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The story so far…

After the Mets’ last period of contention ended with an ugly season in 2017, the Mets organization entered a period of revolving-door leadership. In 2018, manager Mickey Callaway came in to turn things around. In 2019, GM Brodie Van Wagenen came in to turn things around. In 2020, manager Luis Rojas came in to turn things around. In 2021, Steve Cohen bought the team and brought in a new front office to turn things around. Some of these moves worked better than others, but none of them got the Mets to the postseason.

2021 was a particularly discouraging season, thanks to declines from all of the team’s core players, injuries that shelved the team’s biggest star (Jacob deGrom), and finally a late-season collapse.

Mets fans entered 2022 desperate to see if Steve Cohen’s money and a few key new faces could finally right the ship. Those new faces included manager Buck Showalter, hitting coach Eric Chavez, and a bevy of high-priced free agent players signed by new GM Billy Eppler.

The Mets also looked forward to an enormous opportunity in the mid-season amateur draft, with many early-round picks.

2022 developments

As the season began (a week late, after a labor dispute lockout that lasted into March), it was a strange feeling to root for a Mets team led by an Indian (Lindor), a National (Scherzer), a Pirate (Marte), and other players who had made their names for other organizations. However, enthusiasm quickly built, as the Mets’ hitters finally showed some discipline and clutch ability, grinding out quality at bats up and down the lineup, including some key RBI singles to win games. This was exactly what fans had been missing over the previous two seasons, when the Mets had hit well overall, but had routinely failed when it mattered most.

For much of the year, the Mets were clicking on all cylinders:

• Though fairly low in the power department by 2022 standards, the Mets were leading the National League in runs, while posting the league’s lowest strikeout rate, well into the summer.
• The bullpen was better than expected, with career years out of the team’s primary setup man and closer, and clutch performances throughout. Nearly everyone got opportunities in big spots, and they delivered more often than not — this allowed the Mets to avoid leaning too heavily on one or two guys, and their relievers posted the fewest back-to-back appearances in the game.
• The starting pitching was overall very healthy and consistent.
• Buck Showalter impressed on all fronts – his demeanor, preparation, and pitching moves all seemed top-notch. I was particularly happy to see him frequently deploy his best reliever in the 8th inning if the game was on the line or the opponents’ best hitters were up, instead of always waiting for the 9th.
• The team ended play on August 27 with an 82-46 record, on track to challenge the 1986 squad for the title of winningest Mets team ever.

Unfortunately, things went south in September. With the red-hot Braves chasing them down (from a full 10 games behind in June), the Mets stumbled against the lowly Nationals and Cubs in early September, and came into the season’s penultimate series against the Braves with only a one-game lead. The Mets just needed to win one game to nail down the season tiebreaker for the division (as opposed to the wild card, if the teams finished the season tied). Instead, they were swept by a Braves team that out-slugged them in every game, despite the Mets throwing their three best starting pitchers and taking early leads. The Braves went on to win the NL East by virtue of the tiebreaker.

The 2022 Mets wound up winning 101 games, the second most in franchise history, but the primary fan sentiment was anxiety as the team limped into the playoffs.

In the three-game Wild Card series against the Padres, the Mets again sent their best pitchers to the mound, but Max Scherzer lost command of his fastball and gave up seven runs to blow Game 1, while Chris Bassitt couldn’t get through four innings amid control issues in Game 3. The Mets were eliminated in that game, tallying only one hit as the offense completely collapsed.

The crowds at Citi Field were not what one would have hoped for late in the year. After 2021’s late fade, fans came into September 2022 hoping for proof that this year’s apparent juggernaut was different. When they didn’t get that proof, the mood soured quickly. Apparently we Mets fans have been demoralized too many times, and we will need more success, especially in the clutch, to revive our faith.

Stock Up, Stock Down

A 101-win 2022 season, a disappointing 2022 finish, and a record offseason spending spree – what does it all add up to for 2023? Should the Mets be more bullish on their team than they were at this time last year, or less?

Catcher

Omar Narváez – stock: up
James McCann hit so poorly in 2022 that Nido’s bunting ability alone often made Tomas the better offensive option. Replacing McCann this year is Narváez, who brings a similar track record to the one McCann brought to the Mets: consistently good defense, one standout year on offense, and not much else. McCann was probably my favorite game-caller since the Mike Piazza era ended, but I won’t miss his non-competitive at bats.

Tomas Nido – stock: down
After some heroics at the plate in 2021, Nido’s offense in 2022 was defined mostly by his ability to bunt. Tomas contributed just enough singles and successful sacrifice bunts to not be an albatross at the bottom of a loaded lineup, but a .239/.276/.324 line is not good. He returns in 2023 as the presumed backup catcher, though the split with Narvaez might wind up closer to 50/50. Nido’s above-average defense continues to be an asset.

Waiting in the wings is Francisco Alvarez, who made his big league debut late in 2022, with the Mets desperate for offense in a season-deciding series against the Braves. Unsurprisingly, Alvarez was anxious, showing poor pitch selection, over-swinging and making a number of key outs. He did show a very quick bat, though, as well as the ability to hit the ball a mile. Showalter said he’d be fine with Alvarez spending 2023 in AAA, but it would surprise no one if Francisco is back in the big leagues as soon as his defense is deemed ready.

First Base

Pete Alonso – stock: up
Pete set the Mets’ all time single season RBI record in 2022, with an impressive 131. He contributed lots of home runs with men on base, and a significant number of clutch opposite field singles as well. 2019 may have been Pete’s most impressive season, but in 2022 he showed the best consistency, versatility, and clutch ability we’ve seen from him so far.

Second Base

Jeff McNeil – stock: way up
In 2022, McNeil finally looked back to his 2018 self, using a quick stroke to spray line drives all over the field. In mid-July, his batting average sat at .315y. A 10-day slump brought him down below .290, but he then hit .378 over the season’s final 62 games to finish at .326, becoming the first Met to lead MLB in hitting. He struck out zero times in his final 50 plate appearances, a feat I wasn’t sure was possible in today’s game. Jeff was a tough out all season – it seemed like he fought off more tough pitchers’ pitches than the rest of the lineup combined.

Although he has lost some speed on the bases, his defense at second base has stayed above average, thanks to his quick reactions and willingness to dive for anything close. It’s good to know that we’ll have his hustle, contact hitting, and defensive versatility for years to come, now that he’s agreed to a contract extension.

Luis Guillorme – stock: up
Luis started the 2022 season on an offensive tear, but cooled down by mid-season. In the end, he still got on base enough to be a significant asset overall when combined with his excellent defense. Guillorme started at several positions, but primarily at second base when McNeil was manning a corner outfield spot. On those occasions, watching Luis execute double plays with his lightning-quick hands was an absolute treat.

Third Base

Eduardo Escobar – stock: down
For a long time, Escobar looked like the Mets’ biggest free agent bust in recent memory, taking a .216/.269/.384 line into mid-August. This prompted a Brett Baty call-up, but two weeks later, Baty broke his thumb sliding for a ground ball, and Escobar suddenly became a clutch hitting machine. In September, Eduardo hit .340/.393/.650 with 24 RBI in 26 games, winning NL Player of the Month.

It is hard to know whether 2023 Escobar will be the first half disaster of 2022 (waving at pitches out of the strike zone while playing inconsistent defense), the final month hero, or something in between. He now constitutes a bigger question mark than he did heading into 2022.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor – stock: up
Lindor may never fully earn the ridiculous contract Cohen gave him, but he did have a very good 2022, ranking second on the team in bWAR to McNeil. Compared to 2021, Lindor’s offense improved in every facet, especially the quality of his at bats in key moments. He showed just as much power but with much better pitch selection, and he never had the awful, prolonged slumps that plagued him in 2021 (though his K rate did continue to climb).

His defense, unfortunately, took a step backwards, as he blew several plays with late or awkward reactions and inaccurate throws. There were no obvious signs of physical decline, so perhaps this was merely a fluke; however, it may also be a result of playing every single day. Lindor missed one game all year, after breaking his finger in a door, which was followed by his worst slump of the season. Perhaps Showalter would be well advised to force the occasional day off on his proud stars (in addition to Lindor missing only 1 game, Alonso missed only 2).

Left Field

Mark Canha – stock: unchanged
It didn’t seem like the Mets were entirely sure what they wanted to do with Canha in 2022. His contract seemed commensurate with an everyday job, but his production with the A’s did not make that a slam dunk on an aspiring contender –- a slow corner outfielder whose bat is more good than great doesn’t seem like a championship caliber piece. At times during the season, it appeared that the Mets wanted to use Mark as much against lefties as they could, giving many of the LF/DH at bats to other players against righties. Unfortunately, Canha hit better against righties than lefties, forcing the team to abandon this strategy.

As the season progressed, Showalter showed a willingness to sit Canha to try to work in more dynamic offensive players, especially when the Mets’ offense was not at their best. I rarely agreed with this, as Canha, despite his flaws, sustained a high on base percentage throughout the year, hovering around .370 (he was hit by 28 pitches, easily a Mets single season record). Every juggernaut offense seems to get a few of those under-the-rader, high-OBP seasons — they are the fuel that makes the RBI guys go.

Tim Locastro – stock: unchanged
Down the stretch in 2022, the Mets brought up Terrance Gore from the minor leagues to pinch run and steal bases. Gore did that as well as possible, running early in the count, and being successful. This year, the Mets have acquired a player with more offensive and defensive versatility in Tim Locastro, but it would be reasonable to expect that Tim’s primary duty will be as a pinch runner. Locastro may be faster than Gore, but Tim has not demonstrated as conclusively that he can do the job Gore did so well last September. Is rostering Locastro all season a better move than promoting a pure specialist from the minors when needed? MLB no longer has a 40 man roster in September, but 28 is still enough to accommodate that sort of thing.

Center Field

Brandon Nimmo – stock: up
Nimmo did not have his most effective year at the plate, but he had by far his healthiest one. His walks declined as his chases increased, and he didn’t quite match his career slugging numbers, but he was still above average in both departments, and he played more games than ever before in his 7-year career.

Nimmo also had his best defensive season to date, with his overall consistency punctuated by a few memorable highlight catches, including a home run-robbing leap on a full sprint to back deGrom. Clearly Eppler believes that Nimmo can sustain his health in his thirties, as he gave Brandon an 8-year contract for over 20 million per season. Nimmo is now the most senior Met, and as a homegrown player who performs well and is good with the media, it could be argued that he is as much the face of the franchise as high-priced stars like Lindor and Scherzer.

Right Field

Starling Marte – stock: down
Marte came over to the Mets with declining defensive metrics, having fallen way off since his prime years. He also led the major leagues in stolen bases in 2021, while posting a career-high batting average. With the Mets in 2022, Marte showed a bit different skill set: he did not run a ton, but his arm and glove played very well in his new home in right field (good call by the Mets to move him from center).

Marte never has walked very much and presumably never will, but he hit as many line drives as anyone on the team, was among the Mets’ most clutch bats, and was the team’s best at squaring up an inside fastball. When Marte missed the end of the season, it left a noticeable hole in the Mets’ lineup, especially when facing elite velocity.

With the new pickoff rules and bigger bases in 2023, fans may be wondering if Marte can add the stolen base back to his repertoire. Perhaps more important is how well he can stay on the field, as he enters his age 34 season with a variety of leg and core issues. Also, much like Mark Canha, Marte is an HBP magnet, which constitutes an additional health risk.

Designated Hitter

The most disappointing aspect of the 2022 Mets lineup was definitely the DH spot. Both Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis had showed massive offensive upside in the past, but they both took big steps backward in 2022, giving the Mets essentially nothing.

Davis was eventually traded, in one of the most shockingly stupid, obviously bad deals in recent memory. Eppler swapped J.D. for an even more limited player in 35-year-old platoon DH Darin Ruf, and somehow threw in two young pitchers with significant upside (Nick Zwack and Carson Seymour) as well as Thomas Szapucki, who had just dramatically improved his strikeout rate in AAA. None of these players projected as cornerstones for the Mets, but they constitute a better package than the one the Braves gave the Angels for their closer, Raisel Iglesias. This was an embarrassing overpay by Eppler, who should clearly have said no when the Giants asked for more than J.D. alone. Since Eppler hasn’t yet done anything of note with the Mets other than use Cohen’s money to outbid the field in free agency, many fans are wondering if Billy will turn out to be an asset or a liability.

Unsurprisingly, J.D. Davis performed well in an everyday role for the Giants down the stretch and now looks set to be a regular in 2023, his age 29 season, while Darin Ruf (who cost the Mets plenty by hitting .152/.216/.197 until they benched him) is a hair away from being out of baseball.

Mets fans must also bid a fond farewell to the other half of the Cookie Club, Dominic Smith, who looked lost in 2022, constantly offering at pitches above and below the strike zone.

Daniel Vogelbach – stock: unchanged
Fortunately, the Mets’ deal for the long side of their new DH platoon was much more reasonable, sending Colin Holderman, a relief pitcher with 5 years of team control but an inconsistent history, to the Pirates for a few months of Daniel Vogelbach. Vogie has long been one of the least aggressive hitters in baseball, seeming content to wait for the exact pitch he wants, and not offer otherwise. He is a good high-ball hitter, and can hit some absolute rockets, but his home run numbers in 2022 were nothing special. His primary contribution to the Mets was drawing a lot of walks, but that’s a bit less valuable for one of the worst base-cloggers in MLB. Vogelbach is even slower than you would think for a guy his size — we’re talking Bartolo Colon level — and he often failed to advance successfully on plays where nearly anyone else would have. I imagine fans will have few complaints on that score if his power stroke returns.

Tommy Pham – stock: down
Tommy Pham has had an up and down career recently, and it is unclear why the Mets chose him as their righty DH/corner outfield option. Pham has been patient in some years and not in others; he has shown power in some years and not in others; and his defense hasn’t been average or better in quite a while. He may also have a problematic personality: he slapped Joc Pederson over fantasy football, missed time after being stabbed in a parking lot altercation, and has never shown even a hint of a smile in any interview I’ve seen. Best case scenario: Pham is exactly the type of tough, no nonsense, intense personality that the Mets have often needed in the past.

Starting Pitcher

Justin Verlander – stock: unchanged
Arguably the most accomplished pitcher in baseball comes over to the Mets after winning a Cy Young Award with a historic 1.75 ERA in 2022. Verlander’s results last season were jaw-dropping, but it’s worth wondering whether chopping two thirds off his home run rate may have been a fluke. Aside from limiting homers at an unprecedented rate, all of Verlander’s stats were down from his pre-Tommy John days, including huge drops in fastball velocity and strikeout rate. At age 40, expecting more 2022-quality results out of Verlander does not seem realistic. That said, he can decline plenty from that pinnacle and still qualify as an ace. Mets fans should be looking forward to watching one of the best pitchers of this generation.

Alas, one of Verlander’s primary assets throughout his career has been health and durability, and he starts 2023 on the injured list with a minor strain of an armpit muscle. The Mets have to be crossing their fingers really hard in hopes that this is a one-time blip for this aging star.

Verlander has some big shoes to fill in 2023, as he replaces the Mets’ most beloved player since David Wright retired: Jacob deGrom is gone, signing a 5-year, $185 million dollar deal with the Rangers. To say that Mets fans will miss Jake is a massive understatement. At his best, deGrom was as good as any starting pitcher has ever been, and he was one of the most quietly intense competitors you’ll ever see on a baseball diamond. His final year with the Mets was a frustrating one: he returned from 2021 elbow troubles to look great in spring 2022, but then cracked his scapula prior to opening day. When he eventually returned in August, he was completely unhittable in short outings, rarely giving up a run before the 6th inning. His performance did go downhill as the year continued, however, and he never got to the point of looking strong after 80 or 90 pitches. For Jake’s sake, I hope his arm holds up, but no matter how much I wanted the Mets to bring him back, I cannot blame Eppler for not topping the Rangers’ offer. At least deGrom’s final Mets start was a victory in the playoffs.

Max Scherzer – stock: unchanged
Wow is Max Scherzer a joy to watch! Of all the Mets’ recent additions of established stars, Scherzer did the most to make us see him as a Met quickly, with his ferocious dedication to winning every time he took the mound (and his clear passion for baseball every other day to boot). Scherzer now relies more on his secondary pitches than his fastball, but his unusual motion seems to be throwing hitters off as much as ever, and his command of his breaking balls has never looked better. As long as Max can avoid throwing hangers, which tend to get hit for home runs, he has lost zero effectiveness from his prime. His durability has definitely declined from his 220-inning days, but his 2.29 ERA in 2022 was a career best!

The most concerning parts of Scherzer’s 2022 were a lingering oblique injury in May, and suddenly losing his fastball movement in the playoffs. I expect he’ll be just as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, but at age 38 that can’t be seen as anything close to a sure thing.

Kodai Senga – stock: down
Chris Bassitt had some extreme inconsistency in his time with the Mets, but his overall numbers were quite good, and he played a huge role in contributing to a rotation that gave the Mets quality starting pitching day in and day out. Replacing him is a high-upside question mark from Japan, who scouts are conflicted on. Apparently Senga’s forkball is a pretty unhittable pitch, but his other stuff is reported to be mediocre, and scouts say his high-velocity fastball plays down due to poor command. I would have loved to acquire Senga as a multi-inning, high leverage reliever, but the Mets gave him a 5-year contract to be a starter. It will be fun watching him strike out opponents with his “Ghost Fork”, but the odds have to be against him contributing more overall than a proven commodity like Bassitt (who signed with the Blue Jays for 3 years and $63m).

Carlos Carrasco – stock: unchanged
After an utterly awful 2021 and an offseason elbow “clean-up”, Carrasco returned to form to begin 2022, throwing sliders, curveballs, and a new split change up with accuracy to both sides of the plate. His fastball remained one of the least effective fastballs in baseball, but he didn’t overuse it. He tied Bassitt for the team lead with 15 wins, had several highly efficient outings where he pitched deep into the game while shutting down the opponent, and spent most of the season as an anchor in the Mets’ rotation.

Unfortunately, Carlos fell apart so badly down the stretch that he was not even in consideration for a start when the Mets got to the playoffs, and he was not a lock to even be on the roster. This year, reports have surfaced of a recurrence of the elbow issues that derailed his 2021. If his 2021 performance is what we can expect from Carrasco with bone chips in his elbow, then he should get those chips removed now and hope to return before season’s end, because the 2021 Carrasco was well below replacement level. All eyes will be on whether he can finish his slider and curveball, and throw them often enough to stay away from his hittable fastball. Perhaps Carrasco could benefit from a change to his fastball grip to get more movement, but I have heard no reports of him attempting that.

David Peterson – stock: up (personally); down (compared to Walker)
A spring training injury to José Quintana opened a rotation spot for Peterson, who won it thanks to a near-flawless spring. Hopefully his dominant March is a continuation of the maturation David showed in 2022. His walk rate was still high, but he was much less prone to blow-up innings, and to mistakes in general, than in his poor 2021. His slider across the knees to righties, a la Clayton Kershaw, is a legitimate big league weapon if he can maintain consistency with its break and location. In 2022, some days were better than others in that regard.

I loved the José Quintana signing, as he was absolutely brilliant during the stretch drive with the Cardinals in 2022, and has generally had a very good career. Disappointingly, an out-of-nowhere rib injury in spring training has put his 2023 in doubt.

Gone to the rival Phillies is Taijuan Walker, yet another member of the 2022 rotation who was, though not spectacular, extremely valuable for his overall reliability.

