Master Class Boxing Blog

Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2023-04-21T15:47:00.001-04:00

Fight: Gervonta Davis (28-0, 26 KOs) vs. Ryan Garcia (23-0, 19 KOs)

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: April 22, 2023
Weight class: Super lightweight (catchweight of 136 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: Showtim PPV/DAZN PPV
Line (Bovada): Davis: -225, Garcia: +185 (as of 4/21/23)
Purse: Davis: $ million, Garcia: $ million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Davis: #2 ranked lightweight, Garcia: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Davis: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

In a lot of ways, I see the value in taking Ryan Garcia to win this fight as a 2-1 underdog (or even as high as an 8-1 underdog if betting him to win by decision). At the end of the day, Garcia is a highly-accomplished, undefeated fighter with an inordinate amount of self-confidence. (As boxing fans know, confidence and self-belief goes a long, long way in this sport - perhaps more so than any other sport.) Garcia also happens to be the bigger, faster, and taller fighter, and will enter Saturday's fight with a slight - but still very notable - 2.5" reach advantage.

Garcia has concussive power with lighting-quick hands that - similar to Manny Pacquiao in his heydey - actually amplify the effect of his power. (Obviously not saying Garcia is as great as the Filipino legend, just comparing the speed and its effect on their punching power.) At only 24 years old, he's even the younger fighter in this matchup... many still look at Gervonta as a very young fighter despite the fact that he's actually fast approaching his 30s (Gervonta turns 29 later this year).

Saturday's fight is likely the first fight in Gervonta's professional career where he'll face a fighter who has quicker hands, faster reflexes, and a longer reach than he does. Boxing observers might be underestimating - perhaps severely - how difficult it might be for Gervonta to close distance and land punches effectively given Ryan's advantages here. And given Gervonta's propensity for starting slow in fights, he might dig himself into a hole in the early rounds that might be too difficult to come back from if Ryan can manage distance well enough and use his advantages in length and quickness to evade Gervonta's pressure in the mid to late rounds.

We've already seen several upsets of undefeated, highly-regarded fighters in just the past couple of months (Rey Vargas, Sebastian Fundora, and Joe Joyce perhaps the most notable examples). Garcia defeating Gervonta Davis would certainly be the most high-profile upset of them all, though Garcia is actually considered less of an underdog than any of the fighters who beat the aforementioned Vargas (O'Shaquie Foster at +225), Fundora (Brian Mendoza at +620), or Joyce (Zhilei Zhang at +560) were in the opening betting lines for those fights. At nearly +200 to win, or even +800 by decision, betting a small amount on Ryan Garcia to win is intriguing and may have some value.

But I really like Gervonta in this matchup. I think his advantages in all-around skill, ring IQ, and big fight experience will shine through on Saturday night. Over the past several years, including recent fights, Gervonta in my opinion has proven himself to be a more complete, more technically-skilled boxer than Ryan. Now I'd rate Gervonta's reflexes - and arguably even his power - as not quite as good as Ryan's. But Tank does have trigger-quick, concussive power of his own that I think will ultimately prove to be much more effective than Ryan's down the stretch.

For all the hype and attention surrounding Gervonta's knockout power and aggression, Gervonta is by nature a patient, thinking fighter with vastly underrated ring IQ. In consistency with his cautiously aggressive style, Gervonta will likely place much higher priority than the sometimes reckless Ryan - who's defensive deficiencies (most notably his tendency of fighting in a tall, upright stance with his chin up) are much more glaring - on responsible defense and evading potential fight-ending counters.

Ryan has in multiple fights also shown a questionable chin - most notably getting knocked down in the 2nd round of his January 2021 TKO victory vs. Luke Campbell. (Luke Campbell was a solid, respected fighter, though was never a fighter known for his punching power.) I suspect Gervonta, on the other hand, may prove to have a granite chin. (The fact that Gervonta has never even come close to getting knocked down or knocked out in his pro career and even the structure and density of Gervonta's larger-than-normal sized head is evidence of this.)

Gervonta is a smart, fundamentally sound fighter who's consistently shown the ability to make adjustments and apply pressure with increasing efficiency as fights get into the middle and later rounds. Gervonta actually throws the fewest punches per round of any CompuBox-tracked fighter but is #1 amongst all CompuBox-tracked fighters in the percentage of times (47.6%) he lands power punches... a testament to his cautiously aggressive -yet highly accurate - style.

Garcia seems supremely confident heading into Saturday's matchup, but he's still very young and will be headlining a PPV even for the first time in his career. Gervonta is equally confident, but has much more experience on this stage; Saturday's fight will be his 6th consecutive fight as the A-side for a PPV event.

As quick-tempered and emotional as Gervonta sometimes is outside of the ring, he's consistently shown Mayweather-esque poise inside of it, including the ability to block out whatever issues/troubles he might have going on in his personal life. I think Gervonta's poise and patient fighting style will get rewarded when Garcia's defensive deficiencies (upright chin, tendency to drop hands and predictably pull back in a straight line when moving out of the pocket, below average foot positioning, etc.) catch up to him in the mid to late rounds. Both fighters will land power punches - I just see Gervonta being able to handle Garcia's landed punches better due to having a better chin, more responsible defense, and previous experience in tough, big fights. Garcia is also at times reckless and overeager to land his power shots - which I think plays perfectly into the hands of a much more cautious fighter like Gervonta.

The clear play for me here is Gervonta Davis by TKO/KO/DQ at -150 or better (I bet Gervonta by TKO/KO/DQ at -132 odds). With that said - given the advantages I outlined earlier for Garcia - it may also be worth hedging this bet with Ryan Garcia to win by decision at +600 or better given how wide those odds are (though I personally won't be making this bet).

Definitely looking forward to attending this fight! Will likely be the most star-studded boxing event since the final boxing events involving Floyd Mayweather several years ago. The clash of styles, personalities, and even fan demographics here between the two fighters is fascinating so will be very curious to see how this all plays out. Good luck in however you decide to bet!

Prediction: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ

Recommended bet: Davis by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN 1 unit)

Canelo vs. Bivol: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2022-05-07T16:29:00.002-04:00

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) vs. Dmitry Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs)

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 7, 2022
Weight class: Light heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World light heavyweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Alvarez: -600, Bivol: +375 (5/7/22)
Purse: Alvarez: $15 million, Bivol: $2 million (base salary; Canelo will also earn 70 percent of PPV sales with a reported cap of $40 million, while Bivol will earn 30 percent of PPV sales)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Bivol: #2 ranked light heavyweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Bivol: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

So there's a lot of straightforward reasons to pick Canelo here. For a few years now, he's been considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world - a future first ballot hall-of-famer still in the prime of his career with a rare combination of sublime skill, power, and ring IQ. Not to mention one of the best chins and overall defensive abilities in boxing on top of that. As impressive as he's been since his only loss nearly a decade ago to Floyd Mayweather, Canelo is arguably still continuing to improve with each fight as he's moved up in weight. Canelo's confidence also seems to be at an all-time high, as evidenced in his recent stoppages of naturally bigger, more mobile, undefeated champions in Billy Jo Saunders and Caleb Plant who most - myself included - figured would at least be able to last the distance vs. a relatively flat-footed Canelo.

Canelo certainly also has an advantage in experience, having the best resume of any active fighter in boxing, having fought a who's who of elite fighters (across a wide variety of fighting styles) in his 60-fight career, and routinely fights on the biggest stage in boxing in front of massive crowds. Tonight he'll be facing a relatively inexperienced opponent in Bivol who has only 19 career fights and whose best win came in 2019 vs. current WBO light heavyweight champion Joe Smith Jr. - a solid but still somewhat raw and undisciplined fighter that very few if any would consider one of the elite fighters in the sport.

Canelo's versatility and savvy both offensively and defensively might be too much for a relatively straightforward, primarily 1-2 puncher in Bivol who seems to lack true knockout power vs. the best fighters in his weight class, with his last six fights at light heavyweight having gone to decision without Bivol scoring even a single knockdown.

Even if this fight turns out to be competitive and close, it's difficult to imagine Bivol getting a decision given Canelo's long and notorious track record of getting the benefit of the doubt on judges' scorecards. On Cinco de Mayo weekend, the uber-popular Mexican boxing superstar will almost certainlybe the beneficiary of favorable scoring vs. atherelatively unknown, unheralded Russian fighter - especially given the current anti-Russian social and political climate. Bivol is undefeated and been a champion at 175 lbs for five years but he's a nearly 4-1 underdog for good reasons. There's seemingly too much Bivol might have to overcome - both inside and outside the ring - to upset the A-side of this matchup... who happens to be boxing's #1 cash cow and one of the biggest draws in all of sports.

Albeit for relatively small wagers, I've been (incorrectly) betting against Canelo for some time now. Maybe (or probably) I'm the sucker when it comes to odds against Canelo but I think this is arguably the strongest opportunity to bet against Canelo since his fight vs. Mayweather back in 2013. As quite possibly the best light heavyweight boxer in the world, Bivol is being severely underrated in this matchup. Yes, he's inexperienced at the elite level, but he's undefeated in his career and made fights vs. very solid opponents such as Joe Smith, Isaac Chilemba, Jean Pascal, and Sullivan Barrera look easy, with multiple judges in each of those fights either scoring the fight a shutout or giving Bivol's opponent only one round for the entire fight. While Bivol's last six fights have gone to decision, he stopped 11 out of the first 13 opponents he faced in his career, which is evidence that Canelo will have to respect his power somewhat.

As great as Canelo is - I think there's a chance he might be biting off more than he can chew at 175 lbs. Canelo has fought only one other time at light heavyweight, in November 2019 when he fought a washed, past-prime Sergei Kovalev in a fight that was very competitive until Canelo scored an 11th round KO stoppage. (I had Kovalev up two points at the time of stoppage; one of the official judges had it a draw.) Bivol, unlike Kovalev was when he fought Canelo, is still in his prime, undefeated, adept at boxing on his feet, and I think overall will have much more success fighting from distance behind his power jab than Kovalev, Saunders, and Plant did to varying extends when they fought Canelo.

Like Canelo, Bivol is an elitely-skilled, highly efficient puncher who is also defensively responsible and excellent at managing distance. Per CompuBox, Bivol is second only to long-time Canelo rival Gennady Golovkin in total number of jabs landed per round amongst all active boxers. (Golovkin's jab was effective vs. Canelo in both fights he had against the Mexican superstar; I think a bigger, more mobile Bivol can be comparably effective with his jab even if the jab doesn't have as much power behind it as Golovkin's.) Per CompuBox, Bivol is also second (to current WBO middlewight champion Demetrius Andrade) amongst all active boxers in total number of punches landed on him per rounds, which is in large part a testament to how well Bivol manages distance behind his jab. Overall, Bivol leads all active boxers - including pound-for-pound level fighters like Canelo, Shakur Stevenson, and Vasiliy Lomachenko - in CompuBox plus/minus rating, a statistic frequently used to assess how dominant a fighter has been over his opposition. (Plus/minus rating is calculated as the difference in connect percentage between a fighter and his opponent and was a statistic Mayweather was notorious for consistently being the highest rated boxer for when he was active.)

If Bivol can effectively shut out bigger, stronger fighters who had reach advantage like Joe Smith behind his jab, I think we can expect him to be similarly effective in large stretches of the fight vs. a smaller fighter in Canelo vs. whom he has a slight 1.5" reach advantage.

All things considered, especially when considering his edge in experience, skill, and punching power - not to mention a favorable Cinco de Mayo environment where you can almost expect the judges to score this fight favorable for him - I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. But at 7-1, I like Bivol by decision as far and away the best value for this fight. For similar reasons, I also think a draw (20-1) is good value and think, no matter who wins, the fight is highly likely to go the distance (-200) given the elite defensive abilities of both fighters, neither of whom have ever even been knocked down in their career.

I'll be at the fight and definitely looking forward to this matchup. I think it'll be a better fight than most are thinking and we might be in for a big upset!!!

Prediction: Canelo by decision

Recommended bets: 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .5 unit)

2) Bivol to win by decision (bet to RISK .33 unit)

3) Fight to end in a draw (bet to RISK .25 unit)

Fury vs. Wilder III: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2021-10-09T13:47:00.001-04:00

Fight: Tyson Fury (30-0-1, 21 KOs) vs. Deontay Wilder (42-1-1, 41 KOs)

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: October 9, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Fury: -275, Wilder: +215 (10/9/21)
Purse: Fury: $6 million, Wilder: $4 million (base salary; Fury will be guaranteed at least $30 million, while Wilder will be guaranteed at least $20 million based upon the contracted 60/40 split for the 3rd fight, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Fury: Ring Magazine heavyweight champion, Wilder: #3 ranked heavyweight
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilder wins this fight. Fight fans talk all the time about "puncher's chance." Wilder might actually be the best example in the history of boxing of a fighter who always has a puncher's chance with his historically great punching power that I think gives him a legitimate shot to beat anyone put in front of him - including the objectively more skilled Fury who's arguably won as many as 17 of the 19 rounds they've fought in their two previous fights.

Wilder will be coming off the longest layoff of his career but Fury himself will be coming off his 2nd longest layoff - a nearly 20-month layoff during the latter part of which he caught COVID (reportedly suffering mild breathing and congestion issues as a result) and most recently had to also deal with the huge disappointment of losing a potentially massive payday in a future unification bout with Anthony Joshua is what would've been the biggest fight in the history of UK boxing. (Two weeks ago, the favored Joshua lost his WBA, IBF, and WBO heavyweight titles to undefeated Ukrainian Olexandr Usyk; a victory by Joshua vs. Usyk followed by a Fury win tonight would've set the stage for a Joshua/Fury matchup in 2022 for the undisputed heavyweight championship in which Fury would've been the favorite. Paydays were expected to approach $100 million for each fighter in that matchup.)

Will a fighter notorious for his unpredictability and at times (given his diagnosed bipolar disorder) lack of mental instability), coming off an extended layoff where he had to recover from COVID and experience the disappointment of losing a possible career-defining fight vs. Joshua be sufficiently motivated to beat a fighter he already feels he beat twice? (The first fight between Fury and Wilder in 2018 was officially scored a draw, though most felt Fury outboxed Wilder in that matchup.) Wilder comes into this fight seeking revenge for the embarrassing TKO loss in their February 2020 rematch - one gets the impression Wilder wants this more and has much more to lose career-wise than Fury in tonight's matchup. Despite the loss to Fury in their previous fight, Wilder seems extremely confident and determined to win - it wouldn't surprise me at all if he puts everything together and pulls off the stoppage... as he came within a fraction of a second of doing in the final round of their first fight.

But I think - as he's already demonstrated in the clear majority of the 19 rounds he's faced Wilder in their two previous fights - Fury's skills will be too much for Wilder to overcome. Since he beat Vladimir Klitschko in 2015, I've felt Fury is the best heavyweight of this generation (i.e., better than even prime Klitschko and the best heavyweight fighter since Lennox Lewis). Fury mostly outboxed Wilder in their first fight, then made adjustments to more effectively utilize his advantages in size and strength to completely dominate the slightly favored Wilder in last year's rematch. Wilder is renowned for his punching power, but not so much for his technical boxing skills or ability to make adjustments. Even with his new trainer, Malik Scott, I seriously doubt Wilder's ability to effectively make adjustments vs. a supremely-skilled heavyweight like Fury. Wilder failed to make adjustments in his previous fight vs. Fury (losing the first 6 rounds on 2 of the 3 judges' scorecards before getting stopped in the 7th) and even failed to make adjustments in his fight prior to that - his rematch vs. Luis Ortiz where he also arguably lost every round in that fight before stopping Ortiz in the 7th.

Wilder is a predictable, relatively basic boxer who had trouble landing punches on Fury in both previous fights, landing only 16.5% of his attempted punches in their first fight and a still very low 24.1% in their rematch where Fury fought more aggressively coming forward. Wilder's punch output has also (noticeably) declined in recent fights. There's nothing in Wilder's previous fights - in particular the rematches he's already had vs. Fury and Ortiz - that makes me think he can make the adjustments necessary to have more than a puncher's chance of beating Fury. Wilder's nature is to fight one way (behind the punching power in his right hand); at 35 years old and arguably a bit past his prime, that's highly unlikely to change in a way that will be effective vs. perhaps the best heavyweight fighter of this generation.

I think Fury, as he's indicated several times in recent pre-fight interviews, will be as aggressive and physical as he was in the last fight and aim for another early round stoppage of Wilder. Wilder, having full confidence in his own power and seeing how Fury bullied through his cautious approach in their rematch, will at some point in tonight's fight - probably early in the fight - feel he has no choice but to reciprocate Fury's aggression and come out swinging.

While Wilder will likely be more prepared for Fury's tactics this time around, I don't see this fight going the distance - I see a stoppage one way or the other in the early to middle rounds. Most likely, Fury will be able to - as he did in the last fight - use his superior size, jab, movement, and overall skill advantage to outphysical and outwit Wilder to earn another TKO/KO victory. Fury's increased aggression will of course leave him more susceptible to Wilder's power, so it's certainly well within the range of possibility it's Wilder who gets the stoppage this time around.

Given the pricing of Fury as a (roughly) -300 betting favorite, I feel the bet with the most value as of now is the under 7.5 rounds (which can currently be found around even money odds), with a smaller bet on Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (which can also be found at around even money odds) also being worthwhile. The main fight could certainly go either way but very much looking forward to the all-heavyweight PPV card tonight!

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Under 7.5 rounds (bet to WIN .5 unit) 2) Fury to win by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to WIN .25 unit)

Joshua vs. Usyk: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2021-09-23T16:03:00.002-04:00

Fight: Anthony Joshua (24-1, 22 KOs) vs. Oleksandr Usyk (18-0, 13 KOs)

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, United Kingdom
Date: September 25, 2021
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super, IBF, and WBO Heavyweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (Bovada): Joshua: -285, Usyk: +210 (9/23/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Joshua: #1 ranked heavyweight, Usyk: #4 ranked pound-for-pound, #10 ranked heavyweight
Style: Joshua: Orthodox, Usyk: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Anthony Joshua vs. Oleksandr Usyk will be the first major PPV fight of the fall in what is shaping up to be a pretty loaded final quarter of the 2021 boxing season (scheduled major championship fights include Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder III, Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos Jr., Jamel Herring vs. Shakur Stevenson, and Josh Taylor vs. Jack Catterall).

Joshua vs. Usyk is one of the better matchups that could've been made in boxing and is arguably the best heavyweight matchup we'll have this year. In Joshua, you have a unified heavyweight champion and former gold medalist who's right up there with Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez as the biggest draw in boxing. (While Canelo is a bigger draw in the United States and North America, Joshua might be a bigger draw in terms of worldwide support.) But this weekend, Joshua will face undefeated Ukrainian star Olexsandr Usyk, a former gold medalist himself who, after only 18 professional fights, is already considered one of the great cruiserweights in boxing history, having reigned as undisputed cruiserweight champion from July 2018 until March 2019 when he vacated his titles to move up to heavyweight. Usyk was the third cruiserweight in boxing history (Evander Holyfield, O'Neil Bell) to become undisputed champion in that weight class and the first cruiserweight in history to hold four major belts at once; for his efforts, Usyk was named 2018 Fighter of the Year by all the major boxing outlets.

Saturday's fight is a classic matchup between a big power puncher in Joshua with 22 knockouts in 25 career fights (88% KO percentage, with Joseph Parker being the only boxer Joshua's faced that he's never knocked down or stopped) and a slick, crafty master boxer in Usyk. In Usyk, Joshua is in with (perhaps by far) the most skilled fighter he's faced in his career, a fighter who also happens to be rated the #4 boxer in the world pound-for-pound by Ring Magazine. (Usyk will actually be the first pound-for-pound ranked boxer Joshua has fought in his career.)

If Joshua beats the undefeated, pound-for-pound #4-ranked Usyk, it would possibly become the best win on his resume; beating an undefeated, pound-for-pound rated fighter like Usyk would also create a strong argument that Joshua himself deserves pound-for-pound ranking consideration. A win would also set Joshua up as the A-side in a potential mega-fight in 2022 with the winner of next month's Fury vs. Wilder matchup.

If Usyk wins, he will be the unified heavyweight champion of the world and almost certainly (if he hasn't already)have stamped his ticket into the boxing hall-of-fame after only 19 professional fights. A win would potentially put Usyk in line for the winner of Fury vs. Wilder, where he can attempt to become the 1st boxer since Evander Holyfield (and 2nd overall in boxing history) to have been the undisputed champion at both cruiserweight and heavyweight during his career.

Prefight analysis

Despite being undersized at heavyweight, Usyk is more than a live dog in this matchup. Usyk is almost certainly the best boxer Joshua will have faced to date - an unbeaten, pound-for-pound ranked, likely future hall-of-famer with superior ring IQ, skills, footwork, and hand speed compared to the relatively basic, often flat-footed, and stiff Joshua.

Usyk isn't just a great boxer, he's potentially an all-time great boxer given what he's already accomplished thus far in his career. Typically a slow starter, Usyk is known for upping his punch rate and coming on in the mid/late rounds of fights; that combined with his elite footwork and ability to box well on the move should be at least somewhat effective in tiring Joshua, who is known for having stamina issues after the early rounds.

Usyk is a disciplined, composed fighter who I think could seize the moment in the biggest fight of his career and apply effective, fight-changing pressure on a fighter in Joshua who we've seen get tense and stiffen up in the middle rounds of not only his loss to Andy Ruiz in June of 2019, but also his stoppage victory vs. Vladimir Klitschko where he was knocked down and nearly stopped in the middle rounds. The longer this fight goes, the more the fight becomes dependent on ring IQ and skill advantage; in my opinion Usyk is decisively superior in both areas, which gives him a very real shot at an upset this weekend.

With all that said, I think Joshua's advantages in size, reach, and punching power will be too much for the recently converted cruiserweight to overcome in this matchup. While immensely talented and skilled, Usyk doesn't have heavyweight size or punching power, and I think also won't have the punch activity at heavyweight to be consistently effective vs. Joshua. Joshua not only has the size and power, he'll also enter the ring with a notable 4" reach advantage, which he'll be able to use to work behind his highly effective power jab all night, as he did in his unanimous decision rematch victory vs. Ruiz in December of 2019. Usyk is certainly elusive enough to evade Joshua's attack in most spots, but - as an undersized opponent - he'll likely have to be cautious and respect Joshua's power for all 12 rounds. Note that Usyk even had difficulty at times in his most recent fight with the size and power of heavyweight contender Derek Chisora, who is not as big and - with a career 53% KO percentage - doesn't have nearly the punching power of Joshua. (Usyk beat Chisora by unanimous decision but only won by two points on 2 out of 3 judges' scorecards.)

Joshua doesn't move as well as Usyk, but is mobile enough to box at a safe distance from Usyk's attack given his reach advantage. Despite Joshua's questionable chin, Usyk likely doesn't have the punching power at heavyweight to give Joshua problems, even if he is able to close the distance.

Usyk's punch activity has noticeably declined in the two fights he's had since moving up to heavyweight; given that he'll likely have to be even more cautious than he's been in his two previous fights facing a power puncher like Joshua, I highly doubt we'll see as many punches out of Usyk on Saturday that we became accustomed to seeing during his quick ascent to the top of the cruiserweight division. (Trading punches with Joshua I think will be a quick recipe for Usyk getting stopped and I suspect Usyk is aware of that.)

While Usyk is experienced, having consistently fought tough competition throughout his short but accomplished 18-fight career, Saturday's fight will be just his 3rd fight at heavyweight. Despite clearly winning both of his previous fights at heavyweight, Usyk didn't look terribly impressive in either fight as the size of both of his previous heavyweight opponents (Chazz Witherspoon, who fought Usyk on only 4 days notice after the previously scheduled opponent failed a drug test, and Chisora, who is arguably not even a top 10 heavyweight), seemed to stymie some of Usyk's punch activity and overall effective aggression in spots.

Another hugely significant obstacle for Usyk is the fact that the fight is taking in Joshua's home country (United Kingdom), and in an area of London not too far from the town where Joshua was born and raised. As arguably the single biggest draw in boxing, Joshua is obviously the A-side in this promotion, and just within the past couple of days signed a lifetime contract with famed boxing promoter Eddie Hearn and his Matchroom Sport promotions company. Saturday's fight will take place in a 60,000+ capacity soccer stadium in London, where at least 90% of the fans in attendance will be raucously supporting Joshua. Given the boxing politics typically involved in protecting boxers that generate enormous sums of revenue and the home crowd advantage that Joshua will enjoy, it's tough to envision a case where any reasonably close fight here will be scored for Usyk. Usyk would likely have to completely dominate the fight over several rounds or knock Joshua out to get the victoy - which seems unlikely given the size discrepancy and Usyk's lack of knockout power.

