MockDraftCentral.com NFL Football Articles

The Mock Market Report

Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:00:00 -0400

Since the official opening of Fantasy Football mocks on April 28, Mock Draft Central (MDC) users have participated in a record-smashing number of practice drafts. This past week was sizzling hot, with full mock drafts running at all times of the day.

A two-game suspension to start the regular season has lowered the Average Draft Position (ADP) of Carolina Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith nearly three selections, 10.6 percent of his overall value. As a result, Smith has dropped to the mid-third round of most drafts.

The value of the NFL`s other suspended high-profile receiver, Brandon Marshall of the Denver Broncos, leveled off this week despite the official announcement of his three-game game suspension. We`ll be keeping an eye on Denver wide receiver Eddie Royal during the upcoming week to see if fantasy players believe he can take advantage of his early playing time.

Over the past two weeks, Marshall has lost 16.1 of his value -- nearly 10 selections -- dropping the talented pass-catcher to the 21st wide receiver selected. Marshall now sits behind receivers such as Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions and Marvin Harrison of the Indianapolis Colts in the ADP pecking order.

Fantasy Footballers are partying like its 2003; as a result, the value of Miami Dolphins running back Ricky Williams is on the rise.

Questions surrounding the health of Ronnie Brown and positive words from coaches and front office staff have Williams, who is no stranger to suspensions, skyrocketing up draft boards.

The one-time fantasy stud gained a whopping 39 percent of value this past week, and currently sits just outside the top-100 players selected at 106th overall. Despite Williams` rise, Brown`s ADP remains steady at 34.77, making him the 34th player selected.

Two rookie running backs to keep an eye on: Ray Rice of the Baltimore Ravens and Tim Hightower of the Arizona Cardinals.

While their ADP sits at 173rd and 209th overall, respectively, it isn`t out of the ordinary to see the first-year backs leave the draft board earlier. Rice has been selected as early as 105th overall, while Hightower has been scooped up as early as 136th overall. Don`t be afraid to throw ADP out the window when it comes to the rookie duo.

Another running back making his way up draft boards: Pierre Thomas of the New Orleans Saints.

The word is starting to get out on Thomas, who played well at the end of the 2007 season. As a result, the second-year back has added more than 20 selections to his ADP -- which currently sits at 171.98 -- over the past two weeks.

During that same two-week span, veteran Saints running back Deuce McAllister has lost 20 selections from his ADP.

While it`s too early to gauge the ADP impact of the Brett Favre trade to the New York Jets and the release of Chad Pennington, we`ll be watching closely to see where Favre, Pennington, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery settle in during the upcoming week.

This has been The Mock Market Report for Friday, Aug. 8, 2008.

Creating a league to fit the players

Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:00:00 -0400

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

Are you new to Fantasy Football and want to step into the experience slowly, or have you played for years and need to spice up the experience? Setting up a league may not seem like the most important thing as the options all seem similar, but the options chosen will greatly impact the style and difficulty of the league.

Regardless of experience level, every league needs a set of rules. It`s best to create a lead handbook document and pass it out to all members and make them sign it. No, this isn`t taking things too far. It will avoid a lot of arguments later. Explicitly state everything in it that can possibly be an issue.

Outside of the standard rules about scoring, rosters, waivers, playoffs and money split (if involved), consider rules addressing trades, collusion and ensuring bad teams play out the string.

Before creating that rulebook, consider the audience and set it up accordingly. The goal should always be creating a league that provides enjoyment for everyone. A league that`s too challenging may turn off newcomers or casual players. A league that`s too forgiving may annoy experienced vets.

The Beginner League

The beginner league is about creating an environment in order to make things as easy as possible on the user. Stick with a major league provider as most provide weekly default rankings and lineup advice, which provides a safety net to avoid the truly abysmal teams from forming.

Set up the league with standard yardage (no points-per-reception), TD scoring and a standard lineup: QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, TE, K and DEF. Picking standard lineup requirements and scoring allows for more standard cheat sheets to provide reasonably accurate help for a newcomer.

Keep a short roster with 14 spots on it and put cap on the number of players available at any position at three. Set up your waivers in a worst to first processing method each week. The short roster ensures that plenty of talent exists on the waiver wire while the cap on players at a position will stop experienced players from hoarding all the running backs. The waiver priority will give worse teams a chance to improve.

Lastly, be generous with the number of teams allowed to enter the playoffs. The key is to get everyone involved and feeling like they have a chance, so going NBA style with the playoffs allowing half the teams in keeps most in the hunt throughout the season.

The Moderate League

This is the level most probably feel comfortable playing, and it only needs a few changes from the beginner league to remove the safety net.

Developing starting lineup requirements There are a wide variety of fun choices to use, and they are all acceptable for experienced players who should be able to alter their cheat sheets accordingly. One favorite is to go with QB, RB, 3 WRs, FLEX, TE, K and DEF. This lineup will play out as most teams using the flex player as a RB, but provides fair balance between RB and WR values.

Scoring changes are appropriate at this level, but should be considered carefully. Milestone bonuses, big play bonuses, reception scoring, or out of position TD bonuses are ways to significantly shake up your scoring system. However, be cautious when making changes and consider whether a change really makes sense or is just gimmicky.

The standard scoring system without the bonuses still may be best.

Expand the roster 14 roster spots simply are not enough for an experienced player. A 16-man roster should be the minimum and an 18-man roster is even better. Also any caps on the number of players at a single position should be removed. The deep roster creates a lot more need to draft well and prepare early which will benefit the more experienced and serious player.

Consider running with blind bidding waivers or a waiver order that only bumps a team down after they pick up a player so that a bad team doesn`t get first pick every week.

Limit the number of playoff teams This is about rewarding skill as opposed to making everyone happy. A team scoring at the top all year shouldn`t have the option to get upset against a No. 8 seed because everyone is invited to the playoffs. Limit your playoff slots to four teams or less for the league.

Consider playing a keeper league The keeper league is definitely for more serious owners and keeps everyone involved throughout the year. Teams in a keeper league have incentive to play the waiver wire all year long in hopes of finding players who can help them next season.

