Men vs. Sports

Blazers 2012 Free Agency

2012-07-10T11:00:00.002-07:00

The Blazers missed out on paying big money to Roy Hibbert this offseason. Plan B should be to pursue young players that might add to their core or veterans who can set an example for the rookies at PG and C.

Who they should pursue:

Robin Lopez (24). A defensive oriented-center who pairs nicely with Aldridge. He's not a star player or the offensive threat Brook is, but he's efficient on that end. Restricted Free-Agent, but the Suns are cheap and already have Gortat at starter and Frye and others available in the front-court. Could be had in a sign-and-trade. Plan B: Pretty much anyone who is cheap. They need to at least put a body here, but they'd be better of with Lopez, even if they have to overpay.
Anthony Randolph (22). Could work as an off-the-bench PF playing beside Aldridge when he slides over.
Aaron Brooks (27). Older than you might think, local kid. Will not inhibit Lillard from playing if he is ready, but can handle a full-time starting role as well. Can run the offense and create.
Courtney Lee (26). Probably going to a contender, but he'd be a great guy to sign, even for too much, because he'll be in demand as a trade piece. A 3 point shooter and defender fits on any team.
C.J Miles (25). Batum replacement if they let him go to Minnesota. Otherwise, a decent back-up SF if Victor Klaver isn't brought over.

Who they shouldn't:

Chris Kaman - he is 30 and injury prone.
Brook Lopez - they already have a tall big guy who likes to score but isn't a good rebounder. Plus he's going to be extremely expensive.
Brendan Haywood - game fits, but personality does not.
Jerryd Bayless - wouldn't be the worse thing in the world, but he's probably not the greatest example for Lillard to see.
Mike Bibby

2012 NBA Draft

2012-06-27T17:09:00.002-07:00

Lankownia’s 2012 Draft Board

1. Anthony Davis – The best draft pick since Durant or even Lebron.

2. Thomas Robinson – NBA body/length who produced in college and has all the intangibles

3. Andre Drummond – 40% chance he’s a stiff, 40% chance he’s a quality defender/rebounder and 20% chance he’s an all-star.

4. Harrison Barnes - Will be a better NBA player than college. I see a Rip Hamilton caliber player in him – not quite the same shooting accuracy, but a better overall skillset. Needs a distributing PG.

5. Michael Kidd Gilchrist - Can’t shoot yet, but should be a solid complimentary player at worst.

6. Dion Waiters – Blind faith in John Hollinger’s numbers, which love Waiters.

7. John Henson – He’s skinny and not the world’s great athlete but his length is better than Davis and Drummond. Paired with a beefier big man who can score he can be a great defensive asset. Poor man’s Camby. Hoping Pistons get him at 9.

8. Bradley Beal – Don’t feel strongly, but trusting the pundits and analysts that say he’s a better shooter than his college numbers suggest. He’s young and sounds like a good kid. Decent chance he’s this year’s version of Brandon Knight, who I called risky last year and labeled him as a bust. (Can’t get em all – of the 6 busts I listed only Knight looks like he’s going to prove me wrong, so far.)

9. Jared Sullinger – too effective to slide past the lottery, even if he is hurt frequently (which is why he is sliding in the first place)

10. Terrence Jones – 6’10 with great athleticism and versatility and projects well with Hollinger. Remind me of Lamar Odom with a little less length and without the dribbling ability (of course) but maybe a little more physical and a better shooter.

Just Missed:
Quincy Miller – loved him as a sleeper before and then Hollinger ranked him as a top 10 pick. Long SF with athleticism that can shoot.

Damian Lillard – Hollinger’s model doesn’t like him, but he’s got great all-around numbers and character. Sounds like a great fit for Portland (where he is projected to go.) Low ceiling though.

Busts:

Meyers Leonard –Impressive skills but the kid is blatantly not productive and doesn’t seem to have the personality to get there.

Tyler Zeller – don’t see his skill set translating to the NBA, though he could maybe be a serviceable big man – not lotto worthy

Austin Rivers – hate everything about him.

Perry Jones III – have to draft him for the upside, but not inside the lotto. Anthony Randolph without the shot-blocking?

Tony Wroten – Some make comparisons to Rondo, but there are a lot of super-athletic PGs that can’t shoot – most don’t stick in the NBA. 2nd Rounder.