Tylor Megill – stock: down
Peterson beat out Megill to take Quintana’s roster spot, but with Verlander coming up lame on the eve of the season, Tylor now makes the roster as well. Megill blew us away with his surprise debut in 2021, before injuries and fatigue eventually derailed him. In the beginning of 2022, he looked more dominant than ever, but once again physical issues cut short his apparent trajectory to stardom. After 6 strong outings to begin the year, Megill made only 3 more starts in 2022, allowing a combined 17 hits and 14 runs over 8 innings. He came back in mid-September to try to help the team as a reliever, but he looked nothing like his old self, and that has continued in spring training this year. Perhaps he will find it easier to stay healthy throwing at 93 mph as opposed to 99, but it’s not clear if he will be able to succeed with reduced stuff.

Joey Lucchesi – stock: down
Joey should complete his rehab from Tommy John surgery sometime this year, but until he proves himself, he has to be seen as a step down from versatile swingman Trevor Williams, who excelled for the Mets in both the rotation and bullpen. Hopefully Lucchesi hasn’t lost the feel for his signature churve!

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz – stock: up (performance) and then down (injury)
Through the end of May, Edwin Diaz looked like a serviceable closer who would impress with his stuff and strikeouts, but overall produce merely good, not great, results. Then, beginning in June, he went on one of the most ridiculous rolls in recent memory, going 21-0 in save chances while adding in four holds and one win, holding opponents to a ridiculous .130/.187/.152 line with 0 HRs over his final 40 appearances.

He did it by throwing his slider 58% of the time, a pitch FanGraphs ranked #2 among relievers (and #10 among all pitchers!) in total Runs prevented. His final 2022 numbers: 32-3 in Saves, .160/.230/.216 allowed, 17.1 K/9. That strikeout rate is the second highest ever for a pitcher with over 50 innings, and the highest ever for a pitcher with over 60.

Eppler seemed to think this would continue: after the season, he handed Diaz a record contract (in both years and dollars for a reliever) to return. Unfortunately, Diaz then tore his patellar tendon celebrating a win for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic and is now expected to miss the 2023 season.

David Robertson – stock: way down (compared to Diaz)
Robertson comes to the Mets with an impressive resume, but with his best years apparently well behind him. He still has a good curveball and a useful cutter, but his reliance on the curve means the occasional hanger gets crushed. Robertson is one of the more reliable bets in MLB to be at least okay, but asking him to be the team’s primary closer may be unrealistic.

Adam Ottavino – stock: up
2022 was perhaps Ottavino’s best year (at age 36!), with his running fastball nicely complementing his sweeping slider to torment both lefties and righties (though still especially righties!). It will be key for Adam to continue limiting base runners, as a walk is basically a double, due to his methodical delivery and complete inability to hold runners.

Ottavino reprises the role he eventually filled in 2022, serving as the team’s primary setup man and righty specialist. It may be unrealistic to expect a repeat of 2022, but the Mets have reason to be higher on Adam than they were when they first signed him.

Brooks Raley – stock: up
In 2022 the Mets acquired Joely Rodriguez in what looked to be a bit of a desperation move to add literally any lefty to their bullpen. In 2023, the Mets instead bring in Raley, a lefty with a recent history of success.

Drew Smith – stock: unchanged
Smith had his best big league season yet at age 28, pitching a career high 46 innings with a K rate over 10 and a walk rate under 3. At the same time, he allowed nearly 2 home runs per 9 innings and posted a FIP well worse than league average, leaving him better suited as bullpen depth than as a high-leverage guy.

Bullpen depth – stock: down
Gone is Seth Lugo, who had been with the Mets longer than anyone but deGrom and Nimmo. The Padres offered him the starting pitcher job he’d always wanted, and he took it. Lugo was no longer elite in 2022, but he was still an above-average pitcher with a reliable track record. Fans can fondly recall his clutch performances down the stretch in 2016, his dominance late in 2019, and his success in helping lead Puerto Rico to the 2017 WBC finals.

Also gone is Trevor May, who entered 2022 with a strong recent track record but ultimately contributed nothing due to injuries and ineffectiveness.

The Mets instead start 2023 with a bullpen that includes injury-prone veteran Tommy Hunter, spring training star John Curtiss, and two out-of-options guys in rookie Stephen Nogosek and retread Dennis Santana. This does not look promising. If not for injuries to Bryce Montes de Oca (Tommy John surgery), Stephen Ridings, and Sam Coonrod, it might look better… or it might not.

Minor league back-ups include oft-injured Jimmy Yacabonis, trade acquisition Jeff Brigham (for Jake Mangum), free agent Denyi Reyes, and organizational arms Josh Walker, Zach Muckenhirn, and Grant Hartwig.

Minor leaguers of note

2022 was a very successful year for the Mets’ top minor league hitters. Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez both earned big league cups of coffee with strong performances in the upper minors, and Brett Baty might have locked down the big league third base job if not for an injury that ended his season in late August. Ronny Mauricio did not have a good 2022 minor league season, but he won the Dominican League MVP in the winter and impressed everyone this spring.

Baty projects as a well-rounded hitter and slightly below average defender at third base, while Vientos and Alvarez both project as mashers if they can make enough contact. Also key is whether Alvarez’s defense improves enough that he won’t hurt the team at catcher, and whether Vientos can handle any position other than first base.

Beyond these big four, the Mets’ minors were apparently barren before the draft brought in Kevin Parada, Jett Williams, and Blade Tidwell. Scouts seemed to like these picks, though the Mets’ chance for a truly epic haul hit a snag when no one signed Michael Conforto (who had declined the Mets’ qualifying offer).

If the major league team needs a spot start or two, low-upside control pitcher José Butto seems the most ready. Sadly, once-touted prospect Matthew Allan has suffered another elbow injury and seems unlikely to make it at this point.

Summing it up

Changes since a year ago

Stock way down: closer (Robertson vs. Diaz)

Stock down: Marte, Escobar, Nido, Pham (vs. J.D. Davis), much of the starting pitching rotation and depth (departure of Bassitt/Walker/Williams, decline of Megill), bullpen depth

Stock unchanged: Canha, Guillorme, Vogelbach (vs. Smith), Carrasco, Scherzer, Verlander (vs. deGrom)

Stock up: Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, Ottavino, Raley (over Joely R.) and Narvaez (over McCann), as well as the organization’s top minor league bats

Stock way up: MLB batting champion Jeff McNeil

Multi-Year Trends

It’s been up-and-down for the Mets at most positions. Many hitters were good in 2020 and 2022, and bad or hurt in 2021 (Lindor and Nimmo, for example). The steadiest bat from season to season has been Pete Alonso, and the most erratic has been Jeff McNeil.

The only Mets player on a consistent upward trajectory across multiple seasons has been top prospect Francisco Alvarez.

What it all means

Are the Mets facing some sort of identity crisis heading into 2023? Long looking up at their reviled big brother Yankees, who simply spent their way to victory via high-priced free agents, the Mets are now going the same route. The team’s 2023 payroll is the highest in MLB history, and after you factor in the luxury tax, it’s not even close. All this despite the failed Carlos Correa contract (Cohen agreed to give him $250m before Correa failed a physical).

Reporters asked Brandon Nimmo about this dynamic after he signed his enormous new contract, and Brandon replied that he was ready to embrace a front-runner role and the opposing fans’ hate that comes with it. These are not the Mets that I’m familiar with!

Steve Cohen says he is aiming for a Dodgers model, using free agent spending to bridge the gap while the minors build a sustainable talent pipeline. He has earned the ire of other owners by spending whatever it takes to build the best team he can for the next few years while the minors get up to speed.

The major league team is very old with no young pitching ready to help, so staving off injury will be key. The offense lacks power, struggles against good pitching, and looked tired down the stretch last year. Was 2022 some players’ last gasp, or not? It’s also worth wondering why Eric Chavez, the hitting coach through 2022’s epic offensive turnaround from a woeful 2021, is now the team’s bench coach. Chavez came into 2022 intent on simplifying things for Mets hitters after the over-thinking epidemic of 2021, and indeed, the 2022 team looked much more confident at the plate. 2022 assistant hitting coach Jeremy Barnes, who lacks Chavez’s MLB pedigree, will take the reins in 2023.

A team that won 101 games last year and returns a fairly similar squad for 2023 has got to have fans optimistic about another playoff appearance, especially with three NL Wild Cards available. At this point, however, it really seems like the Mets will need to win some big games to make fans happy. Another early exit in the playoffs would be a tough pill to swallow. To that end, winning the division would be huge, but unfortunately the Braves added two more cheap superstars in 2022 (Michael Harris & Spencer Strider came out of nowhere to finish 1-2 in the Rokie of the Year vote), and look poised to dominate the NL East for five years or more.

Speaking of the future, the Mets brought in a new player development team after the 2022 season, headlined by Jeff Albert (hitting director) and Eric Jagers (pitching director). Jagers is a particularly interesting hire — he’s a 28-year-old former performance coach at Driveline, an academy that specializes in cutting-edge training techniques. Hopefully he can change things up a bit, as the Mets organization hasn’t developed any difference-making arms since Noah Syndergaard came up in 2015. The Mets’ minor leagues also need an overhaul when it comes to producing depth: their last 10 drafts have produced the fewest big-leaguers in the game. (That said, those same draftees are near the top in total WAR, thanks largely to Conforto, Nimmo, McNeil and Alonso.)

Was 2022 the start of a long run of Mets dominance, or was it merely the high point for an old team in a tough division? I would say that 2023 is a pivotal year for the franchise… but that doesn’t seem very meaningful, since that’s been every year lately. Let’s just say that if there ever was a good time to top a 101-win season, this is it.

The Mets went 45-24 (a 106-win pace) with an offense that was arguably the best in MLB:
.262 batting average, .289 with runners in scoring position. .739 OPS, 5.1 runs per game.

Unfortunately the last 12 games have not been so kind. The offense has suddenly disappeared, especially in the clutch. As skids go, 5-7 really isn’t bad, but since the Braves have gone 25-7 over the last 5 weeks, the Mets’ division lead is nearly gone. Plus, this really doesn’t look good for the Mets:
.217 batting average, .146 with runners in scoring position. .628 OPS, 3.0 runs per game.

Let’s take a look at who’s done what to get us to this point.

Position Players

Pete Alonso – A
Pete’s strike zone judgment and pitch selection is the best it’s ever been, and he’s become more versatile as a hitter, taking the opposite-field single when the opponent is giving it to him. He’s not lining HRs on pitches away like in 2019, but he’s demolishing mistakes with enough regularity to challenge for the HR crown. His defensive effort remains top notch, though some poor decisions and awkward moments have cost the Mets some outs.

Starling Marte – A-
At age 33, Marte still looks like himself. Not many walks, but more than enough line drives to make up for it, and his glove plays very well in RF (as does his arm).

Jeff McNeil – A-
McNeil is largely back tot he player he was in 2018, hitting over .300, generally being a tough out with few Ks, and delivering plenty of singles in the clutch. The main strikes against McNeil are a few slumps, a hamstring injury, and a decrease in speed which has reduced his value in the field and on the bases, where he’s now more average than above-average.

Brandon Nimmo – B
Nimmo has parlayed a more aggressive approach into some big hits, but his walk rate is barely 2/3 of his career norm. Overall his bat has still been a plus, and his CF defense is the most consistent it’s ever been.

Francisco Lindor – B-
Forgetting Lindor’s contract, he’s been a significant asset, as an above-average hitter who plays shortstop. He’s also been an excellent clutch hitter for most of the year (except when mired in a slump). The main downsides have been an increased K rate (higher than last year’s previous career high) and a lot of mistakes in the field (where he currently rates as well below average at the shortstop position).

Luis Guillorme – B-
Luis would have warranted an A a month ago, but his bat has cooled in July. Before that, the patient, high-contact approach that got him through the minors was finally working in MLB, with an OBP near .450 in June. Now that that’s down to .360, his complete lack of power is more glaring, but he continues to wow at 2B (and occasionally 3B or SS) with his glove.

Mark Canha – B-
Long ABs and an excellent OBP (until a recent slump) has made Canha an important part of the lineup. Unfortunately he’s shown minimal pop and is limited in the OF by his subpar speed and arm.

Eduardo Escobar – C-
A hot last week has validated him keeping his job, at least for now. He’s been roughly replacement level, with an OBP below .300 and plenty of errors in the field. Bonus points for having a great attitude and being beloved by his teammates.

Tomas Nido – C-
A few clutch hits prevent this from being worse. Even for a defense-first catcher, a sub-.500 OPS is a problem.

James McCann – D
Mostly injured, but has been an automatic out when he plays (.181 avg). At least he continues to call a good game.

J.D. Davis – D
A DH who strikes out in a third of his ABs and hits only 2 HRs is problem, no matter how elite his exit velocities (at one point #1 in baseball).

Dominic Smith – F
Same as Davis but with 0 HRs and without the special exit velo. Good defense at 1B isn’t enough. I suspect his shoulder is still an issue and he won’t be a major league hitter until it heals. A sub-.600 OPS just isn’t him.

Starting Pitchers

Max Scherzer – A
I guess we could ding Max for throwing too many pitches with a tight side instead of coming out before pulling an oblique? Not sure we hold anyone else to that standard, so I’ll just grade him on his pitching, which was at the Hall of Fame level we expect. He’s not throwing his fastball by people as often as in the past, but his pitch sequences are better than ever, and his secondary stuff has lost none of its sharpness.

Taijuan Walker – B
Just like last year, Walker has had a minuscule HR rate to start the season. It’s not clear why he’s getting so many grounders or why so few of his flies are leaving the yard; unfortunately I suspect it’s not sustainable, and his tiny K rate will prove to be a problem. So far so good, though (2.86 ERA)! His spiffy new splitter appears to be a solid out pitch.

David Peterson – B
Peterson’s fastball has been unreliable, but he’s shown improved consistency with a slider that he uses the way Kershaw does, sweeping it across the knees to finish down and in on righties, who can’t lay off it. He’s also thrown a few key change-ups on the outside corner. He’s outperformed his BB and HR rates, so far avoiding the game-breaking HRs that plagued him last year. As an injury fill-in he’s been a godsend, but he looks miscast as more than a #5.

Chris Bassitt – C
A good number of Ks and BBs; a 6-5 record and league average ERA; tons of HRs. It’s been a weird mixed bag for Bassitt, whose stuff has often looked fantastic, but his location has generally been poor, and his command has left him at key times. When he falls behind in counts, he doesn’t seem to have a great Plan B, often coming in with hittable fastballs. His explanation for a series of poor starts was failing to get on the same page with his catchers, but he needs to improve some other things too.

Carlos Carrasco – C
On his good days, Carrasco has parlayed pinpoint command of a sharp slider and splitter into lots of quick outs. On his bad days, those pitches aren’t quite on the corners, leading to some walks and too much use of his fastball, which has been one of the most hittable in MLB. His ugly ERA reflects some blow-up starts where he torpedoed the team early; in his other starts, he’s been quite good. Unfortunately, the trend is going in the wrong direction. As he looks more and more like his pre-elbow cleanup self from last year, the team may need to rest him for a bit or come up with another plan.

Tylor Megill – C
Megill was utterly dominant, then hurt his arm, then was working his way back, then hurt his arm in a different way. Most of the damage done against him was as the injuries were forming. Hopefully he can get better at noticing when something’s wrong and speaking up before it’s too late. When he’s on, he looks like a potential ace. The size, the stuff, and the fragility are making me (optimistically) think of Josh Johnson.

Relief Pitchers

Edwin Diaz – B
Diaz continues to strike out an absolutely ridiculous number of batters, but he also continues to make enough big mistake pitches to be far from a sure thing. 18-3 in save chances may not be stellar, but it’s good enough, and watching him completely blow hitters away on his good days is a lot of fun.

Seth Lugo – C
Lugo has given up a lot of big hits due largely to poor fastball command. If he can begin hitting the glove and become more reliable, it’d be a huge lift for the Mets bullpen; but at this point we’ve been waiting a few seasons for that, so it may be time to accept him as a merely average reliever.

Drew Smith – C
Smith has looked like a revelation on some days, but he’s allowed a ton of walks and homers, as well as a few game-changing rallies. It’s nice to see him throwing hard and posting a solid number of Ks, but he’s far from a sure thing just yet.

Adam Ottavino & Joely Rodriguez – C
The Mets’ specialists have been erratic, being very effective against same-handed batters on the days when they are locating, and useless otherwise.

Manager

Buck Showalter – A
I love how he occasionally uses his closer against the other team’s best guys even if that isn’t in the 9th inning. I love how the Mets have started rallies by doing little things he’s brought up (sliding between bases to slow down tag plays, advancing on appeal play, etc.). The team has hustled. I’m not thinking of any awful decisions that arguably cost the Mets games, which is pretty astonishing.

Links to previous editions: 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021

The story so far…

In 2021, as in many recent seasons, the Mets began with plenty of causes for optimism. Unfortunately, the organization suffered its biggest setback since the so-called Five Aces rotation fell apart in 2016 and 2017.

Optimism had been building since 2019 with the emergence of a core of homegrown studs, something every dynasty seems to start with, and something virtually every perennial playoff contender features. In 2021, the Mets’ new additions seemed primed to take the home-grown core of Conforto, McNeil, Smith, Alonso and Davis to the next level.

Instead, almost to a man, that homegrown core utterly collapsed.

Why was the optimism so high? Well, for starters, the previous year’s lineup could rake. They just couldn’t do it in the clutch. The 2020 team OPS+ stat was historically great, but the Mets couldn’t drive in runs, especially not with the game on the line. Heading into 2021, some hoped that random statistical regression and/or a mental reset would turn all those line drives into elite run production.

2021 developments

Unfortunately, the 2021 Mets came out of the gate with more of the same. As the team’s core hitters wallowed in unproductive funk, urgency built for some sort of change. On May 4, popular hitting coach Chili Davis was fired and replaced by minor league coach Hugh Quattlebaum. From there the offense only looked more and more hopeless, as it seemed that no one in the lineup could hit a fastball or a hanging breaking ball. Long after the season ended, reports surfaced of hitters suffering analysis paralysis from information overload.

For the first several months of 2021, however, offensive futility did not seem to be the story of the Mets’ season. The Mets’ backups and role players came through with just enough clutch hits to support the team’s elite pitching and defense in surging to the top of the National League East. With all of their rivals sputtering to start the season, the Mets took over first place in early May and held on to the top spot through early August. Mets pitching began the year with an epic feat of homerun suppression, especially at home. While home run rates were slightly down across the sport, the Mets seemingly weren’t giving up any long balls, and their new commitment to shifts and probability-based defensive positioning turned lots of hard-hit balls into outs.

For a team to be in first place at the All-Star break, while expecting several returns to form from injury and underperformance, seems like an enviable position. That is how most fans and pundits viewed the Mets: get a few guys going, get a few guys healthy, and the lead they’ve built will hold up, if not increase.

Instead the offense did not improve, and the starting rotation completely fell off a cliff. DeGrom got hurt, and everyone else started serving up the home runs they had denied in the first half. The bench players were still fine, and the bullpen was still fine, but with a floundering lineup and rotation, the Mets were doomed. Their final 60 games were ugly as the Braves left them in the dust, all amidst embarrassing player antics and a few bad moves from manager Luis Rojas.

After the season ended, owner Steve Cohen set out to hedge his bets and build a roster that wouldn’t repeat 2021’s dismal disappointments. It wasn’t a smooth process, as the Mets lost out on a few key pieces while searching for a general manager and/or president of baseball operations. (GM Zack Scott was let go after several months of waiting to see how his DWI case would resolve.)

Once GM Billy Eppler was on board, Cohen attempted to fix the roster by opening his checkbook, with Eppler signing many free agents to large, short-term deals. Buck Showalter, regarded by many as a great manager but unemployed since 2018, was brought on to manage.

Stock Up, Stock Down

A promising 2021 start, a disastrous 2021 finish, and a frenzied offseason overhaul – what does it all add up to for 2022? Are the Mets in a better position than they were entering 2021, or should we Mets fans be steeling ourselves for a sixth straight year of disappointment?

