MMA Analyst

EliteXC on CBS Betting Preview

Leland Roling — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:56:00 -0500

EliteXC returns to network television a week after some of the best action we've seen this year. DREAM, Affliction: Banned, and UFC Fight Night 14 all provided some intense battles for the MMA fanbase to enjoy. Will EliteXC be able to overcome a fantastic weekend of MMA the week before to put some solid ratings up? It'll definitely take some luck as this card isn't providing the punch that they did in the past. Nonetheless, there are a few betting lines for the card on Saturday that should entice some of the gamblers in the community. Let's take a look.

Wilson Reis (-160) vs. Brian Caraway (+140)

This definitely isn't an underdog bet for me. Wilson Reis is an absolute monster when it comes to grappling or hitting the floor in general. He has a smaller, compact body, but makes up for it with tremendous strength and skill. He'll be a handful for anyone when this battle hits the floor. Caraway will also be looking to hit the ground, and at only -160, I think Reis is a solid bet. He's only favored slightly, and this could potentially be a big money bet that should pay out.

Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos (+165) vs. Shayna Baszler (-190)

I haven't seen a lot of footage on Santos, but I do know she has tremendous knockout power. She's also brutally tough to take down at times, but Baszler is a very good grappler. She has the tools to beat nearly anyone in the division with her grappling pedigree, and having Josh Barnett as your trainer can only help. Whatever you feel, a wager isn't a bad beat by any means. Santos has the knockout power to put Baszler down instantly, and the losses that Baszler has had over the years have normally been from powerful competitors with the punch.

Robbie Lawler (-230) vs. Scott Smith (+220)

I'm still convinced that Lawler will wait out Smith and catch him with a huge blow, but Smith's chin is the x-factor once again. Smith showed an amazing determination in his last bout with Lawler, and his chin was the surprise in that fight. If he can land a solid punch, he may be able to floor Lawler. I'd still wager some money on Lawler. If it goes to the floor, Lawler still has much better wrestling skills. Look for this to be a real barn burner of a fight though.

Stay away from...

Feijao is at -480 to -550, and he should steamroll Galbraith quickly. Antonio Silva is listing at about -550 to -600. The odds are much too large to wager any money and make a killing.

Potentially dangerous...

Nick Diaz has had some very lackluster matches lately. Can Thomas Denny actually submit Diaz? Doubtful, but Diaz isn't exactly invincible from being cut and defeated. I'd still stay away from this one. Jake Shields should have the wrestling and jiu-jitsu to defeat Nick Thompson, but Thompson is a very smart fighter. He'll come in with a great gameplan, and he definitely has a shot at winning. Ballsy enough to bet it? I'm not.

EliteXC on CBS II: Lawler vs. Smith Preview & Predictions

Leland Roling — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:21:00 -0500

EliteXC will be looking to continue to massive amount of mixed martial arts action we've seen this month with their second event on CBS. Although Kimbo Slice won't on the card, Robbie Lawler will be taking on Scott Smith in a rematch of their previous CBS bout that saw Smith being stopped by the doctor due to an accidental eye gouge. The ensuing uproar by fans and the awesome battle that had happened during the bout should ensure this fight to be another war.

Also on the card, Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva will take on former UFC fighter Justin Eilers while Jake Shields will be tested by veteran Nick "The Goat" Thompson. Nick Diaz will take on Thomas Denny, notably known for crushing Malapeit in ShoXC and then being spectacularly KO'd by illegal elbows to the head. In a marquee women's matchup, Shayna Baszler will hope to continue her dominance against a very tough Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos.

Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith

Once again, we'll see two hard-hitting strikers in both Robbie Lawler and Scott Smith square off in a war of attrition. While both men have the knockout power to end this fight instantly, look for this matchup to go into the late rounds once again.

The most significant difference between my previous analysis of their first fight and this fight is Smith's chin. During their first battle, Smith displayed a rock solid iron chin that Lawler was tagging consistently. If not for that chin, Smith would have easily been out by the second round. Can Smith's determination win him this fight?

I'm still leaning toward Robbie Lawler in this fight. He has the reach, size, and a new found patience to wait opponents out before moving in for the kill. Smith still found it tough to move close to Lawler to land the big blows during their previous matchup. I don't believe Lawler will end it early, but I think he'll be able to stand with Smith for most of the fight and wear him down.

Leland's Prediction: Robbie Lawler via TKO, Round 4

Antonio Silva vs. Justin Eilers

This isn't much of a challenge for "Bigfoot" Silva. Silva will not only be bigger and stronger, but he'll likely have a huge advantage on the ground. Eilers isn't a slouch by any means, but his striking will likely be ineffective against Silva's size and reach. I don't see Eilers knocking out Silva or challenging him on the ground in any facet of jiu-jitsu or wrestling. Look for Silva to end this quickly in either the first or second round.

Leland's Prediction: Antonio Silva via TKO, Round 1

Jake Shields vs. Nick Thompson

This could very well be a fight of the night candidate. While Thompson is likely being underdog'd in this fight, he does stand a decent shot at defeating Shields potentially on his feet. Thompson's all-around game is venerable, but his ground game will be the area where Shields will try to win.

Shields, training out of Cesar Gracie Academy, has high jiu-jitsu credentials and trains with MMA veterans Nick Diaz and Gilbert Melendez on a consistent day to day basis. His grappling will likely be superior to Thompson's jiu-jitsu, but the question is how far of a gap will there be?

Shields is weak in the standup, but he's still scrappy enough to avoid the big shots. If this hits the floor, look for Shields to pull away for the win in the later rounds.

Leland's Prediction: Jake Shields via submission, Round 3

Nick Diaz vs. Thomas Denny

Nick Diaz needs to stop trying to pepper opponents with shots from his boxing training and begin to try to end fights as quickly as possible. Not only will it help him extend his career and protect his face from being cut up significantly, but it'll actually help the fans understand that he does have some potential to be one of the best in the sport. Unfortunately, Diaz seems to be content with showing how tough he is rather than finishing a fight in the first round.

Denny is a finisher on the ground, but Diaz is a much better jiu-jitsu practitioner. Look for this fight to hit the floor after Denny gets peppered with shots early. Hopefully, Diaz will submit Denny inside two rounds so we won't need to sit through another boring decision.

Leland's Prediction: Nick Diaz via submission, Round 2

Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos vs. Shayna Baszler

I would normally go with Shayna Baszler's killer instinct to finish her opponents quickly and her superior grappling abilities against most women in the division, but the buzz surrounding Santos is significant to give her a look here.

