Greetings,
Today we are going to take a look at the real estate sector that year to date is up 6.5%. Before we begin here let me provide you with a link to the upcoming conference in Orlando Florida on March 5-6  that features guest speaker Steve Forbes, as well as over 40 industry experts.  Real Estate Strategies.  We are not going to look at any home builders here but instead will look at some of the largest commercial real estate companies and REIT’s. Real Estate Investment Trusts are considered by many as a good way to have exposure to the industry and many pay very high dividend yields. One word of caution before we get started is that “if” and that is a big if, the Obama budget gets passed there is a huge tax increase in store for those that receive payments in the form of dividends, from the current 15% rate to over 40%.  This would hurt many stocks that investors hold because of the revenue generated by these dividends. As always, if you have any questions or would like to talk further about trading, please contact me.

Brookfield Asset Management Inc. – (BAM) – Chart  With decades of operating experience and over $68 billion of property assets under management in North and South America, Europe and Australia, Brookfield has developed an expertise in real estate investments that ranges from equity investments in commercial (office and retail), and mezzanine financing, bridge lending, and management of mortgage-backed securities.

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Annaly Capital Management Inc. – (NLY) – Chart  Founded in 1997 as a Real Estate Investment Trust, Annaly is the largest mortgage REIT listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

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Kimco Realty Corp. – (KIM) – Chart  Kimco Realty Corporation, a real estate investment trust (REIT) headquartered in New Hyde Park, N.Y., owns and operates North America’s largest portfolio of neighborhood and community shopping centers. As of December 31, 2011, the company owned interests in 946 shopping centers comprising 138 million square feet of leasable space across 44 states, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico and South America.

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Avalonbay Communities Inc. – (AVB) – Chart  AvalonBay Communities, Inc. is in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing high-quality apartment communities in the high barrier-to-entry markets of the United States. These markets are located in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, Pacific Northwest and Northern and Southern California regions of the country. The Company owns, or holds interests in, hundreds of apartment communities with over 50,000 housing units in these markets.

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Vornado Realty Trust – (VNO) – Chart  Vornado Realty Trust  is a fully-integrated real estate investment trust (REIT). Vornado is one of the largest owners and managers of commercial real estate in the United States with a portfolio of over 100 million square feet, primarily located in the New York City and Washington, DC metropolitan areas. Vornado’s core businesses include New York Office Properties, Washington, DC Office Properties, Retail Properties and Merchandise Mart Properties.

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Capstead Mortgage Corp. – (CMO) – Chart  Formed in 1985, Capstead’s experienced management team has over 80 years of combined mortgage finance industry experience. Agency-guaranteed residential mortgage securities are considered to have little, if any, credit risk, particularly given federal government support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These mortgage investments are highly liquid and can be financed with multiple funding providers through standard repurchase arrangements.

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Others in this group include:  CYS, RP, PSA, EQR, CBG

That is all for now, thank you for the visit.

Best Wishes, $$$, ET.

Equity Trader.me

“There is no security on this earth; there is only opportunity.”

Douglas MacArthur  (1880-1964);

Greetings,

First a big congratulations to the NY Giants for their come from behind, 21 – 17  victory over the Patriots on Sunday. As I watched the game I had the thought to write about it from a traders point of view, so I took note of the game and here is what we came up with. Hope you enjoy the article and maybe even find a trade you like.

There is no doubt the Super Bowl is big business with ad time on NBC Sports biggest day running at $3.5 mil. for a 30 second hit.  I thought the Chevy , “Will you be ready when the world ends?”  spot was not all that effective, and I bet that General Motors, (GM )- $26.18,  could have found a better way to blow through $14 mil. of their/our money than on a super bowl ads, But the money spent on their higher end Cadillac brand was probably worth it. I could not help but to notice the name of the stadium, Lucas Oil Stadium   the company behind the name is not publicly traded, Lucas Oil.

