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The report concluded that five states—California, Arizona, Florida, Michigan and Rhode Island—have been “suffering the most” from the national economic slump. Similar fiscal problems will spread to New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, the report said.

This may aid the tax mavens in California to carve out non-residential real estate from our Proposition 13. This action would act to further devalue commercial properties, due to the increased expense.

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According to Priscella Moranga, Deputy Board Clerk, this fee holiday will be limited to the first 30 applications, and no more than two applications from any applicant will qualify for the fee reduction.

The intended purpose of the Board’s action appears to be to encourage and facilitate residential growth in this county of approximately 50,000. Applications for commercial projects will only receive a deferral for the Facilities fees; there are no Parks and Rec fees levied on commercial properties. Normally paid upon application for a building permit, they will be deferred until building completion and occupancy.

County officials said that while several other California counties had instituted fee deferral programs, Amador County is the first county in the state to eliminate fees for a specified time period.

This writer hopes that other California jurisdictions recognize the wisdom of the County of Amador’s Board of Supervisors. The fee reductions are temporary, they are limited in number and scope, and address an economy that may be in recovery. Financing both residential and commercial project should be easier with a reduced burden, and the decision may spark builders to supply needed product that could not otherwise pencil or be financed.

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Anyone who was around a few years ago knows how an unstable electricity supply can shake things up for industry and investor confidence and especially in the bond market.  So when you read between the lines on this news release they are saying that they aren’t making any promises, but that they are pretty confident we won’t run into that kind of buzzsaw again.

You might see this in the news Monday after the conference call and photo opportunity are staged, but the release went out a little earlier today.

2008-04-22:  On occasion we see press releases from companies that address projects they are working on with in-house talent and money. These press releases get sent far and wide and occasionally reproduced by media sites that think their readers will care. At the ends of these releases the companies tend to place boilerplate paragraphs describing their company and their ticker symbol if they have one. One such project that recently gave a demonstration is Boeing’s fuel cell powered airplane. You can see an article on it at Green Car Congress.

From an investment perspective these releases are news events that can influence the price of stocks and bonds. When you read them, you have to decide what the influence will be and whether or not you will act. What you look for depends a lot on your particular investment style. If you gamble on momentum you will think about what other investors will think when they read it. If you prefer the value game you will think about what the news means for long term earnings and costs. Growth players look for how the company might improve their share of their market or enter a new one.

It’s usually safe to bet the company released the information hoping it will make them look good, but they can’t come right out and predict what it will do to their earnings or any other number that will influence stock and bond prices. If you don’t know why that is look up what happens to corporate officers who permit that practice. Shareholder lawsuits, big fines, and jail time are strong possibilities. Yet they still release these stories and we still look at how our investment positions might be altered, so we learn to read between the lines. If you are good at it you can probably work as an analyst. If not, it’s best to not act on the news or pay for the analysis.

In Boeing’s case, they are on record saying they don’t expect fuel cells to appear in a major way in commercial passenger jets, so that would seem to preclude entrance into new markets for fuel cells, right? Growth investors with Boeing positions might move on to the next press release when they see this tidbit. However, consider this from the perspective of companies producing fuel cells. Boeing has just proven that something involving their products can be done. They haven’t shown it can be done economically, but they have proven that some of the potential technical hurdles can be jumped by actually building and flying the test airplane. Does that make for a growth potential for the fuel cell vendor? Maybe. More research might be worth the effort or purchase cost.

Note that Boeing made this demonstration with a two seat general aviation airplane. They also took off from the ground with a combination of battery power and fuel cell power. They didn’t restrict the power supply to fuel cells until they where at cruising altitude and flying level. They also mentioned that this approach could be used for small manned and unmanned aircraft. At the end they mention that this is an industry/university effort. What does all this mean if we try to read between the lines? Fuel cells provide power to propulsion via electricity, so such an aircraft would cruise on an electric motor. That would lead to less noise and might matter to folks who want to be more stealthy as they watch you with unmanned cameras. Would that be valuable in the defense and security markets? Probably… if it can be done economically. Another thing to realize is that industry/university projects keep students in the innovation cycle and that makes for the cheapest research a company can buy. It’s also good politically and it looks and smells like money brought in to a district. You can bank on that when it comes to dealing with legislators, governors, and other political figures. If you are a value investor that would be worth noting as it demonstrates a good political strategy by the company. Never forget that voters can change the market rules and undermine a long term position for a value investor.

