mgoblog

Links for 2009-12-17 [del.icio.us]

Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:00:00 PST

Falcon Hockey Hooligan
Bowling Green hockey blog for anyone interested
Bring Back the Glory!
another Bowling Green hockey blog. Via Falcon Blog, these guys, which is a Bowling Green football/basketball blog. But they're not in the same league.
'Abused' player backs Leavitt, backs abuse reports into a corner
Leavitt isn't insane and at this point you have to look into Brett McMurphy's reporting.
See No Big Ten, Hear No Big Ten, Speak No Big Ten
Big East ADs are SHIFTY
Notre Dame: We prefer independence
Surprise! "Our strong preference is to remain the way we are."
Rebound Margin Must Die
Wonk hates rebound margin just as much as I hate time of possession. 100% cosign.
don't click here
oh my god, it's full of mass accelerators
Let's All Hope Coaching Turnover Is A Chink In Florida's Armor
me @ TSB
Knight: college hoops lacks integrity
throws a chair at Calipari.

The Ball Goes IN the Hoop, Guys!

Tim — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 00:06:54 +0000

The Michigan basketball team has struggled mightily so far this season, especially given the top-15 expectations that were (probably unfairly) heaped on them in the preseason. With two superstars returning and only two walkons, a backup point guard, and a Canadian leaving the team this was supposed to be a tournament team at the very least, and more likely a Sweet 16 squad.

So, uh, what happened?

There are two primary culprits for Michigan's struggles: defense and three-point shooting. Figuring out the defense is a task for another day (and for someone who knows much more about basketball strategy than I do), but shooting is a little simpler. It's also very important for Michigan, since the Wolverines hoist 42.9% of their shots from behind the arc.

There are two primary factors that play into a shot's likelihood of going in. The first is shot selection. If a player manages to shoot only when he is wide open, it's more likely that he will make those shots, no? Last year at Varsity Blue, I UFRed basketball games, and graded shot selection 1-3 based on how open the shooter was. Manny Harris was the only player who was consistently putting up shots from bad positions, and based on purely anecdotal evidence, I'd say that's probably the case again this season.

The second factor that plays a big role in shooting is the ability to actually knock down shots. If you left Ben Wallace wide open at the top of the key on every play, he wouldn't make many shots (and that's why teams do this). The same is not true for, say, Dirk Nowitzki. Talent is not something that varies from game to game. Players go through hot and cold streaks, but Stu Douglass is as good as he is, and isn't likely to get much better or much worse at shooting the three in one offseason. So is there reason to believe that anyone has shot below his ability so far this year? Sounds like time for a—

Chart?

Chart. Players are sorted by 2008-09 percentage

Michigan 3-Point Percentages
Player	2008-09 %	2009-10 %
Eric Puls	.750	.000
CJ Lee	.365	-
Kelvin Grady	.361	-
David Merritt	.351	-
Zack Novak	.344	.281
Laval Lucas-Perry	.344	.361
Stu Douglass	.335	.231
Anthony Wright	.333	.167
Manny Harris	.327	.289
DeShawn Sims	.317	.375
Zack Gibson	.233	.222
Jevohn Shepherd	.190	-
Matt Vogrich	-	.462
Darius Morris	-	.200

So what does it mean? On the face, it would appear that Michigan lost most of its best shooters, but that isn't actually the case. Puls, Lee, Grady, and Merritt all had few attempts (Manny and the two Indiana guys were the only people to shoot over 100 3-balls, and LLP would have gotten there if he'd played the whole season), so there is something to be said for sample size. The better takeaway is that Only Laval Lucas-Perry and DeShawn Sims are shooting better right now than they did last year, and most guys have seen a precipitous dropoff. It would be nice to get Matt Vogrich more attempts, but his defense has been poor so far this year.

Unless guys are exclusively taking horrible shots this year (and John Beilein said Wednesday that poor shoot selection may play some role in the shooting struggles), the bad shooting is an anomaly. They're sometimes painful to watch, but stick with this team, and things will probably turn around.

EVEN MORE EXPANSIONZZZ

Brian — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 17:57:35 +0000

I give up. All anyone wants to talk about is potential expansion, so more potential expansion bits.

Inside info! Someone close to the Rutgers athletic department says that RU will push hard for Big Ten entrance. Not like that is surprising, but there you go.

No, just no. Sorry, Teddy Greenstein, but…

Don't discount this: the Big 14.
Seriously.

I am discounting it. It is now 100% off for a limited time only, and by "limited time only" I mean "forever." Just because some guy in the Big Ten office says "anything is possible" does not mean that we shouldn't be shocked if a conference that's attempted to expand three times in the last fifteen years only to come up empty all of a sudden adds three teams to become an unwieldy beast of a conference in which you only play about half the teams every year.

Fourteen is ridiculous. The WAC was sixteen for a while until it exploded because at that point you're not a conference but a Thomas Jefferson-style loose confederation. Where is the common sense? Where is it? Is it in Russia? No.

Lloyd != Bo. This is not exactly "to hell with Notre Dame":

"I'd love to see Notre Dame join the Big Ten," Carr said. "I think certainly it would be a great thing for the Big Ten, and I think it would be great for Notre Dame.

"But, of course, they're fighting a lot of tradition there (at Notre Dame)," which has resisted overtures from the Big Ten previously, Carr added.

This, of course, is not happening. Notre Dame people believe that the Big Ten's only desire when it comes to engulfing Notre Dame is to destroy the university and therefore the very soul of America itself, and in this they are correct.

Also no just no. Sporting News colleague Dan Shanoff is a nice man who has a bad habit of coming up with an off-the-wall idea and posting it without running it through even the most cursory sanity check. Witness his suggestion that Navy should be the 12th Big Ten team:

*Academic credentials are impeccable.
*Football program is solid.
*Triple-option is "3 Yards/Cloud" 2.0
*Can keep trad'l games w/ Army, AFA, ND.
*Better than Notre Dame.
*Nearly beat Ohio State this season.
*Non-competitive recruiting strategy.
*But expands B10 footprint in the East.
*Feds could use the BCS bowl revenue.
*It is entirely uncontroversial.

