Manchester City now have virtually no chance of retaining the Premier League title unless something hilariously catastrophic happens over at Old Trafford. Don’t bother with the long-shot odds on City in the latest Premier League betting – if Chelsea were in any reasonable form, City would be looking over their shoulder instead of looking far into the distance.

The manager’s gut reaction to the recent defeat away at Southampton is to blame the players. Players who have been predominantly consistent throughout the time the Italian has been in charge of the side.

Individual errors happen but there are one or two obvious mistakes that Mancini has made which have cost the side at vital times, times which would have made the difference in terms of the gap between first and second.

“I only want players who are ready for the fight in the last 12 games. I am very angry with a lot of my players, and very disappointed – you also need to be able to win because you fight for every ball, and fight against an opponent who also wants to win the game,” Mancini told BBC Sport.

The first obvious error Mancini made which has cost the club ground in the title race was to start Mario Balotelli against Manchester United.

Maybe he was hoping for a repeat of Balotelli’s performance against United at Old Trafford last season but it didn’t work. He looked lethargic and uninterested and it took Mancini too long to work out that Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez was the better combination.

The other error that Mancini has frequently made is being unable to decide which set of tactics he wants to take into matches.

He has frequently switched to three at the back in matches across all competitions this season which has provided extra space for other Premier League opponents to exploit.

It doesn’t take a genius to work out that a system of three at the back means more space down either flank for opponents to exploit if the wing backs or the wingers do not get back and provide extra cover.

The decision to exclude central defender Joleon Lescott for large parts of this season is also baffling.

Lescott was one of the most important players at the back end of last season when City won six matches in a row to secure the title after United led by eight points.

Matija Nastasic is not a bad defender but he is not consistent enough to hold down a central defensive position alongside Vincent Kompany.

There are several reasons why City find themselves in the position they’re in and the manager needs to bear in mind all of them before pointing the finger at everyone else.

There is still hope but the chance of United slipping up again is something that Sir Alex Ferguson is very unlikely to allow.

The CIES model includes four main criteria for league success: international activity of players, their league experience, squad stability and the quality of signings.

The combination of all these elements suggests that the City, United and Arsenal have the best chances of finishing in the top three positions of the rankings, with City having the highest probability of winning the Premier League. City finishing in the top three in the Premier League this season looks to be as sure a bet as getting a four-of-a-kind hand at www.partycasino.com, but are they really the favourites for the title?

City’s transfer activity has mostly centered around refreshing the squad and simultaneously reducing the wage bill, while we’ve seen United and Arsenal add to their squads (but probably not enough) and Chelsea have significantly refreshed their squad.

However, the biggest benefit for City may be Tevez’s reintegration into the side and Balotelli’s growing maturity this season, plus the fact that they have a very stable squad and now that they have the league title under their belts, they are less likely to suffer from nerves this season.

Last season the league title came down to City holding their nerve while United (injuries and dropped points notwithstanding) losing theirs at key moments in the season.

This season, as long as United don’t fix their midfield problem and Arsenal keep selling their best players, City are by default the favourites for the league title. Even Chelsea, with a new manager and a relatively new team, are not ready yet to properly challenge for the title (although consistency through to December / January can change things quickly).

There is no controversy here (or is there?) but it has more to do with City’s seeding in the Champions League and the fact that they are newcomers to the European stage, putting them in the second pot in UEFA’s seeding policy.

Still, when you consider that the only way this could have been a tougher draw was to have drawn an Italian team and the odds for getting such a tough draw were higher than the toughest casino games at Lucky Nugget, you wonder what City will need to do to progress beyond the group stages this year.

The draw, and today’s transfer deadline, intensifies the need for strengthening City’s squad. So far any transfers agreed to were distinctly designed to rotating City’s squad players, shipping out unwanted players for fresh blood (and cheaper wages). City still need to offload certain players and bring in a quality defender, and looking at their tough fixture list in 2012 that would now involve two matches with Real Madrid and two more with Dortmund, they will need to have their best squad available to stand a chance of qualifying for the knockout rounds.

If Mancini gets his way today and City bring in the reinforcements he’s been asking for since the end of last season, City will once again be a formidable rival and a side that will genuinely test Real Madrid and could potentially look to top their group. Last season City were more fortunate than other clubs with injuries and this year’s recruitment policy looks designed to help deflect any potential crisis caused by injuries.

Only time will tell if City can cope with the expectations of defending their title and being successful in the Champions League (where a minimum last eight appearance seems necessary). It’s uncharted territory as far as City are concerned, but there’s no where they would rather be. If City want to dominate football, it all starts here, defending their Premier League title and succeeding in the Champions League.

