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Fri, 10 Jul 2009 01:00:00 -0400

The Mock Market Report

Fri, 10 Jul 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Since the official opening of Fantasy Football mocks on April 27, 2009, Mock Draft Central (MDC) users have participated in a record-smashing number of practice drafts.

This past week was sizzling hot, with full mock drafts running at all times of the day. Every Friday, The Mock Market Report will highlight the biggest movers and shakers from those drafts.

The current market remains relatively calm as the quiet before the storm settles over MDC`s Average Draft Position (ADP) report.

With a 7.2 percent drop in value, free-agent WR Plaxico Burress is one of the biggest movers.

At one time, Burress was considered a sleeper by many at his 11th- and 12th-round draft levels. That`s all changed, however, with a looming suspension and teams claiming no interest in signing the out of work wide out.

Look for the slide to continue, as many employed, non-suspended WRs with the potential to produce -- such as Isaac Bruce of the San Francisco 49ers and Muhsin Muhammad of the Carolina Panthers -- are currently behind Burress` 160.29 ADP.

The rest of this week`s movement has come at the backend of drafts, where many pass-catchers are making their ADP report debuts.

Among those appearing for the first time are a pair of rookie TEs with the potential to produce as members of a high-powered offense, Chase Coffman of the Cincinnati Bengals and Shawn Nelson of the Buffalo Bills.

The Bengals and Bills also have a WR moving up draft boards, Cincinnati sophomore Jerome Simpson and Buffalo veteran Josh Reed.

Other receivers making their debut this week: Bryant Johnson of the Detroit Lions, Jason Avant of the Philadelphia Eagles, Dwayne Jarrett of the Panthers, free-agent Matt Jones, Harry Douglas of the Atlanta Falcons and Chaz Schilens of the Oakland Raiders.

This has been The Mock Market Report for Friday, July 10, 2009.

Failing to catch on

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 01:00:00 -0400

On Wednesday, April 29, my friend Greg Ambrosius was kind enough to invite me to participate in the expert mock draft for Krause Publications` Fantasy Sports Magazine, which is available on newsstands now.

Starting rosters included one QB, TE, K, team defense and Flex (RB, WR or TE), two RBs and three WRs. Six bench players were also selected.

Scoring included a point-per-reception (PPR) for WRs and TEs, .5 PPR for RBs, four points for a passing TD, six points for all other scores, one point for every 10 rushing and receiving yards and one point for every 20 passing yards.

Here is the team that I drafted from the No. 9 slot:

Round 1, Pick 9: WR Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals -- It`s hard to go wrong in a PPR league with a guy who caught five or more passes in 18-of-20 games played in 2008. Fitzgerald was the No. 1 receiver on my board, and an easy choice after Titans RB Chris Johnson was selected at eighth overall.

Round 2, Pick 4: RB DeAngelo Williams, Panthers -- He`s not going to match his 2008 numbers, but there`s no reason that Williams can`t rush for 1,400 yards and double-digit TDs. It was hard to pass up Patriots WR Randy Moss here, but I wanted to grab at least one stud RB.

Round 3, Pick 9: RB Kevin Smith, Lions -- Quietly, Smith put together a decent rookie campaign with 1,262 total yards, eight TDs and 39 receptions. I think the Lions` offensive line will be improved this season, which gives Smith a good chance to surpass his 2008 numbers.

Round 4, Pick 4: RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos -- Looking back, I probably should`ve taken a decent No. 2 WR instead of Moreno, but I`m absolutely in love with the rookie`s upside.

Round 5, Pick 9: QB Tony Romo, Cowboys -- Another spot where I should`ve went with a No. 2 WR. I don`t dislike Mr. Jessica Simpson, but I could`ve used this selection on someone like Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez and looked at a comparable QB later in the draft.

Round 6, Pick 4: WR DeSean Jackson, Eagles -- I fully expect Jackson to improve upon his rookie numbers, 62 receptions for 912 yards and two TDs, in his sophomore campaign. I`m not sure, however, that those numbers will match those of other No. 2 WRs started in this league`s PPR format.

