Matt Charleton - Blogging on media and technology

TMT Predictions – Deloitte on the Future of Tech, Media and Telecomm

2010-02-01T11:59:00.000-08:00

This morning I was lucky enough to attend the Deloitte TMT Predictions event at the Terminal City Club in Vancouver. The event paid off big, with Duncan Stewart of Deloitte (link) very effectively illustrating the top 10 predictions in media, tech and telecomm for 2010, based on thousands of interviews, surveys and meticulous research.

Deloitte’s prediction track record speaks for itself. According to Duncan, Deloitte “bats a .656...” when it comes to their forecasts, which is “better than Ted Williams.” Though it might seem like a C+, Deloitte’s claims, which sometimes counter popular opinion, have big implications in industry. In 2009, they accurately predicted the massive boom of 3D cinema (though they don’t foresee growth in 3D TV any time soon) and the accelerating growth of netbooks. Duncan was also to admit their foibles, such as the flop of WiFi radio.

A full report of the predictions, podcasts and other content is available through the site (link), with the Montreal event hosted on uStream (link). For now, I’ll touch upon some of the key predictions that piqued my interest and how they might translate to development of media.

1.)    ‘eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves’: While tech like the Amazon Kindle boasts enhanced dpi and readability, the technical limitations must be addressed to expand the market. Expect printed media to face continual challenges as eBooks readership expands.

2.)    ‘Smaller than a netbook and bigger than a smartphone – net tablets arrive’: Jumping right into the ubiquitous iPad discussion, Deloitte predicts sales in the 10s of millions, as opposed to the average street estimate of 5 million. Despite criticisms of the iPad just being a larger smart phone, Deloitte views this as the hardware’s greatest attribute. The level of interactivity with media through this technology is staggering – as shown in the Sports Illustrated Tablet Demo (link)

3.)    ‘Paying for what we eat: carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy’: Established players in the North American telecomm industry will move away from the “all you can eat” or unlimited data plans, favouring payment buckets, or a tiered usage system. New players in the Canadian market, such as Wind Mobile (link), however, will have the capacity to offer unlimited data packages – price wars for new players doesn’t work, so instead they’ll wage a ‘data war’.

4.)    ‘The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues’: For companies, online advertising simple has more bang for their buck (10 times better payoff). Deloitte expects a 50% growth in online media expenditure by the end of 2011, growing to 15% of total advertising expenditure.

This avenue presents innovative disruption to the industry, which poses a threat to traditional media by 1) stealing market share and 2) causing price deflation across all media (think mp3's and the music industry). Not only will their piece of the pie get smaller, but the pie itself will shrink.With bold moves into online marketing, such as Pepsi forgoing the traditional Superbowl advertisements in favour of internet advertising, it’s clear to see this trend in action.

At end the event, I spoke with Duncan about the future of social media. While he believes there is massive potential for growth, he currently sees many companies focusing on the implications the technology has for internal communications, such as Bell’s Jabber campaign. The hurdle social media advertising lies in accurate and efficient methods of analysing campaigns. Currently many projects split their cost 50/50 between content development and monitoring; this figure needs to be closer to 90/10 before these campaigns are truly effective.

Let's see if Deloitte can bump up that C+ average this year... time will tell.

Technically speaking: Weighing in on the iPad

2010-01-31T21:59:00.000-08:00

I’m a little late to the iPad opinion party, but while it’s a hot topic, I might as well chime in. The unveiling of the tech has created a create divide within internet users. The prophetic Steve Jobs parted the online masses a click of his remote. Even Mac ‘fanboys’ ultimately are divided on the subject, with many having hyped the release so much that there was no way it could have ever delivered. As my former business professor advised when engaging with customers: “one must lower expectations so that you can exceed them.”

It’s a tall order for Apple. How can you create that kind of buzz and still supply the honey? I guess sometimes hype is a double-edged sword. Regardless, the iPad is the second most popular trend on twitter (link), matching the crisis in Haiti that has dominated the (micro)blogosphere for the past several weeks. I still believe it’s premature to judge the product as essentially nobody has even used the product – with the exception of Pee Wee Herman (link).

