OnTheBlack – Kerel Cooper shares his favorite Strawberry/Gooden memories.

Mack’s Mets – The Brooklyn Cyclones won again last night, thanks in part to a 9th inning suicide squeeze. The Cyclones now have a five-game lead on the second-place Staten Island Yankees.

MetsBlog – Matt Cerrone quotes Mike Newman from Scouting the Sally on Wilmer Flores’ potential as a hitter. I have to say I agree with Newman – Flores’ swing is somewhat underwhelming. But mechanics can be taught and improved – especially if Flores has the God-given talent to work with.

Check out the videos below. Hopefully, Joe can chime in on this topic:

Matt Himelfarb: Mets fans are mindless sheeple brainwashed by Nazi-esque propagandists such as yourself and Matt Cerrone. How are you so good at hiding the truth?

Ted Berg: It’s not easy, and it requires Andy Kaufman-esque dedication to staying in character. My career would be ruined if they found out I’m a secret Phillies fan and just doing this for the paycheck. WAIT, ARE YOU PUBLISHING THIS?

MH: Take us through how you got the SNY gig. I have never seen you write anywhere else before. Did you just jump straight from journalism school to the Shea Stadium press box? Did you have any prior journalism experience?

TB: It’s kind of a long story, but I didn’t go to journalism school (though I considered it). I was in a grad-school arts/literature program and planned to go into academia. After the spring semester in 2006 I needed nine more credits to get my master’s, so I started looking for part-time jobs so I could save up some money before I applied to doctoral programs. I saw a part-time editing job at MLB.com on Craig’s List, so I applied and got it, at least partly because my new bosses thought it was hilarious that I had been a vendor at Shea.

SNY runs its website in partnership with MLB.com and I worked on the site a lot when I was there. A couple months after I was hired I happened to have tickets to Mike Piazza’s return to Shea, so my boss asked if I wanted to write something up about the fan perspective. I did and he liked it. That led to a series of features about offbeat and unheralded sporting events around the city and then, eventually, the site’s Mets blog (later renamed a Mets column).

A year and a half later, after I took on a bunch more responsibilities on the site, SNY hired me to help coordinate the web efforts from this side of the partnership. And the job has expanded from there.

I wrote a column for the school paper in college and co-hosted a sports TV show on the campus television show, but I had no professional journalism experience before I got hired at MLB.com. All my jobs to that point had been in education or food services. Oh, and a few awful months in a temp job at Macys.com.

MH: Describe Ted Berg back in the day. Were you an athlete growing up? Was most time spent philosophizing about the superiority of wOBA to OPS over cheesy nachos? Who would you say stood out as influences on your writing, whether they be authors, columnists, etc.?

TB: I played football through high school and I think I was actually pretty decent at it, which surprises a lot of people because I’m a rather mellow guy now. My friends and I were hardly jocks, but we played sports constantly: mostly football, stickball and basketball, though I went through a roller hockey phase also. I did lots of other stuff too: music, student government, the relentless and mostly fruitless pursuit of female attention. Pretty busy kid.

I’m not sure wOBA had even been invented when I first got into baseball stats. I was in 10^th grade, so the big revelation for me was coming to understand that on-base percentage was more important than batting average. My friend Ripps introduced me to the concepts and turned me on to Rob Neyer’s writing. And we spent a whole, whole lot of time talking about baseball and going to games and everything. The summer of ’98 was my first with a car, and all the homers got us pretty well hooked. Oh, and Taco Bell was a constant. I grew up in reasonable proximity to three different Taco Bells, so we could pretty much stop at Taco Bell on the way to or from anyplace we were going.

As for influences, I’m a little embarrassed to say I didn’t read a whole lot of sportswriting growing up. I read a ton, but almost exclusively fiction. I loved Roald Dahl when I was a kid and John Steinbeck in late high school and early college, and I’m pretty sure I’ve read every word Kurt Vonnegut has ever published. Also a lot of Nabokov, though that was – predictably, I guess – a grad-school thing. All told, though, I’d guess my parents are the biggest influence on my writing. They’re funny people, and my mom’s big on grammar.