Wrong, debatable, irrelevant, irrelevant, wrong, tiny sample size, irrelevant, wrong, irrelevant, irrelevant. The Big Ten is not a charity. Navy is not an AAU member, does not have any national TV cachet, would not be a compelling reason for local cable operators to carry the Big Ten Network because no one in DC is going to have a riot as long as the Army game is on CBS.

Simply comparing Navy to Pitt and finding that Pitt was better in literally every way other than supporting the troops—why does the Big Ten hate America?—would have shot this down before it worked its way onto the internet and sat there being embarrassing, like if the GEICO money was made out of shots of you picking your nose when you were six.

Yes, yes, Terrance Cody's gravitational pull makes everything revolve around the SEC. Braves & Birds tends to see things through two lenses: World War II and SEC superiority. So in retrospect this was obvious:

I have no doubt that this move is motivated by a major case of SEC envy. Barry Alvarez was probably sitting on his couch for the first weekends of the past two Decembers, watching the #1 and #2 teams in the country play each other in the Georgia Dome and thinking to himself "man, we need something like that." However, what the Big Ten needs is not the game in early December; what it needs is teams of the quality of Florida and Alabama. …

And so, to come full circle, the Big Ten right now reminds me of the Third Reich in the summer of 1944. Germany was about to get hammered in the East by Operation Bagration and in the West by Operation Cobra. Faced with major issue, Hitler decided that the way to win the war was by firing a bevy of V-2 rockets at London. His decision was a classic case of praying for some sort of saving throw the the dice when faced with basic shortcomings.

Did Clay Travis steal B&B's login information? The Big Ten has looked at expansion every five years since Penn State joined; were those all motivated by jealousy of the SEC, too? Did the Big Ten come off championships in 1997 and 2002 only to think to itself "that god damned SEC" and look at expanding the following year? How many rhetorical questions can I stick in one paragraph? Five?

I blame Joe Paterno for this annoying meme floating around. Here's his quote from March:

We go into hiding for six weeks," Paterno said, referring to the hiatus between the end of the Big Ten regular season and the BCS bowls. The other major FBS conferences play into the first weekend of December.

"Everybody else is playing playoffs on television," Paterno said. "You never see a Big Ten team mentioned. So I think that's a handicap."

People forget that Paterno is an 81-year old man who has little say over his own football team, let alone the conference it is in. The Big Ten is pushing its schedule later in 2010. Which is next year. To get increased exposure late in the season, all the Big Ten has to do is play.

This has nothing to do with the SEC except insofar as everything designed to get money is part of the arms race and the only conference that even competes with Big Ten is the SEC. They'll do it if they think it's a good idea; they won't if they don't. The big difference this time around is that Notre Dame seems permanently off the table and Pitt has built itself into an attractive basketball power with accompanying decent football program. B&B then goes off on the league's mediocre coaching as if expansion and hiring Danny Hope are in any way dependent. They are not linked.

Yes, expansion is an attempt to make the league better on and off the field. I can't fathom why this has anything to do with the SEC except insofar as everyone who lives in the South is legally obligated to assume everything is because of the SEC. Clay Travis is writing up a column right now about how the New York Times is holding up health care reform by wasting their time on recruiting hostesses.

Hey, at least it's not just us. This post at Pitt Blather starts off with this sentence…

I really, really, really don’t look forward to 18+ months of mindless speculation over Big 11 expansion.

…which I think we can all agree with. But then it appears that what Pitt Blather wants is speculation about Big East expansion that includes adding Villanova, a I-AA team, and Charlotte, a nonexistent team, instead of Memphis, a team with a billion dollars from FedEx guy.

Welcome. Now give us money. I don't actually know about this but I thought it was interesting. Smart Football's Chris Brown asks about a potential holdup with Team 12 (and team 13, and 14, and 52):

Someone sent me a question regarding whether a new Big 10 member could afford to join, and you seemed like the guy to mention it to.

The concern was whether any potential new Big 10 school could afford to "buy-in" to the BTN. Specifically, he said: "News Corp paid $66M to Big Ten for BTN in '07. Rough numbers put the value today at ~$400M. What school has ~$40M for buy-in?"

According to wikipedia, the member schools own 51% and Fox/News Corp owns 49%. The buy-in would not necessarily be 1/10 the value of the overall entity; it just needs to buy enough shares or units to have 1/12 of the 51%. I don't know how it is structured, but I bet the member schools jointly own an entity which itself owns 51% of the joint BTN venture with News Corp. That way a new school could just buy the units from the other schools, or they could issue new units, such that each school would then own 1/12 of the member schools' portion of the entity. Make sense? If you assume BTN really is worth $400m, that means that a new school would just have to buy 1/12 of the 51%, which comes out to around $17m.

But again, how do we know what the BTN is worth? Mandel threw some revenue figures together but those seem pretty darn loose. And in any event the biggest factor would be what kind of growth rate do you see from the Big 10 Network. I think we both agree the business model is fluctuating.

Finally, my friend made the point that he didn't think a school had that much money. I don't see why an athletic department couldn't borrow that money and then pay it down with future revenues; any school but Notre Dame would undoubtedly have their overall sports revenues increase.

Any thoughts on this? Specifically, whether buying into the BTN would be any kind of hurdle for a new member school? Also let me know if I'm looking at the structure wrong. I don't have any firm info and am just going off some stuff I saw online.

Chris

That would depend on how much the school in question brings to the table. If Notre Dame got really drunk and decided to sign up I doubt the Big Ten would push the issue much since adding them to the network would be a big win. Pitt or Rutgers or whoever might be asked to pay for their slice of the pie.

I don't think that would be a major hurdle since you're really cutting the school in on something with excellent growth potential; the school in question could justify buying in with a section of their general fund since it's an investment that should grow in value.

For the record. One man's list of the five most insane schools proposed for Big Ten expansion:

5. Iowa State. Yes, their athletic programs are that historically bad that a land-grant university in the geographic footprint makes this list.

LOOK AT THIS

END OF STORY

At this rate by the end of these 18 months I'm going to be guest-posting trash talk about Iowa State on BHGP.

4. Toronto. Only mentioned because it's in the AAU and Toronto is so starved for entertainment that they'll sell out MLS games. Problems: the pilot program for NCAA induction of a few Universities only applies to D-II and will get a few schools out West in within ten years, Toronto doesn't play American football, and Michigan State would have to forfeit all its games there because Canada wouldn't let them into the country.