But I do think Usyk, who I anticipate will be more cautious than usual in this matchup, possesses the footwork and savvy to last 12 rounds vs. Joshua. So I see Joshua by decision as the best bet, though I wouldn't be surprised if Joshua's power proves to be a bit too much for Usyk, with Joshua possibly getting the stoppage in the later rounds.

But very much looking forward to this fight - I've got to get out to one of these big fights in the UK someday!!!

Prediction: Joshua to win

Recommended bet: Joshua by decision (RISK .5 unit)

Pacquiao vs. Ugas: Why You Should Watch This Fight

2021-08-21T09:55:00.003-04:00

Fight: Manny Pacquiao (62-7-2, 39 KOs) vs. Yordenis Ugas (26-4, 12 KOs)

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: August 21, 2021
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Welterweight title
TV/Stream: FOX PPV
Line (Bovada): Pacquiao: -400, Ugas: +300 (8/21/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Pacquiao: #3 ranked welterweight, Ugas: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Pacquiao: Southpaw, Ugas: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Manny Pacquiao vs. Errol Spence was set to be the biggest fight of the summer - an 8-division champion in Pacquiao universally recognized as one of the great pound-for-pound boxers of all-time vs. an undefeated, two-belt welterweight champion in Spence, considered arguably the best welterweight in the world and one of the top 5-6 boxers pound-for-pound in the world today. That was until Spence - only 10 days prior to the fight - had to abruptly pull out of the match after doctors uncovered a retinal tear in his left eye.

Spence was replaced by Cuban boxer Yordenis Ugas, who was elevated from WBA Regular to WBA Super welterwieght champion this past January after Pacquiao was stripped of his title due to inactivity. (Pacquiao had won that WBA Super welterweight belt in his most recent fight way back in April 2019, a split decision vs. then-undefeated champion Keith Thurman.)

Given the ill-timed postponements of several highly-anticipated pay-per-view championship fights in recent weeks (Canelo Alvarez vs. Caleb Plant, Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder, Teofimo Lopez vs. George Kambosos as some examples), Pacquiao vs. Ugas has emerged as possibly still the biggest, most intriguing matchup of the summer. The fight pits an mega-popular legend in Pacquiao - the Boxing Writer's Association of America's Fighter of the Decade for the 2000s, WBC and WBO's Fighter of the Decade for the 2010s, and the only fighter in boxing history to hold world championships across 4 decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s) - vs. a very solid but unheralded Cuban fighter in Ugas in what will be by far the biggest fight in Ugas's career. Ugas, a bronze medalist for Cuba during the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, sports an unremarkable 26-4 record as a pro but has won 11 of his last 12 fights since 2014 - with the lone loss being a controversial split decision loss to then WBC welterweight champion Shawn Porter. (I personally scored that fight a draw.)

Pacquiao is 42 years old (turns 43 in December) and - having not fought in over 2 years - is coming off by far the longest layoff of his professional career. Pacquiao's two previous longest layoffs were the 12-month layoff he took after his controversial unanimous decision loss to Jeff Horn in Australia and the 11.5-month layoff he took after getting knocked out by Juan Manuel Marquez. If Pacquiao wins Saturday night's fight he regains the WBA Super welterweight belt that was stripped from him due to inactivity, and sets himself up for a possible superfight with Spence in 2022 after Spence recovers from his eye injury (or even a possible superfight with undefeated WBO welterweight champion Terence Crawford, who Pacquiao came extremely close to agreeing to terms with for a fight in the Middle East this summer, if Spence doesn't recover in time).

If Ugas wins, it would be the biggest win in the storied history of Cuban boxing (even if Cuba doesn't recognize the accomplishments of defected athletes such as Ugas) and sets him up with a possible unification fight with Spence in early 2022.

Pacquiao vs. Ugas will be the first pay-per-view event hosted by Fox since Fox co-hosted the Wilder/Fury II boxing event with ESPN back in 2020.

Canelo vs. Saunders: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2021-05-07T17:58:00.006-04:00

Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (55-1-2 37 KOs) vs. Billy Jo Saunders (30-0, 14 KOs)

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: May 8, 2021
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World, WBA World, and WBO World Super Middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Alvarez: -725, Saunders: +550 (5/7/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine super middleweight champion, Saunders: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvaraez: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw

Why you should watch this fight

Canelo vs. Billie Joe Saunders will be the biggest fight of the year to date in front of what is widely anticipated to be a full-capacity crowd of well over 60,000 at AT&T Stadium in the Dallas, TX area - a crowd that would be the largest in the United States to attend a sporting event since COVID-mandated capacity limitations on crowds began in early 2020. Canelo vs Saunders is the biggest boxing event currently on the boxing calendar; at over 60,000 tickets already sold, the fight has already amassed sales that exceed the previous record for a Canelo boxing event - 51,420 for Canelo's 2016 WBO junior middleweight title fight vs. then undefeated UK champion Liam Smith.

Canelo - considered by many to be the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport and biggest boxing star on the planet - is looking to unify his WBC and WBA super middleweight titles vs. undefeated WBO super middleweight champion Billie Joe Saunders in what could be his toughest fight since his rematch with then #1 pound-for-pound and undefeated Gennady Golovkin in 2018. Saunders is a slick, elusive southpaw who, while oft-criticized for fighting down to his level of opponents, could give the heavy betting favorite Canelo one of the toughest matchups of his certain future first ballot hall-of-fame career. As a junior middleweight (154 lbs), Canelo had trouble with other elite, mobile southpaws with a stiff jab - then undefeated WBA super middleweight champion Austin Trout in 2013 and Erislandy Lara in 2014 in fights many thought Trout and Lara won. Saunders provides Canelo's first test vs. a mobile, defensively responsible southpaw since those fights. vs. Trout and Lara (and provides that test as a bigger man two weight classes higher than those previous fights at 154 lbs).

Saunders comes into Saturday night's fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his career in what will be by far the biggest fight of his career. Will he rise to the occasion (as he's actually been prone to do when facing his toughest opponents) or will we see yet another flat performance (as we've actually seen more often than not vs. even B- and C-level opponents)?

The winner of Saturday night's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and WBO super middleweight champion of the world and is set up nicely to challenge undefeated IBF super middleweight champion Caleb Plant later this year to become the first undisputed super middleweight champion in boxing history and first undisputed boxing champion at any weight since Terence Crawford became undisputed light welterweight (140 lbs) champion back in 2017.

Prefight Analysis

Seems like nearly all the signs in this matchup point to an easy victory for Canelo.

Still firmly in the prime of his career, Canelo is brimming with confidence as the #1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, while Saunders is looking to finally attain the respect that's seemingly eluded him his entire career of being one of the elite boxers in the world.

Amazingly, Canelo seems even now to still be improving after each and every fight, while Saunders has slid by with lackluster performances in the majority of his recent fights.

Outside of future first ballot hall-of-famer and all-time great Manny Pacquiao, Canelo has the most impressive resume of any active boxer; Saunders' resume, on the other hand, is littered with domestic British-level contenders and other B- and C-level fighters. (Saunders arguably doesn't have a single A-level fighter on his resume.)

Canelo is the "A" side of this matchup, perhaps the biggest draw in the sport (and biggest draw of the post-Mayweather/Pacquiao generation) - a wildly popular fighter with a fan-friendly style facing a relatively unpopular fighter in Saunders notorious for controversial, distasteful behavior outside the ring and uninspired, snoozer performances inside.

Canelo will be fighting in front of a full-capacity crowd in Dallas, Texas where the overwhelming majority of the crowd will be there to root him on. Texas also happens to be a state notorious for partial scorecards in favor of the "A" side fighter. (Though Canelo has seemingly been the beneficiary of favorable judging regardless of fight location.)

And of course, Canelo just appears to be the more skilled, experienced, dedicated fighter in this matchup with a huge advantage in punching power. Canelo is expected by most boxing pundits to win this fight and I think he probably does get the win.

But, as a +550 underdog (translating to being given by oddsmakers just a 15.4% chance to win this fight), I see a little bit of value in taking Saunders to win. Although Saunders' resume is a bit lacking, he is an undefeated, two-division world champion with elite skills (particularly on the defensive end), great foot and upper body movement, and a consistently effective jab. As much as Canelo has improved in recent years, he hasn't fought a slick, elusive southpaw who can move and jab like Saunders since his close (and for some controversial) decision losses to Lara and Trout several years ago.

Canelo will always be a somewhat flat-footed fighter, which I think Saunders has the skill to exploit for large stretches of Saturday's fight with constant, responsible movement and timely counterpunching from his southpaw stance.

Note that, while he was certainly in trouble in multiple spots late in the fight, Saunders' countryman Callum Smith was able to last the distance just a few months ago in a unanimous decision loss to Canelo. Saunders doesn't have the size or punching power of Smith, but he is much better defensively - including being much more elusive and trickier than the often predictable and straightforward Smith.

Even with his fast hand speed and elite counterpunching ability, I think the slower-footed Canelo will have trouble - particularly in the early rounds of the fight - finding and adjusting to Saunders' movement and overall deceptive, awkward style. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Saunders outbox Canelo in several rounds and fully expect Saunders - who's never been knocked out or even knocked down in his professional career - to last the full 12 rounds vs. a relatively low-volume, plodding counterpuncher in Canelo. Yes, Canelo's counterpunching is timely, accurate, and packed with power that could stop Saunders at any point in the fight. But I think Saunders is the best defensive fighter Canelo has fought since his split decision victory vs. Lara and think Saunders will be mostly successful eluding Canelo's power and the traps he often sets for his opponents.

In any case, this will be the first fight (and sporting event overall) that I've attended since the pandemic began over a year ago so definitely looking forward to it!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Fight to go the distance (bet to WIN .65 unit

2) Saunders to win (bet to RISK .15 unit)

Garcia vs. Campbell: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2021-01-02T11:32:00.002-05:00

Fight: Ryan Garcia (20-0, 17 KOs) vs. Luke Campbell (20-3, 16 KOs)

Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Date: January 2, 2021
Weight class: Lightweight
Major title(s) on the line: None
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line (BetAnySports): Garcia: -440, Campbell: +350 (1/2/21)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5-ranked lightweight, Campbell: #4-ranked lightweight
Style: Garcia: Southpaw, Campbell: Southpaw

Prefight Analysis

So, I fully expect Ryan Garcia - probably the most popular boxing sensation we've seen under the age of 25 since a young Oscar De La Hoya in the mid/late 1990's - to win Saturday's fight vs. Luke Campbell, most likely by stoppage. At just 22 years old he's inexperienced and still a bit raw, but the signs are there that this is a future superstar in the making. Garcia's combination of fast-twitch hand speed and one-punch KO power (power that rates pound-for-pound with the very best in the sport) is rare, as evidenced by his last three fights ending inside 2 rounds - including his most recent fight vs. Francisco Fonseca (1st round KO), a fighter who it took current undefeated WBA (regular) lightweight title holder Gervonta Davis 8 rounds to stop back in 2017, when Davis was Ryan's current age (in what was widely considered a disappointing performance from Davis).

Campbell is a world-class, battle-tested fighter with a highly impressive amateur pedigree (which includes a 2012 Olympic gold medal), and has the footwork and discipline defensively to frustrate the inexperienced Garcia and prevent him from getting the early stoppage he's been accustomed to in recent fights. Despite this, Garcia's (wide) advantage in hand speed and comparable reach relative to Campbell should allow him to be reasonably effective in landing a good portion of his patented left hooks and straight right hands over the course of the fight. The concussive power that complements Garcia's quick hands might be an insurmountable obstacle for a somewhat chinny Campbell who, while durable (having never been stopped in his professional career), has been knocked down four times in his last 11 fights - all at the hands of fighters with considerably less punching power than Garcia.

Garcia is a young, supremely confident boxer who has shown vast improvements in recent fights, having knocked out all four fighters he's faced inside of 5 rounds since switching trainers two years ago from his father to reigning BWAA trainer of the year - and current trainer of Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1 Canelo Alvarez - Eddy Reynoso. He's an undefeated Mexican-American fighter with one of the highest KO percentages amongst world title contenders in the sport (85%). And - given his talent combined with his considerable social media following - Garcia is considered by many far and away the fighter out of the current stable of young American boxing stars (a stable which includes current lightweight world title-holders Gervonta Davis, Teofimo Lopez, and Devin Haney) most likely to follow Oscar De La Hoya and Floyd Mayweather to become the next American boxing superstar.

Consider that, with over 12.5 million followers over the primary social media platforms (Instagram, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, TikTok - more followers than even Canelo and 2nd in number of followers only to current unified heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua amongst active boxers in the world), Garcia will likely be the promotional A-side for every fight he's involved in for years to come (at least until he loses). In this sort of spot - especially in the Mexican-American friendly confines of the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, where Garcia will undoubtedly be the overwhelming crowd favorite - the A-side usually gets the nod in close fights that could go either way. Garcia is backed financially by boxing powerhouses Golden Boy Promotions and DAZN to be the next generational superstar in boxing - one would suspect that it would take a clearly superior performance from Campbell to overcome the promotional and hostile crowd biases he'll face outside the ring.

But the odds on this fight at U.S. sportsbooks are currently as high as 3.5-1 (implying that Campbell wins this matchup between 20-25% of the time), which I think is a bit absurd - even with Ryan's undeniable talent inside the ring and aforementioned intangible advantages (promotional A-side, crowd favorite) on the outside. Campbell is a world-class, proven fighter with experience who will by far be the most difficult test of Garcia's career to date. Campbell does have three losses, though two of those losses (to highly regarded then-WBA lightweight champion Jorge Linares in 2017 and French contender Yvan Mendy back in 2015) were very close, split-decision losses - with the loss to Mendy being avenged by Campbell in 2018 via unanimous decision victory. Campbell's only other loss was in 2019 to then pound-for-pound #1 Vasiliy Lomachenko in a fight where Campbell frustrated Lomachenko and gave him one of the tougher fights of his career even in what was a fairly wide unanimous decision loss. In the loss, Campbell buckled Lomachenko a couple of times, including a left hook to the body in the 7th round that forced Lomachenko to hold to regain his composure.

If Campbell could go 12 rounds and land solid power shots vs. a supremely talented, elusive Lomachenko, there's no reason to think he couldn't be more effective vs. a less experienced Garcia who isn't nearly as defensively sound or slippery as Lomachenko. At 5'10", Garcia is a relatively tall fighter for his weight class who often fights in an upright stance (often leaving both his body and chin exposed). I anticipate Garcia's boxing stance, combined with his relatively flat-footed style, providing ample scoring opportunities for a fighter in Campbell who - with a career KO percentage of 70% - has underrated punching power in his own right.

Campbell matches up with Garcia better than any fighter Garcia's fought previously in terms of size and reach, and is the more experienced, technically sound boxer. As Campbell showed in his fights with Lomachenko and Linares, he has the footwork and durability to go the distance with even immensely talented, A-level fighters; I feel Campbell will be able to frustrate Garcia early with this footwork and durability and begin to land serious power shots of his own in the middle to late rounds.

Garcia's lack of experience vs. top-level competition is by far the biggest question mark in this fight. He's fought only 4 rounds in the past two years (all vs. B and C-level opponents); the last time he actually went the distance was a majority 10-round decision victory in 2018 vs. Mexican journeyman Carlos Morales in a fight where Ryan was hurt late in the 7th round and that many thought he lost.

While I like Garcia's talent and potential - the unknowns of how a still-raw 22-year old kid will perform vs. a legitimate top-level, battle-tested contender who has won Olympic gold and has been competitive vs. pound-for-pound A-level talent makes me feel the current +350 odds (or anything +300 and above for that matter) for Campbell is a price too good to pass up. Again, I do think Garcia probably wins this fight (and likely wins the fight by stoppage given the hand speed and power discrepancy vs. a fighter in Campbell who doesn't have the best chin). But the better value in my mind lies with the much more experienced, battle-tested fighter who also happens to have good power in a matchup vs. a young guy whose chin has never been tested at this level.

Either way, this fight should reveal a lot about where Garcia stands as a title contender and potential future superstar in the sport. Will Garcia shine like a then similarly inexperienced and untested Gervonta Davis did four years ago as a 22-year old when he stopped an undefeated Jose Pedraza for his first world title? Or will Saturday's fight prove Garcia isn't quite ready for the world-class stage yet (or even provide evidence that he'll never be ready)? As recently as last year, Garcia's promoters at Golden Boy were hesitant to put him in vs. top-level competition so tonight's fight should answer a lot of questions!

Prediction: Campbell to win

Recommended bet: Campbell to win (bet to RISK .33 unit)

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2020-09-25T19:14:00.002-04:00

Fight: Jermall Charlo (30-0, 22 KOs) vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko (13-2, 10 KOs)
Location: Mohegan Sun Casino, Uncasville, Connecticut
Date: September 26, 2020
Weight class: Middleweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight title
TV/Stream: Showtime PPV
Line (Bovada): Charlo: -185, Derevyanchenko: +150 (9/25/20)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Charlo: #3-ranked middleweight, Derevyanchenko: #4-ranked middleweight
Style: Charlo: Orthodox, Derevyanchenko: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Jermall Charlo vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko will likely give boxing fans a much better sense of where these two elite middleweights fall within the pecking order of the division - especially Charlo, who some observers feel could prove in the very near future to be the best middleweight in the world. An impressive win by the slightly-favored Charlo in this weekend's matchup would further confirm the feelings of some that Charlo poses the biggest threat at middleweight to current pound-for-pound #1 and Ring Magazine lineal/WBA Super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez should he come back down from higher weight classes to fight in the division.

Charlo, the current WBC middleweight champion, sports an impressive 30-0 record and he - along with his identical twin brother, WBC super welterweight champion Jermell Charlo - have risen in recent years to become among the most well-known names in the sport. Despite his perfect record and having won world titles in two different weight classes (Jermall Charlo held the IBF super welterweight title from 2015 to 2017 before vacating it to move up to middleweight), Charlo has never received serious consideration as one of the best pound-for-pound boxers in the sport due in large part to lack of notable opponents on his resume. (A past prime Austin Trout and a chinny Julian Williams have been his two toughest opponents thus far in his career.) A stoppage or clear unanimous decision victory vs. a widely-respected, elite middleweight in Derevyanchenko could be the fight that moves Charlo into the pound-for-pound rankings and on the precipice of becoming a boxing superstar.

After very close decision losses to Daniel Jacobs and Golovkin (a split decision loss to Jacobs and unanimous decision loss to Golovkin in a fight that many - myself included - felt won), Derevyanchenko hopes his third time challenging for the middleweight championship is the charm in a fight almost universally considered the toughest challenge of Charlo's career. Despite only having 15 professional fights with an unremarkable record of 13-2, Derevyanchenko is a seasoned boxing veteran with over 400 amateur fights and a fighter who some, despite only being six years and 15 fights into his professional career, would argue beat both Jacobs and Golovkin. If Derevyanchenko upsets Charlo, he stakes his claim as potentially the best middleweight in the world and sets himself up for lucrative PPV matchups with other elite 160-pounders. If he wins the WBC belt from Charlo, Derevyanchenko - even with the promotional roadblocks that would make it a difficult fight to make - could be an opponent that entices Canelo to come back down to middleweight to unify titles, given Derevyanchenko's come-forward, pressuring style that many feel Canelo's excellent counter punching skills would match up very well against.

Charlo vs. Derevyanchenko is the first of two main events in a unique "double" card taking place on Showtime PPV this Saturday night. Five of the six televised fights on the card will be world title fights and will feature notable fighters such as Charlo's twin brother (and current WBC super welterweight champion) Jermell, undefeated former WBC bantamweight titlist Luis Nery, and current undefeated WBA super bantamweight titlist Brandon Figueroa. Jermall's WBC middleweight title defense vs. Derevyanchenko will headline the first portion of the PPV, while Jermell's unification title fight with WBA and IBF champion Jeison Rosario will headline the second portion. Saturday night's double PPV card is widely considered one of the most stacked PPV cards in numerous years.

Prefight Analysis

When this fight was first announced, I was inclined to believe that Derevyanchenko to win (as a slight underdog) would probably be the best bet. Even with exactly half as many professional fights as Charlo, Derevyanchenko has the vastly superior experience vs. top-level opposition at middleweight, given his close (and highly debatable) losses over the past two years to Jacobs and pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin. Even unheralded middleweight Jack Culcay, a German boxer Derevyanchenko beat by unanimous decision in 2019 on the undercard of the Caleb Truax vs. Peter Quillin fight in Minnesota, could arguably be considered a better opponent than any middleweight Charlo has fought to date. (Culcay is currently ranked the #8 middleweight boxer in the world by BoxRec.) Charlo has fought five times at middleweight since vacating his super welterweight title in 2017, and has yet to fight a top-10 ranked middleweight opponent. Charlo has also failed to impress in most of his recent fights at middleweight, most notably his 2018 unanimous decision victory vs. Matvey Korobov that some felt should have been scored for Korobov.

Derevyanchenko is a technically sound pressure fighter whose relatively short (5'9") stature may work to his advantage in Saturday's fight to enable him to duck under Charlo's attack and score effectively on the inside, as he did for stretches vs. both Golovkin and Jacobs. At 34 years old and with those two losses in recent PPV title fights, one would think that the sense of urgency will definitely be there Saturday night for Derevyanchenko, as this third title shot could be the last chance he gets to win a major belt, given his age and the wars he's been through in recent years.

Derevyanchenko is a gritty, determined fighter with the superior experience and - despite the losses - has arguably looked more impressive at middleweight than Charlo ever has. At least on the surface, betting on Derevyanchenko to win straight up (+150) or by decision (+275) as an underdog would seem to be very solid value, especially given that Charlo is still unproven at the elite level and to date has faced no one near Derevyanchenko's caliber at middleweight.

But, despite the unknowns about Charlo at middleweight, I still like Jermall in this matchup. Styles make fights and I think at the end of the day, Derevyanchenko's style of pressure won't fare well vs. Charlo's defensively responsible style and physical metrics. Although Charlo previously fought as a super welterweight (154 lbs), his size and power have carried very well up to 160 lbs to the point where he can be considered a big middleweight who could likely compete for a world title as a super middleweight (168 lbs) in the near future. Charlo is bigger, stronger, and faster than Derevyanchenko - and has an elite power jab that I expect will control the tempo of the fight given Charlo's significant 6" reach advantage. In addition to a jab that's one of the best in boxing (and has been one of the best in boxing for a few years now), Charlo is slicker and more savvy defensively with better foot movement than any of Derevyanchenko's previous opponents at middleweight, including Golovkin and Jacobs. Relative to Golovkin and Jacobs, Derevyanchenko in my opinion will find it tougher to apply his patented high volume pressure given Charlo's reach advantage and defensive abilities. And - given Charlo's adeptness at countering pressure with big power that's quick and often pinpoint - Derevyanchenko's pressure might create too many holes that Charlo can exploit.

At 30 years old, Charlo is the younger fighter in the prime of his career while Derevyanchenko - despite only being 15 fights into his professional career - is a bit past his prime at 34 (turning 35 next month). Derevyanchenko also hasn't fought in nearly a year, which I think will be to the detriment of the aging fighter. Even with the time he's had off to rest, Derevyanchenko is a battle-worn fighter from his lengthy, 400+ fight amateur career and the wars he's had in recent years with the likes of Golovkin and Jacobs.

It would also be remiss to discount the promotional politics behind Saturday night's boxing card. Charlo's manager (and de facto promoter) Al Haymon, along with the Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) boxing series, are using this double PPV card as part of their effort to build the Charlo twins into one of the biggest brands in the sport. Jermall Charlo is obviously the "A" side of this matchup; Derevyanchenko is the "B" side and was the "B" side in his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs - it shouldn't come as a surprise that he came out on the short end on the judges' scorecards in both of those close fights in which either could reasonably have been scored in his favor. For the PBC series, where the Charlo twins are among the more marketable commodities in all of boxing, I'd have to think a close fight this Saturday night is just as likely to be scored in favor of the "A" side Charlo as Derevyanchenko's fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs were.