MH: What do you think is the key to good baseball writing? To me, it seems like baseball is, relatively speaking, a simple subject, where the talent difference between your average fan and analyst, is not really significant. How can a writer or blogger really distinguish himself?

TB: I wish I knew. I’d guess it has to be some combination of clarity, vigilance, quality of writing and personality, but I don’t think there’s any formula to it. I read some people for the information, some for the analysis, some for the prose, and some for reasons I still can’t figure out. Really depends what you’re going for, I guess. And I suppose the first step is to know what you’re going for.

MH: Do you sometimes find it tiring writing about the Mets so much? I mean, I feel like you can only write about how Jeff Francoeur is overrated so many times before you feel like it’s all part of the same premise (Omar hates sabermetrics and is generally incompetent) which most educated baseball fans already realize?

TB: Ahh, well, yes. I mean, there’s no topic I’d rather cover than baseball, but I do often feel like I’m saying the same thing over and over again. The Mets do a pretty good job of finding new and fascinating ways to inspire my brand of internet snark, though. But a big reason I started the blog is to have the freedom to write about things other than the Mets. And I think writing about Taco Bell, squirrels, sandwiches, Tadeuz Kosciuzko and whatever else actually helps me with the Mets stuff by keeping my mind fresh. Some people can write about the Mets every single day and I envy them for it. But I might go crazy.

MH: How do you think your writing has evolved over the last three-four years? How do you feel you have improved as journalist?

TB: Sometimes I’m not sure I have, but generally when I look back at things I wrote a few years ago – even things I really liked at the time – I find it seems like I was trying too hard. I think and hope I’ve pared down some of the pretense and artsy-fartsyness in the interest of clarity, and I prefer it that way. I’m a bit more measured, too, for better or worse.

MH: Do you have any TV aspirations? Does SNY realize I’ve watched every Mets yearbook three times over? Can we get the baseball show on the air for a half-hour?

TB: Well I’m not sure the Baseball Show would work as a half hour program, but yeah, I like to be on TV. I’m not much of a self-promoter though and I can’t bring myself to seriously lobby for more airtime, so I just sort of take what comes. My dream has always been to host my own late-night talk show, but I haven’t yet entirely figured out how to translate that part of my personality onto the screen.

MH: Given your SNY access, are you privy to inside info and sources like most reporters? Or do you mostly not concern yourself with this and spend most of your time editorializing?

TB: I have a season credential, but since I only go to about half the Mets’ home games, tops. I’ve never developed anything like the relationships with players and team personnel that the beat guys do. I pick up the occasional snippet of inside info, but nothing about the anonymous-source thing really appeals to me. I’m happy whistling at the wind.

MH: In general, how do you think the Mets should approach the upcoming trade deadline? Where do you see the Mets finishing this year? Will Omar and Jerry finally get the axe?

TB: I think their best move, considering how they’ve been playing, would be to hold their cards. They’ve got a decent crop of young players coming up the pike and I’d hate to see them mortgage the future if it might not make that big of a difference anyway. Since the two biggest difference-makers are off the board and it looks like Oswalt will be prohibitively expensive in terms of prospects, I’d rather they try go with what they’ve got and see what shakes out. Ted Lilly’s not going to make much of a difference if they can’t score more than a run a game.

I think they’ll finish second or third, but out of the Wild Card. I said 84 wins before the season and I think that still seems reasonable now. And I think 84 wins would mean a new manager and GM in Flushing in 2011. But then baseball is a difficult thing to predict.

The Phils sent JA Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar to Houston in exchange for Roy Oswalt and a considerable amount of cash — the Astros will be picking up about half of the $22M left on Oswalt’s contract.

This gives the Phillies a starting rotation that starts with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels — not too shabby.

Meanwhile, the Mets did nothing — and why would they? After a full day of meetings on Monday, they came to the conclusion that the team is just fine the way it is, with enough talent to get into the playoffs. They proved that beyond a measure of doubt by taking two of three from the Cardinals in their first series after the pow-wow.

