http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06252026 Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:27:01 GMT 6a3d9004a6791958c520ab72 Matthew Graham Mostly Holding Yesterday's Big Gains Bonds began the day in modestly weaker territory, but not weak enough to take 10yr yields above the 4.42% technical level. That was a notable development even before considering subsequent movement. The 8:30am PCE inflation data made room for a friendly reversal with modest losses being replaced by modest improvement. Bonds ultimately weren't able to hang onto the stronger levels seen in the morning with gradual selling in the late AM hours and another little pop of weakness following headlines that Iran had attacked a cargo ship in The Strait (not a U.S. ship, or the reaction would likely have been bigger). Bottom line: today failed to place an exclamation point on yesterday's rally, but it still wasn't a question mark. The only caveat is that quarter-end volatility is still a risk between now and Tuesday. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Jun)/13 1821.0K vs 1800K f'cast, 1810K prev Core CapEx (May) 1.6% vs 0.6% f'cast, -1.1% prev Core PCE (m/m) (May) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PCE (y/y) (May) 3.4% vs 3.4% f'cast, 3.3% prev Durable goods (May) -4.5% vs -4.5% f'cast, 7.9% prev GDPQ1 2.1% vs 1.6% f'cast, 0.5% prev Jobless Claims (Jun)/20 215.0K vs 225K f'cast, 226K prev PCE (y/y) (May) 4.1% vs 4.1% f'cast, 3.8% prev PCE prices (m/m) (May) 0.4% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.4% prev Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM Decent gains after PCE comes in on target. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.375 11:00 AM MBS up an eighth and 10yr down just under 1bp at 4.379 01:41 PM MBS still up an eighth but 10yr now down only 0.3bps at 4.384 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06252026 Thu, 25 Jun 2026 17:45:00 GMT 6a3d6aa68a4dd6d6cf58e804 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they've been since May 14th.  Today's improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday's heavy lifting as something other than a freak coincidence. The only word of caution is that the last few weeks of any given quarter can see elevated volatility in a random pattern due to considerations in the trading world (mortgages are ultimately based on trading levels in the bond market). In terms of nuts and bolts, bonds got today's modest boost after PCE inflation data came in on target. This doesn't seem like something that should spark a reaction, but the "target" is merely a median forecast. Some traders may have been expecting hotter inflation and were thus willing to buy a few bonds when those fears didn't materialize.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06252026 Thu, 25 Jun 2026 15:18:22 GMT 6a3d229cae2f637ae68bac1f Rob Chrisman Around the country, originators seem less focused on the housing bill signing ceremony postponement than on “opportunity.” There are opportunities, but not for every LO. There is the opportunity (and goal) of senior management to make their company immune from economic and world political turmoil. There is the opportunity to anchor the business to things that you can control, not to things that you can’t… like rates. Yesterday at the Mastermind Summit, Ryan Grant observed, “MLOs have the opportunity to hand a potential borrower a pre-approval letter in minutes but then explain to that borrower, ‘Here’s why that’s not enough.’” There’s always the opportunity to look at other products. For example, a "Renovation HELOC Index" was launched. There are opportunities. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global data, analytics, and technology company, helps mortgage lenders gain the borrower and market insights they need to improve efficiency and make accurate decisions. Access differentiated consumer credit data, powerful consumer and market insights, and income and employment data from The Work Number. Today’s has an interview with Alston & Bird's Stephen Ornstein on all things RESPA, as well as how regulation needs to be improved for the modern times we live in.) 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Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06252026 Thu, 25 Jun 2026 12:59:01 GMT 6a3d349ca6791958c51ff613 Matthew Graham The PCE price index may be a less timely report than CPI/PPI when it comes to measuring inflation in the U.S., but it's more thorough and has stronger implications for Fed policy. Traders were apparently braced for today's number to be a bit hotter. Bonds rallied moderately after core monthly PCE came in as-expected at 0.3%. Annual inflation is running at 4.1% at the headline level, and 3.4% at the core level (both in line with expectations. Bonds were a few bps higher in yield before the data and are now a few bps lower heading into the 9am hour. