Monday, February 6^th, 2012

Bangkok

Opinion/Analysis

by Burin Kantabutra

I applaud Thammasat University Rector Somkid Lertpaithoon’s decision to allow academic oriented events focusing on Lese Majeste laws on TU’s campus, in order to preserve the academic freedom which TU was originally set up to protect.

If we hold with Thomas Jefferson that, “We are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead, nor to tolerate any error so long as reason is left free to combat it”, then let the Nitirat and Siam Prachapiwat groups also step back and agree to an academic debate with two caveats. The first is that both sides would first seek to agree on what His Majesty the King’s wishes on our Lese Majeste laws are, why he strongly criticized them and the extent to which His Majesty’s wishes should be followed in this matter.

The second would be that both sides agree to apply an important principle of Stephen Covey’s, “7 Habits of Highly Effective People”, which says, “Seek to understand (the other side) before seeking to be understood”.

The rationale for the first twist is that HM probably has a deeper knowledge of the monarchy than anybody outside of the monarchy, and will be directly affected by our collective decisions. The reason for the second twist is that often, one side to an argument doesn’t concentrate on understanding what the other side’s saying before responding – how often, for example have you likely told your partner or spouse, “You don’t listen to what I’m saying before you scold me!”

Hopefully, Lese Majeste Can Be Debated Without Acrimonious and Outrageous Accusation

So, I suggest a series of debates, broadcast live, between Nitirat and Siam Prachapiwat. We’d start with HM’s wishes on our lese-majeste law and its application.

After Nitirat presented its argument, Siam Prachapiwat would summarize Nitirat’s points until Nitirat agreed that Siam Prachapiwat had understood Nitirat’s stand correctly. Then, and only then, would Siam Prachapiwat be allowed to present its side (the same rules would apply, of course, prior to when Siam Prachapiwat made its points). If Nitirat used 40% of its time summarizing the other side’s points, it would have only 60% of its time left to make its own points (and vice versa) – this will really focus each side on understanding the other’s points.

After both sides understood HM’s wishes, we would go to the Nitirat proposals, comparing them one by one against HM’s wishes, and thus educate viewers.

A knowledgeable, forceful person acceptable to both sides would moderate – our equivalent of, say, Walter Lippmann, to keep the debate on-topic and within the allocated time.

The media, MPs, senators, Cabinet members, and TU students/faculty would be given priority seating – but the moderator will eject anybody disturbing the proceedings.

Let us freely and calmly hear both sides, for “A popular government without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy; or, perhaps, both…A people who mean to be their own governors must arm themselves with the power which knowledge gives” (James Madison).

Fact Finding and Thorough Comprehension of All Relevant Facts is Imperative Before Engaging in Honest Debate

Burin Kantabutra

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

Bangkok/Pattani

Opinion/Analysis by Burin Kantabutra

It’s good that PM Yingluck has been quick to adopt the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s recommendation that victims of political violence must be financially compensated for their losses, as in the case of the four presumed innocent people killed by paramilitary rangers in Pattani’s Nong Chik district a few days ago.

But, reconciliation depends on quickly finding the truth and seeing justice done, with monetary compensation playing a necessary but distinctly secondary role.

Thailand's Southern Violence, Like Conflicts in Other Places, Could be an Endless Futile Efort

Why? Because real justice just can’t be for sale. The 4^th Army Region also cannot be counted upon to be either neutral or competent in investigating their ranger colleagues. No, it should be a specialized unit, e.g., the Department of Special Investigation, aided by Khunying Pornthip  Rojanasunand, Director, Central Institute of Forensic Science, Ministry of Justice.

For example, the rangers claim that they were fired upon first by those in the pickup. The weapons found in the vehicle would support this allegation, but could have been planted by the police or military officers after the fact. Forensic tests by Khunying Pornthip would credibly show if the pickup’s passengers had fired any weapons recently, and the lab results must be made public quickly.

Even if those in the truck did, in fact fire first, then how could the rangers kill four people whom they now accept were not insurgents? Were the rangers’ rules of engagement/training faulty? How competent were their commanding officers, especially the senior-most officer at the scene?

(The shooting occurred after military rangers from the 4302 base were chasing suspected militants who threw an M79 grenade at their unit, the Ingkhayutthaboriharn military camp of the 43rd Ranger Division in Pattani’s Nong Chik district.)

Find out the truth behind this tragedy, regardless of where the truth may lead, and give swift and fair court martials to the accused.

As John Jay noted, “Justice is indiscriminately due to all, without regard to numbers, wealth, or rank.”

Smiles Can Quickly Turn to Tears on Battlefields

We must not let uniforms absolve the guilty of blame – as at Krue Se or Tak Bai, where nobody has been held accountable, despite being found guilty by the government’s own investigation. When truth and justice have been seen to be done, then, and only then, can we begin the long road to reconciliation. You can’t buy justice.

Editors Note: The army rangers in pursuit of the suspected militants came across a pick-up truck carrying 9 Muslim men on Highway 418 near Moo 1 of Ban Kayi, tambon Pulo Puyo and tried to stop it. The rangers claimed someone in the vehicle shot at them so they returned fire, killing four people. They also claimed they found 2 firearms, an AK-47 and an 11mm pistol in the vehicle.

At first, the military claimed the men were militants but later, relatives of the victims insisted they weren’t, but just innocent civilians.The military later conceded there was a possibility the men were civilians…

So, what really happened to whom, …and why?