Round 7, Pick 9: WR Laveranues Coles, Bengals -- I loved this pick at the time, but am starting to cool on Coles some after the positive press that fellow Bengals WR Chris Henry is receiving this offseason.

Round 8, Pick 4: RB Leon Washington, Jets -- An explosive weapon that can rack up receptions and yardage quickly. Now all we have to do is get him a contract to his liking.

Round 9, Pick 9: RB Tim Hightower, Cardinals -- Not a huge fan, but I thought Hightower was good value at the end of the ninth-round.

Round 10, Pick 4: WR Ted Ginn, Jr., Dolphins -- The speedster is entering the all-important third year, where a lot of WRs bust out. If Ginn can continue to improve, he could flirt with 70 catches and 1,000-receiving yards.

Round 11, Pick 9: WR Plaxico Burress, Mean Machine -- Another selection I felt better about at the time. I`m really starting to believe that Burress will have a hard time getting on the field in 2009.

Round 12, Pick 4: RB Jerome Harrison, Browns -- A personal favorite of mine entering the season.

Round 13, Pick 9: TE Jeremy Shockey, Saints -- I waited a little too long to grab a TE, and ended up with Shockey as my starter. There`s some quality options left on the waiver wire should the volatile pass-catcher bomb again in 2009.

Round 14, Pick 4: WR Brian Robiskie, Browns -- The rookie was worth a gamble in the 14th-round. Looks like my bet may pay off, as Robiskie has a very good chance at being the No. 2 WR in Cleveland.

Round 15, Pick 9: DEF Green Bay Packers -- I had to draft a defense.

Round 16, Pick 4: K Neil Rackers, Cardinals -- I had to draft a kicker.

This league will be played out, so I will get to see some results.

I`m less than thrilled about the squad I assembled, as I clearly didn`t take advantage of the PPR format.

Jackson, Coles and Ginn are all decent options, but none of them offers the 100-catch potential of guys like Patriots WR Wes Welker and Broncos WR Brandon Marshall, who are No. 2 receivers on other squads.

Add in the fact that my No. 1 RB, Williams, won`t haul in a lot of passes, and I`m looking at a deficit that will have to be made up in other areas.

And in my opinion, this team isn`t good enough in those other areas to overcome its shortcomings.

Bowe knows mediocrity

Mon, 29 Jun 2009 01:00:00 -0400

On Thursday, April 30, my friend Roger Rotter was kind enough to invite me to participate in the expert mock draft for FOX Sports Fantasy Football magazine, which is available on newsstands now.

Starting rosters included one QB, TE, K, team defense and Flex (RB, WR or TE), two RBs and three WRs. Six bench players were also selected.

Scoring included a point-per-reception (PPR), four points for a passing TD, six points for all other scores, one point for every 10 rushing and receiving yards and one point for every 20 passing yards.

Here is the team I put together from the No. 3 spot:

Round 1, Pick 3: RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars -- I still have questions as to how Jones-Drew will perform as the undisputed No. 1 RB in Jacksonville. That said, the other options have just as many questions, and Jones-Drew has more value with the PPR format.

Round 2, Pick 10: WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs -- Two months later, I absolutely hate this pick; especially since I selected Bowe ahead of Cardinals WR Anquan Boldin. At the time, I was looking for big things from Bowe as the top option in the Chiefs passing game, but recent reports that the third-year receiver is out of shape have dropped him down my cheat sheet.

Round 3, Pick 3: WR Wes Welker, Patriots -- Simple equation: Welker plus a healthy Tom Brady plus PPR scoring equals fantasy gold.

Round 4, Pick 10: RB Knowshon Moreno, Broncos -- I`m predicting big things from Moreno during his rookie season. With a very good offensive line in front of him and a very average quarterback handing him the ball, I don`t think it`s a stretch to project similar numbers to Bears RB Matt Forte`s 2008 freshman campaign: 1,715 total yards, 12 TDs and 63 receptions.

Round 5, Pick 3: WR Eddie Royal, Broncos -- Back-to-back Broncos means one thing: I`m depending an awful lot on QB Kyle Orton ... yikes!