The Expert Enhancements

Skipped down to here? Congratulations and get ready for some serious Fantasy Football, as expert formats demand complete fairness in all facets of the game. No safety net can be provided, and the luck factor should be minimized as much as possible.

Not all of these options need to be considered, but any of them can really ramp up the competition and skill level required for a league. For things not listed here, consider the notes found in the moderate league section.

Choose the auction format The auction format removes all pre-draft luck in terms of drawing a good draft slot allowing every player to start the year with the exact same hand. Also, auction values aren`t easily captured in cheat sheets and will make it much tougher for to download a list off the internet and come out with a competitive lineup.

Waivers should be blind bidding format Blind bidding gives every team a fair shot at all players on waivers and ramps up the decision making process for a waiver selection considerably. No more luck in waivers and no more rewarding of the losers.

Consider adding QB at flex position One of the great crimes of Fantasy Football was when the initial creators designed the starting lineup requirements - two RBs were used to represent the full back and the running back in a normal team I formation.

The problem is that from an NFL perspective, only one player is the ball carrier which creates artificial scarcity and greatly inflated value for the RB position in fantasy terms. Adding a QB as an option destroys standard cheat sheet values, thus ramping up preparation time while creating a league where player values closely mirror NFL values.

Remove head-to-head scoring when determining playoff seeds While it takes away the individual rivalry everyone craves, the fair way to create playoff teams is to remove all divisions, conferences and head-to-head considerations going purely off of an all-play record. If rivalries are important in your league, perhaps consider saving 1-2 playoff spots for the teams with the best all-play record. That way, the one team who inevitably scores great each week, but goes against another scoring juggernaut, won`t lose out at the end.

In conclusion, creating a league isn`t rocket science, but minor changes can significantly impact the experience level and time commitment required to play successfully. There is no right or wrong answer in establishing a league, but there are methods to best fit the league to its players.

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

Fantasy Football: 20 Questions with Engel and Ice

Tue, 05 Aug 2008 01:00:00 -0400

The following article is a free preview piece from RotoExperts.com 2008 Fantasy Football Draft Central. The kit includes nearly 70 strategic advice columns, positional analyses, team previews, and draft tools, so register today at RotoExperts.com to see the full range of coverage.

How better to start your fantasy football prep than to get the skinny from two of the game`s most respected analysts` That`s what we think, so we`ve stepped out to present to you "20 Questions with Engel and Ice". We cobbled together 20 important questions on topics you need to address before your draft. With a combined 36 years of fantasy football experience, and numerous fantasy sportswriting awards between them, Scott Engel and Ben Ice are here for one thing: to help you draft a fantasy football team worthy of a king.

That`s right, you can get it "straight from the horse`s mouth" [so to say, not that we are insinuating anything about Scott or Ben of course!]...which players are the cream of the crop? Who is ready to breakout? Who`ll drop off in production? We`ve got the answers to those questions and much more.

But enough of the "blah blah blah" intro stuff. Ben and Scott...you`re on!

1. Who are your top three picks and why?

Scott: LaDainian Tomlinson is first off the board for me. He`s annually excellent and reliable at a position where there is more uncertainty than ever before, and you still have to start two guys. Plus, after how last season ended in Foxborough, Tomlinson will be primed to carry his team to the Super Bowl from Week One. I`m not worried about injuries with him. He has missed only one game in his entire career, and reports indicate that his knee is just fine. Tom Brady goes second, because you can`t really point to past statistical trends as a basis for a significant decline. This isn`t fantasy baseball. I need to hear more than just "he can`t do that again." Randy Moss returns, period. I don`t see how past history repeats itself when the players and circumstances are different. I`m not looking for coincidence -- that doesn`t play into my draft strategies. Third, I go with Steven Jackson. He is versatile and nearly unstoppable after he gets through the initial wave of defenders. He`s ready for a huge year.

Ben: As much as I feel he is a serious injury risk, Tomlinson has to be the first pick of the draft until he actually does crash and burn. While Scott doesn`t think football should be analyzed like baseball, I disagree, if simply because it is easy to ignore history. But history does repeat itself, and that`s been proven more often than LT has been a top draft pick, which of course means that Brady doesn`t make my top ten. With true one-back offenses on the decline in favor of more Running Back by Committee`s (RBBC), it is even more imperative to lock up a stud RB early. SJax becomes my number two selection, barely beating out Adrian Peterson. Both have had some issues with injury, but Peterson is younger, runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football, and is the most dynamic runner in the game this year. Even better, the Viking defense is likely to put them in great field position throughout the year, meaning more touchdown opportunities for Peterson. There is only only thing standing in the way of AP being a top two fantasy pick: Chester Taylor.

2. What players of note are you avoiding in the first round?

Scott: Not only will I not take Larry Johnson in the first round, I won`t even take him in the first three rounds, knowing how the offensive line and passing game will look. Johnson will simply have to work too hard for his yardage. Ryan Grant is more of a late second-rounder with Aaron Rodgers` inexperience, which should bog down their offense early in the year.

Ben: I completely agree with Scott on Johnson. I said last year that he was no more than an RB2, and people scoffed at me With an inexperienced QB, with the loss of their long-time offensive coordinator, and with an offensive line in massive decline (and frankly worse this year), it was pretty obvious to me that Johnson is in for a rough time. For reasons stated in my "Big Fat Claims" column, Brady is another guy I`ll avoid in the first round.

3. What 2 teams will most surprise us offensively?

Ben: Call me a homer, but I am also a believer in the Buccaneers this year on offense. Graham has proven himself as a quality starter. The offensive line was one of the most improved last year and should easily move into the top ten, especially with the addition of Jeff Faine at C. The St. Louis Rams suffered through a nightmare of injuries last year, and no part of the offense was spared. With Marc Bulger, Jackson, and Orlando Pace healthy and a defense on the rise, the Rams should find their way back as one of the more explosive offenses in the league.

Scott: Trent Edwards will confidently run the Bills offense and bring it to respectability, and that is enough of a surprise. Marshawn Lynch will be the centerpiece of the attack and a fine fantasy RB1. The Jets will also have a better passing game than expected, and Kellen Clemens will be a pleasant surprise in fantasy, while Jerricho Cotchery will score more often.