3. Navy. Previously discussed.

2. Cornell. Cornell is an Ivy-league school without a I-A football program. And yet…

1. Rice. It's got all the downsides of Texas combined with all the downsides of Iowa State. Its only asset is that its band integrated e^x during the Rice-Michigan game a while back just so they could spell "sex" in front of 110,000 people.

Links for 2009-12-16 [del.icio.us]

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 00:00:00 PST

Butch Jones to be Cincinnati Bearcats' next football coach
CMU looking now... would they go with another RR protege in Magee?
Sources: WVU's Doc Holliday heading to Marshal
big win for M since Holliday was WVU's ace Florida recruiter; this just about seals Richard Ash.
Arrelious Benn to enter draft, sources say
obvious.
All-Decade Team: Vote for the best offensive lineman
Vote for Jake Long if you sincerely believe he deserves it.
At Least One School Is Super Enthusiastic About Big Ten Expansion
Notre Dame! No, not really. me @ TSB
Big Ten's 12th? Why Not Navy?
because it's a service academy that would be a net money drain and isn't in the AAU, you silly person you.

Hello: Richard Ash

Brian — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 23:21:55 +0000

According to a text he sent to Tom VanHaaren, FL DT Richard Ash has committed to Michigan. Ash is a Pahokee kid, the fourth to sign on with Michigan in three years, and either a three-tech DT (ie: Ryan Van Bergen) or a strongside defensive end.

Early in the recruiting year he had a ton of tres impressive offers—Florida, Miami, USC—but his options dwindled as those schools filled up. He committed to West Virginia just a couple weeks ago, but that was always shaky and Doc Holliday's departure to become Marshall's head coach was the final nail in their coffin.

More informative update on its way.

Defensive tackle lovers, rejoice! Michigan has extended the Pahokee pipeline into the Class of 2010 (Martavious Odoms was the '08 representative, and Vincent Smith and Brandin Hawthorne hailed from the Muck in the 2009 class) by convincing FL DT Richard Ash to switch his commitment from West Virginia to the Wolverines.

GURU RATINGS

Scout	Rivals	ESPN
3*, #48 DT	4*, #24 DT	3*, 77, #52 DT

The three sites don't quite agree on what they think of Ash's ability, and Rivals is definitely the outlier, as they give him 4 stars and say he's the 24th-best DT in the class. ESPN's evaluation:

Ash moves around the defensive line in high school and at this point he is a bit of a 'tweener between the tackle and end spot. He could start off in college as a defensive end, but in the long run we think he projects as a defensive tackle or...

Not too much evaluation of his ability, but rather just his eventual position. Scout lets Richard talk about his strengths and weaknesses:

“I’m quick off the ball. I have a good first step and have great hands. I use them good and have great technique. I like to play quick and fast.

“I want to run better and get faster in the forty. I’d like to be more explosive because that would help me get more sacks.”

So he's quick (understandable for a smaller DT), and claims to have good technique. He needs to get into better shape, from the sounds of things. Not sure how he can reconcile "I am quick" with "I need to get more explosive," but whateva. His coach, the improbably-named Blaze Thompson, praises his work ethic and athleticism.

Long story short: He's a moderate prospect with more upside (he's only played football since 9th grade) than immediate potential.

Update: duplicate effort here, but I've got some other quotes to throw in:

Ash was an obvious D-I prospect early; when he showed up at the Miami Nike camp Rivals' Barry Every praised his "great body structure and really long arms," calling him "easily the best-looking interior defensive lineman physically in the camp."

In June, the Miami Herald ranked him a meh 90th in the state, saying:

90. Richard Ash, DT, 6-3, 265, Pahokee: After a solid junior season, this gifted athlete continues to make a lasting impression this spring. Talking with college coaches, they just love his quickness, strength and knowledge of the game. Plays the run very well and knows how to penetrate the backfield. Has steadily become a major force for one of the premier teams in the state of Florida.

The Orlando Sentinel, on the other hand, had him the third best defensive lineman in the state and declared his "great speed" made him "special."

Ash went to Florida's camp and didn't do so well. This is from SoFlaFootball's Luke Stampini:

No one seems to know for sure [about Ash and UF], a lot of speculation. Some say UF has cooled on him, but I can't find a straight answer.

He came to UF's camp out of shape and tested poorly in the 40 and vert. He performed well in 1-on-1's, but certainly not to the level of Ronald Powell (All-World DE from Cali).

This is a theory that one Richard Ash also supports:

"I've been hearing things that Florida doesn't want me after I tested at camp because of my 40 and my vertical," Ash told GatorBait.net. "I did good in the one-on-ones but I guess the 40 and vertical lowered me on Florida's scale. … They didn't like me as much after camp. That's what I've been hearing."

Somewhat oddly, the USC offer came after the meh camp performances. Later, Stampini would follow up on that in response to a West Virginia fan:

I doubt [WVU pulled its offer]. Florida did for some reason (most believe poor 40 and vert at camp), but UF has had some screwy recruitments that I think will come back and haunt them.

Then FSU came out and said they dropped Richard as well, but it was interesting timing coming a day after Richard basically said he would not be going to FSU in an interview.

LSU and USC Trojans appear to want Ash to commit, and I thought WVU was in Ash's top 4 with USF also.

One defensive coach I've talked to loves the fact Ash has a good frame to add weight, long arms, moves very well for his size, is 16 yrs old still, and is from Pahokee. He feels he can take those characteristics, coach him up a couple years and have an All-Conference caliber player.

And a final scouting report from Stampini:

Well Florida and FSU offered him. UF really wanted him to commit early, but he went and worked out at their camp tested poorly, performed average and the Gators dropped him. Before that Ash did an article stating he wasn't going to FSU (for whatever reason he never liked them) and the next day it comes out FSU was no longer recruiting him.

Now Ash has all the physical tools to be extremely good, but it his motivation has come into question. If someone can get in his head to work hard, get in shape, go all out every snap, he could get paid to play the game. Sometimes lighting a fire under someones rear is easier said than done though. Another issue with Ash (and most of those Pahokee lineman) is his play did not improve from his JR year to SR year like most prospects.