Santos is a power striking beast in the cage, and it wouldn't surprise me if we see a similar win by Santos over Baszler as we did when Larosa TKO'd Baszler in their past fights. While I think Baszler could potentially submit the Brazilian, it's likely that Santos has very good defense on the ground due to her Brazilian training. From what I've seen from her, she'll be a tough competitor for Baszler to steamroll.

Leland's Prediction: Cristiane Santos via TKO, Round 1

Quick picks
Anthony "El Toro" Ruiz vs. Jeremy Freitag: Ruiz has beaten Freitag twice in the past, and I don't see why this fight should go any different. Freitag's chin will be exposed, and Ruiz should take advantage. Ruiz via TKO, Round 2.

Wilson Reis vs. Brian Caraway: Reis is a nightmare, and his name will be known throughout the world before we know it. While Caraway has an impressive streak going for himself, he's primarily a submission fighter. Reis won't be susceptible to the submission, especially with his superior training on the ground. Reis is also a ball of steel in the cage. Look for his power, speed, and abilities to overwhelm Caraway quickly. Reis via submission, Round 1

Travis Galbraith vs. Rafael Feijao: Feijao should put the leather on Galbraith early in this one. Galbraith will be looking to hit the floor, but Feijao will have some decent takedown defense and likely defend against the submission well on the ground if it gets there. Look for Feijao to find the stunning knockout in this prelim. Feijao via TKO, Round 2

Determining P4P rankings: Who's #1?

Leland Roling — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 14:55:00 -0500

After the explosive win by Anderson Silva at Ultimate Fight Night 14 and the unbelievable destruction of Tim Sylvia at the hands of Fedor Emelianenko at the inaugural Affliction event, the MMA community has once again buzzed at how the pound-for-pound rankings will look. Should Anderson Silva take the crown as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world? Has Fedor propelled his status to the top after a convincing performance against what many fans wanted to see in "real" competition?

The one thing I've always wanted to explore is the criteria that most fans lay out on the table when it comes to categorizing these fighters and putting them into a ranking. What exactly pushes one fighter into the realm of being a pound-for-pound ranked fighter? For the most part, fans usually classify a dominating fighter with an exemplary record and dynamic skills onto the list. Most casual fans would likely push Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva, BJ Penn, and any number of fighters who hold titles within the UFC onto the list for the mere fact that their status in the organization has reached the top of the food chain.

With Anderson Silva moving up to Light Heavyweight and defeating James Irvin on Saturday night, many fans are clamoring for a #1 ranking on the pound-for-pound list due to the fact that he did have a dominating performance in an "unnatural" weight class. Other fighters could push this argument specifically B.J. Penn has fought admirably at other weight classes.

While I would take into consideration the suggestion that fighting and winning at different weight classes is a huge plus in the pound-for-pound rankings, I'm still torn as to how Fedor remains outside the conversation in many rankings. I've heard numerous outlets suggest his name in the top three and even at #1, but I haven't seen a solid argument. I don't have the most solid argument in the world to push him to #1, but I would like to offer some analysis as to why he potentially should be in that spot.

First and foremost, let's analyze the rest of the field. Names like Anderson Silva and Georges St. Pierre litter the top, and they should. Silva has dominated the UFC's middleweight division in stunning fashion with destructive wins over Rich Franklin and Dan Henderson. At this moment in his career, I'd definitely rank him #1 or #2 for the pure fact he crushed Franklin, a top 5 Middleweight, and amazingly defeated Henderson inside 2 rounds. The biggest problem I've had with recent talk in the P4P rankings is the fact that James Irvin's dismantling somehow affects his standing. To be brutally honest, I didn't see how Irvin stood a chance against Silva, and I still don't think it was even a remotely good fight with the only exchange resulting in Irvin eating his own words. Fans applaud Silva's efforts and I applaud him for taking the fight to excite the fanbase, but winning in another weight class against someone who has yet to prove to be a solid middle to upper tier fighter isn't a win that solidifies your standing.

St. Pierre has yet to convince the MMA community that he can effectively defend his title against a solid contender. Jon Fitch will likely be that test, but will he really be a test? I've heard the argument over the last few weeks that Fitch will be a monster against Georges St. Pierre. It hasn't convinced me yet. If he can defeat Fitch inside two rounds, which I believe will happen, look for the UFC to potentially setup a superfight between GSP and BJ Penn. That fight could potentially lift GSP into a #1 spot.

Then there was the "Last Emperor". While I don't believe he is the #1 P4P best fighter in the world right now, I only refrain from labeling him as that due to the amount of top competition fights he's had in the last few years. I do think that he has the credentials, tools, and fights left in him to easily obtain that moniker.

He not only destroyed an arguably top three heavyweight in 0:36 seconds, but he did so with a cloud of doubt from the MMA media as to whether he even had the same tenacity that he showed us in PRIDE. Are you one of those fans that are hanging onto the fact that Silva has still jumped weight classes? Fedor took on Hong Man Choi, while terrible on the ground, still weighs over 130 to 140 pounds more than the Russian. Want to argue that Choi wasn't able competition? Neither was James Irvin.

In the end, the pound for pound rankings come down to a fighter winning his fights against top ten competition. This is where Anderson Silva excels to the top spot. The question for the future is how impressive will his wins be compared to the destructive force that Fedor is showing once again. Is a :36 second trouncing of a huge heavyweight more impressive than a one punch KO of a non-ranked Light Heavyweight by a MW champion? In my mind, Fedor's win was much more impressive due to Fedor's inactivity, the doubt surrounding his abilities, and old UFC vs. PRIDE battle within the hardcore fanbase. As dead as the argument was, it still made this fight something all hardcore fans wanted to see.

If Fedor demolishes Josh Barnett, Andrei Arlovski, and Randy Couture in quick fashion, he will undoubtedly be labeled the best P4P fighter this sport has ever seen. For me, it's not only about his wins and record, but his pure skills as a fighter. Transitions, speed, quickness, power, and his ability to escape danger seem to surprise even the most hardcore fans everytime Fedor steps into the ring. Hopefully, casual fans will begin to buy into what Affliction is doing and tune in for Fedor. For now though, the UFC has one of the best P4P fighters in the world in Anderson Silva, and he is a treat to watch.

Let me know what criteria your P4P rankings would use. How would you stack the top three?

UFN 14 Recap & Analysis

Leland Roling — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:21:00 -0500

The card that the UFC put together in order to push the PPV buys away from Affliction: Banned wasn't exactly the most star-studded lineup we've seen from the UFC this year, but it did feature one of the most dangerous strikers in the sport in Anderson Silva. Did it live up to the hype? For the most part, fans got what they came to see, but the rest of the card was rather lackluster from the perspective of this hardcore fan. Let's check out some of the action...

