by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

Last week, I analyzed some of fantasy baseball’s more desirable veterans headed into the season. This time around, I’ve done the opposite and found a bevy of players, 35 and older, who I will be hesitant to grab draft day. Remember, players must be 35 or older by opening day to qualify, and are not ranked, but simply listed in alphabetical order.

What differs from my last post, however, is that players had to be drafted in at least 20% of mixed league drafts to qualify for this list, so as to avoid the obvious. As such, players like Kevin Millwood, Edgar Renteria, and Scott Rolen were all up for consideration, but are ineligible, as most of you already know to look elsewhere for value.

Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Johnny Damon (OF, Detroit Tigers) Age: 36

Back when Damon was a free agent, I analyzed his prospective value as a member of the Tigers, but I’ll summarize here: stay away. Damon had one of the best years of his fine career last season, taking advantage of the new Yankee Stadium by posting his highest career FB% and tying his career high with 24 homers. Moving to spacious Comerica Park will sap Damon of much of his power, however, and given that he hit 17 of his 24 homers at home last season, I wouldn’t be surprised if Damon’s homerun total fell by 50% in 2010. Once upon a time, that might not have been enough to seriously damage Damon’s fantasy value, but aside from his power numbers, Damon saw regression across the board last year. His average fell 21 points from 2009 and his twelve stolen bases marked his lowest ever in a full season. Damon still has an incredible eye, and he will score runs batting leadoff, but I see him posting a line of .290-12-70 with 15 SB and 90 R. Those numbesr make his current ADP of 119 too high. Damon is still a viable option as a fifth fantasy outfielder, but taking him before round 15 is a move you’ll regret when you can still grab high-upside players like Julio Borbon and Colby Rasmus.

Raul Ibanez (OF, Philadelphia Phillies) Age: 37

Ibanez had a career year in 2009, going to his first All-Star game and making Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro Jr. look like a genius for signing him over 2008 incumbent left fielder Pat Burrell. I do believe that Ibanez can be counted on as a solid fantasy contributor this year, as his escape from Safeco field allowed him to set career-highs in homers, slugging percentage, and OPS, all while missing nearly 30 games with an injury. Nevertheless, I do not believe that a 37-year-old outfielder can completely reinvent himself and be counted on to duplicate a HR/FB ratio nearly a third higher than his career average. Ibanez has always been a good hitter and bats in the best line-up in the National League. I’d have no problem going into the season with him as my third outfielder. That said, Ibanez is a great candidate for regression and his current ADP of 93 is a steep price to pay; especially with high-upside outfielders like Carlos Quentin and Jay Bruce still on the board. I project Ibanez to have another good season and hit .280-25-90 with 90 RBI. Those numbers would make him a Top 125 fantasy player, but a reach in a draft’s first ten rounds.

Chipper Jones (3B, Atlanta Braves) Age: 37

Jones’ current ADP is 131 and if you’re intent on taking a gamble on him; the 14^th round is a fair time to do so. Aside from beleaguered Mets’ Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, Jones is the fantasy cog most likely to miss serious time with injuries. Jones has received 500 ABs only once in the past six seasons and only once in that span did he appear in over 140 games. If healthy and given 600 ABs, I have no doubts that Jones’ Hall of Fame-type skills would allow him to post a line of .320-25-115 with 90 R. However, given Jones’ age and injury history, I can’t project him for more than 450 ABs, which would still be higher than his average of 442 over the past five seasons. Missing a fourth of a season hurts Jones less than many other players, but would still drop his totals to .310-19-85, making him a good but unspectacular option at third base. If you do insist on grabbing Jones, you’re going to have to handcuff him with a Mark Teahen or Casey Blake-type third baseman that is sure to see playing time during one of Jones’ inevitable DL stints.

Derek Lowe (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 36

Normally, I would project a pitcher with a .330 BABIP and Lowe’s track record of success to have a bounce-back season and once again become a Top 50 fantasy starter. Lowe’s secondary numbers tell a very different tale, leading me to project only a modest bounce-back from his 4.67 ERA from last season. Further, I doubt he ever returns to putting up the sub-4.00 ERAs he posted during his time as a Dodger. Lowe’s Ground Ball percentage of 56.3% was his lowest ever as a starter and is a dangerously low number for a sinkerball specialist. Lowe also lost a full MPH on both his fastball and slider while conversely gaining a MPH on his changeup, which is a sign that his arm may be wearing down after throwing 1,000+ innings over the past five seasons. Because he’s a veteran on a good team, Lowe could go 15-8 with a 4.25 ERA, a 1.3 WHIP, and 120 Ks. Those numbers make Lowe nothing more than a fantasy spot starter, however, making his ADP of 303 appropriate for his projected value. Good thing the Braves gave him that four-year contract! Ouch.