Of course we had the heavy hitters with multiple spots and I thought the Coca Cola Co. (KO) – $68.08  did a great job with their ads. We had the king of beers Budweiser  with a quite a few spots as well, owned by Anheuser-Busch InBev – (BUD) – $64.56 .  The Dorito’s commercials were good, Owned by PepsiCo – (PEP) – $66.66  Pepsi also did the newest version of the Coke guy trying to go unnoticed as he buys a Pepsi.  We heard from one of the better car manufacturers, Volkswagen – (VLKAY) – $33.80 ,  and Prudential Insurance – (PRU) – $59.87.  I thought that if you were going to spend this kind of money, that Ford Motor Co. – (F) – $12.79 could have come up with something new instead of the very tired Derek Jeter ones. ( maybe it is just me).  Although not publicly traded , Bridgestone Tire  which bought the Firestone brand back in 1974 for $2.6 bil. was a huge sponsor as well as Toyota Motor – (TM) – $76.47 .

After the great half time show from Madonna we heard from Time Warner Inc. – (TWX) – $38.19,    Honda Motor- (HMC) – $35.60 and a great one from Samsung Electronics – (SSNLF). PK.   We also had a few more that are not public traded companies with GoDaddy  , H & M  , and Career Builder .com

So that is how I saw the super bowl from a traders point of view. If there are any company stocks that you would like to talk about further please contact me by email. My Best Wishes, $$$, ET.  Equity Trader.me    I have my eye on Volkswagen – (VLKAY)

“There is neither happiness nor unhappiness in this world; there is merely the comparison of one state to the other.  Only a man who has felt ultimate despair is capable of feeling ultimate bliss.” Alexandre Dumas

All lenders have business models.  The part of the business model that we are going to discuss in this article in the series is what drives a particular lender’s rates and fees. All of the different types of lenders set their loan rates and fees offered to the public based on the business model created by those that run the company.  The main take away from this is to understand that each business decides what the internal climate will be as it relates to the profitability on each transaction.  Some lenders have very low profit expectations on a per loan basis, but instead focus on quantity, while others have high profitability as their goal instead of quantity.  There is nothing wrong with either business model.  Just like you can find the same item priced higher in one store while lower in another, lenders are the same way; it helps to look at lenders in this manner.

Of the different type of lenders we have been discussing, mortgage brokers, mortgage bankers, credit unions, and federal and state banks, there is no specific profit and fee range that they fit in.  I’ve seen each type of mortgage lender offer higher rates and fees than the average or lower rates and fees than the average. So, let’s bust a popular myth out there.

Myth buster – There is no truth to the generality that says a particular type of lender, broker, banker, or bank is always going to have the lowest mortgage rates and fees.

The key word is always.  Here are some generalities that you can rely on:

• All types of lenders have to play by the rules that are set up by the federal government when it comes to residential mortgage loans.
• Over 95% of all residential mortgage loans follow Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA or VA mortgage guidelines.  All of these agencies are, in some way, governed by the U.S. Federal Government.
• All lenders are required to provide you with the appropriate mortgage disclosures so you can make a detailed and accurate decision about which mortgage is right for you.
• I may take some flak for this one, but in no circumstances should you pay an application fee.  Lenders come up with all sorts of reasons as to why they have an application fee.  If they want to charge you one, go to a different lender.
• The smaller lenders tend to have either some of the lowest rates and fees or some of the highest rates and fees.
• The smaller lenders tend to have more flexibility in providing discounts or lower fees when asked.  One of the many negative aspects of the massive ”Dodd-Frank – Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act” was to make it harder for lenders to reduce their fees and rates.  It’s still possible, but much harder.
• The type of lender does not necessarily mean more competence, more trust or faster service.

In a search for the lowest rates and fees, it’s important to know that there is not one specific type of lender that has the lowest pricing.  When you’re searching for a lender for your loan it is important to speak with a number of different types of lenders.  When you do, you will want to speak with a loan officer that is licensed to provide you with rates and fees.  Once you have talked with a few loan officers, you will be able to tell which business model their lender uses as it relates to mortgage rates and fees.

The loan officer in many ways is the most important part of the transaction.  Finding a good, competent loan officer can be tricky, but it is very important.  In the next article in our series, How to Get the Lowest Mortgage Rates and Fees, we will discuss the loan officer and why they are important.  In the mean time, please read my article on how to find a good loan officer.  I hope you are finding this series beneficial, if so please leave a comment and forward to a friend.