So… yeah, the rollercoaster was understandable.

OFFERS

At one point Ash's offer list stacked up with anyone's. As early as May, when his stock was "exploding," he had 14 offers, some of them major. In June, Florida had offered and led. In early July, USC offered and moved into the lead. Plus when he committed the first time around he mentioned offers from Michigan, LSU, Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Tennessee, South Carolina, and UCLA plus a bunch of others. An absolute ton of schools were after this guy.

The weird bit is that when Ash committed these were the schools in his final five other than West Virginia:

The 6-foot-4, 265-pound defensive tackle also listed USC, Rutgers, Minnesota and South Florida as three schools he was seriously interested in.

What a bizarre list. USC plus three schools that are Lilliputian recruiters relative to the Trojans. And no Michigan, the school he would commit to in two weeks.

So what happened? It appeared a bunch of schools cooled off on Ash after some uninspiring camp performances. By September, Ash was reporting that USC offer but mentioning that he hadn't heard from them in a while. Florida turned off their interest more explicitly, as Stampini detailed above.

The UCLA interest was sincere and persistent, as he went on an official there. LSU brought him in for the Florida game, too, and West Virginia and Michigan were both hot after him. So not everyone was turned off, just the two programs who can basically pick and choose perfect prospects all day.

STATS

His high school stats weren't explosive but this is a defensive tackle. Junior:

Ash had 80 tackles, seven for loss, four sacks, and one interception.

FAKE 40 TIME

All three recruiting sites have Ash listed in the 4.85 to 4.9 range, so there's some internal consistency at least. That's a believable time for a defensive end, but since Ash is expected to move to tackle, and admits he wants to work on his speed, it's worthy of two FAKEs out of five.

VIDEO

Ash is a defensive tackle, and therefore doesn't have any fil... wha? Here's the Richard Ash highlight reel:

There are also some impressive senior highlights, but I can't embed them.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Ash is not an immediate-impact type, and with Michigan's current depth on the defensive line, he won't be pushed into duty as a true freshman. A redshirt is in order to bulk up for the defensive tackle position or get into shape to be a big defensive end for 3-man fronts. Whichever position the coaches decide to let him play, he'll need a year under the strength and conditioning program to be ready to make contributions.

Ash is a boom-or-bust prospect. The up-and-down recruiting saga indicates a player with outstanding natural talent but some motivation and work ethic issues that USC and Florida don't have to take chances on. Thus the offers that ended up retracted. (The Florida State issue just appeared to be Ash not having much interest.)

Hopefully at Michigan he'll be more boom than bust, as he'll be around three other Pahokee kids who seem to be extremely hard workers—Odoms, at least, works like a dog on the field—and under the tutelage of Mike Barwis. If you end up at Michigan, you're going to end up working hard. He's also young for his grade, as Stampini mentions above, which gives him yet more upside. There's always a chance any prospect washes out entirely and Ash is farther away from his ceiling than really high-level prospects, but that ceiling appears to be about the same. If he puts in the work, he can be an all-conference player.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Michigan now has two three-tech defensive tackles (ie, RVBs) committed with OH DT Terrance Talbott the other. That meets a major need since Van Bergen is coming up on his junior year and the only other player on the depth chart is fifth-year senior Greg Banks. Assuming that these guys don't decommit a la Dequinta Jones and Pearlie Graves last year, Michigan will have filled that spot with a couple of slightly undersized guys who will probably take a redshirt—Banks gives Michigan that luxury—and then start a long war to be the nominal starter once Van Bergen graduates.

Since MI DT Jonathan Hankins plays the nose, he is still an option.

Etc.: Maybe Ash ended up not committing to USC because he watched The Day After Tomorrow too much?

“I was worried cause they say they have earthquakes, mudslides and wildfires.”

How do any of those differed from riding out a hurricane in Florida?

“Oh, see that’s something I’m used to, I ain’t ever experienced an earthquake,” said a laughing Ash.

This Is Your Final Warning: Consume

Brian — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:31:20 +0000

Christmas is in nine days and you haven't purchased an MGoShirt for your fish, you terrible person, you. Imagine how cold your fish are going to be on Christmas morning when you gather around the tree to open your presents or flop around in an terrifying, airless, alien environment. As the light dims in their eyes all they will be able to think about is how their death could express disdain for the state of Ohio…

…IN FABULOUS AMERICAN APPAREL!!!

Woo! The following shirts are now available in luxuriously soft, eco-friendly, creepily-modeled American Apparel sizes from XXL to XS:

Still in effect: free shipping on orders over $50 and 20% off all this month. Hail and Biff eating the mascots are also available as hoodies. Consume!

Wednesday Recruitin'

Tim — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:42:36 +0000

Short Update this week, as the recruiting class is getting wrapped up in short order. All updates can be found on the Michigan Football Recruiting Board. Next week's update will probably be of the "class overview" variety. After that, the focus is very likely to shift to the 2011 class.

One Of The Best Defense... Plays

For those who live under a rock, the heading references the gentlelady from Florida.

MD LB Josh Furman will announce his decision this Saturday at the Maryland Crab Bowl. He went on the local television sets to talk about the bowl itself, as well as his college decision and the extraordinary season he had at Old Mill this year. Furman's decision, between UM and Virginia Tech, is expected to go in favor of the Wolverines. He announces on the 19th.

Although FL DT Richard Ash committed to West Virginia just a couple weeks ago, he visited Michigan the weekend of the 4th, and now Sam Webb has said on WTKA that he has a "strong gut feeling" that Ash will switch that commitment to the Wolverines. For those who don't regularly listen to the Recruiting Roundup (and I know it's become a lot more difficult since the WTKA website has been having technical issues for a couple weeks now), that means Sam has been told that this will happen, and it's not merely a guess.

Michigan will receive a visit from FL CB/S Rashad Knight later this winter ($, info in header). Knight was originally slated to visit for the Ohio State game, but missed his flight.