So, all things considered, I like betting the favored Charlo for the win here. In terms of method of victory - Derevyanchenko has been knocked down early in each of his two other recent PPV fights vs. Golovkin and Jacobs (both times in the first round) but has never come close to being stopped as a pro. Charlo possesses big power that I feel will be effective vs. Derevyanchenko's pressure, but Charlo is by nature a low-volume, cautiously aggressive fighter which - combined with Derevyanchenko's resilient nature and sturdy chin - leads me to believe it's highly likely this fight goes to decision. Therefore, I think a bet on Charlo to win by decision offers the best value for this matchup Either way, definitely looking forward to this event and the stacked card!!!

Prediction: Charlo to win

Recommended bet: Charlo to win by decision (bet to RISK .5 unit)

Wilder vs. Fury II: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2020-02-22T17:37:00.002-05:00

Fight: Deontay Wilder (42-0-1, 41 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (29-0-1, 20 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 22, 2020
Weight class: Heavyweight
Major title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV/Stream: ESPN/FOX PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Wilder: -131, Fury: +121 (12/20/20)
Purse: Wilder: $5 million, Fury: $5 million (though both will be guaranteed at least $25 million each, not including percentages of PPV profits)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #1 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Fury: Orthodox

Prefight Analysis

I've found it (mildly) surprising that a clear majority of boxing experts/sharps - including quite a few who picked Fury to win the first fight and actually thought he won that fight despite the fight being scored a draw - are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the rematch. Indeed, Wilder by TKO/KO *might* be the most likely of all specific outcomes so might - especially at well above even money odds (currently +125 at 5Dimes) - be the best bet on this fight. As noted (perhaps ad nauseam) in the massive Fox/ESPN promotion for the fight, Deontay Wilder might have the hardest single punch in the *history* of boxing with his straight right hand. Wilder has the highest TKO/KO percentage in heavyweight boxing history (95.4%) and has either knocked out or knocked down every fighter he's ever faced in his professional career, including knocking Fury down twice in the last four rounds of their first fight.

Wilder - who took up boxing relatively late at 20 years old - is actually a still-improving fighter who has shown noticeable improvement in most of his recent fights in particular. Wilder's improvement is reflected in the fact that in each of his two previous rematches (vs. Bermane Stiverne in November 2017 and Luis Ortiz in 2019), Wilder was able to finish his opponent faster in the rematch than he was in the first fight; it certainly stands to reason that there's a very good chance Wilder could look similarly impressive in tonight's rematch vs. Fury.

To his credit, Wilder did make the necessary adjustments - in the last four rounds of his first fight vs. Fury - to his punch trajectory that enabled him to knock Fury down twice and almost stop him in the 12th round. It stands to reason that Wilder's successful adjustments (which speak to at least a partial "figuring out" of Fury's defensive movement) will carry over into the rematch.

The fact that Fury just three months ago switched trainers (from Ben Davidson to the Kronk Gym's SugarHill Steward) for tonight's rematch might also be of concern to Fury supporters, as it typically takes time for even experienced, elite boxers to adjust to a new trainer (though Fury is familiar with Steward from having previously trained under his uncle Emmanuel Steward many years ago at the same gym). All indications are that the switch in trainers was made to implement a more aggressive, come-forward attack strategy vs. Wilder with the hopes of beating Wilder by knockout; this could very well prove to be a foolhardy strategy vs. one of the hardest punchers in the history of boxing as it perhaps will do little more than increase Fury's own chances of getting knocked out himself.

Furthermore, Fury weighing in for this fight at 273 pounds - 16.5 pounds heavier than he weighed in his first fight with Wilder - could render him less able to be as mobile and elusive as he likely will need to be at certain points of the fight, particularly in the late stages where he was knocked down twice in the previous fight vs. Wilder. (Despite the draw, Fury won the first fight in most people's eyes largely by employing his typical rangy, pot shot-from-distance style with constant movement that helped him mostly avoid Wilder's knockout punches for *most* of the fight.)

I did pick Wilder to win by TKO/KO in the first fight, though that was nearly entirely because I felt Fury took that fight too soon after a 2.5 year layoff - a layoff riddled with mental health and substance abuse issues, as well as a near 150-pound weight gain - and not having fought any world-class competition in the months in the months leading up to that fight to prep himself. It seems even more boxing experts (including gambling "sharps" generally sharper at picking fights than myself) are picking Wilder to win by TKO/KO in tonight's rematch.

But despite all the concerns I've detailed above - including the recent trainer change and weight gain coming in to tonight's fight - I'm going to go against what seems to be the sentiment of most boxing experts and stick with my months-old (since the rematch was announced last Spring) prediction that Tyson Fury will win his rematch with Wilder (and will win in likely decisive fashion).

Despite all the concerns I've noted above, at the end of the day Fury is the better-skilled, smarter, defensively-sharper, overall superior boxer who - by most boxing observers' estimation - decisively outboxed Wilder in their first fight, outside of the two rounds in the fight where he was knocked down. Yes, Wilder has proven himself to be one of the better knockout artists in boxing history, but I firmly believe the 12th-round knockdown in the first fight was more the result of Fury getting careless and believing he already had the fight won. (According to the official judges' scorecards, Fury would indeed have won the fight by split decision if he hadn't gotten knocked down in the last round). I see Fury ramping up his focus in the rematch and finding a way through his superior guile and fighting abilities - whether it be using his reach advantage and footwork to outbox Wilder from distance as he did in the first fight or using his size advantage and increased weight to impose his physicality on the inside as he's claimed he might do in the lead-up to the fight - to avoid the knockout punches he suffered when he got careless in the late stages of the first fight and box his way to a decisive victory.

One oft-repeated mantra of boxing is that in rematches between a boxer and a puncher, it is generally the (more fundamentally skilled) boxer who performs better in the rematch, as the boxer is typically more equipped to make the tactical adjustments necessary to more decisively outbox the puncher (given that the puncher is typically less diverse in terms of the range of his fighting abilities). Many are of the belief that it will actually be Wilder who performs better in tonight's fight, given that he did make adjustments in the late stages of the previous fight and given his history of improvement in rematches - as well as the room he has as a still somewhat raw fighter to improve in comparison to Fury, who many felt fought about as well as he could fight in the first match, yet still only earned a draw. But I think the boxer-over-puncher in rematches mantra will hold up in this fight (as it's more often than not held up in similar situations) and think Fury has trained to exploit the flaws in Wilder that he realized from the first fight (which is likely at least partly reflected in his decision to change trainers and come into this fight over 15 pounds heavier).

So I'm taking the superior boxer (Fury) to outbox and outwit the superior puncher (Wilder) in the rematch. While I think Fury most likely wins by decision, I prefer the bet of Fury simply to win (which can currently be had at +110 or better) given Fury's stated strategy of going into the fight with the purpose of trying to knock Wilder out in the early rounds (a strategy which is evidenced by Fury's trainer change and coming into this rematch at a heavier weight). I'm partially hedging the bet with a bet on the under 10.5 rounds (which I got early in the week at +110 but can still be had for around -115); this bet covers most scenarios where Wilder knocks Fury out but also covers most scenarios where Fury actually pulls off what it seems he's going into the fight with the full intention of doing - knocking Wilder out.

Lastly, I'd like to note that I largely view the Wilder vs. Fury rematch - both in the promotion of the fight and in the actual fight itself - as a (very well-played) game of optics; for the fight itself these "optics" I think have swayed even some boxing experts to the Wilder side of the ledger.

Optics present Wilder/Fury II as a megafight; one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of this generation and perhaps the most anticipated heavyweight fight since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson back in 2002. But the reality is this fight might be the most over-promoted fight in the 100+ year history of boxing. The massive multi-million dollar, dual-network promotion invested in this fight belies the fact that the first Wilder/Fury fight only did 325,000 PPV buys and that both fighters have had disappointing ratings in *all* the fights they've appeared in since that first fight. Neither Wilder or Fury's name carries mainstream cache (the majority of Americans don't even know who they are) and as of right now just a few hours prior to the fight, there are still numerous tickets available for the fight in an arena with a capacity of approximately 17,000 for boxing events. As of now, neither fighter even has a solid hall-of-fame resume (though Wilder's is perhaps borderline); in sum, one would be very hard-pressed to believe the actual caliber of this fight comes even close to matching the promotional resources invested into it.

Wilder's knockdowns, most notably his dramatic knockdown of Fury in the 12th round of their previous fight, provide impressive optics for those who might otherwise have been inclined to believe Fury would win the rematch. The reality is, Fury did avoid Wilder's power for nearly the entire fight and - in my opinion - likely only got caught in the 12th round after getting careless thinking he had the fight won.

Wilder's "swagger" (for lack of a better term at this moment,) is yet another impressive optic. Coming from a family of preachers, Wilder was blessed with a gift of gab and exudes extreme amounts of confidence - not only in how he expresses himself verbally but in his overall demeanor. At the end of the day, Wilder has always gotten the job done in the ring. But I do also think the swagger, confidence, and optics of his knockdowns have overstated his actual abilities a bit and think he's been a bit overrated (by casual fans and boxing experts alike) as a result. While expressed differently, I do believe Fury has a comparable level of confidence and self-belief as Wilder to match his superior skills and believe that will show clearly in tonight's fight.

Prediction: Fury to win

Recommended bets: 1) Fury to win (bet to RISK 1 unit) 2) Wilder/Fury under 10.5 rounds (risk .5 unit)

Spence vs. Porter: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2019-09-27T14:48:00.001-04:00

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Fight: Errol Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: September 28, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight and IBF World welterweight titles
TV: Fox PPV
Line (5 Dimes): Spence: -925, Porter: +725 (9/27/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #6 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Porter: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Porter: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

The welterweight division (147 lbs) has long been considered by many to be the deepest and most talented division in boxing. The biggest debate within the division - and perhaps the biggest debate in all of boxing - is whether Errol Spence or Terence Crawford is the best welterweight boxer in the world.

The undefeated Crawford - signed to a Top Rank promotional company largely devoid of quality welterweight opposition - has unfortunately had limited opportunities to face other elite welterweights. Nevertheless, he's continued to impress since moving up to welterweight last year with TKO victories over an undefeated Jeff Horn (which earned him Horn's WBC welterweight title), an undefeated Jose Benavidez Jr., and a solid, skilled veteran in Amir Khan. Many feel it's a two-man race between only Crawford and Vasiliy Lomachenko as to who's the best boxer in the world pound for pound.

But this Saturday night, Spence gets to make his case as the best in the welterweight division (and perhaps in all of boxing) vs. an opponent likely better than anyone Crawford has faced in his career in Shawn Porter. Spence is coming off a highly impressive victory of his own in winning every round on all three judges' scorecards this past March vs. then-undefeated and pound-for-pound ranked Mikey Garcia; prior to washing Garcia, Spence won 14 of 15 fights - including 11 consecutive fights - by TKO/KO. The undefeated Spence has not only won, but dominated, every fight of his 25-fight professional career but now faces another elite welterweight in Porter, whose only two losses have been to a then-undefeated Keith Thurman (who lost the first fight of his career this past July to Manny Pacquiao) and to a then-undefeated Kell Brook (who lost to Spence in 2017).

This fight is intriguing as it may be the first time in Spence's career he's fighting an opponent who can match (and arguably even exceed) him in terms of pure strength and physicality. (Porter - a former star football player in high school - has the physical build of a football player and competed mostly as a middleweight (160 lbs) in his early professional career and as an amateur.) Given these attributes - and given Porter's underrated boxing IQ as well as decided advantage in experience vs. top-level welterweight opponents - this is likely the toughest fight Spence could make at welterweight other than a much-anticipated superfight with Crawford.

Spence vs. Porter - a welterweight unification title fight - will be Fox's 3rd boxing PPV fight this year (as well as 3rd in the history of the network) following fight-of-the-year candidate Pacquiao vs. Thurman this past July and Spence vs. Garcia back in March. The winner of this fight is set up nicely for a possible unification megafight (and likely 8-figure payday) next year vs. Pacquiao, the current WBA welterweight champion.

Prefight Analysis

Outside of Terence Crawford, I've felt for a while now that Porter might be the toughest challenge for Spence at welterweight. Unlike pretty much every other welterweight Spence has fought (with the exception of Brook, who was actually beating Spence on two out of three judges' scorecards through seven rounds prior to ultimately getting stopped in the 11th round), Porter is on the same level as Spence in terms of pure strength and physicality. Porter is a strong, stocky welterweight who is actually used to fighting boxers bigger than him - whether as an amateur or very early in his professional career where he fought mostly at middleweight or in sparring where his trainer (father Kenny Porter) routinely matches him up with middleweights and super middleweights. (Porter's training for Saturday night's fight included sparring sessions with an undefeated, elite former super middleweight champion in David Benavidez.) Given Porter's own physical strength and experience fighting bigger opponents, it's tough to imagine Porter getting overwhelmed by Spence's size (as has been the fate of most of Spence's recent opponents).

Porter has a more aggressive, physical style than Spence; that combined with his slightly faster hand speed I think will allow Porter to beat the more patient Spence to the punch and outwork him for much of the early rounds as Spence settles in to the fight. Porter is a somewhat versatile, underrated-IQ fighter who - while preferring to brawl from the inside - has shown in his last two fights (vs. Yorgenis Ugas and in his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia) that he's capable of using foot movement and feints to box from the outside. Porter's unpredictability here combined with his typically awkward, wide-swinging style I think could work well for Porter in the early rounds vs. the more cautious Spence as he tries to figure Porter out. Spence's head movement in particular isn't great which I think will leave him susceptible to Porter's counterpunching and generally sharp left hooks on the inside.

Porter should also be given credit for being the much more experienced boxer in this matchup, having fought top welterweights such as Keith Thurman (who was undefeated at the time), Kell Brook (who was undefeated at the time), Danny Garcia (whose only loss at the time was to Thurman), Adrien Broner, and Devon Alexander (whose only loss at the time was to Timothy Bradley). Porter also has history of being a sparring partner for Manny Pacquiao when Pacquiao was in his prime (in preparation for Pacquiao's 2009 fight with Miguel Cotto and 2011 fight with Shane Mosley).By comparison, the only top welterweight Spence has fought in his career was Kell Brook, who at the time was coming off a TKO loss to Gennady Golovkin at middleweight.

Porter strikes me as the more determined fighter and arguably has more to prove than Spence does, as most folks seem to be writing this fight off as an easy one for the approximately 10-1 favorite Spence. But at least early, I expect this fight to surprise and be more competitive than most are expecting.

I do, however, think Spence will wear Porter down in the middle to late rounds with his punching power (in particular to the body) and superior technical skills. Spence has made it known that - unlike his most recent fight with Mikey Garcia where he largely outboxed Garcia from the outside - he's looking to make a statement and is gunning for a knockout victory vs. Porter. So after the early rounds, I expect Spence to apply pressure and try to fight Porter mostly on the inside. Porter can be elusive but I think given the PPV stage for this fight (Porter's first PPV fight and biggest fight of his career) that Porter (and his inner machismo) will look to trade punches with Spence on the inside more than he should (which I think will be to Porter's detriment). Porter has the hand speed and an aggressive enough style to outwork Spence but does not have the most defensively responsible technique on the inside. I see the power punches Spence will land from close range - especially to the body - being far more effective than Porter's pesky, but relatively innocuous style that has earned him only one TKO/KO victory in the last 4.5 years out of six fights. Though Porter is on Spence's level in terms of strength and physicality, I think Spence is a bit stronger and a bit more physical, with much greater punching power.

As the rounds progress, I think Spence - an underrated technician who dominated future hall-of-famer and four-division world champion Mikey Garcia largely by outboxing him from distance - will be increasingly effective in timing Porter with his jab and power punches. Porter has shown that he can box from the outside but note that Porter actually lost most of his early rounds vs. Danny Garcia while boxing from distance; Porter went on to win the middle rounds and the fight only after switching to a more brawling style inside. Also earlier this year, Porter barely eked out a split-decision victory boxing primarily from distance vs. a three-loss fighter in Yordenis Ugas, a fight some feel he lost. So Porter's best results might have to come from fighting inside which - unfortunately for him - will leave him more open to counterpunching and body shots from the bigger, harder-punching Spence, who is expected to be going for the knockout on Saturday night. I wouldn't be surprised if this fight becomes a mismatch on the inside by the later rounds.

Despite this I do, however, think Porter's elusiveness, determination, and grit will get him through the 12 rounds. As mentioned previously, Porter has a lot of experience fighting bigger guys and has also never even come close to being stopped in his professional career. Porter not only has horizontal elusiveness with his feet, he has great vertical elusiveness driven by his naturally low center of gravity that I expect to somewhat mitigate the effectiveness of Spence's power punches from close range.

If Spence were to stop Porter I think it would be (by far) the most impressive win of his career and would give him a solid case as not only the best welterweight boxer in the world but best boxer overall pound-for-pound. It wouldn't be surprising if Spence got the stoppage late but all things considered, the value I think lies with Porter surviving the distance in what should be a clear decision victory for Spence (though again I think the fight will be competitive early). I think there's value in both Spence by decision (which can currently be found at -140) and Spence by unanimous decision (which currently can be found at +115).

I will be at this fight Saturday night in Los Angeles - definitely hoping this one turns out to be every bit as good as Porter's fight-of-the-year candidate with Keith Thurman three years ago in NYC!

Prediction: Spence by decision

Recommended bet: Spence wins by any decision (bet to WIN .5 unit)

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Canelo vs. Jacobs: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2019-05-04T03:40:00.000-04:00

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (51-1-2 35 KOs) vs. Daniel Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: May 4, 2019
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight, WBA Super World middleweight, and IBF World middleweight titles
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -430, Jacobs: +380 (5 Dimes, 5/2/19)
Purse: Alvarez: $35 million, Jacobs: $2.5 million (though will be guaranteed over $10 million for this fight per terms of his contract with DAZN)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion, Jacobs: #2 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Jacobs: Orthodox
Referee: Tony Weeks

Why you should watch this fight

In mid-October of last year, Canelo Alvarez signed what at the time was the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history - a 5-year, 11-fight deal worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN. A few months later, Gennady Golovkin - winless after two (very) controversial decisions vs. Canelo that knocked him from the top of many pound-for-pound rankings - followed suit in signing a lucrative deal of his own, also with DAZN (3-year, 6-fight deal reportedly worth at least $100 million).

Given the two signings (combined worth nearly half a billion dollars), all signs point to a third fight between Golovkin and Canelo either this September or in May 2020 at the latest, a fight which might cap what will likely go down as one of the great trilogies in the history of boxing. But before the much-anticipated third fight, Canelo must first get through what will likely be a tough, competitive unification fight with IBF middleweight champion Danny Jacobs.

Since Floyd Mayweather Jr.'s retirement, Canelo has been (by far) boxing's biggest PPV attraction and is considered by many to be the most popular fighter in the sport. (With the emergence of sports streaming services like DAZN and ESPN+, Canelo might even go down in history as boxing's last true PPV star.) At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and coming off of two big wins in 2018 - a 3rd-round knockout of Rocky Fielding this past December that earned Canelo the WBA super middleweight title (the third division in which he's won a major title) and the biggest win of his career last September vs. then-undefeated, #1 pound-for-pound ranked Golovkin.

This Saturday, Canelo will face Jacobs in just the 2nd fight of his 11-fight contract with DAZN. On the surface, the fight with Jacobs is just an interim fight for Canelo warming him up for the inevitable 3rd mega-fight with Golovkin. But Jacobs is an outstanding, A-level boxer with elite punching power (78% KO ratio, which includes - with the exception of his loss to Golovkin - either a knockdown or knockout in each of his 16 fights over the past 8.5 years) who is poised to give Canelo fits with his size and reach advantage, superior speed and athleticism, and ability to box on the move. Jacobs is also a composed but determined, high IQ fighter who fought a very competitive fight with Golovkin in 2017. (I was at this fight and actually scored it 114-113 for Jacobs despite betting on Golovkin to win by TKO/KO.) Jacobs' close, unanimous decision loss to Golovkin actually ended Golovkin's 9-year, 23-fight KO streak.

The winner of Saturday's fight will be the unified WBC, WBA, and IBF middleweight champion and is likely headed for a mega-fight rematch with Golovkin next. Assuming the winner of Canelo vs. Jacobs does fight Golovkin next, what looms after the fight with Golovkin is a unification fight vs. WBO middleweight champion (and fellow DAZN-signed fighter) Demetrius Andrade for the undisputed middleweight championship. Whoever earns that undisputed middleweight championship will be the 1st undisputed middleweight champion since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

Saturday night will be Canelo's record 5th time fighting at T-Mobile Arena since the venue opened in 2016 and 12th time overall fighting in Las Vegas. (Saturday night will be Jacob's 1st time fighting at T-Mobile and 1st time fighting in Las Vegas since 2010.)

Prefight Analysis

There's a lot to like about Daniel Jacobs in this matchup. Besides having excellent power at middleweight (to the extent that Golovkin - who has never been knocked down or knocked out as an amateur or pro - had to respect Jacobs' power, staying cautious throughout large stretches of the fight), Jacobs is the naturally bigger, more mobile fighter with a 2.5" reach advantage. Canelo has struggled in the past vs. rangier fighters who move well (Mayweather, Erislandy Lara, Austin Trout); Jacobs certainly fits this description and is in many ways a bigger, stronger, more skilled version of a prime Austin Trout, who fought a close, competitive fight vs. Canelo in 2013 (that some observers felt he won - I scored that fight 114-113 for Canelo).

As he did with Golovkin, Jacobs should be able to at least in spots frustrate Canelo with movement behind a long jab; if anything Jacobs should have more success moving behind his jab vs. Canelo than he did vs. Golovkin given that Canelo is a bit more flat-footed, doesn't cut off the ring quite as well, and isn't quite the threat in terms of volume and punching power that Golovkin is.

At as high as a 4-1 (+400) underdog, I think Jacobs is being underrated in this matchup. Jacobs is an A minus/A-level fighter who has only lost twice in his career - his close, competitive loss to Golovkin in 2017 (again a fight which I actually edged to Jacobs despite betting on and rooting for Golovkin to win) and his 2010 5th-round TKO loss to Dmitry Pirog, a fight in which Jacobs was leading 3-1 on all three judges' scorecards at the time of stoppage. (Note that Pirog was a very highly regarded, undefeated prospect that many felt had the same level of talent as Golovkin coming up. Despite winning the vacant WBO middleweight title vs. Jacobs and successfully defending it for nearly two years, Pirog was forced to retire right before a scheduled fight with Golovkin because of a debilitating back injury suffered during training.) Jacobs is also a fighter who has either knocked down or knocked out each of his last 16 opponents over the course of the past 8.5 years years (with the exception of Golovkin). This list of opponents includes slick, elusive fighters who had never previously been stopped in their careers. In my opinion, Jacobs actually performed slightly better in his 2017 matchup with Golovkin than Canelo did in either of his two matchups with the Kazakh fighter - sticking behind his long jab and wearing Golovkin down in the later rounds with constant movement and timely punching.

Jacobs also comes across as a man of exceptional character and strong sense of determination - as evidenced inside the ring by how he performed after he got knocked down in the 4th round of his fight with Golovkin and outside the ring by how he overcame a rare form of bone cancer where Jacobs was told by doctors he would never box again and might not ever walk again. Any man who has overcome what Jacobs has overcome in life won't be intimidated by Canelo or the prospect of fighting what will be by far the biggest fight of his career in front of a hostile, Canelo-friendly crowd. I expect Jacobs to put up a solid performance vs. Canelo, frustrating a smaller, less athletic, relatively flat-footed Canelo with length and constant movement, which I think may re-introduce the stamina issues Canelo has had in several fights in his career, including his 1st fight with Golovkin.

With all this said, I do think Canelo probably wins this fight. I see Canelo as (perhaps by far) the more skilled, accurate power puncher, particularly when executing his body attack. Jacobs has good movement but I think Canelo will be able to counterpunch effectively in spots where Jacobs is throwing his own power punches within range. Jacobs may win the jab battle from distance but I see Canelo getting the better of close-range exchanges, which typically make more of an impression on the judges in terms of scoring. Note that Maciej Sulecki who, like Canelo, is an effective combination puncher with fast hands, had success landing power punches in many stretches of his fight last year with Jacobs - a fight that was close and competitive until Jacobs knocked Sulecki down in the 12th round. Canelo is in many ways a (much) more skilled, heavier-handed version of Sulecki; it is likely with his superior skills and accuracy that he will have more success landing power punches on Jacobs than even Sulecki did.