Anderson Silva vs. James Irvin

I want to say one thing before we break down the short amount of time this fight actually took place. James Irvin didn't have a chance that night, nor did he have a chance a few weeks ago when this fight was beginning to gain some steam from casual fans believing Irvin's power would be a factor. Plain and simple, Anderson Silva is one of the best range strikers in the sport, and James Irvin has huge problems gaining the inside track on rangey opponents.

Silva is one of the most powerful strikers in MMA today at range. Not only has he been able to display his striking prowess in nearly every matchup, but he's been able to accurately and deceptively throw his power shots with full extension onto his opponent's chins successfully. His movement in the cage is well-trained, and using that movement along with his range striking will be a nearly impossible feat for anyone to overcome. Irvin never had the toolkit to move inside on Silva, but he did have the explosive history to potentially put a devastating blow on Silva's chin. Unfortunately, trying to kick Silva while he's at range was a huge mistake.

Silva caught the kick and immediately connected with a punch that ended the fight after Silva pummeled him on the ground from the punch's knockdown. If you bet the farm on Irvin, you probably weren't alone, but styles make fights. It surely wasn't a smart bet to put Irvin down as a winner when Silva's dominance, range, and deceptive power continue to be unsolvable.

Brandon Vera vs. Reese Andy

A huge disappointment for Brandon Vera, that's all we can really conclude from this fight. Joe Rogan pushed the theory that the weight cut had likely drained Vera's power during the fight, and Vera confirmed that the cut was somewhat of a problem. Andy definitely showed a powerful physique that could have been a problem to deal with, but the biggest flaw in Vera's game seemed to be his inability to pull the trigger in the standup.

Vera's reach and size to Andy's beefiness was unfathomable. Andy was lunging to land even the most simple jab while Vera clearly could have unloaded some choice shots at any moment. In the clinch, Vera was also dominating, but relenting at times. Hopefully, Vera can use the experience at the lower weight class to make his next cut to 205 a bit better for him.

Frankie Edgar vs. Hermes Franca

While I had some doubts about Edgar going into this fight, I wasn't comfortable enough with Franca's standup to pick him to win this one. Franca showed some decent jiu-jitsu on the floor to put Edgar in danger at times, but Edgar's relentless onslaught from the top proved to be the deciding factor in an easy decision win for him. Franca is still a dangerous opponent in the division though, and look for him to bounce back with a win in his next performance.

Where will Edgar go? He should be beginning to look toward the upper echelon of the division, but his loss to Gray Maynard has definitely stopped his ability to move up quickly. It'll be interesting to see who Joe Silva finds for Edgar to fight next.

Cain Velasquez vs. Jake O'Brien

The most impressive part about Velasquez is that he has been so dominating while making it look so easy. Jake O'Brien is mainly known for being a boring lay n'pray fighter for most of his career, but he's had to use his wrestling pedigree to set those types of fights up. Cain used his superior wrestling abilities and some nice reversals to stop that from happening. Once he was on top of O'Brien, he was relentless in landing strikes and ending the fight in impressive fashion. I'm ready to see Velasquez move to the middle of the pack.

Kevin Burns vs. Anthony Johnson

I don't have much to say here other than I believe Johnson was winning this battle until the eye poke occurred. To be perfectly honest, using palm strikes in an MMA fight is ridiculous even if you're protecting your hand. Granted, Burns was trying to win the fight any way he could with a bad hand, but palm strikes open up the potential for what happened to Anthony Johnson. Bas Rutten could probably teach you the correct palm strike technique pretty quickly... to the side of the head, not the eye.

Burns shouldn't get the win in this fight, and hopefully we'll see a rematch between these two in the future. My only worry is that Johnson looked gassed as we moved into the third round, and he needs to work on his cardio more. It's surprising considering he trains out of Colorado where high altitude training is considered normal.

CB Dolloway vs. Jesse Taylor

This fight went as expected with Dolloway not succumbing to Taylor's top control for very long. I didn't actually believe Taylor could work his lay n'pray on Dolloway like he had during the show due to the fact that Dolloway has some power and some good transitions on the floor to work with. At least this fight will allow Dolloway another chance in the UFC, and hopefully he will work hard to improve his skills enough to prove he can stay in this type of competition.

Other action...

Credeur over Yarbrough via TKO, Round 1
Markham over Farber via headkick, Round 1
Loughran over Ress via triangle choke, Round 1
Blackburn over Giboo via TKO, Round 2
Gugerty over Hartt via TKO, Round 2

Overall thoughts

It was the most lackluster card of the weekend for this writer, but it did show us some of the upcoming talent in the UFC. I like some of the acquisitions that the UFC made in terms of exciting the fanbase. Markham may not be the quintessential answer to the talent gap, but he's a damn exciting striker who never disappoints when it comes to knocking guys out. Blackburn was also another nice pickup from the IFL.

Kevin Burns is potentially making a name for himself in the UFC. Even with the controversial win that I believe he should have overturned, he lasted much longer than anyone really believed he could. He showed some promise, and with some solid training, he could become a decent middle of the road fighter in the UFC.

Velasquez is a monster, and it's only a matter of time before he gets matched up with a name people will recognize. If he can manage to win those key fights, his popularity and the UFC's aim to push the heavyweights could soon move into the spotlight. It's tough enough finding great heavyweight talent, and the UFC has landed on a potential goldmine in Velasquez.

The UFC doesn't have much lined up in the coming months, but Georges St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch should be enough for some fans to fill the void. I'm not exactly amped about the matchup as I truly believe GSP will steamroll Jon Fitch, but hey, prove me wrong.

DREAM.5 Recap & Analysis

Leland Roling — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:18:00 -0500

DREAM.5 could arguably have been the best card of the weekend in terms of action and great battles between top lightweights. While Affliction had some entertaining matchups and the UFC produced an Anderson Silva knockout, DREAM.5 pushed lightweight international stars into the spotlight with the final round of the Grand Prix. The most anticipated matchup of the evening pitted American Eddie Alvarez against T-Blood veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri, arguably a top 3 Lightweight. Undoubtedly, the winner would take on either Shinya Aoki or Caol Uno in the final. We'll break down the action...

Eddie Alvarez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri

This was one of the best fights I've seen from two lightweights so far this year. It was an absolute barn-burner of a fight with both combatants tagging each other with flurries for most of the fight. Kawajiri's typical controlling style on the ground was nullified by Alvarez's sprawl and brawl tactics for most of the fight, but Kawajiri was still able to land some significant flurries to Alvarez's face.