[editor jump-in]

A commitment from Ash coupled with the presumed silent commitments from Grimes, Murphy, and Furman would bring Michigan to 27 members of the class, leaving one slot open for any of the various players listing Michigan—CA S Sean Parker, CA LB Tony Jefferson, MI DT Jonathan Hankins, TX DT "Big Tex" Beachum, etc—unless there's a decommitment or a kid who is far enough away from qualifying that Michigan pulls a scholarship offer. Of those players, Hankins has seems the most likely but is currently rotating like a pulsar, having declared Florida his leader and then suggesting that commitments to Michigan and then Ohio State were imminent.

Jefferson is supposed to be a package deal with CA WR Kenny Stills and has dropped Florida, leaving both players considering Oklahoma and Michigan, with Oklahoma the favorite. No one really knows what Parker's up to.

[/editor]

Safetytown

For those worried about losing the commitment of LA S Carvin Johnson should an offer come from LSU, mgoblog recruiting guru TomVH provides a little peace of mind:

#Michigan commit Carvin Johnson told me LSU has not offered, and an offer from them would not change his commitment to Michigan.

Though Carvin's Rummel team failed to take home the State Championship this weekend, he was still named the game's MVP.

In other "committed safety championship game" news, Ray Vinopal comes in for some high praise from the coach of Columbus St. Francis DeSales, which dropped the Ohio State Championship to Vinopal's Cardinal Mooney team:

"Playing for Mooney, you know you're going to see kids that are disciplined, smart and technically sound, but you add in this kid's abilities and you really have something special," said Wiggins, who coached U-M's Patrick Omameh.

"You want to talk about a kid that can flat out run, though - Vinopal was probably the fastest kid we played against all season, and we had a very competitive schedule.

This goes right along with everything we've heard about Vinopal: well-coached, mentally ready to play the game. However, it also touts something that isn't usually praised, which is Vinopal's physical ability. Braylon Heard, Cardinal Mooney's feature back, is a West Virginia commit oft-praised for his speed, and DeSales also played a number of other guys with HIGHLY ACCURATE and not at all FAKE 40 times in the 4.4 range on Rivals. Very interesting point there, if it's not just lip service from Wiggins (which it may very well be). So far in this article we are seriously lacking white guy adjectives, though, right?

"He's tough and gritty - just a tremendous player."

Ah, that's more like it.

2011

NC LB Kris Frost, a likely 4-star prospect in the 2011 class, is hearing from Michigan already.

"He's an energy ball," Butler quarterback Christian LeMay said. "He's always ready to play, ready to practice. I can't say enough about him. He's a piece of the heart of this team. He leads our defense."

I've added Frost to the 2011 Michigan Football Recruiting Board. (He's pictured at right, courtesy the Charlotte Observer's David T. Foster).

NY QB Ashton Broyld is getting attention from some schools as a linebacker, but he wants to play QB in college. Michigan is one of the schools that's talking to him (he was a 2009 summer camper), and he might be a good prospect for Michigan, if they can't get a top-top guy (i.e. Frost's teammate Lemay). That would give them a QB in the 2001 class, but leave open the door for an elite 2012 guy. For a little more on Broyld, check out his junior highlight film.

Etc.

Is Michigan back in the game for OH S Latwan Anderson? I'll believe it when he visits. Michigan is showing interest in FL LB Darrin Kitchens. If that interest continues, I'll add him to the board next week. AnnArbor.com fluff on WI P Commit Will Hagerup. More talking about early enrollees. The list is no different than last time we talked about it. Everyone at the Shrine Bowl seems to think SC QB commit Conelius Jones is destined for wideout in college.

Unverified Voracity Enjoys The Lamentation Of Your Women

Brian — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:23:05 +0000

The lamentation of your women.

via user chunkums

He loves it. The lamentation.

All American. I'm pleasantly surprised that both recruiting networks named Brandon Graham to their All-America teams after he was snubbed by the first of the infinite lists that came out—FWAA or something. Graham and Zoltan the Inconceivable also feature on the AP's second team, which is nice. Zoltan got the second team nod at Scout, too.

This Drew Butler kid who stole first team honors and the Ray Guy award… well… probably deserved it. Before you stone me to death—a fate I willingly accept for such heresy—please let me note that Butler averaged almost 49(!) yards a kick and Georgia led the country with a 42.8 yard net average.

Expansion bits. Various notes and errata on possible expansion:

Sentiment is running strongly against a move to the Big Ten at Syracuse blog Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician with 56% opposed to a move versus just 19% in favor. In the comments the most commonly cited reason is John Boeheim, who is credited with assembling the Big East with his bare hands and would instantly quit if he had to play in a different sandbox.
BHGP points out that the BFD with the CIC is post-grad Research I stuff, not necessarily undergraduate education, which Big Ten schools are supposed to look at as a necessary evil.
Missouri's chancellor said MU would "listen" to the Big Ten should it come calling, so they will at least flirt with a Big 12 departure.

The useful comment thread from the Grid of Judgment has these additional bits of information:

Pitt's got a monster endowment: $2.334 billion, according to unnecessarily precise poster Don. That's more than anyone in the league except Northwestern and Michigan.
Multiple posters suggest that Nebraska is seriously pissed off you guys about Texas's reign as supreme unquestioned ruler of the Big 12 and could really give a crap about the rest of the league save for Colorado. Oklahoma already rotates off their schedule.
Rutgers is apparently a mediocre school on the decline, which explains why there are so many kids from Jersey at Michigan.

And any thread on expansion comes with an increasingly preposterous series of candidate schools that make sense in no way whatsoever: Texas A&M, TCU, Toronto, Vanderbilt, Virginia, Auburn, Rice—seriously, someone suggested Rice—etc.

Virginia Tech seems plausible at first blush but after UVA fought tooth and nail to get them into the ACC lest the governor get out his pimp hand a jump to the Big Ten seems wildly improbable. They would probably be more willing to jump than any other ACC team since they could give a crap about basketball and don't have longstanding rivalries with anyone in the league. Last time I brought this up I mentioned Boston College as a crazy off-board option, and I guess they remain one. They bring a huge market with them but one that is slightly busy with other things, and they don't fit the Big Ten's huge public research university model. They would get tripped up by the Research One thing.

Pitt still looks like the strongest candidate by far. For people wondering about money, remember that Pitt can be slightly less marketable than the Big Ten average—which I don't think they are given their currently monstrous basketball program—and still be a major asset because of the championship game and increased profitability from the Big Ten Network.