4. What 2 teams will surprise us defensively?

Scott: Seattle may be an elite fantasy defense this season. People expect them to be good, but not great. They will surprise people, because you may be able to get them in the final round, and they will outperform just about every other unit. The Seahawks have a deep rotation on the defensive line, the best group of starting linebackers in the NFL, and a very underrated secondary. The 49ers will keep scoring down more than in the past. They have a good back seven, and the secondary may perform above expectations.

Ben: I am a big fan of the Seahawks defense, but I don`t think they belong in the surprise category this year. Green Bay was my sleeper D last year, and I`ll stick with them to continue their rise. The Baltimore D was another of those units that disappointed last year, but they also suffered from injuries across the board. Haloti Ngata anchors a stout core of run stuffers, and the return of Trevor Pryce will give them the speed off the edge to create havoc. Even with future Hall of Famer Ray Lewis on the decline, the linebacker and secondary corps, led by Bart Scott and Ed Reed respectively, are still loaded with talent. They might be one of the more under-rated units overall this year, as I expect them to return to their perennial top five status.

5. What under-the-radar player excites you most for this year?

Scott: Darrell Jackson. I think he will be out to prove that he is not done and will do much better than expected with a fine surrounding cast in Denver.

Ben: Paris Warren had easily earned a spot as Tampa`s #2 receiver last year, but he suffered a broken leg in the last preseason game. With his leg mended and the Bucs in need of options to complement Joey Galloway, I think most people will be surprised at how productive Warren will be. He`ll easily be a last round or waiver wire selection and should produce as at least a solid WR3. 6. Quick Hit: Who`ll be the biggest bust in fantasy?

Ben: Frank Gore. His running style invites injury, and the 49ers haven`t done enough on the offensive line to allow him to get to the secondary untouched. Add to that the horrendous play at QB and an offense that ranked last in all categories, and you have a recipe for disaster. I don`t expect him to play the entire year, and that spells trouble for players who draft him in the first round.

Scott: Ryan Grant. Problems at quarterback will really hurt his weekly output.

7. Name 3 players you wouldn`t draft except in a parallel universe.

Scott: Isaac Bruce is the top receiver in a very weak receiving corps. Willie Parker is in for a steep statistical decline. Jon Kitna will ultimately be a much better coach than he is as a player.

Ben: Aaron Rogers, Alex Smith, and anyone on the Dolphins not named Ronnie Brown.

8. What are your top 3 kick return units?

Scott: Joshua Cribbs makes the Browns return game possibly the best in the league for fantasy purposes, assuming Devin Hester sees less return work in Chicago. Terrence McGee of Buffalo is not a great cornerback, but he is a major threat in the return game. Leon Washington will make the Jets D/ST unit worth consideration despite its defensive shortcomings.

Ben: Again, I am with Scott, this time about Cribbs and the Browns. Hester is still the elite return man and one of the most exciting players in the NFL. Even if he works out as a WR, he`s too explosive in the return game to not get plenty of opportunities. Andre Davis scored three return TDs and was second in the league last year with a 30.3 average per return. He will provide Houston fans with plenty of rousing plays again this year.

9. Who`ll it be in the Super Bowl?

Ben: Laurence Maroney will reach his potential this year as teams try to stop the Patriots passing game. It won`t work, no matter who they play in Tampa next February. In this case, it will be Dallas on the receiving end of a thorough thrashing.

Scott: New England finishes business, this time against Seattle, who will lose without controversy this time.

10. Give me one fantasy wasteland; an offense where fantasy value will be very hard to find.

Ben: Atlanta. Michael Turner won`t do much battling eight in the box all the time. Defenses won`t fear the passing game.

Scott: Tennessee. Vince Young is the offense.

11. Name 3 RB most likely to avoid injury.

Scott: Maurice Jones-Drew is never overused. Marshawn Lynch is very tough and will be highly reliable. Jamal Lewis plays in a very balanced offense and won`t absorb more big hits than he should.

Ben: MJD. Maroney is healthy, and New England has plenty of play makers. Willie Parker will lose the short yardage plays to Rashard Mendenhall, and he`ll serve as the lightning to Mendenhall`s thunder.

12. Name 3 RBs most likely to miss time.

Scott: Larry Johnson will be a major defensive target. Brandon Jacobs pays for his reckless style of running. With an expanded role, more injuries may come for Marion Barber III.

Ben: LJ, Gore, and Brown

13. Where do you take Tom Brady?

Ben: I won`t because he won`t be there in the second round, where I have him slotted.

Scott: Second overall. Major statistical production, very safe pick, and just like last year, everyone will want him. If I get him, the trade offers will come in all year, and I will ignore most of them.

14. When can we start taking schedule into account to factor into player values?

Ben: By the second half of the season, most teams will have shown their tendencies enough to factor matchups into your planning. That`s when I start trading for players with more favorable matchups during fantasy playoff weeks.

Scott: Never. It`s mostly based on last year, anyway. Don`t give me any charts or graphs, you`re just giving me an unnecessary headache.

15. Vernon Davis - Career bust or breakout player?

Scott: Breakout in about two more years, when the 49ers surround him with better receivers. Mike Martz can`t catch the ball, so he can`t help too much this year, although Davis should be adequate statistically.

Ben: Neither.

16. I want to wait to take a starting QB. Who to target?

Ben: There isn`t a year that goes by without a QB coming out of the pack to be a top 10 fantasy producer. Last year it was Derek Anderson. In 2006, it was Donovan McNabb, who was down on most everyone`s charts, and Drew Brees, who scared people away due to an off-season injury to his non-throwing shoulder. Before that, it was Kerry Collins in 2005... and so on. This year I`m looking at the much-maligned Matt Leinart as a late draft pickup, Eli, who will likely surprise a lot of people, and Matt Schaub.

Scott: You can`t actually target anyone ahead of time, because good drafters adjust on the fly, and you never know what will happen ahead of time. That said, Eli Manning is falling way too far in some early drafts. So is Philip Rivers.

