• S&P Futures are lower. Moving near the lower bound of a descending triangle. Watch for the break below the lower bound at 5619.25.
• Odds are for a sideways to a down day. Watch for a break above 5663.50, which may change the sentiment.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Final Manufacturing PMI (49.8 est.; prev. 49.8) at 9:45 AM.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.5 est.; prev. 50.3) at 10:00 AM.
  • ISM Manufacturing Prices (64.6 est.; prev. 62.4) at 10:00 AM.
  • Construction Spending (0.3% est.; prev. -0.2%) at 10:00 AM.
  • JOLTS Job Openings (7.68M est.; prev. 7.74M) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5579.50, 5550.42, and 5515.61.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5585.65, 5609.07, and 5627.56.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5663.50, the high at 5:45 AM, and 5618.25, the low at 7:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5656.25, and the index closed at 5611.85 – a spread of about +42.25 points; the futures closed at 5653.25; the fair value is +3.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were down – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -25.50, Dow by -248 and NASDAQ by -75.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mainly up–Mumbai and Singapore were down.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are higher.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mixed.
  • Soft commodities are mainly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.895%, down -16.2 basis points.
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.210, down -9.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.577%, down -1.4 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.315 up from 0.249.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.367, up from 0.285.
• VIX
  • At 22.98 @ 8:30 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA.
  • Recent high = 24.80 on March 31; low = 17.67 on February 27.
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly higher on Monday, March 31 in higher volume. The NASDAQ Composite and the Russell 2000 closed down. The major US index gapped down at the open and made the day’s lows in the first half-hour of trading. They then turned around and traded higher for the rest of the day. Most closed their opening gaps. ed lower and then traded lower for the rest of the day. Major indices, except the two Dow averages and the NYSE Composite, broke below their 2025 lows, before bouncing above them.

The dollar index and the energy futures closed up; the precious metals closed lower mixed and the industrial metals higher; the soft commodities were mainly down. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All S&P sectors closed up.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 (+0.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.0%) closed at or near highs after rebounding off early session lows. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) also staged a rebound after trading down as much as 2.7% at its low but still settled slightly below Friday’s close.

The 10-yr yield settled one basis point lower at 4.25% after hitting 4.19% earlier. The 2-yr yield settled unchanged at 3.91% after hitting 3.85%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.3% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.6% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -6.5% YTD
• Russell 2000: -9.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -10.4% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• March Chicago PMI 47.6 vs. 45.3 Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 45.0 from 45.5

The post Morning Notes – Tuesday, April 1, 2025 appeared first on Market Remarks.

1) The S&P 500 has broken below a Bearish flag

The S&P 500 reached its all-time high on February 19, hitting an intraday peak of 6147.43, surpassing the prior high of 6128.18 set on January 24. On the daily chart, the index formed a double top pattern, with an intermediate low of 5923.93 recorded on February 3. By early March, the index had broken below the intermediate level, reaching the 161.8% extension target by mid-month before attempting a bounce. However, the rebound was weak and doomed to fail, hampered by the vagaries of the current geopolitical and economic winds blowing in from Washington, DC.

The feeble bounce attempt, which faltered at the resistance level marked by the January 13 low, led to the formation of an upsloping flag—another bearish pattern. On Friday, the index broke below this pattern as well. The first measured target, the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 5390.00, aligns with a support at 5402.62. The second measured target, the 100% extension at approximately 5150.00, lies within the spitting distance of another support level at 5119.26. The 161.8% extension target—near 4750.00—is below the December 2023 high of 4780.98. These levels represent declines of -12.3%, -16.3%, and -22.8% from the all-time high, respectively.

Bottom Line: The S&P 500’s path of least resistance is downward. The once-popular kid, ‘buy-the-dips’ (BTD), has been dethroned by its fresher, cooler counterpart, ‘sell-the-rips’ (STR). There is a strong likelihood that the index will reach the second measured target, approximately 5150.00, which also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the October 2022 lows.

2) The NASDAQ Composite Turbocharged and Following Suit

The NASDAQ Composite hit its all-time high on December 16, 2024, reaching a peak of 20240.58. In January and February, the tech-heavy index made two runups to break above this level, but both efforts fell short.