Round 6, Pick 10: WR Lee Evans, Bills -- I`m not sure of what to expect from Evans in 2009, but he seemed like too much of a value to pass up at 6.10. At the very least, he gives my team some wiggle room at WR3 and Flex.

Round 7, Pick 3: RB Leon Washington, Jets -- Looking back, 7.3 seems early, but I love Washington`s potential this year. I will not love it as much, however, if he sits out training camp because of a contract dispute. Get to work, Leon!

Round 8, Pick 10: RB Cedric Benson, Bengals -- Like Evans, I have no clue what Benson will do this season, but the upside at this point made him worth gambling on. If he works out, I`m looking at a solid No. 2 RB; if he doesn`t, I`m only out a RB4 and eighth-round selection.

Round 9, Pick 3: QB Matt Ryan, Falcons -- I missed out on Eagles QB Donovan McNabb by one selection, but didn`t sulk for long by adding Ryan. The addition of TE Tony Gonzalez will only help the second-year hurler improve upon his 3,440 passing yards and 16 TDs of a season ago.

Round 10, Pick 10: RB Tim Hightower, Cardinals -- I`m not particularly fond of either of the Arizona RBs, but Hightower at the end of Round 10 has the potential to work out.

Round 11, Pick 3: TE Dustin Keller, Jets -- It can be argued that Keller is the best pass-catcher on the Jets roster, so I was thrilled to land him here. I look for big numbers out of the second-year stud in 2009, as rookie QB Mark Sanchez will be looking his way often.

Round 12, Pick 10: RB Jerome Harrison, Browns -- Unlike Benson and Hightower, I`m high on Harrison for the upcoming season. Jamal Lewis looked done last season, so it wouldn`t be a surprise to see Harrison get some first- and second-down carries behind a very good offensive line.

Round 13, Pick 3: WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants -- Domenik Hixon isn`t a No. 1 wide out and Steve Smith is best in the slot. As a result, the ultra-talented Nicks will get every opportunity to crack the Giants` starting lineup.

Round 14, Pick 10: QB Shaun Hill, 49ers -- I wasn`t comfortable with Ryan as the only QB on my roster, so I grabbed Hill, a personal favorite of mine. I don`t buy the hype surrounding Alex Smith; Hill will be the starter in San Francisco come Week 1.

Round 15, Pick 3: DEF New York Jets -- I had to draft a defense.

Round 16, Pick 10: K Neil Rackers, Cardinals -- I had to draft a kicker.

Looking back, I`m not a fan of the team I drafted for one main reason: a lackluster WR corps.

Bowe, Welker, Royal and Evans will all be productive players, but it`s safe to assume that none of them will come close to matching the numbers of Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson or Randy Moss.

I do, however, like the depth my team has at RB.

Besides the two studs, I feel that at least one of the next four -- Washington, Benson, Hightower or Harrison -- will produce numbers comparable to those of a solid No. 2.

Overall, though, I don`t think there`s enough to compete for a championship.

Ifs the key

Mon, 22 Jun 2009 01:00:00 -0400

On Thursday, May 21, my friend Scott Pianowski was kind enough to invite me to participate in the expert mock draft for Lindy`s Fantasy Football magazine which is available on newsstands now.

Starting rosters included one QB, TE, K and team defense, two RBs and three WRs. Five bench players were also selected.

Scoring was standard/no-PPR, four points for a passing TD, six points for all other scores, one point for every 10 rushing and receiving yards and one point for every 20 passing yards.

Here is the team I put together from the No. 10 spot:

Round 1, Pick 10: RB Chris Johnson, Titans -- He`s obviously a much better play in PPR leagues, but still worth a first-round selection in leagues that don`t award points for catches. It would be a shock if the main weapon in the Titans` run-oriented offense didn`t come close to matching his rookie numbers: 1,468 yards, 10 TDs and 43 receptions.

Round 2, Pick 3: RB Brandon Jacobs, Giants -- I absolutely love this pick; how can you go wrong with, health permitting, sure-fire double-digit TDs at 15th overall? Jacobs` physical running style does make him a bit of an injury risk, but the value was too good to pass up.

Round 3, Pick 10: WR Terrell Owens, Bills -- While he may not compete with the top WRs in terms of catches and yardage, it`s hard not to see Owens near the top of the list for receiving TDs which is what matters most in this format.