Kendall Marshall – Don’t think he has the athleticism to make it, but he’s fun to watch, so I hope he does.

Moe Harkless – ranked as fringe lotto projection – I don’t see it.

Middle of round 1: Jeremy Lamb (mini Jalen Rose), Terrence Ross (generic athletic wing), Royce White (eccentric but skilled forward), Arnett Moultrie (stretch 4 that can rebound), Marquis Teague (supposed to be better than his brother and overshadowed at Kentucky like Eric Bledsoe was), Draymond Green (versatile team player and winner, but a marginal athlete)

Late Round 1/Sleepers: Hollis Thompson – 6’8 shooter hit 43%, 46%, and 44% of 3s in Georgetown. 6’8 and a good athlete hough his shooting 68% from FT is a concern. Jeff Taylor – shooter/defender, should be a decent role player Will Barton – great length and athleticism Doron Lamb – decent chance he was overlooked in Kentucky Fab Melo – oddball big man, should be able to defend Miles Plumlee – Tested very well at combine and he’s a 7 footer. Probably sucks though. Festus Ezell – Outside chance he could be a poor man’s Nazr Mohammed. Go get him!

G-O-O-gle bitches!

2012-01-23T15:38:00.000-08:00

Jubilation

2012-01-03T15:56:00.000-08:00

My favorite moment of the Rose Bowl. I love how Chip has his hands on the Refs back for the third jump. About the same thing I was doing in my living room.

Director's Commentary

2011-12-30T13:55:00.000-08:00

Pong So Hard

2011-12-27T14:53:00.000-08:00

NHL Season Hype Video

2011-12-26T16:20:00.001-08:00

NBA Season Hype Video

2011-12-26T09:46:00.000-08:00

Michigan vs Oregon for the BCS

2011-11-21T16:04:00.000-08:00

Alright, it's pretty damn unlikely, but there's a scenario wherein Michigan will go head-to-head against Oregon before BCS bowl committee members for the right to be invited to a lucrative and glory-filled BCS bowl game. The scenario would have to go something like this:

Stanford loses to Notre Dame (10-2)
Michigan beats Ohio State (10-2)
Oregon loses in Pac12 title game (10-3)

I'll ignore Stanford and assume (perhaps incorrectly) that Oregon gets the Pac12's potential 2nd slot ahead of them by virtue of the head-to-head victory. The focus here is on Michigan-Oregon, because, well who reading this cares about Stanford?

Now, I'm not going to argue about who DESERVES to go based on their season. It's too complicated. Oregon has 3 losses but played probably a tougher schedule and more games. They've also indisputably more successful over the last 5 years. Vegas would favor them by 10 points head-to-head. The strikes against them would be losing 2 of their last 3 games. I think if they lost to Oregon State Michigan would definitely be in ahead of them, but at 10-3 a case could be made. But this is all beside the point because the bowls and the BCS care very little about who DESERVES what. It's about money - ratings, hotels, advertising, attention, tickets, etc. From this basis I will make my argument.

MICHIGAN for:

History, tradition - things that theoretically shouldn't matter, but do. Notre Dame gets ratings - so does Michigan. That's just how it is. People either want to see them win or want to see them fail. The fight song is familiar, the program icons are known. People will watch. But Michigan's big edge is fanbase. Theirs is rejuvenated, excited, and winter-bound. That means hotels in Phoenix or New Orleans or Miami are going to get sold and local businesses and chambers of commerce (tied closely to the Bowls) are going to be happy. In short, Michigan has a huge fanbase and following and that gives them a leg-up on most schools.

OREGON:

Well, they have sexy offense and certainly a brand. They too, are a team that, coming of the national championship game, people want to watch. You can make a case that their ratings would rival Michigan's. But will they sell tickets? We're talking about maybe the 3rd largest school in a low-population state. Oregon has roughly the same number of people as Puerto Rico, Oklahoma, and Connecticut.

So who wins:

Perhaps I'm a cynic, but I think it might be Oregon and the reason is this:
Nike. Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony on your sideline. Phil Knight making under the table pay-offs and over the table deals. Vertical integrations and market leveraging and money money in your face. Green-glitter sparkle shoulder pads and gold-plated swoosh. Some sort of messed up Xmas ditty in there I think.