In late February, NASDAQ broke below a key support level—the January 13 low. By the seventh trading day of March, it reached the 61.8% measured target of the double top pattern. The bounce faltered much below the 200-day SMA but still completed the bearish upsloping flag. On Friday, March 28, the index broke below this pattern as well. The first measured target, the 61.8% level around 16500.00, is approximately 150 points below a support level at 16668.57. The second target, the 100% extension near 15400.00, lies below another support level at 15708.53. The third target, the 161.8% extension near 13650.00, is positioned above a support level established in November 2023. These levels represent declines of -18.3%, -23.7%, and -32.5% from the all-time high, respectively.

Bottom Line: There is a strong likelihood that the index will reach the first measured target, near 16500.00, which also coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from the October 2022 lows.

3) The Dow Theory Agrees—We Are Going Down.

The Dow Theory posits that the two averages—industrials and transportation—move in tandem, confirming each other’s trends. Since 2021, however, we have observed a slight deviation with both making new all-time highs simultaneously. In November 2021, the transports peaked at 18246.51 and the industrials at 36565.73. While the industrials reached another high in January 2022, the transports did not follow. Both averages subsequently declined until October 2022, before embarking on a fresh bull run. The industrials achieved several all-time highs, culminating in their last peak of 45073.63 on December 4, 2024. Their attempt to breach that level in 2025 stalled slightly lower at 45054.36 on January 31, a week after the S&P 500’s January high. On the day of the S&P 500’s all-time high, the industrials were more than 1.0% below their high.

Transports, on the other hand, have not surpassed their high of 2021. Their first attempt, rising from the September 2022 lows, stopped in July 2023 at 16717.04. The second attempt petered out on November 21, 2024, at 17845.72. During the rally from October 2022, the two averages confirmed each other’s highs until December 2024. Since then, neither of them has made new highs. Instead, they have been making lower lows.

The Dow Industrial Average is currently at the lower bound of a double top pattern. It previously broke below the intermediate low and is now attempting to do so once again. The measured down targets of this pattern are as follows: the 61.8% extension is approximately 39850, the 100% extension is around 38600, and the 161.8% extension target is near 36620. These levels correspond to declines of -11.6%, -14.3%, and -18.8% from the all-time high, respectively.

Bottom Line: The Dow Theory has signaled that we are in a downtrend. This will persist until both averages stop making lower highs and lower lows and start making higher highs and higher lows.

The post Last Week, the Market Made a Bad Turn—It Could Get Uglier. appeared first on Market Remarks.

• S&P Futures are lower. Moving sideways within a 30-point range around 5570.00 since 5:00 AM.
• Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break above 5600.00 for a change of sentiment.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Chicago PMI (45.5 est.; prev. 45.5) at 9:45 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5527.59, 5504.65, and 5480.54.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5572.42, 5591.25, and 5619.33.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5600.00, the high at 6:00 PM on Sunday, and 5552.25, the low at 7:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Friday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5624.50, and the index closed at 5580.94 – a spread of about +43.50 points; the futures closed at 5623.00; the fair value is +1.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were down – at 8:45 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -51.25, Dow by -259 and NASDAQ by -244.50.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed down–Mumbai and Singapore were closed.
• European markets are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mainly higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.239, down -3.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.626%, up +4.1 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.922%, down -5.8 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.317 up from 0.293.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.387, up from 0.312.
• VIX
  • At 23.88 @ 8:45 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA.
  • Recent high = 29.57 on March 11; low = 17.67 on February 27.
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Friday, March 28 in higher volume. The major US index opened lower and then traded lower for the rest of the day. The dollar index and the crude oil futures closed down; the metals – industrial and precious – closed mixed; and the soft commodities closed mixed, too. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All but one S&P sectors – Utilities -closed down.

From Briefing.com

The major US equity indices experienced significant declines today, driven by escalating inflation concerns and deteriorating consumer sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, the S&P 500 fell 2.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite registered a 2.7% loss.