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:52:24 GMT 6a3c4460a6791958c51e4f1c Matthew Graham What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with the S&P up 20% as recently at June 16th. AI-adjacent stocks were up over 50%. Bonds lost ground over the same time. That means the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio targets were thrown way out of whack, at times approaching a 70/30 balance. Gigantic money managers (insurance/pension funds and foreign investment funds) take the last few weeks of a quarter to get that balance back to 60/40. This is accomplished via selling stocks, buying bonds, or both. In today's case it was both, but primarily the "buying bonds" part. If the math is so cut and dried, why can't the market accurately price it in ahead of time (after all, it was being talked about)? Ultimately, rebalancing flows are only a small fraction of trading volume. For instance, the stock selling in early June was viewed as early rebalancing tradeflows. This stuff doesn't adhere to a set schedule, so it's only truly obvious in hindsight. Unfortunately, it doesn't speak to a material shift in bond buying demand going forward--just an accounting adjustment in response to the past. Econ Data / Events New Home Sales (May) 0.58M vs 0.64M f'cast, 0.622M prev Market Movement Recap 09:20 AM MBS up nearly 3/8ths and 10yr down 6.6bps at 4.432 11:33 AM MBS up nearly half a point and 10yr down 9.1bps at 4.407 02:43 PM MBS up half a point and 10yr down almost 10bps at 4.401 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 18:52:00 GMT 6a3c291eb1321553efbc30ef Matthew Graham Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn't hurt that oil prices continue declining as bond demand has frequently benefited from the lower implied inflation. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell 0.10% to 6.55--just a hair above June 16th levels of 6.54%. Before that, you'd have to go back to May 14th to see anything lower.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 15:46:41 GMT 6a3bcf7e920126a2f1700934 Rob Chrisman “Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” It’s 107 F here in Las Vegas. Some would say, “It’s summer, what do you expect?” (No one expected 40 people to die in France trying to escape the heat.) Lenders and servicers are wondering, if push comes to shove about A/C in homes or supplying a local data center with electricity, who will win. My bet is whoever has the money. Your company, and family, has money, and criminals want it. (The term “bad actors” seems weak.) SIFMA’s 26th Annual AML Conference focused on the most pressing issues in financial crimes compliance, something no company can afford to do without. In a different type of affordability, a link for the new JPMorganChase policy brief (on practical steps states and cities can take to increase housing supply and bring down costs) in yesterday’s Commentary is included above for those who would like to read it. (Using examples from across the country, the brief shows how different places are testing new models to support innovations in homebuilding.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global data, analytics, and technology company, helps mortgage lenders gain the borrower and market insights they need to improve efficiency and make accurate decisions. Access differentiated consumer credit data, powerful consumer and market insights, and income and employment data from The Work Number. Today’s has an interview with Spring EQ's Reno Heine on differentiating oneself in the increasingly competitive home equity and non-QM markets, how technology and AI are shaping growth, and practical advice for brokers seeking new business opportunities.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 13:34:46 GMT 6a3beb50a6791958c51d9dad Matthew Graham Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But more than half of the oil rally was over before Treasuries began rallying. There was an obvious and uncommonly large volume spike in Treasuries around 7:50am ET. Oil was still falling at the time. It likely contributed to the bond buying, but not enough that we'd give it primary credit. The nature of the Treasury rally is highly suggestive of massive accounts partaking in quarter-end rebalancing (just a bigger version of month-end trading). Despite the surge, yields are only now getting back to the same old 4.42% technical resistance level that's blocked further progress since late May. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06232026 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 20:17:37 GMT 6a3af8bca6791958c51bedc5 Matthew Graham Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowest for any day in weeks and the lowest for a Tuesday in several months. The economic calendar was effectively empty and news/headlines had no discernible impact. There was token improvement in the AM hours but that merely served to keep yields in an increasingly narrow consolidation pattern that's been underway for over a month. Market Movement Recap 08:38 AM MBS up roughly an eighth of a point and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.486. Heavy selling in stocks may be helping 11:50 AM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.478 02:35 PM Off best levels. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.493 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06232026 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:31:00 GMT 6a3ae02eea71841b4ad94dc0 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don't always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index. When this happens, it's often able to be explained by the timing of intraday volatility in the bond market and that's generally the case this time around.  Simply put, yesterday morning's best levels lined up with this morning's weakest levels even though the bulk of today's trading took place in moderately stronger territory. There was no major intraday volatility tied to any news headlines or economic reports. Tomorrow is also fairly quiet on the scheduled data front, but the calendar heats up a bit on Thursday morning.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full