17. Do you buy into the third-year WR theory, and why?

Scott: No, because formulas and axioms usually don`t hold fast in fantasy football. Find out what drives the numbers, but don`t tell me what they were in the past when talking about groups of players.

Ben: I don`t discount it completely, since there has been plenty of precedence. However, we see many more first and second year WRs breaking out these days.

18. How about the "Contract Year" theory, and why?

Scott: I take it seriously. Mushin Muhammad and Shaun Alexander did, too, a few years ago. One-year deals can work wonders as well. Money is a major motivating factor in a professional game that taps into emotions. "You ain`t gonna pay me yet? I`ll show you!"

Ben: I take it with a grain of salt, but that`s still only a small dose of skepticism. Players ARE motivated to make an extra effort, knowing a big payday will be waiting during the annual free-season spending spree.

19. What external factors most affect a player`s ability to deliver fantasy value?

Ben: I watch the off-season closely. With the level of talent being so close at the professional level, off-the-field distractions are almost always a harbinger of a bad year. Just ask Jamal Lewis or Tony Romo. On the other hand, I also like to see which players have re-dedicated themselves, usually with extremely rigorous off-season workouts. That is one of the reasons I am high on Leinart this year.

Scott: Again, football is a game of emotion. Local criticism can drive a player to either crumble further or quiet the naysayers. Divisional games often breed good numbers, because of familiarity. Coaches can build their game plan to exploit known weaknesses, and individual battles can raise the emotional levels of certain players to perform above usual levels sometimes.

20. Give me a golden egg; a tip of all tips.

Scott: Opportunity doesn`t always equal good production. Second and third-stringers aren`t sleepers just because the starter is shaky. Study depth charts and scouting reports, and choose your later-round sleepers carefully.

Ben: Don`t be afraid to trade, but don`t make foolish trades. Come to the RotoExperts Forum for advice on trade offers to make sure you are making the right moves.

These 20 questions and answers should set the foundation and framework for your house. You now have a base from which to operate, but the project is still far from complete. Much more information is available to you, so dig deeper to find other players to target and avoid. The RotoExperts Forum are fantastic resources for getting answers to even more of your fantasy questions, but browse through the rest of RotoExperts`coverage for a comprehensive outlook on the 2008 NFL season. Soon enough, you can straight up whip your league mates on the way to a championship season.

Tommy Landry and Kyle Stack haven`t slept since June 29, but they still can`t stop obsessing over who to take as #1 WR on their fantasy teams. Help ease their minds so they can get some sleep; email us with your favorite for the top WR spot and include the reason why. You just might see your opinion highlighted on RotoExperts.com! Send input to tommy@rotoexperts.com or kylestack@rotoexperts.com.

Doubling the QB fun

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 01:00:00 -0400

Some people never tire of fantasy football. They mock draft all day and night, and call out risky picks in the chat box treating it like a life and death situation.

Then there are those who get bored seeing the same players leave the board in the same order and surrender to the whims of auto-select and player rankings.

Some people like to spice things up by throwing in individual defensive players, others like to add rounds or change the scoring, and some keep raising the amount of everyone`s favorite incentive: money.

But there is another style of Fantasy Football that is gaining popularity fast because it adds very little but makes all the difference come draft time: the two starting quarterback league.

So what`s so contagious about this roster size that it`s gaining popularity, and as most enthusiasts report, is how they`ll continue to play Fantasy Football forever? After all it`s only one more quarterback to draft, right? Right and wrong....

Chances are a team will need a total of three quarterbacks, and you have to start two, so in a typical 12-team league, 24 of the NFL`s 32 starting passers will collect points on a weekly basis. Not to mention bye weeks which call for a third quarterback.

Remember, your prime motive is not to collect the best quarterbacks, but to take the players with the best value available. Yet the new roster requirements really throw a wrench in the spokes of previously understood Average Draft Positions.

Quarterbacks now begin to look like running backs in that they`ve become scarcer, so their value increases. Whereas Tom Brady was sometimes hanging around the first-round area, he`s now a sure top-five selection with Peyton Manning a few slots behind.

Even more shocking: Drew Brees and Tony Romo are first rounders, too. So what happens to Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, Marshawn Lynch and Reggie Wayne?

In terms of value they should go in the second-round, because quarterback value drops like dead weight after the top-tier. But with four quarterbacks off the board and the pressing need to fill two starting roster spots, the amassing pressure is likely to cause a premature quarterback scramble. No pun intended.

This is where the draft really gets exciting, because value based drafting tells you to take players where they are the best available selection, and to wait on players until the list dwindles down to their name. Yet not everyone always plays by those rules, no surprise really, and with new and unusual roster requirements, as soon as someone reaches it can cause everyone`s strategy to collapse.

The best advice offered in this situation is to keep your head on straight and examine your player rankings -- take the best guy available and don`t get sucked into quarterback reach frenzies. Although your quarterback projections might suffer from week-to-week, there`ll probably be a gem wide receiver or running back left in the dust cloud that could put your roster over the edge, allowing you to make up any lost points at quarterback.

Some have suggested taking two quarterbacks with first- and second-round picks, but who`s a good second-round selection? There`s lots of talent between Romo and Brees at the end of the first and Palmer and Roethlisberger in the third, and more than enough talent in runners and catchers to fill the second-round.

Reaching for a quarterback in Round 2 can cause panic when other owners begin to think their second quarterback will be stolen from under them.

This can be especially true for drafters who went running back-running back or running back-wide receiver, and still need at least one of the better quarterbacks. It would be wise to take your second quarterback in the second- or third-tier, and hold off on No. 3, because that last guy`s value is not worth a reach, not with the sacrifice you`ll be making at other positions.

Just remember, this is not the most common of drafting styles, but it attracts gurus and amateurs alike, so a congenial style of drafting is still in the works, making the draft a wonderful landscape for owners to throw the principles of value based drafting out the window and take back-to-back quarterbacks in two of the first three rounds.

Play smart, because with all the different strategies and players that can leave the board at any pick you could end up spending your entire selection time second guessing your options.