The 2-yr yield sank nine basis points today to 3.91% and the 10-yr yield settled 11 basis points lower at 4.26%. This leaves the 2-yr yield four basis points lower this week and the 10-yr yield one basis points higher this week.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -2.3% YTD
• S&P 500: -5.1% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -6.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: -9.3% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -8.4% YT

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• February Personal Income 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.9%, February Personal Spending 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.6%); Prior was revised to -0.3% from -0.2%, February PCE Prices 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.3%, February PCE Prices – Core 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%); Prior 0.3%
• March Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Final 57.0 (Briefing.com consensus 57.9); Prior 57.9

The post Morning Notes – Monday, March 31, 2025 appeared first on Market Remarks.

The tariffs are impacting the psyche, and people are reacting. Their inflation expectations are firming up, or as they say, the inflation expectations are anchoring. The 5-year Forward Inflation Expectations have been between 2.40% and 2.24% since November 2023. After declining from the high in April 2022, the University of Michigan Inflation Expectation jumped to 4.9% in February from 2.6% in November 2024.

Both indicators missed the CPI’s high point in July 2022—they were lower than the actual CPI of 9.1%. Historically, however, their predictions have been above the real value. The CPI has been rising since September 2024, though it is at around the same level as that in February 2017 and July 2018.

The Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, declined to 2.65% in January after rising for three prior months. It has declined since the February 2022 high but is still above the ten-year high before March 2021.

The Bottom Line: Despite the downtrend, both inflation and inflation expectations are plateauing at levels above the Fed’s 2-percent target. While the downtrend has yet to reverse, the threat of tariffs has arrested its decline.

2) The US Market Indices Are in Correction Territory

Last week, the S&P 500 reached a correction level—it declined by -10.5%, on an intraday basis, from an all-time high. On February 17, 2025, the index made a Double-Top chart pattern, broke below its intermediate low, and achieved the pattern’s 161.8% extension target. The next support seems to be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement—around 5125.00—of the rally from the October 2022 lows.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by -9.8% from its highs. It has just broken below a double-top chart pattern with measured targets around 39,850 and 38,650. Its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is around 38,750.

The volatile NASDAQ Composite has suffered greater damage. It declined by -14.7% from its high. It also broke below a double-top chart pattern, with a measured target of 161.8%, around 16,600. Its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is around 16,340.

The Bottom Line: The major U.S. indices are undergoing a correction. While they haven’t yet entered bear market territory, there remains significant downside potential before the bulls regain the confidence to resurface with gusto.

3) The Dollar Has Lost its Mojo

The US Dollar index made a double bottom in September 2024 and broke above the pattern’s intermediate high following the US election. The index achieved the pattern’s 100% measured target around the 110.00 level, which coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the post-Covid high of 114.75 in September 2022 to the July 2023 low of 99.22. The index has been moving down since the new US administration’s inauguration in January and the threats of tariffs.

The Bottom Line: The dollar index presents a shorting opportunity with the next meaningful support below the 100 level, the low of September 2024. The British Pound and Euro present good buying opportunities with targets of 1.3423 and 1.1214, respectively.

4) The 30-Year US Treasury at a Critical Junction

The 30-year US Treasury briefly broke above the downtrend line from the March 2020 high in the last week of July 2024. However, the break was short-lived, as the bonds fell below the trend line following the 2024 election. Since then, the bonds have avoided making a new low and have again risen above the trendline. Nevertheless, their performance remains influenced by the uncertainty surrounding the impending tariff war and the Fed’s anticipated actions in the coming months.

The Bottom Line: The bonds have broken out of the downtrend but have yet to establish an uptrend. The 30-year US Treasury remains confined within a trading range between 120 and 115 levels.

5) The Commodities are on the Rise

Commodities are rising. The CRB index has risen by more than 3.5% since the beginning of 2025. It has been outperforming the S&P 500 since the 2024 election. It has also been near the upper limit of a trading range—between 316 and 250—since July 2022.

The Bottom Line: Commodities typically rally in the later stages of the business cycle, and their rally often precedes a recession.

The post Five Short Market Stories in Charts appeared first on Market Remarks.

