The MoneyLine Blog https://themoneylineblog.com Applying science to sports wagering for a strategic advantage. Wed, 11 Dec 2019 08:30:44 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9.4 The NFL: Week 15 Early Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/the-nfl-week-15-early-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-15-early-analysis&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-15-early-analysis Wed, 11 Dec 2019 08:30:12 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=469 The NFL: Early Week 15 Analysis

Buffalo Bills (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (buy at +3 if possible)

Under 38.5 points Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Current number is 36.5)

(The lines provided above are good as of 11:20 pm on Tuesday 12/10/2019)

Did you miss us? We hope so! We took week 14 off since we saw no favorable match-ups that we were in love with. But this week, you’re in luck as we are here with an early analysis pick.

Buffalo Bills (+2) @ Pittsburgh Steeler’s (we recommend buying the point spread of +3)

Before the start of Week 14, the Buffalo Bills were listed as -1.5 point favorites for their match-up against the Steeler’s. Let’s play devil’s advocate…what if the Bill’s connected with their last TD pass across the middle of the end zone against the Baltimore Ravens and pushed overtime? What if the Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t score their special teams TD? Would the Bills be a 2 point underdog?

According to our systems, it seems as if the Bills should still be favored, across the board. We feel that they should be favored by 1 to 2 points. Every so often, Vegas will offer up a smoking mirror. We believe the Steeler’s being favored here is one of them. So for entertainment purposes, take the Bill’s (+2)…Buy an extra point if you feel like it’s worth protecting you from a loss by a field goal.

Under 38.5 points Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steeler’s (Current fair market value is 36.5 points)

Let’s say you’re not really feeling our Bills pick as the underdog this week. No problem, let’s feed you an under for that same game. Both defenses are top 10 defenses. The only difference is, the Pittsburgh Steelers rank 24th in rushing offense and 30th in passing offense while the Buffalo Bill’s are 9th in rushing offense overall (14th in rush offense at home) while they rank 27th in pass offense overall (13th in pass offense on the road). Yes, there should be some snow in the forecast but that doesn’t affect NFL games like rain and wind, do. So for entertainment purposes, take the under on this game. We prefer you take the under at 38 or 38.5 just to be safe. At 38.5, you provide yourself some cover from a push if the score happens to be 21 to 17.

Be sure to check back for our regular NFL week 15 analysis if we have one this Thursday or Friday.

Good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> MoneyLine Work Pool Picks: NFL Week 13 https://themoneylineblog.com/moneyline-work-pool-picks-nfl-week-13/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=moneyline-work-pool-picks-nfl-week-13&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=moneyline-work-pool-picks-nfl-week-13 Tue, 26 Nov 2019 08:55:04 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=466 These picks are projected teams to win their games for week 13 (does not include the spread) by one of our computer models. The percentages provided are chance of victory percentage. For entertainment purposes, see how they stack up against moneyline odds. Check back with us later this week for Week 13 NFL Analysis against the spread.

Chicago Bears 55% chance to beat the Lions

Dallas Cowboys 54% chance to beat the Bills

New Orleans Saints 66% chance to beat the Falcons

Green Bay Packers 59% chance to beat the Giants

Carolina Panthers 69% chance to beat the Redskins

Baltimore Ravens 57% chance to beat the 49ers

Indianapolis Colts 55% chance to beat the Titans

Philadelphia Eagles 66.8% chance to beat the Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs 64.9% chance to beat the Raiders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60.7% chance to beat the Jaguars

New York Jets 56.2% chance to beat the Bengals

Los Angeles Rams 57% chance to beat the Cardinals

Los Angeles Chargers 52% chance to beat the Broncos

Cleveland Browns 52% chance to beat the Steelers

New England Patriots 61.2% chance to beat the Texans

Seattle Seahawks 57% chance to beat the Vikings

]]> The NFL: Week 12 Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/the-nfl-week-12-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-12-analysis&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-12-analysis Sat, 23 Nov 2019 23:01:13 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=463 Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (we recommend buying at -2.5 if possible)

Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Washington Redskins

(The lines provided above are good as of 1:20 pm on Saturday 11/23/2019)

Week 11 has come and gone. Naturally, as we approach the end of the year, the picks get slimmer and slimmer as the lines get tighter and tighter. We nailed the Patriots (-3.5) pick as they beat the Eagles 17-10 in Philly in an absolute struggle. Our other pick was a shocking failure as the Bengals broke their 1st quarter scoreless streak and beat the Raiders 7-0 in the 1st quarter while we had the Raiders at (-3). Let’s dive into picks for week 12.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (we recommend buying at -2.5)

The Ravens have done their thing, absolutely steam rolling their opponents by way of the rushing attack. The Ravens are number one in rushing offense and it’s not even close. The Rams are 5th in stopping the run only allowing 89.1 yards per game and 4th in stopping the run at home only allowing 79.5 yards per game for home and away split. Baltimore on the other hand is ranked 7th in run defense but 11th at stopping the run while on the road giving up 100 yards per game. Baltimore allows 225 yards a game through the air while on the road, while the Rams are ranked 12th at home in passing.

