http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:15:36 GMT 6a306b90a6791958c50b8ae5 Matthew Graham Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop.  Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are close enough to the best recent levels to say the overall market reaction has been fairly even keeled. We'd also expect more bullishness among bond traders when the deal is officially official (possibly after Friday's scheduled meeting in Switzerland). Finally, bonds could be holding back a bit to see how Wednesday's Fed announcement goes.  Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing (Jun) 5.70 vs 14 f'cast, 19.60 prev Industrial Production (May) 0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM Nice rally overnight on confirmation of U.S./Iran peace deal with scheduled signing. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.3 bps at 4.452 12:35 PM MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.461 03:21 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.463 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:51:00 GMT 6a3059022c02715b2fee3db5 Matthew Graham The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month.  For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.  In other words, we are in solid shape in the context of the last month, but still in an elevated range.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 15:26:18 GMT 6a2ff1583b3c697b5b933f5c Rob Chrisman This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, "I rob banks because that's where the money is." Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the collapse of a condominium property management company. Another headline is making the rounds where $17 million in escrow funds disappeared overnight: a Palm Beach law firm sued a bank over a cyber-attack. Ginnie Mae has gained a recent reputation for ratcheting up its cyber security. While companies are focused on security, MLOs have their eye on trends and demographics, and National MI’s Spring 2026 Economic Market Snapshot has its 2026 rate outlook coming in at 6 percent and higher on average, is seeing nearly half of buyers ages 45–59 put less than 20 percent down (leveraging cash or betting on market appreciation?) and first-time buyer activity that rose during February’s rate dip. Yup, don’t bet your career on 30-year mortgage rates in the 5’s. See the full Economic Market Snapshot. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. After a period largely out of the public spotlight, Ally Carty returns to the industry conversation to discuss her transition from Guild Mortgage to SoFi and what she learned from stepping back. She reflects on burnout, the pressures of building a personal brand, and why authenticity - not algorithms - remains the foundation of effective content and leadership.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 14:07:06 GMT 6a301604a6791958c50ae601 Matthew Graham Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a "done deal" from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 19:34:24 GMT 6a2c6db0a6791958c505e82e Matthew Graham Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd expect a much bigger reaction to an official signing--something that could happen in a matter of days or continue to be punted indefinitely. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Jun) 48.9 vs 46 f'cast, 44.8 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Jun) 4.6% vs -- f'cast, 4.8% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Jun) 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.9% prev U Mich conditions (Jun) 48.4 vs 46.2 f'cast, 45.8 prev Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Just a hair weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.483 10:03 AM Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.495 10:48 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.503 01:00 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.482 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:51:00 GMT 6a2c56f5157044030467e538 Matthew Graham Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.75%. This week's resilience is almost entirely due to progress toward peace in the Iran war. If a peace deal becomes official, there's more room for improvement.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/06122026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:45:00 GMT 6a2c54cb157044030467e536 Matthew Graham Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate volatility. Purchase demand also moved higher. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7% week over week and was 4% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.60% from 6.57%, but borrowers still found pockets of opportunity as markets continued to react to developments in the Middle East. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni said mortgage rates were volatile last week, noting that “while the average rate was up slightly,” both refinance and purchase applications rebounded following the holiday week. Fratantoni added that the 30-year fixed rate now stands at 6.60%, while refinance and purchase activity each recovered from the prior week’s holiday-affected pace. Adjustable-rate mortgage activity also edged higher. The ARM index increased 12% over the week, and ARM share rose to 8.6% from 8.5%. Meanwhile, the refinance share of mortgage activity climbed to 40.2% from 38.0%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/06122026-existing-home-sales-nar-inventory-prices-appr Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:25:00 GMT 6a2c506c324dc8494117df97 Matthew Graham Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noting that sales reached their strongest pace since December. He said improving affordability is helping drive the momentum, adding that mortgage rates remain below last year’s level and are roughly in line with the long-term historical average. Inventory continued to improve in May, though supply remains relatively tight by historical standards. Total housing inventory rose to 1.55 million units , up 3.3% from April and 0.6% from a year earlier, representing a 4.5-month supply of homes. Home prices pushed to a fresh record high in May, underscoring still-solid demand against a backdrop of limited supply. The median existing-home price climbed to $429,300 , up 1.3% from a year ago and marking the 35th consecutive month of annual price gains. Affordability also improved year-over-year, with the Housing Affordability Index rising to 105.6 from 97.5 a year earlier. Yun said income gains are still outpacing home-price growth in most parts of the country, helping keep buyers in the market despite rates ticking up from earlier this year. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 15:48:16 GMT 6a2bfd8bad321c89d2a07771 Rob Chrisman Every time I use my credit card at the supermarket it can impact my credit score which were invented in 1958. What might be the credit score of the United States with its $1.78 trillion deficit in 2025? Gas stations and supermarkets are two daily places where we see inflation. Trader Joes, with its 630+ locations, is known for many things, not the least of which is its flowers and their prices. “Shrinkflation” has hit the chain, and anyone who has purchased flowers lately know that the bunches have gone down from, say, 12 flowers to 8. Either raise prices or make portions smaller… Yes, inflation is a problem, and lenders should know that, although the Fed doesn’t set mortgages rates, few, if any, experts predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates this year. That would add fuel to the inflationary pressures being created by both another foreign war and a deep-in-the-red federal budget that seemingly no one is concerned about balancing. I remember when the Republicans stood for fiscal restraint, but does anyone in politics care about the flood of newly created U.S. Treasury debt or reducing spending? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX. From application to underwriting to post-close, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with The Disciplined Investor’s Andrew Horowitz on how investors assess what assets to invest in, and a portfolio manager’s perspective on the current economic environment, and risk diversification as it pertains to MBS.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 13:34:27 GMT 6a2c1950a6791958c50540d9 Matthew Graham Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some specifics of the peace deal, including the U.S. withdrawing forces from the area. Bonds then began selling as various push-back headlines popped up. Deal not completely confirmed. No location determined. Deal still under review. No signing day confirmed. etc... With nothing meaty on the calendar and no final signing even rumored to be in the cards until next week, we'll at least the next 3 days waiting for any legitimate rejection of the peace deal claims. So far, Iran's responses have fallen short of previous rejections. Therefore, the market is pretty sure we're close, and most of yesterday's gains are intact. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full