• S&P Futures are lower. Moving within a descending triangle.
• Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility. Watch for a break above 5761.00 for a change of sentiment.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Unemployment Claims (224K vs. 225K est.; prev. 225K) at 8:30 AM.
  • Final GDP (2.3% vs. 2.4% est.; prev. 2.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Good Trade Balance (-147.9B vs. -134.6B est.; prev. -155.6B) at 8:30 AM.
  • Prelim Wholesale Inventories (0.3% vs. 0.7% est.; prev. 0.8%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Pending Home Sales (0.9% est.; prev. -4.6%) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5600.45, 5563.85, and 5509.26.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5627.70, 5654.53, and 5674.76.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5689.50, the high at 8:45 AM, and 5657.50, the low at 3:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5758.25, and the index closed at 5712.20 – a spread of about +46.00 points; the futures closed at 5759.50; the fair value is -1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were mixed – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -6.00, Dow up by +38 and NASDAQ down by -44.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed. Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai, and Singapore closed up; Tokyo, Sydney, and Seoul closed down.
• European markets are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are mixed.
  • Soft commodities are mainly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.357, up +4.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.703%, up +7.0 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.031%, up +4.0 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.326 up from 0.324.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.346, down from 0.318.
• VIX
  • At 18.58 @ 9:00 AM; up from the last close; above the 5-day SMA.
  • Recent high = 29.57 on March 11; low = 17.67 on February 27.
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly lower on Wednesday, March 26 in mainly higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average closed higher in higher volume. The European markets closed mainly up but the Asian markets closed lower. The US indices opened flat and then mostly traded down for the rest of the day.

The dollar index and the energy futures closed up; the metals – industrial and precious – closed mixed; and the soft commodities closed mainly lower. The US Treasuries yields were up, and the bonds were down. The S&P sectors closed mixed–six down and five down.

From Briefing.com

The equity market closed with losses in the major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.0%.

Today’s price action led the S&P 500 back below its 200-day moving average (5,756) and led the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which turned positive on the year in yesterday’s advance, back into the red for 2025. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) closed 3.3% lower than yesterday. The selling interest contributed to the underperformance of the S&P 500 information technology sector, which was the worst performers by a wide margin. The communication services (-2.0%) and consumer discretionary (-1.7%) sectors were the next worst performers.

The defensive-oriented consumer staples (+1.4%) and utilities (+0.7%) sectors were the top gainers, reflecting a more risk-off tone in today’s trade.

The 10-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 4.34% and the 2-yr yield settled one basis point higher at 4.01%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.2% YTD
• S&P 500: -2.9% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -4.2% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -7.3% YTD
• Russell 2000: -7.0% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -2.0%; Prior -6.2%
• February Durable Orders 0.9% (Briefing.com consensus -1.2%); Prior was revised to 3.3% from 3.1%, February Durable Goods – ex transportation 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.0%

The post Morning Notes – Thursday, March 27, 2025 appeared first on Market Remarks.

• S&P Futures are a little higher. Moving within a range since 9:45 AM on Tuesday between 5689.50 and 5650.75 ahead of the FOMC statement and press conference at 2:30 PM.
• Odds are for a sideways day until 2:00 PM. The volatility will increase after that. Watch for a break above 5689.50 and a break below 5650.50.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Federal Funds Rate (4.50% est.; prev. 4.50%) at 2:00 PM.
  • FOMC Economic Projections at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Statement at 2:00 PM
  • FOMC Press Conference at 2:30 PM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5600.45, 5563.85, and 5509.26.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5627.70, 5654.53, and 5674.76.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5689.50, the high at 8:45 AM, and 5657.50, the low at 3:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5672.00, and the index closed at 5614.66 – a spread of about +57.25 points; the futures closed at 5670.75; the fair value is +1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were high – at 8:30 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +7.75, Dow by +20 and NASDAQ by +49.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed. Shanghai, Tokyo, and Sydney closed down; Hong Kong, Mumbai, Seoul and Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mainly lower–France and Italy are up.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mainly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.290, up +4.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.586%, up +4.7 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.048%, up +4.3 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.242, up from 0.243.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.296, down from 0.291.
• VIX
  • At 21.46 @ 7:45 AM; down from the last close; below the 5-day SMA.
  • Recent high = 29.57 on March 11; low = 17.67 on February 27.
  • Sentiment: Risk-On-Neutral

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Tuesday, March 18 in mixed volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 traded in higher volume. The markets in Europe and Asia also closed higher. The US indices opened down and then declined more in the first half hour of trading before moving sideways for the rest of the day.