According to our models, the Ravens should win by roughly 6 to 9 points but we wouldn’t be surprised if it came down to one of the lower key numbers of 3, 4 or 6. Reason being it’s a primetime game and the Rams may play up to the Ravens potential.  For entertainment purposes, we like the Ravens at -2.5…no more than -3. At the conclusion of Sunday night’s games, 2.5 was available and really hasn’t returned to that level since. However, you are allowed to buy this number at -2.5 if need be.

Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Washington Redskins

The Detroit Lions make their way East to face the Redskins. The Redskins seem like they have a lot of disfunction in behind the scenes. The change of coaches, the QB being unable to get the attention of his offensive line, and their offense is horrible. Ranking 26th in rushing offense and 32nd in passing, the Redskins average just under 13 points a game…making them the worst offense in the league.

The Detroit Lions aren’t exactly world beaters but their passing offense ranks 8th since Stafford has been out and they are an actual team. According to our models, they are due to win by 5 to 7 points for this game.

The Lions are favored by -3.5 points. For entertainment purposes, buy yourself the half point and bring the number down to -3. It’s worth the purchase if you win or push. Especially if you saw how the Texans(-3.5) vs Colts game ended on Thursday Night Football.

Honorable Mention

Last week’s honorable mention was the Jet’s at +2.5. This week we have another underdog with the Cincinnati Bengals at +6.5. We know, unfavorable. However, the Bengals showed life last week, more importantly the Steelers had a lot of controversy surrounding them as well as key offensive parts out this week. Last but not least, we ran this model over and over and the largest number to win by was 6 for the Steelers. This was before Juju and Connor were questionable. This game is a division rival as well and the Bengals have yet to win a game. If you need a 3rd pick, this shouldn’t be it but look for it to be a sleeper.

Good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> The NFL: Week 11 Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/459-2/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=459-2&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=459-2 Fri, 15 Nov 2019 09:20:00 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=459

  • New England Patriots (-3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (buy at -3 if possible)

  • Oakland Raiders (-3) 1st quarter vs Cincinnati Bengals

(The lines provided above are good as of 10:19pm on Thursday 11/14/2019)

If you were with us for week 10, we capitalized very comfortably on the Ravens at (-9.5) over the Bengals. However, we took an L on the Chargers at (-1) over the Raiders. The Chargers just couldn’t get out of their own way after going down 10-0 in the first quarter, but that’s sports. Hopefully you didn’t take any of our honorable mention picks, which we never encourage. Although Pat Mahomes came back, the Kansas City Chiefs defense didn’t. The same could be said for the Cowboys at (-3) at home. We get back on the horse and ride into week 11.

New England Patriots (-3.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles

This week, we have a play that we like but at a slightly lower number. The New England Patriots are heading to Philadelphia to play the Eagles with both teams coming off bye weeks. The Eagles coming off a strong win against the Bears and the Patriots coming off a humbling loss against the mighty Ravens.

According to our models the Patriots on the year according to when they play on the road should be 9 point favorites. However, over the last 3 weeks the Patriots have been giving up an average of one touchdown more on defense and scoring a field goal less on offense compared to their yearly average. On the flipside, Philadelphia has been scoring a touchdown less and giving up a field goal more over the last 3 weeks. However, the point spread with fair value is at 3.5 points.

Based on just the last few weeks of stats, we our models show the Patriots as roughly a 3.8 point favorite. While we like them at 4 points and 3.5, we would rather be safe than sorry and take them at (-3).

So, for entertainment purposes we like the New England Patriots at (-3) if you can get them. They were being offered throughout most of the week at (-3) for a premium. The last time these two teams faced each other was the big game a few years ago, and who could forget the Philly Special? When Bellichick has time to prepare during the regular season, he usually gets the job done. Let’s see if that still stands.

Oakland Raiders (-3) 1st quarter vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Oakland Raiiiiiiders (Chris Berman Voice) have been on a nice little 2 game win streak lately. After knocking off the “Los Angeles” Chargers last week they have an opportunity to pick up their third straight win against the worst team in the NFL, the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have scored ZERO points in the first quarter of the last few games. The Bengals are also sporting a new quarterback who got trounced last week against the Baltimore Ravens defense. However, lets focus on the team stats.