FanGraphs’ preseason projections are very similar to last year’s, with the Mets around 93 wins. Oddsmakers are less sanguine, showing 87-90 wins.

Catcher

James McCann – stock: down
After an offensive surge for the White Sox, McCann returned to hitting like a backup catcher for the Mets in 2021. He had no chance against pitches low and away, and his pop largely disappeared as well. At least he played excellent defense, including much better game calling than the Mets’ recent primary catchers.

Tomas Nido – stock: unchanged
Tomas Nido led the team in Win Probability Added at the All Star break, as his clutch hitting early on led the Mets to some low-scoring victories. After that blaze of glory, Nido regressed to his usual mediocre hitting. His defense remains a positive.

First Base

Pete Alonso – stock: unchanged
After a spring training straight out of 2019, Pete showed up for 2021 with the same pull-happy swing he used in 2020. On the positive side, his pitch selection was better overall, and continued to improve as the season went on. He continued to add to his track record of durability, and his counting stats looked pretty good. Even if Pete can’t replicate his 2019 feat of spraying line drives into the seats, the Mets seem to have one of the more reliable home run bats in today’s game.

Second Base

Jeff McNeil – stock: way down
McNeil did tinker with lowering his crouch and closing his stance a bit to approach the style that had worked for him in the past, but he was never able to replicate the level swing that made him such a tough out from 2018 to 2019. For whatever reason, McNeil rarely made good contact at the plate, leaving him a huge drain on the lineup. His constant yelling after making outs seemed to annoy some teammates, and he eventually toned it down, but I miss the days of him sprinting through the bag with his hair on fire. Leg injuries have slowed him a bit, and it is unclear what his defensive value is now. There is also some speculation that a dust-up with Francisco Lindor was prompted by McNeil ignoring defensive shifting plans.

Late in the season, Javier Baez came over from the Cubs as a rental (for first-rounder Pete Crow Armstrong) and got hot as the Mets were falling out of the race. He did more than most to excite fans down the stretch, but first he gave the year’s most ill-advised interview, proclaiming that the “thumbs-down” gesture he’d made prominent on the team was a “see how you like it” statement directed at the fans over their booing.

Third Base

Eduardo Escobar – stock: up
Escobar is not a star, but he is a proven performer on both sides of the ball, which is a lot more than could be said for J.D. Davis entering 2021. Davis was backed up by Jonathan Villar, who wound up having a pretty solid season, so Escobar will need to top that in order to provide the Mets with improved Third Base production.

Luis Guillorme is the likely back-up, though his great hands and quick actions are more valuable at second or short. His minor league success with the bat, based on plenty of walks and few strikeouts, seemed to finally translate to the Majors in 2021 at age 26.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor – stock: way down
Like many successful athletes coming to New York, Lindor’s intelligent media presence early on eventually devolved into defensiveness as the pressure got to him. Not only did he apparently grab McNeil by the throat during a game, but he also came up with a ridiculous lie about it afterwards (“We saw a raccoon!”), making a farce out of what could have been a “passionate about baseball” moment. Far worse, though, was when Lindor jumped on the “thumbs down” gesture that Javy Baez used to boo the fans in August. Once this gesture was noticed, Sandy Alderson expressed his disgust, and the main culprits quickly went to the media to apologize.

For a player who eagerly assumed the reins of leadership shortly after he arrived, this sort of behavior may have been a factor in the team’s failure to live up to expectations. After the season, many reports cited a lack of leadership as a problem for the 2021 Mets. Although that may primarily reflect manager Luis Rojas’s disinclination to push players harder or govern with a sterner hand, it also cannot reflect well on Lindor.

On the field, Lindor underwhelmed in all aspects, showing an inability to square up the ball left-handed, a weak arm, and inconsistent hustle. His season stats were saved by a hot last 3 weeks after the Mets were essentially out of the race.

To see Trevor Story and Javy Baez each sign deals for $200m less than Lindor’s in the offseason rubs a little salt in the wound.

At the end of the day, however, Lindor is a shortstop with good range, solid contact rates and extra base power, which makes him a valuable player even if he’s not the MVP candidate the Mets envisioned.

Left Field

Mark Canha – stock: unchanged
Free agent Mark Canha replaces Dom Smith as the presumed left fielder. No one is predicting Canha to put up the big offensive numbers expected of Smith after his spectacular 2020. On the plus side, Canha is an actual outfielder, rather than a first baseman shoehorned into left field, and there was never any certainty that Dom would slug .600 again.

Center Field

Brandon Nimmo – stock: down
Nimmo continued to be one of baseball’s best OBP guys, but he also missed another 70 games due to injury, firmly establishing him as brittle. The Mets should expect to rely on their outfield depth this year, which is solid, but the team will definitely miss Brandon when he’s not on the field.

With deeper positioning, Nimmo’s defensive numbers improved dramatically in 2021; as long as he doesn’t have to go back on the ball, his speed helps him chase down his fair share of flies. The Mets may have been lucky that his weak arm wasn’t challenged often.

Right Field

Starling Marte – stock: unchanged
It’s hard to compare Marte this year, coming off a .310 average and 47 steals, to Conforto last year, coming off a .927 OPS. The Mets lose power and patience, while gaining speed and average. A fantastic defender in his twenties, Marte’s metrics have been unimpressive in center field for several years now, but he still may be well above average when used in right.

One of the longest-tenured Mets, Michael Conforto went out with a whimper, showing no pop and minimal bat speed in 2021. He’s currently looking for his next team. The Mets are hoping for a high draft pick from whomever signs him, but his market has been slowed by an offseason injury.

Designated Hitter

Dominic Smith – stock: way down
Dom looked terrible at the plate for almost all of 2021, to the point where many fans wanted him benched in favor of back-ups. Just recently, it was revealed that he messed up his shoulder after altering his swing follow-through due to a hand injury, which is a much more promising explanation than suddenly losing every hitting skill he had. Hopefully, with an improved shoulder and swing, Dom will be confident enough to be more selective, instead of constantly offering at pitches above and below the strike zone.

J.D. Davis – stock: down
Davis showed early on that he could still hit, but a hand injury kept him out for much of the season, and he showed no power upon his return to the lineup. It remains to be seen whether he will get significant at bats for the Mets in 2022. His spectacular 2019 is looking more and more like a distant memory.

Robinson Cano returns from a PED suspension at age 39. Instead of cutting him, the Mets seem intent on mixing him in with their younger DH options who are very much in need of ABs.

Starting Pitcher

Jacob deGrom – stock: way down
In his first 12 starts, deGrom allowed 4 earned runs and drove in six. With Jake providing his own offense, the Mets won the last 7 of those starts. After June 21, this was deGrom’s stat line:

• 72 IP, 27 H, 3 HR, 4 ER, 10 BB, 117 K
• 0.51 WHIP, 0.88 FIP, 0.50 ERA
• 3.38 H/9, 0.38 HR/9, 1.25 BB/9, 14.63 K/9, 11.7 K/BB
• .113/.148/.205 opponent slash line
• 2.94 Win Probability Added
• 2 SB / 1 CS
• Did not allow a baserunner in the first inning after his initial start.
• Went 11 for 27 as a batter, hitting .407 with 1 double, 4 runs and 6 RBI.

In terms of everything except durability, this was the most dominant 12-start stretch since the deadball era.

Oh, that durability, though…

• DeGrom missed his May 4 start with inflammation in his lat.
• He missed 2 starts in mid-May after straining his shoulder on a swing.
• He came out of his 11th start after 3 innings due to an injury from another swing (pulling a 98-mph fastball for an RBI).
• In his 12th start he was limited to 70 pitches as he worked on rebuilding his pitch count.

DeGrom would make only 3 more starts before he was shut down – initially for a few weeks (with a sore elbow), and then for the rest of the season (when he sprained his UCL trying to ramp back up). Now his attempt to gear up for the 2022 season has cracked his scapula.

It may be that starting pitchers simply can’t throw 100 mph over and over unless they’re Nolan Ryan or Randy Johnson.

In case we never see it again, here’s how deGrom went about it in 2021: almost all fastballs and sliders to the glove side, but with absolute pinpoint location on that edge of the plate, from top to bottom. The fastball sat 99 with rise. The slider had a sharp bite, and deGrom varied the speed and size of the break on it. If any righty looked decent against the fastball away, Jake would lean on the slider. If any lefty survived the fastball and slider in, Jake would mix it up with a fastball and change-up away (these were not as precise, but often more than sufficient after all the hard stuff in).

Of note: deGrom had no elbow complaints until the league cracked down on sticky substances heading into the hotter months. Everyone on the team (especially his catchers) made a point of saying that deGrom never used the sticky stuff, but one can’t help but wonder if his fingers could have used a little help in the July heat to avoid what felled Tyler Glasnow (squeezing the ball to keep it from slipping is what did in Glasnow’s UCL).

Max Scherzer – stock: way up
Marcus Stroman had a fantastic year for the Mets in 2021, and he’s being replaced by a 37-year-old. However, that 37-year-old is a surefire Hall of Famer who just missed adding a 4th Cy Young to his trophy case last year. Max Scherzer brings an arsenal of nasty pitches, a championship pedigree, fierce intensity on the mound, and a unique motion that has been keeping hitters from squaring up his fastball for over a decade. The Diamondbacks thought his odd finish, snapping his upper body forward and keeping his arm straight through his follow-through, would lead to injury, but Scherzer has been almost as durable over the years as he has been dominant.

As for Stroman, the Mets made no attempt to re-sign him, and Marcus signed a 3-year deal with the Cubs. Stroman clashed with the NY media at times and wasn’t afraid to have opinions on Twitter, leading some to suggest he was a clubhouse problem, but I never heard anything but praise from his teammates, especially the young pitchers he helped mentor.

Chris Bassitt – stock: up
Bassitt joins the Mets with a reputation as a control pitcher with a deep arsenal who doesn’t rely on velocity. He sports one of the A.L.’s best ERAs over the last few years, and starts the season healthy, which is better than the 2021 Mets could say about their prospective #3 starter.

Carlos Carrasco – stock: down
Carrasco showed only the briefest hints in 2021 of the pitcher who dominated in Cleveland. Opponents crushed him in the first inning, regularly putting the Mets in a hole. His command tended to improve as games went on, but he remained homer prone. He almost never threw his curveball, a key pitch for him in Cleveland. After several injuries, it remains to be seen if he has anything left at age 35. The Mets have to hope that an offseason elbow “clean-up” will make a big difference.

Taijuan Walker – stock: unchanged
Walker entered 2021 as a relative wild card, then looked like the find of the offseason in the first half, pitching his way to the All-Star Game. Walker showed great late movement on a variety of pitches, and although he was a bit wild early on, he threw more and more strikes as the first half progressed (though not always to the catcher’s target). In the second half, unfortunately, that formula completely fell apart, as Walker was clubbed to the tune of a 7.13 ERA and didn’t look like a competitive major league pitcher by the season’s end. With no injuries announced, Mets fans are hoping that Walker simply ran out of gas and will hold up better in 2022 with a full season finally under his belt after fits and starts earlier in his career.

David Peterson – stock: down
In 2020, Peterson came out of nowhere (well, AA) and instantly looked like a clutch performer with a good slider and some late movement on his fastball. Unfortunately he couldn’t repeat any of that in 2021, with only a few really good starts, and plenty of meltdowns. Mets fans have to wonder whether he can bounce back, or whether there’s a reason we’d never heard of him two years ago.

Tylor Megill – stock: way up
Megill was the latest in the Mets’ parade of “great then terrible” starting pitchers. With only a handful of starts above A ball, Megill broke into the majors with a 2.04 ERA over his first 7 starts, showing great velocity, good late movement on his slider and change-up, and a “slow heartbeat” that kept him looking calm in all situations. He also threw plenty of strikes without leaving anything in the middle of the plate.

Then things suddenly turned, with Megill getting his secondary stuff up and becoming a homerun machine, for a 6.13 ERA over his last 11 starts.

As with Walker, Mets fans have to hope the increased workload was to blame and that Megill will have more endurance in 2022.

Trevor Williams – stock: unchanged
Formerly known to Mets fans for giving up a homerun to Jacob deGrom, Williams joined the Mets at mid-season and was extremely reliable, avoiding walks and getting ground balls as both a starter and reliever. Ticketed for the bullpen to start 2022, Williams probably also represents the Mets’ best starting rotation depth option.

Meanwhile, old friend Noah Syndergaard initially gushed about the Mets extending him a qualifying offer early in the offseason, then took a few million more to jump ship for the Angels. It’s hard to know what Thor’s thinking really was, but his line to the media was uncertainty over the Mets front office. So he could be a casualty of Alderson taking too long to settle on Eppler. Given that Noah’s last good year was 2018 and his only pitches since 2019 were two cameos in 2021’s final week, the Mets may be lucky that the Angels outbid them.

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz – stock: unchanged
At this point, Mets fans know what to expect from Diaz: nasy stuff, erratic control, plenty of dominant outings, but far too many clunkers for your ninth-inning last line of defense. There are some days when Diaz is getting under the ball, and his slider is flat and his fastball is wild, and on those days what he really needs is a quick hook. If Showalter has the guts to yank his closer at those times, then we can just appreciate how Diaz blows opponents away when he’s on.

Trevor May – stock: unchanged
May had some good stretches and some bad stretches, putting up similar overall numbers to his recent seasons as a Twin. While not exactly a shut-down asset, May is a perfectly fine member of the late-inning relief corps.

Seth Lugo – stock: unchanged
Lugo was less reliable in 2021 than he had been for the past few years, with a few costly mistakes at big moments. His velocity and secondary stuff looked the same, so if he can locate a bit better and command his fastball, it’s easy to imagine better in 2022.

Adam Ottavino – stock: down
Ottavino’s had some good years, but not recently, as he hasn’t been able to consistently locate his wipeout slider. He might be primarily a righty specialist, which is less than what Miguel Castro offered the Mets.

Joely Rodriguez – stock: down
Established LOOGY Aaron Loup is replaced by LOOGY-hopeful Rodriguez, a desperation last-second lefty acquisition in exchange for the much more talented Miguel Castro.

Loup leaves the Mets after posting one of the team’s all-time best relief performances in 2021, with an 0.95 ERA and a team-leading 2 WPA. In a season of up-and-down pitching, Loup was the one constant who the Mets could rely on to slam the door on opponents’ rallies. He expressed a desire to return, but quickly signed elsewhere when the Angels made an aggressive bid for him early in the offseason and the then-in-progress Mets front office didn’t match.

Bullpen depth – stock: unchanged
Chasen Shreve has had some recent success, while Sean Reid-Foley and Drew Smith have both struggled to stay healthy.

Gone is Jeurys Familia, who looked like his old self for a few months in 2021 before he started getting the ball up and allowing big homers.

Minor leaguers of note

The Mets dealt Pete Crow-Armstrong for a few months of Baez and J.T. Ginn for a year of Bassitt, while Matthew Allan got Tommy John surgery and had a setback in his recovery. That leaves the Mets’ top prospects as Ronny Mauricio, who still impresses with his tools and tantalizes with his youth despite poor offensive stats; Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, who can crush the ball but have serious contact issues; and the system’s crown jewel, Francisco Alvarez. Alvarez tore up high-A ball, something 19-year-old catchers don’t do very often, vaulting him to the status of a top-ten prospect in baseball.
None of this group projects to help in 2022 except perhaps for Vientos, who clubbed 25 HRs in 83 games in AA and AAA.

Summing it up

Changes since a year ago

Stock way down: Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor and Dominic Smith (performance); Jacob deGrom (injuries)

Stock down: Nimmo, J.D. Davis, McCann, Carrasco, Peterson, the middle of the bullpen

Stock unchanged: most of the bullpen, the bench, and the new OFs replacing their 2021 counterparts

Stock up: new acquisitions Escobar and Bassitt

Stock way up: Alvarez achieving top prospect status; Megill making the majors out of nowhere; the arrival of Scherzer

Multi-Year Trends

Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis continued to fall from their 2019 peaks. At virtually every other position, the Mets have either stayed the same for a while, or have been up and down.

What it all means

The 2022 roster looks good on paper, but so did the 2021 squad that finished 76-86. The hope now is that a new manager, a few key new faces, and better luck on the injury front will help the team turn the page from recent disappointments. With an expanded playoff field in 2022 and a record payroll, the Mets really need to earn a postseason berth at minimum. Replacing the reviled Wilpons with a big-spending owner was supposed to change the team’s fortunes, and if that doesn’t happen this year, Mets fans may be wondering if their team is cursed or broken in some more intractable way.

Fans would also love to see some signs of a model for future success, seeing as how no team can simply buy top free agents year after year. With several high picks coming their way in the next draft, it seems likely that the Mets hope to follow the Dodgers’ blueprint from a decade back, spending money for success in the short term while laying the building blocks for a sustainable winner in the future. Certainly it would help the Mets if they can draft and develop players like Corey Seager, but they’ll also need a front office and analytics team that’s ahead of the curve, able to spot players like Max Muncy and Chris Taylor and help them take their performance to new levels. Billy Eppler’s time with the Angels was not at all promising in this regard, as the team consistently failed to fill out a useful roster around its superstars. Some claim owner Arte Moreno was overly involved, but Moreno, like Cohen, was certainly motivated to shell out big bucks for a winner. The Angels simply failed to develop young talent, and to identify and nurture pitching talent more generally.

Based on the 2021 hitting coach debacle, the Mets have yet to learn that more analytics and more effective analytics are two different things. Today’s best franchises don’t use pitcher tendency data to flood hitters’ brains; they use biomechanical metrics and training to improve swings and pitches. Hopefully Cohen will outgrow Alderson at some point and put baseball infrastructure decisions in the hands of a more innovative brain trust. We don’t know for sure that Eppler isn’t that guy, but we have no particular reason to think that he is, either. Much of Billy’s experience came under Brian Cashman, so if Eppler can turn Yankees-like budgets into Yankees-like results, that would certainly mean a lot more wins than the Mets have seen lately. That may not be the same as catching up to the Rays, er, Braves, though.

In 2021, Mets fans looked to see the start of a new era, both on the field and in the front office. They’ll be looking even more desperately for that in 2022.

There are now two weeks to go before the midway point of the season. I’m hoping that a lot happens in those two weeks to clarify what kind of team the 2021 Mets can be. Will hot players cool off? Will slumping players bounce back? Will injured players return and contribute? Before we get the answers to those questions, let’s take stock what we’ve already seen.

The Manager

Luis Rojas – B
The team has been hit as hard by injuries as any team I’ve seen, and the healthy lineup anchors have underperformed. And yet, somehow, the Mets’ fortunes climbed as high as a 35-25 record with a 5 game lead in the NL East. That’s the stuff Manager of the Year campaigns are made of.

The 2021 team has stayed positive and pretty focused. The pitching has excelled despite all sorts of disruptions which have required multiple bullpen games.

Rojas does make the occasional strategic blunder, which is why I’m not giving him an “A”, but no manager is perfect, and Luis has done an admirable job overall with what he’s had to work with.

The Players

Jacob deGrom – A+
Jake has had trouble staying on the mound due to various arm issues, but on a per inning basis is off to the best start in MLB history. Two 1-0 losses leave his record less than perfect, but team has actually held leads for him for a change. He’s 7-2, with the team 9-3 in his starts.

Taijuan Walker – A
Walker has given the Mets more than they could have possibly expected. He doesn’t always hit the glove, but he has decreased his walks as the season’s gone on, while keeping hitters off-balance with pitch variety and movement.

Marcus Stroman – A-
Stro’s rate stats are nothing special, but he has been consistent, tough with men on base, and a groundball machine. His 2.32 ERA is spectacular, and he leads the team in innings.