As far as divisions go, there's no way to make them work geographically without turning into a version of the Big 12 on steroids by chucking Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State into the same division. You also can't keep all the rivalries together if Pitt is indeed the pick. You try to split this into six team divisions:

Michigan-OSU-MSU
Iowa-Wisconsin-Minnesota
PSU-Pitt
Illinois-Northwestern
Indiana-Purdue

Can't be done without murdering one traditional rivalry or the entire point of putting Pitt in the conference. Missouri is much easier, since you just throw them in with Illinois and Northwestern and put them in the Michigan pod.

I'd prefer an expanded status quo with a ninth conference game, guaranteed rivalry pairs, and a couple byes but apparently you have to have two divisions to have a title game, which is inane but true.

Heismens of all varieties. So the actual Heisman went to a good running back on an undefeated team instead of, you know, the best player in the country. Or even the best running back. A lot of this can be ascribed to the Heisman's bloated list of voters and their lack of accountability. I mean, seriously, here's a guy with a Heisman vote whose ballot read Ingram, Tebow, McCoy:

I never saw Gerhart play an entire game (we work all day Saturday and Saturday night) and only saw a few minutes of Suh’s game against Texas. I refused to vote for somebody based on highlights.

Facepalm!

I'm impressed that this guy managed to spin his ignorance into a principled stance against voting "based on highlights" instead of taking a principled stand against voting based on the three football games he saw this year.

So hurrah for the Sports Blog Heisman coming out approximately correct by handing Toby Gerhart the trophy over Ndamukong Suh by one point. Here's guessing that everyone who voted saw Gerhart and Suh for at least one game. Not that bloggers are perfect. A few years ago when Rakes of Mallow was running its now-defunct version of the same thing, the winner was Hawaii quarterback Colt Brennan, which ugh.

Of course. Here's Fielding Yost curling in a silly hat:

That is all. More pictures of Yost, none of them nearly so ridiculous, at MVictors.

Etc.: Corwin Brown is out at Notre Dame. If there is an opening on the coaching staff, could he fill it? He doesn't coach LBs, unfortunately, but has slayed on the recruiting trail. Wonk asks "What Happened to Michigan?"

Links for 2009-12-15 [del.icio.us]

Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:00:00 PST

A Peek Inside the USA World Cup Bid Committee Meeting
...Henry Kissinger?!
Jason Botterill: From the Ice to Risk to the Front Office
official fluff
Brandon Minor undergoes rotator cuff surgery
just six more and he'lll be ready for the NFL combine!
Five Reasons Syracuse Won't Go To The Big Ten
pretty convincing.
Five Reasons Syracuse Will Go To The Big Ten
wait, what?
Michigan, athletic director Bill Martin 'open-minded' about Big Ten expansion
hottt
Hoops implications of Big Ten expansion
Big Ten ex-Wonk says expand away.
Red Berenson staying young at Michigan
he's old! he's young! woo!
Not Available in Stores
you can buy this stuff for a lot of money.

Big Ten Expansion: Grid Of Judgment

Brian — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:57:22 +0000

The Crimson Quarry has an excellent post running down candidates in detail that sections of this post are derived from.

The Fringe

Schools that have been brought up at one time or another but are not worth a fuller discussion for various reasons.

Schools that would say no

Texas. Blame those Texas newspaper articles describing UT's flirtation with the Big Ten after the SWC exploded, but Texas comes up whenever this topic does. Despite the travel involved the Big Ten would do that in a heartbeat; Texas is a fantastic school that opens up copious television markets and is a national power in both football and basketball.

Texas would not, though. They are the master and commander of an entire conference with weak revenue sharing relative to the Big Ten. They have longstanding rivalries with virtually everyone in the Big 12 South. And their nationally competitive baseball program would be badly hurt by joining what's basically a mid-major conference.

Nebraska. Massive football tradition and geographically somewhat feasible but there's no way the Cornhuskers would give up a 100 years of rivalries for the Big Ten. Have no links to anyone in the conference.

Notre Dame. If the Big Ten is doing this when Notre Dame's NBC contract has six years to run, the Irish are not in the mix.

Schools that don't offer enough

Iowa State. Why on earth would anyone want Iowa State in their conference? No TV market and no success in either major sport. If Iowa doesn't want them, and I'm sure they don't, why would anyone else?

West Virginia. Tier III institution would probably get rejected by the presidents. Good programs in football and basketball but brings zero recruiting base and zero television market. If the only considerations were on-field performance they'd be the obvious #1 choice but all their peripherals are poor.

Cincinnati. Legitimate traditional basketball power (two national titles in the 60s to go with the Huggins era) and nouveau riche football school, but probably destined for a major drop with Brian Kelly out the door. Academically, a non-starter: it's a tier III commuter school.

Louisville. Geographically and athletically plausible but a tier III institution.

Prime Candidates

Rutgers. Hypothetically brings New Jersey and New York markets into play, except few really care about Rutgers when they're not good and they've rarely been good. Very rarely. Basketball program a nonentity; football was a nationwide punchline until the arrival of Greg Schiano, at which point they've had one standout year and a bunch of middling ones that end in nondescript bowl games.

Missouri. Geographically adjacent and has longstanding, if on-and-off, rivalry with Illinois. Good, not great, state school that would be the worst-ranked school in the league but not by much, especially after a post-CIC bump. Brings a new, large TV market into play. Also brings Don Draper with it.

Negatives: neither football or basketball is the sort of program that brings any wow factor, though the football program is a solid and developing one under Gary Pinkel. And Mizzou has been in the Big 8/12 since its inception. Fevered rivalry with Kansas and the sort of non-rivalry with Nebraska that saw Mizzou on the end of dozens of heinous beatings to the point where if Pinkel hadn't run up the score in the final year of Callahan he would have taken he would have taken heat for it.

Would Mizzou go? I mentioned them on the radio yesterday, at which point someone who grew up in the area called in to cast doubt on the possibility the Tigers would even consider leaving the Big 12. He certainly knows better than I do. On the other hand, some Mizzou folks have started a pro-Big Ten blog and the Rock M Nation thread discussing BHGP's discussion of a potential move is split down the middle. The local paper's Mizzou beatwriter, however, is adamant:

RT @Kevin_Baum What's your take on mizzou's chances of joining the big 10? ... To quote Dean Wormer, Zero Point Zero

I don't know. I expect that Mizzou would at least flirt with the Big Ten in an effort to get the Big 12's revenue sharing increased.