While playing at home, Oakland scores 8.5 points per first quarter at home and allows 1.8 points in the 1st quarter. The Cincinnati Bengals have visibly been awful all year and it’s partially due to their slow start. The Bengals average 2.6 points per 1st quarter on the road and allow 5 points per first quarter. More importantly, over the last few games, they have not scored a single point in the first quarter of the last few games but have allowed 6 points on average.

For entertainment purposes we like the Raiders in the 1st quarter at (-3) so look for them to strike fast. Our models estimate that the Raiders should jump out to one of their usual starts at home and should be up anywhere between a field goal to 7 points.

Honorable Mention

This week’s honorable mention belongs to the New York Jets, God help us. This line began at the Jets +1. Then it creeped up to +1.5 then down to +1 again now it is up to +2.5. Guys, the Jets are bad but they aren’t that bad. Regardless if the game is on the road or at home, the Jets are better than the Redskins…but can they execute. We believe so…but can we trust them? No, not enough to recommend to you. The Jets are better at QB than the Redskins, the redskins have not eclipsed 20 points since Week 2. The Redskins best attribute is offensive rushing but the Jets strength is stopping the run. For entertainment purposes, we had 2 plays that we made on this game: one of which is the home team (the Washington Redskins) to score under 20 points…the other play that we liked was the Jets (+2.5). Listen, we don’t trust em, neither should you. But the value is there in favor of the Jets…but we’d advise you to stay away from this game if you can…we took it though.

Good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> The NFL: Week 10 Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/the-nfl-week-10-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-10-analysis&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-10-analysis Thu, 07 Nov 2019 08:36:16 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=456

  • LA Chargers (-1) @ Oakland Raiders

  • Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

(The lines provided above are good as of 11:44pm on Wednesday 11/06/2019)

Welp, Week 9 was a total disaster for our picks. Posting by far the worst week of the last 3 weeks, we provided Zero value to you. However, the best thing about it is that there is always next week! Week 10 is upon us and lets quickly get into this week’s picks

L.A Chargers (-1) @ Oakland Raiders

After picking against the Chargers last week, we clearly made a mistake and underestimated them against the Green Bay Chargers. After last week’s defensive performance, it made us look a little deeper into the Chargers. For starters, the Chargers over the last 3 weeks have had the 4th best defense in the league. More importantly, for the year they are the 8th best defense in the league only allowing 18.7 points per game. This showed last week when they only allowed 11 points from the Green Bay Packers. More importantly, it was a home game that was filled with Packer fans. How do they matchup? Over the past few weeks, the Oakland Raiders have stepped up their offensive performance to 26 points a game however they are smack dab in the middle of the offensive rankings at 16th in the NFL for points scored. Although they have stepped up their offensive production, their defense is still trash as they are ranked 26th in points allowed. More importantly, as of late they have been trending much worse, giving up more points per game than the Jets over the last handful of weeks as well at 31 points per game.

For entertainment purposes we like the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. We’ve run the numbers a few times through different models and we feel like the Chargers should win by 1 to 3.5 points. The spread right now is (-1). More importantly, it’s a short week, and that means less preparation for both teams, with that being said, it comes down to the better team winning. We feel it’s the Chargers.

Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals

You’ve seen the destruction. You saw Sunday Night Football. You saw what the Ravens can do. So you know why we like this game. The Baltimore Ravens just took down the undefeated New England Patriots. They ran up 37 points on the best defense in the league. In addition, they held Tom Brady to just 20 points. They utilized zero coverage on a number of plays which Brady struggles against. He hates the blitz. Welllllllll, guess what folks, I’m sure they will pull that out again against the Bengals. The “Red Rocket” Andy Dalton will be out this week as a coaches decision. More importantly, A.J Green was supposed to return but he had not practiced as of Wednesday. This leaves the Bengals one dimensional with simply just the run. Look for Baltimore to put the clamps on that. Cincinnati is ranked 24th in defensive scoring, although lately, they have improved it’s still not good enough.

Looking at the numbers: for entertainment purposes, we actually have the Ravens winning by 10 to 13 points. Maybe even more, barring any let down from last week’s win. We feel like the Bengals are tanking and maybe in the Tank for Tua Sweepstakes (Projected 1st pick QB from Alabama). We’ll see how it unfolds.

Honorable Mention

We have two honorable mention picks, the first one is simple. For entertainment purposes, we would love to recommend the Kansas City Chiefs against the unpredictable Tennessee Titans…….but we can’t. What we do know is if Pat Mahomes gets to start, that (-4.5) spread will jump to an easy (-6). We love the way he was jumping around after the game last week, but we can never really know if he is ready. However, some of the staff loves his chances to play and locked him in at what they feel is a low number of (-4.5).