Edwin Diaz – B+
Diaz has 2 losses, and his ERA is nothing special, but he’s 15 for 16 in save chances, and his walks are down.

Aaron Loup – B+
Loup has been tough on lefties and has survived against righties. He’s gotten a lot of big outs.

Jonathan Villar – B+
He’s only hitting .240, but Villar has been stellar in other areas. He’s currently fourth on the team in plate appearances (due to injuries to the planned starters) and the Mets would have been lost without him. Villar has contributed some great defense, some great baserunning, some walks and some homers. He’s prone to the occasional gaffe, but he more than makes up for it.

Kevin Pillar – B
Pillar hasn’t gotten on base much, but has provided more power than expected. His speed is not what it used to be, but he’s still a good OF. Also a fantastic leader by example.

Tomas Nido – B
Nido got hot and carried the offense to a few low-scoring wins when everyone else was cold or hurt, leaving him as the team leader in Win Probability Added even now, after he’s regressed to his usual levels of offense. Solid behind the plate as always.

Miguel Castro – B
Castro has had a few clunkers and a lot of walk-induced nail-biters, but has gotten the job done more often than not. His change-up was dominant in April, but now he’s throwing all sliders. His fastball command remains poor, but its velocity complements his other pitches well.

Seth Lugo – B
Lugo has jumped right into a high-leverage role off the injured list. He was great at first, but has struggled recently.

Jeurys Familia – B
Recently Familia has been worked hard, and his performance and health have suffered. Before that, though, he looked the best he has since 2016, getting lots of weak grounders. Some of those have found holes, making his numbers look worse than how well he’s pitched.

Sean Reid-Foley – B
Sean has provided great value as multi-inning reliever. After seven excellent appearances, he got lit up in his last one.

Robert Gsellman – C+
His sinker was actually sinking again, and his walks and HRs were down… until he tore a lat muscle and now will miss 2 months.

James McCann – C+
MCCann has looked more like the hitter he was in Detroit (poor) than Chicago (good), but his defense has been even better than advertised, as the best game-caller in recent memory among Mets primary catchers.

Pete Alonso – C
Pete has been excellent with the glove, but has rarely squared up the ball at the plate, and has already had several slumps where he’s waved at junk and popped up meatballs. He looked like 2019 Pete in spring training, but hasn’t carried it over to the games that count.

Joey Lucchesi – C
Lucchesi initially struggled while pitching irregularly, but became quite effective two times through the lineup as a regular starter. Pitching his best baseball of the year, he tore his UCL last week and is now finished for the season.

Trevor May – C-
Erratic; dominant one day, batting practice the next.

Dominic Smith – C-
Smith has gotten better in LF but is still below average. 2021 has seen a huge decline with the bat. He’s rarely squaring up pitches to hit, and he’s also waving at a ton of stuff above the zone or in the dirt middle-to-in. The back foot breaking ball is an almost automatic chase.

Michael Conforto – C-
At the start of 2021, Conforto did not resemble the hitter he was in 2020, when he hit a ton of opposite-field, 2-strike singles. Instead, he looked back to his old all-or-nothing self… but without the power. Then he got hurt.

Jeff McNeil – C-
McNeil rarely struck out, but he couldn’t square up many pitches, looking bad on anything up or away. He got hurt in the same game as Conforto.

Lindor – D
Anyone who expected Lindor to save the Mets has to be very disappointed. He’s provided great first-step quickness and range in the field, and he’s always talking and effervescent, but the positives stop there.

Lindor has shown an ugly swing, terrible situational hitting, and a propensity for choking with RISP. His arm is mediocre, and he’s made several questionable decisions in the field, such as turning down DPs in favor of one easy out. He sometimes runs hard to first, but sometimes not. He didn’t attempt any steals until he got hot at the plate, despite having drawn plenty of walks.

As one of two healthy guys in there all year (alongside Dom Smith), Lindor had the chance to be an enormous difference maker in all the low-scoring games the Mets played. Instead, he’s slashed .212/.304/.351 and contributed -0.3 WPA.

He’s appointed himself the leader of the team, and perhaps his positive attitude is helping, but he certainly isn’t leading by example at the plate.

David Peterson – D
Two excellent starts, six okay starts, and five absolute disasters. Peterson has tended to lose control very badly and not get it back, resulting in both walks and homers.

This is the eighth annual article on this topic.

Links to previous editions: 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020

The story so far…

The 2017-2019 Mets gave fans ulcers, finding myriad ways to disappoint, from starting pitching (2017) to health and defense (2018) to the manager and closer (2019). Each year, preseason forecasts saw the Mets as contenders, and each year, they failed to live up to the predictions.

Nevertheless, a certain amount of optimism surrounded the team after their 86-win 2019, thanks to huge breakouts from young players Amed Rosario, Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, and especially Pete Alonso. If the starting pitching could hold steady while the offense continued to mature, then perhaps new manager Luis Rojas and a return to form from relievers Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz could get the Mets over the hump in 2020 for their first playoff games since 2016…

2020-2021 developments

More ulcers! More disappointment! More great individual performances wasted! National pundits have latched onto the Mets franchise as a punchline for self-sabotage, and in 2020 they were at it again, as the Mets offered a clinic in choking.

The Mets offense put up exceptional numbers, leading the league in batting average and OPS+ while finishing 3rd in OPS overall… but they were only 7th in runs. With men on, and especially with men in scoring position, the bats went silent time and time again. Boasting a .272 average and a .245 mark with RISP, the Mets’ -27 point difference was the worst in the majors.

This sort of choke fest can be a sign of a fractious and dysfunctional team or clubhouse, but the 2020 Mets actually seemed quite harmonious. The guys seemed to really like each other, and Luis Rojas showed a much better knack for communication than his predecessor. From all appearances, Rojas did his best to run out the best lineup every day, and he didn’t make any enemies among the players he had to bench or demote in the process. Luis managed to be honest with the media while keeping any criticisms of players professional and goal-oriented. By all accounts, he kept a very even keel, and the players loved him. The team-wide failure in the clutch defied any simple “bad environment” explanations.

To be fair, clutch hitting wasn’t the Mets’ only weakness. Their defense rated near the bottom of the league, and their pitching was unreliable. Late in the season, it seemed like every time the offense did turn hits into runs, a pitcher would blow a lead. The starting pitching was terrible all year, and the up-and-down bullpen was not very clutch in the second half.

The bar for making the MLB postseason has never been anywhere near as low as it was in 2020, and the Mets just couldn’t scratch out wins. They ended the year tied for the 3rd worst record in the league.

Despite all that, the team’s poor play wasn’t at the forefront of fans’ minds in October 2020. The main storyline was the sale of the team from the resented Wilpons to billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen. By early November, the sale to Cohen was official, and he was telling Mets fans exactly what they wanted to hear: that he wanted to build a World Series winner, and was willing to pay to make that happen.

Cohen’s regime got off to an odd start, when he brought recent (and largely unsuccessful) Mets GM Sandy Alderson back to be team president, then couldn’t find a taker for the team’s President of Baseball Operations position, meaning Alderson had to fill that role himself.

Fortunately, new GM Jared Porter quickly diverged from Alderson’s previous strategy of “waiting out the market” for everything, instead pouncing quickly on some useful pieces and then swinging a trade for the most talented available player in Francisco Lindor.

The Porter era came to an abrupt end 12 days later: he was fired after news broke that he’d spent a good chunk of 2016 making unwanted advances on a reporter. Zack Scott, who’d interviewed for the GM job before being hired to assist Porter, was named Interim GM.

Stock Up, Stock Down

Let’s take a deeper look at how the players performed in 2020, and see what we can take away for 2021. Given those performances, as well as the subsequent changes in personnel, should we be more or less bullish on the Mets now than we were heading into last season? Is the team trending up, or trending down?

Catcher

James McCann – stock: unchanged
Wilson Ramos was a complete disaster in 2020, but he came in with a much better offensive track record than McCann brings to the Mets. Ramos was a solid hitter for most of the previous 9 years, while McCann was a terrible hitter for 4 years in Detroit before putting up good numbers over 149 games with the White Sox.

On the defensive side, McCann and Ramos boast similar Caught Stealing numbers, and McCann’s framing stats have been all over the place, but it’s a safe bet that McCann constitutes a defensive upgrade from Ramos. Ramos showed no mobility, failing to get down multiple tags at home, and the leg-extended crouch he used to better frame low pitches left him completely unable to move side to side to stop any potential wild pitches.

Tomas Nido – stock: unchanged
Nido missed time due to COVID-19 and only got into 7 games.

First Base

Pete Alonso – stock: down
Few expected Pete to repeat his 53-homer 2019, and his strikeout rate was always going to be an issue, but 2020 still had to qualify as a disappointment. Something about his set-up, stride, and swing looked different from 2019, and he wound up spinning and falling over the plate on every hack, completely unable to cover the outside edge (which was a strength in 2019). A surge in the season’s final week elevated his stats, but up until then, Pete was an easy out.

Fans now have to hope the Polar Bear can rediscover his 2019 form, as the only thing he really needed to improve on from there was pitch selection and chasing fewer balls out of the zone.

Second Base

Jeff McNeil – stock: down (personal), way up (Mets 2B)
It looked like the Mets were going to play 2020 with a washed-up Cano at second base, so using McNeil there in 2021 certainly has to be seen as a better way to head into a season. In reality, Cano had a fantastic 2020 at the plate, one McNeil will be hard-pressed to match.

McNeil kept the open stance he adopted halfway through 2019, and suffered the worst of both worlds, failing to retain his power while also keeping the uppercut that ruined his previous line-drive ways. Although no longer the impressive force he was in early 2019, McNeil still proved to be a good hitter overall, mixing in one red-hot stretch with some more pedestrian periods.

Robinson Cano – stock: unchanged
In 2020, Cano showed a much quicker bat than in 2019. He still wasn’t great in the field, but looked like he old self at the plate. Was he juicing again? Yep. He eventually got caught and will miss the 2021 season due to the resulting suspension.

Third Base

J.D. Davis – stock: down
J.D. did not reprise 2020’s offensive breakout in 2021, hitting the ball with much less authority. He did show a good eye, and his high OBP meant he still qualified as an above-average bat in the lineup. Unfortunately, regular playing time did not improve his defense, which was awful in just about every way.

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor – stock: way up
Even though hopes were high for Amed Rosario after a solid 2019, Lindor has to be seen as a huge upgrade. Francisco is universally regarded as one of the best shortstops in the game, a good-to-great fielder with great contact ability, good speed, and above-average pop. With the Mets locking him up for 11 years and $363m, there’s every reason to think he’ll be a star for the next 3-5 years and a payroll black hole for much of the subsequent 6-8, so here’s hoping Steve Cohen doesn’t care about luxury taxes!

As for Amed Rosario, he’s gone to Cleveland after reverting to his wild-swinging ways in 2020 (he got an ovation when he drew his first walk at 100+ ABs). It was a disappointing ride for a prospect once regarded by some as #1 in baseball. Also gone in the Lindor trade is Andres Gimenez, who had an impressive 2020 debut, showing speed, defense, basestealing ability, and flashes of being a legitimate hitter.

Left Field

Dominic Smith – stock: up
Though clearly miscast as an outfielder due to his lack of speed, Dom didn’t let his journey between 1B, DH and LF affect his swing. Smith absolutely raked in 2020, until a slump at the very end of the season got his OPS under 1.000. Dom nearly led the league in doubles, and was easily the Mets’ best RBI machine and clutch hitter.

Along the way, Dom wound up as one of the faces of MLB for racial justice, not due to any brilliant speeches or campaigning, but rather by being vulnerable and honest in public, and being so well liked by his teammates that they wanted to support him and the issues that mattered to him. Smith was one of MLB’s good guys of 2020.

Meanwhile, Yoenis Cespedes disappeared on the team one day and never came back, eventually claiming COVID-19 concerns, but actually upset about not being given enough playing time to earn his performance bonuses. This after a .161 start. The team’s star of 2015-2016 will not be missed.

Center Field

Brandon Nimmo – stock: up
Back to full health after neck problems in 2019, Nimmo returned to his .400-OBP ways in 2020, while posting the lowest K rate of his career. Unfortunately, he was still terrible in center field. With the Mets prioritizing upgrades in other areas this past offseason, and currently using LF to shoehorn Dom Smith’s bat into the lineup, Nimmo returns for another go in center, this time with a plan to play deeper.

Right Field

Michael Conforto – stock: up
In 2020, Conforto suddenly learned how to fight off pitches to the opposite field, producing lots of singles. That .322 avg looks like a whole new hitter, but Michael posted the same strikeout rate as every other year of his career, which makes me wonder if his huge BABIP jump was mostly luck.

Starting Pitcher

Jacob deGrom – stock: unchanged
With two Cy Young awards already on his mantle, deGrom threw harder than ever in 2020 and struck out more batters than ever, whiffing a ridiculous 13.8 per 9 innings, which would have been an NL record in a full season.

Earlier in his career, Jake used to keep hitters off balance by mixing pitches, but by 2020 he had evolved into more of a pure power guy, identifying a pitch for each hitter that the hitter couldn’t handle, and largely just sticking with that pitch. In 2020, that was often his slider, which was more of a true slider than ever before. Back in 2018, the pitch looked more like a slider-cutter hybrid — it had a very short break and deGrom was able to locate it very consistently, without a single “hanger” of the type that happens from time to time with a true breaking ball. In 2020, the pitch no longer resembled a cutter — it had a sizable two-plane break that missed bats, but deGrom also hung a few that were clobbered.

It was strange to watch deGrom throw the same one or two pitches over and over, allowing hitters to time them and lineups to predict them. His strike-throwing was also bit less consistent than in the past, with fewer pitches at the knees. In the end, though, he finished 3rd in the Cy Young vote and is still regarded by many as the game’s best pitcher.

Marcus Stroman – stock: unchanged
Stroman sat out 2020 due to COVID-19 concerns, but looks ready to go for 2021. Based on an up-and-down career so far, Marcus offers serious upside but minimal certainty.

Carlos Carrasco – stock: up
Carrasco’s track record with the Indians as a dominant breaking ball pitcher would make him the Mets’ clear #2 if he were healthy. Unfortunately, Carlos tore a hamstring doing routine conditioning drills in the spring. For this 34-year-old veteran, is this just a blip, or the beginning of the end? Assuming he makes it back at all in 2021, one would expect Carrasco to be an improvement over the Mets’ #3 candidates in 2020.

Gone is longtime Met Steven Matz, who really didn’t do anything well at any point in 2020. Rick Porcello occasionally looked really good, going right after batters, but his propensity for throwing 0-2 pitches down the middle with men in scoring position was maddening, and his final line was ugly. Michael Wacha showed strikeout stuff between his elite change-up and weird arm angle, but made way too many mistakes over the middle for homeruns.

Taijuan Walker – stock: up
Walker’s stock over the years has been as up and down as any player in the game, from ultra-elite prospect to underwhelming big leaguer to injury casualty to stretch drive hero. In his final six starts with Toronto in 2020, Taijuan posted a 1.37 ERA to help the Blue Jays clinch a wild card spot, leading some to think the once-hyped hurler had finally “figured it out”. Less encouragingly, Walker’s key rate stats – walks, strikeouts, homeruns – were all below average, suggesting he may have gotten lucky. He’ll probably need to improve those numbers to be anything more than a back-end starter in 2021, but he’s definitely a better bet than Wacha was!

David Peterson – stock: way up
With Jacob deGrom followed in the rotation by a bunch of total disasters, emergency promotion David Peterson stepped up as the team’s #2 in 2020. Although he walked far too many batters, he showed a knack for getting out of trouble, often making a big pitch when he had to. He didn’t look fazed by the big stage, with his walks resulting more from occasional lapses in control than from nibbling.

Peterson showed a good slider, an adequate change-up, and a fastball that didn’t get barreled up too much. It’s unclear what to expect from him going forward, but simply having a chance to stick in the 2021 rotation has to be seen as a huge leap forward.

Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto – stock: up
I’m not sure if these pitchers provide any more guarantee of quality than 2020’s back end starters did, but I’ll take the upside and years of team control. As a lefty with a weird motion (dramatic front shoulder lift a la Chris Young) and unusual pitch (“churve” change-up curveball hybrid), Lucchesi has the potential to give hitters fits. Yamamoto starts the year in the minors.

Noah Syndergaard – stock: unchanged
Thor continues his Tommy John rehab, with a possible return in June. Some look at him as a mid-season difference-maker who warrants an extension before free agency. I see a pitcher who needs to prove he can perform after disappointing in 3 of the last 4 years.

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz – stock: unchanged
Diaz posted some dominant rate stats in 2020, but was extremely un-clutch and couldn’t be trusted in a big spot. He also didn’t show much control, and was a bit lucky that all those walks didn’t lead to more runs. His astronomical K rate declined as the year went on, and he seemed to have lost some gas by the end of the shortened season. His elite stuff is a welcome inclusion in the Mets bullpen, but employing him as the last line of defense with no safety net rightly makes many Mets fans very nervous.

Trevor May – stock: unchanged
A high fastball pitcher with tons of strikeouts and tons of homeruns on his resume, May signed early in the offseason to be the Mets’ set-up man after the Twins let him walk. Whether he’s a big asset in the 8th inning remains to be seen, but at least he adds another capable arm to offset the loss of Justin Wilson, who the Mets did not re-sign.

Seth Lugo – stock: unchanged
Lugo pitched very well in relief in 2020, although nowhere near his utter dominance from late 2019. Moved to the rotation to finish the year, Seth alternated excellent starts with terrible ones, unable to avert meltdowns once they started. He’s ticketed for the ‘pen in 2021 once he recovers from “minor” elbow surgery.

Miguel Castro – stock: unchanged
Castro has eye-catching stuff but little ability to harness it. At age 26, the Mets hope he still has some time to figure out how to get his 100 mph heat where he wants it on a regular basis.

Tantalizing upside plus known issues? This reminds me of how Dellin Betances entered 2020. Betances, though still with the team in 2021, turned out to be finished.

Jeurys Familia – stock: unchanged
After being unusable in 2019, Familia returned to getting grounders and limiting homeruns in 2020. Unfortunately his strikeouts declined and he averaged 6.4 walks per 9 innings. He enters 2021 somewhere in the middle of the bullpen depth chart, mostly out of necessity.

Bullpen depth – stock: down
Aaron Loup was acquired to be a lefty specialist, an interesting proposition in the 3-batter era. He’s also the only lefty on the staff. Robert Gsellman, Jacob Barnes, Trevor Hildenberger, Stephen Tarpley, Sam McWilliams and Drew Smith are all in the running to soak up some low-leverage innings. This group has even less of a track record than 2020’s back-end corps.

Minor leaguers of note

The minor leagues didn’t play in 2020, so the Mets are still waiting to see the next step from talented kids Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez, and 2019 draftees Brett Baty and Matthew Allan, plus new draftee Pete Crow-Armstrong. No prospects are currently knocking on the big league door.

Summing it up

Changes since a year ago

Stock way down: The Mets haven’t really had any player or position fall off a cliff since opening day 2020.

Stock down: Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, and Jeff McNeil. Three 2019 breakouts couldn’t reach those levels in 2020, but were still solid.

Stock unchanged: deGrom, the bullpen, the catcher, and the MIA list

Stock up: Carlos Carrasco is a nice addition, while Nimmo, Conforto, and Dom Smith all had good years in 2020. Walker, Lucchesi and Yamamoto upgrade the starting pitching depth.

Stock way up: David Peterson skipped AAA and found success in the majors, and Francisco Lindor joins the Mets as an established star.

Multi-Year Trends

With most of the Mets’ ascending players having leveled off, only Dominic Smith continued a multi-season rise in 2020.

What it all means

Did Francisco Lindor just get handed the largest assignment in baseball? He just signed one of the richest contracts in sports history, and he’s being asked to address many of the team’s biggest needs.