See Related Link: http://www.bangkokpost.com/opinion/opinion/277893/quick-response-cools-tensions

Wednesday, February 1^st, 2011

Bangkok

Opinion/Analysis by

Burin Kantabutra

Galileo was sentenced by the Roman Inquisition for advocating that the Copernican theory that the Earth moved around the sun – not vice- versa, as was the then- prevailing doctrine of the Catholic Church.

Cardinal Bellarmine, the Church’s chief theologian wrote that “to affirm that the Sun is at the center of the universe,…is a very dangerous attitude and one calculated not only to arouse all scholastic philosophers and theologians but also to injure our faith by contradicting the Scriptures.”

Galileo asked in a letter that his idea not be condemned “without understanding it, without hearing it, without even having seen it.”  Galileo’s eloquent letter was forwarded to Rome where, in the words of one historian, “it sank out of sight as softly as a penny in a snowbank.” (source: http://law2.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/ftrials/galileo/galileoaccount.html).

I am not saying that Nitirat is anywhere near Galileo.

Royalists and Law Alumni of TU Should Allow Open Debate

But I am saying that their ideas, like Galileo’s in his day, must not be condemned without understanding them, without hearing them – and that is what Thammasat University has done.

To say that giving an idea a voice could lead the public to mistakenly believe that Thammasat organizes or agrees with the movement holds no water if the event is a debate, which by definition must have two opposing sides. To say that the debate could trigger violent confrontation is not a reason, either – for the mission of a university is to seek the truth, if need be with authorities present to maintain law and order and ensure freedom of speech.

Thus, Thammasat should arrange public debates between the Nitirat group and a representative of its opponents, starting with the meaning of H. M. the King’s birthday speech directly and strongly criticizing our lese-majeste laws.

Then, the debaters could analyze the group’s proposals in light of HM’s opinion.

I stand with John Stuart Mill: “If all mankind minus one were of one opinion, mankind would be no more justified in silencing that one person than he, if he had the power, would be justified in silencing mankind.”  As one of our foremost law schools, what has Thammasat learned from Galileo’s trial?

In discussing whether or not the Nitirat group should be allowed to speak on Thammasat University’s campus about our laws on lese-majeste, it might be a very useful start to know how His Majesty The King feels about these laws. King Bhumibol Adulyadej: A Life’s Work (Grossman and Faulder, 2012, page 313), notes: “Thailand’s law of lèse-majesté has one very prominent critic: King Bhumibol.… In 2005, after an increase in politically inspired lèse-majesté complaints, King Bhumibol used his annual televised birthday address to convey three concerns: (1) “The king… is a human being and as such should be subject to criticism.(2) Charges against those accused of lèse-majesté should be dropped, and those held in jail for lèse-majesté should be released. (3) The use of the lèse-majesté law ultimately damages the monarchy.”

Hypothetically, if HM the King sought to speak at Thammasat to read the relevant sections of  his 2005 speech again, would TU deny His Majesty…? Or that perhaps by so doing it could lead the public to mistakenly believe that TU organizes or agrees with him, or that his reading could trigger violent confrontations on the premises? If TU would permit the King to do so, (and it’s overwhelmingly likely it would) then by extension, if the Nittirat group wished to read  HM’s speech out loud, and proceed to engage in learned, scholarly debate on the extent to which their proposals met H.M.’s wishes, should they be denied that right?

Democracy Rests on Open and Free Debate

What kind of society are we coming to, where one of our most respected universities bans us from seeking to publicly and calmly discuss what our beloved monarch wishes us to do?

Monday, January 30th, 2012

Bangkok

Opinion/Analysis by Burin Kantabutra

I agree with Democrat party advisor Chuan Leekpai that the Niittirat group of professors seeking to amend our Lese Majeste laws has every right to be heard, and also decry the 1958 Law Alumni Club of Thammasat seeking to deny them that right, e.g. by urging Thammasat University “…to end their duty as professors immediately to prevent them having a bad influence on the students.”  Thammasat’s law alumni, of all people, should know that the core mission of an institution of higher learning is to question, to challenge (and therefore stimulate intellectually honest debate).

If what the Nittirat propose is not suitable for Thailand, then show us, through open debate – not trying to silence the proponents unheard.

Nitirat Group Seeking Speech Freedoms of Debate on Lese Majeste Laws

The 1958 Law Alumni Club sounds like those who wanted to kick out then-Thammasat Rector Dr. Puey Ungpakorn years ago, claiming that he was a Communist, “to prevent him from having a bad influence on the students.”

If Thammasat law students don’t know how to think, how to separate the wheat from the chaff, then its faculty has failed abjectly in its main duty.

Club President Suthep Nirundorn, will you be willing to debate Niitrat’s representative, broadcast live, on whether His Majesty the King’s opinion about our Lese Majese laws should be applied to the Nittirat proposals?

The debate would be excellent material for further discussion in classrooms and the media, and thus we the Thai people can find out for ourselves what to do with our laws.

Come and help shed more light, not just heat, on how to protect our highest institution…

Related Link: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politics/277389/nitirat-defends-royal-stance

In saying that “(Thammasat University ) Class 01 law graduates deem it inappropriate to use the university’s premises to stage offensive activities against the monarchy”, these alumni misunderstand what a university should aspire to.

I hold that “The goal of education is the advancement of knowledge and the dissemination of truth” (John F. Kennedy) and that “If the object (of education) were to make pupils think, rather than to make them accept certain conclusions, education would be conducted quite differently”; and ”…There would be less…instruction and more discussion” (Bertrand Russell).