For entertainment purposes, the second honorable mention pick is the Cowboys  (-3) over the Minnesota. The question is, which Cowboys team will we get? Which Vickings team will we get? That’s just too much to think about. Some of the staff took the Cowboys at (-2.5) before they took the field against the Giants. Now the spread is (-3). We’ll let you decide what you want to do with this information.

As always, good luck and remember to enjoy the games this week!

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> The NFL: Week 9 Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/448-2/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=448-2&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=448-2 Thu, 31 Oct 2019 06:26:33 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=448
  • Detroit Lions (+2) @ Oakland Raiders try to get Lions at +3 if possible 
  • Cleveland Browns (to win) @ Denver Broncos (no more than -2 if you can get it
  • Week 9 Early Analysis Picks
(The lines provided above are good as of 11:04pm on Wednesday (10/30/2019)

Last week we gave you guys a nice gem. The Giants hadn’t scored a point in the first quarter for the previous 3 games leading up to week 8. Well if you stuck with us, you capitalized off that piece of information as they have now gone 4 straight games without scoring and the Lions won the 1st quarter last week. Hopefully we can give you a little more with this week’s matchups.

Detroit Lions (+2) @ Oakland Raiders try to get Lions at +3 if possible

Dear Detroit, we are back again! Yes, another Detroit Lions pick is coming your way. Yes, the Oakland Raiders are showing some life. Yes, they gave Houston a good run last week. But this week we are going to play the numbers and see where that goes.

The Detroit Lions handed the New York Giants another loss last week as expected but did not cover the spread. This week as (+2), 2 point underdog, the Lions are bound to break out to a fast lead as they usually do. Averaging 16.7 points in the first half as a road team this year, look for the Lions to gain the lead early. Usually the Lions always let their opponents back in the game for the 2nd half but Oakland’s home numbers are not that pleasant. In the 2nd half, the Oakland Raiders average 5 points a game and give up 8. Although these numbers seem low, the Lions give up about 16 second half points on average. For entertainment purposes, we still like the Lions +2 with the Lions up early and the game being close in the end.

Bonus Insight

With the information listed above, if you’re feeling frisky, keep an eye on the Lions to win the 1st half or for the Oakland Raiders to win the 2nd half.

Cleveland Browns (MoneyLine) @ Denver Broncos (no more than -2 if you can get it)

The Cleveland Browns have lost 3 straight and are heading to Denver. With no Joe Flacco to face and after suffering an embarrassing loss to the Patriots last week, the Browns are poised to go into Denver and put a W on the board. Cutting to the chase, some of our models love the Browns to win by 1.5 to 3 points before the Flacco injury. So, if we assume that Joe Flacco’s 6th round pick of a backup will not help the constipated Broncos offense, one could say that our models should be even more accurate. Some of the staff were able to get the Browns at (+1) and (+2) before the Flacco injury. If you didn’t get it at that point, we’re sorry. The current spread for the Browns is (-3) but keep in mind, this Browns team maybe fractured and you never know how that affects a team. This line has swung 5 points from its lowest to its highest. For entertainment purposes, we still like the Browns to win outright and at best we liked them at (-2) prior to the Flacco injury. It looks like we are playing it safe with that number, but we also prefer to eat steak instead of junior bacon cheeseburgers at the end of the night.

Honorable Mention

If you’ve been following along with us, you know we love to add our honorable mention picks, just in case you were on the fence about certain picks. Although we don’t recommend these picks, some of us on the staff do like them, personally.

Weirdly enough some of our staff likes the Chicago Bears (+5) in Philadelphia. It’s one of those games that you look at with the naked eye and say: “Philly should have this.” But then you crunch the numbers and you’re reminded of how good the Bears defense is and how many times Philly has let you down in big spots this year.

According to our sliding scale, the Eagles being favored at (-5) gives them a 40% chance at of covering. A value would have been about (-2.5) or even (-3). Lastly, the public ticket shows that 50% of the people took the Bears on the spread, the other 50% went with the Eagles. For entertainment purposes, you know who we like…but we just can’t recommend it to you due to the Bears quarterback woes.

Our last team up for honorable mention is the Houston Texans. Watching the numbers move from week 7 to week 8, the Houston Texans are currently trending downwards. But when we further look into the numbers, is it because the Houston Texans are allowing their opponents to stay in the games with them, or have the Jaguars been beating up on garbage the last couple of weeks…I think we’ll go with the latter.

The Jags have beat up on the Jets and the Bengals, two of the worst teams in the NFL at 0-8 and 1-7 respectively. The lack of competition has allowed the Jaguars to pad their numbers, as a result, making the Texans line close. Now, you can find the spread for this game at Texans (-1) at -120. But the MoneyLine is -122.