• The Mets have been a bad defensive team for a long time. Lindor is a gold glove shortstop.
• The Mets have underachievd for years, with many viewing the organization as dysfunctional losers. Lindor is a charismatic leader known as “Mr. Smile”, and he’s played in four of the last five postseasons.
• The Mets have looked good but not great to most prediction models over the last four years, a probable contender but not a favorite. Lindor’s big WAR boost vaults the Mets to the top of the projections (or just behind the Braves, depending on the model).

Whether anyone in the Mets organization really expects all that of Lindor or not, he certainly was the centerpiece of the Mets’ offseason. With Steve Cohen talking about building a champion, some expected him to land multiple top free agents from the group of George Springer, J.T. Realmuto and Trevor Bauer. The Mets acquired none of them (they did outbid the Dodgers for Bauer, but Bauer decided to join the proven winner).

With most of the Mets’ other offseason moves being relatively modest, spring training saw some fans getting anxious to see Cohen back up his words with dollars. Giving Lindor another $341 million probably puts that question to rest. Now the question is whether Cohen, Alderson, and the rest of the front office can spend effectively.

If the 2021 Mets are going to succeed, they need to overcome more than just their own history: three out of their four division rivals are stacked with talent, and the fourth one (Miami) made the playoff last year and boasts a nasty young rotation. Lindor and improved starting pitching should make the Mets a better team than 2020’s 26-34 squad, but the huge leap forward they’ll need in order to take the NL East crown will require better performances up and down the roster, including everything from fielding to baserunning to clutch hitting. If they can’t quite make it past the Braves, a wild card may be a longshot, given the easier competition faced by West and Central contenders.

Cohen said his goal was a championship in 3-5 years, not in year 1. But it sure would be nice if the Mets made the playoffs in 2021 to show they’re on the right track. If not, don’t be surprised if Luis Rojas’s mild demeanor gets painted as a lack of urgency and competitive fire, and a new manager gets brought in to “teach the Mets how to win”. Mets fans will be watching closely this year to see whether the play on the field looks like a new era or just more of the same.

Here’s the Mets Today Plan: pick five of the six domed stadiums in MLB. For the sake of this article those five will be Chase Field (Arizona), Safeco Field (Seattle), Minute Maid Park (Houston), Miller Park (Milwaukee) and Marlins Stadium (Miami). Each stadium will be the site of a “division” that consists of six teams.

Details, details, but the Mets will call Miami home for the next few months and play 22 games each against their other 4 NLE opponents, plus one. For the sake of the story we can designate the Pittsburgh Pirates as that plus one. The result is a legion ball-style tournament that goes on all summer. Three games per day, all played under a roof in air-conditioned comfort for the players. If the weather is nice in Miami or Phoenix, or Seattle, or Houston, or Milwaukee, the roof can be opened. No fans, at least in the beginning. Maybe later in the season 10,000 tickets are made available (more than what the Marlins will usually draw). Other social distancing “suggestions” will apply. Each team has 11 home games agains divisional opponents

There will be five division winners, plus one wild card. The one with the best record draws the wild card team, while the other four square off. At the conclusion of these best of five series, the seeds are restructured with the team with the best record drawing a bye, while the other two go head to head in a best of three. The survivor plays the bye team in a World Series.

Having observed lots of baseball tournaments in my day, this neutral site round robin format could work. There is no perfect solution but I think this one covers most of the major issues (weather, game start times, enough games to make a “legit” season). I would love nothing better than to see baseball again this summer played at Citi Field with GKR calling the games, but I think that we need to be realistic.

The 2019 Mets were an erratic bunch, a team that could go toe to toe with the Dodgers in one series and get swept by the Marlins in another. Although few individual performances went as anticipated, the team overall did about what was expected of them: most projection models had them at 83-89 wins, and they finished with 86.

Now for the next task: how do the Mets go from a wild card contender (86 wins) to a wild card favorite and division title contender (92 wins)?

The Current Team

The Mets have an interesting array of assets to keep, trade, or shuffle around the field. By my estimation, the best use of the current roster would be:

C Wilson Ramos
1B Pete Alonso
2B Jeff McNeil
3B J.D. Davis
SS Amed Rosario
LF Brandon Nimmo
RF Michael Conforto
CF new acquisition

Bullpen: Seth Lugo, new acquisitions, Justin Wilson, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, re-sign Brad Brach
Bench: Robinson Cano, Dominic Smith, Jed Lowrie, Luis Guillorme, new acquisitions

(I’m sure that some of that assessment will be controversial, but in brief: I saw a free swinger who did little damage on fastballs and showed minimal range in Robbie Cano; I saw a terrible fielder with a great arm and bat in J.D. Davis; and I saw a player miss his entire age-35 season in Jed Lowrie.)

Free Agents

Can the Mets land a fifth starter, set-up man, center fielder and depth in free agency? Possibly. Brett Gardner, Tanner Roark, and Will Harris would add up to a significant cost, but if the Wilpons figured that would push them into the playoffs, I’m sure they could afford it.

Does that sound like a 92-win team to you, though? Aside from Harris (possibly the best free agent reliever out there), I think the Mets need to aim higher.

If I had to pick one free agent to target, it would be Madison Bumgarner. He’s not the strikeout pitcher he once was, and his flyball ways are dangerous with today’s rubber rocket ball, but he limits walks, takes the ball, and is as clutch as they come. Plus, the Mets cannot hit him at all, and his top rumored suitor is the Braves.

My back-up plans would be Dallas Keuchel and Hyun-Jin Ryu. All three pitchers are way better than what the Mets have in-house or could get from the free agent bargain bin.

If the Mets can’t spend big in free agency, then I’d target Tyler Clippard to stabilize the ‘pen and Michael Pineda to hold down the #5 spot (with Robert Gsellman making starts in AAA to hedge against injury).

Trades

Stay away from Starling Marte. Kazmir fiasco architect Jim Duquette recently proposed a swap of Andres Gimenez, Franklyn Kilome, and either Mark Vientos or David Peterson. That package might be appropriate for Marte three years ago, but it’s not appropriate for Marte now, and if he costs anything like that, the Mets should pass. Starling used to be a gold glove speedster with no plate discipline and good contact ability. Now he’s an average-to-below center fielder with no plate discipline and good contact ability.

I’m honestly not all that high on any of those prospects, but I think the Mets ought to hold onto them to fill other needs.

I am pretty high on J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, and Noah Syndergaard, but I think trading them might get the Mets players that would greatly upgrade the team. Here are a few trade ideas:

Noah Syndergaard for Byron Buxton and Tyler Duffey

A risky move for both teams, as Buxton could still wind up as an All-Star or a tragic flame-out. He may never stay healthy, and he may never hit much. But he’s still one of the fastest men in the game and one of the best defenders. The Twins, in a great position to contend, may need a proven starting pitcher with ace potential much more than they need Buxton. Depending on how both players are viewed, the Mets might also ask for the Twins’ curveball-specialist reliever.

Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, Jed Lowrie and cash for Corey Kluber or Jose Ramirez

Reports claim that the Indians need to cut payroll and do some level of rebuilding, but they’re not in a position where they have to tank to do so. I would think the ideal fit for a team in this position would be players who have proven themselves as major leaguers and who still have tons of service time left at cheap salaries. Dom and J.D. might be exactly what Cleveland is looking for. If so, the Indians might be persuaded to move their high-salaried ace, or even their former MVP candidate (though his contract is a great deal, so perhaps not).

If the Mets hold onto Thor and still need a center fielder, they could consider offering Kluber or Ramirez for Buxton and Duffey. A three-team trade with additional prospects involved might be the best way for each team to get what they want.

Dominic Smith for Tyler Naquin

I realize that many of the above scenarios are improbable for various reasons, but I think this one has a real chance. Naquin’s bat and health are no sure thing, and he’s about to stop being cheap as he hits arbitration, but all the defensive metrics love him. Smith can pinch hit and share time at 1B, LF, and DH in 2020. Then Dom can take over 1B when Carlos Santana leaves in 2021, and he still won’t be arbitration eligible.

What are your thoughts on how to improve the Mets roster? Zany trade ideas obviously welcome.

When Mickey Callaway was first brought on board, I thought he was the perfect hire in every way except for one big unknown: experience.

He seemed like a sharp enough guy to figure out the right tactical moves, but as it turned out, when it came to the heat of the moment… not so much.

There was really no way to predict that, one way or the other, before Mickey actually went out there and managed. So it was a risky hire, and in that respect, it didn’t work out.

Accordingly, I assumed that if the Mets were to replace Callaway this offseason, their main reason for doing so would be to get a proven, experienced in-game tactician.

Instead they just tabbed a guy who’s never managed or coached at any level.

I don’t have anything against Beltran for the final out in 2006, or for being hostile to the press for most of his time as a Met. He was a great player! But of all the manager candidates remaining, I had him pegged as probably the worst option.

Tim Bogar, Derek Shelton and Pat Murphy have way more experience. Eduardo Perez has a little more experience, and is 1000 times better with the media. After Maddon & Girardi signed elsewhere, I sort of figured we’d get Perez, because he’s loud and fun and analytics-savvy and is great in front of a camera. It would have been a gamble, and I wouldn’t have agreed with it, but I’d have understood it.

Picking Beltran, I don’t understand at all.

I don’t find Girardi at all likable, but he has proven he can do the job. That’s really what the Mets needed for 2020. If they weren’t going to get that, I’d have just as soon stuck with Callaway.

How badly do the Mets and their much-maligned owners and their brand new GM really want a title shot in 2019?

How badly do they want to build an affordable core that can promise contention into the future?

These two goals may be directly opposed. Which will win out?

Mets fans, which do you want to win out?

The Seattle Mariners have provided Brodie Van Wagenen with exactly the sort of opportunity I often chastised Sandy Alderson for not pouncing on. The opportunity has arrived to shop at a fire sale. Surely the Mariners will have plenty of buyers dropping by for a look, but the rumor mill currently has the Mets leading the charge to mine Seattle for valuables in exchange for taking on Robinson Cano’s contract.

The Mets and Mariners have an enormous number of potential matches:

If the Mets want to win in 2019, they’d be wise to upgrade at center field, catcher, shortstop, another infield position, and closer. The Mariners have good but expensive players at second and short, and players in their primes at center and closer.

If the Mariners want to launch a rebuild, they’d be wise to acquire a bunch of talented first- or second-year players, as well as minor leaguers on the cusp of bursting onto the MLB scene. The Mets have several intriguing prospects at various positions in the upper levels of their system, as well as some very young talent on the major league roster.

What would happen if the Mets swapped Amed Rosario, Peter Alonso, Andres Gimenez and Justin Dunn for Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz and Mallex Smith?

Would the Mets win 90 games in 2019 but then feature $45M in dead weight in 2022, with no good young players on the roster?

And if so… would that be worth it?

How much would this trade help the Mets?

Segura, Cano, and Diaz each project to be worth about 2 wins above the players they’d be replacing on the Mets. Add another win or so for Smith. If the current Mets are an 83-win team, they would jump to a 90-win team with a single trade. That’s hard to do.

How much would this trade help the Mariners?

The Mariners would get two middle infielders, one slugging first baseman, and one hard-throwing pitcher. Rosario and Alonso are ready for the big leagues, with Dunn not far behind, and Gimenez an extra year away. They won’t all be good players, but maybe more than one pans out, and maybe there’s a star in there somewhere. This is exactly what a rebuilding team needs.

How much would this trade hurt the Mets?

I don’t think the Mets would miss the talent they’d give up. Dunn struggles with command, lacks a great build, and is viewed by some as a future reliever. Rosario’s hitting fundamentals are woeful, and he’s been surprisingly ineffective in the field for someone with such athletic grace. Gimenez looks to be good at everything, but maybe not good enough at hitting to be a real asset. Alonso will hit homers, but also be a whiff-prone first baseman, offering an eminently replaceable skill set.

The real cost I see is money. Even if the players the Mets lose will be barely average, they’ll be barely average for the minimum salary, allowing the Mets to spend elsewhere. As for the players the Mets get back, Segura will rapidly go from underpaid to overpaid as his range and offense decline with age, while Cano is already overpaid and may claim the crown for most overpaid by the time his contract ends.

How much would this trade hurt the Mariners?

Mallex Smith is young, cheap, and exciting, with room to grow. He’s exactly the sort of player a rebuilding team should keep (unless they’re planning a very long rebuild). Edwin Diaz is the type of dominant reliever that a contender might overpay for at the trade deadline, bringing back great prospects without moving Smith and Segura at the same time. Also, maybe the Mariners see the same limitations in the Mets’ players that I do.

What’s the verdict?

I would make this trade. It’s hard to put too high a price on getting exactly what you need to compete. Yes, this will ruin any chance of the Mets competing as a mid-payroll team, but I don’t see that happening anyway. Their prospects and young players just aren’t elite enough to do what Cleveland did. Now is a time for the Mets to make bold moves, crack open the wallets, and start winning. The Wilpons can plan to recoup those payroll costs in the form of ticket sales and playoff games.

And yes, to win in 2022 they’ll have to spend even more… and a business model of escalating costs can’t be sustained forever… but no MLB team stays great forever. Give me a solid boom before the next bust, and I’ll be happy.

I somewhat swam against the tide of public opinion and was in favor of Doug Melvin, especially after his post-interview press conference when he seemed to correctly identify every Met issue. He also earned extra points for almost fleecing Sandy Alderson back in (sigh) July of 2015, when he nearly acquired Wilmer Flores and Zack Wheeler for a washed-up Carlos Gomez. Tampa Bay’s Chaim Bloom was my next choice, as going all of the way back to the mid-90’s Expos teams I have long advocated the Mets hiring any one of the architects of that prospect-rich, shoestring budget team. That Expos franchise seemed to just be able to find gem after gem, didn’t they? The Rays are their spiritual heir, coming out of nowhere nearly year after year to put together an exciting and watchable team rostered by players you haven’t heard of before.

Look, none of us can say with any certainty today that this is a good hire or not. But on the surface, this is a move fraught with potholes. The biggest is Van Wagenen’s former occupation, complicated by his relationship with several key Met players. It’s kind of like having a consultation with an attorney on Tuesday, only to arrive in court on Thursday to find the self-same barrister working for the opposing side. Toss in those comments from Player’s Union head Tony Clark, and this has all of the makings of a disaster, both at the operational level and from a public relations standpoint.

The other concern is from the early reports of the Mets plans to keep the triumvirate of Omar Minaya, J.P. Ricciardi, and John Ricco in place. This appears to be a confusing co-mingling of power and responsibilities, a Machiavellian plot  probably hatched by Jeff Wilpon to keep all of his lieutenants at bay and at each other. Add the return of Mickey Callaway as manager (a move endorsed by Jeff) and one thing that is very clear  is that the team is not getting a strong man at the tiller.

One has to wonder was said to Van Wagenen to get him to leave his very lucrative position. I assume he has made enough money to be set for life, as it isn’t like he can go back to his old role if (or when) he flops here. There is the hope that he convinced the Wilpons that he is the guy to help them act more like a big-market team. Maybe he has some connections to some rising hotshot analysts and player-development types that he plans on bringing in. At age 44, he is certainly not “old school,” but he clearly lacks the experience his predecessor brought to the table—not that this is a bad thing.

We will see, I guess. And, with 45 days between now and the end of the winter meetings, we probably won’t have too long to wait. Meantime, this situation is best summed up by that sage Ned Flanders: As the tree said to the lumberjack, “I’m stumped.”

But a funny thing happened after the calendar flipped to July. The Mets started to play better. Slowly, almost imperceptively at first, several players began to turn it around. There were steps back to be sure, like that nightmare in DC, but they started to gain a bit of traction. Fast forward to this past week, when the suddenly dangerous Mets knocked the Dodgers out of first place, probably spoiled the Phillies’ chances of reaching the post season, and are creeping up on the equally disappointing Nationals for third place in the NL East. Not exactly baseball like it oughta be, but certainly an intriguing development.

I’m starting to push 60, but I still have quite a bit of “Fan Boy” in me about the Mets. On the flip side, I have been rooting for them since 1971, leaving me little more than just a little cynical about their future. So, what kind of dialog ensues when Dan the Fan Boy and Dan the Old Cynic join the same Mets chat room in some corner of my brain?

Fanboy: The Mets will let David Wright and Jose Reyes man the left side of the infield one more game together before the end of the season, and then hold a very nice retirement press conference for them early in the offseason.

Old Cynic: No chance. David Wright will continue to attempt his “one last try.” Jose will further tarnish his legacy by telling his agents he’s open to a minor league deal. Don’t count out the Mets taking him up on that offer.

Fanboy: Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil will combine to be the best 1-2 top of the batting order since the days of Dykstra and Backman. Defensively, they are the best keystone combo since Rey-O and Fonzie.

Old Cynic: It been a nice half a year for both players, but I need to see a few more good months of out McNeil in 2019 before I anoint him as the starting second baseman. Rosario alternated between looking really good and making some fundamentally unsound plays. Is that his youth, or the poor Mets player development system showing? The “best keystone combo since Rey-O and Fonzie” is more of an indictment against the Mets than an endorsement of Rosario and McNeil.

Fanboy: Zack Wheeler finally realized his potential. Between he, Jacob DeGrom and Noah Syndergaard, this is the best 1-2-3 rotation in baseball. And, if manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland can complete Steven Matz’ turnaround, we’ll have four aces.

Old Cynic: One (painful) word: Injuries.

Fanboy: Peter Alonso will supply the Mets with the kind of power they haven’t seen since Cespedes was in his prime. His righty bat will be bracketed by lefties Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto to form a left-right-left homegrown power trio in the middle of the order for the next few years. Put Todd Frazier in the 6-hole and they have a good lineup, one through six.

Old Cynic: It would have been nice to have seen Alonso get some at-bats in September. Plus, he hit about half of all those homeruns in the PCL, which is a notorious hitter’s league. Your 3-4-5-6 of the order will cool off the fans on humid nights with all that fanning. And, they’re just going to give up on Dom Smith? What happens to the beloved Wilmer? I can’t wait to hear about your plans for Jay Bruce.

Fanboy: The San Francisco Giants have Mark Melancon, an overpriced former closer that they don’t need. The Mets need a closer. The Giants have already cut bait with Andrew McCutchen and are losing Hunter Pence to Free Agency. They need outfield help. The Mets have Jay Bruce, who is making nearly as much as Melancon. The Mets don’t need Bruce anymore. The two teams should work out a trade for these contracts. We don’t need Melancon to close, except in emergencies.

Old Cynic: Yes, the Giants will need outfield help, but Bruce is absolute toast. They finally got rid of Pence, so now they’re going to sign up for two more years of poor production? They can just stash MM in the bullpen the way you want to, and go with Will Smith to close. By the way, who closes for the Mets in this scenario? Anthony Swarzak?

Fanboy: Drew Smith, Daniel Zamora, Gerson Bautista, Bobby Wahl, Tim Peterson, Eric Hanhold, Jamie Callahan, Tyler Bashlor, and Jacob Rhame can’t all be flops. Most of them had great minor league stats, and for the most part, they showed flashes in the bigs. They throw gas. If just two of ‘em come through…

Old Cynic: All of those names, except Wahl, are Sandy Alderson acquisitions. If we learned anything from his seven years as GM, it’s that he can’t build a bullpen to save his life. I’ll give you Jerry Blevins, but remember Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, DJ Carrasco, Victor Black, and Jose Valverde? Don’t forget Swarzak. Plus, we got most of those guys in trades when we dumped veteran salaries. How much value did these pitchers really have to their former teams?

Fanboy: Juan Lagares really looked sharp in the 30 games he played. He’s in the last year of his contract, so he will be very motivated to stay on the field, bringing a gold glove and some speed to the everyday lineup.