Scoring seems to play a controversial (and often pivotal) role in most of Canelo's big fights. At this point you have to think that there's a good chance that this will again be the case Saturday night, especially given that the three judges for the fight (Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman, and Steve Weisfeld) will be the same three judges that controversially scored Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin in favor of Canelo. (Canelo's 2nd fight with Golovkin was a very close fight that most felt Golovkin edged.) Canelo is the biggest draw in in the sport and - from a boxing politics standpoint - is certainly the favored, more heavily promoted fighter in this matchup. Canelo is only the second fight into one of the largest contracts for an individual athlete in the history of pro sports; a loss for Canelo here could (at least from a monetary standpoint) be semi-devastating for DAZN and the sport of boxing as a whole. Canelo has gotten (very) favorable scoring in every big fight of his career (most notably including one judge scoring his 2013 fight with Mayweather - a fight most felt Mayweather clearly dominated - a draw and another judge scoring 10 out of 12 rounds of his 1st fight with Golovkin in his favor - a score which even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya disagreed with). I feel there is a good chance biased scoring could come into play yet again Saturday night in what will likely be a close and competitive fight.

Jacobs is older but Canelo is the decidedly more experienced fighter, having essentially fought a who's who list of boxers since his early 20s. This experience - along with the wide variety of styles Canelo has faced throughout the prime of his career - is one of the reasons he seems to get (noticeably) better with each fight. As a fighter still in the middle of his prime I think there's a good chance we'll see an even further improved Canelo in Saturday's fight.

While not as fast as Jacobs on foot, Canelo has deceptively fast hand speed (i.e., likely faster hand speed that Jacobs) which is one of the reasons I anticipate he'll be able to counter Jacobs effectively within range, especially to the body. Despite Jacobs' physical advantages I wouldn't be surprised if Canelo stops Danny given his ability - which perhaps is the best in boxing at the moment - to throw fast and varied power punch combinations with accuracy.

Given Canelo's advantages in skill and experience, along with what I suspect will be a fight scored with at least a shade of pro-Canelo bias in front of what will be an overwhelmingly pro-Canelo crowd on Cinco De Mayo weekend at T-Mobile Arena, I grade Canelo as roughly a 70/30 favorite to win this fight. But, Jacobs is currently being listed as a nearly +400 underdog at many sportsbooks (currently as high as +405 at Bet Online) which implies that sportsbooks feel Jacobs has roughly only a 20% chance to win the fight. Given what I believe to be an undervaluation of Jacobs in the sportsbook market for this fight I actually think taking Jacobs to win is the bet with the best value (despite the fact that I do grade Canelo as a strong favorite to win this fight). If I felt sketchy judging definitely wouldn't be a factor I would take Jacobs to win at those odds quickly without even thinking about it; Jacobs is a highly skilled fighter with a combination of size, power, reach, and determination than Canelo has never seen before which I think at minimum makes Jacob a very live underdog.

Again, I think Jacobs likely loses this fight and - given the politics surrounding the fight and history of scoring in big fights involving Canelo - it's tough to envision Jacobs winning by decision on the scorecards. But I think at nearly 4-1, the odds are too good to pass up a bet on Jacobs given his elite-level skills and the numerous physical advantages he'll have in this matchup. So I'll be taking a small bet on Jacobs to win with an even smaller bet on a draw (at 20-1) as pure value plays.

But this fight could go a number of ways - I'll be in attendance and will be looking forward to see how everything pans out!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bets:
1) Jacobs to win (.25 unit)
2) Alvarez/Jacobs draw (.1 unit)

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Errol Spence vs. Mikey Garcia: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2019-03-16T10:58:00.001-04:00

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Fight: Errol Spence (24-0, 21 KOs) vs. Mikey Garcia (39-0, 30 KOs)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Date: March 16, 2019
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: IBF World welterweight title
TV: Fox PPV
Line: Spence: -360, Garcia: +325 (5 Dimes, 3/16/19)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Spence: #10 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked welterweight, Garcia: #7 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked lightweight
Style: Spence: Southpaw, Garcia: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

While well-known amongst boxing fans, Errol Spence and Mikey Garcia are far from household names in the mainstream sports world. But Spence vs. Garcia is probably one of the more intriguing matchups of the past several years. Spence vs. Garcia is the first matchup featuring two undefeated, Ring Magazine top 10 pound-for-pound fighters since Andre Ward fought Sergey Kovalev in 2016 and is the first such matchup (between undefeated, top 10 pound-for-found-rated fighters) at welterweight since Floyd Mayweather Jr. fought Ricky Hatton in 2007.

Errol Spence - the current IBF welterweight champion of the world - is an undefeated former Olympian who is considered by many to be the best fighter in arguably the most talented weight division in the sport. Spence is a skilled, versatile boxer who's used his typical advantages over his opponents in size, speed, power, and athleticism to not only win, but dominate every fight of his 24-fight professional career. Spence has won 14 of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO.

This Saturday night Spence will face Mikey Garcia, another undefeated fighter who is trying to become only the 6th 5-division champion in the history of the sport (Manny Pacquiao, Mayweather, Oscar De La Hoya, Sugar Ray Leonard, and Thomas Hearns), a feat which would make his already likely future induction into the International Boxing Hall of Fame a certainty.

Like most opponents on Spence's resume, Garcia - a natural lightweight (135 lbs) - will come into Saturday night's fight as the smaller fighter with disadvantages in power, speed, and athleticism. But Garcia is an immensely talented fighter who most would consider to be the more skilled boxer with the higher ring IQ. Garcia is blessed with a unique combination of power, accuracy, timing, and efficient footwork that Spence has never seen before and will have to respect if he wants to win this fight.

This will be the first fight of Garcia's career as an underdog (+325 at the time of this blog) and will likely be by far the toughest fight of his career to date. But if Garcia - who spent the majority of his career at featherweight (126 lbs) and super featherweight (130 lbs) - can beat the man considered by many to be the best (and most avoided) welterweight in the world in his first fight as a welterweight, he'll become an instant boxing legend, a legend in the Mexican-American communities of the United States, and perhaps even a legend back in his parents' home country of Mexico.

If Spence wins the fight (as expected by most), it'll likely set the stage for a title unification super fight vs. one of the other elite welterweight title holders promoted by Premier Boxing Champions - Shawn Porter, Manny Pacquiao, or Keith Thurman - either later this year or early 2019 at the latest.

Spence vs. Garcia will be the first boxing pay-per-view (PPV) ever carried by the Fox network and the second boxing PPV to take place at the 105,000+ capacity AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas (home of the National Football League's Dallas Cowboys) - the first being Canelo Alvarez vs. Liam Smith in 2016.

Prefight Analysis

The outcome of Saturday night's fight largely depends on on how well Garcia's skills carry up to welterweight. Most observers agree that Garcia is probably the better pure boxer and all-around more skilled fighter in this matchup. To date Garcia has also probably had the more impressive career, having already won major world titles in 4 weight divisions and already likely secured a future spot in the International Boxing Hall of Fame behind his elite punching power in both hands complemented with exceptional timing, punch accuracy, and footwork.

Earlier this winter, Garcia spent 5 weeks of his training camp with world-renowned sports nutritionist Victor Conte to build muscle mass and gain strength - while retaining quickness and speed - for his move up to welterweight. If Garcia is able to carry his punching power up to welterweight without losing reaction time and the ability to move on his feet that he had at lower weights than this fight is much closer to a true 50/50 fight than the 75/25 to 80/20 fight the oddsmakers currently have this matchup graded as. Behind one of the best power jabs in the sport and the ability to counter accurately off his back foot, Garcia is very capable of performing better than then-IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook in his May 2017 fight vs. Spence, who on two of the three official judges' scorecards outpointed Spence over the first five rounds of their fight.

Garcia's patient, yet accurate and concussive punching power could be the perfect antidote to Spence's aggressive, lunge-forward style as Spence has shown susceptibility to clean counters when executing his attack (as seen in his early rounds vs. Brook).

There is a reason why Garcia sought out this fight and is extremely confident headed in to this matchup. Spence is a very good to perhaps great fighter but Garcia may just be a historically great fighter - a win Saturday night in his first fight at welterweight vs. the man many consider the best (and most avoided) fighter in the division will go a very long way towards proving that.

But, at the end of the day, I think the natural weight deficiency will be (way) too much for Garcia to overcome. It's been rare but we have seen instances of boxers moving up multiple weight classes to win a major title vs. an elite fighter in only their first fight at that weight class. But we've never seen a fighter move up two weight classes to beat the guy many consider to be not only the best fighter in the weight class, but also the best power puncher in the weight class with the highest knockout ratio (88%) in the division.

The weight discrepancy is further compounded by the fact that Spence is considered big for the weight class. Spence is currently the IBF welterweight champ but he's a very big, physically-imposing welterweight with a football background to boot. There is little doubt he would be the best fighter at super welterweight if he moved up to 154 pounds and he would likely be a highly successful fighter even at middleweight (160 lbs). As talented as Garcia is - and perhaps he really is the historically great talent many seem to think - one has to wonder what kind of chance a natural lightweight realistically has vs. a fighter with the athleticism and power that Spence has and vs. a fighter is Spence who could conceivably fight at an elite level at as high as middleweight. Garcia has in the past been knocked down by a light-fisted puncher at super featherweight (Roman Martinez) and - although he won the junior welterweight (140 lbs) title decisively last March vs. Sergey Lipinets - he was hit cleanly quite often by the tough Russian and didn't come close to stopping him offensively. In that fight vs. Lipinets, the skill discrepancy between Garcia and the Russian was apparent but Lipinets' size and toughness kept the fight somewhat competitive, particularly in the middle rounds where he had his most success. If Lipinets could stay competitive with Garcia at 140 lbs, I quite frankly see a (much) bigger, stronger, more athletic and skilled Spence being infinitely more competitive to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if it's an easy fight for him this Saturday night.

The theory behind this fight between a natural lightweight in Garcia and a pseudo-middleweight in Spence being competitive is based primarily on the thought that Garcia's skill advantage gives him a real shot but Spence's skills are being (way) underrated here. Again, Spence is a fighter who has not only beaten, but dominated every fighter who has stepped inside the ring with him. This included a domination of Brook - who many considered to be one of the most skilled pound-for-pound fighters in boxing at the time and who arguably is on the same level as Garcia in terms of skill - in Brook's home country to win the IBF welterweight title. This also included a quick 5th round destruction (in April 2016) of former WBO light welterweight champion Chris Algieri, a feather-fisted but slick and very mobile fighter who even Manny Pacquiao was unable to stop through 12 rounds. (That 5th-round stoppage was the first and only stoppage loss of Algieri's career.)

To be fair, Spence's resume isn't too impressive outside of Brook, gritty veteran (and former 2-division champion) Lamont Peterson (who Spence defeated last year by 7th-round stoppage), and maybe Algieri but Garcia's resume is also far from noteworthy. There's irony in Garcia being considered by many (including myself) to be a future likely future hall-of-famer, yet through 39 professional fights, he has yet to face another hall-of-fame caliber fighter himself.

The expected fight dynamics don't work too well in Garcia's favor either. Garcia is typically a slow starter and not the most active puncher in terms of volume. Even Adrien Broner - another notoriously slow starter and low-volume puncher who stayed ultra-conservative throughout his unanimous decision loss to Garcia in 2017 - was able to win four rounds on two judges scorecards vs. Garcia, including two of the first four rounds. Garcia's tendency to start slow and pick up the pace in the middle rounds may not work well against a bigger, more active and aggressive fighter like Spence who has solid stamina and a proven ability to finish strong in the later rounds (see Spence's 11th round stoppage of Brook despite Brook's successes in the early rounds).

Garcia has one of the best jabs in boxing but Spence has a solid jab of his own and a 4" reach advantage that will at least to some degree mitigate the effectiveness of Garcia's jab. Spence is also a devastating body puncher - perhaps the best in the sport today - which I'd expect to neutralize Garcia's counter punching as the fight progresses.

Especially given Garcia's soft body physique, I do think Spence's body punching will play the biggest role in what I expect to be a clear and decisive win for him Saturday night. Garcia is a tremendously intelligent and talented fighter but I think Spence's natural advantages in size, pure strength, athleticism, and punching power will be too much for him to overcome - especially in the later rounds.

Given Spence's physical advantages and the fact that he's won 14 out of his last 15 fights - including his last 11 - by TKO/KO, I think the most likely result of Saturday's fight is Spence by TKO/KO. But given Garcia's technical prowess - which includes solid fundamentals defensively - and ability to move well on his feet, I wouldn't be surprised if he lasts the full 12 rounds in what I still think would be a clear unanimous decision victory for Spence. While Spence to win by stoppage (currently being offered at better than even money odds) and Spence to win in rounds 7-12 (currently offered at better than 2-1 odds) are solid bets with strong value (and are bets I've placed smaller side wagers on), the bet I like the most here for mitigation of risk is Spence to win by KO or unanimous decision, currently being offered at 5Dimes at approximately -175 odds.

Spence vs. Garcia is a true legacy-defining fight and by far the most important fight of both fighters' careers. It will be interesting to see how both fighters - both of whom are typically very calm and composed by nature - perform in the big moment!

Prediction: Spence by TKO/KO

Recommended bets: 1) Spence by KO or unanimous decision (bet to WIN 1 unit)

2) Spence by TKO/KO/DQ (bet to RISK .25 unit)

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Canelo vs. Rocky Fielding: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-12-14T00:57:00.003-05:00

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (50-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Rocky Fielding (27-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 15, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA (Regular) World Super middleweight title
TV/Stream: DAZN
Line: Alvarez: -1600, Fielding: +1050 (5 Dimes, 12/14/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: #3 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine middleweight champion [Alvarez is not ranked at super middleweight], Fielding: #9 ranked super middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Fielding: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

On American soil, Canelo Alvarez is (by far) the top PPV attraction in boxing today, with his last three fights over the past year and a half - his two most recent vs. Gennady Golovkin and another in May 2017 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. - each selling over 1 million PPV buys. (Canelo's fights vs. Golovkin and Chavez Jr. had the highest PPV buy rates for boxing matches not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002.)

But this past October, Canelo (supported by his promoter - the Oscar De La Hoya-backed Golden Boy Promotions) exited the traditional PPV model - which reportedly earned him well over $20 million for each of the aforementioned fights - to sign a 5-year, 11-fight contract worth at least $365 million with sports streaming service DAZN, the largest contract for a single athlete in sports history. Canelo's fight this Saturday vs. WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding will be Canelo's first fight since signing that contract and will be the first PPV-level fight DAZN has ever produced in the United States.

Right now, Canelo is on top of the boxing world. He's arguably the most popular fighter in the sport. He's coming off of the most high profile, biggest fight of the year and what was by far the biggest win of his career in his majority decision upset victory over at-the-time undefeated and Ring Magazine #1 pound-for-pound-ranked unified middleweight champion Golovkin - a fight in which Canelo secured his status as a Mexican boxing legend and future first ballot hall-of-famer. Although the scoring of the fight was highly controversial - most observers felt the fight was either a draw or that Canelo lost a close decision - Canelo's impressive performance largely cooled previous rampant suspicions of illegal performance-enhancing drug use by the Mexican fighter as he tested clean numerous times in the days and weeks leading up to the fight.

At just 28 years old, Canelo is still in the middle of his prime and has arguably still not yet even reached his peak as - including even both fights vs. Golovkin - Canelo has improved with each fight since his lone loss in 2013 to Floyd Mayweather Jr. and is still seemingly getting better. Canelo is currently the Ring Magazine #3 ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world but on Saturday night will make his claim as #1 as he moves up to super middleweight to fight at 168 lbs for the first time in his career in an attempt to become the fifth Mexican fighter win a major world title in at least 3 weight divisions (Julio Cesar Chavez Sr., Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Jorge Arce).

Canelo will be making his debut on DAZN this Saturday night at Madison Square Garden vs. current WBA (Regular) super middleweight champion Rocky Fielding. Rocky is a British fighter who will be making his first defense of his super middleweight title after upsetting formerly undefeated champion Tyron Zeuge by 5th-round TKO in Zeuge's home country of Germany this past July. (Rocky entered the fight vs. Zeuge at as high as a 5-1 underdog.)

Rocky lacks experience, having not fought many top-level boxers other than Callum Smith - who he lost to in 2015 by 1st-round TKO. But since the loss to Smith - the only loss of his career - Rocky has been on a 3-year, 6-fight winning streak which included the title win over Zeuge and a win over well-respected British fighter John Ryder. Rocky, who has fought multiple times in his career as high as light heavyweight (178 lbs), has a 4.5" reach advantage over Canelo and is also expected to come into Saturday night's fight with a considerable size advantage.

Canelo vs. Rocky will be Canelo's first fight in New York City (and on the entire East Coast after several fights in the U.S. in Las Vegas, Texas, and Los Angeles) and will be Rocky's first fight outside of Europe (and only his second fight outside of his home country of England).

It's worth noting that Saturday night's fight is for the WBA "Regular" super middleweight championship. The WBA "Super" super middleweight championship is currently held by Callum Smith (who - as noted above - beat Fielding in 2015 by 1st-round TKO). Smith beat George Groves (by 7th-round KO) this past September in the World Boxing Super Series final to win the "Super" version of the WBA super middleweight championship.

Prefight Analysis

As an overwhelming (1-16) favorite who just two months ago signed the richest contract in the history of sports, it should be no surprise that I'm going with Canelo to win Saturday night's fight (and win convincingly).

But Rocky could make this fight tougher than expected. As a natural super middleweight who's even spent some of his career as a light heavyweight, Rocky will come into this fight with an advantage in size combined with respectable enough power to make things tough for Canelo, particularly in the early rounds. (With a 52% TKO/KO percentage, Rocky has knocked out most of the opponents he's faced - all of whom were bigger than Canelo in terms of size.) Rocky has above average combination punching skills and won't be afraid to trade punches with a smaller Canelo. For a super middleweight, Rocky moves well and has the ability to box while backing up, which should open up counterpunching opportunities when Canelo comes forward. Rocky will also come into Saturday's fight with a significant (4.5") reach advantage which - if combined with effective enough movement - could stymie Canelo's aggression.

Note that this is the 3rd consecutive week where the underdog in a high-profile fight will come into the ring with a size, height (Rocky is listed at 6'1" compared to Canelo at 5'8"), and reach advantage, complimented with an ability to move well. (Jose Pedraza last week vs. Vasyl Lomachenko and Tyson Fury the week before that vs. Deontay Wilder.) These qualities enabled the underdog in each of these fights to go the 12-round distance despite a loss by knockout being regarded as the most likely outcome.

Although limited athletically, Rocky has a versatile skill set and the fact is he did just a few months ago beat a heavily favored, undefeated world champion in that champion's home country to win his first title. Saturday night will be (by far) the biggest fight of Rocky's career and possibly even the most important night of his whole life - there is little question he will come to fight and lay it all on the line. Last year, Canelo looked impressive at a 164.5 lb cachet in winning a wide unanimous decision victory vs. a more talented fighter than Rocky in Chavez Jr. (none of the three judges even gave Chavez Jr. a single round). But Rocky is a bigger, tougher, more aggressive fighter than Chavez Jr. and will almost certainly put forth a greater effort than Chavez Jr. did. It shouldn't be much of a surprise at all if Rocky's size and reach in particular pose a much bigger problem than Canelo - who has fought as small as 140 lbs (super lightweight) early on in his career - ever anticipated.

But at the end of the day, Rocky I think lacks the athleticism and knockout power of elite super middleweights like Callum Smith and Gilberto Ramirez to compete with Canelo over 12 rounds. There's too much of a skill and hand speed discrepancy here - Rocky is the bigger fighter but I see Canelo wearing Rocky down and picking him apart with quick, accurate punch combinations in a similar fashion to how he picked apart Chavez Jr., who was bigger and had a better chin than Rocky. Rocky will throw more punches than Chavez Jr. did, but I only see that making Rocky - who has a habit of keeping his hands down after throwing punch combinations - even more susceptible to clean counterpunching.

Although only 28 years old, Canelo has the advantage of a wealth of experience vs. elite opponents and has fought against just about every style of fighter possible. Rocky is versatile, but is a straightforward, British domestic-level boxer lacking the elite-level skills of fighters like Erislandy Lara, Mayweather, and Golovkin that have given Canelo problems in previous fights.

Rocky doesn't have anything that Canelo hasn't already seen; his size, reach, and movement could be a challenge for Canelo in the early rounds but his lack of athleticism, speed, and real knockout power should make it not too difficult for Canelo to adjust and figure out the timing of the British champion both offensively and defensively.

I see Canelo being somewhat cautious and patient early vs. a bigger super middleweight, but like him to either stop Rocky in the later rounds or win a wide unanimous decision. While I think a stoppage might be slightly more likely, I think both outcomes have a similar chance of occurring so will be placing an equal stake on each outcome. I will be attending this fight and looking forward to the action and seeing in person how well DAZN does with their first big fight in the United States!

Prediction: Canelo to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Canelo by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit)
2) Canelo by unanimous decision (.5 unit)

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Lomachenko vs. Pedraza: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-12-07T20:11:00.000-05:00

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Fight: Vasyl Lomachenko (11-1, 9 KOs) vs. Jose Pedraza (25-1, 12 KOs)
Location: The Theater at Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
Date: December 8, 2018
Weight class: Lightweight (135 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World and WBA Super World lightweight titles
TV: ESPN
Line: Lomachenko: -3700, Pedraza: +2600 (5 Dimes, 12/7/18)
Purse: Lomachenko: $1 million, Pedraza: $350,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lomachenko: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/Ring Magazine lightweight champion, Pedraza: #3 ranked lightweight
Style: Lomachenko: Southpaw, Pedraza: Orthodox
Referee: Harvey Dock

Why you should watch this fight

Despite recent impressive wins by Canelo Alvarez and Oleksandr Usyk that moved them up the pound-for-pound rankings, the two fighters most frequently touted as pound-for-pound the best fighters in the sport of boxing are Vasyl Lomachenko and Terence Crawford. Crawford, an undefeated welterweight who - like Lomachenko is promoted by Bob Arum's Top Rank Boxing promotional company - staked his claim this past October as the top boxer in the sport with an impressive 12th-round TKO victory over a then-undefeated, highly-touted fighter in Jose Benavidez Jr.

Lomachenko - who is currently rated as the #1 fighter in the sport by both Ring Magazine and ESPN - is coming off of one of the better performances of his career this past May with a 10th round TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title, making him the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win major titles in three weight classes (doing so after only 12 professional fights). Lomachenko is looking to top Crawford's performance this past October Saturday night in a unification title fight vs. WBO lightweight champion Jose Pedraza, a Puerto Rican fighter who should have ample crowd support within the confines of Madison Square Garden in New York City - the city with the largest population of Puerto Ricans in the world.

Pedraza - who represented Puerto Rico as a lightweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing - is a crafty, defensively-solid fighter who moves well on his feet and can fight from either the orthodox or southpaw stance. Pedraza doesn't quite have the technical skills or power of Lomachenko's previous opponent (Linares) but he will enjoy a 5.5" reach advantage coming into Saturday night's fight and is a more natural lightweight than Lomachenko, who will be fighting at lightweight for just the second time in his professional career. Pedraza was stopped nearly two years ago in his final fight as a super featherweight (130 lbs) by a 22-year old Gervonta Davis - in what has been the only loss of his career - but has won three straight unanimous decision since then after moving up to lightweight, including a unanimous decision over Raymundo Beltran in his last fight for the WBO lightweight title.

Lomachenko, a two-time Olympic gold medalist who has arguably had the greatest amateur career in the history of boxing (highlighted by those two Olympic gold medals and a career amateur record of 396-1), is a historically great talent who - after only 12 professional fights - is already a lock for the hall-of-fame. The question now is whether he will continue to live up to the hype as possibly the best fighter in the sport today - and possibly the best fighter of the post-Mayweather era. Lomachenko has won his last eight fights by stoppage; Saturday night's fight vs. a lightweight champion in Pedraza -who has been stopped in the past by a possible future Lomachenko opponent in Gervonta Davis - will be the latest gauge of Lomachenko's greatness.

