Hurricane Floyd off the S.C. Coast

Could this be a sight we see from space this hurricane season?

It very well could be if the NOAA predictions for the 2010 season are right. Forecasters there released the numbers for the six months ahead and they look a bit ominous. Here is the breakdown:

• 14-23 Named Storms
• 8-14 Hurricanes
• 3-7 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

Looking at the entire Atlantic basin, forecasters say that there is at least a 70% chance of this forecast verifying and if it does it could be one for the record books. NOAA Administrator, Dr. Jane Lubchenco, says, “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record. The greater likelihood of storms brings and increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared.”

To read the full season outlook from NOAA, click this link.

Forecasters at Colorado State University have already issued their preliminary forecast for the season and it is close, but somewhat lower than the numbers we see above. Their forecast breaks down below:

• 15 Named Storms
• 8 Hurricanes
• 4 Major Hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)

One point to mention is that the CSU forecast was generated before we saw such a drastic decline in the current El Nino. With that feature rapidly weakening, it will allow for a more optimal setting for tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin.

We can’t urge you enough to prepare now. Many people are new here to South Carolina’s coast and have never had to endure the aftermath of a hurricane. Most have forgotten how to prepare but one way or the other, we can’t sugar coat these numbers. The more storms we have, the bigger the bulls eye gets on our beaches.

Please….don’t think it won’t ever happen here. Ask those that went through Hugo and prepared for Floyd? It will happen here again, we know that. When is the big question.

You can count on Live 5 Weather to keep you informed, prepared and ready if tropical weather heads our way. Starting next Tuesday, June 1st check this blog every morning for the Tropical Update. We will take a look at whats out in the tropics and what we need to be watching. Add us to your RSS feeds and your daily reading list.

See you on the air at noon!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

NOAA, the parent department that oversees the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, will release their 2010 Hurricane Season outlook today at 10:00am in Washington. We are expecting them to forecast an above average season for the months ahead. The team at Colorado State University has already put out their forecast and it holds a lot of work ahead for the 2010 season.

Once we have the NOAA numbers in hand, we will have them on the main Live 5 website and a complete break down here in comparison with the CSU forecast.

Busy day ahead so I better get an extra pot of coffee on!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Monday morning has started off interesting with flooding rainfall and thunder, but them main forecast concern behind the scenes is what the National Hurricane Center is watching several hundred miles to the southeast of the South Carolina coastline. An area of low pressure has been sitting out there over the weekend near the Bahamas and is forecast to drift back toward the SC & NC coastline over the next three days. Here is the latest graphical outlook from the NHC:

(Image Courtesy: NHC/NOAA)

If the low does continue to develop, it could become a sub-tropical or tropical storm by Tuesday. If it gets a name it would be Alex, the first name on the 2010 list. Most of the forecast models do bring this to storm strength and move it toward the coastline. Starting this year, the NHC will begin issuing watches and warnings 48 hours out, instead of 12 hours, so there is a possibility that we could see tropical weather watches for parts of the coast as early as later today or early on Tuesday. We do not expect this to be a major problem at this time, just a good rain producer if we are lucky and it gets close enough to the coast. It could bring us some coastal flooding, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents on its approach so keep an eye on beach conditions if you plan on heading toward the coast. Of course if it does develop…you will get the info here first so stay with Live 5 Weather.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

***Strong Storms Possible Sunday for the Lowcountry***

Clouds are moving across the Lowcountry this Saturday morning and some light showers are already showing up on the radar. I expect most of the day to stay dry but a few heavier showers or a storm or two may pop along the I-95 corridor by this afternoon. Highs today are in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will also pick up today out of the southwest and will be gusty at times. There will be a large severe weather outbreak to our west today over the Tennessee Valley. The latest updated from the Storm Prediction Center have posted a rare and dangerous High Risk of severe storms and tornadoes over Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

There is the real threat of damaging, long-track tornadoes over much of that area today. It will be a day for folks there to stay very weather alert. The storms that develop there during the day will approach our area as we head into the night tonight and tomorrow.The forecast gets tricky late tonight as a strong storm system moves out of the Gulf States into our region. Thunderstorms could be developing by early Sunday morning and last through the day. All the factors are in place for some severe storms by mid-morning Sunday into the night. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes are all possible. Highs will be near 80 and it will be breezy. The SPC has already issued a Slight Risk area for us tomorrow that may need to be upgraded as more data is fed into the forecast.

Make sure you are weather alert tonight and Sunday. Stay close to us here on TV and have a NOAA Weather Radio to get instant watches and warnings as they are issued.

Brad Miller will have the latest forecast this afternoon and evening on Live 5 News and we will post updates here as needed.