So what should you do with a press release like this? The default answer should be ‘nothing’. If you do day trading, you know you need to see the release before most others do if you are going to benefit from an emotional response by the market. If you don’t get that kind of information, it is more likely that someone else will be profiting off your response than the other way around. If you work the longer cycles you need to read between the lines and respond before others do. If you wait too long, again, you will be the one coming in too late after everyone else has already adjusted the prices to the news. Remember that ‘nothing’ is most often the best response.

However, if you can see something you think others will not see, you might want to act. If you do that a lot on a variety of subjects and market niches, you need to see a shrink regarding your delusions. The best analysts tend to focus on few areas in order to make their advice worth buying. If you aren’t doing the same, you shouldn’t be buying your own advice, right? If you are in your area of expertise or have purchased the research details from someone who is, however, you are probably good to go take an educated risk.

So… what did I do with this news? Nothing but a bit of reading and filing away of the information.

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Prior to the earnings report the stock sold for 12.5x earnings. Within the IBD group the multiples ranged from around there to 27, but CPX was the only one in the top 5 so far that reported lower year over year earnings. The new price target established by Raymond James  is around 35 and that would be a multiple of almost 15, or a broad market multiple.

Because this is a cyclical stock and I did not see anything in the conference call that we’d call compelling forward guidance, I’m going to take a more conservative outlook and give it a multiple of 13. That would price the stock at just over $31, or 12% above the old high. If CPX takes out the old high at close today that’s a good sign it could get there, but the intraday chart show a lot of selling around that old high which we call overhead, people that want to get out even or with a slight profit from a buy months ago. The volume is still strong so we will see. I have my stop (automatic sale) set at the exact buy point so my only loss would be the $20 commissions. If the stock exceeds the old high by 5% or breaks through 29, I will look at selling for a nice profit of about 8.3% unless the trading volume remains over 125% of the normal on an upward trend; then I will hold until around 31 at which point I think CPX will be fully valued, or to whenever the volume dries up, whichever first occurs.

Thursday, April 24: Took some Complete Production Services (CPX) @ $26.78 on strong momentum and after a very positive quarterly report and forward look from management. CPX is in the oil services group in IBD, ranked #17 and advancing. Oil is off today, and with positive momentum from CPX I am betting that it will break through the previous 52 week high of $27.75 and further extend. As this is a cyclical, not a long term investment, this is strictly a trade deal to capture some quick gains. If it fails I will not hold below 5% of my purchase price and take the loss. CPX has many characteristics of a winner; fairly low P/E, earnings growth higher than sales growth, and it’s not widely owned yet by the funds but under acquisition. The negatives are that it does have some debt and the oil sectors have been in momentum play for an extended period of time.

Monday, April 21: Bank of America (BAC) reported today and missed estimates, but kept their dividend which is now 6.8%. I added another quarter position to my existing quarter position at 8% less than I paid the first time. I am looking to complete my Bank of America position over the next few weeks at prices no greater than my first buy. Why buy Wachovia which has probably less upside and a smaller dividend when you can buy the king on sale?

Friday April 18: The Google earnings took a lot of short sellers by surprise and the stock is up almost 19% over yesterday as the shorts must buy the stock to cover their losses. A few others reported good earnings and as such the market was up 180 before the open. This is a good sign, but I believe more of a function of covering bad bets so it’s a good day to sell some dogs and not a good day for buyers. I may boot XHB if given the chance.