Am I wrong?

The Paradox of NFL Censorship

2011-11-05T13:29:00.000-07:00

This WSJ article reports on the NFL's refusal to allow the public more than fleeting glimpses of bird's eye view video footage of games.

This presents a paradox.

Ostensibly, consumers would get more enjoyment out of the product, if allowed to see this perspective. (Unless you make the argument that it would somehow lift the curtain and reveal something mundane. This argument being that demystification leads to disillusion).

So the league could offer a more robust product than it currently does.

Yet the league withholds this all-encompassing angle. Why does it do so?

Maybe the logic is that letting teams monopolize this privileged information makes for more exciting action (from the normal televised perspective). Maybe its that if this view went public, teams would not be able to produce such attractive contests (The assumption being that having a corner on intelligence leads to more interesting match-ups, play calling, etc.).

So, it would seem the logic goes, deprive fans on the front end to ensure a more marketable product on the back end.

Not really sure what the rational is, but it is quite a let down to now know that I am not actually getting the complete picture of this phenomenon that I spend so many hours staring at.

Bet Accordingly

2011-10-15T06:05:00.001-07:00

U-M football 2011 Predictions

2011-08-29T13:36:00.000-07:00

I'm doing this again because my predictions were pretty decent last year (right record, ND wrong cancelled by 1-2 prediction instead of 0-3 vs MSU/Iowa/PSU) .

Season in chunks...

Part 1: WMU, ND, EMU, SDSU : 3-1
Part 2: Minn, @NW, @MSU : 2-1
MSU and ND have a lot of returning talent and Michigan will still be going through an adjustment period. Even if they manage to pull an upset in either rivalry game, SDSU and @NW are not sure wins. A 4-3 record would be a significant disappointment.

Part 3: Purdue, @Iowa, @Ill : 3-0
Road games are always scary, but Iowa and Illinois both lost a lot from last season. Michigan should be settling in by midseason and will have had 2 road games behind them during this stretch.

Part 4: Nebraska, OSU : 1-1
Nebraska is probably too good, though you never know with homefield advantage. OSU is tough to evaluate but they're very thin along the OL, so by the end of the season could have some problems. While they'll always be up for the Michigan game and they still have a ton of veteran talent, I wonder about team morale if they have a disappointing start. I also wonder about the lack of offensive superstars. With The Game being in Ann Arbor I think their streak ends.

Total: 9-3

I know 8-4 is probably more realistic. One too many narrow victories in my prediction (SDSU, OSU and all the road games) which is difficult considering the FG kicking remains suspect at best. But...There's a chance that an unexpected loss evens out with an unexpected upset. I don't envision Michigan getting blown out in any of the 3 losses I predicted. MSU in particular seems like it could come down to a coin flip... Night game atmosphere vs ND... Nebraska could look much different in November... With some luck, a Big10 title game invite is possible.

Leading rusher (RB):
Thomas Rawls. No fucking clue really, but I said Mike Cox last year which was dead wrong not just because of Denard so let's try again with the darkhorse thing. The hype train for Rawls seems to have made it through Summer only slightly dinged. Let's say they spread it around early in the year and Rawls emerges late. Plus Shaw looks fragile.

Leading receiver:
Roy Roundtree. New role, but I think Denard trusts him and he knows how to get open. It could be anyone though - Hemingway, Odoms, even the TE.

Leading passer:
Not Tate Forcier.

Random DL predictions:
Walk-on DL storyline will save us from Jordan Kovacs storylines. Will Campbell will still suck.

Random LB prediction:
Mike Jones and Cam Gordon will be better than most people expect. Carvin Johnson will play more (at Safety) than Jones though, due to all the nickel/dime packages.

Random DB prediction:
A lot of people are going to be mad at Jordan Kovacs. Carvin Johnson ends up starting more than 5 games (at one spot or another.)

Random special teams predictions:
The kick returns will be way better and I won't be able to tell you why. The FG kickers will be better than 4-14, but will actually frustrate us more because of timing and frequency of use.

Michigan 2011 Offense Preview

2011-08-01T13:18:00.000-07:00

The transition to pro-style offense might not be as painful as most seem to think. Remember Iowa? Michigan began that game with a nearly 5 minute TD drive, primarily with plays out of the I-form.