Everyone criticizing the Phillies for this deal claims that Oswalt is old and stinks. Let’s hope that’s the case. And let’s hope he’s not one of the top ten pitchers in the NL (WHIP and Ks aren’t really indicative of a pitcher’s value, right?). Though, pitching isn’t everything in baseball — you still have to score runs. And we know the Phillies struggle mightily offensively.

If nothing else, this trade sort of fulfills at least one of my predictions from this year — though, it does appear Jayson Werth is still in Philadelphia. One out of three ain’t bad, right?

In other news, the Marlins jettisoned Met-killer Jorge Cantu to Texas, the Orioles sent Miguel Tejada to San Diego, and the Nationals traded Matt Capps to Minnesota for young catcher Wilson Ramos.

I wonder if the Mets considered acquiring Tejada to play 2B? That’s really the only position where the Mets had an opportunity to upgrade. He was playing third in Baltimore, and likely will do the same for the Padres, moving Chase Headley to the outfield.

The mighty Mets continue their domination of the National League.

Due to my “real” job I missed seeing the game live, so thanks to Paul and Mic for helping out with the recap in the comments section.

Game Notes

R.A. Dickey flicked floaters for eight-plus frames, holding the Cardinals scoreless on four hits as he cruised to his 7th win of the year. Rather than finish the game, he let Francisco Rodriguez come in and get the final two outs for his 22nd save.

The Mets received all the runs they needed when Ike Davis delivered a monster blast over the centerfield wall to give the home team a 3-0 lead in the third inning.

As Mic noted in the comments section, the Mets beat the Cards without regulars David Wright, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, and Rod Barajas.

At some point in October, when the Mets are in the middle of sweeping the Padres in the NLCS, we will all look back at the closed door meetings from Monday and this series win over St. Louis as the turning point of the season.

Next Mets Game

The Mets host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field on Thursday night at 7:10 PM. Mike Pelfrey pitches against Ian Kennedy.

NY Post – The Mets faked interest in Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Dan Haren. And now it looks like they have no intention or shot at acquiring Ted Lilly. To be fair though, they do seem hellbent on bringing quasi-racist female boxer Brett Myers into the fold, proving once again that Omar Minaya and Jeff Wilpon really know what they’re doing. Unfortunately for Omar and Jeff, the Astros seem to be holding on to Myers.

Fire Wayne Hagin – No news here, but an absolutely fantastic blog dedicated to getting Wayne Hagin fired. Hey, if Wayne is fired can somebody PLEASE allow Howie Rose to call games by himself, a la Vin Scully? Howie might be the only announcer left that can do that. Hell, he practically calls the game himself as it stands now. It’s not like Hagin is adding the perspective of a former player – unless you count Hagin’s high school career.

And here’s the latest from Kerel Cooper, who was on the field yesterday during batting practice, along with several other Mets bloggers:

TODAY’S GAME

The Mets (51-50) take on the Cardinals (56-45) in the rubber game of a three-game series. R.A. Dickey (6-4, 2.55) will face Blake Hawksworth (4-6, 5.23). First pitch is at 12:10pm EST.

Deja vu all over again.

The last time Johan Santana and Jaime Garcia hooked up, the result was a 20-inning snorefest. Both starters were absolutely spectacular, each leaving after 7 frames of shutout ball.

This time, the matchup was kind of the same, only different. Like the last time, Santana and Garcia had similar outings — except, they were both the opposite of spectacular. OK, that’s not fair — Garcia wasn’t that bad (though Johan was). Santana allowed 7 runs on 13 hits and a walk in 5 2/3 innings. Garcia went one more out, finishing a full six, and he gave up “only” 3 runs on 6 hits and 3 walks. Immediately after Garcia left the game, however, flamethrower Mitchell Boggs came in and allowed four scores to make it seven-all. Then, the snorefest began.

There was another difference contrasting this extra-inning game and the one from mid-April: Francisco Rodriguez made an appearance BEFORE tossing 100+ warmups in the bullpen.

Oh, one other difference — the Mets didn’t win. Shame, really, because they tried so damn hard, fighting back and all.

