http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 21:00:13 GMT 6a33191ca6791958c5106f87 Matthew Graham Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press conference was that market movement is the most important source of information for the Fed. At the same time, the market was effectively saying that it was also fond of hearing what was on the Fed's mind, and if the Fed is going to stop sharing those thoughts, the market was going to cry about it. This certainly wasn't the whole story as the hawkish dot plot did about half the damage well before the press conference. One could also argue that some traders may have expected Warsh to do something to push back against that Hawkishness. Instead, he did very little apart from reference various task forces that would be working on several projects. In general, the lack of transparency and the absence of even a semblance of forward guidance led the market to rapidly price in a higher risk premium in both stocks and bonds. Bottom line, markets said "if you aren't going to do anything to push back on that hawkish dot plot, we're gonna go ahead and assume rate hikes are more likely."  Econ Data / Events Retail Sales (May) 0.9% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.5% prev Retail Sales Control Group MoM (May) 0.7% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.5% prev Market Movement Recap 08:33 AM Flat overnight and no reaction to data. MBS unchanged and 10yr unchanged at 4.44. 11:30 AM MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.431 02:17 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.455 03:10 PM MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.473 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 20:09:00 GMT 6a3303bc47748140ba24a1c9 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference.  Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member's assumptions about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the future if the economy continues on the expected course. "The dots" only come out every other Fed meeting, but they have a habit of causing volatile market reactions. Today's was no exception. The dots essentially show that the average Fed member now sees the Fed Funds rate at least 0.25% higher at the end of 2026 than they did back in March. This is responsible for the first big move in the bond market today. Bonds lost more ground during new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The reasons for this could be debated. Some traders may have been expecting Warsh to push back against the dot plot with a more rate-friendly tone. Others may have been disheartened at the lack of any guidance about how the Fed is interpreting incoming economic data. In general, lower transparency regarding the Fed's reaction function arguably requires traders to price in a higher risk premium. Because rates are based on bonds, and because bonds lost ground sharply, mortgage lenders ended up raising rates in the afternoon--some of them up to 3 times. When the dust settled, the average lender was back up to June 10th levels with top-tier 30yr fixed rates at 6.62%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:00:57 GMT 6a32eeeca6791958c5101901 Matthew Graham Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. 12 – 0 vote: The Committee seeks decided to achieve maximum employment and inflation maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is attentive to reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. banking system. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate Economic activity is expanding at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the evolving outlook, Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment workforce, and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. the unemployment rate has changed little. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared Inflation remains elevated relative to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee’s assessments Committee will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. deliver price stability. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 15:44:51 GMT 6a328907421e7aeef4ef19b2 Rob Chrisman Here in Honolulu, as it is in places like Florida and New York, the condo market and HOA fees are of paramount importance, as are the affordability impact of special assessments. Even though the inventory of houses for sale has steadily increased in many areas, some people want more. One idea being bantered about is changing, or eliminating, the capital gains tax on the sale of primary residences. Money talks, and as this veteran LO points out, a housing crash won’t fix affordability. A crackdown on H-1B visas is causing Indian buyers to leave the Dallas housing market, meaning skilled professionals who transformed the region now face exile. That story and the following ones offer a look into the challenges facing homeowners and renters around the world, from San Francisco to the United Kingdom. The impact of demographics on lenders will be one the topics on today’s Mortgage Matters at 11AM PT with Sue Meitner, CMB, the President of Centennial Lending Group (a division of SMP) and sponsored by Lenders One. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Hear an interview with Addy AI’s Michael Vandi on importance of AI in improving efficiency and competitiveness, especially as a productivity tool for originators.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 13:40:08 GMT 6a32b1fca6791958c50fa506 Matthew Graham So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail Sales report that speaks to ongoing economic expansion at a faster-than-expected pace. Both of those things argue for something other than a modest rally in bonds, yet that is exactly what we're seeing. If it weren't for the absence of any major response in other markets, we might wonder what bonds were smoking, or whether they're waiting for bigger news. On that note, the whole market actually is waiting to see how it feels after a Fed Day with a new Fed Chair. Attempts to quantify that anxiety are subjective, but it's objectively true that today's Fed announcement is much more highly consequential than recent examples, simply due to feeling out Warsh. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06162026 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 20:24:27 GMT 6a31bf68a6791958c50df89f Matthew Graham Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%--a resistance level that's been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don't predict the future, but they can provide a framework for measuring the pace of change in trading levels. If bonds are weaker in the morning, it would act as confirmation that the initial response to the Iran peace deal has played out. In addition, there's potential volatility surrounding the Fed announcement, almost exclusively reserved for feeling out any visible shifts from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 25.5K vs -- f'cast, 29K prev Building Permits (May) 1.413M vs 1.42M f'cast, 1.423M prev Housing starts number mm (May) 1.177M vs 1.43M f'cast, 1.465M prev Import prices mm (May) 1.9% vs 1.0% f'cast, 1.9% prev Market Movement Recap 08:52 AM Stronger overnight as Europe trades the peace deal. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4bps at 4.438 11:55 AM Best levels. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.428 03:03 PM MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.425 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06162026 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 19:56:00 GMT 6a31abd23b093263e80dc8d2 Matthew Graham Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some analysts think oil prices have already gotten ahead of themselves in that regard. If those analysts are right, it could limit any additional momentum toward lower rates until peace is on more solid footing. Tomorrow brings the next Fed rate announcement. Markets foresee zero chance of a hike or a cut, but will nonetheless be paying attention to new Fed Chair Warsh's first press conference.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06162026 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 15:55:19 GMT 6a318020a6791958c50d797d Matthew Graham European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets.  Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06162026 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 14:55:52 GMT 6a3143a0e325c6b7cfbf3e13 Rob Chrisman Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and campaigning to keep their jobs. In other words, don’t look for much from Congress until January. Certainly, no politician wants to cut spending despite the deficit continuing to escalate. What would you tell your kids if their incomes weren’t doing much but they were ramping up their spending? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Interview with TrustEngine’s Dave Savage on why the mortgage professionals who will thrive are those who obsess over delivering a modern, technology-enabled consumer experience, embrace AI to scale advice and efficiency, and focus on educating and advocating.) Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:15:36 GMT 6a306b90a6791958c50b8ae5 Matthew Graham Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop.  Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are close enough to the best recent levels to say the overall market reaction has been fairly even keeled. We'd also expect more bullishness among bond traders when the deal is officially official (possibly after Friday's scheduled meeting in Switzerland). Finally, bonds could be holding back a bit to see how Wednesday's Fed announcement goes.  Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing (Jun) 5.70 vs 14 f'cast, 19.60 prev Industrial Production (May) 0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM Nice rally overnight on confirmation of U.S./Iran peace deal with scheduled signing. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.3 bps at 4.452 12:35 PM MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.461 03:21 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.463 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full