mgoblog

Wednesday Recruitin'

Tim — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:05:27 +0000

All updates can be found on the 2010 Michigan Recruiting Board and the 2011 Michigan Recruiting Board.

Welcome to the Fold, Carvin Johnson

Sure to be the subject of many "Calvin Johnson with a Korean accent" jokes over the next 4+ years, LA S Carvin Johnson became the 20th member of Michigan's 2010 recruiting class last night. The full googlestalk of the under-the-radar prospect can be seen in the Hello: Carvin Johnson post, but there's still a little more info out there to be had, namely an article from nola.com. Relevant bits quoted below:

Johnson said also spoke Tuesday night to both Wolverines running backs coach Fred Jackson, who had recruited him since Michigan extended its official offer during August two-a-day practices. Johnson said reached his decision in consultation with his mother Kim.

That's a slight inconsistency with other stories, which said he was offered in May. Continuing along:

"First of all," Roth said, "everybody who knows Carvin or who has been around him knows that he’s as good of a person as he is a football player. That’s a compliment to him and his momma. Football-wise, he’s a ballhawk. He’s always around the football making plays."

Johnson, 6-foot-1, 195 pounds, with 4.7 speed in the 40, projects as a safety at Michigan. He is fully qualified academically with both the necessary core curriculum grade-point-average and test score, Roth said.

So, not only a (hopefully) good football player, but also a good student. Welcome, Carvin, may you be the first of many DB commits in November.

[editor takeover]

BONUS: A Lousiana high school coach emailed MGoBlog to suggest that just because Johnson is virtually unknown to the recruiting sites doesn't mean that he's not a player:

With regards to your posts on Carvin Johnson, I can tell you that you are wrong on your assessment.

As a veteran Louisiana high school football coach at several highly successful programs, I have had players go on and play all over the country and on to the pros. I have also had kids play for RRod at Tulane, Clemson and WVU. RRod knows the type of football we play here in LA and picks and chooses which schools he recruits. … RRod knows this state and which schools produce college-ready players.

Carvin Johnson is not even one of my players – but I have played against his Rummel team and know Jay Roth and his program well. Carvin Johnson can play. Here in LA, we do not send kids to camps to get hyped up. We know our kids can play. If a LA kid is going to combines, it is very much more than likely due to (a) his high school coach trying to get exposure for himself or (b) because his program isn’t any good, but he plays well. Trust me, this is how it is.

You are getting a solid player – big, physical, coached up, football smart.

Just my nickel’s worth of commentary because that kid can play. I saw him 1^st hand from my own sideline earlier this season when his team eked out a victory against us. Carvin can play and Jay is a good coach.

Coach Ox

So there you go: evidence that Johnson is a sleeper in a good way.

[/editor takeover]

Reverse Manifest Destiny

Last week, mgoblog's own TomVH reported that CA S Tony Jefferson would visit MIchigan for the Purdue game. WTKA's Ira Weintraub e-mailed to let us know that the date has changed, and now Jefferson will be in town for the contest against the Buckeyes. Greg Biggins of ESPN confirms that he will now visit the weeekend of the 21st.

Also in town from the left coast will be CA WR Kenny Stills. He also says:

"I talk all the time with [CA RB] Brennan Clay, Tony Jefferson, [CA CB] Joshua Shaw, [CA DE] Ronald Powell, a few others," Stills said. "There's a good chance a lot of us could be at the same school next year and that would be great.

Stills, Shaw, and Jefferson, plz. I believe Josh Shaw will complete that trifecta by also visiting for the OSU game. He has said he wants to take a Michigan visit, and that would be the perfect time to get him on campus.

In which I emulate Sherlock Holmes to an unnecessary degree

Remember back when GA DT Michael Thornton said he might take an official visit to Michigan at some point? TomVH confirms, via Twitter, that this will indeed happen. Considering that he's the only Georgia DT that Michigan is still heavily recruiting, we can assume this Scout header is about him, no?:

Georgia LB to Visit Michigan

GBW's Eugene Hankerson talked to the player - who plans to visit with his DT-Teammate.

Using a little detective work, we discover that there are three prospects in the Rivals database who are linebackers from Stephenson High School: Jabari Johnson, Franchot West, and Tyrone Cornelius.

Johnson doesn't have a picture available on his Scout profile, so he's out (otherwise the header photo for the article would be his profile picture). That leaves West and Cornelius. Let us compare the photographic evidence:

Cornelius, Mystery Man, and West

The mgo-photo analysis provides indisputable evidence: It's Mr. Cornelius, with the official visit, in the Big House.

I got way too much enjoyment out of this. Cornelius had been thinking about a Michigan visit for a while, FWIW.

Additional Linebackin'

FL LB Christian Jones is apparently still considering Michigan ($, info in header). I've re-added him to the board, since it seems like a lot of recruits are trying to stay as far as possible away from Florida State. Still, even getting him on campus would be a minor recruiting coup.

Part of the reason VA LB Aramide Olaniyan's is on the open market is that Duke was supposed to suck this year, and they did nothing to change those predictions in week one, falling at home to 1-AA Richmond. However, the Blue Devils have since rebounded, and now control their destiny in the ACC Coastal. Olaniyan is back to considering the Blue Devils, although Michigan still remains near the top of his list.

Happy Trails

It was apparent that he wasn't headed to Michigan for a while, but now we know where FL RB Eduardo Clements will play his college ball: Miami (YTM).

FL CB Ricardo Allen committed to Purdue.

2011 OH DE Steve Miller has committed to Ohio State, which is sad, but not unexpected. I at least thought he'd give Michigan an unofficial visit or two.

2011

Speaking of 2011, it's been a while since we've had an update on junior prospects. Athlete Vault has released an initial top 100 and relevant prospects at this time are:

#2 FL DT Timmy Jernigan (Michigan offer, but probably a Florida lock)

#3 AZ OT Christian Westerman (Michigan offer)

#10 GA TE Jay Rome (Michigan offer)

#12 MI LB Lawrence Thomas (Michigan offer, favors MSU)

#15 OH QB Braxton Miller (Michigan offer, favors OSU)

#27 FL S Hasean Clinton-Dix (Michigan interest, Dr. Phillips)

#35 FL WR/TE Kelvin Benjamin (Michigan interest)

#50 NC QB Christian LeMay (Michigan offer and camper, probably a lock to Florida)

#52 OH LB Trey DePriest (Michigan offer)

#54 DE Jalen Grimble (Michigan offer, added to the board)

#84 TX S Sheroid Evans (Stonum, Herron, Woolfolk HS)

#91 OH DE Chris Rock (Michigan interest)

#100 FL RB Demetrius Hart (Michigan lock)

Several other guys on the list will probably be of interest by the time 2011 recruiting truly ramps up.

For his part, Sheroid Evans would like to run track and major in engineering in college. Somebody get this kid on the phone with Troy Woolfolk and Patrick Omameh, stat.

Lawrence Thomas, on the other hand, is the subject of a ridiculously-misleading ESPN headline: "Mich. LB favors another Big Ten school" is a phrase which here means "Penn State is a school he is considering." The article itself even explicitly says he has no favorites.

Added OH TE Robert Mincey to the board, as he took a Michigan visit for the Penn State game ($, info in header). Same with PA OL Kevin Reihner.

SoFlaFootball also has its top 50 for 2011.

Etc.:

People close to MN OL Seantrel Henderson's recruitment are "beginning to think" he'll probably end up at Southern Cal. Uh, no, they've pretty much thought that all along. Notre Dame homers, on the other hand, think it's a 2-horse race between them and Ohio State. MI RB Jeremy Langford visited Michigan recently ($, info in header), I'd be surprised if an offer comes through. Michigan is pursuing post-grad VA DE David Mackall, currently a Maryland commit ($, info in header). I've added him to the board. SC CB John Fulton is selected to the Shrine Bowl. PA CB Cullen Christian no longer a lock? Say it ain't so! Is FL WR Kenny Shaw still interested in Michigan? A possible official visit would seem to imply so.

Blogpoll Week 9

Brian — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:42:04 +0000

Your top ten:

Rank	Team	PPB	StdDev	Delta
1	Florida (33)	24.1	0.8	1
2	Texas (34)	23.9	1.1	1
3	Alabama (20)	23.6	1.1	2
4	Cincinnati	20.6	1.5	--
5	TCU	20.1	1.8	1
6	Iowa	20.1	1.9	1
7	Boise State	19.8	1.6	--
8	Oregon	18.9	1.5	1
9	LSU	16.8	1.8	1
10	Georgia Tech	16.2	1.3	1

Bad week to have a bye for Alabama. Also: I don't get TCU. MGoTim wins (another) award! But it's kind of the second-most boring one. Details at CBS Sports.