For example, Harvard’s motto is simply “Veritas” (Truth), and a core value of the University of California, Berkely ( U.C. Berkley) is to “….Question the status quo”. (Both are renowned for top U.S. law schools)

Rigorous, dynamic, learned pursuit of the truth, wherever it may lead, is essential to make pupils think.

Thammasat, as one of our great institutions of higher learning, should be where no topic is off-limits for rigorous intellectual discussion, save that which is clearly illegal (e.g., such as malicious defamation, slander or libel) – especially when the one most affected by the laws in question has noted: “The king is a human being and as such should be subject to criticism. Charges against those accused of lese-majeste should be dropped, and those held in jail for lèse-majesté should be released. The use of the lèse-majesté law ultimately damages the monarchy.”

His Majesty seems to be clearly desiring that the laws be changed.

If Class 01 disagrees, it should show in open debate why such changes would be against the national interest —  rather than seek to shut the Nitirat group up by pre-judging its activities as being offensive against the monarchy or by denying the group’s ideas the freedom to be heard in a forum just so dedicated to freedom of speech.

Class 01, as highly educated alumni, please show us that you understand your university’s role in the pursuit of truth, His Majesty’s wishes on lese-majeste, and that you agree with Voltaire when he said, “I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.”

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

Bangkok

Opinion/Analysis by Burin Kantabutra

New Industry Minister M.R. Pongvas Svasti wants to restore investor confidence by speeding up dyke construction and establishing a 50 billion baht anti-flood insurance plan before this years’ rains begin to arrive in May.

The minister’s vision should extend beyond his nose, and he should not try to fool us.

The Elephant is in the Living Room...Flooding is Too!

If all that was needed to restore investor confidence was four short months’ worth of work, the Japanese-drafted nationwide water management plan of over a decade ago would have been long ago implemented in full.

Also, having your taxes and mine pay for flood insurance is just an admission that the risk management professionals at the insurance firms don’t believe that the government’s measures will be effective – that’s why their premiums have shot up 600%!

Investors aren’t buying the government’s standard line, either – Industry Ministry Deputy Permanent Secretary Nattapon Nattasomboon reports that 14 of 43 factories in the flood-hit Saha Rattana Nakorn industrial estate have declared that they’ll relocate. (Sanyo decided to leave Thailand entirely)

Minister Pongvas must perform before the banned politicians resume open political activities in May.

One of his key performance indicators (KPI) should be the extent to which insurance premiums return to pre-flood levels, as that is a credible, transparent and measurable standard free from political interference:  insurers will literally be putting their money where their mouths are.

Editor’s Note: As a blatant example of the lack of proper drainage in some areas, yesterday I navigated half meter high floods on the 2 km. long access road from RCA to Khlong Tan that runs parallel to the Airport Rail Link. Yes, there was very heavy rain for an hour or so yesterday… So? The road has literally no effective drainage. Then, flooding is guaranteed and without drainage work, will repeat itself again…

Boating Around Town May Become More the Norm Than the Exception

Do the necessary infrastructure work or see the past repeat itself. All residents and Thai citizens pay at least VAT on nearly every purchase they make. Most salaried Thais pay some tax. All business are supposed to…. Infrastructure for road transportation is sorely lacking when we look around greater Bangkok at thousands of older, cracked and crumbling roads that often present more of a patchwork of asphalt band-aids than actual roads. Cambodia roads, as we call them in colloquial terms, will have to be renamed Thailand roads, as Phnom Penh’s could scarcely be this bad…

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

Long Live His Majesty The King

Bangkok

Opinion/Analysis by Burin Kantabutra

An unusually high proportion of those in favor of or against reforming our lèse-majesté laws are academics, e.g., those in the Nitirat or Sayam Prachapiwat groups.

That’s truly excellent because they are used to using relentless questioning in search of the truth, using discussion to generate light and not heat. They, above all others, should subscribe to Thomas Jefferson: “We are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead, nor to tolerate any error so long as reason is left free to combat it.”

Thus, I suggest that these academics hold a series of public debates to educate us on our lèse-majesté laws.

First, we should discuss what our king meant when Nicholas Grossman and Dominic Faulder wrote in the latest authorized biography on His Majesty, the now well known book, ‘King Adulyadej Bhumibol: A Life’s Work’, (2012) that, “Thailand’s law of lèse-majesté has one very prominent critic, King Bhumibol himself: In 2005, after an increase in politically inspired lèse-majesté complaints, His Majesty King Bhumibol used his annual televised birthday address to convey three concerns: First, “The king is a human being and as such should be subject to criticism. (2) Charges against those accused of lèse-majesté should be dropped, and those held in jail for lèse-majesté should be released. Third, the use of the lèse-majesté law ultimately damages the monarchy.”

Then, since His Majesty has graciously admitted that he can be wrong, we should discuss the extent to which we agree with His Majesty’s opinions on our current laws. For example, on the third point above, has the “Uncle SMS” case damaged or strengthened our highest institution?

As I believe and agree that His Majesty’s opinions make eminent sense, I would expect this stage of the debate series to be very short. However, this debate is essential nevertheless, since our next step would be to measure our laws, and their implementation, against a standard which we all accept – which hopefully, will be in line with His Majesty’s opinions as expressed prior.

Having done all of the above, the way that we should take on reform should be clear for, “Such is the irresistible nature of truth that all it asks, and all it wants, is the liberty of appearing” (Thomas Paine).

Prime Minister Yingluck and right hand man Chalerm Yubamrung seek to protect the monarchy by preserving our lèse-majesté laws as they are today. But they confuse the goal (protect our highest institution) with the means of reaching that goal (preserve our law unchanged). There are many monarchies in the world, i.e., the UK, Japan, or Bhutan. It is ridiculous to say that all monarchies must have our laws in order to be protected.