Pitt. Obvious natural rivalry with Penn State that makes the Nittany Lions less of an odd duck in the league both geographically and culturally. Brings another TV market, though Pittsburgh is an area that already gets the BTN. Rich tradition in football and has been intermittently decent over the last decade; basketball program has recently built itself into a national power but has little in the way of history.

Scholastically Pitt would be an average Big Ten team, which is very strong relative to other serious candidates. And there's no question whether they would jump or not: Pitt would kill to get in the Big Ten. They'd get to play Penn State, they'd get a ton more football revenue, the basketball would be fine, and they could play WVU out of conference.

Negatives: they play in a sterile NFL stadium that's usually half-empty, though a Big Ten fan with road-trip inclinations could view that as a positive. And adding Mizzou or Syracuse or whatever puts another state in the BTN footprint; Pittsburgh doesn't. And you could see this hurting Big Ten schools' Pittsburgh-area recruiting. Now players in the area can pick between the Big Ten or staying close to home; in the future they can have both.

Syracuse. Geographically somewhat awkward; football program has totally imploded since Paul Pasqualoni fell off. On the other hand, an excellent school (almost exactly on par with Pitt) with a powerhouse basketball program. Their location is a blessing and a curse: it's far away but also makes the Big Ten considerably more important in New York (state, not City).

Syracuse might like it in the Big East enough to shoot down an overture, though. They're decidedly more eastern than a lot of Big East schools.

Chart?

Grid! Grid of judgment!

A legend: teams are graded on a 3 point scale, where 0 is ~~uncatchable~~ a factor so poor it disqualifies the program in question, 1 is is an active detriment, 2 is "meh", and 3 is a positive. The "average" column does not include "willingness," since it's an attempt to judge the attractiveness of the teams only.

"Other sports" rankings derived from Director's Cup standings.

School	Willingness	Academics	FB	BB	Other	Loc	Market	Footprint	Avg.
Texas	0	3	3	3	3	1	3	3	2.7
Nebraska	0	1	3	1	2	1	1	1	1.4
Notre Dame	0	3	3	2	3	3	3	3	2.9
Maryland	1	2	1	3	3	1	2	2	2.0
Iowa State	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0.7
West Virginia	3	0	3	3	2	3	0	1	1.7
Cincinnati	3	0	2	3	1	3	1	1	1.6
Louisville	3	0	1	3	2	3	2	3	2.0
Rutgers	3	2	1	1	1	1	3	3	1.7
Syracuse	2	3	1	3	1	1	2	2	1.9
Pitt	3	3	2	3	1	3	2	2	2.3
Missouri	1	1	2	1	3	3	3	3	2.3

Your winners amongst the even distantly feasible: Pitt and Missouri, and Missouri is only distantly feasible. Both are clearly poor options relative to Notre Dame, but that ain't happening. Your projected 12th Big Ten school: Pitt.

Holy Crap: Big Ten Expansion For Serious

Brian — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:23:47 +0000

I got a couple requests in the inbox for a take on Big Ten expansion after Barry Alvarez made a comment the other day about the Big Ten adding that elusive twelfth team. On the assumption that Alvarez was just making an idle statement and expansion was a distant possibility at best, I was going to dig up the post I made two years ago detailing pros and cons of various candidate schools and leave it at that.

But it appears that Alvarez was not just idly speculating:

It has been 19 years since the Big Ten expanded to 11 teams, and it appears the conference is ready to seriously explore moving to an even dozen.

Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany was expected to release a statement later Tuesday to say the conference is ready to consider the addition of a 12th team.

That would be in about half an hour. It's time to update the above list, which I am in the process of doing right now.

Friday Night Lights 2009: 12-15

Tim — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 19:13:18 +0000

If you can help out finding articles on any of the commits, e-mail me, and I'll try to include your contribution. This should be one of the last couple updates, since every current commit's season has now finished.

LA Slot WR Drew Dileo

Last week: Pregame fluff. #2. Parkview loses to Notre Dame 14-7 in the State Championship game.

But on first-and-down from the Notre Dame 29, Dileo was hit on a short run, lost the football and Luke Bourgeois recovered. “We killed ourselves in the first half,” said Dileo, a Michigan commitment. “Just little things. We preach every week about the little things.”

But four plays later, on fourth-and-2, Dileo — the holder for what appeared to be a 33-yard field goal try — kept on a fake and was greeted by a wall of defenders for a 1-yard loss.

Oopppppppps. Article #2:

Michigan commitment Drew Dileo was limited to five carries for five yards and five receptions for 30 yards.

This week: Parkview Baptist (12-2) has finished its season as the state Runner-up. The chart below is a little messy, but the Total numbers in the last row are correct season totals.

Drew Dileo 2009
		Rushing				Receiving
Game	Result	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
Christian Life	W 60-14					1	50	1	50.00
Arcadiana	W 31-14	14	77	0	5.50	1	35	1	35.00
Church Point	W 54-0					2	40	1	20.00
Port Allen	W 32-7	11	65	0	5.91	3	92	2	30.67
Dutchtown	L 15-24	13	24	1	1.85	3	32	0	10.67
Northeast	W 41-27	7	44	1	6.29	1	18	1	18.00
West Feliciana	W 23-7		50	1
Baker	W 35-0	5	36	1	7.20	0	0	0	-
Redemptorist	W 44-27			1
Regular Season	(8-1)	50	246+	5	4.92	11	267	6	24.27
Marksville	W 40-8	5	68	1	13.60	3	74	1	24.67
Crowley	W 38-16			1		5	87	0	17.40
Patterson	W 33-21		114	1		1	23	0	23.00
White	W 42-0		37	1
Notre Dame	L 7-14	5	5	0	1.00	5	30	0	6.00
Playoffs	Runner Up	5+	68+	4	13.60	14	214	1	12.23
Totals	(12-2)	114	724	10	6.35	20+	571	7	22.55

LA S Carvin Johnson

Last week: Pregame fluff:

Johnson, who is bound for Michigan, said he welcomes the week-to-week burden of a defense that ofttimes has to produce points and a short field for a struggling offense. “I would do it all over again,” Johnson said. “I don’t mind. We have understood our role since the beginning of the season.”