Game Notes

We already posted Johan’s numbers, and he did look pretty awful. His velocity was around 89-91, but he was laying his fastball over the middle of the plate, belt high, during his entire outing. Eventually, Major League hitters will hit a 90-MPH fastball over the middle of the plate — and hard. When he wasn’t serving up meatballs, he was missing the strike zone completely on all pitches. My eyes saw him getting under the ball frequently, particularly on the changeup — meaning, his elbow was lower than normal, and his fingers were underneath or to the side of the ball at release. The result is something that looks like “pushing” the ball, and poor command.

Prior to this start, Santana had allowed only eight runs over his last 44.0 innings dating back to June 26th. The 13 hits he allowed were a career high — his previous high was 12 hits, accomplished twice, most recently on July 24, 2009 with the Mets at Houston.

Mike Hessman is a big dude — like, Troy Glaus big. He’s a monster. He’s so big, Ike Davis looks small standing next to him, and Ike is a pretty big dude himself. Discussing his size with friend and fellow blogger Matthew Artus , Matt put it best by saying: “the Empire State Building looks small next to Hessman”. No argument here.

In the bottom of the 6th, David Wright led off with a rocket off the base of the left field fence, and was thrown out by Matt Holliday trying to stretch a single into a double. Moments later, Carlos Beltran blasted his first homer of the game. Most Mets fans and media likely will point to Wright’s over-aggressiveness as the reason the game was lost, since after all, had he remained on first base, Beltran’s bomb would’ve been a two-run shot and the Mets would’ve eventually scored 8 runs instead of 7 and they would’ve won and the game never would’ve gone to extra innings. However, I am not sure that Beltran would’ve gotten that same exact pitch with Wright standing on second base. Pitchers choose their pitches based on the situation, and oftentimes will go with a “chase” pitch with runners in scoring position. With one out and the bases empty, Garcia tried to sneak a fastball by Beltran, figuring that if he hit it out, it’s only one run. With a runner in scoring position, he may have started Beltran with a breaking pitch, or a fastball in a different location.

The final out of the top of the 13th came when John Jay tried to score from third on a wild pitch. Josh Thole flipped the ball in plenty of time to Raul Valdes, and Jay tried to slide around Valdes. Maybe I’m old school, but if I’m John Jay, I am tearing into Valdes full-force like an offensive guard on a sweep and demolishing him to try to knock the ball loose. As a Met fan, I’m glad Jay didn’t do that, but as a baseball fan, I wonder why players are so soft these days.

With this loss the Mets have dropped three extra-inning games in eight days.

All eight runs scored by the Cardinals came with two outs. The Mets have allowed 170 runs to score with two outs — almost 43% of the total runs they’ve allowed (398). I have no idea if that is a significant stat.

This was the longest game ever at Citi Field, in terms of innings (13).

Next Mets Game

The rubber match occurs on Thursday afternoon at 12:10 PM (huh?). R.A. Dickey will be taking the hill against Blake Hawksworth of the Cardinals.

MetsLifer – Dave at MetsLifer thinks the Mets need another starting pitcher, but he’s convinced they won’t acquire one.

MetsMerizedOnline – Joe D wishes the Mets were motivated by winning and not by ticket sales. Has anyone else noticed that the Mets seem to make one big ticket acquisition every off-season since Omar took over? Just one… just enough to keep us interested.

MLB Trade Rumors – MLBTR is reporting that the Mets are seeking a reliever who is “overpriced” and “underperforming.” Is this bizarro world?

MyCentralJersey.com – Bill Pulsipher just signed with the Somerset Patriots of the Atlantic League. Neither here nor there… But still somewhat interesting, to me, at least.

TONIGHT’S GAME

The Mets (51-49) look to make in two wins in a row against the St. Louis Cardinals (55-45). Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79) will face Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21).

According to the formula we used yesterday, the Mets Meaningful Number still stands at 19. The number is closer to 18 than 19, but we are going to round that number up, since it’s not possible to win .05 games. In short, progress was made last night, but more will have to be made to push the number to 18.

The Mets are currently tied with Colorado for fifth place in the wildcard race, 5.5 games behind San Francisco.

“I saw my picture in the paper (on Tuesday) and I was just glad it wasn’t a police photo.”

