http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 19:52:24 GMT 6a3c4460a6791958c51e4f1c Matthew Graham What's Up With Today's Big Rally? (Spoiler Alert: Quarter-End Rebalancing) Stocks went on a tear in Q2 with the S&P up 20% as recently at June 16th. AI-adjacent stocks were up over 50%. Bonds lost ground over the same time. That means the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio targets were thrown way out of whack, at times approaching a 70/30 balance. Gigantic money managers (insurance/pension funds and foreign investment funds) take the last few weeks of a quarter to get that balance back to 60/40. This is accomplished via selling stocks, buying bonds, or both. In today's case it was both, but primarily the "buying bonds" part. If the math is so cut and dried, why can't the market accurately price it in ahead of time (after all, it was being talked about)? Ultimately, rebalancing flows are only a small fraction of trading volume. For instance, the stock selling in early June was viewed as early rebalancing tradeflows. This stuff doesn't adhere to a set schedule, so it's only truly obvious in hindsight. Unfortunately, it doesn't speak to a material shift in bond buying demand going forward--just an accounting adjustment in response to the past. Econ Data / Events New Home Sales (May) 0.58M vs 0.64M f'cast, 0.622M prev Market Movement Recap 09:20 AM MBS up nearly 3/8ths and 10yr down 6.6bps at 4.432 11:33 AM MBS up nearly half a point and 10yr down 9.1bps at 4.407 02:43 PM MBS up half a point and 10yr down almost 10bps at 4.401 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 18:52:00 GMT 6a3c291eb1321553efbc30ef Matthew Graham Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn't hurt that oil prices continue declining as bond demand has frequently benefited from the lower implied inflation. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell 0.10% to 6.55--just a hair above June 16th levels of 6.54%. Before that, you'd have to go back to May 14th to see anything lower.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 15:46:41 GMT 6a3bcf7e920126a2f1700934 Rob Chrisman “Why did the Dalai Lama go to Las Vegas? Because he loves Tibet.” It’s 107 F here in Las Vegas. Some would say, “It’s summer, what do you expect?” (No one expected 40 people to die in France trying to escape the heat.) Lenders and servicers are wondering, if push comes to shove about A/C in homes or supplying a local data center with electricity, who will win. My bet is whoever has the money. Your company, and family, has money, and criminals want it. (The term “bad actors” seems weak.) SIFMA’s 26th Annual AML Conference focused on the most pressing issues in financial crimes compliance, something no company can afford to do without. In a different type of affordability, a link for the new JPMorganChase policy brief (on practical steps states and cities can take to increase housing supply and bring down costs) in yesterday’s Commentary is included above for those who would like to read it. (Using examples from across the country, the brief shows how different places are testing new models to support innovations in homebuilding.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global data, analytics, and technology company, helps mortgage lenders gain the borrower and market insights they need to improve efficiency and make accurate decisions. Access differentiated consumer credit data, powerful consumer and market insights, and income and employment data from The Work Number. Today’s has an interview with Spring EQ's Reno Heine on differentiating oneself in the increasingly competitive home equity and non-QM markets, how technology and AI are shaping growth, and practical advice for brokers seeking new business opportunities.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 13:34:46 GMT 6a3beb50a6791958c51d9dad Matthew Graham Bonds spend most of the night trading sideways to slightly stronger. Oil prices fell sharply, making it tempting to conclude that's the reason that 10yr yields were almost 7bps lower at 9am. But more than half of the oil rally was over before Treasuries began rallying. There was an obvious and uncommonly large volume spike in Treasuries around 7:50am ET. Oil was still falling at the time. It likely contributed to the bond buying, but not enough that we'd give it primary credit. The nature of the Treasury rally is highly suggestive of massive accounts partaking in quarter-end rebalancing (just a bigger version of month-end trading). Despite the surge, yields are only now getting back to the same old 4.42% technical resistance level that's blocked further progress since late May. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06232026 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 20:17:37 GMT 6a3af8bca6791958c51bedc5 Matthew Graham Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowest for any day in weeks and the lowest for a Tuesday in several months. The economic calendar was effectively empty and news/headlines had no discernible impact. There was token improvement in the AM hours but that merely served to keep yields in an increasingly narrow consolidation pattern that's been underway for over a month. Market Movement Recap 08:38 AM MBS up roughly an eighth of a point and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.486. Heavy selling in stocks may be helping 11:50 AM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.478 02:35 PM Off best levels. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.493 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06232026 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:31:00 GMT 6a3ae02eea71841b4ad94dc0 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don't always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index. When this happens, it's often able to be explained by the timing of intraday volatility in the bond market and that's generally the case this time around.  Simply put, yesterday morning's best levels lined up with this morning's weakest levels even though the bulk of today's trading took place in moderately stronger territory. There was no major intraday volatility tied to any news headlines or economic reports. Tomorrow is also fairly quiet on the scheduled data front, but the calendar heats up a bit on Thursday morning.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06232026 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 15:44:33 GMT 6a3a7bb12d7b040e5a818be3 Rob Chrisman Yesterday I published a link to Pennymac Policy Pulse, a newsletter tracking key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. The link went to an old version; above is the link to the most current. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global data, analytics, and technology company, helps mortgage lenders gain the borrower and market insights they need to improve efficiency and make accurate decisions. Access differentiated consumer credit data, powerful consumer and market insights, and income and employment data from The Work Number. Today’s has an interview with HELIX’s Carl Markman and Frank Perugini on improving borrower and loan officer experiences, accelerating loan processing, and growth in some of the fastest-expanding segments of the mortgage industry.) Broker and Correspondent Credit and Verification Products For decades, credit scoring was treated as a fixed input. Today, lenders have an opportunity to think differently. With score choice advancing and modern models leveraging trended data, mortgage risk assessment is moving beyond static snapshots toward a more predictive view of borrower behavior. TransUnion® is focused on helping lenders prepare for this evolution responsibly, through trusted data, advanced analytics and scalable, API‑driven solutions that integrate into existing workflows. Learn more about what this shift means for cost, competition and decisioning. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06232026 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 13:58:31 GMT 6a3a9faca6791958c51b3def Matthew Graham Yesterday's most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid-morning stock selling failed to benefit bonds, but that's far from a regular correlation these days. In fact, the stock/bond correlation is often reversed when the market is adjusting Fed rate expectations. Today's trading session has seen some re-coupling with yields/oil/stocks all falling together. Some of the bond-specific weakness could have been driven by the official launch of SpaceX's big corporate bond, and there's been a heavy slate of corporate issuance in June so far in general. We can also expect random tradeflows in multiple market sectors simply due to it being late June and money managers being required to buy/sell in order to rebalance portfolios to account for recent market movement. Despite all of the above, bonds are trading in a boring consolidation pattern with this morning's little rally adhering to a descending ceiling.   Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06222026 Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:49:38 GMT 6a39ae44a6791958c5199890 Matthew Graham What's Up With Bonds Decoupling From Oil, Etc.? On the average trading day in the past few months, if oil prices were down, and especially if other bond markets were rallying, U.S. bonds were probably rallying too.  Today was the opposite and there are no glaringly obvious reasons. It's the sort of trading session where analysts must go hunting for narratives to fit the unexpected trading action. The quarry of such hunts is fairly limited. There's the notion of an "ongoing reaction to last week's Fed announcement" (which we don't love considering there was already a friendly bounce on Thursday) and from there things get even less concrete, though not necessarily wrong. The upcoming Treasury auction cycle could indeed be causing some hesitation to buy at the start of the week. There's also some buzz surrounding military re-provisioning, which continues to imply ever-higher government debt issuance (a double whammy on auction week).  Either way, the recent range remained easily intact, so while it's a bummer for today, it's not exactly an emergency.  Market Movement Recap 08:51 AM Weaker over the weekend. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.493 12:23 PM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.508 03:41 PM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.508 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06222026 Mon, 22 Jun 2026 19:57:00 GMT 6a3997f0832c678f20eba443 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday's levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn't a big range in the bigger picture, but it does leave rates near 10-month highs. The move is also a bit counterintuitive given developments in other markets and typical correlations. For instance, On almost any other recent trading day, if oil prices and European bond yields are both moving lower (they are), so are U.S. bond yields and rates.  The disconnect may be as simple as an ongoing reaction to last week's Fed announcement which confirmed that investors need to brace for a potentially higher rate path in the future and--at the very least--less transparency about how that rate path may evolve. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full