Round 4, Pick 3: WR Roy Williams, Cowboys -- I like this pick ... I think. Williams is taking over as the No. 1 WR in what has the potential to be one of the league`s top passing offenses. That has to be good for something, right?

Round 5, Pick 10: RB Chris Wells, Cardinals -- Wells had trouble staying healthy in college which really makes me wonder about his transition to the professional game. The upside is there, however, so he made the most sense at the end of the fifth-round.

Round 6, Pick 3: WR Hines Ward, Steelers -- Has anyone in history ever felt good about drafting Ward? Even as my No. 3 WR, there`s still this feeling in the pit of my stomach that said I could`ve done better. Crazy considering Ward has been consistently producing third receiver numbers since 2001.

Round 7, Pick 10: WR Laveranues Coles, Bengals -- Not bad for a No. 4 WR, eh? I love Coles` upside this year; there aren`t many seventh-round pass-catchers who have a chance to make as large an impact.

Round 8, Pick 3: RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers -- Another gamble that can only help my team. There`s no doubt that Mendenhall is the RB of the future in Pittsburgh; if the future comes at any point during the 2009 season, I have some incredible depth.

Round 9, Pick 10: QB Carson Palmer, Bengals -- Not the ideal No. 1, but we all know what Palmer is capable of when he`s healthy and his offensive line gives him time to throw.

Round 10, Pick 3: RB Chester Taylor, Vikings -- I`m not counting on Taylor to produce anything for my team. If he does, it`s an added bonus at RB5.

Round 11, Pick 10: WR Plaxico Burress, Mean Machine -- This was my last chance to draft a No. 2 QB; instead I took a chance on Burress. Give me a call if you need bail money, Plaxico. I could use a solid fifth receiver.

Round 12, Pick 3: TE Jeremy Shockey, Saints -- The TE position has much less of a drop off in non-PPR leagues. If Shockey doesn`t get the job done, chances are good that there`d be someone on the waiver wire who could.

Round 13, Pick 10: DEF Green Bay Packers -- I had to draft a defense.

Round 14, Pick 3: K Neil Rackers, Cardinals -- I had to draft a kicker.

Without a doubt, the key to this team -- it`s not being played out -- would`ve been Palme`s ability to turn back into the pre-2008 QB that was a stellar option at the position.

I didn`t draft a second QB. Had I needed one, though, there would`ve been some options as Joe Flacco of the Ravens, Shaun Hill of the 49ers, Brett Favre of the Viki..., I mean, free agent all went undrafted.

The depth at RB and WR is insane, in my opinion, especially if Burress can stay out of jail and find a team.

And while I`m not a fan of basing potential success on "ifs", the tremendous upside of this squad is too hard to ignore.

From the gut

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

I`m often asked leading to August how I feel about certain players. And while I`m guilty of it every preseason, sometimes to a fault, there are players I`ll develop man-crushes on and will specifically target in drafts.

Some blew up in my face last season (see QB Matt Schaub and WR Robert Meachem), while others panned out (thank you to QB Jay Cutler, RB Pierre Thomas and WR Eddie Royal).

Who gets the nod in 2009? Players I`m specifically targeting include:

QB Drew Brees, NO
I normally hold off on this position until the middle rounds, but here`s my exception. In a perfect world, I`m drafting within the first five picks of Round 1 because this ensures I`ll have a shot at Brees either late in Round 2 or at the turn of Round 3. Brees is in the prime of his career and averaging 4,636 yards and 26 TDs the last three seasons while throwing it an amazing 1,841 times in the same span. He`s an elite signal caller in charge of one of the league`s best aerial attacks with a fantastic supporting cast.

QB Donovan McNabb, PHI
If I miss on Brees, I`m holding off until the middle rounds and McNabb is at the top of my wish list. McNabb, who recently had his contract restructured, is coming off an injury-free season where he threw for 3,916 yards and 23 TDs. Additionally, the Eagles reloaded on offense during the draft with the selections of RB LeSean McCoy and WR Jeremy Maclin. You can count on the Eagles to throw often and that means bottom line production.