Bengie Molina (C, San Francisco Giants) Age: 35

Molina hasn’t done anything wrong to garner a spot on this list; rather, quite the opposite. Molina has played so well for the Giants the past few seasons that they decided to bring him back for 2010, blocking uber-prospect, Buster Posey. Molina has been a quietly productive fantasy catcher over the past few years, averaging 18 HR and 85 RBI during his stint with San Francisco. If I were certain Molina was going to play a full season, projecting his numbers would be easy, as he is what he is: a consistent player who doesn’t strike out much, doesn’t walk much, and will always post a SLG around .440. In his write-up of Posey, MLBFP’s Bill Root sharply noted that the young catcher is a good bet to see some serious playing time in the second half of the season, and that playing time will come at the expense of Molina. The combination of Molina’s increasing age and the threat of lost playing time to Posey force me to project Molina for only 400 ABs this season, giving him a line of .275-15-70. Sadly, that would still make him a Top 15 fantasy catcher, but makes his current ADP of 166 a bit hard to swallow. Molina is still worth drafting and could retain his value if traded, but his owners may be searching for a new starting catcher come July.

Andy Pettitte (SP, New York Yankees) Age: 37

At first glance, Pettitte may seem like a solid pick to fill out a fantasy rotation. He has a track record of success and pitches behind the best offense in baseball, likely winning 15+ games. That may be where Pettitte’s usefulness to fantasy owners ends, though. He has turned into a one-category contributor at this stage in his career. Pettitte has averaged just 149 Ks over the past three seasons and hasn’t posted a sub-4.00 ERA or sub 1.35 WHIP since 2005. Also startling is Pettitte’s BB/9 ratio, which jumped to 3.51, his highest rate since 2000. Regardless, fantasy owners must still find those potential wins appealing, as Pettitte is sporting an ADP of 209. The 21st round is too early to draft the veteran southpaw, as there should be several better pitching options remaining on the board. Instead of Pettitte, owners are better served by going with bounce-back candidates such as Erik Bedard and Aaron Harang, high-upsiders like Jeff Niemann and Johnny Cueto, or the undervalued Mark Buehrle. Those who do stick with Pettitte should expect 16 wins with a 4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 150 Ks, which makes him an excellent spot starter, but not reliable on for regular starts in 2010.

Miguel Tejada (SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 35

Tejada is living off of his reputation, as he’s being taken several rounds ahead of high-upside shortstops Elvis Andrus, Yunel Escobar, and Asdrubal Cabrera. Two factors allow Tejada to remain fantasy relevant: he’s extremely durable and he will retain his middle infield eligibility despite his move to third base in 2010. Tejada’s days of hitting 20 homeruns are permanently in the rear view mirror as his HR/FB rate has seen a slow but steady regression over the past four seasons. Because he will hit in a sneaky-good Orioles lineup this season, Tejada’s RBI and R totals should hold up well, actually bolstering his fantasy value a bit. Still, I see Tejada hitting .285-13-78 with 80 R and 3 SB, making him a passable middle infielder, but unacceptable as a starting shortstop or corner infielder. Tejada’s ADP is currently 133, and while that’s not outrageous, it’s still about three rounds before I’d consider snagging him. The shortstop position is ripe with sleepers…passing on Tejada to take a Everth Cabrera, Alcides Escobar, or J.J. Hardy eight to ten rounds later is a more savvy move.

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

Here at MLBFP, we’re all about prospects, but just to show you how well rounded we are, we’ve decided to highlight some older fantasy contributors to target and some others avoid in 2010. I won’t analyze the obvious. Yes, you should still draft Ichiro Suzuki and Mariano Rivera, and no, you shouldn’t draft Livan Hernandez, tempting as it may be. Instead, I’ll take a gander at where some of your favorite fantasy elders are being drafted and tell you where they should be going, as they cling to the edge of fantasy relevance.

First up are the grizzly vets who are undervalued heading into the 2010 season. The players listed below have to be 35 by opening day and are not ranked, but rather presented in alphabetical order below. Feel free to comment below, and let me know what you think of my age 35+ sleepers for 2010.

All Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

Bobby Abreu (OF, Los Angeles Angels) Age: 36

Last season, both the Angels and fantasy owners alike found a steal in Abreu, as he had a phenomenal year despite leaving the vaunted Yankee offense. Bobby is an extraordinarily consistent five-category fantasy producer, and is somewhat undervalued headed into the 2010 season. For his career, he’s averaged lines of .299-21-99 with 29 SB, but is no longer considered an elite fantasy option. Abreu’s current ADP is 75, and he’s being taken well after hit-or-miss outfielders such as Curtis Granderson and B.J. Upton, whose upsides are only slightly better than what Abreu produces year-after-year. I see Abreu batting third in the Angels’ lineup this season, a perfect spot in Los Angeles, as manager Mike Sciocia will allow him to steal freely despite also being counted on as a run producer. In spite of his age, an injury is not a concern for this all-time great Venezuelan. The last time he played under 150 games was his rookie season…in 1997! I expect Abreu to essentially duplicate his 2009 stats: .290-16-100 with 26 SB and 90 R. Those numbers would make him a good second fantasy outfielder, and someone I would feel confident about using a sixth or seventh round selection on.

