It starts NOW.

The price of Gold has been in BULLISH mood since last year.People are looking at more safety on their savings. They started to realize that paper money, or even the mighty USD can’t help them during the crisis.

This sentiment of “safe heaven” asset has boosted Gold’s value. On June 21, 2010 Gold reached its peak level at $1265.3. It has since retreat to a low of $1157.47 on Juy 28.

But the yellow metal managed to find its momentum to be able to hit a 2 month high $1254.73 an ounce on the London Bullion Market.

Our major Trendline showed a significant uptrend incoming months. There are currently 3 support lines that will hold the Gold off.  Support 1 is at $1244.13, support 2 at $1226.8 and support 3 lays at $1217.3. Personally I can’t see it reaches even the 2nd Support level.

Having said so, the most crucial level lies at the $1300. I can be decisive when you look at the Stoch. It has reached its Overbought territory quiet some time now. A retracement might might happen. A bubble? I don’t think so.

Back to our signal.

Yesterday the pair drop till 1.26242 and suddenly it bounce back more than 100 pips. I managed to get around 40 pips and later call it a day.

It’s looking a bit bullish today, although I might say my short and medium term trading is still on short.

I stick to my round number, 1.27000 as the decisive level. Above that, its all bullish and vice versa.

For bullish takers, I suggest you wait for more convincing candle pattern. With such confirmation, next on the bullish radar is 1.27345 and 1.27643. History showed that there will be a reversal near the lines. Take your profits early.

The fibonacci 38.2 level located just below my round number, at 1.2671. This will provide a strong support line. Breaking that line would bring the pair straight to 1.26600 and 1.2642.

Happy piping!

There are mix signals generated from todays trading. I’m waiting for the right time to enter the trade

BUY: Starting from 1.2800 to 1.28400 ,1.28800 and 1.3000.

SELL: From 1.27697 to 1.27359,1.2700 and 1.26457.

Wait for candle confirmation.

Please be careful at the 38.2 fibo line (1.2845). It could be a crucial reversal line.

Its too late to give my daily review but I believe fundamentally these news are worth of reading:

1. U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index, a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Fed because it measures a variable basket of goods and services, as opposed to the CPI (Consumer Price Index) which measures a fixed basket of goods and services, Monday, June 28, 8:30 a.m.
   The core PCE Index is expected to confirm that inflationary pressures in the U.S. remain flat at 0.1%, same as the previous month’s reading, while consumer spending inches up by 0.1%.
2. USD – U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, Tuesday, June 29, 10:00 a.m. The consensus forecasts point to a decline in consumer confidence to 62.6 from 63.3.
3. EUR – Euro-zone HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices), the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone and the European Union’s equivalent to the CPI (Consumer Price Index), Wednesday, June 30, 5:00 a.m. The Euro-zone inflation could pull back to 1.5% y/y in June from 1.6% y/y in May.
4. USD – U.S. ADP-Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, a measure of jobs lost or added to the private sector of the economy, also serving as a preliminary estimate for the outcome of the monthly non-farm payrolls, Wednesday, June 30, 8:15 a.m.
   The private sector of the U.S. economy is expected to add 58,000 new jobs in June compared with 55,000 jobs in May. This makes a total of only 3,000 new jobs-a rather low jobs creation and a potential warning sign of things to come with Friday’s non-farm payrolls.
5. USD – U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, where a reading above or below 50 is the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction, Thursday, July 1, 10:00 a.m.
   The manufacturing sector, which has been the leader of the U.S. economic recovery, could register another month of growth, but this time with a slight pullback to 58.9 in June from 59.7 in May.
6. USD – U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation Report, one of the most important indicators of economic health, measuring the number of new jobs created or lost in the world’s largest economy, Friday, July 2, 8:30 a.m.
   With the alarmingly low private sector jobs creation and the Government not hiring as many temporary census workers as they did in the previous month, this could turn out to be a disappointing employment situation report. The consensus forecasts anticipate the U.S. economy to lose anywhere from 70K to 103K jobs and the unemployment rate to increase to 9.8% in June from 9.7% in May.

Just a quick share with you guys, according to Bloomberg, more than 90 percent of the 141 respondents, which have a total market capitalization of $2 trillion, say the euro will remain below $1.30 by the end of the year. The average forecast, weighted by the size of the companies, fell to $1.22, from $1.34 in the March survey.

What say you?

Happy trading!

I had a very long break last week. It has been quiet some time since I bring my family to a holiday trip.

OK. Back to our analysis. In the recent weeks, to be precise, 2 weeks ago, Euro had seem to gain some momentum against the greenback. The highest price that was recorded was at 1.2467 and from that point the price has drop for more than 250 pips till yesterday.

Fundamentally

I was coaching my last class yesterday when we saw an unexpected drop in the New Home Sales (US) data. That news eventually kept me away from trading at least for an hour (10.00 pm – 11.00 pm). But another news was in hand. The FOMC statement was released at 2.00 am and still the rate haven’t change. In my recent years of trading, I always wanted to avoid trading FOMC statement. The news itself has significantly pushed the pair upwards for more than 120 pips. Not bad for a day trader!

Technically

Still, my view is on SHORT. I can’t see the Eurozone push any higher that what it has recorded last week. If you understand the nature of a trend, than this must be the retracement. The pair is taking its breath for the next downward target. A strong resistance line is seen at 1.2340 and a break above there will bring the pair to the 1.23600 and 1.24200.  My trading strategy is to short for the failure of breaking the 1.2340 line towards 1.23000, 1.22700 and 1.22400. A more aggressive trade will see shorting opportunities below the 1.22000 and 1.21000.

Happy pipping!

I’ve been hit with a 50pips lost yesterday when I opened a sell position at 1.20800 and closed at 1.21300, which is my SL. The price never did go down but still in my trading zone (1.21200/1.20800).

I’ve been drawing some more lines today, especially the start of the selling rallies and the stop line. I recommend there will likely be a bullish scenario from 1.2100 till 1.22000. I will enter a short position from 1.22000 and try to maximize my profit by putting my TP at 1.2030. Well, if all turns well, I shall bag more than 160pips. hahahha!

So, what is your strategy? Are you ready to bull or stay on the sideline to sell on rallies. Whatever it is, please don’t forget to update your trading journal and manage your money properly.

See you!

If there’s any good advice I want to give you guys now, than STAYING OUT seems to be the best thing to do. Frankly, I can’t see any movement from the pair. It’s just going sideways.

Fundamentally, I don’t see any big movers news in today’s trading. But both tomorrow and Friday offer something more lucrative.  So, i might save some energy for today

. Technically, yesterday the price went up till 1.2000 but failed to break the psycho line. It then drop more than 80pips. I change my resistance line to 1.21000 and my trading zone is between 1.2050/80.  Any sell rallies is considered between this trading zone.

One good strategy is trying to find any bull opportunities in between the trading zone. It means, try to buy, with the confirmation of candle of course, if the price ever break the 1.20000 line and take some small profit (between 20 – 35 pip). Exit, and get ready to sell rallies. Don’t hope the price will go much, much higher as the medium and long term trend is still bearish.

9jun2010

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