But all this is moot due to the fact that the game is in London. While we would love the Houston Texans in Houston or in Jacksonville, London is a different story. The field in London always seems to be poor. The players get into all types of mischief. The 6+ hour time difference can also be an issue. But if you're feeling adventurous, you know what we like...we just can't recommend it.

All the best this week and remember to enjoy the games. See you soon.

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> The NFL: Week 9 Early Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/the-nfl-week-9-early-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-9-early-analysis&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-9-early-analysis Mon, 28 Oct 2019 05:56:46 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=442

  • SF 49ers (-7.5) try to get it at -7

  • Green Bay Packers (-3.5) try to get it at -3 if possible

(The lines provided above are good as of 11:13pm on Sunday 10/27/2019)

Well as we march forward into week 9, we hope you were able to have a little fun with some of our week 8 picks. We tried to mix it up for you and if you like the Lions to win the 1st quarter, the San Francisco 49ners to win by at least 5 and the Packers to take it by 3 (if you got it early) or even 4 if you got it at game time, then congrats!! If you simply took Tampa Bay as your one pick of the day, then there is always next week 9.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals

“Buy Buy Buy” in the words of Jim Cramer! The 49ers opened up at -6.5 on the FanDuel app. If you were lucky to get your hands on em at that price point…kudos. If not, grab em at 7 while it’s still reasonable. At -7, our models all show that the 49ers will have a 59% 64% and 65% chance of covering the spread. After that beatdown the 49ers issued to the Carolina Panthers, the spread went up to 7.5 points in some places and 8 points at the Westgate in Vegas. The sharps will already have the edge and bet big dollars on this, swinging the number up to -9 or even -10 in favor of San Fran. Although, no game in the NFL is guaranteed, for entertainment purposes, you may want to side with the 49ers with this spread before it inflates to something unmanageable.

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers

If you’ve been watching, you’ve seen Aaron Rodgers dominate over the last couple of weeks. First against the Raiders with 5 TD passes and now against the Kansas City Chiefs in Kansas City with 3 TD passes. He has been extremely crisp and our models have confirmed that along with this point spread.

Over the last 3 weeks, prior to today’s game, the Chargers averaged 16 points per game, making them the 27th in the NFL in scoring offense and 15th in the league in points allowed. The Chargers point differential between points for and points against at home shows a -3.8 point differential. The Chargers allow nearly 24 points per game at home. This maybe partially due to the fact the Chargers don’t belong in LA because their fanbase there is weak. Look for this game in Los Angeles to feel like a home game for the Packers as the cheese head fans will be out in full effect. If you seen the game when the Steelers played in LA against the Chargers, you remember how the Steeler fans packed the place. For entertainment purposes, our models love Green Bay at (-3.5).

We still have some more picks so check back with us in the middle of the week and we’ll share them with you.

Til then, track all of our previous and future picks with The Action Network at: myaction.app/moneyline_blog

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> The NFL: Week 8 Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/437-2/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=437-2&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=437-2 Thu, 24 Oct 2019 05:40:07 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=437

(The lines provided above are good as of 11: 30pm on Wednesday 10/23/2019)

Well it’s week 8. Hopefully you’ve had an opportunity to catch some of the early picks why they were still at a manageable number. We will quickly pay revisit those at the end of this article.

 

Detroit Lions (-0.5) vs NY Giants "1st Quarter Wager"

Normally, we love whole game picks. Even first/second half picks. Today we are going to get a little creative on the numbers since Vegas got a little tight with the lines this week. So, what we have here is something simple, for entertainment purposes we like Detroit to win the 1st quarter vs. the NY Giants. Crazy, right? We didn’t think so either. Let’s see why.

In the last 3 games, the Giants have scored 0 points in the first quarter. In addition to this Detroit on the years has averaged 8 points a game in the first quarter and has given up only an average of 4. In addition, when Detroit is home, they average 10 points a game in the 1st quarter while only giving up 4.7 at home. Lastly, in the last 3 games, Detroit has gotten busy scoring 11 points a game in the first while only giving up an average of 2 points, showing a slight uptick in offense and defense in the 1st quarter. This tells us that their opening drive game is solid. But as the quarters go on, the numbers tend to drop, going from 8 in the first, to 7 in the 2nd, to 3 in the 3rd, to 6 on average in the 4th. This shows that that once teams make their adjustments to the Lions, it is highly effective.

 

Bonus play

If you’re interested, for entertainment purposes, consider taking the Lions in the first half if you feel like you need more leeway. The half number is -3.5. If you’re able to find it at -3, we’d feel more comfortable if you took that to combat any last minute 2nd quarter TD’s. Both the Lions and the Giants are on three game losing streak, so I’m sure both teams will come out swinging. The only difference is, regardless of the records, one of these teams are exponentially better than the other.