The Google options which I considered yesterday but didn’t buy at $18.40 are selling as I write for $43.50. An investment (OK dice roll) of $1,840 would have yielded an overnight profit of $2,510, or a 136% profit. Don’t let anyone tell you that options cannot be profitable, but it is gambling.

You have to love the analysts. They hated Google at $450 but love it here at $535. Of course the buy ratings have been issued by all the major brokers at nearly $100 over where it’s been for weeks. Their target is $600. When Google was selling for 20x earnings that was too much for the experts to recommend, but now 30x earnings is a good deal?

This is why we have to do our homework. We need to study these companies in depth rather than wait until the juice has been squeezed out by the mutual fund companies at which point the BUY ratings are published. Google is probably high here, but it won’t drop much below $480 with the new earnings reports. If I didn’t have it much lower, I’d be a buyer at anything below $500 which is about 25x forward earnings; a multiple this stock easily deserves.

Thursday April 17: It’s notable that earnings disappointments (Merrill) don’t seem to shake up the market as we’d expect. That might indicate that much negative sentiment is priced in to the stocks which can be a sign of bumping along a bottom.

Google will report in less than 2 hours. The sentiment is that they’ll miss estimates again, and Google has not provided any guidance recently. I am sorely tempted to buy some out of the money calls against this sentiment but I don’t like the pricing and that’s outright gambling. In a couple of hours we’ll know if buying January calls for 600 at $18.40 would have been a good idea or not. I’m not willing to gamble the minimum investment today of $1,840 so it’s all talk.

NOV and HELE are working well with respectable single digit paper gains for each. Still a loser on the Homebuilders (XHB), Wachovia (WB) and Bank of America (BAC).

1:23 PM ARRGGHH!!!! Total earning blowout!! DANG, shoulda coulda

Monday, April 14: Well, I got everything right about Wachovia Bank (WB) except starting a 1/4 position at 11% above where the stock is trading now. They cut the dividend by 44%, missed earning by what might be a record (-$.14 versus estimates of +$.40 a share), issued a boatload of common stock at $24 a share, and gave a fairly negative forward look due to non-performing loans. I don’t think the stock is buyable until a solid base is formed, and I’d look for that to be in the $22-$23 range but we won’t know for a few weeks.

Bank of America (BAC) dropped 2.6% in apparent sector sympathy, and I don’t think AC is buyable yet either. I’m down 11% on that name as well.

I started a 1/4 position in Helen of Troy (HELE), a health and beauty products name most people don’t know but their brands you do. Among the brands are OXO, Dr. Scholls, Revlon, Vidal Sassoon, Brut, and Health-O-Meter.

I’ve traded HELE profitably for 10 years, and have never lost. They are extremely well managed, always seek productivity increases and cost reductions, and have great brands. The stock is down to about $16 from about $28 in mid 2007, and is now trading at 8.8 times 2009 earnings estimates with a PEG < 1. Management has expressed concern about some equipment names but continues to do well in staple cosmetics. The brands reflect consumer spending patterns, and I have no doubt that this fine company will recover within one year. I am projecting the price to be above $20 by this time next year, and feel strongly that anytime the price dips below $16 it’s a buy.

Consequently, I am buying a 1/4 position at $15.98 for my personal portfolio and making my first EGO Investment Club paper buy at the same price. I do not want any long term growth stock to exceed 5% of my $100,000 EGO portfolio, so I am buying a 1/3 position of HELE, a total of 100 shares, for $1,598 plus $20 in trading costs for both the buy and sell.

Thursday, April 10: The unemployment numbers came in lower than expected, discount retailers got upgraded, but spending is still down. The market moved up but the names moving make no sense to me. They’re selling basic materials and buying Phillip Morris domestic and selling Phillip Morris overseas and buying internationals and selling BAC and buying WB. I think the Peter Principle needs to kick in today for me, no trades ’cause I can’t see any direction!