-Wally Backman (NorthJersey.com)

Mets Gazette – Would you rather the Mets make a playoff run or go on a losing streak that results in a major housecleaning?

NorthJersey.com – Bob Klapisch thinks Wally Backman could be the Mets savior.

MetsMerizedOnline – Brett Myers threw a gem last night, striking out 12 in a complete game victory. I feel like I’m watching a car crash unfold in front of me in slow motion.

MetsBlog – Jason Bay will be reevaluated in 2-3 days and a DL stint is possible.

New York Times – Tickets are still available for Sunday’s HOF Cash Grab (via The Mets Police).

And here’s Kerel Cooper from OnTheBlack.com, sharing his thoughts on Angel Pagan:

Clearly, the Mets front office knows EXACTLY what they’re doing.

Because after coming to the decision that Jerry Manuel and his coaching staff were the right people to be in charge, and in particular decided that no one should be a scapegoat for an underperforming offense, the Mets went right out and POUNDED the mighty St. Louis Cardinals. And not only did they beat the Cardinals handily, but they demolished the otherwise outstanding Adam Wainwright — the same Adam Wainwright who had 14 wins and had spun 26 consecutive scoreless innings. The Mets didn’t stop by merely ending his scoreless streak, they stung him to the tune of six runs on six hits and three walks in five innings — no easy feat.

As Jerry Manuel so astutely pointed out in the postgame, the Mets not only won the game, but they “… erased the doubt, coming home …” (please be sure to read that quote as slowly as possible for full effect). I, for one, am completely convinced: the Mets are awesome.

Ironically, the Mets won without their spirited skipper, who was serving a suspension. Hey, wait … many people wanted someone else managing the Mets, someone else did, and the Mets won. Hmmm ….

Leading the offensive charge was none other than Jeff Francoeur. As anyone with a calculator knows, Francoeur is terrible — easily the worst player on the Mets. Yet, it was Francoeur who blasted a three-run homer against the previously invincible Wainwright in the fourth inning to put the Mets ahead for good. If a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, and Francoeur is that weak link, then I am afraid to think what the Mets will do to less-talented NL pitchers.

Game Notes

Jonathon Niese was once again spectacular, spinning six innings and allowing only one run on 7 hits and 2 walks, to earn his 7th win of the season. For the first time this year I liked his arm angle — it was more overhand and more consistent, which gave him good bite on his best pitch (curveball) and made it difficult for the Cardinals hitters to know what was coming. Keep that slot, Jon!

Jose Reyes mashed his seventh homer of the year, a bullet into the upper deck of the Pepsi Porch in right field. I think it’s safe to say he is over the oblique thing.

With his three-run dinger, Jeff Francoeur‘s BABOF (Batting Average on Balls Over the Fence) remains a stellar 1.000.

Carlos Beltran broke out of his slump with a 2-for-3 day, ripping an opposite-field double and poking a Texas Leaguer to drive in a run. He batted in the five hole, which is a better spot for him and the team as he gets back in the groove. Whatever happened to taking it slow and having him play only 2-3 times a week at the outset?

During 1050ESPN’s Michael Kay Show on Tuesday afternoon, Don La Greca positively guaranteed a Mets win on this evening. He’s much better at predictions than I.

Next Mets Game

The Mets continue their assault on the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night at 7:10 PM. I’m not clear on who is starting for either team, but several websites are saying it will be Hisanori Takahashi vs. Jaime Garcia. However, we’re also hearing that Johan Santana will pitch instead. Not that it matters — the Mets can set up a tee for St. Louis and they’ll still have a good shot at beating their brains in. The Mets are on a roll, and there is no stopping them!

Robertson had a 5.47 ERA and 1.5 WHIP through 100 IP this year for the Fish, and was designated for assignment after allowing 8 runs in 5 innings against the Rockies last Tuesday.

Considering the Mets’ lack of pitching depth, and need for a lefthander in particular, it may not be the worst idea to take a flyer on Robertson. He can’t be any worse than Oliver Perez.

Ah, but there’s the rub — Perez will not agree to be demoted, and is a permanent useless fixture on the roster. Oh well.