You can now get your forecast and more on your time. Watch our news re-broadcast and Live SuperDoppler HD on our new channel…Live 5 PLUS! You can find it on Comcast Channel 212, Knology Channel 146, Time Warner Channel 111, your HOME Telephone Cable listing and over the air using your antenna at channel 5.2 on your HDTV tuner.

Follow us on Twitter at : LIVE5WEATHER & on Facebook at: LIVE 5 NEWS

CHAD WATSON
Live 5 Meteorologist

Friday weather for us here in the Lowcountry really looks great. Sun and clouds with highs in the mid 80s!!! You can’t beat that at all. That good weather will last into Saturday as well but will change by Sunday as storms roll in from the west. A major severe weather event is shaping up for the southeast today and tomorrow with a large tornado outbreak expected.

Here are the outlook maps for today through Sunday:

The major threat today and tomorrow will remain to our west, across the deep south states. This type of pattern supports all the key signals that support a major tornado event. Some of them will most likely be strong and long track that could do some major damage. The threat will shift east over the next few days and will approach the South Carolina coast by Sunday. The good news is that I don’t think right now we will see a major severe weather event here in our backyard. The line of storms should be moving through the region around mid-day to early afternoon Sunday. Right now the main threat looks to be damaging winds and some large hail. We cant rule out a few isolated tornadoes so it does bear watching.

To read the latest on the severe weather threat to our west check out the Storm Prediction Center: www.spc.noaa.gov

Enjoy your Friday and Saturday but just check in from time to time to make sure you are ready for what may come our way on Sunday. We will watch it for you.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Thursday could not look any better for us across the Lowcountry!

TODAY: Lots of sunshine is on the way for the region thanks to a big ridge of warm high pressure moving in from the west. There may be a few high clouds around from time to time but it should not keep us from getting full sunshine. Highs today will have no problem getting back into the low 80’s. Humidity and dew points stay low so it will feel like perfect spring!

TONIGHT: Clear and calm condition will prevail again as lows fall back into the low 50s. Winds will be light out of the west from time to time. Morning time on Friday looks fantastic!

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: More sun, with a few clouds will return on Friday as highs again reach the lower 80s. We will also see a few more clouds late in the day. For Saturday, changing weather to our west will signal things to come for our neck of the woods. It will be another very warm day with highs in the mid 80s and a southwest wind. That will bring more moisture back into place which will set the stage for showers late in the evening.

SUNDAY STORMS: It looks like right now that a major severe weather outbreak will be unfolding over the deep south Saturday into Sunday. There is a chance that some strong tornadoes could develop over Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia Saturday afternoon and evening. Those storms will move toward the Atlantic coast on Sunday and it remains to be seen if they will still pose a severe weather threat for us on Sunday. We are watching it closely and will keep you up to date as things change.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Here we are about a month into spring and its hard to believe that we could use some rain.  Outside of the showers and storms from last Thursday, we haven’t had a good soaking rain since the middle of March.  We are still about 2 and a half inches above normal in the rain gauge for the year, but a good day of rain wouldn’t be a bad thing at this point. 

The overall weather pattern has changed significantly since the winter.  We had a very active southern branch of the jet stream from about Christmas until the middle of March.  This kept a parade of storms tracking across the southeast just about every 3 or 4 days.  Now the active weather is confined to the west and the eastern half of the U.S. has been dry and mild. 

Looking ahead, it doesn’t look like any kind of change to this pattern for at least the next week.  That means mostly sunny days with temps in the 70’s and nights in the 50’s.  Big weekend on the way for the Lowcountry, so this good weather is in good timing.  Women’s professional tennis is at the Family Circle Cup at Daniel Island, the PGA is playing the Verizon Heritage Tournament at Harbour Town in Hilton Head, the Grits Festival is in St. George, and the Blue Angels will be flying around the Charleston Harbor. 

Hopefully we can get a few showers in here next week to get rid of the pollen.  Have a great weekend everyone and don’t forget the sunscreen !!

Brad

Well, a little play on words.  You knew it was going to happen.  Not more than a month ago, we were still dealing with highs in the 50’s and lows below freezing.  Just like a snap of your fingers, we change the month and our weather changes just as fast.  It almost seems like we have skipped spring and gone right into summer.  Well, maybe its not that hot, but it sure feels good outside.  In fact, we tied the record high of 86 on Thursday. 

The pattern has done a complete 180 and now all the cold air is locked up in the western U.S. and that has allowed a ridge of high pressure to build across the southeast.  Temperatures have been above normal all week and there isn’t much change in store for next week.

Pollen has also been a factor in our weather lately.  It seems to be everywhere and a few showers would be very timely right now, but unfortunately, it doesn’t look like its going to happen.  That’s it for here at the Mighty 5.  We’ll keep you updated of course when weather happens, but until then have a great Easter Sunday !!  Sunrise by the way is at 7:04 am.