Manball

Fake

Molk got hurt and the offense went back to mostly spread after that, but for one drive we got to see a glimpse of 2011. And this against one of the better defenses in the conference(though aided by the element of surprise.) Denard can be good w/o the spread. Hopefully he can stay healthier too.

This was another game where the starting QB got hurt, but we still saw some power running after that.

And if they struggle... you don't need to be Rich Rodriguez to run this:

You just need pass protection. Good thing the OL has a bunch of 4th and 5th year returning starters plus a future NFL 1st round pick.

And also...you can always call the play known as "QB run with ball" and let your awesome be awesome w/o any sort of strategic genius:

2011 NBA Draft

2011-06-19T09:48:00.000-07:00

Lankownia’s 2011 Draft Board:

1. E.Kanter
2. D.Williams
3. K.Irving
4. B.Biymbo
5. J.Valanciunas
6. T.Harris
7. N.Mirotic
8. A.Burks
9. T. Thompson
10. N.Vucevic

Here are my thoughts on the 2009 draft and the 2010 draft.

Kanter is bull and no else is even close to him in this draft. I worry about Williams transition to the NBA, but his offensive skills are impressive for a PF. Irving is Mike Conley - safe pick, not bad at anything, though I'd be surprised if he becomes a star. Biyombo is Serge Ibaka. The 3 euros impress me for various reasons (Vucevic is extremely long, 7'0 260 lb, and put up 17-10 at USC, Valunciunas is very young and filled with potential, and Mirotic is a proven player - a 6'10 shooter can play a big role). Burks seems like his weaknesses can easily be coached up. Thompson's a safe pick due to defense (shut down Williams), but low ceiling since his height and athleticism don’t stand out and he’s a horrible FT shooter. Now the guy (besides Kanter) I like way more than others:

Tobias Harris: Some guys are better NBA players than college. They say the drawback with him is that he lacks the athleticism to be an SF, but when I watched him play he looked like a poor man’s Carmelo Anthony or maybe Paul Pierce . His skill level at that size stands out – he just needs some time with good coaches. I think he can contribute right away despite being 18, with an outside chance at developing into a star. More likely, he'll be a Tayshaun Prince kind of supporting player (though not the same type of game).

Just missed:

J.Johnson
D.Morris
C.Jenkins
J.Tyler

JaJuan Johnson: Had him in my top 10 but chickened out in the end. To me, he's a better version of Theo Ratliff, or if you prefer, a poor man’s Tyson Chandler. He’s probably a better scorer and athlete than either, but has more questions about strength/weight in the long-term. Get him with some professional trainers and he’ll be a legit NBA big man. At home on pick-and-rolls but could struggle against (more an dmore unusual) back-to-the-basket scorers like Kanter. Should be a valuable NBA rotation player.

Charles Jenkins – Great shooter, proven scorer albeit at Hofstra (supposedly out-played Kemba Walker though). A scoring PG with a good outside shot and length to be a decent defender.

Darius Morris. Pure point guard with great size. He’s Andre Miller, even his freshman and sophomore stats are similar. Morris doesn’t have elite quickness or athleticism but is a fairly smart kid and will be resourceful enough to get by on defense. The encouraging thing is that his jump shot form shows some promise to eventually extend out, but his FT% is in the low 70’s so... it’s unclear if he develops that.

Jeremy Tyler. Was hyped nearly as much as OJ Mayo and Lebron while in high school. Then he went pro in Europe&Asia before finishing high school and had difficulty. His measurements are very good for the NBA. May be another DeAndre Jordan type steal – or he may be a clueless fool. Either way, it’s worth the risk for a potential franchise C.

Busts:

J. Fredette
J. Vesely
M. Morris
M. Morris
K. Walker
B. Knight

Pretty confident on Fredette and Vesely not becoming players. Not impressed with the length or athleticism of the Morris twins even though they have the jumpers. Knight is great kid and athlete, but doesn't have an NBA skill and supposedly can't go left- extremely risky. Walker, another great kid, but I think he's too small. It's all about fit with him and finding a team where an undersized scorer who demands the ball can be used. I'd draft him in the teens at the highest.

worth drafting in round 1:

Jon Leuer – quality college player at near 7 feet with a very strong outside shoot. Seems like he can be a stretch big off the bench.