Image: cooldesign / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Greetings,
Last week we talked about the price action we saw on silver and called a “strong buy” on SLV . I am writing to you here again today after a week that saw gold & silver advance 5% on better than average weekly volume, today we will take a closer look at the mining industry. The mining sector as a whole has started the new year with a 13% advance and many of the stocks we will talk about today are leaders in this industry group. We know that we can always get a better return on investment when we pick a stock rather than a ETF tied to the price of silver or gold, but with that greater chance of reward we also assume more risk. Long know as one of the more dangerous industries, the mining group has lots of headwind in the form of regulation & compliance, permits, environmental issues and the like as well as the inherent risks that come with mine safety.

Here is a link to the Mine Safety and Health Administration, MSHA website  where you can find data on mining industry accident reports. Even with the risks outlined above the mining industry is safer now than ever before and new technology has moved this old industry into the 21st century.

Lets take a look at some of the stocks leading this group, that as we mentioned are off to the races so far this year with a quick 4 week, 13% advance.

Yamana Gold Inc. – (AUY) – Chart  This stock sits just 3% off 52 week highs after a huge 13% move higher this week in strong volume. I believe this stock may still have more upside as well. Yamana Gold Inc. is a Canadian-based gold producer with significant gold production, gold development stage properties, exploration properties, and land positions in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Colombia. Earnings are due on February 27 and EPS growth is expected to be just 4% at 0.24 vs 0.23. it is safe to say the bar is set low here and we should keep this stock on our watch list.

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Compania de Minas Buenaventura ADS. – (BVN) – Chart  Although this stock is still 12% off its 52 week highs, it closed this past week with a healthy 13.5% gain, volume was just about average so we would like to see volume pick up a bit. Average daily volume (ADV) is just around 1 million shares. Buenaventura is Peru’s largest publicly-traded precious metals company and a major holder of mining rights in Peru. The Company is engaged in the mining, processing, development and exploration of gold, silver and other metals via wholly-owned mines, as well as through its participation in joint exploration projects. Earnings are due on March 6 with EPS growth expected to be just 1% after 3 qtrs. of double digit growth. 0.89 vs 0.88

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Barrick Gold Corp. – (ABX) – Chart  Up this week  8% on very strong weekly volume, this stock sits 12% from it 52 week high. Barrick is the gold industry leader, with a portfolio of 26 operating mines and advanced exploration and development projects located across five continents, and large land positions on some of the world’s most prolific and prospective mineral trends. Earnings are due on February 17, this company has scored 9 straight qtrs. of double digit EPS growth and this qtr. is expected to show 38% growth of $1.31 vs 0.95.

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Royal Gold Inc. – (RGLD) – Chart  This stock had a great week, up 11.5% on very strong weekly volume, it remains 10% off 52 week highs and had recently found support along its 200 day moving average (ma.) Royal Gold, Inc. owns and manages royalties and similar interests primarily on precious metals mines, with a focus on gold. The Company’s portfolio provides investors with a unique opportunity to capture value in the precious metals sector without incurring many of the costs and risks associated with mine operations. Earnings are due on February 2 with expected EPS growth of 45%, 0.48 vs 0.33. Royal has reported 8 stright qtrs. of double digit growth.

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For those of you that are like me and like looking at small cap names we have one that was on our under $10 page not long ago, it closed Friday at $12.46 after a nice weekly gain of 14.5% on better than average weekly volume. This stock sits just 7% off 52 week highs.

Richmont Mines Inc. – (RIC) – Chart  Richmont Mines is a Quebec-based gold company with over 20 years of experience in exploration, mine development and production. Richmont Mines was founded in 1981 by Jean-Guy Rivard. During the subsequent decade, the company attracted a range of public and private financing, which was used to acquire properties and carry out exploration programs. Richmont Mines has been a publicly traded company since 1984.

 As we look at the 3 month daily chart above, we can see how important the breakout above $12 is and will look to this area now as support going forward. Many times past resistance offers support once broken, the next test to the upside will the $13 level. That is all for now, and as always if you have any questions or comments please contact me.

Thank you for your visit, my best wishes, $$$, ET.

Equity Trader.me

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“Great changes may not happen right away, but with effort even the difficult may become easy.”Bill Blackman

Sensitive topic here for sure…but an important one, none the less. The scene is: you have done everything you were supposed to. You applied for a loan, provided the lender all of the necessary documents and after a month of back and forth you have received the coveted “clear to close.” Excited, you start getting ready to move. You now order the moving trucks, share with friends and family your new address, and order the appliances that are on sale. All is going well; your attorney has notified the seller that your loan has been approved and you wait with anticipation your new home. Just days before closing you receive a phone call from your lender with a simple message – your loan has been denied and we are not able to close your loan.