The Mock Market Report

Fri, 01 Aug 2008 01:00:00 -0400

Since the official opening of Fantasy Football mocks on April 28, Mock Draft Central (MDC) users have participated in a record-smashing number of practice drafts. This past week was sizzling hot, with full mock drafts running at all times of the day.

The king has been dethroned, as San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates has given way to Dallas Cowboys tight end Jason Witten as the No. 1 player selected at the position in both standard and point-per-reception leagues.

With Gates` status for Week 1 of the regular season growing murkier by the day, drafters have held off on selecting the former hoopster. As a result, he`s lost 11.8 percent of his value over the last two weeks -- nearly six selections -- and fallen behind Witten in the tight end pecking order.

Baring positive news, it`s very likely Gates will fall to the third tight end selected, as the current No. 3, Kellen Winslow of the Cleveland Browns, is within striking distance. Currently, Gates` Average Draft Position (ADP) sits at 46.35, while Winslow checks in at 50.45.

At the time this article was written, no suspension has been handed down to Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall. That hasn`t stopped drafters from moving him down their draft boards, though, as the talented pass-catcher lost 10.8 percent of his value this week.

Fantasy Footballers are waiting for NFL commissioner Roger Goodell to levy punishment against Marhsall, and with speculation having him sitting out anywhere from two-to-eight games, his ADP has taken a hit. As a result of the downturn, Marshall -- the 18th receiver selected -- has fallen out of the top-50 overall players.

The 19th wide receiver selected, Marvin Harrison of the Indianapolis Colts, has seen an uptick in value after training camp reports stating he looks like the Harrison of old. A 7.1 percent increase in value has moved the veteran wide out up to 55th overall, mid-fifth round levels of 12-team drafts.

Harrison`s resurgence did little to the value of Peyton Manning`s other targets as the ADP of Colts wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez, and Colts tight end Dallas Clark remained steady. The biggest change belonged to Gonzalez, who lost 2.2 percent of value, roughly two selections.

Believe it or not, it appears drafters think leaving the Oakland Raiders for the New England Patriots is a good thing. Or at least that is the case for running back LaMont Jordan, who switched coasts this week and gained more than a round to his ADP.

Jordan sits as the 190th player selected, just ahead of Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Warrick Dunn and New York Giants tight end Kevin Boss.

This has been The Mock Market Report for Friday, Aug. 1, 2008.

Starvin` for production from Marvin

Wed, 30 Jul 2008 01:00:00 -0400

On Monday, July 28, I was invited to participate in an expert league for Time Warner Cable and Metro Sports that will be discussed on the Fantasy Huddle television show in late-August.

Starting rosters were the usual one QB, TE, K, Flex (RB or WR) and team defense, two RBs and three WRs. Six bench players were also selected.

Scoring was also simple with four points for a passing TD, six points for all other scores; one point for every 10 rushing and receiving yards and one point for every 20 passing yards; and most importantly, one point-per-reception (PPR).

Here is the team I drafted out of the No. 7 spot:

Round 1, Pick 7: RB Marion Barber, Cowboys -- Though this was a PPR league, I still prefer Barber to Frank Gore for one reason: I know he is going to find the end zone. I`m not so sure of that with Gore.

Round 2, Pick 6: QB Tom Brady, Patriots -- I like to grab a stud WR in the second-round of PPR drafts, but Brady was just too good to pass up at 18th overall.

Round 3, Pick 7: WR Wes Welker, Patriots -- I consider Welker to be a top No. 2 fantasy WR, but don`t have a problem with him as my WR1; especially after pairing him with Brady. Double points, baby!

Round 4, Pick 6: TE Jason Witten, Cowboys -- I like the start with my No. 1-rated QB and TE mixed with Barber and Welker.

Round 5, Pick 7: WR Marvin Harrison, Colts -- Reports from Colts camp say he looks like the Harrison of old. Well worth the risk at 5.7 to see if those reports are true.

Round 6, Pick 6: RB Selvin Young, Broncos -- There doesn`t seem to be much in-between with Young: he`s going to be really good or a huge bust. Like Harrison, he was worth the risk where I selected him.

Round 7, Pick 7: WR Anthony Gonzalez, Colts -- A little Harrison insurance. If Harrison struggles with his return from injury, Gonzalez is more than capable of filling in both for the Colts and most importantly, Team Stein. Has some value as my No. 3 WR, as well.

Round 8, Pick 6: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants -- Bradshaw kicked off my personal run on talented backups that have the potential to be a solid No. 2 fantasy back if things fall into place.

Round 9, Pick 7: RB Ryan Torain, Broncos -- Take that, Mike Shanahan. Go ahead and pull Young out of the starting spot, fine with me. (Note to Shanahan: Please don`t start Andre Hall or Michael Pittman.)

Round 10, Pick 6: RB Kenny Watson, Bengals -- Rudi Johnson proved human last year, and Watson produced to the tune of 1,137 total yards and seven TDs.

Round 11, Pick 7: WR Devin Hester, Bears -- All three of my previously drafted WRs had the same bye; say hello to my Week 4 No.1 WR.

Round 12, Pick 6: WR James Hardy, Bills -- Can`t see any way Hardy isn`t the No. 1 red zone option for the Bills passing game. Say hello to my Week 4 No. 2 WR.

Round 13, Pick 7: QB Matt Leinart, Cardinals -- Say hello to my Week 4 starting QB. Is there any way I can play myself that week?

Round 14, Pick 6: K Nick Folk, Cowboys -- With Barber and Witten in the fold, I wanted to grab Folk just in case my guys can`t find the end zone.

Round 15, Pick 7: WR Drew Bennett, Rams -- Say hello to my Week 4 No. 3 WR. Do like Bennett`s upside in a PPR league, though.

Round 16, Pick 6: DEF Buffalo Bills -- I had to draft a defense.

This league will be played out, and with a break here or there, I like my chances. The keys, in my opinion, are Harrison`s ability to produce as a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy WR -- which would negate the hit I took by drafting Brady in the second -- and having one of my backup runners, Bradshaw or Watson, produce No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy RB numbers.