QB Matt Schaub, HOU
I`m dipping back into the well with Schaub, who was on pace for a 4,000-yard season before missing time with injuries. If he can stay healthy for a full 16 games, Schaub`s potential to explode exists due to his supporting cast, specifically RB Steve Slaton, WR Andre Johnson, WR Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels. He`s been available in Rounds 8-10 in every mock draft I`ve done so far and there`s unbelievable upside if he`s paired with Brees or McNabb.

QB Carson Palmer, CIN
Say hello to this year`s best QB value if current draft trends hold. In two industry expert drafts I`ve participated in, I was floored to see Palmer available in Round 10. Granted, his 2008 season was ruined due to an elbow injury, but he`s healthy and the Bengals are a pass-happy team. The team also replaced WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh with a viable option in Laveranues Coles. Prior to last season`s injury, Palmer averaged 3,725 yards passing and 26 TDs in four seasons making him an elite option. Round 10? Wow.

RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
Tomlinson struggled with toe and groin injuries last season en route to career-lows in rushing attempts (292) and yards (1,110). He also scored his second-lowest rushing TDs of his career with 11 and turns 30 on June 23. So why list him here? Because he represents solid value where he`s currently drafted (sixth to eighth overall) and I`m not passing him over if I`m in those spots, which is the determining factor. Obviously, I won`t take Tomlinson over Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner or Maurice Jones-Drew, but in the sixth, seventh or eighth spot, pull the trigger. San Diego`s offense is prolific and he`ll have chances to produce.

RB Pierre Thomas, NO
The window of opportunity to get Thomas is either late in Round 2 or in Round 3. The third-year pro added 10 pounds of muscle this offseason and reportedly tips the scale at 220 pounds. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry last season and exploded in Weeks 11-16 with 677 total yards (475 rushing) and nine total scores. It`s forever wise to get a piece of a prolific offense and Thomas is a strong bet to break out in 2008. I`m not too concerned about Reggie Bush, who returns from his third knee operation in the last two seasons. Thomas should open the season as the clear starter.

RB Kevin Smith, DET
Forget that the Lions redefined mediocrity in 2008, note that Smith averaged 19.3 carries and 76.8 yards while scoring four times the last eight games of the season. If I miss out on Thomas, my fallback plan is Smith and you`ll hear zero complaints if I secure both.

RB Shonn Greene, NYJ
When the time arrives to address my fourth RB, which I typically do before Round 10, Greene is firmly entrenched on my radar. At 5-foot-11 and 227 pounds, Greene is a powerful runner and could see extensive action this season given the contract issues surrounding Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. Additionally, Jones will be on the wrong side of 30 when the season starts.

WR Randy Moss, NE
If you want Moss, like I do this season, you`ll have to pull the trigger in Round 2. Still, it appears current drafters prefer Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson and Calvin Johnson over Moss, meaning you could draft the season`s biggest rebound candidate based on the return of QB Tom Brady at a bargain.

WR Anthony Gonzalez, IND
Gonzalez is primed to explode this season now that he`s in the starting lineup alongside Reggie Wayne. Gonzalez displayed flashes in 2008 to be a dependable possession receiver and also an occasional deep threat. More importantly, the third-year pro has QB Peyton Manning`s trust, which is always a good thing in a prolific passing offense.

WR Laveranues Coles, CIN
Like his QB, Carson Palmer, I`m stunned to see Coles drafted in Rounds 8-10. Playing with Palmer offers Coles an opportunity to be on the receiving end of an elite signal caller. If you can get Coles as a No. 3, the upside for him to produce as a No. 2 is high considering Cincinnati`s propensity to pass with a healthy Palmer.

TE Greg Olsen, CHI
The Bears` acquisition of QB Jay Cutler will make Olsen an elite option this season. Cutler threw often to his TEs while with the Denver Broncos and made former teammate Tony Scheffler a star. Unfortunately, I already know if I want Olsen, who caught 54 passes for 574 yards and five scores last season, I`ll have to pull the trigger in Round 7 at the earliest.