Wednesday April 9: Yuk. Sideways action with a negative spin makes for a confusing and difficult trading environment. Both stocks I sold yesterday are up, but they could be down in an hour. Or not! I am liking cash now as I can’t read the market, but did initiatate a 1/3rd position in National Oilwell Varco (NOV). NOV is an oil infrastructure play, and the industry group on IBD is finally moving up but not toppy yet. NOV has been my best gain ever, close to a 1000% return over 4 years. I sold it earlier in the year and am buying it back at a slightly lower price. Varco is a bit maker for the oil drillers, and is one of the best managed industrial companies in that complex. I expect a double over time as the rig business expands.

Tuesday, April 8: Yesterday I was out of town, but expected to come back to some nice up volume in WB and BAC after the WaMu money injection news. Didn’t happen. While the oils and steels continue to add pricing, two of my related stocks, RJI (Jim Rogers Commodity Fund) and CHK (Chesapeake Energy) aren’t following that trend. Both buys were made too late in the cycle, and both bounce between a slight gain and a slight loss. The chart shows both well above the 50 day moving average which is fine if there’s lots of strong buying volume, but there is not. I was trying to decide whether to hold or fold, but then Warren Buffett tapped me on the shoulder and reminded me of the two cardinal rules in stock trading. #1 don’t lose money, and #2, see #1. I sold both with small gains, about 4.2% after trading costs, thinking I can buy them back lower later.

Commodities and cyclicals are not growth stocks. The only way to make any money here is good market timing and if your timing is off, you lose. I have one larger commodity fund from PIMCO I’ve held for about 5 years that’s in great shape and I’ll keep that and RJA (Jim Rogers Ag Commodities Index) for a hedge. My already reduced commodity exposure has now been cut by another third, all profitable trades. So far, every sale I’ve made since January has been right. The stocks are all lower now and I’m watching National Oilwell (NOV) for a good re-entry point.

Friday, April 4: 3 more hours until close, and with a disappointing jobs report the market is up! We can make a number of inferences, but the consensus seems to be that investors may have largely discounted the event of recession into the market.

Two of the three buys I made this week were probably wrong. While XHB (Homebuilders Index) is working, both WB (Wachovia Bank) and BAC (Bank of America) got some stiff downgrades today from JPMorgan, a name that matters. WB’s 2008 earnings call dropped to $3.12 from $4.30, a 27% drop. WB is down 1.48% on low volume today. BAC 2008 earnings were cut to $3.25 from $4.40, a 26% decrease, and BAC is trading down 1.09%, also on low volume.

While on the surface this lackluster reaction could be viewed as positive, I think the outlook today is too positive and if we get another negative report or two next week, I think this overbought market will drop again and allow a much better buy point than today. Referring back to our basic formula of P= E*M where P=price, E=earnings, and M- multiple, something has to give. Either the multiple goes up which makes an income stock less attractive, or the multiple holds and the price drops on lower earnings. One of the two must happen. As financials are still in the tank, my bet is that the multiple holds and the price drops and that’s what we want to see for the next buy.

This is why I like building positions in quarters rather than making the full buy in one trade. It cuts the risk. If your stock escalates well above your basis you can’t buy more but your pick is working for you. If you name pulls back on a general or sector downturn, NOT FUNDAMENTALS, then you have the chance to add more and lower your basis. I want to see BAC and WB taken down at least 5% each before I add, and I expect to have that opportunity soon. If not, then I have a 25% position of stock that’s working. I would never buy on such a severe downgrade before giving the market a day or two anyway to digest them.

The S&P went up a full 4.8% this week as of 2 PM Eastern, erasing a good chunk of the year’s loss. Whether it holds is of course the question. Joe Gross from PIMCO, a premiere bond investor, said on CNBC that Treasuries, the default safety haven, are the most overvauled asset in the world, given pending inflation. The bond market continues to sell off as the money is being redeployed into equities.

3PM Eastern–WB is finally reacting to the downgrade, and is down 3.28%. I think it goes deeper, and am looking for support around $26 which could be a good buy point. If it drops below $26 it will likely go into a freefall and isnt buyable until it finds some price support. BAC is holding for now.