The dollar index closed down; the energy and the industrial metal futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed up; and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All but two S&P sectors–Energy and Healthcare–closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market closed with losses across the board. The major indices settled off session lows with declines ranging from 0.6% to 1.7%.

The downside move follows two consecutive winning sessions for the the S&P 500 (-1.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-1.7%) and the gains haven’t been fully erased. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are still 1.7% and 1.2% higher, respectively, than Thursday’s close.

Treasuries are seen as a safe-haven during geopolitical unrest, yet the 10-yr yield, which dropped three basis points to 4.28%, and the 2-yr yield, which dropped one basis point to 4.04%, made modest moves.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.7% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -5.6% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -9.4% YTD
• Russell 2000: -8.1% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• February Housing Starts 1.501 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.385 mln); Prior was revised to 1.350 mln from 1.366 mln, February Building Permits 1.456 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.450 mln); Prior was revised to 1.473 mln from 1.483 mln
• February Export Prices 0.1%; Prior 1.3%
• February Export Prices ex-ag. 0.1%; Prior 1.5%
• February Import Prices 0.4%; Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%
• February Import Prices ex-oil 0.3%; Prior 0.1%
• February Industrial Production 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.5%, February Capacity Utilization 78.2% (Briefing.com consensus 77.7%); Prior was revised to 77.7% from 77.8%

The post Morning Notes – Wednesday, March 19, 2025 appeared first on Market Remarks.

• S&P Futures are lower. Breaking below a range between 5724.00 and 5705.00.
• Odds are for a down day with elevated volatility and a good chance of moving sideways from the pre-open level around 5710.00.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • Building Permits (1.46M vs. 1.45M est.; prev. 1.47M) at 8:30 AM.
  • Housing Starts (1.50M vs. 1.38M est.; prev. 1.35M) at 8:30 AM.
  • Import Prices (0.4% vs. -0.1% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Capacity Utilization (78.2% vs. 77.8% est.; prev. 77.7%) at 9:15 AM.
  • Industrial Production (0.7% vs. 0.2% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 9:15 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5586.68, 5546/09, and 5528.88.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5610.94, 5626.91, and 5642.19.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5609.75, the high at 6:15 AM, and 5559.25, the low at 4:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (June 2025) closed at 5732.75, and the index closed at 5675.12 – a spread of about +57.75 points; the futures closed at 5731.25; the fair value is +1.50.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 9:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -29.00, Dow by -149 and NASDAQ by -145.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed higher.
• European markets are higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are lower.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mainly higher.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.307, up +14.8 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.591%, up +13.9 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 4.057%, up +9.9 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.250, up from 0.201.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.284, down from 0.293.
• VIX
  • At 20.91 @ 8:15 AM; up from the last close; below the 5-day SMA.
  • Recent high = 29.57 on March 11; low = 17.67 on February 27.
  • Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed higher on Monday, March 17 in lower volume. The markets in Europe and Asia also closed higher. The US indices opened flat and then after a brief decline drifted higher for the rest of the day.

The dollar index closed down; the energy and the precious metal futures closed mixed; the industrial metals closed up; and the soft commodities closed mainly higher. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All S&P sectors closed up.

From Briefing.com

Today’s trade featured a positive bias through the entire session, reflecting an ongoing buy-the-dip mentality after the S&P 500 entered correction territory last week. Losses in the mega cap space limited index performance in the early going, but market breadth reflected more buying interest under the index surface. Advancers had a 4-to-1 lead over decliners at the NYSE and a 5-to-2 lead at the Nasdaq.

The 10-yr yield settled the session unchanged from Friday at 4.31% and the 2-yr yield settled three basis points higher at 4.05%.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.7% YTD
• S&P 500: -3.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -4.8% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -7.8%
• Russell 2000: -7.3% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Retail sales increased 0.2% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%) following a downwardly revised 1.2% decline (from -0.9%) in January. Excluding autos, retail sales were up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) following a 0.6% decline (from -0.4%) in January.
• The New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Survey for March showed the General Business Conditions Index declining to -20.0 in March from 5.7 in February. A number below 0.0 denotes a contraction in business activity in the New York Fed region. The Prices Paid Index rose five points to 44.9, its highest level in more than two years, while the Prices Received Index jumped three points to 22.4, hitting its highest level since May 2023.
• January Business Inventories increased 0.3%, as expected, following a 0.2% decline in December.
• The March NAHB Housing Market Index dropped to 39 (Briefing.com consensus 43) from 42 in February