Blogpoll Final Ballot: Week 9

Tim — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:15:18 +0000

Rank	Team	Delta

1	Texas	3
2	Alabama	1
3	Florida
4	Iowa	2
5	Cincinnati
6	Oregon	4
7	Boise State	2
8	TCU	1
9	LSU	1
10	Georgia Tech	2
11	Houston
12	Penn State	1
13	Southern Cal	7
14	Pittsburgh	2
15	Notre Dame	3
16	Ohio State	1
17	Oklahoma State	2
18	Virginia Tech	4
19	Arizona
20	Miami (Florida)
21	Wisconsin	1
22	California	1
23	Utah	2
24	Auburn
25	Texas Tech
Last week's ballot

Why yes, that does indeed look very similar to the first draft

Only one big change from the draft ballot. As someone mentioned in the comments, Texas's resume looks better than Alabama's now that all of Alabama's opponents have waned in recent weeks (OMG the SEC is just too strong to have any good teams other than the top two). That pushes the Longhorns to the top of the poll.

The other major quibble people had in the comments was where to rank Boise and Oregon in relation to each other. A lot of people said "Head to head, Boise must be first," and the counter-argument is "You can't rank teams based on one game." I clearly fall into the latter camp, as you can see by the ballot to your left.

Despite Boise head-to-head victory, and even their better overall record, I am of the opinion that the Ducks have put together a better overall resume to this point. Ironically, many of those pushing for Boise State to be moved past Oregon were saying things like

"In those cases, you have other data points,"

which, dude, that's an argument against your position, not for it. The two teams' respective resumes are below, along with the Sagarin ratings and records of all their opponents. You can decide for yourself what you think, I say it tips in favor of the Ducks. If enough people can put together MULTIPLE DATA POINTS and come up with legit reasons for Boise to take the crown, I'm all ears. "They stay ahead until they lose" is not legit, it's idiotic AP Poll-ism.

The only other qualm people brought up in the comments was potentially moving TCU past Boise State. For now, the main reason I left it as-is was that I didn't want to separate Oregon and Boise by more than one poll position. This week, they play relatively similar opponents in San Diego State and Louisiana Tech. If there's a big enough difference in their outcomes, I'll consider a move.

	Oregon	Boise State	Edge
1	47-20 #9 USC 6-2	19-8 #2 Oregon (7-1)	Slight Boise
2	42-3 #16 California (6-2)	51-34 #32 Fresno (5-3)	Big Oregon
3	31-24 #20 Utah (7-1)	49-14 #88 Bowling Green (3-5)	Medium Oregon
4	43-19 #38 Washington (3-5)	28-21 #92 Tulsa (4-4)	Big Oregon
5	24-10 #45 UCLA (3-5)	45-7 #98 San Jose State (1-6)	Big Oregon
6	38-36 #79 Purdue (3-6)	54-9 #123 Hawaii (2-6)	Push
7	52-6 #119 Washington State (1-7)	34-16 #136 UC Davis (4-4)	Big Oregon
8	8-19 #6 Boise (8-0)	48-0 #145 Miami NTM (1-8)	Big Boise
H2H	L @ Boise, 8-19	W v. Oregon, 19-8	Medium Boise

Links for 2009-11-03 [del.icio.us]

Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:00:00 PST

On ice hockey: Michigan’s biggest test of the season comes this weekend
Miami in the house. Go.
Improving a quarterback’s throwing motion
dude, smart football
Values are caught, not taught
Beilein in "Faith" magazine.
How do you evaluate when a team 'quits'?
whenever you want to because if that's your rhetoric you're just a spleen with a mouth
Stop Error
"Michigan football is Microsoft Windows." Windows 95.
The Tipping Point
Braves & Birds on Rodriguez vs Pep Guardiola. You either know who Pep is and are already clicking through or not.
Number 10 in White
When the jar on the floor was full, the jar feeding his elbow was empty, and the two were simply switched quickly so the stuff could drip back into him.

Hello: Carvin Johnson

Tim — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 01:40:34 +0000

Right. Michigan gains commitment from defensive back. There was much rejoicing? We'll find out after the informative update.

OK, now that I've had time to collect my thoughts, Michigan has gained a commitment from Louisiana Safety Carvin Johnson. Time for the...

Informative Update?

Yes, informative update. I thought Brian was the only one around here with a bolded alter ego though.

He's not.

Uh, OK. On to the update.

GURU RATINGS

Scout	Rivals	ESPN
NR S	NR DB	Not in Database

As you can see, Johnson is a COMPLETE STUD that the recruiting services ABSOLUTELY LOVE and have even HEARD OF. One of the few snippets out there on him comes from his coach, as shared by Josh Helmholdt in the Free Press:

Johnson is not even ranked on Rivals.com and his film has not made its way around the nation. Rummel coach Jay Roth said Johnson is a player who is effective in both pass coverage and run support.

“He’s a 6-1, 195-pound safety who is very aggressive and physical,” Roth said.

You could say that about pretty much any safety, even guys that have profiles on all three recruiting services! On a more serious note, he's NewOrleans.com's #48 player in the state of Louisiana (Drew Dileo is #46).

Johnson is a two-sport starter, serving as an outfielder on the Raiders baseball team. Football is clearly his best sport. "He's a fierce hitter. He has great hands and good instincts for the ball," said Rummel Head Coach Jay Roth.

Nice backhanded complement about the kid's baseball ability. I can just tell we all need more Jay Roth in our lives:

The Raider defense, led by defensive lineman Myles O' Brien, linebackers Chris Randle and Phil Helmstetter and safety Carvin Johnson, has been superb, according to Roth. "Our defense is the reason we are 5-0. The defensive coaches and players carry a certain swagger. They practice hard, study film and they are experienced."

Hooray. He was also the single reason NewOrleans.com saw fit to rank his school in its preseason top 10.

10) RUMMEL--Carvin Johnson is a stud on defense and on punt returns

So, yeah, he's probably the most important player on a good team (9-0 on the season, only allowing 8.3 points per game to opponents). That probably means at least 3 stars when the dust settles.

OFFERS

The Helmholdt article again comes in handy:

Michigan was one of the first to recognize Johnson’s talents. “It was early on in the spring that they offered me,” Johnson reported. “They say I fit pretty well in their defense. If I were to go there, I would get a chance to play early on..." Besides U-M, Johnson has received scholarship offers from Minnesota, Utah, Tulane and Tulsa.

The timing on the Michigan offer is odd, considering most had never heard of the guy until his official visit for the Penn State game. He may be a true sleeper, since the Wolverines thought him offer-worthy so long ago, but no other suitors have come a-callin'. For the record, his Rivals profile also lists offers from Louisiana Tech and Northern Illinois.

STATS

Recruits with no profiles are typically pretty difficult to find stats on. However, Coach Roth comes through for us again:

Carvin Johnson has done everything we could possibly ask for--help at wide receiver on offense, stars at defensive back and has returned three punts for touchdowns.

The rest of the information comes in snippets like this...

After a Carvin Johnson interception,

...from various game stories. His full season stats should take a while to dig up and compile, but he has at least 3 interceptions on the year, as well.

FAKE 40 TIME

The NewOrleans.com article pegs him at 4.68, which doesn't sound fake at all for a BCS-caliber safety. In fact, I give it negative one FAKE out of three.

VIDEO

Players without recruiting profiles do not have highlight videos available on the internet. That's just the way it is. Hopefully, there will be some freely-available video sometime soon.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Flimsy evidence ranges from "We are recruiting sites and we have never heard of this kid" to "we cover high school football in the area, and this guy is the Tim Tebow of defense." Wide ranging indeed. I would tend to believe a little bit of both. When recruiting sites haven't heard of a guy despite his BCS offers, there's a reason for that. When his high school is ranked in the preseason, and the only reason given by a local media outlet is his mere presence on the team, there's also a reason for that.

His interceptions and punt returns speak to both his athleticism and ball skills. His defense's performance against some pretty good talent in New Orleans area, with him as the star of said defense, speaks to the fact that he could probably start for Michigan Saturday if he showed up in Ann Arbor tomorrow.

With a dearth of quality bodies (...or any bodies) at safety for Michigan right now, any defensive back is a good defensive back. The staff clearly loves him and thinks they've uncovered a sleeper, given the early offer. He'll probably be a special-teamer in year 1 (or after a redshirt), and work his way into the defensive rotation by his third year on campus.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

None. Michigan still needs a million more defensive backs of all varieties. A prospect like this certainly won't do anything to scare away more highly-rated guys, and if he does, the Michigan coaches need merely pop in a lowlight tape from this year's defense. He does potentially help out down the road, without scaring anyone away.

You'd like to see the remainder of Michigan's defensive back pickups be of the 4/5-star type, but given the early offer, this is a "trust the coaches" pickup.

Etc. Shoutout to mgouser umhero for making my Googlestalk slightly easier. Posbang this post, folks.

Unverified Voracity Lets Freedom Ring

Brian — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 20:44:53 +0000

Note. In case anyone hadn't noticed, the restrictions implemented Saturday were lifted yesterday, so things should be back to normal. I think it worked out pretty well; there were a number of threads that got deleted but overall things here were way less dumb than elsewhere, thanks in large part to turning off the ability for people to sign up to vent. That system will return in the aftermath of future HEAD ASPLODE type events.

There have been complaints about censorship, to which I say nuts. Example of a pulled thread:

F--- me.
F--- my life.
If football can't fill the void in my life, i'm just going to have to turn to booze and sluts.