Thursday, April 3: Once again the market shows some strength with decent action in face of disappointing job numbers. Tomorrow the unemployment data is released, and my bet is that it too will be disappointing. I want to add to the financials but pay less than what I did yesterday to lower the basis. I think that’s going to be a choice tomorrow as my bet the market will sell off pretty good with the pending report, and in addition traders don’t like to hold over the weekend so there might be some good entry points sometime Friday.

Sectors that are doing well today are ag, energy, and internationals. The first two are negative indicators based on inflationary pricing, but the third indicates that traders still believe in international growth. The commodity action in part reflects this too. I am able to add a little international (I use the EEM index for emerging countries and FXI for China- specfic growth) but they are both way up today and I want to buy them lower. I think everyone should be holding at least 20% in internationals. If you don’t have enough, there are a number of ETFs to look at. Stay away from Western Europe, and concentrate on Asia, Latin America, and Mexico. You can also put some pin money in Russian and Eastern Europe ETFs; just know that these countries are generally corrupt and your action may not be fully reflective of real growth.

Wednesday April 2: Dow, Nasdaq, an S&P ended down, but the Russell 2000 (the small caps) ended up. This may be significant in that the Russell 2k is usually the first major index to react well during the first part of a recovery.

FOMC Chairman Bernanke testified that a Recession is possible. Capital “R” yet, and the Dow gave up only 48 points. That small loss on his comment, which also included some profit taking from yesterday, could indicate that money is once again flowing out of cash and bonds back in to equities. Could we be bouncing on/near the bottom?

I made 3 buys today.

Added to XHB (Homebuilder ETF Index) at a slightly higher price than my last buy to reach a 50% position. That the XHB could withstand Ben’s dour comments was too much to pass up, and the chart looks like it could break out soon.

Initiated BAC ( Bank of America) which has a 6.5% dividend with 25% of a position. It seems pretty clear given the Bear Stearns bailout and the bill moving through Congress now that the Fed will not let a moneycenter or large bank fail.

Initiated WB (Wachovia Bank) which pays a 9.5% dividend, also 25% of a full position. Full credit to John Bovee and indirectly Dr. Differ and Ryan Jamison for doing the research work on this name. Wachovia is a risky play as the dividend could be cut by the company or the Fed if they need to become involved, but my bet is that the downside will be offset by the long term upside.

Bernenke is calling for little to no growth in 2008. The S&P growth might be 0% - 4% but BAC pays out 6.5% and WB 9.5% and today we don’t care if they EVER go up so long as that dividend stays in place. The other feature is that those dividends are taxed at 15%, so at an effective 38% tax bracket with AltMin, that 6.5% yield is worth about 11% and the WB div about 16% after taxes. That is HUGE!

Tuesday April 1: Dow up a mighty 391 points and the screen flashes green. All my watch stocks went way above my buy point, and it’s days like this when you’re tempted to follow the mo and jump in before you miss it completely. I didn’t do it, as I’ve learned that even if you have to wait 18 months like I did for Google, they always come home, and if you miss US Steel then you look at Schnitzer. If you don’t like CX here, then you look at EXP, and so on until you find the right deal in your sector.

Google is amazing, and a classic case of Wall Street loving it at 700 but hating it at 450. GOOG put on 24 points and 5.4% today but with only 79% of the normal volume so there’s nothing conclusive in this name yet. It’s still cheap at < 25x earnings IMO, and using Google from the enterprise side tells me they will continue to rule and that Yahoo is still irrelevant.

Here’s why. I set a budget for our executive suite advertising at a price of $1.00 per click and a budget of $200 for the month of March.

Google tells me one of the two things I need to know–my actual cost was not $200, but $23.60. The OTHER part of the metric that only I know is how it worked. Three leases signed this month, directly from that ad! HOW does McClatchy, Pennysaver, the Citizen, or a broker compete against that ROI??