At one point during the matchup, Alvarez sustained a heavy cut under his eye that required some attention. Alvarez was allowed to continue and pushed the pace as Kawajiri continued to throw huge flurries that barely missed their final destination. As the round progressed, the flurries of punches were reminiscent of a Rocky movie, as Bas Rutten put it. Alvarez finally connected flush with a round of punches, and finished off Kawajiri with a powerful shot to the chin. Alvarez made sure it was over as he pummeled Kawajiri with hammer fists and hooks on the ground to end the fight.

I've always believed Alvarez had the tools to make an impact, but not the kind of impact he is making in the top 10 rankings at this point in his career. He has solid wrestling skills, a good sprawl, and powerful striking that can be technical at times. He possesses the all-around skills to make a run at being a top lightweight in the world, and it showed against the powerful "Crusher" in this bout.

Alvarez's chin should get a trophy for its performance against Kawajiri. Many sites failed to mention during their play-by-plays the amount of damage that Alvarez was sustaining during some of the flurries, but he was being tagged relentlessly during some of the exchanges. Although bloody from his cut and those shots, Alvarez continued forward to launch his own attacks that landed much more cleanly and with more power. Determination and scrappiness have come a long way with Alvarez, and fans should want to see him fight regularly. Welcome to the top 5, Eddie Alvarez.

Shinya Aoki vs. Caol Uno

The matchup between Aoki and Uno got a lot of steam behind it after Uno's impressive performance against Mitsuhiro Ishida. Uno is a legend in the MMA scene from his stint in the UFC and numerous battles with top talent in Japan, but his legacy can only go so far as he ages. Aoki surprisingly defeated "JZ" Calvancante in a fight that I must admit, I found it impossible for Calvancante losing. We didn't see a dominating Caol Uno in this battle, but more of a defensive Uno trying to keep the monkey off his back for most of the fight.

Aoki showed his grappling prowess for most of the matchup, and Uno defended the submission for nearly the entire battle. Aoki had numerous opportunities to submit Uno, and even worked multiple transitions in which he had a number of choices as to which submission he could pull off. Uno isn't exactly green in the ground game, and he was able to stave off being submitted by the premier grappler. It was a dominating performance by Aoki nonetheless, but it did wear on Aoki's conditioning.

Once the final's matchup had been made between Eddie Alvarez and Shinya Aoki, it became a question as to whether who was more tired or hurt. It was obvious that Alvarez's war with Kawajiri was going to be a factor, but Aoki was visibly tired after his decision over Uno. The decision to stop Alvarez from continuing was made later during the event due to doctors claiming Alvarez's cut was too severe to allow him to continue. Most of us called this a sham, and Alvarez was robbed of an opportunity to show the world that he belongs in the top 3. I imagine DREAM will give him the opportunity though in the future. After all, he did prove he can be an exciting fighter in front of the Japanese fans.

Joachim Hansen vs. Kultar Gill

Kultar Gill is an anomaly in this sport. An Alistair Overeem-like prospect at such a low weight class should be able to destroy much smaller opponents with his standup skills. Gill, however, has the unfortunate problem of having poor ground tactics and horrible submission defense. Hansen took advantage.

For the opening minutes of this bout, Gill used his range and knees to score some solid blows to Hansen. Hansen is known for being one of the scrappiest and grittiest fighters in the weight class, and a few choice shots from Gill didn't deter him from moving inside on Gill. Hansen ate a few more shots, but was able to obtain the clinch and eventually push the fight to the floor. Hansen displayed some slick transitioning from the armbar submission attempt to a triangle attempt and back to the armbar for the win. Although it didn't look good for Hansen early, his gameplan worked perfectly in exposing Gill's obvious weakness.

Gill could actually be a product in the future, but his jiu-jitsu needs to be improved dramatically. Even some work on his submission defense and sprawl would help immensely in helping him keep the fight on the feet where he is much more dangerous.

Hansen showed why he's still in contention for a top spot in the lightweight rankings. He has a well-rounded base in both the standup and ground game, and he's always active in trying to end the fight. Solid performance from Hansen.

Lightweight Grand Prix Final: Joachim Hansen vs. Shinya Aoki

As mentioned earlier, Hansen moved onto the final after Alvarez was not cleared to fight due the cut he sustained during the Kawajiri fight. I won't dwell on how unfair this was to Alvarez. We've learned over the years that things like this happen in nearly every promotion on the face of the Earth, so there really isn't any reason to argue over how ridiculous it was to stop Alvarez from fighting.

Aoki was the obvious favorite going into the final, but he had a much longer fight that Hansen while Hansen didn't have to work extremely hard to pull off the win in the reserve match. As expected, the battle hit the floor quickly with Hansen trying to work a strong top control game and punish Aoki.

I'll spare all the minor details and finish our analysis with this: Aoki is still susceptible to ground and pound, just like everyone else in mixed martial arts who tries to work a jiu-jitsu ground game. While Aoki has one of the most dynamic skillsets on the ground, Hansen was able to slip a huge right hand through his defense and knock him out. It wasn't the most exciting knockout we've seen, but it got the job done in handing Hansen the Lightweight Grand Prix belt.

Aoki isn't indestructible on the floor, and Hansen showed that this is mixed martial arts. Anything can happen. Hansen had a solid two fights during the event and remained fresh for the final after his first fight. I would have rather seen an Alvarez vs. Aoki matchup in the final, but I'm sure we'll see that pairing down the road in a future DREAM event.

Other action...

Daisuke Nakamura easily submitted Japanese comedian and K-1 fighter Andy Ologun in the first round. Very lopsided matchup with Ologun not even being a very good K-1 fighter let alone MMA fighter. Nakamura traded for a bit, but simply took the fight to the floor for the submission.

Yoshihiro Akiyama sported the gi for his fight, and easily picked his punches against pro-wrestling personality Katsuyori Shibata. Akiyama spent much of the round waiting for the right time to pounce. He eventually submitted Shibata on the floor with a gi choke at 6:34 of the first round. Uneventful battle for the most part, but Shibata might eventually be able to win some fights if DREAM actually wants to make some stars out of these guys who pull in wrestling fans.

Alistair Overeem made Mark Hunt look terrible by submitting him easily in only 1:11 of the first round. Both men came out striking with Hunt pushing Overeem to the floor quickly into the fight. Hunt went in for the kill, but Overeem was able to reverse the position and get a keylock sunk in on Hunt. Disappointing performance for Hunt. He needs to get back into shape after such a long layoff from the sport, and he needs to work on the ground a bit more if he wants to avoid being "clowned" in such a quick fight.