The transfer window exuberance that has characterised City’s rise to domestic dominance has not been evident this summer, with the Premier League champions forced to be more frugal in the market due to the impending Fifa Financial Fairplay regulations. At the time of writing, Jack Rodwell is the only new name that the Etihad Stadium faithful will be getting printed on the back of their football kits, but Mancini will still want to add a new face or two to his contingent before the window closes at the end of August.

A major boost for the champions is the commitment shown by club skipper and talisman Vincent Kompany this summer, with the Belgian powerhouse signing a new six-year contract with the club. Mancini will be keen to keep this star-studded squad together, and with more time training and playing to together, under Kompany’s lead there is no reason that City can’t go on to retain the title in 2012-13.

Another positive for the club is that Carlos Tevez has seemingly once more got his head back in the game, and is committed in the search for success this term. The Argentine’s return to form and maximum fitness will be as good as a new world-class signing for City, and the South American was on target in the side’s opening day victory over Southampton on Sunday.

The character shown in coming back from 2-1 down to triumph 3-2 was indicative of the never-say-die attitude the squad showed last term, and this group of individual stars have pulled together to form a motivated and focussed squad. One negative of the opening-day triumph was the injury picked up by Sergio Aguero, however the strength of the collective group has Kompany confident that they can continue winning ways without the influential forward.

Despite Mancini’s claims that his side are not favourites this term, City are certainly the team to beat as they enter the campaign as champions. With a frustrated Manchester United intent on revenge and Chelsea splashing the cash, City will need to improve this term to retain their crown, but have the players at their disposal to overcome allcomers once more in what should be a captivating campaign.

Premier League

City’s lavishness in the transfer market since Sheik Mansour’s takeover has propelled them into one of the country’s best teams, and the blue side of Manchester looked unstoppable early in the 2011-12 season. With David Silva in mercurial form and Edin Dzeko in freescoring mood, City powered to the top of the division and made their intent to challenge painstakingly clear with a 6-1 win at Old Trafford.

Heading into Christmas the title race was starting to take shape with the Manchester rivals leading the way, and Tottenham keeping pace surprisingly. In 2012 the advantage shifted hands on a number of occasions, with City throwing away a lead to finds themselves eight points adrift of Sir Alex Ferguson’s men with less than ten games remaining. With the reputed strong finish of perennial table-toppers United and City seemingly demoralised, many stated that City would have to make do with second – with even Mancini admitting defeat.

However, jointly due to a United collapse and strong City form, the Citizens clawed back the advantage through dogged displays, a 1-0 derby win and victories over other top teams such as Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle and Arsenal. Going into the last day City were level on points with United, and needed only to beat QPR. Finding themselves 2-1 down the game entered injury time, and the rest is history.

Highlights of the campaign obviously include the dramatic last day, but the Yaya Toure-inspired 2-0 win over Newcastle on Tyneside in the penultimate game and 3-2 home victory over Tottenham hold massive importance. The rout of United at Old Trafford and an imperious and unbeaten home record capped a fantastic league campaign for the side.

Domestic Cups

Despite triumph in the league, City were unable to back this up with a final appearance in the domestic cups. In the FA Cup Mancini’s men were drawn against rivals United in a mouth-watering third round tie, but the Red Devils exacted revenge for their 6-1 defeat in the league with a 3-2 win at the Etihad Stadium.

In the Carling Cup City made it through to the semi-finals, but a determined Liverpool side eliminated the Citizens to set up a Wembley date against Cardiff. Mancini may well have had other priorities, but next season will look to have increased squad depth to compete on all fronts.

Champions League

City’s first venture into the Champions League was made all that bit more difficult by being drawn in the ‘Group of Death’ alongside eventual finalists Bayern Munich, Napoli and Villarreal. The German team showed their superiority by winning the group, whilst the El Madrigal outfit finished pointless and bottom of the pile. This left City fighting it out with Walter Mazzarri’s men for the other qualification spot, and the Italians proved a tricky opponent over two games – a draw in England and defeat in San Paolo eliminated City.

There were no real highlights for City in Europe, although a Sergio Aguero last-gasp winner against Villarreal at home buoyed the fans. However, Carlos Tevez’s temperamental antics at the Allianz Arena and defeat in Italy meant that it was a fruitless Champions League campaign. Defeat to Sporting Lisbon in the Europa League ended a disappointing return to European football.

All-in-all it has been an excellent season for City due to their Premier League triumph, and the club’s fans will proudly state that they support the best team in the land. However, for Sheik Masour’s objective of world domination to become anywhere near a reality progression is needed in European football’s holy grail – the Champions League – whilst United amongst others will come back stronger than ever next season in the Premier League.

Get your free football bets at FreeBets.org.uk.