Google goes back to $500 and 25x earnings about the same time McClatchy stops paying the dividend they can’t afford is my take. I’m fully vested in GOOG as I finished up the plan I started in 2006 when it was way down there earlier this year, but those option calls are looking pretty sexy to me.

Sold Kraft Foods for $.82 more than it was on Friday. Those that read my weekend email may correctly infer than I made more over the weekend on this laggard than I made the last 12 months. Still lags the S&P and that money can be used for better names.

I tried to get The Pirate to help with some direction on XHB, the homebuilder index I just bought that’s been red boy until today, but she was too busy slapping herself upside the head for not buying her own picks. We are in that space WAY too much when we play trader! Still long XHB and have no idea whether it was right or not, as I’m betting this runup today doesn’t mean as much as we wish it did.

Monday

It looks like the Altria split into Altria (MO) and Phillip Morris International (PM) was a success, as the two combined put on 5% so far today. With dividends at nearly 5% MO investors come out way ahead of the market on this deal. The two remain my largest holding and favorite stock(s), although others have given better gains. MO is the second longest term stock I have, and I doubt that I will ever sell either.

Put both these names on your Watch List if you can handle owning big tobacco. It’s hard to go wrong for long, in my experience, especially with the nice dividend. I am overweight on them or I’d buy more, and still may later.

Ensco (ESV) is a profitable oil driller and is up 3% today. I’d take some here, but I’m afraid it might be a short squeeze (short holders covering by buying, ramping the stock up quickly). The Industry Group on IBD is in a slight downtrend, and if were not for that I’d be buying here. It’s still 8% off it’s recent highs.

National Oilwell Varco (NOV) has been my biggest gainer ever, close to 1000% in just a few years. I have owned Varco on and off for 15 years, and always made money. Varco became National Oilwell Varco a couple of years ago. They manufacture equipment for the oil and gas drilling industry. I sold them at a near 52 week high in January, and am looking for a good buy point. NOV is up 1.67% today on decent volume, but again the IBD group is at 119 out of 197 with a slight downtrend. I want to own NOV when we get some confirmation that the group is advancing; I am guessing the tick up today is just market noise. Very difficult market to read, and I’m liking cash right now.

Also Watching: LNN–sprinkler manufacturer for ag industry. The ag group has been the hot hand for several months and its selling off. I think longer term ag is a great play, and that can be in the form of commodities (several index funds available) fertilizer (POT-Potash), or equipment and supplies like LNN or John Deere (DE). I am long an ETN which tracks Jim Rogers Ag Index, symbol RJA, and it’s selling off so I’d not make any buys yet. For those not in ag now, you might be a little late to the party, so let’s wait and see what the sector brings us over the next few weeks.

X–US Steel. X CEO was on Cramer last week and claims they are now the global low cost producer. That’s certainly unique and great news for the US, especially given that they’re are fully unionized and their new contract “allows productivity to play in to wages” was his comment. Steel is integral to all construction, and not surprisingly building new smelters (taking iron ore to steel) is not real popular with the neighbors so good luck in seeing any oversupply soon. X has it’s own US deposits so imports are minor; the low USD helps there. The only thing not to like about X is the price, and I’m waiting for a good take down to start a position.

Sunday March 30-Is it possible that the USD may reverse it’s decline and slowly gain some strength?

Hey, I’m watching one of my mindless prison shows on MSNBC and I just saw a FOREX commercial! Currency trading on MSNBC? That could be a classic contrarian indicator. The classic is the taxi driver trading internet stocks. When we saw that in 1999 we should have sold everything. When the EU strength against the USD is broadly known by people who normally don’t care, that’s a very positive sign that a capitulation may be in the works.
Tuesday: Dow up a mighty 391 points and the screen flashes green. All my watch stocks went way above my buy point, and it’s days like this when you’re tempted to follow the mo and jump in before you miss it completely. I didn’t do it, as I’ve learned that even if you have to wait 18 months like I did for Google, they always come home, and if you miss US Steel then you look at Schnitzer. If you don’t like CX here, then you look at EXP, and so on until you find the right deal in your sector.