 

Tampa Bay Bucs (+2.5) @ Tennessee Titans (possibly +3 by Friday night if you’re patient)

If you were able to catch the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, they showcased Tannehill at home with a reignited offense. That was last week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a bye week and I’m sure they’re defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles has done his job researching Tannehill with his new team. In addition, with Bowles being a previous head coach to the New York Jets and playing Tannehill twice a year least year, I’m sure he took some mental notes.
According to our computer models, there were a few lines that were released this week had the favorites to beat the point spread with a success rate of 36% to 40%. This forces the bettor to either take the underdog or not bet. However, according to FiveThirtyEight.com the favorite is usually taken 65% of the time regardless of the probability of that team covering the spread. Don’t believe for a second that line makers don’t know this. So, let’s take a stab at them…for entertainment purposes let’s say we jump on the Tampa Bay Bucs at +2.5 points with a success rate of 60% to 64%. If you have the patience, there is a chance that this number may tick up to +3 between Thursday and Friday. So keep an eye out for it. We always love the +3 as it protects you from the typical loss by a field goal. If you tuned into the Tennessee Titans game last week, you saw how important the +3 was if you picked the Chargers as an underdog as they lost 23 to 20 to the Titans in Tennessee.

If possible, take a look at our "NFL Week 8 Early Analysis" article and if those lines are still available, consider looking into those. Be aware that Mahomes threw some passes in Wednesday’s practice. The Packers are dead smack in the middle of the pack (no pun) as far as sacks per game go, ranked 12th (4-way tie for 12 to 15th). With this being said, if KC decides to start Mahomes, it’s because of the mediocre pressure brought by the Packers. If Mahomes is ruled out, which is highly possible, jump on the number we gave before it shoots up to something unmanageable.

 

Honorable Mention

The Seattle Seahawks. The Seattle Seahawks. The Seattle Seahawks. Some guys on the staff loved them early at -3 and didn’t take them. Then we saw the slight uptick to -3.5. They loved it there as they watched Matt Ryan limp off the field and into the back. With the Seahawks getting handled at home and Matt Ryan’s ankle in question, (-3.5) looked beautiful because the number shot up to as much as (-7.5) in some casinos. Since then it has come down to (-5.5) but most places aren’t offering a line until Matt Ryan’s availability becomes available. If Matt Ryan plays and that number comes back down, maybe you should have a look at it. But as of right now the number of (-5.5) is a little high for a west coast team coming east at a 1pm start…but our models say it’s a fair value. Be mindful, there’s a reason why the line opened at (-3.5).

Good luck this week guys, and remember to enjoy the games.

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> The NFL: Week 8 Early Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/the-nfl-week-8-early-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-8-early-analysis&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-8-early-analysis Mon, 21 Oct 2019 07:53:05 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=429
  • Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs
  • San Francisco 49ners (-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (fair value is -4)

(The lines provided above are good as of 11:49pm on Sunday 10/20/2019.)

Welcome back to the MoneyLine Blog! If your back, hopefully you are back with all smiles!

After a fairly successful Week 7, we are back. For entertainment purposes, if you went with any of our picks of the week you went 2 for 3. If you were brave enough to add  our honorable mentions picks you had a damn good weekend going adding an extra two wins to your total and went 4 for 5. Hopefully you were also able to get a little something extra on the side with our bonus picks on the Rams winning the first half over the Falcons. In addition to that, we hope you capitalized on the 2nd half total of the Rams vs Falcons being more than the first half total in that game. Now it's all in the past. Lets get down to business for week 8.

The early bird gets the worm and if you have access to early lines, you may be looking for an advantage to start the week. At this point, we have 2 plays that we felt comfortable on.

Green Bay Packers (-3) @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Packers squeaked out a win last week with the help of the refs in the 4th quarter. In the NFL a win is a win. The Packers went into week 7 with a lackluster receiving core as it was basically the Aaron Rodgers show as he blasted through the Raiders tossing 6 TD passes. Remember how the Packers boasted that defense in the first two games and it looked like Green Bay would lean on their D for the season (no pun)? Welp, in the last 3 weeks heading into week 7, Green Bay was the 9th worst defense in the league allowing a startling 26.7 points a game. Luckily for them, over the same period of time, they have averaged 28 points leaving them top 10 in the league in scoring offense (6th ranked). This all helps them as they head to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs.