Fact or fiction: The third-year wide receiver

Tue, 29 Jul 2008 01:00:00 -0400

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

You hear it all the time when it comes to a breakout receiver -- target the third-year pro.

But should this be the golden rule?

I wrote a detailed six-page article looking at receivers drafted from 1995-2003 for RotoWire`s 2004 summer print magazine, and the stats showed 13 third-year receivers broke out during the studied span. Meanwhile, second- and fourth-year receivers tied with eight.

For our purposes, we`ll revisit how the "rule" holds with receivers drafted from 2000-2007 using an established standard for a breakout season -- a 1,000-yard campaign.

What are the statistics since 2000?

-248 wide receivers drafted
-Of the 248, 27 produced 1,000-yard seasons
-Of the 27, 13 have done it twice
-Of the 13, six have done it three times
-Of the six, three produced four 1,000-yard seasons
-Of the 27 to reach 1,000 yards, 14 are first-round picks
-Two seventh-round picks emerged as elite producers
-One undrafted receiver broke out in 2007
-One receiver drafted in 1996 experienced his first breakout campaign in 2007
-Special note: Only two players have gone over 1,000 yards eight consecutive seasons since 1999 -- Torry Holt and Marvin Harrison

The rookies
With three rookies experiencing breakouts, we`re reminded why it`s not wise to place stock in post-draft hype regardless of talent level entering the pros. If you need more proof, go back 13 seasons:

-1995 -- Joey Galloway had 1,039 yards with SEA
-1996 -- Terry Glenn had 1,132 yards with NE
-1998 -- Randy Moss had 1,313 yards with MIN
-2003 -- Anquan Boldin had 1,377 yards with ARZ
-2004 -- Michael Clayton had 1,193 yards with TB
-2006 -- Marques Colston had 1,038 yards with NO

Galloway, with three straight 1,000-yard seasons from 2005-2007, found the Fountain of Youth. Moss, Boldin and Colston are elite options, but Clayton`s rookie campaign was a fluke as he hasn`t gone over 375 yards since 2004.

The second-year receivers
Nine emerged including four of the league`s elite.

-2001 -- Plaxico Burress had 1,008 yards with PIT
-2001 -- Darrell Jackson had 1,081 yards with SEA
-2002 -- Koren Robinson had 1,240 yards with SEA
-2002 -- Rod Gardner had 1,006 yards with WAS
-2002 -- Chad Johnson had 1,166 yards with CIN
-2004 -- Andre Johnson had 1,142 yards with HOU
-2004 -- Nate Burleson had 1,006 yards with MIN
-2005 -- Larry Fitzgerald had 1,409 yards with ARZ
-2007 -- Brandon Marshall had 1,325 yards with DEN

The careers of Robinson and Gardner are categorized as busts considering both are out of the league.

Burleson is a role player in Seattle`s offense and Jackson, who has three 1,000-yard seasons, could re-emerge this season in Denver after a lost 2007 campaign with the 49ers.

Chad Johnson is the most consistent of this group producing six straight 1,000-yard seasons while Burress produced four. The third-year receivers
This group tied the second-year receivers with nine and includes two bona fide studs.

-2002 -- Laveranues Coles had 1,264 yards with NYJ
-2003 -- Santana Moss had 1,105 yards with NYJ
-2003 -- Steve Smith had 1,110 yards with CAR
-2004 -- Ashley Lelie had 1,084 yards with DEN
-2004 -- Javon Walker had 1,382 yards with GB
-2006 -- Roy Williams had 1,310 yards with DET
-2006 -- Lee Evans had 1,292 yards with BUF
-2007 -- Braylon Edwards had 1,289 yards with CLE
-2007 -- Roddy White had 1,202 yards with ATL

Smith has four 1,000-yard seasons, but overall, inconsistency dogs the third-year group.

Lelie hasn`t come close to 1,000 yards since 2004, and Coles, Moss, Walker and Williams can`t stay healthy.

It remains to be seen what Edwards and White do for an encore, but I don`t doubt Edwards, an elite talent, who should`ve emerged in his second season if Cleveland had serviceable quarterback play.

The fourth-year receivers

-2004 -- Reggie Wayne had 1,210 yards with IND
-2005 -- Antonio Bryant had 1,009 yards with CLE
-2007 -- Jerricho Cotchery had 1,130 yards with NYJ
-2007 -- Wes Welker, who signed with SD in 2004 as a returner after going undrafted, had 1,175 yards with NE

Bryant had talent, but lack of motivation got the best of him and he`s been out of the league since 2006.

Cotchery remains a solid option and Welker`s emergence last season was astounding considering his role as a slot receiver.

Wayne, an elite receiver with four straight 1,000-yard seasons, has something in common with teammate Marvin Harrison -- both emerged in their fourth year. Keep this in mind before going overboard with teammate and second-year pro Anthony Gonzalez.

The fifth-year receivers

-2005 -- Chris Chambers had 1,118 yards with MIA
-2007 -- Kevin Curtis had 1,175 yards with PHI

Most will target Chambers, who hasn`t produced another 1,000-yard season, before Curtis. While Curtis also has one 1,000-yard season to his name, he won`t compete with as many players as Chambers will. The sixth-year receiver

-2006 -- T.J. Houshmandzadeh had 1,081 yards with CIN

Houshmandzadeh joins Marques Colston as this decade`s only seventh-round picks to hit the mark (Donald Driver was a 1999 seventh-round pick for the Packers). He isn`t the big-play threat teammate Chad Johnson is, but it`s hard to ignore 202 receptions for 2,224 yards and 21 touchdowns the last two seasons. Think contract year if you want another reason to love Houshmandzadeh in 2008.

Better late than never

-2007 -- 12-year pro Bobby Engram posted career-highs with 94 receptions for 1,147 yards with SEA

Engram became the focal point of the passing game with No. 1 receiver Deion Branch out five games with a knee injury and No. 2 receiver D.J. Hackett missing 10 games with an ankle injury. However, it`s hard to imagine the 35-year-old sustaining that production.