PM Yingluck says not reforming our lèse-majesté laws is the best way to protect the monarchy and Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm says, “Some people express their wishes to amend Section 112. What right do they have to change it? What power? They can only talk. I will oppose anyone who proposes that it be changed.”

Well, in response, I present you with one who said,  “The king is a human being and as such should be subject to criticism. Charges against those accused of lèse-majesté should be dropped, and those held in jail for lèse-majesté should be released. The use of the lèse-majesté law ultimately damages the monarchy.”

You are right, Mr. Deputy PM Chalerm, that person has no power, and can only talk– as he reigns but does not rule. Is that why you and your boss oppose him so vehemently, just like the Democrats before you? Why don’t you obey His Majesty when to me, he makes such exquisite sense?

Seriously however, laws- like the societies that they are inseparable from, are living institutions, and must adapt with the times.

As Earl Warren, prominent former U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice said, “It is the spirit and not the form of the law that keeps justice alive.”

Preserving the spirit of and protecting our highest and beloved institution might, or might not – mean amending our laws, and that is a legitimate topic for free, open and learned discussion – not for seeking to shut people up.

Editor’s Note: The debate becomes all the more rich when one considers the sources of government attempts to control, guide and/or distort the issue. Chalerm Yubamrung? Thaksin’s Pheua Thai-led chief political proxy? Is this really happening? Since when did one of the country’s most notoriously failed fathers ‘earn’ this platform to speak for the collective consciousness of Thai people? Got credibility..? It’s vainly powerful, overly threatening, less then clean, more than likely corrupt power bosses (yes, within the top echelons of the police force, no less) that are symptomatic of what’s wrong with many Thai officials far more than what’s right. Find an integrous, honest and clean leader who has no axe to grind, no distorted justice, tainted past and serves as nobody’s fugitive, elite puppet to help engineer such a delicate, far reaching and potentially dangerous policy and public debate. Oh, that’s right…Pheua Thai doesn’t have any…

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Bangkok

Opinion/ Analysis by Burin Kantabutra

Thaksin Shinawatra stressed to Khun Jatuporn Promphan (the Thai Election Commission ruled to disqualify Jatuporn on grounds that he had questionable party membership when he registered his candidacy to contest the July 3 general election) that a Cabinet appointee must be first and foremost, a person with a clean image.

Jatuporn is Awaiting a Thai Electoral Commission Decision on His Eligibility

That observation must also apply to Khun Nalinee Taveesin. Earlier on Sunday, the Democrats called for the government to reconsider the appointment of Ms. Nalinee as Prime Minister’s Office Minister, as party spokesman Chavanond Intarakomalyasut said her appointment while on a U.S. Treasury Dept. blacklist was inappropriate and would potentially scare off investors.

Like Khun Jatuporn, she should wait out this Cabinet round. She stands accused by the US Treasury of “secretly supporting the kleptocratic practices of one of Africa’s most corrupt regimes” by, as the Treasury alleges, facilitating financial, real estate, and gems-related transactions on behalf of Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s wife Grace (like Thaksin’s ex-wife Pojamarn na Pomberja, who is and was highly regarded as Thaksin’s proxy in many financial dealings, for whether married or divorced, their fortunes and future interests are inextricably linked).

Khun Nalinee protests that relations with the Mugabes are strictly social – yet that’s highly questionable, given Thaksin’s mining businesses in Africa and Democrat spokesman Chiavanon’s report that Nalinee has expertise in mining and gems and close connections with African leaders.

Taveesin was added to the list of Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) by the US Treasury Department

Bill Clinton’s relations with White House intern Monica Lewinsky were ‘strictly social’, (although they shouldn’t have been) yet strongly interfered with his ability to govern as public attention was riveted to the scandal.

For the same reason (though to a lesser degree) Prime Minister Yingluck hardly needs a person branded as “one of the Mugabes’  cronies” representing our nation on the international stage.

To clear her name, Khun Nalinee should sue the US Government for slander for making false charges – but she hasn’t, although she’s had years to do so. Until she wins that case, she should stay in the shadows, for like Caesar’s wife, a Cabinet minister must be above suspicion.

Editor’s Note: Nalinee claiming to be only socially connected with Grace Mugabe is clearly laughable… as this is more about a ‘business relationship’ between likewise corrupt minded and greedy, aggressive regimes. Uber-wealthy Thais of her well-connected status would rarely (if ever) socialize with disreputable African despots or their immediate relatives for purely social reasons…

It’s just not the way that most upper- crust Thai society functions.

Saturday,  January 21st, 2011

Bangkok

Opinion/Analysis by Burin Kantabutra

I agree with new Defense Minister ACM Sukumpol that “politicians lay down policies, but if the policy makers have no power, those policies are meaningless.”

As Mike Mullen, then Chairman, US Joint Chief of Staff, noted:

“Part of the deal we made when we joined up (for military service) was to willingly subordinate our individual interests to the greater good of protecting national interests…

The military as an institution must remain a neutral instrument of the state, no matter which party holds sway.”

Being apolitical is a key part of being professional.

Yet, all too often our military drags the uniform it wears through the gutter by being non-professional in many ways, e.g., by being above the law, joining in high treason by staging coups d’etats, stealing from the public coffers, or promoting brother officers for factors that were not related to job performance. Can any show us which, if any, of our generals earned his rank on the basis of transparent, measurable job-related performance indicators?