In related news, Gil Meche may need shoulder surgery, according to a tweet by Ed Price. Meche gave up 7 runs in 4 innings in a rehab assignment in the minors last night.

You may have read about the rumors that the Mets and Royals were talking trade, with Meche and Perez as names possibly mentioned. If indeed they were able to trade Ollie for Meche, it would be a rare case where I wouldn’t fault the Mets for obtaining an already-injured pitcher … such a move would actually be to their advantage by freeing up a roster spot.

Additionally, Jerry Manuel has been suspended for his “ump bump” in Los Angeles.

Further, Rod Barajas was placed on the 15-day DL with a strained oblique. Corner infield slugger Mike Hessman was promoted from AAA to take his place on the roster. Hessman has hit 9 HR in his last 78 MLB at-bats, spanning two years (2007-2008). How does one smack one homer every 8.7 ABs and not get a chance to play for a year and a half?

With Bay, Jeff Francoeur returns to RF and Angel Pagan moves to left. It would be nice to see Chris Carter get some playing time but that doesn’t appear in the plans. Francoeur has 3 hits in 11 ABs (.273) vs. Adam Wainwright, and will get the start this evening. Josh Thole catches in place of Barajas and I imagine will get the bulk of the duty back there for the next two weeks.

With the Mets in a tailspin and the postseason slipping out of reach, let’s take a look at what it will take for the team to play “meaningful games in September.”

By no means is this the definitive way to figure out the “meaningful” number. Consider it a jumping off point for the more statistically-inclined among us to calculate what it will take to achieve Fred Wilpon’s version of success.

For the purposes of this post, we’ll assume that the Mets would need to be within five games of the wildcard on September 1, in order for their games to still be meaningful in the eyes of ownership.

Step 1 – Take the number of games remaining before September 1 and multiply by the winning percentage of the current wildcard leader.

33 x .560 = 18.48

Step 2 – Take the number of games out of the wildcard lead and subtract 5.

5 – 5 = 0

Step 3 – Add the results of Step 1 and 2

18.48 + 0 = 18.48

Step 4 – Take the result from Step 3 and round up

18.48 = 19

So assuming the wildcard leader will play at a .560 clip between now and September, the Mets will have to go 19-14 during that time to remain within five games of the wildcard lead.

The Mets meaningful number currently stands at 19.

Have a better way to calculate the Meaningful Number? Share it in the comments section.

Just for a minute, pretend that you were sitting at the conference table on Monday and had a vote. What would you have recommended? Vote below and/or provide your comments.

Turns out the Mets’ management is completely dysfunctional and in as much disarray as you might imagine.

Somehow, some way, someone convinced somebody that making a change right now was not the right decision.

That said, the coaching staff will indeed remain intact — HoJo included.

In other words, after Omar Minaya told the world that everyone was under review, and after the Mets front office admitted publicly that they were “in discussions” for all of Monday, the final decision was that no change was necessary. Apparently, the final assessment from the “brain trust” is that the team, the coaching staff, and the management as currently constituted is competent, capable, and poised to make a miraculous run over the next 60 games to push the Mets into the postseason and challenge for a World Championship.

And why would we think otherwise?

You may have read or heard Jon Heyman’s report that “there has been no discussion of Howard Johnson” and that Jerry Manuel’s job is “safe”. Kevin Burkhardt is tweeting similar “news”.

However, our sources are reporting quite the opposite.

For one, Johnson’s role was most definitely discussed and almost surely will change. It is possible that he won’t be fired outright — for example, he could be “reassigned” to another area of the organization. Or maybe the Mets will do something like they did in 2008 with Rickey Henderson. Perhaps they’ll hire Darryl Strawberry to teach the players how to swallow fire — who knows? All we know is that HoJo is moving on and Jerry Manuel is about as “safe” as Toyota gas pedal — though he’ll likely remain the manager for at least a few more days.

My guess is that the Mets are still trying to figure out the best way to break the news without upsetting fans of the ’86 Mets and David Wright, and waiting for the “right moment”. Or, maybe our sources are completely wrong.

Regardless of HoJo’s status, the Mets HAVE TO do something — they’ve forced themselves into making a change for the sake of change, at the very least.