Octavio Dotel (CL, Pittsburgh Pirates) Age: 36

The NL Central has managed to make respectable closers out of Salomon Torres, Matt Capps, and Derrick Turnbow in recent years. That should say all you need to know about Dotel’s chances for success in 2010, as he is the favorite to win the closer job in Pittsburgh. With a current ADP of 253, Dotel is being taken after set-up men such as Fernando Rodney and JP Howell, even in re-draft leagues. I’m not suggesting that Dotel is going to be a Top 10 closer this year, but I do believe he has more value than a middle reliever. Dotel’s BB/9 rate of 5.20 is certainly troubling, but represents a significant increase from his career average, and his K/9 rate of 10.98 means that Octavio will at least provide 70-80 Ks to help offset his unsightly WHIP. With only Joel Hanrahan breathing down his neck, I like Dotel to keep the job for the majority of the year. Fantasy owners are used to making concessions for saves and Dotel is an under-the-radar, solid third fantasy closer who is capable of grabbing 30 saves with a sub-4.00 ERA and sub-1.50 WHIP. Don’t reach for him, but Dotel provides solid value for where he’s being taken right now.

Vladimir Guerrero (DH, Texas Rangers) Age: 35

Once a perennial first round fantasy stud, Guerrero had a down year in his final season in Los Angeles. Injuries limited him to just 383 ABs and below 25 homeruns for the first time since 1997. It will be strange seeing Vlad play in his AL West rival’s uniform, but this could be a blessing in disguise for fantasy owners. His career numbers in Texas are ridiculous and include a 44 game hitting streak against the Rangers from 2004-2006. Arlington’s hitter-friendly ballpark coupled with Texas’ great lineup point to a rebound year for Guerrero. His transition to full-time DH duties should help him stay healthy, as well. Vlad was sapped of much of his power last year due to knee injuries; thus, his HR/FB rate fell to 11.5%, which is nearly 6% lower than his career average. Vlad’s days as a base stealer are long gone, but I like him to be a four-category producer this season, hitting .310-25-100 with 90 R. Those numbers mean he’s vastly undervalued, as his current ADP sits at 140. Grab Guerrero in the 10^th round, and watch him be a key cog in your fantasy offense in 2010.

Trevor Hoffman (CL, Milwaukee Brewers) Age: 42

Hoffman may be the oldest player on this list, but shows no signs of slowing down. At the age of 41, he had yet another All-Star season in 2009. Hoffman is not an exciting or flashy closer, but gets the job done with his plus control and phenomenal changeup. It is exactly this skill set that has allowed Hoffman to stay productive into his senior years, as he doesn’t rely on fastball velocity to get anyone out the way many closers do. Hoffman’s ADP is 169, and he’s being drafted 20^th among closers, behind wildcards such as Rafael Soriano and David Aardsma. Hoffman won’t have nearly as many strikeouts as other closers, but is a very safe bet to produce 35+ saves, which makes him undervalued in the 17th round. Hoffman’s ERA should rise from last year’s career-best 1.83, as his BABIP was an insanely lucky .240, but I still like Hoffman to grab 37 saves and 50 Ks with a sub-2.50 ERA and sub-1.10 WHIP. Those numbers would make Hoffman a Top 15 fantasy closer, and someone I’d be comfortable relying on as my second closing option in mixed leagues.

Hideki Matsui (DH, Los Angeles Angels) Age: 35

Matsui was a great signing for the Angels, as he should replace a fair amount of the production that the Halo’s lost when they let Guerrero walk. I like Matsui to hit sixth in the Angel’s order, and with Abreu, Torii Hunter, and Kendry Morales hitting in front of him, he should get plenty of RBI opportunities. Matsui’s current ADP is a lowly 259. He’s being selected after players like Mark DeRosa, Garrett Atkins, and Edwin Encarnacion, all of whom he’ll easily out-produce. Matsui presents the greatest injury risk among all of the players listed, and while the Angels’ rumored plans to give him some time in the outfield would help his fantasy value, it would also increase the likelihood that he misses serious time in 2010. If Matsui stays healthy, he’ll rebound from his lowly .273 BABIP and hit .285-25-90, making him a very nice utility player and an absolute steal in the 26th round. Again, Matsui comes with significant risk, but that late in the draft, it’s a risk an owner can afford to take.

Magglio Ordonez (OF, Detroit Tigers) Age: 36

I consider Ordonez to be one of the most undervalued players headed into the 2010 season, as everyone seems to have given up on him after one “bad” year. One in which he still managed to hit .310! Ordonez’s days of being a dominant, Top 10 fantasy outfielder are over, but he still can be of value to fantasy owners in 2010, especially if picked-up around his current ADP of 269. I like Ordonez far more than players such as Nolan Reimold, Chris Coughlan, and Juan Rivera, who are all being drafted seven to eight rounds earlier. Ordonez’s FB percentage fell to 28.1% in 2009, but I have a hard time believing that someone who has hit 20+ homeruns 8 times in his career has suddenly lost all of his power overnight. Expect Ordonez to rebound and hit .315-22-95 in 2010, making him a fine fourth fantasy outfielder and a steal in the 28th round. Even if Ordonez’s power never returns, he’s a near lock to hit .300+ and can help you as a bench player.