On top of that, the generals responsible for the outrages of Krue Se and Tak Bai have been clearly identified, yet no general has the guts to demand court martials for them, even though, “There are… few things more damaging to our democracy than a military officer who doesn’t have the moral courage to stand up for what’s right or the moral fiber to step aside when circumstances dictate,” Mike Mullen has also stated.

ACM Sukumpol, ensure that under your watch, the military is truly above politics, rather than work to change it from pro-Democrat to be pro-Pheua Thai.

Thai Military Rank is Often Based as Much on Connections as Actual Abilities

And, equally importantly ensure that it becomes fully professional in the other ways mentioned. Be the role model that your exalted office demands you be:  have the moral courage to stand up for what’s right, and court martial the generals of Tak Bai and Krue Se — which will not only extend rule of law to cover your brother officers, but will greatly aid reconciliation.

Finally, probe corruption in the military, e.g., starting with the Army’s B350 mln. lofty dirigible/ airship or the  GT200 bomb detector, which at B1 mln. apiece, is much less effective than tossing a coin.

Thai Army 'Needs' an Airship for Surveillance.. Why does No One Else Seem to..?

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Bangkok

What Really Happened in the Case of the Hezbollah/Terrorist Cache of Explosives?

(….. Besides a clumsily jumbled and disjointed flow of reliable news & information?)…

What Really Happened Was Nearly and Possibly the Makings of Thailand’s Worst Nightmare,…. & Amid Its Own Porous Security Blanket Being Openly Exposed

(Coincidentally, today is Thai Royal Armed Forces Day… So, thank a Royal Thai armed forces service member if you’re feeling grateful for the dedication these men and women who serve their nation selflessly show, often at their own risk. Many give their lives for the sake of their nation and commitment to their fellow citizens. They are far and away the most hard working, lowest paid and selfless of most Thai government emergency service personnel pound for pound, on call literally 24/7.)

Their “Worst Nightmare” is… Coming True?

… Facts:

#1 …. Mr. Atris, a Lebanese man carrying a Swedish passport, was arrested at Suvarnabhumi Airport on Thursday.

#2 ..… Police believed he had links to the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. Lebanese suspect Atris Hussein likely had many accomplices, including some Thais, reported Deputy National Police Commissioner General Pansiri Prapawa.

#3 …. Three Arabs had been seen going in and out of the shop house. They were last seen 6 months ago, but are believed to have already left Thailand.

Thai Police/Security Taking Few Chances From Here On...

#4 ….  Only ammonia nitrate is a controlled substance and its unauthorized possession constitutes a violation of Thai law. The over 4 tons of urea fertilizer isn’t illegal to purchase, store or ship. It just indicates you are either a farmer, doing excavating or mining, or just like to make huge bombs. Recommended they should enforce a maximum amount of urea that can be bought, stored and/or shipped legally by unregistered companies.

#5 …. Based on intelligence reports from the U.S. and Israel, which found that 6 months ago another group of 3 Lebanese men had also arrived in the Mahachai area (which is consistent with #3).

Probable: Police believed they may also be linked to Hezbollah, although there was no confirmation if they were still in the country, Police Lieut. General Winai said.

To understand the confusion that erupts when there is a major development in such a sensitive issue for Thailand, it helps to look at the broader picture in a global perspective. How does Thailand fit?

It essentially must try to ’straddle the fence’, taking what it needs in return for giving what it can, while painting a nationalistic picture of strong self-determination of leadership in the Thai way- fiercely independent and non-reliant on any outside ‘master’, free from foreign influence, dating back to the era of European colonization.

Yet the truth is often quite another thing, and what is often fairly accepted but hidden is a great amount of international cooperation, which nearly all sides recognize is in everyone’s best interests.

Comparing/Contrasting Different Regions, Policies and Political & Economic Interests,…

Vs. the U.S. & Global ‘War on Terror’ and Some Background on Global Anti-Terrorism Efforts, Or …  What’s Really Going On?

There are some who think that Asian & European intelligence agencies and governments aren’t involved in spending huge sums (relative to their GDPs) of time, energy and resources on intercepting, preventing and tracking terrorism, but this simply belies the more subtle and less ‘Front Line/ War on Terror’ approach used by these states, as they often have larger proportional Muslim immigrant populations, more porous inter-border transit, lax controls and are answerable for smaller regions of territory with more condensed, easily monitored population centers, as opposed to a vast enterprise of multi-national corporations characterized by America, Inc.

Its huge international diaspora in the post-war era spread prolifically throughout most parts of the world, while also the diverse, multitudinous array of U.S. gov’t, military and NGO organizations, affiliated schools, infrastructure and personnel are visible in most foreign countries with which the U.S. has diplomatic relations with.

Some former European colonials have a similar paradigm on smaller scales, but with fewer overall entities of vital interest, and comprises primarily just the U.K. and France. Their militaries are by no means as vast or as spread out as the U.S. military is for example, with numerous international commitments, bases and personnel spanning the globe. Nor are their commercial interests quite as obvious targets as say, prolific multinational corporations like big U.S. banks, airlines, technology giants, McDonald’s, Starbucks and huge American oil companies.

Thailand’s Own Iraq-Af-Pak Problem ….

To date over the last 7 years, Thailand has spent about $5-6 Billion, or about 170 billion baht on its failed effort to secure and stabilize the southern-most 3 provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani (and to some degree parts of Songkhla province). Thailand is approximately 5 to 6% Muslim, so it can be considered that it has a general population of approximately 4 million Muslims, with around 70% of those residing in areas further south of Bangkok, and whose largest urban areas of Songkhla/Hatyai are generally considered safe and have experienced relatively few problems.