This is noise, and things on the internet get ruined when the signal to noise ratio gets too low. The MGoBlog trend is ever-increasing levels of restriction as the blog grows to keep the ratio relatively high, and that won't change.

Also BONUS. I've turned on the ability for folks to use Windows Live Writer to put up diary posts. For now it's restricted to 500+ point folk; once I know it's up and running without incident anyone will be able to use it if you like. Complicated instructions will allow you to access much more convenient picture uploads and tagging and whatnot. It's just a better editor in all ways. (protip: the main column is 560 pixels wide.)

Mac/Linux people will have to pound sand. Sorry.

Fun fun fun until daddy's head explodes, leaving chunks spread across the county. So… was yesterday's appearance on WTKA fun or what? Yes, it was fun or what. If you'd like a hear a man attempting to hang on to the last shreds of his sanity, there are podcasts:

Part 1 || Part 2 || Part 3 || Part 4 || Part 5 || Part 6

Sorry I can't embed them; WTKA's site is a little less than modern.

If you just want to get to the part where smoke comes out my ears, MVictors has helpfully clipped it out. Now I'm going to go put my head in a bucket of ice. Maybe I'll steam some broccoli at the same time.

Elsewhere in last weekend, This Week In Schadenfreude sticks Michigan—and yours truly!—above the fold. Peek into the terror that is my inbox.

Mary Sue got your back. President Coleman with the long-term vote of confidence:

"I don't think it's fair to coaches to bring them in and say, 'We're going to give you three years,'" she said in an interview on Friday, citing a recent example. "When [former men's basketball coach] Tommy Amaker came in, we stuck with him for six years. It just wasn't going to work; it wasn't the right fit. But it wasn't a rushed decision."

Note that the statement specifically implies not just next year but the year after for Rodriguez. Short of a major violation from the Freep jihad—which I will reiterate is not the expected outcome from anyone on the Michigan side of things—Rodriguez will get to 2011, at which point it's up to him.

Why the suck? We're living in an era of college football hyperbole thanks to the 12th game and bowl games now counting as official stats, but not retroactively. Every good multi-year starter is now breaking or threatening this record or that. There's no better example of this than Juice Williams approaching the top five in all time Big Ten passing yards. All these records mean nothing.

But there's one area of hyperbole that's not hyperbole at all: we are really living through an era of the worst calls in college football history. Before the advent of replay, bad calls were just bad calls and were relatively understandable since they were irreversible split-second decisions. Now, though, replay officials can commit the cardinal sin of screwing up an obviously correct call. Here's a touchdown from the Indiana-Iowa game:

This was ruled a touchdown on the field and overturned by the replay official. It is in the building when it comes to worst calls ever made because some guy saw indisputable evidence—watch the field turf change color as the IU receiver's foot rakes over it—of a touchdown and called it not a touchdown. (It's not very far in the building since I can think of two more egregious ones off the top of my head: Brandon Minor's pylon-aided touchdown against Michigan State last year and the onside kick Oregon was awarded despite never even recovering the ball.)

So, a question: why are confused goats allowed to run these things? Honestly. There is no other explanation for this stuff. A few years ago refs correctly called Antonio Bass down against Iowa and the replay official overturned it despite clear evidence that the reason the ball came out was Bass's elbow hitting the ground. They failed to overturn that ridiculous Domata Peko touchdown. On the Indiana call above it is so obvious that the PBP guy immediately says "oh he dragged that right foot" as the spray of fieldturf pellets goes up. Most replay calls are that obvious on a first viewing, and yet they take five minutes and there's a reasonable chance the guy in the booth can't see what's completely obvious to everyone watching the game.

I don't know what the fix is, but I think a major problem is that replay officials are often referees who have been put out to pasture. Therefore they are crazy and old. Putting crazy old people in charge leads to things like Florida State's defense. It is not a good idea.

You grow like a weed. Hope burgeons for your #15 Michigan Wolverine basketball team (who wants some FREE PPPPPIZZAAA) for a variety of reasons, mostly Manny Harris and Deshawn Sims. Big Ten Geeks has put together a great study that provides another reason for optimism:

The big, overarching conclusion is this: a player shows the most improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons than he does any other offseason. In fact, the freshman offseason improvement is, on average, greater than the improvement between a player's sophomore season and his senior season.

Here's the o-rating chart:

That's one of four graphs that all say the same thing: older players are better and younger players get better faster.

How this applies to the Big Ten this year:

Schwing. Indiana is a runaway winner here but their goal is to go from one of the worst teams in a major conference to one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Amongst actual contenders no team should see its players improve more than Michigan and the only team that's even somewhat close is Minnesota. The bounce Michigan gets should be significant.

I'll add in my default caution: past performance is a better predictor of future results than past results. Michigan's past performance lags behind their past results—they finished the year #50 in the Pomeroy rankings instead of the 40th-ish their tourney seeding suggested or the 32nd-ish their second-round status suggested. That's the baseline from which I'm measuring improvement, and from that perspective I've thought projecting a leap into the top 15 was optimistic. 25? Sure. 15? Probably not. The above chart is convincing enough to close some of that gap, IME.

You rang? There are three main questions going into the season. One: can Manny Harris reduce appearances of Evil Manny to a couple here and there? Two: will one of the wing players step up to be a true three-point gunner with an eFG percentage Salim Stoudemire would be proud of? And three: will we get anything from a big lumbering gumpy white guy?

BLGWG #1 is Zack Gibson, who can't shoot threes like he thinks he can and doesn't do much offensively but has erratic moments of OMGIBSON ownage. College bigs like him often take some time to get it together and find themselves blossoming into useful, even good players their senior year. Examples from recent Michigan vintage include Graham Brown and Chris Young. And late last year Gibson was a huge factor on defense, making a lot of plays that no one else on the roster can make for reasons of being 6'5" tops. I wouldn't be surprised if he had a quasi-breakout year that no one except Michigan fans notice.

BLGWG #2 is Ben Cronin, who Mike Rothstein hyped up a few days ago on AnnArbor.com:

“My legs are in the best shape they’ve been in in a long time,” Cronin said. “I’m sure it’s going to turn over on the court where I guarantee I’m going to be a little more explosive than I’ve ever been. And my endurance is going to be better because of the track, so I’m really excited about where I’m at.”

Cronin is what Beilein looks for in a big man. He’s intelligent. He has good passing skills, something demonstrated during Saturday’s open practice when he found cutting players from the high post.

He’s also demonstrated the ability to shoot three-pointers - something Beilein’s most well-known big man, former West Virginia center Kevin Pittsnogle, was known for.

There's no way Cronin is an effective or frequent three-point shooter and the conditioning/hip issues are probably going to limit him to 10-15 minutes a game—Beilein says Cronin "doesn't have his bounce back" in the article. But in his cameo last year before the injury redshirt he showed some skills to go with his hugeness. If he can spell Gibson effectively Michigan will be able to roll out a decently sized lineup against the big thumpers of the world, which would do wonders for Michigan's atrocious 2PT FG defense.

No. This guy attempts to defend Deadspin for the Phillips Incident, stating that the rumors weren't "unsourced" based on Daulerio's round of contrition interviews in which he repeatedly stated that they weren't just publishing random emails. I don't know if I believe that; given the way it was framed it was clear Daulerio didn't care either way, really.

And let's remember what the "news" is here: Deadspin has successfully ferreted out the very newsworthy information that one ESPN vice president is in a relationship with another ESPN vice president. Armed with this knowledge, we will defeat cancer and Marcelo Balboa. Daulerio's wandered around giving interview after interview in which he acknowledges he had a hissy fit, which he apparently thinks will earn him credit, before claiming that there was a noble purpose—exposing ESPN's inconsistent enforcement of sexual harassment rules—behind everything. The evidence marshaled for this consists of the following items:

An ESPN radio host sexually harassed someone and was suspended for it.
ESPN VP 1 is dating non-related ESPN VP 2.

Daulerio's attempts to explain his actions after the fact are feeble post-hoc justifications for a mean-spirited, purposeless expose on the private life of a non-public figure.

Etc.: I'm not sure why, but EDSBS has a photoshop of Gruden-as-M-coach on a post about Steve Kragthorpe. I noted that I didn't understand the blocking scheme on a particular run play that Penn State ran last week; Smart Football says it's a zone variant called the "pin and pull"

Mailbag!

Brian — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 17:33:38 +0000

Brian,

Not sure if you've addressed this, but what's your take on Brandon Graham vs. Lamar Woodley as seniors? Graham has been putting up Tacopants-esque numbers in UFRs and has to deal with some blatant holding no-calls on a regular basis. I know Woodley was similarly beast-like, but how do they compare?

Steve

I've been thinking about this myself: I think Graham is better. I haven't gone over the UFR numbers yet—slightly busy this time of year—but I know Graham set a record against Michigan State earlier this year and has been owning offensive tackles all year. Woodley set standards by being consistently around +8 or +9 with forays up to 12; Graham's baseline is around 12 and ranges up to 18. NFL backup: at this point he's probably going to be a higher pick than Woodley, who managed to fall to the second round, was.