Jorge Posada (C, New York Yankees) Age: 38

As an avid Red Sox fan who grew up idolizing Jason Varitek, there are few players I loathe more than Jorge Posada. That doesn’t change the fact that I expect him to be a fantasy asset, yet again, in 2010. Aside from 2008, when a shoulder injury completely derailed his season, Posada has been a fantasy stud since the turn of the century, contributing solidly in three offensive categories; all while maintaining catcher eligibility. Posada will again bat in the middle of the best lineup in baseball and play half of his games in hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, where he’ll continue to make good use of the wind tunnel in right field when batting left-handed. These factors lead me to believe that Posada will contribute another solid fantasy season, hitting .280-22-80 with 70 R. Given the dearth of offensive talent at the catcher position, that would likely make Posada a Top 7 fantasy catcher, quite worthy of his ADP of 113. Miguel Montero, Ryan Doumit, and Geovany Soto may have higher upsides, but Posada is the safest bet to produce.

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

I know you’ve been waiting patiently for the rest of this list, so let’s get right to it:

13) Billy Butler (1B, Kansas City Royals) Age: 23, ADP: 81

• (14th among 1B)

It’s hard to believe that Butler, already entering his third season, is still just 23-years-old. This may be bad news for fantasy owners, however, as it means he might still be a year or two away from fulfilling his power potential. I wanted to project Butler for 25+ homeruns, but similarly to Adam Jones, his low ISO and high GB% are knocking him down slightly in my rankings. I still like Butler to hit .315-20-90, but that makes him more of a corner infielder than a solid, starting fantasy first baseman. The ninth round is a little high for Butler, and it’s worth noting that you can wait seven or eight rounds and get around 75% of his production from Todd Helton or Nick Johnson.

14) Jon Danks (SP, Chicago White Sox) Age: 24, ADP: 162

• (38th among SP)

Danks barely qualifies for this list, as he turns 25 a week into the season, and is still slowly evolving into a stellar fantasy option. Danks’ low BABIP is concerning, but it’s consistent, which relieves some of my fears. He’s now turned in back-to-back, solid seasons, and I like him to build on that success in 2010. I project Danks will go 14-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 160 K’s, making him a solid fourth fantasy starter and an excellent value for the seventeenth round.

15) Jair Jurrjens (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 24, ADP: 144

• (32nd among SP)

Jurrjens helped me on several teams last season, and I think he has a bright future. Nevertheless, I believe he’s in for a decent regression this season. Jurrjens was benefited last year by a very low BABIP of .273, and that, along with his alarmingly low K/BB rate of 2.03, warn me that his WHIP is about to skyrocket. He’ll still be worth owning as a fourth fantasy pitcher, and I expect a line of 14-10 with a 3.75 ERA and 140 K’s, but Brian Anderson, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Zambrano are just some of the many pitchers with lower ADP’s who I prefer to Jurrjens this year.

16) Andrew McCutchen (OF, Pittsburgh Pirates) Age: 23, ADP: 8

• (26th among OF)

McCutchen is, in my opinion, an overdraft in the ninth round, and should not be taken ahead of players such as Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn, Torii Hunter or Jay Bruce, all of whom have lower ADPs. I know that speed is at a premium in the fantasy world, and I do think McCutchen will swipe 30 bags this year, but I don’t consider him to be a Top 100 player, yet. I see McCutchen hitting .280-12-65 with 30 SB, which makes him a solid third outfielder, but not someone I’d take over a second starter or comparable middle infielder.

17) Elvis Andrus (SS, Texas Rangers) Age: 22, ADP: 149

• (12th among SS)

Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera (148), and Yunel Escobar (153) are all ranked within 5 spots of each other, which shows that it’s basically a crapshoot between which of the three will produce the most this season. Personally, I believe it will be Andrus, as his 2009 BABIP of .305 is likely to improve. Hitting in a superior offense, he’ll probably score the most runs of the three. I like Andrus to hit .280-5-55 with 40 SB with 90 R, making him slightly undervalued as a current fifteenth round pick.

18) Homer Bailey (SP, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 23, ADP: 278

• (77th among SP)

Bailey is another semi-sleeper who I’m very high on, and have been grabbing in my leagues on a regular basis. After struggling for the better part of three seasons, everything finally clicked for Bailey last season, as he finished on a tear. Watch for him to continue that success and be a viable option as a fifth fantasy starter this season, going 14-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 170 Ks. Once Bailey lowers his 4.13 BB/9 ratio, I believe he will be a Top 30 fantasy pitcher. For now, however, grab Bailey late in drafts, where he’ll be going after the likes of Kevin Correia, Gil Meche, and Joe Blanton, and get all you can out of him before Dusty Baker inevitably blows out his arm.

