and my company were very happy to jump into the fray and add our services to their now non-existent supplier. I am very happy with the results and I was able to maintain my honest approach to the market and not take advantage of my new clients.

Backing up a month to July, I spent a great deal of time going through all my old files, desk paper and other items. It took a lot of time but I was able to get organized and was ready to start the fall strong. Little did I know that I would be up to my eyeballs in work starting August 8th and wouldn’t quit until mid-September. If I hadn’t been caught up, I would have been sleeping there every night.

Where I learned not to procrastinate

I once listened to an audio book by Raymond Aaron. In it, he tells a story about being asked to author the Canadian version of Chicken Soup for the Soul. In the book, he states that a person who authors one of the Chicken Soup books will earn on a minimum $1.0 million dollars. The owners (Mark Victor Hansen and Jack Canfield) said that he could start at any time that he was ready. Raymond Aaron kindly told them that he could start tomorrow. Their reply was that it was a huge project and that he should take time to get his things in order. Aaron’s response was,

I don’t leave things out of order because I want to be able to take advantage of an opportunity without worrying about things I haven’t done.

(this is a quote as far as I can remember it.)

After I listened to this, I knew that I wanted to change. Yes, even I was like most people out there who put off the big or uncomfortable things to take care of all the little easy stuff. Although I’m still not there, it’s a goal of mine to get things done so great opportunities will never need to wait.

Just think back to all the days that you’ve stayed late or have been up late working because “something came up unexpectedly” and your had to catch up. I hate that feeling…

Have a great night!

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Upon first opening the book, I saw underlines, scribbles and other “highlights” that looked something like this:

I started to get a little worried. Although someone had taken the time to point out the important sections of the book - a executive summary of sorts - I still like to read it myself. Just when all seemed lost, I reached page 21.

It all stopped.

No more scribbles. No more writing. No more Very Imp. on the side.

Of course, being an optimist I want to believe that after the first 20 pages, the previous owner of this book was so enthralled by the material that he read straight through the night. No pen or highlighter. Just the reader and T. Harv Eker.

What really happened

Mr. Motivation attended a seminar and bought this book (I think this because it is signed by the author.) He got home and told his wife and friends how excited he was about making a million dollars by the end of the month. After a short bought of laughter, he grudgingly went to the “home office” (most likely a basement desk and computer) to read his book.

After teaching everyone a lesson about how committed he was he reached page 19. This is the portion of the book that starts to talk about “Verbal Programming.” Wait! This isn’t telling me the step-by-step method to becoming rich! He reads one more page and goes to bed.

Blown out of proportion

Of course, as usual I’m taking this to the extreme. I could be way off and the guy was actually a real live millionaire who was keeping up with the competition. That being said, doesn’t this show you why only 1% of the population reach the status of super wealthy and something like 90% end up retired broke?

Just imagine what could have been learned on page 22.

Please note: I have been to see T. Harv Eker and he is a very good motivational speaker. I also picked up his Business Mastery courses (another great garage sale find!) and they are excellent.

** As of this moment, I have still not fully read this book - currently on page 1.

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1. Celebrate
When I’ve hit this traditionally “rich” milestone there’s only one thing to do…get out there and celebrate! I think it would involve a great dinner of Lobster and/or other assorted seafood, partnered with a perfectly complimented wine and desert. I’m thinking that this meal would work best in Hawaii or some other island in the Pacific. Of course, the family will be there (if they want to buy their own tickets) but the meal is on me.

2. Upgrade the Garage
I think I’ve written about this before but I’m really not a “car guy.” I don’t feel the need to impress with my things - especially my vehicle (aka: depreciating asset.) I’m pretty sure that I would be looking for something in the Hybrid, Motorcycle, Boat category. I’m not picky so I’d probably get one of each.

3. Home Improvement
I’ve checked the by-laws in my local area. Unfortunately, my current property does not allow for a 3 car garage. Rather than keep the bike and boat out in the snow, I’d probably need to upgrade the entire property. If I’m going to change from a simple mild-mannered blogger into a local celebrity - and all the high society parties that come with it - I’m going to need a better “entertaining” house. It still needs to be child friendly but you can pay people to do that, right?

4. Wardrobe
Here is something that is really lacking right now. Most of my clothing has a nice layer of play dough or moon sand so it’s time to upgrade. I’d love to be able to dress nicer and, since the Beckhams will be arriving shortly, I’ll need a little more Metroesque threads in the wardrobe. Hopefully Georgio can help me out in a pinch.

5. Accessories
I was in a little jewelry store a few months ago and I found the watch that I wanted. It was truly the watch I had been looking for. I asked the clerk how much it cost. He said,

Sixteen

Not bad I thought.

Sixteen hundred?

Frown…

Sixteen thousand

He didn’t even ask if I wanted to try it on!
I’d go back, ask to try on the watch. Ask for the price and then tell him:

I’m looking for something in the thirty-thousand range. Thanks anyways…

Reality Check
I think that after all that, I’d be back trying to add another zero to that Million. Luckily I would have a ton of free time on my hands after being fired from work for running through the office screaming, “I’m Free! I’m Free!”

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