Graham's numbers are going to end up better than those of Woodley, who finished his senior year with these stats:

Recorded 36 tackles (28 solos) and led the team for the second straight year with 12 sacks for minus 119 yards and 16.5 stops for losses totaling 131 yards…His 119 sack yards are the most ever by a Michigan player in a season…Also recovered four fumbles, returning one 54 yards for a touchdown…Tied the school season-record with four forced fumbles.

With three or four games left, Graham has 44 tackles, 17(!) TFLs, and 6.5 sacks. He'd have more sacks if the secondary ever covered anyone. He's spent large sections of the year battling double teams. He's not playing next to Alan Branch or in front of David Harris, Shawn Crable, and Prescott Burgess, so teams have far more leeway when it comes to blocking him, and he's still regularly crushing plays in the backfield. He makes a ton of plays that don't even show up in the stats, too.

If we're just going on senior-year production, I think it's Graham. At some point during the Penn State UFR I fired off an email to Dr. Saturday that was basically "Brandon Graham is an All-American; the rest of the defense makes me cry." Dr. Saturday might listen; no one else is going to pick out a player on a terrible defense for post-season awards, no matter how richly deserved they are.

Brian –

I think one of the reasons we all suspected a decent turnaround this season was that there was no way the team could repeat as having the worst TO margin in the country. At this point in the season that has not happened, and it is stunning to me. I wanted your thoughts on the subject.

Look at the infamous drive from Saturday. Regardless of how that turned out, the play calling at the goal line, the inept OL play at the goal line, whether the refs got it correct on the reviews*, or how it turned out Michigan fumbled the ball THREE TIMES on that drive. Forcier fumbled and Moosman recovered. Roundtree fumbled and was ruled down. Minor fumbled and was ruled down. How can three different players fumble the ball on the same drive
??? That isn’t random luck, that’s a systemic problem, isn’t it
??

I can understand why our defense isn’t creating take-away opportunities, because they suck.

I can understand that freshmen QB’s are going to be turn-over prone and that Robinson is responsible for a ton of those. (However, if you would have told me that the Forcier/Robinson pair would have been as inept as the Threet/Sheridan pair I would have slapped you in the face.)

I can understand to some extent that Brown and Minor would never be mistaken for Mike Hart.

But something is broken here. Is it talent? Is it coaching? Is it something else?

I mentioned this in a bullet at the end of the game column yesterday, citing a diary post that put Rodriguez's pre-Michigan numbers in a nice table so you could see them:

WVU	INT	FL	Tot	Opp Int	Opp FL	Opp Tot	TOM
2001	19	13	32	11	13	24	-8
2002	9	6	15	19	15	34	+19
2003	8	12	20	21	15	36	+16
2004	11	11	22	16	9	25	+3
2005	7	10	17	17	14	31	+14
2006	8	9	17	16	8	24	+7
2007	6	15	21	16	18	34	+13
Average/Game	0.8	0.9	1.7	1.3	1.1	2.4	+0.7

Here are the Michigan numbers:

U/M	INT	FL	Tot	Opp Int	Opp FL	Opp Tot	TOM
2008	12	18	30	9	11	20	-10
2009 (8 Games)	10	8	18	7	4	11	-7
Average/Game	1.1	1.3	2.4	0.8	0.75	1.55	-0.85

So we've got three negative teams here: Rodriguez's 3-8 opening season in Morgantown and the last two at Michigan. You could argue that the turnovers caused the crappy records of those teams, but a quick glance at the yardage for and against—not so good—suggests that the relationship is the inverse: the crappy teams' crappiness is exacerbated by lots of turnover issues.

The defense sucking is apparent: 20 turnovers last year and on pace for maybe 17 this year, numbers lower than any Rodriguez had at West Virginia and approximately 60% of the WVU average. The offense is running at a 40% higher turnover clip, too. It is a wholesale failure.

The emailer ran down three reasons, all of which I think apply to the situation, and left one out: poor pass protection. Turnovers are pretty random but not entirely so, and the one thing that consistently causes them is pressure on the quarterback. See: Kirk Cousins in the MSU game, who turned the ball over three times because he got hit as he threw or was stripped as he was sacked. Quarterbacks naturally turn the ball over more than anyone else, but only if they're getting pressure. Michigan's combination of freshman quarterbacks and a leaky offensive line is murder for TO margin, especially when those quarterbacks are as raw as Robinson or as moxified as Forcier.

Rodriguez does not have a history of lots of turnovers on offense so the assumption here is that the last two years of butterfingers are a talent issue, not a coaching one. Michigan's failure to acquire turnovers is obviously a talent issue, too, but could have some coaching components to it since Jeff Casteel stuck with WVU. It's too early to tell in Robinson's first year.

Hi Brian, long time reader and listener,

Seems to me the Oregon team looks a lot like Michigan is supposed to. Chip Kelly, who studied under Rodriguez, isn't even in a full year and has a team that looks cohesive and fully engaged in the spread system. I know they were a spread team before, but it still doesn't make sense that there is no comparison between the two teams.

I guess my question is, hasn't Rodriguez had enough time to recruit those fast players, even if the team is not yet complete enough to win like Oregon? Michigan has all these smaller guys but still seems as slow as it ever has. Why the glaring differences?

Nick

Chip Kelly is in his third year at Oregon. Mike Bellotti brought him in as offensive coordinator before the 2007 season after Kelly's spread 'n' shred at New Hampshire tore up I-AA defenses. Bellotti had also been an offensive coordinator elevated to head coach when Rich Brooks left Oregon in 1994. Oregon set up a smooth coach-in-waiting transition and avoided any unusual attrition in the changeover.

As far as the offense: in 2005, Oregon moved from a traditional passing attack with Joey Harrington under center to a spread 'n' shred when Bellotti hired Gary Crowton. Only redshirt seniors were recruited with a different offense in mind..Oregon is in year five of a transition period that had its ugly moments, like a 38-8 loss to BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, and never had the sort of black hole at quarterback Michigan did. Jeremiah Masoli was a third-string sophomore JUCO transfer; Michigan's third string quarterback is Nick Sheridan.

So, yes, Chip Kelly is a first-year head coach but this was essentially an internal transition for a team already set up to run a spread 'n' shred.

Q: Has an RR offense ever featured running back screens? I know we do the bubble stuff and the RB wheel routes and flats, but what about a more traditional screen? It seems like Abundance of RB Talent Relative to WR Talent + Opposing Defenses Knowing They Can Overwhelm the OL With Blitzes should = Let’s At Least Try a Few Screens and Maybe One of Them Will Go to the House.

Yours,

Willie Beavers

I don't think so. Michigan's used a flare screen several times this year—Carlos Brown scored a 60-yard touchdown against Indiana on it—but the traditional drop-back-and loft-it-over-a-zillion-guys screen is not a staple of the offense. I'm not sure why, but I get the impression that it wouldn't work very well because it would be easy to scout: oh the tailback is running in this direction, which is unlike any of the directions he usually runs because it's not a stretch play it's probably this thing we saw on film and is not very disguised.

Yep these are my readers, I steal from Simmons, go:

It's not the city of trees, but 17 trees and counting are missing branches of various length in New York City.

RAGE!

For those wondering what this means, I promised to rip a branch off every tree in Ann Arbor if we lost.

Friday Night Lights 2009: 11-3

Tim — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 15:49:03 +0000

If you can help out finding articles on any of the commits, e-mail me, and I'll try to include your contribution.

MI QB Devin Gardner

Last week: Pregame fluff from the Detroit News. Inkster pounds Dearborn Edsel Ford 51-19 in Round 1 of the State Playoffs. Gardner completed 4 of 7 passes for 51 yards and 2 touchdowns, while also running 6 times for 98 yards and another pair of scores. mgoblog was there, and thus provides you with rockin' HD highlights:

As you can see, his first 4 pass attempts were completed. Add to that the fact that 2 of the incompletions were Hail Marys and one was a perfect fade to a receiver whose toe was on the line, and you have a pretty good passing day.

This week: Inkster (6-3) @ Redford Thurston Friday at 7:00 in Round 2 of the State Playoffs.

Devin Gardner 2009
		Passing							Rushing
Game	Result	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	%	Yds/Att	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg
Pioneer	L 32-35	10	14	97	1	0	71.43	6.93	16	113	1	7.06
East Kentwood	L 33-52	19	30	389	3	1	63.33	12.97	10	102	2	10.20
St. Edward	W 14-7
Highland Park	W 27-22	9	16	127	2	2	56.25	7.94	11	74	2	6.73
Bay City Central	W 27-20	7	13	132	1	0	53.85	10.15	15	95	1	6.33
Muskegon CC	W 34-19	4	9	110	0	0	44.44	12.22		99	1
St. Ignatius	L 20-49				1	0					1
Steubenville	W 36-29	14	25	275	4	0	56.00	11.00	11	55	1	5.00
Regular Season	(5-3)	63	107	1130	12	3	58.88	10.56	63	439+	9	6.97
Edsel Ford	W 51-19	4	7	51	2	0	57.14	7.29	6	98	2	16.33
Totals	(6-3)	67	117	1181	14	3	57.26	10.09	69	537+	11	7.78

SC QB Conelius Jones

Last week: Spartanburg falls to Boiling Springs 35-39.

the Vikings marched down inside the Boiling Springs 30-yard line in the final minutes, but a fourth-down run by quarterback Conelius Jones, another Shrine Bowl pick, was stopped short

For Spartanburg, Jones ran for 77 yards and a touchdown and threw for a score to Alton Miller.