Old Cynic: You’ve heard of the definition of insanity, right?

Fanboy: Callaway has already stated that he wants Seth Lugo in the rotation. With the other four spots taken, it’s between Lugo and Jason Vargas. The Mets will just have to swallow hard and release Vargas, giving his spot to Lugo.

Old Cynic: The Mets will never cut bait with Vargas, a signing they never should have made in the first place. Plus, doesn’t Lugo have a tear in a ligament on his pitching arm somewhere?

Fanboy: The Mets should sign Yasmani Grandal to a three-year deal. They can front-load it and offer him opt outs after the first two years.

Old Cynic: Yeah, a $50 million-dollar deal with $45M “frontloaded” in 2019. Seriously though, Grandal is just about the only full-time and effective catcher on the market. A lot of better-run and more willing to spend teams will be in on him. Unless we are willing to way overpay, I can’t see any reason why he would want to come here. Plus, if they’re giving Juan Lagares another go, why wouldn’t they give Travis d’Arnaud another chance as well?

Fanboy: The Phillies faded down the stretch, Washington is a mess, and Atlanta had a bunch of players have career years. The NL East can be wide open next year.

Old Cynic: Atlanta is going to be a dynasty; the Phillies have plenty of young, talented players and the Nats are going to full reload mode for Life After Harper. Get used to 4^th place.

So, that’s what’s going on inside the Met portion of my brain these days. How about you, are you a fan boy (or girl) or an old(ish) cynic about the Mets next year?

Does the Mets’ 2018 season seem eerily familiar to you? Are you reminded of the beginning of the Alderson era, when the Mets failed to properly rebuild in the name of “maybe we can contend” every year? For those who’ve since managed to forget, this summed up the Mets from 2011-2013, and only the unexpected brilliance of rookies Jacob deGrom and Jeurys Familia carried the team closer to .500 in 2014.

Personally, when I look at the 2018 squad, I see a lot of 2012. Let’s indulge in a wistful reminiscence of that knuckleball-filled season, and see if it provides any takeaways for the Mets’ current roster.

The cast of characters

The Cy Young candidate

With all hopes of contention gone before the end of July, 2012 Mets fans had one reason to tune in every five days: the brilliance of R.A. Dickey. Some historic feats early in the season (back-to-back one-hitters in June!) put him on the map as one of the best stories of the year, and he charged into August and September pursuing 20 wins and a Cy Young award.

When he had his A+ knuckleball he was a strikeout machine, and when he didn’t, Dickey got by on guts and determination. Whenever he was in trouble, he seemed to find a way to dot the corner with a surprise fastball, or induce a chopper for a double play. R.A. seemed to single-handedly will the team to victory on the days he started; rarely has a Mets pitcher fielded his position with more gusto or run harder to first base than the 37-year-old journeyman with the thick beard.

Of course, all those wins weren’t really single-handed. The team still had to score a few runs, catch some deep fly balls, and close the door in the 8th and 9th. Sounds like a dream, doesn’t it, Jacob deGrom?

The blossoming #2 starter

Jon Niese had teased the Mets for years with various combinations of a nasty cutter, a nasty curve, and elite velocity for a lefty starter. In 2012, he improved his control and went on his first sustained run of excellence.

We can see some parallels in the Mets tenure of Zack Wheeler, though Zack’s 2018 turnaround has been far more dramatic.

The young catcher playing himself into a back-up role

Josh Thole and Kevin Plawecki were both supposed to hit for high enough averages to make up for their mediocre arms. Nope.

The slugging first baseman with contact issues

Back in 2012, most teams still valued a guy who could hit 30 homers and not do much else. Ike Davis was viewed as a probable cornerstone of the Mets’ lineup, despite his whiff rate. Now, in 2018, with such players often available in the free agent bargain bin, poor Peter Alonso can’t even get a call-up.

(In case this is news to anyone, Alonso struck out 77 times in 65 games for Las Vegas.)

The contact-hitting second baseman

It’s still early for Jeff McNeil, but he shows all the signs of becoming a Mets-era Daniel Murphy: great contact ability, occasional pop, few walks, not exactly a natural at second base. Hopefully McNeil can avoid the injury bug that bit the Mets’ last Murphy clone, T.J. Rivera.

The really, really young shortstop

In 2010, Ruben Tejada blew our minds by showing himself to be a capable MLB shortstop at the age of 20. Despite his lack of exceptional tools, he showed enough quickness, contact ability, and intelligence both in the field and at the plate, to raise hopes very high indeed. In 2012, Ruben hit .320 into mid-August while rating as an average defender at short. Terry Collins named him as the team’s cornerstone player to build around heading into the future.

From there it was all down hill.

Amed Rosario likewise impressed onlookers at an early age, though in a very different way, flashing tools in AAA rather than poise in MLB. Handed the Mets’ starting shortstop job at age 22, Rosario is still viewed by some as a future cornerstone, but his lackluster results are beginning to dim those hopes.

The future middle of the order hitter, or maybe not

Lucas Duda absolutely destroyed the minors in 2010 and 2011, but his early days in MLB were mixed. Showing the quickest bat and most natural power on the team, Duda alternated between great at bats and terrible ones. When hot, he was very selective, drawing walks and murdering the pitches he got to hit. When cold, he’d consistently wave through anything sinking below the knees, with little ability to read change-ups and breaking balls. He was also toast against lefties.

Michael Conforto has been much the same so far in his major league career, but with more prolonged slumps and more prolonged streaks. With a torrid first half of 2017, Conforto had everyone dreaming of a perennial All-Star hitter, but that hitter hasn’t shown himself once in 2018.

The toolsy outfielder on the rise

The 2012 Mets featured an athletic outfielder who had recently put together a very impressive minor league season, and instantly showed a decent combination of pop and patience in the majors. His name was Kirk Nieuwenhuis, and scouts were torn on whether he’d be a future regular or future fringe player.

Brandon Nimmo entered 2018 in much the same position. Like Kirk, he got off to a good start. Unlike Kirk, he’s kept it up. Look out, though. That whiff rate that proved to be Nieuwenhuis’s undoing? Nimmo’s is nearly identical.

The part-time masher

Scott Hairston was the 2012 Mets’ second-best hitter after David Wright. Scott never provided enough consistency or defensive value to be a regular, but he could certainly hit rockets when he was on.

While Hairston was a two-year free agent, his modern counterpart, Wilmer Flores, is one of the longest-tenured Mets and a fan favorite.

The giant pile of wasted money

Johan Santana gave the Mets one great season and a few good ones before his body betrayed him. Jason Bay fell apart very quickly after donning the orange and blue. In 2012, the pair contributed a combined -0.9 WAR for $40M.

Yoenis Cespedes and Jay Bruce have provided -0.1 WAR for their $40M salary in 2018.

2012’s legacy

After 2012, the Mets continued to sputter along until everything converged late in 2015. Of the 2012 players mentioned above, only Murphy and Duda were regulars, with Tejada and Niese useful in part-time roles. Dickey was traded for a serviceable catcher and a hard-throwing kid who took off in the Mets’ system. Santana and Bay were gone, with Nieuwenhuis a 25th man, on and off the roster.

Will history repeat itself?

Can you imagine this Mets team reaching the 2021 World Series?

• A red-hot Jeff McNeil, coming off a merely decent season, anchoring the playoff lineup from the #3 spot with lots of tough at bats and surprising pop.

• Michael Conforto batting 5th against righties, with enough easy whiffs to frustrate, but enough walks and homers to be useful.

• Amed Rosario as a part-time shortstop, allowing the Mets to switch and pinch-hit for another mediocre option at the position.

• Zack Wheeler bumped from the rotation due to health and consistency issues, but contributing out of the bullpen.

• Nimmo subbing in to hit the occasional triple or make the occasional diving catch.

• Bruce and Cespedes a distant memory.

• Some emerging ace and catcher stepping into the spotlight after being acquired for deGrom in 2018.

That team is still missing most of the key components that would make it a winner. However, way back in 2012, we didn’t see deGrom, Familia, and Cespedes on the horizon either.

Now, if only we had a young Matt Harvey bursting onto the scene and a David Wright still playing like a star when healthy…

Links to previous editions: 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017

The story so far…

The Mets breathed hope into a long-suffering fan base with their late charge in 2015, a World Series run that had pundits questioning whether the 2016 Mets rotation would be among the best ever. Did the Nationals even have a realistic shot at the team that had so thoroughly pummeled them in the previous year’s pennant race?

Then Matt Harvey fell apart, Steven Matz got hurt, Zack Wheeler endured setbacks, and only a clutch rally by plans C, D, E and F propelled the Mets to the 2016 wild card game, where they unfortunately got Bumgarnered.

Coming into 2017, most expectations of Met dominance were gone, but many still expected the Mets to be one of the better teams in the game and not too far behind the Nats. Their young aces were expected to rebound, at least somewhat, and many prognosticators foresaw better contributions from Lucas Duda (injured in 2016), Michael Conforto (awful in 2016), or Travis d’Arnaud (injured and awful in 2016). Yoenis Cespedes was expected to contribute more in the field and on the bases, having recovered from the leg injuries he played through in 2016.

Most of those hopes didn’t survive April.

Duda and Conforto did improve, but the pitching completely fell apart in 2017, en route to the second-worst ERA in franchise history.

The Mets’ pitching staffs of 2015-2016 did not walk people. They all threw strikes, from the dominators like Jacob deGrom to the fringe guys like Sean Gilmartin. In 2016, the Mets issued 439 free passes, best in the National League.

In 2017, that number jumped to 593, the third worst total in the N.L.

I have heard no theories as to why this happened, so here’s mine: it was the departure of Bartolo Colon. With his unimpressive velocity and physique, Colon spent 2014-2016 relentlessly throwing strike after strike, never perturbed when a hitter would square one up. That confidence had to inspire his young, chiseled, rocket-armed teammates, didn’t it? Or at least make them ashamed to nibble?

Alas, the Mets let Bart sign with the Braves for 2017, and that didn’t end well for anyone — not for the Mets’ suddenly-skittish pitchers, nor for Bartolo in the Braves’ new launching pad stadium.

Bad pitching wasn’t the 2017 Mets’ only major problem, though. The infield defense was awful, by far the worst in baseball according to the Defensive Runs Saved metric. The Mets’ lack of speed meant they couldn’t manufacture runs, and often relied solely on the homerun. Many of the team’s injury-prone players got injured again, leading players and management alike to lament the season’s run of bad luck.

By early June, the Mets seemed out of the hunt, with the Nationals well on their way to winning 97 games (despite major injuries of their own). By July, the Mets were in full-on sell mode, waving goodbye to Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, Addison Reed, Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson, in exchange for a big bag of nothing. I mean relief prospects. No, wait, I already said that.

After the trade deadline, the Mets went 22-37; the top prospects brought up to provide excitement and improvement did neither; and reports surfaced of “the inmates running the asylum” and the players being “all miserable”.

After concluding their 70-92 season, the Mets said goodbye to longtime manager Terry Collins, bringing on first-time skipper Mickey Callaway. Callaway and new pitching coach Dave Eiland immediately gushed about the talented arms in the Mets rotation, continuing the long-running story that this is a team built on starting pitching.

What now?

A lot went wrong in 2017. A few things also went right. Let’s give it all a thorough look-over, and see if we can make sense of what it means for 2018.

Stock Up, Stock Down

Catcher

Travis d’Arnaud – stock: unchanged
2017 was largely an awful year for d’Arnaud. Blessed with better health than in past seasons, he hit and threw so poorly in the early going that when the Mets really needed a win, scrap-heap pickup Rene Rivera took the field. Coming off a 2016 season in which he rated as below replacement level, Travis did little to raise his stock in 2017, unless you find meaning in a September power surge after the Mets were far removed from contention. Bringing d’Arnaud back in 2018 (while watching the A’s sign Jonathan Lucroy for $6.5M) is a big gamble on a playoff-hopeful team.

Kevin Plawecki – stock: up
Plawecki continued to hit in AAA, and finally translated that success to MLB in his second 2017 call-up. His weak arm and lack of pop limit his ceiling, but he showed enough contact and on-base ability to suggest that he can be an average back-up catcher at least.

First Base

Adrian Gonzalez – stock: down
Lucas Duda was a pleasant surprise in 2017, showing no ill effects from the back injury that kept him out for most of 2016. In 2018, the Mets are betting on another back injury victim, but one who’s five years older and looked done when he did play last year. After the Dodgers traded Gonzalez and the Braves released him, A-Gon did nothing in spring training with the Mets to indicate that he’s back to his old self.

Dominic Smith – stock: down
With a good 2017 MLB cameo, Smith would have staked his claim to the Mets’ first base job. Even without that, he might have seized the position with a spectacular spring training in 2018. Sadly, Dom hit under .200 with no range in 2017, and injured himself after one at bat this spring. On the plus side, he got in much better shape this offseason, and his 2017 cameo did include a few impressive homeruns.

Wilmer Flores – stock: up
Wilmer didn’t destroy lefties in 2017 the way he did in 2016, but he began punishing mistakes from righties with more consistency than ever before. Something must have improved in his stance or stride, because he fell over the plate much less often than in the past. He also stayed relatively healthy until fouling a ball off his face on September 2. Overall, he looked more and more like a truly dangerous part-time power bat. His awful fielding and complete lack of patience failed to improve, though, leaving an everyday role unlikely.

Second Base

Asdrubal Cabrera – stock: unchanged
Of course Cabrera didn’t replicate his clutch, power-packed 2016, but I doubt many expected him to. In 2017, he showed he could play an excellent third base (after Reyes failed at the position), but now Asdrubal is being moved to second, where his lack of range will again be a major problem. At least he makes all the plays on balls hit right to him, knows what he’s doing around the bag, and is a roughly average hitter in most respects. He represents a definite drop-off from Neil Walker at the plate, but offers less risk in the fielding and injury departments.

Jose Reyes – stock: unchanged
In 2017, Reyes was terrible at the plate in the first half and great in the second half. He showed insufficient range at shortstop, but still looked the part, with his agility and strong arm. I’m not sure if he deserves to take playing time away from the Mets’ other infielders, but he’s an excellent insurance policy. T.J. Rivera might be a more consistent hitter, but Reyes’ multi-faceted game probably makes him the better choice as the team’s primary utility infielder.

Third Base

Todd Frazier – stock: up
For most of his career, Frazier’s been the sort of player who’s currently a dime a dozen in the free agent bin: a high-strikeout corner guy with power and a low batting average. Todd has two things going for him beyond that, though: he’s a quality defender at third base, and last year he started drawing a lot of walks. We may be looking at a Lucas Duda who can man the hot corner.

David Wright – stock: unchanged
After 2016, it didn’t look like David would make it back, and he hasn’t. Although he has yet to officially retire, it would shock no one if that news arrived tomorrow.

Shortstop

Amed Rosario – stock: unchanged
How do you evaluate a prospect who some scouts called the best in the sport? Is he a disappointment because he didn’t do anything special after his call-up, or is he right on schedule because he’s managed to stick in MLB at age 22? In 2017, Rosario displayed more power and speed than many expected, but his game also showed some major holes. His long swing couldn’t catch up to good fastballs, he couldn’t distinguish a ball from a strike at all, and although he got his glove on a decent number of ground balls, he didn’t convert more than an average number into outs. If the Mets had a useful AAA hitting environment, I’d want Rosario back there honing his craft. As Las Vegas doesn’t qualify, however, I guess we’ll see how Amed develops in the New York spotlight. It seems unlikely that he can provide average offense in 2018, but if his defense is enough of an upgrade over the ineffective 2017 corps, we could be talking about a wash, or even a slight improvement, at the shortstop position.

Left Field

Yoenis Cespedes – stock: down
One of the most disappointing developments of 2017 was the play of Cespedes. His legs were never right, leaving him a liability in the field and on the bases, and there were a few moments where he literally stood still to watch a ball fall in for a hit and then slowly walked over to pick it up. At the plate, he hit some mammoth homeruns in blowouts, but was otherwise an easy out, especially in the clutch. An .892 OPS looks great, but a 0.4 Win Probability Added figure is incredibly poor. Yoenis didn’t wave through the high pitch as much as in the past, but he consistently fished for balls in the dirt and sliders in the opposite batter’s box. Cespedes did get red hot toward the end of August, but his legs gave out for good shortly thereafter. All this from the man who had wowed us with his offseason workouts and created MVP buzz in spring training. Hopefully 2017 was an aberration. The Mets still need Cespedes, now 32, to anchor their lineup and be at least average in left field.

Center Field

Michael Conforto – stock: up
From a hitter who ended 2016 with his MLB future in doubt, the Mets could not have expected anything more than Conforto’s .279/.384/.555 slash line in 2017. Michael did the majority of his damage early in the season, but he also proved for the first time that he could battle out of a slump. Even when not red-hot, he proved capable of hitting the ball out of the park, and he continued to be aggressive in the field and to make the most of his limited speed on the bases. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he suffered a torn shoulder capsule, the sort of injury that ends hitters’ careers, and that he can’t play an adequate center field, where the Mets are planning to shoehorn him in. Here’s hoping that Conforto makes a miraculous recovery, and that saner heads eventually prevail and give him a home in right field.

Juan Lagares – stock: unchanged
Lagares basically repeated his 2016 in 2017. He batted irregularly and never found a groove, he missed a good chunk of time due to injury, and he remained one of the better defensive outfielders in the game.

Brandon Nimmo – stock: up
After missing time in July with a collapsed lung, Nimmo saw his playing time increase through August, and he carried a .400 OBP into the season’s final fortnight. Batting everywhere in the lineup, he began to look like a future table-setter, seeing 4.41 pitches per plate appearance, not far behind MLB leaders Curtis Granderson and Matt Carpenter. In the field, Nimmo showed a weak arm, but enough range to be solid in a corner and possibly passable as a part-timer in center. FanGraphs’ win projections like the Mets’ chances better with Conforto in right and a Lagares/Nimmo platoon in center, as opposed to Bruce in right and Conforto in center.

Right Field

Jay Bruce – stock: unchanged
After the rest of MLB showed no interest in Bruce at $13 million for one year, the Mets shipped him away for nothing at the 2017 trade deadline… and then brought him back at $13 million per year, for three years. Although I can’t understand what Bruce is doing back on this team, I do appreciate what he gave the Mets in 2017: a good number of homeruns, solid clutch hitting, and several excellent catches at the edge of his limited range. Of those, I expect the homeruns to continue. It’s also possible that Bruce will help stabilize the clubhouse and team culture. Apparently things got ugly in 2017 after he, Granderson and Walker were traded away.

Starting Pitcher

Noah Syndergaard – stock: down
In 2018, Thor again begins a season with arguably the most impressive stuff in baseball. Unfortunately, the only thing he did with it in 2017 was to prove the doubters right. Which doubters? The doubters who worried that a young starting pitcher throwing 100 mph was going to hurt himself. The sky remains the limit for Noah, but only if a bone spur and a torn lat aren’t the beginning of the end.

Jacob deGrom – stock: unchanged
In 2017, deGrom proved that he could take the ball. Without a stomach ailment costing him his last start of the year, he most likely would have led the National League in innings pitched! The downside of that fortitude was diminishing effectiveness, as Jacob posted a 4.50 ERA over his last 8 starts, and looked gassed for much of August. He also got away from his trademark imperturbable demeanor on the mound, letting all the defensive ineptitude behind him get to him at times. This was the first time since his rookie year when deGrom wasn’t involved in a pennant race, so that may have contributed to a decrease in focus. His homerun rate was alarming at 1.3 per game, but the strikeout rate was spectacular at 10.7. Add it all up, and he still looks like a second-tier ace.

