http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 20:42:40 GMT 6a234398a6791958c5f69c4f Matthew Graham At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon, but traders will be a bit more interested in labor market data going forward. Econ Data / Events Non Farm Payrolls (May) 172K vs 85K f'cast, 115K prev Participation Rate (May) 61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev Unemployment rate mm (May) 4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev Market Movement Recap 08:38 AM Big selling after jobs report. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.533 10:46 AM MBS down 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.541 04:27 PM MBS down just over half a point and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.539 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18:29:00 GMT 6a2337fedd4904e35ba017f6 Matthew Graham Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report not only crushed expectations, but it revised the past 2 reports sharply higher as well. The net effect is that the labor market looks more like it's finding its footing (possibly even accelerating) and less like it is still in the downtrend that characterized the post-covid normalization.  If all that was confusing, here's the simple version. More people got jobs than expected and the market didn't like it because it removes any argument in favor of the Fed cutting rates. Fed rates don't equal mortgage rates, but Fed rate expectations for the future cause mortgage rate movement in the present (and Treasury movement, and stock market movement, etc.).  On a bright note, even after today's rout, the average lender remains under the highs seen on May 19th. The Iran war is still the most important input for rates, and a confirmed peace deal would still provide relief.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/06052026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18:25:00 GMT 6a231508937f0b84f639b529 Matthew Graham Mortgage applications eased again last week even as borrowing costs moved lower, suggesting that modest rate relief was not enough to bring borrowers back in force. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 29. The decline was led by refinance activity, which slipped 2% from the previous week. Refinance demand remained 20% higher than the same period one year ago, however, underscoring that activity is still running above 2025’s pace even as it softens week to week. Purchase demand also pulled back, though the move was more modest. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 3% week over week and was still 7% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.57% from 6.65%, but the drop was not enough to spark a meaningful pickup in demand. MBA’s Joel Kan said easing energy prices tied to developments in the Middle East helped push rates slightly lower, though “the retreat in rates... did not lead to an increase in mortgage applications.” Kan added that purchase applications were still ahead of last year’s pace, but were at their slowest weekly level since April, while refinance activity was at its weakest since last June. He also noted that the 30-year fixed rate eased to 6.57%, while the 5-year ARM rate edged higher, reflecting a flattening yield curve. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14:53:57 GMT 6a22c3229619d8f06b522546 Rob Chrisman Today we’re going to learn about the facts of life. Trivia-loving basketball facts’ fans know that this is the first time the NY Knicks have led in the finals since the night of OJ’s White Bronco car chase. Homeowner’s insurance has become the “you can’t avoid it and you can’t afford it” fact of life for some homeowners in some areas. Rate is selling yoga pants. The increase in credit union’s mortgage activities is a fact and unmistakable, and you can bet CUs will continue to press their “resi” lending advantages. Lastly, and it’s a fact that people in our biz enjoy following money around, every time someone in Europe taps a card at a cafe in Lyon or a pharmacy in Munich, the transaction data leaves the continent. The data flows through servers in the United States, is processed by Visa or Mastercard, and then goes back to Europe. The money moves but the data stays somewhere in America. We’re talking about $24 trillion in annual transaction volume through those two networks. Card payments represent 56 percent of all cashless transactions in the EU. Virtually none of it runs on European infrastructure! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian and the Experian Verify Hub. The platform brings manual submissions in-house and consolidates post-submission activities into a single environment, aiming to provide more streamlined access, faster insights, and a more cohesive user experience. Today’s has an interview with MeridianLink's Larry Katz on how to simplify the complexity behind lending while empowering financial institutions to focus on what matters most: the people and communities they serve.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14:08:47 GMT 6a22e704a6791958c5f5e094 Matthew Graham Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well.  Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll count has been higher since Fall 2025. This is also apparent in the charts and it can be partially (maybe fully?) explained by the ongoing drop in survey response rates, both for consumers businesses (note the BLS data on response rates only runs through Jan/Feb). Meanwhile, the bond market left no doubt that it is more than willing to react to econ data if that data is important enough. 10yr yields are up 5.5bps instantly and MBS are down almost half a point. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:12:53 GMT 6a21eb10a6791958c5f41cd5 Matthew Graham Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm. Friday brings the jobs report. While it hasn't been as big of a flashpoint recently, we'd never rule out a reaction in the event of a big beat/miss. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (May)/30 225K vs 213K f'cast, 215K prev Market Movement Recap 08:42 AM Decently stronger overnight and no drama so far. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.455 11:34 AM Sideways so far and just a hair weaker.  MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.465 03:31 PM Treasuries near weakest levels but 10yr still down 2.5bps at 4.471. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 19:13:00 GMT 6a21d16af413a6d55c9799c2 Matthew Graham After hitting long-term highs on May 19th, mortgage rates dropped somewhat quickly by May 26th. Ever since then, they've been moving back and forth in a very narrow range. Today's movement happened to be the good kind with the average lender cutting top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.03%. As always, keep in mind that mortgages are most commonly offered in 0.125% increments. When our daily rate index changes by only 0.03%, it's because we are also measuring the underlying costs associated with any given rate and extrapolating the relative impact on interest rates. To use a crude example, let's consider two different hypothetical rate quote options yesterday and today. Yesterday 6.625% at a cost of $12 upfront 6.50% at a cost of $24 upfront Today 6.625% at a cost of $9 upfront 6.50% at a cost of $21 upfront Now pretend you only have $15 to spend for closing costs. You still can't afford to buy your rate down to 6.5%, and you'll still be choosing the 6.625% quote. But while the interest rate portion of your quote didn't change, the actual interest cost improved.  Our index captures and expresses these improvements in a single number.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 15:52:43 GMT 6a21720b704c51f58f75f5c3 Rob Chrisman Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services There’s been plenty of chatter lately about lenders trying to rebuild realtor referral pipelines. One company may have found a different angle. Inside Real Estate (yes, the company that bought BoomTown) has quietly launched a new lead solution designed specifically for lenders focused on agent relationships. Consumers enter looking for both financing guidance and help finding a home, creating opportunities for lenders to engage early in the process and strengthen agent partnerships. Several participating lenders have reportedly received qualified applications within days of launch, while also generating new conversations with referral partners. BoldTrail already powers lead generation and nurture for the largest real estate brands and is the chosen partner for more than 400k agents and 14k LOs nationwide. One catch: markets are exclusive… Might be worth checking if your market is still open. Schedule a call or Email/text Mike Ensch at 562-644-2373. Are you making the most of every borrower relationship? Could your retention strategy be working harder for your business? In today’s market, retention takes more than a first-lien mortgage strategy. Lenders looking to strengthen long-term borrower value are turning to HELOCs and HELOANs to support growth across market cycles. Join FirstClose VP of Client Success Andria Lightfoot and Optimal Blue PPE Solution Specialist Cheri Wolfe on June 10 at noon CT for a webinar on building a smarter retention strategy through home equity lending. You’ll learn why these products matter, how pricing consistency can support scalable execution, and how originators can identify opportunities at the point of sale. Register now to strengthen your retention strategy and drive more value from every borrower relationship. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 13:14:33 GMT 6a2188a0a6791958c5f35605 Matthew Graham The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR.  Bond yields and oil prices had already fallen modestly up to that point, but more than doubled the overnight rally after that. Yields are thus starting the day roughly 4bps lower, perfectly erasing the entirety of Wednesday's losses. Jobless Claims had no impact at 8:30am ET. An hour earlier, Challenger Layoffs possibly moved the needle microscopically, but it's just as likely that the ongoing drop in oil prices did the trick. There's no other big ticket data for the day, so we're headline watching and waiting for Friday's jobs report. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06032026 Wed, 03 Jun 2026 19:47:12 GMT 6a2093b4a6791958c5f19739 Matthew Graham Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, Iran struck back against various U.S. and allied sites, allegedly in response to U.S. strikes on Iranian sites. Peace prospects take an obvious hit in response to these escalations and financial markets remain willing to react accordingly. Oil prices were already moving up to the highest levels in more than a week in the overnight session and that momentum peaked at 6am ET. Treasury yields followed and then stayed broadly sideways for the duration of the domestic session. In the bigger picture, 10s are well within the 4.43-4.51 range that dominated last week. War headline sensitivity continues accounting for 90% of forward-looking volatility risk while econ data rounds out the rest.  Econ Data / Events ADP jobs (May) 122K vs 117K f'cast, 109K prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (May) 54.5 vs 53.8 f'cast, 53.6 prev ISM Services Employment (May) 47.9 vs -- f'cast, 48.0 prev ISM Services New Orders (May) 57.3 vs -- f'cast, 53.5 prev ISM Services Prices (May) 71.3 vs -- f'cast, 70.7 prev Market Movement Recap 08:17 AM Moderately weaker overnight on renewed Iran war hostilities.  Not much reaction to ADP data. 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.49 and MBS down a quarter point 10:17 AM modest improvement after ISM data, but only in Treasuries. 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.476 and MBS still down a quarter point 11:45 AM weakest levels with MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.498 02:37 PM Sideways at weaker levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.489 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full