And what is this "Shrine Bowl" you speak of? It's the North v. South Carolina High School All-Star game. Jones was selected to play as a wide receiver. Interesting quote from the article:

Spartanburg quarterback Conelius Jones, committed to Michigan as a defensive back,

To the best of my knowledge, he's coming in to Michigan as a quarterback, with a potential move to DB down the road.

This week: Spartanburg (3-7) @ Dorman.

Conelius Jones 2009
		Passing							Rushing
Game	Result	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	%	Yds/Att	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg
Dorman	L 7-20	7	24	42	0	0	29.17	1.75	0	0	0	-
Union	W 35-0	7	8	88	1	0	87.50	11.00	9	57	3	6.33
Northwestern	W 20-10			125	1	0				45	1
Sumter	L 21-24	17	26	189	1	1	65.38	7.27	21	59	1	2.81
Greenwood	L 9-21	15	25	219	0	0	60.00	8.76	19	36	1	1.89
Gaffney	L 7-14	18	30	184	0	1	60.00	6.13	21	60	1	2.86
Byrnes	L 6-49	9	24	106	1	0	37.50	4.42	13	94	0	7.23
Mauldin	L 27-46	7	14	92	1	0	50.00	6.57	10	7	0	0.70
Hillcrest	W 31-20	4	6	54	0	0	66.67	9.00	10	90	2	9.00
Boiling Springs	L 35-39				1	0				77	1
Totals	(3-7)	84	157	974+	6	2	53.50	6.20	103	403+	10	3.91

MI RB Austin White

Last week: Stevenson defeats Northville 21-7 in Round 1 of the State Playoffs.

Stevenson put two touchdowns on the board, including a 1-yard run by Austin White...

Stevenson then ran out the clock as White, who finished with a team-high 117 yards on 19 carries, racked up three first downs...

“He (White) is the type of back that can also be patient,’’ Ladach said. “He can nickel-and-dime you, too. Stevenson has a good offense. We did a pretty good job, but obviously we didn’t do enough.’’

This week: Stevenson (8-2) @ Detroit Catholic Central Saturday at 7:30 in Round 2 of the State Playoffs.

Austin White 2009
		Rushing				Receiving
Game	Result	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
Franklin	L 7-21	14	64	1	4.57	-	-	-	-
Howell	L 14-28	16	119	2	12.44	4	59	0	14.75
Salem	W 34-7			2
South Lyon	W 37-0	8	173	3	21.63	0	0	0	-
Northville	W 31-0	22	164	2	7.45	0	0	0	-
Novi	W 14-7	28	133	1	4.75	3	34	0	10.33
South Lyon East	W 47-20	16	234	5	14.63	0	0	0	-
Canton	W 36-27	31	165	3	5.32	0	0	0	-
Churchill	W 42-10	19	211	1	11.11	0	0	0	-
Regular Season	(7-2)	154	1263+	20	8.20	7	93	0	13.29
Northville	W 21-7	19	117	1	6.16	0	0	0	-
Totals	(8-2)	173	1380+	21	7.98	7	93	0	13.29

TX RB Tony Drake

Last week: Skyline downs W.T. White 62-3. Drake had just 4 carries, but they went for 50 yards, including a 13-yard touchdown.

This week: Skyline (9-0) @ Sunset on Thursday.

Tony Drake 2009
		Rushing				Receiving
Game	Result	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
Kimball	W 51-2	8	69	1	8.63	0	0	0	-
Bowie	W 35-27	13	92	1	7.08	2	14	0	7.00
Plano East	W 45-19	15	167	1	11.13	0	0	0	-
Lake Highlands	W 42-27	19	226	2	11.89	1	6	0	6.00
Molina	W 65-0	1	54	1	54.00	0	0	0	-
Richardson	W 36-7	13	102	0	7.85	1	13	0	13.00
Berkner	W 39-7	9	43	1	4.78	1	32	0	32.00
Creekview	W 62-10	16	139	1	8.69	2	14	0	7.00
W.T. White	W 62-3	4	50	1	12.50	0	0	0	-
Totals	(9-0)	98	942	9	9.61	7	79	0	8.78

TX RB Stephen Hopkins

Last week: Game preview pregame fluff . Marcus defeats rival Flower Mound 63-39.

Hopkins broke loose for a 49-yard touchdown scamper on the ensuing play. It was the first of many long runs for Marcus.

Hopkins ran 21 times for 217 yards and two touchdowns, the second of which covered 44 yards. Hopkins photo by Louis DeLuca of the Dallas Morning News.

This week: Marcus (5-3) @ Hebron.

Stephen Hopkins 2009
		Rushing
Game	Result	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg
Grapevine	W 62-28	13	87	2	6.69
Plano West	W 35-25	28	128	3	4.57
Katy	L 24-34	13	38	1	2.92
Tyler Lee	W 17-7	22	118	1	5.36
Lewisville	W 56-7	10	110	4	11.00
Southlake Carroll	L 30-41	28	150	1	5.36
Coppell	L 21-42	22	96	0	4.36
Flower Mound	W 63-39	21	217	2	10.33
Totals	(45-3)	157	944	14	6.01

LA Slot WR Drew Dileo

Last week: Game preview. Parkview Baptist beats Baker 35-0.

Senior Drew Dileo scored on a 19-yard run with 9:16 remaining in the third quarter. Dileo passed to Johnson for two points and the final scoring of the game.

Dileo added 36 yards rushing on five tries.

This was a "pull the starters" type of game in bad weather, which partially explains the pedestrian stats.

This week: Parkview Baptist (7-1) @ Redemptorist on Thursday.

Drew Dileo 2009
		Rushing				Receiving
Game	Result	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
Christian Life	W 60-14					1	50	1	50.00
Arcadiana	W 31-14	14	77	0	5.50	1	35	1	35.00
Church Point	W 54-0					2	40	1	20.00
Port Allen	W 32-7	11	65	0	5.91	3	92	2	30.67
Dutchtown	L 15-24	13	24	1	1.85	3	32	0	10.67
Northeast	W 41-27	7	44	1	6.29	1	18	1	18.00
West Feliciana	W 23-7		50	1
Baker	W 35-0	5	36	1	7.20	0	0	0	-
Totals	(7-1)	50	246+	4	4.92	11	267	6	24.27

MI WR Ricardo Miller

Last week: Pregame fluff. Pioneer bests Temperance Bedford 28-7 in Round 1 of the State Playoffs. MLive article.

Then midway through the final quarter Sorise capped a five-play drive with a 22-yard pass that bounced off a Bedford defender into the hands of Pioneer's Ricardo Miller for a TD...

Miller, who has verbally committed to play at Michigan, caught five passes for 70 yards after making just two catches for 16 yards in the first contest.

"We had to play a lot more Cover 3 because they went to a tight-end set with Ricardo Miller in the middle," Wood explained. "You can't let Miller run free down the seam, so we had to bring the safety over the top."

Big game for Miller, especially considering the inaccuracy by the Pioneer QB. Also, hooray for filling in stats for a game that had previously been blank on his season-long chart. Miller photo by Lon Horwedel of AnnArbor.com.

This week: Pioneer (8-2) @ Canton Friday at 7:00 in Round 2 of the State Playoffs.

Ricardo Miller 2009
		Receiving
Game	Result	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
Inkster	W 35-32	3	70	0	23.33
Dexter	W 45-0	2	100	2	50.00
Saline	W 36-17	3	48	1	16.00
Arthur Hill	W 58-20	1	20	0	20.00
Bedford	L 21-28	2	16	0	8.00
Monroe	W 41-6			3
Huron	W 23-19	2	48	0	24.00
Chelsea	W 23-19	4	123	1	30.75
Fordson	L 21-24	2	46	1	38.00
Totals	(7-2)	19	471	8	26.36
Bedford	W 28-7	5	70	1	14.00
Totals	(8-2)	24	541	9	22.54

OH WR Jerald Robinson

Last week: Canton South continues its 1-game win streak with an upset over Carrollton 28-21. Robinson caught a 30-yard touchdown pass in the game.

This week: Canton South (3-7) missed the state playoffs, and its season is over.

OH WR DJ Williamson

Last week: Harding defeats Akron North 63-24.

This week: Harding (6-3-1) will not make the State Playoffs, and its season has ended.

OH OL Christian Pace

Last week: Avon Lake defeats Amherst-Steele 34-6. You can watch the entire game at that link, if you so desire.

This week: Avon Lake (7-3) @ Maumee Friday at 7:30 in Round 1 of the State Playoffs.

OH DT Terry Talbott

Last week: Wayne defeats Springfield 40-13. No mention of either Talbott in the article.

This week: Wayne (7-3) v. Elder in Round 1 of the State Playoffs.