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• S&P Futures are little changed after rising following the PPI report at 8:30 AM. They were down more than 25 points before the report.
• Odds are for a sideways to down day with elevated volatility. The critical resistance level is 5609.75, and the critical support level is 5559.25.
• The notable economic data due during the day:
  • PPI m/m (0.0% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Core PPI m/m (-0.1% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.3%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Unemployment Claims (220K vs. 22gK est.; prev. 222K) at 8:30 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5586.68, 5546/09, and 5528.88.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5610.94, 5626.91, and 5642.19.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5609.75, the high at 6:15 AM, and 5559.25, the low at 4:15 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Wednesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5602.75, and the index closed at 5599.30 – a spread of about +2.50 points; the futures closed at 5604.75; the fair value is -2.00.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were lower – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were down by -26.75, Dow by -150 and NASDAQ by -123.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mainly lower – Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mainly lower – Spain is higher.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mixed.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.315, up +5.2 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.633%, up +11.9 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.991%, down -9.1 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.324, up from 0.181.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.318, up from 0.251.
• VIX
  • At 24.70 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 29.56 on March 10; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Off

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mixed on Wednesday, March 12 in lower volume. Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, and NYSE Composite closed lower. The market opened flat to up. It first drifted lower and then drifted higher.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the metals–precious and industrials–closed up; and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were up, and the bonds were down. The S&P sectors closed mixed–five up and six down.

From Briefing.com

The S&P 500 (+0.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%) closed higher, propelled by buy-the-dip interest in the mega cap space.

The Treasury market also had a muted response to the data. The 10-yr yield rose three basis points to 4.32% and the 2-yr yield rose five basis points to 3.99%. On a related note, today’s $39 billion 10-yr note reopening received solid demand.

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.5% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -6.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -9.5%
• Russell 2000: -9.5% YTD

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 11.2%; Prior 20.4%
• February CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.5%, February Core CPI 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%
• The Treasury Budget for February showed a deficit of $307.0 billion compared to a deficit of $296.3 billion in the same period a year ago. The February deficit resulted from outlays ($603.4 billion) exceeding receipts ($296.4 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the February deficit cannot be compared to the January deficit of $128.6 billion.

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• S&P Futures are higher. They have been moving higher since 3:00 AM after a sideways move. They are up more than 100 points since the start of the European session.
• The futures shot up following the CPI report at 8:30 AM.
• Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. The critical support levels are 5625.25, 5608.25, and 5577.50.
• The notable economic data due during the day.
  • CPI m/m (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.5%) at 8:30 AM.
  • Core CPI m/m (0.2% vs. 0.3% est.; prev. 0.4%) at 8:30 AM.
  • CPI y/y (2.8% vs. 2.9% est.; prev. 3.0%) at 8:30 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5607.61, 5581.55, and 5541.45.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5636.30, 5658.88, and 5673.95.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5627.00, the high at 7:30 AM, and 5577.00, the low at 3:00 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Tuesday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5575.75, and the index closed at 5572.07 – a spread of about +3.75 points; the futures closed at 5577.00; the fair value is -1.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 8:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +40.75, Dow by +215 and NASDAQ by +168.75.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mixed: Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney, and Mumbai closed down; Tokyo, Seoul, and Singapore closed up.
• European markets are mainly higher – Spain is lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are higher.
  • Industrial metals are higher.
  • Soft commodities are mainly lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.285, down -1.6 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.599%, up +3.8 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.951%, down -14.5 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.334, up from 0.205.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.314, up from 0.260.
• VIX
  • At 26.02 @ 8:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 29.56 on March 10; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed mainly lower on Tuesday, March 11 in mixed volume. Russell 2000 traded higher in higher volume. Dow Jones Transportation Average also trade in higher volume. The trading was volatile. The market opened flat and then moved down until 1:30 PM before recovering by the close.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed up; the industrial metals closed mainly up; and the soft commodities closed mainly down. The US Treasuries yields were up, and the bonds were down. All S&P sectors closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market logged declines, again. The market has been in a steady downtrend as trade war tensions intensify and growth concerns increase. The former was relevant today after President Trump announced that the US will impose a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports, starting Wednesday, instead of the originally proposed 25%.