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

Too much of a good thing is a good thing

Tue, 09 Jun 2009 01:00:00 -0400

On Tuesday, April 28, Chris Liss was kind enough to invite me to participate in the expert mock draft for Rotowire`s Fantasy Football magazine which will be released later this summer.

Starting rosters included one QB, TE, K and team defense, two RBs and three WRs. Six bench players were also selected.

Scoring was standard/no-PPR, four points for a passing TD, six points for all other scores, one point for every 10 rushing and receiving yards and one point for every 20 passing yards.

Here is the team I put together from the No. 11 spot:

Round 1, Pick 11: RB Chris Johnson, Titans -- He`s a better pick in PPR leagues, but still worth a first-round selection in standard leagues; though I would`ve preferred Rams RB Steven Jackson, who went one selection before me at No. 10 overall. Johnson is so slouch, however, as the main weapon in a run-oriented Titans offense.

Round 2, Pick 2: WR Andre Johnson, Texans -- I considered Giants RB Brandon Jacobs, but ultimately decided to go with a stud WR. There`s no denying Johnson`s freak talent and ability to put up big numbers. Well worth the second selection of Round 2, even with no PPR.

Round 3, Pick 11: RB Thomas Jones, Jets -- While I don`t expect a repeat of his 15-TD 2008, I don`t see any reason why Jones can`t continue to be a solid No. 2 RB, even with speedster Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene taking away carries.

Round 4, Pick 2: WR Brandon Marshall, Broncos -- I`ve dodged one bullet since the draft, as it appears that Marshall won`t be suspended to start the season. I don`t think the change at QB from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton will have as large an impact on Marshall`s numbers as many are predicting.

Round 5, Pick 11: QB Philip Rivers, Chargers -- When Kurt Warner and Donovan McNabb left the board at 5.9 and 5.10, respectively, I knew it was time to pull the trigger on a QB. Rivers was the choice over Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who ended up being selected with the final pick of Round 5.

Round 6, Pick 2: WR Laveranues Coles, Bengals -- With T.J. Houshmandzadeh in Seattle and Chad Ochocinco as volatile as ever, I think Coles has a good deal of value in 2009. It`s hard to argue with him as my No. 3 WR.

Round 7, Pick 11: RB LenDale White, Titans -- A 15-TD RB at the end of the seventh-round in a non-PPR league? Yes, please. I`m not huge on the idea of having both Johnson and White, but that`s just the way things happened to work out.

Round 8, Pick 2: WR Donnie Avery, Rams -- With three solid WRs already in the fold, I was thrilled to land Avery at this point. The default No. 1 wide out in St. Louis has a good amount of upside.

Round 9, Pick 11: RB Julius Jones, Seahawks -- Call me crazy, and many have, but I feel that Jones is being undervalued this season. 1) A healthy Matt Hasselbeck should open up the running game more. 2) The only other RB on the Seattle roster who will receive carries is T.J. Duckett. At the very least, Jones is guaranteed to have the ball in his hands which is more than you can say for most other RBs available at the end of Round 9.

Round 10, Pick 2: QB Carson Palmer, Bengals -- Wasn`t planning to take a second QB this early, but I just couldn`t leave Palmer on the board in Round 10. A Rivers/Palmer platoon is more than enough to get the job done.

Round 11, Pick 11: TE Zach Miller, Raiders -- Somebody has to catch passes in Oakland, and it might just as well be Miller, who is arguably the most talented pass-catcher on the Raiders` roster.

Round 12, Pick 2: WR Hakeem Nicks, Giants -- Decided to gamble a bit at WR5 and select Nicks, who I loved at the University of North Carolina. Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith are nice players, but they`re not starters on a playoff team; the Giants need Nicks to step up and be special.

Round 13, Pick 11: RB Jerome Harrison, Browns -- An exciting player who inexplicably only received 34 carries last season despite averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. I look for Harrison to get more carries on first- and second-down with a new coaching regime in Cleveland.

Round 14, Pick 2: Green Bay Packers DEF -- I had to draft a defense.

Round 15, Pick 11: K Nick Folk, Cowboys -- I had to draft a kicker.

Like most April drafts, this one won`t be played out which saddens me since I really like the team I put together.