Conclusion
It`s obvious when looking at 2000-2007 that second-year receivers have closed the gap on third-year receivers and you can no longer concentrate on the latter group. Keep in mind that two second-year receivers, who are covered next, fell 58 and 80 yards shy of hitting the 1,000-yard mark last season.

When contemplating a breakout season, consider opportunity and look deeper at the second-year group as the third-year receiver is no longer the golden rule.

Click here for overall stats.

Who breaks out in 2008?

Dwayne Bowe, KC
Despite ineffective quarterback play last season, Bowe led all rookie receivers with 995 yards. The sky is the limit for the talented second-year pro.

Santonio Holmes, PIT
With 942 yards in 2007, the third-year receiver is a logical choice to emerge in 2008.

Greg Jennings, GB
920 yards and 12 touchdowns last season indicate Jennings is capable of a third-year explosion.

Calvin Johnson, DET
Failed to achieve lofty rookie expectations last season despite playing in a fantasy-friendly Mike Martz offense, but Johnson, who produced 756 yards, was slowed by a back injury.

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

One-Man Mock Draft

Mon, 28 Jul 2008 01:00:00 -0400

2007 is so last year

Wed, 23 Jul 2008 01:00:00 -0400

In general, fantasy players tend to overanalyze. Not that there`s anything wrong with that. After all, there is a lot on the line: money, trophies, pride and most importantly, eight months worth of bragging rights.

One of the most overanalyzed facets of Fantasy Football is strength of schedule (SOS). For those unfamiliar with SOS and how it relates to the game, it`s basically studying which offensive players have the most favorable schedule -- against the worst opposing defenses -- for the upcoming season.

The main flaw to using SOS as a pre-drafting tool is that most of the information is based upon numbers from the 2007 season, which ended in December. In the four months since, the NFL has gone through salary cap cuts, a free agency period, the NFL Draft, arrests, suspensions and injuries. In today`s league, it`s possible for a team`s defense to dramatically improve or take a huge step backward in the span of a few months.

To show how big of a difference a season can make, let`s compare the defensive ratings (1-32) from the 2006 season to the 2007 season.

Last season, 13 teams (41 percent of the NFL) had a double-digit movement in their passing yards allowed per game rating from the year prior.

The biggest mover was the Saints, who rated 30th overall in 2007 after finishing the 2006 season with the NFL`s third best pass defense.

The numbers were very similar when it came to run defense.

Twelve teams (38 percent of the NFL) had a double-digit movement in their rushing yards allowed per game rating from 2006.

The biggest mover was the Eagles, who gained 19 spots on their rating -- moving up to No. 7 overall in 2007 from No. 26 overall in 2006.

Projecting strength of schedule can be tricky for one main reason: defensive statistics are highly overrated. Unlike baseball, football statistics don`t always tell the complete story about a team and its on-field play.

A perfect example of this is last season`s No. 4 rated passing defense, the Dolphins. The ineptness of the offense (rated 28th in the NFL in yards per game) and defense`s inability to stop the run (rated dead last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed) played more of a role in Miami`s opponents averaging 188.7 passing yards per game than superior talent and good coaching schemes. There was no need for opposing teams to throw the football with a healthy lead and successful ground attack.

When preparing for a draft, it`s best to look ahead, not backward. And while SOS may focus on the upcoming season, the numbers used come from 2007. Not good -- 2007 is so last year.

2008 NFL contract year players -- follow the money

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 01:00:00 -0400

Stay on top of NFL player analysis, rankings and feature articles with Fantasy Huddle, brought to you by Time Warner Cable & Metro Sports. Content republished with permission from original publishing company.

Money has a way of motivating people, and knowing who`s playing for a payday is a draft day consideration for many.

If you incorporate this strategy, below is a list of notable players in the final year of their contract.

QB Kurt Warner, ARZ
Team currently in extension negotiations with Warner, who proved his worth last season with 27 touchdown passes. Third-year pro Matt Leinart still has much to prove, but it`s difficult seeing the Cardinals commit a ton of cash to a 37-year-old signal caller.

QB Kyle Boller, BAL
Should open the season as the starter provided he holds off rookie Joe Flacco and second-year pro Troy Smith, but Boller will be on a short leash.

QB Jeff Garcia, TB
He`s made noise this offseason about his current deal, but the 38-year-old is well beyond his prime.

QB Rex Grossman, CHI
Signed a one-year deal in February and will need to have a special season for the Bears to commit to the erratic signal caller. Unfortunately for Grossman, Chicago`s offense appears anemic.

QB J.P. Losman, BUF
From a starting job to holding the clipboard for second-year pro Trent Edwards. Keep an eye on Losman, however, as he`ll be motivated to produce if afforded a second chance. It doesn`t hurt that the team`s top receiver, Lee Evans, is also in a contract year.

RB Steven Jackson, STL
The elite RB is easily the biggest name on this list, and Jackson is a stud with 5,835 total yards (4,249 rushing) rushing and 36 total touchdowns (30 rushing) since St. Louis drafted him in 2004. It wouldn`t surprise to see the Rams sign Jackson to an extension before the season started because there`s no way they let this franchise back hit the free agent market.

RB Brandon Jacobs, NYG
The Giants are thin behind Jacobs with backup Ahmad Bradshaw potentially facing league action for off-field issues. Signing Jacobs to an extension is on the team`s radar.

RB Maurice Morris, SEA
He`s in a crowded backfield and the Seahawks told you all you needed to know when they signed Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett this offseason.

RB Ricky Williams, MIA
Williams, 31, recently indicated he wants to play four more years, but he`s no longer the 2002-2003 elite option when he went on a two-season tear of 3,225 yards rushing and 27 total touchdowns (25 rushing).

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN
You have to admire Houshmandzadeh for not making his contract situation a distraction considering the circus surrounding teammate Chad Johnson. It would be a shock if the Bengals don`t reward Houshmandzadeh, who broke through in 2007 with 112 catches for 1,143 yards and 12 touchdowns.