There is a long way to go. Some may argue that experience and an ‘easier’ run-in favour the reigning champions, but on the other hand City’s squad and home form could swing it in their favour. In my opinion, I believe it is going to be the closest title yet, with Manchester City winning the league on goal difference. And this is how I believe it will happen..

Out of the 10 games remaining for both Manchester Clubs, both have to go to Molineux (where both teams lost last year) and play QPR at home. These teams are both down at the bottom, which aren’t particularly the teams you want to  play at the tail end of the season. However, I believe that both teams will gain 3 points from the QPR game and then both scrape a win at Wolves away.

If you take the remaining fixtures and give the same result to the other Manchester club, then City would win on goal difference (depending on beating United in the derby). This means that United would win their other 3 home games Aston Villa, Fulham and Swansea. In addition, United would go to Wigan and Blackburn, and win both fixtures.

City’s run in contains teams higher up the table, with Arsenal away and Chelsea at home within these. However, if you contrast these 2 games with United’s fixtures, United won both of these.

However, if you take City’s loss at Sunderland and give United 0 points as well at the Stadium of Light, give City just a point at Stoke City and 0 points away at Newcastle, this means that both teams would finish on 91 points if City won in their home fixture against their arch rivals. City currently have 8 better goal difference, which would surely still mean that in 10 games time their goal difference will be superior.

(P.S I don’t believe that City will finish on 91 points, especially with their current poor away form, I was just comparing the 2 sides last 10 games)

Any thoughts / beliefs behind last 10 games?

Chelsea have put a questionable period behind them and seemingly got their season back on track; Andre Villas Boas’ men have beaten Wolves and Newcastle 3-0 in their last two league games, and Valencia by the same margin in Europe. The victory over the Spaniards guaranteed a place in the knockout rounds for the London club, and will have done much to take pressure off an under-fire coach.

Didier Drogba is back in the Chelsea attack at the expense of Fernando Torres, and the Ivory Coast international has led from the front in his side’s revival in form. With Juan Mata and Daniel Sturridge also playing well in a dangerous three-pronged attack, the Stamford Bridge faithful will urge their team to take the game to their big name opponents. Sturridge will be motivated to prove a point against his former employers, and must be marshalled carefully.

Despite a 2-0 victory over a scratch Bayern Munich side in midweek, City crashed out of the Champions League at the expense of Napoli. Europa League football awaits Roberto Mancini’s side, but nothing has changed in the club’s list of priorities; City want to win the Premier League. With the Etihad Stadium team unbeaten domestically and with a five-point buffer at the top of the English top flight, things are looking good for City, but a tricky festive fixture list is sure to test their resolve.

City will be buoyed on by the fact that both Arsenal and Liverpool (twice) have won at Stamford Bridge in recent times, and if the visitors play to their potential there is no reason they won’t leave London with three points. The Citizens have few injury concerns, and their Italian manager has a choice to make 0f who to play in midfield, with Nigel De Jong, James Milner and Gareth Barry all in contention to slot in beside Yaya Toure and David Silva.

This is an important game for City also, as a win could effectively make it a two-horse race, leaving Chelsea 13 points off the pace. United will be smarting after their Champions League exit in midweek, and Sir Alex Ferguson will have his side’s thoughts focussed on cutting the deficit in the race for domestic honours. A win for City would be a real confidence booster going into the New Year, and has the ability to deliver doubts into United minds, as the blue side of Manchester’s ruthless streak would continue.

Which is why Wednesday night’s elimination from Europe’s premier competition comes as an even greater shock to the system of Blues’ fans but the hotels in Manchester will hardly be complaining since the Europa League will only confirm extra games for the Citizens to play. But Group A is in the past now and the Italian tactician must ensure his squad brimming full of superstars are focused on their domestic matters at hand as well as making sure his team do well in the Europa League.

Indeed it is fair to say that City never really transferred their stunning domestic form onto the continental stage. However their failure cannot be put down to ”inexperience” as some pundits seen very keen on. Napoli are hardly a regular team for the contention of this trophy. Whatever went wrong from the Blues, they could never properly correct it. A 1-1 draw at home to the aforementioned Italian club suggested they were finding it difficult to adapt to life playing against the top of what Europe had to offer.

The comprehensive 2-0 defeat suffered away to Bayern Munich was overshadowed by the infamous Carlos Tevez incident but the one certainty that can be gathered from that night was how much Ribery and co. stood head and shoulders over the competition debutantes. 2-1 and 3-0 wins against Villarreal offered the Etihad Stadium outfit hope heading into their penultimate group game against Napoli. However the Serie A club won 2-1 in a decisive game which in hindsight, truly ended City’s campaign.

Their destiny was out of their hands, regardless of how the Citizens fared against Munich in their final group game as a win for Napoli against Villarreal would ensure the Blues would have to be content with the Europa League>. The table-toppers comfortably saw off a weakened Munich side 2-0 in Manchester but a similar result in favour of Napoli in Spain confirmed their progress to the last 16 of the Champions League.