Preview fluff #2:

The heart and soul of the Rummel team is senior safety Carvin Johnson, a commitment to Michigan. Johnson has seven interceptions and two punt returns for touchdowns. “Carvin Johnson has been terrific. He is hardly coming off the field, playing safety, wide receiver, returning punts and returning kickoffs. We have done it in the past with guys like Craig Steltz, Terrance Dunbar, Nick Child in the playoffs, using our best athletes on both sides of the football,” Roth said.

Rummel falls to West Monroe 30-0 in the State Championship game. Johnson had 1 carry for -6 yards. Postgame coach reaction.

This week: Rummel (14-1) Finishes as State Runners-up.

Carvin Johnson 2009
		Defense
Game	Result	Int	Tackle	Sack
Bourgeois	W 26-0	1		1
Mandeville	W 14-10	0
Fontainebleau	W 17-3	0
East St. John	W 20-14	0
OP Walker	W 23-0	1
Brother Martin	W 13-7	0
Jesuit	W 21-14	1
Barbe	W 24-21	0
St. Augustine	W 7-6	1
Archbishop Shaw	W 18-17	0
Regular Season	(10-0)	4	56	1+
Captain Shreve	W 10-3	2	2+	2
Jesuit	W 14-7	1	7	0
Hahnville	W 24-7
Westgate	W 7-6
West Monroe	L 0-30
Playoffs	Runner Up	3	9+	2
Totals	(14-1)	7	65+	3+

Seasons Complete

MI WR Jeremy Jackson

Jackson participated in the Hawaii-Mainland bowl, with the Mainland coming away the 26-6 victors. Jackson had 1 reception for 38 yards.

PA DE Kenny Wilkins

His high school's coach was fired after the poor season.

OH S Ray Vinopal

Cardinal Mooney went undefeated and won the state championship. Vinopal's season stats, via Mooneyfootball.com:

Ray Vinopal 2009
		Rushing				Other
Game	Result	Rush	Yds	TD	Avg	DefTD	PRTD	Blk	RecTD
Boardman	W 23-17
DeSales	W 21-14			0
Elyria Catholic	W 49-20			2
Harding	W 31-6	8	87	0	10.88
Lake Catholic	W 42-21	8	129	2	16.13
St. Francis	W 55-7	8	91	1	11.38
Benedictine	W 42-7	6	59	0	9.83	1	1
St. Vincent-St. Mary	W 34-9	6	41	0	6.83			1
Ursuline	W 27-22	6	59	0	9.83
Watterson	W 28-12	6	58	0	9.67				1
Regular Season	(10-0)	48	524	5	10.92
Mogadore Field	W 42-14	6	87	1	14.50
Hubbard	W 55-0	6	55	1	9.17
Poland Seminary	W 24-7	8	35	0	4.38
Steubenville	W 45-7	8	70	1	8.75
DeSales	W 35-7	7	75	1	10.71
Playoffs	State Champs	35	322	4	9.20
Totals	(15-0)	83	846	9	10.19	1	1	1	1

PA CB Cullen Christian

Cullen was 1st-team All-conference at defensive back, and an honorable mention at receiver.

WI P Will Hagerup

Whitefish Bay (5-5) has completed its season after a first-round playoff loss. Bob Parker hooked me up with season stats for Will, who was 1st-team All-State as a punter:

Will Hagerup 2009
		Punting					Receiving
Game	Result	Punts	Avg.	Hang	Pooch	In20	Rec	Yds	TD	Avg
Regular Season	(5-4)	20	42.90	4.34 sec	7	7
Playoffs	1st Round	2	52.00	4.39 sec	0	0
Totals	(5-5)	22	43.73	4.34	7	7	15	187	1	12.47

Take This Survey For The Naked Man

Brian — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:39:44 +0000

Hey. Remember last April Fool's Day when the banner on this site mysteriously changed to this guy?

Toby Hopp is the guy who sent that banner in. So you owe him. He's a grad student at SDSU studying user-generated content and he's got a survey for you. You should take it, because it will help him out.

----------------------------

My name is Toby Hopp and I’m a longtime college sports blogger/blog reader. I’m also a graduate communications student at San Diego State University who is interested in studying how and why Internet users generate content online. What precisely, you may be asking, is “user-generated content?” Well, “user-generated content” includes comment sections at the end of news/blog articles, messageboards, diaries, polls, and the like.

To me, one of the great parts of the blogosphere is the interaction it enables between readers. As a community, we’re able to provide feedback and discuss issues in real time. However, the concept of “user-generated content” and its subsequent social applications has not, at this point, been thoroughly studied by communications researchers and is, in my estimation, completely misunderstood by the mass media.

So, if you have 10-15 minutes to spare and support empirical media research (and the social sciences in general), please click the survey link below. Even if you NEVER create/read content on blog or newspaper websites, PLEASE consider taking the survey as your answers are as important to me as the answers supplied by individuals who DO regularly create content. Rest assured that all answers and provided information will be strictly anonymous and kept totally confidential.

Survey Link: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/WSQGPZ2

For those of you interested in statistics, all collected information will be scientifically analyzed and utilized to create an inherently unique structural equation model. To that end, I’ll send a report out to each participating blog which details general trends and reader utilization issues of note.

Again, please consider taking this survey (Survey Link: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/WSQGPZ2) whether or not you ever create or read “user –generated content” on blogs or newspaper sites. The survey itself will take 10 – 15 minutes and, I promise, will be quite painless. As stated above, research on the topic of “user-generated content” is incredibly sparse and your participation will go a long way in understanding the environmental factors that encourage meaningful intra-community participation. And, of course, you’ll be doing me a great and immeasurable favor.

The survey will be active from Monday, December 14 through Friday, December 18. Please feel free to e-mail me at thopp@mail.sdsu.edu if you have any questions relating to the survey or my over-arching methodology/conceptual framework (obviously, there’s a lot more to the study that can be reasonably described here).

Thank you for your time and please know that your participation really does mean a great deal to me on both a professional and personal level.