19) Carlos Gonzalez (OF, Colorado Rockies) Age: 24, ADP: 122

• (41st among OF)

Gonzalez was one of my favorite sleepers headed into the year, but apparently others have caught on as well, as his ADP now has him as a thirteenth round pick. Gonzalez is a potential 20 HR/20 SB player. If the Rockies wise up and give him 500 ABs this season, I think he can reach those numbers. Overall, I like Car-Go to hit .285-21-75 with 20 stolen bases, making him a very nice fourth/borderline third fantasy outfielder. Gonzalez’s ADP is fine for now, but if he creeps into the tenth or eleventh round, he’s not worth reaching for.

20) Dexter Fowler (OF, Colorado Rockies) Age: 24, ADP: 259

• (63rd among OF)

I was shocked to see Fowler have such a low ADP, as anyone capable of stealing 30 bases is usually gone before round 26. A poor man’s Andrew McCutchen, Fowler could provide 80% of McCutchen’s value, but taken 10 to 15 rounds later. I project Fowler to hit .275-5-50 with 30 SB and 95 R, making him a terrific fifth fantasy outfielder and quite the bargain.

21) Colby Rasmus (OF, St. Louis Cardinals) Age: 23, ADP: 90

• (52nd among OF)

Rasmus represents another rare case where I agree with a player’s ADP. He does strike out too much, and if he doesn’t rectify that, he’ll never reach his full fantasy potential. But while Rasmus struggled due to his lack of patience, his mundane rookie campaign was also due to bad luck, as his BABIP was just .282 and among the worst in the majors. I believe Rasmus can hit .270-18-70 this year with 14 SB, making him a good fifth fantasy outfielder at a reasonable draft slot. He should also score plenty of runs batting ahead of Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

22) Alcides Escobar (SS, Milwaukee Brewers) Age 23, ADP: 241

• (19th among SS)

Escobar is unproven, but I think he’s quite a steal for fantasy owners this season, as I see him as a Top 12 fantasy shortstop. I’m projecting Escobar’s line to be .285-4-50 with 40 SB and 80 R, making him another bargain for the 25th round. Better known shortstops such as Marco Scutaro and Erick Aybar are being drafted first, but neither can provide the kind of standings-altering speed that Escobar can. He might have to take some lumps as a rookie, but I would feel very comfortable going into the season with Escobar as my starting middle infielder.

23) Johnny Cueto (SP, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 24, ADP: 219

• (57th among SP)

A strikeout machine in the minors, Cueto saw his K/9 drop from 8.17 to 6.93 last season, diminishing his fantasy value. Cueto still has electric stuff, however, and while his punch-outs have been fading, his walks have followed suit. Cueto may never develop into the No. 2 fantasy starter I thought he’d be, but I still like him as a No. 5, capable of going 14-9 with a 4.00 ERA and 180 Ks. Cueto is being taken after no-upside veterans like Randy Wolf and Andy Pettitte. While he’s far from a sure thing, I would take Cueto’s potential over the safety of a washed-up veteran any day.

24) Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/SS, Cleveland Indians) Age: 24, ADP: 148

• (11th among SS, 12th among 2B)

I’ve never been a Cabrera believer. His ADP is ridiculous, but I have to put him on this list due to position scarcity. Cabrera has regression written all over him, as his BABIP in 2009 was a lucky .360, while his stolen base total was more than twice as high as it was in 2008. I have Cabrera falling to .280-4-50 with 11 SB this year, and he won’t score many runs in Cleveland’s anemic offense. I don’t see Cabrera being much of a fantasy contributor this year, so I will be looking to avoid him on draft day.

25) Brian Matusz (SP, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 23, ADP: 302

• (ND among SP)

This pick was almost Detroit righty, Rick Porcello, but I opted with Matusz due to Porcello’s low BABIP and paltry 4.69 K/9 ratio. The fact that Matusz is in the AL East scares me, but all of his other numbers point to immediate big league success. Matusz is my early favorite for AL ROY, and I think he will be a nice No.5 fantasy starter this season, going 13-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 170 Ks. Matusz is currently being drafted in the 31st round, so you really have nothing to lose by taking a flier on him.

Just Missed The Cut

26) Rick Porcello (SP, Detroit Tigers) Age: 21, ADP: 205

• (52nd among SP)

27) Julio Borbon (OF, Texas Rangers) Age: 24, ADP: 169

• (45th among OF)

28) Travis Snider (OF, Toronto Blue Jays) Age: 22, ADP: 223

• (56th among OF)

29) David Price (SP, Tampa Bay Rays) Age: 24, ADP: 143

• (43rd among SP)

30) Chris Coghlan (OF, Florida Marlins) Age: 24, ADP: 201

• (52nd among OF)

Follow this link to see 1 thru 12...

by Ben Carsley, Staff Writer

What do Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum, and Troy Tulowitzki have in common? None of them qualify for this list of the Top 25 best fantasy cogs under the age of 25.

Using the cut-off date of Opening Day 2010 as my guide, I poured over every roster and checked the age of every fantasy relevant player on every MLB team. After excluding everyone with a DOB that ends in 84 or later, here are my results. Fresh from my cheat-sheet to your computer screen, I present to you a keeper-league owner’s best friend: The Top 25 Under 25.