Keith Benson – legit C with great size and a decent skill set.

Kyle Singler – he’s nearly 6’9 and can score. His game has been picked to death and yeah, he’s not an elite athlete, but some people are just good at playing basketball and that’s all you need to worry about.

Reggie Jackson - huge wingspan and athleticism make him intriguing

Dunno:

I have a hard time judging college wing players.

K.Thompson – Didn’t play at a high level school and is already 21, but if you’re 6’7 and can shoot 40% from 3, without any major deficiencies - you have a shot.

C. Singleton – supposedly a great defender but I think that’s a really hard thing to project to the NBA. I prefer SFs who can hit 3s with some regularity, but maybe that develops.

K. Leonard - Similar to Singleton, I don't see a real NBA skill, but John Hollinger says he's a lock to be good and I generally trust him.

J. Hamilton - 6'8 and a talented scorer but he seems like a dumbass, could be a better NBA player than college

K.Faried - great numbers and a fun hustling player, but he's 6'7 in shoes. Hard to imagine another Dennis Rodman, but that's what Faried seems to be targeting. He's probably not going to be a player, but I hate to count him out totally. Consistent effort is a talent.

NBA Finals Analysis

2011-06-02T22:11:00.001-07:00

The 5 Dirtiest Programs in College Football | 5thquartersports.com

2011-05-19T15:58:00.000-07:00

The 5 Dirtiest Programs in College Football | 5thquartersports.com

Auburn and Oregon may have more in common than we originally thought.

Nate Asks, Lank Answers

2011-05-17T14:07:00.000-07:00

"I think there are a lot of questions that we have to answer," McMillan said. "The first thing is to balance the roster. The combination of the twos that we have -- with Wesley [Matthews], Rudy [Fernandez] and Brandon [Roy] -- that combination is just... really... there's no way we can play the three of those guys.

Nate, that's not technically a question, but Lank agrees. One's got to go and its probably Rudy. He's cheap and therefore easy to move - he also might benefit from a new situation. People in Portland rarely cross the Rocky Mountains let alone understand what Europe is. Send him to the Knicks, where he'll be around people who appreciate spanish meats and are equally indifferent to playing defense.

"Now that we've brought in Gerald Wallace, Nicolas [Batum]'s contract will be coming up pretty soon. What's going to happen in that situation?

Pay him, stupid. Batum's your best young player. Gerald is great fun, but he's a tweener and would ideally be a 6th man. Besides, his contract also expires soon and he'll be a very dirty 30 by then.

"Our backup point guard, our guard position. I played Brandon at that spot most of the second half of the season. We've got to look at the point guard position."

Its not just backup thats an issue. If you're going to keep playing Roy, you need a shooter beside him, not Andre Miller. This remains a terrible pairing. While its not a deficiency, an upgrade to your PG position is the biggest opportunity to elevate the franchise from perrenial 1st round loser status. Tell your GM to see what he can do about that.

As for the backup - draft Darius Morris - he's basically the same thing as Andre Miller but 2 decades younger.

"And Brandon Roy. How did he come out of the season and what [is] his role going to be?

Wait, did you not watch the end of the season Nate? Because that explains a lot.

If an amnesty clause comes up in the new collective bargaining agreement (where a contract can be dropped without salary cap ramifications - though you still have to pay the guy), BRoy's would be an obvious decision. Otherwise, backup SG, no? He's a MAX-wreck on D and not much good w/o the ball in his hands. Roy needs to embrace that role: You don't play any time Andre Miller does. If you're on - you can close games. If not - get ready to high five dudes during timeouts.

"There's a number of things I think we have to address. Backup center. Is Greg [Oden]... when will he be ready to go next season?"

Who? Oh...yeah...him - you're seriously asking? The answer isn't NO, its Not Ever. Sign him then trade him for a late first round pick or two to whatever schlub still thinks he's worth a shot (TWolves? Pistons?). Use said aquired picks it to draft JaJuan Johnson, Kenneth Faried, or one of the other springy college big men that can give you a better version of what Chris Johnson, Przybilla, Pendergraph, and Cunningham have contributed in the last couple years. Theres a Brazilian out there with a 7-6 wingspan (Nogueira) and Brazilians are always awesome. Keith Benson's an NBA player. This guy's pretty ugly, so will fit in instantly. Chumbawumba jokes from those announcers are lacking too. Or even get one of those Morris twins so that you have a big man who can shoot 3s, since most of guards can't.