You think and say what everyone else in your situation does – this isn’t fair! How is this happening? What am I going to do? Who’s at fault?

Here is why it happened and what you can do to prevent this scenario from happening to you.

Around the time you applied for your loan, your lender, banker or broker will have ordered a credit report on you. This credit report was used to determine your credit worthiness in respect to the mortgage you applied for. Certain aspects of the credit report are important to the lender. Perhaps most important is the credit score. In theory, the higher your score the greater the likelihood you will make your payment. This score is calculated based on a number of factors, such as if you pay your bills on time, how much credit you have and use, and how long your credit accounts have been open.

What most people do not know, is that the lender will perform a quality review of your file just before closing, done generally 3-7 days before closing. This review will include another look at the appraisal, the loan documents you provided, re-verification of your employment status and a new credit report. During the review, if any of the items are found not to meet the standards of the loan you applied for, your loan could be denied or additional information requested.

One thing that happens all too frequently during the review process is new credit information is discovered. Often times it is the new credit you applied for or used when you ordered those appliances. That interest free deal the store was offering you can cost you your loan approval. Any new debt or changes to your credit report will affect your credit score, often times to the negative. A reduced credit score could cause you to no longer qualify for the loan you applied for.

Here are a couple of examples of items that can appear on your credit report and potentially jeopardize your loan:

• The parking ticket you forgot about or even never knew about that was just reported to the credit agency as unpaid.
• A medical bill for your child was turned over to a collection agency. Perhaps you thought insurance was going to cover it; but didn’t.
• You co-signed for a friend or family on a credit card and they just bought that big screen cinema package. Great fun for them, however, you now have $5000 more in credit card debt.
• Again, you co-signed for a friend or family member and, oops, they missed a payment and now your credit report shows a late payment.
• Shopping for furniture for your new home, you came across that great deal and decided you needed to “buy now”. No worries as they were offering no interest and no payment for a year.
• This one always amazed me when I was originating home loans; so many people wanted to buy that new car at the same time they were buying their home.

Borrowers who’s credit score is near one of the many lender thresholds are at the greatest risk. I’ve seen minor fluctuations in credit scores cause the loan application to be denied.

Here is a threefold solution to help minimize this problem:

1. Make no purchases using credit of any kind, do not apply for any credit, don’t even let anyone else order your credit report.
2. Do not pay off any collections or past due amounts unless specifically told to do so by your lender. If you are asked by the lender to pay off a debt as part of your mortgage loan approval, request from the lender for them to permit you to pay the amount at closing. Many lenders still do not realize that paying of collections, judgments and past due items that are over 6 months old can reduce your credit score. Why? Because it takes an old negative mark and turns it into a current negative mark. Credit agencies place greater weight on new or current credit information.
3. Finally, if you know you owe someone or someplace money and it is not appearing on your credit report, pay it quickly.

The mortgage industry continues to evolve and look for ways to cut mortgage losses. In my opinion, the approval process has become unfair and burdensome; many good people will suffer by paying more for their mortgage loan and others will simply not be able to buy.

I trust this article has been helpful to you. If so, please share it with your friends and subscribe to MoneyPress.com

Greetings,
We have recently received several emails from traders asking about silver and if now may be a good time to enter a trade, so today we will take a closer look at this metal from a trader and investor point of view. Silver has been a hot commodity over the last several years and since 2008 has traded from below $10 a ounce to almost $50 in April 2011, since then however silver has been in a correction as it digests a 3 year, 400% move in price. In May of 2011 and again in September 2011 silver sold off hard on heavy volume and has made a series of lower highs and lower lows in the process and currently trades 35% below those all time highs set in April. When you consider the huge price move to the upside in the last decade, a 35% decline from that high water mark is a bit easier to digest and at the current price of $31.23 it may be time to take a closer look at this precious metal.