Prefight Analysis

So this fight doesn't require much extended analysis. Lomachenko is (by far) the heaviest favorite I've done a prediction for (a 1-37 favorite at the time of this writing), so there should be no surprise that I'm taking him to win (and win convincingly).

I mean there's probably at least some value in taking a one-loss champion with very solid, world-class skills in Pedraza at massive 26-1 odds. Pedraza will actually come into tomorrow night's fight with some of the same qualities Tyson Fury possessed in last week's classic heavyweight title fight with Deontay Wilder (which most felt Fury won as an underdog). Like Fury, Pedraza is essentially an ambidextrous boxer who can frustrate any opponent by giving different looks from both the orthodox and southpaw stances. Like Fury, Pedraza is an at times awkward fighter adept at throwing punches from unorthodox angles. Like Fury, Pedraza comes into this fight with a reach advantage (a significant 5.5" reach advantage over Lomachenko in tomorrow night's fight) and moves very well on his feet, which should give Pedraza some ability to elude Lomachenko's attack (as prodigious as his attack may be) from distance. And like Fury, Pedraza is the slightly taller, naturally bigger fighter so might be able to use his size advantage combined with quick hand speed to make the fight physically difficult for Lomachenko on the inside.

Pedraza - as he showed in his most recent fight vs. Beltran and even in the only loss of his career vs. Davis - is a very tough fighter who I think could give Lomachenko problems for a few rounds with his versatility, movement, and ability to throw punches from unpredictable angles (and in this fight potentially throw those punches from distance given his significant reach advantage). It's also essential to point out that tomorrow night's fight will be Lomachenko's first fight after a shoulder surgery in late May to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder. (Lomachenko injured the shoulder in the second round of his last fight vs. Linares which affected his performance throughout the rest of the fight.)

But unless Lomachenko suffers another freak injury - as with every fighter Lomachenko has faced since his 2014 loss to Orlando Salido in only his second fight as a pro - the talent gap between Lomachenko and Pedraza will be too much for Pedraza to overcome. Despite his savvy and legitimate world-class skills, the rub with Pedraza is that he doesn't have the punching power or athleticism Linares did in his fight with Lomachenko (which was very competitive) to keep Lomachenko honest and ward off his attack into the middle and late rounds.

I think as the fight progresses, Lomachenko will get to a point where he is able to stalk and apply effective pressure at will, eventually figuring out the timing on the at-times elusive and tricky Puerto Rican for a late stoppage victory. Pedraza is a tough, crafty, two-time world champion who will have some decent crowd support from what should be a decent-sized Puerto Rican contingent at Madison Square Garden tomorrow night. I expect him to eventually try to stand in close and exchange but Lomachenko is too elusive with his footwork on defense and accurate with his punch combinations offensively; he'll frustrate Pedraza and accumulate enough punches to most likely earn a stoppage in the later rounds, though there is a chance the fight goes the distance for a wide Lomachenko decision if Loma can't get the stoppage late.

Pedraza is a nice B+-level fighter and a worthy world champion but will be overmatched by Lomachenko's A+-level footwork and overall skills (as all recent Lomachenko opponents have been). Barring another injury, tomorrow night should be yet another dominant performance by Lomachenko in his quest to go down as one of the all-time greats in this history of the sport.

Prediction: Lomachenko by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Lomachenko by TKO/KO in rounds 7-12 (.5 unit)

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Wilder vs. Fury: prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-12-01T14:14:00.000-05:00

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (40-0, 39 KOs) vs. Tyson Fury (27-0, 19 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: December 1, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime PPV
Line: Wilder: -155, Fury: +145 (5 Dimes, 12/1/18)
Purses: Wilder: $4 million, Fury: $3 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Fury: #7 ranked heavyweight
Style: Fury: Orthodox, Wilder: Orthodox
Referee: Jack Reiss

Why you should watch this fight

Wilder vs. Fury is one of the most anticipated fights of the year - an intriguing matchup between two elite heavyweights with a combined record of 67-0 and 58 KOs for the WBC heavyweight title currently held by Wilder. The winner of this fight will be in line for a possible unification superfight with undefeated IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua in 2019 in a fight that may result in the first undisputed heavyweight champion since Lennox Lewis in 2000.

Wilder vs. Fury will be the first heavyweight fight in the U.S. carried as a pay-per-view since Mike Tyson's last fight vs. Kevin McBride in 2005.

Deontay Wilder and Tyson Fury have similar gregarious, charismatic personalities but have contrasting boxing styles. Wilder - who is coming off of what might have been the best fight of the year thus far in his thrilling TKO victory over Luis Ortiz this past March - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career, relying nearly entirely on the brute, raw knockout power he possesses in both hands (particularly his devastating right hand, which has been the impetus for most of his knockouts). With previously undefeated mega-power punchers Sergei Kovalev and, more recently, Gennady Golovkin suffering losses over the past couple of years, Wilder - with a historically impressive knockout percentage of 98% over 40 career fights - is now widely considered to be the top knockout artist in the sport.

Fury, on the other hand, is perhaps the most all-around skilled boxer in the heavyweight division, having relied much less on power and more on his high boxing IQ and savvy to decisively outbox or stop every opponent he's faced in his boxing career. Despite being 6'9" and over 250 pounds, Fury moves extremely well for his size and is deceptively elusive on defense. Offensively, Fury possesses an awkward style from range (behind an 85" reach) featuring generally accurate punches from often unpredictable angles that perplexes many of his opponents, as well as an ability to box skillfully on the inside.

Whatever advantages Wilder possesses coming into this fight in terms of punching power and athleticism, Fury has comparable advantages in terms of technique and pure boxing skills.

Although Fury has fought twice this year, both fights were "tune-up" fights against inferior, C-level opponents; Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive fight since his unanimous decision victory three years ago (November 2015) vs. Wladimir Klitschko. Since that fight with Klitschko, Fury announced his retirement from boxing and, shortly thereafter, experienced drug, alcohol, and mental health issues. During his retirement, Fury's weight ballooned to over 400 pounds; he's had to lose around 150 pounds over the past year to get back into top-level fighting shape.

Wilder vs. Fury is taking place at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. This will be the first fight promoted by Al Haymon's Premier Boxing Champions series to air on pay-per-view.

Why Deontay Wilder will win

Record of accomplishments: Wilder is the current WBC heavyweight champion, having held the title for nearly four years after a wide unanimous decision victory vs. Bermane Stiverne in January 2015. Wilder is 40-0, with 39 of those wins (98%) coming by knockout; the lone decision of Wilder's career came in the aforementioned unanimous decision victory vs. Stiverne. Wilder scored a 1st round KO victory vs. Stiverne in their rematch last year; with that knockout victory over Stiverne, Wilder has knocked out each of the 39 opponents he's faced in his professional career. A former football player (at the tight end position) in high school, Wilder didn't start boxing until he was 20 years old. But Wilder rose through the ranks quickly, winning the National Golden Gloves and U.S. national amateur heavyweight championships in 2007 - less than two years after he started boxing. The following year, Wilder earned a bronze medal as a heavyweight at the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Tonight, Wilder will be making his eighth consecutive title defense of his heavyweight belt.

Advantages in power and athleticism: Wilder has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career (39 opponents in 40 fights) behind legitimate one-punch knockout power in both hands - especially his right hand which he uses to throw his favorite and most lethal punch, the overhand right. Wilder's punching power is arguably the most effective and sudden game changer in all of professional sports, on multiple occasions turning what were close and competitive fights into knockout victories (see Wilder's last fight vs. Ortiz and his recent fights vs. Gerald Washington and Artur Spilka).

With 19 KO victories in 27 fights (70% wins by TKO/KO), Fury has respectable punching power but doesn't have power comparable to Wilder and has less power than even Wilder's two most recent opponents (Ortiz and Stiverne). Fury's relative lack of sudden power should enable Wilder to take more chances and be more aggressive in certain spots than he was in the Ortiz and Stiverne fights. Fury is undefeated and elusive defensively, but he actually has been knocked down early by a smaller heavyweight with considerably less punching power than Wilder (2nd round of Fury's April 2013 fight vs. Steve Cunningham). If a small heavyweight with a career TKO/KO percentage of 33% who actually fought the majority of his career at cruiserweight (maximum weight of 200 lbs) can knock Fury down, one could surmise that the top knockout artist in the heavyweight division (and perhaps the entire sport of boxing) in Wilder should have a much easier time putting Fury on the canvas.

A former football, basketball, baseball, and track athlete in high school, Wilder is a superior athlete to Fury. Fury is bigger, moves well, and has very good positional footwork for his size but Wilder is the stronger, quicker, and faster fighter. It also doesn't help that Fury comes into this fight with questionable conditioning. An eye test suggests that Fury's gotten himself back in world-class shape but Fury hasn't fought a meaningful, competitive opponent in three years (both of his opponents since coming out of retirement were 16-1 underdog, C-level fighters) and he weighed over 400 lbs as recently as last year. It is more likely than not that Fury's years away from meaningful competition and significant weight fluctuation since his retirement have had more of a negative than positive effect on his boxing abilities.

Aggressive, yet cautious: Wilder has a reputation of being overly aggressive, likely because of his at-times off-balance, wild swinging punches. But he actually more frequently employs a more cautious form of aggression - particularly in the early rounds of fights - behind foot movement and a long (83" reach) jab. As shown in his fight vs. Ortiz and first fight vs. Stiverne, Wilder is more than capable of being patient behind his jab and waiting for a decent opportunity to strike. At least early on, I suspect he'll utilize a similar strategy vs. Fury, staying behind his jab and not allowing the best counter puncher he's faced thus far in his career in Fury catch him out of position. With that said, Fury doesn't have the power of Ortiz or Stiverne and his physical conditioning is still a question, so I do expect Wilder to take more chances and increase his aggression as the fight progresses.

More heart/mentally stronger: Wilder - who will be making his eighth title defense tonight - is a confident, hungry fighter with a strong desire to be remembered down the road as one of the all-time great heavyweights. Compare that mentality with Fury, who retired, briefly un-retired, and then retired again after winning his first heavyweight title in 2015 vs. Klitschko. (Fury did not fight again for 2.5 years after winning the title vs. Klitschko.) Fury was scheduled to fight Klitschko again in a July 2016 rematch, but the rematch was postponed multiple times due to an ankle injury and multiple failed drug tests suffered by Fury. Fury ultimately vacated his title belts and retired from boxing citing mental health, drug, and alcohol issues.

One can surmise from evaluating their paths to Saturday's fight that Wilder is the more mentally stable fighter with superior determination and focus. Wilder showed impressive heart and determination in a fight-of-the-year candidate earlier this year vs. Ortiz, getting outboxed and nearly stopped in the 7th round of that fight before finding a way knock Ortiz down twice to win by stoppage in the 10th round. Three months after Wilder vs. Ortiz, Fury came out of retirement to fight Sefer Seferi, a farcical fight that involved quite a bit of clowning around and smiling by both fighters, and even a kiss on the lips prior to the first bell.

Fury will no doubt take Saturday's fight more seriously, but Wilder definitely strikes me as the more serious, mentally tougher fighter which could go along way towards overcoming Fury's advantages in size and technical skill.

Recent ring activity: Wilder has obviously been much more active than the recently un-retired Fury in recent years, having fought five times since Fury fought Klitschko in 2015 - mostly vs. respectable, top 20 heavyweights. His most recent fight was against a fighter in Ortiz that some rated (and perhaps even still rate) as high as a top 2 or 3 heavyweight in the world.

As mentioned previously, Fury has fought just twice since coming out of retirement this year, both "tune-up" fights vs. no-name, C-level opponents. Fury hasn't fought an elite opponent since defeating Klitschko three years ago and has undergone extensive treatment for substance abuse since then. Ring rust, the effort to overcome substance abuse issues, as well as the effort Fury had to make to lose approximately 150 lbs over the past year to get back into top-level shape might all crash down on Fury coming into the fight vs. Wilder and result in a poorer-than-expected performance later tonight.

Home country advantage: With this fight taking place in Los Angeles, Wilder is fighting 2,000 miles from his hometown of Tuscaloosa, Alabama and 2,800 miles from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York - where he's fought three out of his last five fights and developed a solid East Coast fan base. Although Wilder is headlining a boxing card on the West Coast for the first time in his career, he is fighting in his home country vs. a somewhat controversial, at-times obnoxious fighter from the United Kingdom in Fury. The charismatic, entertaining fighter from Alabama is expected to be a strong crowd favorite - which may influence the action inside the ring and perhaps even influence the judges on the outside.

Wilder has arguably been the beneficiary of favorable scoring in recent fights. Three of Wilder's last five fights - vs. Ortiz, Washington, and Szpilka - somewhat surprisingly had Wilder tied or ahead on the scorecards at the time of stoppage when it could easily be argued he should've been behind on the cards. (I had Wilder behind in the Ortiz and Washington fights at the time of stoppage.)

Why Tyson Fury will win

Record of accomplishments: Fury is a former unified IBF, WBA, and WBO heavyweight champion of the world, having won those titles in 2015 by beating Wladimir Klitschko - who until that point had been on an 11-year, 22-fight winning streak. In winning that fight vs. Klitschko, Fury also became the lineal heavyweight champion, a title Fury still claims today as no one has beaten him since the Klitschko fight.

Like Wilder, Fury is undefeated (27-0) with 19 of those wins coming via TKO/KO. Although he's been knocked down once in his career (in 2013 vs. Cunningham, a fight he would later come back to win in the middle rounds by stoppage) he's never truly been tested in his pro, winning all of his fights either by stoppage or clear unanimous decision. The most impressive win of Fury's career was his wide unanimous decision victory vs. Klitschko, beating the future first ballot hall-of-famer as a 3.5-1 underdog in the Klitschko-friendly confines of Germany, where Klitschko fought most of the fights in his professional career (50 out of 69 fights).

Fury is of Irish Traveller (Gypsy) heritage and comes from a long family line (reported to be 10 generations) of bare-knuckle fighters and traditional boxers. (Bare-knuckle fighting has long been a popular tradition within Gypsy culture.)

Advantage in skill: In terms of technical skills, Fury is a (far) superior boxer to Wilder. At 6'9", 250+ pounds Fury has excellent dexterity, as well as very good head and foot movement for his size. Fury is perhaps the most versatile heavyweight we've seen in some years - he can box from an orthodox or southpaw stance, from range or from close distance, and coming forward as the aggressor or moving backwards as a counterpuncher. Fury's at-times constant movement makes him hard to hit and allows him to throw punches from unpredictable, awkward angles that are difficult for his opponents to anticipate. His skills are complemented with very respectable (and generally accurate) punching power, as he's won 70% of his fights by TKO/KO.

Even after his extended layoff, Fury is arguably still the most skilled heavyweight in boxing and will be the most skilled boxer Wilder has faced in his career - even more so that Ortiz, who outboxed Wilder for most of their fight before getting stopped late. Fury doesn't have Ortiz's power but is younger, quicker, moves better, is a savvier counter puncher, and is more solid defensively than Ortiz.

In his last title fight, Fury decisively outboxed Klitschko, who was past his prime but hadn't been beaten in 11 years and was known for being one of the most technically skilled heavyweights of this generation. Klitschko went on 1.5 years later in his next fight to knock down and nearly stop UK boxing superstar Anthony Joshua, who is undefeated and widely considered the #1 heavyweight in the world. Fury did not have any of the problems Joshua had with Klitschko, barely getting touched and winning nearly all of the early rounds comfortably before coasting in the later rounds to win a clear decision.

If a less-skilled, still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder can't get to Fury with his power and tonight's fight becomes a pure boxing match, Fury will almost certainly win a wide decision more convincingly than he did vs. Klitschko. Given Wilder's at-times undisciplined, "swinging" power punching motions which sometimes leave him open to clean counters, one also can't discount the possibility that Fury even stops him in the later rounds.

Advantages in size and reach: A key advantage Wilder has enjoyed in pretty much every fight of his career is his 83" reach. Wilder typically sets up his attack behind a jab that is longer than his opponent's, which allows him to mix in knockout power punches from distance without always having to worry about clean counters (since opponents with a shorter reach usually can't attack him as effectively from distance). But, with an 85" reach, Fury might be the first boxer Wilder has faced with a reach advantage over him. Fury beat a highly-skilled Klitschko largely utilizing his reach advantage and movement to elude Klitschko's jab and power attack; he could very easily utilize a similar reach advantage to outbox a fighter in Wilder who doesn't have near the experience or savvy Klitschko did.

Wilder is also still unproven as an inside fighter, actually having struggled from close distance vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's fights vs. Washington, Spilka, and Eric Molina). Fury is a skilled inside fighter with sharper instincts and greater accuracy from close range. Do not be surprised if, in some spots, Fury uses his 40+ pound weight advantage and superior boxing ability on the inside to score points and smother Wilder's punching power.

Prefight Analysis

If I knew with certainty that we'll see the same version of Fury tonight that we saw prior to his retirement in 2016, I'd take Fury to win this fight easily without even thinking about it. I've always rated Fury very highly; in my opinion, a prime Tyson Fury is the most skilled heavyweight since Lennox Lewis, who was the best heavyweight of this generation. I favor the skills of a prime Fury even over a prime Wladimir Klitschko; a more disciplined, mentally stable Fury I think could've had a better career than the legendary Ukrainian.

Fury is the one fighter at heavyweight who has the reach to neutralize Wilder's jab. Fury also has the skills to elude Wilder's rangy power with his savvy, deceptively quick head movement and footwork. Again, Fury is a guy who - as a significant underdog - easily outboxed one of the all-time great heavyweights in Klitschko in Klitschko's adopted home of Germany. If Wilder can't reach Fury with his power Fury, in my opinion, is a near certainty to outbox a decidedly less-skilled fighter in Wilder, who has actually already been outboxed by many of the better heavyweights he's fought in recent years (Ortiz, Washington, Szpilka).

Beyond his long jab and power right hand, Wilder is somewhat limited in terms of pure skills. If tonight we get a Fury that's anything close to the level of pre-retirement Fury, I think Fury probably wins a wide decision (even wider than his win vs. Klitschko) or even stops Wilder in the late rounds.
Really, this fight mostly boils down to which version of Fury we see tonight; honestly, this is nearly impossible to predict given Fury's recent 2.5-year layoff from the sport and the mental health, substance abuse, and weight issues he dealt with during his time outside of the ring. I could be (way) wrong but I lean towards the thinking that Fury is making a serious mistake jumping in only a few months after returning from retirement to fight an elite, more athletic heavyweight with historically great punching power like Wilder. I see years of ring rust (discounting Fury's two recent fights vs. C-level opponents, where ring rust was clearly evident), deteriorated conditioning, and Fury's still-questionable mental stability not faring well vs. Wilder's confident determination, superior athleticism, and power - even with Fury's still considerable advantage in skill.

If Fury had given himself more time to tune-up vs. better competition prior to taking this fight I'd give him a much better chance to win but from what I've seen in his last two fights the ring rust is still there - he's not quite as quick or accurate as he was pre-retirement. I don't think Fury is quite ready yet to fight Wilder (or any of the other elite heavyweights for that matter).

While I see Wilder being a bit patient early in an effort to establish his jab and gauge Fury from distance, I think by far the most likely outcome of this fight is Wilder by TKO/KO, maybe even in the early to middle rounds. Wilder by TKO/KO - which can currently be found at roughly even money (approximately +100) odds - is the lone bet I'll be taking for this fight. In case Fury is able to find his pre-retirement form and is in better condition than I'm expecting I would strongly consider hedging any potential losses on the Wilder by TKO/KO bet with Fury to win by unanimous decision, which can currently be found at as high as +365 odds (5Dimes).

Both inside and outside the ring I fully expect tonight's fight to be a show!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Wilder by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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Canelo vs. Golovkin II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-09-15T15:44:00.000-04:00

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Fight: Saul "Canelo" Alvarez (49-1-2 34 KOs) vs. Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs)
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: September 15, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles
TV: HBO PPV
Line: Alvarez: +140, Golovkin: -150 (5 Dimes, 9/15/18)
Purse: Alvarez: $5 million, Golovkin: $5 million (guaranteed money only - both fighters stand to make substantially more based on a 55% Canelo/45% Golovkin split of PPV revenues, ticket sales, etc.)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Alvarez: Not ranked (due to PED suspension), Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound/#1 ranked middleweight
Style: Alvarez: Orthodox, Golovkin: Orthodox
Referee: Benjy Estevez

Why you should watch this fight

Because this is (by far) the most anticipated fight of the year - a surefire action-packed matchup between probably the two best middleweights in the world who also happen to be two of the best fighters in the world pound-for-pound.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Gennady Golovkin is the long-awaited rematch of a fantastic fight last year that ended in a (very) controversial draw. Most (including me, who scored the fight 8 rounds to 4 for Golovkin) felt Golovkin clearly won the fight. Earlier this year, a rematch of last year's fight was agreed to and scheduled to take place in May, but was ultimately cancelled and rescheduled for tonight due to Canelo's two failed tests for the performance-enhancing drug clenbuterol, which resulted in Canelo receiving a 6-month suspension from the Nevada Athletic Commission. (The suspension was effective beginning in February and just ended last month.)

Canelo's failed drug tests (and resulting suspension) has somewhat diminished the popularity of the wildly popular Mexican boxer - even amongst his own countrymen. The controversy surrounding the failed tests also generated significant (and very genuine) tension and dislike between Canelo and Golovkin, who were previously on relatively friendly terms. Still, Canelo is easily the top PPV attraction in boxing; despite lack of heavy promotion, last year's Canelo vs. Golovkin fight sold 1.3 million buys - the most PPV buys for a boxing match not involving Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao since Lennox Lewis vs. Mike Tyson in 2002. (Tonight's fight is widely expected to exceed the 1.3 million buys from last year's fight.) Canelo is still in the middle of his prime - with elite boxing skills to match his popularity - and still only has one loss on his record (to the undefeated and now retired Mayweather).

Canelo will be facing an aging, but still deadly Golovkin who - at 36 years old - is still arguably the best knockout artist in boxing, having just come off a 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan in his last fight this past May. Golovkin is actually the #1-ranked pound-for-pound boxer in the world by Ring Magazine and has won 34 out of his 39 fights - including 24 out of his last 26 fights - by stoppage for a KO% of 87%, the highest KO% in middleweight boxing history.

The winner of this fight will have earned what will be the most significant win of their career (a win that will likely be considered the signature win of their career years from now upon retirement) and will have a solid claim as the best fighter in the world pound-for-pound. For Golovkin this would be the best win of an already hall-of-fame career and move him further up the list of the greatest middleweights of all time. If he retires tomorrow, Canelo is already a probable hall-of-famer but a win this Saturday over an undefeated Golovkin would secure his status as a Mexican legend. A win for Canelo would also go along way towards regaining respect from the numerous boxing fans who question whether his career has been unfairly bolstered by performance-enhancing drugs (given his recent failed drug tests).

The winner of this fight could possibly be in line for a unification megafight next year with undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, who is defending his title next month in Boston vs. undefeated - and highly regarded - middleweight Demetrius Andrade.

Prefight Analysis

Last year, I picked Golovkin to win the first fight and - as many observers did - thought he won convincingly. Although Golovkin didn't knock Canelo out as I expected, I thought he was certainly the more effective aggressor; per CompuBox stats he threw and landed more punches in 10 out of 12 rounds of the fight, maintained consistent pressure behind his jab, and dominated the middle rounds when Canelo tired after a solid start in the first 3 rounds.

It would be very reasonable to think not much will change for the rematch tonight. I still think Canelo is the better-skilled boxer (as he was last year in their first fight) but the rematch - as with the first fight - still likely features a mismatch in effective power and pressure that will be difficult for Canelo to overcome. It's hard to imagine that the bigger, physically stronger, superior (and perhaps historically great) power puncher in Golovkin won't still be effective in pressuring a smaller, relatively low-volume, flat-footed fighter in Canelo despite Canelo's ring intelligence, deceptive elusiveness, and superior skill. One also needs to consider that the stamina problems that plagued Canelo in the middle rounds of his first fight with Golovkin (and have plagued him in the middle to late rounds of numerous prior fights to the extent that he often takes portions of rounds off to conserve energy) likely won't just go away for this fight - at least to some extent we should expect Canelo's notorious issues with stamina to manifest again vs. a constantly pressuring Golovkin.