As detailed in Human Rights Watch’s 2007 report, “No One Is Safe”, insurgent groups have used violence to try to drive ethnic Thai Buddhist populations out of the predominantly Malay areas, while keeping Thai ethnic Malay Muslims under control and continually discrediting Thai authorities.

According to police statistics, civilians make up more than 90% of the 4,700-plus deaths since 2004. That figure continues to rise daily, nearly unabated. Teachers, security forces, police, local leaders, monks, businesses, banks,’ rubber plantation workers- virtually all not aligned with ‘the struggle’ are targeted, with beheadings and slashed throats not uncommon.

Several insurgent groups like the Patani Freedom Fighters (Pejuang Kemerdekaan Patani) and separatist insurgents in the loose network of National Revolution Front-Coordinate (BRN-Coordinate) have suffered setbacks from security sweeps but still maintain a presence in hundreds of ethnic Malay Muslim villages in southern Thailand.

As the groups continue to cite abuses and heavy handed tactics, including torture and unjustifiable force by government forces in order to justify their attacks, some insurgent cells have merged with underground cartels involved in drug trafficking, arms smuggling, and human trafficking across the Thai-Malaysian border, adding to the thriving criminality in the southern border provinces. These also have been at the root cause of a portion of the attacks as the groups seek to muscle out and get revenge on security forces for maintaining a network of heightened security checkpoints and border area clampdowns.

See Related Link: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/NA19Ae02.html

In the global context of terrorism, most countries have far fewer ports, airports, travel volumes, and GDP/commerce factors and military interests to consider in their fights against terrorists than America. They also tend to focus largely on their own populations and assets, not having spread as wide a global strategic network around the world. Germany is a great example. No foreign bases, few if any foreign troops based outside the country, etc., (which is well within their capability) but instead, it hosts huge U.S. military bases, armies of U.S. service personnel, and participates more with NATO & U.N peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts.

The UK, Spain, Holland, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Eastern European members and several smaller Scandinavian countries are on the front lines in the ‘war on terrorism’ like it or not, although most surely by choice. Israel is the poster child of all in terms of being on alert and high security, literally 24/7. Many moderate Arab states are also deeply involved in global terrorism security and military cooperation with the United States, although there are few public statements to wit, and their participation and sense of self-preservation in doing so is understandably serious.

The argument often referred to that the American government is famously known for ‘going over the top’ holds true, yet there have been no more 9/11’s (only smaller lone gunman or small cell subplots, such as in Ft. Hood, TX), no ghastly chemical, biological or radiological attacks due in large part to just exactly this yes, extremely costly obsession with preventing them.

Why? Simply, because the US will only get a few chances to let serious attacks slip through before all credibility and confidence in its ability to wage counter terror operations is lost. Cleaning up and rebuilding from post 9/11’s is a tremendous waste of resources too… The victims are widely international in our globalized world as well. Thus it must be a global effort. As usual the U.S. is seen at the forefront and although it may be ‘overboard’, it’s better 100% safe than sorry. Close doesn’t count….

They can be right a million times but wrong only a few. Thailand simply has the benefit (and joint responsibility) of being part of the global anti- terror network through its many western security and military relationships. Thai governments are smart to be willing to reciprocate in kind, benefiting from the symbiosis, contributing to intelligence, peacekeeping and humanitarian efforts and in the broader range of regional security, even as a well recognized U.S. Southeast Asian military ally. So be it. If they chose not to be, it would be at their own security expense. They currently don’t have that kind of luxury.

Differences in style and philosophy are rife….

What is not in contrast is the substance. Thailand stands to only benefit from integrated security partnerships that provide timely and sensitive intelligence regarding the movements and activities of terrorists in the region. Would you rather it not? There’s not much option realistically. The 4 tons of fertilizer and bomb making chemicals could’ve been exploded in anywhere in Bangkok or around Thailand- at resort areas, a busy transit area, a popular event aimed at murdering and maiming foreign nationals, targeting Christians or Jews, innocent women and children, random tourists/travelers and people just like me and you. They should have no right to choose that, yet the secrecy, brutality and anonymity they covet allows them that ability, at the expense of the greater good.

That is the core of the argument against allowing terrorists the freedom they seek to deny others. Given that the bomb plot had been considered ’successful’- if say, to cause ‘only’ 10 to 100 or so casualties,… If ‘only’ aimed at foreigners….

Leads to the ‘Why’…

Economic and Political Stability/Security Challenges

The Possibility that Bangkok Could be Attacked at the Hands of Terrorists Should be Considered

Imagine the blow to investor confidence and tourism then? Incalculable for Thailand, literally. The last thing Thailand needs, especially in light of the last 4-5 years of tourism disruptions.

Essentially Thailand’s tourism golden goose has been interrupted at various intervals every year or more frequently due to some catastrophic or politically driven events,dating back to the 2004 Dec. 26^th tsunami.

The following years were rife with political protests and instability, disease outbreaks (SARS, H1N1, Swine Flu), global economic shocks or severe weather calamities.

There are now many who realize the Thai tourism notion of a ‘Tropical Holiday of Bliss’ is waning as it is, due to commercialism, over-exploitation, lack of environmental concern and unethical business practices. Thai tourist trails are both glitzy and exotic, yet many are fading with mismanaged and underhanded exploitation. The recent floods only served to exacerbate the many problems due to neglect and a lack of shifting of priorities to ensuring a positive, clean and user friendly experience. Traffic congestion in Bangkok alone can turn people off to the long wait times it takes to merely get in, out of and around the capital.