Overall Analysis

I wasn't able to check out the production of the event as I had hoped, but the fights were very entertaining. Eddie Alvarez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri is worth watching the event by itself. It was the perfect mixture of back and forth battling and sitting on the edge of your seat waiting for one man to falter.

The other matchups on the card definitely peaked my interest over the preceding week. Hansen being a reserve is always a nice addition, and even though Eddie Alvarez was robbed of his chance to solidify his mark on a top three ranking, Hansen was a nice fill-in. It obviously paid off huge for him, and it likely helped him redeem himself on some of his past losses.

Even with Aoki's loss in the final, his grappling is still some of the slickest we've seen from a lightweight. His ability to put an opponent in danger constantly on the ground is a valuable asset to have in avoiding damage, and he unfortunately wasn't able to control Hansen's wrists enough to stop the incoming barrage that ended the fight. It was controversial during his battle with Uno earlier because Aoki seems to be in love with grabbing his opponent's gloves instead of gaining wrist control. I'd love to see how the rules state that in the DREAM promotion.

Overall, I thought the event was a success and the most entertaining of the weekend action. Most of that is attributed to the lightweights being involved in the event, but as we all know, the faster action always prevails in the excitement factor. I look forward to the future events in DREAM.

Affliction: Banned – Video Recap & Analysis

Leland Roling — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 15:10:00 -0500

Affliction's inaugural event kicked off with some of the best heavyweight action that we've seen in quite a long time in any promotion in the sport today. It provided hardcore fans with some validation as to who is near the top of the heap in the heavyweight rankings. More importantly, the event brought together arguably the best heavyweight in the world in Fedor Emelianenko against what many consider a top three to five contender in former UFC champion Tim Sylvia. Also featured on the card were some cross promotional battles between the former IFL fighter Mike Whitehead and former UFC and PRIDE veteran Renato Sobral, and former UFC heavyweight Andrei Arlovski and former IFL champ Ben Rothwell. Josh Barnett took on Pedro Rizzo in a rematch from their previous matchup at UFC 30 in 2001. Check out the action in the video recap.

Fedor Emelianenko crushes Tim Sylvia (rear naked choke, :36 seconds)

Noone could have expected such a quick victory for “The Last Emperor” in this tangle between two of the top heavyweights in the world, but it certainly was thought about by many hardcore fans. In my analysis over the years of Fedor's overwhelming abilities in the ring, I came to two conclusions as to why he's so dominating that are somewhat displayed in this fight.

First and foremost, his standup is horribly underrated by nearly everyone who follows his dominance. For a heavyweight, Fedor is unmatched in his quickness and speed in conjunction with the amount of power he is pushing into his punches. The pure power he exhibits must be the most demoralizing piece in his punching game for anyone trying to get inside on him.

Even more scary, how can you even counter such a blasting force? Tim Sylvia had no answer, and it was reminiscent of his PRIDE domination of various fighters. The force of Fedor's punching was reacted to by Sylvia simply leaning to avoid the shots and Fedor pressing forward.

Second, Fedor's transition speed and game is unmatched by anyone in any level of the sport. For his weight alone, he's blazingly quick at finding the submission. He was able to move from the back, sink the hooks in, and easily push his hands through Sylvia's defense to sink the choke in. Impressive to say the least.

Is Fedor beatable? I don't believe he's beatable by anyone in the division at this point. Barnett has a shot, but it's a slim shot at that. Fedor looked unreal in the 36 seconds he was in the ring. He almost looked quicker and more tenacious than we've seen him in the past. If that's the case, get ready for a run that could make him the undisputed pound for pound best in the sport.

Andrei Arlovski displays his superior striking skills against Ben Rothwell

Andrei Arlovski vs Ben Rothwell Affliction
by ppdu13

I won't delve too much into this bout because it was a dominating performance for Arlovski in the standup war. It was apparent from the beginning that Arlovski's technical skills coupled with his raw power was overwhelming Rothwell in every exchange. Arlovski's leg kicks set up his punches well, and he even mixed in some attempted ankle locks to keep Rothwell guessing.

The only danger Arlovski ever entered was during the second round in which Rothwell toppled into top control and was able to land some hard elbows to Arlovski's head. It looked to be a glaring weakness in Arlovski's game that he was unable to get back to his feet, especially in having a Russian Sambo background.

Nonetheless, his striking was technical and powerful. He should be a dangerous opponent for anyone that Affliction can muster up to take him on, but I'd love to see how his quickness would hold up against Fedor. If his ground game was an indication of a weakness in his skillset during the second round, that matchup would likely end quickly.

Barnett unexpectedly KO's Rizzo!

Another tussle between a ranked heavyweight contender Josh Barnett and a face from the past in Pedro Rizzo. While Rizzo has some striking skills, Barnett clearly had the advantage when it came to the ground game. Surprisingly, Barnett stood with Rizzo and made him pay in stunning fashion with a second round knockout that swiveled Rizzo's chin spectacularly.

An uneventful first round in which Barnett tried to close the distance and shoot a couple of times was won by Barnett using some choice jabs and leg kicks. The second round couldn't come any sooner for fans looking to see a finish in this fight. Some more sparring leads to a huge connecting left hook by Barnett preceded by a missed right hook. Rizzo is knocked out instantly.

We can't overly analyze this fight due to the fact that Barnett didn't use his catch wrestling to end the fight quickly on the ground, but it does look like Barnett has improved his standup skills a bit in the training for this fight. He definitely made a statement in knocking out a standup striker in Pedro Rizzo, but it's been known for quite some time that Rizzo isn't in his prime anymore. Make Fedor vs. Barnett happen.

Sobral defeats Whitehead by decision

One of the more entertaining fights for me was the decision win by Renato “Babalu” Sobral over Mike Whitehead. Many fans simply found this fight boring, but it was clear that Sobral's striking game had improved. Whitehead wasn't exactly the best test of his abilities though, and Sobral had the clear advantage on the ground when it came to grappling.

Sobral's leg kicks punished Whitehead for most of the fight, and it made it increasingly hard for Whitehead to explode from his lead leg. Sobral's kicks to the body and head were also equally damaging. Sobral's aggression was seen throughout the fight as well. He pushed the pace, landed more punches, and fought off takedown attempts by Whitehead by reversing those attempts into his own takedowns.

Overall, it was a good performance for Sobral against a bigger opponent in Whitehead. Sobral should look to move up against a much more experienced and game opponent, and hopefully we will see him back in the ring against some top 10 competition soon enough.

Other action...

Vitor Belfort made his return to the ring at 185 pounds, and he looked much quicker in his striking and wrestling game than we have seen in a long time. Terry Martin stalked Belfort for most of the round with Belfort landing a solid punch, but Martin also getting in some exchanges with Vitor.