Also consider that ring rust and diminished mobility may possibly be factors in tonight's rematch. Canelo has been inactive for a year - the longest layoff of his 12-year career - and is coming off a knee surgery in April for which he is still wearing a knee brace.

Golovkin is correctly graded as the favorite for the rematch. But the more I think about this fight, the more I think Canelo has a very real shot here for the upset. In general for rematches, we at least somewhat know what to expect relative to fights where fighters are facing each other for the first time. But this particular rematch is a bit different as there are numerous unknown variables and unanswered questions to consider, including:

How much has Golovkin regressed since his previous fight with Canelo? At 36 years old, Golovkin is past his prime and has shown in some recent fights - including his last fight vs. Canelo and his fight last year vs. Danny Jacobs - that he doesn't cut off the ring and pressure nearly as well as he did in his prime. In his last fight, Golovkin made quick work of Vanes Martirosyan, winning by KO in the 2nd round. But Martirosyan was a lesser-caliber opponent who was fighting on only a few weeks notice for the first time at middleweight after a two-year layoff. Canelo, on the other hand, is still in the middle of his prime and has noticeably improved with each fight since his 2013 loss to Mayweather. Canelo handled Golovkin's pressure much better than expected in their first fight; the most likely scenario would be that Canelo has an even better performance vs. a slower, aging Golovkin one year later.

Was Canelo on performance enhancing drugs for the previous fight? Canelo failed two drug tests leading up to the previously scheduled rematch date in May, testing positive for the performance enhancing drug clenbuterol. He has vehemently denied accusations of drug use, blaming the failed drug tests on tainted meat. Like most I'm highly skeptical of this denial but lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt on this one occasion. If Canelo was on performance enhancing drugs I think it will show pretty clearly by the middle rounds of the fight; if Canelo was on drugs I see the most likely outcome for this fight being a dominant Golovkin performance en route to a mid to late round stoppage. But if Canelo was clean I think the most likely outcome is an even better performance from Canelo in tonight's fight than the previous fight, especially when you consider Golovkin's recent regression and Canelo's superior boxing skills.

Will Canelo get the benefit of favorable judging in this fight (as he did the previous fight)? The judging in the first fight clearly favored Canelo with some dubious scoring, including a 118-110 (10 rounds to 2) score from judge Adelaide Byrd that even Canelo and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya) disagreed with. (Both have stated they felt Canelo won "7 or 8" rounds.) Don Trella scored the 7th round, arguably Golovkin's best round in the fight, for Canelo which resulted in him scoring the fight a draw overall. (If he'd scored that round for Golovkin as the other two judges did Golovkin would've won the fight by majority decision.) With the significant postfight controversy surrounding the scoring (which resulted in Byrd being temporarily benched from judging by the Nevada Athletic Commission and removed from judging any major fights since) one has to wonder where the scoring bias is more likely to lie in tonight's fight. On the one hand, the judges scoring the fight might be sensitive to the previous controversy and feel pressure to be fair towards Golovkin to the extent that they give him the benefit of the doubt in close rounds and are actually biased in his favor. On the other hand, we could conceivably see a repeat of questionable judging in the more politically connected, "A-side" Canelo's favor - especially given that the crowd at T-Mobile in Las Vegas is expected to be pro-Canelo. It does seem Canelo has received very favorable scoring in most of his fights over the past few years, including a couple of controversial decision victories vs. Erislandy Lara and Austin Trout, as well as his loss to Mayweather where one judge scored the fight a draw (despite most observers seeing the fight as a wide decision victory for Mayweather). To be fair, Canelo - while generally deliberate and patient - has a judge-friendly style featuring showy, accurate, clean power punches that are easier for judges to score. (Canelo landed most of the flashy, "highlight" punches in the first fight with Golovkin.)

How will Canelo's leaner physique affect the fight? In preparing for the rematch it appears Canelo has targeted a smaller, less muscular physique than he had in the first fight. One can surmise that he likely won't have as much punching power, thus will be less likely of a threat to hurt or knockout Golovkin in the rematch. But there is a good chance Canelo's leaner physique also results in improved mobility, elusiveness, and speed which could make his counterpunching more effective. The leaner physique may also result in improved stamina, which could be critical as Canelo's relative lack of work rate and energy in the middle rounds was one of the primary reasons he didn't get the decision victory in the first fight.

I thought Golovkin very clearly won the first fight (and was rooting for him to win that fight) but came away more impressed by how Canelo performed. I expected Golovkin to win by knockout but Canelo was able to elude Golovkin's power for most of the fight (never even coming close to being either knocked down or stopped, which has been the fate of every Golovkin opponent in recent years) and was able to consistently outbox Golovkin on the inside with savvy counterpunching. When Canelo tired in the middle rounds he was dominated, but when he had energy and was trading punches with Golovkin in the early and later rounds he arguably got the better of most of those exchanges. Canelo's counterpunching to the body in particular made a typically aggressive, punch-happy Golovkin more reluctant than usual to throw his own power punches.

While I thought Golovkin was clearly the more aggressive and effective puncher over the whole course of the first fight (which I thought won him the fight), I also came away from the fight with the impression that Canelo was clearly the more skilled boxer, with superior movement, speed, and counterpunching ability. For me, Canelo's draw with Golovkin was arguably as impressive as any fight that Canelo has actually won.

For these reasons, I think the best value on this fight is Canelo to win by decision at +200 or above. All variables considered, I'd grade Golovkin at 55-60% to win tonight's fight but the fact is, Golovkin's effective pressure - including his ability to cut off the ring - has noticeably deteriorated in recent fights (including the first fight with Canelo). A year after that fight, I expect the ability of an aging, past-prime Golovkin to effectively pressure his opponent to further diminish. On the other side I see Canelo - who is still in his prime - making adjustments to mitigate Golovkin's pressure and counter even more effectively than he did in the previous fight. One key adjustment is the leaner physique; what Canelo may lose in punching power and strength from the less muscular frame he may gain in stamina, elusiveness, and the ability to be a more high-volume counterpuncher.

Canelo is a high IQ fighter who takes his craft very seriously and over the years seems to have improved with each fight. I think in front of a mostly pro-Canelo crowd in Las Vegas with something to prove after the drug accusations that have (rightly or wrongly) tarnished his reputation, there is a good chance he puts on perhaps the most impressive performance of his career and beats Golovkin in a competitive but clear decision victory. Note that it is typically the more skilled boxer who makes the necessary adjustments and has the better performance in a rematch; I see that being the case for tonight's fight. As hyped as Canelo is, I actually feel that in terms of pure boxing skill, he is actually still a somewhat underrated boxer who put on maybe the best performance in his career in getting the draw vs. Golovkin - a fight which I felt Canelo lost. I see him putting on an even better performance - perhaps vs. an overeager Golovkin trying too hard for the knockout - and getting the win tonight.

A victory by Canelo against Golovkin instantly puts him on the same level as recent Mexican legends like Juan Manuel Marquez, Marco Antonio Barrera, and Erik Morales; I think there's a decent chance we see it happen this Mexican Independence Day weekend.

I will be at the fight and am looking forward to seeing what happens!

Prediction: Golovkin to win

Recommended bet: Canelo by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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Danny Garcia vs. Shawn Porter: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-09-08T01:04:00.001-04:00

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Fight: Danny Garcia (34-1, 20 KOs) vs. Shawn Porter (28-2-1, 17 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: September 8, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World welterweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -150, Porter +140 (5 Dimes, 9/8/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #6 ranked welterweight, Porter: #4 ranked welterweight
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Porter: Orthodox
Referee: Steve Willis

Why you should watch this fight

There's a general consensus on who the cream of the crop fighters are in the welterweight division. Most feel Terence Crawford and Errol Spence - both currently rated amongst the top 10 boxers in the sport by Ring Magazine - are the two best fighters at welterweight right now. Keith Thurman - an undefeated, former unified (and current WBA) welterweight champion who beat both Garcia and Porter in (very) closely-contested decisions - is also up there near the top, though is understandably not quite as highly regarded at this point due to a 1.5-year absence from the ring following his split decision victory vs. Garcia last year. (An elbow surgery last year and injury to his left hand earlier this year have postponed his return to the ring.) Some (including myself) might even still throw Manny Pacquiao into this mix after his recent, impressive 7th-round TKO victory vs. Lucas Matthysse for a version of the WBA world title, his first victory by stoppage since 2009 vs. Miguel Cotto.

Prior to their losses to Thurman, Danny Garcia and Shawn Porter were both considered amongst the very elite of welterweights with each having a small case as being the top fighter at 147 lbs. The winner of Saturday's fight will win the WBC welterweight title Thurman vacated this April and be in line for a unification fight with IBF welterweight champion (and fellow Premier Boxing Champions fighter) Spence in early 2019, where Garcia or Porter - with a victory vs. Spence - can reclaim their status as arguably the best fighter in the welterweight division.

The loser of this fight will still be regarded by most as one of the better welterweights in the sport and will still be in line for solid paydays in future matchups, but will likely never get back to the very top of the division after yet another loss to a top opponent.

Prefight Analysis

On paper, Garcia vs. Porter is a fairly even matchup. It's certainly an interesting style clash featuring two different forms of aggression - an aggressive, yet patient fighter in Garcia who relies primarily on timely counterpunching from mid-range distance vs. a sometimes hyper-aggressive fighter in Porter who often overwhelms his opponents with brute force and pressure on the inside.

I can see why Garcia is considered the slight favorite. Garcia is the better pure boxer in this matchup. He has better overall boxing skills, is the more accurate puncher, is more responsible defensively, and has higher boxing IQ (which makes him more capable of correct technical adjustments over the course of a fight). Although Garcia isn't as physically strong as Porter, he actually has superior punching power to Porter in both hands, including a sneaky left hook that is rated by many as one of the best left hooks in the sport. Garcia possesses a patient, counterpunching style that's well-suited to land solid, clean power punches vs. Porter's at-times reckless ambush attacks.

Porter is typically able to outwork and dominate counter punchers that have a relatively low work rate (most notably Adrien Broner who he defeated by wide unanimous decision in 2015) but Garcia, although patient, is an aggressive counterpuncher who will likely be much more willing to engage and trade punches with Porter than defensive-minded counterpunchers Porter's fought in the past like Broner.

Historically - in fights considered even matchups on paper, the more fundamentally sound fighter prevails more often than not. In this matchup, Garcia is the more fundamentally sound, traditionally-styled boxer with the skill set to counter Porter's awkward, wild-punching, brawler style that often leaves him open for clean counters. One thing not often noted about Garcia is that he has terrific - arguably Golovkin-like - balance, which is one of the reasons he has an excellent chin (considered by many to be one of the best in boxing as he's never even come close to being knocked down or knocked out in a fight as a professional). Garcia's balance is also a large part of the reason he has deceptive, yet concussive knockout power in both hands.

The crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn - less than a two-hour drive from Garcia's hometown of Philadelphia - is expected to be pro-Garcia which could influence the action inside the ring as well as the judging outside of it.

The only loss of Garcia's career was a very close, split-decision loss last year to an undefeated, at the time pound-for-pound rated Keith Thurman who beat Porter by a competitive, but unanimous decision. It's likely Garcia vs. Porter will be a similarly competitive fight and many expect that Garcia should perform at least as well vs. Porter as he did vs. Thurman.

But despite Garcia's advantages - which in my opinion include superior boxing ability - I actually favor Porter in this matchup, especially given the excellent value offered on Porter to win (+150) and Porter to win by decision (+245).

I like Porter's superior physical strength and high-energy brawler style to overwhelm Garcia's patient, relatively low-volume style, especially down the stretch. Porter is a very strong, athletic welterweight who actually fought most of his amateur career as a middleweight (and has pro experience fighting at weight classes higher than 147 lbs) and has a background as a football standout in high school (to the extent that he was awarded all-conference honors and was offered athletic scholarships to play football in college). Porter's superior strength complemented by his typically high punch rate I think will allow him to outwork a physically weaker Garcia who actually fought most of his pro career at light welterweight (140 lbs) and moved up to welterweight just two years ago. Again, I do rate Garcia as the better boxer of the two and think he has the more dangerous punching power - especially if he lands clean. But Porter is a savvy, highly-skilled boxer in his own right with underrated skills. I see Porter staying close to Garcia and exploiting his natural advantage on the inside; staying on the inside will also allow Porter to smother the punching power Garcia has from mid-range.

Keith Thurman was able to edge Porter in a close fight primarily due to solid footwork and movement, which stymied Porter's pressure. Garcia is relatively flat-footed in comparison and won't be nearly as adept in evading Porter's attack. Garcia has very good timing on his counter punches but Porter has an unpredictable, herky-jerky style featuring a variety of at-times erratic head and body feints that it may take a few rounds for Garcia to adjust to.

Even a lesser, battle-worn pressure fighter in Brandon Rios was able to give Garcia trouble in spots. Porter is a couple of levels above Rios - bigger, stronger, faster, less predictable, more physical, much more skilled, and can be just as aggressive when on the offensive. Garcia has beaten quality opponents at light welterweight and beaten better opponents than Rios at welterweight but has yet to beat an opponent nearly as good as Porter at 147 lbs.

I think Porter - especially coming into this fight as the underdog - will feel he has more to prove and that his energy, physicality, and constant punch activity will be too much for Garcia's more laid-back, low-volume approach. I'm usually partial to the fighter with superior boxing skills but in this instance, I think Porter's superior athleticism, strength, punch volume, and aggression will trump Garcia's superior boxing ability - especially considering that Porter's own boxing ability is high-level and a bit underrated.

Even if this fight were at even money I'd favor Porter but I for sure like the value on Porter as a +140 underdog. With Garcia's granite chin and cautious style, I'd grade Porter to win by decision at +200 or above as an even better bet. (I recommend placing bets on both to mitigate risk.)

I don't see either fighter beating Spence down the road but this is a solid, 50/50 matchup that I look forward to watching!

Prediction: Porter to win

Recommended bet: 1) Porter to win (.5 unit)
2) Porter wins by 12-round decision (.5 unit)

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Terence Crawford vs. Jeff Horn: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-06-09T15:59:00.001-04:00

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Fight: Terence Crawford (32-0, 23 KOs) vs. Jeff Horn (18-0,-1 12 KOs)
Location: MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World Welterweight title
TV: ESPN+
Line: Crawford -570, Horn +480 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purse: Crawford: $3 million, Horn: $1.25 million
Ring Magazine Rankings: Crawford: #3 ranked pound-for-pound, Horn: #5 ranked welterweight
Style: Crawford: Orthodox, Horn: Orthodox
Referee: Robert Byrd

Why you should watch this fight

Can Terence Crawford be the next great American boxing superstar? Crawford - the undefeated, Ring Magazine #3-rated pound-for-pound boxer - is looking to win a world title in his third weight class in his welterweight (147 lb) division debut vs. Jeff Horn, another undefeated fighter who won the WBO welterweight title last July in a highly controversial unanimous decision victory vs. boxing legend Manny Pacquiao.

Of the top-ranked fighters in boxing, there are three who have arguably separated themselves from the rest of the pack to have a reasonable claim as the best fighter in the sport: Gennady Golovkin - who is still undefeated after last year's controversial draw vs. Canelo Alvarez, is coming off a sensational 2nd-round KO victory vs. Vanes Martirosyan, and is currently on one of the great title defense runs in the history of the middleweight division; Vasyl Lomachenko - who is coming off an impressive TKO victory vs. highly regarded Jorge Linares to win the WBA lightweight title (becoming the fastest fighter in the 120+ year history of boxing to win a world title in three divisions); and Crawford, who in his last fight became the first boxer in 13 years to be undisputed champion of the world (i.e., simultaneously hold all four major world titles within a single weight division). Crawford earned his undisputed champion status in the junior welterweight (140 lb) division after defeating previously undefeated Julius Indongo to unify all four titles in the weight class.

Over the past month, both Golovkin and Lomachenko have made their case for #1 fighter in the sport with impressive knockout victories over solid opponents. Crawford is looking to similarly impress and put in his claim as the best boxer pound-for-pound this Saturday in his welterweight debut vs. Horn, a naturally bigger man than Crawford who - as Pacquiao found out in his matchup with Horn last year - is difficult to look impressive against.

On the other side of the ring Horn - a former school teacher who became a household name overnight in his home country of Australia after his shocking upset of heavy betting favorite Pacquiao - is looking to prove his win over Pacquiao (who came into last July's fight vs. Horn with much more experience at welterweight than Crawford will this Saturday) was no fluke.

Crawford vs. Horn will be the first high-profile boxing match to be televised live on ESPN's new "ESPN Plus" (ESPN+) subscription service. Will Crawford once again live up to the hype - making the biggest weight jump of his career (7 lbs) to win a title in his third weight class and stake his claim as the best fighter in the sport? Or will Jeff Horn - who opened as a 10-1 underdog and is currently graded as nearly a 5-1 underdog for Saturday's fight - shock the world again?

Prefight Analysis

This fight could very easily be tougher for Crawford than most think. Horn is the bigger fighter in this matchup - a fighter who's boxed his entire professional career at welterweight (and is generally considered a big guy within the weight class) while Crawford has fought a large part of his career two full divisions lower at lightweight. It shouldn't be overlooked here that Crawford is making the biggest weight jump of his career Saturday night to fight at welterweight for the first time in his career vs. an undefeated welterweight champion.

As he showed in his upset of Pacquiao, Horn is a tough, durable fighter at welterweight who might be able to impose his size advantage and physicality in the early rounds on a smaller Crawford who sometimes likes to exercise patience (and thus can be a slow starter) early. Horn has an awkward, "herky-jerky" style featuring deceptively quick foot movement and timely pressure that may take even a master of in-fight adjustments like Crawford a few rounds to get acclimated to. Horn also has legitimate power in his right hand that Crawford likely won't be able to just walk through (as he's done with shots from big power punchers at lower weight divisions).

Horn comes into this fight as a substantial underdog but he's is an undefeated world champion who's consistently shown the toughness and resiliency to do what he has to do to get the victory. Crawford - though a bigger-sized guy when he fought in the lightweight and junior welterweight divisions - is the naturally smaller fighter in this welterweight matchup with Horn and will be fighting at welterweight for the very first time in his career. There's a non-negligible chance that - similar to the Pacquiao fight - Horn's size advantage, physicality, and pressure will be a bit more than Crawford bargained for and overcome Crawford's clear skill and talent advantage.

But I think Horn has way too much to overcome here in this matchup (vs. arguably the best boxer in the world pound-for-pound in Crawford) to pull off the upset - in my opinion, the pick here is Crawford by TKO/KO. Yes, Horn is the bigger, typically more physical fighter and is the only fighter in this matchup with any experience at welterweight. But Crawford has the clear advantage in just about every other facet of the matchup: skills (both offensive and defensive), punch accuracy, speed, quickness, athleticism, reach, power, ring IQ, etc. There are levels to boxing - Crawford has proven multiple times that he's an A-level boxer and is currently in the prime of what will likely be a hall-of-fame career; Horn is at best a B/B+-level fighter whose best win was a highly controversial decision over a past-prime Pacquiao - a fight that most observers felt he lost.

Horn came into last year's fight vs. Pacquiao as nearly a middleweight the day of the fight and was, in many spots, successfully able to impose his size advantage and physicality on the smaller Pacquiao. Despite this, Pacquiao was able to consistently land power shots and visibly bloody Horn to the point where at the end of the 9th round the referee came over to Horn's corner and suggested the fight be stopped. One thing that saved Horn in last year's fight was Pacquiao's cautiousness; since his KO loss to Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012, Pacquiao has been noticeably less willing to take risks offensively (he hasn't stopped anyone since Marquez knocked him out) and his punch output has declined considerably.

The killer instinct that was a hallmark of prime Pacquiao has all but disappeared in recent years. Prime Crawford still has that killer instinct; you can bet he will be more aggressive in the middle to later rounds than Pacquiao was vs. Horn. Crawford does not have quite the hand speed or quickness of even a past-prime Pacquiao but he is much more accurate and crafty offensively; in the later rounds I anticipate he'll be able to land power punches almost at will vs. a tough, but defensively flawed Horn who will try to apply pressure on Crawford and thus will be open for Crawford's counterpunching. Horn can be elusive on his feet but has a "head-first" come-forward style which likely won't work well for long vs. an accurate power puncher like Crawford who will be looking to time Horn as he jumps inside to attack. Note that Horn has been knocked down in two of his last five fights and in a third fight (the fight vs. Pacquiao last year) came close to being stopped.

An overwhelming majority of the boxing press, ringside observers, and general public felt Horn lost last year in a fight vs. a past-prime, smaller fighter with declining skills in Pacquiao. In my opinion, it's highly likely he'll take a worse beating vs. a much younger, prime Crawford who has superior technical skills to Pacquiao and is eager to make his case as possibly the best boxer in the world so will actively look to be much more aggressive than Pacquiao was last year.

It's important to note that Horn got the controversial decision over Pacquiao in the city (and country) where he was born and raised (Brisbane, Australia). Saturday night he'll be fighting in Crawford's home country in front of mostly Crawford fans who - as proven in previous Crawford fights in New York City and Las Vegas - travel as well as fans of any current American fighter. I see Horn putting up a spirited effort and making the fight competitive in the early rounds before the talent and skill gap becomes apparent, leading to Crawford dominating the fight in the middle and late rounds.

I don't anticipate too much suspense in this fight but it'll be intriguing to see how Crawford performs in his welterweight debut so we can maybe better gauge how he might perform in possible superfights down the road vs. top welterweights like Errol Spence, Keith Thurman, and Danny Garcia. Or maybe Horn will show tonight that he's a top welterweight we've all been sleeping on???

Prediction: Crawford by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Crawford by TKO/KO/DQ (1 unit)

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Leo Santa Cruz vs. Aber Mares II: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-06-09T02:18:00.000-04:00

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Fight: Leo Santa Cruz (34-1-1, 19 KOs) vs. Abner Mares (31-2-1, 15 KOs)
Location: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date: June 9, 2018
Weight class: Featherweight (126 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Featherweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Santa Cruz: -570, Mares: +570 (5 Dimes, 6/9/18)
Purses: Santa Cruz: $1 million, Mares: $750,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Santa Cruz: #1 ranked featherweight, Mares: #5 ranked featherweight
Style: Santa Cruz: Orthodox, Mares: Orthodox
Referee: Thomas Taylor

Why you should watch this fight

Leo Santa Cruz vs. Abner Mares II is a rematch of a fight that exceeded the hype and was universally considered one of the best fights of 2015. The first fight was arguably a classic - one of the best fights the Premier Boxing Champions series has aired in their three years of existence. A rematch seems almost certain to please and be another fight-of-the-year candidate, especially given the classic style matchup between two elite Mexican brawlers which is expected to take place in front of an energetic, mostly Mexican-American/Mexican crowd in the heart of downtown Los Angeles.

Since beating (then undefeated) Carl Frampton for the WBA featherweight title (which avenged his own loss to Frampton in 2016, the only loss of his career), Santa Cruz has widely been considered the best featherweight in the world. This Saturday, Santa Cruz gives Mares a chance to avenge his loss in their first fight, a highly entertaining fight that ended in a close but clear majority decision victory for Santa Cruz.

After losing to Santa Cruz, Mares changed trainers, hiring the well-known Oxnard, California-based trainer Robert Garcia. Mares has looked impressive in his two fights under Garcia, winning the "regular" version of the WBA featherweight title in the process. Will Mares - who as recently as a few years ago Ring Magazine rated as high as the #5 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound - make the necessary adjustments under Garcia to avenge his loss in 2015 vs. Santa Cruz? Or will Santa Cruz get the better of Mares again in the rematch and solidify his status as the best featherweight in the world?

The winner of Saturday's fight will have the opportunity for a unification superfight with WBC featherweight champion Gary Russell Jr. (who's already indicated he'd like to fight the winner of this matchup) or possibly fight WBO interim featherweight champion Carl Frampton, who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Nonito Donaire (which would be particularly intriguing if Santa Cruz beats Mares, as it would set up a much-anticipated rubber match between the two fighters).