Jason Vargas – stock: up
Compared to all the potential the Mets’ rotation boasted in 2017, a low-upside guy like Vargas is an underwhelming replacement to take into 2018. He’s safer, and quite possibly better, than the current alternatives on the roster, but he’s nowhere near the pitcher the Mets hoped they had in Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, or possibly even Gsellman. Whether those hopes were ever realistic is another matter. If nothing else, Vargas adds valuable stability and depth.

Matt Harvey – stock: down
What? Removing a rib didn’t fix Harvey’s command, mental issues on the mound, and devotion to his teammates? Shocking. In 2017, Matt continued his pitching patterns from 2016, falling apart with men on base or when facing hitters a second or third time. He also added in a new wrinkle: lots of walks. The resulting 6.70 ERA was the worst ever for a Met with that many innings (92). Harvey also got suspended for not showing up to the park one day, embroiled himself in controversy over a poorly-managed moved-up start, and missed all of July and August with shoulder weakness. After every awful outing, he tried to tell the media how he felt he was making progress, but toward the end of the season he admitted that 2017 was just an awful year and he was looking forward to it being over. This spring, his command has looked better, but he’s shown no hint of the stuff that made him the pitcher he was in 2012-2015.

Steven Matz – stock: way down
Matz was never healthy in 2017. He’s denied that he was pressured into pitching hurt, and has claimed that he simply tried too hard to pitch through pain, but the truth came out earlier, that the team was fed up with his hard-to-prove ailments. In the end, Matz threw 66 innings with a 6.08 ERA. My only hope for him at this point is that the new pitching gurus on the team can change his damaging delivery. He spoke in spring training about their attempts to prevent his arm from being “late”, so perhaps that’s a good sign. Like Harvey, he’s an enormous risk as a rotation piece.

Zack Wheeler – stock: down
After missing 2015 with elbow surgery and missing 2016 with failed attempts to return from that elbow surgery, Wheeler missed half of 2017 with a stress reaction in his shoulder. When he did take the mound, he had very little idea where the ball was going, and he continued his high pitch-count / short-outing ways from before his surgery. The inconsistent breaking balls also returned, as well as the fastball that occasionally looked so nasty as to make the kid hard to give up on. That 5.21 ERA doesn’t lie, though. Wheeler starts 2018 in the minors, behind Vargas, Harvey, Matz, Lugo, and maybe more.

Seth Lugo – stock: unchanged
Injuries to other players afforded Lugo 18 major league starts in 2017. When he wasn’t saving his best pitches (especially his curve) for a “later” that never came, he routinely pitched brilliantly for 5 innings, until getting destroyed for a 13.50 ERA in the 6th. He missed significant time due to a partially torn elbow ligament, originally injured while nearly pitching Puerto Rico to the World Baseball Classic title in March. One can see causes for optimism in his moving fastball, tight-spinning curveball, low walk rate, and poise on the big stage, but at age 28 his future role remains unclear.

Robert Gsellman – stock: down
In 2017, Gsellman did none of the things that made him successful in 2016. He didn’t locate, and his sinker tended to have lazy run rather than late sink. At least he maintained his velocity, and his arm stayed healthy (though not his hamstring), and he still has youth on his side.

Bullpen

Jeurys Familia – stock: down
Familia’s 2017 season began with domestic violence issues, overuse, blood clots, and emergency surgery. When he returned, he was inconsistent, reminding us of his worst days from 2014 and 2016, and not his domination from 2015. There’s no reason to think his elite velocity and elite sinker have left him, though, so he remains a nice bullpen weapon.

Anthony Swarzak – stock: down
He might turn out to be great, but as a replacement for Addison Reed, he has to be seen as a big step down. Reed was fantastic for the Mets in both 2016 and 2017, and as the best reliever available at the 2017 trade deadline, I don’t know why he brought back nothing in return, as opposed to the mammoth hauls teams gave up for top relievers in 2016. Reed’s success was based on durability, a deceptive motion, and limiting free passes. Swarzak has been mostly ineffective or injured in his career, but did post a ton of strikeouts in 2017.

Jerry Blevins – stock: unchanged
Blevins was effective all year, except when facing too many righties or throwing too many fastballs. Wait, did I write that last year? Huh. I have little to add, except that he re-emphasized his curveball in 2017, throwing it much more to lefties, to the extent that a few of them actually timed it and hit it hard. Overall, though, he remained death to portsiders, allowing them one extra-base hit all year (a double), for a .205 SLG. Righties, on the other hand, slugged .545 off him.

A.J. Ramos – stock: up
Ramos came over late in 2017 and showed why the Marlins tired of him as their closer: too many walks. He also remained durable and very tough to hit. He constitutes an improvement over what Hansel Robles offered coming into 2017.

Paul Sewald and Jacob Rhame – stock: unchanged
Sewald went from a complete unknown to dominating righties in 2017, though his command went downhill dramatically with frequent use as the season wore on. Rhame appears to be a one-pitch pitcher who the Dodgers didn’t mind giving up when the Mets went to dump Curtis Granderson’s salary. The Mets decided to keep Rhame and others on the 40-man roster over Chasen Bradford, whose sinker made him arguably the team’s most reliable reliever late in 2017. Still, the current bullpen depth (Sewald, Rhame, Matt Purke, Jamie Callahan) probably isn’t any worse than what the Mets brought into 2017 (Fernando Salas, Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker, Rafael Montero).

Minor leaguers of note

They’re all in the majors now, aren’t they? Well, except for Smith and Gavin Cecchini, who were in the majors, and now they’re in AAA trying to fight their way back.

The Mets are one of three or four teams with zero prospects featured in most experts’ Top 100 lists. Hopefully 2018 will turn some of the farm system’s youngest members into players worth keeping on eye on, but as of now we’re still waiting.

Summing it up

Changes since a year ago

Stock way down: Steven Matz.

Stock down: Most of the rotation and rotation depth (Harvey, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Gsellman), the back end of the bullpen (Familia, replacing Reed with Swarzak), first base (Smith, A-Gon replacing Duda), the presumed 2017 MVP candidate (Cespedes).

Stock unchanged: Jacob deGrom, Jerry Blevins, Seth Lugo, the bullpen depth (Sewald, Rhame), Jay Bruce, and the mediocrity up the middle (d’Arnaud, Cabrera, Reyes, Lagares; Rosario learning on the job).

Stock up: Michael Conforto; part-timers Flores, Plawecki and Nimmo; and new additions Frazier, Vargas and Ramos.

Stock way up: Conforto would have qualified if not for his shoulder injury.

Multi-Year Trends

Harvey, Matz and Wheeler have continued to plunge, while Nimmo and Flores each improved for the second straight year. Conforto got back on track after a bad 2016, while Syndergaard, Rosario and Gsellman all followed huge 2016 leaps with various sorts of 2017 problems. Lagares and Reyes continued to be who they’ve been for a while now.

What it all means

The Mets entered 2017 as a postseason hopeful, well behind the Nationals, but in the thick of the wild card contenders.

Now, after a grueling 92-loss season, numerous departures and acquisitions, and dramatic changes to the coaching staff, the Mets enter 2018… as a postseason hopeful, well behind the Nationals, but in the thick of the wild card contenders.

After last season’s injuries and failures and departures, the Mets, overall, aren’t any worse off. After spending nearly $50 million on 2018 free agent contracts, they aren’t any better off, either.

If the Mets aren’t better or worse than they were entering 2017, what exactly has changed? Well, hopefully, they’re more informed. I see several signs that this might be the case. As much as the new coaching staff talked up the hard-throwing kids, they still wanted soft-tossing Jason Vargas on the team, and they chose Lugo’s results (he’s in the rotation to start the season) over Wheeler’s velocity and hype (he’s headed for AAA). New skipper Callaway has spoken of a closer committee, of resting players more regularly, and of pulling most starters before the third time through the opponent’s batting order. He’s acknowledged that Matz and Syndergaard present certain injury risks, and that Harvey isn’t Batman.

General manager Sandy Alderson may not have acquired any great players with all that Wilpon money he spent, but he certainly did acquire a lot of injury insurance. The 2018 Mets may not be any better than “pretty good”, but they should be able to take their share of hits and still be “pretty good”.

As a die-hard Mets fan who’s gritted my teeth through much of the last 11 years, this 2018 team is not what I’ve been hoping for… but it should be interesting.

So, after a slow start to the offseason, the Mets took advantage of an extremely sluggish free agent market and landed several new players. They also brought back some familiar faces. This makeover has no doubt helped ticket sales a bit and at least temporarily, restored a little faith in the franchise’s ability to get itself back into the winner’s circle.

I sure hope so (more on that later), but the Mets attempt to return to glory via an infusion of new talent hasn’t worked out so well in the past. Here are three examples. For the sake of clarity the seasons before and immediately after the busy offseason will serve as the timeline:

1974-1975:

Transactions: Traded pitcher Ray Sadecki for Joe Torre, purchased the contract of Dave Kingman, swapped back-up catcher Duffy Dyer for outfielder Gene Clines; and most significantly, moved 1973’s folk hero Tug McGraw to Philadelphia for Centerfielder Del Unser.

Background and Results: The Mets 1974 season was everything their stunning run to the 1973 World Series was not. Most telling was their ineffective offense, as the team collectively slashed 235/311/329, good for 11^th, 11^th and 12^th respectively, in the then 12-team National League. A mysterious shoulder injury threatened McGraw’s career (or so the Mets thought), and they viewed getting Unser from Philly in return as a great coup. McGraw would pitch for ten seasons as a Phillie, and was a key part in their late-70’s revival and eventual 1980 championship. Meantime, Unser was gone by the middle of the 1976 season. The Mets got even less mileage out of Clines, who lasted only a year, while Dyer played for five years in Pittsburgh. Torre was far past his prime by 1975. Kingman hit some of the longest home runs ever hit by a Mets player, but he was plagued by a low OBP and he couldn’t field worth a lick. He also had a rep as a bad guy.

The Verdict:  of all the re-boots, this was the most successful, although “success” is a relative term. The 1975 Mets went 82-80, well out of contention for the NL East title. They actually did slightly better in 1976, winning 86 games. The Mets then hit the wall in 1977 and wouldn’t be heard from again for seven years.

1991-1992:

Transactions: Traded three players, including former minor league wunderkind Gregg Jefferies to Kansas City for ace Bret Saberhagen. Signed FA’s Bobby Bonilla, Eddie Murray and Willie Randolph. They also traded useful PH Mark Carreon to Detroit for lefty Paul Gibson.

Background and Results: The 1991 season had been disastrous for the Mets, as it was the franchise’s first losing year in nearly a decade. So, they headed towards 1992 with a new manager, Jeff Torborg, a new GM named Al Harazin and new slogan, “Hard Ball is Back.” Instead, they played hardly ball. Saberhagen was shelved for most of ’92 with a finger injury. Randolph was totally washed up. Murray, who came with a rep for sullenness, was exactly that. Bonilla was a train wreck, both on and off the field. The 72-90 1992 season was an embarrassment for the franchise, followed the next year by a 100+ loss season and several humiliating off-the-field incidents that held the team up to national ridicule.  Harazin and Torborg didn’t complete the 1993 season and everybody from this do-over was gone by July of 1995, as they took warm bodies in exchange for Sabes and Bonilla. A re-boot of the re-boot, if you will.

The Verdict: Epic Fail. Another stretch in the wilderness ensued. Fortunately this one was shorter the  post-77 exile, and by 1997 the team was rising from the ashes and pointing in the right direction again. Until…

2001-2002:

Transactions: Steve Phillips traded failed outfield prospect Alex Escobar and others to Cleveland for Roberto Alomar. Super Steve also engineered a three-team swap with Milwaukee and Colorado that netted the Mets Jeromy Burnitz and Jeff D’Amico. He traded free agent flop Kevin Appier to the then-Anahiem Angels for Mo Vaughn. He traded for LHSP Shawn Estes. He signed Free Agents David Weathers and Roger Cedeno, and picked up Endy Chavez about a half dozen times, only to move him out each time (Endy began the year in the Expos system). He also acquired a then little known rookie outfielder named Jason Bay, who would be shipped to San Diego that summer.

Background and Results: After a nice run from 1997 to 2000, the Mets fortunes faded quickly after clinching the 2000 National League pennant. They lost the World Series in five games to the Yankees and then missed out on both Ichiro and A-Rod during the winter. Next, they failed to reach the playoffs in 2001. So Phillips got busy. I need to remember 2002 anytime I get nostalgic for the gun-slinging Phillips.  Cedeno, Vaughn, Alomar and Burnitz were complete flops. D’Amico, despite his impressive size, couldn’t find the plate and had zero stuff. Estes is most famous for missing Roger Clemens when he intentionally tried to hit him during an interleague game at Shea.  Weathers became an unnecessary piece.  The two best players Phillips laid his hands on that offseason were Bay and Chavez, and he moved both of them, essentially for nothing.

The Verdict: Another fail. Phillips was shown the door before the 2003 season ended. His successor, the hapless Jim Duquette, moved a few of Phillips’ acquisitions for warm bodies. Unfortunately Duquette would soon make his own blunders, paving the way for Omar Minaya’s star-crossed tenure as Mets GM.

The Present:

The Mets moved Josh Smoker to Pittsburgh for a minor league LHRP. They resigned Jose Reyes. They signed Jay Bruce, who they had traded last August. They grabbed veteran 1B Adrian Gonzalez (whom they could have had for Armando Benitez back during Duquette’s great sell-off of Phillips’ assets) while having Atlanta pick up almost his entire salary. They signed 3B Todd Frazier, LHSP Jason Vargas and RHRP Anthony Swarzak.

So, will any of these moves help? I think Frazier and Bruce, given their recent history in New York, will. Reyes too. For different reasons, both Vargas and Swarzak are question marks. Gonzo reminds me of Torre, circa 1975.

The 1975-76 Mets played as well as they did because of the team’s cadre of starting pitchers. Kingman aside, the rest of the team’s acquisitions played relatively minor roles. In 2018, Frazier and Bruce are definitely being counted on, but like their 1974 antecedents, the 2018 Mets fortunes will rise or fall on the ability of their pitching staff. This means Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard reaching at least 175 effective innings. Oh, and Yoenis Cespedes needs to be able to play in at least 135 games, if not more.

Should that happen, the rest of the pieces should fall into place and they could be on pace for an 86-76 season, with a chance to add a few players in July and push towards 90 wins. Otherwise, it’s back to the drawing board–or whatever electronic marvel has made that old standby obsolete.

We know you’ve thought it.

Heck, you may have even said it — in a, “We all know I don’t really mean it,” sort of way, with maybe just a hint of, “Or do I?”

Well, the time for humility has passed. Go ahead. Say it loudly and wholeheartedly:
 

“I’d make a better Mets GM than this guy!”
 

Right at this moment, it’s true. “This guy” is Sandy Alderson, and the media just informed us that he spent a significant portion of the Mets’ remaining player budget on a player who:

• Is at an age where players generally stay the same or get worse.
• Has never gotten on base much.
• Has always struck out a ton.
• Has always been a streaky hitter.
• Has spent most of the past half-decade as a poor defensive right fielder.
• Has just started learning how to play first base, so isn’t adept there either.
• Has generally been an easy out against left-handed pitchers.
• Is slow, a negative on the bases.
• Hits a lot of fly balls, a good number of which leave the park given favorable conditions.

There is exactly one situation in which you sign such a player to a three-year deal for $13M per year:

• All the comparable player options — who, given how MLB currently values the above skill set, could have been had on one-year deals or for less money — are already gone.
• You don’t need to save money for other needs.
• You’re currently looking at an absolute black hole in right field or first base.

How many of these required conditions are true for the Mets? Zero.

I enjoy rooting for Jay Bruce. He seems like a nice guy and a hard worker. But with a limited budget, no second baseman, a shallow bullpen, and only two reliable starting pitchers on the roster, he is possibly the worst investment I can imagine for this team at this moment.

So pat yourselves on the backs, all you Mets fans who think you’d be a better GM than the guy we’ve actually got! Right now, you’re officially correct.

Forget for a moment that the Mets organization plans to field a .500 club while trying to inspire fans with upside and potential, much as they’ve done for most of the last seven years. Pretend instead that the Mets have a choice between the two options faced by teams who are actually trying to win:

1. Look up at the Nationals, look down at the Mets roster, judge the gap too large to breach, and plan for the future.
2. Maximize the Mets’ current assets and go all-in for 2018.

Maybe Option A is the smarter long-term move. Dangle Jacob deGrom for a boatload of prospects, tank for a few years to collect top draft picks, and aim for a championship when Amed Rosario is in his prime in 2023.

So, hey, Mets fans, how many of you are on board with that plan? After a decade of choke jobs, injuries, mediocrity, penury and embarrassment, punctuated by a few months of catching lightning in a bottle, are you on board to wait another several years for a contender with a decent shot to win it all?

Me neither.

So let’s talk about Option B. Before Sandy Alderson has polished his February speeches about how the market didn’t provide the proper opportunities and blah blah blah, let’s see if we can imagine a way to get from where the Mets are now to the promised land this October.

Spend, but spend wisely

It’s easy for fans to ask their team to spend more money for more wins. I’d rather not go so far in that direction, though, that we’re paying $100 million in 2020 to some combination of players who can’t take the field (Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez) or are below-average (Jay Bruce, Mike Moustakas).

I want the Wilpons to spend, but I also want them to get bang for every buck, so we fans can dream of contending every year without needing to spend like the Yankees and Dodgers (which simply isn’t going to happen). For that reason, I’m going to rule out many players who could really help the Mets in 2018, because I don’t think they’ll be remotely worth what they’d cost. To me, that’s the above players, plus Eric Hosmer, along with anyone who generates an actual bidding war among Jake Arrieta, Yu Darvish, Wade Davis, Addison Reed, and Lorenzo Cain.

My guess is that the Mets’ biggest moves should be trades, leaving free agency to round out the roster with an R.A. Dickey here or a Jarrod Dyson there.

Step 1: Pay for Christian Yelich

The Marlins are looking for immediate payroll relief, and that means finding a taker for Martin Prado. They’re also looking to avoid the appearance of a complete sell-off, which means they need both hot prospects and MLB-ready talent. Whoever can fill all these needs will become the leading candidate for the Marlins’ most coveted remaining talents, Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto.

This is something the Mets can achieve for little more than short-term money. Here’s how:

Trade Dominic Smith, Asdrubal Cabrera, Justin Dunn, Travis d’Arnaud and cash to Miami for Prado, Yelich and Realmuto.

Dunn is a first-round draft pick with elite velocity. Smith is another first-round pick who’s received plenty of media hype, flashed great potential, and has the likable underdog backstory that fits perfectly on a rebuilding team. Cabrera can play wherever the Marlins need him in the infield, with the Mets sending cash to offset his salary. D’Arnaud will replace Realmuto behind he plate, bringing an enticing history of top-prospect status and power potential. It’s not a steal for Miami, but it’s credible, and gets them the payroll relief they want.

Where would this leave the Mets?

Realmuto’s poor blocking and framing skills make him far from perfect, but gaining 50+ points of OBP from the catcher spot is hard to overrate.

Yelich is either a mediocre center fielder or a gold glove corner guy. He’s durable and a good baserunner. He hasn’t yet put it all together at the plate with any consistency, but he’s flashed batting champion potential and it’s not impossible to dream of upside at age 26.

Prado suffered from hamstring problems early in 2017 and then had knee surgery in late July. Having just turned 34, he has to be considered a health risk. Before that, however, he was a player who would have fit perfectly on the Mets: a reliable, clutch, shift-beating contact hitter who rated as a stellar defender at third base.

Realmuto and Yelich will be paid much less than they’re worth through 2022, while Prado will be paid a bit more than he’s worth through 2019. The Mets’ payroll will jump in the short term, but they’ll actually be in an improved wins-per-dollar position going forward.