For the purpose of this article we will use the i-Shares Silver Trust (SLV)  since hitting a 52 week low of $25.65 on December 29th SLV has put together 3 weeks of upside price action. This past week ending January 20th SLV gained just over 8% on light weekly volume, but Friday’s move of 5% came on better than average daily volume and that move has put SLV just above the 50 day moving average. So as a trader I would recommend using the SLV or what we call a paper trade, meaning you do not own the physical silver but instead own it on paper. The obvious advantage to this is liquidity as you can trade this as you would any other stock or ETF and can move in or out of the trade with the click of your mouse, unlike owning silver bars or coins that you must store and hold and then take to a dealer if you want to sell. As a trader, Friday’s price and volume action may be a bullish signal and with that said we can call it a strong buy in the $30 to $32 range  and a good place to start a position, we would then look to add to our position on a high volume break above $34.50 if we should get positive price action. As a stop loss I would use $28 as a mental stop and $27 as a absolute stop loss.

Want the best mortgage rates?  It really is easy to find them as long as you know what to look for and what questions to ask.  In this series of articles I describe what is necessary to get the best rate, costs and terms for your home loan.  We will start out with some necessary understanding of the mortgage market and go deeper with each article.  I hope you enjoy this series.

I know that many of us tend to think the mortgage industry is too complicated, but it’s not; as we explore each topic, you will see how simple the process is.  This series will continue to grow based on its natural course and the feedback received.

A key point to realize is that there are many different places to choose from but very few suppliers.  Think of it like this.  If you want a cola, you can go to hundreds of different types of stores to buy your cola, however, you only have a few choices that are the same at each place – Coke, Pepsi, and Royal Crown (RC).  The mortgage industry is very similar to this.  Thanks to our government’s continuing effort to legislate the banking industry, most of the money that is lent in the mortgage process comes from a few of the biggest players that have the backing of the Federal Reserve.

Step one – Know what type of lenders there are.  There are many different types of lenders to choose from.  Each one has a different business model and very different corporate personalities.

In an active mortgage market, all of the above participants are necessary to keep the mortgage system functioning well.  When all participants are active and healthy, there is a healthy tension between them, which helps to keep rates and costs low while quality service and speed of service high.  Right now the lending industry is not healthy.  Government reaction to the mortgage foreclosure mess has had a negative effect on two of the four major types of lenders.  The direct result of this has been reduced competition and increase in interest rates and fees.

In general all of the types of lenders we just covered above have the ability to offer the same types of loans with the same types of fees or costs.  What separates them the most is their individual business model and culture, which we will cover next week as our series continues.

Remember to subscribe to our daily email so you don’t miss out on future articles of the “How to Get the Lowest Mortgage Rates and Fees” series, some of the topics we will cover are how a loan officer affects your rate and fees, the difference between closing costs and pre-paids, what disclosures or documents to insist on receiving so you can accurately compare costs and much more.  I appreciate your comments below…

Image: Stuart Miles / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

 By now we have all heard of the tragic accident of the Costa Cruise Line and its parent company Carnival Cruises (CCL) last trade $29.60,  down 13.6% on Seven times the average daily volume.

The loss of life and the lawsuits that will follow combined with what may be a total loss of the $650 million dollar ship will leave this company with some stiff headwinds going forward as they try to start over with one less ship and perhaps a brand name that is slightly tarnished. Carnival Cruises is the largest company in the cruise industry and is expected to survive this nightmare but in the meantime the stock may very well remain under pressure in the months ahead.

We have spoke before on trading stocks during earnings season and how sometimes a smart trade is one that is made on another stock in the industry group after a good or bad earnings report as many times stocks in the same industry group will trade in the same direction as the headline stock. With that said today I would like to bring to your attention another stock in the cruise ship business that was punished by the Carnival news yesterday.

After the first full week of the new year and a higher volume distribution day in the markets on Friday after weak earnings from J P Morgan (JPM) we still found ourselves with gains for the week. As we enter the coming week that will see earnings reports start to pick up we are holding 2.5% gains on the S&P 500 and 4% gains on the NASDAQ for the calendar year 2012.

Lets take a look at some of the companies due to release earnings this week and highlight what the earnings expectations are for each company, we recently wrote on how to trade stocks during earnings season and when you have time please see related article.  I am providing links to company websites as well as a stock chart for each stock we feature and as always your comments are not only welcomed but encouraged. Best Wishes, $$$, ET.

Tuesday January 17:

TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. – (AMTD) Expected EPS growth : 4%, 0.26 vs 0.25

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