Prefight Analysis

Santa Cruz vs. Mares is for sure one of the better bets for 2018 Fight of the Year. This is one of those matchups that you can be almost certain will be a competitive, action-packed fight. But I do think the outcome of the fight may depend largely on Mares' approach to the fight - especially given that he's under a different trainer (Robert Garcia) than he was in his first matchup with Santa Cruz. If Mares stays aggressive, keeps the fight physical and at close range, and uses (admittedly borderline illegal) clinching effectively as he did in the first couple of rounds of his first fight vs. Santa Cruz and as he did for stretches of his last two fights vs. Jesus Cuellar and Andres Gutierrez, he has more than a reasonable chance to pull off the upset - assuming his stamina holds up and he can sustain his aggressiveness through 12 rounds.

To accompany decent power, Mares - at 32 years old - still has quicker hand speed than Santa Cruz and has the technical skills to exploit Santa Cruz's 3" height advantage and high-guard defensive posture (which should provide the shorter Mares with ample opportunities to land clean body shots if he can stay at close range vs. Santa Cruz).

Both Santa Cruz and Mares are high-volume pressure fighters but Mares is more adept at using his physicality to brawl inside. If Mares can successfully employ a rough-house attack strategy (i.e., turn this into an ugly fight), this is a fight I think he can win.

But - despite how solid Mares has looked in recent fights under Garcia - I think Santa Cruz most likely wins the rematch by decision, perhaps even more convincingly than he won the first fight. As with the first fight I see the key to Saturday's fight being Santa Cruz's more voluminous punch output combined with his superior stamina. Santa Cruz's advantages in accurate work rate and consistent energy were I think the key difference the first fight three years ago; I don't see a 32-year-old, slightly past prime Mares closing the gap in either of these areas vs. a prime Santa Cruz - if anything I expect Mares to have less stamina and have a lower work rate than he did in their first fight when Mares was closer to his prime.

I see Santa Cruz and Mares as roughly on the same level in terms of skill and power. Mares has superior hand speed and is the better fighter inside but I think Santa Cruz's stamina, consistently high work rate, and more accurate punching will overwhelm Mares in the middle to later rounds regardless of any adjustments Mares has made under Robert Garcia and regardless of whether the fight is fought from close range or from distance.

Though I think the fighters are somewhat evenly matched skill-wise, it should be noted that since his first fight with Mares, Santa Cruz has gained experience and seemingly improved in his two wars with Frampton (who is generally considered a better boxer than Mares). In his second fight vs. Frampton last year, Santa Cruz made impressive adjustments - including switching from a more aggressive, pressuring approach to utilizing his reach advantage to outbox Frampton from distance - to avenge his loss in the first fight. (An adjustment somewhat similar to the adjustments he made after the first couple of rounds in his first fight with Mares where he transitioned from trading punches with Mares on the inside to boxing more from distance.)

From his previous experience with Mares, I anticipate Santa Cruz having a better feel for how to counter Mares' aggressive, physical style and think he'll win more convincingly this time around by clear - albeit a competitive and at times thrilling - unanimous decision, if not a late stoppage.

If - at the beginning of 2018 - I was asked to pick a single fight that could be expected to live up to the hype and contend for Fight of the Year it would be this one so looking forward to seeing how the action shapes out!

Prediction: Santa Cruz by decision

Recommended bet: 1) Santa Cruz by any decision (risk 1 unit)

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Golovkin vs. Martirosyan: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-05-04T00:55:00.000-04:00

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Fight: Gennady Golovkin (37-0-1, 33 KOs) vs. Vanes Martirosyan (36-3-1, 21 KOs)
Location: StubHub Center, Carson, California
Date: May 5, 2018
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBC World middleweight and WBA Super World middleweight titles (Golovkin is also the IBF World middleweight champion but the IBF declined to sanction this fight.)
TV: HBO
Purses: Golovkin: $1 million, Martirosyan: $225,000
Line: Golovkin -2550, Martirosyan +1900 (5 Dimes, 5/4/18)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Golovkin: #1 ranked pound-for-pound, #1 ranked middleweight, Martirosyan: Not ranked
Style: Golovkin: Orthodox, Martirosyan: Orthodox

Why you should watch this fight

Gennady Golovkin was supposed to fight Mexican boxing superstar Canelo Alvarez this Saturday in Las Vegas in a rematch of their September fight (that ended in a highly entertaining, but controversial draw that most observers felt Golovkin won), but the fight was canceled after Canelo failed two drug tests in the leadup to the fight.

Despite the draw from the Canelo fight (the first blemish on Golovkin's previously perfect boxing record), Golovkin is still undefeated and still ranked by many experts - including Ring Magazine - as the #1 boxer in the sport pound-for-pound. Golovkin is still the unified WBA, WBC, and IBF middleweight champion of the world (boasting an impressive 87% KO percentage - the highest KO% in middleweight history) and still probably the most feared power puncher in the sport.

But Golovkin hasn't looked quite as invincible in recent fights vs. A-level fighters as he did in his prime vs. weaker competition. Controversy or not, Golovkin managed only a draw in his most recent fight vs. Canelo and eked out a close unanimous decision victory in his fight preceding the Canelo fight last March vs. Danny Jacobs - a fight that some observers felt he lost. (I was at this fight and - despite betting on Golovkin to win - scored it 114-113 for Jacobs.) The fights vs. both Canelo and Jacobs were somewhat surprising, much closer-than-expected results after Golovkin had won his 23 fights prior to those fights all by TKO or KO.

The fact of the matter is, Golovkin is 36-years old and past his prime, with some feeling he's (noticeably) slowed in recent years in terms of foot speed, and doesn't have quite the power he had in his prime. Saturday's fight vs. an underrated, highly skilled fighter in Vanes Martirosyan is a chance for Golovkin to prove he hasn't regressed even further after an 8-month layoff (the 2nd longest layoff of his career) and a chance to gauge whether he should still be rated the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport over the likes of rising stars such as Terence Crawford and Vasyl Lomachenko.

Martirosyan is moving up in weight from the junior middleweight (154 lb) division to fight at middleweight for the first time in his career (after a two-year layoff from the sport) and is fighting on less than three weeks notice to fight arguably the #1 boxer in the world.

But Martirosyan poses an intriguing challenge for Golovkin. Martirosyan has 3 losses in his career, but those were all close, disputed decision losses to A-level fighters in Erislandy Lara, Jermall Charlo, and Demetrius Andrade. (Andrade and Charlo are still undefeated and considered among the best in the sport pound-for-pound.)

Martirosyan has proven he has the ability to box with anyone. He's adept at fighting from distance and moves extremely well; his tricky, sometimes awkward movement combined with excellent stamina makes it difficult for anyone - even an elite power puncher like Golovkin - to land fight-stopping punches against him. (In 40 professional fights, Martirosyan has never even come close to being stopped and has only been knocked down once in his career - a flash knockdown in the 9th round of his unanimous decision victory vs. Kasim Ouma in 2010.)

Despite the public criticism of this matchup, Martirosyan is arguably one of the top four or five opponents Golovkin has faced (in terms of talent and skill) and is a solid enough boxer to be an effective gauge as to where a 36-year-old Golovkin is at in his career after two fights in which he fought well, but showed signs of slippage.

If Martirosyan - a massive 20-1 underdog in this matchup - can win this fight it would obviously be (by far) the biggest win of his career, not to mention be the biggest upset in boxing in recent memory. An upset here would turn the middleweight division - which Golovkin has dominated for most of the last decade - on its heels.

But if Golovkin looks impressive and dominates Martirosyan as expected, it further wets the appetite for a possible Canelo vs. Golovkin fight in September, a rematch of what was considered by many a classic and one of the best fights of 2017.

Prefight Analysis

I actually wouldn't be surprised if Martirosyan is competitive in this fight. Martirosyan has never been decisively beaten in his career and in 2 out of this 3 career losses (each of which came vs. A-level fighters), you could make a strong argument that Martirosyan won the fight. There's been criticism of the Golovkin/Martirosyan matchup, but Vanes is a top-level fighter in his own right who's difficult to look good against and could prove to be a tougher-than-expected test for Golovkin.

Martirosyan moves well and has slightly better hand and foot speed than Golovkin. While far from a defensive wizard, Martirosyan has enough skill and awkward elusiveness to evade Golovkin's power punching and make this a competitive fight for several rounds. Martirosyan is moving up in weight and hasn't fought in nearly two years but in terms of pure skill, I'd rate Martirosyan just below Canelo, Jacobs, and Kell Brook as probably the 4th-best fighter Golovkin has fought in his career. I would also rate Martirosyan's ability to box on the move as comparable and in some ways superior to Jacobs, who employed effective movement to give Golovkin the toughest fight of his career.

But Martirosyan is nearly a 20-1 underdog in this matchup for a reason. You can't escape the fact that
Vanes will be making his middleweight debut on less than 3 weeks notice after a 2-year layoff vs. arguably the #1 pound-for-pound fighter in the sport and arguably the #1 middleweight fighter of this generation in Golovkin. Martirosyan has never faced a fighter with power anything close to Golovkin's and I think Vanes will lose some of his elusiveness and crafty foot movement (which he would rely on to evade that power) at the higher weight. And although Martirosyan is a fighter who moves well, he's a scrappy fighter at heart who's shown in previous fights a willingness to stay in the pocket and trade punches from close distance - at trait which will likely work against him if he decides to trade vs. a historically great power puncher like Golovkin.

Note that Golovkin will be able to stay aggressive and take more risks vs. Martirosyan - a natural 154-lber who doesn't have the knockout power of a Canelo or Jacobs, both of whom Golovkin had to at times box cautiously against (as respect to their power).

Skillwise, I think Golovkin and Martirosyan are comparable but there will be a clear advantage in terms of size, power, and experience at middleweight for Golovkin in this matchup. Martirosyan is a game fighter who I think is underrated by most. But if you combine the size and power advantages here with the ring rust resulting from Vanes having been out of the ring for nearly two years, I think we'll see a fairly easy stoppage victory for Golovkin in the middle rounds - perhaps earlier. Again, Martirosyan has an awkward style that's difficult to look good against, but - with all factors considered - if Golovkin doesn't look good here I think it will be a bit of a confirmation that he's slipped a bit and perhaps should no longer be considered the best boxer in the world over the likes of Lomachenko or Crawford.

In any case I'll be at the fight at StubHub Saturday night and am looking forward to seeing how this fight unfolds!

Prediction: Golovkin by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s):
1) Golovkin to win in rounds 1-4 (.5 unit)
2) Golovkin to win in rounds 5-8 (.5 unit)

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Broner vs. Vargas: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-04-21T10:34:00.000-04:00

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Fight: Adrien Broner (33-3, 24 KOs) vs. Jessie Vargas (28-2, 10 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: April 21, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs - though fight is being fought at a catchweight of 144 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Broner: +120, Vargas: -130 (5 Dimes, 4/21/18)
Purses: Broner: $1 million, Vargas: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Broner: Not ranked, Vargas: #7 ranked welterweight
Style: Broner: Orthodox, Vargas: Orthodox
Referee: Charlie Fitch

Why you should watch this fight

As indicated by the betting odds, Broner vs. Vargas is a fairly even-matched fight between Adrien Broner, an immensely talented boxer who's won major world titles in an impressive four different weight classes (and was the youngest fighter in boxing history to do so), and Jessie Vargas, a skilled fighter in his own right who's won major world titles in two weight classes.

Both fighters are in their late 20s and still very much in their primes, but for both, this fight is likely a true "last chance" to keep their names amongst the mix of the top fighters in the welterweight (147 lbs) and junior welterweight (140 lbs) divisions; the loser of this fight will likely - and perhaps permanently - be relegated to gatekeeper status.

Broner - at one time rated as high as the #5 pound-for-pound fighter in the world by Ring Magazine - suffered the first loss of his career 3.5 years ago vs. aggressive power-puncher Marcos Maidana. Broner also lost (decisively) the two times he stepped up to fight A-level competition - a wide unanimous decision loss to Shawn Porter in the summer of 2015 and, in his most recent fight 7 months ago, another clear unanimous decision loss to (undefeated) current junior welterweight champion Mikey Garcia. A loss to a respected. but relatively unheralded Vargas would possibly be the worst loss of his career and perhaps be confirmation Broner doesn't have the physical (or mental) skills or ability to beat a top-level opponent.

Vargas has had similar opportunities to break through vs. A-level opponents - his fight vs. Timothy Bradley Jr. in 2015 and his fight vs. Manny Pacquiao for the WBO welterweight title in 2016. Like Broner, both opportunities resulted in wide unanimous decision losses. A loss to Broner would actually be the worst loss of his career and solidify his status in a currently stacked welterweight division as a gatekeeper (as opposed to legitimate title contender).

But the winner of this fight will likely find himself right back in the mix near the top of the welterweight (or light welterweight) division and would be a prime candidate for a title shot in their next fight. (A title shot that could conceivably be accompanied by a 7-figure payday.)

Broner vs. Vargas is the headliner for a stacked card which also features former light middleweight (154 lbs) champion Jermall Charlo - who has recently moved up in weight and will be fighting the second middleweight fight of his career vs. Hugo Centeno Jr. - and former super featherweight champion Gervonta Davis, an electrifying, young knockout puncher seeking to regain the super featherweight title after losing it on the scales last year on the undercard of the Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor PPV event.

Prefight Analysis

I see Broner vs. Vargas as a relatively even matchup between two B+-level fighters and, quite frankly, there are more tangible reasons to pick Broner than Vargas in this fight.

Broner is unquestionably the more talented fighter with the superior set of skills in this matchup. He's more athletic, has quicker hands and feet, is the more accurate and efficient puncher, has superior punching power, and has better defensive fundamentals.

Although Broner has lost every time he's stepped up to face A-level competition very few observers, if any, would consider Vargas to be an A-level fighter. (Vargas himself has lost the two times he's stepped up to face A-level competition.) To be fair, Broner was reasonably competitive in his most recent loss vs. Garcia, losing a few rounds that were actually fairly close. Most of the rounds Broner lost in that fight (as well as most of the rounds he lost in his two previous losses to Maidana and Porter) were due to essentially being forced to box off his back foot (i.e., box while backing up) in deference to his opponent's high-level punching power and effective aggression. One would think Broner will be more aggressive and take more risks vs. Vargas - a fighter with a career TKO/KO percentage of only 33% (10 wins by TKO or KOsin 30 career fights) who doesn't have anywhere near the punching power of any of the fighters Broner has lost to previously.

Vargas is a scrappy, but somewhat predictable fighter who boxes mostly behind a straightforward (though solid) jab and basic 1-2 punch combinations. He comes into this fight with a 4" height and 2" reach advantage but has shown in previous fights a willingness to give up his height and reach advantage to fight inside, which could easily be to Broner's advantage given his superior hand speed, accuracy, and power.

Broner, in my opinion, is the fighter more likely to easily adjust to the 144-lb catchweight for this fight; he's fought 7 of his last 8 fights over the past 4 years below 144 lbs. Vargas, on the other hand, hasn't fought below welterweight (147 lbs) since 2014 so may be more prone to feeling the effects of weight drain coming into fight night. (It was in fact Broner who requested the catchweight for this fight, presumably to gain an advantage on Vargas who is more accustomed at the higher weight limit.)

Overall, I see Broner as the superior, more talented boxer who is well aware that a loss here would likely be the most devastating of his career and perhaps permanently end any consideration of him as a top-level fighter. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Broner, fighting for the first time under new trainer Kevin Cunningham, put on a strong performance and get the win here - especially as the "A-side" of this boxing promotion in front of what I expect to be a pro-Broner crowd in NYC. (Vargas is a West Coast fighter who casual boxing fans on the East Coast are largely unfamiliar with.)

But while I think there are more reasons than not that Broner *should* win, I'm picking Vargas to win this fight. Despite Broner's (numerous) advantages, I think the key to this fight will be punch activity; Vargas is actually a more active puncher than Mikey Garcia, who outworked Broner in Broner's most recent fight by throwing nearly twice as many punches despite being the naturally smaller boxer. I rate Vargas as a slightly more talented version of Adrian Granados - a fighter with a pedestrian resume who Broner barely beat by split decision last year in his hometown of Cincinnati (despite getting decisively outworked by Granados, who threw nearly 300 more punches than Broner). Broner has consistently demonstrated issues with punch (in)activity throughout his career vs. even mediocre opponents and has a proven habit of fighting down to his level of opposition; I fully expect Vargas to be the aggressor and outwork Broner as most of his recent opponents have done. Note that in the past, Vargas has gotten the benefit of a few very close, controversial decisions largely by outworking his opponent (see his fights vs. Josesito Lopez and Wale Omotoso as prime examples); a matchup vs. a relatively punch-selective Broner is another fight where Vargas has stands a good chance of eking out a victory on the judges' scorecards based on activity if the fight happens to be close either way.

Vargas doesn't have Broner's quickness or defensive abilities, but is skilled enough to stay out of real trouble vs. a typically risk-averse Broner who I think at the end of the day will stay true to his usual form and not take too many chances in this fight. It's also worth noting that the impressive power Broner demonstrated at lower weights earlier in his career hasn't carried up as well to higher weight classes; at below 140 lbs Broner is undefeated and boasts an 85% TKO/KO percentage (22 KOs in 26 fights). In his 4 fights above 140 lbs, Broner is 2-2 with no wins by TKO or KO.

As mentioned previously Vargas, like Broner, has yet to defeat an A-level opponent. However he was reasonably competitive vs. Bradley (who he arguably came close to stopping near the end of the 12th round of their fight) and Pacquiao (where one judge had him losing by only a single point), and earned an impressive 9th round stoppage victory vs. then undefeated Sadam Ali, who is currently the light middleweight champion of the world after beating future hall-of-fame fighter Miguel Cotto (in what was promoted as the final fight of Cotto's career) by unanimous decision. (So Vargas has stepped up and generally fought well vs. high-level opposition despite losing most of those fights.)

As shown with some of his antics leading up to the fight - which included confrontations with the lead promoter of the event, other fighters on the card, and even a Brooklyn-based rapper - Broner appears to lack professionalism and seriousness in his prefight preparations. Broner has actually performed below expectations in nearly every fight he's fought since his impressive TKO victory over then WBC lightweight champion Antonio DeMarco in 2012 - including even the fights he's won. I like Broner personally but see little to indicate that things will change vs. Vargas despite the obvious importance of this fight to his career.

I see Vargas's work rate and typical scrappiness vs. Broner's efficient but low-volume, reluctant-to-take-risk style resulting in a close fight that likely goes Vargas's way. I can't see Vargas stopping a tough-chinned Broner (who's fairly solid defensively and has never really come close to being stopped in his career), so see the best bet on this fight as Vargas to win by decision - which can currently be found as high as +135 on Bookmaker.

At the end of the day, this fight is less predictable than most given that 1) this is the first fight of Broner's professional career under new trainer Kevin Cunningham (thus difficult to anticipate whether the new trainer will positively or negatively impact Broner's performance), 2) the fight will be fought at a 144-lb catchweight (again, difficult to predict the impact the catchweight will have on each fighter though, as mentioned above, I suspect the catchweight will favor Broner), and 3) both fighters have been relatively inactive recently, each having fought only once in the past 14 months.

But in many ways this is an even matchup featuring clashing styles which should make for an interesting and entertaining fight no matter who emerges victorious.I'll be at this fight Saturday night and looking forward to see what unfolds!

Prediction: Vargas by decision

Recommended bet(s): 1) Vargas by 12 round decision (1 unit)

2) Broner/Vargas goes the full 12 round distance (.33 unit)

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Deontay Wilder vs. Luis Ortiz: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-03-03T02:27:00.000-05:00

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Fight: Deontay Wilder (39-0, 38 KOs) vs. Luis Ortiz (28-0, 24 KOs)
Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York, New York
Date: March 3, 2018
Weight class: Heavyweight
Title(s) on the line: WBC World heavyweight title
TV: Showtime
Line: Wilder: -325, Ortiz: +295 (5 Dimes, 3/3/18)
Purses: Wilder: $2.1 million, Ortiz: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Wilder: #2 ranked heavyweight, Ortiz: #5 ranked heavyweight
Style: Wilder: Orthodox, Ortiz: Southpaw
Referee: David Fields

Why you should watch this fight

A once long-dormant heavyweight division has been heating up over the past couple of years with the emergence of undefeated stars like Anthony Joshua, Deontay Wilder, Luis Ortiz, and Australian Jason Parker to once again become one of the most exciting divisions in the sport. (Undefeated Tyson Fury, who ended Wladimir Klitschko's nearly decade-long reign as heavyweight champion in 2015 is also reportedly making a return to the ring this year after a more than two-year hiatus.)

All four major heavyweight titles are currently held by Joshua (WBA, IBF), Wilder (WBC), and Parker (WBO); this Saturday's fight between Wilder and Ortiz in Brooklyn and the fight later this month (March 31st) between Joshua and Parker in the United Kingdom essentially serve as semifinal matchups for a superfight later this year or early next year that hopefully crowns the first undisputed heavyweight champion of the world in nearly 18 years (Lennox Lewis in 2000).

Wilder is one of the most feared and avoided boxers in the sport - the WBC heavyweight champion who boasts a perfect record 39-0, with 38 of those wins (97.4%) coming by TKO/KO. Half (19) of those 38 knockouts have come in the first round, including his most recent fight last November - a rematch vs. Bermane Stiverne. Wilder has excellent power in both hands (particularly his right) and - in knocking out Stiverne last November - has knocked out every opponent he's faced in his professional career. (In their first fight back in January 2015, Stiverne went the full 12 round distance with Wilder, losing a unanimous decision.)

Wilder, who has been heavyweight champion for three years (since beating Stiverne to earn the title), will be making his seventh title defense vs. undefeated Cuban heavyweight Luis Ortiz. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also a feared, heavily-avoided fighter with excellent power - only two of his scored 28 professional fights have gone the distance, with the other 26 ending in victory by early TKO/KO/DQ. (Ortiz also had two other fights that ended as an early stoppage victory but were later ruled no contests and struck from his win-loss record.)

Ortiz is by far the toughest opponent Wilder has faced in his career and is considered by most observers to have better overall skills than Wilder. At 38 years old, Ortiz is looking to win his first major world title belt. Ortiz is also attempting to become the first Cuban fighter - and first Latino born outside the United States - in boxing history to win a heavyweight title.

Again, Wilder vs. Ortiz will be one of the more significant fights to take place this year - the winner will be in line for a fight vs. the winner of Joshua vs. Parker (a fight that takes place in a few weeks) to determine the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world (assuming the politics of boxing don't get in the way and the fight can actually be made).

Prefight Analysis

All things considered, Wilder is the guy who I feel will probably win this fight. Wilder has exceptional power in both hands (to the point of - as I've mentioned above - having knocked out every opponent he's faced in his career), is in his prime, and is facing a past-prime fighter in a 38-year old Ortiz who can't match Wilder's athleticism or speed. Ortiz can box on the move but, given his relative deficit in athleticism and speed compared to Wilder, I find it unlikely he'll be able to evade Wilder's game-changing punching power for a full 12 rounds.

I expect Wilder's above-average jab and rangy boxing style - augmented by an 83" reach and 7' wingspan - to do a decent enough job of keeping Ortiz's offensive attack at bay. (More precisely, I expect Wilder's ability to box from distance, his quicker foot movement, as well as Ortiz's respect of Wilder's knockout power, to largely nullify Ortiz's clear advantage in boxing skill.) Wilder is a supremely confident, determined fighter who's made it known that he wants to go down as one of the all-time greats. Perhaps it's more talk and bravado than "all-time great"-caliber substance but I truly believe Wilder flat out just wants to win this fight more than Ortiz and that that desire will go a long way towards carrying him to victory here. Wilder is one of my favorite boxers - I'm rooting for him to win this fight and would grade him at approximately 55-60% to get the victory Saturday night.

But with all that said, it's tough to overlook the value of Ortiz as a 3-1 underdog. Like Wilder, Ortiz is also undefeated with impressive power (as evidenced by his career 80% TKO/KO ratio). And like Wilder, Ortiz has never even come close to losing a fight in his professional career. But Ortiz is almost certainly the more skilled, versatile fighter in this matchup. Ortiz is a high-level, Cuban-schooled technical boxer with extensive amateur experience (an impressive 343-19 record in the amateurs) facing a still somewhat raw fighter in Wilder who's arguably not shown much in the way skill other than a solid, rangy (though often basic and predictable) jab to complement his explosive power and athleticism. Though not his fault (as he's consistently called out top-level competition to fight him and has even been more than willing to travel overseas in hostile territory for big fights), Wilder has yet as a pro to face an elite heavyweight - Ortiz will be by far the best he'll have faced thus far in his career.