PA DE Ken Wilkins

Last week: Trinity defeats Ringgold 24-10. Shockingly, that made them eligible for the playoffs, even at 4-5.

The Hillers were shorthanded entering the game, having to play without Michigan recruit Kenny Wilkens [sic], who was out with mononucleosis.

This week: Trinity (4-5) v. Mars in Round 1 of the State Playoffs.

PA DE Jordan Paskorz

Last week: Hampton "roughs up winless Highlands" 59-0.

This week: Hampton (5-4) v. Chartiers Valley in Round 1 of the State Playoffs.

OH LB Antonio Kinard

Last week: Liberty loses to Girard 12-19.

This week: Liberty (4-6) missed the State Playoffs, and its season is over.

FL S Marvin Robinson

Last week: Lake Region loses to Jenkins 7-34.

The Thunder are playing without starting quarterback Tavaris Carr and Division I prospect safety Marvin Robinson because of injury.

Word on the street is that Robinson might be able to play injured, but with his team doing so poorly, he doesn't want to jeopardize spring practice at Michigan by re-aggravating it.

This week: Lake Region (0-7) @ Bartow.

OH CB Courtney Avery

Last week: Game preview. Lexington falls to Ashland 28-31.

The loss tempered a career night by Avery, who has battled injuries all season. The Michigan-bound senior completed 32 of 42 passes for 313 yards and two TDs and rushed for a score.

“Courtney is a player,” said [opposing coach] Valentine. “There’s a reason everyone was behind him and he goes to Michigan. I look forward to seeing him play on Saturdays.”

This week: Lexington (6-4) missed the State Playoffs, and their season is over.

OH CB Terrence Talbott

Last week: Wayne defeats Springfield 40-13. No mention of either Talbott in the article.

This week: Wayne (7-3) v. Elder in Round 1 of the State Playoffs.

WI P Will Hagerup

Last week: Whitefish Bay falls to Eisenhower 10-17 in Round 1 of the State Playoffs.

This week: Whitefish Bay (5-5) has completed its season.

2011 OH CB Greg Brown

Last week: Ross loses to Sandusky 0-30.

Greg Brown intercepted a Zak Esposito pass as Sandusky was going in to score, but set up in awful field position assisted Sandusky in forcing Ross to a three-and-out.

This week: Ross (5-5) missed the State Playoffs, and its season is over.

Greg Brown 2009
		Receiving				Rushing
Game	Result	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg
Start	W 24-7	3	39	0	3.67
Whitmer	L 25-29	3	72	1	20.53
Columbian	W 49-35	3	98	2	32.67
Benedictine	W 28-21 (OT)	6	99	1	16.50
Lahser	W 22-14	1	0	0	0.00	3	17	0	5.67
Findlay	L 40-43 (3OT)	8	122	1	15.13	0	0	0	-
Marion Harding	L 0-21	0	0	0	-	4	13	0	3.25
Napoleon	L 14-28	0	0	0	-	1	-1	0	-1.00
Lima Senior
Totals	(4-4)	24	430	5	17.88	18	91	0	5.06

Seasons Complete

MI WR Jeremy Jackson

Huron's (5-4) season ended without a playoff berth.

Links for 2009-11-02 [del.icio.us]

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 00:00:00 PST

Illinois finds the cure: A little hustle, and a lot of Michigan's defense
Doc Sat on that.
Falcon Hockey Update: Controversy at Qwest
CCHA refs let an ineligible shooter go in the shootout.
Wolverines upset 12th-ranked Northwestern
soccer is meh this year, but may have given themselves a shot at an at-large bid if they win @ OSU this weekend.
Football vs Illinois 10-31-09 - a set on Flickr
Daily photoset.
Locker Room Report: How Michigan prepares
Harris: "[Beilein's] obsessed with [video] We watch it every day. You come from class, walk by his office and he'll say, 'Come in; I want to show you something.' I honestly think he wakes up at 5 a.m. and looks at tape -- probably earlier than that."
don't click here
walken is bluffin' with his muffin
Notre Dame Games Could Go To Versus If Comcast Buys NBC
please God, make this happen.
This Week In Idiotic Questions
the worldwide leader in them.

The Decimated Defense, Part II: the Statisticating

Misopogon — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:58:13 +0000

[Editor's note: holy hell, man. This is like a PhD thesis.]

It hits you like a thousand knives stabbing you all over your body. You can't breathe. You can't think. At least, not about anything but the pain.

I'm searching for a metaphor.

Amidst the phantom flags and the Angry Michigan Hating Bounces and the dropping of babies on 3rd down on Saturday you could not possibly have missed a notable lack of competency in the 11 guys tasked with making sure the other guys score less than we do, otherwise referred to as "Michigan's Defense."

This is Part II of the afore-bumped diary "The Decimated Defense," a look at what has happened to turn Michigan's once vaunted defense into..

I don't have a metaphor...

Something that has a lot of really shiny beautiful parts, that ostensibly looks like something grand and wonderful, but like with some major defect or hole in it, from which pours in death and destruction...

In the wake of, well, that, I'm sure that you, as I, need to understand what happened to Michigan's defense, how we got here, will it get better, and can it be avoided again?

In the first of this series, I went through Michigan's last five classes to see if we could find where and what went wrong in defensive recruiting to lead us to a day when Jordan Kovacs was all that stood between the program and the bottom of the sea. We looked at the cheap rivets, the lack of safety training, and missing life boats, while Brian UFR'ed a really big iceburg.

It was long, and mostly stuff you already knew, and at one point you had to fix yourself a sandwich, but at the end we identified two factors that were very likely contributors:

Small classes
High attrition

Today we put that in context. I compared the current rosters to the recruited rosters of Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Michigan State and Alabama, to see how each of these teams were built, and what was lost along the way, in order to understand why should so many other luxury liners and loveable tugboats and whatnot stay dry as we face a watery grave?

(Excel spreadsheet lives here.)

Recruiting: Quantity and Quality

Rose: The fall alone would kill you.

Jack: It would hurt. I'm not saying it wouldn't. Tell you the truth, I'm a lot more concerned about that water being so cold.

Here's how Michigan stacked up in pure defensive recruiting from 2005 through 2009 (Rivals ratings used):

	Michigan	Alabama	MSU	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Penn State
2-stars	2	8	24	1	4	9
3-stars	20	34	30	22	20	18
4-stars	23	37	10	19	32	23
5-stars	3	4	0	1	3	2
TOTAL	48	83	64	43	59	52

This counts every recruit that came in ready to play defense, except athletes who played their entire careers on offense. It also includes offensive recruits later moved to defense. It excludes walk-ons.

Many nuggets here. Let us bullet:

Notre Dame fans who blame recruiting for some of their woes have a beef. Their classes have been highly ranked, but even smaller than paltry Michigan's!
Bama LOL
Michigan and Penn State recruited pretty similarly. The big difference was that PSU brought in 7 more 2-stars.
Michigan and Ohio State both recruited 20 players of 3-star caliber, and 3 blue chips, but OSU had 9 more 4-star players during that time.
Michigan State clearly isn't in the same recruiting league as these others. They're basically averaging one lower star per recruit
...but out of a respectable class size.
Even so, Alabama had more 3-star defensive recruits over this time than Michigan State.

Michigan's closest recruiting analogue here is Penn State, with the high-end (4-5 star) recruiting separated by one more 5-star guy for us. You can call Notre Dame basically a Michigan-light. If anything, the Fighting Irish have been even pickier about talent than U-M, OSU and PSU, except they haven't been as successful at reeling in the big fish as any of the major schools profiled.

For these schools, the distribution seems weighted slightly toward the top, but their bell curves are only slightly ahead of OSU and Bama. However, when placed beside each other, it's easy to see how large amounts of recruits can generate a much more sizeable talent pool from which to draw starters.

So recruiting tells a story, but certainly not the story. Certainly, Alabama and Ohio State recruited the most 4- and 5-star players, and subsequently have great defenses.

Michigan and Penn State should, just going by recruiting, have about the same level of defense, with maybe one more NFL-bound player in Ann Arbor, and maybe a bunch of 2-star guys backing up at Penn State instead of Michigan's walk-ons. Or it would be, if attrition was constant. We will see in the next section that it isn't. But you knew the problem wasn't just recruiting, anyway, since you know that Penn State's defense is legitimately good, and Michigan went into this season steering a pre-WWI luxury liner.

First, though, while we're on pure recruiting, let's look real quick and see if it's actually the age of the recruits that matter. Since they should be theoretically the heart of a great defense, and since the distribution among all schools except Michigan State was fairly equal when it came to 4- versus 5- stars, let's just look at those two groups, and when they came in for each school (MSU left out to spare them the indignation of looking like Antarctica):

	Michigan	Alabama	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Penn State
2005	4	3	0	6	3
2006	6	5	2	6	8
2007	4	8	4	8	6
2008	7	15	10	6	4
2009	5	10	4	9	4
4-Star+	26	41	20	35	25

[At this point I would ask everyone else to pause for a moment while we give Irish, who has been waiting patiently all this time, an opportunity to assign righteous blame on Ty Willingham. HE did this, precious!]