Glad to help. If you ever need my input again Nate, just holler.

Eastern Conference Series Outcome Matrix

2011-03-10T13:33:00.000-08:00

for your gambling pleasure:

ORL beats Bos ORL loses to Chi ORL beats Mia

BOS loses to Orl BOS loses to Mia BOS beats Chi

CHI beats Orl CHI loses to Bos CHI beats Mia

MIA beats Bos MIA loses to Chi MIA loses to Orl

The only pick I suggest some caution with is Miami/Orlando.

Gerald Wallace - Blazer

2011-02-24T12:28:00.001-08:00

Great trade! Now I don't have to be depressed whenever I watch the Blazers because Joel Przybilla is such a pained shell of what he was.

Beyond that, I love using Wallace as a 4 beside Aldridge @5 because he's an excellent rebounder. I don't love him at 3 instead of Batum but I'd be surprised if you saw Miller, Wallace, and Camby playing at the same time very often. My hope is that they use Wallace as a 6th-man at the 3 and 4. Kind of like Outlaw but without all the inefficient shot attempts.

It makes the Blazers a better team this year and certainly a more entertaining one. Fans will love Wallace. While the 1st round picks will be missed, I think the makes sense for a somewhat depressed fan-base and franchise to get some positive direction after the Roy-Oden injuries.

Nice Shot

2011-02-14T15:26:00.000-08:00

Eddie House, consider yourself challenged.

Still Bitter

2011-02-14T14:37:00.000-08:00

Are you fraking kidding me? A hand down in bounds?

Go for the miss

2011-02-07T08:41:00.000-08:00

via advanced NFL stats

Should the Packers have gone for it on 4th and goal from the 5 on their final drive of the game?

They opted for the easy FG to go up by 6. The Steelers would now need a touchdown, but often, forcing a team to go for the win rather than the tie can be counter-productive. This might be a little abstract, but by channeling your opponent into a more aggressive, and likely more optimal risk/reward posture, might not be smart. In other word, even if GB fails on the 4th down TD attempt, the Steelers are left at or inside their 5 yd-line and are "thinking FG."

From the 5, conversions are successful 37% of the time. A successful conversion puts GB up by 10 points, sealing the win with a 1.00 WP. A failed conversion gives PIT the ball at their own 5 with 2:10 to play, worth 0.87 WP to GB. On net, the go-for-it option is worth a 0.92 WP.

FGs from the 5 are good 97% of the time. Going up by 6 and kicking off is with worth 0.75 WP. A missed FG puts the ball on the 20, worth 0.83 WP. On net the FG option is worth 0.75 WP.

WAIT! Did I just say that missing the FG would be better than making it? Yes, that's exactly what I said, and historically, that's exactly the case. The reason is likely because teams down by 3 play for the FG in that situation, while teams down by 6 are forced to play for the win. Once inside FG range, they pull up and stop taking risks, accepting a long FG attempt that, even if successful, only buys them a tie--0.50 WP. I suspect Tomlin would be thinking differently, so the answer to whether the Packers should have gone for it isn't so clear. But based on league-baseline numbers, and some counter-intuitive thinking, going for it would have been the better decision by large margin, about 0.15 WP.

Breaking down the Blazer Trade

2011-01-29T17:47:00.000-08:00

I agree with all this.

A Historically Great Season - For One Blazer

2011-01-29T17:13:00.000-08:00

Portland's Marcus Camby has nabbed a whopping 35.4 percent of missed shots when he plays, although his recent knee injury may end up keeping him just shy of 2,000 minutes. If he can meet that threshold, Camby will have the second-best defensive rebound rate by a 2,000-minute player ever, with only Rodman's 1992-93 season (a ridiculous 36.8) topping it. Among players with at least 1,000 minutes it ranks third.

G of the Weak

2011-01-29T02:41:00.000-08:00

Nothing says tough like hitting a guy named Channing in the nuts