Google is amazing, and a classic case of Wall Street loving it at 700 but hating it at 450. GOOG put on 24 points and 5.4% today but with only 79% of the normal volume so there’s nothing conclusive in this name yet. It’s still cheap at < 25x earnings IMO, and using Google from the enterprise side tells me they will continue to rule and that Yahoo is still irrelevant.

Here’s why. I set a budget for our executive suite advertising at a price of $1.00 per click and a budget of $200 for the month of March.

Google tells me one of the two things I need to know–my actual cost was not $200, but $23.60. The OTHER part of the metric that only I know is how it worked. Three leases signed this month, directly from that ad! HOW does McClatchy, Pennysaver, the Citizen, or a broker compete against that ROI??

Google goes back to $500 and 25x earnings about the same time McClatchy stops paying the dividend they can’t afford is my take. I’m fully vested in GOOG as I finished up the plan I started in 2006 when it was way down there earlier this year, but those option calls are looking pretty sexy to me.

Sold Kraft Foods for $.82 more than it was on Friday. Those that read my weekend email may correctly infer than I made more over the weekend on this laggard than I made the last 12 months. Still lags the S&P and that money can be used for better names.

I tried to get The Pirate to help with some direction on XHB, the homebuilder index I just bought that’s been red boy until today, but she was too busy slapping herself upside the head for not buying her own picks. We are in that space WAY too much when we play trader! Still long XHB and have no idea whether it was right or not, as I’m betting this runup today doesn’t mean as much as we wish it did.

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• While vacancy is still up 1.1% from 2007 at 7.2%, it began a trend downward in the first quarter.
• The only areas in where the vacancy exceeds 7.2% are Carmichael, Greenhaven, Rancho Cordova, Natomas(North and South), and Roseville/Rocklin. The average vacancy is weighted by the leasable square footage in each submarket.
• Notable improvements are in Elk Grove (4.3%) , Lincoln (6.1%) and Folsom (6.3%)
• Net Absorption is up from 2007, but trending down for the first quarter which saw 275,148 square feet leased.
• Construction is trending up from 2007 and up for the first quarter. Most of these 3.374M SF under development are large user deals, the new Elk Grove Mall, or projects to be delivered within 12-18 months. 242,000 SF was added to the GLA this past quarter.

” Although the retail market has slowed over the past twelve months…the Sacramento Region is poised to weather the storm. Torto Wheaton predicts job growth at 1.7% over the next two years, and an unemployment rate of 6.2%, against the California average of 6.1%. “

The article went on to say that the largest unemployment gains will be made in the government sector and in private educational and health services.

LocalCenters experienced our best leasing quarter since the 1st quarter of 2007. The prospective tenant quality is improving, and while rents have certainly softened for now, they appear to be firming up in the areas where vacancy is dropping.

More importantly, our tenant sales are improving overall. Our restaurants are doing OK to great, and all vacant restaurant space has been absorbed. Rents ultimately reflect the tenants’ ability to pay them, and the firming up is consistent with strengthening sales.

While nearly all tenants had a rough time in Q4 2007, especially during October, this is the time when those that bite the bullet and spend the money for advertising and offer value deals pull away from those who do not, and those tenants have a much higher chance of an ultimate failure rate.

Nationally the trend appears to be consistent with our local market. The quality retailers are reporting even to slightly higher same store sales, while the laggards are starting to fold. When this “thinning of the flock”has occurred in the past, it often serves as an indicator that we’re near a bottom and capitulation. From Associated Press:
“I think that the desire to sell is coming off,” said Thomas J. Lee, equities analyst at JPMorgan. The fact that the market has not been shaken by recent disappointing economic data “tells me that the recession is largely discounted.”
In addition to the congressional testimony, investors got a bit of relief from the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM said Thursday the services sector contracted only slightly in March — a stronger performance than in February, and a better reading than many economists predicted.