Okay, so other than an '05-'06 "Domer LOL," did we get anything out of this?

Penn State's great defense has a lot of high-rated juniors and seniors on it -- more than any other school. Michigan was kind of even, but actually should have had more upperclassmen than Bama or Notre Dame. Ohio State has been strong all the way through. Alabama is going to be really really good in a few years.

There's nothing here to suggest Michigan should be really bad. Not yet.

Moving on.

The Other Shoe, of Which Its Current Gravity Situation You Were Well Aware

Rose : Don't you understand? The water is freezing and there aren't enough boats. Not enough by half. Half the people on this ship are going to die.

Cal: Not the better half.

Cal, if you make it off that ship, and if that whole heir-to-a-robber-baron thing doesn't work out for you, you might make a fine SEC recruiting coordinator.

What I'm talking about is Alabama's over-signing strategy, which has been covered many times on this blog. In short, the Crimson Tide under Saban have recruited more guys than they have scholarships for, expecting enough will find reason to get themselves expelled or booted off the team before the count becomes official. The ultimate effect is that Saban has a strong incentive not to keep troubled players, particularly less talented troubled players, in school.

I bring it up now because:

	Def. Recruits	On Roster	On Roster %
Michigan	48	28	58.33%
Alabama	83	52	62.65%
Michigan State	64	45	70.31%
Penn State	52	40	76.92%
Ohio State	59	46	77.97%
Notre Dame	43	36	83.72%

Bullets?

Bullets.

Michigan has had higher attrition from 2005 to 2009 than Alabama.
Let's rephrase: Michigan has had higher attrition than a team that has been TRYING TO SHED PLAYERS.
If Ohio State is pulling a 'Bama, there is zero evidence for it here. They have a reasonable number of recruits, and very low attrition.
Penn State, as I mentioned before, is a much older team, and therefore has had a lot more time to lose guys to graduation and leaving early for the NFL and whatnot. In that light, their retention rate is pretty darn good.
Michigan State and OSU ended up with about the same number of recruits on their respective rosters, while Bama was just a bit higher.
Notre Dame's team is much, much younger, hence the high retention rate.
Attrition has generally been higher for the teams with coaching changes in the last few years.
Michigan's 28 scholarship athletes on defense may work on your pre-2005 EA Sports video game (which had a 55-player limit) but is way, way below the competition.
58.33 percent, as it turns out, is in fact quite putrid.

Editor's note:

It hits you like a thousand knives stabbing you all over your body. You can't breathe. You can't think. At least, not about anything but the pain.

Part II

The Decimated Defense

that

Small classes
High attrition

here

Recruiting: Quantity and Quality

Rose: The fall alone would kill you.

Jack: It would hurt. I'm not saying it wouldn't. Tell you the truth, I'm a lot more concerned about that water being so cold.

Rivals ratings used)

	Michigan	Alabama	MSU	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Penn State
2-stars	2	8	24	1	4	9
3-stars	20	34	30	22	20	18
4-stars	23	37	10	19	32	23
5-stars	3	4	0	1	3	2
TOTAL	48	83	64	43	59	52

Many nuggets here. Let us bullet:

Notre Dame fans who blame recruiting for some of their woes have a beef. Their classes have been highly ranked, but even smaller than paltry Michigan's!
Bama LOL
Michigan and Penn State recruited pretty similarly. The big difference was that PSU brought in 7 more 2-stars.
Michigan and Ohio State both recruited 20 players of 3-star caliber, and 3 blue chips, but OSU had 9 more 4-star players during that time.
Michigan State clearly isn't in the same recruiting league as these others. They're basically averaging one lower star per recruit
...but out of a respectable class size.
Even so, Alabama had more 3-star defensive recruits over this time than Michigan State.

the

	Michigan	Alabama	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Penn State
2005	4	3	0	6	3
2006	6	5	2	6	8
2007	4	8	4	8	6
2008	7	15	10	6	4
2009	5	10	4	9	4
4-Star+	26	41	20	35	25

The Other Shoe, of Which Its Current Gravity Situation You Were Well Aware

Rose : Don't you understand? The water is freezing and there aren't enough boats. Not enough by half. Half the people on this ship are going to die.

Cal: Not the better half.

covered

not

	Def. Recruits	On Roster	On Roster %
Michigan	48	28	58.33%
Alabama	83	52	62.65%
Michigan State	64	45	70.31%
Penn State	52	40	76.92%
Ohio State	59	46	77.97%
Notre Dame	43	36	83.72%

Bullets?

Michigan has had higher attrition from 2005 to 2009 than Alabama.
Let's rephrase: Michigan has had higher attrition than a team that has been TRYING TO SHED PLAYERS.
If Ohio State is pulling a 'Bama, there is zero evidence for it here. They have a reasonable number of recruits, and very low attrition.
Penn State, as I mentioned before, is a much older team, and therefore has had a lot more time to lose guys to graduation and leaving early for the NFL and whatnot. In that light, their retention rate is pretty darn good.
Michigan State and OSU ended up with about the same number of recruits on their respective rosters, while Bama was just a bit higher.
Notre Dame's team is much, much younger, hence the high retention rate.
Attrition has generally been higher for the teams with coaching changes in the last few years.
Michigan's 28 scholarship athletes on defense may work on your pre-2005 EA Sports video game (which had a 55-player limit) but is way, way below the competition.
58.33 percent, as it turns out, is in fact quite putrid.

	4*+ Recruits	4*+ Retained	4*+ Ret %
Michigan	26	16	61.54%
Alabama	41	30	73.17%
Michigan State	10	6	60.00%
Penn State	25	18	72.00%
Ohio State	35	27	77.14%
Notre Dame	20	20	100.00%

	3*- Recruits	3*+ Retained	3*+ Ret %
Michigan	22	12	54.55%
Alabama	42	22	52.38%
Michigan State	54	39	72.22%
Penn State	27	22	81.48%
Ohio State	24	19	79.17%
Notre Dame	23	16	69.57%

But this ship can't sink!

She's made of iron, sir! I assure you, she can... and she will. It is a mathematical certainty.

	AVERAGE	Michigan	Alabama	MSU	Notre Dame	Ohio State	Penn State
2005	33.33%	0.00%	36.84%	30.77%	37.50%	54.55%	33.33%
2006	67.95%	63.64%	53.85%	61.11%	90.00%	76.92%	69.23%
2007	77.42%	66.67%	60.00%	90.00%	85.71%	72.73%	100.00%
2008	87.50%	62.50%	85.71%	90.91%	100.00%	81.82%	100.00%
2009	88.24%	90.91%	73.33%	91.67%	100.00%	100.00%	81.82%

You can be blasé about some things, Rose, but not about Titanic

There is still talent here, and will still be talent here.

So...What Happened?

Michigan had generally small recruiting classes
Those defensive recruiting classes were about on par with Penn State anyway, and well below those of Ohio State
Michigan had exceptionally high attrition from its 2005 to 2008 classes.
Attrition disproportionately attacked our higher-rated players.
Attrition disproportionately attacked our older players
Of Michigan's 3-star recruits, a disproportionately few ended up as contributors

	MSU	Ohio State	Alabama	Penn State	Notre Dame	Michigan
6.1	0	1	0	1	1	2
6.0	0	0	2	1	2	1
5.9	1	3	3	6	3	2
5.8	2	9	5	4	6	2
5.7	2	2	3	2	4	2
5.6	3	1	3	2	2	2
5.5	5	5	4	4	0	2
5.4	3	0	0	1	0	0
5.3	0	1	1	0	0	0
5.2	5	1	0	0	0	0
5.1	2	0	0	0	0	0
5.0	1	1	2	1	0	0
Total	24	24	23	22	18	13

Who's to Blame?

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Someone should have recognized the weak depth at safety back when Marlin Jackson had to move there for a season. Lloyd let the positition go unaddressed in recruiting for years, which killed us in 2005 (burning Brandon Harrison's redshirt in the process).
And then he came back with Jonas Mouton and Stevie Brown, two outside linebackers, meaning in the recruiting year immediatly after "Safety Armageddon" we got ZERO defensive backs.
Ron English had (still has) a strange belief that Johnny Sears was a great future cornerback, even after The Horror.

2008's defensive recruiting was a page right out of Notre Dame: a spattering of 4-stars, but no "diamonds in the rough" discovered, no guys brought in for a certain scheme. Two never made it to campus, and a third has been kicked off the team. I have to believe there were enough 3-star speedy defensive backs who would leap at a Michigan offer if we put in the research. The coaching change, and then RR's focus on the (even more depleted) offense didn't allow that to happen.
Shafer. We spent a year with a defensive coordinator who was dismissed at the end of it, meaning we were right back where we started, minus a (rather paltry) graduating class, at the start of 2009

Is There Any Hope?

Bring in lots of fellas. "Pinto" and "Flounder" may look like pretty useless guys, but you never know: one of them might have access to a car that, when modified and matured, will save your whole fraternity.
Keep 'em there. "Bluto" here is a 7th year senior. While the NCAA frowns upon 7th years for guys who aren't Mormon quarterbacks, you can get away with being choosy in your class selection if you can stay true to your mission and keep "Otter" from chasing tail outside your doors, or "Boon" from listening to his girlfriend, or "D-Day" from riding off into the sunset. The young guys are the future of your program but it's the oldest guys who make the house.