Brad

Well, it took a while, but I think our weather has finally turned the corner.  For the first time since December, the 7 day forecast DOES NOT have any freezing temperatures.  In fact, we have a few 70’s in the forecast for the upcoming week.  It has been a very cold winter across the Lowcountry and most of the U.S. for that matter.  In fact it was the coldest February since 1980 at the Charleston International Airport.  The average temperature was 45.9 compared to the normal February temperature of 50.7.  Almost 5 degrees colder than normal and in the the winter, that is significant – especially when it comes to that heating bill.  The good news is that we are seeing a change in the overall weather pattern as well.  We may still have a few chilly days heading into April, but the warm days will out number the cold ones.

Have a great Sunday everyone and enjoy the spring preview !!

Brad

Looks like there is some buzz about water temperatures and some new data scientists are working on to help predict hurricane season.  Typically, water temperature and events like El Nino have a big play in the formation of tropical cyclones (hurricanes).  Robert Ehrlich of George Mason University has been looking into two important variables in this equation and has a great insight in this website link:  http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/24839/?ref=rss

Right now, water temperatures are cooler than normal and it looks like the upcoming season might be slow to start.  Also a strong El Nino (warming of the Eastern Pacific) is underway and that interrupts vertical motion in tropical thunderstorms, which also keeps the number of hurricanes lower.

Bottom line, we’ll hear a lot about the upcoming hurricane season forecast, but it only takes one.  1992 was a quiet year, but one of the storm was Category Five Hurricane Andrew!  So, once again we talk about being prepared for that one storm that may come calling again here on the South Carolina coast.  We’ll keep you updated on LIVE 5 NEWS, LIVE 5 PLUS (our new channel on digital 5.2, Comcast 212, Time Warner, 811 and Knology 146) LIVE5NEWS.COM and our radio partners 101.7 CHUCK FM, STAR 99.7 FM, 95.9 FM Charleston’s Greatest Hits and WSPO.

I hope you can join us for tonight’s broadcasts starting at 4,5,6,7 & 11.

Latest 12z GFS model really cranks out the snow potential for us tomorrow night. Models are coming in colder and wetter which will enhance the chance for accumulating snow for the region. Here is the new snowfall map from the 12Z run of the GFS. This would point to 3-6″ for some if not more!!! Again…not written in stone. Just something to keep an eye on as things unfold.

GFS Snowfall Map

(Image Courtesy: WxCaster.Com)

More to come as the fun unfolds….

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Just in from the NWS:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
308 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

GAZ116-118-137-138-SCZ048>051-120415-
/O.NEW.KCHS.WS.A.0001.100212T1700Z-100213T1100Z/
INLAND BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-LONG-INLAND LIBERTY-BEAUFORT-
COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEMBROKE...SAVANNAH...LUDOWICI...
HINESVILLE...BEAUFORT...HILTON HEAD...EDISTO BEACH...CHARLESTON...
JASPER
308 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AS COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH OVERSPREADS THE
REGION...THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE
OVER TO ALL SNOW LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
INLAND FROM THE COAST...CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHARLESTON.

Once again we’re watching the computer models for winter weather here in the Lowcountry. All of the models are coming together for light rain on Friday afternoon changing to a mix of snow by Friday late afternoon, then snow by Friday evening and night.

The reason is that we have a southern stream storm system moving through the northern Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, we have very cold air in place and building in from the north. The combination of the low, wrapping moisture around cold air, and good lift in the atmosphere, equals possible snow for our area.

How much? Tough to tell. Usually the formula is around 8 to 1 or 8 inches of snow for every one inch of rain. This event looks like perhaps a dusting on the coast and some accumulations back inland up to 4 inches. That is just an outlook now looking at the models, and could change to more or less as we move into Friday afternoon.

In 1989, we had 6 to 8 inches of snow on the coast! That was a similar system, but the storm stayed closer to the coast than this one. This one moves very fast east and further south. So, the event will be only Friday afternoon/evening/night and out of here by Saturday morning. Therefore, the amounts will be less than 1989.

A rare event for sure here in South Carolina and tricky to forecast; so stay tuned and remember things can change as the system moves to our south.

I hope you can join us for our broadcasts throughout Friday and Friday night. We’ll keep you updated on TWITTER: LIVE5WEATHER and FACEBOOK: Bill Walsh, Chad Watson and Brad Miller.

Wow….this is one of those days that are very rare here in the Lowcountry. A day where significant snowfall is possible. The entire viewing area is under a WINTER STORM WARNING that continues until 6am Saturday morning. Here is the current watch/warning map from the NWS Charleston. All the counties in pink are under that Winter Storm Warning:

NWS Watches/Warnings (Courtesy: NOAA/NWS)

The radar has shown plenty of rain across the Gulf Coast this morning changing to snow just north of the coast. The area of low pressure that is causing all the wintry mess is gaining strength in the northern Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to move east toward the Florida coast, cross that state and move back into the Atlantic east of Jacksonville over the next 12 hours. This is the classic storm track and path for a deep south snow storm across South Carolina. The HPC snowfall map this morning paints an interesting picture for us:

HPC Snowfall Forecast (Courtesy: HPC/NOAA)

The map highlights areas that will get up to 4″ of snow. The lastest GFS snowfall output paints around 3-6″ on average for the area so we feel fairly confident that most areas will see snowfall.