During the second round of battle, Belfort began landing more convincing shots. He stunned Martin with a punch early followed by a kick that causes Martin to move to the clinch and takedown. Unfortunately, Martin can't keep Belfort down and is punished with a flurry on the feet that knocks him out against the ropes, ending the fight.

Belfort was impressive in his quickness at times, but I'm still a bit hesitant to exclaim that Belfort is back. Nonetheless, it wasn't a bad performance for his first bout at middleweight.

Matt Lindland made his return to the ring for a mildly entertaining bout. Although he was battling in typical Matt Lindland fashion by controlling the ground and maintaining top control while pounding on Negao. It wasn't the most eventful fight we've seen from Lindland, but he did manage to show that his controlling style is still effective in netting him the win.

Gary Goodridge came in on short notice against Paul Buentello after Aleksander Emelianenko wasn't cleared to fight by the CSAC. Unfortunately for Goodridge, his cardio wasn't up to par on such short notice and he was defeated decisively by Buentello. Buentello's classic striking style was the deciding factor in this tussle. While Goodridge always has the power to put someone out quick, Buentello's technical prowess was on a different level than Goodridge, and it's surprising considering Buentello doesn't have enormous talent. He's simply a hard worker, and it showed in this fight.

Mike Pyle won quickly on the ground as expected, “Little Nog” destroyed Edwin Dewees with some heavy standup striking, and Mark Hominick had an impressive ground game to supplement his striking skills.

Overall thoughts

Although the production had some problems with audio and video going in and out and the commentating team was green, the production wasn't half bad. Megadeth playing before the Fedor fight was ridiculous, and highlighting the fact that Don Johnson was there was even more ridiculous.

Overall, the fights were entertaining. Many casual fans may not have enjoyed the card, but some of the technical striking displayed from some of the heavyweights was entertaining to watch. Sobral's standup has improved slightly, and it's good to see him get a solid win under his belt on his way back into a top 10 battle. Arlovski looked even more devastating in his striking, but he does need to work on his ground game a bit. Fedor looked indestructible, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we see Barnett vs. Fedor in October/November. I think Barnett will present a challenge, but I think Fedor can finish off Barnett in much of the same fashion using his quickness in the standup.

Hardcore fan perspective: Nostalgic Fedor brings Sylvia down!

Leland Roling — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:27:00 -0500

The arena turns to black... the crowd begins to cheer... and the ominous Gregorian chant-like Russian sounds echo throughout the arena giving this hardcore fan a chill down his spine. All the smiles and laughter during the pre-fight press conference were gone from Fedor Emelianenko's face, and the true meaning of "getting down to business" could be seen by fans watching from around the world. The nostalgic feeling that overcame me as he raised his arm in the air to acknowlege his announcement over the arena's speakers gave me a feeling of pride that I may finally see "The Last Emperor" topple the clouds of doubt among fans everywhere. His stoic look gave the premonition that Tim Sylvia had bitten off more than he could chew, and it was almost scary to see Fedor's concentration before the bout began. Like a kid in a candy store, my knees trembled in excitement at what was about to happen.

For weeks, hardcore fans had been excitedly awaiting the return of Fedor Emelianenko to the United States to take on arguably a top three heavyweight in Tim Sylvia. What transpired on Saturday evening wasn't exactly a fight, but more of a dominating performance by the once doubted Russian Sambo champion. Fedor came out patient and calm while Sylvia looked to gain an idea of what his reach advantage was going to do for him.

A few shadow punches later, Fedor saw the opportunity to throw his devastating quick right hand onto the side of Sylvia's jaw. As the punch landed, Fedor moved in for a clinch and connected with a solid uppercut that stunned Sylvia. The oncoming onslaught, which was seen perfectly by the cameras, was the most accurate and powerful punching display I've seen from a heavyweight in quite some time. Fedor landed nearly every single power punch on Sylvia's chin, a total of about six to seven blasts. Sylvia toppled to the floor and entered Fedor's world on the ground. Fedor tapped Sylvia with a rear naked choke/neck crank at only :36 seconds into the bout, and had proved that he is, in fact, the best heavyweight fighter that MMA has ever seen.

For this fan, it was a fight that needed to happen. The hardcore fanbase, as stubborn as they can be at times, still holds true to the nostalgic notion that PRIDE was an organization full of unbelievable talent that hasn't lived up to what it should have in the UFC. Did this ressurect the PRIDE vs. UFC argument? God, I hope not. In the end, all of these fighters need to eventually battle it out to determine who is the best. Do we need to sit around and argue as to which organization reigns supreme? In terms of PRIDE vs. UFC, PRIDE died long ago, but the nostalgic memories still hold true in our hearts as hardcore fans.

Saturday night gave me the chills of those epic PRIDE entrances when Fedor's music played over the speakers and his stoic look on his face entered the arena. It was an unbelievable feeling to see a fighter that you have so adamantly pushed to convince people that he is the best fighter out there succeed in dominating fashion. I'm sure many of the other hardcore fans out there get the same feeling when they go 9-0 on their predictions or see a fight end exactly how they had predicted it. This was a bit different though. Sylvia vs. Fedor was a fight that had some dangers for Fedor, but in the end, he proved undoubtedly that he has the tools to overcome any challenge in his division.

Congratulations to Fedor Emelianenko! Thank you for bringing the stubborn hardcore fans that we are a dominating performance and keeping hope alive that you are the fighter that we have believed you were for years. It's about time you stepped up in competition.

New posts coming this week...

Leland Roling — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 00:22:00 -0500

I'll have some time this week to start posting regularly again hopefully. The Affliction, DREAM, and UFC cards will all be recapped, but I must say one thing to all the doubters out there. Fedor's pure domination of Tim Sylvia was textbook of what I believed he would show to all the fans who haven't seen him in awhile. Fedor's underrated standup game has always baffled me when it came to what other critics thought. He's always been stunningly quick in his approach and also threw huge punches with power that simply look too fast for anyone to see.

Plain and simple, Fedor hit Sylvia with nearly 5-6 straight power shots consecutively on the chin. For a top 3-5 heavyweight that Tim Sylvia is, his defense was absolutely destroyed by Fedor's quickness. I hope this puts into perspective what heavyweights around the world must deal with. Fedor is truly the complete fighter, and he's a machine that will likely not be stopped anytime soon.

UFC inks deal with WOWOW, is there optimism in penetrating the Japanese market?

