One of the most under-rated tools for understanding technology trends is “Try to develop a compelling argument that supports a position diametrically opposed to the prevailing wisdom.”

If you can’t develop one, the prevailing wisdom is most likely (more or less) correct. If you can develop one, you learn that, for example, DRM is not as important an issue as it has been made out to be, in part because books are not the same ‘content objects’ as videogames, songs, movies, etc.

Thanks.

As for Amazon, competition doesn’t get anymore “real and credible” than B&N, Apple and Google, plus the sad posse of wannabes like BLIO, Copia, et al. What additional competition do you see jumping into the fray in a DRM-free world?

And the time and effort excuse implies that Kobo, Kindle, B&N, et al. are even trying to build an open API for people to sync their notes elsewhere. I seriously doubt any of them see their notes/highlights/bookmarking systems as anything other than another reader lock-in device.

(My biggest problem with Amazon’s competitors is that most of them are trying to beat Amazon by mimicking its tactics. Which is foolish.)

Since Bluefire don’t sync their bookmarks/notes to the cloud, expecting them to offer an API for that data is a bit unreasonable.

I’d love for Bluefire to add easy export for notes, but that’s a different issue.

Their true problem is that players like Kindle, Kobo, Barnes & Noble, Bluefire, Aldiko and others are not integrating their API into reading apps and platforms. That is not the fault of publishers and off course every API integration takes time and effort. Can’t blame small companies like Bluefire for not having the time and resources.

However, I don;t agree that dropping DRM doe snot matter. Amazon may remain the dominant player in a DRM-free world, but what matters is to enable retail competitors to be viable even at the margin. Only with real and credible competition will Amazon keep its game up, innovate and continue offering lowest prices and highest royalties.

It’s one thing to argue, like I did, that publishers should aggressively build a modular ecosystem to enable easy and efficient collaboration with retailers and ereader vendors, and a distribution system like that is a lot easier to do without DRM than with, unless they create an open DRM standard like movie studios did with DVDs.

But DRM-free on its own doesn’t solve anything. It’s only valuable if it is done specifically to enable things that cannot be done today. You can argue that it would let Kobo sell to Kindle hardware owners, but hardware lock-in is becoming less and less effective, anyway, as screens for tablets and phones improve. IMO, if Kobo can’t sell epubs, adding another format to their repertoire will just let them do a crap job of selling two formats instead of one.

Rather than giving Kobo another way to flop, why don’t publishers more effectively support new efforts—startups? Imagine how much more traction Readmill would have if it had launched selling books from all of the big six. And why are there still major publishers who haven’t signed an agreement with Feedbooks? Publishers have got to be one of the most passive-aggressive, dysfunctional, partners available in the business world. Always moaning about being the victim and never taking any action that will break their spiral of doom.

Also, there is one major difference between Amazon and Valve’s Steam: it’s a lot easier to build a games business without Steam than it is to build a publishing business without Amazon. Games businesses have other outlets with scale as well as a much longer and greater tradition for selling direct to players.

Honestly, I don’t see a viable angle for them, especially since the major publishers haven’t shown the stomach for playing the long game with initiatives like this. I see it being shuttered (eg: Book Army) or sold to a competitor (eg: InkPop) within two years.