As for losing Smith and Dunn, I don’t expect to miss a first base-only prospect and a pitcher who’s never shown much command or control.

Step 2: Pay for Joey Votto

With Smith gone, the Mets could probably find a cheap and productive first base bat out there in free agency. A reunion with Lucas Duda shouldn’t break any banks. At the same time, thanks to the Marlins haul, this team might be one big piece away from a 90-win squad on paper, poised to lead the wild card race and pounce on any opportunity for the N.L. East crown. So now would be the perfect time to shell out for that MVP-caliber bat.

We all know that the Wilpons care about the financial bottom line. One look at Votto’s price tag will have them shaking their heads, “No way.” But then they’ll have this to consider:

Joey Votto has won an MVP award, and he almost won another one last year. His name’s been on the leaderboards every day for the last decade. Barring a big bounceback by Miguel Cabrera, Joey probably holds the title of “best hitter in the game”. With Albert Pujols, Cabrera, and many other recent stars falling apart in their early 30s, Votto is arguably getting better (career-low K rate in 2017). Basically, he’s the kind of player fans pay to see.

Beyond that, if Votto could put the Mets into the playoffs, and help them make a deep run, that would equate to an absolute financial bonanza. Elevating the Mets from a 79-win team to an 84-win team may not mean much in the revenue department, but jumping from an 86-win fringe contender to a 91-win elite team could make a world of difference.

A few years back, the Reds were trying to win with Votto, and Votto was expressing his faith and patience. But now the Reds have traded Todd Frazier, said goodbye to Zack Cozart, are shopping Billy Hamilton, and appear to be nearly an entire pitching staff away from contention. Votto is 34 years old and I imagine it’d be hard for him to turn down a chance to play with a contender. This is a perfect time for him to jump ship, and for the Reds to rid themselves of that enormous contract.

I don’t know if any other teams in baseball are looking to pay a guy $25M per year through age 39, so I doubt the Mets will have to beat any prospect packages. Just pay the whole contract and the Reds should be happy with some toolsy A-ball guys in exchange.

Unlike the Marlins deal, this one is a long-term financial gamble. I have exactly two ways to justify it:

1. I don’t think Joey Votto will ever stop hitting. He will probably get injured more often as he ages, but his incredible eye is a tool that has kept many hitters productive very late into their careers. The man’s career OBP is .428. That’s not “good”, that’s once-in-a-generation special.
    
2. $25M in 2023 isn’t what $25M was in 2015. In 2023, that might be #3 starter money.

How much would all this help?

FanGraphs currently forecasts the 2018 Mets to win 83 games. Smith, Cabrera, d’Arnaud, Juan Lagares and Brandon Nimmo account for 5.6 WAR in that appraisal. Their replacements — Votto, Prado, Realmuto and Yelich — project for 12.5. That would presumably make the Mets a 90-win team.

Subjectively, I think FanGraphs underestimates that 7-win difference. The FanGraphs projections are bullish on d’Arnaud’s health, Cabrera’s performance, and Nimmo’s ability to play center field. At the same time, they don’t expect Prado or Yelich to approach their 2015-2016 levels, and they expect Votto to begin to decline. Maybe that 7-win difference is a good guess, but a difference of 10 wins or more wouldn’t surprise me at all.

However you assess the players involved, these moves would dramatically increase the odds of the Mets playing in the N.L. Division Series. They would also dramatically increase my enthusiasm for the team, and I can’t imagine I’d be alone.

Now, if only I knew how much revenue an NLDS appearance was worth…

Is everyone enjoying the high-stakes poker game of the major league baseball offseason? Are you thrilled to be watching different front office strategies reveal themselves?

I’ve been watching, but I can’t say that I’m thrilled or filled with joy. The two trends that I’ve recognized so far are very familiar to Mets fans:

• Some teams target players who can provide great bang for their buck, and move on them aggressively.
• Sandy Alderson’s Mets wait to see how the market develops, by which point all the shrewd gets are gone.

I’m not talking about Shohei Otani, who I see as an electric arm with severe blowout potential who’s unlikely to hit MLB pitching without daily reps. I’m not talking about Zack Cozart or Yonder Alonso. I’m not even talking about Carlos Santana (although I’d happily give him the contract the Phillies did, if Dominic Smith were the key to a big trade).

Here’s a short list of players targeted by more aggressive teams, who I wish the Mets had gotten to first.

The list

Tom Koehler, Dodgers. The Mets always crushed him the second time through the order, but he often looked great for a few innings, with adequate velocity, a good breaking ball, and good control. Given the Mets’ current pitching talent, their single biggest need is multi-inning relievers. Who wouldn’t bet $2M to see if Koehler can be that?

Doug Fister, Rangers. A candidate to start or pitch in long relief, Fister would have given the Mets a vital safety net. A towering control artist with good movement, Fister got back to his former effectiveness late in 2017 after a bad couple of years. The Rangers only needed a one-year offer to grab him in November.

Wily Peralta, Royals. Why not see if this young, hard thrower can make it as a reliever?

Welington Castillo, White Sox. The only way the awful White Sox get their man without outspending the league (which they didn’t) is to court him hard and fast. Castillo has a spectacular arm and some pop, making him roughly twice as good as Travis d’Arnaud.

Matt Adams, Nationals. If the Mets are looking for a stopgap for Smith, how about a one-year deal for a platoon bat who crushes righties? Wilmer Flores can face the lefties.

Tommy Hunter, Phillies, or Hector Rondon, Astros. Hunter used to be one of the worst relievers in baseball. Just recently, he became one of the best, ditching his flat heater in favor of a cutter. Rondon is the opposite — bad recently, but a history of excellence, which he could rediscover if he stays healthy and if the 2018 baseball is less juiced. The important part is that these guys were had for two-year contracts at reasonable prices. Others in this category included Luke Gregerson, Steve Cishek, Joe Smith, and Pat Neshek.

Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and the rest of the Marlins’ fire sale. I doubt Stanton wanted to come to Queens in the end… but who knows, there may have been a moment when it was possible. More likely, there was a period of opportunity before Jeter found a taker for Stanton’s contract, when the Marlins were desperate to cut payroll and an aggressive move for anyone else on their roster would have paid off.

Are these all amazing moves? Risk-free moves? No-brainer moves? No. But they are a heck of a lot better than what’s currently on the Mets’ plate.

What’s currently on the Mets’ plate

The Mets don’t have anyone in a long-reliever role. They have lots of young guys still hoping to make it as starters. Do you like Robert Gsellman‘s odds of being a reliable two-inning reliever in 2018? I don’t.

Kevin Plawecki might be improving, but the Mets have a definite weakness at catcher, which they could have addressed by throwing Asdrubal Cabrera money at the problem. Instead, they handed that money to Cabrera, who is a better defensive third baseman than T.J. Rivera, Wilmer Flores, or Jose Reyes, but could probably be replaced by some combo of those three without weakening the position overall.

Rumor has it that the Mets are trying to talk Jay Bruce down from four years to three. What?! The only thing that separates Bruce from the bargain bin of low-OBP lefty sluggers is his tenuous grasp on the mobility to play a just-acceptable right field. Surely the Mets can find a cheaper, shorter-term option to cover Michael Conforto‘s absence in the outfield, and the same is true for a stopgap for Smith.

And finally, Anthony Swarzak? I’d be fine with 2/$14M for one of the relievers I listed above, but a guy with Swarzak’s history — durable but awful, then good but hurt — should come at a discount. Those extra few dollars matter in terms of meeting various needs on a Wilpon budget.

What do you think? Should the Mets be spreading their limited dollars around, saving them all for Jake Arrieta, or just waiting to see what falls into their laps in February? Have they already missed out on the most cost-effective ways to improve the team, or are comparable deals still to be found? Sound off in the comments!

Well, so much for sustainable success. The Mets followed up their one-game wildcard appearance season that followed up their pennant-winning season with a 90+ loss season. What exactly went wrong has been well-documented elsewhere.  You can read any number of poorly-written posts on some other insipid website for that. What we’re interested in here at Mets Today is just how the team plans to return to contention. (It’s amazing how a single 90-game losing season can make “meaningful games in September” attractive again).

Based on his lackluster returns from the Great Trade Off of 2017, current Mets GM Sandy Alderson probably isn’t the man to steer the Mets back into contention. Sandy is old and sick, and the organization has grown soft.  They’re still blinking from their exposure to the bright lights of the 2015 World Series, and are imagining that they can see a fully-healed pitching staff, and a sudden quantum leap from a passel of mediocre Mets farm hands drafted and developed during the Alderson era.

Instead the Mets need an unsentimental, not worried about your opinion, pushy, get-er-done GM type. Since Donald Trump already has a job, instead the Mets should look under enough rocks until they find and convince Steve Phillips to return, letting  him apply his turn of the millennia philosophy to building the 2018 Mets. For all this talk about back-to-back playoff appearances, Phillips’ teams actually won playoff games in their return engagement, something this current era’s Mets squad couldn’t.

Imagine a tanned, rested and ready Steve Phillips back in the GM saddle in Queens. So, WWSPD–What Would Steve Phillips Do?

1. He would say the following: “prospects will get you fired.” Before Phillips assumed the GM mantle in 1997, former 1986 Mets co-architect Joe McIlvaine held that post. Joe inherited a real mess–the team had lost over 100 games just the season before he took over. Slowly and methodically, Joe Mac re-stocked the Mets farm system with some intriguing prospects via the draft and the superstar-for-top-prospects trades that were the de rigueur front office moves for baseball back in the 1990’s. His efforts where given about a New York Minute to bear fruit, and when this didn’t happen, McIlvaine was shown the door. Enter Phillips, who traded/released nearly everyone of them, the main exception being future all-star Edgardo Alfonzo and the oft-injured Jay Payton. The rehabilitated 2018 Steve Phillips will make everyone of the Alderson-era Met farm system grads available, with the exception being future all-star Amed Rosario and currently-injured Michael Conforto. This means Dom Smith, Brandon Nimmo, Tomas Nido, Paul Sewald, Rafael Montero, Chasen Bradford, Gavin Ceechini  and a host of others that grew up in the Mets system could find themselves unceremoniously traded away.  Considering that the Mets played around .400 ball during the quarter of the season that these guys got a lot of playing time, this isn’t exactly shocking. Apparently unimpressed by the hype, Phillips also jettisoned all of the disappointing Generation K starters at rock-bottom discounts. This time around, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler shouldn’t signing any long-time leases on Manhattan studio apartments.
2. He would diss an injured loyalist. Todd Hundley was just about the only bright spot for the Mets in the mid 90’s, belting 71 homers in 1996-97 and earning a pair of All-Star nods. Then he hurt his elbow and was himself elbowed aside for the big Phillips acquisition (more on that later). He was also the previous regime’s guy. Phillips let Hundley embarrass himself in left field for a while and then sent him off to LA as part of a another big trade. This time around, his target is clearly David Wright. Phillips is going to want DW off the team for good, as injuries and age have caught up to David. But to successfully do this, he has to lay the groundwork…
3. He would make a blockbuster deal for a big bat with an expiring contract. Phillips made five great trades as Mets GM, three of them with Florida. The last one landed future Hall of Famer Mike Piazza. That trade did a lot of things, including making Hundley expendable. This time around, Phillips is going to trade Wilmer Flores, Matz, Rob Gsellman and Drew Smith to Toronto for Josh Donaldson and T.J. House. Donaldson is the big “get” here. He’s a third baseman, which makes Wright expendable. In what was a down year for him, he still slugged 30-plus homers. Also, if he bombs, he can walk after the ’18 season. Piazza could have walked as well, but Phillips got him signed to a big extension. With Donaldson on board, Phillips will convince the Wilpons to buy out David Wright’s remaining years,  relieving David of the agony of yet another failed comeback. Thanks for everything David, now hit the road.
4. He would bring back a former Met.  Phillips brought back Bobby Bonilla and Jeromy Burnitz. He undid his trades for Greg McMichael and Bill Pulsipher.  Now he’s bringing Lucas Duda back into the fold. Despite a low batting average, Lucas bashed a respectable 750 OPS with Tampa, slugging 13 homers. His lower batting average will scare off potential suitors, making Lucas a relatively cheap acquisition. This isn’t 1999 after all.
5. He would trade for a starting pitcher.  Phillips acquired Al Leiter, Mike Hampton and Hideo Nomo. He signed a past his prime but still effective Orel Hershisher. He made a very canny trade for Glendon Rusch. This time, dangling Dom Smith and Wheeler as the main bait, he’s going to deal with a division rival and land Julio Teheran. He will probably need to substitute or include other pieces such as TJ Rivera or Nimmo and perhaps one of the few remaining top farm pieces like Corey Oswalt. Teheran would fit nicely in the Met rotation as the #3 starter. For good measure, Phillips will also pluck John Lackey off the free agent pile, giving the 39-year old (on Opening Day) starter a chance to hold down one of the back spots in the rotation.
6. He would promote an obscure minor leaguer. Until he stopped to admire Todd Ziele’s non-home run in Game One of the Subway Series. Timo Perez was a nice catalyst for the 2000 Mets down the stretch and into the playoffs. The year before, he was a Hiroshima Carp, and not a very impressive one at that. The 2018 Steve Phillips will only need to reach as far as Binghamton, where he is going to pluck Luis Guillorme out of obscurity and into the starting second base job. To paraphrase Mike Francessa: “who is Luis Guillorme?” Well, MLB Prospect Watch  claims Guillmorme has the fastest hands of anybody in the Mets system. The site gushes about him and about the prospect of Guillorme and Rosario forming a spectacular up-the-middle infield combo. His bat is barely serviceable right now, but he his glove can carry him until the hitting catches up.

So when the smoke clears, Super Steve will have added Donaldson and Duda to the Cespedes-Conforto tandem, giving the Mets a pair of lefties and a pair of righties in the middle of the lineup. He has strengthened the up the middle defense, as the Guillorme-Rosario keystone, backed by Juan Lagares in center gives the Mets a nearly airtight defense. Terhan  and Lackey  join Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in the Met rotation. By getting Wright on the Bobby Bonilla installment plan and non-tendering Matt Harvey and Asdrubal Cabrera, he can keep the Met payroll under $150 million, while fielding a winning team that will get the turnstiles (and the advertising dollars) clicking again. Just like the good old days.

Author’s Note: Being a Mets fan requires a sense of humor. If you’ve made it this far into this post, then you probably have one. I don’t expect the Mets to add Donaldson, Teheran or Lackey, or promote a Double-A infielder. At least not in 2018. I think I share the common concern that a few cosmetic changes are coming for ’18, which will result in another lost season. THEN, the drastic changes will occur. Thanks for reading, keep the faith and have a great winter. See you next season, Let’s Go Mets!

Yes, I know what the team’s collective record and individual WARs are. But let’s dream for a moment: this new shortstop is pretty good. He took a couple of hard shots off his glove but stayed focused and made the easy plays. He also brings an energy to the team. It’s a lot to put on such a young man, I know, but he can be a real difference-maker. I was wrong about Conforto. He is making adjustments and has settled in. If nothing else, he will be Sandy Alderson’s lasting legacy to this team. With Yoenis Cespedes in left and Conforto in right, the Mets have a 60-70 homerun threat in their outfield. This, in my opinion, should allow them to carry Lagares in center. A team built around pitching needs a strong up-the-middle defense. Lagares and Rosario supply 1/2 of that need. Two things about Lagares: they will need to compensate for his bat elsewhere and he should be fined and benched the next time he dives for a ball. With Nimmo around, the Mets have their 4th outfielder. Nimmo is a real throwback type of player, he reminds me (in a good way) of Hunter Pence.

I hate to root against the guy, but I kinda hope David Wright’s latest comeback convinces him that it is time to hang ’em up. The Mets will not be able to carry a David Wright at 75% capacity. There is a perfect addition available this winter that currently toils in Kansas City. He’s under 30, has plenty of postseason experience and is definitely going to test the market. Some of the teams that may be normally eyeing him might be keeping their powder dry (and their wallets full) to take a run at Manny Machado the winter after next. The Mets may have an opportunity to add the perfect compliment to the Conforto-Cespedes tandem.   It also allows them to pick the best glove from their glut of middle infielders for second base.

Wow, a solid up the middle defense and power at the corners, are these the Mets we’d be talking about?

As far as the rotation and the bullpen go, by his absence alone Bartolo Colon has proven his value. The Mets need to get an innings-eating veteran to slide into the third slot of the rotation. They should have enough pieces to acquire one. How about a trade for Jeff Samardzija or Jordan Zimmerman? I’d hold my breath and pencil in Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom at the top of the rotation, and put this new pitcher in the three-spot. I believe that injuries and inconsistent play have damaged the trade value of Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, Robert Gsellman, and Seth Lugo, so while one or more may go elsewhere for this older pitcher, the rest, along with Flexen, get to complete for the final two spots in Spring Training. It would be messy, but very entertaining. A few of these guys could end up in the bullpen.

It was a long climb back from the collapses of 2007 and 2008.  Most of us waited, somewhat impatiently for the resurgence, which came suddenly and just as suddenly has seemed to disappear. There should be no more waiting, no more talk of rebuilding. Look at the Diamondbacks, who in one year have risen from a disarrayed, dysfunctional organization into a team that if the season ended today, would be in the postseason tournament. Last night showed that the Mets do have some pieces in place to make a similar move. While 45+ years of living and (mostly) dying with this team have made me cynical, I still have moments like last night, where the past may not be prolog and the Mets can be winners again. Here’s to hope.

So, another trade deadline has come and gone, leaving most Mets fans very disappointed again. The mantra this year was sell, sell, sell and fleece, fleece, fleece desperate would-be contenders of the cream of their farm system. Kinda like what happened to Jim Duquette and the Mets back in 2004.

Instead, and for the first time ever in Met history, the team both bought and sold at the deadline. In chronological order, they traded Lucas Duda to Tampa, acquired A.J. Ramos from Miami and shipped Addison Reed to Boston. Unfortunately for GM Sandy Alderson, no one wanted Curtis Granderson, Asdrubal Cabrera or Neil Walker, so they remain Mets. This is a big part of the angst around here these days. The “haul” from this trio of deals, especially when compared to what happened cross-town, is the other contributing factor.

Of all the Mets on the block, I was least confident that Alderson could move Duda. Instead, he went first, for a now twice-traded Double-A relief prospect. The Ramos acquisition came totally out of the blue. I was actually impressed, as Sandy has been caricatured (and not unfairly) as a somewhat somnolent plodder, unable to multi-task. Instead, he proved his mettle to be able to both buy and sell, although Ramos is certainly a mixed bag. Ramos is also signed for next year, so there is that.

But his acquisition paved the way for the departure of Reed. Reed to Boston for three relief prospects was touted as a restock of the Mets depleted farm system, the addition of three “intriguing arms” that “could help soon” for what is essentially an expiring asset. Where oh where, I wondered, have I heard this one before? Then it hit me:

December 7, 1988: Mets trade INF Wally Backman to the Minnesota Twins for minor league pitchers Jeff Bumgarner , Steve Gasser and Toby Nivens. And that’s how the Mets got Bumgarner.

Backman’s time with the Mets had clearly come to an end, as the team was planning on inserting Gregg Jefferies into his spot at second base. This was the next in an ongoing series of missteps by Met management, dismantling the World Championship team without any significant return. One of the three (and I think it was Bumgarner, but my memory has faded) did actually show some promise for a while, but in typical Met fashion, he hurt his arm and his career stalled.  Gasser never made it, depriving early 1990’s Met fans of seeing a Gasser-Sasser battery.

Look, none of us have any way of knowing if Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan or Stephen Nogosek are the next Nasty Boys or the next Bumgarner, Gasser and Nivens. With Callahan likely to be called up in September, the Mets will at the very least reap something more for Reed than their previous generation counterparts got for Wally Backman.

Gotta start somewhere.