I think polarizing reviews are only going to incite rage from one camp or the other. What I have found beneficial were those articles that are purely statements of facts. Mashable tracked the product’s missing components and yet still provided a fairly agnostic view– one of the few that I found valuable (link).

Many condemn Apple for releasing what they feel is a less-than-useful product or rather one that didn’t reach its potential. Many abhor the iPad’s inability to multitask or lack of camera, peripheral ports or extended memory. What needs to be understood that this is all good business. What I maintain when I discuss the subject with others is that if Apple rolled out a true tablet PC, they would cannibalize laptop sales. Your dedicated Apple consumer will still buy the newest macbook and perhaps even the iPad as well, but if the iPad were the end-all be-all of tablet computing, it would mean one or the other. It’s just good business.

It’s not that Apple couldn’t deliver; it’s simply that it doesn’t make sense for them to do so. The iPad will fill a niche that isn’t quite mobile and isn’t quite personal computing, a niche that Apple will carve out for themselves. The iPad complements other computing devices, it doesn’t replace them. Why cut a bigger piece of an hyper-competitive pie when you can just bake another all by yourself?

Note: this won’t be the case for long, with numerous competitive products coming out from several developers - (link)

The Power of Social Media 1: Travel

2010-01-25T21:39:00.001-08:00

"Because Mass Emails are for Tools," reads the title of my former travel blog MMCMMA. Though it may be a little in-your-face, the underlying concept still rings true. During a three-month foray into Thai culture and kickboxing, I kept a short blog to keep those at home updated. Gone are the days of postcards and even the more recently developed ‘mass email’. The sights and sounds of foreign lands remain the same, but social media has forever changed the landscape of its documentation.

My friends’ aptly named ‘Two Guys and a Chevy’ blog is a perfect example of the power of social media in travel. Two self-admittedly not-so-tech-savvy guys utilized several free Google utilities to chronicle their three-month cross-continental road trip through written content, photos and a nifty Google map that tracked their location. In lieu of what would have been cumbersome postcards, phone calls and printed photographs, a simple social media platform enabled the real-time distribution of their travel information, connecting them seamlessly with family, friends and, most amazingly, strangers interested in their travels.

This idea of seamless, real-time distribution is enabled through numerous social media platforms world-wide. Whether it be in your day-to-day life or on a hike though the Himalayas, so long as you have internet access you can share that content and invite your network to share your experiences (a trend that won’t stop any time soon). On a daily basis, dozens of Facebook updates inundate my ‘live news feed’ sharing multi-media stories of friends experiencing the world abroad. Though it may be something we take for granted now or even ignore, the bottom line is that it is still incredibly remarkable. To this point, social media has acted as travel tools largely used for documentation and distribution; nevertheless, expect a tidal shift in the role it will play in the future.

Case in point: Couch Surfing. Through a robust and diverse online community, would-be travelers are able to connect with generous folks who offer lodging in return for... well, nothing. Create a profile, input your travel details and you’ll be hard-pressed to not find a person willing to host you: a complete stranger. While security perhaps is an issue, there is an overwhelming sense of trust. Users ‘pay it forward’ to continue the cycle of contribution and, as their slogan says, to 'participate in creating a better world, one couch at a time.'

With the economy down, travel itself has become that much more of a luxury. Fret not: social media to the rescue. Foursquare is an ingenious mobile application could be described as a hybrid of Google Maps and Twitter with a little competition thrown into the mix. The application encourages exploring your local environment, prompting users to ‘check in’ at locations (by recording location via GPS) throughout the city and providing incentives to do so. Badges are awarded for those who complete certain accomplishments. Checking into 10 gallery locations will earn you the ‘Warhol badge’ or earn the ‘Superstar’ badge by accomplishing 50 ‘check-ins’ at unique venues. If travel is not an option, you can become a tourist within your own city.

We aren't about to stop moving and exploring - it's simply human nature. Nevertheless, social media is here to enhance the experience. After all it's the journey, not the destination, that counts.