The depth at QB, RB and WR is quite good, in my opinion, though deciding my starters on a weekly basis would`ve been tough had some of the late-round gambles paid off.

If deciding which talented player to start is my biggest worry about a squad, I must`ve done a good job.

Avoiding the traps

Wed, 20 May 2009 01:00:00 -0400

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

The NFL regular season kicks off in just over three months, meaning we`ve arrived to the tricky part of the offseason.

Teams soon report to organized team activities (OTAs) and we`ll be bombarded with information across the league. Unfortunately, some information ultimately ensnares numerous enthusiasts into overvaluing or devaluing players.

With that in mind, what follows should help with making informed decisions for upcoming drafts.

Offseason workouts

Too many are caught up in what is reported out of minicamps and OTAs. And this is all for a good reason -- we crave any information leading to August preseason games.

Note this is the official time of the year when coaches speak highly of players or single out individual efforts. And while you won`t hear a coach stating his aging veteran is washed up, you also won`t hear a coach point out his promising young wide receiver has hands of stone or can`t catch a cold.

The positive spin is in full effect heading into August.

Still, it`s important to not overanalyze offseason reports. Why? Because no hitting is allowed and the players aren`t in pads.

There`s a huge difference in how a player looks running in just a helmet and shorts with no contact to how they`ll look in August wearing full gear while facing defenders who have the green light to deliver a bone-crushing hit.

Use reports from minicamps and OTAs for informational purposes only and not hard evidence for a player`s projected production.

Coach-speak

"He`s a good football player," former Kansas City Chiefs coach Herm Edwards was fond of saying when asked about a player.

Most of us in the Kansas City media grew accustomed to hearing that statement at news conferences and after practices the previous three years.

Now I admire Edwards, a good man and a great person to talk to. But when translating his standard statement, it`s best to understand that the player better be good in the first place since he`s on an NFL roster.

The big word we`ll hear a lot in the coming weeks is "expect," as in a coach saying, "We expect him to see plenty of playing time," or, "We expect to open up the passing game."

Don`t overreact unless the coach says definitively that the player will see playing time. Of course, what the player does during training camp and preseason action goes a long way in determining if he`s indeed expected to see significant time once the regular season arrives.

As for the latter statement, which we heard from the Buffalo Bills last offseason, seeing is believing.

The SOS

Evaluating the Strength of Schedule is overrated at this point of the year. Once the regular season is underway, it`s important to note a majority of NFL coaches go back 3-4 weeks to game plan for the week`s opponent.

As such, it`s virtually impossible for our purposes to gauge overall defensive trends until after the first month of the NFL regular season.

Last year`s defensive statistics fail to factor in offseason free agent additions, personnel losses, the NFL Draft, change of head coaches, new coordinators, shifting of philosophies and impact injuries.

Using the latter as an example, the San Diego Chargers ranked at or near the bottom of most defensive categories against the pass. If you use that statistic without asking why, you`ll overlook the early season loss of linebacker Shawn Merriman, a pass rusher supreme, to a knee injury.

With Merriman out, San Diego`s pass rush suffered through just 27 sacks on the season, a far cry from the 42 registered in 2007 when Merriman accounted for 12.5 sacks. In fact, no Charger had more than eight sacks last season.

The team is taking it easy on Merriman during OTAs, but he returns this season. Toss in the team`s drafting of defensive end/linebacker Larry English, a solid pass rusher in his own right, and the pass defense will improve.

Additionally, an offensive elite player is elite for a reason and it shouldn`t matter who he`s facing. Are you shying away from Atlanta Falcons running back Michael Turner because he faces the traditional strong defenses of the NFC East or the AFC East this season?

On paper, I`ll agree that appears brutal, but you better factor in Atlanta`s acquisition of future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez, whose presence means safeties can`t cheat to stop the run. It would be shocking if Turner is facing eight-man fronts with Gonzalez underneath and wide receiver Roddy White on the outside.

If you`re using 2008 defensive stats solely as a baseline for 2009 projections and rankings, you`re already in the trap. What appears to be an easy or hard schedule for a player may not be the case once the season rolls along.

The rookie receiver

We love the impact rookie. And while it`s proven the position to lock on is running back, many insist on taking a rookie wide receiver before Round 10.