Ortiz likely has the advantage in a pure boxing match, and also in fighting from close distance as he's proven in numerous fights to be a skilled inside fighter - whereas Wilder has actually struggled on the inside vs. lesser opponents (see stretches of Wilder's recent fights vs. Gerald Washington, Artur Spilka, and Eric Molina). If Ortiz can use his superior boxing skill to evade Wilder's power (in particular limit the effectiveness of Wilder's right hand) he has an excellent chance of winning the fight to the point where I wouldn't be at all surprised if he stops Wilder in the mid to late rounds. Ortiz is the more accurate, savvy power puncher facing a fighter in Wilder who at times is prone to swinging wildly (thus leaving himself out of position and open to clean counterpunching) and whose chin has never been tested by an elite puncher.

There are reasons why even Wilder's promoter, Lou DiBella, was reluctant to take what is widely considered a high-risk, relatively low-reward fight for Wilder. Given his frequent mentions of UK heavyweight superstar Anthony Joshua in the prefight build-up to this fight, I suspect Wilder is at least somewhat overlooking this fight and perhaps underestimating Ortiz - who I'll point out again is a heavy-handed power puncher who has never come close to losing a fight in his professional career and is the more technically skilled boxer in this matchup.

I do think in this fight that Wilder's impressive power from distance - and superior athleticism and speed - is likely to overwhelm Ortiz's superior skill en route to a 39th victory by stoppage in his 40th fight. But given Ortiz's clear advantage in skill and experience - as well as the fight-changing punching power he himself brings to the table - I can't help but think Ortiz to win at (approximately) +300 odds is the best bet on this fight. If you're giving me +300 odds (even currently as high as +325 at some books) on the better skilled, more experienced and versatile fighter who's never come close to losing a fight (and who's never even been knocked down in his career), I'll take those odds almost every time. Especially when he's up against a guy who - despite an impressive record - has no experience vs. top-level competition and relies more on his athleticism and power than his still somewhat raw boxing abilities. But I will hedge the primary bet on Ortiz to win with what I feel is the most likely outcome of the fight - Wilder by TKO/KO (which can currently be found as low as -150 at Bovada).

I'll be at this fight Saturday night so regardless of the outcome I'm expecting some intense, explosive between these two heavy-handed heavyweights!

Prediction: Wilder by TKO/KO

Recommended bet(s): 1) Ortiz to win (risk .5 unit)

2) Wilder by TKO/KO (to win .5 unit)

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George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr.: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-02-17T15:15:00.000-05:00

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Fight: George Groves (27-3, 20 KOs) vs. Chris Eubank Jr. (26-1, 20 KOs)
Location: Manchester Arena, Manchester, United Kingdom
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Super middleweight (168 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBA Super World Super Middleweight title
TV: None (in the U.S. will be streamed on World Boxing Super Series YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD3OiO5NLkUJHL23qUv8L0Q/featured)
Line: Groves +158, Eubank Jr. -168 (5 Dimes, 2/17/18)
Purse: Groves: $2.1 million (approximate), Eubank Jr.: $2.1 million (approximate) [The two fighters are splitting a purse of approximately £3 million pounds evenly.]
Ring Magazine Rankings: Groves: #2 ranked super middleweight, Eubank Jr.: #4 ranked super middleweight
Style: Groves: Orthodox, Eubank Jr.: Orthodox
Referee: Michael Alexander

Why you should watch this fight

George Groves vs. Chris Eubank Jr. is one of the most anticipated fights of the year and the most anticipated fight between two UK fighters since Carl Froch rematched Groves in May of 2014, a fight which boasted a post-World War II British record of 80,000 in attendance at Wembley Stadium and sold out in less than an hour. (By comparison, this weekend's Groves vs. Eubank matchup sold out the 21,000-seat Manchester Arena in Manchester, England within just seven minutes.)

This fight features arguably the two best super middleweights in the world. Groves is a technically sound, experienced boxer with very good punching power in both hands that complements his decent hand speed and an ability to box on the move. He's looked fairly impressive in winning his last six fights (four by TKO/KO) since losing a WBC title fight to Badou Jack in 2015 and suffering two TKO losses to Froch in each of the two years prior to that. Groves, who switched trainers to noted UK trainer Shane McGuigan after his loss to Jack, won his first major world title - the WBA super middleweight title - last October vs. previously undefeated UK contender Jamie Cox.

In the first defense of his super middleweight title, Groves will face challenger Eubank Jr. - the son of former two-weight world champion and British boxing great Chris Eubank Sr. - who is trying to win the first major title of his professional career. High-volume, speedy, and aggressive with excellent conditioning and very good power, Eubank has looked highly impressive since his controversial split decision loss in 2014 to current undefeated WBO middleweight champion Billy Joe Saunders, having decisively won his last eight fights (seven by TKO/KO) and making enough of an impression in recent fights that he enters the fight as a solid (-168) favorite despite being the challenger who has never previously won a major world title.

This fight is being contested as a semifinal within the World Boxing Super Series (WBSS) super middleweight tournament. The winner of this fight will not only be the WBA super middleweight champion (and widely considered the best super middleweight of the world), the winner will advance to the WBSS final in London this June to face the winner of the Callum Smith vs. Juergen Braehmer WBSS semifinal (taking place next Saturday in Germany). While technically a semifinal matchup on paper, Groves vs. Eubank Jr. is essentially a megafight in the UK between two of the top ten British fighters in the sport pound-for-pound and is one of the very best fights that could've been made in boxing overall. Fantastic matchup that has all the makings of being a candidate for fight of the year.

Prefight Analysis

There are a bunch of solid reasons to favor Groves in this fight.

He is the naturally bigger man - a career super middleweight (168 lbs) who could possibly even compete for a world title at light heavyweight (175 lbs), while Eubank has a smaller frame and limited top-level experience at super middleweight, having actually fought most of his more notable fights in recent years at middleweight (160 lbs). Groves also has greater punching power to complement his size advantage (including one-punch power that former Groves opponent Martin Murray rates as superior to Ring Magazine's #1 pound-for-pound fighter Gennady Golovkin's) and is considered by most to be a more skilled, technically sound boxer than Eubank.

Groves without a doubt has more experience than Eubank vs. world-class opponents (particularly at super middleweight), having beaten highly regarded fighters such as James DeGale (an Olympic gold medalist who is still considered by some to be one of the best boxers in the sport pound-for-pound despite his recent upset loss to Caleb Truax), Martin Murray, Fedor Chuvinov, and Jamie Cox. Groves has also been in close, competitive super middleweight title fights vs. Jack (where he lost a split decision) and twice vs. Froch (where he led early in both fights, including the first fight where he led late on all three judges' scorecards before a questionable stoppage). Groves has fought on the world stage before (including in front of 80,000 fans in his second fight vs. Froch at Wembley Stadium n London) and won the WBA super middleweight title in his last fight vs. a solid, undefeated opponent in Cox.

Outside of a past-prime, 37-year-old (though still dangerous) Arthur Abraham, Eubank has yet to defeat any high profile opponents; the biggest name Eubank has fought in his career is current undefeated middleweight champion Saunders, who he lost to by split decision in 2014 after being dominated in the early rounds of the fight. Saturday's fight will be just Eubank's fourth 12-round fight at super middleweight and the first major world title fight of his career.

Generally, if a fighter has the advantages Groves has in size, skills, punching power, and experience you'd expect that fighter to win... when you further consider that sportsbooks are currently offering odds as high as +170 for Groves to win or as high as +500 for Groves to win on points (which are compelling odds given that Eubank has never been stopped or knocked down even once as a pro), even a Groves skeptic would have to strongly consider betting on him simply for the value.

Though I could see this fight going either way and think the odds being offered on Groves are tempting, I still think betting on Eubank Jr. to win is where the best value lies. Despite Groves's advantages in certain notable metrics (size, skill, etc.), I don't think any of those advantages are wide enough vs. an ever-improving Eubank who seems to have gotten better after each fight since his narrow loss three years ago to Saunders. (In other words, while Groves has the edge in size, power, and skill I feel Eubank is comparable enough in these areas to compete and give Groves serious problems.) Though Groves has a slightly larger physical frame and bigger punching power, Eubank strikes me as the physically stronger fighter; I expect that he'll be able to use his superior athleticism and speed to get inside on Groves, where he can impose his physical strength and break him down with high punch volume - particularly in the later rounds of the fight.

Eubank is the better fighter from close range and has the power to hurt Groves on the inside - a brawl-style fight from close distance favors Eubank while a more classic boxing match from mid-range or full distance likely favors Groves. I feel Eubank's advantages in physical strength and speed combined with his typically busy punch output will ultimately allow him to control the pace of the fight and mostly negate some of the advantages Groves has in this matchup.

But the biggest mismatch I see in this fight relates to stamina and mental fortitude. Especially in his biggest fights, Groves is notorious for being a 6-round fighter who starts well only to tire and fade late. Eubank, on the other hand, has a reputation for being a 12-round fighter - one of the more well-conditioned boxers in the sport who seemingly gets stronger as the fight goes on and is capable of turning up his intensity in the late rounds of a fight.

Groves was leading early in his fights vs. Froch before fading and getting stopped in the late rounds of both fights. He was also leading in the middle rounds of his super middleweight title fight vs. Jack (despite getting knocked down in the first round of the fight) but lost a split decision after losing most of the late rounds. Even in Groves's most impressive win - a majority decision victory vs. DeGale back in 2011 - he won most of the early rounds before losing most of the late rounds. Groves has a history of faltering in the late rounds vs. top-level opponents - one has to question not only the stamina but the mental toughness of a fighter who consistently fades late in big fights. Eubank is a durable fighter with excellent stamina and a solid chin - and fights with as much (or more) aggressive intensity in late rounds as he does early; this bodes poorly for Groves given his history of tiring late in fights.

Also consider that in recent fights, Groves has not boxed on his feet (i.e., not been as mobile) as much as he did when he was younger (like his win nearly seven years ago vs. DeGale). Groves has instead employed a more stationary style where he is more prone to standing in front of his opponent and trading power punches - a strategy which perhaps allows him to better utilize his outstanding power but a style which probably cost him both of his fights vs. Froch and which may not be the wisest style to employ vs. a durable, high-volume power puncher with a solid chin like Eubank.

I actually expect Groves to outbox Eubank a bit early and get off to a good start (as he typically does in these kind of matchups) but think the stronger, faster, more durable and relentless Eubank will wear Groves down late for a win on points or perhaps even a late stoppage. I get the sense Eubank is hungrier and mentally tougher than Groves (perhaps much more so), and sees this fight as a career-defining moment and a win that will put him on a faster track to international superstardom.

So I do like Eubank overwhelming Groves late for the win as the best bet on this fight. (Eubank to win can currently be had for odds as low as -160.) With that said, Groves to win by decision - which can be found for as high as +500 on Bovada - is a bet that's too good to pass up as a hedge given Grove's advantages in some key metrics (size, skill, power, and experience), as well as the fact that Eubank has never been stopped as a pro. So the betting strategy I'd recommend is Eubank to win hedged with a smaller bet of Groves to win by decision (to cover losses in case Eubank doesn't win). (This betting strategy won't yield much profit but this is where I see the best value in the fight.)

Both fighters have a knack for making exciting fights so this should be a good one!

Prediction: Eubank Jr. to win

Recommended bet(s): 1) Eubank Jr. to win (1 unit)
2) Groves to win on points (.33 unit)

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Danny Garcia vs. Brandon Rios: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2018-02-15T23:57:00.001-05:00

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Fight: Danny Garcia (33-1, 19 KOs) vs. Brandon Rios (34-3-1, 25 KOs)
Location: Mandalay Bay Events Center, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: February 17, 2018
Weight class: Welterweight (147 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: None
TV: Showtime
Line: Garcia -1750, Rios +1350 (5 Dimes, 2/15/18)
Purse: Garcia: $1.25 million, Rios: $500,000
Ring Magazine Rankings: Garcia: #5 ranked welterweight, Rios: Not ranked
Style: Garcia: Orthodox, Rios: Orthodox
Referee: Kenny Bayless

Why you should watch this fight

Primarily to confirm whether Danny Garcia - who lost for the first time in his professional career in a close, competitive split-decision loss to Keith Thurman last March and is coming off the longest layoff of his career after that loss - should still be considered one of the elite welterweights in what may now be the most stacked division in boxing.

Indeed, the welterweight division is deep in talent with names like Thurman, Errol Spence, Manny Pacquiao, Shawn Porter, and now Terence Crawford - who makes his welterweight debut in April vs. undefeated champion Jeff Horn for the WBO title after becoming the undisputed junior welterweight champion this past August. (Crawford is currently rated the Ring Magazine #2 pound-for-pound boxer in the sport behind only Gennady Golovkin and was the first undisputed world champion in any weight class in over a decade.) This fight should serve as a gauge to determine whether Garcia - a no-frills but talented and skilled boxer who probably has the most impressive fight resume out of any of the top welterweights - still belongs among the elite in the division.

The gauge for Garcia on Saturday night will be Brandon Rios, a former WBA world champion at lightweight who has arguably been one of the most exciting action fighters of this generation. Despite being stopped in his last loss back in November of 2015 vs. Tim Bradley (Rios's only stoppage loss and the only time he's been knocked down in his career), Rios is known for his Mexican-style grit and having an excellent chin. Rios is a come-forward pressure fighter with good power who is a fan favorite and a tough out for anyone, but this fight vs. Garcia will be just his 2nd fight after a 1.5-year break (temporary retirement) from the ring after his loss to Bradley. But Rios appears to be rejuvenated and in the best shape of his boxing career after reuniting with original trainer and close friend Robert Garcia, following a one-fight stint with Los Angeles-based trainer Ricky Funez.

Garcia vs. Rios is a WBC title eliminator, meaning that the winner of this fight becomes the second mandatory challenger for Thurman's WBC belt. (Porter, who beat Andre Berto in a WBC title eliminator last April, is currently Thurman's first mandatory opponent.) If Rios wins this fight, it would be an impressive comeback from a brief retirement, would be by far the best win of Rios's career, and would put him on track again for the high six-figure/low seven-figure paydays he enjoyed in the prime of his career vs. fighters like Manny Pacquiao and Mike Alvarado.

If Garcia wins (and wins impressively), it would further solidify his status as one of the best fighters at 147 lbs and as still a serious threat to any of the top guys in the division.

Prefight Analysis

As an over 20-1 favorite at some sportsbooks, Garcia is (by far) the widest favorite I've done a prediction for so it should be no surprise I'm picking him to win big here. A prime Rios goes 12 rounds with Garcia every time and would've even been competitive in spots with his relentless pressure and solid chin. But a past-prime, battle-worn Rios who's been relatively inactive the past couple of years and never really looked impressive at welterweight will have a difficult time hanging in there vs. a prime, fresh Garcia who is legitimately one of the top four or five boxers in a deep welterweight division and is arguably one of the top 20 boxers in the world pound-for-pound.

Rios is a name well-known to all hardcore boxing fans and is notorious for being a tough-out action fighter but this fight is a mismatch to the point you could question why it was even approved as a WBC belt title eliminator. Garcia is considerably more skilled, faster, and has greater (as well as more accurate) punching power than the relatively predictable and limited Rios, who even in his prime never beat a fighter of Garcia's caliber. (Garcia, on the other hand, has beaten a long list of fighters more talented and skilled than Rios - see Amir Khan, Lucas Matthysse, Lamont Peterson, Erik Morales (twice), Paulie Malignaggi, as well as a few others.)

Rios knows only one way to fight (which for the most part has served him well throughout his boxing career) - a style predicated on high-volume pressure, trading punches from close distance, and a will to win that seems nearly always greater than his opponent's. But Garcia has a lot to prove coming off the first loss of his career and has proven to have one of the better chins in boxing (having never been knocked down in his career despite having faced some of the more feared punchers in the sport like Matthysse and Thurman). It's hard to believe Rios - whose power has never been eye-catching at welterweight like it was at lower weights - poses much of a knockout threat to Garcia with a punching attack that is high in volume but is generally predictable with not much speed or creativity behind the punches. Garcia, on the other hand, is a deceptively slick, savvy puncher who will land crushing power punches (in particular his left hook, which is one of the best left hooks in the sport) vs. Rios, who has notoriously poor defensive skills (including little to no head movement, relatively slow reflexes, and a willingness to take clean power punches in order to counter with his own attack).

Garcia wants to make a statement here that he is still one of the top fighters in the world at 147 lbs; Rios appears to have been the guy handpicked by Garcia's manager, Al Haymon, as the opponent Garcia would best be able to make that statement against with little to no risk of a second consecutive loss on his boxing record.

Despite the criticisms and negative assessment in this analysis, Rios is actually one of my favorite fighters; I respect his chin and tremendous toughness enough to believe he'll probably last the majority of the 12 rounds with Garcia. But at the end of the day, this is arguably a low A-level fighter in Garcia vs. a C-level fighter in Rios (with D-level defense) who's best days are behind him. I see Garcia breaking Rios down in the mid to late rounds to win this fight by stoppage - possibly even a vicious stoppage that forces Rios back into retirement. There's certainly a chance Rios has enough of a chin to get through the full 12 rounds - especially given that Garcia can be very patient at times and may be looking more for spots to counter rather than seek and destroy. But I think the (wide) mismatch in skill, Garcia's (oft-underappreciated) power, and Rios's declining abilities and propensity for getting hit cleanly makes a bet on Garcia to win inside the distance (which can currently be found at -130) the best bet for this fight.

Prediction: Garcia by TKO/KO

Recommended bet: Garcia by TKO/KO (.5 unit)

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David Lemieux vs. Billy Joe Saunders: quick prefight analysis and betting prediction

2017-12-16T03:08:00.001-05:00

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Fight: David Lemieux (38-3, 33 KOs) vs. Billy Joe Saunders (25-0, 12 KOs)
Location: Place Bell, Laval, Quebec, Canada
Date: December 16, 2017
Weight class: Middleweight (160 lbs)
Title(s) on the line: WBO World middleweight title
TV: HBO
Line: Lemieux -115, Saunders -105 (5 Dimes, 12/15/17)
Ring Magazine Rankings: Lemieux: #3 ranked middleweight, Saunders: #4 ranked middleweight
Style: Lemieux: Orthodox, Saunders: Southpaw
Referee: Michael Griffin

Why you should watch this fight

In a middleweight division loaded with talent, Billy Joe Saunders is an undefeated world title holder (WBO) who is arguably the third best middleweight on the planet behind boxing superstars Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin.

Saunders is a tough and very talented technician who has beaten everyone put in front of him, including highly regarded World Boxing Super Series super middleweight favorite and - at the time undefeated - Chris Eubank Jr. But Saunders will be fighting outside the the friendly confines of his home country (the United Kingdom) for the first time in his professional career Saturday night when he travels to Canada to face one of the most dangerous power punchers in the sport in David Lemieux on Lemieux's home turf in Montreal. Lemieux is a highly aggressive, explosive puncher with power in both hands and an impressive 80.5% KO ratio over 41 professional fights; his only loss in the past seven years was to current Ring Magazine pound-for-pound #1-ranked fighter Golovkin.

A win for Lemieux tomorrow night would be by far the most impressive of his career (would in fact be his first win vs. a top-level opponent) and would firmly establish him as one of the top four or five middleweights in the world. The winner of this fight is probably the most likely to face the winner of next May's Canelo vs. Golovkin rematch later in 2018 for a middleweight unification bout that could result in the first undisputed middleweight champion in boxing since Jermain Taylor in 2006.

With the exception of a few, fighters from the United Kingdom have typically not fared well in title fights overseas in hostile environments vs. world-class opposition. A win for Saunders tomorrow night vs. Lemieux would actually be one of the more impressive wins for a UK fighter outside the UK in recent years.

Prefight Analysis

As the odds suggest, Lemieux vs. Saunders is a true "50/50" fight that could go either way. Extremely difficult to predict the winner here.

What you have to like about Saunders is that he is likely the better pure boxer/technician in this matchup, with his high ring intelligence and superior boxing skills. Unlike Lemieux, Saunders has also never lost a fight in his professional career. Whenever Saunders has faced a tough, top-level opponent (vs. Eubank Jr., Andy Lee, or even his most recent fight vs. a solid Willie Monroe Jr. - all of whom are arguably on the same level as, if not even slightly better than Lemieux) he's emerged from the fight victorious. Lemieux, on the other hand, has never beaten a fighter near the caliber of Saunders and has actually already lost twice in his hometown of Montreal to fighters with less skill than Saunders. (Lemieux's first loss was to a fighter in Joachim Alcine who proceeded to lose his next five fights after beating Lemieux.)

Although Saunders doesn't have Lemieux's power, he strikes me as both mentally and physically tougher than Lemieux - a toughness I think that is the result of his blue collar, Gypsy upbringing where he'd been fighting in bare-knuckle competitions when he was only five years old. Saunders has a tight, effective defense (opponents land only 18% of total punches and 23.6% of power punches vs. Saunders) and has never been knocked out or knocked down in his professional career. (Lemieux, on the other hand, has been stopped twice.) I think Saunders' superior boxing skill (in particular his solid jab which I expect to be very effective in managing distance vs. Lemieux), as well as his oft-overlooked mental toughness and grit may be too much for Lemieux to over come - even in Montreal.

With all that said, I'm not at all comfortable betting on Saunders to win this fight - even at nearly even money odds - as Lemieux does have several advantages in this matchup. This fight is essentially in Lemieux's hometown (Laval, Quebec - a suburb of Montreal) and - although Saunders is technically the "A" side fighter in this matchup - Lemieux's promoter Golden Boy is the more high profile, lead promoter for Saturday night's boxing card. I strongly suspect the home crowd atmosphere combined with the backing of Golden Boy Promotions may create a scoring bias in favor of Lemieux - as it arguably did this past May for Golden Boy-backed Canelo in his controversial draw vs. Golovkin, a fight which many felt he clearly lost. Again, this will be the first time in Saunders' professional career that he's fought outside of the United Kingdom, so it's tough to predict how well he'll fare fighting in a hostile environment.

Although Saunders may have slightly faster hand speed, Lemieux is the superior athlete with much greater punching power. Saunders has never in his career faced a fighter with Lemieux's combination of power and punch volume and could end up getting overwhelmed by Lemieux's effective aggression - especially in the later rounds where Saunders is known to gas out on occasion. And though Lemieux has lost earlier in his career - as an inexperienced 22-year old - to lesser opponents than Saunders, he's gained experience and improved a bit since those losses; since losing two consecutive fights in 2011, Lemieux has lost only one other fight - to a fighter in Golovkin many consider the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world and one of the great middleweights of all time. Saunders, on the other hand, hasn't looked particularly impressive in recent fights, causing some to speculate whether he's already past his peak as a top-level fighter.

Lemieux vs. Saunders is a "toss-up" fight in the truest sense of the word. Despite Lemieux's power advantage inside the ring and advantage in some key intangibles outside of the ring (home crowd, high-profile promoter), I still slightly favor Saunders' superior boxing skills, defense, and mental toughness to prevail vs. Lemieux. Just not enough to bet on it.

I do, however, believe Saunders - with his slick defensive abilities and solid chin (a chin which has never hit the canvas in his professional career) - is highly likely to get through the full 12 rounds with Lemieux, win or lose. Note that 2 of Lemieux's last 3 fights within the past 14 months - both vs. lesser-skilled opponents than Saunders - went the full distance with Lemieux failing to score even one knockdown in either fight. Note also that Lemieux - who, like Saunders, has a history of stamina issues - has only one of his 33 TKO/KO victories past the 7th round; in other words, if Lemieux doesn't stop his opponent in the early or middle rounds, he's usually not stopping them late.

With Saunders not being much of a puncher himself (only two wins by TKO/KO in the past five years and a career TKO/KO% of only 48%), I think that the best value on this fight is to bet that the fight goes the full 12 rounds - a bet that is currently available at around -150 odds.

As far as the outcome, it's hard to predict even what kind of fight will break out Saturday night. A high-volume war likely favors Lemieux, while a slower-paced, more tactical fight likely favors Saunders. Bur either way it's an intriguing matchup and tough test that puts a lot at stake for both fighters.

Prediction: Saunders by decision

Recommended bet: Lemieux/Saunders goes full 12 rounds (.5 unit)

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