The “Land of Smiles’ is long gone, (trust us) and if one wants to find a more Asian utopian version, it scarcely breathes any life or doesn’t exist, while Burma, the Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos are rapidly becoming more popular than Thailand, which is seen by many as going more the way of Singapore or Malaysia, which for most travellers gives a more highly developed tourism hub, though with less mystique and sense of unique adventurous allure, less popularity, already familiar branded sights and stricter laws on vices. Party-going foreign tourists are generally considered an endangered species there, while Thailand’s tourist areas and massive Bangkok and Pattaya nightlife is well known as Sin City. Have money? Let’s party!

Price is also a major factor, and prices here are much higher than just a few years ago. Food alone has increased at least 35% on average in less than 3 years. So has entertainment. Concerts, movies and snacks in theaters cost about the same as in the U.S. now. Tourist areas have prices that are usually double or triple the norm, and 2 -tier pricing for non-Thais is also widely practiced, much to the chagrin of visiting and longer stay tourists, expats and non-residents: whether you work locally and are taxed in Thailand, or not. Anytime you buy almost anything you’re taxed by VAT (7%) in legitimate retail stores anyway. Add on $++ for extra taxes, service charges, tips, parking and/or transportation, and an average night out for 2 in Bangkok or Phuket can easily cost as much as in most major international cities. Less developed tourism locations take time to build tourist volumes, and thus keep prices lower.

And this doesn’t even account for the continuous violent separatist war in southern Thailand that has continued nearly unabated for the last 7 to 8 years. It’s this factor that really has the Thai government worried- that their own Muslim anti-separatist battle (which they have clearly drawn a stalemate in, nor can win) will connect deeper and with sinister global tentacles that may morph into the greater global war on terror.

This would force dramatic foreign policy changes, push the security apparatus on their back feet and neccessitate more unpopular investment, support for and involvement with the more openly determined front- line terrorist fighting nations, similar to that of Singapore.

Yet Singapore, with its strict government controls, colonial past, wealth, efficient public and private sectors and extremely limited size and population can control its own outcomes with draconian determination, unfettered by political opposition. Thailand would have many problems within its own sharply divided and volatile political drama amid a heavily nationalistic, patriotically zealous and proud cultural identity to stay its own course.

Their Worst Nightmare…. The Southern Muslim Separatist Insurgency

Fortunately, major population centers and the golden egg-laying western tourist areas a little farther north, especially Bangkok, have been immune to the battle… That will largely determine whether it stays a confined and contained armed struggle or not. Global terrorists linking together with their own indigenous insurgency scares the pants off Thai officials…

Honestly, Bangkok is literally indefensible. The saving grace is the likelihood that the Muslim separatists in the south correctly judge that nearly the entire force of roughly 95% of the Thai nation would come down to bear one way or another on most if not all Muslims if this tactic was employed. Thais are highly unified in crises and a common enemy would only strengthen their collective national resolve, no matter the cost.

Strict emergency decrees are already long in force in the southern regions affected by the violence, which offers security forces a wide range of discretion and military powers at their disposal. Thus, the indigenous Muslim mindset is one of continued oppression and subjugation. In fact, their ideal of an independent, autonomous state free from Bangkok’s central government interference and domination is little different than that of the Palestinians.

Frequent exchanges between Muslims, Islamic universities and some extremists in other nations, like Pakistan, Indonesia, and especially in hard line neighbor Malaysia, is where the Thai resistance fighters get their indoctrination, training blueprints, backbone and support.

Occasionally a few Indonesians or others may come to the region and get involved, but the reality is that the deep- southern Thais are more closely aligned with Muslim Malays than upper- southern and central Thais. Malaysians and southern Thais are linguistically, religiously, historically and ethnically linked, can easily pass through borders both ways on a daily or weekly basis and borders stay open nearly around the clock in a similar way that the Mexican border and the many Hispanic Americans share their daily routines and roots much more in tune with fellow Mexicans and other Latinos than with the average American ‘gringo’, unless they work or attend school in an ethnically balanced non- Hispanic majority environment.

The cross border phenomenon of workers, families and friends living and working on both sides of the border then becomes a social standard and the normal context of their daily lives.

There as here, a porous, lengthy and unenforceable border is riddled with crime, violence, and smuggling. The major difference is a lack of a violent, armed struggle based on ideological and religious passions fueled by major human rights abuses, while the U.S. federal and state agencies can be nearly as effective in clamping down as they decide to be within their own combined context of legal, political and budgetary constraints. That the U.S. considers the Mexican border areas a huge security risk is highly evident.

It is highly significant that the current situation was spawned under Thaksin Shinawatra’s appointed military and police leaders enforcing dictatorial and abusive ‘kill or be killed’ operations. This is his continuing legacy of state violence,…No subsequent government since (and there have been many) has done much to bring about a substantive solution to the crisis. In essence, it’s the equivalent of a nuclear meltdown.

Prior to events in 2003-4, there were very few problems there. That the southern Muslims no longer trust most Thai governments’ leadership to ensure fair treatment is highly understandable. So, they simply developed a revenge- at- all- costs, ‘do or die’ strategy that leads to the current focus.

Back in Bangkok,….

Hussein had revealed in jail that bomb-making materials were being kept in a commercial townhouse in Samut Sakhon and that he used to drive around the capital taking photos of key sites.

Yet, when the charge was filed against him officially, he denied any wrongdoing.