The Chiefs will be without Pat Mahomes in this matchup. That is a big blow this offense as Mahomes is seen to be worth about 7 points to the spread as reported by The Score. Usually when a team is at home, they play better than on the road. With this being said, it’s a complete surprise that the Chiefs usually win by an average of 15 points on the road over 3 games while they at home by an average of 2.7 points at home over 3 games. Now that they are starting Matt Moore, who was also preparing to be a high school football coach this year as reported by the LA Times we should expect these numbers to drop. Before Moore took over for Mahomes on October 17th, the last NFL action he saw was Week 12 of the 2017 season with the Miami Dolphins. Moore, 35, did not play in the NFL season and when he took over for Mahomes, he led the offense to 10 points while the defense picked up an extra 7 over 2.5 quarters. Although the touchdown pass he threw up was a bit of a fluke, it still counts, but it was clear that the Kansas City offense had stalled without it’s MVP.

The spread opened up on October 18th at -3 with Green Bay as a favorite heading to Arrowhead. For entertainment purposes we liked the -3 on Friday. Although our charts read a fair value of -1, we felt that the value could be inflated if the Packers won and beat the spread against Oakland. Before the game started, some “sharp” folks took action on Kansas City’s +3 and drove the value of the Packers to the fair number of -1. With this being side if we liked -3 on Friday, we loved -1 on Saturday. Sure enough after the big victory against Oakland, the spread is back up to -3. Although we haven’t crunched the new numbers on Green Bay as of yet, we believe that -3 for the Packers is extremely fair and in some cases without Mahomes, a steal.

San Francisco 49ners (-5) vs. Carolina Panthers

After watching San Francisco put up 9 points in a DMV (District/Maryland/Virginia) mini flood against the Redskins, we are left to wonder what may happen when the Panthers come to town, right? Hopefully not. The 49ners gave up 0 points, and although they did not cover the spread, they did assert their dominance in the nastiest of weather that we’ve seen this season. A 1pm start for a west coast team, on the east coast, feels like 10 am. So, between jetlag and a 10am mental start, the argument could be made that the 49ners did a hell of a job in their performance. Whatever the case maybe, lets run some numbers.

At the time of this article, the 49ners are tied at 6-0 for the best record in the league with the Patriots. They usually win their home games on an average of about 16 points a game but they win on the road by an average of 17 points. Clearly the 49ners will take you to the moon and beat you if they needed to. However, Carolina has a winning margin on the road of an average of 11.7 points a game while having a losing average of 2.7 points per game at home, go figure. According to a few of our models, we were getting mixed results, but the fairest of values that we saw for this game was at about 4 to 8 points for the is game in favor of the 49ners.

When this line originally opened up, we bought in at a half a unit at -4.5 points in favor of the 49ners. After this 9-0 victory against Washington, we saw the line move an extra half point towards -5. For entertainment purposes, we believe that -5 is the end of the line for the 49ners and wouldn’t recommend anything higher than this. Since this is week 8, the information that line makers have are strengthened as sample size expands. Since the start of the season, line makers have been giving up more than they would like since the majority of bettors have been hitting their mark this year. Regardless, the 49ners was the 2nd best thing we saw in terms of proper value.

Check back with us midweek for our regular NFL Week 8 analysis. Maybe we will have some first half/second half plays for you as well as an extra game or two that shows some value. Best of luck.

-The MoneyLine Blog

]]> The NFL: Week 7 Analysis https://themoneylineblog.com/the-nfl-week-7-analysis/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-7-analysis&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-nfl-week-7-analysis Wed, 16 Oct 2019 07:08:54 +0000 https://themoneylineblog.com/?p=408

NFL: WEEK 7

  • Rams at -3 (-2 if you can get it)
  • Saints at +3.5 (+4 if you can find it again)
  • Texans at +1

(Lines above quoted as of 12:10 am 10/16/19)

Week 7 in the NFL is the beginning of rough waters for the average sports bettor. Each year, the sportsbooks use stats from the previous year(s) strictly as a guide, to help set lines for weeks 1 through 4 of the current NFL season. Since the sample size through 4 games is small, the lines that Vegas presents are softer. By week 5 and 6, we see the lines take shape. By weeks 7 and 8, things get very tight. Don’t worry we’re here to help you strategize.

Los Angeles Rams (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons

The Rams have hit a rough patch dropping their last three straight. They are up next to play the Falcons in Atlanta who dropped their last four games as well. The difference between these two teams is that one of them is actually a solid team. Over the last 3 games, the Rams have lost by an average of 9.7 points while the Falcons have lost by an average of 12 points. In sports, the home team should have the competitive advantage due to possessing home field. However, it turns out that the LA Rams score more points and allow less points on the road than at home.