Leland Roling — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:38:00 -0500

According to Japan-MMA.com, the UFC has finally broken into the coveted Japanese market... somewhat. The site reports that the UFC will be shown on the WOWOW network in Japan starting in October. MMAPayout.com also concluded that WOWOW will also show past shows starting August 4th with coverage of UFC 71 to UFC 88 leading into the current lineup of UFC events in October.

While WOWOW isn't the ideal situation for the UFC in Japan, it is a starting point to potentially showing other outlets that the UFC could succeed in Japan. WOWOW is much like HBO or Showtime in the United States as it is a subscription network in which consumers pay a fee per month to enjoy their programming. If the UFC can increase WOWOW's subscription along with getting some decent ratings and fight fans interested in the UFC stars, there shouldn't be a reason why the UFC cannot move onto another larger PPV provider or network.

It may seem like this is the right step forward for the UFC in the Japanese market, but they still lack the matchmaking to make an impact in Japan. It has been proven time and time again over the years that Japanese fight fans relish the entertainment matchups over the quality battles that many hardcore fans covet. Fights like Aoki vs. Calvancante and Gomi vs. Diaz weren't huge number producers. On the other hand, fighters like Bob Sapp, Akebono, Kid Yamamoto, and television celebrities like Bobby Ologun have all done great in drawing huge ratings in the past.

Obviously, the UFC won't be creating matchups to push toward the Japanese audience on their cards that are mostly aimed at a United States audience. Entertainment cards won't be the push by the UFC, and the Japanese market is where those types of matchups make ratings. Nonetheless, the UFC could potentially turn some fans onto the cage fighting experience and the higher profile names that Japanese fight fans don't have the privilege of seeing regularly. Can the UFC begin turning a different market into a gold mine? Only time will tell, but if the past is any indication, the UFC will have a tough time appealing to the casual fans in Japan.

Sorry to our loyal readers, we'll be back soon

Leland Roling — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 07:52:00 -0500

A host of problems in the personal arena of life have hit hard here at MMA-Analyst.com, so we've taken a small break from breaking down your favorite upcoming events and analyzing the landscape of the mixed martial arts fight game. We'll be back hopefully in a week when I finally get my feet on the ground and running. I know some of you like our writing style, and we hope to start bringing you that again soon.

Who is your MMA Man Love? Monday Fun...

Leland Roling — Mon, 16 Jun 2008 11:56:00 -0500

As I drove home last Friday, I tuned into WSCR 670 AM in Chicago for a pleasurable mix of today's sports scores and talk. On Fridays, the network has a segment called “Friday Fun” with Bors and Bernstein. The premise of the segment is to ask a question and have listeners answer the questions with fun stories. Some of the questions range from “Dumbest thing you've ever done?” to “Which sports figure would most likely have sex with your girlfriend?”. Last Friday, the question of the day happened to be... “Who is your man love as a sports fan?”. Some fans would interpret this as homosexual innuendo, but the point of the question was to let men shout out respect to those sports figures they admire with some funny twist in the middle.

So... today, for the sake of having some fun with some of the readership... I want you to profess your MMA man love. Who is a fighter you absolutely respect due to whatever reason you want? Fighting style, aggressiveness, creativity, or do you have a story pertaining to a certain fighter that made you love to watch him fight regardless of how terrible he is in the cage.

I profess that Melvin Manhoef has been a “man love” of mine for quite some time. He only solidified my belief in him this last weekend by absolutely crushing Kazushi Sakuraba at DREAM 4. Here's a rundown of reasons why Melvin Manhoef tops my “man love” list:

1.He can draw in hardcore and casual fans

2.He finishes fights in stunning fashion in nearly every win, and he can take a whooping as we saw against Remy Bonjasky

3.You could cast Melvin Manhoef in any Hollywood horror movie, and he'd probably need no makeup or menacing CGI to help him out

4.He'd probably give the Hulk a run for his money

5.His size, power, and skills in the striking game make him a formidable opponent to nearly anyone in his weight class

6.Melvin Manhoef would be the perfect wingman... I.e. he'd scare other dudes away from the prey

While Manhoef is beatable, who really cares? He's entertaining and downright hateful in the ring. In tribute to Melvin, here's his fight against Sakuraba below (Smoogy will probably hate this...):

Regular posting to resume Monday

Leland Roling — Sat, 14 Jun 2008 05:25:00 -0500

Sorry to the readership here for the non-updates this week. Since I analyze MMA during the work week, sometimes WORK actually gets in the way. Swamped at work right now, but I will resume my usual analysis of the MMA landscape on Monday.

Not making weight needs tougher consequences...

Leland Roling — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 06:33:00 -0500

Within the last couple of weeks, an issue has arose that usually hasn’t caused too much of a fuss in the past when it comes to weigh-ins. Fighters usually make their contracted weight since they are professional athletes and are being paid to cut down to their respective weight classes. Unfortunately for the fighters, fans, and promotions, not everyone is able to make weight as easily as the next person.

Today, Thiago Alves, who is scheduled to take on Matt Hughes in the UFC 85 main event, missed his weight by nearly 4 pounds. He weighed in at a bloated 174 pounds.

To most fans, four pounds may not seem like a lot of weight to stir the pot over. Four pounds can easily be overcome by a small amount of strength, but the bigger issue here is that Thiago cut down from a larger weight. Obviously, only cutting down to 174 is going to allow him to be a bit bigger come fight time. Will this be a factor? Probably not, and there are other issues that arise when a fighter doesn’t make weight.

The most important issue is professionalism. These are professional athletes being paid to make their weight, fight their fights, and make a lot of money doing so if they can be successful. In order to make those dreams a reality, each fighter must rely on their opponents to make their scheduled weights as well. In this case, Hughes agreed to take fight with the overage, but it’s likely he will get a cut of the purse.

I ask this question… at what point does someone speak up and ask why these fighters continually miss weight without further consequences. Do we seriously have to put up with Gina Carano missing her weight nearly every single fight?

My solution… multiple offenders should have an escalating scale of disciplinary action. While the purse percentage is a perfect way to hurt these fighters who are missing weight, making weight should be a priority as a fighter gets close to their fight date. Gina Carano is making some good money, and 10% here and there may not hurt her much. How about we push some percentage on top of that if she misses weight again and again? What if 50% of her purse was on the line? Would she make weight then? I would think it would be a huge priority then.

World Victory Road: Sengoku III Preview & Predictions

Leland Roling — Fri, 06 Jun 2008 03:09:00 -0500

Since some of these fights are old guy vs. old guy, this is my disclaimer. If one of these idiots shows up completely out of shape, it isn’t my fault. Thanks, management.