Advice for Further Study

fin.

October Spawned A Monster

Brian — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:25:14 +0000

Asexual former Smiths singer Morrissey—he reproduces by budding!—is a schizophrenic, self-parodic man. He once claimed "he didn't need more ammunition" because

I don't dwell on things I'm missing
I'm just pleased with the things that I've found

… on the same album he offered this advice to his former bandmates who successfully sued him …

Don't close your eyes
A man who slits throats
Has time on his hands
And I'm gonna get you
So don't close your eyes
Don't ever close your eyes
You think you've won

He's not to be taken seriously, but pitches himself right in the perfect spot where you so want to, if only at various points in your life where wearing an incredibly fey outfit and doing fey dances in the fey desert near a mushroom-shaped rock seems like a good idea. At emotional ebbs, you can know Morrissey is mocking you, you whinging little prat, and still embrace your whinging pratitude.

So, in that spirit, here's this post. It is asexual and reproduces by budding and isn't supposed to be taken very seriously.

---------------------------------------------

Sleep on and dream of love

Because it's the closest you will
Get to love

Poor twisted child
So ugly, so ugly
The poor twisted child
Oh hug me, oh hug me

One November
Spawned a monster
In the shape of this child

Who later cried :
"But Jesus…

… made me, so
Jesus save me

from pity, sympathy
And people discussing me

A frame of useless limbs

What can make good of
the bad that's been done?"

And if the lights were out
Could you even bear
To kiss her full on the mouth

(Or anywhere?) ohh..no

Poor twisted child
So ugly, so ugly

Poor twisted child
Oh hug me, oh hug me

One November
Spawned a monster
In the shape of this child

Who must remain

A hostage to kindness
And the wheels underneath her
A hostage to the kindness
And the wheels underneath her

A symbol of where mad, mad lovers
Must pause and draw the line.

So sleep and dream of love

Cause it's the closest
You will get to love ohh

Love, that ~~November~~ October
Is a time
Which I must
Put out of my mind

Oh, one fine day
Let it be soon
She won't be rich or beautiful
But she'll be walking your streets
In the clothes that she went out
And chose for herself

Monday Presser Notes: 11-2

Tim — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:46:53 +0000

The press conference started of with a 20-minute presentation about Rich Rodriguez sponsoring a child-safety initiative, which sports writers are apparently supposed to care about. Once the actual football talkin' began, there were a few tidbits.

Injuries: There were no new ones coming out of Illinois, except Greg Banks has sprained his foot. Brandon Minor's injury is expected to limit him through the remainder of the season.
Purdue is probably a better team than their record. They lost a couple of close games early, and they still have a lot of talent and experience. They start 16 seniors. They looked bad against Wisconsin, but that was partially an abnormally bad game for them, as well as a great game played by Wisconsin.
Rich Rodriguez is more impatient than any fan could be about the progress of the team. He thought success might come a little quicker, but when he arrived in Ann Arbor and saw what he had to work with, he knew the process would be a little longer. Building a championship-caliber program will take some time. Michigan has had to play more freshmen than he'd hoped over the past two years, and it's likely that will continue next year as well.
This team has been inconsistent all year, whether it is at home or on the road. The road environment hasn't seemed to rattle the players. They just can't play inconsistently and expect to win. A bad half can't lead to widespread issues across the team.
Players get too tight sometimes, and worry about making mistakes. Brandon Graham is one of the few guys who doesn't do that. He just gets after and plays. Even if he makes a mistake, he is able to play at a high level. Kevin Leach graded out the highest of any Michigan defensive player, but Obi is still in the mix for playing time. Vladimir Emilien is not currently in the mix for more playing time, but he has a chance to be in the near future.
Rodriguez re-thinks the play-calling at the goal line, but only because it's impossible not to.
Mark Ortmann's "punch" was reviewed by Rodriguez with Ortmann. He thinks it was open-hand, and more to push Corey Liuget away than to strike him. There should be no additional punishment for Ortmann. In other offensive line news, Patrick Omameh will probably get more reps this week, as well as Ricky Barnum. Perry Dorrestein has a slight back tweak.
Winning the Purdue game is important for the program. The players deserve a reward game for all of their hard work, and the coaches would really like to have an extra set of practices for preparation for the future.

Donovan Warren

The team needs to stay focused and worry about the upcoming game, rather than the past.
There have been some missed opportunities and guys not playing up to their ability, but they can't overthink. If guys start to underperform or go into a shell, it's up to their teammates to pick them back up.
Warren likes playing press coverage, but the scheme doesn't always call for it. He needs to do what will help the other 10 guys on the field attain success as well (reading between the lines: there aren't any safeties capable of providing deep help, so GERG is hamstrung with what he can ask the corners to do).

Steve Schilling

The first month of the season was good for the offensive line, but they seem to have taken a step back. Not being able to punch in four tries from the 1 yard line was particularly frustrating.
The offensive line has plenty of talent, and they should be able to uphold a high standard despite losing David Molk.
The plane ride back after a loss is pretty depressing. Everyone is frustrated and just wants to get back into the win column.

Brandon Graham

The Purdue game is important because it will clinch a bowl game. In his ongoing "vocal leader" role, Graham's going to explain the importance of the Purdue game to his teammates today. He sometimes plans what he's going to say, but a lot of the time he just lets it flow.
Sometimes guys try to do too much and make plays that aren't their responsibility. When guys don't stay disciplined, that's when the big plays happen for the opponent. The goal line stand may have caused a lot of defensive players to think they needed to step up, but maybe they did more than they were supposed to. It hurt for the offense to be in the red zone so many times and not score touchdowns.
The defense has to keep working to force more turnovers.
This team is different from last year's because everyone is more in tune with the coaches. It will keep improving as everyone buys into the vision next year.

Links for 2009-10-30 [del.icio.us]

Sat, 31 Oct 2009 00:00:00 PDT

Where does the defense go from here?
nowhere, probably
Freshman QBs Through Eight Games: How Does Tate Stack Up Now?
not as awesome as before.
Beilein relies on bonding with players and a demanding schedule
how many hours, Rothstein?!? HOW MANY HOURS?
Puck Daddy chats with Jackets' R.J. Umberger
Q: Will you, as a Buckeye, admit that Michigan has the best-looking hockey helmet in the NCAA? A: Maybe the most recognizable. I don't know about "best looking."

Links for 2009-10-29 [del.icio.us]

Fri, 30 Oct 2009 00:00:00 PDT

Sorry, Jim Harbaugh, But You\'ve Been Out-Crazied This Day
me @ TSB
Building up a program: How Steve Burns and Greg Ryan helped create the new Michigan soccer stadium
mmmm long headline
Eleven things you'll almost definitely hear at Big Ten basketball media day
Bo Ryan can fly now. No, seriously. Seriously.
NCAA to regulate 'incessant flopping' under basket
no circle is stupid, but their hearts are in the right place
Michigan Solar Car Team finishes third again in Australian race
Michigan received a ten minute penalty for pushing.
Michigan women picked last in Big Ten
yipes
Buckeye Football Analysis
seems like a spinoff of the wonky Trojan Football Analysis; useful.
Pat Fitzgerald Wants To Cut A Chicken's Head Off
me @ TSB
Michigan coach John Beilein talking about his team at Big Ten media day
tall
The slant concept: Iowa’s game winner
i do this in NCAA all the time.
Illini Chatrooms throughout History
OleFussnFeathers: I’m on ur landz?

Links for 2009-10-28 [del.icio.us]

Thu, 29 Oct 2009 00:00:00 PDT

Q & A: John Gasaway of Basketball Prospectus (Part One)
no Michigan, but is Wonk you read
NFL Draft notes on Brandon Graham, Brandon Minor, Obi Ezeh
Beast, second-rounder(?), "brutally beaten"

Links for 2009-10-27 [del.icio.us]

Wed, 28 Oct 2009 00:00:00 PDT

Little Brown Jug Lore VI: Is the Greatest Trophy in College Football a Fake?
i'm sending it a notice of inquiry.
Profile for 2010 U of M Commit Jack Campbell
“He's incredibly talented."
What's with the BCS computers' over-the-top Hawkeye love?
why does the blind man date a badger?
Does Mike Slive Have To Choke A Coach?
me @ TSB
A-Paki-Lypse Soon? Adam Robinson Shelved for the Season
I am telling you about Angry Iowa Running Back Hating God. I am telling you.
Catching up with: former Michigan basketball All-American and football player C.J. Kupec
Em, he's from the 70s.
A week in the life of the Michigan Marching Band
Monday: marching. Tuesday: marching. Wednesday: marching. Thursday: armed insurrection in Panama.

Links for 2009-10-26 [del.icio.us]

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 00:00:00 PDT

This Week In Schadenfreude: Oct. 26
me @ TSB
Junior forward Cody Zeller enjoyed his unofficial visit to Michigan
2011 6'9 SF/PF would be a great 4 in Michigan's system.