As you will see, this feature is split into two parts. No worries, I won’t tease you – the Top 12 is in the first installment.

All Average Draft Positions (ADPs) are courtesy of Mock Draft Central.

1) Evan Longoria (3B, Tampa Bay Rays) Age: 24, ADP: 9

• (2nd among 3B)

An absolute fantasy monster, Longoria has everything a fantasy owner could want from a first round pick, as he is balanced, reliable, and plays a shallow position. Longoria is one of the best and most exciting players in the game, and I have no problem with his ADP. That said, in non-keeper leagues, I’m not sure if I agree with him going behind the suddenly undervalued David Wright. Grab Longoria in the bottom half of the first round, and except a monster season of .285/35 HRs/120 RBIs/8 SBs.

2) Justin Upton (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks) Age: 22, ADP: 24

• (6th among OF)

Baseball America’s second highest rated prospect in 2006, fantasy owners have long had their eyes on Upton, who’s ADP has been steadily rising over the past two years. I’m as much of a believer in his potential as anyone, and I think he makes a great third-round pick, making his current ADP of 24 very fair. I like Upton to hit .290-30-90 with 18 SB this year, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 20 points better either. Don’t take him over Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, or Carl Crawford, but you can make the argument that Upton is the fourth best fantasy outfielder heading into the season (although I personally like Grady Sizemore more).

3) Felix Hernandez (SP, Seattle Mariners) Age: 23, ADP: 32

• (5th among SP)

While I personally refrain from drafting pitchers within the first four rounds of a draft, King Felix’s talent is undeniable. Thus, his ADP of 32 is fair. He’s currently ranked behind only Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, and Zack Greinke, and while I would personally rank Hernandez above Greinke, they’re too close for me to have a serious problem with it. Hernandez has only gotten better each year since being called up to the majors, and I expect that trend to continue in 2010. Watch Hernandez go 18-6 with a 2.25 ERA and 220 Ks this season, and enjoy as he anchors your fantasy staff.

4) Pablo Sandoval (3B, San Francisco Giants) Age: 23, ADP: 38

• (6th among 3B)

I’ve never been a huge Sandoval believer, but even his biggest fans should accept that selecting the “Kung Fu Panda” in the fourth round is a reach. Sandoval is a good fantasy option at third base, and I like him to hit around .315-22-90, but those numbers do not warrant him being selected before players like Justin Morneau or Ichiro Suzuki. Sandoval would be a fine choice in the early sixth/late fifth round, but if he’s my fourth-best fantasy player, I’m not going to feel too comfortable.

5) Yovani Gallardo (SP, Milwaukee Brewers) Age: 24, ADP: 88

• (17th among SP)

Gallardo is one of my favorite fantasy pitchers headed into this year, and I’ve waited on pitching and made him my fantasy ace in several of my drafts thus far. Gallardo represents great value with his current ADP, as fantasy owners who select him will be getting a stud four-category producer in the ninth round. The Brewers’ defense is less than phenomenal, but I still expect Gallardo to take a step forward and go 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 225 Ks this year. Adam Wainwright and Javier Vazquez have higher ADPs, but ride Gallardo instead in 2010.

6) Tommy Hanson (SP, Atlanta Braves) Age: 23, ADP: 80

• (16th among SP)

Gallardo and Hanson are basically interchangeable in my rankings, as I believe Hanson will have a phenomenal year as well. All of Hanson’s advanced stats (such as an insanely low, Sabathia-esque 0.7 HR/9) suggest that he will continue to have success in 2010. While I’m not quite ready to give him the title of fantasy ace yet, I wouldn’t be surprised if he earns that distinction this year. I project that Hanson will go 16-4 with a 3.25 ERA, 190 Ks, and a very low WHIP. He’s a solid pick from the seventh round on and a superb No. 2 fantasy starter.

7) Jay Bruce (OF, Cincinnati Reds) Age: 23, ADP: 116

• (38th among OF)

It pains me to write about the type of season I believe Bruce is going to have, because as an active participator in fantasy leagues, I don’t want to see him lose his sleeper status. I believe Bruce will break out in a huge way this year and be a Top 50 fantasy player, hitting .280-35-100. Many of you will be skeptical of that projection, but anyone with Bruce’s talent, a BABIP of .221, and a 16.8 HR/FB percentage is destined for greatness. Even if those advanced stats don’t convince you, please at least help change the fact that Bruce is being selected behind players such as Brad Hawpe, Alex Rios, and Jason Kubel. Grab Bruce in the eight or ninth round, watch him pile up the power numbers, and don’t forget to thank me in October.

8) Matt Wieters (C, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 23, ADP: 91

• (4th among C)

Wieters is a rare example of a player whose ADP and positional ranking make perfect sense to me. After a solid but unspectacular 2009 season, I project Wieters to hit .285-20-85 this year, and do believe that he will be the fourth most valuable fantasy catcher, behind only Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, and Victor Martinez. The tenth round is a great spot to grab Wieters, and I wouldn’t call grabbing him in the ninth to be much of a reach either.