Kazuo Misaki vs. Logan Clark

Looks like another attempt at Zuffa to get a win overseas in a win-win situation for them. A lower ranked fighter beats a well-known Japanese fighter? Didn’t work for Rani Yahya.

Anyways, Misaki has looked good in his last two fights. His battle with Akiyama was ruled a No Contest due to an illegal soccer kick KO, but the moments leading up to the KO still showed some improvements from Misaki. His striking was definitely a danger for Akiyama.

Clark is coming to Japan from the WEC. While he sports an 11-1 record, he’s fought a lot of subpar competition. If Misaki is truly on the rebound from his losses in PRIDE, Clark could be in for a rude awakening. After all, how can I pick against a guy who beat Baroni, Henderson, Kang, and Shooto champ Siyar Bahadurzada. I can’t.

Leland’s Prediction: Kazuo Misaki via decision
_______________________________

Hidehiko Yoshida vs. Maurice Smith

Battle of the veteran MMA gods, Yoshida is coming off a loss to Josh Barnett at Sengoku I while Smith is back after a win over Rick Roufus at Strikeforce at the Dome, the most boring card ever! At least YAMMA had Butterbean rolling on the floor.

Yoshida has fought much better competition over his career, although he’s lost nearly every single battle against top 10 competition. He’s a judoka with some decent submission game, but he’s been fighting on a less regular basis lately.

Maurice Smith hasn’t fought regularly in nearly 7 years, but has recently begun to make his way back into the sport. Smith has some decent standup and submissions, but I doubt he can catch Yoshida with a punch or submit him. Yoshida should have the edge, and his judo skills will likely be the culprit in putting Smith on his back. I’d like to think Yoshida can submit Smith in this one.

Leland’s Predictions: Hidehiko Yoshida via submission, Round 1
_______________________________

Nick “The Goat” Thompson vs. Michael Costa

This should be a win for Thompson all the way. Thompson has great wrestling, grappling, submissions, and some decent striking along with very good cardio. He’s a well-rounded athlete who can take it to opponents from the get-go or wear them down gradually. It’s a shame he hasn’t made his way back to the UFC just yet.

Costa has some submission abilities along with KO power, but it’s likely that Thompson will use his wrestling to control the fight on the ground.

Leland’s Predictions: Nick Thompson via TKO/KO, Round 1
_______________________________

Kazuyuki Fujita vs. Travis “I need a room with a” Wiuff

Fujita has fought the best in the world at Heavyweight. In fact, he’s only lost to top competition in the sport. He has a solid wrestling background and heavy, heavy hands coupled with the hardest chin we’ve ever seen in the sport. It’s next to impossible to knock Fujita out.

I don’t expect Travis Wiuff to try to knock out Fujita, but I will expect Wiuff to try to take Fujita down for some lay n’ pray fun. Wiuff has some ground and pound capabilities and is able to pull off choke submission from time to time, but against another wrestler like Fujita, we could see Wiuff falling like a tree.

Leland’s Prediction: Kazuyuki Fujita via TKO/KO, Round 2
_______________________________

Quick Picks
Mu Bae Choi vs. Marcio “Pe de Pano” Cruz: I haven’t seen the legacy of “Pe de Pano” in the UFC, but I’ve heard it’s quite humorous. Regardless, Choi will have some wrestling abilities in this fight while Cruz has the jiu-jitsu background to counter. I’ll go with Cruz due to his credentials in the grappling department and flexibility. Cruz via submission, Round 2

Kazuo Takahashi vs. Fabio Silva: Takahashi has a weak chin, and Silva loves to strike, what more could you ask for in a match tailor made for Fabio to win. Silva via TKO/KO, Round 1

Sanae Kikuta vs. Chris Rice: Kikuta hasn’t fought since 2006 in PRIDE, but he’s still a very tough submission fighter. He doesn’t have the finishing power for the KO, and he’s had problems submitting opponents in his more recent battles, but Rice is a straight up striker from Britain. Look for Kikuta to take this one to the floor quickly and end it. Kikuta via submission, Round 1

Jorge Masvidal vs. Rodrigo Damm: This should be an interesting fight. Damm holds some decent wins including a submission stoppage over Kultar Gill. He’s definitely going to try to get this to the floor where it favors him. Masvidal has a well rounded skillset though, and he’s got some able striking to punch out Damm. His training at American Top Team can only help him defend against the submission. Masvidal via decision

UFC 85 Betting Preview

Leland Roling — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 09:25:00 -0500

All odds are from BestFightOdds.com, aggregator to all the odds on various sites around the Internet. Check out their site for the best odds on each fight at UFC 85

UFC 85 isn’t shaping up to be a heavy betting event like some of the others we have seen in the past. For the most part, many of the higher profile fights have lines that are close to one another. Nonetheless, there still are some steals in the mix.

Vera vs. Werdum

While I believe Vera is going to have a significant standup advantage, it’s hard to say how well Werdum’s move to Chute Box is improving his striking skills. He may very well come out with much improved striking along with a size advantage. If he can use that size advantage on the ground as well, it’s very possible he could beat Vera there. It’s a risky bet, but Werdum is looming at +150 right now. A small bet might be something to think about.

Davis vs. Swick

Davis is sitting at EVEN to -105, but Sportsbook actually has him at +105 currently. I firmly believe Davis can crush Swick, and with some sites underdogging him slightly, it’s tough not to bet some small change on this one.

Lambert vs. Cane

If you believe that Lambert’s horrible boxing technique will show up once again against Cane, this may be the betting line of the evening. Cane has some great standup skills, but it’s hard to imagine Lambert not getting a takedown and pounding him out. Nonetheless, Cane could expose Lambert’s striking once again. At +135, it’s small bet worthy.

Hughes vs. Alves

A lot of fans think Hughes is going to win, and I’ll admit that my prediction of Alves winning isn’t solid. It’s definitely a chance. Regardless, Alves is sitting at +170 at the moment. For those fans believing in Alves’s standup game and Hughes’s aging skills, this could be the big bet of the night.

Liaudin vs. Taylor

I’ll include this one for the mere fact that Liaudin does have some submission skills that could catch Taylor. Sitting at +200 on most sites, it’s a nice 2 to 1 betting line.

Day vs. Bisping

+300 is a bit ridiculous for this fight for Day. While he isn’t a top middleweight, he still holds a solid record and has knockout power. For the chance that Day catches Bisping, big winnings could come from the 3 to 1 odds.

For some great betting action, check out BetUS. Join and receive $60 free with a deposit of $100 or more. Click the banner below to sign up or click here. Trust me, it definitely makes the lower ranked fights much more fun to watch when a small amount of change is involved, and ya never know, you might come out with some big winnings.