Reviewing today’s economic data:

• February NFIB Small Business Optimism 100.7; Prior 102.8
• January JOLTS – Job Openings 7.740 mln; Prior was revised to 7.508 mln from 7.600 mln

The post Morning Notes – Wednesday, March 12, 2025 appeared first on Market Remarks.

• S&P Futures are higher. They are moving higher after breaking below the NYSE session low in the Asian session. Up more than 90 points from the lows of 5558.00 at 9:00 PM.
• Odds are for an up day with elevated volatility. The critical support levels are 5627.50, 5615.50, and 5584.50.
• The notable economic data due during the day.
  • NFIB Small Business Index (100.7 vs. 100.9 est.; prev. 102.8) at 6:00 AM.
  • JOLTS Job Openings (7.65M est.; prev. 7.60M) at 10:00 AM.

Key Levels:

• Critical support levels for the S&P 500 are 5600.12, 5564,02, and 5535.50.
• Critical resistance levels for the S&P 500 are 5658.88, 5673.95, and 5705.37.
• The key levels for E-mini futures are 5682.00, the high at 11:30 AM on Monday, and 5615.50, the low at 3:30 AM.

Pre-Open

• On Monday at 4:00 PM, S&P futures (March 2025) closed at 5623.00, and the index closed at 5614.56 – a spread of about +8.50 points; the futures closed at 5620.75; the fair value is +2.25.
• Pre-NYSE session open, futures were higher – at 7:00 AM, the S&P 500 futures were up by +16.00, Dow by +107 and NASDAQ by +82.25.

Markets Around the World

• Markets in the East closed mainly lower – Shanghai closed up.
• European markets are mixed – Germany, France. and Italy are higher; the U.K., Spain, Switzerland and STOXX 600 are lower.
• Currencies (Compared to two weeks ago):

• Commodities (Compared to two weeks ago):
  • Energy futures are mixed.
  • Precious metals are lower.
  • Industrial metals are mainly lower.
  • Soft commodities are lower.
• Treasuries (Compared to two weeks ago)
  • The 10-year yield closed at 4.216, down -19.4 basis points from two weeks ago.
  • The 30-year is at 4.544%, down -11.4 basis points.
  • The 2-year yield is at 3.894%, down -29.1 basis points.
  • The 10-Year-&-2-Year spread is at 0.322, up from 0.225.
  • The 30-Year-&-10-Year spread is at 0.328, up from 0.248.
• VIX
  • At 27.37 @ 7:00 AM; down from the last close; above the 5-day SMA
  • Recent high = 29.56 on March 10; low = 17.67 on February 27; Sentiment: Risk-Neutral-On

The trend and patterns in various time frames for the S&P 500:

Previous Session

Major U.S. indices closed lower on Monday, March 10 in mainly higher volume. Russell 2000 traded in lower volume. The trading was volatile. The market opened gapped down from previous open and then moved sharply down until 3:00 PM before recovering a little by the close.

The dollar index closed up; the energy futures closed mixed; the precious metals closed down; and the industrials and the soft commodities closed mixed. The US Treasuries yields were down, and the bonds were up. All but two S&P sectors–Energy and Utilities–closed down.

From Briefing.com

The stock market started the new week with sharp declines after Friday’s rebound. Technical factors were in play as the Nasdaq Composite (-4.0%) moved further into correction territory (i.e. a 10% decline from its high) and the S&P 500 (-2.7%) dropped below its 200-day moving average (5,734) again. It’s the first time the index closed below that key level since November 2023, marking a 8.7% decline from its all-time high.

Treasuries saw some safe-haven buying in another manifestation of growth concerns. The 10-yr yield fell ten basis points to 4.21% and the 2-yr yield fell ten basis points to 3.90%. The rally in the Treasury market resulted in the lowest settlement for the 2-yr yield since early October while the 10-yr yield returned back below its 200-day moving average (4.234%).

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.5% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.5% YTD
• S&P Midcap 400: -6.4% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -9.5%
• Russell 2000: -9.5% YTD

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