On the flipside, Atlanta continues to disappoint no matter the venue. After heavy analysis, we feel that although most places are offering the Rams on the spread at (-3), the fairest of values of the Rams should be bought at (-2). Most likely you won’t find that anywhere at the time this article was written but the number is trending downward and you may be able to find it at (-2.5) by Friday/Saturday morning.

For entertainment purposes, we would take the Rams at (-3) for 1 unit due to the fact that Atlanta just can’t be trusted. However, don’t be afraid to wait for a point value of (-2.5) to appear if you aren’t pressed to bet this game. Rams head coach, Sean McVey, is making his way back to Atlanta where he used to be an offensive coordinator. Since he’s left, the Falcons offense things haven’t been the same in Hotlanta. He is well aware of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman’s strengths and weaknesses. Look for him to exploit his knowledge of his old trio and expect the Rams to bounce back with a victory in Atlanta…besides can you see the Rams losing 4 straight?

As a secret bonus play, we like the Rams to win the first half. Atlanta usually gives up 2 touchdowns in the first half (at the very least) while the Rams give up about 10 points on average in the 1st half. Both teams score more of their points overall in the second half and they do well at trying to keep things closer than they appear to be. So look for a high scoring second half after halftime adjustments are made.

Houston Texans (+1) @ Indianapolis Colts

The Houston Texans are a chilly team. Sometimes a sweatshirt will do while other days you may need a down coat to put up with them. But as far as talent, they have it on offense. However, against AFC opponents, Houston is undefeated at 3-0 and against divisional opponents they are 1-0. Houston is another team that performs better on the road than they do at home in terms of scoring. However, they give up 4 more points per game on the road than they do at home. Since this is a divisional game, expect it to be a fight. However, our computer models like Houston as an underdog as +1. We will go a step further and say that our models like Houston to actually win by about a field goal. Depending on who you place your bets with, you could have bought into Houston at +2.5 with Draftkings on Monday morning. If you were able to land that number, congratulations, you deserve a pat on the back. The Colts are coming off their bye week, so they maybe well rested and ready to go or they maybe well rested and rusty. Regardless, for entertainment purposes: our models like Houston as an 1 point favorite (-1) to a 3 point favorite (-3) with a 58% chance of winning outright. With this being said, if you can get the Texans at fair value of -110 on the point spread of (+1) you’re getting good value. If you want to get risqué and go for the Texans to win outright on the moneyline and get better bang for your buck, go for it. Just remember in football the ball is not a perfect sphere, so one odd bounce and things may go the other way. No risk, no reward.

New Orleans Saints (+3.5) @ Chicago Bears

Who Dat? The Saints of course. Listed as a 3.5 point underdog at the time of this article, the Saints are a scrappy team with Teddy at the helm. He takes great care of the ball, safely limiting turnovers until the defense gets on the field and does their thing… allowing under 21 points a game this year no matter if they are on the road or at home (ranking 12th in points allowed on the road). Although the Bears defense is scary they are having issues producing on offense, especially at home. In two home games on the year, the Bears have averaged 9.5 points a game. But lets scrap that stat. Better yet lets scrap all of these stats and start over since each team is playing without their starting QBs. In the last 3 games, the Saints are ranked tied for 4th in points allowed with 13.3 points allowed per game. While the Bears are allowing 15 points. Teddy is holding the offense steady at 18 points a game which has propelled the Saints to the 3rd best team in the NFL.

Cutting the Fat: For entertainment purposes our computer models, see the Saints losing by 2 to 3 points. We were able to spot a line showing the Saints as a 4 point underdog (+4) at -110 on Sunday night (offered by Fanduel Sportsbook). That was a lean and tasty number. Unfortunately the folks caught on since then and has bought up the Saints with big money, thus driving this number down to (+3.5) for -125…this tells me that this number will soon be at an even +3 for the Saints by the end of the week, barring injury in practice.

For entertainment purposes…honorable mentions that didn’t make the cut:

Jacksonville Jaguars looked healthy at -3 against Cincy but Jacksonville tends to scare us from time to time. Although, Cincy maybe a sleeper to go winless this season, we really couldn’t trust either team here.

The Kansas City Chiefs were favored by 3.5 points (-3.5) on Sunday night. However, Denver is a hard place to play due to altitude…to the point where Denver’s defense is a whole 7 points better at home versus on the road. In addition, the Chiefs last 2 games in Denver (2017 and 2018) had them winning by only 3 points and 4 points. At the time of this article, you will find the Chiefs as a 3 point favorite for -115/-120. But with the Chiefs latest woes and the hideous track record of Thursday Night games, we simply couldn’t recommend this game although some guys on the staff took it for themselves.

Remember to enjoy the games this weekend.

-The MoneyLine Blog

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