*** UPDATE ***
Just got word that Jerry Manuel’s job IS safe for the time being. Though, the Mets have been on the fence before regarding Manuel, and could change their mind again at the drop of a hat.

HoJo is still the focus of whatever “change” is made, however.

Additionally — and also reported in various places — Omar Minaya refused to provide any assurances that the current manager and coaching staff would remain intact for the short-term.

Considering that this information is public, can the Mets afford not to make a change of some sort? In other words, at this point, knowing what we know, and feeling how we feel about the team — that it is sinking quickly and could be irrelevant once the NFL begins workouts — would we as fans be OK with the Mets emerging today and doing nothing?

Maybe, just maybe, a blockbuster trade could provide a glimmer of hope (i.e., convince fans to buy tickets in August and September). Unfortunately, Dan Haren and Cliff Lee have been dealt, and Roy Oswalt is unlikely to accept a trade to a New York team not named the Yankees — though, Adam Rubin has said the Mets aren’t interested anyway. As a result, there appear to be no high-impact, well-known All-Stars available on the market. I doubt very highly that Mets fans would be placated by the acquisition of the likes of Kevin Millwood, Ted Lilly, Scott Downs, Fausto Carmona, Jake Westbrook, or any other so-so pitcher — particularly since the problem lately has been the hitting. Unfortunately for the Mets, no big bat appears to be available — unless you think the Nats would consider trading Adam Dunn to an NL East rival.

So, short of coaxing Barry Bonds out of retirement or raising Babe Ruth from the dead, the Mets will have to make some kind of internal change. The question is, will the change they make be enough to convince fans that the team is on the right track, and worth the (hefty) price of a ticket at Citi Field?

Share your opinion in the comments: what can the Mets do to change your view of the team’s chances in 2010? That is, if you think anything CAN be done to save the 2010 season.

The consensus, in a nutshell, is that the deal is reminiscent of a cross between the Dutch’s purchase of New York City from the Native Americans and the infamous Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano mind-boggler six years ago. In other words, to put it euphemistically, the Diamondbacks got the raw end of the stick here.

What would an equivalent trade with the Mets look like? Mike Pelfrey would probably be a good starting point in place of Joe Saunders. I know, I first rejected this notion, in part because Pelfrey is, indeed, a better pitcher than Saunders.

Mets fans, however, were also probably deluded by Pelfrey’s flirtation with dominance earlier this year. The comparison is more legitimate than most people think. For one, I compiled their numbers and calculated their FIP over the last three years:

Pelfrey:

504.1 IP

262 SO

176 BB

37 HR’s

FIP: 4.16

Saunders:

504.2 IP

268 SO

162 BB

64 HR’s

FIP: 4.75

As you can see, their innings pitched, strikeouts, and walks, are all frighteningly similar. Even their ground ball rate is very close- Pelfrey’s usually around 50%, and Saunders is closer to 45%.

The glaring discrepancy, obviously, is the number of dingers allowed. Pelfrey’s HR/9 rate over the last three years is an excellent .66, while Saunders is a whooping 1.27. Of course, Pelfrey’s had the advantage of pitching in favorable parks such as Shea Stadium and Citi Field the majority of his career. His career HR/9 rate is .89 on the road and .55 at home. Maybe that is just a sample size mirage and he is due for some regression, but Pelfrey’s been around for some time now; he has made 56 starts and thrown 345.2 innings at home, and has 44 starts and 252.2 innings on the road.

It’s not like Saunders has been unlucky, though. His HR/FB rate is actually 10.3%, below the typical 11-12% average. Saunders is a less productive pitcher than Mike Pelfrey, because he allows more home runs, plain and simple.

If you are a fan of XFIP, which adjusts for HR/FB rate (assumes the pitcher is average), Pelfrey’s xFIP is 4.46, and Saunders’ is 4.8. One thing I will note is that Pelfrey’s kept his HR/FB rate down for his entire career, which I would expect is more a function of Shea Stadium and Citi Field than luck in itself.  This means Pelfrey can probably maintain his low HR/FB rate so long as he remains a Met, and his FIP is the best gauge of his future worth to the team. Further, if he did leave the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field, his ERA should not be expected to rise much more than his xFIP suggest.