Sheikh Mansour will definitely be hugely disappointed by the underwhelming displays of his club in this season’s Champions League group stage as his several hundred million outlay hasn’t transformed them into a European force yet. Participating in Europe’ second tier competition will be a slight humiliation for the star-studded collection of players at Eastlands but they should have little to no problems negotiating a path to the Europa League final which is to be staged in Bucharest, Romania on 9th May 2012.

Mancini’s charges will be favourites to lift the trophy on that date as they look to juggle and win four competitions come the end of the season. Their surprisingly early Champions League elimination should have pose no adverse effects to City’s march to their first ever Premier League trophy and only some rotten luck in the cup competitions will see them fail to pick up silverware there as the Sheikh’s plans look to finally bear fruition, albeit late in terms of continental progression.

Liverpool v Man City

Mancini will urge his troops not to dwell on their Champions League defeat to his countrymen, and City must regroup ahead of what will be a tricky trip to Anfield. Liverpool will be full of confidence after their 2-1 win over Chelsea last weekend, and will look to take the game to the visitors.

Citizens have been ruthless this season domestically, and the travelling fans will hope to see a similar performance to the one that saw them annihilate rivals Manchester United at Old Trafford. Mario Balotelli has recovered from illness and he is to be considered for a continuation of his place in the starting line-up; the Italy international has scored nine goals in his last ten games.

The visitors can expect a fiery atmosphere and a passionate performance from the Merseysiders, however if City can weather an early storm, they have every chance of getting three points; those interested in Premiership betting should know that Betfair give them odds of 2.64 to record a victory.

Arsenal v Man City

The Carling Cup will probably be an afterthought for City fans with important games in the Champions League and Premier League upcoming, but another cup success is only three victories away. City travel to the Emirates to take on a resurgent Arsenal on Tuesday night, less than 72 hours after facing Liverpool.

Both sides are likely to field weakened teams in this one, but a victory would be sure to keep the ball rolling, and keep the Manchester club in all competitions. The Gunners are in good form, but expect Arsene Wenger not to risk main man Robin van Persie in the cup tie.

Man City v Bayern Munich

Hurting after his side’s defeat in midweek, Roberto Mancini downplayed City’s chances of winning the Champions League after the defeat in San Paolo.

“We should be realistic. I do not think we have a team to win the Champions League this season.”

Mancini is quoted as saying in BBC Sport.

The Premier League team face an uphill battle to even get out of Group A, as a win against Bayern Munich is now a must, but may not even be enough to see the side reach the knockout rounds. Villarreal must overcome Napoli at El Madrigal for City to stand a chance, but Mancini will urge his side to focus on the Bundesliga giants rather than watch what is happening in Spain.

Jupp Heynckes’ side comprehensively beat City at the Allianz Arena back in September, and revenge will look to be exacted on Wednesday 7th December. If Mancini’s men can starve the likes of Mario Gomez and Franck Ribery possession there is no reason why the home side cannot win, but a better performance than that shown in Germany is needed.

Manchester City will travel to Spain to take on Villarreal at El Madrigal in the form of their life as they seek to secure Champions League knock-out action. The Group A moment of truth will kick-off at 7:45 p.m. on 2nd November and an explosive match it to be expected as both sides pass the halfway mark of the group stage.

Mario Balotelli - Love him or hate him, nobody can slate his talent!

Averaging fives goals per game in their last three games, including hitting Manchester United for six at Old Trafford, Manchester City are many people’s  favourites to emerge victorious from the tie. Despite their lethal finishing up front and their miserly defence at the back, this game will provide a huge test of their character as this ground has proved frustrating for many English teams in the past, particularly Manchester United and Arsenal.

The dramatic home fixture, where Sergio Aguero scored a winner at the death, suggests although their domestic form is irrepressible, their continental form could be better. It seems the Yellow Submarine, despite being nowhere near the Citizens in terms of having a magnificent squad will plenty of strength in depth, they are more than a match for Roberto Mancini’s men as they almost snuck a draw from the Etihad stadium. However this could be where they announce themselves to the rest of Europe after some indifferent displays so far against Napoli and Bayern Munich.

So as Roberto Mancini brings his starlets to the Iberian nation, expect a thrilling encounter and with the momentum firmly on the Blues side, a comfortable win for the away side is in order.

Wolves are all that stand between Manchester City and their visit to Spain for some Champions League action, watch Clarence Seedorf, Gianluigi Buffon, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Patrick Viera recreate some of the historic moments of the competition:

This message was brought to you by Heineken, sponsors of the UEFA Champions League, but it contains our writer’s opinion.