Folks, that`s a mistake.

There have been numerous high-profile receivers who enjoyed prolific college careers. However, it`s imperative to remember that since 1995 only six receivers broke out for 1,000 yards in their first season.

The short list includes:

-1995 -- Joey Galloway had 1,039 yards with the Seattle Seahawks
-1996 -- Terry Glenn had 1,132 yards with the New England Patriots
-1998 -- Randy Moss had 1,313 yards with the Minnesota Vikings
-2003 -- Anquan Boldin had 1,377 yards with the Arizona Cardinals
-2004 -- Michael Clayton had 1,193 yards with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-2006 -- Marques Colston had 1,038 yards with the New Orleans Saints

Unless you`re drafting for a dynasty or large keeper league, consider the above when gauging the overall value of Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin in traditional redraft leagues.

Both are sure to draw laudatory comments from coaches during workouts. However, the odds of either, or any rookie receiver, exploding for a 1,000-yard season are not on your side.

Staying informed

I make this point in my annual "D-Day is coming ... Draft Day that is" article, but it`s good to point this out now.

The industry is saturated with information, thanks largely to the Internet. However, the overload isn`t a bad thing because an informed owner is typically the most successful.

In the coming weeks, newsstands will be full of fantasy-related magazines. Feel free to buy them if you desire good reading, but it`s imperative to reinforce what you read in hard print by visiting respectable Web sites specifically designed for daily player news and updates.

The Mock Market Report

Fri, 01 May 2009 01:00:00 -0400

In the words of the immortal Hank Williams Jr., "Are you ready for some football?"

While Bocephus was kind enough to ask, I`m here to tell you: it doesn`t matter if you`re ready, the 2009 Fantasy Football season is here.

And nowhere is that more evident than here at Mock Draft Central (MDC), where in the last five days alone, we`ve hosted league drafts, mocks for upcoming magazines and our first expert draft of the season.

Here are some early trends from those early, post-NFL Draft get-togethers....

A clear `Fab Four` has emerged in both standard and PPR leagues as Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte, Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner and Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew have kicked off the majority of drafts, though not always in that order.

What happens at No. 5 overall is unpredictable, as Tennessee Titans RB Chris Johnson, St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson, Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald, San Diego Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson, Philadelphia Eagles RB Brian Westbrook and Carolina Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams have all been selected in the spot.

Add in Houston Texans WR Andre Johnson and Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson, and you`re looking at the first-round of the majority of drafts. Others that make occasional appearances in the Top-12 include San Francisco 49ers RB Frank Gore, Houston Texans RB Steve Slaton, Dallas Cowboys RB Marion Barber and Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis.

Four rookies drafted last weekend clearly stand out to Fantasy Footballers as Denver Broncos RB Knowshon Moreno, Cardinals RB Chris `Beanie` Wells, Indianapolis Colts RB Donald Brown and New York Jets RB Shonn Greene haven`t lasted to the 10th-round of a single draft.

Moreno and Wells tend to leave the board in the fourth- or fifth-round while Brown and Greene are most times a seventh- or eighth-round selection.

Rookie WRs have been receiving a good amount of love, as well, as Michael Crabtree of the 49ers, Jeremy Maclin of the Eagles and Hakeem Nicks of the New York Giants are selected in most drafts. Cleveland Browns WR Brian Robiskie has also received a good amount of attention.

At first glance, QB appears to be the deepest position in 2009 with many useful hurlers available come Rounds 7, 8 and 9.

It isn`t out of the ordinary to see most -- if not all -- of a talented upper mid-tier of gunslingers available come the start of the middle rounds. Included in that tier: Bears QB Jay Cutler, Eagles QB Donovan McNabb, Cincinnati Bengals QB Carson Palmer, Falcons QB Matt Ryan, Texans QB Matt Schaub, Kansas City Chiefs QB Matt Cassel and Giants QB Eli Manning.

While all of these drafts were held in April, one thing is likely to remain true until late-August/early-September: absolute craziness in the Fantasy Football world. Stay tuned to MDC, as we do our best to make sense of it all.

The Mock Market Report returns weekly on Friday, June 5.