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Gene Marcial is a veteran financial journalist who easily beats the averages in his weekly column of stock market picks. Even for someone who does not regularly read Business Week it is well worth the effort to make a regular habit of Inside Wall Street, which will cover on average three stocks per week.Those familiar with recent current events might recall just how influential the Inside Wall Street column is.

Back in 2006 two employees at the Business Week printing plant in Wisconsin were charged with smuggling out advance copies of Business Week. The two were paid to smuggle the advance issues out by two employees of Goldman Sachs, Eugene Plotkin and David Pajcin, who used pre-publication information from the Inside Wall Street column to trade stocks.

Needless to say, the Goldman traders were charged with insider trading. Plotkin and Pajcin even had recruited the two men at the printing press to get jobs there for the purpose of smuggling out pre-publication copies and/or disclosing the names of the stocks mentioned in Inside Wall Street. One of the Business Week printing press smugglers was only 20 when arrested, and faced 15 years in prison. GS trader Euegen Plotkin was only 26 when he was arrested, and faced up to 70 years in prison.And in the most bizarre twist in this Inside Wall Street insider trading case - the SEC filed civil insider trading charges against Pajcin’s Aunt Sonya, a former underwear factory worker in Croatia, who was also trading on the smuggled info.

Plotkin and Pajcin traded about 20 different stocks on trading days prior to Inside Wall Street’s publication, and made approximately $340,000 on the trades. This scheme and its financial aftermath point to the expected rise a stock makes following a favorable mention in Inside wall Street.

And in case anyone is wondering at this point, two of the stocks profiled in the April 7th column of Inside Wall Street are: BMY - Bristol-Myers looks like a take-over target, and LEH - Lehman Brothers tanked following the Bear Stern debacle and the feeling is that those Lehman fears may be overstated. Goldman has a 12 month price target now of 58 a share.If you wish to know what the third stock is that is mentioned this week you will have to read Inside wall Street to find out!

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by Eileen The Pirate

This week-end I finally got around to reading the February/March issue of Traders Monthly magazine. What caught my eye in this issue was the fourth annual Trades of the Year - kind of like the Academy Awards for active traders/investors.

The Trade of the Year was John Paulson shorting the subprime market silly, shorting CDOs and eventually generating 3 billion in revenue. John Paulson’s Credit Opportunities LP Fund returned 590% in 2007.

For Long Equity Trade of the Year: Atticus Capital. Three years ago Atticus Capital correctly predicted a copper supply shortfall, and to play it bought a 29 million dollar stake in Phelps Dodge. FCX later acquired Phelps Dodge, Atticus Capital’s Phelps Dodge stake became a position in FCX, and FCX climbed higher throughout 2007 as demand for copper surged. At the end of 2007 Atticus’s original 29 million position had blossomed into a 3.1 billion dollar position in FCX, scoring Atticus a 100 bagger.

I don’t even remember which Hollywood actors won the Academy Awards in 2007. The 2007 trades of the year seem far more interesting. And I have only briefly summarized two of them.

And in conclusion, the lesson from John Paulson: “When you really believe in a trade, go hard or go home.”

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There’s little doubt that for the forseeable future we’ll be making most of our money in internationals and commodities in some form. My personal portfolio which has increased in value between 28% and 46% annually since 2003 is nearly 2/3rds internationals and commodities in the form of hard commodities or oil/energy/metals stocks, and gold miners.

You need to have the first three at a minimum, in my opinion. That’s less than $40 total as you will pay no sales tax and get free shipping. Order as many as you can afford as they are all considered top notch reads and you WILL pay for them with better investments. If you’re really tight, skip #2 and get #1 and #3. #2 Adventure Capitalist is both a travelogue, a commodity and international stock investment guide, and a read that will give you the midset you need to find the great deals. #2 Hot Commodities is more investment specific and a little more timely. Cramer’s #1 Real Money is a must own as you’ll refer to it time and time again.

I’ve ranked the first few in my order of choice. Select the others based on your interests.

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