GFS Snowfall Forecast (Courtesy: WxCaster.Com)

The questions now surround who gets the most on the ground. With the soil temperatures in the upper 30s, what initially falls will melt but if the snow is coming down hard enough, it will offset the melting rate and begin to stick. Areas along the coast will have the potential to get 1-2″, further inland over the rest of the area we are going with 2-4″ and an area of heavier snow may develop over the I-95 counties where 4-6″ may come down with some heavier amounts. We think right now bridges and overpasses will not be a big problem through the drive home. But, as the temps fall and we see  snow continuing to come down, roads will begin to become covered by mid evening into the overnight. If you have evening travel plans we urge you to be very wary and careful of road conditions.

The snow should begin to taper off by early on Saturday morning after 3-4am. Bridges and roads could be very slick before the sun comes up. Sunshine should help melt most of the snow by Saturday afternoon and it will all be a distant memory.

The last time we had measurable snowfall at the Charleston Airport was January, 25th of 2000! Here are some more past snow totals from the National Weather Service:

...CHARLESTON AIRPORT...
RECORDS GO BACK TO 1938.
HIGHEST DAILY SNOWFALL.

1. 6.0 INCHES...DECEMBER 23...1989
2. 5.4 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10...1973
3. 3.7 INCHES...DECEMBER 27...1980
4. 2.1 INCHES...DECEMBER 15...1943
5. 2.0 INCHES...MARCH 4...1969
6. 1.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9...1973
7. 1.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 18...1979
8. 1.5 INCHES...DECEMBER 22...1989
9. 1.3 INCHES...MARCH 2...1980
   1.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 22...1968

LAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR THE CHARLESTON AIRPORT WAS BACK ON
JANUARY 25...2000. AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

We will have updates as they come out here on the blog all day long!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well…what else can you say! It was a wild weekend for the Lowcountry and after it was all over and done, we could look back a say that we nailed the forecast. When you start talking snow, especially significant snow for the coast people either pay attention or say you are crazy and believe me, if you saw my email inbox you would get a good example of both! But that being said, most folks took the forecast in stride and took the advice and got off the roads once the snow began to fall. The National Weather Service office here in Charleston put together a great map that shows who got what from ol’ man winter:

Image Courtesy: NWS/Charleston WFO

From what I can tell, everyone in the Live 5 viewing area did get some snow on the ground. I wound up with a tad over 4″ at my home in West Ashley. Thanks to everyone who sent us pictures, videos and storm reports. They really helped us keep up with where the best totals were shaping up. We could not have done it with out all our great viewers! The response we had on our Facebook and Twitter feeds was fantastic. As of this morning we have had more than 1600 pics submitted to our my5@live5news.com photo and video feed. If you still have some cool pics, send them to us. Click the link to the left to log on and send them to us.

Again…from Bill, Brad and I…Thanks for choosing Live 5 to keep you informed as the storm rolled in!

Have a great Monday and get ready for a few showers!

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Wow…how things change in just a few days! I hope that you are all enjoying the clear sky and nice sunshine that we have been having over the past few days. There will be more of the same ahead as we see high pressure remaining in control of our weather into the weekend. Looking around at several of our forecast models this morning all show the same thing….nice and dry. Here is the latest 5 day QPF map from the HPC. The QPF map shows how much rain is expected over the next five days.

HPC 5 Day QPF

You can see some green over the coastal areas of South Carolina but they only add up to around 0.10-0.25″ of rain. That all comes next Monday night into Tuesday. This map is valid from today through mid-day next Tuesday.

So the bottom line is…enjoy the sun and milder temps through Sunday!

Thanks for checking in.

Chad Watson
Live 5 Meteorologist

Well the weather this past weekend really doesn’t get much better.  After a cold and wet winter, finally Mother Nature reminded us why we live here.  Sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 60’s.  Of course, just as the weather turned mild, I get a cold and am feeeling a bit “under the weather” this weekend.  A little Nyquil before bed will hopefully get me a good nights sleep. 

Anyway, we stay mild to start the work week, but showers are possible for the morning and evening drive on Monday.  Looks like our taste of spring is going to be just be a tease, because the end of the week looks chilly once again.  The good news is that we are headed towards March and climatologically the normal highs continue to climb.  That first 80 degree day is on the horizon and before you know it we’ll be talking about the pollen and the humidity. 

Have a great week everyone !!

Brad