Efforts to Contain or Solve the Southern Insurgency Have Been Frutiless

“We will question more witnesses and gather more evidence before deciding whether to file terrorism charges,” Deputy National Police Commissioner General Pansiri Prapawat disclosed.

Foreign Ministry Permanent Secretary Sihasak Phuangketkaew yesterday invited Judith Cefkin, Deputy Chief of Mission at the US embassy, to discuss the US warning about possible terror attacks. Clearly the Thai side is upset at being pre-empted by a prescient U.S. Embassy terror threat warning to its citizens here.

Will you rather take the priority of your safety here via a ‘Top Secret America’ styled terrorist/intelligence network taking the most proactive approach? I think most would agree any day….

Being the victim of terrorism isn’t exactly your idea of a blissful, relaxing holiday and would really destroy the entire ‘Thailand Miracle/ Amazing Thailand’ promulgated tourist facade of idyllic, vacation paradise splendor, wouldn’t it? It would render most of their entire tourism related marketing efforts into a sham and turn their tourism industry on end.

If the vast majority of visitors here would rather not see Thai authorities work in tandem with global intelligence agencies, feel free to enjoy the incredible sights in Pakistan, Afghanistan, African conflict zones, Mindanao or even the formerly peaceful, deep south of Thailand. We’ll see you, … if you return, …maybe not.

Bangkok’s Jewish/Israeli Connections & Hot Spots…

In the Hezbollah foiled attempt, a sketch released of a second man who appeared to be in his 30’s or 40’s described as a terrorist suspect who was traveling with Atris “bears great resemblance to Hezbollah operative Naim Haris”, Ynet, an online news website of Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth daily newspaper reported

“The latter’s photo was published last year by the Shin Bet [Israel's internal security agency], which at the time identified him as an operative in charge of recruiting Hezbollah agents worldwide,” Ynet reported on Sunday.  “Iran and Hezbollah may have now chosen Thailand as the target for a terror attack against Israelis, perhaps to avenge the recent espionage killings and blasts in Iran, or to take revenge for the assassination of Hezbollah’s military chief Imad Mugniyah some four years ago,” Ynet reported.

Lebanese media reports quoting Hezbollah members contested that argument, however.

Thai officials warned possible bomb targets included Bangkok’s popular Khao San Road, where inexpensive entertainment venues are popular late into the night and also is home to Bangkok’s Jewish Chabad House, permanently guarded by Israeli and Thai security.

Upstairs is a Jewish designated floor with a small orthodox synagogue that is segregated according to gender and free phone lines from Bangkok to Israel, Internet terminals and other travelers’ amenities and facilities.

It is also visited by hundreds of mostly Israeli travelers every Saturday evening for religious services and free dinner. Directly across from Chabad House is the multi-story Viengtai Hotel frequented by Israeli tourists who want to be close to Chabad House and dine at its downstairs public kosher restaurant.

A second possible target is perhaps Bangkok’s Sukhumvit Soi 22 as it is crowded with tourist venues and the Beth Elisheva Synagogue, Thailand’s main center for Jewish services. One street over, on Sukhumvit Soi 20 is a Hebrew school.

Finally more from Human Rights Watch:

On Sept. 16, 2011 bombings in Narathiwat’s Sungai Kolok district, utilized methods typically employed by ethnic Malay Muslim insurgent groups in southern Thailand who seek a separate Muslim state, Human Rights Watch said. 3 bombs exploded at 15 to 30 minute intervals, while police defused a fourth. The later bombs may have been planted and timed to target security and medical personnel rushing to the scene of the first attack, Human Rights Watch said.

“Insurgents who bomb nightspots know they will kill and maim numerous civilians,” said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch. “This is not an armed struggle but a sickening crime.”

See the Link to Related Stories:

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Suspect-had-many-accomplices-police-30173963.html

What Scares Thai Authorities Most is the Insurgency Morphing Into a Global Terror Battle

http://www.hrw.org/news/2011/09/20/thailand-southern-insurgents-bomb-nightspots

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/national/Hezbollah-calls-off-attacks-30173763.html

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/politics/Govt-needs-to-learn-from-this-terrorism-case-30173946.html

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/security/275749/us-wants-to-question-suspect

Monday, January 16th, 2012

Bangkok

Come and Enjoy the Annual International Fun Fair Organized by the American School of Bangkok.

Fun for all the family!…..Admission is Free!

The Sukhumvit Fair, being held this coming Saturday, Jan. 21^st features exquisite international cuisine, spectacular stage performances by students, teachers and famousThai celebrities, fun children’s games and prizes, an exclusive shopping arena, a fabulous raffle draw, cartoon mascots, a Kiddies’ land and play zone; and live music and bands… !

Partial proceeds generated from the Sukhumvit Fair event will be forwarded to local slum assistance and other charities in Bangkok.

The Sukhumvit Fair will take place from 15:00 to 22:00 at the American School of Bangkok (Sukhumvit Soi 49/3) on the 21st January and admission is free.

Come One, Come All, Young or Old... For a Great Time of Fun

The American School of Bangkok (ASB) organizes the ‘Sukhumvit Fair’ each year in  order to celebrate cultural diversity, promote international cohesiveness within our community, and allow the school to reach out to the greater community with genuine humanitarian spirits for “those who are in need” by providing a fund raising venue for Thai or international charitable programs.

*Location is between Samitivej Hospital Sukhumvit 49 and Villa Market

For More Info Contact:

02-620-8600 ext. 125 or e-mail at buranit.maranphal@asb.ac.th

See Link from 2011’s Fair:

Sukhumvit Fair 2011 by ASB