WR Marques Colston, NO
He`s a restricted free agent (RFA) after the 2008 season and not an unrestricted free agent (UFA) like the others. As a RFA, the Saints have an opportunity within seven days to match any potential offer Colston signs during the free agency period. If the Saints decide not to match, the signing team owes the Saints compensation in the form of draft picks.

WR Lee Evans, BUF
Buffalo approached the Evans camp this offseason and will attempt to lock down one of the league`s best deep threats before the start of the season.

WR Roy Williams, DET
The fifth-year receiver is clearly unhappy with his contract and Williams, who has one 1,000-yard season to his credit, was the subject of numerous offseason trade rumors.

WR Bobby Engram, SEA
The 35-year-old pro is coming off a monster 2007 campaign where he posted career-highs with 94 receptions and 1,147 yards. With no contract extension entering July, Engram is threatening to hold out of training camp, and he has leverage -- Deion Branch (knee) may not be ready and the Seahawks lack experience outside of Nate Burleson.

WR Amani Toomer, NYG
The Giants drafted Steve Smith in 2007 and Mario Manningham this year with a view to the future. Toomer`s best days are behind him.

WR Shaun McDonald, DET
As Detroit`s No. 3 receiver, McDonald led the team in receiving last season with 79 catches for 943 yards and six touchdowns in the Mike Martz pass-happy offense, but the team will run more this season under new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto.

WR Devery Henderson, NO
Henderson, who signed a one-year deal in March, lacks consistency and drops too many passes. Moreover, he`ll have second-year pro Robert Meachem breathing down his neck.

WRs Mike Williams and Roydell Williams, TEN
Not the best options because there`s no clear pecking order with Tennessee`s wide receivers outside of Justin Gage. Still, someone not named tight end Alge Crumpler needs to be motivated to produce in the receiving game.

TE Eric Johnson, NO
Like teammate Devery Henderson, Johnson re-signed with the Saints for a one-year deal. The problem with this solid pass catcher is durability. He played for a contract in 2007 and came up small by missing four games and averaging 7.9 yards per catch in one of the league`s best passing attacks.

A trip to the Barber shop

Wed, 02 Jul 2008 01:00:00 -0400

On Monday, June 23, I was invited to participate in an expert mock draft for Fantasy Phenoms, a new up-and-coming website that I highly recommend.

Starting rosters were the usual one QB, TE, K, Flex (RB, WR, TE) and team defense, two RBs and three WRs. Six bench players were also selected.

Scoring was also simple with four points for a passing TD, six points for all other scores, one point for every 10 rushing and receiving yards, one point for every 20 passing yards and most importantly, one point-per-reception.

Here is the team I drafted out of the No. 9 spot:

Round 1, Pick 9: RB Marion Barber, Cowboys -- Playing in the Cowboys` high-powered offense along with 28 TDs and 67 receptions over the last two seasons made Barber an easy choice here. There`s no reason to believe the fourth-year pro won`t reach double-digit scores again in 2008.

Round 2, Pick 4: RB Laurence Maroney, Patriots -- I prefer to go RB-WR with my first two selections in a PPR league, but with Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne off the board, I didn`t want to go with my No.3-rated WR, Terrell Owens, since he plays for the same team as my first-round selection. ... I like Maroney more than most this season, as he did score a TD in eight of his final 10 games.

Round 3, Pick 9: QB Tony Romo, Cowboys -- Though I passed on Owens because he was a Cowboy, I couldn`t do the same for Romo, and in the process guaranteed my team a huge chunk of the Dallas offense that finished 2007 with the NFL`s second-rated offense.

Round 4, Pick 4: WR Anquan Boldin, Cardinals -- Boldin isn`t the 100-catch WR that I prefer in PPR leagues, but he was by far the best option available. The next three receivers to leave the board: Greg Jennings, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson -- I prefer Boldin by a large margin.

Round 5, Pick 9: WR Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs -- This pick scares me some, as Brodie Croyle looks to be the starter at QB in Kansas City. Bowe put up better numbers last season with Damon Huard under center, catching four of his five TD receptions from the veteran QB.

Round 6, Pick 4: RB Darren McFadden, Raiders -- I`m not sure where I stand on McFadden in 2008: he won`t be great, but I could see him being a productive PPR RB. For that reason, I couldn`t let him slide past me at this spot.

Round 7, Pick 9: WR Anthony Gonzalez, Colts -- At this point in the draft, the board gets really ugly, and I start looking for players with upside. Gonzalez certainly has a great deal of it, whether he is the No. 2 or No. 3 WR is Indianapolis.

Round 8, Pick 4: TE Todd Heap, Ravens -- The TE position is quite deep this year, so I don`t have a problem taking a gamble on the oft-injured Heap. If healthy, the ability to produce big numbers is there.

Round 9, Pick 9: WR Kevin Curtis, Eagles -- I`ll take Curtis as my No. 4 WR any day of the week. He`ll be the No. 1 in Philly with a stat line similar to last season`s 77 receptions, 1,110 yards and six TDs.

Round 10, Pick 4: RB Ryan Torain, Broncos -- Upside, upside, upside. I`d rather take a chance with Mike Shanahan starting Torain at some point than grabbing a mediocre 60-catch veteran WR.

Round 11, Pick 9: RB Michael Pittman, Broncos -- Upside, upside, upside. I`d rather take a chance with Shanahan starting Pittman at some point than grabbing a defense.

Round 12, Pick 4: K Nick Folk, Cowboys -- I was the first to grab a kicker, but with Barber and Romo already on my roster, I wanted to guarantee myself Folk.

Round 13, Pick 9: WR Devin Hester, Bears -- Like the rest of the free world, I`m less than impressed by the current corps of Bears WR; there`s a good possibility Hester ends up as the No. 1 before the season is up. The question then becomes: is that a good thing?

Round 14, Pick 4: TE Randy McMichael, Rams -- A little Heap insurance. ... McMichael was terrible last year, but I really think he bounces back this season in the offense of new coordinator Al Saunders.

Round 15, Pick 9: RB Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers -- Remember that whole upside late thing? Well, Williams with the ninth pick of Round 15 fits that criterion.

Round 16, Pick 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense -- I had to draft a defense.