9) Brett Anderson (SP, Oakland Athletics) Age: 22, ADP: 155

• (35th among SP)

Anderson is another one of my favorite sleepers headed into the 2010 season, as I see the lefty becoming a Top 25 fantasy starter. Anderson needs to do a better job of working out of jams (only a 67-percent LOB), but has the arsenal needed to shut down hitters in the spacious Coliseum. I believe Anderson will have a breakout year and go 15-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 170 Ks, outperforming many pitchers drafted ahead of him, such as Scott Baker, Max Scherzer, and Wandy Rodriguez. Anderson’s current ADP has him going in the 16th round, and unless I was already loaded in the starting pitching department, I would grab him there in a heartbeat.

10) Gordon Beckham (2B/3B, Chicago White Sox) Age: 23, ADP: 87

• (10th among 2B, 9th among 3B)

I love Beckham’s position versatility this year, and given the shady track records of Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist, he could end up being a Top Seven second baseman for fantasy owners. I project an all-around solid .285-20-70 line with 10 SBs for Beckham this year, and believe he’ll be even better in the future. The eighth round is a little too early to take him for my tastes, and I’d still rather have Dan Uggla, but given his 2B eligibility, Beckham is a borderline Top 100 fantasy player in my book.

11) Adam Jones (OF, Baltimore Orioles) Age: 24, ADP: 89

• (30th among OF)

I feel the same way about Jones that I do about Sandoval, in that I do like him, but apparently not as much as some, as his current ADP has him as a ninth round selection. Fantasy owners can dream on Jones, as he has 30 HR/20 SB potential, but his low ISO and 28.1% FB rate lead me to believe he may never quite hit the 30 HR threshold. I project Jones to hit .275-20-80 with 18 SBs, which makes him a fine 11th-13th round pick, but until Jones proves he can start generating some more lift with his swing, he’s not a Top 100 player to me.

12) Clayton Kershaw (SP, Los Angeles Dodgers) Age: 22, ADP: 94

• (19th among SP)

People will likely be surprised to see Kershaw this far down on the list, and based on upside alone, he’s the best pitcher in this ranking not named Felix. But people forget that even Hernandez needed a few years in the majors before he fully dominated, and I see Kershaw following the same path. I believe Kershaw will be very useful as a fourth fantasy starter this year, but he’s being well over-drafted because of his name value, and is not someone I would select with one of my first ten picks. Kershaw will likely be a Top 10 pitcher some day, but for now, I expect him to go 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 180 Ks, making him a good but overvalued fantasy asset.

Follow this link to see 13 thru 25...

by Stephen Sheridan, Managing Editor

Cleveland Indians, San Francisco Giants, Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Ehire Adrianza, Nick Noonan, Brian Bocock, Madison Bumgarner, Todd Wellemeyer,  Joe Martinez, Kevin Pucetas, Atlanta Braves, Jason Heyward

Welcome to the first spring training edition of Touch ‘Em All, our quick, four-stop tour around the fantasy prospect blogosphere.

Indians Prospect Insider blogger, Tony Lastoria, has a great rundown of 2010 prospect guides, including MLBFP’s Top Prospects by Division Series (more on this in a bit). If you’re a Cleveland Indians fanatic, I strongly urge you to purchase Tony’s book, 2010 Cleveland Indians Top 100 Prospects & More.

Kevin O’Brien over at Remember ‘51 has been showering MLBFP with praise since we broke onto the scene. To show our appreciation, let me bring your attention to an excellent piece he posted about four young middle infielders that struggled in the San Francisco Giants organization last season: Emmanuel Burriss, Brandon Crawford, Ehire Adrianza, and Nick Noonan. I was particularly interested his take on Crawford, as I picked him up in a NL dynasty league last season:

Why Giants Fans Should Be Hopeful of Crawford:
Crawford has always drawn raves for his glove and he still remains a solid defensive player. His RF/G was 4.58 in combined Single-A and Double-A play in 2009, so that should give some Giants fans hope considering Edgar Renteria's RF/G was 3.74 for the Giants in 2009. If anything, Crawford would be a solid upgrade over Renteria or even Juan Uribe (who had a 3.78 RF/G in 2009 at shortstop).

Granted, defense isn't everything. Brian Bocock was a good defender too. However, unlike Bocock, Crawford does have an ability to hit. His combined stats in Single-A and Double-A last year were still decent (.282 average, .742 OPS) and he had a solid campaign in Arizona Fall League this year (as evidenced by a .312 average and .850 OPS). If Crawford can get back to Single-A form somewhat, or hover around those combined-level stats from 2009 in 2010, it isn't impossible to think that he could be competing for the starting shortstop job in 2011 once Edgar Renteria's contract is up.

Why Giants Fans Should Be Skeptical of Crawford:
He is 23-years-old, and played three years of college baseball at UCLA. So, he's not exactly young considering where he's at in the minor league system, and he doesn't have a whole lot of time to develop in comparison to guys out of high school (such as Nick Noonan). Therefore, Crawford ceiling may not be very high, and Giants fans could see him reach it in a couple of years considering his college experience.