Going by XFIP, Saunders is a high-end fifth starter, Pelfrey a solid, if unspectacular fourth. Going by FIP, Saunders is once again a top-notch fifth starter, but Pelfrey’s about an average number three starter.

Regardless of what stat you favor, Pelfrey’s only about a half run better of ERA better than Saunders, probably even less. I am not sure what that works out to in terms of WAR, but looking over similar examples, the difference is more or less just a half-win. That is only about $2-$2.5 million per year in monetary value.

For better or worse, Saunders (29) is three years older than Pelfrey (26). But Saunders’ perceived value is higher for several reasons. He is left-handed, and the switch to the National League should at least slightly improve his stats. Plus, Pelfrey’s in the midst of a so-called “dead-arm” phase, which does not help his trade value.

How do the Mets stack up in terms of matching prospects? Skaggs, in a nutshell, embodies all the risks and rewards of a promising 19 year-old pitcher in A-Ball; Corbin that of a 21 year-old in advanced-A ball, although it does not sound like he has much of a high ceiling. Rodriguez is a meaningless throw-in.

If this were 2009, Kyle Allen and Jeurys Familia would be an awesomely fitting comparison. That is not the case this year, but because Pelfrey is the centerpiece of our hypothetical trade we can slack on prospects. Kirk Nieuwenhuis and either Robert Carson or Familia would probably fit the bill.

None of it really seems to matter. Not because it’s all hypothetical, but I feel like I am picking at straws, so to speak. We are talking Dan Haren. He is 29, under contract at an affordable rate for three more years, and a flat-out stud. The D-Backs could have had Ike Davis or Fernando Martinez for all I care.

It’s easy to blame Omar Minaya and co. for not being aggressive - and probably ignorant of the fact Haren’s 4.6 ERA is the product of bad luck. By that, standard, however, we probably have to accuse at least a half-dozen other teams of the same offense. I just do not get it.

Further, the offense has sputtered and died like a 1974 Ford Pinto, getting shut out an incomprehensible 4 times in 10 days. That would be quite a feat if this were 1979, and the likes of Frank Taveras, Doug Flynn, and Bruce Boisclair were littering the lineup. But to be that anemic in the 21st century is … well, there are no words. Unfortunately for Howard Johnson, someone is going to have to be the scapegoat, and it’s unlikely to be the bullpen coach.

Whether it is HoJo or someone else, heads are guaranteed to roll in the next 24-48 hours. That’s an educated guess based on privately gathered inside information and the following public reports:

From tweets by Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger:

Omar: “When you have a trip like this, you have to sit down and assess how you’re going to get it right . . . We’re not going to sit back.”

Twice asked if staff would survive by Tuesday, Omar Minaya twice demurred from anything definitive.

From Andy Martino of the NY Daily News:

Minaya passed on two chances to say entire coaching staff would be intact Tuesday.

From Adam Rubin of ESPN-NY:

No one will say Howard Johnson’s job is safe

Omar would not directly state staff would remain intact Tuesday.

From David Lennon of NY Newsday:

Asked twice, Minaya would not say definitively that staff will remain intact on Tuesday when #Mets return to action.

It doesn’t take a genius to realize something is up, and that changes of some sort are coming soon — or sooner. Heck, even a two-bit blogger such as myself can figure that out.

What exactly will happen, no one is sure. HoJo’s job is unteneble right now, and though the pitching has been mostly strong lately, Dan Warthen could be blamed for Mike Pelfrey’s sudden slide. Dave Jauss could be in jeopardy for no other reason than the fact he’s Jerry Manuel’s pal (remember when Willie Randolph’s buddy Rick Down was fired?). Whether Manuel himself is spared the hatchet remains to be seen; Omar Minaya could have a tough time ‘splainin why he chose the wrong manager twice in five years. Indeed, one has to wonder if Minaya himself is on the chopping block.

We don’t know for sure what will occur in the next two days, but we can be sure that SOMETHING will happen.

Fasten your seatbelts …