That being said, despite his three years of college ball, and two years of professional ball, Crawford has serious issues at the plate. At four levels of play (rookie, short-season Single-A, Advanced Single-A, and Double-A), Crawford's BB/K ratios haven't been great. He had 0.00 BB/K ratio in Arizona and Salem Keizer (because he drew no walks, but then again, it was only a five game sample) and a 0.20 BB/K ratio with the Defenders. Even in his solid outing in San Jose, he BB/K ratio wasn't good at 0.31 (a 30.5 percent strikeout rate probably contributed to such a high ratio)

MLB.com added an excellent tool to the fantasy section of their site called Position Decisions. I highly recommend it as it breaks down all the spring training battles to the nth-degree. Let me give you an example. For the Giants No. 5 starter, they have it as: Madison Bumgarner vs. Todd Wellemeyer  vs. Joe Martinez vs. Kevin Pucetas. The winner? Our No. 11 MLB Fantasy Prospect, Madison Bumgarner (pictured right), but with a caveat.

The Giants have proven that they're not afraid to give their younger pitchers opportunities. Bumgarner's only 20. But the ballclub is in win-now mode. The Giants won't hesitate to rely on someone besides Bumgarner if he struggles; likely Wellemeyer.

Finally, in a post that’s aptly titled, Jason Heyward: First Ballot BP Hall of Famer, Base Heads front-man Paul Bourdett takes a lighthearted look at the ridiculous hype coming out of Braves camp. For those of you considering a trip to Lake Buena Visa to check out “J-Hype” firsthand, Paul provides the top ten “much safer locations for your car than the right field parking lot of the Braves spring training facility.” Great stuff, Mr. Bourdett!

I’d be remiss if I didn’t give a shout-out to our newest addition, Ben Carsley, for his tremendous work in cranking out his first feature: the 2010 MLB Fantasy Prospects By Division Series. Y’all will be able to get to this piece all season by scrolling down the adjacent column to the right of this post. Superb job, Ben. Superb.

Also, in what is beginning to be a regular occurrence, my main man Billy Root’s article on 2010 Impact Rookies was picked up by SI.com, just recently. That’s right, fantasy prospectors, MLBFP is for real.

By Bill Root, Executive Editor

I’ve been agonizing over whether to place Jason Heyward or Stephen Strasburg at the top of my prospect list. Really, over the past month, I’ve dedicated more time analyzing this question than I’ve spent on any other pressing issue in my life. Hi, my name is Bill Root, and I am a prospectoholic.

As you can see, unlike most other lists, Heyward is a bridesmaid on my Top Fantasy Prospects list. Nevertheless, spare me the angry emails and comments – I strongly agree that Heyward morphs into a fantasy stud over the next few years. Nevertheless, as I will explain in my Strasburg scouting report, the “S.S. Express” is more deserving of being the ultimate cream of my fantasy crop. Bluntly, as I tweeted on my Twitter account, I am not sure when there’s been a better two-some at the top of prospect lists over the past decade. Heyward and Strasburg will both be fantasy cornerstones.

I am going to keep this scouting report short and sweet because there’s been so much written about Heyward. At 6-4, 220-pounds, he’s a massive left-handed slugger. To be honest, after seeing him in his first spring training action today, he looks bigger than those measurements. Heyward destroyed minor league pitching last year despite being only 19-years-old for a majority of the season. Specifically, across three levels, Heyward hit .323, with 17 HRs, 10 SBs, and a .963 OPS.

As I stated in my Impact Rookies article, “the 20-year-old left-handed slugger will hit .280-plus upon arrival because of his superior strike zone judgment (1.47 BB/K rate at Double-A), picture-perfect swing (22.8-percent line drive rate at Double-A), and ability to hit southpaws (.357 v. lefties in career).” Notably, however, don’t expect the dingers to come in waves at the outset. The raw power is there, but he’s still developing a consistent HR stroke. In addition, because J-Hey displayed at least some struggles with off-speed stuff in the past, the fastball won’t be the pitch of choice against Heyward. Heyward will have to display patience and adjust to change-ups/breaking balls in every count situation. At that point, he will start seeing the HR-friendly heaters.

Heyward is competing for a starting job in the Braves’ outfield. Because the Braves’ didn’t grab Johnny Damon or another outfielder off the free agent wire, there’s a good chance he’s in the starting lineup on Opening Day – if he has even an average spring. That said, Heyward’s ADP is currently 295 in mixed leagues. That price is a little high, but at least in the reasonable range. Of course, based on the over-publicized news that he’s crushing cars like Grave Digger in batting practice, he just keeps shooting up draft boards.

The hype is getting a little out of control. In fact, in some leagues, I’ve seen him drafted ahead of a guy like Vernon Wells. Take a pass on Heyward in redraft leagues if you have to pay an unreasonable price – which is getting close to inevitable.